000
FXUS61 KCAR 031924
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
324 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL SE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MARINE LAYER IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME STRONGER SHOWERS
ARE APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE BUT EXPECT THESE
TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
INTO CWA. WEAKENING SHOWERS ADVECTING FROM THE WEST COULD SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. KEPT SOME QPF AND POPS TO REFLECT THIS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
TOMORROW ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE SW PART OF THE FA AND ADVECTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, THE
STABLE LOW LVL LYR AND CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE. WITH THE TROUGH,
WINDS WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO A MORE SW DIRECTION AND PROVIDE SOME
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LVLS TO MIX AWAY THE LOW LVL CLOUDS THAT HAVE
DOMINATED THE AREA IN RECENT DAYS. THIS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW PART OF THE FA MIDDAY TOMORROW AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF ANY CONVECTION
SAT AFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE E OF THE FA SAT EVE...LEAVING SCT SHWRS
MAINLY OVR NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE SAT NGT. MODELS THEN VARY
REGARDING THE PSN OF AN W-E ORIENTATED UPPER TROF/LOW AXIS EXTENDING
EWRD FROM QB. SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS AXIS JUST N OF THE FA WHILE
OTHERS BRING THE AXIS THRU NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY SUN AFT. GIVEN THE
12Z OPNL MODEL TREND OF MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE LATTER
SCENARIO...WE WILL KEEP CLDS AND SCT SHWRS ACROSS SPCLY FAR NRN
AREAS DURING THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY CONTS SUN NGT INTO MON AS ANOTHER
S/WV MOVING ESE FROM ONT PROVINCE KEEPS THE W-E TROF AXIS OVR THE
FA...PERHAPS ALLOWING CLDS AND SCT SHWRS TO SLOWLY SAG SWRD EVEN
INTO DOWNEAST AREAS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...WE KEPT QPF AMOUNTS LIGHT
EACH 6 HRLY PD OF THE SHORT RANGE...BUT A QUASI-STEADY...SLOWLY
MOVING W-E TROF AXIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER QPF IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROF AXIS IN SPCLY THE 18Z-24Z PDS OF SUN AND MON.

HI TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUN...WITH AREAS S OF THE UPPER TROF
AXIS ABLE TO GET MORE SUNSHINE N SUN LIKELY HEATING UP SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS. FOR THIS
REASON...WE WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE NRN AREAS AND AT OR
EVEN A LITTLE ABV GUIDANCE FOR E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HI TEMPS
MON SHOULD RANGE LESS FROM N TO S ACROSS THE FA...IF CLD CVR IS MORE
UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE FA. ALTHOUGH LOW CLD CVR IS STILL
POSSIBLE SAT NGT AND SUN NGT...WRLY COMPONENT SFC WINDS SHOULD
MITIGATE FOG POTENTIAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS AT THE START IF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A LOW
PRESS SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE OVER EASTERN NOVA
SCOTIA. A 2NDRY LOW IN EASTERN QUEBEC WEST OF MAINE. THE MODELS
HOWEVER DISAGREE ON THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE
ECMWF PLACES IT ACROSS NRN ME...THE GFS HAS IT S ACROSS SRN ME.
THEY REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH TO 12Z THURS. AT THIS
POINT THE GFS MOVES A LOW PRESS SYSTEM INTO ERN QUEBEC WITH IS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING EAST INTO SRN ME. THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WEAK TROUGH ACROSS NRN ME OTHERWISE A WEAK HIGH PRESS RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION. THEY CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF SINK WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK 1018HPA LOW OVER NEW BRUNSWICK...THE GFS
HAS A DEEPER LOW 1008HPA OVER BAR HARBOR. BY 12Z FRI A LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS NRN QUEBEC THAT BOTH MODELS PICKUP ON THOUGH THE
POSITION OF THE LOW AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT VARY THE GENERALLY AGREE
BRINGING A LOW PRESS SYSTEM INTO NRN ME BY MID DAY FRI THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED GMOS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR THE SKY CON LOADED GFS THURS THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD. FELT
THAT THE SKY CON ON GMOS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS.
LOADED WNA WW3 WAVE 4 GUIDANCE...ADJUSTED THE SEAS DOWN FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SWELLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AS
THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT THAT THEY WOULD BE
AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATED.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO
PREDOMINATELY IFR TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SAT MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE FAR SW BY MIDDAY AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...STARTING IN THE SOUTH AND SPREADING NORTH.

IFR OR LOW MVFR CLGS BY NGT AND HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CLGS BY DAY WILL
CONT SAT NGT THRU WED.
&&

.MARINE...
WAVES WILL BE AROUND 3-4 FEET IN A SOUTH SWELL WITH A PERIOD NEAR
6 SECONDS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS. DO NOT EXPECT AN
SCA TO BE REQUIRED. FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD UNTIL IT STARTS
DISSIPATING IN THE WEST PARTS OF THE WATERS MIDDAY SAT. THE FOG
WILL BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST.

NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERMS. WENT WITH 4 KM
WNW WW3 WV GUIDANCE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/VJN

000
FXUS61 KGYX 031829
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
229 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COOL WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A BIT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H5 CUTOFF/UPR LVL TROF WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NE TNGT. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY AS A TRAILING CD FNT MOVES E INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
THERE ARE SHRA AND TSTMS POPPING UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
...MAINLY OVER THE MT ZONES WHILE A LARGER AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CANADA INTO
NY AND VT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LVL SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN BUT STILL BRING SOME SHRA AND PSBL ISOLD TO MAYBE SCT TSTMS
TO THE FCST AREA TNGT. ALSO WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH AREAS OF DENSE
F FORMING SINCE GROUND IS SO WET AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LGT THRU
MUCH OF THE NGT. WINDS MAY TRY TO PICK UP TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THAT
MAY HELP LIFT THE F. GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE H5 CUTOFF/TROF CONT TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NE ON SATURDAY. THE
SFC LOW MOVES DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE WHILE A TRAILING CD FNT MOVES
SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHRA AND PSBL
TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TDA. WINDS TURN TO THE W AND MAY
BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY TO HELP KEEP OUT MARINE INFLUENCE ON TEMPS
AND CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL FOR ANY OCEAN STRATUS TO MOVE INLAND.
GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST...IT WOULD APPEAR SOME SHORT TERM
RELIEF WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND COUPLED WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...IT`S QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH
AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEPS THE NEW TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES AND IS REPLACED BY A RIDGE. IN THE
DAILIES...A SEASONABLE DAY SUNDAY WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED
TO THE MOUNTAINS . TURNING COOLER AND UNSETTLED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES A RETURN. DRIER AND MILDER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LOW PRES MOVES DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE AND A TRAILING CD FNT MOVES THRU THE REGION TNGT AND
SATURDAY. THUS SOME SHRA AND PSBL TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED BUT ALSO
AREAS OF DENSE F LIKELY TO FORM TNGT. WINDS MAY PICK UP TOWARD
MORNING TO HELP LIFT THE F...SO CONFIDENCE NOT EXTREMELY HIGH ON
HOW MUCH F FORMS TNGT...BUT WITH GROUND SO WET AND WINDS DROPPING
OFF FOR AWHILE EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
IF NOT ALL TAF SITES TNGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY.
STILL THE CHC OF SHRA AND PSBL TSTMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BLO SCA
LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM. LOW PRES MOVES DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE
WITH A TRAILING CD FNT MOVING SLOWLY E INTO THE REGION TNGT AND
ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA LEVELS. AREAS OF DENSE F WILL
CONT THRU THE NGT BUT THE CD FNT AND WINDS PICKING UP AND SHIFTING
TO A MORE W DIRECTION SHOULD HELP MOVE OUT LOW CLOUDS AND F ON
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA VALUES.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 031657
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1257 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY ROTATES
AROUND IT TODAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY... THEN ARRIVE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AT THIS TIME...JUST A FEW TWEAKS HERE OR THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SECOND WAVE NOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS WRN PA WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE NE TODAY...AND AGAIN PROVIDE A THREAT OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
SOME CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT NOT REMOVE IT. WINDS ALOFT HAVE SHIFTED
TO SW...AND DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS HAS MOVED IN...THIS WILL ACT
TO LOWER PW VALUES SOMEWHAT. ALSO THE SW FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
DOWN THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR NH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BREAKS OF SUN...WHICH...ALTHOUGH A WELCOME CHANGE...WILL ALSO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED CHC OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING. ALONG THE
COAST...THE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SW TODAY...BUT IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO MIX THRU THE MARINE LYR...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER...BUT
STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY S OF KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE COULD BE BREAK INT EH MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MORE SHRA TO MOVE IN BEFORE SUNRISE AS ANOTHER 500MB
WAVE APPROACHES.

ON SAT...THAT WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. BEST DYNAMICS OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BETTER PART OF OF THE DAY FOR CHC SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH. WINDS SHIFT TO W OR NW BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS AT LEAST P/SUNNY...BUT GIVEN COLD AIR
ALOFT...ANY DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION. SHOULD
BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLACES...AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE WARMER SPOTS HITTING 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE BEST DAY
WE`VE SEEN FOR A WHILE WITH SOME WELCOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL APPROACH ONCE AGAIN AND BRING THE THREAT
OF DAILY SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE AS GLOOMY PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES APPROACH
NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. USED GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDDED DATABASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME AS
FAR AS CIGS GO...BUT VSBY IS GOOD AT ALL TAF SITES. CIG WILL
REMAIN VARIABLE AVERAGING MVFR BUT WITH SOME VFR AND PSBL IFR AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY -SHRA OR ISOLD TSTM WHICH COULD ALSO
LWR VSBY. THREAT OF TSTMS SLGT...SO ONLY MENTIONED AS CB IN CLOUD
GROUP. DUE TO ABUNDANCE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WITH ANY CLEARING
OR PARTIAL CLEARING...LIKELY TO SEE DENSE F FORMING TNGT WITH LIFR
OR PSBL IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS...THOUGH SEAS MAY TOUCH ON
THE 5 FT LVL OVER THE OUTERMOST WATERS AT TIMES. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING SOME LARGE BREAKS OVER THE WRN WATERS AND CLOUDS THINNING
OVER A LARGER AREA COVERING A MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THUS THE
F WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AND AS DENSE AS PAST FEW DAYS. WILL SHOW
THIS IN THE FCST WITH JUST PATCHY F. UNFORTUNATELY THE F WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH VERY LOW VSBY AGAIN TNGT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS TDA OR TNGT. SOME
SHRA AND ISOLD TO MAYBE SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA. THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
PSBL WITH MAYBE SOME LOCAL MINOR FLOOD ISSUES...BUT NOT A SERIOUS
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HAVE ISSUED THE CLIMATE SUMMARIES FOR CON, PWM AND GYX WITH JUST
THE STATISTICS. HOWEVER, PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED WITH DATA QUALITY
CONTROLLED ALONG WITH WRITTEN SUMMARIES INCLUDED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 031353
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY ROTATES
AROUND IT TODAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY... THEN ARRIVE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY COVER AND POP DOWN TO MORE OPTIMISTIC
LEVELS OVER SRN AND CENTRAL ZONES PER LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
LOOPS. OTRW NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME...JUST A FEW
TWEAKS HERE OR THERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SECOND WAVE NOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS WRN PA WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE NE TODAY...AND AGAIN PROVIDE A THREAT OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER
...SOME CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT NOT REMOVE IT. WINDS ALOFT HAVE SHIFTED
TO SW...AND DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS HAS MOVED IN...THIS WILL ACT
TO LOWER PW VALUES SOMEWHAT. ALSO THE SW FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX
DOWN THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR NH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BREAKS OF SUN...WHICH...ALTHOUGH A WELCOME CHANGE...WILL ALSO
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED CHC OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...AND THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING. ALONG THE
COAST...THE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SW TODAY...BUT IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO MIX THRU THE MARINE LYR...SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER...BUT
STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY S OF KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE COULD BE BREAK INT EH MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MORE SHRA TO MOVE IN BEFORE SUNRISE AS ANOTHER 500MB
WAVE APPROACHES.

ON SAT...THAT WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. BEST DYNAMICS OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BETTER PART OF OF THE DAY FOR CHC SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH. WINDS SHIFT TO W OR NW BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS AT LEAST P/SUNNY...BUT GIVEN COLD AIR
ALOFT...ANY DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION. SHOULD
BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLACES...AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE WARMER SPOTS HITTING 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE BEST DAY
WE`VE SEEN FOR A WHILE WITH SOME WELCOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL APPROACH ONCE AGAIN AND BRING THE THREAT
OF DAILY SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE AS GLOOMY PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES APPROACH
NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. USED GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDDED DATABASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...STRATUS AND F WILL CONT TO LIFT
THRU THE MORNING WITH VSBY IMPROVING MORE QUICKLY THAN CIG.
ALREADY LOTS OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SRN AND WRN NH AND
A FEW BREAKS IN SW MAINE...SO IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN
QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH NOT SO QUICK IN OTHERS. COULD SEE
SCT SHRA AND TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING LWR CIG AND
VSBY. DUE TO ABUNDANCE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WITH ANY CLEARING
OR PARTIAL CLEARING...LIKELY TO SEE DENSE F FORMING TNGT WITH LIFR
OR PSBL IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BLO
SCA LEVELS...THOUGH SEAS MAY TOUCH ON THE 5 FT LVL OVER THE
OUTERMOST WATERS AT TIMES. BIGGEST CONCERN IS AREAS OF DENSE F
WHICH WILL LINGER THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWING SOME LARGE BREAKS OVER THE WRN WATERS AND CLOUDS THINNING
OVER A LARGER AREA COVERING A MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THUS THE
F WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AND AS DENSE AS PAST FEW DAYS. WILL SHOW
THIS IN THE FCST. UNFORTUNATELY THE F WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH VERY LOW VSBY AGAIN TNGT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING TSTMS AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...AIR ALOFT IS A LITTLE DRIER AND AREAL COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN. STILL...THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY SATURATED GROUND AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ON
STREAMS AND RIVERS. FOR NOW...COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED... AND TRYING
TO PINPOINT AREA WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS REMAINS DIFFICULT...SO
WILL NO FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME THOUGH WILL MONITOR
FOR ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES LATER TDA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 031105
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY ROTATES AROUND
IT TODAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THEN ARRIVE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...MAINLY FOR THIS MORNING...OF
WHICH THE ONE WORTH MENTIONING IS BACKING OFF LKLY POPS IN THE NRN
ZONES TO CHC.

SECOND WAVE NOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS WRN PA WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE NE TODAY...AND AGAIN PROVIDE A THREAT OF
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WILL
HELP TO REDUCE THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT NOT REMOVE IT. WINDS
ALOFT HAVE SHIFTED TO SW...AND DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS HAS MOVED
IN...THIS WILL ACT TO LOWER PW VALUES SOMEWHAT. ALSO THE SW FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR NH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUN...WHICH...ALTHOUGH A WELCOME
CHANGE...WILL ALSO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED
CHC OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...AND THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING. ALONG
THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SW TODAY...BUT IT WILL
TAKE LONGER TO MIX THRU THE MARINE LYR...SO CLOUDS WILL
LINGER...BUT STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY S OF KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE COULD BE BREAK INT EH MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MORE SHRA TO MOVE IN BEFORE SUNRISE AS ANOTHER 500MB
WAVE APPROACHES.

ON SAT...THAT WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. BEST DYNAMICS OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BETTER PART OF OF THE DAY FOR CHC SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH. WINDS SHIFT TO W OR NW BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS AT LEAST P/SUNNY...BUT GIVEN COLD AIR
ALOFT...ANY DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION. SHOULD
BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLACES...AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE WARMER SPOTS HITTING 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE BEST DAY
WE`VE SEEN FOR A WHILE WITH SOME WELCOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL APPROACH ONCE AGAIN AND BRING THE THREAT
OF DAILY SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE AS GLOOMY PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES APPROACH
NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. USED GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDDED DATABASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY IFR OR LOWER THRU SUNRISE...AND THEN SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON...TO VFR AT KCON/KLEB...AND TO AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS AT KPSM/KPWM/KAUG...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW HOURS OF VFR
IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS/VIS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE LINGERS...BUT THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL STILL PUSH 5 FT THRU TODAY...AND
FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE WITH US FOR ONE MORE DAY...BUT WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S TODAY...AND THEN TO THE WEST ON SAT...AND CONDS WILL REMAIN
BLO SAC LVLS.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING SLOW-MOVING AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN TODAY...HOWEVER...AIR ALOFT IS A LITTLE DRIER AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN. STILL...THERE REMAINS A THREAT THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SATURATED GROUND IN SOME
SPOTS...BUT FOR NOW...COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED...AND TRYING TO
PINPOINT AREA WHERE CONVECTION REMAINS DIFFICULT...SO WILL EXPIRE
CURRENT FFA AND KEEP OPTIONS OPEN FOR ANOTHER WATCH LATER THIS
MORNING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KCAR 031008
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
608 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZFP TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR AND SATL TRENDS
W/PRECIP MOVING ENE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION PULLING INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION STILL SHOWING UP PER LTG
DETECTION BUT IT IS WANING ATTM. RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADS
MAINLY IN COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AS NEXT IMPULSE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SO HAVE INCLUDED
ENHANCED WORDING. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING BUT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE SHOWING WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. FORECAST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A BIT UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE SHOWING
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. GFS MOVES THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND MOVES THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GMOS WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WHICH
KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TO MVR AND THEN VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

000
FXUS61 KCAR 030804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY BUSY THIS MORNING SO WILL BE BRIEF.

RADAR SHOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE AT TIME. HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST EAST MAINE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLOODING FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICIALS IN HANCOCK COUNTY. WHATS LEFT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NEXT IMPULSE
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SO HAVE INCLUDED ENHANCED WORDING.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING BUT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE SHOWING WEAK RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST. FORECAST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A BIT UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE SHOWING
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. GFS MOVES THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. ECMWF
IS SLOWER AND MOVES THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GMOS WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WHICH
KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE TO MVR AND THEN VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. IFR/MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/DUDA
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...DUDA/HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

000
FXUS61 KGYX 030743
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
343 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY ROTATES AROUND
IT TODAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THEN ARRIVE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT 500MB WAVE ROTATED AROUND BASE OF 500 MB
CLOSED LOW OVER NY LAST NIGHT...WHICH BROUGHT US THE BOUT OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT ALSO...HAD ENOUGH OF PUNCH TO START THE CLOSED MOVING
TO THE EAST. SECOND NOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS WRN PA WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE NE TODAY...AND AGAIN PROVIDE A THREAT OF
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WILL
HELP TO REDUCE THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT NOT REMOVE IT. WINDS
ALOFT HAVE SHIFTED TO SW...AND DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS HAS MOVED
IN...THIS WILL ACT TO LOWER PW VALUES SOMEWHAT. ALSO THE SW FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR NH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUN...WHICH...ALTHOUGH A WELCOME
CHANGE...WILL ALSO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED
CHC OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...AND THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING. ALONG
THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SW TODAY...BUT IT WILL
TAKE LONGER TO MIX THRU THE MARINE LYR...SO CLOUDS WILL
LINGER...BUT STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY S OF KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE COULD BE BREAK INT EH MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MORE SHRA TO MOVE IN BEFORE SUNRISE AS ANOTHER 500MB
WAVE APPROACHES.

ON SAT...THAT WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. BEST DYNAMICS OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BETTER PART OF OF THE DAY FOR CHC SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH. WINDS SHIFT TO W OR NW BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS AT LEAST P/SUNNY...BUT GIVEN COLD AIR
ALOFT...ANY DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION. SHOULD
BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLACES...AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE WARMER SPOTS HITTING 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE BEST DAY
WE`VE SEEN FOR A WHILE WITH SOME WELCOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL APPROACH ONCE AGAIN AND BRING THE THREAT
OF DAILY SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE AS GLOOMY PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES APPROACH
NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN REMAIN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. USED GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDDED DATABASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY IFR OR LOWER THRU SUNRISE...AND THEN SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON...TO VFR AT KCON/KLEB...AND TO AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS AT KPSM/KPWM/KAUG...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW HOURS OF VFR
IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS/VIS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE LINGERS...BUT THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL STILL PUSH 5 FT THRU TODAY...AND
FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE WITH US FOR ONE MORE DAY...BUT WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S TODAY...AND THEN TO THE WEST ON SAT...AND CONDS WILL REMAIN
BLO SAC LVLS.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATCHING A FEW OF THE MORE FLASHY RIVERS AS THEY CREST JUST BLO
FLOOD EARLY THIS MORNING / SWIFT...PEMI...SACO...PRESUMPSCOT /.
ALSO...EXPECTING SLOW-MOVING AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...HOWEVER...AIR ALOFT IS A LITTLE DRIER.
STILL...THERE REMAINS A THREAT THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SATURATED GROUND IN SOME SPOTS...BUT
FOR NOW...COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED...AND TRYING TO PINPOINT AREA
WHERE CONVECTION REMAINS DIFFICULT...SO WILL EXPIRE CURRENT FFA
AND KEEP OPTIONS OPEN FOR ANOTHER WATCH LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA

000
FXUS61 KGYX 030715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY ROTATES AROUND
IT TODAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THEN ARRIVE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT 500MB WAVE ROTATED AROUND BASE OF 500 MB
CLOSED LOW OVER NY LAST NIGHT...WHICH BROUGHT US THE BOUT OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT ALSO...HAD ENOUGH OF PUNCH TO START THE CLOSED MOVING
TO THE EAST. SECOND NOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS WRN PA WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE NE TODAY...AND AGAIN PROVIDE A THREAT OF
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WILL
HELP TO REDUCE THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT NOT REMOVE IT. WINDS
ALOFT HAVE SHIFTED TO SW...AND DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS HAS MOVED
IN...THIS WILL ACT TO LOWER PW VALUES SOMEWHAT. ALSO THE SW FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN THE SFC...ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR NH. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR BREAKS OF SUN...WHICH...ALTHOUGH A WELCOME
CHANGE...WILL ALSO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED
CHC OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...AND THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING. ALONG
THE COAST...THE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SW TODAY...BUT IT WILL
TAKE LONGER TO MIX THRU THE MARINE LYR...SO CLOUDS WILL
LINGER...BUT STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY S OF KPWM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE COULD BE BREAK INT EH MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT MORE SHRA TO MOVE IN BEFORE SUNRISE AS ANOTHER 500MB
WAVE APPROACHES.

ON SAT...THAT WAVE...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. BEST DYNAMICS OCCUR IN THE MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BETTER PART OF OF THE DAY FOR CHC SHRA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTH. WINDS SHIFT TO W OR NW BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS AT LEAST P/SUNNY...BUT GIVEN COLD AIR
ALOFT...ANY DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION. SHOULD
BE A SEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLACES...AND
EVEN A FEW OF THE WARMER SPOTS HITTING 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE BEST DAY
WE`VE SEEN FOR A WHILE WITH SOME WELCOME SUNSHINE. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL APPROACH ONCE AGAIN AND BRING THE THREAT
OF DAILY SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DOESN`T APPEAR
TO BE AS GLOOMY PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES APPROACH NORMAL SUNDAY...
THEN REMAIN JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. USED GMOS TO POPULATE GRIDDED DATABASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY IFR OR LOWER THRU SUNRISE...AND THEN SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON...TO VFR AT KCON/KLEB...AND TO AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS AT KPSM/KPWM/KAUG...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW HOURS OF VFR
IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS/VIS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE LINGERS...BUT THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON SAT.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN LOWERING TO
MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL STILL PUSH 5 FT THRU TODAY...AND
FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE WITH US FOR ONE MORE DAY...BUT WINDS SHIFT TO
THE S TODAY...AND THEN TO THE WEST ON SAT...AND CONDS WILL REMAIN
BLO SAC LVLS.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATCHING A FEW OF THE MORE FLASHY RIVERS AS THEY CREST JUST BLO
FLOOD EARLY THIS MORNING / SWIFT...PEMI...SACO...PRESUMPSCOT /.
ALSO...EXPECTING SLOW-MOVING AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...HOWEVER...AIR ALOFT IS A LITTLE DRIER.
STILL...THERE REMAINS A THREAT THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SATURATED GROUND IN SOME SPOTS...BUT
FOR NOW...COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED...AND TRYING TO PINPOINT AREA
WHERE CONVECTION REMAINS DIFFICULT...SO WILL EXPIRE CURRENT FFA
AND KEEP OPTIONS OPEN FOR ANOTHER WATCH LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ018-
     023.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NHZ005>010-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA

000
FXUS61 KGYX 021911
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT...REACHING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE COOL WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE H5 CUTOFF SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES E OVER THE FCST AREA TNGT WITH
SFC LOW AND TRAILING FNT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL KEEP
ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHRA, LOW CLOUDS AND F ALONG WITH CHC OF TSTMS
DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER.
GENERALLY USED GFS40, BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND HPC QPF. MAIN
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS QPF AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM TNGT AND
ALSO INCLUDE OUR SW NH ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE H5 CUTOFF CONTINUES TO MOVE E FORCING THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING
FNT TO PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP SHRA AND TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND F WILL LIFT DURING
THE MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS PSBL...BUT MOSTLY OVER
MORE WRN AND MT ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST...IT WOULD APPEAR
SOME SHORT TERM RELIEF WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
COUPLED WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...IT`S QUICKLY REPLACED BY
ANOTHER TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. SO IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT OUTSIDE OF A SHORT BREAK THE COOL AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT EXITS THE
COAST ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE FLOW
PROVIDING A SEASONABLE DAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...A LINGERING TROUGH AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH ONSHORE FLOW DOMINATING /WITH STRATUS, F AND SHRA WITH
EMBEDDED CHC TSTMS/ WITH SFC LOW AND TRAILING FNT APPROACHING FROM
THE W. SOME IMPROVING WX FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR OR PSBL VFR
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS THOUGH STILL THREAT OF SHRA AND
TSTMS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY JUST BLO
SCA LEVELS...THOUGH SEAS OVER OUTER MOST WATERS MAY TOUCH 5 FT AT
TIMES AND A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER SRN WATERS MAY HIT 25 KTS. NO SCA
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONT INTO
THE NGT AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP IN LOTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREATES CONVECTIVE CELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED
TO 4 AM TNGT AND WILL BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE NH ZONES 5 AND 7 IN
WRN NH. HAVE JUST ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR YORK COUNTY IN
EXTREME SW MAINE TIL 6 PM OR SO FOR CURRENT RADAR AND REPORT OF
SHOULDER WASHOUTS ON SOME ROADS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NHZ005>010-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 021848
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
248 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND REACH
MAINE THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP...MOSTLY IN THE NW PORTION OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CAPE AVAILABLE SO THE SHOWERS ARE PULSING
UP AND DOWN QUICKLY. THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS
HEATING DECREASES. THE CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IN
EASTERN MASS AND SW MAINE. EXPECT THIS VORT MAX TO ROTATE AROUND
THE PARENT UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO INTO THE CWA. THE ENTIRE UPPER LOW
SHOULD BE SHIFTING EASTWARD SIMULTANEOUSLY. THE AREA OF PRECIP IN
MASS, SW MAINE AND EXTENDING SE INTO GULF OF MAINE WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING...AFFECTING SW PARTS OF THE AREA
FIRST AND EXITING THE NORTH BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HEAVIER AMTS OF PRECIP SEEMS TO BE
ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS TOWARDS MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. WENT WITH SCT
TS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA DURING AFTERNOON BUT CAPES WERE
UNIMPRESSIVE ELSEWHERE AND WENT WITH SHOWERS ONLY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHG IN THE OVRALL UPPER PATTERN OVR
THE FA FRI NGT THRU SUN WITH S/WVS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW(S)
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. ONE FACTOR SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS IS THE
POTENTIAL OF MORE CAPE SAT AFT/ERLY EVE AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT/
WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE SAT NGT AND
ERLY SUN MORN AS A STRONGER S/WV APCHS AND CROSSES THE REGION. WE
KEPT MENTION OF AFT/EVE TSTMS FOR SAT BUT HELD OFF ON ENHANCED HVY
RN/WIND/HAIL WORDING ATTM...BUT WITH PROJECTED CAPES AS HIGH AS
1000 TO 1500 J...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS HVY RNFL
WILL CAN BE SUPPORTED.

OTHERWISE...MCLDY SKIES...PATCHY FOG AND SCT SHWRS WILL CONT FRI NGT
AND LATE SAT NGT. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS MUCH AGREEMENT FOR SUN...WITH
THE 12Z GFS APPEARING TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THE 12Z NAM FOR SUN AFT.
GIVEN THAT THE 12Z GFS IS A DEPARTURE FROM ITS PREVIOUS 06Z RUN AND
FROM MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE...WE LEFT CHC TSTM POPS IN THE
GRIDS FOR SPCLY SUN AFT AND SPCLY THE NRN PTN OF THE FA. POPS CAN BE
LOWERED IN LATER UPDATES IF MORE MODEL SUPPORT INDICATES A SIMILAR
TREND TO THE OPNL 12Z GFS.

TEMPS...SPCLY HI TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SAT AND SUN AND WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL BE AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...WE BLENDED
GFS/NAM MODEL WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND COMBINED IT WITH GFS ENS MEAN
AND ENS LOW TEMPS FOR THESE PDS. SAME FOR LOW TEMPS FRI NGT AND SAT
NGT...XCPT MODEL AND MOS TEMPS WERE COMBINED WITH GFS ENS MEAN AND
ENS HI TEMPS TO LOWER THE DIURNAL SPREAD TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH SUMMER-LIKE MSLY CLDY SHWRY DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CONFUSED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. THE
GFS AND ECMWF AT ODDS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
INDICATES A LOWS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND A LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH MAINE SITTING IN AN
AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH MAINE SITTING UNDER A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE TIME SERIES CONTINUES THE DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES IT
NORTH EAST TO THE NH/ME BOARDER BY 12Z MON. THE ECMWF MOVE THE LOW
EAST FARTHER INTO THE MARITIMES WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS NRN ME. THIS PATTERN CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z THUR WERE THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE CLOSER TO AGREEMENT. LOADED THE GMOS...MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY CON...POPS ON DAY 5-7 SO THEY WOULD
BETTER SUPPORT EACH OTHER.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO MOSTLY IFR
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR BY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PROVIDE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR CLGS/
VSBYS BY NGT AND MVFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS BY DAY WILL CONT FRI NGT
THRU TUE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP UPWARD FROM NEAR 2 FEET TO
3-4 FEET BY FRIDAY IN A SOUTHEAST SWELL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER THE WATERS FROM COASTAL MASS AND NH SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS NEAR
PENOBSCOT BAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE SW WITH GUSTS NEARING 20 KTS AT TIMES.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED THRU THE SHORT TERM. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF NAM SWAN AND 4/10 KM WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS THRU SUN.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/VJN

000
FXUS61 KCAR 021459
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1059 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND REACH
MAINE THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CONCERN TODAY IS THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN MASS AND SW
MAINE. MODELS SUCH AS RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
IDENTIFYING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE INTO THIS FORECAST AREA.
CHOSE ECMWF AND HFC GRIDS FOR QPF. LATEST 12Z NAM IS COMING TO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THESE MODELS. EXPECT THIS VORT MAX TO ROTATE
AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW IN ONTARIO INTO THE CWA. THE ENTIRE
UPPER LOW SHOULD BE SHIFTING EASTWARD SIMULTANEOUSLY. LOOKING FOR
THE AREA OF PRECIP IN MASS AND SW MAINE...EXTENDING SE INTO
ATLANTIC TO BASICALLY HOLD TOGETHER AND ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO
THE CWA LATER TODAY...AFFECTING SW PARTS OF THE AREA FIRST AND
EXITING THE NORTH BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING
FROM THE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING IN SE NH AND SW MAINE. HAVE GONE WITH SCT THUNDER OVER
COASTAL WATERS FOR NOW BUT WILL PROBABLY ADD INTO GRIDS FOR SW
PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN BY
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH HEAVIER RAIN BANDS AS THIS FEATURE
PROPAGATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. HAVE OVER AN INCH QPF IN
MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH LATEST GRIDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

FOR FRIDAY...LOW PRES LIFTING UP THROUGH QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DECIDED ON A COMBO
OF THE SREF/GFS AND THE NAM12 FOR POPS WHICH PUTS THE HIGHEST POPS
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY FRIDAY AND
THE POPS WIND DOWN AS THE CWA GETS IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING TO SOME SB/MUCAPES OF 700-1000 J/KG W/CLOUD COVER
LIS DROP BACK TO -3 TO -4 ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. KIS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LAPSE RATES FROM
700-500MBS HIT ABV 6.0 C/KM. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO GO W/SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHEAR IS NOTED IN THE 0-6KM LAYER (15+ KTS). SOME
VEERING OF THE WINDS IS ALSO NOTED ESP IN THE LLVLS. ATTM...DECIDED
TO TO HOLD OFF ON ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL/WINDS) GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. SPC DOES HAVE THE NERN STATES IN A SEE TEXT FOR FRIDAY.
IF LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUN...THEN THE
ENHANCED WORDING MAY BE NEEDED. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS
FURTHER WITH NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE GMOS BASED
W/TEMPERATURES TWEAKED DOWN ESP ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON.

FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF TAKES THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW
AND BRINGS THEM OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EXCEPT THAT IT HAS LOWS FURTHER N. ANYWAY YOU SLICE
IT...ANOTHER WET DAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...DISTRIBUTION OF POPS WAS TO HAVE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS W/CHC CATEGORY FOR
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. DOWNPLAYED GMOS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLENDED THE ECMWF AND GMOS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNSETTLED FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRYING LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS MONDAY AND TO LOWER
THE VALUES TO 20%. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MORNING
ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA. GMOS TEMPERATURES WERE ACCEPTED W/LITTLE CHGS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD W/BOUTS OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. WIND SPEED A LITTLE HIGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MARINE LAYER SO WILL
LOWER WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS. FOR WAVES: HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS
WITH WNA/4. WAVE MODEL DOING REASONABLE JOB WITH LONG PERIOD WAVE
LAST 24 HOURS. WAVE HEIGHT COMES UP TONIGHT. A LOOK AT SPECTRAL
SUGGEST THIS THE RESULT OF WIND WAVE GROUP AND THIS APPEARS TOO
HIGH SO WILL LOWER THIS LATER TONIGHT BY 1 FOOT. WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF FOG RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. CARRIED THE FOG INTO
SATURDAY ATTM. WINDS ARE A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS INTO SATURDAY
AND THE GFS/GMOS BLEND WAS USED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS MATCH CLOSE TO THE WNAWAVE W/ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER HEIGHTS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TOO HIGH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE/MWALKER
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/MWALKER
MARINE...MIGNONE/MWALKER/HEWITT

000
FXUS61 KGYX 021328
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
928 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MARKING A RETURN TO COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE THE CHC OF PRCP TDA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA OF SRN AND CENTRAL NH AND EXTREME SW MAINE.
IN FACT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SRN AND
CENTRAL NH THRU NOON TDA. WILL ADD SOME DENSE F TO COASTAL ZONES
FOR TDA. OTRW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST. MAIN CONCERN TDA IS
RAINFALL, EMBEDDED TSTMS, QPF AND ANY FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH 600 AM...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT PIVOTS AROUND AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE SPARK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE SAME REGION. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN
ELEVATED...WITH THE 06Z GFS SHOWING BEST LI/S OF -1 TO -3 NEAR
BOSTON...THEN BECOMING MORE STABLE EAST OF PORTLAND. 06Z NAM
BUFKIT PAINTS A SIMILAR PICTURE...WITH ELEVATED CAPES DROPPING OFF
NORTH OF LEB- PWM. MUCH AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD
FLATTEN AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE
REGIONS TODAY.

RADAR ONCE AGAIN SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING...THIS
TIME IN EASTERN CONNECTICUT. WHILE THE 00Z GFS/NAM DID NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORTWAVE...AND THUS QPFS WERE SUSPECT...THE
06Z RUNS APPEAR TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS MUCH BETTER. EACH NOW
CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND DIMINISH IT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES FURTHER NORTH WHERE THERE IS LESS ELEVATED CAPE. WHILE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A SIMILAR TREND...WAS ABLE TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE 06Z RUNS...BETTER FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.

FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE MOISTURE TRAINING INTO
CONNECTICUT WILL TRACK. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THE WATER VAPOR DOES NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES...
SUGGESTING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
DAYTIME HEATING. YESTERDAY...STRATUS STAYED IN PLACE ACROSS ALMOST
THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BREAKS ON THE FRINGES (AS OCCURRED
TUESDAY)...SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. NAM/GFS BUFKIT CONTINUE TO SHOW LONG-THIN
ELEVATED CAPES...SO WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA.

USE A BLEND OF NAM MOS AND YESTERDAY/S HIGHS FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS SEEMS (AND HAS BEEN) TOO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SEEMS THE SURFACE TROF
ITSELF. HERE...FEEL MODELS DO A FAIRLY GOOD JOB KEYING IN ON
THIS...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
LIFTING ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT TO RUN FROM .25 TO .50...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FEATURE WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH POPS FOLLOWING THAT
TREND. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN...IS TO THE
WEST TONIGHT.

EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN THICKEN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN VARY LITTLE...STRUGGLING TO DROP AT ALL
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES ARE COMING TO THE 500MB PATTERN...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY
SOMEWHAT AS TO EXACTLY HOW THOSE CHANGES PAN OUT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME LEVEL OF IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR FRI/SAT...WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE 500MB CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF ALL THE MISERABLE WX DURING THIS
WEEK...BUT IT WILL FINALLY ON THE MOVE...AS TWO WAVES DIG INTO ITS
TROUGH...AND BEGIN TO SHIFT IT EAST ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. FIRST
WAVE ACTUALLY ROTATES OUT OF BASE TROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...AND
THIS WILL SHIFT LOW-MID LVL FLOW TO THE SW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING AN END TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME CLEARING...EVEN ON THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND SUNSHINE AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY...AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. SOME DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT IN BEHIND THIS EAVE AS WELL...WHICH WILL HELP TO
MINIMIZE THE HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY...AS UPPER
LVL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH CLOSED LOW STILL JUST
OUR WEST. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN 500MB
LOW AND COLD CORE ALOFT MOVE OVER CWA ON SAT. HOWEVER...LOW-MID
FLOW BECOMES W...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS...WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A THREAT...BUT SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW. MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER
CHC FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS.

500MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE MARITIMES ON SUN...AND THE MTNS
WILL LKLY BE DEALING WITH SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
SCT SHRA. TO THE SOUTH IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH SCT CLOUDS. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO
NW...ZONAL...OR EVEN RIDGING BY MID-WEEK...DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE. STILL...ALL POINT TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FLOW
WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY ONSHORE FLOW
OTHER THAN SEA BREEZE. SO...WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME UNSETTLED
PERIODS...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AGAIN TREND TOWARDS PESSIMISTIC
END OF GUIDANCE...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AT CON-PSM-PWM-AUG. BREAKS AN/OR LIFTING ARE
POSSIBLE AT LEB. VSBY A BIT MORE TRICKY...WITH LOWEST VSBY ALONG
THE COAST...BUT IN GENERAL IT HAS BEEN VERY SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE
FEATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT VSBY TO RISE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH SOME VARIATIONS LIKELY.

AT CON-PWM-PSM-AUG FEEL THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING EMBEDDED IN CONVECTION...BUT THIS CHANCE FOR ANY
PARTICULAR SITE IS STILL RELATIVELY SMALL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST
AS CONFIDENCE IN UPSTREAM CONVECTION GROWS. LEB MAY SEE AN
AFTERNOON -TSRA...BUT AGAIN CHANCES TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VSBY TO DROP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF 1/4SM VSBY AT SEVERAL SITES. UNCERTAIN IN
TIMING...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO TAFS NOT QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC
HERE...BUT A 3 - 6 HR PERIOD OF 1/4SM VSBY IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH THAT FEATURE.

LONG TERM...ALL IN ALL EXPECTING IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON FRI...HOWEVER SCT TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE FRI AFT/EVE. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME UP
OVER THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR MORE SRN WATERS.
HOWEVER, THEY ARE JUST BLO SCA LEVELS AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY.
BIGGER CONCERN IS CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DENSE F WITH VSBY AT OR
BLO 1/4 MILE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT IN THE MARINE FCST THRU
THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT WILL LINGER INTO FRI...AND
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PROBABLY NOT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP UNTIL FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING THRU NOON TDA FOR MUCH OF SRN
AND CENTRAL NH...THE WARNING COVERS NH THAT WAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR YORK COUNTY IN EXTREME
SW MAINE AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING INTO THAT
AREA SOMETIME TDA. RADAR SHOWING MDT TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING
ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH AND AN AREAS MOVING INTO SW MAINE AT
THIS TIME. PLENTY OF MORE PRPC UPSTREAM IN SRN NEW ENGLAND TO MOVE
INTO THIS REGION TDA. COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES /WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS/ OF ADDITIONAL RAIN TDA.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRESENT SIMILAR CONCERNS...THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ006-
     008>010-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 021107
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
707 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MARKING A RETURN TO COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 600 AM...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS IT PIVOTS AROUND AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE SPARK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING THE SAME REGION. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED...WITH
THE 06Z GFS SHOWING BEST LI/S OF -1 TO -3 NEAR BOSTON...THEN
BECOMING MORE STABLE EAST OF PORTLAND. 06Z NAM BUFKIT PAINTS A
SIMILAR PICTURE...WITH ELEVATED CAPES DROPPING OFF NORTH OF LEB-
PWM. MUCH AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD FLATTEN AND
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE REGIONS TODAY.

RADAR ONCE AGAIN SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING...THIS
TIME IN EASTERN CONNECTICUT. WHILE THE 00Z GFS/NAM DID NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORTWAVE...AND THUS QPFS WERE SUSPECT...THE
06Z RUNS APPEAR TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS MUCH BETTER. EACH NOW
CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND DIMINISH IT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES FURTHER NORTH WHERE THERE IS LESS ELEVATED CAPE. WHILE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A SIMILAR TREND...WAS ABLE TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE 06Z RUNS...BETTER FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.

FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE MOISTURE TRAINING INTO
CONNECTICUT WILL TRACK. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THE WATER VAPOR DOES NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES...
SUGGESTING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
DAYTIME HEATING. YESTERDAY...STRATUS STAYED IN PLACE ACROSS ALMOST
THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BREAKS ON THE FRINGES (AS OCCURRED
TUESDAY)...SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. NAM/GFS BUFKIT CONTINUE TO SHOW LONG-THIN
ELEVATED CAPES...SO WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA.

USE A BLEND OF NAM MOS AND YESTERDAY/S HIGHS FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS SEEMS (AND HAS BEEN) TOO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SEEMS THE SURFACE TROF
ITSELF. HERE...FEEL MODELS DO A FAIRLY GOOD JOB KEYING IN ON
THIS...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
LIFTING ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT TO RUN FROM .25 TO .50...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FEATURE WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH POPS FOLLOWING THAT
TREND. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN...IS TO THE
WEST TONIGHT.

EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN THICKEN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN VARY LITTLE...STRUGGLING TO DROP AT ALL
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES ARE COMING TO THE 500MB PATTERN...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY
SOMEWHAT AS TO EXACTLY HOW THOSE CHANGES PAN OUT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME LEVEL OF IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR FRI/SAT...WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE 500MB CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF ALL THE MISERABLE WX DURING THIS
WEEK...BUT IT WILL FINALLY ON THE MOVE...AS TWO WAVES DIG INTO ITS
TROUGH...AND BEGIN TO SHIFT IT EAST ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. FIRST
WAVE ACTUALLY ROTATES OUT OF BASE TROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...AND
THIS WILL SHIFT LOW-MID LVL FLOW TO THE SW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING AN END TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME CLEARING...EVEN ON THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND SUNSHINE AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY...AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. SOME DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT IN BEHIND THIS EAVE AS WELL...WHICH WILL HELP TO
MINIMIZE THE HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY...AS UPPER
LVL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH CLOSED LOW STILL JUST
OUR WEST. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN 500MB
LOW AND COLD CORE ALOFT MOVE OVER CWA ON SAT. HOWEVER...LOW-MID
FLOW BECOMES W...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS...WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A THREAT...BUT SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW. MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER
CHC FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS.

500MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE MARITIMES ON SUN...AND THE MTNS
WILL LKLY BE DEALING WITH SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
SCT SHRA. TO THE SOUTH IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH SCT CLOUDS. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO
NW...ZONAL...OR EVEN RIDGING BY MID-WEEK...DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE. STILL...ALL POINT TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FLOW
WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY ONSHORE FLOW
OTHER THAN SEA BREEZE. SO...WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME UNSETTLED
PERIODS...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AGAIN TREND TOWARDS PESSIMISTIC END OF
GUIDANCE...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AT CON-PSM-PWM-AUG. BREAKS AN/OR LIFTING ARE
POSSIBLE AT LEB. VSBY A BIT MORE TRICKY...WITH LOWEST VSBY ALONG
THE COAST...BUT IN GENERAL IT HAS BEEN VERY SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE
FEATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT VSBY TO RISE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH SOME VARIATIONS LIKELY.

AT CON-PWM-PSM-AUG FEEL THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING EMBEDDED IN CONVECTION...BUT THIS CHANCE FOR ANY
PARTICULAR SITE IS STILL RELATIVELY SMALL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST
AS CONFIDENCE IN UPSTREAM CONVECTION GROWS. LEB MAY SEE AN
AFTERNOON -TSRA...BUT AGAIN CHANCES TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VSBY TO DROP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF 1/4SM VSBY AT SEVERAL SITES. UNCERTAIN IN
TIMING...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO TAFS NOT QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC
HERE...BUT A 3 - 6 HR PERIOD OF 1/4SM VSBY IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH THAT FEATURE.

LONG TERM...ALL IN ALL EXPECTING IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON FRI...HOWEVER SCT TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE FRI AFT/EVE. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO HEADLINES...THOUGH DID NOTE ISLES OF SHOALS WAS
RUNNING ABOVE BOTH MOS AND MODEL DATA FOR ITS WINDS. THUS WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE NE FLOW...WHICH STILL KEEPS WINDS BELOW SCA.
SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OFF THE NH COAST...BUT KEEP SEAS SUB-SCA.

LONG TERM...SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT WILL LINGER INTO FRI...AND
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PROBABLY NOT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP UNTIL FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BY LOCATION...WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE CONCERN IS IF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS ON ONE AREA. FOLLOWING RADAR TRENDS
UPSTREAM...AM CONCERNED THAT STORMS TRAINING INTO EASTERN
CONNECTICUT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE...PROMPTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WOULD PUT STREAMS AND SOME RIVER BASINS CLOSE
TO BANKFULL.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRESENT SIMILAR CONCERNS...THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018-023.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ006-
     008>010-013-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CEMPA
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL

000
FXUS61 KGYX 021039
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
639 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MARKING A RETURN TO COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 600 AM...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS IT PIVOTS AROUND AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE SPARK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING THE SAME REGION. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED...WITH
THE 06Z GFS SHOWING BEST LI/S OF -1 TO -3 NEAR BOSTON...THEN
BECOMING MORE STABLE EAST OF PORTLAND. 06Z NAM BUFKIT PAINTS A
SIMILAR PICTURE...WITH ELEVATED CAPES DROPPING OFF NORTH OF LEB-
PWM. MUCH AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD FLATTEN AND
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE REGIONS TODAY.

RADAR ONCE AGAIN SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING...THIS
TIME IN EASTERN CONNECTICUT. WHILE THE 00Z GFS/NAM DID NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORTWAVE...AND THUS QPFS WERE SUSPECT...THE
06Z RUNS APPEAR TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS MUCH BETTER. EACH NOW
CAPTURE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND DIMINISH IT AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES FURTHER NORTH WHERE THERE IS LESS ELEVATED CAPE. WHILE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A SIMILAR TREND...WAS ABLE TO
NUDGE TOWARDS THE 06Z RUNS...BETTER FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.

FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE MOISTURE TRAINING INTO
CONNECTICUT WILL TRACK. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THE WATER VAPOR DOES NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES...
SUGGESTING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
DAYTIME HEATING. YESTERDAY...STRATUS STAYED IN PLACE ACROSS ALMOST
THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE BREAKS ON THE FRINGES (AS OCCURRED
TUESDAY)...SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. NAM/GFS BUFKIT CONTINUE TO SHOW LONG-THIN
ELEVATED CAPES...SO WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA.

USE A BLEND OF NAM MOS AND YESTERDAY/S HIGHS FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS SEEMS (AND HAS BEEN) TOO WARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SEEMS THE SURFACE TROF
ITSELF. HERE...FEEL MODELS DO A FAIRLY GOOD JOB KEYING IN ON
THIS...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
LIFTING ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT TO RUN FROM .25 TO .50...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FEATURE WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH POPS FOLLOWING THAT
TREND. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN...IS TO THE
WEST TONIGHT.

EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN THICKEN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN VARY LITTLE...STRUGGLING TO DROP AT ALL
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES ARE COMING TO THE 500MB PATTERN...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY
SOMEWHAT AS TO EXACTLY HOW THOSE CHANGES PAN OUT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME LEVEL OF IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR FRI/SAT...WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE 500MB CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF ALL THE MISERABLE WX DURING THIS
WEEK...BUT IT WILL FINALLY ON THE MOVE...AS TWO WAVES DIG INTO ITS
TROUGH...AND BEGIN TO SHIFT IT EAST ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. FIRST
WAVE ACTUALLY ROTATES OUT OF BASE TROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...AND
THIS WILL SHIFT LOW-MID LVL FLOW TO THE SW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING AN END TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME CLEARING...EVEN ON THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND SUNSHINE AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY...AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. SOME DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT IN BEHIND THIS EAVE AS WELL...WHICH WILL HELP TO
MINIMIZE THE HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY...AS UPPER
LVL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH CLOSED LOW STILL JUST
OUR WEST. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN 500MB
LOW AND COLD CORE ALOFT MOVE OVER CWA ON SAT. HOWEVER...LOW-MID
FLOW BECOMES W...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS...WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A THREAT...BUT SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW. MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER
CHC FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS.

500MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE MARITIMES ON SUN...AND THE MTNS
WILL LKLY BE DEALING WITH SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
SCT SHRA. TO THE SOUTH IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH SCT CLOUDS. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO
NW...ZONAL...OR EVEN RIDGING BY MID-WEEK...DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE. STILL...ALL POINT TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FLOW
WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY ONSHORE FLOW
OTHER THAN SEA BREEZE. SO...WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME UNSETTLED
PERIODS...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AGAIN TREND TOWARDS PESSIMISTIC END OF
GUIDANCE...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AT CON-PSM-PWM-AUG. BREAKS AN/OR LIFTING ARE
POSSIBLE AT LEB. VSBY A BIT MORE TRICKY...WITH LOWEST VSBY ALONG
THE COAST...BUT IN GENERAL IT HAS BEEN VERY SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE
FEATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT VSBY TO RISE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH SOME VARIATIONS LIKELY.

AT CON-PWM-PSM-AUG FEEL THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING EMBEDDED IN CONVECTION...BUT THIS CHANCE FOR ANY
PARTICULAR SITE IS STILL RELATIVELY SMALL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST
AS CONFIDENCE IN UPSTREAM CONVECTION GROWS. LEB MAY SEE AN
AFTERNOON -TSRA...BUT AGAIN CHANCES TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VSBY TO DROP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF 1/4SM VSBY AT SEVERAL SITES. UNCERTAIN IN
TIMING...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO TAFS NOT QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC
HERE...BUT A 3 - 6 HR PERIOD OF 1/4SM VSBY IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH THAT FEATURE.

LONG TERM...ALL IN ALL EXPECTING IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON FRI...HOWEVER SCT TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE FRI AFT/EVE. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO HEADLINES...THOUGH DID NOTE ISLES OF SHOALS WAS
RUNNING ABOVE BOTH MOS AND MODEL DATA FOR ITS WINDS. THUS WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE NE FLOW...WHICH STILL KEEPS WINDS BELOW SCA.
SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OFF THE NH COAST...BUT KEEP SEAS SUB-SCA.

LONG TERM...SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT WILL LINGER INTO FRI...AND
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PROBABLY NOT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP UNTIL FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BY LOCATION...WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE CONCERN IS IF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS ON ONE AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS OF SUCH
BANDING ARE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. IF EXPECTATIONS
CHANGE...A FLOOD WATCH...AND/OR FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRESENT SIMILAR CONCERNS...THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST.

IN GENERAL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WOULD PUT
STREAMS AND SOME RIVER BASINS CLOSE TO BANKFULL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CEMPA
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KCAR 020917
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
517 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND REACH
MAINE THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF FOG...SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE FOG ADVISORY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT NORTH TO THE
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING AREA OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS ZONES 4 AND 5 WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY IN THE MOIST FLOW. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS. EXPECT CONVECTION TODAY TO BE DEPENDENT ON SUN
BREAKING THROUGH. SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDER OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

FOR FRIDAY...LOW PRES LIFTING UP THROUGH QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DECIDED ON A COMBO
OF THE SREF/GFS AND THE NAM12 FOR POPS WHICH PUTS THE HIGHEST POPS
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY FRIDAY AND
THE POPS WIND DOWN AS THE CWA GETS IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING TO SOME SB/MUCAPES OF 700-1000 J/KG W/CLOUD COVER
LIS DROP BACK TO -3 TO -4 ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. KIS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LAPSE RATES FROM
700-500MBS HIT ABV 6.0 C/KM. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO GO W/SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHEAR IS NOTED IN THE 0-6KM LAYER (15+ KTS). SOME
VEERING OF THE WINDS IS ALSO NOTED ESP IN THE LLVLS. ATTM...DECIDED
TO TO HOLD OFF ON ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL/WINDS) GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. SPC DOES HAVE THE NERN STATES IN A SEE TEXT FOR FRIDAY.
IF LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUN...THEN THE
ENHANCED WORDING MAY BE NEEDED. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS
FURTHER WITH NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE GMOS BASED
W/TEMPERATURES TWEAKED DOWN ESP ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON.

FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF TAKES THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW
AND BRINGS THEM OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EXCEPT THAT IT HAS LOWS FURTHER N. ANYWAY YOU SLICE
IT...ANOTHER WET DAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...DISTRIBUTION OF POPS WAS TO HAVE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS W/CHC CATEGORY FOR
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. DOWNPLAYED GMOS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLENDED THE ECMWF AND GMOS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNSETTLED FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRYING LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS MONDAY AND TO LOWER
THE VALUES TO 20%. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MORNING
ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA. GMOS TEMPERATURES WERE ACCEPTED W/LITTLE CHGS MADE.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD W/BOUTS OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. WIND SPEED A LITTLE HIGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MARINE LAYER SO WILL
LOWER WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS. FOR WAVES: HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS
WITH WNA/4. WAVE MODEL DOING REASONABLE JOB WITH LONG PERIOD WAVE
LAST 24 HOURS. WAVE HEIGHT COMES UP TONIGHT. A LOOK AT SPECTRAL
SUGGEST THIS THE RESULT OF WIND WAVE GROUP AND THIS APPEARS TOO
HIGH SO WILL LOWER THIS LATER TONIGHT BY 1 FOOT. WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF FOG RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. CARRIED THE FOG INTO
SATURDAY ATTM. WINDS ARE A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS INTO SATURDAY
AND THE GFS/GMOS BLEND WAS USED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS MATCH CLOSE TO THE WNAWAVE W/ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER HEIGHTS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TOO HIGH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT

000
FXUS61 KCAR 020759
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
359 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND REACH
MAINE THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DRIFT NORTH TO THE
WEST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING AREA OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS ZONES 4 AND 5 WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY IN THE MOIST FLOW. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS. EXPECT CONVECTION TODAY TO BE DEPENDENT ON SUN
BREAKING THROUGH. SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDER OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS TERM WILL BE COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.

FOR FRIDAY...LOW PRES LIFTING UP THROUGH QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DECIDED ON A COMBO
OF THE SREF/GFS AND THE NAM12 FOR POPS WHICH PUTS THE HIGHEST POPS
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY FRIDAY AND
THE POPS WIND DOWN AS THE CWA GETS IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING TO SOME SB/MUCAPES OF 700-1000 J/KG W/CLOUD COVER
LIS DROP BACK TO -3 TO -4 ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. KIS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LAPSE RATES FROM
700-500MBS HIT ABV 6.0 C/KM. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO GO W/SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHEAR IS NOTED IN THE 0-6KM LAYER (15+ KTS). SOME
VEERING OF THE WINDS IS ALSO NOTED ESP IN THE LLVLS. ATTM...DECIDED
TO TO HOLD OFF ON ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL/WINDS) GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
OF AMPLE SUNSHINE. SPC DOES HAVE THE NERN STATES IN A SEE TEXT FOR FRIDAY.
IF LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUN...THEN THE
ENHANCED WORDING MAY BE NEEDED. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS
FURTHER WITH NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE GMOS BASED
W/TEMPERATURES TWEAKED DOWN ESP ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON.

FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST ECMWF TAKES THE SFC AND THE UPPER LOW
AND BRINGS THEM OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EXCEPT THAT IT HAS LOWS FURTHER N. ANYWAY YOU SLICE
IT...ANOTHER WET DAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...DISTRIBUTION OF POPS WAS TO HAVE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS W/CHC CATEGORY FOR
DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. DOWNPLAYED GMOS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BLENDED THE ECMWF AND GMOS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNSETTLED FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRYING LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS MONDAY AND TO LOWER
THE VALUES TO 20%. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MORNING
ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA. GMOS TEMPERATURES WERE ACCEPTED W/LITTLE CHGS MADE.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD W/BOUTS OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM12
AND THE GFS40. WIND SPEED A LITTLE HIGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MARINE LAYER SO WILL
LOWER WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS. FOR WAVES: HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS
WITH WNA/4. WAVE MODEL DOING REASONABLE JOB WITH LONG PERIOD WAVE
LAST 24 HOURS. WAVE HEIGHT COMES UP TONIGHT. A LOOK AT SPECTRAL
SUGGEST THIS THE RESULT OF WIND WAVE GROUP AND THIS APPEARS TOO
HIGH SO WILL LOWER THIS LATER TONIGHT BY 1 FOOT. WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF FOG RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. CARRIED THE FOG INTO
SATURDAY ATTM. WINDS ARE A BLEND OF THE NAM12/GFS INTO SATURDAY
AND THE GFS/GMOS BLEND WAS USED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS MATCH CLOSE TO THE WNAWAVE W/ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER HEIGHTS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TOO HIGH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
     029-030.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT

000
FXUS61 KGYX 020759
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
359 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MARKING A RETURN TO COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST.
THIS COMBINED WITH ELEVATED CAPE IS THE LIKELY SPARK FOR
CONVECTION THERE. THE GFS SHOWS BEST LI/S OF AROUND -3. DO NOT
FEEL THE NAM OR GFS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...THOUGH THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME OMEGA IN THE GENERAL
LOCATION. THE REGIONAL GEM MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE...LINING UP
RATHER WELL WITH 06Z OBS.

AT ANY RATE...FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS...EVENTUALLY BLENDING TOWARDS A WEIGHTED MODEL
CONSENSUS. FEEL THE SHORTWAVE PASS THIS MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THEN. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST...FROM CON-AUG
SOUTHWARD. THIS IS IN LINE WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS QPF...AND FOLLOWS
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF NEW JERSEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. KEEP IN MIND...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.30 INCHES...ANY STALLED SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK
INCH...REGARDLESS OF POPS.

THE WATER VAPOR DOES NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES...
SUGGESTING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE LIMITED TO DAYTIME
HEATING. YESTERDAY...STRATUS STAYED IN PLACE ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...COULD
SEE BREAKS ON THE FRINGES (AS OCCURRED TUESDAY)...SO WILL INCLUDE
A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
NAM/GFS BUFKIT CONTINUE TO SHOW LONG-THIN ELEVATED CAPES...SO WILL
HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

USE A BLEND OF NAM MOS AND YESTERDAY/S HIGHS FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GFS SEEMS (AND HAS BEEN) TOO WARM.

SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE ON FLOODING POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SEEMS THE SURFACE TROF
ITSELF. HERE...FEEL MODELS DO A FAIRLY GOOD JOB KEYING IN ON
THIS...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
LIFTING ACROSS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT TO RUN FROM .25 TO .50...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FEATURE WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH POPS FOLLOWING THAT
TREND. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN...IS TO THE
WEST TONIGHT.

EXPECT FOG TO ONCE AGAIN THICKEN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN VARY LITTLE...STRUGGLING TO DROP AT ALL
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHANGES ARE COMING TO THE 500MB PATTERN...AND ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY
SOMEWHAT AS TO EXACTLY HOW THOSE CHANGES PAN OUT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME LEVEL OF IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR FRI/SAT...WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE 500MB CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF ALL THE MISERABLE WX DURING THIS
WEEK...BUT IT WILL FINALLY ON THE MOVE...AS TWO WAVES DIG INTO ITS
TROUGH...AND BEGIN TO SHIFT IT EAST ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. FIRST
WAVE ACTUALLY ROTATES OUT OF BASE TROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...AND
THIS WILL SHIFT LOW-MID LVL FLOW TO THE SW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING AN END TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME CLEARING...EVEN ON THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND SUNSHINE AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY...AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. SOME DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT IN BEHIND THIS EAVE AS WELL...WHICH WILL HELP TO
MINIMIZE THE HEAVY RAIN SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY...AS UPPER
LVL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH CLOSED LOW STILL JUST
OUR WEST. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN 500MB
LOW AND COLD CORE ALOFT MOVE OVER CWA ON SAT. HOWEVER...LOW-MID
FLOW BECOMES W...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN DOWNSLOPE
AREAS...WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A THREAT...BUT SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW. MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER
CHC FOR SHRA IN THE MTNS.

500MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER THE MARITIMES ON SUN...AND THE MTNS
WILL LKLY BE DEALING WITH SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
SCT SHRA. TO THE SOUTH IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH SCT CLOUDS. DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE FLOW LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO
NW...ZONAL...OR EVEN RIDGING BY MID-WEEK...DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL YOU CHOOSE. STILL...ALL POINT TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FLOW
WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY ONSHORE FLOW
OTHER THAN SEA BREEZE. SO...WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME UNSETTLED
PERIODS...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AGAIN TREND TOWARDS PESSIMISTIC END OF
GUIDANCE...WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT AT CON-PSM-PWM-AUG. BREAKS AN/OR LIFTING ARE
POSSIBLE AT LEB. VSBY A BIT MORE TRICKY...WITH LOWEST VSBY ALONG
THE COAST...BUT IN GENERAL IT HAS BEEN VERY SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE
FEATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT VSBY TO RISE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH SOME VARIATIONS LIKELY.

AT CON-PWM-PSM-AUG FEEL THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING EMBEDDED IN CONVECTION...BUT THIS CHANCE FOR ANY
PARTICULAR SITE IS STILL RELATIVELY SMALL. WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST
AS CONFIDENCE IN UPSTREAM CONVECTION GROWS. LEB MAY SEE AN
AFTERNOON -TSRA...BUT AGAIN CHANCES TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT VSBY TO DROP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF 1/4SM VSBY AT SEVERAL SITES. UNCERTAIN IN
TIMING...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...SO TAFS NOT QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC
HERE...BUT A 3 - 6 HR PERIOD OF 1/4SM VSBY IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH THAT FEATURE.

LONG TERM...ALL IN ALL EXPECTING IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON FRI...HOWEVER SCT TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE FRI AFT/EVE. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO HEADLINES...THOUGH DID NOTE ISLES OF SHOALS WAS
RUNNING ABOVE BOTH MOS AND MODEL DATA FOR ITS WINDS. THUS WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE NE FLOW...WHICH STILL KEEPS WINDS BELOW SCA.
SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OFF THE NH COAST...BUT KEEP SEAS SUB-SCA.

LONG TERM...SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT WILL LINGER INTO FRI...AND
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL PROBABLY NOT TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP UNTIL FRI
AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY BY LOCATION...WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY ARE NEAR THE COAST. THE
CONCERN IS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS ON ONE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...AREAS OF SUCH BANDING ARE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...HOWEVER DO EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CLOSE TO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. IF EXPECTATIONS CHANGE...A
FLOOD WATCH...AND/OR FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRESENT SIMILAR CONCERNS...THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST.

IN GENERAL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES WOULD PUT
STREAMS AND SOME RIVER BASINS CLOSE TO BANKFULL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CEMPA
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL

000
FXUS61 KGYX 020231
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1031 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MARKING A RETURN TO COOLER AND
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE
PATCHY DENSE FOG AS WELL WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY BELOW A HALF A
MILE ALONG AND NEAR THE COASTLINE. PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN THE PORTLAND AREA AS WELL...SO WILL PLACE THAT IN THE
GRIDS FOR SOUTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR PCPN UPSTREAM. EVERYTHING IS VERY
SATURATED AT THE MOMENT AND TWO NEW INCHES OF RAIN MAY PUSH SMALL
RIVERS IN STREAMS INTO FLOOD IF THIS OCCURS ON THURSDAY. FLOOD
WATCHES WILL BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
DURING THE DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND UPPER LOW DRIFTS
SLOWLY EAST. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLOODING WHICH WILL DEPEND ON
RAINFALL INTENSITY ALONG AXIS AND FORWARD PROGRESSION OF BOUNDARY.
SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCH RANGE APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE.

GFS MOS TEMPS SEEM TOO HIGH...SO WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW MET
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...IT WOULD APPEAR SOME SHORT
TERM RELIEF WILL OCCUR THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND COUPLED
WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER...IT`S QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER
TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
OUTSIDE OF A SHORT BREAK THE COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST ON
SATURDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE FLOW PROVIDING A
SEASONABLE DAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...A LINGERING TROUGH AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...IFR POSSIBLE THU NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR IN
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
SCA...HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

LONG TERM...WIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA VALUES. SEAS MAY
APPROACH SCA VALUES FRIDAY. SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING AS WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$