000
FXUS63 KJKL 060018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
818 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE KY/TN BORDER WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES SHOWING UP IN THE COOLER AIR. LOW STRATUS HAS
SHROUDED THE RIDGETOPS AND AS THE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND THE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO FALL...EXPECT THE LOW STRATUS TO BECOE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG. AS EVEN THE SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES BUT RATHER COVER WITH
NOWCASTS. ALL LIGHT RAIN SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND ALL THAT WILL BE
LEFT WILL BE THE FOG. CLEARING ALREADY TO THE OHIO RIVER AND EXPECT
THAT PROGRESSION TO ACCELERATE AS THE PARENT SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE MTNS AND THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST WITH IT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PRESENT AT UPPER LEVELS...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE. AT THE SFC...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THIS WAVE OVER CENTRAL KY.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE MUCH MORE
STABLE.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BOUNDARY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS A COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO EXIT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID OR HIGH CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT...PLAN TO GO WITH A PREFIRST PERIOD IN THE ZFP TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER POPS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY HWY 80 CORRIDOR THAT HAVE
RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY AND PROGGED TO BE HIGHER THERE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SW CWA...SO ANY STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR
THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL ABOUT 0Z FROM
NEAR JKL SOUTH...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY EXITS AND THE TROUGH PASSES. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND
THE FRONT EXITS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR. A RATHER WEAK PRESS GRADIENT AND RECENT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PROBABLY DEVELOPING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND COULD BECOME
DENSE...AT LEAST AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT WAS NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS
WILL BE ENTIRELY FOG OR PERHAPS LOW STRATUS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT. IF CLEARING DOES MATERIALIZE...A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...LIFTING INTO SOME CU.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BY WARMER AIR
BETWEEN 750 MB AND 600 MB BOTH ON MON AND TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL FAIR WX CU IS EXPECTED.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A BIT DRIER THAN THE CURRENT
ONE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY LATE ON
MON AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS
BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHTS WITH NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS EXPERIENCING
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WITH RIDGETOPS/MORE OPEN TERRAIN
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS TO START THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
REINFORCING/AMPLIFYING AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOME MODEL RUNS BRING PRECIP CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOMETHING GETTING
INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL PUT THE POP AT LESS THAN
20 PERCENT...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A DRY FORECAST. LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SUPPRESSES THE
RIDGE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE USED A BROAD PERIOD OF 20 PERCENT
POP. IT IS LIKELY THAT POPS WILL BE INCREASED FOR SOME POINT IN TIME
AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...WITH A POSSIBLY FOR TIGHTENING OF THE
TIMING.

FOR TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
RETURNING...WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS TO FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...THOUGH RIDGETOP LOCATIONS SUCH AS JKL HAVE BEEN DOWN INTO
THE VLIFR RANGE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG/LOW STRATUS. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING AS A SFC LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH DEPART TO THE EAST. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 2Z SHOULD
LEAD TO FOG AND OR STRATUS BUILD DOWN. THIS COULD BECOME DENSE
BETWEEN 5Z AND 12Z. THIS FOG SHOULD THEN LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z
WITH SOME SHALLOW CU DEVELOPING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP/DUSTY
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 052302
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...

ESE MOVG SFC LOW/CDFNT JUST PASSING TO THE SE OF BWG ATTM...WINDS AT
HOP/BWG HAVE SHIFTED TO WNW. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CLUSTERS...
FEEDING INTO A MAIN LINE EXTENDING ACRS SCNTRL KY...WITH STORMS
PROGRESSING TO THE SE. WILL HAVE A SUB FIRST PERIOD AND KEEP TSTMS
IN THE FCST INTO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE ACRS SCNTRL PARTS THEN DROP
POPS BY 00Z.

UPR LEVEL NW FLO PATTERN CONTS THRU THIS PERIOD. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE ERN TN VLY TNGT AND CONTINUE SEWD. CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH
PRES...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING EWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY...EXPECTED TO
DROP SEWD INTO OUR FA BY LATE MON. TIL THEN...BASED ON LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WIND PROGS AND SUPPORTED BY STLT IMAGERY...LOW CLDS WILL
LINGER MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN AREAS THAT DO CLR
OUT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLDY SKIES WITH FOG DEVELOPING.

LOW LEVELS SHUD BEGIN A DRYING OUT PROCESS MON WITH CLRG FROM N TO
S. GFS MOS TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR SDF...ARE COOLER AND WITH NLY
FLOW...PREFERRED FOR MON. CURRENT LOW-MID 80S IN THE FCST LOOKS
FINE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

MODELS CONTINUE PUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MAJOR SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE OVERALL PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF...RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ARE INCONSISTENT
IN BOTH PLACEMENT OF RH AND VORTICITY...WITH THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION HINTED AT DURING VARIOUS TIME FRAMES AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL.  GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE
SIGNATURES HAVE OPTED FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF LOW 20 POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH NO PRECIP BEFORE THEN.

DESPITE THE PAST FEW COOL DAYS...IT IS JULY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE TO REBOUND EVENTUALLY.  THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO DO JUST THAT
WITH 50H RIDGE TO THE WEST SPREADING OUT TO ALLOW FOR SFC-500
THICKNESS INCREASES TO NEAR 580 BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WITH LIKELY
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO LIMIT THE MERCURY RISE SOMEWHAT.  WITH LIMITED
RH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNSHINE WILL
HELP TO HEAT UP BOTH MAX AND MIN READINGS 1-3 DEGREES EACH
DAY...TOPPING OUT IN A LOW 70 TO LOW 90 RANGE BY END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AT 23Z WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SO THE MOSTLY MVFR STRATO-CU
FIELD THAT COVERS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH. LEX AND
SDF MAY BE OUT OF THE CLOUDS BY 08 OR 09Z BUT IF SO PATCHY FOG WILL
BE AN ISSUE. I EXPECT BWG TO REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH 15Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....JBS
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 052217
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
617 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PRESENT AT UPPER LEVELS...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE. AT THE SFC...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THIS WAVE OVER CENTRAL KY.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE MUCH MORE
STABLE.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BOUNDARY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS A COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO EXIT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID OR HIGH CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT...PLAN TO GO WITH A PREFIRST PERIOD IN THE ZFP TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER POPS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY HWY 80 CORRIDOR THAT HAVE
RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY AND PROGGED TO BE HIGHER THERE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SW CWA...SO ANY STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR
THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL ABOUT 0Z FROM
NEAR JKL SOUTH...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY EXITS AND THE TROUGH PASSES. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND
THE FRONT EXITS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR. A RATHER WEAK PRESS GRADIENT AND RECENT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PROBABLY DEVELOPING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND COULD BECOME
DENSE...AT LEAST AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT WAS NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS
WILL BE ENTIRELY FOG OR PERHAPS LOW STRATUS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT. IF CLEARING DOES MATERIALIZE...A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...LIFTING INTO SOME CU.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BY WARMER AIR
BETWEEN 750 MB AND 600 MB BOTH ON MON AND TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL FAIR WX CU IS EXPECTED.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A BIT DRIER THAN THE CURRENT
ONE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY LATE ON
MON AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS
BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHTS WITH NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS EXPERIENCING
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WITH RIDGETOPS/MORE OPEN TERRAIN
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS TO START THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
REINFORCING/AMPLIFYING AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOME MODEL RUNS BRING PRECIP CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOMETHING GETTING
INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL PUT THE POP AT LESS THAN
20 PERCENT...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A DRY FORECAST. LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SUPPRESSES THE
RIDGE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE USED A BROAD PERIOD OF 20 PERCENT
POP. IT IS LIKELY THAT POPS WILL BE INCREASED FOR SOME POINT IN TIME
AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...WITH A POSSIBLY FOR TIGHTENING OF THE
TIMING.

FOR TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
RETURNING...WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS TO FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...THOUGH RIDGETOP LOCATIONS SUCH AS JKL HAVE BEEN DOWN INTO
THE VLIFR RANGE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG/LOW STRATUS. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING AS A SFC LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH DEPART TO THE EAST. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER 2Z SHOULD
LEAD TO FOG AND OR STRATUS BUILD DOWN. THIS COULD BECOME DENSE
BETWEEN 5Z AND 12Z. THIS FOG SHOULD THEN LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z
WITH SOME SHALLOW CU DEVELOPING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KPAH 052025
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD TAKE PESKY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WITH IT. SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING N OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...AHEAD  OF H70 TROF...BUT THOSE HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THE
DAY HAS PROGRESSED.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL (H50) NWLY
FLOW WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES BY MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION MON/TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH TEMPS AT
OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL...ESP AT NIGHT. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION
MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL RETURN TO DAY TIME
HEAT...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY
THU/FRI.

ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THIS WEEK WILL BE WITH THE TRANSITION TO
WARMER TEMPS AROUND MID WEEK TIME FRAME. OPERATIONAL GFS NOW SEEMS
TO BE HONING IN ON A SIGNAL FOR LATE WED/WED NIGHT TIME FRAME...IN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE STRETCHING FROM CNTRL IL SSE INTO SW IN AND NW
KY. 12Z GFS INDICATES A FAIRLY STRONG MID LVL SHORT WAVE DIVING SE
INTO IL SAT WITHIN THE BROAD MID LVL NW FLOW...AND DEVELOPS A MESO
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...
THE ECMWF HINTS AT A SHORT WAVE WED...BUT HAS IT MOISTURE STARVED
AND SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SFC BOUNDARY. AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GIVE THE MODELS ANOTHER RUN OR
TWO TO GET A CONSISTENT SIGNAL. WILL HOLD OFF ON SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT FOR NOW...BUT STAY TUNED.

BEYOND THE BIG WARM UP THU/FRI...MED RANGE MODELS STILL WANT TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND...AND TRANSITION TO A MORE NW FLOW
REGIME AGAIN. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. WOULD ALSO SERVE TO BREAK THE HEAT A BIT TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL BE HARD TO RID THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THO THINKING IS THAT KEVV/KOWB AREAS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH...MAY SEE A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT IF
STRATUS DECK LOWERS FROM CURRENT MVFR LVLS. IF STRATUS DOES
LOWER...COULD ALSO SEE MVFR/IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

MEFFERT

000
FXUS63 KLMK 051922
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MON)...

ESE MOVG SFC LOW/CDFNT JUST PASSING TO THE SE OF BWG ATTM...WINDS AT
HOP/BWG HAVE SHIFTED TO WNW. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CLUSTERS...
FEEDING INTO A MAIN LINE EXTENDING ACRS SCNTRL KY...WITH STORMS
PROGRESSING TO THE SE. WILL HAVE A SUB FIRST PERIOD AND KEEP TSTMS
IN THE FCST INTO LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE ACRS SCNTRL PARTS THEN DROP
POPS BY 00Z.

UPR LEVEL NW FLO PATTERN CONTS THRU THIS PERIOD. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE ERN TN VLY TNGT AND CONTINUE SEWD. CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH
PRES...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING EWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY...EXPECTED TO
DROP SEWD INTO OUR FA BY LATE MON. TIL THEN...BASED ON LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WIND PROGS AND SUPPORTED BY STLT IMAGERY...LOW CLDS WILL
LINGER MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPING IN AREAS THAT DO CLR
OUT. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLDY SKIES WITH FOG DEVELOPING.

LOW LEVELS SHUD BEGIN A DRYING OUT PROCESS MON WITH CLRG FROM N TO
S. GFS MOS TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR SDF...ARE COOLER AND WITH NLY
FLOW...PREFERRED FOR MON. CURRENT LOW-MID 80S IN THE FCST LOOKS
FINE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

MODELS CONTINUE PUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MAJOR SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE OVERALL PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF...RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ARE INCONSISTENT
IN BOTH PLACEMENT OF RH AND VORTICITY...WITH THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION HINTED AT DURING VARIOUS TIME FRAMES AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL.  GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THESE
SIGNATURES HAVE OPTED FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF LOW 20 POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH NO PRECIP BEFORE THEN.

DESPITE THE PAST FEW COOL DAYS...IT IS JULY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE TO REBOUND EVENTUALLY.  THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO DO JUST THAT
WITH 50H RIDGE TO THE WEST SPREADING OUT TO ALLOW FOR SFC-500
THICKNESS INCREASES TO NEAR 580 BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WITH LIKELY
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO LIMIT THE MERCURY RISE SOMEWHAT.  WITH LIMITED
RH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNSHINE WILL
HELP TO HEAT UP BOTH MAX AND MIN READINGS 1-3 DEGREES EACH
DAY...TOPPING OUT IN A LOW 70 TO LOW 90 RANGE BY END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVG ACRS SCNTRL KY WILL DROP INTO NERN TN
TNGT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL INTO ECNTRL KY WILL
CONTINUE A SEWD MOVEMENT AND LIKELY EXIT ALL BUT OUR SERN MOST FA BY
00Z MON...CLEARING ALL TAF SITES. AFTERWARD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THIS EVE...WITH MVFR CONDS IN FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...CIGS AT BWG WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR VALUES
BEFORE SUNRISE. A CLEARING TREND WITH LIFTING FOG SHUD BEGIN AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CONDS SLOWEST TO IMPROVE AT BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....JBS
AVIATION.....11

000
FXUS63 KJKL 051921
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PRESENT AT UPPER LEVELS...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE ROCKIES. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE. AT THE SFC...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THIS WAVE OVER CENTRAL KY.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE MUCH MORE
STABLE.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BOUNDARY PASSING SOUTH OF THE CWA AS A COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO EXIT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID OR HIGH CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. AT
THE SFC...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT...PLAN TO GO WITH A PREFIRST PERIOD IN THE ZFP TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER POPS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY HWY 80 CORRIDOR THAT HAVE
RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY AND PROGGED TO BE HIGHER THERE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SW CWA...SO ANY STRONGER STORMS SHOULD OCCUR
THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS UNTIL ABOUT 0Z FROM
NEAR JKL SOUTH...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY EXITS AND THE TROUGH PASSES. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND
THE FRONT EXITS...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR. A RATHER WEAK PRESS GRADIENT AND RECENT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG...PROBABLY DEVELOPING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS FOG SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND COULD BECOME
DENSE...AT LEAST AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT WAS NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS
WILL BE ENTIRELY FOG OR PERHAPS LOW STRATUS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WENT
WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT. IF CLEARING DOES MATERIALIZE...A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MON AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...LIFTING INTO SOME CU.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BY WARMER AIR
BETWEEN 750 MB AND 600 MB BOTH ON MON AND TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL FAIR WX CU IS EXPECTED.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A BIT DRIER THAN THE CURRENT
ONE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY LATE ON
MON AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS
BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHTS WITH NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS EXPERIENCING
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WITH RIDGETOPS/MORE OPEN TERRAIN
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS TO START THE PERIOD WILL BUILD
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
REINFORCING/AMPLIFYING AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOME MODEL RUNS BRING PRECIP CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOMETHING GETTING
INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL PUT THE POP AT LESS THAN
20 PERCENT...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A DRY FORECAST. LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SUPPRESSES THE
RIDGE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE USED A BROAD PERIOD OF 20 PERCENT
POP. IT IS LIKELY THAT POPS WILL BE INCREASED FOR SOME POINT IN TIME
AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...WITH A POSSIBLY FOR TIGHTENING OF THE
TIMING.

FOR TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
RETURNING...WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS TO FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...THOUGH RIDGETOP LOCATIONS SUCH AS JKL HAVE BEEN DOWN INTO
THE VLIFR RANGE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH SIMILAR CIGS AT TIMES...THOUGH WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA AND AFFECTING SME AND LOZ. THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING AS A SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH DEPART. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER 2Z SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AND OR STRATUS BUILDOWN. THIS
COULD BECOME DENSE BETWEEN 5Z AND 12Z. THIS FOG SHOULD THEN
LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z WITH SOME SHALLOW CU DEVELOPING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 051810 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

A SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KY IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ATTM ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE
EASTERNMOST TIP OF PIKE COUNTY WEST TO NEAR HAZARD (K20) TO NEAR
RICHMOND (KI39) THEN FURTHER WEST TO NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN. MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION IS OCCURRING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN THE
INTERSTATE 64 AND HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY HWY 80 CORRIDORS. FURTHER TO
THE WEST NEAR THE SFC WAVE AND CLOSER TO A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED. 15Z RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SBCAPE OF ABOUT 500 TO 1200 J/KG OVER SOUTHCENTRAL KY...WITH
SIMILAR MLCAPE VALUES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER THERE AS
WELL DUE TO WARMER TEMPS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
ONGOING AREAS OF PRECIP WELL. HOWEVER...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SFC BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. A JET STREAK ROTATING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY SHOULD ENHANCE THE SHOWERS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDER..
ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND/CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST. OVERALL...RAISED POPS IN THE
AREA ALREADY EXPERIENCING SHOWERS...WITH HIGHER POPS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
MOVE NORTH A LITTLE AS A WARM FRONT JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE...TEMPS
IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 64 AND HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY HWY
80 CORRIDOR WILL BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AND OPTED
TO LOWER MAX T THERE A DEGREE. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP ARE ALREADY OUT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

SFC CHART SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE TRACK OF THIS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KY/TN
STATE LINE TODAY. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY...THIS
EVENING GRADUALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS THE CWA AS THE NOSE OF AN H850 JET
MAX TRANSITS OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HIGHER
POPS ADVERTISED BY MAV/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS RUNNING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN RECENT DAYS. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WHICH REGIONAL SAT LOOP
APPEARS TO SUPPORT. CONTINUED TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR POSSIBLE PEAKS AT SOME SUNSHINE IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ADDED IN SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDINESS. EXPECT FOG TO BE LOCALLY DENSE IN AT LEAST SOME
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA SOON ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON AVERAGE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
RETURN OF A NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NW OR WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT THU...BUT ATTM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE OH RIVER BY LATE
FRI AND EARLY SAT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE CWA AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB
FROM THE LOWER 80S...BEFORE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK BY THU AND FRI. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 BY FRI. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MON THROUGH
WED. AT LEAST SMALL TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS MAY
OCCUR WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER OR PERHAPS EVEN THE MID
50S ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS...WHILE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

AS FOR POPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA...THOUGH RIDGETOP LOCATIONS SUCH AS JKL HAVE BEEN DOWN INTO
THE VLIFR RANGE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH SIMILAR CIGS AT TIMES...THOUGH WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
CWA AND AFFECTING SME AND LOZ. THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF IN
THE EVENING AS A SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH DEPART. AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER 2Z SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AND OR STRATUS BUILDOWN. THIS
COULD BECOME DENSE BETWEEN 5Z AND 12Z. THIS FOG SHOULD THEN
LIFT/DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z WITH SOME SHALLOW CU DEVELOPING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/JP
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 051800
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE FOR (18Z TAFS)...

.NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...

RECORD LOW (MAX TEMPS) WILL LIKELY BE SET AT SDF AND LEX THIS AFTN
AS CLOUD COVER/E-NE WINDS/SCT SHOWERS HOLD TEMPS DOWN. THE RECORDS
ARE:

SDF (74 - 1997)
LEX (71 - 1970)

BWG AND THE REST OF SCNTRL KY WILL BE WARMER (ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
WARM FRONT) AS LOW PRES MOVES THRU SRN/CENTRAL KY. SHOWERS ARE OVER
FOR OUR NRN MOST COUNTIES...BUT THE REST OF THE FA WILL SEE
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR
FRONT. TSTMS ARE ELEVATED-OBVIOUSLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT...THERE HAS BEEN A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS ARE APPARENT IN STLT IMAGERY.
STORMS MAY BECOME SFC BASED IN SRN KY DURG THE AFTN AS CAPES EXCEED
1000 J/KG.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL AND WESTERN KY/TN. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LOW MOVE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD
SUNRISE...PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
MORE QUICKLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER REMAINS AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARM-UP WILL RULE THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. ALTHOUGH OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW...IT IS A DRY AND
WEAK NW FLOW...WITH THE BEST/FASTEST NW FLOW ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW. RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...RAISING OUR TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 90 FOR
HIGHS BY WED AND THRS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WORK WEEK COULD BE WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY THE GFS AT THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS WARM FRONT COULD TRAVEL AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR
NERN CWA WED NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...AS THE
EURO KEEPS US DRY...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP THIS NORTH
OF OUR CWA. WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT IT BEARS
WATCHING.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN. IT
GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN A NEAR CARBON COPY OF THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A VORT LOBE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE FAR OUT TIME FRAME AND TIMING
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL INSERT POPS OF 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVG ACRS SCNTRL KY WILL DROP INTO NERN TN
TNGT.

SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SCNTRL INTO ECNTRL KY WILL
CONTINUE A SEWD MOVEMENT AND LIKELY EXIT ALL BUT OUR SERN MOST FA BY
00Z MON...CLEARING ALL TAF SITES. AFTERWARD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THIS EVE...WITH MVFR CONDS IN FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...CIGS AT BWG WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR VALUES
BEFORE SUNRISE. A CLEARING TREND WITH LIFTING FOG SHUD BEGIN AFTER
SUNRISE WITH CONDS SLOWEST TO IMPROVE AT BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM....KIRKPATRICK
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....11

000
FXUS63 KLMK 051600
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...

RECORD LOW (MAX TEMPS) WILL LIKELY BE SET AT SDF AND LEX THIS AFTN
AS CLOUD COVER/E-NE WINDS/SCT SHOWERS HOLD TEMPS DOWN. THE RECORDS
ARE:

SDF (74 - 1997)
LEX (71 - 1970)

BWG AND THE REST OF SCNTRL KY WILL BE WARMER (ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
WARM FRONT) AS LOW PRES MOVES THRU SRN/CENTRAL KY. SHOWERS ARE OVER
FOR OUR NRN MOST COUNTIES...BUT THE REST OF THE FA WILL SEE
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR
FRONT. TSTMS ARE ELEVATED-OBVIOUSLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT...THERE HAS BEEN A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS ARE APPARENT IN STLT IMAGERY.
STORMS MAY BECOME SFC BASED IN SRN KY DURG THE AFTN AS CAPES EXCEED
1000 J/KG.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL AND WESTERN KY/TN. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LOW MOVE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD
SUNRISE...PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
MORE QUICKLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER REMAINS AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARM-UP WILL RULE THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. ALTHOUGH OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW...IT IS A DRY AND
WEAK NW FLOW...WITH THE BEST/FASTEST NW FLOW ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW. RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...RAISING OUR TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 90 FOR
HIGHS BY WED AND THRS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WORK WEEK COULD BE WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY THE GFS AT THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS WARM FRONT COULD TRAVEL AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR
NERN CWA WED NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...AS THE
EURO KEEPS US DRY...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP THIS NORTH
OF OUR CWA. WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT IT BEARS
WATCHING.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN. IT
GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN A NEAR CARBON COPY OF THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A VORT LOBE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE FAR OUT TIME FRAME AND TIMING
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL INSERT POPS OF 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.


&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE
AND IS STILL SITTING ALONG THE MO/IL/KY TRI-STATE AREA ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW WILL CONTOUR TO VERY SLOW SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
SOME SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT WAS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE WITH SOME LIFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
AT LEX. OVERNIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL START TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT-BKN WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY...OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE LEX AREA
AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ONCE THE LOW PASSES IN THE SDF AREA
WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LEFT AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THIS
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT VSBYS COULD FALL TO 3 TO 5 SM FROM 09Z
TO 12Z MON.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM....KIRKPATRICK
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....LS/11

000
FXUS63 KJKL 051558 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1158 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

A SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KY IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ATTM ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY THE
EASTERNMOST TIP OF PIKE COUNTY WEST TO NEAR HAZARD (K20) TO NEAR
RICHMOND (KI39) THEN FURTHER WEST TO NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN. MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION IS OCCURRING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN THE
INTERSTATE 64 AND HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY HWY 80 CORRIDORS. FURTHER TO
THE WEST NEAR THE SFC WAVE AND CLOSER TO A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED. 15Z RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES SBCAPE OF ABOUT 500 TO 1200 J/KG OVER SOUTHCENTRAL KY...WITH
SIMILAR MLCAPE VALUES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER THERE AS
WELL DUE TO WARMER TEMPS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
ONGOING AREAS OF PRECIP WELL. HOWEVER...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SFC BOUNDARY
MOVES SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. A JET STREAK ROTATING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY SHOULD ENHANCE THE SHOWERS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN SHOULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDER..
ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND/CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST. OVERALL...RAISED POPS IN THE
AREA ALREADY EXPERIENCING SHOWERS...WITH HIGHER POPS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
MOVE NORTH A LITTLE AS A WARM FRONT JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE...TEMPS
IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 64 AND HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/KY HWY
80 CORRIDOR WILL BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AND OPTED
TO LOWER MAX T THERE A DEGREE. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP ARE ALREADY OUT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

SFC CHART SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE TRACK OF THIS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KY/TN
STATE LINE TODAY. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY...THIS
EVENING GRADUALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS THE CWA AS THE NOSE OF AN H850 JET
MAX TRANSITS OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HIGHER
POPS ADVERTISED BY MAV/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS RUNNING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN RECENT DAYS. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WHICH REGIONAL SAT LOOP
APPEARS TO SUPPORT. CONTINUED TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR POSSIBLE PEAKS AT SOME SUNSHINE IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ADDED IN SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDINESS. EXPECT FOG TO BE LOCALLY DENSE IN AT LEAST SOME
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA SOON ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON AVERAGE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
RETURN OF A NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NW OR WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT THU...BUT ATTM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE OH RIVER BY LATE
FRI AND EARLY SAT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE CWA AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB
FROM THE LOWER 80S...BEFORE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK BY THU AND FRI. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 BY FRI. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MON THROUGH
WED. AT LEAST SMALL TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS MAY
OCCUR WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER OR PERHAPS EVEN THE MID
50S ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS...WHILE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

AS FOR POPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

CONDITIONS WILL VARY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS WAVES OF CONVECTION AND BRIEF LULLS CROSS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING OVER THE AREA ON ITS WAY TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. AS SUCH...WILL BE CARRYING A TEMPO FOR
LOW...IFR TO LIFR...VIS AND CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG. WILL ALSO INCLUDE VCTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. EVEN AS THE PCPN THINS
OUT...EXPECT MVFR FOG AND CIGS TO HANG AROUND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THIS DAMP ENVIRONMENT BEFORE POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE
EVENING. OCCASIONAL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT FLOW MAKES IT
DOWN TO THE SFC...BUT OTHERWISE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALSO FOLLOW LATER IN THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH DIRECTION SWITCHING AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/JP
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KJKL 051145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

SFC CHART SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE TRACK OF THIS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KY/TN
STATE LINE TODAY. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY...THIS
EVENING GRADUALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS THE CWA AS THE NOSE OF AN H850 JET
MAX TRANSITS OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HIGHER
POPS ADVERTISED BY MAV/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS RUNNING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN RECENT DAYS. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WHICH REGIONAL SAT LOOP
APPEARS TO SUPPORT. CONTINUED TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR POSSIBLE PEAKS AT SOME SUNSHINE IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ADDED IN SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDINESS. EXPECT FOG TO BE LOCALLY DENSE IN AT LEAST SOME
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA SOON ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON AVERAGE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
RETURN OF A NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NW OR WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT THU...BUT ATTM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE OH RIVER BY LATE
FRI AND EARLY SAT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE CWA AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB
FROM THE LOWER 80S...BEFORE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK BY THU AND FRI. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 BY FRI. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MON THROUGH
WED. AT LEAST SMALL TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS MAY
OCCUR WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER OR PERHAPS EVEN THE MID
50S ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS...WHILE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

AS FOR POPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

CONDITIONS WILL VARY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS WAVES OF CONVECTION AND BRIEF LULLS CROSS THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING OVER THE AREA ON ITS WAY TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. AS SUCH...WILL BE CARRYING A TEMPO FOR
LOW...IFR TO LIFR...VIS AND CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG. WILL ALSO INCLUDE VCTS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. EVEN AS THE PCPN THINS
OUT...EXPECT MVFR FOG AND CIGS TO HANG AROUND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
IN THIS DAMP ENVIRONMENT BEFORE POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE
EVENING. OCCASIONAL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT FLOW MAKES IT
DOWN TO THE SFC...BUT OTHERWISE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALSO FOLLOW LATER IN THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
WITH DIRECTION SWITCHING AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 051145
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
740 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE FOR (12Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL AND WESTERN KY/TN. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LOW MOVE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD
SUNRISE...PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
MORE QUICKLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER REMAINS AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARM-UP WILL RULE THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. ALTHOUGH OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW...IT IS A DRY AND
WEAK NW FLOW...WITH THE BEST/FASTEST NW FLOW ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW. RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...RAISING OUR TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 90 FOR
HIGHS BY WED AND THRS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WORK WEEK COULD BE WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY THE GFS AT THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS WARM FRONT COULD TRAVEL AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR
NERN CWA WED NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...AS THE
EURO KEEPS US DRY...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP THIS NORTH
OF OUR CWA. WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT IT BEARS
WATCHING.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN. IT
GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN A NEAR CARBON COPY OF THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A VORT LOBE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE FAR OUT TIME FRAME AND TIMING
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL INSERT POPS OF 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.


&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE
AND IS STILL SITTING ALONG THE MO/IL/KY TRI-STATE AREA ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW WILL CONTOUR TO VERY SLOW SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
SOME SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT WAS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AND
SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE WITH SOME LIFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
AT LEX. OVERNIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL START TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT-BKN WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TODAY...OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW IN THE LEX AREA
AND OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ONCE THE LOW PASSES IN THE SDF AREA
WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LEFT AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THIS
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT VSBYS COULD FALL TO 3 TO 5 SM FROM 09Z
TO 12Z MON.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....LS/11

000
FXUS63 KPAH 051111
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
611 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADARS THIS MORNING INDICATED A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHWRS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR. MOIST AIR APPEARED TO BE INTERACTING WITH A WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT WAS SET UP EAST OF A SFC LOW NEAR PINCKNEYVILLE IN
PERRY COUNTY ILLINOIS. PCPN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF IT WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES ESE
AND A 700 MB TROF AXIS APPROACHES. THUS...POPS HAVE BEEN HELD IN
FOR SOME AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME TODAY...THEN THEY ARE TAPERED OFF MORE TOWARD THE SE AFTER THAT
AS THE LOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KY. THE REGION SHOULD
BE PCPN FREE FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES BY SUNDAY EVE.

FURTHER ON IN THE FCST...THE PAH FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT INITIALLY...THEN BY MID WEEK THE FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME
MORE SLACK. AHEAD OF ANOTHER NRN STREAM MID LEVEL SHRTWV...A SURGE
OF MOIST RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THE REGION BY FRI. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
ALSO...INCREASING PEAK AFTN TEMPS. THE SHRTWV TROF MAY GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR TSTMS BY NEXT SAT. THIS MAY
PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE EXPECTED LATE WEEK MID 90S TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT KEVV AND KOWB...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LOWER
VSBYS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY REACH KCGI AND KPAH THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTH BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW PRESSURE. IT WILL
BE HARD TO RID THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO WILL ONLY GRADUALLY RAISE
BASES AND VSBYS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH THIS INTO TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH LIGHT
FOG OR REAPPEARANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS FOR NOW BASED ON MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KPAH 050838
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
338 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
RADARS THIS MORNING INDICATED A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHWRS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR. MOIST AIR APPEARED TO BE INTERACTING WITH A WEAK WARM
FRONT THAT WAS SET UP EAST OF A SFC LOW NEAR PINCKNEYVILLE IN
PERRY COUNTY ILLINOIS. PCPN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SOUTH OF IT WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES ESE
AND A 700 MB TROF AXIS APPROACHES. THUS...POPS HAVE BEEN HELD IN
FOR SOME AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER FOR THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME TODAY...THEN THEY ARE TAPERED OFF MORE TOWARD THE SE AFTER THAT
AS THE LOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE INTO CENTRAL KY. THE REGION SHOULD
BE PCPN FREE FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES BY SUNDAY EVE.

FURTHER ON IN THE FCST...THE PAH FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT INITIALLY...THEN BY MID WEEK THE FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME
MORE SLACK. AHEAD OF ANOTHER NRN STREAM MID LEVEL SHRTWV...A SURGE
OF MOIST RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN
THE REGION BY FRI. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
ALSO...INCREASING PEAK AFTN TEMPS. THE SHRTWV TROF MAY GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR TSTMS BY NEXT SAT. THIS MAY
PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE EXPECTED LATE WEEK MID 90S TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AT KEVV/KOWB SHOULD FALL INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.5KFT AGL RANGE
BY 14Z SUNDAY...BEYOND THAT TIME...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE AT THE
SURFACE BRINGING UP VISIBILITIES TO VFR CATEGORY AND SUSTAINING
OVERCAST...BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-3.5KFT AGL.

FOR THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD FALL DOWN INTO THE
1.5-2.5KFT AGL RANGE AS A LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THESE SITES TO THE EAST.
BY 14Z...CEILINGS BETWEEN 2.5-3.0KFT AGL SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO KEVV/KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 050705 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED

SFC CHART SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE TRACK OF THIS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KY/TN
STATE LINE TODAY. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY...THIS
EVENING GRADUALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS THE CWA AS THE NOSE OF AN H850 JET
MAX TRANSITS OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HIGHER
POPS ADVERTISED BY MAV/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS RUNNING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN RECENT DAYS. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WHICH REGIONAL SAT LOOP
APPEARS TO SUPPORT. CONTINUED TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR POSSIBLE PEAKS AT SOME SUNSHINE IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ADDED IN SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CLOUDINESS. EXPECT FOG TO BE LOCALLY DENSE IN AT LEAST SOME
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA SOON ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON AVERAGE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
RETURN OF A NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NW OR WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT THU...BUT ATTM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE OH RIVER BY LATE
FRI AND EARLY SAT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE CWA AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB
FROM THE LOWER 80S...BEFORE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK BY THU AND FRI. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 BY FRI. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MON THROUGH
WED. AT LEAST SMALL TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS MAY
OCCUR WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER OR PERHAPS EVEN THE MID
50S ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS...WHILE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

AS FOR POPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

CONDITIONS WILL VARY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS WAVES OF CONVECTION AND LULLS IN THE PCPN PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS
SUCH...WILL BE CARRYING A TEMPO FOR LOW VIS AND CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. WILL ALSO INCLUDE VCTS THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. EXPECT
MVFR FOG AND CIGS TO HANG AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY IN THIS DAMP
ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KTS WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW MAKES IT TO THE SFC. LIGHTER WINDS FOLLOW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH WIND DIRECTION SPINNING
AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KJKL 050701
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED

SFC CHART SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE TRACK OF THIS SFC
LOW ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING THIS FEATURE ROUGHLY ALONG THE KY/TN
STATE LINE TODAY. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY...THIS
EVENING GRADUALLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS THE CWA AS THE NOSE OF AN H850 JET
MAX TRANSITING OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HIGHER
POPS ADVERTISED BY MAV/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS RUNNING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN RECENT DAYS. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WHICH REGIONAL SAT LOOP
APPEARS TO SUPPORT. CONTINUED TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
INCREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR POSSIBLE PEAKS AT SOME SUNSHINE.
OTHERWISE...ADDED IN SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON AVERAGE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
RETURN OF A NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NW OR WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT THU...BUT ATTM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE OH RIVER BY LATE
FRI AND EARLY SAT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE CWA AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB
FROM THE LOWER 80S...BEFORE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK BY THU AND FRI. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 BY FRI. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MON THROUGH
WED. AT LEAST SMALL TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS MAY
OCCUR WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER OR PERHAPS EVEN THE MID
50S ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS...WHILE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

AS FOR POPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

CONDITIONS WILL VARY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS WAVES OF CONVECTION AND LULLS IN THE PCPN PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS
SUCH...WILL BE CARRYING A TEMPO FOR LOW VIS AND CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. WILL ALSO INCLUDE VCTS THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. EXPECT
MVFR FOG AND CIGS TO HANG AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY IN THIS DAMP
ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KTS WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW MAKES IT TO THE SFC. LIGHTER WINDS FOLLOW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH WIND DIRECTION SPINNING
AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 050643 CCA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL AND WESTERN KY/TN. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LOW MOVE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE LOW MOVE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY...EXPECT THAT AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD
SUNRISE...PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
MORE QUICKLY WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER REMAINS AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THURSDAY...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARM-UP WILL RULE THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. ALTHOUGH OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER A NW FLOW...IT IS A DRY AND
WEAK NW FLOW...WITH THE BEST/FASTEST NW FLOW ENERGY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW. RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...RAISING OUR TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 90 FOR
HIGHS BY WED AND THRS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WORK WEEK COULD BE WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY THE GFS AT THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS WARM FRONT COULD TRAVEL AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR
NERN CWA WED NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER...AS THE
EURO KEEPS US DRY...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP THIS NORTH
OF OUR CWA. WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT IT BEARS
WATCHING.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN. IT
GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN A NEAR CARBON COPY OF THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A VORT LOBE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE FAR OUT TIME FRAME AND TIMING
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL INSERT POPS OF 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.


&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM CENTRAL IL/MO TO WESTERN KY/TN. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BRINGING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE AREA
WITH VCSH. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WHILE THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AROUND 12Z...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE AREA. THEREFORE...BROUGHT RAIN INTO ALL TERMINALS AT 12Z AND END
IT BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z KEEPING CIGS AROUND 15 HUNDRED TO 3 KFT DURING
THIS TIME BEFORE BECOMING VFR DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP TO REMAIN LIGHT
BUT THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT
AND MID LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....LS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 050550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/

ONGOING SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PCPN IS WITHIN SIGHT FROM SDF TO EVV. THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA ARE
LOCATED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER JUST NORTH OF BNA AND SEEM TO BE
SLIPPING TO THE SE. CURRENT TRAJECTORY LOOKS TO MISS ERN KY
ALTOGETHER WITH THE TSRA. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT CAT POPS BUT WILL
DOWNPLAY THE CHC FOR THUNDER. PCPN LOOKS TO BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR OUR
MOST NRN AND SRN COUNTIES THAT COULD SEE SOME TRAINING OF HEAVIER
CELLS. EVEN STILL...PCPN SHOULD BE WELL BELOW FFG VALUES AND WILL BE
STRETCHED OVER SEVERAL HOURS. PCPN HAS CHILLED THE AIR BELOW FCST
VALUES AND EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD SPIRAL ALBEIT
SLOWER. STILL HAVE REDUCED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A COUPLE DEG FOR MOST
AREAS. DWPTS ARE HIER ALSO SO THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING FOG IF THE
RAIN WILL END. CURRENT FCST DOES NOT SEE MUCH END TO THE PCPN TONIGHT
SO HAVE LEFT THE FOG OUT AND WILL HAVE TO MET WATCH AS FOG WILL BE
DENSE IF IT FORMS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

LIGHT RAIN FROM REMNANTS OF MCS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM THE MCS HAS
REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LOW
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
WEST KY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OLD MCS IN AREA WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH NO THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS KY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AS SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE LIFT ACROSS E KY OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA.
WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
GFS IS SLOWEST WITH MOVEMENT OF LOW ACROSS THE STATE...WITH LOW STILL
OVER SC KY AT 18Z SUNDAY. PREFER THE 12Z NAM WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE SREF WITH AN EXIT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH THE
QUICKER MOVEMENT FOLLOWED HERE WILL STILL NEED TO INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM LIKELY IN THE
NORTHWEST TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCE IN W KY THIS EVENING AND OVER
TN ON SUNDAY PER THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SW PART OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON AVERAGE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
RETURN OF A NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NW OR WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT THU...BUT ATTM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE OH RIVER BY LATE
FRI AND EARLY SAT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE CWA AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB
FROM THE LOWER 80S...BEFORE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK BY THU AND FRI. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 BY FRI. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MON THROUGH
WED. AT LEAST SMALL TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS MAY
OCCUR WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER OR PERHAPS EVEN THE MID
50S ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS...WHILE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

AS FOR POPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

CONDITIONS WILL VARY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS WAVES OF CONVECTION AND LULLS IN THE PCPN PASS THROUGH THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS
SUCH...WILL BE CARRYING A TEMPO FOR LOW VIS AND CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. WILL ALSO INCLUDE VCTS THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. EXPECT
MVFR FOG AND CIGS TO HANG AROUND WELL INTO THE DAY IN THIS DAMP
ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KTS WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW MAKES IT TO THE SFC. LIGHTER WINDS FOLLOW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH WIND DIRECTION SPINNING
AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH/DUSTY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KPAH 050546 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE...
DISCUSSION FOR 06Z SUNDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
KEVV/KOWB TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z...WITH ATTENDANT IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES BY AND THE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH OF THESE SITES...CEILINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 1.5 TO
2.5KFT AGL RANGE THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY...BEYOND THAT TIME...DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE AT THE SURFACE BRINGING UP VISIBILITIES TO VFR CATEGORY
AND SUSTAINING OVERCAST...BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN
3-3.5KFT AGL.

FOR THE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES...LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION IS
CONTEMPLATED DIRECTLY FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD
FALL DOWN INTO THE 1.5-2.5KFT AGL RANGE AS THE LOW AND ATTENDANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH OF THESE SITES. BY 14Z...CEILINGS
BETWEEN 2.5-3.0KFT AGL SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO KEVV/KOWB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SVR RISK CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SFC WARM FRONT HAS DRAPED ITSELF RIGHT ALONG THE MS RVR DOWN INTO
THE PAH AREA. SFC BASED CAPES RUNNING 1500-2500 WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY INTO SE MO. LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TO THE NW OF THE OH RVR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRAVERSE WRN KY/FAR SE
MO THUS EVENING. MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL...BUT ANY CELL THAT TRY TO DEVIATE FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND
TRAVERSE THE WARM FRONT (IE MOVE SE AS OPPOSED TO E) COULD SPIN UP
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE MS/OH
RIVER CONFLUENCE AREA BY SUNSET. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ESE
OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH IT.

WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS SFC LOW/COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE REGION. COULD BE A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NO
MAJOR CONCERN. CLOUDS AND NLY WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

NUMERICAL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST STATES BY MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MON/TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH
TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL...ESP AT NIGHT. MID LEVEL HIGH OUT
OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION
MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL RETURN TO DAY TIME
HEAT...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY
THU/FRI. WITH THE MID RIDGE IN CONTROL...WILL LIKELY SEE THERMAL
CAPPING ALOFT AND LITTLE OVERALL MOISTURE. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK NIL THROUGH FRI.

THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE MID
LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SAT...SO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT THAT TIME.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST
IN WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER KY. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF
AT KEVV/KOWB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT KPAH/KCGI...ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE ISLD...UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EVENING HRS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER TSRA...WITH POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS. AFTER
THE CONVECTION...COULD SEE SOME -RA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AFTER WHICH
CIGS COULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO BLO 1000 FT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SMITH

000
FXUS63 KLMK 050522 CCA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE OF 06Z TAFS...

UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...

IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SVR STORM POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE TO OUR SW
THIS EVE...WITH OUR SWRN MOST FA HAVING THE BEST CHC OF BEING PLACED
IN A LATE DAY WATCH. DESTABILIZATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING
STARTED...THOUGH IT IS ACCELERATING NOW ACRS THE WRN TN VLY AND THE
MO/IL/KY TRI STATE REGION...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NEAR 70 AND
CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.

NRN MO LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VLYS TNGT. A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF OUR FA TNGT...WHILE
ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOP ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SYS...WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER. IT APPEARS THAT A 1 TO 2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN
IS LIKELY ACRS MOST OF OUR FA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN OUR
CENTRAL/SRN FA WHERE TSTMS SHUD BE MORE NUMEROUS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STMS SHUD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE WITH
SCT SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY TO
FOLLOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...WINDS SHUD SHIFT TO A NLY COMPONENT
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMP DAY FOR EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM
EXITS...PRECIP CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. RELATIVELY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF GENERATING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THE LEVELS THEY WERE DURING THE LAST DRY SPELL.  WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY...A
WEAK BUT ADVANTAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP GULF
MOISTURE WELL AWAY...LEAVING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN LOWER 70S RETURN TO THE PICTURE FOR
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN. IT
GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN A NEAR CARBON COPY OF THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A VORT LOBE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE FAR OUT TIME FRAME AND TIMING
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL INSERT POPS OF 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM CENTRAL IL/MO TO WESTERN KY/TN. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BRINGING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE AREA
WITH VCSH. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WHILE THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AROUND 12Z...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE AREA. THEREFORE...BROUGHT RAIN INTO ALL TERMINALS AT 12Z AND END
IT BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z KEEPING CIGS AROUND 15 HUNDRED TO 3 KFT DURING
THIS TIME BEFORE BECOMING VFR DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP TO REMAIN LIGHT
BUT THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT
AND MID LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....JBS
AVIATION.....LS

000
FXUS63 KLMK 050521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE OF 06Z TAFS...

UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...

IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SVR STORM POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE TO OUR SW
THIS EVE...WITH OUR SWRN MOST FA HAVING THE BEST CHC OF BEING PLACED
IN A LATE DAY WATCH. DESTABILIZATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING
STARTED...THOUGH IT IS ACCELERATING NOW ACRS THE WRN TN VLY AND THE
MO/IL/KY TRI STATE REGION...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NEAR 70 AND
CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.

NRN MO LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VLYS TNGT. A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF OUR FA TNGT...WHILE
ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOP ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SYS...WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER. IT APPEARS THAT A 1 TO 2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN
IS LIKELY ACRS MOST OF OUR FA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN OUR
CENTRAL/SRN FA WHERE TSTMS SHUD BE MORE NUMEROUS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STMS SHUD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE WITH
SCT SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY TO
FOLLOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...WINDS SHUD SHIFT TO A NLY COMPONENT
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMP DAY FOR EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM
EXITS...PRECIP CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. RELATIVELY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF GENERATING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THE LEVELS THEY WERE DURING THE LAST DRY SPELL.  WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY...A
WEAK BUT ADVANTAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP GULF
MOISTURE WELL AWAY...LEAVING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN LOWER 70S RETURN TO THE PICTURE FOR
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN. IT
GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN A NEAR CARBON COPY OF THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A VORT LOBE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE FAR OUT TIME FRAME AND TIMING
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL INSERT POPS OF 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM CENTRAL IL/MO TO WESTERN KY/TN. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BRINGING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS TO THE AREA
WITH VCSH. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WHILE THE AREA WILL SEE A BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AROUND 12Z...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE 700 MB TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE AREA. THEREFORE...BROUGHT RAIN INTO ALL TERMINALS AT 12Z AND END
IT BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z KEEPING CIGS AROUND 15 HUNDRED TO 3 KFT DURING
THIS TIME BEFORE BECOMING VFR DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP TO REMAIN LIGHT
BUT THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS AT TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET AS THE FRONT
AND MID LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....JBS
AVIATION.....LS

000
FXUS63 KLMK 050145
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
950 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.LATE EVENING UPDATE...

AT 10PM ET WE WILL DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LOGAN AND
SIMPSON COUNTIES. I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SOME ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY WORDING ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAIN ISSUE
WITH THE STORMS WILL BE RAINFALL. LOGAN COUNTY MESONET INDICATED
AROUND 1.00 IF RAIN WITH THE STORMS SO FAR.


SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...

IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SVR STORM POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE TO OUR SW
THIS EVE...WITH OUR SWRN MOST FA HAVING THE BEST CHC OF BEING PLACED
IN A LATE DAY WATCH. DESTABILIZATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING
STARTED...THOUGH IT IS ACCELERATING NOW ACRS THE WRN TN VLY AND THE
MO/IL/KY TRI STATE REGION...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NEAR 70 AND
CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.

NRN MO LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VLYS TNGT. A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF OUR FA TNGT...WHILE
ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOP ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SYS...WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER. IT APPEARS THAT A 1 TO 2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN
IS LIKELY ACRS MOST OF OUR FA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN OUR
CENTRAL/SRN FA WHERE TSTMS SHUD BE MORE NUMEROUS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STMS SHUD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE WITH
SCT SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY TO
FOLLOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...WINDS SHUD SHIFT TO A NLY COMPONENT
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMP DAY FOR EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM
EXITS...PRECIP CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. RELATIVELY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF GENERATING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THE LEVELS THEY WERE DURING THE LAST DRY SPELL.  WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY...A
WEAK BUT ADVANTAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP GULF
MOISTURE WELL AWAY...LEAVING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN LOWER 70S RETURN TO THE PICTURE FOR
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN. IT
GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN A NEAR CARBON COPY OF THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A VORT LOBE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE FAR OUT TIME FRAME AND TIMING
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL INSERT POPS OF 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AT 23Z WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON ITS WAT TO
TENNESSEE. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE
NOTED WITH LOW MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. SO WE WILL MENTION IFR
CONDITIONS AT SDF AND LEX AND THEN LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR BWG.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....JBS
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 050125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
925 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

ONGOING SHRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PCPN IS WITHIN SIGHT FROM SDF TO EVV. THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA ARE
LOCATED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER JUST NORTH OF BNA AND SEEM TO BE
SLIPPING TO THE SE. CURRENT TRAJECTORY LOOKS TO MISS ERN KY
ALTOGETHER WITH THE TSRA. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT CAT POPS BUT WILL
DOWNPLAY THE CHC FOR THUNDER. PCPN LOOKS TO BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR OUR
MOST NRN AND SRN COUNTIES THAT COULD SEE SOME TRAINING OF HEAVIER
CELLS. EVEN STILL...PCPN SHOULD BE WELL BELOW FFG VALUES AND WILL BE
STRETCHED OVER SEVERAL HOURS. PCPN HAS CHILLED THE AIR BELOW FCST
VALUES AND EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD SPIRAL ABEIT
SLOWER. STILL HAVE REDUCED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A COUPLE DEG FOR MOST
AREAS. DWPTS ARE HIER ALSO SO THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING FOG IF THE
RAIN WILL END. CURRENT FCST DOES NOT SEE MUCH END TO THE PCPN TONIGHT
SO HAVE LEFT THE FOG OUT AND WILL HAVE TO MET WATCH AS FOG WILL BE
DENSE IF IT FORMS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

LIGHT RAIN FROM REMANTS OF MCS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM THE MCS HAS
REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LOW
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
WEST KY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OLD MCS IN AREA WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH NO THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS KY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AS SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE LIFT ACROSS E KY OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA.
WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
GFS IS SLOWEST WITH MOVEMENT OF LOW ACROSS THE STATE...WITH LOW STILL
OVER SC KY AT 18Z SUNDAY. PREFER THE 12Z NAM WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE SREF WITH AN EXIT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH THE
QUICKER MOVEMENT FOLLOWED HERE WILL STILL NEED TO INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM LIKELY IN THE
NORTHWEST TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCE IN W KY THIS EVENING AND OVER
TN ON SUNDAY PER THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SW PART OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON AVERAGE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
RETURN OF A NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NW OR WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT THU...BUT ATTM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE OH RIVER BY LATE
FRI AND EARLY SAT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE CWA AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB
FROM THE LOWER 80S...BEFORE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK BY THU AND FRI. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 BY FRI. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MON THROUGH
WED. AT LEAST SMALL TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS MAY
OCCUR WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER OR PERHAPS EVEN THE MID
50S ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS...WHILE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

AS FOR POPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS FORECAST WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND BE EAST OF KY
AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW
CLOUD AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING SHRA EVEN INTO
THE EVENING BUT ENDING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FCST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH/DUSTY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 042312
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS AND TO ADJUST FORECAST...

EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

NOISE OF UNSTABLE AIR IS EDGING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOME
STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS
ARE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT MAY BRUSH OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FOR A TIME THIS EVENING. WATCH ADDED TO LOGAN AND SIMPSON
COUNTIES.


SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...

IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SVR STORM POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE TO OUR SW
THIS EVE...WITH OUR SWRN MOST FA HAVING THE BEST CHC OF BEING PLACED
IN A LATE DAY WATCH. DESTABILIZATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING
STARTED...THOUGH IT IS ACCELERATING NOW ACRS THE WRN TN VLY AND THE
MO/IL/KY TRI STATE REGION...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NEAR 70 AND
CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.

NRN MO LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VLYS TNGT. A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF OUR FA TNGT...WHILE
ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOP ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SYS...WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER. IT APPEARS THAT A 1 TO 2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN
IS LIKELY ACRS MOST OF OUR FA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN OUR
CENTRAL/SRN FA WHERE TSTMS SHUD BE MORE NUMEROUS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STMS SHUD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE WITH
SCT SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY TO
FOLLOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...WINDS SHUD SHIFT TO A NLY COMPONENT
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMP DAY FOR EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM
EXITS...PRECIP CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. RELATIVELY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF GENERATING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THE LEVELS THEY WERE DURING THE LAST DRY SPELL.  WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY...A
WEAK BUT ADVANTAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP GULF
MOISTURE WELL AWAY...LEAVING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN LOWER 70S RETURN TO THE PICTURE FOR
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN. IT
GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN A NEAR CARBON COPY OF THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A VORT LOBE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE FAR OUT TIME FRAME AND TIMING
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL INSERT POPS OF 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AT 23Z WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON ITS WAT TO
TENNESSEE. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IFR CIGS WILL BE
NOTED WITH LOW MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. SO WE WILL MENTION IFR
CONDITIONS AT SDF AND LEX AND THEN LATE IN THE NIGHT FOR BWG.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....JBS
AVIATION.....JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 042251
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

LIGHT RAIN FROM REMANTS OF MCS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM THE MCS HAS
REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LOW
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
WEST KY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OLD MCS IN AREA WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH NO THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS KY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AS SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE LIFT ACROSS E KY OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA.
WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
GFS IS SLOWEST WITH MOVEMENT OF LOW ACROSS THE STATE...WITH LOW STILL
OVER SC KY AT 18Z SUNDAY. PREFER THE 12Z NAM WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE SREF WITH AN EXIT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH THE
QUICKER MOVEMENT FOLLOWED HERE WILL STILL NEED TO INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM LIKELY IN THE
NORTHWEST TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCE IN W KY THIS EVENING AND OVER
TN ON SUNDAY PER THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SW PART OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON AVERAGE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
RETURN OF A NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NW OR WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT THU...BUT ATTM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE OH RIVER BY LATE
FRI AND EARLY SAT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE CWA AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB
FROM THE LOWER 80S...BEFORE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK BY THU AND FRI. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 BY FRI. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MON THROUGH
WED. AT LEAST SMALL TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS MAY
OCCUR WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER OR PERHAPS EVEN THE MID
50S ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS...WHILE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

AS FOR POPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS FORECAST WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND BE EAST OF KY
AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW
CLOUD AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING SHRA EVEN INTO
THE EVENING BUT ENDING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FCST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KPAH 042027 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SVR RISK CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SFC WARM FRONT HAS DRAPED ITSELF RIGHT ALONG THE MS RVR DOWN INTO
THE PAH AREA. SFC BASED CAPES RUNNING 1500-2500 WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY INTO SE MO. LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
TO THE NW OF THE OH RVR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRAVERSE WRN KY/FAR SE
MO THUS EVENING. MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL...BUT ANY CELL THAT TRY TO DEVIATE FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND
TRAVERSE THE WARM FRONT (IE MOVE SE AS OPPOSED TO E) COULD SPIN UP
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE MS/OH
RIVER CONFLUENCE AREA BY SUNSET. THIS LOW WILL MOVE ESE
OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH IT.

WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS SFC LOW/COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE REGION. COULD BE A
FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD BE NO
MAJOR CONCERN. CLOUDS AND NLY WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

NUMERICAL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST STATES BY MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MON/TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY...WITH
TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL...ESP AT NIGHT. MID LEVEL HIGH OUT
OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION
MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL RETURN TO DAY TIME
HEAT...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY
THU/FRI. WITH THE MID RIDGE IN CONTROL...WILL LIKELY SEE THERMAL
CAPPING ALOFT AND LITTLE OVERALL MOISTURE. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK NIL THROUGH FRI.

THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE MID
LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN A RETURN TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
SAT...SO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST
IN WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER KY. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF
AT KEVV/KOWB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT KPAH/KCGI...ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE ISLD...UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY...THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EVENING HRS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER TSRA...WITH POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS. AFTER
THE CONVECTION...COULD SEE SOME -RA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...AFTER WHICH
CIGS COULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO BLO 1000 FT. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEFFERT
AVIATION...CW

000
FXUS63 KLMK 041931
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
245 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUN)...

IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST SVR STORM POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE TO OUR SW
THIS EVE...WITH OUR SWRN MOST FA HAVING THE BEST CHC OF BEING PLACED
IN A LATE DAY WATCH. DESTABILIZATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING
STARTED...THOUGH IT IS ACCELERATING NOW ACRS THE WRN TN VLY AND THE
MO/IL/KY TRI STATE REGION...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NEAR 70 AND
CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG.

NRN MO LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VLYS TNGT. A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WEAK MID
LEVEL SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF OUR FA TNGT...WHILE
ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOP ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SYS...WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATER. IT APPEARS THAT A 1 TO 2 INCH SWATH OF RAIN
IS LIKELY ACRS MOST OF OUR FA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN OUR
CENTRAL/SRN FA WHERE TSTMS SHUD BE MORE NUMEROUS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STMS SHUD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE WITH
SCT SHOWERS PRIMARILY DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY TO
FOLLOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...WINDS SHUD SHIFT TO A NLY COMPONENT
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMP DAY FOR EARLY JULY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM
EXITS...PRECIP CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED.
OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. RELATIVELY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF GENERATING
A DECENT SHORTWAVE...AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT...LITTLE MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW THE LEVELS THEY WERE DURING THE LAST DRY SPELL.  WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK THEIR WAY UP TO AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY...A
WEAK BUT ADVANTAGEOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP GULF
MOISTURE WELL AWAY...LEAVING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN LOWER 70S RETURN TO THE PICTURE FOR
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN. IT
GENERATES A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AND DRIVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN A NEAR CARBON COPY OF THE LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A VORT LOBE OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IS SLOWER
AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE FAR OUT TIME FRAME AND TIMING
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL INSERT POPS OF 20 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TO MVFR AS A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYS OVERSPREADS OUR REGION LATE TDA AND TNGT. TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SYS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE
BWG VCNTY WHILE SHOWERS DOMINATE OVER SDF AND LEX. LOW PRES FCST TO
MOVE BETWEEN SDF AND BWG...WILL RESULT IN VEERING WINDS AT BWG
TGNT/SUN AND BACKING WINDS AT SDF. WINDS AT LEX SHUD BE SIMILAR TO
SDF.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHUD EXIT BWG AND SDF BY SUNRISE AND
LEX SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS LOW PRES EXITS TO THE EAST LEAVING CIGS
GENERALLY IN THE 010 TO 020 RANGE.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM....JBS
AVIATION.....11

000
FXUS63 KJKL 041859
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

LIGHT RAIN FROM REMANTS OF MCS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS FROM THE MCS HAS
REMAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LOW
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN KY HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
WEST KY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OLD MCS IN AREA WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
EXPECT ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH NO THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS KY TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AS SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE LIFT ACROSS E KY OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA.
WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
GFS IS SLOWEST WITH MOVEMENT OF LOW ACROSS THE STATE...WITH LOW STILL
OVER SC KY AT 18Z SUNDAY. PREFER THE 12Z NAM WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE SREF WITH AN EXIT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH THE
QUICKER MOVEMENT FOLLOWED HERE WILL STILL NEED TO INCREASE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM LIKELY IN THE
NORTHWEST TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED AT THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCE IN W KY THIS EVENING AND OVER
TN ON SUNDAY PER THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOKS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SW PART OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

INITIALLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM MEXICO
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. ON AVERAGE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE INITIAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LEADING TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
RETURN OF A NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. NW OR WNW FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT THU...BUT ATTM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ANYTHING MORE THAN POSSIBLE PERIODIC INCREASES IN CLOUDS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY AT MIDWEEK...BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ON THU AND FRI. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT TO THE OH RIVER BY LATE
FRI AND EARLY SAT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REACHING THE CWA AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AS MAX TEMPS CLIMB
FROM THE LOWER 80S...BEFORE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90 DEGREE
MARK BY THU AND FRI. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 BY FRI. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS MON THROUGH
WED. AT LEAST SMALL TO PERHAPS MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLITS MAY
OCCUR WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER OR PERHAPS EVEN THE MID
50S ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS...WHILE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE 60S.

AS FOR POPS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND BE EAST OF KY AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW CLOUD AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SBH

000
FXUS63 KLMK 041748
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE FOR (18Z TAFS)...

.NEAR TERM (THIS AFTN)...

UPDATED TO DOWNSCALE THUNDERSTORM CHCS (MAINLY NORTH) CHANGED
WORDING TO ISOLATED AS WEAKENING MCS MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS WITH
LEADING EDGE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR. ALSO
LOWERED MAX TEMPS MAINLY NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS/APPROACHING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

CLOUDS ARE THINNING WITH MORE BREAKS ACRS OUR SRN FA ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SVR STORMS WILL BE THERE LATE THIS AFTN OR MORE
LIKELY DURG THE EVE AS MID/UPR 60 DEG DEWPOINTS REACH THAT AREA. 12Z
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THERE AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER
TODAY...FIRST BRINGING A MIDDAY WARM-FRONTAL FORCED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR MAINLY THE NWRN/NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOLLOWED BY
THE LOW ITSELF AND COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. NATURE`S FIREWORKS MAY
RUIN SOME HOLIDAY PLANS UNFORTUNATELY.

SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS LOW. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL FIRST AFFECT THE CWA...MOST LIKELY
AFTER 16Z...AND THUS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...OR SHOWERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO. WENT SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z OVER THE NWRN CWA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MAY SUFFER SO LOWERED HIGHS
THERE INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.

OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL TRACK EITHER ACROSS CENTRAL KY (NAM
SOLUTION) OR CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER (GFS SOLUTION). FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST FIRST. GIVEN THE GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN
PLACE...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FURTHER WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A
LINE OR SEVERAL DIFFERENT BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH OUR SWRN CWA
GETTING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING THIS...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN OR MORE WITH THE SQUALL LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL
REACH THIS FAR EAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER
ROUGHLY 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KY ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD BY 18Z...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z. DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY REACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK SO ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH OFF TO THE EAST CLEARING
WILL OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY
MONDAY. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS TIME
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL BE IN
STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN WARM AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS AND
ALLOWS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TO MVFR AS A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYS OVERSPREADS OUR REGION LATE TDA AND TNGT. TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SYS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE
BWG VCNTY WHILE SHOWERS DOMINATE OVER SDF AND LEX. LOW PRES FCST TO
MOVE BETWEEN SDF AND BWG...WILL RESULT IN VEERING WINDS AT BWG
TGNT/SUN AND BACKING WINDS AT SDF. WINDS AT LEX SHUD BE SIMILAR TO
SDF.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHUD EXIT BWG AND SDF BY SUNRISE AND
LEX SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS LOW PRES EXITS TO THE EAST LEAVING CIGS
GENERALLY IN THE 010 TO 020 RANGE.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM....DK
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION.....11

000
FXUS63 KJKL 041742
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
142 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

REMNANTS OF MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MO...SOUTHERN
IL...AND INTO WESTERN INDIANA. EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.
HOWEVER EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING TOPS AND THERE IS A DECREASING TREND
IN LIGHTNING ACROSS IL AND MO. WHILE SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
INTO NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA BY 18 OR 19Z WILL NEED TO WAIT
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY GRIDS NO CHANGES PLANNED IN CURRENT
FORECAST.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

FOCUS ON WEATHER FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY SHIFTS TO THE APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MID
WEST BY DAWN AS CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MORPH INTO AN MCS.
REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY
IN THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALL POINT TOWARDS TONIGHT AS BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR OUR
CWA. CONSEQUENTLY INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE...CLOSER
TO MAV MOS. CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM STORMS AND ADVANCING MCS...MAINLY
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT FIRST...WILL TEND TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS THE THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A MEAN TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AT THAT TIME...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER
THE PLAINS.

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO SFC WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ALONG A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING. TREND IN MODELS IS TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...SECOND...
WEAKER WAVE WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE TN VALLEY REGION. AS A
RESULT RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FASTER SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY DAWN ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND BUILDS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK. DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND AROUND THE RIDGE AND EAST THROUGH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN US/SOUTHERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE APPALACHIANS WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MCS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE
RATHER MEAGER AND HIGHEST EARLY...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON SUN. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AND THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S. WENT
WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUN BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE WITH THE DRY TREND FOR
MON...SO DECIDED TO ELIMINATE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW TO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE MOST
DRAMATICALLY...TO ABOVE 590 DECAMETERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WED
NIGHT/THU AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 8H TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD CLIMBING TO 20 C OR
HIGHER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD. MOST RECENT 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT HAVE TRENDED UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THU AND FRI. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE MID AND PERHAPS THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND BE EAST OF KY AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW CLOUD AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/SBH
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SBH

000
FXUS63 KLMK 041550
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1150 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.NEAR TERM (THIS AFTN)...

UPDATED TO DOWNSCALE THUNDERSTORM CHCS (MAINLY NORTH) CHANGED
WORDING TO ISOLATED AS WEAKENING MCS MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS WITH
LEADING EDGE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR. ALSO
LOWERED MAX TEMPS MAINLY NORTH DUE TO CLOUDS/APPROACHING LIGHT
SHOWERS.

CLOUDS ARE THINNING WITH MORE BREAKS ACRS OUR SRN FA ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SVR STORMS WILL BE THERE LATE THIS AFTN OR MORE
LIKELY DURG THE EVE AS MID/UPR 60 DEG DEWPOINTS REACH THAT AREA. 12Z
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THERE AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER
TODAY...FIRST BRINGING A MIDDAY WARM-FRONTAL FORCED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR MAINLY THE NWRN/NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOLLOWED BY
THE LOW ITSELF AND COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. NATURE`S FIREWORKS MAY
RUIN SOME HOLIDAY PLANS UNFORTUNATELY.

SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS LOW. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL FIRST AFFECT THE CWA...MOST LIKELY
AFTER 16Z...AND THUS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...OR SHOWERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO. WENT SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z OVER THE NWRN CWA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MAY SUFFER SO LOWERED HIGHS
THERE INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.

OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL TRACK EITHER ACROSS CENTRAL KY (NAM
SOLUTION) OR CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER (GFS SOLUTION). FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST FIRST. GIVEN THE GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN
PLACE...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FURTHER WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A
LINE OR SEVERAL DIFFERENT BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH OUR SWRN CWA
GETTING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING THIS...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN OR MORE WITH THE SQUALL LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL
REACH THIS FAR EAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER
ROUGHLY 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KY ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD BY 18Z...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z. DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY REACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK SO ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH OFF TO THE EAST CLEARING
WILL OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY
MONDAY. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS TIME
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL BE IN
STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN WARM AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS AND
ALLOWS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
18Z TO 21Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GO DOWNHILL AT SDF AND BWG AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AT LEX. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO
IFR TO MVFR STATUS ONCE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. EXPECT CIGS AT AROUND
7 TO 10 KFT THIS MORNING LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KFT BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
CIGS COULD FALL TO AROUND 2 KFT BY 00Z WITH VSBYS BETWEEN 2SM AND 5
SM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM....DK
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION.....LS/11

000
FXUS63 KPAH 041522 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1022 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...ALL OF SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHERN KY
AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY NORTH OF A MARBLE HILL MO...TO VIENNA IL
TO CALHOUN KY LINE. OVER THE LAST HOUR...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA OF
ACTIVITY IS STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ALL OF THIS. SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER STORMS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY HOLDING
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...SO ADJUSTED TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY.

STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN BE REALIZED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THIS MORNINGS RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
CONVECTION IS GOING TO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THE SEVERITY WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW
MUCH OF THIS CLOUDINESS WE CAN DISSIPATE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FCST IS THE EVOLUTION OF A LINE OF
POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS CROSSING THE REGION TODAY AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WAS UNDERWAY TO OUR NW AS A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE WNWRLY FLOW CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION.
THERE MIGHT BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN PARTS OF SRN IL BEFORE
SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS SHOW A 850 MB JET KICKING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST...HELPING TO SET UP AMPLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING
THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH CAPE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WILL PROVIDE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING. WITH A SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE LOW MAY REMAIN BACKED FOR A
WHILE...CREATING A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. THE BEST
GUESS ATTM OF THE LOW TRACK IS PERHAPS FROM AROUND PERRYVILLE MO
AT 00Z...MOVING ESE INTO WRN KY BY 06Z.

JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SVR...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEAT AND ENTER THE NWRN
CORNER OF THE PAH FCST AREA BY AROUND 21Z. THIS LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z-01Z...THEN BE THROUGH THE
KY PENNYRILE REGION BY 03Z. THE FCST TIMING OF THE STORMS REVEALS
THAT RESIDENTS OF THE KY PENNYRILE REGION OUTDOORS FOR THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE PRESENCE OF
TSTM ACTIVITY.

OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE DECREASING CHANCES OF PCPN BEHIND THE
SFC LOW/FRONT...BUT NOT ZERO CHANCES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
SUBTLE IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SHWRS OR EVEN TSTMS BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SWEPT AWAY. BY
15Z SUNDAY...THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE AND CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW/HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL RULE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...THEN WE WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF A SWRN CONUS MID/UPPER
RIDGE. GENTLE RETURN FLOW WILL TEND TO RAISE DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY/TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AFTER DAY 5.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ECNTRL MISSOURI INTO
SRN ILLINOIS MOVING ESE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES SHOULD
SPREAD WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CARRIED BEST
TSRA PROBS IN ROUGHLY THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE TRICKY WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION...LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
PREV DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...CN

000
FXUS63 KJKL 041348
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
948 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

REMNANTS OF MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MO...SOUTHERN
IL...AND INTO WESTERN INDIANA. EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING SHOWER
CHANCES INTO NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.
HOWEVER EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING TOPS AND THERE IS A DECREASING TREND
IN LIGHTNING ACROSS IL AND MO. WHILE SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
INTO NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA BY 18 OR 19Z WILL NEED TO WAIT
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR
AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY GRIDS NO CHANGES PLANNED IN CURRENT
FORECAST.


THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

FOCUS ON WEATHER FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY SHIFTS TO THE APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MID
WEST BY DAWN AS CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MORPH INTO AN MCS.
REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY
IN THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALL POINT TOWARDS TONIGHT AS BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR OUR
CWA. CONSEQUENTLY INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE...CLOSER
TO MAV MOS. CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM STORMS AND ADVANCING MCS...MAINLY
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT FIRST...WILL TEND TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS THE THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A MEAN TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AT THAT TIME...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER
THE PLAINS.

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO SFC WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ALONG A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING. TREND IN MODELS IS TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...SECOND...
WEAKER WAVE WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE TN VALLEY REGION. AS A
RESULT RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FASTER SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY DAWN ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND BUILDS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK. DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND AROUND THE RIDGE AND EAST THROUGH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN US/SOUTHERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE APPALACHIANS WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MCS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE
RATHER MEAGER AND HIGHEST EARLY...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON SUN. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AND THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S. WENT
WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUN BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE WITH THE DRY TREND FOR
MON...SO DECIDED TO ELIMINATE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW TO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE MOST
DRAMATICALLY...TO ABOVE 590 DECAMETERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WED
NIGHT/THU AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 8H TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD CLIMBING TO 20 C OR
HIGHER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD. MOST RECENT 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT HAVE TRENDED UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THU AND FRI. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE MID AND PERHAPS THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

MVFR...AND OCCASIONAL IFR...FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
FOLLOWING THIS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MORE THAN A VCTS
UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...LIKELY NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECT
PREVAILING TS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR...CIGS WILL PROBABLY FALL DOWN
THERE TOO AFTER MIDNIGHT EVEN AS THE THUNDER BECOMES LESS PERVASIVE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDED GUSTINESS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SFC
LOW...AND ALSO ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT FROM A MORE WESTERLY CANT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/SBH
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KJKL 041210 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

FOCUS ON WEATHER FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY SHIFTS TO THE APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MID
WEST BY DAWN AS CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MORPH INTO AN MCS.
REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY
IN THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALL POINT TOWARDS TONIGHT AS BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR OUR
CWA. CONSEQUENTLY INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE...CLOSER
TO MAV MOS. CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM STORMS AND ADVANCING MCS...MAINLY
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT FIRST...WILL TEND TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS THE THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A MEAN TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AT THAT TIME...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER
THE PLAINS.

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO SFC WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ALONG A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING. TREND IN MODELS IS TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...SECOND...
WEAKER WAVE WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE TN VALLEY REGION. AS A
RESULT RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FASTER SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY DAWN ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND BUILDS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK. DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND AROUND THE RIDGE AND EAST THROUGH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN US/SOUTHERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE APPALACHIANS WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MCS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE
RATHER MEAGER AND HIGHEST EARLY...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON SUN. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AND THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S. WENT
WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUN BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE WITH THE DRY TREND FOR
MON...SO DECIDED TO ELIMINATE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW TO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE MOST
DRAMATICALLY...TO ABOVE 590 DECAMETERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WED
NIGHT/THU AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 8H TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD CLIMBING TO 20 C OR
HIGHER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD. MOST RECENT 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT HAVE TRENDED UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THU AND FRI. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE MID AND PERHAPS THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

MVFR...AND OCCASIONAL IFR...FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
FOLLOWING THIS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MORE THAN A VCTS
UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...LIKELY NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECT
PREVAILING TS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR...CIGS WILL PROBABLY FALL DOWN
THERE TOO AFTER MIDNIGHT EVEN AS THE THUNDER BECOMES LESS PERVASIVE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH ADDED GUSTINESS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SFC
LOW...AND ALSO ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT FROM A MORE WESTERLY CANT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 041145
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
740 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE FOR (12Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER
TODAY...FIRST BRINGING A MIDDAY WARM-FRONTAL FORCED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR MAINLY THE NWRN/NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOLLOWED BY
THE LOW ITSELF AND COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. NATURE`S FIREWORKS MAY
RUIN SOME HOLIDAY PLANS UNFORTUNATELY.

SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS LOW. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL FIRST AFFECT THE CWA...MOST LIKELY
AFTER 16Z...AND THUS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...OR SHOWERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO. WENT SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z OVER THE NWRN CWA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MAY SUFFER SO LOWERED HIGHS
THERE INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.

OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL TRACK EITHER ACROSS CENTRAL KY (NAM
SOLUTION) OR CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER (GFS SOLUTION). FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST FIRST. GIVEN THE GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN
PLACE...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FURTHER WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A
LINE OR SEVERAL DIFFERENT BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH OUR SWRN CWA
GETTING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING THIS...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN OR MORE WITH THE SQUALL LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL
REACH THIS FAR EAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER
ROUGHLY 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KY ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD BY 18Z...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z. DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY REACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK SO ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH OFF TO THE EAST CLEARING
WILL OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY
MONDAY. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS TIME
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL BE IN
STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN WARM AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS AND
ALLOWS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
18Z TO 21Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GO DOWNHILL AT SDF AND BWG AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AT LEX. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO
IFR TO MVFR STATUS ONCE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. EXPECT CIGS AT AROUND
7 TO 10 KFT THIS MORNING LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KFT BY MIDDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
CIGS COULD FALL TO AROUND 2 KFT BY 00Z WITH VSBYS BETWEEN 2SM AND 5
SM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION.....LS/11

000
FXUS63 KPAH 041126
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FCST IS THE EVOLUTION OF A LINE OF
POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS CROSSING THE REGION TODAY AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WAS UNDERWAY TO OUR NW AS A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE WNWRLY FLOW CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION.
THERE MIGHT BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN PARTS OF SRN IL BEFORE
SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS SHOW A 850 MB JET KICKING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST...HELPING TO SET UP AMPLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING
THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH CAPE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WILL PROVIDE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING. WITH A SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE LOW MAY REMAIN BACKED FOR A
WHILE...CREATING A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. THE BEST
GUESS ATTM OF THE LOW TRACK IS PERHAPS FROM AROUND PERRYVILLE MO
AT 00Z...MOVING ESE INTO WRN KY BY 06Z.

JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SVR...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEAT AND ENTER THE NWRN
CORNER OF THE PAH FCST AREA BY AROUND 21Z. THIS LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z-01Z...THEN BE THROUGH THE
KY PENNYRILE REGION BY 03Z. THE FCST TIMING OF THE STORMS REVEALS
THAT RESIDENTS OF THE KY PENNYRILE REGION OUTDOORS FOR THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE PRESENCE OF
TSTM ACTIVITY.

OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE DECREASING CHANCES OF PCPN BEHIND THE
SFC LOW/FRONT...BUT NOT ZERO CHANCES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
SUBTLE IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SHWRS OR EVEN TSTMS BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SWEPT AWAY. BY
15Z SUNDAY...THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE AND CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW/HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL RULE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...THEN WE WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF A SWRN CONUS MID/UPPER
RIDGE. GENTLE RETURN FLOW WILL TEND TO RAISE DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY/TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AFTER DAY 5.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ECNTRL MISSOURI INTO
SRN ILLINOIS MOVING ESE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES SHOULD SPREAD
WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CARRIED BEST TSRA PROBS
IN ROUGHLY THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY
WITH A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...LOW CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...CN

000
FXUS63 KPAH 040845
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
345 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FCST IS THE EVOLUTION OF A LINE OF
POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS CROSSING THE REGION TODAY AND HOW IT WILL
AFFECT OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.

WARM ADVECTION PCPN WAS UNDERWAY TO OUR NW AS A MID LEVEL SHRTWV
EMBEDDED IN THE WNWRLY FLOW CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION.
THERE MIGHT BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN PARTS OF SRN IL BEFORE
SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS SHOW A 850 MB JET KICKING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST...HELPING TO SET UP AMPLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING
THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH CAPE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WILL PROVIDE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR TSTMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING. WITH A SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE LOW MAY REMAIN BACKED FOR A
WHILE...CREATING A POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. THE BEST
GUESS ATTM OF THE LOW TRACK IS PERHAPS FROM AROUND PERRYVILLE MO
AT 00Z...MOVING ESE INTO WRN KY BY 06Z.

JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SVR...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEAT AND ENTER THE NWRN
CORNER OF THE PAH FCST AREA BY AROUND 21Z. THIS LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z-01Z...THEN BE THROUGH THE
KY PENNYRILE REGION BY 03Z. THE FCST TIMING OF THE STORMS REVEALS
THAT RESIDENTS OF THE KY PENNYRILE REGION OUTDOORS FOR THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE PRESENCE OF
TSTM ACTIVITY.

OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE DECREASING CHANCES OF PCPN BEHIND THE
SFC LOW/FRONT...BUT NOT ZERO CHANCES. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
SUBTLE IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SHWRS OR EVEN TSTMS BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SWEPT AWAY. BY
15Z SUNDAY...THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE PCPN FREE AND CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW/HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL RULE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...THEN WE WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE OF A SWRN CONUS MID/UPPER
RIDGE. GENTLE RETURN FLOW WILL TEND TO RAISE DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY/TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AFTER DAY 5.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE WAS TO ADD A
SHORT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
20-24Z TIME FRAME FOR THE KCGI AND KPAH TAFS. FOR THE KEVV/KOWB
TAF SITES...ADDED A SIMILAR MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
INCLUDED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS THROUGH 03Z
SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISIBILITIES WERE
ADDED TO THE KEVV/KOWB TAF SITES FOR POST-FRONTAL RAIN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...CN

000
FXUS63 KJKL 040725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED

FOCUS ON WEATHER FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY SHIFTS TO THE APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MID
WEST BY DAWN AS CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO MORPH INTO AN MCS.
REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY INTO THE
CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN...MAINLY
IN THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALL POINT TOWARDS TONIGHT AS BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR OUR
CWA. CONSEQUENTLY INCREASED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE...CLOSER
TO MAV MOS. CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM STORMS AND ADVANCING MCS...MAINLY
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT FIRST...WILL TEND TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS THE THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ADVANCE INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A MEAN TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AT THAT TIME...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER
THE PLAINS.

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO SFC WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ALONG A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING. TREND IN MODELS IS TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...SECOND...
WEAKER WAVE WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH IN THE TN VALLEY REGION. AS A
RESULT RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FASTER SUNDAY NIGHT...ENDING BY DAWN ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND BUILDS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK. DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND AROUND THE RIDGE AND EAST THROUGH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN US/SOUTHERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE APPALACHIANS WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MCS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE
RATHER MEAGER AND HIGHEST EARLY...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON SUN. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AND THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S. WENT
WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUN BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE WITH THE DRY TREND FOR
MON...SO DECIDED TO ELIMINATE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW TO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE MOST
DRAMATICALLY...TO ABOVE 590 DECAMETERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WED
NIGHT/THU AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 8H TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD CLIMBING TO 20 C OR
HIGHER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD. MOST RECENT 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT HAVE TRENDED UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THU AND FRI. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE MID AND PERHAPS THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

A SMATTERING OF MAINLY MID LEVEL AC WILL KEEP THE SKIES FROM BEING
SKC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF THE FOG FORMATION THROUGH DAWN IN THE FACE OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MAINLY MVRF FOG AROUND IN THE MORE
VALLEY LIKE LOCATIONS OF SME AND LOZ UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS AT JKL. DURING SATURDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY MORE THAN A VCTS UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE MAIN
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
WITH THIS...EXPECT PREVAILING TS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR...CIGS WILL
PROBABLY FALL DOWN THERE TOO BUT NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO THE NEXT TAF
PERIOD...POST MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO MID MORNING
SATURDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTINESS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...AND ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SBH/RAY
LONG TERM...JP/RAY
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 040703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER
TODAY...FIRST BRINGING A MIDDAY WARM-FRONTAL FORCED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR MAINLY THE NWRN/NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOLLOWED BY
THE LOW ITSELF AND COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. NATURE`S FIREWORKS MAY
RUIN SOME HOLIDAY PLANS UNFORTUNATELY.

SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN PLAINS LOW. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL FIRST AFFECT THE CWA...MOST LIKELY
AFTER 16Z...AND THUS SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...OR SHOWERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO. WENT SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z OVER THE NWRN CWA.
AS A RESULT OF THE CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST MAY SUFFER SO LOWERED HIGHS
THERE INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S.

OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL TRACK EITHER ACROSS CENTRAL KY (NAM
SOLUTION) OR CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER (GFS SOLUTION). FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST FIRST. GIVEN THE GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN
PLACE...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
FURTHER WEST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A
LINE OR SEVERAL DIFFERENT BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH OUR SWRN CWA
GETTING THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING THIS...ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN OR MORE WITH THE SQUALL LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL
REACH THIS FAR EAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NW TO SE AFTER
ROUGHLY 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS KY ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD BY 18Z...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z. DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY REACHING THE 80
DEGREE MARK SO ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.

AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PUSH OFF TO THE EAST CLEARING
WILL OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY
MONDAY. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON TUESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS TIME
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL BE IN
STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN WARM AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY HUMID AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS AND
ALLOWS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

OTHER THAN LIGHT FOG CAUSING MVFR VSBYS AT BWG FROM 9-12Z THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER BY 18Z LATER TODAY...BRINGING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO AFFECT SDF AND MAYBE LEX BETWEEN
16-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z
SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW TRAVELS RIGHT
OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING AMPLE RAIN FROM SHRA/TSRA...WITH
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS...PROBABLY IN THE MVFR-SOMETIMES IFR
CATEGORY. BWG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS...WHICH COULD CAUSE GUSTS OVER 40 KTS MOST LIKELY AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A PROBLEM DURING THE LAST 6-12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S AND
SE...AND 2-3KFT WINDS OUT OF THE SW FROM 35-50 KTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KIRKPATRICK
LONG TERM....JBS
AVIATION.....AL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 040650 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE CU/SC FIELD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE
CU/SC WILL DISSIPATE AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN. THE FOCUS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY SHIFTS TO THE APPROACHING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. AT 12Z SATURDAY
EXPECT MCS TO BE OVER THE IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AREA. THIS WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS...THE 00Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF...AND THE 09Z SREF ALL POINT TOWARDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE GONE LIKELY FOR
THIS PERIOD. CLOUDINESS FROM THE ADVANCING MCS WILL TEND TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW ADVANCE INTO
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A MEAN TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AT THAT TIME...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER
THE PLAINS.

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO SFC WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEASTERN TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SUN EVENING ONCE THE LOW PASSES WITH ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FURTHER SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD OCCUR
LATE SUN NIGHT/MON OVER THE TN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AND BUILDS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK. DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND AROUND THE RIDGE AND EAST THROUGH THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN US/SOUTHERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE APPALACHIANS WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

MCS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC WAVE SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCES DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES. INSTABILITY IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE RATHER MEAGER
AND HIGHEST EARLY...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ON SUN. AT THIS POINT KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER FOR SUN.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WENT WITH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR SUN AND THEN HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS AS LATE AS
EARLY MON IN THE FAR SOUTH. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
DRY TREND FOR MON...SO TRENDED DOWN...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND WAVE
COULD AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE TN BORDER ON MON.

THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW TO NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT...BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE MOST
DRAMATICALLY...TO ABOVE 590 DECAMETERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SETTLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WED
NIGHT/THU AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SFC DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 8H TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD CLIMBING TO 20 C OR
HIGHER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD. MOST RECENT 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT HAVE TRENDED UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THU AND FRI. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S...THOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE MID AND PERHAPS THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

A SMATTERING OF MAINLY MID LEVEL AC WILL KEEP THE SKIES FROM BEING
SKC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF THE FOG FORMATION THROUGH DAWN IN THE FACE OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MAINLY MVRF FOG AROUND IN THE MORE
VALLEY LIKE LOCATIONS OF SME AND LOZ UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS AT JKL. DURING SATURDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY MORE THAN A VCTS UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE MAIN
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
WITH THIS...EXPECT PREVAILING TS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR...CIGS WILL
PROBABLY FALL DOWN THERE TOO BUT NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO THE NEXT TAF
PERIOD...POST MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO MID MORNING
SATURDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTINESS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...AND ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 040511
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
111 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE FOR 06Z TAFS...

&&

.SHORT TERM (TNGT AND SAT)...

WIDESPREAD CU/SC FIELD ACRS THE REGION ATTM WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVE...LEAVING CLR OR MOSTLY CLR SKIES FOR A WHILE BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INVADE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYS. TEMPS SHUD
SETTLE INTO THE 60-65 DEG RANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SDF A BIT
HIER AND LEX PERHAPS A BIT COOLER WITH CLDS SLOWER TO REACH THAT
AREA.

SPC IS FCSTG SOME LATE DAY WX FIREWORKS FOR PART OF OUR REGION SAT.
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING BY SUNRISE
SAT...LIKELY CENTERED OVER SE IA/NE MO/WRN IL. THIS SYS SHUD DROP
ESE SAT AND PRIMARILY AFFECT THE NRN HALF OF OUR FA AS LOW PRES
MOVES ACRS MO AND A FRONT TRAILS SWWD FROM THE LOW. LIFT/FORCING FOR
THIS ACTIVITY SHUD BE SUPPLIED BY SEWD MOVG UPPER LEVEL
TROF/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM FRONT EAST OF THE LOW. SRN
PARTS OF OUR FA COULD GO MOST OF THE DAY DRY...RAIN CHCS WILL BE
LESS THERE.

BY LATE AFTN/EVE...SHORT TERM MODELS/LOCAL WRF INDICATE A POTENTIAL
LINEAR MCS DEVELOPING FROM SRN INDIANA INTO WKY...ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAILING CDFNT. VERTICAL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SFC WINDS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS...MAINLY ACRS THE SRN HALF OF OUR
FA...WHERE INSTABILITY SHUD BE GREATEST. HAIL POTENTIAL THERE AS
WELL WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SUPERCELLS COULD BE EMBEDDED IN
THE MCS (SHOWING TURNING WINDS/FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR WEAK
ROTATION).

SEVERE STM CHCS WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD DURG THE
DAY. IF CAPES CAN REACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE DAY...SVR STMS WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY...MAINLY ACRS OUR SWRN FA FROM ABOUT 22Z SAT TO 02Z SUN.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THIS PERIOD OF FORECAST IS FRONT-END LOADED AS FAR AS ACTIVE WEATHER
IS CONCERNED.  ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AT START OF TIME FRAME IN AND
UPSTREAM OF CWA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BULK
OF THIS IN THE EVENING AS MOTHER NATURE SUPPLIES NATURAL FIREWORKS
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.  THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND EXIT BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS TO FOLLOW IN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THREAT OF SEVERE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SQUALL LINE WILL PRIMARILY BE
DAMAGING WINDS.

IN WAKE OF SATURDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS SUNDAY...A
COUPLE OF MILD DAYS WILL BUFFER THE GRADUAL WARM UP AND JUICE-UP
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 90 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS TOPPING 70 DEGREES BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

OTHER THAN LIGHT FOG CAUSING MVFR VSBYS AT BWG FROM 9-12Z THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD AS ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER BY 18Z LATER TODAY...BRINGING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS LOOKS TO AFFECT SDF AND MAYBE LEX BETWEEN
16-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z
SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW TRAVELS RIGHT
OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING AMPLE RAIN FROM SHRA/TSRA...WITH
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS...PROBABLY IN THE MVFR-SOMETIMES IFR
CATEGORY. BWG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS...WHICH COULD CAUSE GUSTS OVER 40 KTS MOST LIKELY AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY.

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A PROBLEM DURING THE LAST 6-12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S AND
SE...AND 2-3KFT WINDS OUT OF THE SW FROM 35-50 KTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KIRKPATRICK
LONG TERM....JBS
AVIATION.....AL

000
FXUS63 KPAH 040507 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1207 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE...
DISCUSSION FOR 06Z SATURDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE 00Z ISSUANCE WAS TO ADD A
SHORT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
20-24Z TIME FRAME FOR THE KCGI AND KPAH TAFS. FOR THE KEVV/KOWB
TAF SITES...ADDED A SIMILAR MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
INCLUDED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS THROUGH 03Z
SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...LIFR CEILINGS/IFR VISILIBILITIES WERE
ADDED TO THE KEVV/KOWB TAF SITES FOR POST-FRONTAL RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z SATURDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH THE 00Z SATURDAY FORECAST
ISSUANCE. THROUGH 12Z /7AM CDT/ SATURDAY...KEEP THE MENTION OF
VFR CEILINGS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AT ALL TAF SITES AS
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PRODUCES CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 8-12KFT
OVERNIGHT. BEYOND 12Z SATURDAY...A SCATTERED LOW DECK BETWEEN
2.5-3.0KFT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER VFR CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE
7KFT AGL. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION AFTER 20Z /3 PM CDT/ SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...ERRED WITH HIGHER CEILINGS OVER KEVV/KOWB AND IFR CEILINGS
FOR KCGI/KPAH...SINCE THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL LIKELY REVISIT THESE FORECASTS FOR
THE 06Z SATURDAY TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...
THIS FCST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT JUST IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF
THE 4TH OF JULY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BROAD WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITHIN THIS RATHER STRONG FLOW FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT.
IT NOW LOOKS AS THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE FRONT UP NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY SAT SOUTH OF THE MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...AND THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE PRIMED LATER IN THE DAY AND
SAT EVENING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW SINKING
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID LVL (H50) SHORT WAVE.

LI VALUES CLOSE TO -6 AND CAPES UP TO 2500 J/K AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 50
KTS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISK. IN ADDITION...THERE
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C
LAYER...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL RISK. THROW IN THE SURFACE
LOW/FRONT AND ANY LEFTOVER MESO BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ALSO. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT NW OF THE OH RVR SAT AROUND 21Z WOULD
LIKELY TRANSLATE SOUTH INTO WRN KY AND SE MO SAT EVENING...JUST IN
TIME FOR FIREWORK FESTIVITIES IN SOME AREAS.

NOT MUCH TO MENTION AFTER SAT NIGHT...AS LATEST MED RANGE MODELS
NOW AGREE ON A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE H50
NW FLOW REGIME. WILL START OFF AT OR A TAD BELOW NORMAL
SUN/MON BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT TO OUR
WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEK...LEADING TO INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY
THU/FRI TIME FRAME. LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP UNDER THIS REGIME.

AVIATION...
12Z MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS/STORMS POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
FROM TAFS THRU 18Z TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH IT COULD FLIRT WITH KEVV/KOWB
TOWARD EXPIRATION TIME. SCT-BKN040-050 DECK THIS AFTERNOON IS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE W/SUNSET...BUT UPSTREAM BAND
OF MID CLOUDS COULD IMPACT MAINLY KCGI/KPAH THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL CIGS. LATE TONIGHT SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE
SOME PATCHY BR IN FAVORABLE LOCALES WILL PRECEDE INCREASING
MOISTURE DOWN/THRU THE COLUMN TOMORROW...AS WINDS BECOME SLY AND
GUSTY WEST/TRANSLATING EAST THRU THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SMITH