000
FXUS61 KBOX 032110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AS VERY WARM AIR TRIES
TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST USA FOR A DAY OR 2.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY PEA SIZE
HAIL IS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THERE IS A BIT BETTER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...ANY STORMS THAT GO UP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  WITH THE SATURATED GROUND FROM THE HEAVY RAINS
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...DRY WITH MARITIMES LOW PRES THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE RESULTING
IN A GUSTY WEST WIND. A VERY NICE SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BARELY THREATEN THE S COAST AT
NIGHT. TEMPS ARE 12Z GFS MOS BLENDED WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. WIND
GUSTS ARE 12Z NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUITY WITH SORT OF AN IN BETWEEN TRANSITION. CUD
BE A LATE MONDAY AFTN TSTM IN THE INTERIOR. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

WED-THU...MODEL DISPARITY PREVAILS BUT IT SEEMS AS WED IS VULNERABLE
TO A SHOWER OR TSTM. THEN ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A PROBABLE DRY FCST AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT FRI...WAA FROM THE WEST. GEFS IS COOLER THAN THE EC AND EVEN THE
12Z GFS OP RUN SO HAVE 50 50 BLENDED THE 12Z GFS MOSGUIDE WITH THE
4AM KBOX FCST. IF ANYTHING...WE THINK NEXT FRI COULD BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN IS LESS THAN NORMAL.

FCST WINDS THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY ARE 50 50 BLEND GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM THRU 84
HRS THEN 50/50 12Z GFS MOS AND 4AM EDT KBOX FCST FOR THE NEXT TUE-FRI
TIME FRAME.

FCST SKY...50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE AND THE 4AM EDT KBOX
FCST SUNDAY-FRIDAY THO I ADDED 20-30 PCT SKYCVR NEXT FRI...THIS DUE
TO THE WAA PATTERN AS THE HOT PROD IN THE NATIONS MID SECTION TRIES
TO INTRUDE UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT-NE PERIPHERY OF THE MID USA RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY 17Z-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NO HEADLINES ATTM THO WLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTN MAY PROMPT A
PARTIAL E MA COAST SHORT TERM SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG 509
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG 509
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 032054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AS VERY WARM AIR TRIES
TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST USA FOR A DAY OR 2.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY PEA SIZE
HAIL IS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THERE IS A BIT BETTER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...ANY STORMS THAT GO UP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  WITH THE SATURATED GROUND FROM THE HEAVY RAINS
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...DRY WITH MARITIMES LOW PRES THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE RESULTING
IN A GUSTY WEST WIND. A VERY NICE SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BARELY THREATEN THE S COAST AT
NIGHT. TEMPS ARE 12Z GFS MOS BLENDED WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. WIND
GUSTS ARE 12Z NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUITY WITH SORT OF AN IN BETWEEN TRANSITION. CUD
BE A LATE MONDAY AFTN TSTM IN THE INTERIOR. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

WED-THU...MODEL DISPARITY PREVAILS BUT IT SEEMS AS WED IS VULNERABLE
TO A SHOWER OR TSTM WITH A PROBABLE DRY FCST AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT FRI...WAA FROM THE WEST. GEFS IS COOLER THAN THE EC AND EVEN THE
12Z GFS OP RUN SO HAVE 50 50 BLENDED THE 12Z GFS MOSGUIDE WITH THE
4AM KBOX FCST. IF ANYTHING WE THINK NEXT FRI COULD BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN IS LESS THAN NORMAL.

FCST WINDS SUN/MON ARE 50 50 BLEND GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM THRU 84 HRS
THEN 50/50 12Z GFS MOS AND 4AM EDT KBOX FCST.

FCST SKY...50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE AND THE 4AM EDT KBOX
FCST THO I ADDED 20-30 PCT SKYCVR NEXT FRI...WAA PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SUN MIDDAY/AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NO HEADLINES ATTM THO WLY WIND GUST S 25 KNOTS SUN AFTN MAY PROMPT A
PARTIAL SHORT TERM SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 455
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG 455
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG 455
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK 455

000
FXUS61 KBOX 032022
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY PEA SIZE
HAIL IS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THERE IS A BIT BETTER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...ANY STORMS THAT GO UP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  WITH THE SATURATED GROUND FROM THE HEAVY RAINS
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY-MONDAY
ONCE THE SATURDAY UPPER LOW MOVES OFF...NEW ENGLAND MOVES INTO A
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER.  THE
BULK OF THE COLD POOL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF...MUCH OF THE AIRMASS
DRIES ALTHOUGH LINGERING 60 PERCENT RH AT 850 MB SUGGESTS SOME
CLOUDS.  WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...SOUTHERN NH MAY REACH CHC POPS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY.  TEMPS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACH THE EQUIVALENT OF 850 MB
11-13C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
RETURNS THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD...500 MB TEMPS -15C TO -17C...AND
BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH
TO BRING CHANCE POPS...INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED LAYER TEMPS DROP TO 8-10C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN NORTHERN MASS AND
SOUTHERN NH...DIMINISHING LATE.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE OWING TO THE FORECAST EXTENT OF THE UPPER COLD AIR.
STAY TUNED.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS REMAIN 8-10C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.  ALSO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...FRANK/WTB

000
FXUS61 KALY 032004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY
MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY
BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE... BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS. HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS
ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WELL ON
AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 031817
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING.  LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS EASTERN MA AT MID
MORNING...BUT THESE TO SHOULD BURNOFF AT MOST OF THESE PLACES BY NOON.
ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE ACROSS MOST LOCALES.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS A RESULT OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY.  AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDONE WITH THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
TOO MUCH CAPE.  NONETHELESS...500 MB COLD POOL OF -14C WILL STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE.  0 TO
6 KM SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.

ALL IN ALL...PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...COLD POOL ALOFTS OFTEN OVER PERFORM IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL IN THE
FORECAST.  REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE...BUT THE SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION IS
SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
ALL BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

ALSO...WE HAVE ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY BUT DO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOCATIONS TO SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT....
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOG PATCHES
WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DUE TO
SATURATED GROUND AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM CANADA. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN ONCE AGAIN WITH H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS. USED A BLEND
OF WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS THE MAV HIGHS
SEEM A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY-MONDAY
ONCE THE SATURDAY UPPER LOW MOVES OFF...NEW ENGLAND MOVES INTO A
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER.  THE
BULK OF THE COLD POOL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF...MUCH OF THE AIRMASS
DRIES ALTHOUGH LINGERING 60 PERCENT RH AT 850 MB SUGGESTS SOME
CLOUDS.  WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...SOUTHERN NH MAY REACH CHC POPS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY.  TEMPS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACH THE EQUIVALENT OF 850 MB
11-13C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
RETURNS THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD...500 MB TEMPS -15C TO -17C...AND
BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH
TO BRING CHANCE POPS...INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED LAYER TEMPS DROP TO 8-10C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN NORTHERN MASS AND
SOUTHERN NH...DIMINISHING LATE.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE OWING TO THE FORECAST EXTENT OF THE UPPER COLD AIR.
STAY TUNED.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS REMAIN 8-10C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.  ALSO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG REMAINED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT THE FOG TO BURNOFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY AFFECT OUT
WATERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WITH SOME LIMITED VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

UNDERCUT WNA SEAS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MORNING FOG PATCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FFABOX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD WAS TIED AT WORCESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES JULY 2 2009 TIES JULY 2 1986.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 031815
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING.  LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS EASTERN MA AT MID
MORNING...BUT THESE TO SHOULD BURNOFF AT MOST OF THESE PLACES BY NOON.
ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE ACROSS MOST LOCALES.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS A RESULT OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY.  AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDONE WITH THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
TOO MUCH CAPE.  NONETHELESS...500 MB COLD POOL OF -14C WILL STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE.  0 TO
6 KM SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.

ALL IN ALL...PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...COLD POOL ALOFTS OFTEN OVER PERFORM IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL IN THE
FORECAST.  REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE...BUT THE SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION IS
SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
ALL BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

ALSO...WE HAVE ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY BUT DO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOCATIONS TO SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT....
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOG PATCHES
WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DUE TO
SATURATED GROUND AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM CANADA. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN ONCE AGAIN WITH H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS. USED A BLEND
OF WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS THE MAV HIGHS
SEEM A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY-MONDAY
ONCE THE SATURDAY UPPER LOW MOVES OFF...NEW ENGLAND MOVES INTO A
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER.  THE
BULK OF THE COLD POOL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF...MUCH OF THE AIRMASS
DRIES ALTHOUGH LINGERING 60 PERCENT RH AT 850 MB SUGGESTS SOME
CLOUDS.  WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...SOUTHERN NH MAY REACH CHC POPS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY.  TEMPS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACH THE EQUIVALENT OF 850 MB
11-13C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
RETURNS THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD...500 MB TEMPS -15C TO -17C...AND
BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH
TO BRING CHANCE POPS...INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED LAYER TEMPS DROP TO 8-10C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN NORTHERN MASS AND
SOUTHERN NH...DIMINISHING LATE.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE OWING TO THE FORECAST EXTENT OF THE UPPER COLD AIR.
STAY TUNED.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS REMAIN 8-10C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOUTS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWSIE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.  ALSO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG REMAINED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT THE FOG TO BURNOFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY AFFECT OUT
WATERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WITH SOME LIMITED VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

UNDERCUT WNA SEAS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MORNING FOG PATCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FFABOX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD WAS TIED AT WORCESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES JULY 2 2009 TIES JULY 2 1986.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 031735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.  MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE...
BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS.  HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP
FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME.  CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WELL ON AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...JPV/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 031728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD MITIGATE ABOVE FACTORS AND STILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.  MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE...
BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS.  HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP
FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME.  CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WELL ON AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 031430
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING.  LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS EASTERN MA AT MID
MORNING...BUT THESE TO SHOULD BURNOFF AT MOST OF THESE PLACES BY NOON.
ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE ACROSS MOST LOCALES.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS A RESULT OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY.  AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDONE WITH THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
TOO MUCH CAPE.  NONETHELESS...500 MB COLD POOL OF -14C WILL STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE.  0 TO
6 KM SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.

ALL IN ALL...PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...COLD POOL ALOFTS OFTEN OVER PERFORM IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL IN THE
FORECAST.  REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE...BUT THE SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION IS
SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
ALL BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

ALSO...WE HAVE ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY BUT DO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOCATIONS TO SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT....
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOG PATCHES
WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DUE TO
SATURATED GROUND AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM CANADA. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN ONCE AGAIN WITH H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS. USED A BLEND
OF WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS THE MAV HIGHS
SEEM A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY-MONDAY
ONCE THE SATURDAY UPPER LOW MOVES OFF...NEW ENGLAND MOVES INTO A
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER.  THE
BULK OF THE COLD POOL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF...MUCH OF THE AIRMASS
DRIES ALTHOUGH LINGERING 60 PERCENT RH AT 850 MB SUGGESTS SOME
CLOUDS.  WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...SOUTHERN NH MAY REACH CHC POPS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY.  TEMPS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACH THE EQUIVALENT OF 850 MB
11-13C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
RETURNS THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD...500 MB TEMPS -15C TO -17C...AND
BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH
TO BRING CHANCE POPS...INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED LAYER TEMPS DROP TO 8-10C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN NORTHERN MASS AND
SOUTHERN NH...DIMINISHING LATE.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE OWING TO THE FORECAST EXTENT OF THE UPPER COLD AIR.
STAY TUNED.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS REMAIN 8-10C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING BY 16-18Z. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TONIGHT...EVENING MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL PERHAPS 02Z.
OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR. LOCAL IFR IN DEVELOPING FOG AND STRATUS CAPE
AND ISLANDS AFT 00Z AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AFT 04Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL MORNING IFR IN FOG PATCHES. OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NORTHERN
TERMINALS DURING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.  ALSO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG REMAINED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT THE FOG TO BURNOFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY AFFECT OUT
WATERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WITH SOME LIMITED VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

UNDERCUT WNA SEAS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MORNING FOG PATCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FFABOX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD WAS TIED AT WORCESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES JULY 2 2009 TIES JULY 2 1986.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...FRANK/STRAUSS/WTB
HYDROLOGY...STRAUSS
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 031415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD MITIGATE ABOVE FACTORS AND STILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS SOME SUNSHINE GETS THROUGH...CUMULUS
WILL BEGIN BUILDING AND BY NOONTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE THUNDER
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO FORM STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...JPV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 031054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS SOME SUNSHINE GETS THROUGH...CUMULUS
WILL BEGIN BUILDING AND BY NOONTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE THUNDER
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO FORM STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 030908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CEILINGS AT KGFL
DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITY AT KALB DURING
THE LATE EVENING. A BROKEN DECK OF LOW AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TO GET THROUGH...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CUMULUS WILL
START BUILDING INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
BY AROUND NOON WHICH WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE
TSTMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM STARTING
LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 030900
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S TODAY. IN ADDITION INCREASING SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WILL HELP ENHANCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. COLD POOL ALOFT AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY AT 1.3-1.4 G/KG.
HOWEVER THE WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK TODAY WITH MEAN RELATIVE
STORM MOTION AVERAGING AROUND 15 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOST DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SLOW MOVERS.
GIVEN THAT THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FFABOX FOR DETAILS.

SURFACE BASED CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT....
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOG PATCHES
WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DUE TO
SATURATED GROUND AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM CANADA. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN ONCE AGAIN WITH H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS. USED A BLEND
OF WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS THE MAV HIGHS
SEEM A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUNDAY-MONDAY
ONCE THE SATURDAY UPPER LOW MOVES OFF...NEW ENGLAND MOVES INTO A
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER.  THE
BULK OF THE COLD POOL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF...MUCH OF THE AIRMASS
DRIES ALTHOUGH LINGERING 60 PERCENT RH AT 850 MB SUGGESTS SOME
CLOUDS.  WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...SOUTHERN NH MAY REACH CHC POPS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY.  TEMPS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACH THE EQUIVILENT OF 850 MB
11-13C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
RETURNS THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD...500 MB TEMPS -15C TO -17C...AND
BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH
TO BRING CHANCE POPS...INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED LAYER TEMPS DROP TO 8-10C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN NORTHERN MASS AND
SOUTHERN NH...DIMINISHING LATE.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE OWING TO THE FORECAST EXTENT OF THE UPPER COLD AIR.
STAY TUNED.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS REMAIN 8-10C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING BY 16-18Z. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TONIGHT...EVENING MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL PERHAPS 02Z.
OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR. LOCAL IFR IN DEVELOPING FOG AND STRATUS CAPE
AND ISLANDS AFT 00Z AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AFT 04Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL MORNING IFR IN FOG PATCHES. OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NORTHERN
TERMINALS DURING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.  ALSO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...IMPROVING VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WITH SOME LIMITED VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

UNDERCUT WNA SEAS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MORNING FOG PATCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FFABOX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD WAS TIED AT WORCESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES JULY 2 2009 TIES JULY 2 1986.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ002>021-026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...STRAUSS
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 030856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. NICE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUN AS THE
LOW DOMINATES IN THE MARITIMES. LOW PRES AND A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS
SHOULD BE FEATURED HERE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S TODAY. IN ADDITION INCREASING SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WILL HELP ENHANCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. COLD POOL ALOFT AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY AT 1.3-1.4 G/KG.
HOWEVER THE WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK TODAY WITH MEAN RELATIVE
STORM MOTION AVERAGING AROUND 15 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE
EXPECT MOST DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SLOW MOVERS.
GIVEN THAT THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FFABOX FOR DETAILS.

SURFACE BASED CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE INCLUDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

TONIGHT....
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOG PATCHES
WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DUE TO
SATURATED GROUND AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM CANADA. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN ONCE AGAIN WITH H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS. USED A BLEND
OF WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS THE MAV HIGHS
SEEM A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY...IN MY OPINION...THIS WILL BE THE BEST DAY WE SEE HERE
BETWEEN WHAT WE HAVE RECENTLY ENDURED AND WHAT MAY UNFOLD NEXT WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE BUT NOT A GUARANTEE OF NO RAIN CALENDER DAY SUNDAY...
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND LOW HUMIDITY!

MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK...HUGE DISPARITY IN THE INTERNATIONAL SUITE OF
12Z OP MODELS...AND ALSO WITHIN THE GEFS. OVERALL... THE TROUGH CONTINUES
IN THE NE WITH REINFORCING SHORT WAVES PUSHING SEWD RESULTING IN
PULSES OF WAA AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR POTENT
TSTMS. OVERALL...IT WILL NOT BE AS PERSISTENTLY DAMP OR NEARLY AS
COOL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN OTHER WORDS MUCH BRIGHTER...WARMER
DAYS BUT POTENTIAL FOR A DAY OR 2 OF POTENT TSTMS.

SINCE THERE WAS SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT... HAVE 50/50 BLENDED THE 4AM
FCST WITH THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING BY 16-18Z. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL
HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TONIGHT...EVENING MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL PERHAPS 02Z.
OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR. LOCAL IFR IN DEVELOPING FOG AND STRATUS CAPE
AND ISLANDS AFT 00Z AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AFT 04Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL MORNING IFR IN FOG PATCHES. OTHERWISE VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NORTHERN
TERMINALS DURING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SUNDAY...VFR. W WIND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.

MON...LOW CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...IMPROVING VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WITH SOME LIMITED VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

UNDERCUT WNA SEAS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MORNING FOG PATCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SCA WINDS E MASS WATERS POSSIBLE SAT AND SUNDAY. LOW PROB SMW GUSTS
SATURDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FFABOX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD WAS TIED AT WORCESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES JULY 2 2009 TIES JULY 2 1986.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ002>021-026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...STRAUSS
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 030851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE HUDSON...MOHAWK...AND
HOUSATONIC RIVER VALLEYS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY SOMEWHAT
WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR
IN MANY LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KGFL AND KPOU TAF SITES WHICH
ARE SHELTERED FROM WINDS AND WHERE DRAINAGE FROM NEARBY HIGHER
TERRAIN OFTEN ENHANCES FOG FORMATION. AT KALB...THE COMBINATION
OF A MORE OPEN LOCATION AND THE AIRPORT ABOVE THE NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY IS LIKELY TO FAVOR LIGHT MVFR FOG ALTHOUGH SOME INTERVALS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. VSBY
AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE MORNING. STARTING AROUND
NOONTIME...CUMULUS WILL BUILD INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WHICH WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE TSTMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR.  FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN DIMINISH
TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 030551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930PM...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
EXITING OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE LAPS AND SPC-MESO ANALYSIS HAS
THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SHOWING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND OUR LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE
FORCING OBSERVED IN THE LATEST RUC13...WE WILL DROP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT 10 PM EDT. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF FOG ONCE AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET AND NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ONE MORE
SHORT WAVE TROF TO DEAL WITH...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGESTING BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SBCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED. WHILE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOWER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAK
OF SUN. GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE DRIER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS FOLLOWED. WHILE IT WILL BE
DRIER...IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70 NEAR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...WITH A BIT
OF A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BUT IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL APPRECIABLY WARMER DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS OF A BREEZE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIOD TO START OUT DRY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS DIFFER ON A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER FEATURE ALOFT THAN
THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS SHOWING MEAGER QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUE POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THUR...AS YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SETTLES IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. STILL 5-7 DAYS AWAY...BUT WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY FROM TUE THROUGH THUR. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS BEST DAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE WED...SO WILL MENTION THUNDER. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE HUDSON...MOHAWK...AND
HOUSATONIC RIVER VALLEYS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY SOMEWHAT
WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR
IN MANY LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KGFL AND KPOU TAF SITES WHICH
ARE SHELTERED FROM WINDS AND WHERE DRAINAGE FROM NEARBY HIGHER
TERRAIN OFTEN ENHANCES FOG FORMATION. AT KALB...THE COMBINATION
OF A MORE OPEN LOCATION AND THE AIRPORT ABOVE THE NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY IS LIKELY TO FAVOR LIGHT MVFR FOG ALTHOUGH SOME INTERVALS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. VISBY
AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE MORNING. STARTING AROUND
NOONTIME...CUMULUS WILL BUILD INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WHICH WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE TSTMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR.  FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN DIMINISH
TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS
WELL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES
WILL RISE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP TO 45
TO 60 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 PM...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED AT 10 PM EDT.

THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OCCURRED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...BUT THESE STORMS WERE PROGRESSIVE /NO TRAINING ECHOES/
RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SMALL URBAN ISSUES.

MAIN STEM RIVERS WERE NOT AFFECTED AS MUCH SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN
FELL OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE NORMANS KILL SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...DID JUMP SEVERAL
FEET TO NEAR BANKFULL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE HAD THE CHANCE TO RECEDE SOME. ACROSS
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...SOME RIVER LEVELS DID JUMP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE NOTABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC AND
HOOSIC RIVERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
SINCE THE STORMS WILL MOVE IN A MORE WEST TO EAST DIRECTION AND
THUS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TRAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RCK/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 030343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1143 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA...CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE INTO
SAT. NICE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUN AS THE LOW DOMINATES IN THE
MARITIMES. LOW PRES AND A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS SHOULD BE FEATURED HERE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT TRENDS. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER WINDSOR ONTARIO
IN CANADA SHOULD APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z. PATCHY FOG
WILL PERSIST AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
IF ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...THEY WILL PROBABLY EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WE STILL EXPECT TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BETWEEN -14C AND -15C AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.  DESPITE...WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALOFT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT
ARE WEAK...COLD POOLS ALOFT SEEM TO PERFORM WELL IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THINK THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS.  IN ADDITION...DESPITE PWAT
VALUES LOWERING FROM RECENT DAYS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR POPS...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN
WITH LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR WITH
CHANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
EVENING.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT DAYS...PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT...MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE
FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL. POPS ARE IN THE FCST...PER KBOX
CONTINUITY AND THE 09Z SREF AS WELL AS THE 12Z GEFS POPS FOR .05 BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING POTENT TSTMS. NOTICED THE GGEM IS DRY AND
NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED WITH THE SEWD EXTENT OF THE COLD POOL.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND TEMPS 75 TO
80.


SUNDAY...IN MY OPINION...THIS WILL BE THE BEST DAY WE SEE HERE BETWEEN
WHAT WE HAVE RECENTLY ENDURED AND WHAT MAY UNFOLD NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE
BUT NOT A GUARANTEE OF NO RAIN CALENDER DAY SUNDAY... GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO 25 KNOTS AND LOW HUMIDITY!

MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK...HUGE DISPARITY IN THE INTERNATIONAL SUITE OF
12Z OP MODELS...AND ALSO WITHIN THE GEFS. OVERALL... THE TROUGH CONTINUES
IN THE NE WITH REINFORCING SHORT WAVES PUSHING SEWD RESULTING IN
PULSES OF WAA AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR POTENT
TSTMS. OVERALL...IT WILL NOT BE AS PERSISTENTLY DAMP OR NEARLY AS
COOL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN OTHER WORDS MUCH BRIGHTER...WARMER
DAYS BUT POTENTIAL FOR A DAY OR 2 OF POTENT TSTMS.

SINCE THERE WAS SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT... HAVE 50/50 BLENDED THE 4AM
FCST WITH THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER CONNECTICUT INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AFFECTING
BDL/BAF/ORH. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL. IFR TO LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. VSBYS ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM VLIFR ON PORTIONS OF
MASS COAST.

THIS EVENING /9-11PM/...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG
PATCHES. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

TONIGHT...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EAST AND MVFR WEST OVERNIGHT IN FOG
PATCHES OVERNIGHT.  LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY...VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
W WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS.

SUNDAY...VFR.  W WIND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.

MON...LOW CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE FORMATION OF MORE
FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  HOWEVER...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS FLIRT WITH THE DISTANT OUTER-WATERS.

OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WATERS NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SCA WINDS E MASS WATERS POSSIBLE SAT AND SUNDAY. LOW PROB SMW GUSTS
SATURDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOWER PWAT VALUES...WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/FRANK/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 030132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930PM...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
EXITING OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE LAPS AND SPC-MESO ANALYSIS HAS
THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SHOWING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND OUR LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE
FORCING OBSERVED IN THE LATEST RUC13...WE WILL DROP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT 10 PM EDT. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF FOG ONCE AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET AND NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ONE MORE
SHORT WAVE TROF TO DEAL WITH...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGESTING BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SBCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED. WHILE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOWER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAK
OF SUN. GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE DRIER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS FOLLOWED. WHILE IT WILL BE
DRIER...IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70 NEAR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...WITH A BIT
OF A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BUT IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL APPRECIABLY WARMER DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS OF A BREEZE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIOD TO START OUT DRY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS DIFFER ON A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER FEATURE ALOFT THAN
THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS SHOWING MEAGER QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUE POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THUR...AS YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SETTLES IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. STILL 5-7 DAYS AWAY...BUT WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY FROM TUE THROUGH THUR. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS BEST DAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE WED...SO WILL MENTION THUNDER. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR TO IFR FROM KALB
NORTHWARD...MAINLY FOR CIGS...WHILE VFR AT KPOU. OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS MAY
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT KALB AND KGFL...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS
LIKELY WITHIN SHOWERS...AND CIGS HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO THE MVFR/VFR
RANGE...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MAINLY FOR CIGS.

AT KPOU...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH BEST CHC SHOULD REMAIN JUST N OF
KPOU. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR...MAINLY FOR
VSBY...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP LATE.

AT ALL LOCALES...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING.
THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/HAIL...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED...BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBY/CIG INTO IFR RANGE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY NE TO N...THEN W AT
KGFL AND KALB...WHILE KPOU WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW INTO THE W/NW
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KT. FOR
FRI...WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY W TO NW...AND INCREASE TO 10-20
KT...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS
WELL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES
WILL RISE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP TO 45
TO 60 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 PM...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED AT 10 PM EDT.

THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OCCURRED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...BUT THESE STORMS WERE PROGRESSIVE /NO TRAINING ECHOES/
RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SMALL URBAN ISSUES.

MAIN STEM RIVERS WERE NOT AFFECTED AS MUCH SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN
FELL OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE NORMANS KILL SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...DID JUMP SEVERAL
FEET TO NEAR BANKFULL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE HAD THE CHANCE TO RECEDE SOME. ACROSS
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...SOME RIVER LEVELS DID JUMP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE NOTABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC AND
HOOSIC RIVERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
SINCE THE STORMS WILL MOVE IN A MORE WEST TO EAST DIRECTION AND
THUS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TRAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RCK/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 022334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
BE FROM FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LESS PRONOUNCED THAN
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A CONDITIONAL THREAT
SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS
INHIBITED INSTABILITY BUILD UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
SOUTH OF ALBANY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE CLOSE TO 1000-1200
J/KG...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/ RESIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND EASTERN PA/NJ...SO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREAS
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA ALTHOUGH IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED
STATE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL PRODUCTION WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH
THESE STORMS. THE SPECIAL 18Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY 350 J/KG
CAPE...WITH FAIRLY WEAK LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALMOST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUNDING MORE
INDICATIVE OF FLASH FLOODING THAN SEVERE CONVECTION.

THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOC WITH A SHORT WAVE TROF ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL
LINGER MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOWER
60S IN THE VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET
GROUND CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ONE MORE
SHORT WAVE TROF TO DEAL WITH...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGESTING BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SBCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED. WHILE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOWER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAK
OF SUN. GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE DRIER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS FOLLOWED. WHILE IT WILL BE
DRIER...IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70 NEAR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...WITH A BIT
OF A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BUT IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL APPRECIABLY WARMER DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS OF A BREEZE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIOD TO START OUT DRY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS DIFFER ON A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER FEATURE ALOFT THAN
THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS SHOWING MEAGER QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUE POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THUR...AS YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SETTLES IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. STILL 5-7 DAYS AWAY...BUT WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY FROM TUE THROUGH THUR. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS BEST DAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE WED...SO WILL MENTION THUNDER. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR TO IFR FROM KALB
NORTHWARD...MAINLY FOR CIGS...WHILE VFR AT KPOU. OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS MAY
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT KALB AND KGFL...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS
LIKELY WITHIN SHOWERS...AND CIGS HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO THE MVFR/VFR
RANGE...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MAINLY FOR CIGS.

AT KPOU...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH BEST CHC SHOULD REMAIN JUST N OF
KPOU. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR...MAINLY FOR
VSBY...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP LATE.

AT ALL LOCALES...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING.
THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/HAIL...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED...BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBY/CIG INTO IFR RANGE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY NE TO N...THEN W AT
KGFL AND KALB...WHILE KPOU WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW INTO THE W/NW
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KT. FOR
FRI...WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY W TO NW...AND INCREASE TO 10-20
KT...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS
WELL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES
WILL RISE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP TO 45
TO 60 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH HAS BEEN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY...
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS...ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WILL AGAIN TRAIN IN LINES RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
LIMITED AREAS. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD NEARLY SIX INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...WITH PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS WERE NOT AFFECTED AS MUCH SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN
FELL OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE NORMANS KILL SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...DID JUMP SEVERAL
FEET TO NEAR BANKFULL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE HAD THE CHANCE TO RECEDE SOME. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A MORE WEST TO EAST DIRECTION AND THUS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO TRAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/RCK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 022303
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA...CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE INTO
SAT. NICE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUN AS THE LOW DOMINATES IN THE
MARITIMES. LOW PRES AND A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS SHOULD BE FEATURED HERE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS SHIFTED TO THE
INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY CONNECTICUT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HOWEVER THE QSTRY FRONT HAS TURNED S AS A COOL FRONT ACROSS SNE...
NOT ONLY SEEN IN THE WIND FIELDS BUT ALSO IN THE R/VELOCITY FIELDS
FROM THE RADARS.

SFC LOW WILL NOODLE EWD TO CC ALONG THE S COAST AND DENSE FOG WILL
PREVAIL NE MASS.

TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLED AND SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO WX HAVE BEEN MADE IN
COASTAL MASS BUT WE PROBABLY NEED TO DO MORE.

THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AS PWATS
REMAIN HIGH. FEEL THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING THIS
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
CONNECTICUT.

OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
FEEL THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  MUCH
OF THE EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING.

THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING
AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY REMAIN DRY.  HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN A 15 TO 20 POP AS WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A POPUP ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.  ALSO...A LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY ALLOW FOR ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS TOWARDS
12Z.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANY QPF IN
THAT REGION...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL SO
WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG SHOULD RE-DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
IF ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...THEY WILL PROBABLY EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WE STILL EXPECT TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BETWEEN -14C AND -15C AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.  DESPITE...WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALOFT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT
ARE WEAK...COLD POOLS ALOFT SEEM TO PERFORM WELL IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THINK THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS.  IN ADDITION...DESPITE PWAT
VALUES LOWERING FROM RECENT DAYS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR POPS...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN
WITH LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR WITH
CHANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
EVENING.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT DAYS...PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT...MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE
FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL. POPS ARE IN THE FCST...PER KBOX
CONTINUITY AND THE 09Z SREF AS WELL AS THE 12Z GEFS POPS FOR .05 BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING POTENT TSTMS. NOTICED THE GGEM IS DRY AND
NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED WITH THE SEWD EXTENT OF THE COLD POOL.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND TEMPS 75 TO
80.


SUNDAY...IN MY OPINION...THIS WILL BE THE BEST DAY WE SEE HERE BETWEEN
WHAT WE HAVE RECENTLY ENDURED AND WHAT MAY UNFOLD NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE
BUT NOT A GUARANTEE OF NO RAIN CALENDER DAY SUNDAY... GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO 25 KNOTS AND LOW HUMIDITY!

MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK...HUGE DISPARITY IN THE INTERNATIONAL SUITE OF
12Z OP MODELS...AND ALSO WITHIN THE GEFS. OVERALL... THE TROUGH CONTINUES
IN THE NE WITH REINFORCING SHORT WAVES PUSHING SEWD RESULTING IN
PULSES OF WAA AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR POTENT
TSTMS. OVERALL...IT WILL NOT BE AS PERSISTENTLY DAMP OR NEARLY AS
COOL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN OTHER WORDS MUCH BRIGHTER...WARMER
DAYS BUT POTENTIAL FOR A DAY OR 2 OF POTENT TSTMS.

SINCE THERE WAS SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT... HAVE 50/50 BLENDED THE 4AM
FCST WITH THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER CONNECTICUT INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AFFECTING
BDL/BAF/ORH. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL. IFR TO LIFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. VSBYS ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM VLIFR ON PORTIONS OF
MASS COAST.

THIS EVENING /9-11PM/...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG
PATCHES. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FURTHER WEST
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

TONIGHT...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EAST AND MVFR WEST OVERNIGHT IN FOG
PATCHES OVERNIGHT.  LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY...VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
W WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS.

SUNDAY...VFR.  W WIND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.

MON...LOW CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE FORMATION OF MORE
FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  HOWEVER...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS FLIRT WITH THE DISTANT OUTER-WATERS.

OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WATERS NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SCA WINDS E MASS WATERS POSSIBLE SAT AND SUNDAY. LOW PROB SMW GUSTS
SATURDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD HAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  FEEL ANY FLOODING THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE
ISOLATED AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS CONNECTICUT...SINCE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT REGION.

THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  HOWEVER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE LOWER PWAT
VALUES...WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/FRANK 703P
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANK/RLG 703P
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK 703P
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 022105
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA...CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE INTO
SAT. NICE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL SUN AS THE LOW DOMINATES IN THE
MARITIMES. LOW PRES AND A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS SHOULD BE FEATURED HERE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS SHIFTED TO
THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY CONNECTICUT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
CONNECTICUT AND PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA.  BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CONNECTICUT/WESTERN RHODE ISLAND.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR 500 TO 1000
J/KG OF MLCAPE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  THEREFORE...THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE AND ESPECIALLY IN OUR
CONNECTICUT ZONES.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS PWATS REMAIN HIGH.  FEEL THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS CONNECTICUT.

OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
FEEL THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  MUCH
OF THE EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING.

THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING
AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY REMAIN DRY.  HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN A 15 TO 20 POP AS WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A POPUP ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.  ALSO...A LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY ALLOW FOR ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS TOWARDS
12Z.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANY QPF IN
THAT REGION...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL SO
WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG SHOULD RE-DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
IF ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...THEY WILL PROBABLY EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WE STILL EXPECT TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BETWEEN -14C AND -15C AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.  DESPITE...WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALOFT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT
ARE WEAK...COLD POOLS ALOFT SEEM TO PERFORM WELL IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THINK THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS.  IN ADDITION...DESPITE PWAT
VALUES LOWERING FROM RECENT DAYS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR POPS...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN
WITH LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR WITH
CHANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
EVENING.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT DAYS...PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT...MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE
FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL. POPS ARE IN THE FCST...PER KBOX
CONTINUITY AND THE 09Z SREF AS WELL AS THE 12Z GEFS POPS FOR .05 BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING POTENT TSTMS. NOTICED THE GGEM IS DRY AND
NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED WITH THE SEWD EXTENT OF THE COLD POOL.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND TEMPS 75 TO
80.


SUNDAY...IN MY OPINION...THIS WILL BE THE BEST DAY WE SEE HERE BETWEEN
WHAT WE HAVE RECENTLY ENDURED AND WHAT MAY UNFOLD NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE
BUT NOT A GUARANTEE OF NO RAIN CALENDER DAY SUNDAY... GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO 25 KNOTS AND LOW HUMIDITY!

MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK...HUGE DISPARITY IN THE INTERNATIONAL SUITE OF
12Z OP MODELS...AND ALSO WITHIN THE GEFS. OVERALL... THE TROUGH CONTINUES
IN THE NE WITH REINFORCING SHORT WAVES PUSHING SEWD RESULTING IN
PULSES OF WAA AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR POTENT
TSTMS. OVERALL...IT WILL NOT BE AS PERSISTENTLY DAMP OR NEARLY AS
COOL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IN OTHER WORDS MUCH BRIGHTER...WARMER
DAYS BUT POTENTIAL FOR A DAY OR 2 OF POTENT TSTMS.

SINCE THERE WAS SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT... HAVE 50/50 BLENDED THE 4AM
FCST WITH THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER CONNECTICUT INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AFFECTING
BDL/BAF/ORH.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A FEW AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT OVER
CONNECTICUT AND PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP.  IN THIS AREA...CIGS RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR.
VSBYS ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM VLIFR ON PORTIONS OF THE CAPE TO
VFR ACROSS CONNECTICUT.

THIS EVENING /7-11PM/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG PATCHES.
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FURTHER WEST INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY.

TONIGHT...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EAST AND MVFR WEST OVERNIGHT IN FOG
PATCHES OVERNIGHT.  LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY...VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
W WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS.

SUNDAY...VFR.  W WIND WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS.

MON...LOW CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE FORMATION OF
MORE FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS.  SEAS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  HOWEVER...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS FLIRT WITH THE DISTANT OUTER-WATERS.

OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WATERS NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SCA WINDS E MASS WATERS POSSIBLE SAT AND SUNDAY. LOW PROB SMW GUSTS
SATURDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD HAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  FEEL ANY FLOODING THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE
ISOLATED AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS CONNECTICUT...SINCE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT REGION.

THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  HOWEVER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE LOWER PWAT
VALUES...WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/STRAUSS 504P
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG 504P
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANK/RLG 504P
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK 504P
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 022028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.  THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY TURN A
LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS SHIFTED TO
THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY CONNECTICUT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
CONNECTICUT AND PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA.  BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CONNECTICUT/WESTERN RHODE ISLAND.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR 500 TO 1000
J/KG OF MLCAPE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  THEREFORE...THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE AND ESPECIALLY IN OUR
CONNECTICUT ZONES.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS PWATS REMAIN HIGH.  FEEL THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS CONNECTICUT.

OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
FEEL THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  MUCH
OF THE EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING.

THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING
AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY REMAIN DRY.  HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN A 15 TO 20 POP AS WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A POPUP ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.  ALSO...A LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY ALLOW FOR ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS TOWARDS
12Z.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANY QPF IN
THAT REGION...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL SO
WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG SHOULD RE-DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
IF ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...THEY WILL PROBABLY EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WE STILL EXPECT TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BETWEEN -14C AND -15C AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.  DESPITE...WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALOFT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT
ARE WEAK...COLD POOLS ALOFT SEEM TO PERFORM WELL IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THINK THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS.  IN ADDITION...DESPITE PWAT
VALUES LOWERING FROM RECENT DAYS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR POPS...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN
WITH LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR WITH
CHANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
EVENING.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT DAYS...PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WITH
A 100 KNOT UPPER JET CORE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND
WITH SECTIONS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING -18C AT 500 MB...THE
NAM HAS -20C AT THE CORE. EVEN IF -20C IS NOT REALIZED THERE IS
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT TO AGAIN DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN...AND WITH
ANY SURFACE HEATING THIS WOULD ONLY INTENSIFY THE INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...THE AIR ALOFT REMAINS MOIST AND THE GROUND SHOULD STILL BE WET
FROM RECENT RAIN. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...DYNAMICS.  THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN MOST OF OUR AREA AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY MIDDAY.
OVERALL THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE STABLE DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT SEEMS IN TATTERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY...SO DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY...SO WE
WENT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN DRYING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER CONNECTICUT INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AFFECTING
BDL/BAF/ORH.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A FEW AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT OVER
CONNECTICUT AND PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP.  IN THIS AREA...CIGS RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR.
VSBYS ALSO ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM VLIFR ON PORTIONS OF THE CAPE TO
VFR ACROSS CONNECTICUT.

THIS EVENING /7-11PM/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG PATCHES.
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FURTHER WEST INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY.

TONIGHT...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EAST AND MVFR WEST OVERNIGHT IN FOG
PATCHES OVERNIGHT.  LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE FORMATION OF
MORE FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS.  SEAS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  HOWEVER...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS FLIRT WITH THE DISTANT OUTER-WATERS.

OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WATERS NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...THEN DIMINISHING SEAS AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SUN/MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD HAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  FEEL ANY FLOODING THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE
ISOLATED AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS CONNECTICUT...SINCE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT REGION.

THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  HOWEVER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE LOWER PWAT
VALUES...WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 022003
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.  THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY TURN A
LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS SHIFTED TO
THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY CONNECTICUT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
CONNECTICUT AND PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA.  BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CONNECTICUT/WESTERN RHODE ISLAND.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR 500 TO 1000
J/KG OF MLCAPE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE.  THEREFORE...THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE AND ESPECIALLY IN OUR
CONNECTICUT ZONES.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AS PWATS REMAIN HIGH.  FEEL THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS CONNECTICUT.

OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
FEEL THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  MUCH
OF THE EVENING MAY END UP DRY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING.

THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING
AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY REMAIN DRY.  HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN A 15 TO 20 POP AS WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A POPUP ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.  ALSO...A LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY ALLOW FOR ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS TOWARDS
12Z.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE ANY QPF IN
THAT REGION...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION SUPPORTS THIS POTENTIAL SO
WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG SHOULD RE-DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
IF ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...THEY WILL PROBABLY EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WE STILL EXPECT TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE REGION.  IN ADDITION...500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BETWEEN -14C AND -15C AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.  DESPITE...WEAK WIND
FIELDS ALOFT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  EVEN THOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT
ARE WEAK...COLD POOLS ALOFT SEEM TO PERFORM WELL IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THINK THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS.  IN ADDITION...DESPITE PWAT
VALUES LOWERING FROM RECENT DAYS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.  LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR POPS...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN
WITH LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR WITH
CHANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE
EVENING.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS.  WITH THE WET GROUND FROM RECENT DAYS...PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WITH
A 100 KNOT UPPER JET CORE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND
WITH SECTIONS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING -18C AT 500 MB...THE
NAM HAS -20C AT THE CORE. EVEN IF -20C IS NOT REALIZED THERE IS
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT TO AGAIN DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN...AND WITH
ANY SURFACE HEATING THIS WOULD ONLY INTENSIFY THE INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...THE AIR ALOFT REMAINS MOIST AND THE GROUND SHOULD STILL BE WET
FROM RECENT RAIN. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...DYNAMICS.  THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN MOST OF OUR AREA AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY MIDDAY.
OVERALL THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE STABLE DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT SEEMS IN TATTERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY...SO DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY...SO WE
WENT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN DRYING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST AT KBOS-KORH-KMHT THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND PERHAPS MVFR FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG PATCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS EAST...MVFR SOUTH AND WEST. EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG PATCHES OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE FORMATION OF
MORE FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS.  SEAS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  HOWEVER...ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS FLIRT WITH THE DISTANT OUTER-WATERS.

OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
MORNING REDUCING VISIBILITIES.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WATERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WATERS NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...THEN DIMINISHING SEAS AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SUN/MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FLASH FLOOD HAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS.  FEEL ANY FLOODING THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE
ISOLATED AND PROBABLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS CONNECTICUT...SINCE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED IN THAT REGION.

THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  HOWEVER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE LOWER PWAT
VALUES...WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB
HYDROLOGY...FRANK

000
FXUS61 KALY 021954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
BE FROM FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LESS PRONOUNCED THAN
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A CONDITIONAL THREAT
SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS
INHIBITED INSTABILITY BUILD UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
SOUTH OF ALBANY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE CLOSE TO 1000-1200
J/KG...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/ RESIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND EASTERN PA/NJ...SO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREAS
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA ALTHOUGH IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED
STATE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL PRODUCTION WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH
THESE STORMS. THE SPECIAL 18Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY 350 J/KG
CAPE...WITH FAIRLY WEAK LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALMOST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUNDING MORE
INDICATIVE OF FLASH FLOODING THAN SEVERE CONVECTION.

THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOC WITH A SHORT WAVE TROF ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL
LINGER MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOWER
60S IN THE VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET
GROUND CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ONE MORE
SHORT WAVE TROF TO DEAL WITH...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGESTING BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SBCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED. WHILE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOWER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAK
OF SUN. GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE DRIER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS FOLLOWED. WHILE IT WILL BE
DRIER...IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70 NEAR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...WITH A BIT
OF A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BUT IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL APPRECIABLY WARMER DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS OF A BREEZE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIOD TO START OUT DRY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS DIFFER ON A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER FEATURE ALOFT THAN
THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS SHOWING MEAGER QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUE POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THUR...AS YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SETTLES IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. STILL 5-7 DAYS AWAY...BUT WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY FROM TUE THROUGH THUR. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS BEST DAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE WED...SO WILL MENTION THUNDER. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MOSTLY MVFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF
OCCASIONAL VFR AT TIMES. INDICATIONS FROM SEVERAL METARS ARE
THAT IFR/LIFR WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WORKS ITS WAY IN PUSHING THE LOW OVERCAST
NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY SINCE ONCE SOME
SUNSHINE STARTS GETTING THROUGH IT WILL KICK OFF CONVECTION
WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS. AND ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES DOWN THIS
EVENING...SOME DIURNAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AND FOG WILL BEGIN
TO FORM LATER IN THE EVENING AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. AND IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PERSISTING SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK. EVENTUALLY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR...IF NOT VFR...BY MID MORNING. BUT AGAIN...LIKE TODAY...
ONCE SOME SUNSHINE MATERIALIZES...IT WILL KICK OFF SOME
CONVECTION.

WINDS TODAY AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
WEST FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS
WELL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES
WILL RISE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP TO 45
TO 60 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH HAS BEEN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY...
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS...ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WILL AGAIN TRAIN IN LINES RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
LIMITED AREAS. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD NEARLY SIX INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...WITH PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS WERE NOT AFFECTED AS MUCH SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN
FELL OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE NORMANS KILL SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...DID JUMP SEVERAL
FEET TO NEAR BANKFULL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE HAD THE CHANCE TO RECEDE SOME. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A MORE WEST TO EAST DIRECTION AND THUS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO TRAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 021804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...STILL PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 100 PM EDT VISIBLE SAT IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND NJ WHICH WERE
ROTATING EAST AND NORTH AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CUTOFF
LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PESTER US. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN CATSKILLS NORTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE WAS A SECOND AREAS OF SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF VERMONT WHICH WAS MOVING
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE HUDSON
VALLEY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. UPDATED THE SKY COVER TO
INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL LET SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH...WHICH IN TURN WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF SOME MORE CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES. THE
PREVIOUSLY FCST MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...BUT FEEL THEY WILL
HAPPEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE WE GET AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNSHINE. HAVE PULLED THE AREA OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL A BIT SOUTH IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...SO NOW THE THREAT OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FROM GREENE...COLUMBIA...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY SOUTH. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.

THE HYDRO PUMP CONTINUES TO BE PRIMED OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FORECAST FOR THE CONTINUE POTENTIAL OF
FLASH FLOODING. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE WITH THE 00Z
KALB SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUE OF 1.43".
THIS VALUE IS ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. WE ARE
EXPECTING PWATS BASED ON THE NAM/GFS TO BE IN THE 1.25-1.66" RANGE
TODAY. THE GFS HAS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE /1000-850 HPA/ AXIS
SHIFTING WEST OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CATSKILLS...WHILE THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW IT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H850 FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT
10-20 KTS FROM THE S/SE. WE ARE EXPECTING TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN AN HOUR.

THE NEBULOUS AREA IN THE FCST IS SEVERE WEATHER. IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUE THREAT WE ARE DOING AN 18Z SOUNDING. A SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH IN THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 750-1250 J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH WITH
BETTER SFC DEWPOINTS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO POSSIBLY U60S NEAR
KPOU. THE NAM SHOWS LESS SBCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH
LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C. THE DEEP BULK SHEAR /0-6 KM/ IN BOTH
MODELS CONTINUES TO BE 30-35 KTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES. A BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN A CLUSTER/LINE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE ARE AROUND
6C/KM...SO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS COULD OCCUR...IF ENOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TIED TO
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SFC WAVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND VT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE
HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE FOLLOWED HPC
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. THE LATEST ECMWF DOES HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE WRN ZONES INTO CNTRL NY...AS THE SFC WAVE IS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER CLOSED TROUGH TURNING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. IT WOULD HELP IF
THIS RAIN DID FALL WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER
YESTERDAYS DELUGE. NONETHELESS...WE ARE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 10Z/FRI TO COVER THE HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE PLACED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
CLEARING...AND RECENTLY WET GROUND.

FRIDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH THE CUTOFF
FINALLY OPENING AND MOVING A BIT OVER SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE DIURNAL
HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE COOLING CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM.
THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE AREA.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A RESIDUAL MOIST AXIS IS TRICKY AT TIMES...WITH
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH CUTOFFS. WE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION ON FRI.
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A SEE TEXT FOR NOW.

FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY REINFORCING THE CUTOFF
SLIDING DOWNSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS A POOL OF
VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. H850 TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA
MAY ONLY BE 6-9C FROM NW TO SE FOR JULY 4TH. THAT IS ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AT THAT LEVEL BY A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ! WE MAY ONLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID 60S TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD POOL AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. THEY WILL BE TIED TO THE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE WENT SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND
CHANCE VALUES NORTH AND WEST. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SIMMER DOWN BEFORE THE INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING SHOWS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE LOW AND STUBBORN H5 TROF FINALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH
WEAK...WILL CREST OVER FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. THE NET RESULT LOOKS
TO FINALLY BE SOME DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF H5 TROF AXIS AS WELL AS SFC
LOW TRACK BTWN GFS AND ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH GIVE FA SOME QPF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FASTER TO MOVE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVING OFF EAST COAST. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MOSTLY MVFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF
OCCASIONAL VFR AT TIMES. INDICATIONS FROM SEVERAL METARS ARE
THAT IFR/LIFR WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WORKS ITS WAY IN PUSHING THE LOW OVERCAST
NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY SINCE ONCE SOME
SUNSHINE STARTS GETTING THROUGH IT WILL KICK OFF CONVECTION
WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS. AND ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES DOWN THIS
EVENING...SOME DIURNAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AND FOG WILL BEGIN
TO FORM LATER IN THE EVENING AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. AND IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PERSISTING SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK. EVENTUALLY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR...IF NOT VFR...BY MID MORNING. BUT AGAIN...LIKE TODAY...
ONCE SOME SUNSHINE MATERIALIZES...IT WILL KICK OFF SOME
CONVECTION.

WINDS TODAY AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
WEST FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL BACK TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT
ON FRIDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 5-10
MPH...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW AT AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION...LOWERING ZONE FFG VALUES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY YESTERDAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 021717
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
117 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.  THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY TURN A
LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL QPF TODAY...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FIELDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT THE FOCUS MAY SHIFT TOWARDS THE
INTERIOR.  THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WE EXPECT THIS WARM FRONT TO
SLOWLY INCH NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST MA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
CONNECTICUT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THOSE SAME CONDITIONS
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA LATE.  SOME SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN
NJ.

ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS AREAS SOUTH OF
THE MA PIKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  COLD POOL ALOFT ALSO SLOWLY WORKS
EAST AND ALLOWS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.  THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS OUR CONNECTICUT ZONES.  IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE NOTED OVER DETROIT MICHIGAN WILL HEAD
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE AREA.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. IF THE WARM FRONT REACHES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT LIFTS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE PROCESS. COLD POOL
ALOFT MOVES IN DURING THE DAY WITH -14C AT 500 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MODEL CAPES ARE FORECAST AT 500-1000 JOULES...AND ANY SUNSHINE WILL
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER...LIKELY PULSE STORMS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT NOTATION. 850 TEMPS AT
11-12C...MIXING SHOULD BRING US TO MAX TEMPS OF 75 TO 80.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WITH
A 100 KNOT UPPER JET CORE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND
WITH SECTIONS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING -18C AT 500 MB...THE
NAM HAS -20C AT THE CORE. EVEN IF -20C IS NOT REALIZED THERE IS
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT TO AGAIN DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN...AND WITH
ANY SURFACE HEATING THIS WOULD ONLY INTENSIFY THE INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...THE AIR ALOFT REMAINS MOIST AND THE GROUND SHOULD STILL BE WET
FROM RECENT RAIN. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...DYNAMICS.  THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN MOST OF OUR AREA AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY MIDDAY.
OVERALL THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE STABLE DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT SEEMS IN TATTERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY...SO DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY...SO WE
WENT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN DRYING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST AT KBOS-KORH-KMHT THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND PERHAPS MVFR FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG PATCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS EAST...MVFR SOUTH AND WEST. EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG PATCHES OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ACROSS
THE OUTER-WATERS.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS NEAR 4 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DIMINISHING SEAS AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SUN/MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...FRANK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 021514
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1113 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.  THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY TURN A
LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS GENERALLY PUSHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
THIS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AS WELL AS RHODE ISLAND.

HOWEVER...WE ALREADY SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING LATE
THIS MORNING ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND INTO SOUTHEAST MA.  THE MODEL QPF
FIELDS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.  WHILE THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS HAVE NOT BEEN
PERFECT...THEY CERTAINLY HAVE PERFORMED BETTER.  THE 12Z NAM MODEL
CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE 850 MB LEVEL
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MA.

ALL IN ALL...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OVERSPREAD
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STILL EXPECT TO
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND SOME INSTABILITY.

FINALLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MA PIKE...AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH.  A LOT
WILL DEPEND ON IF WE CAN SEE A FEW BRIEF BREAKS OF SUN SOUTH OF THE
MA PIKE ALLOWING FOR A BIT BETTER INSTABILITY.  THE MODELS DO HAVE
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE 0 TO 6 KM LAYER...SO SOMETHING
WILL HAVE TO WATCH BUT POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE NOTED OVER DETROIT MICHIGAN WILL HEAD
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE AREA.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. IF THE WARM FRONT REACHES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT LIFTS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE PROCESS. COLD POOL
ALOFT MOVES IN DURING THE DAY WITH -14C AT 500 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MODEL CAPES ARE FORECAST AT 500-1000 JOULES...AND ANY SUNSHINE WILL
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER...LIKELY PULSE STORMS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT NOTATION. 850 TEMPS AT
11-12C...MIXING SHOULD BRING US TO MAX TEMPS OF 75 TO 80.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WITH
A 100 KNOT UPPER JET CORE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND
WITH SECTIONS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING -18C AT 500 MB...THE
NAM HAS -20C AT THE CORE. EVEN IF -20C IS NOT REALIZED THERE IS
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT TO AGAIN DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN...AND WITH
ANY SURFACE HEATING THIS WOULD ONLY INTENSIFY THE INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...THE AIR ALOFT REMAINS MOIST AND THE GROUND SHOULD STILL BE WET
FROM RECENT RAIN. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...DYNAMICS.  THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN MOST OF OUR AREA AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY MIDDAY.
OVERALL THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE STABLE DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT SEEMS IN TATTERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY...SO DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY...SO WE
WENT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN DRYING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST AT KBOS-KORH-KMHT THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND PERHAPS MVFR FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG PATCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS EAST...MVFR SOUTH AND WEST. EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG PATCHES OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ACROSS
THE OUTER-WATERS.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS NEAR 4 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DIMINISHING SEAS AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SUN/MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING.  THE PRIME
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING APPEARS TO BE EASTERN MA/RHODE ISLAND
WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...FRANK/STRAUSS/WTB
HYDROLOGY...FRANK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 021217
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
816 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.  THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY TURN A
LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 815 AM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
AFFECTING NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH WITH AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN.  IN ADDITION...A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS RHODE ISLAND WERE LIFTING NORTHEAST.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN MA BETWEEN 830 AM AND 10 AM...INCLUDING THE BOSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  IN ADDITION...SOME FLOODING
WILL OCCUR PARTICULARLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.  FORECAST WILL BE
UPDATED TO HANDLE THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
LOCATED NEAR WILMINGTON DELAWARE. THIS WILL BE TRACKING STEADILY
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGS THIS SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AND SHEAR
NOTED AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO RISING
TO AROUND 1.75 G/KG. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AS THE SHORT
WAVE DEPARTS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.

USED A BLEND OF COOLER MET GUIDANCE NORTH AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE NOTED OVER DETROIT MICHIGAN WILL HEAD
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE AREA.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. IF THE WARM FRONT REACHES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT LIFTS NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE PROCESS. COLD POOL
ALOFT MOVES IN DURING THE DAY WITH -14C AT 500 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MODEL CAPES ARE FORECAST AT 500-1000 JOULES...AND ANY SUNSHINE WILL
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER...LIKELY PULSE STORMS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT NOTATION. 850 TEMPS AT
11-12C...MIXING SHOULD BRING US TO MAX TEMPS OF 75 TO 80.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WITH
A 100 KNOT UPPER JET CORE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND
WITH SECTIONS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING -18C AT 500 MB...THE
NAM HAS -20C AT THE CORE. EVEN IF -20C IS NOT REALIZED THERE IS
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT TO AGAIN DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN...AND WITH
ANY SURFACE HEATING THIS WOULD ONLY INTENSIFY THE INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...THE AIR ALOFT REMAINS MOIST AND THE GROUND SHOULD STILL BE WET
FROM RECENT RAIN. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...DYNAMICS.  THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN MOST OF OUR AREA AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY MIDDAY.
OVERALL THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE STABLE DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT SEEMS IN TATTERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY...SO DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY...SO WE
WENT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN DRYING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST AT KBOS-KORH-KMHT THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND PERHAPS MVFR FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG PATCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS EAST...MVFR SOUTH AND WEST. EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG PATCHES OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LIGHT EASTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING. SEAS NEAR 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS NEAR 4 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DIMINISHING SEAS AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SUN/MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE RISK FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 021037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...STILL PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 330 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS FROM THE
GFS40 OVERLAYED CONTINUES TO SHOW A GREAT LAKES CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING NEAR LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. ROUND 3 OF ACTIVE
WEATHER IS BEGINNING WITH THIS CUTOFF. THE 2ND ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RESULTED IN SEVERAL FLASH FLOODS IN AN AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE WAS ALSO A MINOR SEVERE EVENT WITH
MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.

THE INTERESTING FEATURE TO DEAL WITH FIRST TODAY IS THE SFC
TROUGH/OR WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BASED
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF. THE LATEST MSAS
DATA SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN NJ. ANOTHER WEAK
SFC WAVE CLOSER TO THE CUTOFF IS OVER WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING ERN NY. IT IS A SYNOPTIC RAINBAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE CUTOFF. WE HAVE SEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SOME OF THE CUTOFF
CASES IN CSTAR WITH THE UALBANY /FOR EXAMPLE...14-17 JUL 2000/.

THE HYDRO PUMP CONTINUES TO BE PRIMED OVER THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FORECAST FOR THE CONTINUE POTENTIAL OF
FLASH FLOODING. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE WITH THE 00Z
KALB SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUE OF 1.43".
THIS VALUE IS ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. WE ARE
EXPECTING PWATS BASED ON THE NAM/GFS TO BE IN THE 1.25-1.66" RANGE
TODAY. THE GFS HAS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE /1000-850 HPA/ AXIS
SHIFTING WEST OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CATSKILLS...WHILE THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW IT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H850 FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT
10-20 KTS FROM THE S/SE. WE ARE EXPECTING TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN AN HOUR.

THE NEBULOUS AREA IN THE FCST IS SEVERE WEATHER. SPC CONTINUES TO
HAVE FROM APPROX THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH IN A SLIGHT
RISK. WE AGREE THAT ONCE THIS RAINBAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WAVE...THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY
CLEAR A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SE MI/WRN LAKE ERIE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
IN THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES OF
750-1250 J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH WITH BETTER SFC
DEWPOINTS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO POSSIBLY U60S NEAR KPOU. THE NAM
SHOWS LESS SBCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH LIFTED INDICES
OF -1C TO -3C. THE DEEP BULK SHEAR /0-6 KM/ IN BOTH MODELS
CONTINUES TO BE 30-35 KTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AND THE BERKSHIRES. A BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
A CLUSTER/LINE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE ARE AROUND 6C/KM...SO A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS COULD
OCCUR...IF ENOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WE DON/T THINK SRN VT WILL BE IN THE
MIX...SO IN THE GRIDS/ZONES WE WILL PHRASE IT FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...THAT A FEW STORMS
MAYBE SEVERE. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HVY RAINFALL.
MORE DISCUSSION ON RAINFALL IN THE NEXT SEGMENT.

TEMPS TODAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MORNING RAINFALL. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE AVN/NAM MOS MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TIED TO
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SFC WAVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND VT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE
HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE FOLLOWED HPC
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. THE LATEST ECMWF DOES HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE WRN ZONES INTO CNTRL NY...AS THE SFC WAVE IS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER CLOSED TROUGH TURNING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. IT WOULD HELP IF
THIS RAIN DID FALL WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER
YESTERDAYS DELUGE. NONETHELESS...WE ARE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 10Z/FRI TO COVER THE HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE PLACED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
CLEARING...AND RECENTLY WET GROUND.

FRIDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH THE CUTOFF
FINALLY OPENING AND MOVING A BIT OVER SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE DIURNAL
HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE COOLING CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM.
THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE AREA.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A RESIDUAL MOIST AXIS IS TRICKY AT TIMES...WITH
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH CUTOFFS. WE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION ON FRI.
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A SEE TEXT FOR NOW.

FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY REINFORCING THE CUTOFF
SLIDING DOWNSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS A POOL OF
VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. H850 TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA
MAY ONLY BE 6-9C FROM NW TO SE FOR JULY 4TH. THAT IS ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AT THAT LEVEL BY A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ! WE MAY ONLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID 60S TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD POOL AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. THEY WILL BE TIED TO THE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE WENT SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND
CHANCE VALUES NORTH AND WEST. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SIMMER DOWN BEFORE THE INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING SHOWS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE LOW AND STUBBORN H5 TROF FINALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH
WEAK...WILL CREST OVER FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. THE NET RESULT LOOKS
TO FINALLY BE SOME DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF H5 TROF AXIS AS WELL AS SFC
LOW TRACK BTWN GFS AND ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH GIVE FA SOME QPF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FASTER TO MOVE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVING OFF EAST COAST. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW AND THUS MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ONE DIFFERENCE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH UP THE HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW IN MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOME OF THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE
HEAVY ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IT
LOOKS EVEN LESS CERTAIN THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS TO WHERE CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. WILL LEAVE SHOWERS AND MENTION OF CB IN
AT KGFL AND KALB BUT REDUCE TO VCSH AT KPOU AS LESS CERTAIN
FARTHER S. LATER TONIGHT ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO WRN
NEW ENG AND WILL DROP MENTION OF PCPN TO VCSH AT KALB AFT 06Z AND
KGFL AFT 08Z.

WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL BACK TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT
ON FRIDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 5-10
MPH...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW AT AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION...LOWERING ZONE FFG VALUES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY YESTERDAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBOX 020924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
524 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.  THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY TURN A
LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY.
WAVY FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS CROSSING EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND NEAR THE
HARTFORD AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
LOCATED NEAR WILMINGTON DELAWARE. THIS WILL BE TRACKING STEADILY
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGS THIS SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AND SHEAR
NOTED AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO RISING
TO AROUND 1.75 G/KG. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AS THE SHORT
WAVE DEPARTS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.

USED A BLEND OF COOLER MET GUIDANCE NORTH AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE NOTED OVER DETROIT MICHIGAN WILL HEAD
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE AREA.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. IF THE WARM FRONT REACHES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT LIFTS NORTHOF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE PROCESS. COLD POOL
ALOFT MOVES IN DURING THE DAY WITH -14C AT 500 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MODEL CAPES ARE FORECAST AT 500-1000 JOULES...AND ANY SUNSHINE WILL
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER...LIKELY PULSE STORMS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS US IN A SEE TEXT NOTATION. 850 TEMPS AT
11-12C...MIXING SHOULD BRING US TO MAX TEMPS OF 75 TO 80.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WITH
A 100 KNOT UPPER JET CORE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND
WITH SECTIONS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING -18C AT 500 MB...THE
NAM HAS -20C AT THE CORE. EVEN IF -20C IS NOT REALIZED THERE IS
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT TO AGAIN DESTABILIZE THE COLUMN...AND WITH
ANY SURFACE HEATING THIS WOULD ONLY INTENSIFY THE INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...THE AIR ALOFT REMAINS MOIST AND THE GROUND SHOULD STILL BE WET
FROM RECENT RAIN. MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...DYNAMICS.  THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN MOST OF OUR AREA AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE OFF BY SUNDAY MIDDAY.
OVERALL THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE STABLE DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPS AROUND 10C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT SEEMS IN TATTERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY...SO DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY...SO WE
WENT WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN DRYING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LITTLE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST AT KBOS-KORH-KMHT THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND PERHAPS MVFR FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG PATCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS EAST...MVFR SOUTH AND WEST. EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG PATCHES OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LIGHT EASTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING. SEAS NEAR 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS NEAR 4 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DIMINISHING SEAS AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SUN/MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE RISK FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 020850
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.  THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY TURN A
LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY.
WAVY FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS CROSSING EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND NEAR THE
HARTFORD AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
LOCATED NEAR WILMINGTON DELAWARE. THIS WILL BE TRACKING STEADILY
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXTRAPOLATION
BRINGS THIS SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AND SHEAR
NOTED AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO RISING
TO AROUND 1.75 G/KG. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AS THE SHORT
WAVE DEPARTS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.

USED A BLEND OF COOLER MET GUIDANCE NORTH AND WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
SOUTH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE NOTED OVER DETROIT MICHIGAN WILL HEAD
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INTO THE AREA.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. IF THE WARM FRONT REACHES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS NEW ENG DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH SO UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.  THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AND SOME WET
PERIODS BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATER PERIODS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LINGER INTO THU EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION MOVES EWD ACROSS
SNE...THEN WX SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST.
WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG LIKELY THU NIGHT.

FRI...SFC AND MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA BUT WE HAVE
A DECENT COLD POOL MOVING IN WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -14C TO
-15C WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SUPPORTS MORE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH.  DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR IS WEAK SO EXPECT MAINLY PULSE STORMS BUT CANT RULE
OUT A SEVERE HAIL REPORT GIVEN COLD POOL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE FRI EVENING...THEN DRYING
OVERNIGHT.

SAT...ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DROPPING SWD INTO NEW ENG WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALOFT.  GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCD COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
-20C...BUT ECMWF/GGEM MORE CONSERVATIVE AND IS PROBABLY MORE
REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS BEST CHC CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH OUR NW ZONES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE.
THERE MAY BE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN SO IT APPEARS BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NW
ZONES WHERE WE WILL HAVE CHC AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.  NOTHING YET
FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.  STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROF BUT CORE OF THE JET AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE COAST SO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN.

SAT MAY END UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAXES
AROUND 80 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

SUN...MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENG WITH DRIER NW FLOW SO
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.  TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MON THROUGH WED...LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN.  MEAN TROF WILL BE IN THE NE BUT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IS PROBLEMATIC.  LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD AND FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST AT KBOS-KORH-KMHT THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND PERHAPS MVFR FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
FOG PATCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS EAST...MVFR SOUTH AND WEST. EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FOG PATCHES OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG SHOULD IMPROVE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LIGHT EASTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS MORNING. SEAS NEAR 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS NEAR 4 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE LINGERING INTO
SAT...THEN DIMINISHING SEAS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SUN/MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE RISK FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 020834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...STILL PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 330 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS FROM THE
GFS40 OVERALYED CONTINUES TO SHOW A GREAT LAKES CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING NEAR LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. ROUND 3 OF ACTIVE WEATHER
IS BEGINNING WITH THIS CUTOFF. THE 2ND ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER RESULTED IN SEVERAL FLASH FLOODS IN AN AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION. THERE WAS ALSO A MINOR SEVERE EVENT WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.

THE INTERESTING FEATURE TO DEAL WITH FIRST TODAY IS THE SFC
TROUGH/OR WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BASED
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF. THE LATEST MSAS
DATA SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN NJ. ANOTHER WEAK
SFC WAVE CLOSER TO THE CUTOFF IS OVER WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING ERN NY. IT IS A SYNOPTIC RAINBAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE CUTOFF. WE HAVE SEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SOME OF THE CUTOFF
CASES IN CSTAR WITH THE UALBANY /FOR EXAMPLE...14-17 JUL 2000/.

THE HYDRO PUMP CONTINUES TO BE PRIMED OVER THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FORECAST FOR THE CONTINUE POTENTIAL OF
FLASH FLOODING. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE WITH THE 00Z
KALB SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUE OF 1.43".
THIS VALUE IS ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. WE ARE
EXPECTING PWATS BASED ON THE NAM/GFS TO BE IN THE 1.25-1.66" RANGE
TODAY. THE GFS HAS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE /1000-850 HPA/ AXIS
SHIFTING WEST OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CATSKILLS...WHILE THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW IT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H850 FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT
10-20 KTS FROM THE S/SE. WE ARE EXPECTING TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN AN HOUR.

THE NEBULOUS AREA IN THE FCST IS SEVERE WEATHER. SPC CONTINUES TO
HAVE FROM APPROX THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH IN A SLIGHT
RISK. WE AGREE THAT ONCE THIS RAINBAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WAVE...THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY
CLEAR A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SE MI/WRN LAKE ERIE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
IN THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES OF
750-1250 J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH WITH BETTER SFC
DEWPOINTS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO POSSIBLY U60S NEAR KPOU. THE NAM
SHOWS LESS SBCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH LIFTED INDICES
OF -1C TO -3C. THE DEEP BULK SHEAR /0-6 KM/ IN BOTH MODELS
CONTINUES TO BE 30-35 KTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AND THE BERKSHIRES. A BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
A CLUSTER/LINE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE ARE AROUND 6C/KM...SO A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS COULD
OCCUR...IF ENOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WE DON/T THINK SRN VT WILL BE IN THE
MIX...SO IN THE GRIDS/ZONES WE WILL PHRASE IT FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...THAT A FEW STORMS
MAYBE SEVERE. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HVY RAINFALL.
MORE DISCUSSION ON RAINFALL IN THE NEXT SEGMENT.

TEMPS TODAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MORNING RAINFALL. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE AVN/NAM MOS MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TIED TO
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SFC WAVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND VT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE
HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE FOLLOWED HPC
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. THE LATEST ECMWF DOES HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE WRN ZONES INTO CNTRL NY...AS THE SFC WAVE IS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER CLOSED TROUGH TURNING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. IT WOULD HELP IF
THIS RAIN DID FALL WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER
YESTERDAYS DELUGE. NONETHELESS...WE ARE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 10Z/FRI TO COVER THE HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE PLACED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
CLEARING...AND RECENTLY WET GROUND.

FRIDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH THE CUTOFF
FINALLY OPENING AND MOVING A BIT OVER SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE DIURNAL
HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE COOLING CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM.
THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE AREA.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A RESIDUAL MOIST AXIS IS TRICKY AT TIMES...WITH
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH CUTOFFS. WE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION ON FRI.
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A SEE TEXT FOR NOW.

FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY REINFORCING THE CUTOFF
SLIDING DOWNSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS A POOL OF
VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. H850 TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA
MAY ONLY BE 6-9C FROM NW TO SE FOR JULY 4TH. THAT IS ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AT THAT LEVEL BY A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ! WE MAY ONLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID 60S TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD POOL AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. THEY WILL BE TIED TO THE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE WENT SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND
CHANCE VALUES NORTH AND WEST. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SIMMER DOWN BEFORE THE INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING SHOWS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE LOW AND STUBBORN H5 TROF FINALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH
WEAK...WILL CREST OVER FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. THE NET RESULT LOOKS
TO FINALLY BE SOME DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF H5 TROF AXIS AS WELL AS SFC
LOW TRACK BTWN GFS AND ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH GIVE FA SOME QPF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FASTER TO MOVE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVING OFF EAST COAST. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW AND THUS MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ONE DIFFERENCE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PA AND SE NY ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW IN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AREA
OF PCPN EXPECTED TO REACH KPOU AROUND 08Z AND KALB AND KGFL BTWN
09Z AND 11Z. SOME OF THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE HEAVY ONCE AGAIN AND
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER
ONSET. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IT LOOKS EVEN
LESS CERTAIN THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS TO WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE
MOST WIDESPREAD. WILL LEAVE SHOWERS AND MENTION OF CB IN AT KGFL
AND KALB BUT REDUCE TO VCSH AT KPOU AS LESS CERTAIN FARTHER S.

WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS...MIST...AND FOG.
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL BACK TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT
ON FRIDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 5-10
MPH...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW AT AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION...LOWERING ZONE FFG VALUES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY YESTERDAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...15
HYDROLOGY...WASULA/RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 020553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THEY
MAY ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.  NEXT SHORT
WAVE WAS ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST PA AND BASED ON PURE
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THIS BATCH INTO THE CWA WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS
OVERNIGHT.  WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE WHERE THEY SHOULD SETTLE AND
SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 60 OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM WAS CROSSING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH
SHOULD BE OUR CULPRIT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AM.  WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD PHASE OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION
FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD.   BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL
DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST AS THE GFS MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAVE OPTED TO POPULATE THE EXTENDED
GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MOSTLY TO BLEND
BETTER WITH ADJOINING WFOS. FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH A WEAK HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  A WEAK IMPULSE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE MOSTLY
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW AND THUS MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ONE DIFFERENCE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PA AND SE NY ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW IN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AREA
OF PCPN EXPECTED TO REACH KPOU AROUND 08Z AND KALB AND KGFL BTWN
09Z AND 11Z. SOME OF THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE HEAVY ONCE AGAIN AND
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER
ONSET. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IT LOOKS EVEN
LESS CERTAIN THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS TO WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE
MOST WIDESPREAD. WILL LEAVE SHOWERS AND MENTION OF CB IN AT KGFL
AND KALB BUT REDUCE TO VCSH AT KPOU AS LESS CERTAIN FARTHER S.

WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS...MIST...AND FOG.
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT...FALL BACK TO 70 TO 90
PERCENT THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 100 PERCENT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOG DRIP AND/OR DEW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 10
MPH...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...HIGH CAPE VALUES...HIGH PWATS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
ANOTHER PCPN MAXIMUM OF 1-3 INCHES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL TEND TO MOVE S/SW TO
THE N/NE TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE
DOWNPOURS OF AN INCH OR SO IN LESS THAN AN HOUR MAY OCCUR. THE
THREAT OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE S/SW FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE 1-HR ZONE FFG VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE HSA. WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING.

ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS
COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL...SO WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...KOLECI
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KOLECI
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 020328
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1128 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.  THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY TURN A
LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BY EXTRAPOLATION
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM 09Z SOUTHWEST TO 12Z NORTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT S OF NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY CONVECTION FIRING OUT OF THE
OCEAN HAS INDICATIONS IN A NUMBER OF MODELS TO BECOME ACTIVE ALONG
THE SNE COAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE
TO A 700 MB SPEED MAX OF NRLY 40 KTS JUST S OF LI AND THE SLOW
EVOLUTION SHOULD SEE HEAVY CONVECTION SOMEHOW REFORM NORTHWARD ONTO
THE SNE COAST BY DAWN THURSDAY. THE CONCERN IS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF E CT...OR RI/SE MASS NR THE I95
CORRIDOR. WE ALSO THINK THAT IN THE MORNING HOURS...HEAVIEST
CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND NR THE SNE COAST. STRONGER SHEAR AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MODELED MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD YIELD EVEN STRONGER
STORMS.

THEN...IN THE AFTN HEAVY CONVECTION COULD SHIFT INLAND WHERE BETTER
CAPE/SBLI....BUT THAT IS AN UNKNOWN ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS EASTERN MASS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD FROM SOUTH OF RHODE ISLAND
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY AND THE FRONT. EASTERN MASS IS
INCREDIBLY MOIST AND MODELS PREDICT THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THESE STORMS WILL END UP...THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY
BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CONNECTICUT INTO RHODE ISLAND AND THE SOUTH
COAST. SOME LOCATIONS TODAY HAVE RECEIVED FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF
RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. GIVEN THIS AND THE HIGH PWAT
VALUES /1 TO NEARLY 2 TIMES NORMAL/...THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN. WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE. THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH BEFORE
WE GET THE FRONT MOVING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS THREAT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS NEW ENG DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH SO UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.  THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AND SOME WET
PERIODS BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATER PERIODS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LINGER INTO THU EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION MOVES EWD ACROSS
SNE...THEN WX SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST.
WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG LIKELY THU NIGHT.

FRI...SFC AND MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA BUT WE HAVE
A DECENT COLD POOL MOVING IN WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -14C TO
-15C WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SUPPORTS MORE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH.  DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR IS WEAK SO EXPECT MAINLY PULSE STORMS BUT CANT RULE
OUT A SEVERE HAIL REPORT GIVEN COLD POOL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE FRI EVENING...THEN DRYING
OVERNIGHT.

SAT...ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DROPPING SWD INTO NEW ENG WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALOFT.  GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCD COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
-20C...BUT ECMWF/GGEM MORE CONSERVATIVE AND IS PROBABLY MORE
REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS BEST CHC CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH OUR NW ZONES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE.
THERE MAY BE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN SO IT APPEARS BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NW
ZONES WHERE WE WILL HAVE CHC AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.  NOTHING YET
FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.  STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROF BUT CORE OF THE JET AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE COAST SO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN.

SAT MAY END UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAXES
AROUND 80 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

SUN...MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENG WITH DRIER NW FLOW SO
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.  TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MON THROUGH WED...LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN.  MEAN TROF WILL BE IN THE NE BUT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IS PROBLEMATIC.  LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD AND FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VSBY
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.
VSBY SHOULD BE BELOW 1/2 MILE ALL NIGHT AT ORH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN WESTERN CT AND WESTERN MA THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE IS ALONG THE MA PIKE AND
NORTHWARD.

THURSDAY...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE SO WILL POP NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN HAZE BY NOON MOST
PLACES. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN
AREAS OF IFR ST/FOG POSSIBLE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH
THE EVENING.  LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD ALLOW SEAS TO REACH NEAR 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW VISIBILITIES IN
FOG DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE LINGERING INTO
SAT...THEN DIMINISHING SEAS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SUN/MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PAST 2 EVENINGS AND ESPECIALLY TODAY HAVE PROVEN THAT THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING BACKBUILDING OF
CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COAST OF NJ...ADDITIONAL STORMS SET
UP OVER THE INTERIOR.  AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE IN NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUED STORM MOTION FROM THE SW WILL BRING THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AS WELL.  AS A
RESULT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING HOISTED ACROSS MA/CT/RI.

WATCH LASTS INTO THU EVENING. WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT RISK FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT INCLUDING THE A BRIEF MONTHLY
SUMMARY FOR AN UNUSUALLY COOL AND MOIST JUNE. MONTHLY CLIMATE
REPORTS WILL BE CREATED SHORTLY FOR BOS BDL PVD AND ORH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/GAF
MARINE...KJC/RLG
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 020207
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1007 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THEY
MAY ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.  NEXT SHORT
WAVE WAS ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST PA AND BASED ON PURE
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THIS BATCH INTO THE CWA WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS
OVERNIGHT.  WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE WHERE THEY SHOULD SETTLE AND
SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 60 OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM WAS CROSSING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH
SHOULD BE OUR CULPRIT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AM.  WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD PHASE OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION
FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD.   BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL
DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST AS THE GFS MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAVE OPTED TO POPULATE THE EXTENDED
GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MOSTLY TO BLEND
BETTER WITH ADJOINING WFOS. FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH A WEAK HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  A WEAK IMPULSE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE MOSTLY
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TEMPORARILY IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR ALBANY WHERE THE VISIBILITY WAS
STILL MVFR IN -SHRA/BR. HOWEVER THIS PERIOD OF VFR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST MORE THAN ABOUT TWO HOURS AS VISIBLITY AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS...MIST...AND LOW
STRATUS BY 02Z...AND FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR BY 04Z. DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPECTED WITH VISIBLITY LESS THAN A MILE IN FOG AND CEILINGS
BELOW 500 FEET AGL...AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE AIR FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
LIGHT MOSTLY FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING...AND THEY
ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY CALM AFTER 04Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...WITH LOW CLOUDS...
MIST...HAZE...AND RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS...MIST...AND FOG.
FRI-SUN...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND
SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT...FALL BACK TO 70 TO 90
PERCENT THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 100 PERCENT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOG DRIP AND/OR DEW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 10
MPH...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...HIGH CAPE VALUES...HIGH PWATS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
ANOTHER PCPN MAXIMUM OF 1-3 INCHES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL TEND TO MOVE S/SW TO
THE N/NE TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE
DOWNPOURS OF AN INCH OR SO IN LESS THAN AN HOUR MAY OCCUR. THE
THREAT OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE S/SW FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE 1-HR ZONE FFG VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE HSA. WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING.

ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS
COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL...SO WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...KOLECI
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...VTK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 020006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
806 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.  YET
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE SATURDAY
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY.  THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN MAY TURN A
LITTLE DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH MORE
LOW PRES IN SRN VA. THIS HAS COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THANKS
TO A 250MB JET STREAK...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS PAST AFTERNOON.

SVR WARNINGS WERE PRODUCED USING A COMBO OF 50 DB TO 30K...BUT WE
FOUND ROTATION WAS THE KEY INGREDIENT THAT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE THE
WET MICROBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE LSR IS UP TO DATE AS OF 750 PM
THIS EVENING. FFMP AND STP/OHP AS PRODUCED BY KBOX WE THOUGHT WAS
HIGHLY ACCURATE TODAY. THE PWATS WERE ONLY ARD 1.6 INCHES BUT LOW LVL
CNV WITH VILS TO NR 55 WERE ABLE TO PRODUCE GULLY WASHERS.

THE FRONT S OF NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY CONVECTION FIRING OUT OF THE
OCEAN HAS INDICATIONS IN A NUMBER OF MODELS TO BECOME ACTIVE ALONG
THE SNE COAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO A
700 MB SPEED MAX OF NRLY 40 KTS JUST S OF LI AND THE SLOW EVOLUTION
SHOULD SEE HEAVY CONVECTION SOMEHOW REFORM NORTHWARD ONTO THE SNE
COAST BY DAWN THURSDAY. THE CONCERN IS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN IN PARTS OF E CT...OR RI/SE MASS NR THE I95 CORRIDOR.
WE ALSO THINK THAT IN THE MORNING HOURS...HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL BE
FOUND NR THE SNE COAST. STRONGER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MODELED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD YIELD EVEN STRONGER STORMS.

THEN...IN THE AFTN HEAVY CONVECTION COULD SHIFT INLAND WHERE BETTER
CAPE/SBLI....BUT THAT IS AN UNKNOWN ATTM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS EASTERN MASS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD FROM SOUTH OF RHODE ISLAND
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW JERSEY AND THE FRONT. EASTERN MASS IS
INCREDIBLY MOIST AND MODELS PREDICT THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THESE STORMS WILL END UP...THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY
BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CONNECTICUT INTO RHODE ISLAND AND THE SOUTH
COAST. SOME LOCATIONS TODAY HAVE RECEIVED FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF
RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. GIVEN THIS AND THE HIGH PWAT
VALUES /1 TO NEARLY 2 TIMES NORMAL/...THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS RHODE
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN. WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE. THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH BEFORE
WE GET THE FRONT MOVING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS THREAT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS NEW ENG DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH SO UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.  THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AND SOME WET
PERIODS BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
LATER PERIODS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LINGER INTO THU EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT/OCCLUSION MOVES EWD ACROSS
SNE...THEN WX SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST.
WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG LIKELY THU NIGHT.

FRI...SFC AND MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA BUT WE HAVE
A DECENT COLD POOL MOVING IN WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -14C TO
-15C WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
SUPPORTS MORE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH CHC POPS TO THE SOUTH.  DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR IS WEAK SO EXPECT MAINLY PULSE STORMS BUT CANT RULE
OUT A SEVERE HAIL REPORT GIVEN COLD POOL.

LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE FRI EVENING...THEN DRYING
OVERNIGHT.

SAT...ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DROPPING SWD INTO NEW ENG WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ALOFT.  GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCD COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
-20C...BUT ECMWF/GGEM MORE CONSERVATIVE AND IS PROBABLY MORE
REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS BEST CHC CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH OUR NW ZONES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE.
THERE MAY BE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN SO IT APPEARS BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION IN SNE WILL BE ACROSS NW
ZONES WHERE WE WILL HAVE CHC AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.  NOTHING YET
FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.  STRONG MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROF BUT CORE OF THE JET AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE COAST SO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN.

SAT MAY END UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAXES
AROUND 80 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

SUN...MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENG WITH DRIER NW FLOW SO
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.  TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

MON THROUGH WED...LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN.  MEAN TROF WILL BE IN THE NE BUT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH IS PROBLEMATIC.  LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD AND FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VSBY
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.
VSBY SHOULD BE BELOW 1/2 MILE ALL NIGHT AT ORH. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN WESTERN CT AND WESTERN MA THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ANYWHERE ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCE IS ALONG THE MA PIKE AND
NORTHWARD.

THURSDAY...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE SO WILL POP NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN HAZE BY NOON MOST
PLACES. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS...THEN
AREAS OF IFR ST/FOG POSSIBLE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...AREAS OF IFR IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS DIMINISH.  AREAS OF IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE INTERIOR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH
THE EVENING.  LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL COULD ALLOW SEAS TO REACH NEAR 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW VISIBILITIES IN
FOG DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE LINGERING INTO
SAT...THEN DIMINISHING SEAS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SUN/MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE PAST 2 EVENINGS AND ESPECIALLY TODAY HAVE PROVEN THAT THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DURING THIS
AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING BACKBUILDING OF
CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE COAST OF NJ...ADDITIONAL STORMS SET
UP OVER THE INTERIOR.  AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE IN NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUED STORM MOTION FROM THE SW WILL BRING THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AS WELL.  AS A
RESULT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING HOISTED ACROSS MA/CT/RI.

WATCH LASTS INTO THU EVENING. WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
COLD POOL ALOFT RISK FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MORE CONVECTION LIKELY THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT INCLUDING THE A BRIEF MONTHLY
SUMMARY FOR AN UNUSUALLY COOL AND MOIST JUNE. MONTHLY CLIMATE
REPORTS WILL BE CREATED SHORTLY FOR BOS BDL PVD AND ORH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...DRAG/RLG 806P
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/GAF
MARINE...KJC/RLG
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 012341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 536 WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING...FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FOG/STRATUS WHICH COVERED THE REGION TOOK ITS TIME BURNING
OFF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT NOW THAT IT HAS DONE SO THE SUN
WAS DECREASING STABILITY AND CONVECTION WAS FIRING UP ACROSS THE
REGION WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME A VERY ACTIVE
AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVING NORTH. DID SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBS. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE CAPES 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES FROM THE
12Z SOUNDINGS WERE 1.0 TO 1.4 INCHES. STEERING WINDS WERE
AROUND 30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
02Z FRIDAY OR 10PM THURSDAY. BY THEN WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
HEAVY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. LIFTED INDEXES MINUS
MINUS 2 TO MINUS 6 BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE LOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE
HIGH THURSDAY...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MET/MOS AND
THE MAV/MOS GUIDANCE...AND PRIMARILY USED THE NAM-12 FOR THE
WINDS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTER
NOON HOURS.

THE CUTOFF LOW AT 500 HPA IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AM.  WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.  ON
SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT LOOKS
LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD PHASE OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD.   BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL DROP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST AS THE GFS MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAVE OPTED TO POPULATE THE EXTENDED
GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MOSTLY TO BLEND
BETTER WITH ADJOINING WFOS. FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH A WEAK HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  A WEAK IMPULSE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE MOSTLY
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TEMPORARILY IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR ALBANY WHERE THE VISIBILITY WAS
STILL MVFR IN -SHRA/BR. HOWEVER THIS PERIOD OF VFR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST MORE THAN ABOUT TWO HOURS AS VISIBLITY AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS...MIST...AND LOW
STRATUS BY 02Z...AND FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR BY 04Z. DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPECTED WITH VISIBLITY LESS THAN A MILE IN FOG AND CEILINGS
BELOW 500 FEET AGL...AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE AIR FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
LIGHT MOSTLY FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING...AND THEY
ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY CALM AFTER 04Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...WITH LOW CLOUDS...
MIST...HAZE...AND RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS...MIST...AND FOG.
FRI-SUN...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND
SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT...FALL BACK TO 70 TO 90
PERCENT THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 100 PERCENT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOG DRIP AND/OR DEW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 10
MPH...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...HIGH CAPE VALUES...HIGH PWATS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
ANOTHER PCPN MAXIMUM OF 1-3 INCHES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL TEND TO MOVE S/SW TO
THE N/NE TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE
DOWNPOURS OF AN INCH OR SO IN LESS THAN AN HOUR MAY OCCUR. THE
THREAT OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE S/SW FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE 1-HR ZONE FFG VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE HSA. WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING.

ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS
COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL...SO WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...KOLECI
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...VTK
HYDROLOGY...RCK