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000
FXUS65 KBOI 052039
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION IS
GOING UP ACROSS THE REGION. IN OUR CWA...LIGHTNING WAS FIRST
NOTED IN THE OWYHEES JUST AFTER 2 PM MDT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND NEAR AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER FAR SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELPING
TO DRIVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP TO THE HIGHEST READINGS SO FAR
THIS SUMMER. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BE
REPLACED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR MOST OF THIS
COMING WEEK. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST...MEANING MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...BUT RATHER WILL STALL TO OUR WEST AND THEN
WEAKEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL PUSH A SECOND
COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER COOL THE TEMPERATURES...
RESULTING IN HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 60S AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST THAT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS AROUND BAKER AND MCCALL WHICH STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. UPPER TROUGH
SPLITS INTO TWO MAIN PARTS...ONE WHICH PUSHES EAST AND THE OTHER
WHICH HANGS OFF THE PACNW COAST THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. 12Z GFS NOW COMING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF DEPICTION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY. BASED
ON THIS...WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG
WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KMYL
AND KBKE AREAS. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF A
DRY COLD FRONT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/BB
AVIATION.....JS
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000
FXUS65 KPIH 051953
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME LEFT
OVER MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE FCST AREA. A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE CEN MTNS AND ALONG THE DIVIDE THIS AFTN. EXPECT THESE TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MTNS...WITH ISOLD TSTMS IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THRU EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE
PAST 2 DAYS DUE TO LESS AVAILABLE MONSOON MOISTURE. PW VALUES
RUNNING NEAR 0.80 IN...OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. COULD STILL
SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL FROM THESE STORMS.
A LARGE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT...WITH A MINOR AXIS
ROTATING THRU NRN ID ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...SO WILL ONLY CARRY LOW CHC POPS OVER
THE NRN FCST AREA MTNS. A LONG WAVE TROF PATTERN REMAINS OFF THE W
COAST THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SW FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...AND KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE NORTH. TEMPS FALL BACK BY TUE AS UPPER HEIGHTS DECREASE
WITH THE DOMINANCE OF THE LONG WAVE. ONLY LOW CHC POPS OVER THE NRN
MTNS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HEDGES
&&
.AVIATION...-TSRA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE
INTO AIRPORTS THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY AIRDROME IS KIDA...BUT
STILL NOT ENOUGH TO GO FOR A TEMPO GROUP UNLESS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE STORM WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER...THUS WILL KEEP IT VCTS AND
AMEND AS NECESSARY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH...SO SOME TSRA
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
TIME. LIGHT WIND CONTINUES...ALL AIRPORTS VFR FOR CEILING. MESSICK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINING AGAIN FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE HAS DECREASED
AND DO NOT EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO REACH ANYWHERE NEAR THE INTENSITY
OF SAT. DRYING WILL CONTINUE ON MON...THEN A DRY COLD FRONT ON MON
AFTERNOON/EVE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME WIND TO INCREASE AS JETSTREAM FINALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD AND OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. RESURGENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST WEEK WILL MEAN A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND...ALTHOUGH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO HAVE A NORTHERN LIMIT SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL
UTAH. MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 051632
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1032 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AN ACCAS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AND
IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO. THIS CLOUD FIELD MERITS WATCHING FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS OUT AHEAD OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A JET STREAK
MOVING TOWARD SE OREGON FROM NRN CA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVEN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ADD THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.
THEREFORE...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE PROVEN THAT
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
AREA OF MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY...IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE IN THIS
TYPE OF FLOW. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY BE SPREAD OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WE WOULD LIKE TO BE ABLE TO RULE OUT STORMS IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WOULD BE BEST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...A MENTION OF STORMS WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE TREASURE VALLEY. UPDATE OUT BY 1130 AM MDT.
&&
.AVIATION...EXCEPT FOR MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS REMAIN
VFR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
WHICH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 17Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE IDAHO
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
YEAR SO FAR WILL BE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA WITH SE DOWNSLOPE
SURFACE WINDS AIDING IN THE WARMING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO
THE HEATING WILL BE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
BE SWEPT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST TURNS THE FLOW SWLY. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL
MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES TODAY. MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE MONDAY WILL BE
DRY. POST-FRONTAL W-NW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW
FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD INTO
MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST THAT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS
AROUND BAKER AND MCCALL WHICH STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODELS AGREE THAT BY THURSDAY THE TROUGH WILL
SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN PARTS...ONE WHICH PUSHES EAST AND THE OTHER
WHICH HANGS OFF THE PACNW COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT FOR OUR CWA
WILL BE A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BUT RETURN
TO AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DF
PREV LONG TERM....BW
000
FXUS65 KBOI 051256 CCA
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
655 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
YEAR SO FAR WILL BE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA WITH SE DOWNSLOPE
SURFACE WINDS AIDING IN THE WARMING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO
THE HEATING WILL BE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
BE SWEPT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST TURNS THE FLOW SWLY. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL
MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES TODAY. MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE MONDAY WILL BE
DRY. POST-FRONTAL W-NW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW
FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD INTO
MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST THAT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS
AROUND BAKER AND MCCALL WHICH STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODELS AGREE THAT BY THURSDAY THE TROUGH WILL
SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN PARTS...ONE WHICH PUSHES EAST AND THE OTHER
WHICH HANGS OFF THE PACNW COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT FOR OUR CWA
WILL BE A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BUT RETURN
TO AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KBKE TO
NORTH OF KREO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING KONO...AND POSSIBLY
KBOI...THROUGH 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
000
FXUS65 KPIH 050926
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
326 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO
EASTERN IDAHO TODAY WITH A SMALL UPPER WAVE ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS. HEAVY RAINFALL...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AGAIN A THREAT. COVERAGE MAY BE LESS
TODAY DUE TO MOISTURE BEING MORE LIMITED AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED ISOLATED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LIMITED TO ISOLATED CHANCES IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH STALLS IN THE NORTHWEST AND ROTATES SEVERAL
WAVES ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEK. EASTERN
IDAHO...HOWEVER...REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH WHERE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND WITH THE TROUGH
NEARBY. HANKO
&&
.AVIATION...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AGAIN REMAIN OVER THE REGION
AND EXPECT ISOLATED VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ONCE AGAIN. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART UNLESS DIRECTLY UNDER HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS.
GK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED VALLEY AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FUELS ARE STILL WELL FROM
CURED OUT AND THUS SEE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER. GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 050902
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
302 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
YEAR SO FAR WILL BE TOMORROW AS HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
THERMAL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA WITH SE DOWNSLOPE
SURFACE WINDS AIDING IN THE WARMING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO
THE HEATING WILL BE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
BE SWEPT EASTWARD TODAY AS THE DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST TURNS THE FLOW SWLY. THEREFORE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL
MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES TODAY. MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...OTHERWISE MONDAY WILL BE
DRY. POST-FRONTAL W-NW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW
FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD INTO
MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST THAT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS
AROUND BAKER AND MCCALL WHICH STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODELS AGREE THAT BY THURSDAY THE TROUGH WILL
SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN PARTS...ONE WHICH PUSHES EAST AND THE OTHER
WHICH HANGS OFF THE PACNW COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RESULT FOR OUR CWA
WILL BE A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BUT RETURN
TO AT LEAST NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR KBKE TO
NORTH OF KREO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING KONO...AND POSSIBLY
KBOI...THROUGH 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
000
FXUS65 KBOI 050246
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY AND WHAT
LITTLE THERE IS HAS BEEN DECREASING THIS EVENING. FORECASTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY
AS 850-700 MB THICKNESS REACHES MAXIMUM VALUES. BOISE/S FORECAST
THICKNESS OF 1675M EQUATES TO A MAX TEMP OF 98F. SURFACE COLD FRONT
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL INITIATE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRONT ITSELF LOOKS DRY AND EARLY
MORNING ARRIVAL IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. USING
850-700 MB THICKNESS AGAIN WE GET A MAX TEMP AT BOI NEAR 80F ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...A FULL 10F
BELOW NORMAL. THE CORE OF COOL AIR IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE NW
COAST FOR A WEEK AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT IN OUR CWA ESPCIALLY
IN OREGON ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS PROGGED DURING THAT
TIME.
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXPERIENCE SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM OUTFLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS TO AVIATION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND
INCREASE AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. STRONG WINDS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD FAR BEYOND THE LOCAL VICINITY OF THE
STORMS. THESE WINDS ARE KNOWN AS OUTFLOW WINDS...SO BE PREPARED FOR
GUSTY WINDS EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT NEAR A THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IF
YOU LIVE IN THE TREASURE OR MAGIC VALLEYS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN
OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...RESULTING IN WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WILL BE
TOMORROW...AS TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH A
RIDGE ALOFT...WILL MAKE FOR TOASTY TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO BE SWEPT EASTWARD TOMORROW...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES.
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE HITS MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND REDUCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY
INTO THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 80S FOR THOSE FOLKS THAT
HAVE BEEN IN THE 90S FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BECAUSE DRY AIR
ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT...THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND...TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST DAY BEING WEDNESDAY. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWEST STARTING FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ACROSS EAST/CENTRAL OREGON AS
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO WESTERN IDAHO. FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED UPPER RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS...HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE PACNW COAST WHICH
WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL AND LIMIT MOISTURE FROM THE
SW.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/BB
000
FXUS65 KPIH 050246
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
846 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES THIS EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS QUICKLY DECREASING. FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN
THE POCATELLO AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MDT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
THREAT OF RUN OFF FROM NOT ONE BUT TWO BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY
OFTEN TAKES A LITTLE EXTRA TIME TO WIND DOWN. PRECIPITATION AT THE
POCATELLO REGIONAL AIRPORT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WAS 1.33 INCH.
THE MAXIMUM RAIN FALL FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS 2.28 INCH IN 1984.
THE TOTAL FOR JULY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS 2.27 INCH WHICH LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HOLD THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE...
ALTHOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT OVER THE FCST AREA. MINOR
WAVES IN THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH SFC HEATING ARE DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS AGAIN THIS AFTN. TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CEN MTNS AND
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...AND A FEW WILL MOVE INTO THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN BEFORE THEY ALL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. PW VALUES NEAR
0.90 INS AGAIN THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SPOTS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE INTO MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR TSTMS EACH DAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE DECREASES. AN UPPER TROF
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON MONDAY...BUT NEVER MAKES IT TO ID. DRIER SW
FLOW DOMINATES THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...BUT HEIGHTS FALL
OVER THE PAC NW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. HEDGES
AVIATION...LESS COVERAGE OF -TSRA EXPECTED TODAY...WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY TO BRING IN -TSRA AS THEY APPROACH EACH AIRPORT.
CONTINUED VFR CIG/VSBY AND LIGHT WIND OUTSIDE OF -TSRA. MESSICK
FIRE WEATHER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
STILL WILL MEAN THE LAST ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER
LEVEL WIND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND GUSTY WIND WILL BECOME MORE
OF A FACTOR BEGINNING MON. HUMIDITY WILL START TO DRY OUT AND
SHOULD SEE SOME RETURN OF SINGLE DIGIT RH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING RIGHT NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS. FUELS ARE
STILL WELL FROM CURED OUT AND THUS SEE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER.
MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 050246
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
846 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY AND WHAT
LITTLE THERE IS HAS BEEN DECREASING THIS EVENING. FORECASTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY
AS 850-700 MB THICKNESS REACHES MAXIMUM VALUES. BOISE/S FORECAST
THICKNESS OF 1675M EQUATES TO A MAX TEMP OF 98F. SURFACE COLD FRONT
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL INITIATE A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRONT ITSELF LOOKS DRY AND EARLY
MORNING ARRIVAL IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. USING
850-700 MB THICKNESS AGAIN WE GET A MAX TEMP AT BOI NEAR 80F ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS...A FULL 10F
BELOW NORMAL. THE CORE OF COOL AIR IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE NW
COAST FOR A WEEK AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT IN OUR CWA ESPCIALLY
IN OREGON ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS PROGGED DURING THAT
TIME.
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXPERIENCE SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM OUTFLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS TO AVIATION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND
INCREASE AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. STRONG WINDS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD FAR BEYOND THE LOCAL VICINITY OF THE
STORMS. THESE WINDS ARE KNOWN AS OUTFLOW WINDS...SO BE PREPARED FOR
GUSTY WINDS EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT NEAR A THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IF
YOU LIVE IN THE TREASURE OR MAGIC VALLEYS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN
OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...RESULTING IN WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WILL BE
TOMORROW...AS TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH A
RIDGE ALOFT...WILL MAKE FOR TOASTY TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO BE SWEPT EASTWARD TOMORROW...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES.
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE HITS MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND REDUCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY
INTO THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 80S FOR THOSE FOLKS THAT
HAVE BEEN IN THE 90S FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BECAUSE DRY AIR
ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT...THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND...TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST DAY BEING WEDNESDAY. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWEST STARTING FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ACROSS EAST/CENTRAL OREGON AS
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO WESTERN IDAHO. FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED UPPER RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS...HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE PACNW COAST WHICH
WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL AND LIMIT MOISTURE FROM THE
SW.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/BB
000
FXUS65 KPIH 050246
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
846 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES THIS EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS QUICKLY DECREASING. FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN
THE POCATELLO AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM MDT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
THREAT OF RUN OFF FROM NOT ONE BUT TWO BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY
OFTEN TAKES A LITTLE EXTRA TIME TO WIND DOWN. PRECIPITATION AT THE
POCATELLO REGIONAL AIRPORT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WAS 1.33 INCH.
THE MAXIMUM RAIN FALL FOR THE MONTH OF JULY WAS 2.28 INCH IN 1984.
THE TOTAL FOR JULY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS 2.27 INCH WHICH LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HOLD THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 138 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE...
ALTHOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT OVER THE FCST AREA. MINOR
WAVES IN THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH SFC HEATING ARE DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS AGAIN THIS AFTN. TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CEN MTNS AND
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...AND A FEW WILL MOVE INTO THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN BEFORE THEY ALL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. PW VALUES NEAR
0.90 INS AGAIN THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SPOTS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE INTO MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR TSTMS EACH DAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE DECREASES. AN UPPER TROF
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON MONDAY...BUT NEVER MAKES IT TO ID. DRIER SW
FLOW DOMINATES THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...BUT HEIGHTS FALL
OVER THE PAC NW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. HEDGES
AVIATION...LESS COVERAGE OF -TSRA EXPECTED TODAY...WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY TO BRING IN -TSRA AS THEY APPROACH EACH AIRPORT.
CONTINUED VFR CIG/VSBY AND LIGHT WIND OUTSIDE OF -TSRA. MESSICK
FIRE WEATHER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
STILL WILL MEAN THE LAST ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER
LEVEL WIND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND GUSTY WIND WILL BECOME MORE
OF A FACTOR BEGINNING MON. HUMIDITY WILL START TO DRY OUT AND
SHOULD SEE SOME RETURN OF SINGLE DIGIT RH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING RIGHT NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS. FUELS ARE
STILL WELL FROM CURED OUT AND THUS SEE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER.
MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 042043
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND
INCREASE AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. STRONG WINDS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD FAR BEYOND THE LOCAL VICINITY OF THE
STORMS. THESE WINDS ARE KNOWN AS OUTFLOW WINDS...SO BE PREPARED FOR
GUSTY WINDS EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT NEAR A THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
IF YOU LIVE IN THE TREASURE OR MAGIC VALLEYS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL
REMAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...RESULTING IN
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER SO
FAR WILL BE TOMORROW...AS TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...COMBINED WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...WILL MAKE FOR TOASTY
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SWEPT EASTWARD
TOMORROW...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES.
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE HITS MONDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND REDUCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY
INTO THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 80S FOR THOSE FOLKS THAT
HAVE BEEN IN THE 90S FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BECAUSE DRY AIR
ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT...THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT FOR COOLER AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND...TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE COLDEST DAY BEING
WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWEST STARTING FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
ACROSS EAST/CENTRAL OREGON AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO WESTERN IDAHO. FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED UPPER
RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...HOWEVER AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE PACNW COAST WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL AND LIMIT MOISTURE FROM THE SW.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING...WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH STRONGER CELLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IN SE OREGON WILL RESULT IN
LESS CONVECTION. MAIN AVIATION THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL
BE SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM OUTFLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/BB
AVIATION.....JS
000
FXUS65 KPIH 041939
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
138 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGING IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE...
ALTHOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT OVER THE FCST AREA. MINOR
WAVES IN THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH SFC HEATING ARE DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS AGAIN THIS AFTN. TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CEN MTNS AND
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...AND A FEW WILL MOVE INTO THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN BEFORE THEY ALL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. PW VALUES NEAR
0.90 INS AGAIN THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SPOTS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE INTO MONDAY...WITH DECREASING CHANCES
FOR TSTMS EACH DAY AS MONSOON MOISTURE DECREASES. AN UPPER TROF
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON MONDAY...BUT NEVER MAKES IT TO ID. DRIER SW
FLOW DOMINATES THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD...BUT HEIGHTS FALL
OVER THE PAC NW BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. HEDGES
&&
.AVIATION...LESS COVERAGE OF -TSRA EXPECTED TODAY...WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY TO BRING IN -TSRA AS THEY APPROACH EACH AIRPORT.
CONTINUED VFR CIG/VSBY AND LIGHT WIND OUTSIDE OF -TSRA. MESSICK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
STILL WILL MEAN THE LAST ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LESS THAN YESTERDAY. UPPER
LEVEL WIND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND GUSTY WIND WILL BECOME MORE
OF A FACTOR BEGINNING MON. HUMIDITY WILL START TO DRY OUT AND
SHOULD SEE SOME RETURN OF SINGLE DIGIT RH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING RIGHT NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS. FUELS ARE
STILL WELL FROM CURED OUT AND THUS SEE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER.
MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 041608
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1008 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME STORMS IN THE WEST AS WELL. PW VALUES ARE STILL HIGH...BUT
MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z AND LASTING
THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
STRONGER CELLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
DRIER AIR IN SE OREGON WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION. MAIN
AVIATION THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS
FROM OUTFLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN TODAY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST THREAT
REMAINS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO AND
THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL ID EASTWARD...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ID HIGHLANDS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ID EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT FOR THE 4TH...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT THEN WILL GET EVEN HOTTER FOR SUNDAY. A DIGGING TROUGH
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE CWA AND DOWN
SLOPING SE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL AID IN WARMING
THE TREASURE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO
SE OREGON SUNDAY...BUT STILL HAVE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. A MAJOR PATTERN
SHIFT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING EACH
DAY AND BOTTOMING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED UPPER HIGH RE-STRENGTHENS NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH HANGING OFF THE PAC NW COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RETURNING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST
AND NORTH OF THE TREASURE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH EVEN THERE POPS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DF
PREV LONG TERM....BW
000
FXUS65 KBOI 040906
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN TODAY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BEST THREAT
REMAINS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO AND
THROUGH ALL OF CENTRAL ID EASTWARD...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ID HIGHLANDS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ID EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT FOR THE 4TH...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT THEN WILL GET EVEN HOTTER FOR SUNDAY. A DIGGING TROUGH
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE CWA AND DOWN
SLOPING SE SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL AID IN WARMING
THE TREASURE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE CENTURY MARK FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO
SE OREGON SUNDAY...BUT STILL HAVE MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. A MAJOR PATTERN
SHIFT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE PAC NW.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING EACH
DAY AND BOTTOMING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED UPPER HIGH RE-STRENGTHENS NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH HANGING OFF THE PAC NW COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS RETURNING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST
AND NORTH OF THE TREASURE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH EVEN THERE POPS ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN SE OREGON WITH
CIGS ABOVE 15K FEET MSL WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFT 18Z AND LASTING
THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING
STRONGER CELLS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
DRIER AIR IN SE OREGON WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION. MAIN AVIATION
THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM OUTFLOW.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
000
FXUS65 KPIH 040853
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
253 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BY THIS EVENING...THE WAVE WILL
PASS EAST OF THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER
IDAHO. MONSOONAL MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE LIMITED BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST STARTING ON MONDAY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED
TSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS MIDWEEK AND ONWARD...AND THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING MID-WEEK BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT CONTINUED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY
ALL TAF SITES AGAIN AND WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE IF TEMPO OR
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS REQUIRED LATER IN THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY. GK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS AS WELL
BY TUESDAY. GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 040343
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
940 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LONE SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS
TODAY DRIVEN BY THERMAL AND TERRAIN FACTORS WITH SHEAR LACKING
AGAIN. THUS...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WAS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. ONE CELL IN EASTERN
OREGON DID GET INTERESTING WITH A DUAL DVIL CORE OF 80 AND STORM TOP
REACHING 50K. SEVERE ISSUED ON THIS ONE BUT CELL WAS OVER THE REMOTE
OWYHEE CANYONLANDS. OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM MERGING CELLS
PRODUCED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. VERY LITTLE RAIN NOTED OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN FLANK ALLOWED STORMS TO
PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL. LOOKING FOR A REPEAT ON THE 4TH...BUT STILL
NO EVIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. BETTER WIND AND
SHEAR PROFILES NOT OVER THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY BUT
THEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE DECREASE. NO UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT
IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15K-25K FEET MSL OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR FORECAST FOR SAT/SUN
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN AVIATION
THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM
OUTFLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT FOR THE 4TH...AND THEN GET EVEN
HOTTER FOR THE 5TH. TEMPS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...BUT THIS
TIME MAINLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT
BEGINS LATE SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
PAC NW.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE ON THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS OUR CWA UNDER A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER...DISPLACED AROUND 400 MILES SOUTH
OF ITS NORMAL SUMMER POSITION. WE ARE WEIGHTING BOTH POPS AND
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE FAVORED ECMWF...AND CLIMATOLOGY. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD THE
CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET AND COOLER AIR ALOFT...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER AREA REMAINING DRY. WE ARE HOLDING POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MINS UP TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...GS
PREV DISCUSSION...SP
LONG TERM....JT/MT
AVIATION.....DG
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