[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032018
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE NAM AND THE
GFS BOTH DEPICT A WEAK S/W MVG TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATER THIS
EVNG (ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE
TWO)...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE/TIDEWATER/NE NC THROUGH MIDNIGHT SHOULD THIS FEATURE BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY ISOLD SHRA. OTHERWISE...LOOKIING FOR PCLDY
SKIES LATER TONIGHT FOR ANY EARLY FIREWORKS SHOWS AND GNRLY QUIET
CONDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT CLEAR AND DRY WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH BY
MIDDAY BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER E VA SHOULD KEEP THINGS
RELATIVELY CLEAR. BY EVNG HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ESP OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE HIGH MVS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE MVS INTO THE TN VALLEY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO OUR NW COUNTIES BY AFTN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5
INCHES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LVL DRY
AIR (AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC) TO HOLD BACK ANY SIG
CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL LATE EVNG. LOOKING FOR DECENT CLOUD CVR
AROUND TIME FOR FIREWORKS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER.
LOW MVS INTO VA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH FROPA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MON MORNING. CHOSE TO LINGER POPS IN THE SE THROUGH MON
MORNING...BUT CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD
ON SUN DUE TO RA/CLOUDS...AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO MID 80S SE.
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID
80S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
WINDS BECOMING MORE ENE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL FAVOR
THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS (WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW ACRS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. OVERALL THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TELECONNECTION PATTERN
SUPPORTS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN...WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH STRONG VORT
MAX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY WED LEADING TO THAT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL FCST MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AKQ CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
TUE/WED/THU...AND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FRI (AS THE HIGH
TRACKS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A RETURN SLY FLOW).
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
SCT-BKN CU/SC THIS AFTN 4-5 K. SLGT CHC OF SWRS THIS AFTN MAINLY
VCNTY SBY. OVERNITE SKY CLEARS BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE DO NOT
LOOK FOR BR..XCPT SBY WHERE MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT CHC FOR MVFR
CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM ANOTHER BRIEF AND MARGINAL NNW SURGE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT/ERLY SAT...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS
OVER THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY
SUN NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA
LVLS)...SW AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SUN NIGHT THEN GO MORE NORTHERLY
BY MONDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE. PROBLEM COULD BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES IF THE BNDRY TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH
(THEN THESE AREAS WOULD SEE NNE FLOW SUN/SUN NGT). STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR PTNTL FLAGS SUN NIGHT OR MON...AND
AGAIN INTO MIDWEEK AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM
NEAR TERM...JYM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...LKB
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031936
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CAUSED
THE RECENT SPELL OF COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY
LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO MOVING
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SHOWERS
TO LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS STUBBORNLY REFUSED TO EXIT THE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL
BE SHOVED OUT BY A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL RESTRICT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OH AND WV COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM MOST RECENT NAM AND SREF MODEL RUNS...STILL EXPECT
INTERSTATE 70 TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM MODEL RUN HAS ALSO
SUGGESTED THERE IS A CHANCE OF A POST SYSTEM CONVERGENCE BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY DAYTIME SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME MONDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SREF MODEL MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW
THIS...SO ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THIS
PERIOD TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD BUT TOO HARD TO TIME TO INCLUDE NO HIGHER MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE WEEK. &&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...STILL THINK
THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS IN
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL SIMPLY INCLUDE SCATTERED CIGS TO HINT AT
THIS POSSIBILITY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE REGION MIGHT BRING MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 031915
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
AWAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE POPCORN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS CAPES DIMINISH AND THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MAINLY CLR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SHOWERS TODAY, BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING, IT SHOULD NOT GET
TOO BAD, AND I HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SAT THE 4TH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S UP NORTH AND LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO THE SW
SAT MORNING AND IT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.
A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SAT MORNING AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
RATHER FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SHEAR OUT AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH LATER SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
IT IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING EXTRA CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND A CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
FCST FOR NOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. THE LATEST (00Z) ECMWF AND
12Z GFS BOTH SHOW A CLOSE PASS (THE GFS IS CLOSER) AND IT IS
THOUGHT TO BE PRUDENT TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT, SO 4TH OF
JULY ACTIVITIES SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING. THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY LOOKS BENIGN AT THIS POINT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA. AT 12Z MON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
ONTARIO AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE WEEK TO EVENTUALLY TRACK OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENINGS WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE TOO. THE POPS IN THE PRESENT
FCST ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE FOR NOW BUT THEY
MAY TREND UPWARD WITH FUTURE FCSTS ONCE THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SW/S BECOMES BETTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL MON-WED WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES.
THE LAST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MORE LIKE TYPICAL
MIDDLE ATLANTIC SUMMER WEATHER. THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
BOTH DEVELOP A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING H8 TEMPS
TOO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 BY THIS TIME
NEXT WEEK ACROSS METRO PHILADELPHIA AND THE DELMARVA. THE THU-FRI
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. THE DISTURBANCE, IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING, RESULTED IN SOME FAIRLY WELL
DEVELOPED CUMULUS OVER OUR REGION. SOME OF THE CUMULUS WERE
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
AREAS, INCLUDING AROUND KABE, KRDG AND KTTN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DECREASES FROM KPNE AND KPHL SOUTHWARD.
ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR EAST, THE CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
A WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE FOR TONIGHT,
REMAINING LIGHT AND WESTERLY AT SOME LOCATIONS AND BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT OTHERS. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A WEST WIND AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NEW WEEK.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 031909
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
309 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BUILD OVERHEAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE OVERNIGHT WILL TURN OUT DRY
AND SEASONABLY MILD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT POPS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE MID 80S IN WASHINGTON DC.
A BAND OF MID LVL CNVGNC/FORCING ENTERS THE PICTURE FM W TO E SAT
EVE. NAM12 GOING A LTL QUICKER/STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
GIVEN ONGOING WK INSTBY THINK IT/S PRUDENT TO KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
EVNG FCST. SINCE LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA WL IMPV THRU THE NGT...WL ALSO
PROVIDE AN INCRG TREND...SPREADING SOME LKLY POPS BY MIDNGT. ATTM...
HIEST POPS WL BE ACRS SRN HALF OF CWFA /DC-OKV SOUTH/...BUT
ULTIMATELY IT WL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP.
WL BE LOSING CONNECTION TO BNDRY LYR OVNGT...BUT FORCING IMPVS
FURTHER. WL REPRESENT THAT IN WX GRIDS BY SHRA/SCHC TSRA.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST S OF CWFA. ALTHO DONT
THINK THAT SHRA WL BE CONTINUOUS...FVRBL LIFT WL PROVIDE POTENTIAL.
AS WITH SAT NGT...THE SRN HALF OF CWFA WL BE CLOSEST TO THE
FORCING...AND WL CARRY THE HIEST POPS. AS LOW TRACKS OFF DELMARVA
COAST MID-LT AFTN...DRIER AIR WL INFILTRATE FM THE N/NW.
IN ADDITION...INSTBY VIRTUALLY NIL AS COLUMN WL BE TOO SATD AND WNDS
WL BE NLY. WL CARRY WX TYPE AS SHRA. THE LLVL MSTR/SHRA WL ALSO
IMPEDE TEMP RISES. WL KEEP MAXT IN THE 70S...HIEST ACRS THE N WHERE
PCPN WL BE SCARCEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES RDG NOSES EWD IN WAKE OF LOW SUN NGT-MON. WL TRAIL POPS OFF
DURING THE EVE...AND GO DRY SUN OVNGT-MON. AS CAA/NLY FLOW PICKS UP
DURING DAY...CLDS WL SCT OUT AS MEAN LYR RH LOW...MAKING FOR A
SUNNY/DRY DAY ON MON. BOTH MIN-T AND MAXT MON WL BE UNDER CLIMO...AS
DEWPTS PROGGED IN THE 50S.
XTNDD FCST ACRS CONUS WL FEATURE TROFS ALNG THE ATLC AND PAC CSTS
AND BROAD RDGG ACRS THE CNTR OF THE CNTRY. THE RDGG WL BE BLDG EWD
AS LOPRES IN CNDN MARITIMES EJECTS INTO THE NRN ATLC. H5 FLOW FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED... AND AS SUCH...EVOLUTION WL BE ON THE SLOER SIDE.
HOPEFULLY...THAT WL PERMIT A PD OF MORE STBL WX. WL GO W/ A
BASICALLY DRY FCST TUE-FRI. TEMPS WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FM SEASONAL
NORMS...ALTHO MIN-T W OF BLURDG WL BE RATHER COOL BASED ON DEWPTS
WHICH STILL WL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY CUD
BUILD BY WEEKS END...BUT WUD RATHER SEE SVRL CONSECUTIVE RUNS
TRENDING THAT WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY THE
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY...PRBLY MVFR ALTHO BRIEF PDS OF IFR PSBL.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME OVNGT BR SUN NGT AS LLVLS WL BE MOIST FM DEPARTING
RAIN. HWVR...DEWPTS LOW AND AMS MAY REMAIN MIXED.
VFR CONDS XPCTD INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN
SCA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS
FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LACK OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH WATERS SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN.
TSRA SAT NGT LKLY WL BE ELEVATED...THO LTNG WL STILL BE A RISK. WND
DIR WL BE QUICK TRICKY SAT EVE...AS SLY FLOW ACRS VA AND NLY FLOW FM
PTMC HIGHLANDS WL CONVERGE. THERE MAY BE SCA TYPE WNDS ONT HE MID
BAY...BUT WAY TOO UNCERTAINOF THAT TO PLACE IN GRIDS ATTM. OVRALL...
WNDS SHUD ATTAIN A NELY TRAJ BY ELY SUN...AND BACK NW BY SUN AFTN.
PD OF PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW MON. APPEARS AS THO HIER WNDS MIX OUT
PRIOR TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED TUE-WED EITHER.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031845
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE NAM AND THE
GFS BOTH DEPICT A WEAK S/W MVG TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATER THIS
EVNG (ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE
TWO)...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE/TIDEWATER/NE NC THROUGH MIDNIGHT SHOULD THIS FEATURE BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY ISOLD SHRA. OTHERWISE...LOOKIING FOR PCLDY
SKIES LATER TONIGHT FOR ANY EARLY FIREWORKS SHOWS AND GNRLY QUIET
CONDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT CLEAR AND DRY WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH BY
MIDDAY BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER E VA SHOULD KEEP THINGS
RELATIVELY CLEAR. BY EVNG HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ESP OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE HIGH MVS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE MVS INTO THE TN VALLEY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO OUR NW COUNTIES BY AFTN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5
INCHES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LVL DRY
AIR (AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC) TO HOLD BACK ANY SIG
CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL LATE EVNG. LOOKING FOR DECENT CLOUD CVR
AROUND TIME FOR FIREWORKS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER.
LOW MVS INTO VA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH FROPA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MON MORNING. CHOSE TO LINGER POPS IN THE SE THROUGH MON
MORNING...BUT CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD
ON SUN DUE TO RA/CLOUDS...AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO MID 80S SE.
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID
80S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
WINDS BECOMING MORE ENE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
SCT-BKN CU/SC THIS AFTN 4-5 K. SLGT CHC OF SWRS THIS AFTN MAINLY
VCNTY SBY. OVERNITE SKY CLEARS BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE DO NOT
LOOK FOR BR..XCPT SBY WHERE MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT CHC FOR MVFR
CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NW SURGE DID OCCUR DRNG PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT SPEEDS GNRLY STAYED
BLO 20 KTS. MWS WAS ISSUED FOR THE GUSTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU SAT NITE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR
THE AREA WITH LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE.
XPCT WNDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD
OF FTR SUN NITE THEN GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS
OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS
SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM
NEAR TERM...JYM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...LKB
000
FXUS61 KPHI 031743
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
140 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MAINLY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL SWING PAST THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY AGAIN AFFECT OUR
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PASS OFF THE COAST BY 300 PM. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES
A BIT.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN OUR REGION, WITH A WEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST AFTER
WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS, THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALSO, DEW POINTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, SO IT SHOULD NOT
BE VERY HUMID EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO TRY
AND WORK THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL COVER THIS FOR NOW, IF INDEED THAT HAPPENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS TO SWEEP DOWN TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER
LOWS CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-CONNECTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO GOING ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW AS THE DETAILS ARE STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH FEW...IF ANY...DAYS
WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE, IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING, HAS RESULTED IN
SOME FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS OVER OUR REGION. SOME OF THE
CUMULUS WERE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING KABE, KRDG
AND KTTN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DECREASES FROM KPNE AND KPHL
SOUTHWARD.
ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR EAST, THE CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
A WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE FOR TONIGHT,
REMAINING LIGHT AND WESTERLY AT SOME LOCATIONS AND BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT OTHERS. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A WEST WIND AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ONCE THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE LIFT AWAY, BUT SINCE WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL TURN A BIT UNSETTLED. WE DO NOT, HOWEVER, FORECAST THAT AT THIS
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM LATER TODAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DITTO FOR
SEAS. WE DON`T ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM.../ O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031720
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
120 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOL SHRAS CONTINUE TO PUSH E/NE ERLY THIS AM OVER PORTIONS OF SE
THIRD OF THE CWA. CAN NOT OUTRULE A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESP
OVER THE SRN MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE LOCALLY MOD RAIN FOR A SHORT
DURATION WITH SHRA ACTIVITY. ISOL CHCS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OVER NC ZONES THIS AM. MID LVL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER
THE RGN TDY WITH SOME SCT/BKN CU DVLPG IN THE AFTN. LIMITED CHCS
OF PRECIP LATER TDY BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT LATE DAY POPS
OVER THE FAR NE. THINK MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE RGN WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S N TO THE UPR 80S TO
NEAR 90 S (LOW MID 80S ALONG COASTLINE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TNT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT MID LVLS TO START OUT THE DAY ON SAT LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S FAR S. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE OVER THE
W/NW AS AN UPR LVL JET SAGS SWRD INTO THE RGN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSCD SHRTWV WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWST/OH VLY SAT NIGHT BRINGING THE CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS TMRW EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRAS DVLP LATE EVE.
ON SUN MDLS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CWA...BUT BEST CHCS OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA (ESP SW). IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES LONGER TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGHS ON
SUN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER THAN FCSTG IF MORE PRECIP DVLPS (ESP NRN
HALF).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
...SCT-BKN CU/SC THIS AFTN 4-5 K. SLGT CHC OF SWRS THIS AFTN
MAINLY VCNTY SBY. OVERNITE SKY CLEARS BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE DO
NOT LOOK FOR BR..XCPT SBY WHERE MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT CHC FOR MVFR
CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NW SURGE DID OCCUR DRNG PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT SPEEDS GNRLY STAYED
BLO 20 KTS. MWS WAS ISSUED FOR THE GUSTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU SAT NITE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR
THE AREA WITH LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE.
XPCT WNDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD
OF FTR SUN NITE THEN GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS
OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS
SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM
NEAR TERM...JYM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...LKB
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031522
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1122 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN. THE COMBINATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MOST PA COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS PERSISTED A BIT MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SEE NO REASON THAT THIS SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH MUCH BEFORE THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS IN WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH. LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW RUNNING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS WEEKEND...ANY RIPPLES ON THIS
WAVE TO THE NORTH...COLD PUSH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA
MORE IN LINE WITH PIT TO IND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAXES
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND A NORTHWEST ORIENTED 500H
PATTERN...EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF WET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY ONE
FEATURE AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL KEEP CURRENT DRY TREND GOING FOR
THE PERIOD...WITH LATER FORECASTS REFINING TIMING ON PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THIS UPCOMING
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO DEGRADED
CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS THAT ALL IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
LIFTED...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
TONIGHT...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR PORTS TO THE SOUTH OF PIT WHERE CROSSING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/MVFR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 031440 RRA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1040 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MAINLY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL SWING PAST THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY AGAIN AFFECT OUR
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE
THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT NOON AND 300 PM. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR REGION, AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES A BIT.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN OUR REGION, WITH A WEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST AFTER
WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS, THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALSO, DEW POINTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, SO IT SHOULD NOT
BE VERY HUMID EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO TRY
AND WORK THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL COVER THIS FOR NOW, IF INDEED THAT HAPPENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS TO SWEEP DOWN TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER
LOWS CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-CONNECTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO GOING ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW AS THE DETAILS ARE STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH FEW...IF ANY...DAYS
WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH TODAY WITH THE APPARENT LOSS OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WELL BEFORE 00Z. THERE
MAY BE A BIT MORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAN PROGGED IF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH CAN CAUSE A LITTLE BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS,
BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT. INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TODAY, BUT IT
IS NOT ROBUST. FACTORS DO NOT SEEM TO COME TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY TO
GO WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH GUIDANCE POPS, AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN LIMITING OUR MENTION OF
CONVECTION TO VCTS AND CB FOR THE TWO NORTHERN SITES AND CB FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY SITES. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF IT
OUT OF THE TWO SOUTHERN SITES. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. ALL THIS SPELLS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ONCE THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE LIFT AWAY, BUT SINCE WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL TURN A BIT UNSETTLED. WE DO NOT, HOWEVER, FORECAST THAT AT THIS
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM LATER TODAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DITTO FOR
SEAS. WE DON`T ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM.../ O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 031440
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1040 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MAINLY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL SWING PAST THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY AGAIN AFFECT OUR
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE
THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT NOON AND 300 PM. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR REGION, AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES A BIT.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN OUR REGION, WITH A WEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST AFTER
WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS, THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALSO, DEW POINTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, SO IT SHOULD NOT
BE VERY HUMID EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO TRY
AND WORK THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL COVER THIS FOR NOW, IF INDEED THAT HAPPENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS TO SWEEP DOWN TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER
LOWS CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-CONNECTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO GOING ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW AS THE DETAILS ARE STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH FEW...IF ANY...DAYS
WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH TODAY WITH THE APPARENT LOSS OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WELL BEFORE 00Z. THERE
MAY BE A BIT MORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAN PROGGED IF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH CAN CAUSE A LITTLE BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS,
BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT. INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TODAY, BUT IT
IS NOT ROBUST. FACTORS DO NOT SEEM TO COME TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY TO
GO WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH GUIDANCE POPS, AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN LIMITING OUR MENTION OF
CONVECTION TO VCTS AND CB FOR THE TWO NORTHERN SITES AND CB FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY SITES. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF IT
OUT OF THE TWO SOUTHERN SITES. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. ALL THIS SPELLS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ONCE THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE LIFT AWAY, BUT SINCE WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL TURN A BIT UNSETTLED. WE DO NOT, HOWEVER, FORECAST THAT AT THIS
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM LATER TODAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DITTO FOR
SEAS. WE DON`T ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM.../ O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KLWX 031351
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH
FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
A NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 60S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 80S IN
WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY DESPITE DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CU
BUILDUP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ANYTHING THAT FORMS SHD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT SUNSET. MIN TEMPS
50S...TO L60S URBAN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SUITE OF 0Z RUNS OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE DAY DRY.
HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAD BE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS...NOW LOOKS TO TRAVEL NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROF OF THIS WEEK
APPEARS TO BE LIFTING A LITTLE FASTER NEWARD OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE DISTURBANCE CLOSER AND LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...HAVE
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE LATE SAT THRU MONDAY. GFS/GEFS/ECMWF KEEP
THE AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT 0Z NAM
PROJECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.
SEASONAL TEMPS IN 80S SUNDAY...BUT CWA IS ON COOL SIDE OF SUNDAY
STORM SYSTEM...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME AREAS WILL STAY
IN THE 70S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS AND TSTMS RIDING ALONG
IT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH PULLING
THE FRONT EASTWARD AND DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO ENCROACH FROM THE SW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT.
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING OUT AT
10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOONS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY...MAKING BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT AREA AIRPORTS BE AT KCHO.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE GUSTING CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL CAP WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SETS UP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT LOOK TO RMN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RDH/BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RDH/SBK/BJL
MARINE...RDH/SBK/BJL
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031047
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
647 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOL SHRAS CONTINUE TO PUSH E/NE ERLY THIS AM OVER PORTIONS OF SE
THIRD OF THE CWA. CAN NOT OUTRULE A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESP
OVER THE SRN MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE LOCALLY MOD RAIN FOR A SHORT
DURATION WITH SHRA ACTIVITY. ISOL CHCS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OVER NC ZONES THIS AM. MID LVL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER
THE RGN TDY WITH SOME SCT/BKN CU DVLPG IN THE AFTN. LIMITED CHCS
OF PRECIP LATER TDY BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT LATE DAY POPS
OVER THE FAR NE. THINK MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE RGN WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S N TO THE UPR 80S TO
NEAR 90 S (LOW MID 80S ALONG COASTLINE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TNT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT MID LVLS TO START OUT THE DAY ON SAT LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S FAR S. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE OVER THE
W/NW AS AN UPR LVL JET SAGS SWRD INTO THE RGN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSCD SHRTWV WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWST/OH VLY SAT NIGHT BRINGING THE CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS TMRW EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRAS DVLP LATE EVE.
ON SUN MDLS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CWA...BUT BEST CHCS OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA (ESP SW). IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES LONGER TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGHS ON
SUN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER THAN FCSTG IF MORE PRECIP DVLPS (ESP NRN
HALF).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA STILL PSBL IVOF ECG NXT FEW HRS...OTW SCT-BKN AC DECK
THIS AM ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AS LINGERING NRGY LIFTS NE. SCT CU
SHUD DVLP THIS AFTRN AS HTNG ACTS ON POCKET OF COOLER AIR ARND 5K
FT. SBY CUD SEE A CB FOR A FEW HRS ARND 22Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF ATTM TO PUT INTO TAF ATTM.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT BEST CHC
FRO MVFR CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NW SURGE DID OCCUR DRNG PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT SPEEDS GNRLY STAYED
BLO 20 KTS. MWS WAS ISSUED FOR THE GUSTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU SAT NITE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR
THE AREA WITH LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE.
XPCT WNDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD
OF FTR SUN NITE THEN GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS
OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS
SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031040
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOL SHRAS CONTINUE TO PUSH E/NE ERLY THIS AM OVER PORTIONS OF SE
THIRD OF THE CWA. CAN NOT OUTRULE A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESP
OVER THE SRN MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE LOCALLY MOD RAIN FOR A SHORT
DURATION WITH SHRA ACTIVITY. CHCS OF PRECIP END TWRDS SUNRISE WITH
SOME CLEARING DVLPG. MID LVL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE RGN
TDY WITH SOME SCT/BKN CU DVLPG IN THE AFTN. LIMITED CHCS OF PRECIP
LATER TDY BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT LATE DAY POPS OVER THE FAR
NE. THINK MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE RGN WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WNW FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S N TO THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90 S (LOW
MID 80S ALONG COASTLINE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TNT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT MID LVLS TO START OUT THE DAY ON SAT LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S FAR S. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE OVER THE
W/NW AS AN UPR LVL JET SAGS SWRD INTO THE RGN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSCD SHRTWV WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWST/OH VLY SAT NIGHT BRINGING THE CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS TMRW EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRAS DVLP LATE EVE.
ON SUN MDLS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CWA...BUT BEST CHCS OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA (ESP SW). IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES LONGER TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGHS ON
SUN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER THAN FCSTG IF MORE PRECIP DVLPS (ESP NRN
HALF).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA STILL PSBL IVOF ECG NXT FEW HRS...OTW SCT-BKN AC DECK
THIS AM ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AS LINGERING NRGY LIFTS NE. SCT CU
SHUD DVLP THIS AFTRN AS HTNG ACTS ON POCKET OF COOLER AIR ARND 5K
FT. SBY CUD SEE A CB FOR A FEW HRS ARND 22Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF ATTM TO PUT INTO TAF ATTM.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT BEST CHC
FRO MVFR CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NW SURGE DID OCCUR DRNG PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT SPEEDS GNRLY STAYED
BLO 20 KTS. MWS WAS ISSUED FOR THE GUSTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU SAT NITE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR
THE AREA WITH LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE.
XPCT WNDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD
OF FTR SUN NITE THEN GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS
OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS
SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 030745
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MAINLY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL SWING PAST THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY AGAIN AFFECT OUR
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY AND INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME PRETTY GOOD CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH IT, AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ONCE AGAIN. IN CASE
THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
WAS INCLUDED NORTH AND CENTRAL, BUT MOST OF WHATEVER ACTION
OCCURS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
NAM POPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS POPS, WITH LIKELY PROGGED; FOR NOW,
THE GFS WAS PREFERRED, AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WORKING BETTER
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY RIPE, AND MODEL
CAPES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH, WITH THE GFS CAPES EVEN HIGHER THAN
THE NAM. SO, IT WAS DECIDED TO FORECAST SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL, SHADING DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. THE FURTHER NORTH ONE
GOES, AND CLOSER TO THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH,
HIGHER INTESITY STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. INDEED, SPC HAS PLACED
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE EASTERN NEW YORK IN A
"SEE TEXT" AREA, MAINTAINING THAT THE "SETUP SHOULD YIELD A
RELATIVELY SHORT-DURATION WINDOW FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON" THERE.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION
WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MORE CUMULUS WILL BE FORMING
THIS MORNING OR BY MIDDAY, SO PARTLY SUNNY WAS USED FOR SKY COVER.
MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, WITH LESS CLOUDINESS FAR SOUTH.
THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE PREFERRED IN THIS
WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST AFTER
WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS, THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALSO, DEW POINTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, SO IT SHOULD NOT
BE VERY HUMID EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO TRY
AND WORK THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL COVER THIS FOR NOW, IF INDEED THAT HAPPENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS TO SWEEP DOWN TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER
LOWS CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-CONNECTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO GOING ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW AS THE DETAILS ARE STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH FEW...IF ANY...DAYS
WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRACTICALLY ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WERE NOT DECOUPLING COMPLETELY. SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN
SOME MVFR FOG AT ABE AND RDG, BUT WITH A BIT OF MIXING WE MAY HAVE
TO AMEND TO REMOVE THE SPOTTY AND MAINLY MVFR FOG THAT WE HAVE BEEN
CARRYING EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL MONITOR.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH TODAY WITH THE APPARENT LOSS OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WELL BEFORE 00Z. THERE
MAY BE A BIT MORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAN PROGGED IF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH CAN CAUSE A LITTLE BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS,
BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT. INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TODAY, BUT IT
IS NOT ROBUST. FACTORS DON`T SEEM TO COME TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY TO
GO WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH GUIDANCE POPS, AND WE`VE MAINTAINED THE
THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN LIMITING OUR MENTION OF
CONVECTION TO VCTS AND CB FOR THE TWO NORTHERN SITES AND CB FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY SITES. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF IT
OUT OF THE TWO SOUTHERN SITES. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME TODAY AND
MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH ONLY
PARTIAL DECOUPLING AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. ALL THIS SPELLS
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ONCE THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE LIFT AWAY, BUT SINCE WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL TURN A BIT UNSETTLED. WE DO NOT, HOWEVER, FORECAST THAT AT THIS
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM LATER TODAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DITTO FOR
SEAS. WE DON`T ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM... /
SHORT TERM.../ O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOLD SPKLS NOTED N AND W OF CWA. SAT LOOP SHOWS SOME SPIN OVR OUR
NWRN ZONES. A WK VORT APPARENTLY WHICH THE GFS/ETA ARE NOT
INDICATING. OR ARE PERHAPS A LTL LATE WITH. A MAX IS SHOWN BY 12Z
OVR SWRN PA. IN ANY CASE...AM HAVING HARD TIME GETTING WORKED UP OVR
MUCH PRECIP TDA OR TNGT. PLANNING ON LETTING CURR SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS RIDE. DON`T SEE MUCH COVERAGE IF ANY. INSTAB IS VERY WEAK.
OMEGA FIELDS ARE FLAT. WK SFC BOUNDARY FCST OVR SERN ZONES BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. UPSTAIRS...ALSO NOT MUCH TO WORK WITH.
FCST TEMPS LOOK FINE. STILL RUNNING A BIT BLO AVG FOR MAXES. LACK OF
PRECIP NEXT 24 HRS. BUT PRECIP WISE...STILL A HEALTHY SURPLUS FOR
THE YR SO FAR. DCA IS 3.79 ABV NORMAL SINCE 1/1. BWI 4.19" EXCESS.
TX CONTS TO BAKE. 100+ DEGS AT MANY STNS THERE AGAIN YESTERDAY.
HOUSTON/IAH HAS HAD A LTL OVR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN SINCE JUNE 1.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANYTHING THAT FORMS SHD DIE A DIURNAL DEATH SHORTLY AFT SUNSET.
MIN TEMPS 50S...TO L60S URBAN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SUITE OF 0Z RUNS OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE DAY DRY.
HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAD BE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS...NOW LOOKS TO TRAVEL NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROF OF THIS WEEK
APPEARS TO BE LIFTING A LITTLE FASTER NEWARD OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE DISTURBANCE CLOSER AND LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...HAVE
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE LATE SAT THRU MONDAY. GFS/GEFS/ECMWF KEEPTHE
AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT 0Z NAM PROJECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE AREA AS EARLY AS
LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SEASONAL TEMPS IN 80S SUNDAY...BUT CWA IS ON COOL SIDE OF SUNDAY
STORM SYSTEM...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME AREAS WILL STAY
IN THE 70S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS AND TSTMS RIDING ALONG
IT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH PULLING
THE FRONT EASTWARD AND DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO ENCROACH FROM THE SW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT.
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING OUT AT
10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOONS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY...MAKING BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT AREA AIRPORTS BE AT KCHO.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS UP JUST A BIT ATTM WITH GUSTS IN THE HIGH TEENS...BUT GRADIENT
FCST DOES NOT WARRANT ANY FLAGS TDA OR TNGT.
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SETS UP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT LOOK TO RMN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RDH
NEAR TERM...RDH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RDH/SBK
MARINE...RDH/SBK
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030704
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
304 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN. THE COMBINATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CROSS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS IN WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH. LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW RUNNING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS WEEKEND...ANY RIPPLES ON THIS
WAVE TO THE NORTH...COLD PUSH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA
MORE IN LINE WITH PIT TO IND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAXES
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND A NORTHWEST ORIENTED 500H
PATTERN...EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF WET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY ONE
FEATURE AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL KEEP CURRENT DRY TREND GOING FOR
THE PERIOD...WITH LATER FORECASTS REFINING TIMING ON PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THIS UPCOMING
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO DEGRADED
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING IFR...FOCUSED NORTH AND EAST OF KPIT BY
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DISTURBANCE.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
TONIGHT...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR PORTS TO THE SOUTH OF PIT WHERE CROSSING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/MVFR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030656
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
256 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOL SHRAS CONTINUE TO PUSH E/NE ERLY THIS AM OVER PORTIONS OF SE
THIRD OF THE CWA. CAN NOT OUTRULE A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESP
OVER THE SRN MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE LOCALLY MOD RAIN FOR A SHORT
DURATION WITH SHRA ACTIVITY. CHCS OF PRECIP END TWRDS SUNRISE WITH
SOME CLEARING DVLPG. MID LVL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE RGN
TDY WITH SOME SCT/BKN CU DVLPG IN THE AFTN. LIMITED CHCS OF PRECIP
LATER TDY BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT LATE DAY POPS OVER THE FAR
NE. THINK MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE RGN WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WNW FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S N TO THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90 S (LOW
MID 80S ALONG COASTLINE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TNT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT MID LVLS TO START OUT THE DAY ON SAT LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S FAR S. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE OVER THE
W/NW AS AN UPR LVL JET SAGS SWRD INTO THE RGN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSCD SHRTWV WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWST/OH VLY SAT NIGHT BRINGING THE CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS TMRW EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRAS DVLP LATE EVE.
ON SUN MDLS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CWA...BUT BEST CHCS OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA (ESP SW). IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES LONGER TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGHS ON
SUN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER THAN FCSTG IF MORE PRECIP DVLPS (ESP NRN
HALF).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA ALONG EWRD MOVG TROF IVOF KPHF/KORF NXT HR OR TWO AND
PSBLY NR KECG BY 08Z. LTL IF ANY AVIATION CONCERNS AS ANY LGT RAIN
THAT MIGHT OCCUR WILL FALL OUT OF A MID LVL CLOUD DECK AOA 5K FT.
OTW...WNDS TURN NW THRU 12Z AND MAYBE EVEN MORE NRLY AT KORF AFTR
TROF PASSAGE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH (IF ANY) BR DVLPS AT SBY NXT FEW
HRS...BUT KEPT A TEMPO GROUP TOWARDS SR. ONLY SCT CU XPCTD THRU
DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO COOLER AIR NR 5K FT.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT SIGNFICANT
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD IN SHORT TERM...BUT WILL CONT TO MONITOR THE SURGE
BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE THRU 12Z. PLAN ON STARTING OFF WITH NW WNDS
ARND 15 KT...WITH A DMNSHG TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
W-NW FLOW CONTS THRU SAT NITE WITH SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SUNDAY GETS A
BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE AREA WITH LOW
PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE. XPCT WNDS TO BECOME
MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD OF FTR SUN NITE THEN
GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030519
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED OVRNT HRS FOR ISOL SHRA OVER THE ERN/SRN THIRD OF THE CWA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH ANY SHRAS THAT DO
FLARE UP BUT GIVEN SHRAS STILL NOTED OVER EASTERN SHORE AND
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...WL HOLD ONTO ISO THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ERN SHORE INTO THE PREDAWN HRS THIS MORNING.
WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENINGS...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S
COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA ALONG EWRD MOVG TROF IVOF KPHF/KORF NXT HR OR TWO AND
PSBLY NR KECG BY 08Z. LTL IF ANY AVIATION CONCERNS AS ANY LGT RAIN
THAT MIGHT OCCUR WILL FALL OUT OF A MID LVL CLOUD DECK AOA 5K FT.
OTW...WNDS TURN NW THRU 12Z AND MAYBE EVEN MORE NRLY AT KORF AFTR
TROF PASSAGE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH (IF ANY) BR DVLPS AT SBY NXT FEW
HRS...BUT KEPT A TEMPO GROUP TOWARDS SR. ONLY SCT CU XPCTD THRU
DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO COOLER AIR NR 5K FT.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT SIGNFICANT
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
TUFF CALL ON WHETHER WNDS INCREAS TO LOW END SCA LVLS AFTR 06Z.
TROF MOVG MOVG ACROSS CHES BAY AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THRU NIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH OF A SURGE OCCURS NXT
FEW HRS. RUC BRINGS WNDS INTO 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS CHES BAY WHILE
BOTH WRF AND SREF TEND TO HOLD WNDS ARND 15 KTS. GIVEN CRNT OBS
UPSTREAM (A FEW GUSTS TO ARND 18 KTS) WILL NOT HOIST ANY FLAGS
ATTM BUT INDCT NW WNDS INCRS TO A SOLID 15 KTS THRU OVRNITE HRS.
IF WNDS AND OR GUSTS DO REACH 20 KTS...WILL LIKELY EITHER ISSUE A
SHORT TERM MWS TO COVER THIS SURGE OR HOIST A FEW HRS PRD OF SCA.
A SECOND BNDRY MOVES THRU FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD
FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE
FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4
FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/TMG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030427
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED OVRNT HRS FOR ISOL SHRA OVER THE ERN/SRN THIRD OF THE CWA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH ANY SHRAS THAT DO
FLARE UP BUT GIVEN SHRAS STILL NOTED OVER EASTERN SHORE AND
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...WL HOLD ONTO ISO THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ERN SHORE INTO THE PREDAWN HRS THIS MORNING.
WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENINGS...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S
COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA AS OF 00Z WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
ANY TAF SITES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MRNG BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SBY BUT SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND
SOME MID LVL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TO IFR.
SOME STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN PER NAM SOUNDINGS AND COOL AIR
AT THE 800-850MB LEVEL.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
SIGNFICANT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
TUFF CALL ON WHETHER WNDS INCREAS TO LOW END SCA LVLS AFTR 06Z.
TROF MOVG MOVG ACROSS CHES BAY AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THRU NIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH OF A SURGE OCCURS NXT
FEW HRS. RUC BRINGS WNDS INTO 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS CHES BAY WHILE
BOTH WRF AND SREF TEND TO HOLD WNDS ARND 15 KTS. GIVEN CRNT OBS
UPSTREAM (A FEW GUSTS TO ARND 18 KTS) WILL NOT HOIST ANY FLAGS
ATTM BUT INDCT NW WNDS INCRS TO A SOLID 15 KTS THRU OVRNITE HRS.
IF WNDS AND OR GUSTS DO REACH 20 KTS...WILL LIKELY EITHER ISSUE A
SHORT TERM MWS TO COVER THIS SURGE OR HOIST A FEW HRS PRD OF SCA.
A SECOND BNDRY MOVES THRU FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD
FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE
FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4
FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/TMG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030320
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1120 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED OVRNT HRS FOR ISOL SHRA OVER THE ERN/SRN THIRD OF THE CWA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH ANY SHRAS THAT DO
FLARE UP BUT GIVEN SHRAS STILL NOTED OVER EASTERN SHORE AND
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...WL HOLD ONTO ISO THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ERN SHORE INTO THE PREDAWN HRS THIS MORNING.
WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENINGS...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S
COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA AS OF 00Z WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
ANY TAF SITES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MRNG BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SBY BUT SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND
SOME MID LVL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TO IFR.
SOME STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN PER NAM SOUNDINGS AND COOL AIR
AT THE 800-850MB LEVEL.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
SIGNFICANT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030149 AAA
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
949 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
PIVOTING AROUND THE BOTTOM PERIMETER OF THE LOW.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCT SHRAS (LTL/NO THUNDER THUS FAR) OVER
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE...AND
FARTHER WEST OVER I-85 CORRIDOR AS S/W CONTINUES TO CROSS THE
REGION. AS EXPECTED...AS WHAT MEAGER SBCAPE WE HAD EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. SO GIVEN
THIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HV PULLED POPS OVERNIGHT
INLAND. HOWEVER...RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT
TRAVERSING THE TIDEWATER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG
WITH ANY SHRAS THAT DO FLARE UP BUT GIVEN SHRAS STILL NOTED OVER
EASTERN SHORE AND CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...WL HOLD ONTO ISO
THUNDER WORDING INTO THE PREDAWN HRS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE (DRIER) OVERNIGHT
AND WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENINGS...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S
COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA AS OF 00Z WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
ANY TAF SITES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MRNG BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SBY BUT SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND
SOME MID LVL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TO IFR.
SOME STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN PER NAM SOUNDINGS AND COOL AIR
AT THE 800-850MB LEVEL.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
SIGNFICANT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...JYM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KPHI 030145
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST,
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY, WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER OUR AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AT 01Z LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM, SO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE MASSAGED A BIT UPWARD
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, AND WILL BE TERMED PARTLY CLOUDY,
OR, WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY, FORECAST TO DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT.
ONLY ONE OR TWO MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE GRID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM, BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LESS
THAN TODAY. NO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK IS PRESENTLY INDICATED BY SPC
FOR THE DAY2 PERIOD.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH AROUND AND BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID
80S FRI AND SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THE GFS RUN
FROM 12Z TODAY SHOWS A VORT MAX GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUN. THE WRF-NAM DOES NOT HAVE THIS
FEATURE AND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY. POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME ARE EITHER
DRY (SUB-15 PCT) OR IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS SWEEP DOWN TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER LOWS
CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDER, SO GOING
ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE SLGT CHC TO CHC RANGE FOR NOW
WITH THE DETAILS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. I WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH
FEW...IF ANY...DAYS WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT TO TAF SITES WILL BE MINIMAL.
EVEN IF A SHOWER/TSTM DOES AFFECT A TAF SITE, IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED.
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, BUT THE ONLY
TAF AFFECTED WILL BE MIV.
FOR FRIDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH A WEST WIND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF KPHL.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS RE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM... / O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...RPW / IOVINO
MARINE...RPW / IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KLWX 030145 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONGOING SHRA XPCD TO MOVE EWD NEXT FEW HRS. WINDS GUSTED THIS EVE
AS BNDRY MOVED ACRS...WITH BNDRY CURRENTLY ACRS CHSPK BAY. MID-
LVL CLDS XPCD TO LINGER...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TNGT. GIVEN XPCD
CLD CVR...MINIMA MAY NOT COOL AS QUICKLY AS PREVLY THOUGHT. THUS
HAVE WARMED MINIMA BY 1-3 DEG F...AND INCRD CLD CVR SLGTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
DESPITE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO SEVERE T-STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY ENFORCING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
EVENING...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. OUR REGION SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WHICH MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ALSO TO OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR THIS
REASON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE COOL AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WILL RANGE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
TO CHANCE CLOSER TO THAT DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL SATURDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE MID 80S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ENFORCED OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME. OUR REGION
SHOULD REMAIN REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING MUCH OF THE
TIME DRY...HOWEVER ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIMINISHING WINDS...AND SCT-BKN MID-LVL CLDS XPCD THRU TNGT.
WNWLY WINDS INCR BY MID-MRNG AS SCT-BKN CU DVLP. SHRA XPCD TO FORM
BY MID-DAY AS COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTS IN MODEST INSTBY. HAVE
INCLUDED CB AT MOST TERMINALS TO SIGNAL DVLPMT OF SHRA BY AFTN.
TSRA NOT XPCD.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WNWLY WINDS WITH GUSTS GENLY 15 KT...INFREQUENTLY TO 20 KT...WILL
PERSIST NEXT FEW HRS AS BNDRY MOVES ACRS CHSPK BAY. ONGOING SHRA
WILL MOVE EWD.
HAVE ISSUED MRN WX STMT TO HIGHLIGHT INFREQUENT GUSTS AS CVRG AND
DURATION OF SAME NOT XPCD TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADZY.
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED
AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS
WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRAMAR
PREV DISCUSSION...HTS/LASORSA
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030021 AAA
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
821 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPR LVL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
PIVOTING AROUND THE BOTTOM PERIMETER OF THE LOW.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCT SHRAS (LTL/NO THUNDER THUS FAR) OVER
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-85 AS S/W
CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION. A FEW MORE SHRAS WERE ALSO NOTED
ACROSS THE NECK/EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. HV CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHC POPS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH SHRAS ON THE RADAR
STARTING DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ANTICIPATE BEING ABLE TO
DROP POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) ZONES
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSING THE
TIDEWATER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
PWATS DO SPIKE BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT SO WE COULD SEE A RENEGADE CELL
OR TWO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH
ANY SHRAS THAT DO FLARE UP. OTHERWISE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
DOWNSLOPE (DRIER) OVERNIGHT AND WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS
DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. WL END ANY LINGERING POPS BY 10Z.
FOR LOWS...LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST EVENINGS...WITH L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA AS OF 00Z WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
ANY TAF SITES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MRNG BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SBY BUT SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND
SOME MID LVL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TO IFR.
SOME STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN PER NAM SOUNDINGS AND COOL AIR
AT THE 800-850MB LEVEL.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
SIGNFICANT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...JYM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030012
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
812 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPR LVL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
PIVOTING AROUND THE BOTTOM PERIMETER OF THE LOW.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCT SHRAS (LTL/NO THUNDER THUS FAR) OVER
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-85 AS S/W
CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION. A FEW MORE SHRAS WERE ALSO NOTED
ACROSS THE NECK/EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. HV CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHC POPS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH SHRAS ON THE RADAR
STARTING DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ANTICIPATE BEING ABLE TO
DROP POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) ZONES
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSING THE
TIDEWATER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
PWATS DO SPIKE BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT SO WE COULD SEE A RENEGADE CELL
OR TWO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH
ANY SHRAS THAT DO FLARE UP. OTHERWISE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
DOWNSLOPE (DRIER) OVERNIGHT AND WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS
DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. WL END ANY LINGERING POPS BY 10Z.
FOR LOWS...LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST EVENINGS...WITH L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF SCT TS ACRS CTRL VA WILL IMPACT NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVNG BEFORE DIMINISHING. SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO WRLY EARLY THU MORNING. VFR EXP OUTSIDE
OF PCPN TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FOR PCPN
WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT SBY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...JYM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022354 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE UPDATED TO BRING AN END TO CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER. ANOTHER UL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LAKES LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER RISK FOR SHOWERS. SHOWER THREAT WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING AS LAST WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE 5-10 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD EXIT THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE VIRGINIAS
THIS WEEKEND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND HPC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY. WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ONE OR TWO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BUT SINCE TOO HARD TO TIME AT THIS POINT...NONE WERE
INCLUDED.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO REGION IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED AROUND FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN CEILINGS PROGGED BY 07Z-09Z
TIME FRAME TO GO IFR. VISIBILITY STILL MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THINK
CEILINGS MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR IFR. CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AGAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z-15Z AND THEN VFR. WEST WINDS 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND PICKING
UP NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF REGION.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022344
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY TO BE REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA MAY
BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DESPITE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE AT MOST
ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY.
LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE 5-10 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD EXIT THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE VIRGINIAS
THIS WEEKEND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND HPC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY. WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ONE OR TWO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BUT SINCE TOO HARD TO TIME AT THIS POINT...NONE WERE
INCLUDED.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO REGION IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED AROUND FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN CEILINGS PROGGED BY 07Z-09Z
TIME FRAME TO GO IFR. VISIBILITY STILL MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THINK
CEILINGS MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR IFR. CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AGAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z-15Z AND THEN VFR. WEST WINDS 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND PICKING
UP NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF REGION.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021947
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DECENT CU FIELD HAS DVLPD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 SE AND ONLY MID TO UPR 70S NW COUNTIES.
EXPECT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/POSSIBLE TS UP IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WHERE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IS NOTED...AS WELL
AS WHERE A WEAK S/W ALOFT WILL TRACK AS SEEN BY WV IMAGERY. SOME
WEAK ENERGY ALOFT ALSO TRACKS TO THE TIDEWATER AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...AND WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLD
CELLS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT JUST A FEW DEGREES BLO LAST NIGHT`S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP
LAYER W/NW FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
A DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ALL SITES THRU FRI WITH ONLY CHC OF ISOLD AFTN RARLY EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY NRN PORTION OF CWA AND EASTERN SHORE. HAVE CB
IN RIC AND SBY THRU THIS EVE. GUSTY WINDS LT 20 KT RIC/SBY THIS AFTN.
W-NW WINDS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM
NEAR TERM...JYM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KPHI 021922
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONCE AGAIN, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY IS
QUITE A BIT LESS TODAY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND
DOWNPOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN NJ
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM, BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LESS
THAN TODAY. NO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK IS PRESENTLY INDICATED BY SPC
FOR THE DAY2 PERIOD.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH AROUND AND BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID
80S FRI AND SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THE GFS RUN
FROM 12Z TODAY SHOWS A VORT MAX GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUN. THE WRF-NAM DOES NOT HAVE THIS
FEATURE AND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY. POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME ARE EITHER
DRY (SUB-15 PCT) OR IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS SWEEP DOWN TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER LOWS
CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDER, SO GOING
ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE SLGT CHC TO CHC RANGE FOR NOW
WITH THE DETAILS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. I WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH
FEW...IF ANY...DAYS WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AT MID AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
AND THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOW TO DEVELOP.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, AND
MORE SCATTERED AROUND KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG. WE ARE EXPECTING
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND KMIV AND KACY.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD FOLLOW
A MORE TYPICAL TIMING PATTERN. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THEY WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK, BY ABOUT 0100Z.
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG. HOWEVER, WE
WILL ADDRESS THAT POTENTIAL IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES, IF NEED BE.
FOR FRIDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH A WEST WIND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF KPHL.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS RE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021917
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
317 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY TO BE REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA MAY
BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DESPITE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE AT MOST
ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY.
LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE 5-10 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD EXIT THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE VIRGINIAS
THIS WEEKEND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND HPC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY. WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ONE OR TWO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BUT SINCE TOO HARD TO TIME AT THIS POINT...NONE WERE
INCLUDED.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES. CONDITIONS WILL
OCCASIONALLY BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH SPOTTY IFR IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THIS SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY VFR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY TO KZZV AND KMGW.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 021851
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLDS HV ADVCD ACRS CWFA TAFTN...LARGELY DIURNAL CU FILLING IN ACRS
PRVSLY SUNNY SKIES. WDLY SCT SHRA HV DVLPD AS WELL...BUT LMTD INSTBY
HV INHIBITED THEIR GROWTH. A FEW CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO MATURE ENUF TO
CONTAIN THUNDER...BUT THOSE SHUD BE THE XCPTN FOR THE REST OF TDA.
POPS THRU SUNSET WL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT RNG...AND WL BEGIN TO WANE
THRAFTR.
WK S/WVS WL CONT TO ROTATE ARND UPR LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO QUE TNGT.
ALTHO SHRA NOT ENTIRELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ITS A BIG COMPONENT.
SINCE PVA WL BE DIMINISHING AS WL SOLAR HEATING...WL SCALE BACK POPS
THRU THE NGT...AND GO DRY OVNGT.
WLY WNDS HV RESULTED IN LWR DEWPTS TDA. AS CLDS SCT OUT OVNGT AND
WNDS DIMINISH...WL HV A CHC AT RADL COOLING. MOS MIN-T SEEM
REASONABLE...AND WL BE A BE A CPL UNDER THIS MRNGS READINGS...SPCLY
AWAY FM THE CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
DESPITE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO SEVERE T-STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY ENFORCING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
EVENING...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. OUR REGION SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WHICH MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ALSO TO OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR THIS
REASON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE COOL AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WILL RANGE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
TO CHANCE CLOSER TO THAT DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL SATURDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE MID 80S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ENFORCED OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME. OUR REGION
SHOULD REMAIN REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING MUCH OF THE
TIME DRY...HOWEVER ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT LIVED AND WDLY SCT SHRA ACROSS AREA ATTM. OPTED TO KEEP VCSH
IN TAFS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN...ALTHO THINK IMPACT WL BE MINOR.
VFR WL PREVAIL...AS CIGS ARND 060-080. CAN/T RULE OUT TS...BUT RISK
OF IT IS WAAAY TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAFS.
LOW DECK WL DSPT AFDK...AND CLDS SHUD SCT OUT OVNGT. XPCT WNDS TO
DIMINISH AS WELL...THO TRAJ WL BE STDY W. SIMLR PTTN WL REPEAT
ITSELF TMRW...AS SCT DIURNAL CU IN THE MRNG...W/ VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTN. A SHRA THREAT RTNS IN THE AFTN...BUT ITS TOO LMTD ATTM TO
INCL.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH
DAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OUT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WNDS ON THE WATERS HV STAYED BLO 15 KT. LTST MDL SDNGS AND WRF GDNC
SUGGEST THAT TREND WL CONT...AND WL CANX SCA. WRF-ARW4 SUGGESTS WLY
WNDS WL PICK UP AFDK...BUT DIURNAL TRENDS AND OVRALL WK FLOW REGIME
PUTS THAT SOLN IN DOUBT ATTM.
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED
AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WELL...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...HTS/BJL
MARINE...HTS/BJL
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021800
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/W ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN HOWEVER. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONTINUED
TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC POPS WELL N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER
DPVA AND CONVERGENCE VALUES...AND ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. WEAK 1000-850 MB CAA WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS VS THOSE ATTAINED YDAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA
IN THE MID-UPR 80S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR
90S ELSEWHERE (COOLEST OVER PIEDMONT REGION...WARMEST SE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY FCST
CHALLENGE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
ON FRIDAY...UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP
LAYER NWLY FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850
MB THERMAL TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ALL SITES THRU FRI WITH ONLY CHC OF ISOLD AFTN RARLY EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY NRN PORTION OF CWA AND EASTERN SHORE. HAVE CB
IN RIC AND SBY THRU THIS EVE. GUSTY WINDS LT 20 KT RIC/SBY THIS AFTN.
W-NW WINDS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM THRU FRI. NEXT FRTNL BOUNDARY PUSH
OVER THE WATERS EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. FRNTL BNDRY STALLS
OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH/JYM
SHORT TERM...BKH/MAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KPHI 021542
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1140 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SLOWLY
TOWARD OUR REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BY LATE MORNING, THE LOW CLOUDS WERE BREAKING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX, LOCATED OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING, WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR REGION, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED ITS SLIGHT RISK AREA A BIT
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ENHANCED
WORDING FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN REGARD TO THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOWLY IMPROVING WEATHER PICTURE IS FORESEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY, AND IT SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AIR
FOR OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL CREATE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
RANGES OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LIFTING AWAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH POPS IN THE NONE OR SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
HPC PROGS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE NEEDED
FOR THIS NOW. THE 00Z THURSDAY GFS DOES SHOW A SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW BY TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE LEFT FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO ENDORSE OR OVERRULE USING A MORE CONSISTENT PICTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY, WITH LOWER AND MID 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
WE EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY TO OUR
NORTH AND WINDS DEVELOP A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE THAT IS BROUGHT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION AND MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
WE HAVE ENDED THAT ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS BY 00Z FRI, AND THEN
GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST VFR FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. OF COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE WINDS AND WAVES TO
INCREASE LOCALLY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM... / O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KLWX 021415
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY...THEN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE COULD AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LOW DISPLACED A BIT FRTHR NE FM YDA...AS WL THE TRACK OF S/WVS
THAT ROTATE ARND IT. THAT WL PLACE CWFA ON THE FRINGE OF POTL
ACTVTY. THIS MRNGS 12Z LWX RAOB...MODIFIED FOR AFTN FCST OF
81/61...WAS MUCH MORE STBL THAN PRVS CPL DAYS-- SBCAPE LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...AND MLCAPE ONLY A CPL HND. BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING ACTS
ON MOCLR SKIES OBSVD ON VSBL STLT E OF BLURDG...XPCT DIURNAL CU TO
DVLP. DO BELIEVE THERE WL BE ENUF INSTBY FOR WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA AS
WELL...BUT DONT XPCT STORMS TO GAIN APPRECIABLE STRENGTH.
H8 CAA PTTN ONGOING TDA...THO ACTUAL TEMPS/HGTS DONT DROP MUCH. WL
SHADE MAXT DWN A CPL ACRS THE E...BASED ON ANTICIPATED CLDCVR. WRN
SXNS LOOK OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH AND/OR PUSH NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. STRONG
CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S MOST
AREAS...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMA.
WITH MID/UPPER MOISTURE STILL STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ON WESTERN SLOPES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL STILL WARRANT CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...DRY
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY RAIN-FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER TROUGHINESS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PREVENT A DRY FORECAST
UNTIL THEN AS DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND ITS BASE ALTHOUGH
ANY CONVECTION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAVE A DIURNAL BIAS. HAVE
ORIENTED HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOWER /SLGT CHC/ POPS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. HAVE ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA CLOSEST TO
AN UPPER JET. DESPITE THIS...WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGHINESS IN PLACE
HAVE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS ACROSS CWA ATTM.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGHINESS...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. DIFFERENCES
BECOME APPARENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE IN THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
TIMING AND TRACK ARE DIFFERENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TROUGHINESS DURING THE MIDDLE
WEEK AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH SLGT CHC
POPS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL TAFTN-EVE. WDLY SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS ON ANY BUT KCHO TAF LOCATIONS.
HWVR...AREAL CVRG IN DOUBT...AND MAY RMV VCSH FM 18Z PKG. NW WINDS
PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AND REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH TROUGHINESS OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE SLGT/CHC THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WLY WNDS ARND 10 KT ATTM...THO TPLM2 EXHIBITING HIER GUSTS. AM
HAVING DOUBTS AS TO THE POTL OF AFTN MIXING. 06Z NAM12 AND LTST
WRF-ARW4 BOTH SUGGEST WNDS WL STAY UNDER. HWVR...ITS TOO CLSOE OF
A CALL ATTM...SO WL KEEP HEADLINE UP FOR NOW.
WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
LESSEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW.
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EACH OF THOSE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. LESS WIND EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THE WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...HTS/SBK/PELOQUIN
MARINE...HTS/SBK/PELOQUIN
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021256
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
856 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/W ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN HOWEVER. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONTINUED
TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC POPS WELL N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER
DPVA AND CONVERGENCE VALUES...AND ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. WEAK 1000-850 MB CAA WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS VS THOSE ATTAINED YDAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA
IN THE MID-UPR 80S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR
90S ELSEWHERE (COOLEST OVER PIEDMONT REGION...WARMEST SE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY FCST
CHALLENGE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
ON FRIDAY...UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP
LAYER NWLY FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850
MB THERMAL TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS MVG OFFSHORE AND WILL LEAD TO SCT/SKC VFR DECK
TO SCOUR OUT AS THE AM PROGRESSES. AFTN/LATE DAY VFR CU FIELD
WILL LIKELY DVLP AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP OVER THE NRN
NECK INTO THE ERN SHORE. WINDS GRNLY OUT OF THE W TDY AND NW TNT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM THRU FRI. NEXT FRTNL BOUNDARY PUSH
OVER THE WATERS EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. FRNTL BNDRY STALLS
OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH/JYM
SHORT TERM...BKH/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...CCW
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020833 CCA
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
VORT LOBE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BLOSSOMING CONVECTION LAST
EVENING IS NOW EXITING OFF THE COAST PER STLT WV/IR LOOPS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WEAKENING/DEPARTING ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY FCST
CHALLENGE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
TODAY...
SIMILAR WX STORY TODAY...WITH S/W ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPR
LOW...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT
A BIT FARTHER NORTH. AS SUCH...CONTINUED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC
POPS WELL N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER DPVA AND CONVERGENCE
VALUES...AND ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE. WEAK 1000-850 MB CAA WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
VS THOSE ATTAINED YDAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA IN THE MID-UPR 80S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR 90S ELSEWHERE
(COOLEST OVER PIEDMONT REGION...WARMEST SE).
FRIDAY...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER NWLY
FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
INDEPENDENCE DAY (SAT)...
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW EXITS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND ISOL TSTMS MVG OFFSHORE AND WILL LEAD TO SCT/SKC VFR DECK
TO SCOUR OUT AS THE AM PROGRESSES. TWRDS SUNRISE...LOOK FOR SHALLOW
FOG TO DVLP OVER THE ERN SHORE AND VCNTY OF METRO RICHMOND.
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBYS FOR A TIME AT SBY BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING AT
DAYBREAK. AFTN/LATE DAY VFR CU FIELD WILL LIKELY DVLP AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP OVER THE NRN NECK INTO THE ERN SHORE. WINDS
GRNLY OUT OF THE W TDY AND NW TNT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM THRU FRI. NEXT FRTNL BOUNDARY PUSH
OVER THE WATERS EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. FRNTL BNDRY STALLS
OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...CCW
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020831
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
VORT LOBE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BLOSSOMING CONVECTION LAST
EVENING IS NOW EXITING OFF THE COAST PER STLT WV/IR LOOPS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WEAKENING/DEPARTING ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY FCST
CHALLENGE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
TODAY...
SIMILAR WX STORY TODAY...WITH S/W ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPR
LOW...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT
A BIT FARTHER NORTH. AS SUCH...CONTINUED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC
POPS WELL N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER DPVA AND CONVERGENCE
VALUES...AND ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE. WEAK 1000-850 MB CAA WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
VS THOSE ATTAINED YDAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA IN THE MID-UPR 80S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR 90S ELSEWHERE
(COOLEST OVER PIEDMONT REGION...WARMEST SE).
FRIDAY...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER NWLY
FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
INDEPENDENCE DAY (SAT)...
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW EXITS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SCT TS ACRS CTRL VA WILL IMPACT NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVNG BEFORE DIMINISHING. SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO WRLY EARLY THU MORNING. VFR EXP OUTSIDE
OF PCPN TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT SBY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. ONE TROF OR WEAK COLD
FRNT WILL SWING ACRS THE AREA LATE TNGT THRU THU MORNG...WITH A
SECOND ONE EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. THAT FRNTL BNDRY WILL
REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG
IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...CCW
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KPHI 020800
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SLOWLY
TOWARD OUR REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED
LOW THAT SET OFF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS MOVING PAST OUR
AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND THE REMAINING CONVECTION WAS MAINLY
OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REMNANTS JUST IN THE WAKE OF THAT ACTIVITY OVER OUR CENTRAL
ZONES...AND PROBABLY NOTHING OVER THE FAR SOUTH. SO, PROBABILITIES
WILL BE SHADED FROM LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON.THE GFS MOS IS PREFERRED, WHICH HAS CHANCE
PROBABILITIES, INDICATING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS THERE IS NOT
AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPARED WITH LAST NIGHT, AND THE WIND FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS
THAT SOME LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MIGHT INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
FRONT TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVER, OR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY, WERE
MENTIONED AT MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH, WHERE GFS AND NAM
MOS, AS WELL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS, WERE FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC REGARDING
CLOUD COVER.
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL IN SOME AREAS, AND THE HIGH DEW
POINTS, ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE COULD CAUSE SOME
RADIATION, SO PATCHY FOG WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS AN EXAMPLE, BOTH KPNE AND KMIV HAD FALLEN TO 1
3/4 MILES IN MIST JUST BEFORE 08Z WHERE THE SKY HAD TEMPORARILY
CLEARED. SO, WHILE THAT`S NOT TERRIBLY FOGGY, SOME SPOTS WERE
STARTING TO UNDERGO A DROP IN THEIR VISIBILITIES A BIT.
SPC KEPT OUR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COUNTIES IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, SO ENHANCED WORDING WAS ADDED
TO THESE AREAS, MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING NORTH, AND WILL BE WATCHED.
ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR NOTHING OVERNIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ENTER THE
REGION ON A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT.
MOS TEMPERATURES OFFERED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIFFERENCE, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON THIS MORNING`S GIVEN SOLUTIONS ON
TODAY`S HIGHS AND TONIGHT`S LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOWLY IMPROVING WEATHER PICTURE IS FORESEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY, AND IT SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER
AIR FOR OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL CREATE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
RANGES OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LIFTING AWAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH POPS IN THE NONE OR SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
HPC PROGS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE NEEDED
FOR THIS NOW. THE 00Z THURSDAY GFS DOES SHOW A SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW BY TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE LEFT FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO ENDORSE OR OVERRULE USING A MORE CONSISTENT PICTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY, WITH LOWER AND MID 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. INITIALLY, WE ARE DEALING WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW AND A SURFACE REFLECTION THAT HAVE CAUSED A COMBINATION OF AN
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME FOG ALMOST COINCIDENT WITH
MODERATE CONVECTION. THAT ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY DAYBREAK,
AND WE THEN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES AWAY AND WINDS DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE THAT IS BROUGHT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION AND MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE NOT PUT THAT MUCH SPECIFICITY
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT, BUT WE ARE CARRYING VCTS FOR OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE ENDED THAT ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS BY 00Z FRI, AND THEN
GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST VFR FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OVER
OUR REGION THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. OF COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE WINDS AND WAVES TO
INCREASE LOCALLY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM... / O`HARA
SHORT TERM... / O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KLWX 020740
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY...THEN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE COULD AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINNING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IMPULSE WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEARLY STATIONARY PARENT
UPPER LOW...AND PUSH NEWARD THROUGH PA DURING THE AFTN. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER MORE
NORTHWESTERLY..SETTING UP DOWNSLOPING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
ACT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER. PATCHY FOG WILL
QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT SOLAR
HEATING. THUS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DESTABILIZED
ENOUGH...COMBINED WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO ONCE AGAIN INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA. WITH TODAYS VORT MAX WEAKER AND TRACKING FURTHER TO THE NORTH...PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS LESS OF A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AS LEE TROF DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BEST POPS
WILL BE OVER THE NE CWA...WHICH WILL HAVE THE MOST MOISTURE AND
TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION. WITH MODERATE WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY SUMMER RADIATION...THICKNESSES SUPPORT
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM GUIDANCE...AS DOWNSLOPING AND AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMA IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WEST OF BLUE RIDGE
STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET BLEND...WITH MOST AREAS NOT REACHING 80 FOR
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH AND/OR PUSH NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. STRONG
CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S MOST
AREAS...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMA.
WITH MID/UPPER MOISTURE STILL STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING ON WESTERN SLOPES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL STILL
WARRANT CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...DRY DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY RAIN-FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER TROUGHINESS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PREVENT A DRY FORECAST
UNTIL THEN AS DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND ITS BASE ALTHOUGH
ANY CONVECTION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAVE A DIURNAL BIAS. HAVE
ORIENTED HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOWER /SLGT CHC/ POPS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. HAVE ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA CLOSEST TO
AN UPPER JET. DESPITE THIS...WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGHINESS IN PLACE
HAVE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS ACROSS CWA ATTM.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGHINESS...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. DIFFERENCES
BECOME APPARENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE IN THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
TIMING AND TRACK ARE DIFFERENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TROUGHINESS DURING THE MIDDLE
WEEK AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH SLGT CHC
POPS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR VIS/CIG ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY FOG WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. THEN VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
BRIEF IMPACTS ON ANY BUT KCHO TAF LOCATIONS. NW WINDS PICK UP TO 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LOW
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
WITH TROUGHINESS OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE SLGT/CHC THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTN MIXING DOWN OF ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO PERIODICALLY GUST ABOVE 20 KTS...THEREFORE SCA IN EFFECT.
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
LESSEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW.
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EACH OF THOSE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. LESS WIND EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THE WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...SBK/BPP
MARINE...SBK/BPP
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020643
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORM GENERATION IS AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS COLD
AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH DIURNAL AFFECTS DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL WAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE PASSING WAVES...SPOTTY
PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH MAXES RECOVERING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE BY SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL BUILD IN TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR THIS MORNING, DEGRADED
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED AT MOST PORTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS POOLED IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OHIO. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER OHIO AS
NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES
LOW. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNDER COOL MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE VFR
THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING LOW EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER, TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED WITH VFR WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 020225 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC... BRINGING
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ALLOW UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ALL QUIET OUTSIDE INSIDE THE CWA BOUNDARY...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY AND
NEARBY PORTIONS OF EXTREME NERN MD. AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW
CHURNS OUT MORE STORMS FOR NEW ENGLAND...THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO THE ERN SHORE OF DELMARVA. TWO MAIN AREAS
THAT WERE OF INTEREST EARLIER HAPPENED TO BASICALLY SPLIT AROUND
THE DC METRO AREA. ONLY RECENTLY DID SOME RESIDUAL LIFT HELP TO
DEVELOP SCATTERED WEAK STORMS PUSH ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA...AND
MORE RECENTLY ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU BALTIMORE.
A SIMILAR BUT WEAKER MID LEVEL CAP THAT EXISTED YESTERDAY HELPED
TO KEEP STORMS FROM REACHING FULL POTENTIAL /OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS THAT WERE ABLE TO INTENSIFY OFF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
OR MARINE INDUCED BOUNDARY/. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...LITTLE
MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS MORE WEAK UPPER WAVES PUSH AROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.
MUCH OF REGION RECEIVED A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
THIS AFTN/EVNG...W/ THE STRIPE OF N CNRTL VA RECEIVING BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OF A BRIEF PERIOD
OVERNIGHT...THO LOCALIZED AND NOT VERY DENSE W/ STEADY MID LEVEL
STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. LEAVING IN LOW CHANCE POPS AND NO FOG MENTION THRU THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...SINCE MANY AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN W/IN 4-6SM
RANGE. WLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSER TO SUNRISE...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY ALSO MITIGATE THE EARLY MRNG VSBY DECREASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONTG S/WVS WL ENHANCE LLVL FRONTOGENESIS. LEE TROF DVLPS INTO A WK
CDFNT...AND THAT FNT WL WRK THRU CWFA TMRW. INCR WLY WNDS WL
ADVECT SLGTLY DRIER AIR...WHICH WL IMPEDE DVLPMNT OF SHRA/TSRA...AS
WL THE DWNSLPG FM SFC WNDS. FOR THOSE REASONS...POPS WL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED TMRW VS TDA. WL KEEP THE HIEST POPS N /CLOSER
TO UPPER LOW/ AND W /OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT/.
MAXT WL BE SIMLR E OF BLURDG...BUT ARRIVING H8 CAA WL SUPPORT LWR
MAXT ACRS THE W...SPCLY IN THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST OVER SRN ONTARIO/ERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE/TROF PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A TROF AXIS OVER THE NE CONUS AND BROADENING RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX
BRINGING NW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WENT
WITH CHC POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...MAX TEMPS LOW 80S S/AROUND 80 N BEHIND THE
FRONT.
NWLY JET STREAK BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY...DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED FOR THE SRN OH
VLY/TN VLY AROUND THE RIDGE OVER TX ON SATURDAY SO CHANCES GENERALLY
INCREASE TO THE SW. TEMPERATURE RANGE COULD BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT ON
SATURDAY WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH JET OVERHEAD. SOUTHWEST OF THE
ZONE...UPPER 80S SW...LOW 80S NE. DEWPOINTS IN VICINITY OF 60F WOULD
ONLY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO A HEAT INDEX.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCHC POPS FOR SUNDAY THRU
MONDAY. LATER INTO NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WITH HOW ERN
CONUS TROF MAINTAINS ITSELF...WHETHER IT KEEPS FOCUS FOR PRECIP
ACROSS SE STATES FOR IF WAVES BRING CHANCES BACK UP THIS WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DC AREA AIRPORTS NOW OUT OF ANY MORE STORMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
BALT AREA SITES WATCHING THESE SAME STORMS SLIDE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AT THIS HR. OVERNIGHT...NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF THE MID ATLC
FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WEAK SFC WINDS...THO WIDESPREAD FOG
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT.
WLY FLOW WL INCR TMRW...MAKING CHC SHRA MUCH MORE LMTD. CUD STILL BE
A FEW ARND IN THE AFTN...BUT WL NEED TO ADDRESS THAT IN LATER
FCST CYCLES.
UPPER LOW STORM BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LESS PERIODIC SUBVFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
QUIETER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WNDS AOB 10 KT ATTM. THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE
WATERS INTO THIS LATE HR HAVE NOW MOVED ONTO THE ERN SHORE...W/
CONDITIONS SETTLING BACK DOWN ACROSS THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CHESAPEAKE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURS...THO A STEADY INCREASE OF WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN THURS MRNG.
RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE TO
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH CROSSING THE
WATERS. WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH SOME COOLING
BEHIND THE FEATURE COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS TO 20 KT MIX DOWN OVER THE
WATERS.
SCA LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AND MAYBE SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT...BRINGING THE JET STREAM AND NW FLOW OVER THE AREA.
QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES STILL WELL BELOW 1 FT...THO AREAS AROUND THE
TIDAL POTOMAC INLET AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE BAY HAVE RECEIVED
SOME INTENSE STORMS THIS EVNG...WATER LEVELS SHOULD STILL REMAIN
BELOW A FOOT INTO THE EARLY MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE CURRENT
DEPARTURES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECEDE A BIT MORE ON THURS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
UDPATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...HTS/BAJ
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020215
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1015 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
LOW...WITH MOST REMAINING NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EVE CNVTN...EVEN A FEW WRNGS...APRS TO BE SHIFTING TO THE CST
ATTM. XPCTG HIEST POPS GENLY E OF I95 INTO (VRY) ERY MRNG HRS B4
WINDING DN. COULD STILL BE STRNG STM...MNLY INVOF BAY/ERN
SHR...BUT SVR THREAT DIMINISHING. P/MCLDY...LO TEMPS IN THE 60S
TO L70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR
THE PERIOD WAS IN DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
SIMILAR WX STORY TOMORROW...WITH S/W ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
UPR LOW. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. AS SUCH...CONTINUED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO
N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER DPVA AND CONVERGENCE VALUES...AND
ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. ONCE
AGAIN...THE NAM REMAINS MORE BULLISH ON POPS...THE GFS DECIDEDLY
LESS SO. UTILIZED ISOLATED WORDING AT MOST TOMORROW GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DEEP WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE) COMPONENT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS VS
THOSE ATTAINED TODAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA IN THE MID-UPR 80S OVER
THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR 90S ELSEWHERE (WARMEST
SE).
FRIDAY...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER NWLY
FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
INDEPENDENCE DAY (SAT)...
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW EXITS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SCT TS ACRS CTRL VA WILL IMPACT NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVNG BEFORE DIMINISHING. SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO WRLY EARLY THU MORNING. VFR EXP OUTSIDE
OF PCPN TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT SBY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. ONE TROF OR WEAK COLD
FRNT WILL SWING ACRS THE AREA LATE TNGT THRU THU MORNG...WITH A
SECOND ONE EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. THAT FRNTL BNDRY WILL
REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG
IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020131
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
LOW...WITH MOST REMAINING NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS CENTER OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN ONTARIO/ERN MI.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WAS WITH DIAGNOSING SVR
WX POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST IN A SERIES OF
VORT LOBES PIVOTING AROUND THE BOTTOM PERIMETER OF THE UPPER LOW
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL DIG A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...MOVING FROM OH VLY INTO THE MID-ATL THROUGH LTR
THIS EVENING. SPC TRIMMED BACK SLIGHT RISK AREA SLIGHTLY...NOW
INCLUDING NWRN THIRD OF AKQ CWA (APPROXIMATELY A FVX-RIC-WAL
LINE) IN DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND THIS CONTRIBUTED TO AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPING OF SLGT
RISK. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE UPSTREAM
ACROSS WV...SOUTH INTO WESTERN NC/VA. RUC CONTINUES TO DEPICT BEST
CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR AREA WILL SET
UP ACROSS PIEDMONT COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOUTH TO
JUST NORTH OF THE I-85/I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHSIDE/CENTRAL VA.
COULD HV A FEW STORMS CREEP INTO OUR CWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. RUC DEPICTING STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES UPWARDS OF 9 DEG C/KM.
THIS ALONG WITH DEEP LYR BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ISO/WIDELY SCT TSRAS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTN AS VORT MAX TO OUR NORTH RIDES EASTWARD.
ONCE THESE STORMS DEVELOP... BRN/BRN SHEAR VALUES OF 40-60 M2S2
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERE WL LKLY
BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SOME AREAS ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING
POTENTIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. HWO
CURRENTLY REFLECTS THIS THREAT OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND WON`T
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS FOR NOW.
CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AFTER SS. CUT BACK POPS TO LOW CHC NORTH/SLIGHT CHC SOUTH FOR A
FEW SHRAS AS VORT MAX EXITS TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN USED A
MOS BLEND FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS. L/M 60S INLAND...U60S/L70S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR
THE PERIOD WAS IN DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
SIMILAR WX STORY TOMORROW...WITH S/W ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
UPR LOW. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT A BIT
FARTHER NORTH. AS SUCH...CONTINUED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO
N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER DPVA AND CONVERGENCE VALUES...AND
ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. ONCE
AGAIN...THE NAM REMAINS MORE BULLISH ON POPS...THE GFS DECIDEDLY
LESS SO. UTILIZED ISOLATED WORDING AT MOST TOMORROW GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DEEP WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE) COMPONENT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS VS
THOSE ATTAINED TODAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA IN THE MID-UPR 80S OVER
THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR 90S ELSEWHERE (WARMEST
SE).
FRIDAY...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER NWLY
FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
INDEPENDENCE DAY (SAT)...
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW EXITS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SCT TS ACRS CTRL VA WILL IMPACT NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVNG BEFORE DIMINISHING. SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO WRLY EARLY THU MORNING. VFR EXP OUTSIDE
OF PCPN TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT SBY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. ONE TROF OR WEAK COLD
FRNT WILL SWING ACRS THE AREA LATE TNGT THRU THU MORNG...WITH A
SECOND ONE EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. THAT FRNTL BNDRY WILL
REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG
IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KPHI 020122
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SLOWLY
TOWARD OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AT 01Z...AND THIS WAS SIGNALING THE
DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT WAS DECIDED
TO LEAVE IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT LIKELY FAR
SOUTHEAST, BUT CHANGE TO WORDING TO OCCASIONAL. SOME ENHANCED
WORDING WAS ALSO ADDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH A MENTION OF
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SOME OF THE CELLS HAVING RATHER
TALL TOPS UP TO 40 THOUSAND FEET.
SO, THIS NEXT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SWING ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
AND INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER OUR AREA. THE SEVERE
STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BACK A
BIT FROM THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES, OTHERWISE IT WAS FELT THAT ANY
SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT,
SO LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN TOO. THE OVERALL QPF
EXPECTED AND FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SEEM TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF
ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST FEW SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FIRST THING IN THE
MORNING AND THEN MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHC POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA.
A SLOWLY IMPROVING WEATHER PICTURE IS FORESEEN FRI AND SAT AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN AND IT SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AIR FOR
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL CREATE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
RANGES OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LIFTING AWAY DURING THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEKEND. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH POPS IN THE NONE OR SLGT CHC RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HPC
PROGS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH SUN-MON, BUT
NOTHING HIGHER THAN SLGT CHC POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS NOW.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SCATTERED TSTMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ALL
SITES BUT KTTN WERE MISSED. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TSTMS OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY TSRA, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN IN NO HURRY TO ADVANCE N
AND E.
THE ONLY OTHER PROBLEM IS AT KACY, WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
OCEAN MOVED INLAND AND HAVE BROUGHT IFR CIGS. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO
CONTINUE. THE POTENTIALLY GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT THE STABLE AIR
WHICH BROUGHT THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP TSRA AT BAY FOR KACY.
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WAS LOCATED OVER VIRGINIA WILL
LIFT OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE.
IT SEEMS AS THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT, ONCE
THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ANOTHER UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION BETWEEN
0800Z AND 1200Z ON THURSDAY.
ONCE THE SECOND DISTURBANCE PASSES, GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE COURSE OF THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE IN THEIR
VICINITY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM... / O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG / IOVINO
MARINE...NIERENBERG / IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KLWX 020025 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
825 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO FRIDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC... BRINGING
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY ALLOW UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
QUICK PRELIM UPDATE TO POPS/WX AS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM N CNTRL VA THRU NRN MD. DC AND BALT
METRO AREAS HAVE ACTUALLY ESCAPED THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY
/OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING
FLASHES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA HAS SEEN STEADY SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY...SINCE EARLY THIS AFTN. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED
ACROSS N CNTRL VA...FROM THE CNTRL SHENANDOAH VLY TO THE TIDAL
POTOMAC. THE OTHER AREA OF FAIRLY INTENSE ACTIVITY WAS STREWN
ACROSS NRN MD AND THE WV PANHANDLE...NOW WELL NORTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...AND A DEVELOPING BATCH OF SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WRN DC SUBURBS.
ANOTHER INTERMEDIATE UPDATE IN A COUPLE OF HRS...LIKELY TO
DECREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONTG S/WVS WL ENHANCE LLVL FRONTOGENESIS. LEE TROF DVLPS INTO A WK
CDFNT...AND THAT FNT WL WRK THRU CWFA TMRW. INCR WLY WNDS WL
ADVECT SLGTLY DRIER AIR...WHICH WL IMPEDE DVLPMNT OF SHRA/TSRA...AS
WL THE DWNSLPG FM SFC WNDS. FOR THOSE REASONS...POPS WL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED TMRW VS TDA. WL KEEP THE HIEST POPS N /CLOSER
TO UPPER LOW/ AND W /OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT/.
MAXT WL BE SIMLR E OF BLURDG...BUT ARRIVING H8 CAA WL SUPPORT LWR
MAXT ACRS THE W...SPCLY IN THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST OVER SRN ONTARIO/ERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE/TROF PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
A TROF AXIS OVER THE NE CONUS AND BROADENING RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX
BRINGING NW FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WENT
WITH CHC POPS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR NRN AND
WESTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...MAX TEMPS LOW 80S S/AROUND 80 N BEHIND THE
FRONT.
NWLY JET STREAK BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY...DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED FOR THE SRN OH
VLY/TN VLY AROUND THE RIDGE OVER TX ON SATURDAY SO CHANCES GENERALLY
INCREASE TO THE SW. TEMPERATURE RANGE COULD BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT ON
SATURDAY WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH JET OVERHEAD. SOUTHWEST OF THE
ZONE...UPPER 80S SW...LOW 80S NE. DEWPOINTS IN VICINITY OF 60F WOULD
ONLY ADD A FEW DEGREES TO A HEAT INDEX.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCHC POPS FOR SUNDAY THRU
MONDAY. LATER INTO NEXT WEEK...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WITH HOW ERN
CONUS TROF MAINTAINS ITSELF...WHETHER IT KEEPS FOCUS FOR PRECIP
ACROSS SE STATES FOR IF WAVES BRING CHANCES BACK UP THIS WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
S/WV W OF TERMINALS ATTM WL CROSS AREA LT AFTN-ELY EVE. HV PLACED
VCTS IN TAFS THRUT THIS WINDOW...AND HIGHLIGHTED BEST CHC IN TEMPS
GRP-- 20-23Z MRB...21-24Z IAD-CHO...22-01Z DCA-BWI-MTN. THESE TIMES
WL LKLY BE ADJUSTED AS RADAR TRENDS EVOLVE. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL...
BUT BRIEF MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE XPCTD W/IN AND TSRA.
BHD S/WV...VFR BASED LOW CLDS WL LINGER...AS MAY A FEW SHRA. THERE/S
ALSO AN OVNGT BR POTL TOO...CONTINGENT OF EVOLUTION OF STORMS.
WLY FLOW WL INCR TMRW...MAKING CHC SHRA MUCH MORE LMTD. CUD STILL BE
A FEW ARND IN THE AFTN...BUT WL NEED TO ADDRESS THAT IN LATER
FCST CYCLES.
UPPER LOW STORM BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LESS PERIODIC SUBVFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
QUIETER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WNDS AOB 10 KT ATTM. S/WV WL CROSS THE WATERS THIS EVNG...WHICH LKLY
WL BRING HIER WNDS/WVS. SMW/S LKLY WL BE REQD.
RAISED AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE TO
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH CROSSING THE
WATERS. WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH SOME COOLING
BEHIND THE FEATURE COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS TO 20 KT MIX DOWN OVER THE
WATERS.
SCA LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AND MAYBE SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT...BRINGING THE JET STREAM AND NW FLOW OVER THE AREA.
QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES NOW LESS THAN 1 FT. SINCE WE STAYED JUST UNDER CRIT
THIS MRNG W/ HIER ANOMOLIES...WE SHUD BE ABLE TO DO THE SAME TNGT.
XPCT DEPARTURES WL RECEDE SLGTLY TMRW.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...HTS/BAJ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020024
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
824 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...CAUSING COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OFF FRIDAY...MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARM UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUDGING FROM RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS SUGGESTED
BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS OUTPUT...CLOUD COVER HOLDING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT COLD
UPPER LOW CENTER TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. SO REMAINING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO DAYTIME
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE AND COULD HOLD ON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECASTED CONTINUED COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY CLOSE TO
BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS OUTPUT. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS...EXPECT WEAK
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
HOWEVER RECENT NAM MODEL RUNS AND HPC GUIDANCE HINT THERE CAN BE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA
SUNDAY. SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INSERTED FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY HPC GUIDANCE AND GFS MOS OUTPUT.
A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WAVES THROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD
TO RULE OUT PRECIP CHANCES AT ANY TIME THIS WEEKEND. BY
TUESDAY...AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID COUNTRY UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY
AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED IN OHIO AND WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST IN PA AND WV BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BUT MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SOME MVFR STATOCU AND PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...AND
PREDOMINATELY VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.
MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
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