[top]
000
FXUS64 KLCH 040853
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A BIG TRANSITION IS ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH TEMPS
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS CEN LA AND E TX. NOT GOING WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY DUE TO DEWPOINTS STAYING LOW ENOUGH WHERE HEAT
INDICES SHOULD ONLY GET ABOVE 105 FOR MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY.
SUNDAY BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO A WET WEEK AHEAD. WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION...BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO THAT...THREW IN LOW POPS FOR CEN LA AND E TX
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...BY MONDAY...EVERYTHING IS POINTING AT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...THANKS TO THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES. EARLY THINKING
IS WE WILL SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PATTERN TO SEE IF A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT CAN DEVELOP.
THIS SCENARIO BASICALLY REPEATS ITSELF TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
THURSDAY. HARD TO PICK OUT SPECIFIC TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
...COULD SEE SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST...TRANSITIONING
TO I-10 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING...AND NORTH OF HWY 190 IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS CARRYING 40-50 POPS...BUT MAY BE
BUMPING THIS UP TO 60-70 IF WET PATTERN CONTINUES.
AS FOR TEMPS MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...WILL SEE A LITTLE BREAK FROM THE
HEAT...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 ALONG I-10 AND LOWER
90S NORTH THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 96 78 94 77 92 / 0 0 10 10 30
KBPT 96 78 94 78 92 / 0 0 10 10 30
KAEX 101 75 97 74 93 / 0 0 20 20 40
KLFT 98 78 96 77 92 / 0 0 10 10 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLIX 040835
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
...ANOTHER HOT DAY EXPECTED FOR YOUR INDEPENDENCE DAY
CELEBRATIONS...
.SHORT TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE WE STILL HAVE A FEW MORE DAYS OF HOT
CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA BUT GOOD NEWS IS WE SHOULD BE SEEING A
PATTERN SHIFT FOR OUR AREA WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS AND MUCH
BETTER RAIN CHANCES.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET AND HOT
WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE STILL DOMINATING THE REGION. TEMPS OVERNIGHT
HAVE BEEN JUST UNBEARABLE WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL ABV 80 DEGREES
BY 8Z. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS STILL IN THE 90S. YOUR
INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL ALREADY START OFF HOT BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN
COMES UP TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB QUICKLY. H85 TEMPS WILL STILL BE
AROUND 21C SO THERE IS NO REASON WE SHOULDN`T SEE MID TO UPPER 90S
WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN AND THIS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICIES TO RANGE
FROM 105-110 AGAIN THIS AFTN. WITH THIS WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO
HAVE ANOTHER HEAT ADV OUT. AS FOR CONVECTION...MID LVL TEMPS ROSE
QUITE A BIT YESTERDAY AFTN FROM -8 TO -5C AND WITH THAT MUCH WARMING
CONVECTION HAD A MUCH HARDER TIME YESTERDAY. WELL MID LVL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND -5C AND WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
CONVECTION SHOULD BE EVEN HARDER TO COME BY TODAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUN WE WILL START TO SEE THE RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN. LL TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER SO HIGHS MAY ONLY GET INTO THE
MID 90S. IN ADDITION TO THAT WITH THE RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE(PWS 1.75-2") ISLTD TO SCT
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE SUN AFTN. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ACTUALLY START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE FURTHER ERODES AND
THE FIRST OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERAL SUBTLE IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...SURPRISINGLY THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT B/T THE GFS
AND ECMWF WITH THE EXTENDED FCST. BOTH MDLS SHOW THE RIDGE
COMPLETELY BREAKING DOWN OVER OUR AREA AND BEING REPLACED BY A WEAK
TROUGH. THE MDLS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING THIS SHIFT FROM THE HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY TO MORE OF A NORMAL TEMP AND ABV NORMAL POP FCST FOR A
FEW DAYS NOW SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AND WE SHOULD FINALLY BREAK
OUT OF THIS HEAT AND START TO RELIEVE SOME OF THE DROUGHT COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE FURTHER ERODES AND IS DISPLACED TO THE WE WILL START TO
SEE A FEW IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BY MID WEEK A
WEAKNESS/TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY START TO DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WITH THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF AND INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL REALLY INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST MONTH. MOISTURE WILL BE
IN SURPLUS WITH PWS AT OR EVEN ABV 2" THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN ABUNDANCE WITH H85 THETA E VALUES RANGING
FROM 335-345K. WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE INTO WILL ONLY TAKE VERY
SUBTLE INFLUENCES TO HELP DEVELOP CONVECTION AND THAT WILL ACTUALLY
BE THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FCST. TIMING OR EVEN FINDING THE
LITTLE SUBTLE FEATURES IS HARD ENOUGH A DAY TO EVEN A FEW HOURS OUT
BUT 3 TO 7 DAYS OUT IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE. WITH THAT I WILL NOT
GET TO CUTE WITH TIMING AND JUST MAINLY SHOW SCT CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FCST BUT THERE WILL OF COURSE BE BREAKS IN
THE CONVECTION.
AS FOR TEMPS LL TEMPS WILL COOL NICELY(H85 TEMPS DOWN FROM 21-22C TO
MORE LIKE 18-19C). THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTN HIGHS BEING QUITE A BIT
COOLER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS WILL BE A VERY
WELCOME SITE ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES LIKE BATON ROUGE AND MCCOMB WHICH
BY MON WILL NOT HAVE SEEN AFTN HIGHS BELOW 95 DEGREES IN 20 DAYS.
MORNING LOWS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM END THOUGH THANKS TO ALL OF
THE MOISTURE EXPECTED.
AS FOR DEVIATIONS TO GUI THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO
ABV MEX FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ON A FEW DAYS BUT I HAVE BASICALLY
JUST STUCK WITH THE MEX POPS VALUES. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL EXTENT WILL BE EXTREMELY SMALL...AND WILL NOT
BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. ANY HZ/BR WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE...RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS BEST POSSIBILITY WOULD BE
GPT...BUT THREAT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION YET. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL AVIATION RESTRICTIONS MAY START CREEPING INTO THE
FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. 35
&&
.MARINE...
A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHERN LA
COASTAL PARISHES...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AFTERNOONS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 99 76 96 75 / 10 10 20 30
BTR 98 78 95 77 / 0 0 10 30
MSY 96 79 95 78 / 10 10 10 20
GPT 96 79 93 76 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION:MARINE: 35
000
FXUS64 KLCH 040450
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT AVIATION FCST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACRS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION IN TAFS. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT SEEING MUCH HOPE AS
FAR AS DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LATE NIGHT SHOWERS SO INHERITED LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POP LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. ALL ELSE IN THE GRIDS/ZONES
LOOK GOOD AS WELL SO NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM FOR THIS EVENING.
HAVE A HAPPY AND SAFE 4TH!
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
KLCH RADAR INDICATING SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FROM NEAR CARENCRO AND LAFAYETTE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
KAPLAN. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA. INCLUDED
VCSH GROUP AT KAEX...AND VCTS AT KLFT AND KARA THROUGH 02-03Z AS
THIS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...AROUND 8KT OR LESS...EITHER
VARIABLE OR SOUTHWESTERLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A RATHER PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. BOUNDARY MAINLY DEWPOINT IN NATURE AND HAS
LINGERED SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. ALOFT...500 MILLIBAR HIGH
IS NOW LOCATED OVER MID TEXAS WITH A DEEP TROF ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
HAS PROVEN HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. KICKER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FRONT TO THE NORTH FOR INITIATION WITH OVERALL CELL
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY
EXPECTING SOME SEA BREEZE INITIATION. WELCOME TO SEE ANY RAINS BUT
MAY SEE A FEW GO SEVERE WITH PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MORE
INVERTED-V TYPE ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OVERALL WILL BE DRY.
AREA WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TEXAS HIGH
PUTTING AN EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE UMBRELLA OVER THE REGION WHILE
NORTHERN SURFACE FRONT AND TRIGGER WILL FINALLY RETREAT NORTHEAST.
ONLY HOPE FOR CONVECTION THEN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SEABREEZE
BUT EXTENT OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THIS. THUS
WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS IN GRIDS.
OTHERWISE WILL SEE HOT AND HUMID DAYS...AS WELL AS WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHTS. AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT
WITH OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MAIN WEATHER STORY THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEW WORK-WEEK. LONGER TERM
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE AS A SERIES OF
IMPULSES TOP AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS
LOOKING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW OVER MID-TEXAS BREAKS
DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 78 98 78 96 79 / 30 10 10 10 10
KBPT 77 98 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 75 101 75 98 76 / 20 10 10 10 20
KLFT 79 98 79 97 79 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 040443
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES THROUGH INDEPENDANCE DAY. SOME BKN050
CEILINGS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY BUT AS
FAR AS TS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REMOVE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE
NOCTURNAL CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
22/TD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
SYNOPTIC TRENDS AND 00Z SOUNDING /SEE DISCUSSION BELOW/ SHOW A
MUCH DIFFERENT PICTURE THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHEN OUR AREA WAS IN THE
MIDDLE OF AN ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALOFT / NVA PATTERN IS SUPPRESSING THE DEEP CONVECTION AND KEEPING
COVERAGE WAY DOWN. ENERGY HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE TO A FEW
STORMS WHICH HAVE TRIED TO PULSE TO SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER...
UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE AVOIDED MOST OF THE
POPULATED AREAS. HAVE LOWERED THE POP TO A GENEROUS 20 PERCENT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED TO
10 PERCENT OR LESS IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. BECAUSE OF
THE LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE HOT CONDITIONS AND
HIGH HEAT INDICES CONTINUE THIS EVENING. HAVE ALLOWED THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM...BUT LEFT A CAUTION STATEMENT IN PLACE
TO ADVISE OF RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT INDICES THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.
AVIATION...
LEFT A CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR THE ISOLATED TSRA WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF KMSY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER BELOW 5000 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WARMED FROM -8C AT 7 AM AND 1 PM TODAY TO -5C
ON THE MOST RECENT SOUNDING AT 7 PM. THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
JUST BELOW 500 MB COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR ABOVE IT HAVE KEPT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LOWER...AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
22/TD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM... WILL BE MAINTAINING THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THOUGH RADAR
COVERAGE IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL HAVE AMPLE TIME
FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE AND
SEA BREEZE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS...50 KT AT STORM
TOP HEIGHTS AND A COOL -8C MID-LEVEL. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
IS STATUS QUO. AS HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE
SATURDAY...MAY HOLD TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS MARGINAL BUT HOT AND HUMID IS TO BE
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PERIODS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF TRENDING
TOWARDS NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
24/RR
MARINE...
A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHERN LA
COASTAL PARISHES...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOSTLY LAND AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS IN THE TIDAL LAKES AND NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AFTERNOONS
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES.
MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 99 76 97 / 10 20 10 20
BTR 76 99 77 97 / 10 20 10 20
MSY 80 97 78 95 / 10 20 10 20
GPT 78 96 79 94 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSHV 040235
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING...
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THAT IN MIND...I HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME PASSING FILAMENTS OF CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SWELTERING DAY...EVEN
FOR THIS NATIVE SOUTHERNER. GOOD NEWS IS THAT A BIT OF RELIEF STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
WILL INCREASE FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MEANTIME...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FOURTH
OF JULY EVENING.
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET. AN
UPDATED SUITE OF TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /21/
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY ISLTD DIURNAL CONVECTION DISSIPATED BEFORE SUNSET. MOSTLY VFR
SKC CONDITONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MID/UPPER CLOUDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGIN TO INCREASE...BUT TOO LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED TO
BRING ANY LOW CLOUDS. HOT TEMPS AND DRY GROUND MOSTLY PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE DEW POINTS ON RISE...AND AS NO RAIN OCCURRED
NEAR TAF SITES...NO FOG IN FCST. ANOTHER DAY OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AS SATELLITE CLEARLY REVEALS UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CWA...NO CB REMARKS INCLUDED IN TAFS.
/VII/
&&
.CLIMATE...
BELOW ARE SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND THE YEAR THEY WERE
SET.
SHREVEPORT -- 102 /1875/
TEXARKANA -- 103 /1933/
DE QUEEN -- 103 /1978/
EL DORADO -- 103 /1977/
MONROE -- 102 /1933/
TYLER -- 104 /1931/
LONGVIEW -- 105 /1933/
LUFKIN -- 105 /1933/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 103 75 92 73 / 0 10 10 30 30
MLU 73 102 75 96 73 / 0 10 10 30 50
DEQ 72 100 75 85 70 / 0 10 30 50 50
TXK 74 101 75 87 73 / 0 10 20 40 30
ELD 73 101 74 89 71 / 0 10 20 30 40
TYR 76 103 76 92 73 / 0 10 10 30 30
GGG 76 103 76 92 73 / 0 10 10 30 30
LFK 75 103 76 100 75 / 0 10 10 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECASTER...D. BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER...PO
000
FXUS64 KLIX 040215 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
915 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REMOVE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE
NOCTURNAL CONVERGENCE OFFSHORE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
.UPDATE...
SYNOPTIC TRENDS AND 00Z SOUNDING /SEE DISCUSSION BELOW/ SHOW A
MUCH DIFFERENT PICTURE THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHEN OUR AREA WAS IN THE
MIDDLE OF AN ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALOFT / NVA PATTERN IS SUPPRESSING THE DEEP CONVECTION AND KEEPING
COVERAGE WAY DOWN. ENERGY HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE TO A FEW
STORMS WHICH HAVE TRIED TO PULSE TO SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER...
UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE AVOIDED MOST OF THE
POPULATED AREAS. HAVE LOWERED THE POP TO A GENEROUS 20 PERCENT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED TO
10 PERCENT OR LESS IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. BECAUSE OF
THE LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE HOT CONDITIONS AND
HIGH HEAT INDICES CONTINUE THIS EVENING. HAVE ALLOWED THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM...BUT LEFT A CAUTION STATEMENT IN PLACE
TO ADVISE OF RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT INDICES THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...
LEFT A CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR THE ISOLATED TSRA WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF KMSY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER BELOW 5000 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.
&&
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WARMED FROM -8C AT 7 AM AND 1 PM TODAY TO -5C
ON THE MOST RECENT SOUNDING AT 7 PM. THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
JUST BELOW 500 MB COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR ABOVE IT HAVE KEPT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LOWER...AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM... WILL BE MAINTAINING THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THOUGH RADAR
COVERAGE IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL HAVE AMPLE TIME
FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE AND
SEA BREEZE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS...50 KT AT STORM
TOP HEIGHTS AND A COOL -8C MID-LEVEL. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
IS STATUS QUO. AS HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE
SATURDAY...MAY HOLD TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS MARGINAL BUT HOT AND HUMID IS TO BE
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PERIODS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF TRENDING
TOWARDS NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
24/RR
&&
.MARINE...
A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHERN LA
COASTAL PARISHES...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOSTLY LAND AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS IN THE TIDAL LAKES AND NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AFTERNOONS
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES.
MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 99 76 97 / 10 20 10 20
BTR 76 99 77 97 / 10 20 10 20
MSY 80 97 78 95 / 10 20 10 20
GPT 78 96 79 94 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 040202
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
902 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT SEEING MUCH HOPE AS
FAR AS DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LATE NIGHT SHOWERS SO INHERITED LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POP LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. ALL ELSE IN THE GRIDS/ZONES
LOOK GOOD AS WELL SO NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM FOR THIS EVENING.
HAVE A HAPPY AND SAFE 4TH!
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
KLCH RADAR INDICATING SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FROM NEAR CARENCRO AND LAFAYETTE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
KAPLAN. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA. INCLUDED
VCSH GROUP AT KAEX...AND VCTS AT KLFT AND KARA THROUGH 02-03Z AS
THIS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...AROUND 8KT OR LESS...EITHER
VARIABLE OR SOUTHWESTERLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A RATHER PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. BOUNDARY MAINLY DEWPOINT IN NATURE AND HAS
LINGERED SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. ALOFT...500 MILLIBAR HIGH
IS NOW LOCATED OVER MID TEXAS WITH A DEEP TROF ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
HAS PROVEN HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. KICKER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FRONT TO THE NORTH FOR INITIATION WITH OVERALL CELL
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY
EXPECTING SOME SEA BREEZE INITIATION. WELCOME TO SEE ANY RAINS BUT
MAY SEE A FEW GO SEVERE WITH PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MORE
INVERTED-V TYPE ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OVERALL WILL BE DRY.
AREA WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TEXAS HIGH
PUTTING AN EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE UMBRELLA OVER THE REGION WHILE
NORTHERN SURFACE FRONT AND TRIGGER WILL FINALLY RETREAT NORTHEAST.
ONLY HOPE FOR CONVECTION THEN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SEABREEZE
BUT EXTENT OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THIS. THUS
WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS IN GRIDS.
OTHERWISE WILL SEE HOT AND HUMID DAYS...AS WELL AS WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHTS. AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT
WITH OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MAIN WEATHER STORY THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEW WORK-WEEK. LONGER TERM
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE AS A SERIES OF
IMPULSES TOP AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS
LOOKING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW OVER MID-TEXAS BREAKS
DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 78 98 78 96 79 / 30 10 10 10 10
KBPT 77 98 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 75 101 75 98 76 / 20 10 10 10 20
KLFT 79 98 79 97 79 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 040031 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
731 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
SYNOPTIC TRENDS AND 00Z SOUNDING /SEE DISCUSSION BELOW/ SHOW A
MUCH DIFFERENT PICTURE THAN 24 HOURS AGO WHEN OUR AREA WAS IN THE
MIDDLE OF AN ACTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ALOFT / NVA PATTERN IS SUPPRESSING THE DEEP CONVECTION AND KEEPING
COVERAGE WAY DOWN. ENERGY HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE TO A FEW
STORMS WHICH HAVE TRIED TO PULSE TO SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER...
UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE AVOIDED MOST OF THE
POPULATED AREAS. HAVE LOWERED THE POP TO A GENEROUS 20 PERCENT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED TO
10 PERCENT OR LESS IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE. BECAUSE OF
THE LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE HOT CONDITIONS AND
HIGH HEAT INDICES CONTINUE THIS EVENING. HAVE ALLOWED THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM...BUT LEFT A CAUTION STATEMENT IN PLACE
TO ADVISE OF RELATIVELY HIGH HEAT INDICES THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.
.AVIATION...
LEFT A CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR THE ISOLATED TSRA WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF KMSY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER BELOW 5000 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB WARMED FROM -8C AT 7 AM AND 1 PM TODAY TO -5C
ON THE MOST RECENT SOUNDING AT 7 PM. THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
JUST BELOW 500 MB COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR ABOVE IT HAVE KEPT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LOWER...AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM... WILL BE MAINTAINING THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THOUGH RADAR
COVERAGE IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL HAVE AMPLE TIME
FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE AND
SEA BREEZE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS...50 KT AT STORM
TOP HEIGHTS AND A COOL -8C MID-LEVEL. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST
IS STATUS QUO. AS HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE
SATURDAY...MAY HOLD TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS MARGINAL BUT HOT AND HUMID IS TO BE
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PERIODS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF TRENDING
TOWARDS NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
MARINE...
A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHERN LA
COASTAL PARISHES...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOSTLY LAND AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS IN THE TIDAL LAKES AND NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AFTERNOONS
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES. MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 99 76 97 / 20 20 10 20
BTR 76 99 77 97 / 20 20 10 20
MSY 80 97 78 95 / 20 20 10 20
GPT 78 96 79 94 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 032327
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
KLCH RADAR INDICATING SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FROM NEAR CARENCRO AND LAFAYETTE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
KAPLAN. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA. INCLUDED
VCSH GROUP AT KAEX...AND VCTS AT KLFT AND KARA THROUGH 02-03Z AS
THIS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...AROUND 8KT OR LESS...EITHER
VARIABLE OR SOUTHWESTERLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A RATHER PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. BOUNDARY MAINLY DEWPOINT IN NATURE AND HAS
LINGERED SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. ALOFT...500 MILLIBAR HIGH
IS NOW LOCATED OVER MID TEXAS WITH A DEEP TROF ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
HAS PROVEN HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. KICKER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FRONT TO THE NORTH FOR INITIATION WITH OVERALL CELL
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY
EXPECTING SOME SEA BREEZE INITIATION. WELCOME TO SEE ANY RAINS BUT
MAY SEE A FEW GO SEVERE WITH PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MORE
INVERTED-V TYPE ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OVERALL WILL BE DRY.
AREA WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TEXAS HIGH
PUTTING AN EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE UMBRELLA OVER THE REGION WHILE
NORTHERN SURFACE FRONT AND TRIGGER WILL FINALLY RETREAT NORTHEAST.
ONLY HOPE FOR CONVECTION THEN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SEABREEZE
BUT EXTENT OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THIS. THUS
WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS IN GRIDS.
OTHERWISE WILL SEE HOT AND HUMID DAYS...AS WELL AS WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHTS. AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT
WITH OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MAIN WEATHER STORY THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEW WORK-WEEK. LONGER TERM
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE AS A SERIES OF
IMPULSES TOP AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS
LOOKING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW OVER MID-TEXAS BREAKS
DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 78 98 78 96 79 / 30 10 10 10 10
KBPT 77 98 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 75 101 75 98 76 / 20 10 10 10 20
KLFT 79 98 79 97 79 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 032105
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...
WILL BE MAINTAINING THE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THOUGH RADAR COVERAGE IS
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL HAVE AMPLE TIME FOR
DEVELOPMENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE AND SEA
BREEZE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS...50 KT AT STORM TOP
HEIGHTS AND A COOL -8C MID-LEVEL. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IS
STATUS QUO. AS HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY...MAY
HOLD TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA APPEARS MARGINAL BUT HOT AND HUMID IS TO BE EXPECTED
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PERIODS WITH EXPECTATIONS OF TRENDING
TOWARDS NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.
.AVIATION...
CU DEVELOPMENT BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED...ESP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG A KLFT TO KMSY LINE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
THEY/VE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THEIR UPDRAFT...BUT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MATURE WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND RELATIVELY LARGE HAIL. HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT BTR...MSY...AND GPT. MCB IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE WITH MAX SPEEDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS. FEW CLOUDS TO REMAIN LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MCB TOMORROW MORNING. MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHERN LA
COASTAL PARISHES...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOSTLY LAND AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS IN THE TIDAL LAKES AND NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS THRU MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AFTERNOONS
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES. MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 72 99 76 97 / 20 20 10 20
BTR 76 99 77 97 / 20 20 10 20
MSY 80 98 78 95 / 50 20 10 20
GPT 78 96 79 94 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>040-046>050-
056>070.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
000
FXUS64 KSHV 032034
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
334 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT...THEN A CHANGE ON THE WAY FOR
SUNDAY. DECIDED TO GO OVER MOS FOR SATURDAY...BASED ON SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THROW IN POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL
COMPRESSION...AND LOOKS LIKE ALL AREAS SHOULD GET AT LEAST 100...
WITH LOCATIONS ALONG INTERSTATE 20 AND SOUTH REACHING 103 OR 104.
FRONTAL WIND SHIFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STALL. NOT EXPECTING IT TO REACH
INTERSTATE 20 UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF FRONT
SHOULD GENERATE FIRST SHOT OF CONVECTION...AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL MORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT SHOULD AID
IN ADDITIONAL LIFT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CWA.
BELIEVE ALL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...DO TO LACK OF
MOISTURE INFLOW AND UPPER DYNAMICS...AND DO NOT BUY GFS BULLSEYE
CENTER AS IT CARVES OUT A 2-5 INCH SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA.
WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS UNDER 100 AND A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN.
GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE REBUILDING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH
SHOULD CUT OFF THE PRECIP AND BRING BACK HOT TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND W OF A
LBR...TO OSA...SHV...TO ESF LINE...ALONG A WEAK SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CB MENTION
FOR THE SHV/GGG TERMINALS THROUGH 02Z...BEFORE THE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES. A FEW FAIR WX CU WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z
SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. SSE WINDS 5KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY VEER SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO 20KTS OVER E TX...AFTER 15Z. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 103 75 92 73 / 10 10 10 30 30
MLU 73 102 75 96 73 / 20 10 10 30 50
DEQ 72 100 75 85 70 / 20 10 30 50 50
TXK 74 101 75 87 73 / 10 10 20 40 30
ELD 73 101 74 89 71 / 20 10 20 30 40
TYR 76 103 76 92 73 / 10 10 10 30 30
GGG 76 103 76 92 73 / 10 10 10 30 30
LFK 75 103 76 100 75 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
14/15
000
FXUS64 KLCH 031949
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
249 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A RATHER PERSISTENT BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. BOUNDARY MAINLY DEWPOINT IN NATURE AND HAS
LINGERED SOMEWHAT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. ALOFT...500 MILLIBAR HIGH
IS NOW LOCATED OVER MID TEXAS WITH A DEEP TROF ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
HAS PROVEN HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. KICKER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FRONT TO THE NORTH FOR INITIATION WITH OVERALL CELL
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY
EXPECTING SOME SEA BREEZE INITIATION. WELCOME TO SEE ANY RAINS BUT
MAY SEE A FEW GO SEVERE WITH PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MORE
INVERTED-V TYPE ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE.
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OVERALL WILL BE DRY.
AREA WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TEXAS HIGH
PUTTING AN EFFECTIVE CONVECTIVE UMBRELLA OVER THE REGION WHILE
NORTHERN SURFACE FRONT AND TRIGGER WILL FINALLY RETREAT NORTHEAST.
ONLY HOPE FOR CONVECTION THEN WILL BE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SEABREEZE
BUT EXTENT OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THIS. THUS
WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS IN GRIDS.
OTHERWISE WILL SEE HOT AND HUMID DAYS...AS WELL AS WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHTS. AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT
WITH OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MAIN WEATHER STORY THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEW WORK-WEEK. LONGER TERM
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BREAKDOWN OF RIDGE AS A SERIES OF
IMPULSES TOP AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS
LOOKING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
&&
.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WEST ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW OVER MID-TEXAS BREAKS
DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 78 98 78 96 79 / 30 10 10 10 10
KBPT 77 98 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 75 101 75 98 76 / 20 10 10 10 20
KLFT 79 98 79 97 79 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MARCOTTE
000
FXUS64 KLIX 031757
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1257 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN INCREASING...ESP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG A KLFT TO KMSY LINE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING GETS CONVECTION GOING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND RELATIVELY LARGE HAIL. HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT BTR...MSY...AND GPT. MCB IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE WITH
MAX SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. FEW CLOUDS TO REMAIN LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MCB TOM MORN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING A SIGNIFICANT UPDATE TO THE ZONE PACKAGE AS WELL
AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER UPDATE IN LIGHT OF LATEST ANALYSIS AND
CURRENT TRENDS. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE TO INTRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT FOR
PARISHES AND COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE TIDAL LAKES AND ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 100 IN MOST PLACES BEFORE CONVECTION AND
ANVIL CLOUD COVER OVERTAKES THE AREA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL BRING SKY AND QPF GRIDS IN LINE
WITH WEATHER CHANGES.
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND POOLING
OF 75-78F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA WITH
CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE INTO THIS MOISTURE POOL. WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 100 TODAY MOST AREAS...INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREAT AND FOCUS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH ENHANCEMENT LIKELY FROM LAKE
AND SEA BREEZE AS WELL AS ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLY DISCRETE CELLULAR STORM DEVELOPMENT. LIKE THURSDAY...SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS HIGH GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...RELATIVELY COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND HOT SURFACE TEMPS FOR ADEQUATE FAWBUSH-
MILLER TYPE CONVECTIVE GUSTS. RICKS INDEX OUTPUT INDICATED BELOW
IN SOUNDING DISCUSSION AND BASIS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WE WILL BE LAUNCHING AN 18Z BALLOON TO ASSESS THE SITUATION
FURTHER. REST OF PACKAGE AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT LEFT UNCHANGED. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -9.1
AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.81 INCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 90S. THE RICKS INDEX SHOWS A VALUE OF 160 WHICH
MEANS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND THE
PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 72 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR
SIZE HAIL. THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR 91
DEGREES AND A VIL NEAR 46 IS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO REACH SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASED TO NEAR
40 TO 50 PERCENT FOR TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT
LOWER SUNDAY BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROVIDED NEEDED RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS AND PROVIDED RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AGAIN LATE TODAY AS IT SLIPS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER INCREASED MID LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST BY
MODELS TODAY AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY MEAN ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP...HOWEVER...COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. 11
LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TREND TOWARD MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL COME ABOUT
AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS
DOWN AND SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. 11
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF SET. THE
PROBLEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE IF A TS AFFECTS ONE OF THE TERMINALS...AS
TEMPS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOR ANY ONE TS TO CONTAIN STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND HAIL. SOME 3-4SM BR
OVER THE BTR TERMINAL MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY
EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE IFR VIS RANGE. 35
MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA NEXT WORK WEEK...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WITH SEAS ALSO BUILDING IN RESPONSE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 101 74 98 / 20 10 10 20
BTR 76 100 77 98 / 20 10 10 20
MSY 78 96 79 97 / 50 10 10 20
GPT 77 96 79 95 / 30 10 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 031721
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 03/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE SEA BREEZE
TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. THEREFORE...WILL ADD A VICINITY SHOWER FOR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH 04/00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AFTERNOON
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS
THESE AREAS. OLD BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A GENERAL SOUTH
STORM MOTION EXPECTED. ALSO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MORE OF AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
EVOLVING THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE AS EXPECTED
THROUGH DRY LAYER ALOFT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
SOME FOG/HAZE IN AND AROUND BPT AND THIS AM WILL BURN-OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. TODAY....HAZE AROUND THE REGION WILL LOWER VSBY AT TIMES
WITH ELEVATED CLOUD BASES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NW GULF...WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A SHEAR AXIS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER TROF PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE TO THE WEST
ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMS INTO THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD SAGGED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
YESTERDAY EVENING...AND IS PRESUMABLY STILL IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN VIA SFC OBS. DATA
FROM POE 88D SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY HAVE SUNK EVEN FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BE ONE OF CONTINUING OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS CORE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS AREAWIDE AVERAGING OUT AT AROUND 105 DEGREES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL IN THE
AREA...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THOUGH
WHAT REMAINS OF IT WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT THAT
LITTLE IF ANYTHING WILL REMAIN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...RAINFALL WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CERTAINLY NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE TRANSITION FROM THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN
OF LATE TO A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WHATS LEFT OF RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NORTH LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO THE TEXAS LAKES AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES GO UP FROM THIS POINT UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A DECENT MOISTURE POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
NEITHER POINT TO A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
THUS...AFTER THE RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF RECORD BUSTING HEAT...WE
STILL HAVE ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO GET THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS
HEADED OUR WAY ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 99 78 98 78 96 / 30 30 10 10 10
KBPT 99 77 98 78 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
KAEX 102 75 101 75 98 / 20 20 10 10 10
KLFT 99 79 98 79 97 / 30 30 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 031633
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AFTERNOON
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS
THESE AREAS. OLD BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A GENERAL SOUTH
STORM MOTION EXPECTED. ALSO SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MORE OF AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
EVOLVING THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE AS EXPECTED
THROUGH DRY LAYER ALOFT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY.
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
SOME FOG/HAZE IN AND AROUND BPT AND THIS AM WILL BURN-OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. TODAY....HAZE AROUND THE REGION WILL LOWER VSBY AT TIMES
WITH ELEVATED CLOUD BASES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
.HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NW GULF...WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A SHEAR AXIS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER TROF PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE TO THE WEST
ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMS INTO THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD SAGGED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
YESTERDAY EVENING...AND IS PRESUMABLY STILL IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN VIA SFC OBS. DATA
FROM POE 88D SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY HAVE SUNK EVEN FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BE ONE OF CONTINUING OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS CORE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS AREAWIDE AVERAGING OUT AT AROUND 105 DEGREES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL IN THE
AREA...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THOUGH
WHAT REMAINS OF IT WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT THAT
LITTLE IF ANYTHING WILL REMAIN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...RAINFALL WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CERTAINLY NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE TRANSITION FROM THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN
OF LATE TO A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WHATS LEFT OF RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NORTH LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO THE TEXAS LAKES AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES GO UP FROM THIS POINT UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A DECENT MOISTURE POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
NEITHER POINT TO A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
THUS...AFTER THE RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF RECORD BUSTING HEAT...WE
STILL HAVE ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO GET THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS
HEADED OUR WAY ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 99 78 98 78 96 / 30 30 10 10 10
KBPT 99 77 98 78 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
KAEX 102 75 101 75 98 / 20 20 10 10 10
KLFT 99 79 98 79 97 / 30 30 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 031536
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE REGION...VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.
IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL AGAIN FORM ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH IN EASTERN ZONES...AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST.
THINK TYLER AND LUFKIN WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES...BUT THIS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGE IN
FORECAST PRODUCTS. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A SCT CU
FIELD WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 17Z...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z MAINLY WSW OF AN ESF...TO IER...TO SHV...TO OSA
LINE...IN VC OF A WEAK SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. MAY INSERT CB MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
GGG/SHV TERMINALS...BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AROUND 01Z SATURDAY. COULD ALSO SEE A SCT/BKN AC/CIRRUS
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING CONVECTION OVER NW AR/SW MO SPILL S
ACROSS INTO SW AR/N LA...BUT THIS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO THIN WITH
TIME AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...SKC
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. ESE WINDS
5-10KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 01Z. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102 76 102 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 40
MLU 101 74 101 75 94 / 20 20 10 10 30
DEQ 99 74 99 73 90 / 20 20 20 30 50
TXK 101 75 100 75 91 / 10 10 10 20 40
ELD 101 74 100 75 93 / 20 20 10 20 40
TYR 103 76 100 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 40
GGG 102 76 102 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 40
LFK 103 75 100 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
14
000
FXUS64 KLIX 031519 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL BE ISSUING A SIGNIFICANT UPDATE TO THE ZONE PACKAGE AS WELL
AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER UPDATE IN LIGHT OF LATEST ANALYSIS AND
CURRENT TRENDS. THE MAIN CHANGES WILL BE TO INTRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT FOR
PARISHES AND COUNTIES SURROUNDING THE TIDAL LAKES AND ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH 100 IN MOST PLACES BEFORE CONVECTION AND
ANVIL CLOUD COVER OVERTAKES THE AREA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL BRING SKY AND QPF GRIDS IN LINE
WITH WEATHER CHANGES.
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND POOLING
OF 75-78F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA WITH
CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE INTO THIS MOISTURE POOL. WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 100 TODAY MOST AREAS...INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREAT AND FOCUS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH ENHANCEMENT LIKELY FROM LAKE
AND SEA BREEZE AS WELL AS ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLY DISCRETE CELLULAR STORM DEVELOPMENT. LIKE THURSDAY...SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS HIGH GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT...RELATIVELY COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND HOT SURFACE TEMPS FOR ADEQUATE FAWBUSH-
MILLER TYPE CONVECTIVE GUSTS. RICKS INDEX OUTPUT INDICATED BELOW
IN SOUNDING DISCUSSION AND BASIS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WE WILL BE LAUNCHING AN 18Z BALLOON TO ASSESS THE SITUATION
FURTHER. REST OF PACKAGE AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT LEFT UNCHANGED. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -9.1
AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.81 INCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 90S. THE RICKS INDEX SHOWS A VALUE OF 160 WHICH
MEANS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND THE
PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 72 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR
SIZE HAIL. THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR 91
DEGREES AND A VIL NEAR 46 IS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO REACH SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASED TO NEAR
40 TO 50 PERCENT FOR TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT
LOWER SUNDAY BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROVIDED NEEDED RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS AND PROVIDED RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AGAIN LATE TODAY AS IT SLIPS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER INCREASED MID LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST BY
MODELS TODAY AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY MEAN ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP...HOWEVER...COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. 11
LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TREND TOWARD MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL COME ABOUT
AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS
DOWN AND SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. 11
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF SET. THE
PROBLEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE IF A TS AFFECTS ONE OF THE TERMINALS...AS
TEMPS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOR ANY ONE TS TO CONTAIN STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND HAIL. SOME 3-4SM BR
OVER THE BTR TERMINAL MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY
EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE IFR VIS RANGE. 35
MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA NEXT WORK WEEK...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WITH SEAS ALSO BUILDING IN RESPONSE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 102 73 101 74 / 10 20 10 10
BTR 102 76 100 77 / 40 20 10 10
MSY 98 78 97 79 / 50 50 10 10
GPT 98 77 96 79 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>040-046>050-
056>070.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 031418
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
918 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -9.1
AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.81 INCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 90S. THE RICKS INDEX SHOWS A VALUE OF 160 WHICH
MEANS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND THE
PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 72 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR
SIZE HAIL. THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR 91
DEGREES AND A VIL NEAR 46 IS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO REACH SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASED TO NEAR
40 TO 50 PERCENT FOR TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT
LOWER SUNDAY BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROVIDED NEEDED RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS AND PROVIDED RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AGAIN LATE TODAY AS IT SLIPS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER INCREASED MID LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST BY
MODELS TODAY AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY MEAN ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP...HOWEVER...COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. 11
LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TREND TOWARD MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL COME ABOUT
AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS
DOWN AND SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. 11
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF SET. THE
PROBLEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE IF A TS AFFECTS ONE OF THE TERMINALS...AS
TEMPS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOR ANY ONE TS TO CONTAIN STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND HAIL. SOME 3-4SM BR
OVER THE BTR TERMINAL MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY
EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE IFR VIS RANGE. 35
MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA NEXT WORK WEEK...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WITH SEAS ALSO BUILDING IN RESPONSE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 102 73 101 74 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 102 76 100 77 / 20 10 10 10
MSY 98 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10
GPT 98 77 96 79 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>040-046>050-
056>070.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 031115
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
SOME FOG/HAZE IN AND AROUND BPT AND THIS AM WILL BURN-OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. TODAY....HAZE AROUND THE REGION WILL LOWER VSBY AT TIMES
WITH ELEVATED CLOUD BASES. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
..HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NW GULF...WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A SHEAR AXIS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER TROF PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE TO THE WEST
ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMS INTO THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD SAGGED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
YESTERDAY EVENING...AND IS PRESUMABLY STILL IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN VIA SFC OBS. DATA
FROM POE 88D SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY HAVE SUNK EVEN FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BE ONE OF CONTINUING OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS CORE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS AREAWIDE AVERAGING OUT AT AROUND 105 DEGREES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL IN THE
AREA...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THOUGH
WHAT REMAINS OF IT WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT THAT
LITTLE IF ANYTHING WILL REMAIN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...RAINFALL WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CERTAINLY NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE TRANSITION FROM THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN
OF LATE TO A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WHATS LEFT OF RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NORTH LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO THE TEXAS LAKES AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES GO UP FROM THIS POINT UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A DECENT MOISTURE POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
NEITHER POINT TO A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
THUS...AFTER THE RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF RECORD BUSTING HEAT...WE
STILL HAVE ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO GET THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS
HEADED OUR WAY ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 99 78 98 78 96 / 20 20 10 10 10
KBPT 99 77 98 78 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
KAEX 102 75 101 75 98 / 20 20 10 10 10
KLFT 99 79 98 79 97 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 031044
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPED
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ALOFT A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SURFACE
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 FROM NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL BE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THE EXPECTED HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR
STATE REGION. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THERE
MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO THE RIDGE WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER ON SATURDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN MOST REACHES.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
AND SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND REFORM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR US. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA
INTO THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED
AND TEMPERATURES MORE NORMAL. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE
TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS THE
RIDGE OUT WEST BUILDS EAST. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
MAYBE SOME FEW TO SCT CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND SHOULD MAINLY BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102 76 102 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 40
MLU 102 74 101 75 94 / 20 20 10 10 30
DEQ 99 74 99 73 90 / 20 20 20 30 50
TXK 101 75 100 75 91 / 10 10 10 20 40
ELD 101 74 100 75 93 / 20 20 10 20 40
TYR 101 76 100 75 92 / 10 10 10 10 40
GGG 102 76 102 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 40
LFK 101 75 100 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
06/22
000
FXUS64 KLCH 031038
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
538 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NW GULF...WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A SHEAR AXIS. MEANWHILE...
AN UPPER TROF PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE TO THE WEST
ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMS INTO THE DESERT SW. AT THE
SFC...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD SAGGED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
YESTERDAY EVENING...AND IS PRESUMABLY STILL IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN VIA SFC OBS. DATA
FROM POE 88D SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY HAVE SUNK EVEN FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BE ONE OF CONTINUING OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS CORE
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SINKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EAST TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA. HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN...WITH READINGS AREAWIDE AVERAGING OUT AT AROUND 105 DEGREES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY STILL IN THE
AREA...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...THOUGH
WHAT REMAINS OF IT WILL BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT THAT
LITTLE IF ANYTHING WILL REMAIN OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...RAINFALL WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CERTAINLY NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SUNDAY BRINGS THE TRANSITION FROM THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY PATTERN
OF LATE TO A MILDER AND WETTER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WHATS LEFT OF RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NORTH LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO THE TEXAS LAKES AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES GO UP FROM THIS POINT UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A DECENT MOISTURE POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER...MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
NEITHER POINT TO A RETURN OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
THUS...AFTER THE RECENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF RECORD BUSTING HEAT...WE
STILL HAVE ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO GET THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS
HEADED OUR WAY ALONG WITH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 99 78 98 78 / 20 20 10 10
KBPT 99 77 98 78 / 20 20 10 10
KAEX 102 75 101 75 / 20 20 10 10
KLFT 99 79 98 79 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...13
000
FXUS64 KLIX 030901
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
401 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT
LOWER SUNDAY BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROVIDED NEEDED RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS AND PROVIDED RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AGAIN LATE TODAY AS IT SLIPS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER INCREASED MID LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST BY
MODELS TODAY AND LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY MEAN ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP...HOWEVER...COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. 11
.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TREND TOWARD MORE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL COME ABOUT
AS THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BREAKS
DOWN AND SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF SET. THE
PROBLEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE IF A TS AFFECTS ONE OF THE TERMINALS...AS
TEMPS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOR ANY ONE TS TO CONTAIN STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND HAIL. SOME 3-4SM BR
OVER THE BTR TERMINAL MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY
EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE IFR VIS RANGE. 35
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA NEXT WORK WEEK...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WITH SEAS ALSO BUILDING IN RESPONSE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 102 73 101 74 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 102 76 100 77 / 20 10 10 10
MSY 98 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10
GPT 98 77 96 79 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>040-046>050-
056>070.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
080>082.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
11/35
000
FXUS64 KLCH 030457
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
PRETTY MUCH STILL GOING WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE
WHERE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT KARA WHERE LAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE SEEN SUCH CONDITIONS DEVELOP
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. OTHERWISE DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUT
THE LID ON SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR EVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHEN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND ALLOWING MORE
SRLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE WE CAN LIFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
INTERIOR ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TNITE BUT WILL NEED TO ADD ISOLD
TSTMS TO THE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN DUE TO A
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM MOVING WEST OUT OF THE BATON ROUGE AREA.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE BEEN STRONG
AND PERSISTENT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A DEEP JET FINGER FROM H2
TO H3 IS PUTTING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AS THE JET DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS GOING IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND MENTION ISOLD TSTMS FOR SW LA WHICH IS DOWNSTREAM FROM
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. COULD SEE MORE OF THE SAME ON FRIDAY WITH
STRONG HEATING REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATE FRIDAY.
TEMPS LOOKING ON TRACK.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
HOT TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND...
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NM/WRN TX WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACRS NERN TX INTO NRN LA.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...VARYING BETWEEN
WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY. AS OF 3 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MID
TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT INDICES EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES ACRS THE AREA WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING INDICES AROUND 103-106 DEGREES. KLCH 88D RADAR
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACRS NRN LA DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD CNTRL LA...AS WELL AS SOME
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
DISCUSSION...
MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACRS TX TOWARD THE NRN GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT OVER
NRN LA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
FURTHER NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A FEW
AFTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. AFTN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...INDIVIDUALS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE CARE TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WHILE
PARTICIPATING IN FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING
TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER
AND WEARING LIGHTWEIGHT LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN
WHEN USING FIREWORKS AS FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE TO
HIGH ACRS THE AREA.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS...A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO PUSH A SFC FRONT INTO
CNTRL LA AND EAST TX. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMS.
MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL OVER LOUISIANA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 97 78 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 75 98 76 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 74 101 75 100 75 / 20 30 10 10 10
KLFT 76 98 78 99 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 030454
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION REMAIN TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF SET. THE PROBLEM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
IF A TS AFFECTS ONE OF THE TERMINALS...AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE UPPER
90S AND LOWER 100S...THE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR ANY ONE TS TO CONTAIN
STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND HAIL. SOME 3-4SM BR OVER THE BTR TERMINAL MAY
OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING FROM RAINFALL YESTERDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE IFR VIS RANGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL MARSHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME PROPAGATION NOTED BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EMANATING NORTHWARD. THIS MAY INDUCE MORE COVERAGE
THROUGH 7 PM ACROSS THE LOWER PARISHES. ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING
TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR PARISHES AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY BUT
THEY REMAIN SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 95 TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DO SO AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SETTLE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
FOCUSING CONVECTION SOMEWHAT MORE EFFICIENTLY IF LAKE AND GULF
BREEZES BECOME INVOLVED. WILL ONLY MAINTAIN 10 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY THOUGH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE WARRANTED IF SOUNDINGS
START SHOWING DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE. WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE DEPTH CONSIDERABLY. 24
LONG TERM...
THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL DEEPENING OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORMAL
DAILY 30-40 PERCENT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE RELIEF SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DAY-TO-DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 24
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA INHIBITING CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION
REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5
KTS IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. 95
MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING IN RESPONSE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 95
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 101 73 101 / 20 10 10 10
BTR 76 101 77 100 / 20 10 10 10
MSY 79 98 79 97 / 20 10 10 10
GPT 77 97 77 96 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 030342
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1042 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE WE CAN LIFT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
INTERIOR ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TNITE BUT WILL NEED TO ADD ISOLD
TSTMS TO THE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN DUE TO A
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM MOVING WEST OUT OF THE BATON ROUGE AREA.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE BEEN STRONG
AND PERSISTENT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A DEEP JET FINGER FROM H2
TO H3 IS PUTTING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AS THE JET DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS GOING IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND MENTION ISOLD TSTMS FOR SW LA WHICH IS DOWNSTREAM FROM
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. COULD SEE MORE OF THE SAME ON FRIDAY WITH
STRONG HEATING REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATE FRIDAY.
TEMPS LOOKING ON TRACK.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
.HOT TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND...
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NM/WRN TX WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACRS NERN TX INTO NRN LA.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...VARYING BETWEEN
WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY. AS OF 3 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MID
TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT INDICES EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES ACRS THE AREA WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING INDICES AROUND 103-106 DEGREES. KLCH 88D RADAR
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACRS NRN LA DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD CNTRL LA...AS WELL AS SOME
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
DISCUSSION...
MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACRS TX TOWARD THE NRN GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT OVER
NRN LA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
FURTHER NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A FEW
AFTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. AFTN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...INDIVIDUALS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE CARE TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WHILE
PARTICIPATING IN FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING
TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER
AND WEARING LIGHTWEIGHT LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN
WHEN USING FIREWORKS AS FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE TO
HIGH ACRS THE AREA.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS...A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO PUSH A SFC FRONT INTO
CNTRL LA AND EAST TX. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMS.
MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL OVER LOUISIANA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 97 78 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 75 98 76 97 77 / 5 20 10 10 10
KAEX 74 101 75 100 75 / 10 30 10 10 10
KLFT 76 98 78 99 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 030233
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
933 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING...
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND I HAVE
REMOVED ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FROM THE ONGOING
FORECAST.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS...
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET. AN
UPDATED SUITE OF PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /21/
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWARD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS SOUTH OF CWA.
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION NORTH OF BOUNDARY FIZZLING OUT QUICKLY WITH
SETTING SUN. NE WINDS BECMG LIGHT. A POCKET OF MID LVL MOISTURE MOVE
SOUTH INTO AREA IN DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW...AS UPPER RIDGE PARKED WEST
OF AREA. MAY SEE CLOUDS AROUND 15K...MAINLY ELD AND MLU SITES.
BETWEEN PSBL CLOUDS...AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN 60S...DO NOT EXPECT
FOG. HOWEVER...ELD COULD ONCE AGAIN BE EXCEPTION AS 8 PM T/TD ARE
87/69. CONVECTION FRI AFTN APPEARS TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT CB
REMARKS./VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 102 76 102 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
MLU 73 102 74 101 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEQ 69 99 74 99 75 / 10 10 10 20 20
TXK 71 101 75 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 20
ELD 71 101 74 100 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
TYR 73 101 76 101 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
GGG 74 102 76 102 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LFK 74 101 75 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECASTER...D. BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER...PO
000
FXUS64 KLCH 030142
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
842 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE BEEN STRONG
AND PERSISTENT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A DEEP JET FINGER FROM H2
TO H3 IS PUTTING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AS THE JET DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS GOING IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER AND MENTION ISOLD TSTMS FOR SW LA WHICH IS DOWNSTREAM FROM
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. COULD SEE MORE OF THE SAME ON FRIDAY WITH
STRONG HEATING REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATE FRIDAY.
TEMPS LOOKING ON TRACK.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
..HOT TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND...
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NM/WRN TX WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACRS NERN TX INTO NRN LA.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...VARYING BETWEEN
WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY. AS OF 3 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MID
TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT INDICES EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES ACRS THE AREA WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING INDICES AROUND 103-106 DEGREES. KLCH 88D RADAR
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACRS NRN LA DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD CNTRL LA...AS WELL AS SOME
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
DISCUSSION...
MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACRS TX TOWARD THE NRN GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT OVER
NRN LA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
FURTHER NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A FEW
AFTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. AFTN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...INDIVIDUALS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE CARE TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WHILE
PARTICIPATING IN FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING
TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER
AND WEARING LIGHTWEIGHT LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN
WHEN USING FIREWORKS AS FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE TO
HIGH ACRS THE AREA.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS...A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO PUSH A SFC FRONT INTO
CNTRL LA AND EAST TX. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMS.
MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL OVER LOUISIANA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 97 78 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 75 98 76 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 74 101 75 100 75 / 20 30 10 10 10
KLFT 76 98 78 99 77 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 022101
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AS THE
SUN SETS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO EASILY SURPASS 105 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT AS WE ARE HEADING INTO A HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE HEAT RELENTS SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES PERHAPS 4 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AREAWIDE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT NEAR
THE AREA...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE COAST...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR
AREA TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z. AMENDMENTS TO INCLUDE VCTS
AT SELECT SITES WILL BE ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...MAY SEE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS ELD DUE TO LIGHT GROUND FOG. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 102 76 102 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
MLU 73 102 74 101 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEQ 69 99 74 99 75 / 20 10 10 20 20
TXK 71 101 75 100 76 / 20 10 10 10 20
ELD 71 101 74 100 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
TYR 73 101 76 101 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
GGG 74 102 76 102 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LFK 74 101 75 100 76 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
18/05
000
FXUS64 KLCH 022100
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...HOT TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND...
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NM/WRN TX WITH A TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACRS NERN TX INTO NRN LA.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...VARYING BETWEEN
WESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY. AS OF 3 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ACRS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MID
TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND AROUND 90 ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT INDICES EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES ACRS THE AREA WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING INDICES AROUND 103-106 DEGREES. KLCH 88D RADAR
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACRS NRN LA DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD CNTRL LA...AS WELL AS SOME
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACRS TX TOWARD THE NRN GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. SFC FRONT OVER
NRN LA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
FURTHER NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A FEW
AFTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. AFTN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105
DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...INDIVIDUALS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE CARE TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES WHILE
PARTICIPATING IN FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND...INCLUDING
TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER
AND WEARING LIGHTWEIGHT LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN
WHEN USING FIREWORKS AS FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE TO
HIGH ACRS THE AREA.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS...A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO PUSH A SFC FRONT INTO
CNTRL LA AND EAST TX. THE COMBINATION OF FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL OVER LOUISIANA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 98 78 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 75 98 76 97 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 74 101 75 100 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
KLFT 77 99 78 99 77 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KLIX 022024
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL MARSHES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME PROPAGATION NOTED BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EMANATING NORTHWARD. THIS MAY INDUCE MORE COVERAGE
THROUGH 7 PM ACROSS THE LOWER PARISHES. ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING
TO DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR PARISHES AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY BUT
THEY REMAIN SMALL AND SHORT-LIVED WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 95 TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DO SO AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SETTLE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
FOCUSING CONVECTION SOMEWHAT MORE EFFICIENTLY IF LAKE AND GULF
BREEZES BECOME INVOLVED. WILL ONLY MAINTAIN 10 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY THOUGH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE WARRANTED IF SOUNDINGS
START SHOWING DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE. WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE DEPTH CONSIDERABLY. 24
.LONG TERM...
THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL DEEPENING OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORMAL
DAILY 30-40 PERCENT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE RELIEF SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DAY-TO-DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA INHIBITING CONVECTION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...BUT THE CHANCES OF RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION
REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5
KTS IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. 95
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH SEAS
OF 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING IN RESPONSE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...THERE WILL BE ENHANCED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 95
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 101 73 101 / 10 10 10 10
BTR 77 101 77 100 / 10 10 10 10
MSY 79 98 79 98 / 10 10 10 10
GPT 80 97 78 96 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
95/DM
000
FXUS64 KLCH 021733
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE
TO NO CLOUDS AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SWRLY WINDS THIS
AFTN. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AND ALONG WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER HOT AFTN TODAY. CURRENT FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 LOOK ON TARGET. IN KEEPING WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING...EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THIS
AFTN. A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACRS CNTRL LA...COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLD SO WILL MONITOR AS THINGS HEAT UP.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE AT
THIS TIME. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE ANY LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IMPROVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA IS ALSO ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S... WHICH SHOULD LIFT EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND. IN
THE NEAR TERM...DRY BUT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY TODAY
BUT HEAT INDICIES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. GFS HINTS AT
SHEAR AXIS APPROACHING THE NW GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH
INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING
INCREASE IN NIGHTIME AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 97 76 97 78 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 99 75 97 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 103 73 100 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 99 73 97 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 021720
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE AREA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KMCB. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THERE IS LITTLE THREAT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY
OR WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT 10 KTS OR LESS AND
SHOULD CALM OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING...EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. 95/DM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
A PROBLEM WITH THE RADIOSONDE CAUSED THE FIRST 3 MINUTES OF WIND
DATA TO BE MISSING AND A DELAY IN THE FLIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE STILL
HAS A BIT OF MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.59 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX VALUE OF -8.4. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING NINETY AT 9 AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH PULLS TO THE EAST...STRONG MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE GULF
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...WITH RECORD HIGHS THREATENED AT BTR
AND MSY. FORTUNATELY...THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS FAIRLY DRY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS. THIS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 TO 110 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO LED ME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...CREATING A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL CAP...IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONLY IF THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS ACQUIRED...AND SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING TAKES HOLD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD WE EXPECT
TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM...
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...FORCING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED OVER TEXAS. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL
GENERALLY STAY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. ALONG WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS...A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH. THESE IMPULSES WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPULSES SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE PUT IN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS BLOWOFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BEGIN BRINGING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 102 71 100 73 / 10 10 10 0
BTR 101 74 100 75 / 10 10 10 0
MSY 98 79 97 79 / 10 10 10 0
GPT 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 021541
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1041 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
KEEPING AN EYE ON AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...AS IT GRADUALLY
PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER. VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED TO VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS...HOWEVER IT STILL CARRIES WITH IT A WIDE BUT SCATTERED CLOUD
SHIELD. DO NOT FEEL THERE WILL BE MUCH LEFT TO IT BY THE TIME IT
PUSHES INTO THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER DID LOWER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA. THAT SAID...HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS IN THAT AREA...SO ALL PRECAUTIONS AGAINST
THE HEAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENTERING THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE
FROM 18Z-00Z...WHICH MAY RESULT IN AMENDMENTS TO INCLUDE VCTS AT
SELECT SITES. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 102 76 102 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
MLU 74 101 74 102 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
DEQ 69 98 73 99 73 / 20 10 10 10 20
TXK 72 100 76 100 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
ELD 68 100 73 100 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
TYR 75 102 77 102 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
GGG 73 102 75 102 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
LFK 74 103 74 103 77 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
18/05
000
FXUS64 KLCH 021539
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1039 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SWRLY WINDS THIS
AFTN. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AND ALONG WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER HOT AFTN TODAY. CURRENT FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 LOOK ON TARGET. IN KEEPING WITH PREVIOUS FCST
THINKING...EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA THIS
AFTN. A FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACRS CNTRL LA...COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLD SO WILL MONITOR AS THINGS HEAT UP.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE AT
THIS TIME. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE ANY LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IMPROVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA IS ALSO ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S... WHICH SHOULD LIFT EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND. IN
THE NEAR TERM...DRY BUT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY TODAY
BUT HEAT INDICIES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. GFS HINTS AT
SHEAR AXIS APPROACHING THE NW GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH
INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING
INCREASE IN NIGHTIME AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 97 76 97 78 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 99 75 97 76 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 103 73 100 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 99 73 97 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 021407
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
907 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
A PROBLEM WITH THE RADIOSONDE CAUSED THE FIRST 3 MINUTES OF WIND
DATA TO BE MISSING AND A DELAY IN THE FLIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE STILL
HAS A BIT OF MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.59 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX VALUE OF -8.4. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WESTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING NINETY AT 9 AM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH PULLS TO THE EAST...STRONG MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...AND ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE GULF
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S...WITH RECORD HIGHS THREATENED AT BTR
AND MSY. FORTUNATELY...THE AIRMASS ALOFT IS FAIRLY DRY...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS. THIS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 TO 110 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO LED ME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY...AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...CREATING A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL CAP...IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONLY IF THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS ACQUIRED...AND SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING TAKES HOLD ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD WE EXPECT
TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM...
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...FORCING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED OVER TEXAS. THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL
GENERALLY STAY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ALLOWING FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW. ALONG WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND GREATER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS...A SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD SLIP THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH. THESE IMPULSES WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST OF THESE IMPULSES SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE PUT IN THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
CIRRUS BLOWOFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FROM TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. SOME
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST. SOME
LIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING AT MCB. 35
MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BEGIN BRINGING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND STALL NEAR THE COAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY...NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 102 71 100 73 / 10 10 10 0
BTR 101 74 100 75 / 10 10 10 0
MSY 98 79 97 79 / 10 10 10 0
GPT 98 76 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 021248
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
748 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE ANY LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IMPROVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA IS ALSO ON THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S... WHICH SHOULD LIFT EASTWARD BY THIS WEEKEND. IN
THE NEAR TERM...DRY BUT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY TODAY
BUT HEAT INDICIES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW CRITERIA. GFS HINTS AT
SHEAR AXIS APPROACHING THE NW GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH
INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED WITH THIS FEATURE...WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE...BERMUDA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. SHEAR AXIS WILL LIKELY BRING
INCREASE IN NIGHTIME AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 97 76 97 78 / 10 10 10 10
KBPT 99 75 97 76 / 10 10 10 10
KAEX 103 73 100 75 / 10 10 10 10
KLFT 99 73 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...13
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