000
FXHW60 PHFO 051330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTH. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH
ONLY LIGHT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER US. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THIS TROUGH
HAS LED TO 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2MB ACROSS THE STATE. DESPITE
THE PRESSURE FALLS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BEEN STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...DISPLACING THIS LOW AND
HELPING TO STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. AS THIS HIGH BUILDS AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...WE WILL SEE
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS NEAR 6-7KFT
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THE HILO SOUNDING AGAIN SHOWS A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING ABOVE 800MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RANGE FROM 1.16 AT HILO TO 1.41 AT LIHUE. THE POES AMSU TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR SHOWS DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI COUNTY...WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1 INCH. THE 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW
THIS DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING. WITH
THE DRY LOW-LEVELS AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...SHOWERS WILL BE
FURTHER LIMITED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY/TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES WEST OF THE STATE AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...THE UPPER JET
REORIENTS ITSELF SW TO NE AND WILL PULL SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE NORTH
OF THE STATE. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
PULL IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. DURING THIS
TIME...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
FILL IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...KEEPING TRADE
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO STRENGTHENING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...WINDS
ACROSS THE SUMMITS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE KILO NALU BUOY SHOWS THAT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE STABILIZED NEAR 3
FEET...BUT THE WAVE PERIOD CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 14 SECONDS
AND 9 SECONDS. THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM 180 WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EDGED OUT BY THE SHORTER PERIOD SWELL FROM 140/150. SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TODAY AND MONDAY...
BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS FOR MID/LATE WEEK.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE BROAD FETCH OF STRONGER WINDS WILL GENERATE A
MODERATE SHORT PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL BE
GREATEST MID/LATE WEEK. WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS
MAY ALSO REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY MID-WEEK...INITIALLY ACROSS THE
WINDIER CHANNELS.

BEYOND THAT...THE GFS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET E/SE OF NEW
ZEALAND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES SETTING UP IN
THE TASMAN SEA ADJACENT TO THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SFC LOW...A
BROAD FETCH OF STRONG GALES WITH GOOD AIM/TRAJECTORY TOWARD HAWAII
SHOULD RESULT. ALTHO ITS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE ARE BOUND TO BE
FLUCTUATIONS...MODELS DROP THE CNTRL PRES OF THE ASSOCD LOW TO
LEVELS SUGGESTING EMBEDDED STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD
MAINTAINING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT FETCH WITH FAVORABLE
DURATION AND NOT SKIP THRU OUR S FACING GREAT CIRCLE PATHS TOO
QUICKLY. OVERALL...THE FCST LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SRN
HEMISPHERE DOES SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR BETTER SIZED SURF TO
FINISH OUT THE LAST THIRD OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD TODAY AS TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE. SHOWERS MAY DROP CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR ACROSS
WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS...MAINLY THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WILL BE
BRIEF AND PASSING. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE AND LIMIT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE
VFR...WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT PHNY DUE TO ITS HIGHER
ELEVATION. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO GREATER CHANCES FOR
LOW-LEVEL/MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRAVENDER/DEJESUS

000
ATHW40 PHFO 051234
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SUN JUL 05 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC JULY 05 2009

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS WELL DROPPING LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN FAVORING THE MAUKA AND WINDWARD AREAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS ALSO PERSIST OVER THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE STATE. TRAILING PLUME CLOUDS ARE GENERATING LOW
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF THE KONA COAST ON THE BIG ISLAND
AS WELL AS LEEWARD KAUAI...OAHU AND MAUI. THE PREVAILING CLOUD
MOVEMENT IS TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. FURTHER EAST OF
THE STATE...A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN AND OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
IS PUSHING TO THE WEST ALSO AT 15 MPH. THIS AREA OF LOW STABLE
CLOUDS IS BOUNDED TO THE WEST AT 152W AND BETWEEN 10N AND 30N.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. THIS
LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 10 MPH. A WEAKENED TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH BUT RESULTING IN SPARSE HIGH CLOUDS ABOUT 400
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE REMAIN FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.

WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES TO FIRE FAR SOUTHWEST FROM HAWAII. THESE
THUNDERHEADS HAVE TOPS AS HIGH AS 55 THOUSAND FEET AND HAVE PRODUCED
MANY POSITIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THIS AREA IS
OF CONVECTION IS BOUNDED BY THE EQUATOR AND 10N AND 150W TO 170E.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG AN AXIS
FROM 37N169W TO 32N174W TO 28N 177E. A 300 MILE WIDE LINE OF BROKEN
LAYERED CLOUDS LIE ADJACENT TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EAST.
CLOUD TOPS REACH 35 THOUSAND FEET AND LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED
AT MIDWAY ATOLL IN THE PAST HOUR.

$$

FOSTER

000
FXHW60 PHFO 050630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTH. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH
ONLY LIGHT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER US. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THIS TROUGH
HAS LED TO 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2MB ACROSS THE STATE. DESPITE
THE PRESSURE FALLS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SURFACE WINDS HAVE
BEEN STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...DISPLACING THIS LOW AND
HELPING TO STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. AS THIS HIGH BUILDS AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...WE WILL SEE
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS NEAR 6-8KFT
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THE HILO SOUNDING AGAIN SHOWS UP TO 5C OF
WARMING ABOVE 800MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
AROUND 1.3 INCHES. THE POES AMSU TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND...WITH PW VALUES AROUND
1 INCH. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THIS DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THE DRY LOW-LEVELS AND
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS...SHOWERS WILL BE FURTHER LIMITED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WEST OF THE
STATE AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...THE UPPER JET REORIENTS ITSELF SW TO
NE AND WILL PULL SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE SOUTH.

BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE NORTH
OF THE STATE. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
PULL IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. DURING THIS
TIME...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
FILLS IN AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD...KEEPING TRADE
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO STRENGTHENING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...WINDS
ACROSS THE SUMMITS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE KILO NALU BUOY SHOWS THE SOUTH SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THE
REPORTED PERIOD HAS BECOME MORE INCONSISTENT...AND HAS FLUCTUATED
BETWEEN 14 SECONDS AND 9 SECONDS. THE LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM 180
IS BEING EDGED OUT BY THE SHORTER PERIOD SWELL FROM 140/150. SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BEFORE SETTLING INTO BACKGROUND LEVELS FOR MID/LATE WEEK.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE BROAD FETCH OF STRONGER WINDS WILL GENERATE A
MODERATE SHORT PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL BE
GREATEST MID/LATE WEEK. WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS
MAY ALSO REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY MID-WEEK...INITIALLY ACROSS THE
WINDIER CHANNELS.

BEYOND THAT...THE GFS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET E/SE OF NEW
ZEALAND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES SETTING UP IN
THE TASMAN SEA ADJACENT TO THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SFC LOW...A
BROAD FETCH OF STRONG GALES WITH GOOD AIM/TRAJECTORY TOWARD HAWAII
SHOULD RESULT. ALTHO ITS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE ARE BOUND TO BE
FLUCTUATIONS...MODELS DROP THE CNTRL PRES OF THE ASSOCD LOW TO
LEVELS SUGGESTING EMBEDDED STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD
MAINTAINING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT FETCH WITH FAVORABLE
DURATION AND NOT SKIP THRU OUR S FACING GREAT CIRCLE PATHS TOO
QUICKLY. OVERALL...THE FCST LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SRN
HEMISPHERE DOES SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR BETTER SIZED SURF TO
FINISH OUT THE LAST THIRD OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SHOWERS MAY DROP
CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR ACROSS WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS...BUT THEY
WILL BE BRIEF AND PASSING. TRADES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...BUT
DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE WILL LIMIT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY. CEILINGS ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE GENERALLY VFR...
WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT PHNY DUE TO ITS HIGHER
ELEVATION. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO GREATER CHANCES FOR
LOW-LEVEL/MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRAVENDER/DEJESUS

000
ATHW40 PHFO 050531
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SUN JUL 05 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC JULY 05 2009

CLOUD COVER OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS HELD STEADY THIS
EVENING WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS FAVORING MAUKA AND/OR
UPSLOPE SECTIONS ON EACH ISLAND...INCLUDING IN LEEWARD AREAS. MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY/SADDLE SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ARE SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY...SUCH AS THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND CENTRAL AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI. CLOUD TOPS ARE UP TO 8
THOUSAND FEET WITH THE STRENGTHENED TRADE WIND INVERSION.

OVER THE OCEAN WATERS NEAR THE STATE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...SOME WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS IS
PRESENT DIRECTLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THIS CLOUDINESS IS
LOCATED FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 154W AND 158W. CLOUD MOVEMENT IS
FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. TRAILING PLUME CLOUDS
ARE GENERATING LOW CEILINGS FROM TIME TO TIME WEST OF THE SOUTH KONA
DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND AS WELL AS LEEWARD KAUAI AND OAHU. SKIES
ARE MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 650 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. THIS
LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 10 MPH. THE AXIS OF A NEARLY STATIONARY
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO JUST OVER THE BIG ISLAND TO 12N156W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS PARALLEL THE TROUGH
AXIS TO THE 250 MILES TO THE EAST.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
CONTINUES TO FIRE FAR SOUTHWEST FROM HAWAII.  MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...BUT SOME
THUNDERHEAD TOPS ARE RISING TO OVER 51 THOUSAND FEET. THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE BOUNDED BY 04S TO 10N AND 170W AND
171E. ANOTHER LINE OF MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS BOUNDED BY 04N
TO 08N AND 151W TO 170W WITH CLOUD TOPS TO 54 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

FOSTER

000
FXHW60 PHFO 050209 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BENIGN TRADE WIND WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEK WITH NO
MAJOR CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON. TRADES STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD/MTN TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES
FURTHER AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS.

INCREASED SKY COVER MON/TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME POSSIBLE SCT/BKN
LAYERED CI ADVECTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE S AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ORIENTS ITSELF SW/NE OVER HI. KEPT THE SKY INCREASE SUBTLE...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE BUMPED UP FURTHER AS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
APPROACHES. INTO THE TUE/WED/THU TIME FRAME...E/NE WINDS ACROSS THE
BI/HALEAKALA SUMMITS MAY INTERMITTENTLY ACCELERATE TO NEAR ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OF 30 MPH AS H5 HEIGHT GRADS TIGHTEN BETWEEN A BUILDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE N AND BROAD MID/UPR LOW PRES FAR TO THE SE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 930 AM HST SAT MORNING/
ITS LOOKING LIKE A PICTURE PERFECT MORNING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE MID SHIFT LEFT THE GRIDS
IN GREAT SHAPE. ONLY ISOL/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE AND COASTAL WATERS IN THE MODERATE TRADE ENE TRADE FLOW. THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD/MTN TERRAIN AND BECOME
MORE ISOLATED THRU THE DAY AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES AND WARMING
STRENGTHENS THE TRADE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE USUAL CLIMO
ROUTINE WITH SIMILAR WX FOR SUN/MON. ALSO ON A SIDE NOTE...THE
HIGHER 45-55 DBZ RETURNS IN THE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY NEAR
HALEAKALA SUMMIT...AND BETWEEN UPOLU AIRPORT AND KAMUELA ON THE
BI...IS JUST CLUTTER BEING PICKED UP BY THE UPOLU POINT RADAR. IT
IS NOT STNRY ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS.

LONG TERM IS LOOKING PRETTY TRANQUIL. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THRU THE PERIOD REACHING FRESH LEVELS TOWARDS MID WEEK.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE STABLE LOWERING AND STRENGTHENING
THE INVERSION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED WINDWARD TERRAIN.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE DRIER SIDE
REGARDLESS OF FLUCTUATING POCKETS OF LLVL MOISTURE BEING CARRIED WWD
IN THE TRADES. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS
WORTH MENTIONING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THE DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES...WIND
SPEEDS AND KBDI INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SIZE AND CONSISTENCY ASSOCD WITH THE CURRENT S SWELL 180 CONTINUES
TO FADE THIS AFTN. MOST S FACING AREAS ARE CHECKING IN AROUND
WAIST/SHOULDER HIGH WITH TOP FOCAL REEFS/BEACHES HITTING HEAD HIGH
ON THE BETTER SETS. THIS S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DROP THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SE SWELL 140-150
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THRU SUN UP TO CHEST/SHOULDER HIGH AS WELL
BEFORE FADING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. N FACING SHORES ARE PULLING IN
SOME SMALL NE SWELL WHICH WILL FADE TODAY THRU MON WITH MOST AREAS
NOT EXCEEDING KNEE/WAIST HIGH. ERLY TRADE WINDSWELL WILL INCREASE
FOR WINDWARD SHORES THRU THE PERIOD.

COMPLEX LOW PRES SITUATED WELL E OF NEW ZEALAND WILL HAVE SEVERAL
SMALLER S/WV TROFS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEY WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY WITH SMALL FETCH AREAS WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE MAINLY SMALL BACKGROUND SURF LOCALLY INTO MID
MONTH AFTER THE CURRENT S/SE SWELL COMBO VANISHES COMPLETELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE GFS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET E/SE OF NEW
ZEALAND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES SETTING UP IN
THE TASMAN SEA ADJACENT TO THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SFC LOW...A
BROAD FETCH OF STRONG GALES WITH GOOD AIM/TRAJECTORY TOWARD HAWAII
SHOULD RESULT. ALTHO ITS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE ARE BOUND TO BE
FLUCTUATIONS...MODELS DROP THE CNTRL PRES OF THE ASSOCD LOW TO
LEVELS SUGGESTING EMBEDDED STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD
MAINTAINING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT FETCH WITH FAVORABLE
DURATION AND NOT SKIP THRU OUR S FACING GREAT CIRCLE PATHS TOO
QUICKLY. OVERALL...THE FCST LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SRN
HEMISPHERE DOES SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR BETTER SIZED SURF TO
FINISH OUT THE LAST THIRD OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION.../UPDATE ISSUED 410 PM HST SAT/
SIMGET OSCAR CANCELLED.

A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND CLOUD/SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE. MVFR CIGS FOR PHNY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SKC SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS MAY DROP CIGS DOWN
TO MVFR ACROSS WINDWARD/MT SXNS...BUT THEY WILL BE BRIEF AND
PASSING. WITH INCREASING TRADES WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
PIREPS FOR INDICATIONS OF INCREASED MOD LLVL TURB.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DEJESUS

000
FXHW60 PHFO 050128
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BENIGN TRADE WIND WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEK WITH NO
MAJOR CONCERNS ON THE HORIZON. TRADES STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD/MTN TERRAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES
FURTHER AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS.

INCREASED SKY COVER MON/TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME POSSIBLE SCT/BKN
LAYERED CI ADVECTING OVER THE AREA FROM THE S AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET
ORIENTS ITSELF SW/NE OVER HI. KEPT THE SKY INCREASE SUBTLE...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE BUMPED UP FURTHER AS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
APPROACHES. INTO THE TUE/WED/THU TIME FRAME...E/NE WINDS ACROSS THE
BI/HALEAKALA SUMMITS MAY INTERMITTENTLY ACCELERATE TO NEAR ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OF 30 MPH AS H5 HEIGHT GRADS TIGHTEN BETWEEN A BUILDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE N AND BROAD MID/UPR LOW PRES FAR TO THE SE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 930 AM HST SAT MORNING/
ITS LOOKING LIKE A PICTURE PERFECT MORNING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE MID SHIFT LEFT THE GRIDS
IN GREAT SHAPE. ONLY ISOL/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE AND COASTAL WATERS IN THE MODERATE TRADE ENE TRADE FLOW. THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD/MTN TERRAIN AND BECOME
MORE ISOLATED THRU THE DAY AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES AND WARMING
STRENGTHENS THE TRADE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE USUAL CLIMO
ROUTINE WITH SIMILAR WX FOR SUN/MON. ALSO ON A SIDE NOTE...THE
HIGHER 45-55 DBZ RETURNS IN THE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY NEAR
HALEAKALA SUMMIT...AND BETWEEN UPOLU AIRPORT AND KAMUELA ON THE
BI...IS JUST CLUTTER BEING PICKED UP BY THE UPOLU POINT RADAR. IT
IS NOT STNRY ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS.

LONG TERM IS LOOKING PRETTY TRANQUIL. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THRU THE PERIOD REACHING FRESH LEVELS TOWARDS MID WEEK.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE STABLE LOWERING AND STRENGTHENING
THE INVERSION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED WINDWARD TERRAIN.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE DRIER SIDE
REGARDLESS OF FLUCTUATING POCKETS OF LLVL MOISTURE BEING CARRIED WWD
IN THE TRADES. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS
WORTH MENTIONING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THE DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES...WIND
SPEEDS AND KBDI INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SIZE AND CONSISTENCY ASSOCD WITH THE CURRENT S SWELL 180 CONTINUES
TO FADE THIS AFTN. MOST S FACING AREAS ARE CHECKING IN AROUND
WAIST/SHOULDER HIGH WITH TOP FOCAL REEFS/BEACHES HITTING HEAD HIGH
ON THE BETTER SETS. THIS S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DROP THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SE SWELL 140-150
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THRU SUN UP TO CHEST/SHOULDER HIGH AS WELL
BEFORE FADING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. N FACING SHORES ARE PULLING IN
SOME SMALL NE SWELL WHICH WILL FADE TODAY THRU MON WITH MOST AREAS
NOT EXCEEDING KNEE/WAIST HIGH. ERLY TRADE WINDSWELL WILL INCREASE
FOR WINDWARD SHORES THRU THE PERIOD.

COMPLEX LOW PRES SITUATED WELL E OF NEW ZEALAND WILL HAVE SEVERAL
SMALLER S/WV TROFS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEY WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY WITH SMALL FETCH AREAS WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE MAINLY SMALL BACKGROUND SURF LOCALLY INTO MID
MONTH AFTER THE CURRENT S/SE SWELL COMBO VANISHES COMPLETELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE GFS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET E/SE OF NEW
ZEALAND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES SETTING UP IN
THE TASMAN SEA ADJACENT TO THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SFC LOW...A
BROAD FETCH OF STRONG GALES WITH GOOD AIM/TRAJECTORY TOWARD HAWAII
SHOULD RESULT. ALTHO ITS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE ARE BOUND TO BE
FLUCTUATIONS...MODELS DROP THE CNTRL PRES OF THE ASSOCD LOW TO
LEVELS SUGGESTING EMBEDDED STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD
MAINTAINING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT FETCH WITH FAVORABLE
DURATION AND NOT SKIP THRU OUR S FACING GREAT CIRCLE PATHS TOO
QUICKLY. OVERALL...THE FCST LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SRN
HEMISPHERE DOES SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR BETTER SIZED SURF TO
FINISH OUT THE LAST THIRD OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVN PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS ON SIGMET OSCAR ISSUED FOR
THE CONVECTION APPROXIMATELY 1400 NM SW OF HAWAII.

A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND CLOUD/SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE. MVFR CIGS FOR PHNY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SKC SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS MAY DROP CIGS DOWN
TO MVFR ACROSS WINDWARD/MT SXNS...BUT THEY WILL BE BRIEF AND
PASSING. WITH INCREASING TRADES WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
PIREPS FOR INDICATIONS OF INCREASED MOD LLVL TURB.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DEJESUS

000
ATHW40 PHFO 050000
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0000 UTC SUN JUL 05 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 2330 UTC JULY 04 2009

CLOUD COVER IN THE ISLES HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING.  LOW CEILINGS ARE FAVORING MAUKA
AND/OR UPSLOPE SECTIONS ON EACH ISLAND...INCLUDING IN LEEWARD
AREAS.  MOST COASTAL SECTIONS ARE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AS IS THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET.
LOW CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE EAST TO EAST/NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH
STATEWIDE.

AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...SOME WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST.
MUCH OF THIS CLOUDINESS IS NOW LOCATED FROM 20.5N TO 24.5N BETWEEN
154W AND 157.5W.  PLUME CLOUDS ARE GENERATING LOW CEILINGS FROM TIME
TO TIME WEST OF THE SOUTH KONA DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND.  SKIES
ARE MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

LOOKING ABOVE 30 THOUSAND FEET...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS FAR
WEST OF KAUAI AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM 26N165.5W TO 22N174W TO
16.5N176E...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND GFS MODEL
DATA.  THE TROUGH HAS BEEN PUSHING EAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST NEAR 10
MPH.  ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
A LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N152.5W AND HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEAST AT
LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  THE AXIS OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO JUST OVER THE BIG ISLAND
TO 13N155.5W TO 08N154W.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY WITHIN 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
11N157W TO 10N151W.

INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
CONTINUES TO FIRE FAR SOUTHWEST FROM HAWAII.  MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME RISING TO OVER 50 THOUSAND FEET...ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N BETWEEN 173W AND 175E...AND FROM 02.5N TO
05.5N BETWEEN 167W AND 172.5W.  MORE ACTIVITY...THOUGH LESS
VIGOROUS...IS EVIDENT FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 146W AND 165W.

$$

KINEL

000
FXHW60 PHFO 042129 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1129 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ITS LOOKING LIKE A PICTURE PERFECT MORNING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE MID SHIFT LEFT THE GRIDS
IN GREAT SHAPE. ONLY ISOL/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE AND COASTAL WATERS IN THE MODERATE TRADE ENE TRADE FLOW. THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD/MTN TERRAIN AND BECOME
MORE ISOLATED THRU THE DAY AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES AND WARMING
STRENGTHENS THE TRADE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE USUAL CLIMO
ROUTINE WITH SIMILAR WX FOR SUN/MON. ALSO ON A SIDE NOTE...THE
HIGHER 45-55 DBZ RETURNS IN THE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY NEAR
HALEAKALA SUMMIT...AND BETWEEN UPOLU AIRPORT AND KAMUELA ON THE
BI...IS JUST CLUTTTER BEING PICKED UP BY THE UPOLU POINT RADAR. IT
IS NOT STNRY ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS.

LONG TERM IS LOOKING PRETTY TRANQUIL. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THRU THE PERIOD REACHING FRESH LEVELS TOWARDS MID WEEK.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE STABLE LOWERING AND STRENGTHENING
THE INVERSION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED WINDWARD TERRAIN.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE DRIER SIDE
REGARDLESS OF FLUCTUATING POCKETS OF LLVL MOISTURE BEING CARRIED WWD
IN THE TRADES. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS
WORTH MENTIONING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 400 AM HST SAT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS TROUGH
HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW THE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING AT AROUND 6-8KFT. THE
HILO SOUNDING HAS WARMED UP TO 5C BETWEEN 800MB AND 500MB...A SIGN
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE
POES AMSU TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR SHOWS DRIER AREAS UPSTREAM
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. IT ALSO SHOWS A LARGER AREA OF
HIGH PW/S MOVING TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY SIMILAR SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. AS HEIGHTS BUILDS...THE SURFACE HIGH
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...IT TAKES
ON A POSITION NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE
SUMMERTIME SEASON.

SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE STATE HAVE SHOWN STEADY 1-1.5MB
PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN AT MODERATE TO FRESH
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PICKED UP IN THE TRADE FLOW.
HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STRENGTHEN AND LOWER UNDER THE
BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THE DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS...ABOVE
THE RED FLAG THRESHOLD OF 45 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS AND THE KBDI ALSO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SIZE AND CONSISTENCY ASSOCD WITH THE CURRENT S SWELL 180 CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING. MOST S FACING AREAS ARE CHECKING IN AROUND
CHEST/SHOULDER HIGH WITH TOP FOCAL REEFS/BEACHES HITTING HEAD HIGH+
ON THE BETTER SETS. THIS S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DROP THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SE SWELL 140-150
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THRU SUN UP TO CHEST/SHOULDER HIGH AS WELL
BEFORE FADING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. N FACING SHORES ARE PULLING IN
SOME SMALL NE SWELL WHICH WILL FADE TODAY THRU MON WITH MOST AREAS
NOT EXCEEDING KNEE/WAIST HIGH. ERLY TRADE WINDSWELL WILL INCREASE
FOR WINDWARD SHORES THRU THE PERIOD.

COMPLEX LOW PRES SITUATED WELL E OF NEW ZEALAND WILL HAVE SEVERAL
SMALLER S/WV TROFS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEY WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY WITH SMALL FETCH AREAS WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE MAINLY SMALL BACKGROUND SURF LOCALLY INTO MID
MONTH AFTER THE CURRENT S/SE SWELL COMBO VANISHES COMPLETELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE GFS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET E/SE OF NEW
ZEALAND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES SETTING UP IN
THE TASMAN SEA ADJACENT TO THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SFC LOW...A
BROAD FETCH OF STRONG GALES WITH GOOD AIM/TRAJECTORY TOWARD HAWAII
SHOULD RESULT. ALTHO ITS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE ARE BOUND TO BE
FLUCTUATIONS...MODELS DROP THE CNTRL PRES OF THE ASSOCD LOW TO
LEVELS SUGGESTING EMBEDDED STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD
MAINTAINING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD FETCH WITH FAVORABLE DURATION
AND NOT SKIP THRU OUR S FACING GREAT CIRCLE PATHS TOO QUICKLY.
OVERALL...THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SRN HEMISPHERE
DOES SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR BETTER SIZED SURF TO FINISH OUT THE
LAST THIRD OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION.../UPDATE ISSUED 1129 AM HST/
PLEASE SEE THE AVN PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS ON SIGMET OSCAR ISSUED FOR
THE CONVECTION APPROXIMATELY 1400 NM SW OF HAWAII.

A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND CLOUD/SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION
OF MVFR AT PHNY DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE AIRPORT. SHOWERS
MAY DROP CIGS DOWN TO MVFR ACROSS WINDWARD SXNS...BUT THEY WILL BE
BRIEF AND PASSING. WITH INCREASING TRADES WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON PIREPS FOR INDICATIONS OF INCREASED MOD LLVL TURB.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
PUBLIC...DEJESUS
PREVIOUS...BRAVENDER
MARINE...DEJESUS
AVIATION...DEJESUS/BRAVENDER

000
FXHW60 PHFO 041953 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
952 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ITS LOOKING LIKE A PICTURE PERFECT MORNING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE MID SHIFT LEFT THE GRIDS
IN GREAT SHAPE. ONLY ISOL/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE AND COASTAL WATERS IN THE MODERATE TRADE ENE TRADE FLOW. THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD/MTN TERRAIN AND BECOME
MORE ISOLATED THRU THE DAY AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES AND WARMING
STRENGTHENS THE TRADE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE USUAL CLIMO
ROUTINE WITH SIMILAR WX FOR SUN/MON. ALSO ON A SIDE NOTE...THE
HIGHER 45-55 DBZ RETURNS IN THE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY NEAR
HALEAKALA SUMMIT...AND BETWEEN UPOLU AIRPORT AND KAMUELA ON THE
BI...IS JUST CLUTTTER BEING PICKED UP BY THE UPOLU POINT RADAR. IT
IS NOT STNRY ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS.

LONG TERM IS LOOKING PRETTY TRANQUIL. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THRU THE PERIOD REACHING FRESH LEVELS TOWARDS MID WEEK.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE STABLE LOWERING AND STRENGTHENING
THE INVERSION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED WINDWARD TERRAIN.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE DRIER SIDE
REGARDLESS OF FLUCTUATING POCKETS OF LLVL MOISTURE BEING CARRIED WWD
IN THE TRADES. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS
WORTH MENTIONING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 400 AM HST SAT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS TROUGH
HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW THE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING AT AROUND 6-8KFT. THE
HILO SOUNDING HAS WARMED UP TO 5C BETWEEN 800MB AND 500MB...A SIGN
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE
POES AMSU TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR SHOWS DRIER AREAS UPSTREAM
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. IT ALSO SHOWS A LARGER AREA OF
HIGH PW/S MOVING TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY SIMILAR SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. AS HEIGHTS BUILDS...THE SURFACE HIGH
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...IT TAKES
ON A POSITION NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE
SUMMERTIME SEASON.

SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE STATE HAVE SHOWN STEADY 1-1.5MB
PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN AT MODERATE TO FRESH
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PICKED UP IN THE TRADE FLOW.
HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STRENGTHEN AND LOWER UNDER THE
BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THE DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS...ABOVE
THE RED FLAG THRESHOLD OF 45 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS AND THE KBDI ALSO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SIZE AND CONSISTENCY ASSOCD WITH THE CURRENT S SWELL 180 CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING. MOST S FACING AREAS ARE CHECKING IN AROUND
CHEST/SHOULDER HIGH WITH TOP FOCAL REEFS/BEACHES HITTING HEAD HIGH+
ON THE BETTER SETS. THIS S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DROP THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SE SWELL 140-150
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THRU SUN UP TO CHEST/SHOULDER HIGH AS WELL
BEFORE FADING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. N FACING SHORES ARE PULLING IN
SOME SMALL NE SWELL WHICH WILL FADE TODAY THRU MON WITH MOST AREAS
NOT EXCEEDING KNEE/WAIST HIGH. ERLY TRADE WINDSWELL WILL INCREASE
FOR WINDWARD SHORES THRU THE PERIOD.

COMPLEX LOW PRES SITUATED WELL E OF NEW ZEALAND WILL HAVE SEVERAL
SMALLER S/WV TROFS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEY WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY WITH SMALL FETCH AREAS WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE MAINLY SMALL BACKGROUND SURF LOCALLY INTO MID
MONTH AFTER THE CURRENT S/SE SWELL COMBO VANISHES COMPLETELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE GFS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET E/SE OF NEW
ZEALAND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES SETTING UP IN
THE TASMAN SEA ADJACENT TO THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SFC LOW...A
BROAD FETCH OF STRONG GALES WITH GOOD AIM/TRAJECTORY TOWARD HAWAII
SHOULD RESULT. ALTHO ITS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE ARE BOUND TO BE
FLUCTUATIONS...MODELS DROP THE CNTRL PRES OF THE ASSOCD LOW TO
LEVELS SUGGESTING EMBEDDED STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD
MAINTAINING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD FETCH WITH FAVORABLE DURATION
AND NOT SKIP THRU OUR S FACING GREAT CIRCLE PATHS TOO QUICKLY.
OVERALL...THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SRN HEMISPHERE
DOES SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR BETTER SIZED SURF TO FINISH OUT THE
LAST THIRD OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND CLOUD/SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION
OF MVFR AT PHNY DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE AIRPORT. SHOWERS
MAY DROP CIGS DOWN TO MVFR ACROSS WINDWARD SXNS...BUT THEY WILL BE
BRIEF AND PASSING. WITH INCREASING TRADES WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON PIREPS FOR INDICATIONS OF INCREASED MOD LLVL TURB.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
PUBLIC...DEJESUS
PREVIOUS...BRAVENDER
MARINE...DEJESUS
AVIATION...DEJESUS/BRAVENDER

000
FXHW60 PHFO 041930
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ITS LOOKING LIKE A PICTURE PERFECT MORNING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. NO
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE MID SHIFT LEFT THE GRIDS
IN GREAT SHAPE. ONLY ISOL/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE AND COASTAL WATERS IN THE MODERATE TRADE ENE TRADE FLOW. THESE
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD/MTN TERRAIN AND BECOME
MORE ISOLATED THRU THE DAY AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES AND WARMING
STRENGTHENS THE TRADE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE USUAL CLIMO
ROUTINE WITH SIMILAR WX FOR SUN/MON. ALSO ON A SIDE NOTE...THE
HIGHER 45-55 DBZ RETURNS IN THE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY NEAR
HALEAKALA SUMMIT...AND BETWEEN UPOLU AIRPORT AND KAMUELA ON THE
BI...IS JUST CLUTTTER BEING PICKED UP BY THE UPOLU POINT RADAR. IT
IS NOT STNRY ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS.

LONG TERM IS LOOKING PRETTY TRANQUIL. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THRU THE PERIOD REACHING FRESH LEVELS TOWARDS MID WEEK.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE STABLE LOWERING AND STRENGTHENING
THE INVERSION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED WINDWARD TERRAIN.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE DRIER SIDE
REGARDLESS OF FLUCTUATING POCKETS OF LLVL MOISTURE BEING CARRIED WWD
IN THE TRADES. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS
WORTH MENTIONING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 400 AM HST SAT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS TROUGH
HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW THE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING AT AROUND 6-8KFT. THE
HILO SOUNDING HAS WARMED UP TO 5C BETWEEN 800MB AND 500MB...A SIGN
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE
POES AMSU TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR SHOWS DRIER AREAS UPSTREAM
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. IT ALSO SHOWS A LARGER AREA OF
HIGH PW/S MOVING TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY SIMILAR SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. AS HEIGHTS BUILDS...THE SURFACE HIGH
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...IT TAKES
ON A POSITION NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE
SUMMERTIME SEASON.

SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE STATE HAVE SHOWN STEADY 1-1.5MB
PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN AT MODERATE TO FRESH
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PICKED UP IN THE TRADE FLOW.
HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STRENGTHEN AND LOWER UNDER THE
BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THE DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.
RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS...ABOVE
THE RED FLAG THRESHOLD OF 45 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS AND THE KBDI ALSO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SIZE AND CONSISTENCY ASSOCD WITH THE CURRENT S SWELL 180 CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING. MOST S FACING AREAS ARE CHECKING IN AROUND
CHEST/SHOULDER HIGH WITH TOP FOCAL REEFS/BEACHES HITTING HEAD HIGH+
ON THE BETTER SETS. THIS S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DROP THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SE SWELL 140-150
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THRU SUN UP TO CHEST/SHOULDER HIGH AS WELL
BEFORE FADING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. N FACING SHORES ARE PULLING IN
SOME SMALL NE SWELL WHICH WILL FADE TODAY THRU MON WITH MOST AREAS
NOT EXCEEDING KNEE/WAIST HIGH. ERLY TRADE WINDSWELL WILL INCREASE
FOR WINDWARD SHORES THRU THE PERIOD.

COMPLEX LOW PRES SITUATED WELL E OF NEW ZEALAND WILL HAVE SEVERAL
SMALLER S/WV TROFS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEY WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY WITH SMALL FETCH AREAS WHICH WILL
LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE MAINLY SMALL BACKGROUND SURF LOCALLY INTO MID
MONTH AFTER THE CURRENT S/SE SWELL COMBO VANISHES COMPLETELY.

BEYOND THAT...THE GFS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET E/SE OF NEW
ZEALAND TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES SETTING UP IN
THE TASMAN SEA ADJACENT TO THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SFC LOW...A
BROAD FETCH OF STRONG GALES WITH GOOD AIM/TRAJECTORY TOWARD HAWAII
SHOULD RESULT. ALTHO ITS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE ARE BOUND TO BE
FLUCTUATIONS...MODELS DROP THE CNTRL PRES OF THE ASSOCD LOW TO
LEVELS SUGGESTING EMBEDDED STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD
MAINTAINING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD FETCH WITH FAVORABLE DURATION
AND SKIP THRU OUR S FACING GREAT CIRCLE PATHS TOO QUICKLY.
OVERALL...THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SRN HEMISPHERE
DOES SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR BETTER SIZED SURF TO FINISH OUT THE
LAST THIRD OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND CLOUD/SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION
OF MVFR AT PHNY DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE AIRPORT. SHOWERS
MAY DROP CIGS DOWN TO MVFR ACROSS WINDWARD SXNS...BUT THEY WILL BE
BRIEF AND PASSING. WITH INCREASING TRADES WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON PIREPS FOR INDICATIONS OF INCREASED MOD LLVL TURB.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
PUBLIC...DEJESUS
PREVIOUS...BRAVENDER
MARINE...DEJESUS
AVIATION...DEJESUS/BRAVENDER

000
ATHW40 PHFO 041800
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1800 UTC SAT JUL 04 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1730 UTC JULY 04 2009

LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE EAST NEAR 15 MPH ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THIS MORNING.  WITH THIS TRADE FLOW...LOW CEILINGS AND
ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAVORING WINDWARD COASTAL...
MAUKA AND WINDWARD UPSLOPE SECTIONS ON THE INDIVIDUAL ISLES.  AS OF
BULLETIN TIME...THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN THE CASE OVER KAUAI...
OAHU...AND IN THE HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS ON THE BIG ISLAND.
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ALOHA STATE.

SKIES ARE PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.  HOWEVER...SMALL AREAS OF BROKEN SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE FLOW UPWIND FROM THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY
FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 152.5W AND 158W.

THE LATEST GFS MODEL DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW TWO TROUGHS
ABOVE 30 THOUSAND FEET IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC.  ONE IS FAR
WEST OF THE KAUAI...WHOSE AXIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM 26N167W
TO 22N175.5W TO 18N178E.  THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE HEADING TOWARD
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH.  BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MAINLY WEST OF 170W.  ALSO...
THE TROUGH IS INDUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 21.5N
BETWEEN 177W AND 177E.  THE OTHER FEATURE IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
STATE.  AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N153W...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE LOW TO JUST OVER THE BIG
ISLAND TO 16N154W TO 08N153W.  THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND
IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 150W AND 153.5W.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN IGNITING ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07.5N BETWEEN 170W AND 175E...
WHERE CB TOPS ARE CLIMBING ABOVE 50 THOUSAND FEET.  LESS VIGOROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING FROM 02.5N TO 07.5N BETWEEN
145W AND 168W.

$$

KINEL

000
FXHW60 PHFO 041330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS TROUGH
HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN INVERSION HEIGHTS...BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO
AND LIHUE SHOW THE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING AT AROUND 6-8KFT. THE
HILO SOUNDING HAS WARMED UP TO 5C BETWEEN 800MB AND 500MB...A SIGN
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE
POES AMSU TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR SHOWS DRIER AREAS UPSTREAM
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. IT ALSO SHOWS A LARGER AREA OF
HIGH PW/S MOVING TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY SIMILAR SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. AS HEIGHTS BUILDS...THE SURFACE HIGH
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...IT TAKES
ON A POSITION NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE
SUMMERTIME SEASON.

SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE STATE HAVE SHOWN STEADY 1-1.5MB
PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THE NIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND REMAIN AT MODERATE TO FRESH
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PICKED UP IN THE TRADE FLOW.
HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STRENGTHEN AND LOWER UNDER THE
BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THE DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FRIDAY...THANKS TO AN
AREA OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. RH VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 50 ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS...ABOVE THE RED FLAG THRESHOLD OF
45 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS AND THE KBDI ALSO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE KILO NALU BUOY HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LOWER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. 06Z WAVEWATCH III SHOWS THIS DIMINISHING TREND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY...AND DIMINISH FURTHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE BROAD FETCH OF STRONGER WINDS WILL GENERATE A
MODERATE SHORT PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL BE
GREATEST MID/LATE WEEK. WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS
MAY ALSO REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY MID-WEEK...INITIALLY ACROSS THE
WINDIER CHANNELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND CLOUD/SHOWER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION
OF MVFR AT PHNY DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE AIRPORT. SHOWERS
MAY DROP CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS...BUT THEY
WILL BE BRIEF AND PASSING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRAVENDER

000
FXHW60 PHFO 040646
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY LIGHT TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. THIS THOUGH HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN INVERSION HEIGHTS...
BUT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED.
THE POES AMSU TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSOR SHOWS INCREASING AREAS
OF DRIER AIR UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. IT ALSO SHOWS A
LARGER AREA OF HIGH PW/S MOVING TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FROM HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY SIMILAR SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE STATE MOVING WEST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. AS HEIGHTS BUILDS...THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE STATE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...IT TAKES ON A POSITION
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE SUMMERTIME
SEASON.

TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
REMAIN AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING PICKED
UP IN THE TRADE FLOW. HOWEVER...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL STRENGTHEN
AND LOWER UNDER THE BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEPING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THE DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY...GETTING DOWN TOWARD THE
45 PERCENT RED FLAG THRESHOLD ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS AND THE KBDI REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE KILO NALU BUOY HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD HAS ALSO BEGUN TO
DROP. 00Z WAVEWATCH III SHOWS THIS SLOW TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY...AND DIMINISH FURTHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE BROAD FETCH OF STRONGER WINDS WILL GENERATE A
MODERATE SHORT PERIOD EASTERLY TRADE SWELL. THIS SWELL WILL BE
GREATEST MID/LATE WEEK. WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS
WILL ALSO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY MID-WEEK...INITIALLY ACROSS
THE WINDIER CHANNELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS MAY DROP
CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS...BUT THEY WILL BE
BRIEF AND PASSING. A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND CLOUD/SHOWER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. CEILINGS ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE GENERALLY
VFR...WITH THE TYPICAL EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT PHNY DUE TO ITS HIGHER
ELEVATION.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRAVENDER

000
FXHW60 PHFO 040131
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY
LIGHT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS ARE COMING BACK TO LIFE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN
AS HIGH PRES GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS TO THE N. THERE ARE A FEW
LEEWARD CONVECTIVE PULSE SHOWERS OCCURRING BUT WILL DIMINISH AT OR
JUST AFTER SUNSET. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS ARE BECOMING BETTER FOCUSED
OVER WINDWARD/MTN TERRAIN AGAIN AS TRADES KICK BACK IN. THE WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE INTERACTION WITH THE
DECREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY DRY
AND PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER AS THE MID LEVELS
WARM BY 3-4 DEG C AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS PUSHED WWD BY THE
ASSOCD MID/UPR RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE E. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ALLOW SFC HIGH PRES TO OUR NE TO SLIDE
S...RESULTING IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN TRADES TOWARDS MID WEEK. A
GENERALLY DRY WINDWARD/MTN POP/WX REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
LONGER TERM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECTING DRIER TRADE WIND FLOW TO ENSUE TNGT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS PEAK FIREWORKS TIME ROLLS AROUND TOWARDS SAT EVENING RH
VALUES AROUND MOST COASTAL AREAS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID
70`S. TRADES WILL BE BACK IN GEAR AT MODERATE LEVELS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH. RH VALUES...WINDS...AND KBDI INDICES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OF 8 FT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW INCONSISTENT
LARGER SETS FAVORING TOP REEFS FOCUSING THE SWELL BEST. STILL
EXPECTING THE S SWELL 180 TO BEGIN A DECREASING TREND LATE TNGT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY 4-6 FT SURF EXPECTED
TMRW HITTING ROUGHLY HEAD HIGH AS ADDITIONAL FRESH SE SWELL 140-150
BUILDS. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH CHEST/HEAD HIGH SURF
SAT/SUN/MON WITH A FEW LARGER SETS SNEAKING THRU NOW AND THEN. THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY/CFW HAS BEEN CANCELLED BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS/OBS. SURF WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR S FACING SHORES NEXT
WEEK.

SMALL NE WINDSWELL WILL HOLD ALONG N FACING SHORES THRU THE WKND UP
TO CHEST/SHOULDER HIGH AT A FEW SELECT SPOTS THEN DROP INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. AS THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION
MENTIONED IN THE PUBLIC DISCUSSION UNFOLDS...IT WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING SLOPPY SHORT PERIOD ERLY TRADE SWELL ALONG EXPOSED
WINDWARD REEFS/BEACHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE ERN NPAC HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DROPS S NEXT WEEK IT COULD RAMP
UP WINDS TO SCA CRITERIA TOWARDS WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER CHANNELS AT FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY...WITH PHNY
PULLING IN THE USUAL AFTN MVFR CIGS...WHICH SHOULD TREND BACK TO VFR
AND SKC SOMETIME AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET. THERE ARE FEW VERY ISOLD
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHRA OVER LEEWARD MAUI/OAHU AND INTERIOR/KONA
BI WITH TCU TOPS ONLY REACHING 100-150 BASED ON RADAR. AGAIN...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO END AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DEJESUS

000
FXHW60 PHFO 031852 AAC
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
850 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2009

.UPDATE ISSUED 750 AM HST FRI...
THE CURRENT FCST REASONING LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS SKY/POP AS WE TRANSITION BACK TO TRADES. SATELLITE/RADAR
INDICATE LLVL ERLY CLOUD MOTIONS AROUND 15 KT. STILL MAY HAVE SOME
LINGERING SEA BREEZE EFFECTS FOR LEEWARD/INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS
AFTN...SO CLOUD COVER NUDGED UPWARD FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT LOW END
ISOL POPS FOR MOST AREAS AS WELL THIS AFTN. ALSO...THE 03/12Z PHTO
SOUNDING STILL DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE MIXED LAYER ALOFT AROUND 11
KFT SO DID INCREASE AFTN CLOUD COVER FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE STATE FORECAST/SFP WILL RECEIVE AN UPDATE AS WELL.

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO
REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE ERN NPAC THRU THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN...STRENGTHENING TRADES AND FURTHER STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...PCPN WILL BECOME STEADILY MORE FOCUSED ON WINDWARD
TERRAIN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY
LIGHT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION ISSUED 400 AM HST FRI...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AS A REMNANT FRONT TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SLOWLY DISSIPATES...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO STEEPEN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THEN...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...SEA BREEZES WILL BE
LIMITED TO FAVORED LEEWARD AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH ABUNDANT LEEWARD SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. RETURN FLOW AND SEA BREEZES WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN THE SHORT TERM AND MAY MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS...TRADES WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS AND THE BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD SLOPES BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HINT AT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST THAT WOULD LEAD TO LIGHTER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER A STABLE AND
SUBSIDENT AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEPTH AND KEEP TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATE ISSUED 850 AM HST FRI
THE CURRENT BUILDING S SWELL IS NOW EXPECTED TO PEAK SLIGHTLY
SMALLER THAN FORECAST AROUND 8 FT...OR ROUGHLY 3 FT OVERHEAD WITH A
FEW LARGER STRAY SETS SNEAKING THRU. THE SURF FORECAST/GRIDS/CFW
WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE TO THE
ADVISORY EXPIRATION TOMORROW AFTN.

FRESH SRN HEMI SWELL CONTINUES TO FILL IN ALONG S FACING SHORES. THE
KILO NALU BUOY IS SHOWING A VERY GRADUAL INCREASING TREND.
FORERUNNERS FROM THIS SWELL SHOWED A LITTLE LATER FORECAST...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD THRU THE DAY. THIS MORNING SURF IS RUNNING
MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. THE LARGEST SURF RUNNING SEVERAL FT
OVERHEAD IS STILL IMPACTING TOP FOCAL REEFS/BEACHES. SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS THRU SAT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SE SWELL FROM THE 135-145 DEG BAND IS
EXPECTED TODAY THRU THE WKND AS WELL POSSIBLY REACHING THE 3-5 FT
RANGE OR ROUGHLY HEAD HIGH...MAYBE SOME LARGER SETS. A GENERAL
DECREASING TREND IN SURF FROM THE SRN HEMI WILL BEGIN GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS TRADES INCREASE...CHOPPY ROUGH SURF ALONG WINDWARD
SHORES/REEFS WILL INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY. ANY MVFR
CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD TERRAIN AS TRADES
INCREASE TODAY. AS TRADES RAMP UP...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN LLVL
MOD CHOP BUT NOTHING WORTHY OF AN AIRMET RIGHT AWAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$
UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION...DEJESUS
PREVIOUS...POWELL

000
FXHW60 PHFO 031850 AAB
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
850 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2009

.UPDATE ISSUED 750 AM HST FRI...
THE CURRENT FCST REASONING LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS SKY/POP AS WE TRANSITION BACK TO TRADES. SATELLITE/RADAR
INDICATE LLVL ERLY CLOUD MOTIONS AROUND 15 KT. STILL MAY HAVE SOME
LINGERING SEA BREEZE EFFECTS FOR LEEWARD/INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS
AFTN...SO CLOUD COVER NUDGED UPWARD FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT LOW END
ISOL POPS FOR MOST AREAS AS WELL THIS AFTN. ALSO...THE 03/12Z PHTO
SOUNDING STILL DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE MIXED LAYER ALOFT AROUND 11
KFT SO DID INCREASE AFTN CLOUD COVER FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE STATE FORECAST/SFP WILL RECEIVE AN UPDATE AS WELL.

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO
REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE ERN NPAC THRU THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN...STRENGTHENING TRADES AND FURTHER STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...PCPN WILL BECOME STEADILY MORE FOCUSED ON WINDWARD
TERRAIN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY
LIGHT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION ISSUED 400 AM HST FRI...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AS A REMNANT FRONT TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SLOWLY DISSIPATES...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO STEEPEN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THEN...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...SEA BREEZES WILL BE
LIMITED TO FAVORED LEEWARD AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH ABUNDANT LEEWARD SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. RETURN FLOW AND SEA BREEZES WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN THE SHORT TERM AND MAY MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS...TRADES WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS AND THE BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD SLOPES BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HINT AT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST THAT WOULD LEAD TO LIGHTER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER A STABLE AND
SUBSIDENT AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEPTH AND KEEP TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATE ISSUED 850 AM HST FRI
THE CURRENT BUILDING S SWELL IS NOW EXPECTED TO PEAK SLIGHTLY
SMALLER THAN FORECAST AROUND 8 FT...OR ROUGHLY 3 FT OVERHEAD WITH A
FEW LARGER STRAY SETS SNEAKING THRU. THE SURF FORECAST/GRIDS/CFW
WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE TO THE
ADVISORY EXPIRATION TOMORROW AFTN.

FRESH SRN HEMI SWELL CONTINUES TO FILL IN ALONG S FACING SHORES. THE
KILO NALU BUOY IS SHOWING A VERY GRADUAL INCREASING TREND.
FORERUNNERS FROM THIS SWELL SHOWED A LITTLE LATER FORECAST...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD THRU THE DAY. THIS MORNING SURF IS RUNNING
MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. THE LARGEST SURF RUNNING SEVERAL FT
OVERHEAD IS STILL IMPACTING TOP FOCAL REEFS/BEACHES. SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS THRU SUN. AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SE SWELL FROM THE 135-145 DEG BAND IS
EXPECTED TODAY THRU THE WKND AS WELL POSSIBLY REACHING THE 3-5 FT
RANGE OR ROUGHLY HEAD HIGH...MAYBE SOME LARGER SETS. A GENERAL
DECREASING TREND IN SURF FROM THE SRN HEMI WILL BEGIN GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS TRADES INCREASE...CHOPPY ROUGH SURF ALONG WINDWARD
SHORES/REEFS WILL INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD.

WONT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY/CFW THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY. ANY MVFR
CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD TERRAIN AS TRADES
INCREASE TODAY. AS TRADES RAMP UP...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN LLVL
MOD CHOP BUT NOTHING WORTHY OF AN AIRMET RIGHT AWAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$
UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION...DEJESUS
PREVIOUS...POWELL

000
FXHW60 PHFO 031750 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
750 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2009

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FCST REASONING LOOKS GENERALLY ON TRACK. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS SKY/POP AS WE TRANSITION BACK TO TRADES. SATELLITE/RADAR
INDICATE LLVL ERLY CLOUD MOTIONS AROUND 15 KT. STILL MAY HAVE SOME
LINGERING SEA BREEZE EFFECTS FOR LEEWARD/INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS
AFTN...SO CLOUD COVER NUDGED UPWARD FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT LOW END
ISOL POPS FOR MOST AREAS AS WELL THIS AFTN. ALSO...THE 03/12Z PHTO
SOUNDING STILL DEPICTS THE BASE OF THE MIXED LAYER ALOFT AROUND 11
KFT SO DID INCREASE AFTN CLOUD COVER FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE STATE FORECAST/SFP WILL RECEIVE AN UPDATE AS WELL.

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO
REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE ERN NPAC THRU THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN...STRENGTHENING TRADES AND FURTHER STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...PCPN WILL BECOME STEADILY MORE FOCUSED ON WINDWARD
TERRAIN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH ONLY
LIGHT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION ISSUED 400 AM HST FRI...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AS A REMNANT FRONT TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SLOWLY DISSIPATES...CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO STEEPEN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THEN...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...SEA BREEZES WILL BE
LIMITED TO FAVORED LEEWARD AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH ABUNDANT LEEWARD SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. RETURN FLOW AND SEA BREEZES WILL CAUSE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN THE SHORT TERM AND MAY MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE HIGH EDGES CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS...TRADES WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS AND THE BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD SLOPES BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HINT AT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST THAT WOULD LEAD TO LIGHTER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER A STABLE AND
SUBSIDENT AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEPTH AND KEEP TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SRN HEMI SWELL CONTINUES TO FILL IN ALONG S FACING SHORES. THE
KILO NALU BUOY IS SHOWING A VERY GRADUAL INCREASING TREND.
FORERUNNERS FROM THIS SWELL SHOWED A LITTLE LATER FORECAST...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD THRU THE DAY. THIS MORNING SURF IS RUNNING
MOSTLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE. THE LARGEST SURF RUNNING SEVERAL FT
OVERHEAD IS STILL IMPACTING TOP FOCAL REEFS/BEACHES. SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS THRU SUN. AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SE SWELL FROM THE 135-145 DEG BAND IS
EXPECTED TODAY THRU THE WKND AS WELL POSSIBLY REACHING THE 3-5 FT
RANGE OR ROUGHLY HEAD HIGH...MAYBE SOME LARGER SETS. A GENERAL
DECREASING TREND IN SURF FROM THE SRN HEMI WILL BEGIN GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS TRADES INCREASE...CHOPPY ROUGH SURF ALONG WINDWARD
SHORES/REEFS WILL INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD.

WONT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY/CFW THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY. ANY MVFR
CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD TERRAIN AS TRADES
INCREASE TODAY. AS TRADES RAMP UP...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN LLVL
MOD CHOP BUT NOTHING WORTHY OF AN AIRMET RIGHT AWAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

$$
UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION...DEJESUS
PREVIOUS...POWELL