000
FXUS63 KIND 051105
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS
TAFS START OUT WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS EXCEPT KLAF WHICH WILL BE JUST
ABOVE IFR. DRY START AT TAF SITES THOUGH A LINGERING HOUR OF DRIZZLE
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIND AND KBMG AS 700MB TROF REMAINS JUST
NORTH VCNTY KLAF. SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF 700 MB TROF AXIS SHOULD BRING
IMPROVMENTS IN CIGS ABOVE 2KFT AND VSBY TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z.
CONTINUED RISING IN CLOUD DECKS AS TEMPS WARM AND THINNING OF DECKS
TO SCT COVERAGE BY 21Z KLAF BUT NOT TIL 06/00Z OTHER SITES. DRYING
WILL ONLY BE GRADUAL TODAY SO A GOOD CHC FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATE
TNGT WITH WET GROUND...CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING CLOSE TO CURRENT VALUES.

&&


.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE DEPARTURE OF RAIN AND CLOUDS TODAY.

THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF
KSTL ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LAKES REGION. ALOFT AT H5 THE PATTERN SHOWED GENERALLY A
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.

THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND WERE REMARKABLY SIMILAR ON TEMPS
AND POPS THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE.

FOR TODAY THE QUESTIONS WILL BE ON THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIP AND
CLOUDS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS TENNESSEE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COME TO AN END. HOWEVER IT
WILL BE SLOWER FOR CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO END. THE TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND WEAK UPWARD MOTION IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL MID MORNING. SO WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SOME DRIZZLE
IN CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE UPWARD MOTION SEEMS TO
BE CAUSED BY A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL NOT REALLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL 18Z.

WITH THE TROUGHING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL BE PESSIMISTIC ON CLEARING SKIES
AND NOT DO SO VERY QUICKLY. BY EVENING THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR
ARRIVING AS THE TROUGH FINALLY PASSES BUT UNTIL THEN WILL KEEP
CLOUDINESS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TODAY IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES. BUT WITH CLOUDS AND A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THE TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLEARING HAPPENS.

OVERNIGHT MORE CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY FALL
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE H5 LOW NORTH OF THE LAKES WOBBLES SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN RURAL SPOTS BUT REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S IN URBAN LOCATIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR DAYS AS THE H5
TROUGHING CARVES OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SLOWS THE PATTERN
DOWN. THE H8 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND +15C BOTH DAYS WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE A GOOD MIX INTO THE MID 80S.

BY MID AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT
LESS CERTAIN. THE GENERAL QUESTION WILL HINGE AROUND THE MOVEMENT
OF ENERGY FROM A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
H5 RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY
WEDNESDAY. ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN ENCOUNTER THIS
RIDGE AND THE QUESTION FOR INDIANA WEATHER WILL BE IF THIS ENERGY
CAN REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH AND NOT BE DAMPENED BY THE RIDGE. THE
GFS MODEL IS SHOWING QPF BY THURSDAY AND THE NAM IS HINTING AT
PRECIP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL WARM STEADILY BY LATE WEEK AS HOTTER WEATHER
ARRIVES WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG PLAINS RIDGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...DT
PUBLIC...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIWX 051017
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
615 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.AVIATION...

LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS
SUN ANGLE INCREASES AND MIXING BEGINS. MID CLOUD DECK MOVED BACK
NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO KFWA AND HELPED BRING VIS UP THERE. EXPECT A
VFR CIG WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CU RULE INDICATING
SCT-BKN DECK AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BUT REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA BUT CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH AND DENSE
FOG HAS FORMED IN THE NORTH WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING AND CALM WINDS
OCCURRED. LOW PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL SLOWLY FOLLOW AND SAG SOUTH
TODAY. DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA...LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE VIS HAS BEEN
REPORTED DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z UNLESS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LAKES REGION AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW. NAM TRYING
TO DEVELOP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EACH WAVE BUT THIS LOOKS
OVERDONE AS BEST DYNAMICS WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL
HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY FOR COMBINATION OF DEPARTING CLOUDS
IN SOUTH AND ANY CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVE.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR 80 MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY
WILL HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGHS
WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AT START OF THE PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH STG WAA SURGE BETWEEN TUES AFTN AND WEDS NGT.
GFS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS SHOWED A MCS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED WAA SET TO MOVE IN BY
THURS. MUCH OF THIS HAS BEEN THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE 00Z NAM12 HAS COME IN
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TUES AFTN INTO WEDS
MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT OUT OF WHACK CONSIDERING BEST DYNAMICS
AND LL FLOW WILL REMAIN FURTHER NW. 00Z GFS MAY BE HANDLING THINGS A
BIT BETTER WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY
TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA
WEDS AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS HAVE SOME PLAUSIBILITY WITH SIMILAR
PATTERNS RECENTLY GIVING THE AREA AT LEAST REMNANTS OF MCS ACTIVITY.
THAT BEING SAID...THE 21Z SREF...00Z GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF ALL POINT
TOWARDS THE NE DRIER FLOW WINNING THE BATTLE AND HOLDING ANY PRECIP
WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MEN NUMBERS CAME IN WITH A LARGE SPREAD
IN POPS FOR WEDS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 10 TO 11. COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES RESULTED IN A CONSENSUS THAT AT THIS POINT
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE NEXT DAY OR 2 TO SEE IF MODELS COME INTO ANY
AGREEMENT.

UNTIL THIS WAA MOVES IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 INTO WEDS WITH SURGE OF WARMER AIR ARRIVING FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AOA 20 C. RESULTANT INCREASING
TEMPS AND SLOW INCREASE IN DEWPTS WILL GIVE INCREASING INSTABILITY
THURS AND FRI AFTERNOON. NO REAL FOCUS FOR ANYTHING TO POP ON
THURS...BUT A COLD FRONT MAY BE ENTERING THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRI
NGT TO GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. NEW ECMWF SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT COULD BE MORE INTO SAT BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS AS IS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-004.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

000
FXUS63 KIWX 050745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
345 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

RAIN HAS EXITED THE AREA BUT CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE SOUTH AND DENSE
FOG HAS FORMED IN THE NORTH WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING AND CALM WINDS
OCCURRED. LOW PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA.
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL SLOWLY FOLLOW AND SAG SOUTH
TODAY. DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA...LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE VIS HAS BEEN
REPORTED DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z UNLESS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LAKES REGION AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW. NAM TRYING
TO DEVELOP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EACH WAVE BUT THIS LOOKS
OVERDONE AS BEST DYNAMICS WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL
HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY FOR COMBINATION OF DEPARTING CLOUDS
IN SOUTH AND ANY CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVE.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR 80 MOST AREAS.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY
WILL HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGHS
WILL BE FEW DEGREES WARMER MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AT START OF THE PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH STG WAA SURGE BETWEEN TUES AFTN AND WEDS NGT.
GFS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS SHOWED A MCS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED WAA SET TO MOVE IN BY
THURS. MUCH OF THIS HAS BEEN THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE 00Z NAM12 HAS COME IN
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TUES AFTN INTO WEDS
MORNING...WHICH SEEMS A BIT OUT OF WHACK CONSIDERING BEST DYNAMICS
AND LL FLOW WILL REMAIN FURTHER NW. 00Z GFS MAY BE HANDLING THINGS A
BIT BETTER WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY
TRACKING ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA
WEDS AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS HAVE SOME PLAUSIBILITY WITH SIMILAR
PATTERNS RECENTLY GIVING THE AREA AT LEAST REMNANTS OF MCS ACTIVITY.
THAT BEING SAID...THE 21Z SREF...00Z GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF ALL POINT
TOWARDS THE NE DRIER FLOW WINNING THE BATTLE AND HOLDING ANY PRECIP
WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MEN NUMBERS CAME IN WITH A LARGE SPREAD
IN POPS FOR WEDS AND STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 10 TO 11. COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES RESULTED IN A CONSENSUS THAT AT THIS POINT
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE NEXT DAY OR 2 TO SEE IF MODELS COME INTO ANY
AGREEMENT.

UNTIL THIS WAA MOVES IN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 INTO WEDS WITH SURGE OF WARMER AIR ARRIVING FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AOA 20 C. RESULTANT INCREASING
TEMPS AND SLOW INCREASE IN DEWPTS WILL GIVE INCREASING INSTABILITY
THURS AND FRI AFTERNOON. NO REAL FOCUS FOR ANYTHING TO POP ON
THURS...BUT A COLD FRONT MAY BE ENTERING THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRI
NGT TO GIVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. NEW ECMWF SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT COULD BE MORE INTO SAT BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
THINGS AS IS.


&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN WITH DENSE FOG. KFWA HAS HAD HIGHER CLOUDS
WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS IN IFR TO MVFR RANGE BUT EXPECT SOME
DETERIORATION AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE TO VFR BY MID MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-004.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

000
FXUS63 KIND 050734
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE DEPARTURE OF RAIN AND CLOUDS TODAY.

THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF
KSTL ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND A COLD FRONT TRAILS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LAKES REGION. ALOFT AT H5 THE PATTERN SHOWED GENERALLY A
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.

THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND WERE REMARKABLY SIMILAR ON TEMPS
AND POPS THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE.

FOR TODAY THE QUESTIONS WILL BE ON THE DEPARTURE OF PRECIP AND
CLOUDS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS TENNESSEE BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL COME TO AN END. HOWEVER IT
WILL BE SLOWER FOR CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE TO END. THE TIME HEIGHTS
SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND WEAK UPWARD MOTION IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL MID MORNING. SO WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SOME DRIZZLE
IN CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE UPWARD MOTION SEEMS TO
BE CAUSED BY A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL NOT REALLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL 18Z.

WITH THE TROUGHING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL BE PESSIMISTIC ON CLEARING SKIES
AND NOT DO SO VERY QUICKLY. BY EVENING THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR
ARRIVING AS THE TROUGH FINALLY PASSES BUT UNTIL THEN WILL KEEP
CLOUDINESS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. FOR HIGHS TODAY IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES. BUT WITH CLOUDS AND A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE THE TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT IN
THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLEARING HAPPENS.

OVERNIGHT MORE CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY FALL
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS THE H5 LOW NORTH OF THE LAKES WOBBLES SOUTH.
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN RURAL SPOTS BUT REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S IN URBAN LOCATIONS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR DAYS AS THE H5
TROUGHING CARVES OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SLOWS THE PATTERN
DOWN. THE H8 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND +15C BOTH DAYS WHICH WILL
EXPERIENCE A GOOD MIX INTO THE MID 80S.

BY MID AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT
LESS CERTAIN. THE GENERAL QUESTION WILL HINGE AROUND THE MOVEMENT
OF ENERGY FROM A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
H5 RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY
WEDNESDAY. ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN ENCOUNTER THIS
RIDGE AND THE QUESTION FOR INDIANA WEATHER WILL BE IF THIS ENERGY
CAN REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH AND NOT BE DAMPENED BY THE RIDGE. THE
GFS MODEL IS SHOWING QPF BY THURSDAY AND THE NAM IS HINTING AT
PRECIP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL WARM STEADILY BY LATE WEEK AS HOTTER WEATHER
ARRIVES WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG PLAINS RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS
TAFS WILL START OUT WITH IFR CIGS EXCEPT KLAF WHICH WILL BE
JUST ABOVE IFR. DRY START AT KLAF AND KHUF WHILE DRIZZLE TO END AT
KIND BEFORE 07Z AND KBMG BY 08Z. LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF KSTL
WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KEVV BY 12Z AND TO ERN TN BY 06/00Z. VERY
MOIST AIR DRAWN NORTH BY THE LOW YIELDING AN AREA OF MAINLY IFR CIGS
EXTENDED N AND NE OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFT DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AROUND 08Z. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AS SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT
CLOUD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTN. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SH/DT
PUBLIC...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIND 050520
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
120 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS
TAFS WILL START OUT WITH IFR CIGS EXCEPT KLAF WHICH WILL BE
JUST ABOVE IFR. DRY START AT KLAF AND KHUF WHILE DRIZZLE TO END AT
KIND BEFORE 07Z AND KBMG BY 08Z. LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF KSTL
WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KEVV BY 12Z AND TO ERN TN BY 06/00Z. VERY
MOIST AIR DRAWN NORTH BY THE LOW YIELDING AN AREA OF MAINLY IFR CIGS
EXTENDED N AND NE OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFT DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AROUND 08Z. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AS SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT
CLOUD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTN. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AROUND 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z INDICATED A SURFACE LOW STILL
OVER NW MISSOURI. RADAR LOOPS SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM INDIANA WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PRECIP
WAS DIMINISHING RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PLACED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A S/W ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUED WILL BE HOW QUICKLY RAIN WILL END TONIGHT AND
WHETHER TO MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE S/W OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS WILL HAVE TO DELAY ENDING OF SHOWERS A
BIT.  NAM INDICATES MU CAPES OF ABOUT 500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND WITH VERY LOW VALUES ELSEWHERE. WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE LITTLE OR NO
LIGHTNING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  BOTH NAM/GFS KEEP QUIET A BIT OF UVV
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS GRADUALLY DECREASE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS
WESTERN KENTUCKY.  WILL MENTION 20 PERCENT POPS IN OUR FAR SE SUNDAY
MORNING AS MODELS NOW SHOWING A LITTLE QPF AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MOST OF OUR
REGION INTO SUNDAY.  THEY MAY SCATTER OUT IN OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY AND
IN OUR SOUTH BY EVENING.

QUIET WEATHER AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.  BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OUR
WAY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S IN OUR SW BY
THURSDAY AND ALL AREAS BY FRIDAY.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTH
LATE FRIDAY AND IN OUR SOUTH INTO SATURDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

AS FAR AS SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WILL GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOS VALUES TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDS.  ON SUNDAY WILL GO A
LITTLE COOLER IN OUR SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THERE THE
LONGEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SH/DT
PUBLIC...CP/LJ

000
FXUS63 KIWX 050011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
811 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION/UPDATE...
WK SW OVR WRN IN SPRTG SMALL BUT ENHANCED AREA OF SHRA OVR NW IN
THIS EVENING BUT WHICH WILL CONT SEWD RATHER QUICKLY W/UPSTREAM
DRYING OVR NRN IL/SRN MI SPREADING SWD. DVLPG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL LIKELY RETARD DEGREE OF CLRG W/SEWD EXTENT OVERNIGHT BUT DO XPC
ENOUGH BREAKS TO WARRANT COOLER END OF GUIDANCE TEMPS AND HAVE ADDED
PATCHY FOG MENTION TO SW HALF LATE.

OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDS XPCD OVERNIGHT W/MVFR VIS RESTRICTION
AT KFWA TWD SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MISSOURI MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. BROAD AREA OF PRECIP IN ASCENT REGION NORTH OF A WEAK LLEVEL
BNDRY HAS BEEN TRACKING OUT OF ILLINOIS INTO WEST AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS FALLING FROM
ELEVATED LAYER AND FIGHTING DRIER AIR BELOW KEEPING AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT THUS FAR. WITH MAIN LLEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING TO OUR SE
AND FORCING FROM ASCENT WANING/FOLLOWING SAGGING BNDRY A CONTINUED
EROSION OF QPF TO THE NE IS EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...PERSISTENT
AREA OF LIGHT SHRA/DZ WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
LINGERING SCT LIGHT SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXTREMELY WARM AIR ALOFT ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS...AND NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED UPSTREAM ALL DAY...HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

12Z MODELS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS WITH QPF IN
THE NW TODAY...FEEL THINGS ARE BEING OVERDONE AND HAVE KEPT POPS
TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO PREV FCST.  UPR LOW THEN SAGS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC MOVES IN.
MODELS ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS SOUTH...BUT NOT WORTH A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED NW FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...
CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE ONTARIO AT START OF LONG TERM PD
MON MORNING WITH A RATHER SHARP RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH MID WEEK. 12Z NAM SUGGESTED A SGFNT SHRTWV IN THE NW FLOW
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS ON TUE. WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM
INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE OR NO QPF IN OUR AREA,
LEFT FCST FOR TUE DRY. SIMILAR PROBLEMS CROP UP ON WED AS GFS
SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRONGER WAA UPSTREAM OVER
THE UPR MS VALLEY AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE SE-EWD INTO OUR CWA. GFS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH ITS SOLUTION
AND SPREADING ITS QPF TOO FAR EAST INTO THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE REASONABLE IN KEEPING THIS WAA INDUCED
CONVECTION WEST OF OUR CWA ACROSS THE MID-UPR MS VALLEY WED... THUS
LEFT THIS PD DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
INDICATING A RATHER STRONG SHRTWV WILL MOVE OVER TOP OF THE PLAINS
RIDGE THU AND THROUGH THE GRTLKS FRI/SAT. WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV/CDFNT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION, SO ADDED
A CHC OF TSTMS TO FRI NGT.

AS FOR TEMPS, NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LOW TO OUR NE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS BLO NORMAL MON-TUE, WITH A SGFNT WARMING TREND WED-FRI AS UPR
RIDGE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH GRTLKS FRI/SAT WILL
DEEPEN TROF OVER ERN U.S. ONCE AGAIN WITH RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA CAUSING
TEMPS TO COOL DOWN TO AT OR BLO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOC WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI ERODING AS
THEY NEAR TERMINALS. WITH MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT LOCATED TO THE
SW AND NOT PROGGED TO MAKE MORE NW PROGRESS...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HAVE HANDLED KSBN WITH VCSH
WITH QUESTIONABLE PROGRESS AND LITTLE PRECIP FALLING UPSTREAM AT
KVPZ DESPITE ELEVATED 88D RETURNS. FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO FORCING
AT KFWA...TEMPO GROUP FOR PERIODIC LIGHT SHRA GRADUALLY WORKING IN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL REASSESS TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EVEN TO THE EAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL...AND HAVE KEPT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT E/NE
WINDS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION/UPDATE...T

000
FXUS63 KIND 042334
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
730 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS
TAFS WILL START OUT WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. LOW PRESSURE OVER
EXTREME NE MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AT 12Z. VERY
MOIST AIR WAS BEING PULLED UP AHEAD OF THE LOW. AN AREA OF MAINLY
IFR CIGS WAS NORTH OF THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT ENDING AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 12Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. AS IT DOES DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
INTO INDIANA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND 12Z-14Z. AS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VFR 16Z-18Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z INDICATED A SURFACE LOW STILL
OVER NW MISSOURI. RADAR LOOPS SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM INDIANA WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PRECIP
WAS DIMINISHING RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PLACED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A S/W ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUED WILL BE HOW QUICKLY RAIN WILL END TONIGHT AND
WHETHER TO MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE S/W OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS WILL HAVE TO DELAY ENDING OF SHOWERS A
BIT.  NAM INDICATES MU CAPES OF ABOUT 500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND WITH VERY LOW VALUES ELSEWHERE. WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE LITTLE OR NO
LIGHTNING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  BOTH NAM/GFS KEEP QUIET A BIT OF UVV
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS GRADUALLY DECREASE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS
WESTERN KENTUCKY.  WILL MENTION 20 PERCENT POPS IN OUR FAR SE SUNDAY
MORNING AS MODELS NOW SHOWING A LITTLE QPF AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MOST OF OUR
REGION INTO SUNDAY.  THEY MAY SCATTER OUT IN OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY AND
IN OUR SOUTH BY EVENING.

QUIET WEATHER AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.  BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OUR
WAY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S IN OUR SW BY
THURSDAY AND ALL AREAS BY FRIDAY.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTH
LATE FRIDAY AND IN OUR SOUTH INTO SATURDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

AS FAR AS SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WILL GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOS VALUES TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDS.  ON SUNDAY WILL GO A
LITTLE COOLER IN OUR SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THERE THE
LONGEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SH
PUBLIC...JH

000
FXUS63 KIWX 042241 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MISSOURI MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. BROAD AREA OF PRECIP IN ASCENT REGION NORTH OF A WEAK LLEVEL
BNDRY HAS BEEN TRACKING OUT OF ILLINOIS INTO WEST AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS FALLING FROM
ELEVATED LAYER AND FIGHTING DRIER AIR BELOW KEEPING AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT THUS FAR. WITH MAIN LLEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING TO OUR SE
AND FORCING FROM ASCENT WANING/FOLLOWING SAGGING BNDRY A CONTINUED
EROSION OF QPF TO THE NE IS EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...PERSISTENT
AREA OF LIGHT SHRA/DZ WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
LINGERING SCT LIGHT SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXTREMELY WARM AIR ALOFT ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS...AND NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED UPSTREAM ALL DAY...HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

12Z MODELS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS WITH QPF IN
THE NW TODAY...FEEL THINGS ARE BEING OVERDONE AND HAVE KEPT POPS
TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO PREV FCST.  UPR LOW THEN SAGS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC MOVES IN.
MODELS ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS SOUTH...BUT NOT WORTH A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED NW FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...
CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE ONTARIO AT START OF LONG TERM PD
MON MORNING WITH A RATHER SHARP RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH MID WEEK. 12Z NAM SUGGESTED A SGFNT SHRTWV IN THE NW FLOW
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS ON TUE. WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM
INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE OR NO QPF IN OUR AREA,
LEFT FCST FOR TUE DRY. SIMILAR PROBLEMS CROP UP ON WED AS GFS
SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRONGER WAA UPSTREAM OVER
THE UPR MS VALLEY AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE SE-EWD INTO OUR CWA. GFS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH ITS SOLUTION
AND SPREADING ITS QPF TOO FAR EAST INTO THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE REASONABLE IN KEEPING THIS WAA INDUCED
CONVECTION WEST OF OUR CWA ACROSS THE MID-UPR MS VALLEY WED... THUS
LEFT THIS PD DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
INDICATING A RATHER STRONG SHRTWV WILL MOVE OVER TOP OF THE PLAINS
RIDGE THU AND THROUGH THE GRTLKS FRI/SAT. WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV/CDFNT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION, SO ADDED
A CHC OF TSTMS TO FRI NGT.

AS FOR TEMPS, NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LOW TO OUR NE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS BLO NORMAL MON-TUE, WITH A SGFNT WARMING TREND WED-FRI AS UPR
RIDGE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH GRTLKS FRI/SAT WILL
DEEPEN TROF OVER ERN U.S. ONCE AGAIN WITH RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA CAUSING
TEMPS TO COOL DOWN TO AT OR BLO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOC WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI ERODING AS
THEY NEAR TERMINALS. WITH MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT LOCATED TO THE
SW AND NOT PROGGED TO MAKE MORE NW PROGRESS...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HAVE HANDLED KSBN WITH VCSH
WITH QUESTIONABLE PROGRESS AND LITTLE PRECIP FALLING UPSTREAM AT
KVPZ DESPITE ELEVATED 88D RETURNS. FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO FORCING
AT KFWA...TEMPO GROUP FOR PERIODIC LIGHT SHRA GRADUALLY WORKING IN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL REASSESS TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EVEN TO THE EAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL...AND HAVE KEPT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT E/NE
WINDS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LUD

000
FXUS63 KIWX 041954
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
354 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MISSOURI MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. BROAD AREA OF PRECIP IN ASCENT REGION NORTH OF A WEAK LLEVEL
BNDRY HAS BEEN TRACKING OUT OF ILLINOIS INTO WEST AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS FALLING FROM
ELEVATED LAYER AND FIGHTING DRIER AIR BELOW KEEPING AMOUNTS QUITE
LIGHT THUS FAR. WITH MAIN LLEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING TO OUR SE
AND FORCING FROM ASCENT WANING/FOLLOWING SAGGING BNDRY A CONTINUED
EROSION OF QPF TO THE NE IS EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...PERSISTENT
AREA OF LIGHT SHRA/DZ WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
LINGERING SCT LIGHT SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY...EXTREMELY WARM AIR ALOFT ON 00Z
SOUNDINGS...AND NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED UPSTREAM ALL DAY...HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

12Z MODELS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS WITH QPF IN
THE NW TODAY...FEEL THINGS ARE BEING OVERDONE AND HAVE KEPT POPS
TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO PREV FCST.  UPR LOW THEN SAGS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC MOVES IN.
MODELS ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS SOUTH...BUT NOT WORTH A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED NW FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS
INDICATIVE OF HIGHS NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...
CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER SE ONTARIO AT START OF LONG TERM PD
MON MORNING WITH A RATHER SHARP RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH MID WEEK. 12Z NAM SUGGESTED A SGFNT SHRTWV IN THE NW FLOW
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS ON TUE. WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM
INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LITTLE OR NO QPF IN OUR AREA,
LEFT FCST FOR TUE DRY. SIMILAR PROBLEMS CROP UP ON WED AS GFS
SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE STRONGER WAA UPSTREAM OVER
THE UPR MS VALLEY AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE SE-EWD INTO OUR CWA. GFS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH ITS SOLUTION
AND SPREADING ITS QPF TOO FAR EAST INTO THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR. GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE REASONABLE IN KEEPING THIS WAA INDUCED
CONVECTION WEST OF OUR CWA ACROSS THE MID-UPR MS VALLEY WED... THUS
LEFT THIS PD DRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
INDICATING A RATHER STRONG SHRTWV WILL MOVE OVER TOP OF THE PLAINS
RIDGE THU AND THROUGH THE GRTLKS FRI/SAT. WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV/CDFNT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION, SO ADDED
A CHC OF TSTMS TO FRI NGT.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOC WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI ERODING AS
THEY NEAR TERMINALS. WITH MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT LOCATED TO THE
SW AND NOT PROGGED TO MAKE MORE NW PROGRESS...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HAVE HANDLED KSBN WITH VCSH
WITH QUESTIONABLE PROGRESS AND LITTLE PRECIP FALLING UPSTREAM AT
KVPZ DESPITE ELEVATED 88D RETURNS. FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO FORCING
AT KFWA...TEMPO GROUP FOR PERIODIC LIGHT SHRA GRADUALLY WORKING IN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL REASSESS TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EVEN TO THE EAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL...AND HAVE KEPT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT E/NE
WINDS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LUD

000
FXUS63 KIND 041935
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z INDICATED A SURFACE LOW STILL
OVER NW MISSOURI. RADAR LOOPS SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM INDIANA WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PRECIP
WAS DIMINISHING RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PLACED AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A S/W ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUED WILL BE HOW QUICKLY RAIN WILL END TONIGHT AND
WHETHER TO MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE S/W OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS WILL HAVE TO DELAY ENDING OF SHOWERS A
BIT.  NAM INDICATES MU CAPES OF ABOUT 500 J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND WITH VERY LOW VALUES ELSEWHERE. WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE LITTLE OR NO
LIGHTNING EXPECTED TONIGHT.  BOTH NAM/GFS KEEP QUIET A BIT OF UVV
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODELS GRADUALLY DECREASE
PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS
WESTERN KENTUCKY.  WILL MENTION 20 PERCENT POPS IN OUR FAR SE SUNDAY
MORNING AS MODELS NOW SHOWING A LITTLE QPF AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDS NORTH OF THE LOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER MOST OF OUR
REGION INTO SUNDAY.  THEY MAY SCATTER OUT IN OUR NORTH BY MIDDAY AND
IN OUR SOUTH BY EVENING.

QUIET WEATHER AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.  BY MIDWEEK THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD OUR
WAY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 90S IN OUR SW BY
THURSDAY AND ALL AREAS BY FRIDAY.

THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION
EARLY SATURDAY.  WILL MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTH
LATE FRIDAY AND IN OUR SOUTH INTO SATURDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

AS FAR AS SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WILL GO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOS VALUES TONIGHT BECAUSE OF CLOUDS.  ON SUNDAY WILL GO A
LITTLE COOLER IN OUR SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THERE THE
LONGEST.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN MO/SWRN IA WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH
THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE INDICATED. MCS THAT WAS OVER MO
OVERNIGHT HAS SOMEWHAT SPLIT IN TWO WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACING
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OVER SRN IL AND OVER NERN OK.  THIS
COMPLICATES THE CURRENT FORECAST.

USING INTERPOLATION...LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IN
/JUST E OF LAF AND N OF IND/ BY 20Z.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD EFFECT
KBMG...BUT WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF IT TO BE ACROSS SWRN IN INTO SWRN
OH/N CENTRAL KY THRU 05/00Z.  WHAT THIS MEANS IS MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  LOOKS THAT THE
NAM MODEL MOVES PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS SEWD FROM THE AREA AFTER 03Z WHICH
WOULD FOLLOW CURRENT TRENDS. SUNDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...DWM
PUBLIC...JH

000
FXUS63 KIWX 041743
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
143 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOC WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI ERODING AS
THEY NEAR TERMINALS. WITH MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT LOCATED TO THE
SW AND NOT PROGGED TO MAKE MORE NW PROGRESS...EXPECT THIS GENERAL
TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HAVE HANDLED KSBN WITH VCSH
WITH QUESTIONABLE PROGRESS AND LITTLE PRECIP FALLING UPSTREAM AT
KVPZ DESPITE ELEVATED 88D RETURNS. FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO FORCING
AT KFWA...TEMPO GROUP FOR PERIODIC LIGHT SHRA GRADUALLY WORKING IN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL REASSESS TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE GENERALLY VFR EVEN TO THE EAST UNDER MORE
PERSISTENT RAINFALL...AND HAVE KEPT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHT E/NE
WINDS.

&&

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

OBVIOUS FORECAST CHALLENGE IS NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS REMNANT MCS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TODAY AND INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND THETA E ADVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI IS HELPING TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. THIS
COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST THEN BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
AS IT WEAKENS. BULK OF THIS PCPN WILL MISS MOST OF FORECAST AREA BUT
COULD STILL SWIPE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONCERN FOR SOUTHWEST HALF OF
FORECAST AREA REALLY LIES WITH LIGHTER PCPN SHIELD CURRENTLY SEEN ON
RADAR MOSAIC FROM IA INTO SOUTHERN MN. THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TODAY BUT OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING THIS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND INDICATE A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL TRY TO HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL PROVIDE A
DRYING EASTERLY FLOW TO HELP COMBAT APPROACHING RAIN SHIELD. NOT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING POPS COMPLETELY FROM NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
AREAS TODAY BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE DOUBT MUCH IF ANY PCPN
WILL BE ABLE TO MOISTEN LOWER LEVELS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE THERE. PREVIOUS EVENING SHIFT CUT POPS ALL AREAS BY A
CATEGORY FOR TODAY AND THIS IS CONCERNING IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WHERE JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MEASURABLE PCPN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
HONOR THIS MOVE AND KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA RATHER THAN YOYO
THE FORECAST BACK TO CATEGORICAL AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. STILL
WILL HAVE LIKELY WORDING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.

AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO KENTUCKY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN SATURATED UNTIL
AT LEAST LATE EVENING IN THE NORTH AND MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH SO PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS BACK TO
NORTHEAST AREAS BUT NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PCPN. WARMEST TEMPS ACTUALLY IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LESS DENSE CLOUD
COVER AND COOLEST TEMPS SOUTHWEST WHERE PCPN HAS BEST CHANCE OF
OCCURRING. TEMPS SHOULD BE A SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
MORE SUN AND WARMING H850 TEMPS. HOWEVER...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND HANG AROUND FOR A DAY OR SO AWAITING ONE FINAL KICKER OF
ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE AWAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL WAVE IN
THE MON NGT TO EARLY TUES TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ON
ANYTHING DEVELOPING OUT OF IT SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPS ON TAP FOR THE AREA. COOL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH READINGS
FINALLY HEADING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR WEDS. AFTER THIS...MODELS
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT MASSIVELY...ON CHANGE BACK TO THE HAZY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE SEEN LAST WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK
TO AT OR ABOVE 20 C...GIVING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...IF NOT SOME
90S ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FRIDAY. DEWPTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AT
FIRST...BUT NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVERTISED TO APPROACH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MSTR TO BE DRAWN IN WITH
DEWPTS BACK WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME HINTS OF LOWER 70S. HAVE
REMAINED CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED LAST
WEEK...SEE NO REASON THIS IS NOT ATTAINABLE ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE FRONT AS MAIN TIMING AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE
JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LUD

000
FXUS63 KIND 041613
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1212 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN MO/SWRN IA WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH
THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE INDICATED. MCS THAT WAS OVER MO
OVERNIGHT HAS SOMEWHAT SPLIT IN TWO WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACING
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OVER SRN IL AND OVER NERN OK.  THIS
COMPLICATES THE CURRENT FORECAST.

USING INTERPOLATION...LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IN
/JUST E OF LAF AND N OF IND/ BY 20Z.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD EFFECT
KBMG...BUT WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF IT TO BE ACROSS SWRN IN INTO SWRN
OH/N CENTRAL KY THRU 05/00Z.  WHAT THIS MEANS IS MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  LOOKS THAT THE
NAM MODEL MOVES PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS SEWD FROM THE AREA AFTER 03Z WHICH
WOULD FOLLOW CURRENT TRENDS. SUNDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...DISORGANIZED HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE GRT LKS
STRETCHING SOUTH TO KY AND TN EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRES WAS
FOUND ACRS CENTRAL KS. CI AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS SPILLING INTO IL AND
INDIANA. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWS PCPN ACRS IL AND EASTERN MO SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST. SFC DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE POPS.

WL USE A BLEND AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY...TRACKING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACRS MO TO SRN IL AND TO THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...MANY FACTORS ARE POINTING TO RAIN
FOR TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS TIME SECTIONS SHOW VERY STRONG VV ACRS THE AREA AFT 18Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z-05Z. 305K GFS ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS NEARLY 50
KNTS OF UPGLIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOS
AS MIXING RATIOS ARE NEAR 10 G/KG. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT REALLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT...SOME ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONGOING WORDING
HANDLES THIS WELL. LOWER LVL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE APPEARS QUITE
STRONG ALSO AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACRS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD AND EXPECTED PCPN WL LEAN TO THE COOLER SIDE OF MAVMOS HIGHS
TDY. WL ALSO RAISE POPS TO NEAR 100...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SW.

WL BE UNABLE TO REMOVE PCPN ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN COMPLETELY SATURATED 00Z AND SLOWLY BEGIN
TO DRY OUT AFT 06Z SUN. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO GENERATE A STRONG
AREA OF VV ACRS THE SRN PARTS OF THE FA. WL RAISE POPS MAINLY ACRS
THE SE...BUT WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ELSEWHERE AS THE HIGH LIKELYS
SHUD WORK WELL. GIVE THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN AND LACK OF CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MAVMOS
FOR LOWS.

SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACRS INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRES OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACRS OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED H8 TEMPS OF 12-13C...WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER
ON HIGHS UNDER PTCLDY SKIES. CU RULE SUGGESTS PTCLDY SKIES. WL STICK
CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY/S NIGHT LOWS. ANOTHER PLEASANT AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY APPEARS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH RETAINS
CONTROL. AS H8 TEMPS HAVE RISEN A FEW DEGREES...EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS...BUT MAVMOS STILL APPEARS A BIT TOO WARM.
WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER.

DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS FARTHER IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER THAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOTTER EACH DAY AND WITH 90S OVER OUR WEST
AND SOUTH BY DAY 7.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...DWM
PUBLIC...PUMA

000
FXUS63 KIND 041612
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN MO/SWRN IA WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH
THAN WHAT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE INDICATED. MCS THAT WAS OVER MO
OVERNIGHT HAS SOMEWHAT SPLIT IN TWO WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACING
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OVER SRN IL AND OVER NERN OK.  THIS
COMPLICATES THE CURRENT FORECAST.

USING INTERPOLATION...LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IN
/JUST E OF LAF AND N OF IND/ BY 20Z.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD EFFECT
KBMG...BUT WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF IT TO BE ACROSS SWRN IN INTO SWRN
OH/N CENTRAL KY THRU 05/00Z.  WHAT THIS MEANS IS MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF IFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  LOOKS THAT THE
NAM MODEL MOVES PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS SEWD FROM THE AREA AFTER 03Z WHICH
WOULD FOLLOW CURRENT TRENDS. SUNDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES IN THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...DISORGANIZED HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE GRT LKS
STRETCHING SOUTH TO KY AND TN EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRES WAS
FOUND ACRS CENTRAL KS. CI AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS SPILLING INTO IL AND
INDIANA. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWS PCPN ACRS IL AND EASTERN MO SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST. SFC DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE POPS.

WL USE A BLEND AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY...TRACKING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACRS MO TO SRN IL AND TO THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...MANY FACTORS ARE POINTING TO RAIN
FOR TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS TIME SECTIONS SHOW VERY STRONG VV ACRS THE AREA AFT 18Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z-05Z. 305K GFS ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS NEARLY 50
KNTS OF UPGLIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOS
AS MIXING RATIOS ARE NEAR 10 G/KG. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT REALLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT...SOME ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONGOING WORDING
HANDLES THIS WELL. LOWER LVL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE APPEARS QUITE
STRONG ALSO AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACRS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD AND EXPECTED PCPN WL LEAN TO THE COOLER SIDE OF MAVMOS HIGHS
TDY. WL ALSO RAISE POPS TO NEAR 100...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SW.

WL BE UNABLE TO REMOVE PCPN ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN COMPLETELY SATURATED 00Z AND SLOWLY BEGIN
TO DRY OUT AFT 06Z SUN. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO GENERATE A STRONG
AREA OF VV ACRS THE SRN PARTS OF THE FA. WL RAISE POPS MAINLY ACRS
THE SE...BUT WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ELSEWHERE AS THE HIGH LIKELYS
SHUD WORK WELL. GIVE THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN AND LACK OF CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MAVMOS
FOR LOWS.

SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACRS INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRES OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACRS OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED H8 TEMPS OF 12-13C...WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER
ON HIGHS UNDER PTCLDY SKIES. CU RULE SUGGESTS PTCLDY SKIES. WL STICK
CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY/S NIGHT LOWS. ANOTHER PLEASANT AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY APPEARS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH RETAINS
CONTROL. AS H8 TEMPS HAVE RISEN A FEW DEGREES...EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS...BUT MAVMOS STILL APPEARS A BIT TOO WARM.
WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER.

DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS FARTHER IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER THAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOTTER EACH DAY AND WITH 90S OVER OUR WEST
AND SOUTH BY DAY 7.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...DWM
PUBLIC...PUMA

000
FXUS63 KIND 041057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN KANSAS WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO INDIANA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FIRST CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER DURING THE 14-16Z TIME
FRAME. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE JUST MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IN
THE RAIN AND SO WILL CARRY THIS IN THE FORECAST. AS THE LOW PULLS
EAST AND CLOSE TO THE AREA TONIGHT...MORE VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL GO WITH AN MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN ALL SITES SHOULD FALL TO AT
LEAST IFR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. INDICATIONS ARE
FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS UNDER 500 FEET AT HUF AND BMG LATE
TONIGHT. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST IN THE IFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...DISORGANIZED HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE GRT LKS
STRETCHING SOUTH TO KY AND TN EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRES WAS
FOUND ACRS CENTRAL KS. CI AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS SPILLING INTO IL AND
INDIANA. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWS PCPN ACRS IL AND EASTERN MO SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST. SFC DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE POPS.

WL USE A BLEND AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY...TRACKING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACRS MO TO SRN IL AND TO THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...MANY FACTORS ARE POINTING TO RAIN
FOR TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS TIME SECTIONS SHOW VERY STRONG VV ACRS THE AREA AFT 18Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z-05Z. 305K GFS ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS NEARLY 50
KNTS OF UPGLIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOS
AS MIXING RATIOS ARE NEAR 10 G/KG. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT REALLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT...SOME ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONGOING WORDING
HANDLES THIS WELL. LOWER LVL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE APPEARS QUITE
STRONG ALSO AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACRS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD AND EXPECTED PCPN WL LEAN TO THE COOLER SIDE OF MAVMOS HIGHS
TDY. WL ALSO RAISE POPS TO NEAR 100...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SW.

WL BE UNABLE TO REMOVE PCPN ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN COMPLETELY SATURATED 00Z AND SLOWLY BEGIN
TO DRY OUT AFT 06Z SUN. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO GENERATE A STRONG
AREA OF VV ACRS THE SRN PARTS OF THE FA. WL RAISE POPS MAINLY ACRS
THE SE...BUT WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ELSEWHERE AS THE HIGH LIKELYS
SHUD WORK WELL. GIVE THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN AND LACK OF CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MAVMOS
FOR LOWS.

SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACRS INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRES OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACRS OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED H8 TEMPS OF 12-13C...WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER
ON HIGHS UNDER PTCLDY SKIES. CU RULE SUGGESTS PTCLDY SKIES. WL STICK
CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY/S NIGHT LOWS. ANOTHER PLEASANT AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY APPEARS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH RETAINS
CONTROL. AS H8 TEMPS HAVE RISEN A FEW DEGREES...EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS...BUT MAVMOS STILL APPEARS A BIT TOO WARM.
WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER.

DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS FARTHER IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER THAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOTTER EACH DAY AND WITH 90S OVER OUR WEST
AND SOUTH BY DAY 7.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KIWX 041029
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AREA OF RAIN TO OUR WEST IN IL MOVING
EAST SOUTHEAST. TAF SITES STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL HELP ERODE NORTHERN
EDGE AND SHUNT HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH AT TAF
SITES AND MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. MVFR CIGS STILL
EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

OBVIOUS FORECAST CHALLENGE IS NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS REMNANT MCS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TODAY AND INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND THETA E ADVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI IS HELPING TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. THIS
COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST THEN BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
AS IT WEAKENS. BULK OF THIS PCPN WILL MISS MOST OF FORECAST AREA BUT
COULD STILL SWIPE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONCERN FOR SOUTHWEST HALF OF
FORECAST AREA REALLY LIES WITH LIGHTER PCPN SHIELD CURRENTLY SEEN ON
RADAR MOSAIC FROM IA INTO SOUTHERN MN. THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TODAY BUT OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING THIS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND INDICATE A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL TRY TO HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL PROVIDE A
DRYING EASTERLY FLOW TO HELP COMBAT APPROACHING RAIN SHIELD. NOT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING POPS COMPLETELY FROM NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
AREAS TODAY BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE DOUBT MUCH IF ANY PCPN
WILL BE ABLE TO MOISTEN LOWER LEVELS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE THERE. PREVIOUS EVENING SHIFT CUT POPS ALL AREAS BY A
CATEGORY FOR TODAY AND THIS IS CONCERNING IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WHERE JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MEASURABLE PCPN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
HONOR THIS MOVE AND KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA RATHER THAN YOYO
THE FORECAST BACK TO CATEGORICAL AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. STILL
WILL HAVE LIKELY WORDING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.

AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO KENTUCKY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN SATURATED UNTIL
AT LEAST LATE EVENING IN THE NORTH AND MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH SO PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS BACK TO
NORTHEAST AREAS BUT NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PCPN. WARMEST TEMPS ACTUALLY IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LESS DENSE CLOUD
COVER AND COOLEST TEMPS SOUTHWEST WHERE PCPN HAS BEST CHANCE OF
OCCURRING. TEMPS SHOULD BE A SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
MORE SUN AND WARMING H850 TEMPS. HOWEVER...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND HANG AROUND FOR A DAY OR SO AWAITING ONE FINAL KICKER OF
ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE AWAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL WAVE IN
THE MON NGT TO EARLY TUES TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ON
ANYTHING DEVELOPING OUT OF IT SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPS ON TAP FOR THE AREA. COOL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH READINGS
FINALLY HEADING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR WEDS. AFTER THIS...MODELS
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT MASSIVELY...ON CHANGE BACK TO THE HAZY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE SEEN LAST WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK
TO AT OR ABOVE 20 C...GIVING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...IF NOT SOME
90S ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FRIDAY. DEWPTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AT
FIRST...BUT NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVERTISED TO APPROACH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MSTR TO BE DRAWN IN WITH
DEWPTS BACK WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME HINTS OF LOWER 70S. HAVE
REMAINED CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED LAST
WEEK...SEE NO REASON THIS IS NOT ATTAINABLE ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE FRONT AS MAIN TIMING AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE
JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

000
FXUS63 KIWX 040737
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
337 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

OBVIOUS FORECAST CHALLENGE IS NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS REMNANT MCS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS TODAY AND INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND THETA E ADVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI IS HELPING TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. THIS
COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST THEN BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
AS IT WEAKENS. BULK OF THIS PCPN WILL MISS MOST OF FORECAST AREA BUT
COULD STILL SWIPE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONCERN FOR SOUTHWEST HALF OF
FORECAST AREA REALLY LIES WITH LIGHTER PCPN SHIELD CURRENTLY SEEN ON
RADAR MOSAIC FROM IA INTO SOUTHERN MN. THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TODAY BUT OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING THIS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AND INDICATE A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF QPF POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL TRY TO HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL PROVIDE A
DRYING EASTERLY FLOW TO HELP COMBAT APPROACHING RAIN SHIELD. NOT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING POPS COMPLETELY FROM NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
AREAS TODAY BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE DOUBT MUCH IF ANY PCPN
WILL BE ABLE TO MOISTEN LOWER LEVELS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE THERE. PREVIOUS EVENING SHIFT CUT POPS ALL AREAS BY A
CATEGORY FOR TODAY AND THIS IS CONCERNING IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WHERE JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MEASURABLE PCPN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
HONOR THIS MOVE AND KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA RATHER THAN YOYO
THE FORECAST BACK TO CATEGORICAL AS WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. STILL
WILL HAVE LIKELY WORDING WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.

AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO KENTUCKY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN SATURATED UNTIL
AT LEAST LATE EVENING IN THE NORTH AND MOST OF THE NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH SO PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS BACK TO
NORTHEAST AREAS BUT NO PCPN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE WITH COOLER TEMPS TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
PCPN. WARMEST TEMPS ACTUALLY IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LESS DENSE CLOUD
COVER AND COOLEST TEMPS SOUTHWEST WHERE PCPN HAS BEST CHANCE OF
OCCURRING. TEMPS SHOULD BE A SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
MORE SUN AND WARMING H850 TEMPS. HOWEVER...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND HANG AROUND FOR A DAY OR SO AWAITING ONE FINAL KICKER OF
ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE AWAY. MODELS SHOW SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL WAVE IN
THE MON NGT TO EARLY TUES TIME FRAME...BUT CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ON
ANYTHING DEVELOPING OUT OF IT SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPS ON TAP FOR THE AREA. COOL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH READINGS
FINALLY HEADING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR WEDS. AFTER THIS...MODELS
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT MASSIVELY...ON CHANGE BACK TO THE HAZY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE SEEN LAST WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK
TO AT OR ABOVE 20 C...GIVING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...IF NOT SOME
90S ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FRIDAY. DEWPTS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AT
FIRST...BUT NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVERTISED TO APPROACH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MSTR TO BE DRAWN IN WITH
DEWPTS BACK WELL INTO THE 60S AND EVEN SOME HINTS OF LOWER 70S. HAVE
REMAINED CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED LAST
WEEK...SEE NO REASON THIS IS NOT ATTAINABLE ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY WITH THE FRONT AS MAIN TIMING AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE
JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND IN LATER
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. MOISTURE NORTH OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF TERMINAL SITES.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KSBN AND KFWA. BOTH SITES REMAIN ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF
SYSTEM AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY FOR RESTRICTIONS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME WITH BEST FORCING REMAINING SOUTH. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AFTER 00Z AS SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AND DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM NORTH.



&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY

000
FXUS63 KIND 040626
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
225 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...DISORGANIZED HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE GRT LKS
STRETCHING SOUTH TO KY AND TN EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRES WAS
FOUND ACRS CENTRAL KS. CI AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS SPILLING INTO IL AND
INDIANA. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWS PCPN ACRS IL AND EASTERN MO SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST. SFC DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE POPS.

WL USE A BLEND AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY...TRACKING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM ACRS MO TO SRN IL AND TO THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...MANY FACTORS ARE POINTING TO RAIN
FOR TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME SATURATED DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS TIME SECTIONS SHOW VERY STRONG VV ACRS THE AREA AFT 18Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z-05Z. 305K GFS ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS NEARLY 50
KNTS OF UPGLIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOS
AS MIXING RATIOS ARE NEAR 10 G/KG. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT REALLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT...SOME ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONGOING WORDING
HANDLES THIS WELL. LOWER LVL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE APPEARS QUITE
STRONG ALSO AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACRS THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD AND EXPECTED PCPN WL LEAN TO THE COOLER SIDE OF MAVMOS HIGHS
TDY. WL ALSO RAISE POPS TO NEAR 100...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SW.

WL BE UNABLE TO REMOVE PCPN ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN COMPLETELY SATURATED 00Z AND SLOWLY BEGIN
TO DRY OUT AFT 06Z SUN. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO GENERATE A STRONG
AREA OF VV ACRS THE SRN PARTS OF THE FA. WL RAISE POPS MAINLY ACRS
THE SE...BUT WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS ELSEWHERE AS THE HIGH LIKELYS
SHUD WORK WELL. GIVE THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN AND LACK OF CAA IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MAVMOS
FOR LOWS.

SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACRS INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM AS HIGH PRES OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACRS OUR AREA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED H8 TEMPS OF 12-13C...WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER
ON HIGHS UNDER PTCLDY SKIES. CU RULE SUGGESTS PTCLDY SKIES. WL STICK
CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR SUNDAY/S NIGHT LOWS. ANOTHER PLEASANT AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY APPEARS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH RETAINS
CONTROL. AS H8 TEMPS HAVE RISEN A FEW DEGREES...EXPECT A SLOW
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS...BUT MAVMOS STILL APPEARS A BIT TOO WARM.
WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES COOLER.

DRY WX IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS FARTHER IN
THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AFTER THAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOTTER EACH DAY AND WITH 90S OVER OUR WEST
AND SOUTH BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 6Z TAFS.
CONDITIONS WILL START OUT VFR AT THE SITES TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD SRN INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK
AND BRING RAIN TO ALL THE SITES AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
TO THE SITES. THUNDER TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. AFTER THAT /AROUND 16Z/ WL INCLUDE RAIN WITH MVFR VSBYS AND
THEN MVFR CIGS AS WELL. CIGS SHUD DROP TO IFR AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE OH RVR...SOMEWHERE AROUND 0Z. LOW CIGS MAY NOT GET AS
FAR N AS KLAF SO WL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PUMA
EXTENDED...JH
AVIATION...CP

000
FXUS63 KIWX 040537
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
135 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND IN LATER
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. MOISTURE NORTH OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF TERMINAL SITES.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KSBN AND KFWA. BOTH SITES REMAIN ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF
SYSTEM AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY FOR RESTRICTIONS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME WITH BEST FORCING REMAINING SOUTH. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AFTER 00Z AS SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY AND DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS WAVE APPROACHING FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES. THIS AFTERNOONS CLOUD DECK
SHOULD THIN LATE ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING INTO TONIGHT AS
RIDGING BRIEFLY EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE REGION. ALL EYES ARE
THEN ON LOW PRESSURE EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MOVING SW OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MORE NORTHERLY RUN-TO-RUN TREND HAS CEASED
WITH THE 12Z MODELS /THOUGH THE NAM IS STILL NORTH OF THE GFS WRT
SFC/H85 LOW TRACK/ AND GUIDANCE OVERALL HAS TIGHTENED ITS FOCUS VS
YESTERDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...INCREASING LLEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT/THETA-E BNDRY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF INDIANA. PER 300K/305K SURFACES...BEST ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE BNDRY EXTENDS INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ALONG SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. WITH GUIDANCE IN INCREASING
AGREEMENT...HAVE UNFORTUNATELY RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THIS
REGION WHERE A SOGGY DAY APPEARS TO BE IN STORE. POPS TAPER QUICKLY
TO LIKELY AWAY FROM THE BORDER COUNTIES. NORTHERN EXTENT OF
ORGANIZED PRECIP IS SOMEWHAT FUZZIER...AND HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO
SPREAD LIKELY POPS INTO THE NE HALF AS MODEL DEPICTION OF EXTENT OF
PRECIP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT MAY BE OVERDONE. FORCING BEGINS TO
EXIT QUICKLY BEYOND 00Z AS SFC LOW DROPS SE INTO KY WITH CLEARING
PROGGED A BIT QUICKER THAN PREV CYCLES...AND HAVE ENDED CHC POPS IN
THE SE BY 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPR AIR EXPECTED TO FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER ERN N.A. WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER SE CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S./CANADA AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PD SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SE CANADA LOW MOVES SLOWLY ESE ACROSS THE NERN
U.S. AND BUILDING RIDGE MOVES EWD TO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY WED. CONTD
TO FAVOR FARTHER WEST CUTOFF SOLUTION AND SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT OF
CANADIAN LOW DEPICTED BY ECMWF WHICH SEEMS MORE IN KEEPING WITH
RECENT UPR AIR PATTERN IN THIS REGION. 12Z NAM ALSO ADDS SOME
CREDENCE TO IDEA OF UPR LOW FORMING FARTHER WEST THAN GFS/GEM/UKMET,
THOUGH THE NAM`S POSITION EVEN WEST OF THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER.
AS LOW MOVES ESE ACROSS SERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHRTWV
ROTATING AROUND IT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A CDFNT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON MON. NAM WHICH IS FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPR LOW DVLPS
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS CDFNT ACROSS MI MOVG SE INTO OUR CWA.
LEANING TOWARD WEAKER SHRTWV FCST BY 00Z ECMWF... STAYED WITH DRY
FCST FOR MONDAY.  FROPA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE
WITH A WARMING TREND MID-LATE WEEK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS UPR
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF CDFNT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVG OVER TOP OF RIDGE ACROSS CANADA LATE IN
THE WEEK APPROACHES OUR AREA. THIS CDFNT OFFERS A CHC OF TSTMS AS
GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY THAT TIME, HWVR,
APPEARS THAT THIS CHC WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THIS FCST PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY

000
FXUS63 KIND 040510
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
100 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 6Z TAFS.
CONDITIONS WILL START OUT VFR AT THE SITES TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD SRN INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK
AND BRING RAIN TO ALL THE SITES AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
TO THE SITES. THUNDER TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. AFTER THAT /AROUND 16Z/ WL INCLUDE RAIN WITH MVFR VSBYS AND
THEN MVFR CIGS AS WELL. CIGS SHUD DROP TO IFR AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE OH RVR...SOMEWHERE AROUND 0Z. LOW CIGS MAY NOT GET AS
FAR N AS KLAF SO WL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM WISCONSIN TO WESTERN KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU ACROSS OUR
AREA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A S/W WAS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE.

MODELS STILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY.  MODELS MOVE A SURFACE FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY TO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPTABLE WATER IS JUST OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH TOMORROW
AND MODELS INDICATE A 50 KNOT 850 MB JET POINTED TOWARDS OUR REGION
ON SATURDAY.  AS A RESULT SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WET AND RAIN AMOUNTS
IN OUR SOUTH SHOULD AVERAGE WELL OVER AN INCH ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE OUT SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS END FROM
THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT.

SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TERRE
HAUTE TO SEYMOUR LINE SATURDAY.  THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR NORTH AS
NAM/GFS SHOW MU CAPES RANGING FROM 200 J/KG OVER MOST OF OUR AREA TO
PERHAPS A 1000 J/KG IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST TO 3000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
OUR AREA AND WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST
WHERE IT IS MORE UNSTABLE.

MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT WILL WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.

FARTHER IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER THAT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOTTER EACH DAY AND
WITH 90S OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTH BY DAY 7.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...CP

000
FXUS63 KIND 032301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 0Z TAFS.
CONDITIONS WILL START OUT VFR AT THE SITES TONIGHT. TOMORROW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD SRN INDIANA AND
BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER TO THE SITES. TOO FAR OUT IN
TIME FOR THE ADDITION OF THUNDER...BUT IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT THE
SOUTHERN SITES /KHUF AND KBMG/ THAN THE NORTHERN SITES /KIND AND
KLAF/. GFS AND NAM HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING ON THE BEGINNING OF THE
RAIN SO WL START OUT WITH A TEMPO FROM THE START OF THE RAIN IN ONE
MODEL TO THE START OF THE RAIN IN THE OTHER. AFTER THAT /AROUND 16Z/
WL INCLUDE RAIN WITH MVFR VSBYS AND THEN MVFR CIGS AS WELL. IT IS
POSSIBLE THESE COULD DROP TO IFR OR LOWER AS WELL BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE FNT AND THE LOW SO WL NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING LOWER AT THIS ISSUANCE BUT WL MONITOR 0Z RUN GUIDANCE FOR
INCLUSION AT NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM WISCONSIN TO WESTERN KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU ACROSS OUR
AREA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A S/W WAS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE.

MODELS STILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY.  MODELS MOVE A SURFACE FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY TO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPTABLE WATER IS JUST OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH TOMORROW
AND MODELS INDICATE A 50 KNOT 850 MB JET POINTED TOWARDS OUR REGION
ON SATURDAY.  AS A RESULT SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WET AND RAIN AMOUNTS
IN OUR SOUTH SHOULD AVERAGE WELL OVER AN INCH ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE OUT SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS END FROM
THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT.

SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TERRE
HAUTE TO SEYMOUR LINE SATURDAY.  THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR NORTH AS
NAM/GFS SHOW MU CAPES RANGING FROM 200 J/KG OVER MOST OF OUR AREA TO
PERHAPS A 1000 J/KG IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST TO 3000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
OUR AREA AND WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST
WHERE IT IS MORE UNSTABLE.

MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT WILL WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.

FARTHER IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER THAT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOTTER EACH DAY AND
WITH 90S OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTH BY DAY 7.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...CP

000
FXUS63 KIWX 032000
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS WAVE APPROACHING FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES. THIS AFTERNOONS CLOUD DECK
SHOULD THIN LATE ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING INTO TONIGHT AS
RIDGING BRIEFLY EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE REGION. ALL EYES ARE
THEN ON LOW PRESSURE EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MOVING SW OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MORE NORTHERLY RUN-TO-RUN TREND HAS CEASED
WITH THE 12Z MODELS /THOUGH THE NAM IS STILL NORTH OF THE GFS WRT
SFC/H85 LOW TRACK/ AND GUIDANCE OVERALL HAS TIGHTENED ITS FOCUS VS
YESTERDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...INCREASING LLEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT/THETA-E BNDRY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF INDIANA. PER 300K/305K SURFACES...BEST ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BNDRY EXTENDS INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ALONG SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. WITH GUIDANCE IN
INCREASING AGREEMENT...HAVE UNFORTUNATELY RAISED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL IN THIS REGION WHERE A SOGGY DAY APPEARS TO BE IN
STORE. POPS TAPER QUICKLY TO LIKELY AWAY FROM THE BORDER COUNTIES.
NORTHERN EXTENT OF ORGANIZED PRECIP IS SOMEWHAT FUZZIER...AND HAVE
BEEN RELUCTANT TO SPREAD LIKELY POPS INTO THE NE HALF AS MODEL
DEPICTION OF EXTENT OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT MAY BE
OVERDONE. FORCING BEGINS TO EXIT QUICKLY BEYOND 00Z AS SFC LOW
DROPS SE INTO KY WITH CLEARING PROGGED A BIT QUICKER THAN PREV
CYCLES...AND HAVE ENDED CHC POPS IN THE SE BY 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPR AIR EXPECTED TO FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER ERN N.A. WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER SE CANADA AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S./CANADA AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PD SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SE CANADA LOW MOVES SLOWLY ESE ACROSS THE NERN
U.S. AND BUILDING RIDGE MOVES EWD TO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY WED. CONTD
TO FAVOR FARTHER WEST CUTOFF SOLUTION AND SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT OF
CANADIAN LOW DEPICTED BY ECMWF WHICH SEEMS MORE IN KEEPING WITH
RECENT UPR AIR PATTERN IN THIS REGION. 12Z NAM ALSO ADDS SOME
CREDENCE TO IDEA OF UPR LOW FORMING FARTHER WEST THAN GFS/GEM/UKMET,
THOUGH THE NAM`S POSITION EVEN WEST OF THE 00Z ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER.
AS LOW MOVES ESE ACROSS SERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHRTWV
ROTATING AROUND IT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A CDFNT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON MON. NAM WHICH IS FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPR LOW DVLPS
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THIS CDFNT ACROSS MI MOVG SE INTO OUR CWA.
LEANING TOWARD WEAKER SHRTWV FCST BY 00Z ECMWF... STAYED WITH DRY
FCST FOR MONDAY.  FROPA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BLO NORMAL THROUGH TUE
WITH A WARMING TREND MID-LATE WEEK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS UPR
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF CDFNT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVG OVER TOP OF RIDGE ACROSS CANADA LATE IN
THE WEEK APPROACHES OUR AREA. THIS CDFNT OFFERS A CHC OF TSTMS AS
GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT BY THAT TIME, HWVR,
APPEARS THAT THIS CHC WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THIS FCST PD.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN VFR CU DECK TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE AFT WITH LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. INCREASING CLOUDS BY
MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SOME DOUBT AS
TO POTENTIAL IMPACT AT KFWA/KSBN WITHIN TAF PD AS MAIN FOCUS
REMAINS JUST TO THE SW...AND HAVE ELECTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH
BEYOND 12Z WEST/14Z EAST AS A FIRST INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE INCOMING
WEATHER AND ALLOW MORE DETAIL TO BE INTRODUCED WITH FOLLOWUP
PACKAGES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LUD

000
FXUS63 KIND 031930
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
325 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM WISCONSIN TO WESTERN KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CU ACROSS OUR AREA.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A S/W WAS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE.

MODELS STILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY.  MODELS MOVE A SURFACE FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY TO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY SATURDAY EVENING.
PRECIPTABLE WATER IS JUST OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTH TOMORROW
AND MODELS INDICATE A 50 KNOT 850 MB JET POINTED TOWARDS OUR REGION
ON SATURDAY.  AS A RESULT SATURDAY WILL BE VERY WET AND RAIN AMOUNTS
IN OUR SOUTH SHOULD AVERAGE WELL OVER AN INCH ON SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE OUT SATURDAY EVENING AND SHOWERS END FROM
THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT.

SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TERRE
HAUTE TO SEYMOUR LINE SATURDAY.  THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR NORTH AS
NAM/GFS SHOW MU CAPES RANGING FROM 200 J/KG OVER MOST OF OUR AREA TO
PERHAPS A 1000 J/KG IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST TO 3000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.  WILL MENTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
OUR AREA AND WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST
WHERE IT IS MORE UNSTABLE.

MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IT WILL WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.

FARTHER IN THE EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION AFTER THAT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME HOTTER EACH DAY AND
WITH 90S OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTH BY DAY 7.

&&



.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE. AREAS OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CIGS 040-050 XPCTD TO SCATTER OUT BY ARND 032200Z AS HEATING
DIMINISHES COUPLED WITH LRG SCALE SINKING MOTIONS UNDER APPROACHING
SFC RDG.

OTRW...JUST SOME LYRD CLDS ABV 050 XPCTD THRU 040600Z...ALONG WITH
UNRESTRICTED VSBYS/SFC WNDS BLW 15 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...JS

000
FXUS63 KIWX 031737 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...
BKN VFR CU DECK TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE AFT WITH LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. INCREASING CLOUDS BY
MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SOME DOUBT AS
TO POTENTIAL IMPACT AT KFWA/KSBN WITHIN TAF PD AS MAIN FOCUS
REMAINS JUST TO THE SW...AND HAVE ELECTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH
BEYOND 12Z WEST/14Z EAST AS A FIRST INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE INCOMING
WEATHER AND ALLOW MORE DETAIL TO BE INTRODUCED WITH FOLLOWUP
PACKAGES.

&&

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN CHANCES ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW TREND
NORTHWARD WITH POTENTIAL MCS REMNANTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ON
SATURDAY. SEVERAL SREF AND MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW BRING A
DECAYING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS ON
SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL
HINTING AT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
KEEPING A DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL
GFS...NAM...ECMWF AND REGIONAL GEM ALL BRING MEASURABLE PCPN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH DECENT LIFT AND THETA E ADVECTION NORTH OF
WARM FRONT AND MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN WERE NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
TOUGH TO IGNORE THESE INCREASING TRENDS SO HAVE JUMPED ON THE WAGON
AND INCREASED POPS ALL AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTH
CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHANCE POPS REMAINDER OF AREA FOR NOW
BUT ADDITIONAL TRENDS MAY DICTATE INCREASING POPS FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL PCPN REACHING WESTERN AREAS
BEFORE 12Z SO HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP WESTERN HALF AROUND
DAYBREAK...WHICH TECHNICALLY FALLS IN OUR TONIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND WILL HELP SAG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP IN FORECAST SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING PCPN.

AS FOR TODAY...SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING RESIDUAL STRATO CU
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA IN CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF EASTERN LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN DURING THE DAY AND HELP BREAK UP THESE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. CU RULE INDICATES SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SO GENERALLY TRENDED FROM MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MOST SUNSHINE POTENTIAL IN THE WEST.
WITH THESE CLOUDS AND RECENT MOS TRENDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON LOW SIDE
OF GUIDANCE IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

FEW CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST WITH START OF THE PERIOD FEATURING
DEPARTING MCS DISCUSSED IN SHORT TERM PORTION ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH BULK OF ANY PRECIP LIKELY EXITING BY THIS
POINT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT. WITH THE DEPARTING
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN MOST SPOTS EXCEPT LAKE SHORE AREAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

FROM SUN NGT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR THE AREA.
BY NO MEANS IS A REPEAT OF THIS LAST UPPER LOW IN STORE WITH THIS
SETUP MUCH FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO MOVE NORTH
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT WITH MAIN EFFECT BEING A
RETURN TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS OR EVEN ABOVE 20 C. THIS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
HIGHS BY THURS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LUD

000
FXUS63 KIWX 031736
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...
BKN VFR CU DECK TO PERSIST UNTIL LATE AFT WITH LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. INCREASING CLOUDS BY
MORNING AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. SOME DOUBT AS
TO POTENTIAL IMPACT AT KFWA/KSBN WITHIN TAF PD AS MAIN FOCUS
REMAINS JUST TO THE SW...AND HAVE ELECTED TO INTRODUCE VCSH
BEYOND 12Z WEST/14Z EAST AS A FIRST INDICATOR OF POSSIBLE INCOMING
WEATHER AND ALLOW MORE DETAIL TO BE INTRODUCED WITH FOLLOWUP
PACKAGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

AVIATION...

VFR CLOUD DECK STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH
THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN.
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON TAF SITES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SAT
NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE RAIN CHANCES ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW TREND
NORTHWARD WITH POTENTIAL MCS REMNANTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ON
SATURDAY. SEVERAL SREF AND MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW BRING A
DECAYING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS ON
SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL
HINTING AT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
KEEPING A DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL
GFS...NAM...ECMWF AND REGIONAL GEM ALL BRING MEASURABLE PCPN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WITH DECENT LIFT AND THETA E ADVECTION NORTH OF
WARM FRONT AND MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE. 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN WERE NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
TOUGH TO IGNORE THESE INCREASING TRENDS SO HAVE JUMPED ON THE WAGON
AND INCREASED POPS ALL AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTH
CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHANCE POPS REMAINDER OF AREA FOR NOW
BUT ADDITIONAL TRENDS MAY DICTATE INCREASING POPS FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL PCPN REACHING WESTERN AREAS
BEFORE 12Z SO HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POP WESTERN HALF AROUND
DAYBREAK...WHICH TECHNICALLY FALLS IN OUR TONIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND WILL HELP SAG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE POP IN FORECAST SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING PCPN.

AS FOR TODAY...SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING RESIDUAL STRATO CU
CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA IN CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF EASTERN LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN DURING THE DAY AND HELP BREAK UP THESE
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. CU RULE INDICATES SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SO GENERALLY TRENDED FROM MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MOST SUNSHINE POTENTIAL IN THE WEST.
WITH THESE CLOUDS AND RECENT MOS TRENDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON LOW SIDE
OF GUIDANCE IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

FEW CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST WITH START OF THE PERIOD FEATURING
DEPARTING MCS DISCUSSED IN SHORT TERM PORTION ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH BULK OF ANY PRECIP LIKELY EXITING BY THIS
POINT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT. WITH THE DEPARTING
CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN MOST SPOTS EXCEPT LAKE SHORE AREAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

FROM SUN NGT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR THE AREA.
BY NO MEANS IS A REPEAT OF THIS LAST UPPER LOW IN STORE WITH THIS
SETUP MUCH FURTHER NORTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO MOVE NORTH
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT WITH MAIN EFFECT BEING A
RETURN TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH 850 MB TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS OR EVEN ABOVE 20 C. THIS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
HIGHS BY THURS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LUD