[top]
000
FXUS63 KTOP 040523
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH TEMPO LOWER FIRST FEW HOURS
OF TAF PERIOD AS HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF
THE SITES. SHOWERS DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE AND LEAVE MID LEVEL DECK
BEHIND. MAY BREAK UP BY LATER IN THE DAY BUT HAVE NOT ADDED A
CHANGE GROUP FOR THIS ATTM. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BROWN COUNTY SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 20Z. THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
DEEPENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM. A SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE SFC TROUGH...NORTHEAST OF HLC SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA INTO SOUTHEAST KS. AN EML HAS OVER
SPREAD THE CWA...THUS SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KS...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
90S...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED WITH TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURE DEPRESSIONS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS MOVE EAST
AND ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE THEY MAY INTENSIFY GIVEN SFC BASED
CAPES OF 2,000 TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. THE
SPC MODIFIED RUC MODEL SHOWED GOOD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS WITH 0-3KM SRH OF 300 TO 400 J/KG AND 0-1KM SRH OF AROUND
200 J/KG. ANY STORM MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS LATER THIS EVENING
MAY INTENSIFY INTO A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...IF THE STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A LINE OR COMPLEX ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
EVENTUALLY A LINE OR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
A 5H TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
CAUSING A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CAA DEEPENS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GARGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUING AS A RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK IS WAY INTO THE
REGION AND GRADUALLY CLEAR SKIES. INDEPENDENCE EVENING LOOKING DRY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE NAM AND THE GFS HINT OF A WAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
ORIENTATED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. FURTHER
EAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LOWER. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST A SOUTH SOUTHEAST STORM MOVEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE MOISTURE...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW AND SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS PICK UP ON THE WAVE. THE GFS LOOKS
TO SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM EACH DAY WITH AREAS IN CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND THE
CENTURY MARK BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO LATER IN THE WEEK THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL YIELD HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 BY WEEKS END. WAVES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
WILL STAY WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE THE HOT SUMMER WEATHER IS COMING BACK.
53
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS63 KGLD 040512
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1112 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
244 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UPPER WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ADVECTING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS
MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ASSIST
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE DAY/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING
ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL GAIN A STRONGER FOOTHOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK THU-FRI WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ADVERTISE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER OK/KS BY
WED-THU OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH AS LATE AS THE 06Z RUN THE GFS WAS
SLOWER IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SEEM TO BE ON A SIMILAR TRACK NOW.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER WEST OF TRIBUNE WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WALLACE...LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SYRACUSE AND TRIBUNE
NORTHEAST TOWARD SCOTT CITY AND OVER TO WAKEENEY AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES OF 93-95 DEGREES WERE MET WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL WITH THESE
STORMS...AND NEAR AND ADJACENT TO THE WARM FRONT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES. WV SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR HAVE ALSO SHOWN A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO WHICH
WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THAT WILL ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
SAT/SUN/MON...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD BE
LACKING IN TERMS OF A THUNDERSTORM FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR STORM INITIATION ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE EAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS OTHER THAN
TWEAKING TEMPS A BIT...AND THE PREVIOUS HOT AND DRY FORECAST WAS
KEPT IN PLACE.
DLF
&&
.AVIATION...
1041 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS NEAR THE
GOODLAND AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
SERIOUS REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS. KMCK WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD LIFT AROUND 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT BOTH LOCATIONS.
LOCKHART
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KICT 040433
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NMRS TS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM SWRN THRU
CNTRL/NERN KS...WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 925 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL UTILIZE TEMPO TS AT SLN/HUT AND MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED ONE AT ICT IN THE EARLY AM HRS. OTHERWISE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH NW-NRLY
WINDS BEHIND IT. SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CNTRL KS
EARLY SAT AM BEHIND FRONT. CAP WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN BY LATE PM
WITH SCT TS DEVELOPING IN FAR SERN KS ALONG THE SWD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO NRN OK EARLY SAT EVE.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCT-NMRS STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVE
FROM W-CNTRL THRU N-CNTRL KS...RESULTING FROM STRONG CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG WIND GUSTS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE MAIN IMPACT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT RSL/SLN. MCS ACTIVITY
COULD PUSH SLIGHTLY SWD THRU CNTRL KS LATE TONIGHT AS 50KT S-SWRLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ALLOWS SWD PROPAGATION AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. THIS COULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO AFFECT HUT/ICT
TERMINALS EARLY SAT AM. OTHERWISE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU
SRN KS DURING DAY SAT. CAP WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN BY LATE PM WITH
SCT TS DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN KS BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES
INTO NRN OK SAT EVE.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND CUMULUS IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THAT COULD AFFECT A
PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THEY HAD BEEN INDICATING. CONTINUED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG SOUTHERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION MAY IN FACT BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
JUST A BIT...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK
REASONABLE WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY-THURSDAY:
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE A TRANSITION TO A MORE
SUMMER PATTERN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA HOT AND DRY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THERE IS
ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
THAT THERE WILL BE STORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
SCHRECK
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ATTENDENT
CONVECTION. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND PROPAGATES THAT EAST SOUTHEAST...WHILE GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT. NOT
TOTALLY DISCOUNTING NORTH AMERICAN MODEL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
IT BEING ACCURATE ENOUGH TO USE FOR TIMING IN THE TAFS IS A
STRETCH. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS PROBABLY A BIT SLOW AND
WENT WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. USED MAINLY VCTS FOR NOW...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING. APPEARS THAT FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST
SITES BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 72 87 67 87 / 30 30 10 10
HUTCHINSON 68 85 64 87 / 60 30 10 10
NEWTON 69 84 64 87 / 50 30 10 10
ELDORADO 70 86 63 87 / 30 30 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 73 88 68 87 / 20 30 30 10
RUSSELL 67 83 60 87 / 80 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 67 83 60 87 / 80 10 10 10
SALINA 70 84 63 87 / 80 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 69 84 64 86 / 60 30 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 75 90 67 88 / 20 30 30 10
CHANUTE 73 86 66 86 / 30 30 20 10
IOLA 74 84 66 85 / 30 30 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 74 89 66 87 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 040216
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
816 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
348 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOCALLY EXPAND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AND TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EXPANDED WATCH AREA OVER NEBRASKA.
LOCKHART
&&
.DISCUSSION...
244 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UPPER WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ADVECTING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS
MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ASSIST
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE DAY/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING
ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL GAIN A STRONGER FOOTHOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK THU-FRI WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ADVERTISE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER OK/KS BY
WED-THU OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH AS LATE AS THE 06Z RUN THE GFS WAS
SLOWER IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SEEM TO BE ON A SIMILAR TRACK NOW.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER WEST OF TRIBUNE WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WALLACE...LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SYRACUSE AND TRIBUNE
NORTHEAST TOWARD SCOTT CITY AND OVER TO WAKEENEY AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES OF 93-95 DEGREES WERE MET WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL WITH THESE
STORMS...AND NEAR AND ADJACENT TO THE WARM FRONT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES. WV SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR HAVE ALSO SHOWN A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO WHICH
WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THAT WILL ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
SAT/SUN/MON...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD BE
LACKING IN TERMS OF A THUNDERSTORM FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR STORM INITIATION ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE EAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS OTHER THAN
TWEAKING TEMPS A BIT...AND THE PREVIOUS HOT AND DRY FORECAST WAS
KEPT IN PLACE.
DLF
&&
.AVIATION...
815 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...CURRENT CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST COLORADO SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN
AROUND 04Z-06Z. OTHER AVIATION INTEREST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS AT BOTH SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW, HAVE
MENTIONED A SCT DECK AT 008 TO INDICATE POTENTIAL AND WILL LET
LATER ISSUANCE REVISIT. SHOULD SUB-MVFR CIGS DEVELOP, CIGS WILL
BURN OFF/RAISE BY AROUND 14Z WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY AROUND 15G20KTS.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 032338
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
COMPLEX OF STORMS MAIN IMPACT TO TAF SITES NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AREA
OF STORMS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS
TIME AND UPGRADE AS NEEDED. WINDS MAY BE STRONG AS THE STORMS
PASS. EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BRING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH
NORTH WINDS AND MID CLOUDS. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BROWN COUNTY SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 20Z. THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
DEEPENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM. A SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE SFC TROUGH...NORTHEAST OF HLC SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA INTO SOUTHEAST KS. AN EML HAS OVER
SPREAD THE CWA...THUS SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KS...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
90S...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED WITH TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURE DEPRESSIONS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS MOVE EAST
AND ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE THEY MAY INTENSIFY GIVEN SFC BASED
CAPES OF 2,000 TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. THE
SPC MODIFIED RUC MODEL SHOWED GOOD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS WITH 0-3KM SRH OF 300 TO 400 J/KG AND 0-1KM SRH OF AROUND
200 J/KG. ANY STORM MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS LATER THIS EVENING
MAY INTENSIFY INTO A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...IF THE STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A LINE OR COMPLEX ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
EVENTUALLY A LINE OR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
A 5H TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
CAUSING A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CAA DEEPENS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GARGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUING AS A RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK IS WAY INTO THE
REGION AND GRADUALLY CLEAR SKIES. INDEPENDENCE EVENING LOOKING DRY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE NAM AND THE GFS HINT OF A WAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
ORIENTATED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. FURTHER
EAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LOWER. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST A SOUTH SOUTHEAST STORM MOVEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE MOISTURE...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW AND SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS PICK UP ON THE WAVE. THE GFS LOOKS
TO SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM EACH DAY WITH AREAS IN CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND THE
CENTURY MARK BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO LATER IN THE WEEK THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL YIELD HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 BY WEEKS END. WAVES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
WILL STAY WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE THE HOT SUMMER WEATHER IS COMING BACK.
53
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 032329
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCT-NMRS STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVE
FROM W-CNTRL THRU N-CNTRL KS...RESULTING FROM STRONG CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG WIND GUSTS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE MAIN IMPACT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT RSL/SLN. MCS ACTIVITY
COULD PUSH SLIGHTLY SWD THRU CNTRL KS LATE TONIGHT AS 50KT S-SWRLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ALLOWS SWD PROPAGATION AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. THIS COULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO AFFECT HUT/ICT
TERMINALS EARLY SAT AM. OTHERWISE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU
SRN KS DURING DAY SAT. CAP WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN BY LATE PM WITH
SCT TS DEVELOPING ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN KS BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES
INTO NRN OK SAT EVE.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND CUMULUS IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THAT COULD AFFECT A
PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THEY HAD BEEN INDICATING. CONTINUED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG SOUTHERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION MAY IN FACT BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
JUST A BIT...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK
REASONABLE WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY-THURSDAY:
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE A TRANSITION TO A MORE
SUMMER PATTERN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA HOT AND DRY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THERE IS
ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
THAT THERE WILL BE STORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
SCHRECK
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ATTENDENT
CONVECTION. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND PROPAGATES THAT EAST SOUTHEAST...WHILE GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT. NOT
TOTALLY DISCOUNTING NORTH AMERICAN MODEL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
IT BEING ACCURATE ENOUGH TO USE FOR TIMING IN THE TAFS IS A
STRETCH. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS PROBABLY A BIT SLOW AND
WENT WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. USED MAINLY VCTS FOR NOW...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING. APPEARS THAT FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST
SITES BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 72 87 67 87 / 30 30 10 10
HUTCHINSON 68 85 64 87 / 40 30 10 10
NEWTON 69 84 64 87 / 30 30 10 10
ELDORADO 70 86 63 87 / 30 30 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 73 88 68 87 / 20 30 30 10
RUSSELL 67 83 60 87 / 70 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 64 83 60 87 / 60 10 10 10
SALINA 70 84 63 87 / 60 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 68 84 64 86 / 40 30 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 75 90 67 88 / 20 30 30 10
CHANUTE 73 86 66 86 / 30 30 20 10
IOLA 74 84 66 85 / 30 30 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 74 89 66 87 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 032152
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
348 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOCALLY EXPAND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AND TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EXPANDED WATCH AREA OVER NEBRASKA.
LOCKHART
&&
.DISCUSSION...
244 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UPPER WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ADVECTING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS
MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ASSIST
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE DAY/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING
ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL GAIN A STRONGER FOOTHOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK THU-FRI WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ADVERTISE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER OK/KS BY
WED-THU OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH AS LATE AS THE 06Z RUN THE GFS WAS
SLOWER IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SEEM TO BE ON A SIMILAR TRACK NOW.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER WEST OF TRIBUNE WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WALLACE...LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SYRACUSE AND TRIBUNE
NORTHEAST TOWARD SCOTT CITY AND OVER TO WAKEENEY AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES OF 93-95 DEGREES WERE MET WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL WITH THESE
STORMS...AND NEAR AND ADJACENT TO THE WARM FRONT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES. WV SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR HAVE ALSO SHOWN A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO WHICH
WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THAT WILL ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
SAT/SUN/MON...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD BE
LACKING IN TERMS OF A THUNDERSTORM FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR STORM INITIATION ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE EAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS OTHER THAN
TWEAKING TEMPS A BIT...AND THE PREVIOUS HOT AND DRY FORECAST WAS
KEPT IN PLACE.
DLF
&&
.AVIATION...
1124 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...WILL BE EXPECTING CB`S AT KGLD
BY 22Z WITH VCTS AND/OR -TSRA FROM 23Z-04Z AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AFTER 06Z NORTH WINDS WILL USHER
IN THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-1000 FT THROUGH
14Z BEFORE LIFTING/DISSIPATING.
AT KMCK MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT WILL LIFT TO AROUND 2500 FT WHILE
ALSO BECOMING SCATTERED AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH.
CB`S WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z. AS WITH KGLD AM EXPECTING
MVFR/IFR CIGS OF 800 FT WITH SOME POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO STRATUS/FOG. FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS IN FUTURE
TAFS...FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS WITH NO
REDUCTIONS IN VIS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 032044
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
244 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS COVERAGE AND TIMING OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UPPER WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ADVECTING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS
MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ASSIST
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE DAY/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING
ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL GAIN A STRONGER FOOTHOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST AS MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK THU-FRI WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ADVERTISE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER OK/KS BY
WED-THU OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH AS LATE AS THE 06Z RUN THE GFS WAS
SLOWER IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SEEM TO BE ON A SIMILAR TRACK NOW.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER WEST OF TRIBUNE WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WALLACE...LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM SYRACUSE AND TRIBUNE
NORTHEAST TOWARD SCOTT CITY AND OVER TO WAKEENEY AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES OF 93-95 DEGREES WERE MET WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL WITH THESE
STORMS...AND NEAR AND ADJACENT TO THE WARM FRONT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES. WV SATELLITE AND COMPOSITE RADAR HAVE ALSO SHOWN A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WYOMING AND COLORADO WHICH
WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THAT WILL ALSO BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
SAT/SUN/MON...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF LATE DAY AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO. SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD BE
LACKING IN TERMS OF A THUNDERSTORM FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR STORM INITIATION ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE EAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS OTHER THAN
TWEAKING TEMPS A BIT...AND THE PREVIOUS HOT AND DRY FORECAST WAS
KEPT IN PLACE.
DLF
&&
.AVIATION...
1124 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...WILL BE EXPECTING CB`S AT KGLD
BY 22Z WITH VCTS AND/OR -TSRA FROM 23Z-04Z AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AFTER 06Z NORTH WINDS WILL USHER
IN THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-1000 FT THROUGH
14Z BEFORE LIFTING/DISIPATING.
AT KMCK MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT WILL LIFT TO AROUND 2500 FT WHILE
ALSO BECOMING SCATTERED AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH.
CB`S WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z. AS WITH KGLD AM EXPECTING
MVFR/IFR CIGS OF 800 FT WITH SOME POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS IN
VISILIBITY DUE TO STRATUS/FOG. FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS IN FUTURE
TAFS...FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS WITH NO
REDUCTIONS IN VIS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 032016
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BROWN COUNTY SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 20Z. THIS AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
DEEPENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS...SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM. A SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE SFC TROUGH...NORTHEAST OF HLC SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA INTO SOUTHEAST KS. AN EML HAS OVER
SPREAD THE CWA...THUS SFC BASED STORMS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KS...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
90S...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED WITH TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURE DEPRESSIONS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS MOVE EAST
AND ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE THEY MAY INTENSIFY GIVEN SFC BASED
CAPES OF 2,000 TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. THE
SPC MODIFIED RUC MODEL SHOWED GOOD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS WITH 0-3KM SRH OF 300 TO 400 J/KG AND 0-1KM SRH OF AROUND
200 J/KG. ANY STORM MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS LATER THIS EVENING
MAY INTENSIFY INTO A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...IF THE STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A LINE OR COMPLEX ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
EVENTUALLY A LINE OR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
A 5H TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
CAUSING A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CAA DEEPENS
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOWER
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GARGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUING AS A RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK IS WAY INTO THE
REGION AND GRADUALLY CLEAR SKIES. INDEPENDENCE EVENING LOOKING DRY
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE NAM AND THE GFS HINT OF A WAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
ORIENTATED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. FURTHER
EAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LOWER. CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST A SOUTH SOUTHEAST STORM MOVEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
THE MOISTURE...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW AND SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS PICK UP ON THE WAVE. THE GFS LOOKS
TO SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM EACH DAY WITH AREAS IN CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND THE
CENTURY MARK BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO LATER IN THE WEEK THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL YIELD HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 BY WEEKS END. WAVES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
WILL STAY WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOOKS LIKE THE HOT SUMMER WEATHER IS COMING BACK.
53
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES. MAY SEE A
FEW TO SCT BOUNDARY LAYER CU REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 6Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SAT...SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 032010
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND CUMULUS IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THAT COULD AFFECT A
PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL. HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WOULD EXPECT MAINLY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT
COMING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THEY HAD BEEN INDICATING. CONTINUED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG SOUTHERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION MAY IN FACT BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
JUST A BIT...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK
REASONABLE WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY-THURSDAY:
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE A TRANSITION TO A MORE
SUMMER PATTERN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY...LEAVING THE
FORECAST AREA HOT AND DRY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...THERE IS
ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH CONFIDENCE LOW
THAT THERE WILL BE STORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
SCHRECK
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ATTENDENT
CONVECTION. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND PROPAGATES THAT EAST SOUTHEAST...WHILE GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT. NOT
TOTALLY DISCOUNTING NORTH AMERICAN MODEL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
IT BEING ACCURATE ENOUGH TO USE FOR TIMING IN THE TAFS IS A
STRETCH. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS PROBABLY A BIT SLOW AND
WENT WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. USED MAINLY VCTS FOR NOW...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING. APPEARS THAT FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST
SITES BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 72 87 67 87 / 30 30 10 10
HUTCHINSON 68 85 64 87 / 40 30 10 10
NEWTON 69 84 64 87 / 30 30 10 10
ELDORADO 70 86 63 87 / 30 30 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 73 88 68 87 / 20 30 30 10
RUSSELL 67 83 60 87 / 70 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 64 83 60 87 / 60 10 10 10
SALINA 70 84 63 87 / 60 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 68 84 64 86 / 40 30 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 75 90 67 88 / 20 30 30 10
CHANUTE 73 86 66 86 / 30 30 20 10
IOLA 74 84 66 85 / 30 30 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 74 89 66 87 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KDDC 031939
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT FROM COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS INTO THE EVENING WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INVERTED V, HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE NORTH
AROUND WAKEENEY THEN MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK
MCS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS NORTH AND TAPER TO 30 POPS SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S LOOK GOOD AS SOUTH WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY 15Z AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST.
FOR SATURDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WITH NORTH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 850MB TEMPS COOL TO AROUND 22C WITH
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FAR SOUTHEAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND ALSO NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE FORCING HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE AREA.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE NAM
MODEL SHOWING NEARLY SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S LOOK REASONABLE.
ON SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE. WITH GOOD MOISTURE POOLING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO A FEW STORMS MAY GET INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE
FROM EASTERN COLORADO WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP SMALL
POPS WEST TO COVER. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
DAYS 3-7...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ANTICIPATING WHEN
SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT WILL OCCUR TO PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SUBSEQUENT PROPAGATION INTO
WESTERN KANSAS.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION BETWEEN
80 AND 100 DEGREES WEST. GLOBAL RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR
MOMENTUM IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...BUT TENDENCIES ARE NEGATIVE. GSDM
PHASE 1 SEEMS TO PROVIDE A REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. PHASE ONE IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN CANADA WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ALL ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH TEMPORARILY RETROGRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE GREAT
BASIN BY SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY MID WEEK. THE USUAL DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THAT RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW NORTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ACTUALLY ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A
MEAN TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST IN THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THAN THE GFS AND SEEMS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF EVOLUTION OF THE FLOW.
AS SUCH...THE GRIDS MODIFICATIONS LARGELY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL INTO OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY,
HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW, SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT CHANGES
LITTLE ON TUESDAY, AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR YET ANOTHER CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE DISSIPATING
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HAVE PROGRESSED TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND
INCREASING FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO THE ROCKIES WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF
EXTREMELY WARM MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A HOT, DRY
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE AMPLITUDE WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING THAN THE GFS OR
THE 00Z ECMWF, AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD MOVE INTO KANSAS ON FRIDAY. EVEN SO, CONTINUED WARMTH IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON DAY 7 YET.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIKELY WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE ROCKIES DURING
WEEK TWO WITH A RETURN OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY,
BUT MINOR WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST A CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
&&
AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 070 AND WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND WILL PROPAGATE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY MORNING. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN THREE MILES AND CEILINGS 030-040 WITH CBS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER...AND CEILINGS NEAR
030 MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHERN KANSAS IN THE
RAIN COOLED AIR BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. A COLD FRONT
ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT AND WILL EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AT 15 TO
20 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 89 63 87 / 50 30 10 0
GCK 65 87 62 86 / 50 10 10 10
EHA 65 87 62 86 / 30 20 20 20
LBL 67 89 62 87 / 30 20 20 20
HYS 66 85 62 86 / 70 20 10 0
P28 72 91 65 89 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN06/01/01
000
FXUS63 KICT 031813
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
113 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BOTH ALONG
DRYLINE CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AND COLD FRONT.
BOTH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SUGGEST
VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY /LESS THAN 500/
IN THE VICINITY OF DRYLINE...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG FRONT.
HOWEVER PROFILERS/VWP SHOW RESPECTABLE HODOGRAPHS...SO IF ANYTHING
DOES DEVELOP...WOULD NEED TO BE WATCHED. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LOOK RATHER SLIM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND TRIMMED
BACK ON PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY THROUGH 0000 UTC.
MUCH BETTER CHANCE LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ATTENDENT
CONVECTION. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL DEVELOPS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
FRONT AND PROPAGATES THAT EAST SOUTHEAST...WHILE GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL KEEPS PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT. NOT
TOTALLY DISCOUNTING NORTH AMERICAN MODEL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
IT BEING ACCURATE ENOUGH TO USE FOR TIMING IN THE TAFS IS A
STRETCH. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS PROBABLY A BIT SLOW AND
WENT WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. USED MAINLY VCTS FOR NOW...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING. APPEARS THAT FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST
SITES BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...PUSHING OUT
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID-MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO MIDDAY...THOUGH WILL LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. WILL LIMIT
MENTION FOR NOW TO VCTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
KED
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING SE KS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 310-315K SURFACES. THIS IS ALSO IN AN
AREA OF STRONG 850MB-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE RUC AND NAM ARE
BOTH DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND LINGER IT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AND PUSHING IT EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
15Z-18Z. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
START ITS JOURNEY SOUTH. BY 00Z SAT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED GENERALLY ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER. AN MCS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WHILE STORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
AREAL COVERAGE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS CONSIDERING VEERING 850MB WINDS
DECREASING THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STILL FEEL THE MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER DYNAMICS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THU WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 90S.
SAT-SUN:
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR BOTH SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. GFS...NAM AND UKMET ALL AGREE ON THE FRONT TO SURGE
SOUTH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BY 18Z SAT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SE KS WITH MINIMAL
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION BOTH GFS AND NAM
SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER SE KS WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. THEREFORE TOOK OUT MENTION OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL
KS FOR SAT AND ALSO DECREASED POPS FOR BOTH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS.
BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE DOWN ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THUS
FURTHER DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. THE FURTHER SOUTH FRONTAL POSITION
WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 80S AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE A NICE BREAK BEFORE THE
HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
MON-THU:
THE THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT
WITH 100S POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR MON AND TUE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR BOTH MON AND TUE.
HOWEVER WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED IF SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ADDED BACK IN WITH ADDITIONAL
FORECASTS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN FOR
WED-THU WHICH WILL PUMP UP THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION THIS WILL REALLY ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO GET CRANKED UP TO
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 100 FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THU.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 97 73 86 64 / 10 30 20 20
HUTCHINSON 98 72 85 63 / 10 40 20 20
NEWTON 96 72 85 64 / 10 30 20 20
ELDORADO 96 72 85 64 / 10 30 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 97 74 87 65 / 10 20 20 30
RUSSELL 97 67 84 61 / 20 50 10 10
GREAT BEND 98 70 84 62 / 20 50 10 10
SALINA 96 69 83 62 / 20 50 20 10
MCPHERSON 97 71 84 63 / 10 40 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 94 73 88 65 / 30 20 30 30
CHANUTE 93 72 85 64 / 40 30 30 20
IOLA 92 72 84 64 / 40 30 30 20
PARSONS-KPPF 93 73 87 65 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 031734
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 18 UTC AVIATION AND FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA WAA/ISENTROPIC IS SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.
SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS AND MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS MAY CONGEAL
AND FORM A SQUALL LINE OR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS
CONVECTION DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. I LOWERED HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS CLOUD
COVER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHERE
SKIES ARE CLEARING TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...SO WE COULD SEE LOWER 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. NOTICED DDC HAD 25 DEGREE TEMP AT
850MB ON 12Z ROAB...AND EXPECT THIS EML TO OVERSPREAD WARM
SECTOR...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES. MAY SEE A
FEW TO SCT BOUNDARY LAYER CU REDEVELOP AFTER 20Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 6Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z SAT...SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION.../250 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/ THIS
MORNING...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE AXIS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE EDGE
OF A 20C OR GREATER H85 THERMAL RIDGE SITUATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA. SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A ILL-
DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE FORM OF A MODEST 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AS
INDICATED BY DDC/ICT VERTICAL WIND PROFILER DATA WITH ASCENT OVER
THE BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW HINTS OF
THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA...SO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR TSRA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO 18Z. WITH LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND FREEZING HEIGHTS
STILL HIGH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY.
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
RESULT IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH/MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND STALL NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED STATE LINE AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...THANKS IN PART TO THE
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FROM 25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 40KTS BY EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH MORE
THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES AND SBCAPE PARCELS AROUND 1500 J/KG.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL STORM IN
PART TO INCREASED RESIDENCE TIME AND MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EARLY THIS EVENING
NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...PENDING
SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS POTENTIAL AGAIN IS THE
RESULT OF GREATLY IMPROVED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES THIS EVENING
WITH 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 250 M^2/S^2 BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND
WITHIN THE WINDOW WHERE THE LOW LEVELS CAN REMAIN COUPLED PRIOR TO
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION SHOULD SEED EACH OTHER AND
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR CLUSTERS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE DECOUPLED BL ALONG WITH WANING
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMETIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT ARE LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKELY. THEREFORE
HAVE TRIMMED BACK AND/OR REMOVED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THEREAFTER...DRY FORECAST IN THE WORKS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
BLAIR
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
GARGAN
000
FXUS63 KGLD 031733
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
1124 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
WILL BE WATCHING FOR 2 AREAS OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TRIED TO FINE TUNE 3
HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 00Z WHILE COORDINATING GRIDS AFTER 00Z
WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER. SEE HWOGLD PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...CU STARTING TO DEVELOP QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/MOUNTAINS AS CINH DECREASES RAPIDLY. AS WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
INTO THE LOW 90S WHILE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LOW CLOUDS AND
DISTANCE FROM WARM FRONT WILL LIMIT INCREASE IN TEMPS SOMEWHAT.
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 80S FAR NORTH...MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
07
&&
.DISCUSSION...
257 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. KGLD 88-D SHOWING MAIN AREA OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
A RIDGE...FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE...WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES SAT/SUN WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS.
FOR THIS MORNING...RADAR STILL GETTING RETURNS ON LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PLAN ON INSERTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO COVER THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. DYNAMICS APPEAR GOOD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
BY 06Z SAT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD END BY
12Z SAT. UPSLOPE WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS EASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
90S EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES SAT/SUN WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE
TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL WITH A DROP FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S TO THE UPPER 50S SAT NIGHT.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1124 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...WILL BE EXPECTING CB`S AT KGLD
BY 22Z WITH VCTS AND/OR -TSRA FROM 23Z-04Z AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. AFTER 06Z NORTH WINDS WILL USHER
IN THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-1000 FT THROUGH
14Z BEFORE LIFTING/DISIPATING.
AT KMCK MVFR CIGS OF 1500 FT WILL LIFT TO AROUND 2500 FT WHILE
ALSO BECOMING SCATTERED AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH.
CB`S WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z. AS WITH KGLD AM EXPECTING
MVFR/IFR CIGS OF 800 FT WITH SOME POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS IN
VISILIBITY DUE TO STRATUS/FOG. FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS IN FUTURE
TAFS...FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS WITH NO
REDUCTIONS IN VIS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 031143
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
257 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. KGLD 88-D SHOWING MAIN AREA OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
A RIDGE...FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE...WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES SAT/SUN WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS.
FOR THIS MORNING...RADAR STILL GETTING RETURNS ON LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PLAN ON INSERTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO COVER THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. DYNAMICS APPEAR GOOD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
BY 06Z SAT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD END BY
12Z SAT. UPSLOPE WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS EASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
90S EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES SAT/SUN WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE
TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL WITH A DROP FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S TO THE UPPER 50S SAT NIGHT.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
543 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE
MVFR...GUSTY WIND AND HAIL...WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 031135
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...PUSHING OUT
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID-MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO MIDDAY...THOUGH WILL LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. WILL LIMIT
MENTION FOR NOW TO VCTS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM
ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING SE KS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 310-315K SURFACES. THIS IS ALSO IN AN
AREA OF STRONG 850MB-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE RUC AND NAM ARE
BOTH DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND LINGER IT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AND PUSHING IT EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
15Z-18Z. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
START ITS JOURNEY SOUTH. BY 00Z SAT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED GENERALLY ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER. AN MCS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WHILE STORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
AREAL COVERAGE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS CONSIDERING VEERING 850MB WINDS
DECREASING THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STILL FEEL THE MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER DYNAMICS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THU WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 90S.
SAT-SUN:
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR BOTH SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. GFS...NAM AND UKMET ALL AGREE ON THE FRONT TO SURGE
SOUTH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BY 18Z SAT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SE KS WITH MINIMAL
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION BOTH GFS AND NAM
SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER SE KS WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. THEREFORE TOOK OUT MENTION OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL
KS FOR SAT AND ALSO DECREASED POPS FOR BOTH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS.
BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE DOWN ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THUS
FURTHER DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. THE FURTHER SOUTH FRONTAL POSITION
WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 80S AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE A NICE BREAK BEFORE THE
HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
MON-THU:
THE THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT
WITH 100S POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR MON AND TUE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR BOTH MON AND TUE.
HOWEVER WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED IF SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ADDED BACK IN WITH ADDITIONAL
FORECASTS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN FOR
WED-THU WHICH WILL PUMP UP THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION THIS WILL REALLY ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO GET CRANKED UP TO
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 100 FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THU.
LAWSON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCT TS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL KS IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SRLY LOW-
LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...SCT TS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD OVER CNTRL/SERN KS WITHIN
THIS ZONE OF CONCENTRATED LIFT. MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE RSL/SLN/CNU WHERE VCTS WILL BE UTILIZED. FRONT
TEMPORARILY LIFTS INTO NRN KS FRI PM WITH WINDS BECOMING
SRLY/GUSTY. OTHER TS SHOULD DEVELOP VCNTY OF FRONTAL ZONE/THERMAL
TROF AXIS OVER NRN/NWRN KS LATE FRI PM/EVE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL KS BY LATE FRI EVE.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 96 73 86 64 / 10 30 20 20
HUTCHINSON 97 72 85 63 / 10 40 20 20
NEWTON 95 72 85 64 / 10 30 20 20
ELDORADO 95 72 85 64 / 20 30 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 96 74 87 65 / 10 20 20 30
RUSSELL 96 67 84 61 / 20 50 10 10
GREAT BEND 97 70 84 62 / 20 50 10 10
SALINA 95 69 83 62 / 20 50 20 10
MCPHERSON 96 71 84 63 / 10 40 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 93 73 88 65 / 30 20 30 30
CHANUTE 92 72 85 64 / 40 30 30 20
IOLA 91 72 84 64 / 40 30 30 20
PARSONS-KPPF 92 73 87 65 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 031126
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
BAND OF TS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON THE RUC AND NAM 310K SFC. MODELS SHOW THIS
LIFT CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT 1121Z SHOWING
SOME ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS FORMING JUST WEST OF TOP AND FOE. THEREFORE
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR TSRA THROUGH 14Z. ONCE BAND OF STORMS
MOVES EAST...THINK REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPED. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
WATCH CENTRAL KS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE CIN IS FORECAST TO BE
MINIMIZED...BUT ANY LATE AFTERNOON TS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS WHERE STRONGER WARMING WILL OCCUR.
WOLTERS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../250 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
THIS MORNING...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE AXIS
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
EDGE OF A 20C OR GREATER H85 THERMAL RIDGE SITUATED JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CWA. SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A
ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE FORM OF A MODEST 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AS
INDICATED BY DDC/ICT VERTICAL WIND PROFILER DATA WITH ASCENT OVER
THE BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW HINTS OF
THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA...SO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR TSRA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO 18Z. WITH LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND FREEZING HEIGHTS
STILL HIGH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY.
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
RESULT IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH/MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND STALL NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED STATE LINE AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...THANKS IN PART TO THE
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FROM 25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 40KTS BY EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH MORE
THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES AND SBCAPE PARCELS AROUND 1500 J/KG.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL STORM IN
PART TO INCREASED RESIDENCE TIME AND MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EARLY THIS EVENING
NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...PENDING
SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS POTENTIAL AGAIN IS THE
RESULT OF GREATLY IMPROVED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES THIS EVENING
WITH 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 250 M^2/S^2 BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND
WITHIN THE WINDOW WHERE THE LOW LEVELS CAN REMAIN COUPLED PRIOR TO
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION SHOULD SEED EACH OTHER AND
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR CLUSTERS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE DECOUPLED BL ALONG WITH WANING
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMETIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT ARE LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKELY. THEREFORE
HAVE TRIMMED BACK AND/OR REMOVED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THEREAFTER...DRY FORECAST IN THE WORKS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
BLAIR
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 030858
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
258 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
257 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. KGLD 88-D SHOWING MAIN AREA OF STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
A RIDGE...FLATTENED BY A SHORTWAVE...WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES SAT/SUN WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS.
FOR THIS MORNING...RADAR STILL GETTING RETURNS ON LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PLAN ON INSERTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO COVER THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. DYNAMICS APPEAR GOOD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
BY 06Z SAT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD END BY
12Z SAT. UPSLOPE WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS EASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
90S EXPECTED. MAX TEMPERATURES SAT/SUN WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE
TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL WITH A DROP FROM THE
LOWER/MID 60S TO THE UPPER 50S SAT NIGHT.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1057 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAF...CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR KGLD WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS
STRONGEST CELLS SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST. LATEST HRRR/RUC
WOULD INDICATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
REACHING KMCK SO NO MENTION THERE. WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES INCLUSION FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
FOLTZ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 030822
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING SE KS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 310-315K SURFACES. THIS IS ALSO IN AN
AREA OF STRONG 850MB-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE RUC AND NAM ARE
BOTH DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND LINGER IT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AND PUSHING IT EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
15Z-18Z. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
START ITS JOURNEY SOUTH. BY 00Z SAT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED GENERALLY ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER. AN MCS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THIS FEATURE WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WHILE STORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA...NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
AREAL COVERAGE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS CONSIDERING VEERING 850MB WINDS
DECREASING THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. STILL FEEL THE MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER DYNAMICS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THU WITH PARTIAL
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 90S.
SAT-SUN:
MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR BOTH SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. GFS...NAM AND UKMET ALL AGREE ON THE FRONT TO SURGE
SOUTH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BY 18Z SAT THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SE KS WITH MINIMAL
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION BOTH GFS AND NAM
SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER SE KS WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. THEREFORE TOOK OUT MENTION OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL
KS FOR SAT AND ALSO DECREASED POPS FOR BOTH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS.
BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE DOWN ALONG THE RED RIVER AND THUS
FURTHER DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. THE FURTHER SOUTH FRONTAL POSITION
WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 80S AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE A NICE BREAK BEFORE THE
HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
MON-THU:
THE THEME THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT
WITH 100S POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR MON AND TUE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT FOR BOTH MON AND TUE.
HOWEVER WITH SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA...WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED IF SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ADDED BACK IN WITH ADDITIONAL
FORECASTS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN FOR
WED-THU WHICH WILL PUMP UP THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION THIS WILL REALLY ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO GET CRANKED UP TO
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 100 FOR AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THU.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCT TS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL KS IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SRLY LOW-
LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...SCT TS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD OVER CNTRL/SERN KS WITHIN
THIS ZONE OF CONCENTRATED LIFT. MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE RSL/SLN/CNU WHERE VCTS WILL BE UTILIZED. FRONT
TEMPORARILY LIFTS INTO NRN KS FRI PM WITH WINDS BECOMING
SRLY/GUSTY. OTHER TS SHOULD DEVELOP VCNTY OF FRONTAL ZONE/THERMAL
TROF AXIS OVER NRN/NWRN KS LATE FRI PM/EVE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL KS BY LATE FRI EVE.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 96 73 86 64 / 10 30 20 20
HUTCHINSON 97 72 85 63 / 10 40 20 20
NEWTON 95 72 85 64 / 10 30 20 20
ELDORADO 95 72 85 64 / 20 30 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 96 73 87 65 / 10 20 20 30
RUSSELL 96 67 82 61 / 20 50 10 10
GREAT BEND 97 70 84 62 / 20 50 10 10
SALINA 95 69 82 62 / 20 50 20 10
MCPHERSON 96 71 84 63 / 10 40 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 93 74 88 65 / 30 20 30 30
CHANUTE 92 72 85 64 / 40 30 30 20
IOLA 91 72 84 64 / 40 30 30 20
PARSONS-KPPF 92 73 87 65 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 030750
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
250 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE AXIS
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
EDGE OF A 20C OR GREATER H85 THERMAL RIDGE SITUATED JUST SOUTHWEST
OF THE CWA. SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A
ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE FORM OF A MODEST 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AS
INDICATED BY DDC/ICT VERTICAL WIND PROFILER DATA WITH ASCENT OVER
THE BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW HINTS OF
THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE UPSTREAM OF THE CWA...SO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR TSRA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO 18Z. WITH LIMITED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND FREEZING HEIGHTS
STILL HIGH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY.
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
RESULT IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH/MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND STALL NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED STATE LINE AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...THANKS IN PART TO THE
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FROM 25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 40KTS BY EARLY EVENING. INITIAL
CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH MORE
THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES AND SBCAPE PARCELS AROUND 1500 J/KG.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL STORM IN
PART TO INCREASED RESIDENCE TIME AND MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EARLY THIS EVENING
NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...PENDING
SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS POTENTIAL AGAIN IS THE
RESULT OF GREATLY IMPROVED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES THIS EVENING
WITH 0-1KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 250 M^2/S^2 BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND
WITHIN THE WINDOW WHERE THE LOW LEVELS CAN REMAIN COUPLED PRIOR TO
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION SHOULD SEED EACH OTHER AND
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR CLUSTERS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE DECOUPLED BL ALONG WITH WANING
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOMETIME AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT ARE LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKELY. THEREFORE
HAVE TRIMMED BACK AND/OR REMOVED POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THEREAFTER...DRY FORECAST IN THE WORKS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
BLAIR
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO TAFS THIS UPDATE. BAND OF SHRA/TS HAS DEVELOPED
OUT WEST AND WILL USE TEMPO GROUP OVER MHK TO COVER. ALTHOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GOOD...ATMOSPHERE NOT VERY UNSTABLE SO EXPECT
MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDER. BAND MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND MAY NEED TO
AMEND TOP/FOE AS SHOWERS APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
CARRY VCTS AND DROP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 030740
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
OF EASTERN COLORADO. THIS CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND JUST EDGING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) AND LOW 60S(F).
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY TONIGHT. THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
DISLODGE THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER AND
PUSH IT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND IT. THIS WILL HELP BRING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS AT H85 IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS(C). CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE BETTER ACROSS MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INITIALLY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH. IT IS ALSO WHERE THE PROXIMITY TO
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND VERTICAL LIFT WILL RESIDE. ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO CONTINUE 50 POPS NORTH WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END
CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM JUST ALONG
OUR SOUTHERN FRINGE IN THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO OUR
MORE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY SATURDAY. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER
MAINLY ACROSS OUR MORE SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER DUE
TO DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH INTO KANSAS. BECAUSE OF THIS,
WILL DROP POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MAY MARGINALLY INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP, ESPECIALLY WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING PRESENT.
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM, ESPECIALLY AS A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS SETTLED IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FOR TODAY, THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85
RANGING FROM AROUND 27C ACROSS MORE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO NEAR 30C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S(F) NORTH WITH NEAR 100F POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RELAX EVER SO SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS(C)
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S(C) IN OUR SOUTHEAST. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 60S(F) WITH LOWER 70S(F) POSSIBLE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST WHERE
THE FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. A RELATIVE COOL DOWN WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING SOUTH INTO KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS(C) EAST TO THE MID
20S(C) WEST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S(F) ACROSS
THE CWA WITH A FEW LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHWEST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, PLAN
TO DROP LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
ELSEWHERE.
DAYS 3-7...
WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...NOW LEANING
TOWARD PUSHING ALL THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE
ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST
BUT WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH
CHANCES DECREASING TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK. THINK THAT THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AROUND HAYS TONIGHT
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT GARDEN CITY AND
DODGE CITY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AROUND
HAYS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100 68 87 63 / 0 30 20 20
GCK 98 65 87 62 / 10 30 20 20
EHA 100 65 87 62 / 0 20 20 30
LBL 101 67 89 62 / 0 20 20 20
HYS 95 65 85 63 / 30 50 20 10
P28 100 70 93 65 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN32/02/02
000
FXUS63 KGLD 030500
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
1225 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND HAS MOVED
LITTLE IN RECENT DAYS WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS TRANSLATED
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION. THIS REGIME HAS
ALLOWED NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN OUT WEST IN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WHILE DRIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING CINH.
MARGINAL LLJ WOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED WITH EXPECTED MCS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE STEERING 320K MIXING
RATIOS OF 7-8+ G/KG OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING PWATS
150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...STRONG SUPPORT FOR TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK WED-THU WITH VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...
1057 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAF...CONVECTION ONGOING NEAR KGLD WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS
STRONGEST CELLS SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST. LATEST HRRR/RUC
WOULD INDICATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
REACHING KMCK SO NO MENTION THERE. WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES INCLUSION FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
FOLTZ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 030441
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO TAFS THIS UPDATE. BAND OF SHRA/TS HAS DEVELOPED
OUT WEST AND WILL USE TEMPO GROUP OVER MHK TO COVER. ALTHOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GOOD...ATMOSPHERE NOT VERY UNSTABLE SO EXPECT
MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDER. BAND MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND MAY NEED TO
AMEND TOP/FOE AS SHOWERS APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
CARRY VCTS AND DROP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
NORTH TX WITH A 5H RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN KS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AT THE 310 DEGREE K
POTENTIAL TEMP SFC AFTER 6Z AS 850MB WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DEEP MOISTURE WAS NOTED ON
THE 12Z 850MB MAP ACROSS WEST TX...WITH MAF HAVING A 16 DEG C 850MB
DEWPOINT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. MUCAPE WILL
ONLY BE 500 TO 800 J/KG...THUS THE ONLY HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS TONIGHT MAY BE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
ONCE THE STRONGER WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY
LATE MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIP END WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE CLOUD COVER. A 5H TROUGH WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NE
INTO NORTHEAST KS AND WESTERN IA. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WILL INCREASE TO
40 TO 45 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING...DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SBCAPE VALUES TO
REACH AOA 3,000 J/KG. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE SFC FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH I CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE BACKED. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WITH MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
GARGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BE
PRESENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE NOSE
OF THE JET FOCUSED INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
AIRMASS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING POOLING
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. COULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SQUALL LINE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
DURING THE EVENING AND VEERS FOCUSING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN STORMS AND WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT COULD SEE SOME
BACKBUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LAY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE
SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. BY SATURDAY
LATE EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE 850
MB FRONT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH A WAVE MOVING
THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPSLOPE ALONG THE ROCKIES WILL SEE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTI THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEW POINTS LATER IN
THE WEEK WILL BRING BACK HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW 100S BY THURSDAY.
53
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 030412
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1112 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCT TS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL KS IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SRLY LOW-
LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...SCT TS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD OVER CNTRL/SERN KS WITHIN
THIS ZONE OF CONCENTRATED LIFT. MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE RSL/SLN/CNU WHERE VCTS WILL BE UTILIZED. FRONT
TEMPORARILY LIFTS INTO NRN KS FRI PM WITH WINDS BECOMING
SRLY/GUSTY. OTHER TS SHOULD DEVELOP VCNTY OF FRONTAL ZONE/THERMAL
TROF AXIS OVER NRN/NWRN KS LATE FRI PM/EVE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL KS BY LATE FRI EVE.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
OLD STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM SWRN KS INTO
CNTRL OK EARLY THIS EVE. 40 KT S-SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEWD INTO KS FROM THE SRN HI PLAINS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT TS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF CONCENTRATED LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
MOST LIKELY TAF SITES OF OURS TO BE AFFECTED ARE RSL/SLN/CNU AND
WILL INCLUDE VCTS THERE. FRONT TEMPORARILY LIFTS NWD INTO NRN KS
FRI PM WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TONIGHT:
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THAT MOVED SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXITING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SO EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS TIME
HOWEVER THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
EAST...CONSIDERING THAT THE FORECASTED 700MB TEN DEGREE CELSIUS
ISOTHERM IS ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM ABOUT MARION TO SEDAN. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE TO THE WEST WHICH MAKE FOR A FAIRLY GOOD CAP.
FRIDAY:
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY NOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...EXPECT A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO EXTEND
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN COMPRESSIONAL WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AREAS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AFTER 20Z OR SO. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND THE MAIN THREAT. SPC
HAS PLACED CENTRAL KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
SATURDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF US. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A SMALL STRIP
ALONG THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN
THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK. WITH THAT IN MIND...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR 4TH OF
JULY PLANS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE WEATHER. AS FOR THE REST OF US AM HOPEFUL WE WILL BE
DRY. AS WITH MOST SUMMERTIME FRONTS...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND FROM ABOUT THE RED RIVER THEN CURVE UP INTO THE TROF ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND THEN BE HARD TO MOVE ANY FURTHER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL BE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
THEN DECREASE AS ONE GOES NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY. CHANCES OF STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS A LITTLE SHOT OF ENERGY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SLIM CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. MY CONFIDENCE OF ANY PERSON REPORTING MEASURABLE
RAIN FROM THIS IS UNDER 20% SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. WILL
START THE WEEK OUT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE...TEMPERATURE WISE...THEN WILL
BEGIN THE WARM UP THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
SUMMER IS BACK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. AT THE SURFACE....GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO BE IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE FLIRTING
WITH THE CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY. THE SAVING GRACE WILL BE THAT WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
BREEZE WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG A LINE THAT WILL BRING
THE STORMS OVER KCNU. WILL KEEP SOME TSRA IN THAT TAF FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP OTHER SITES
DRY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT KCNU WILL SEE
STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME VCTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 98 74 93 / 10 10 30 30
HUTCHINSON 70 98 72 91 / 10 10 30 30
NEWTON 70 96 73 91 / 20 10 30 30
ELDORADO 70 96 74 92 / 20 20 30 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 98 75 94 / 10 10 20 30
RUSSELL 69 95 67 89 / 30 20 40 30
GREAT BEND 70 96 70 90 / 20 20 40 30
SALINA 69 94 68 89 / 40 20 40 30
MCPHERSON 70 96 71 90 / 20 10 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 69 96 74 94 / 20 20 20 30
CHANUTE 68 94 73 93 / 30 30 30 30
IOLA 68 93 73 92 / 30 30 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 69 95 74 94 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 022345
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
OLD STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM SWRN KS INTO
CNTRL OK EARLY THIS EVE. 40 KT S-SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NEWD INTO KS FROM THE SRN HI PLAINS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN NW-SE ORIENTED MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEBRASKA/KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT TS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF CONCENTRATED LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
MOST LIKELY TAF SITES OF OURS TO BE AFFECTED ARE RSL/SLN/CNU AND
WILL INCLUDE VCTS THERE. FRONT TEMPORARILY LIFTS NWD INTO NRN KS
FRI PM WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TONIGHT:
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THAT MOVED SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXITING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SO EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS TIME
HOWEVER THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
EAST...CONSIDERING THAT THE FORECASTED 700MB TEN DEGREE CELSIUS
ISOTHERM IS ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM ABOUT MARION TO SEDAN. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE TO THE WEST WHICH MAKE FOR A FAIRLY GOOD CAP.
FRIDAY:
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY NOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...EXPECT A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO EXTEND
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN COMPRESSIONAL WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AREAS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AFTER 20Z OR SO. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND THE MAIN THREAT. SPC
HAS PLACED CENTRAL KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
SATURDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF US. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A SMALL STRIP
ALONG THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN
THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK. WITH THAT IN MIND...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR 4TH OF
JULY PLANS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE WEATHER. AS FOR THE REST OF US AM HOPEFUL WE WILL BE
DRY. AS WITH MOST SUMMERTIME FRONTS...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND FROM ABOUT THE RED RIVER THEN CURVE UP INTO THE TROF ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND THEN BE HARD TO MOVE ANY FURTHER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL BE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
THEN DECREASE AS ONE GOES NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY. CHANCES OF STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS A LITTLE SHOT OF ENERGY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SLIM CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. MY CONFIDENCE OF ANY PERSON REPORTING MEASURABLE
RAIN FROM THIS IS UNDER 20% SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. WILL
START THE WEEK OUT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE...TEMPERATURE WISE...THEN WILL
BEGIN THE WARM UP THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
SUMMER IS BACK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. AT THE SURFACE....GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO BE IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE FLIRTING
WITH THE CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY. THE SAVING GRACE WILL BE THAT WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
BREEZE WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG A LINE THAT WILL BRING
THE STORMS OVER KCNU. WILL KEEP SOME TSRA IN THAT TAF FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP OTHER SITES
DRY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT KCNU WILL SEE
STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME VCTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 98 74 93 / 10 10 30 30
HUTCHINSON 70 98 72 91 / 10 10 30 30
NEWTON 70 96 73 91 / 20 10 30 30
ELDORADO 70 96 74 92 / 20 10 30 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 98 75 94 / 10 10 20 30
RUSSELL 69 95 67 89 / 10 20 40 30
GREAT BEND 70 96 70 90 / 10 20 40 30
SALINA 69 94 68 89 / 20 20 40 30
MCPHERSON 70 96 71 90 / 10 10 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 69 96 74 94 / 20 20 20 30
CHANUTE 68 94 73 93 / 30 20 30 30
IOLA 68 93 73 92 / 30 20 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 69 95 74 94 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 022336
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
1225 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND HAS MOVED
LITTLE IN RECENT DAYS WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS TRANSLATED
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION. THIS REGIME HAS
ALLOWED NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN OUT WEST IN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WHILE DRIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING CINH.
MARGINAL LLJ WOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED WITH EXPECTED MCS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE STEERING 320K MIXING
RATIOS OF 7-8+ G/KG OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING PWATS
150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...STRONG SUPPORT FOR TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK WED-THU WITH VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...
536 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR TAF
VALID PERIOD. EASTWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONT RANGE
STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION..WILL ONLY MENTION CB GROUP TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL AND MONITOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EXISTS AT BOTH TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GJG
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 022325
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
625 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INSTIGATES SHOWERS/CONVECTION OVER CTRL KS AND LIFTS IT
NE. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AND CANT GURANTEE A TIME OF ARRIVAL SO
WILL CARRY CB/VCTS ATTM. CAP STRENTHENS TORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMOVE TS AND INCREASE WINDS AROUND 21Z...HOWEVER EXPECT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE ROUND OF TSRA BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
NORTH TX WITH A 5H RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN KS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AT THE 310 DEGREE K
POTENTIAL TEMP SFC AFTER 6Z AS 850MB WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DEEP MOISTURE WAS NOTED ON
THE 12Z 850MB MAP ACROSS WEST TX...WITH MAF HAVING A 16 DEG C 850MB
DEWPOINT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. MUCAPE WILL
ONLY BE 500 TO 800 J/KG...THUS THE ONLY HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS TONIGHT MAY BE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
ONCE THE STRONGER WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY
LATE MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIP END WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE CLOUD COVER. A 5H TROUGH WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NE
INTO NORTHEAST KS AND WESTERN IA. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WILL INCREASE TO
40 TO 45 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING...DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SBCAPE VALUES TO
REACH AOA 3,000 J/KG. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE SFC FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH I CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE BACKED. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WITH MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
GARGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BE
PRESENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE NOSE
OF THE JET FOCUSED INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
AIRMASS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING POOLING
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. COULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SQUALL LINE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
DURING THE EVENING AND VEERS FOCUSING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN STORMS AND WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT COULD SEE SOME
BACKBUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LAY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE
SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. BY SATURDAY
LATE EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE 850
MB FRONT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH A WAVE MOVING
THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPSLOPE ALONG THE ROCKIES WILL SEE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTI THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEW POINTS LATER IN
THE WEEK WILL BRING BACK HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW 100S BY THURSDAY.
53
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 022034
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
NORTH TX WITH A 5H RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS EASTERN KS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AT THE 310 DEGREE K
POTENTIAL TEMP SFC AFTER 6Z AS 850MB WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DEEP MOISTURE WAS NOTED ON
THE 12Z 850MB MAP ACROSS WEST TX...WITH MAF HAVING A 16 DEG C 850MB
DEWPOINT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. MUCAPE WILL
ONLY BE 500 TO 800 J/KG...THUS THE ONLY HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS TONIGHT MAY BE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
ONCE THE STRONGER WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY
LATE MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIP END WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING IN
THE CLOUD COVER. A 5H TROUGH WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NE
INTO NORTHEAST KS AND WESTERN IA. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB WILL INCREASE TO
40 TO 45 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING...DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE SBCAPE VALUES TO
REACH AOA 3,000 J/KG. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE SFC FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH I CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE BACKED. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WITH MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.
GARGAN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BE
PRESENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE NOSE
OF THE JET FOCUSED INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
AIRMASS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE MOISTURE INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING POOLING
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. COULD SEE AN MCS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS SQUALL LINE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
DURING THE EVENING AND VEERS FOCUSING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN STORMS AND WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT COULD SEE SOME
BACKBUILDING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
BY SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LAY JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE
SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. BY SATURDAY
LATE EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE 850
MB FRONT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH A WAVE MOVING
THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPSLOPE ALONG THE ROCKIES WILL SEE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTI THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING DEW POINTS LATER IN
THE WEEK WILL BRING BACK HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW 100S BY THURSDAY.
53
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE 24 HOURS. WAA WILL CAUSE BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 9 KFT
TO 14 KFT RANGE. MHK MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY DEVELOP AFTER 6Z ACROSS
EASTERN KS...SO THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 8 KFT WITH SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 15Z FRI.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 022033
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TONIGHT:
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THAT MOVED SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXITING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SO EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PART OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN OCCUR TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS TIME
HOWEVER THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
EAST...CONSIDERING THAT THE FORECASTED 700MB TEN DEGREE CELSIUS
ISOTHERM IS ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM ABOUT MARION TO SEDAN. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE TO THE WEST WHICH MAKE FOR A FAIRLY GOOD CAP.
FRIDAY:
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY NOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...EXPECT A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO EXTEND
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN COMPRESSIONAL WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AREAS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AFTER 20Z OR SO. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND THE MAIN THREAT. SPC
HAS PLACED CENTRAL KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK WHICH CERTAINLY LOOKS
REASONABLE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
SATURDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...THIS SHOULD KEEP THE MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF US. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A SMALL STRIP
ALONG THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN
THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK. WITH THAT IN MIND...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR 4TH OF
JULY PLANS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE WEATHER. AS FOR THE REST OF US AM HOPEFUL WE WILL BE
DRY. AS WITH MOST SUMMERTIME FRONTS...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
EXTEND FROM ABOUT THE RED RIVER THEN CURVE UP INTO THE TROF ALONG
THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND THEN BE HARD TO MOVE ANY FURTHER.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHER POPS WILL BE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
THEN DECREASE AS ONE GOES NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY. CHANCES OF STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS A LITTLE SHOT OF ENERGY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SLIM CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. MY CONFIDENCE OF ANY PERSON REPORTING MEASURABLE
RAIN FROM THIS IS UNDER 20% SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. WILL
START THE WEEK OUT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE...TEMPERATURE WISE...THEN WILL
BEGIN THE WARM UP THAT WE WILL SEE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
SUMMER IS BACK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. AT THE SURFACE....GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO BE IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE FLIRTING
WITH THE CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY. THE SAVING GRACE WILL BE THAT WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
BREEZE WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG A LINE THAT WILL BRING
THE STORMS OVER KCNU. WILL KEEP SOME TSRA IN THAT TAF FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP OTHER SITES
DRY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT KCNU WILL SEE
STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME VCTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 98 74 93 / 10 10 30 30
HUTCHINSON 70 98 72 91 / 10 10 30 30
NEWTON 70 96 73 91 / 20 10 30 30
ELDORADO 70 96 74 92 / 20 10 30 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 98 75 94 / 10 10 20 30
RUSSELL 69 95 67 89 / 10 20 40 30
GREAT BEND 70 96 70 90 / 10 20 40 30
SALINA 69 94 68 89 / 20 20 40 30
MCPHERSON 70 96 71 90 / 10 10 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 69 96 74 94 / 20 20 20 30
CHANUTE 68 94 73 93 / 30 20 30 30
IOLA 68 93 73 92 / 30 20 30 30
PARSONS-KPPF 69 95 74 94 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ELDER/SCHRECK
000
FXUS63 KDDC 022013
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY.
A WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 700MB TEMPS WARM TO 12 TO 14C WITH ANY MCS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR FA. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING NEAR DODGE CITY
AS A WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARD DODGE CITY COULD HELP REMOVE THE CAP.
ALSO WILL KEEP A LOW POP NORTH FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT NEAR AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH A MILD NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR FRIDAY TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS
INCREASING. THE WRF HAS LOTS OF CONVECTION FORECAST WHILE THE GFS
HAS NONE. VERY WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
HOWEVER WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE POP GOING BY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 29C. HIGHS ON FRIDAY COULD BE NEAR 100 WITH COOLER MID 90S
NORTH.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE UPPER RIDGE AND LOWERS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. NOT ALOT OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FORECAST BUT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AS A COLD FRONT ALSO
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS NORTH TO 50
PERCENT WITH 20 AND 30 POPS SOUTH. LOWS LOOK TO BE MILD WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMING BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FOR 4TH OF JULY ON SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THE NAM HAS THE FRONT A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS AND AM
THINKING IT WILL BE MORE CORRECT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCING
THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW. A VORT MAX ALSO LINGERS IN THE AREA SO WILL BUMP POPS
BACK UP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK REASONABLE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MID 90S ARE EXPECTED IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
DAYS 3-7...
IT LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLY SAT WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO OKLAHOMA SUNDAY, BUT EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT, COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS ADVERTISES ONE MORE MCS
TO SLIDE THROUGH KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THE OTHER MODELS
AREN`T AS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP, THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH HAVING SOME
POPS IN. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN WE`VE SEEN WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO REBOUND MONDAY AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AND INTO WEEK TWO AS WELL. WHILE TOTALLY DRY WEATHER
ISN`T A GIVEN UNDER A BIG RIDGE IN THE PLAINS, HOT WEATHER WITH
BELOW CLIMO POPS IS A GOOD BET. WITH A 596DM RIDGE CENTERED OVER
KANSAS AND GOOD S-SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE ADVERTISED BY ALL MODELS,
AM THINKING THAT THE FIRST 100+ DEGREE IN DODGE CITY IS LIKELY LATE
NEXT WEEK...PROBABLY THU BUT ALMOST CERTAINLY FRI. -WRIGHT
&&
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM AT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAFS. -WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 69 100 68 88 / 10 0 30 30
GCK 68 99 65 88 / 10 10 30 30
EHA 71 100 65 88 / 10 0 30 30
LBL 69 101 66 90 / 10 0 30 30
HYS 68 95 66 86 / 10 30 50 50
P28 71 101 72 94 / 20 10 20 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN06/34
000
FXUS63 KGLD 021825
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1225 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
1225 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND HAS MOVED
LITTLE IN RECENT DAYS WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS TRANSLATED
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION. THIS REGIME HAS
ALLOWED NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN OUT WEST IN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WHILE DRIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING CINH.
MARGINAL LLJ WOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED WITH EXPECTED MCS.
THE TROPICAL PLUME AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE STEERING 320K MIXING
RATIOS OF 7-8+ G/KG OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAINTAINING PWATS
150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...STRONG SUPPORT FOR TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETURNS TO THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK WED-THU WITH VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...
1120 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT EASTWARD EXTENT OF STORMS IS
QUESTIONABLE. WILL REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TAF...BUT REVISIT
WITH LATER ISSUANCE AS COVERAGE/LOCATION OF STORMS BECOMES MORE
APPARENT.
024
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 021744
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18 UTC AVIATION AND FIRST PERIOD ZONES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A THERMAL GRADIENT WAS NOTED AT 700MB EXTENDING FROM N0RTHWEST KS INTO
NORTHEAST OK. WAA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY KEEP ISOLD SHOWERS
AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
I WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO KEEP ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO KEEP CLOUD COVER
GOING AND REDUCE HIGH TEMPS A BIT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE 24 HOURS. WAA WILL CAUSE BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES. CIELINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 9 KFT
TO 14 KFT RANGE. MHK MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY DEVELOP AFTER 6Z ACROSS
EASTERN KS...SO THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 8 KFT WITH SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 15Z FRI.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12 UTC AVIATION.
DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
TAF SITES BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. ANTICIPATE BKN VFR CEILINGS
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 07Z AT TAF SITES. BLAIR
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...DECAYING MCS WAS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE TOP CWA AT 07Z. A SFC LOW WAS OVER SE COLORADO WITH
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SE FROM THE LOW ACROSS SW KS/NW OK TO THE
OK/TX BORDER.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY WITH THE WESTERN H5
RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW WEAKENS
FROM A CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH ON THURS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF ITS FEEDBACK ISSUES SO HAVE
RELIED ON THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF FOR THE FORECAST TODAY.
TODAY...REMNANT MCS WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IT
MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE TOP/LWC AREA AS IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IR SAT CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW POP ANYWAY TO COVER THIS MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY GO PARTLY SUNNY AS CLOUDS FROM THE CURRENT MCS
DISSIPATE. WARM ADVECTION INVOF THE SFC LOW WILL CAP THE ATMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOME
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TODAY WENT IN BETWEEN THE MAV/MET FOR HIGHS.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHWV MOVES AROUND THE EDGE OF THE H5 RIDGE WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASING LLVL JET THAT WILL BRING IN MORE
MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE H85 THERMAL GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE ISNT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS FREEZING LEVEL IS 13K AND BEST BULK SHEAR
IS AROUND 25-30.
FRIDAY...FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHWV MOVES ACROSS NE KANSAS. STRONG H85 WAA
WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA
BUT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE THERMAL RIDGE THERE COULD BE A SCATTERED
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LEFT A LOW POP IN THERE. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT THE COLORADO SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO SW KANSAS WHILE A
BOUNDARY EXTENDS E/NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE KS/MO/NE BORDERS. A
SW LLJ INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS ENHANCING LIFT AND AIDING THE FOCUS
FOR TSRA FORMATION INVOF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE ON FRIDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER SERIES OF SHWVS PASSING THROUGH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TOP CWA LEAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE
MORNING. WITH ANOTHER WAVE PASSING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY EVENING MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWA.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO SUN/MON AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING A SHWV THROUGH SE KANSAS PROVIDING SOME
FOCUS FOR SCT TSRA.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
GARGAN
000
FXUS63 KICT 021733
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG A LINE THAT WILL BRING
THE STORMS OVER KCNU. WILL KEEP SOME TSRA IN THAT TAF FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP OTHER SITES
DRY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THAT KCNU WILL SEE
STORMS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME VCTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES ON FRIDAY MORNING.
SCHRECK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA OF TSRA WILL AFFECT THE
KICT AND KCNU TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONT EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WILL
INCLUDE THIS IN THE KCNU TAF SITE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 15Z/THU.
COULD SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF SITE SOMETIME AFTER 06Z/FRI AS IT
AGAIN DIVES SOUTHEAST. SO WILL INCLUDE A VCTS IN THIS TAF SITE FOR
NOW.
KETCHAM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO CENTER ON TSRA CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TODAY:
TSRA CLUSTER LARGER THAN LAST NIGHT`S CONTINUED TO TRACK SE20KT FROM NW
TOWARD CNTRL KS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION BEING SUSTAINED BY FAIRLY
TIGHT 850-MB THETA-E GRADIENT SITUATED FROM NC-CNTRL KS ALONG NOSE OF
MODEST SWLY 30KT LLJ. HOWEVER...WITH WELL-DEFINED MUCAPE AXIS OF ~1,500
TO 2,000J/KG SITUATED OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & I-135 CONVECTION WILL
DIVE IN MORE SLY MANNER THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL & MOST OF SC KS WHERE STRONG TSRA
APPEARING MORE LIKELY. THE AFTER-EFFECTS OF THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION TO
POSE PROBLEMS FOR REMAINDER OF 1ST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM TEMPERATURE
STANDPOINT. INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DICTATES LOWERING MAXES OVER WRN
HALF OF CWA INTO LWR 90S.
TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT:
OVERALL FORECAST STRATEGY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING TSRA IN FORECAST FOR
EACH PERIOD. MEAN MID-UPR TROF SITUATED JUST OFF PACIFIC NW COAST WILL
EJECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES E/SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN MARKED DEAMPLIFICATION OF MID-UPR PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED
MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS SINCE LAST WEEKEND. AS SUCH TSRA CHANCES WOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR BEST CHANCES
FOR STRONG (& POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SVR) TSRA WILL OCCUR FRI & SAT NIGHTS
AS A COUPLE OF ESPECIALLY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUNCH SE TOWARD
CNTRL KS. GFS APPEARS A BIT STRONG WITH BOTH FEATURES BUT REGARDLESS...
WITH ECMWF DEPICTING BOTH TO BE FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVES VENTURING SE
TOWARD KICT COUNTRY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SE TOWARD CNTRL KS
THAT`LL FIND SOME HIGH OCTANE FUEL WITH WHICH TO INTERACT. HAVE ASSIGNED
~40% POPS TO CNTRL KS FRI NIGHT WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO THE FRONT & TO
SC & SE KS SAT NIGHT AS THE 2ND & STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUNCHING
SE SHOULD KICK THE COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE 1-3KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION. THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME IS DRAWING
INCREASING ATTENTION.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK
E-SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO THURS AM WITH THE ASSOCIATED WAVE...AROUND
THE EDGE OF THE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD AFFECT OUR TAF SITES...WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL AT RSL/SLN
WHERE VCTS WILL BE CARRIED IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 91 71 98 74 / 10 10 10 30
HUTCHINSON 91 70 97 72 / 10 20 10 30
NEWTON 89 70 96 73 / 20 20 10 30
ELDORADO 89 70 96 74 / 10 20 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 91 71 98 75 / 10 10 0 20
RUSSELL 91 69 95 67 / 20 30 10 40
GREAT BEND 93 70 97 70 / 20 20 10 40
SALINA 89 69 93 68 / 20 30 20 40
MCPHERSON 90 70 96 71 / 20 20 10 40
COFFEYVILLE 83 69 95 74 / 30 20 10 20
CHANUTE 81 68 93 73 / 30 30 20 30
IOLA 81 68 92 73 / 30 30 20 30
PARSONS-KPPF 81 69 95 74 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 021720
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
218 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. A RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WERE BEING
PICKED UP BY RADAR OVER THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND THEN PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SAT AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE SAT NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS.
SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW INTO EASTERN COLORADO EVERY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SAT. FOR TODAY BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH THE NAM HAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS FIRING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVING EAST. THE NAM TAKES THE WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY WILL TAKE BOTH SCENARIOS
INTO ACCOUNT. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER KEPT
POPS FOR OVERNIGHT IN CASE STORMS LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL.
850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 TODAY/FRIDAY BUT COOL DOWN TO THE LOWER
20S ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY/FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR 90
WITH MID 80S ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1120 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT EASTWARD EXTENT OF STORMS IS
QUESTIONABLE. WILL REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TAF...BUT REVISIT
WITH LATER ISSUANCE AS COVERAGE/LOCATION OF STORMS BECOMES MORE
APPARENT.
024
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 021149
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
218 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. A RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WERE BEING
PICKED UP BY RADAR OVER THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND THEN PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SAT AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE SAT NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS.
SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW INTO EASTERN COLORADO EVERY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SAT. FOR TODAY BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH THE NAM HAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS FIRING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVING EAST. THE NAM TAKES THE WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY WILL TAKE BOTH SCENARIOS
INTO ACCOUNT. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER KEPT
POPS FOR OVERNIGHT IN CASE STORMS LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL.
850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 TODAY/FRIDAY BUT COOL DOWN TO THE LOWER
20S ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY/FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR 90
WITH MID 80S ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
549 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH CB
REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR CONDITONS WILL
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES.
FS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 021146
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
646 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
TAF SITES BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. ANTICIPATE BKN VFR CEILINGS
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 07Z AT TAF SITES. BLAIR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...DECAYING MCS WAS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE TOP CWA AT 07Z. A SFC LOW WAS OVER SE COLORADO WITH
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SE FROM THE LOW ACROSS SW KS/NW OK TO THE
OK/TX BORDER.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY WITH THE WESTERN H5
RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW WEAKENS
FROM A CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH ON THURS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF ITS FEEDBACK ISSUES SO HAVE
RELIED ON THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF FOR THE FORECAST TODAY.
TODAY...REMNANT MCS WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IT
MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE TOP/LWC AREA AS IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IR SAT CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW POP ANYWAY TO COVER THIS MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY GO PARTLY SUNNY AS CLOUDS FROM THE CURRENT MCS
DISSIPATE. WARM ADVECTION INVOF THE SFC LOW WILL CAP THE ATMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOME
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TODAY WENT IN BETWEEN THE MAV/MET FOR HIGHS.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHWV MOVES AROUND THE EDGE OF THE H5 RIDGE WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASING LLVL JET THAT WILL BRING IN MORE
MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE H85 THERMAL GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE ISNT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS FREEZING LEVEL IS 13K AND BEST BULK SHEAR
IS AROUND 25-30.
FRIDAY...FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHWV MOVES ACROSS NE KANSAS. STRONG H85 WAA
WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA
BUT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE THERMAL RIDGE THERE COULD BE A SCATTERED
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LEFT A LOW POP IN THERE. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT THE COLORADO SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO SW KANSAS WHILE A
BOUNDARY EXTENDS E/NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE KS/MO/NE BORDERS. A
SW LLJ INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS ENHANCING LIFT AND AIDING THE FOCUS
FOR TSRA FORMATION INVOF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE ON FRIDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER SERIES OF SHWVS PASSING THROUGH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TOP CWA LEAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE
MORNING. WITH ANOTHER WAVE PASSING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY EVENING MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWA.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO SUN/MON AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING A SHWV THROUGH SE KANSAS PROVIDING SOME
FOCUS FOR SCT TSRA.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 021142
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
642 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA OF TSRA WILL AFFECT THE
KICT AND KCNU TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FRONT EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS...WILL
INCLUDE THIS IN THE KCNU TAF SITE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 15Z/THU.
COULD SEE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF SITE SOMETIME AFTER 06Z/FRI AS IT
AGAIN DIVES SOUTHEAST. SO WILL INCLUDE A VCTS IN THIS TAF SITE FOR
NOW.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO CENTER ON TSRA CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TODAY:
TSRA CLUSTER LARGER THAN LAST NIGHT`S CONTINUED TO TRACK SE20KT FROM NW
TOWARD CNTRL KS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION BEING SUSTAINED BY FAIRLY
TIGHT 850-MB THETA-E GRADIENT SITUATED FROM NC-CNTRL KS ALONG NOSE OF
MODEST SWLY 30KT LLJ. HOWEVER...WITH WELL-DEFINED MUCAPE AXIS OF ~1,500
TO 2,000J/KG SITUATED OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & I-135 CONVECTION WILL
DIVE IN MORE SLY MANNER THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL & MOST OF SC KS WHERE STRONG TSRA
APPEARING MORE LIKELY. THE AFTER-EFFECTS OF THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION TO
POSE PROBLEMS FOR REMAINDER OF 1ST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM TEMPERATURE
STANDPOINT. INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DICTATES LOWERING MAXES OVER WRN
HALF OF CWA INTO LWR 90S.
TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT:
OVERALL FORECAST STRATEGY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING TSRA IN FORECAST FOR
EACH PERIOD. MEAN MID-UPR TROF SITUATED JUST OFF PACIFIC NW COAST WILL
EJECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES E/SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN MARKED DEAMPLIFICATION OF MID-UPR PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED
MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS SINCE LAST WEEKEND. AS SUCH TSRA CHANCES WOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR BEST CHANCES
FOR STRONG (& POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SVR) TSRA WILL OCCUR FRI & SAT NIGHTS
AS A COUPLE OF ESPECIALLY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUNCH SE TOWARD
CNTRL KS. GFS APPEARS A BIT STRONG WITH BOTH FEATURES BUT REGARDLESS...
WITH ECMWF DEPICTING BOTH TO BE FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVES VENTURING SE
TOWARD KICT COUNTRY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SE TOWARD CNTRL KS
THAT`LL FIND SOME HIGH OCTANE FUEL WITH WHICH TO INTERACT. HAVE ASSIGNED
~40% POPS TO CNTRL KS FRI NIGHT WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO THE FRONT & TO
SC & SE KS SAT NIGHT AS THE 2ND & STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUNCHING
SE SHOULD KICK THE COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE 1-3KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION. THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME IS DRAWING
INCREASING ATTENTION.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK
E-SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO THURS AM WITH THE ASSOCIATED WAVE...AROUND
THE EDGE OF THE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD AFFECT OUR TAF SITES...WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL AT RSL/SLN
WHERE VCTS WILL BE CARRIED IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 91 71 98 74 / 40 10 10 30
HUTCHINSON 91 70 97 72 / 50 20 10 30
NEWTON 89 70 96 73 / 50 20 10 30
ELDORADO 89 70 96 74 / 40 20 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 91 71 98 75 / 40 10 0 20
RUSSELL 91 69 95 67 / 50 30 10 40
GREAT BEND 93 70 97 70 / 50 20 10 40
SALINA 89 69 93 68 / 60 30 20 40
MCPHERSON 90 70 96 71 / 50 20 10 40
COFFEYVILLE 88 69 95 74 / 30 20 10 20
CHANUTE 87 68 93 73 / 30 30 20 30
IOLA 86 68 92 73 / 40 30 20 30
PARSONS-KPPF 88 69 95 74 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 020844
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...DECAYING MCS WAS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE TOP CWA AT 07Z. A SFC LOW WAS OVER SE COLORADO WITH
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SE FROM THE LOW ACROSS SW KS/NW OK TO THE
OK/TX BORDER.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TODAY WITH THE WESTERN H5
RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW WEAKENS
FROM A CLOSED LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH ON THURS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF ITS FEEDBACK ISSUES SO HAVE
RELIED ON THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF FOR THE FORECAST TODAY.
TODAY...REMNANT MCS WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IT
MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY EAST TO THE TOP/LWC AREA AS IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IR SAT CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW POP ANYWAY TO COVER THIS MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY GO PARTLY SUNNY AS CLOUDS FROM THE CURRENT MCS
DISSIPATE. WARM ADVECTION INVOF THE SFC LOW WILL CAP THE ATMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH SOME
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER TODAY WENT IN BETWEEN THE MAV/MET FOR HIGHS.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER SHWV MOVES AROUND THE EDGE OF THE H5 RIDGE WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASING LLVL JET THAT WILL BRING IN MORE
MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE H85 THERMAL GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE ISNT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS FREEZING LEVEL IS 13K AND BEST BULK SHEAR
IS AROUND 25-30.
FRIDAY...FLATTENING OF THE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHWV MOVES ACROSS NE KANSAS. STRONG H85 WAA
WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA
BUT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE THERMAL RIDGE THERE COULD BE A SCATTERED
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE LEFT A LOW POP IN THERE. ON FRIDAY
NIGHT THE COLORADO SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO SW KANSAS WHILE A
BOUNDARY EXTENDS E/NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE KS/MO/NE BORDERS. A
SW LLJ INCREASES TO 40-45 KTS ENHANCING LIFT AND AIDING THE FOCUS
FOR TSRA FORMATION INVOF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE ON FRIDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
SATURDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER SERIES OF SHWVS PASSING THROUGH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE TOP CWA LEAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE
MORNING. WITH ANOTHER WAVE PASSING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY EVENING MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWA.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO SUN/MON AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING A SHWV THROUGH SE KANSAS PROVIDING SOME
FOCUS FOR SCT TSRA.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION STILL OUT IN NW KS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGESTING MOST
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO WEST OF OUR AREA. MAY GET SOME SHRA/TSRA
CLIP MHK AND WILL LEAVE AS VCTS IN TAF FOR NOW BUT REMOVE VCTS AND
LEAVE ONLY CB FOR TOP/FOE. WINDS BECOME SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SALLY
000
FXUS63 KICT 020843
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO CENTER ON TSRA CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TODAY:
TSRA CLUSTER LARGER THAN LAST NIGHT`S CONTINUED TO TRACK SE20KT FROM NW
TOWARD CNTRL KS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION BEING SUSTAINED BY FAIRLY
TIGHT 850-MB THETA-E GRADIENT SITUATED FROM NC-CNTRL KS ALONG NOSE OF
MODEST SWLY 30KT LLJ. HOWEVER...WITH WELL-DEFINED MUCAPE AXIS OF ~1,500
TO 2,000J/KG SITUATED OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & I-135 CONVECTION WILL
DIVE IN MORE SLY MANNER THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL & MOST OF SC KS WHERE STRONG TSRA
APPEARING MORE LIKELY. THE AFTER-EFFECTS OF THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION TO
POSE PROBLEMS FOR REMAINDER OF 1ST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM TEMPERATURE
STANDPOINT. INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DICTATES LOWERING MAXES OVER WRN
HALF OF CWA INTO LWR 90S.
TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT:
OVERALL FORECAST STRATEGY REMAINS INTACT...KEEPING TSRA IN FORECAST FOR
EACH PERIOD. MEAN MID-UPR TROF SITUATED JUST OFF PACIFIC NW COAST WILL
EJECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES E/SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN MARKED DEAMPLIFICATION OF MID-UPR PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED
MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS SINCE LAST WEEKEND. AS SUCH TSRA CHANCES WOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR BEST CHANCES
FOR STRONG (& POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SVR) TSRA WILL OCCUR FRI & SAT NIGHTS
AS A COUPLE OF ESPECIALLY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUNCH SE TOWARD
CNTRL KS. GFS APPEARS A BIT STRONG WITH BOTH FEATURES BUT REGARDLESS...
WITH ECMWF DEPICTING BOTH TO BE FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVES VENTURING SE
TOWARD KICT COUNTRY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH SE TOWARD CNTRL KS
THAT`LL FIND SOME HIGH OCTANE FUEL WITH WHICH TO INTERACT. HAVE ASSIGNED
~40% POPS TO CNTRL KS FRI NIGHT WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSER TO THE FRONT & TO
SC & SE KS SAT NIGHT AS THE 2ND & STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUNCHING
SE SHOULD KICK THE COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE 1-3KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION. THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME IS DRAWING
INCREASING ATTENTION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK
E-SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO THURS AM WITH THE ASSOCIATED WAVE...AROUND
THE EDGE OF THE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD AFFECT OUR TAF SITES...WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL AT RSL/SLN
WHERE VCTS WILL BE CARRIED IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 91 71 98 74 / 40 10 10 30
HUTCHINSON 91 70 97 72 / 50 20 10 30
NEWTON 89 70 96 73 / 50 20 10 30
ELDORADO 89 70 96 74 / 40 20 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 91 71 98 75 / 40 10 0 20
RUSSELL 91 69 95 67 / 50 30 10 40
GREAT BEND 93 70 97 70 / 50 20 10 40
SALINA 89 69 93 68 / 60 30 20 40
MCPHERSON 90 70 96 71 / 50 20 10 40
COFFEYVILLE 88 69 95 74 / 30 20 10 20
CHANUTE 87 68 93 73 / 30 30 20 30
IOLA 86 68 92 73 / 40 30 20 30
PARSONS-KPPF 88 69 95 74 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 020824
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
218 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
THE 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. A RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WERE BEING
PICKED UP BY RADAR OVER THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND THEN PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SAT AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE SAT NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS.
SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW INTO EASTERN COLORADO EVERY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SAT. FOR TODAY BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH THE NAM HAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS FIRING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVING EAST. THE NAM TAKES THE WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY WILL TAKE BOTH SCENARIOS
INTO ACCOUNT. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER KEPT
POPS FOR OVERNIGHT IN CASE STORMS LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL.
850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 TODAY/FRIDAY BUT COOL DOWN TO THE LOWER
20S ON SATURDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY/FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR 90
WITH MID 80S ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT.
FS
&&
.AVIATION...
1055 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAF...ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
KMCK TERMINAL BY THE START OF THE TAF CYCLE. ANTICIPATE TSRA
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BEFORE TRANSITION TO VCSH WHICH SHOULD END BY
AROUND 12Z. KGLD WILL SEE VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WOULD INDICATE IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH CB REDEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW EVENING WILL PRECLUDE
INCLUSION FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
FOLTZ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 020806
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS IS INFLUENCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PERSISTING
ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WHILE A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUING TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRIDAY AND RESULTING IN MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS OF
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. MUCH OF THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS IN FOR TONIGHT IN THIS GENERAL
AREA.
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SOMEWHAT LATE FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MENTIONED EARLIER. THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
S/WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP DISLODGE THE
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO AND PUSH IT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ALONG WITH A WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS AT H85 AROUND TO JUST ABOVE 10C. AS A RESULT,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY ON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAK ~70KT JET STREAK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THIS
GENERAL VICINITY FRIDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS, WILL STAY WITH LOW
END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH PRIMARILY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THESE POPS SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AND NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM TODAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S(C) ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO NEAR 30C ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. FOR TODAY, EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S(F) WITH 100F NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGE IN THE MID 20S(C) ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH LOWER 70S(F) POSSIBLE IN OUR
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FRIDAY AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THEY MAY BE DOWN JUST A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
EXTREME NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS AND POSSIBLY SWITCH THEM OUT OF THE
NORTH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO
REACH INTO THE 90S(F) AGAIN WITH AROUND 100F POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP MAINLY INTO THE 60S(F) AGAIN AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOWER 70S(F)
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLAN
TO MAKE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
DAYS 3-7...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ROLLING OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS INDICATE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
FROM A WEAK WAVE MOVING BY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT LATE SATURDAY THINK THAT THIS SETUP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME EVENING AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE BEST QPF WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW ONLY MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE CHANCE POPS WE HAVE GOING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED BACK POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
WE SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DURING THE DAY. POPS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THIS
SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY SHOULD REINFORCE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PUSH IT AND THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA WITH DECREASING POPS FARTHER NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL IMPACT HAYS FOR A FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BEFORE 12Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE
COLORADO EASTERN SLOPES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 98 68 100 68 / 10 10 0 30
GCK 98 67 99 65 / 10 10 0 30
EHA 100 68 100 65 / 10 10 0 30
LBL 100 68 101 66 / 10 10 0 30
HYS 97 67 95 65 / 20 20 20 30
P28 98 70 100 72 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN32/02/02
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