000
FXUS63 KAPX 041738
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
138 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW
FOR A FANTASTIC FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY KICK OFF A SCATTERED SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
WILL ONCE AGAIN FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1130 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS TO START THE
FOURTH OF JULY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND DECAYING STORM COMPLEX
PASSING BY JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH SOME OF IT/S ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER JUST SKIRTING THE FAR SRN COUNTIES. MAY SEE SCT-BKN
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE RUNNING QUITE A BIT
HIGHER THAN NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT
OVERALL SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

RIDGE-WEST/TROF-EAST PATTERN WILL REAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
EVEN AS THE PATTERN REMAINS SLOOOOOWLY PROGRESSIVE. DEEP NW-ERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE REAL QUESTIONS CONCERN
WHETHER AND WHEN THE TROF GETS REINFORCED FROM NW CANADA.
PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

MODELS...ARE TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE CLIPPER PASSING JUST
TO OUR NE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM BOTH HAVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSED
OFF...WITH THE GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ONLY
JUST TRICKLING IN...IT APPEARS A BIT FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS. SOMETHING IN THE GFS/ECMWF NEIGHBORHOOD SHOULD WORK OUT.

TONIGHT...QUIET. BIG CIRRUS SHIELD TO OUR W/SW WILL GET SHUNTED
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING CLIPPER FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS COULD REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL NOT
GET IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH MINS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
50 IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH AS COOL AS THE LOWER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST
INLAND LOCALES.

SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN ONTARIO...AHEAD OF
THE AMPLIFYING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING...AND SLOW IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI
IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
FEATURE...WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL BE JUST APPROACHING
EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING. EARLIER FORECAST
HAD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PLAN.

ALSO A CONCERN IS WHETHER WE MIGHT BE TO COOK OFF A SHOWER FURTHER
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SKINNY FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON SEEMINGLY REASONABLE
SURFACE DEW POINTS OF AROUND 50. WE HAVE THE FRONT AS A TRIGGER
(THOUGH IT/S STALLING)...AND THE INEVITABLE LAKE BREEZES AND GENERAL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE PENINSULA. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI COAST...ESPECIALLY IN
A BAND FROM KALKASKA TO GAYLORD TO ROGERS CITY. GIVEN THE CAPE IS
STILL PRETTY SMALL I WILL NOT INTRODUCE A POP AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 NORTH...MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER CARRIES ON INTO FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...
GIVING THE FRONT A NICE SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS WRAPPED RATHER TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW...RESTRICTING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS PLN
AND APN...AND WILL LEAVE A RESIDUAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE ST MARYS VALLEY. A BIT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES
ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER FROM THE NW. THIS
ONE COULD RETURN LAYERED CLOUDS TO UPPER MI...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP.

RATHER NARROW COLD PUNCH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MODELS DIFFER AS TO
HOW HARD WE FEEL THAT PUNCH. THE GFS OFFERS JUST A GLANCING BLOW...
AND MAX TEMPS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN
DEFERENCE TO THE OLD ECMWF...WILL ONLY TWEAK MAX TEMPS UPWARD...
RANGING MAINLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...GFS HAS DECIDED TO KICK THE NEXT CLIPPER INTO
A HIGHER GEAR AS WELL. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS NOT ALONG FOR THE
RIDE. IN ADDITION...THIS 2ND WAVE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE-STARVED THAN
THE 1ST. THAT SHOULD BE THE LAST REINFORCING SHOT...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF. UPPER PATTERN FINALLY WORKS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FORECAST...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WED/WED NIGHT
FOR PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

JZ

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS THRU SUNDAY.
LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING IN SOMEWHAT GUSTIER NW WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
THOUGH AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 138 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

AFTER DIURNAL CU DISSIPATE...VFR CLR THRU 06Z/5. THEN MID-LEVEL VFR
CIGS ARRIVE AROUND DAWN...AHEAD OF SHRTWV TROF AND VERY WEAK LOW
PRES/COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE DUE TO MODEL DISPARITY. BASED
ON CURRENT CONDS WITH THIS TROF...CURRENTLY OVR MANITOBA AND N
DAKOTA...WENT BETWEEN GFS AND NAM MODEL EXTREMES. THE PAST FOUR RUNS
OF THE NAM SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MID-LEVEL
GENERATED PRECIP 12-18Z...AND THIS IS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED SOME LGT
PRECIP OVR MANITOBA. SO -SHRA HAS BEEN ADDED TO TVC/PLN.

JH

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 041722
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(1241 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS LATER
TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1241 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
AREA OF MID  LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE EXPANDED THE ISOLATED POPS TO THE NORTH BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN MODEL AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER.

ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD MEAN WARMER MAXES UP NORTH WHILE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWERS 70S.

REST OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BY TONIGHT THE SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ESE INTO KY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING NOSES
IN.  IT SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR FIREWORKS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.  SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
LATE AS DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S.

NEXT ISSUE WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST COMES LATE IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.  AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY POOLS NEAR THE
FRONT AND A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH MAX TEMPS FROM 75 TO 80.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.  IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  THE MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY.  WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVER DEVELOPING A WAVE LOCATED AT THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.  I PREFER THE HIGH RES EURO WHICH SUPPORTS
BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND DRY WEATHER FOR WED.  RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

CIGS ARE VFR ACROSS ALL OF THE SIX TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VSBYS AROUND 10SM. MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE
AREA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS. THESE WILL REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. THE CLEARING SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 50S WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. MODEL MOS NUMBERS SHOW VERY
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG...BUT INSTINCT IS THERE WILL BE SOME
AROUND WITHOUT ANY STRONG DRY ADVECTION. WE DID NOT ADD IT TO KLAN
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BEST TIME FRAME FOR FOG
LOOKS BETWEEN 09-13Z. WE FEEL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THE WAY TO GO FOR
NOW...HOWEVER SOME IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND 13Z SUN AND LIMITED CLOUDS AND WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...(1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
WAVES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
NO WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK OSTUNO
SHORT TERM:   JK OSTUNO
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     NJJ
MARINE:       OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:    OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KMQT 041722 AAD
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
121 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW LOWS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA
CAUSING A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOWS OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC AND OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CYCLONIC FLOW
AHEAD OF THE KANSAS LOW CONTINUES TO DRAW MOIST AIR INTO ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ONTARIO MOVING SOUTHWEST. A LARGE HIGH DOMINATES THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SEPARATING
THE ONTARIO FRONT FROM THE KANSAS LOW KEEPING DRY AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC SILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. THE ONTARIO FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIP INTO
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY.
HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING AROUND 6K
FEET AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 300MB, THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR TODAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE BREEZES. THUS WILL LOWER
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND TEMPS TNGT WITH DRY HI
PRES TO LINGER. FOCUS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHIFTS TO TIMING/PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN AND OTHER DISTURBANCES FCST TO MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALF
ARND PERSISTENT TROFFING IN SE CAN.

TNGT...SHRTWV NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER LK SUP.
BOTH NAM/GFS GENERATE NO PCPN OVER UPR MI DESPITE SOME DPVA/MODEST
MOISTENING IN THE H85-7 LYR WITH RETURN WSW FLOW/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC
AS FCST SDNGS SHOW LLVLS REMAINING PROHIBITIVELY DRY. CONSIDERING
THE ABSENCE OF DIURNAL HTG...WL RETAIN GOING DRY FCST. BOTH MODELS
SHOW MOST IMPRESSIVE MID LVL MOISTENING OVER THE NRN TIER CLOSER TO
TRACK OF DISTURBANCE...SO EXPECT MORE CLD COVER THERE. PLAN ON
LOWEST MINS OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL WHERE MID CLD WL BE LESS.

ON SUN...SHRTWV TRACKING THRU LK SUP IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN UPR TROF
OVER ONTARIO. COOLER AIR IS FCST TO SPILL INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN ZNS WHERE GFS/NAM SHOW H85 TEMP OF 7C AT ERY
BY 00Z MON. THE W IS FCST TO BE JUST GLANCED BY THIS COOL SHOT WITH
H85 TEMP AT IWD 11C AT THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMPLETELY DRY...NAM GENERATES SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE SCNTRL AND E
INLAND FM LK SUP STABILIZATION MODERATION...WHERE MODEL FCST SDNG
FOR ISQ AT 18Z SHOWS SFC-H875 ML CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS ALSO HAS SOME MSTR IN THE H8-7 LYR...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE APPEARS
TO BE HIER H6 TEMP VS THE NAM...-7C GFS VS -9C NAM. CONSIDERING THE
PERSISTENT ERN TROF AND RATHER VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF SHRTWV NOW
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...THE LOWER H6 TEMP SEEMS MOST RSNBL. SINCE
PREVIOUS FCST HAD SCHC POPS DURING PD OF DAYTIME HTG...WL RETAIN
THESE LO POPS OVER THE E HALF OF THE FA INLAND FM LK SUP. OVER THE
W...EVEN THE NAM SHOWS A HI ENUF H6 TEMP/LESS IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES
TO STUNT SHRA DVLPMNT.

OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT SUN NGT TO 40 OVER THE E AS GFS/NAM SHOW
DEEPER MSTR ON WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO TO THE E IMPACTING AREAS
MAINLY E OF MQT-ESC. THE CONTRAST IN FCST SDNGS TO THE W HOWEVER IS
QUITE STRIKING IN TERMS OF MSTR AND STABILITY WITH NAM  SHOWING PWAT
RANGING FM 1.00 INCH AT ERY TO 0.46 INCH AT IWD AT 06Z MON. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS AT ERY ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER THAN OVER THE W...FVRBL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SUG THE LOWER MIN TEMPS WL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR W.

NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH FAST NW FLOW ALF...NAM AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER
ON MON CONCERNING STRENGTH AND IMPACT OF ANOTHER SHRTWV THAT IS FCST
TO DIVE SEWD IN NW FLOW ALF TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS. THE GFS DEPICTS
A SOMEWHAT SHARPER SHRTWV THAT DIGS FARTHER W AND GENERATES SOME LGT
PCPN OVER THE W HALF OF UPR MI. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES DOMINATING UPR MI ON MON IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN CHCS ON SUN NGT THAT WL BE
SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE E ON MON. SINCE THE 00Z UKMET/CNDN MODELS
SHOW A SCENARIO MORE SIMILAR TO THE NAM FCST...WL TEND IN THIS
DIRECTION. SO AFT SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF IN SE ONTARIO...WL GO DRY IN THE AFTN.

ONLY CHG MADE BEYOND MON NGT WAS TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS LATE TUE NGT
AND WED OVER THE W AS GFS MODEL IS FASTER BRINGING A RETURN OF WAD
PCPN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. BUT 0Z GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITH DEEP LO PRES IT DRIVES TOWARD UPR MI...SO WAS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE PUSHING POPS EWD AS FAST AS THAT EXPLICIT MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUG.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING AT
KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN WIND
SPEEDS OF UP TO 10 KNOTS AT KSAW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 05Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER...DUE TO DRYNESS
AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST MID WEEK. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS ARE TO REMAIN AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES CALM TO THREE FEET.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...DLG
MARINE...RJT

000
FXUS63 KDTX 041654
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1254 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009


.AVIATION...

THE LOWER CLOUDS (AROUND 5000 FEET) AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUAL END/DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...CLEARING
ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WITH JUST SOME
SCT LOW/MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1041 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

UPDATE...

NICE LITTLE MOISTURE GRADIENT/BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH MID 40 DEW POINTS NOTED OVER THE THUMB
REGION...WITH UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD K-ZOO. 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 67 DEGREES...AND SURE
ENOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR THE CAPITOL...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THUS ADDED ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION TO MUCH OF THE
SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA INTO THE EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDWEST SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADVANCES EAST. DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...UP TO ABOUT
GREEN BAY. 12Z NAM SHOWING THE NARROW 850-700 MB THETA-E AXIS
EXPANDING OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCAL
BULLEYE`S/MOISTURE POOLING NOTED. 12Z LOCAL HIGH RES MODEL ALSO
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS
SAGINAW COUNTY. LEFT THE MAXES AS IS (LOW/MID 70S)...BUT WE STILL
NEED TO GO UP A GOOD TEN DEGREES WHICH WILL BIT A BIT CHALLENGING
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AROUND IN THE SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY

AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN 00Z MODELS
ARE FORECASTING. WITH A CONSISTENT TREND OF A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT REMOVING SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL DO
SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS ALONG H5 TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF DETROIT NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO
THE SAGINAW VALLEY. GIVEN DECIDED LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
THE AREA...AND GENERAL LACK OF SUPPORT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE SO FAR TO
THE SOUTH...DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY SHOWERS TO THIS PORTION OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ACTIVITY WOULD
BE RATHER ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST AREAS...ONLY STALLING IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY HAMPER WARMING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SO
EXPECT A RELATIVELY SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...JUST THE DEPARTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING AS SE MI WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  ON SUNDAY WILL BE WAITING
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST LAKES
REGION TO INTENSIFY A NEWLY DEVELOPED 500 MB LOW. MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE TOO
RICH WITH SURFACE MOISTURE WHICH GIVES CAPES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG.  MODIFYING SOUNDINGS WITH MID 70S TEMPS AND
MID 50S DEW POINTS ARE MORE LIKE 500-1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE. SO WITH THAT INSTABILITY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 21Z TO 03Z. THOSE MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PARCELS GETTING TO THE EQL AND THUS TO -20C
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. MOS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND WILL NOT STRAY FROM THAT.

FROM THERE THERE IS MODEL DIVERGENCE...WITH THE GFS BY FAR THE MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.  CANADIAN...UKMET AND
NAM ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FLATTER WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THE SUNDAY NIGHT 500 MB LOW IS SLOWER MOVING...AND SLOW
ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE MONDAYS WEATHER. SE MI WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
GOOD 925 MB TO 850 MB MOISTURE...AND THERE IS GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW
700 MBS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
MONDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND COOLER TEMPS THAN ON SUNDAY.  SHOULD BE A GOOD GRADIENT
FROM BAX TO ADG. BAX LIKELY WILL BE BKN-OVC ALL DAY WITH 850 TEMPS
OF +6 TO +8...WHILE ADG WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH 850
TEMPS OF +10 TO +12C.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY TEMPS...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW SINCE THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST
WEST/SLOWEST TO HAVE THE 500 MB LOW MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
LAKES.

NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED AS HEIGHTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BUILD. AS
THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS IN THE MID WEEK...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND THEN
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ATTM...WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A
BIT CLOSE ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON...AND BRINGS A 6-10 HOUR WINDOW
OF HIGHER WINDS...AND ALSO WAVES...AS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SPILLS BACK OVER THE LAKE WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
UPDATE.......SF
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....RBP
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 041650
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

LATEST UPDATE...HYDRO/MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...(1241 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS LATER
TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1241 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
AREA OF MID  LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE EXPANDED THE ISOLATED POPS TO THE NORTH BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN MODEL AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER.

ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD MEAN WARMER MAXES UP NORTH WHILE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWERS 70S.

REST OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BY TONIGHT THE SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ESE INTO KY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING NOSES
IN.  IT SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR FIREWORKS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.  SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
LATE AS DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S.

NEXT ISSUE WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST COMES LATE IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.  AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY POOLS NEAR THE
FRONT AND A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH MAX TEMPS FROM 75 TO 80.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.  IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  THE MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY.  WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVER DEVELOPING A WAVE LOCATED AT THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.  I PREFER THE HIGH RES EURO WHICH SUPPORTS
BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND DRY WEATHER FOR WED.  RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(540 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TAF SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE DAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  COULD POP UP.  WINDS OF UNDER 20
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  A BIGGER HAZARD MAY BE THE FOG
TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.



&&

.MARINE...(1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
WAVES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
NO WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK OSTUNO
SHORT TERM:   JK OSTUNO
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     MJS
MARINE:       OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:    OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KGRR 041641
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1241 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

LATEST UPDATE...SYNOPSIS...SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(1241 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS LATER
TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING BUT MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1238 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
AREA OF MID  LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE EXPANDED THE ISOLATED POPS TO THE NORTH BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. LIMITED INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN MODEL AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANT THUNDER.

ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO
CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD MEAN WARMER MAXES UP NORTH WHILE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWERS 70S.

REST OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BY TONIGHT THE SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ESE INTO KY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING NOSES
IN.  IT SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR FIREWORKS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.  SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
LATE AS DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S.

NEXT ISSUE WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST COMES LATE IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.  AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY POOLS NEAR THE
FRONT AND A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH MAX TEMPS FROM 75 TO 80.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.  IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  THE MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY.  WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVER DEVELOPING A WAVE LOCATED AT THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.  I PREFER THE HIGH RES EURO WHICH SUPPORTS
BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND DRY WEATHER FOR WED.  RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(540 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TAF SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE DAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  COULD POP UP.  WINDS OF UNDER 20
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  A BIGGER HAZARD MAY BE THE FOG
TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.



&&

.MARINE...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF WHITEHALL AND AGAIN TOWARD EVENING
ON SUNDAY ACROSS ALL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS.  PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK OSTUNO
SHORT TERM:   JK OSTUNO
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     MJS
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KAPX 041530
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW
FOR A FANTASTIC FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY KICK OFF A SCATTERED SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
WILL ONCE AGAIN FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1130 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS TO START THE
FOURTH OF JULY. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND DECAYING STORM COMPLEX
PASSING BY JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH SOME OF IT/S ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER JUST SKIRTING THE FAR SRN COUNTIES. MAY SEE SCT-BKN
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE RUNNING QUITE A BIT
HIGHER THAN NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT
OVERALL SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

RIDGE-WEST/TROF-EAST PATTERN WILL REAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
EVEN AS THE PATTERN REMAINS SLOOOOOWLY PROGRESSIVE. DEEP NW-ERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE REAL QUESTIONS CONCERN
WHETHER AND WHEN THE TROF GETS REINFORCED FROM NW CANADA.
PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

MODELS...ARE TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE CLIPPER PASSING JUST
TO OUR NE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM BOTH HAVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSED
OFF...WITH THE GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ONLY
JUST TRICKLING IN...IT APPEARS A BIT FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS. SOMETHING IN THE GFS/ECMWF NEIGHBORHOOD SHOULD WORK OUT.

TONIGHT...QUIET. BIG CIRRUS SHIELD TO OUR W/SW WILL GET SHUNTED
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING CLIPPER FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS COULD REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL NOT
GET IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH MINS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
50 IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH AS COOL AS THE LOWER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST
INLAND LOCALES.

SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN ONTARIO...AHEAD OF
THE AMPLIFYING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING...AND SLOW IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI
IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
FEATURE...WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL BE JUST APPROACHING
EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING. EARLIER FORECAST
HAD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PLAN.

ALSO A CONCERN IS WHETHER WE MIGHT BE TO COOK OFF A SHOWER FURTHER
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SKINNY FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON SEEMINGLY REASONABLE
SURFACE DEW POINTS OF AROUND 50. WE HAVE THE FRONT AS A TRIGGER
(THOUGH IT/S STALLING)...AND THE INEVITABLE LAKE BREEZES AND GENERAL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE PENINSULA. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI COAST...ESPECIALLY IN
A BAND FROM KALKASKA TO GAYLORD TO ROGERS CITY. GIVEN THE CAPE IS
STILL PRETTY SMALL I WILL NOT INTRODUCE A POP AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 NORTH...MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER CARRIES ON INTO FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...
GIVING THE FRONT A NICE SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS WRAPPED RATHER TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW...RESTRICTING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS PLN
AND APN...AND WILL LEAVE A RESIDUAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE ST MARYS VALLEY. A BIT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES
ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER FROM THE NW. THIS
ONE COULD RETURN LAYERED CLOUDS TO UPPER MI...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP.

RATHER NARROW COLD PUNCH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MODELS DIFFER AS TO
HOW HARD WE FEEL THAT PUNCH. THE GFS OFFERS JUST A GLANCING BLOW...
AND MAX TEMPS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN
DEFERENCE TO THE OLD ECMWF...WILL ONLY TWEAK MAX TEMPS UPWARD...
RANGING MAINLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...GFS HAS DECIDED TO KICK THE NEXT CLIPPER INTO
A HIGHER GEAR AS WELL. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS NOT ALONG FOR THE
RIDE. IN ADDITION...THIS 2ND WAVE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE-STARVED THAN
THE 1ST. THAT SHOULD BE THE LAST REINFORCING SHOT...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF. UPPER PATTERN FINALLY WORKS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FORECAST...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WED/WED NIGHT
FOR PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

JZ

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS THRU SUNDAY.
LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING IN SOMEWHAT GUSTIER NW WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
THOUGH AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 718 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE
24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 041441
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1041 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE...

NICE LITTLE MOISTURE GRADIENT/BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH MID 40 DEW POINTS NOTED OVER THE THUMB
REGION...WITH UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD K-ZOO. 12Z DTX
SOUNDING INDICATED A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 67 DEGREES...AND SURE
ENOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR THE CAPITOL...TRACKING
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THUS ADDED ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION TO MUCH OF THE
SOUTH TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA INTO THE EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDWEST SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ADVANCES EAST. DECENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...UP TO ABOUT
GREEN BAY. 12Z NAM SHOWING THE NARROW 850-700 MB THETA-E AXIS
EXPANDING OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCAL
BULLEYE`S/MOISTURE POOLING NOTED. 12Z LOCAL HIGH RES MODEL ALSO
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS
SAGINAW COUNTY. LEFT THE MAXES AS IS (LOW/MID 70S)...BUT WE STILL
NEED TO GO UP A GOOD TEN DEGREES WHICH WILL BIT A BIT CHALLENGING
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AROUND IN THE SOUTH.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 711 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...DO
EXPECT LOWER VFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AT TIMES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AS A AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SIMILAR SCT TO
BKN STRATO-CU/CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN ITS WAKE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY

AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN 00Z MODELS
ARE FORECASTING. WITH A CONSISTENT TREND OF A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT REMOVING SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL DO
SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS ALONG H5 TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF DETROIT NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO
THE SAGINAW VALLEY. GIVEN DECIDED LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
THE AREA...AND GENERAL LACK OF SUPPORT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE SO FAR TO
THE SOUTH...DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY SHOWERS TO THIS PORTION OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ACTIVITY WOULD
BE RATHER ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST AREAS...ONLY STALLING IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY HAMPER WARMING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SO
EXPECT A RELATIVELY SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...JUST THE DEPARTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING AS SE MI WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  ON SUNDAY WILL BE WAITING
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST LAKES
REGION TO INTENSIFY A NEWLY DEVELOPED 500 MB LOW. MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE TOO
RICH WITH SURFACE MOISTURE WHICH GIVES CAPES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG.  MODIFYING SOUNDINGS WITH MID 70S TEMPS AND
MID 50S DEW POINTS ARE MORE LIKE 500-1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE. SO WITH THAT INSTABILITY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 21Z TO 03Z. THOSE MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PARCELS GETTING TO THE EQL AND THUS TO -20C
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. MOS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND WILL NOT STRAY FROM THAT.

FROM THERE THERE IS MODEL DIVERGENCE...WITH THE GFS BY FAR THE MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.  CANADIAN...UKMET AND
NAM ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FLATTER WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THE SUNDAY NIGHT 500 MB LOW IS SLOWER MOVING...AND SLOW
ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE MONDAYS WEATHER. SE MI WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
GOOD 925 MB TO 850 MB MOISTURE...AND THERE IS GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW
700 MBS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
MONDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND COOLER TEMPS THAN ON SUNDAY.  SHOULD BE A GOOD GRADIENT
FROM BAX TO ADG. BAX LIKELY WILL BE BKN-OVC ALL DAY WITH 850 TEMPS
OF +6 TO +8...WHILE ADG WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH 850
TEMPS OF +10 TO +12C.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY TEMPS...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW SINCE THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST
WEST/SLOWEST TO HAVE THE 500 MB LOW MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
LAKES.

NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED AS HEIGHTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BUILD. AS
THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS IN THE MID WEEK...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND THEN
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ATTM...WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A
BIT CLOSE ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON...AND BRINGS A 6-10 HOUR WINDOW
OF HIGHER WINDS...AND ALSO WAVES...AS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SPILLS BACK OVER THE LAKE WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....RBP
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 041431 AAC
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW LOWS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA
CAUSING A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOWS OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC AND OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. CYCLONIC FLOW
AHEAD OF THE KANSAS LOW CONTINUES TO DRAW MOIST AIR INTO ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ONTARIO MOVING SOUTHWEST. A LARGE HIGH DOMINATES THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SEPARATING
THE ONTARIO FRONT FROM THE KANSAS LOW KEEPING DRY AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC SILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. THE ONTARIO FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIP INTO
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY.
HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE DRY CONDITONS...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING AROUND 6K
FEET AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 300MB, THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR TODAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LAKE BREEZES. THUS WILL LOWER
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND TEMPS TNGT WITH DRY HI
PRES TO LINGER. FOCUS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHIFTS TO TIMING/PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN AND OTHER DISTURBANCES FCST TO MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALF
ARND PERSISTENT TROFFING IN SE CAN.

TNGT...SHRTWV NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER LK SUP.
BOTH NAM/GFS GENERATE NO PCPN OVER UPR MI DESPITE SOME DPVA/MODEST
MOISTENING IN THE H85-7 LYR WITH RETURN WSW FLOW/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC
AS FCST SDNGS SHOW LLVLS REMAINING PROHIBITIVELY DRY. CONSIDERING
THE ABSENCE OF DIURNAL HTG...WL RETAIN GOING DRY FCST. BOTH MODELS
SHOW MOST IMPRESSIVE MID LVL MOISTENING OVER THE NRN TIER CLOSER TO
TRACK OF DISTURBANCE...SO EXPECT MORE CLD COVER THERE. PLAN ON
LOWEST MINS OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL WHERE MID CLD WL BE LESS.

ON SUN...SHRTWV TRACKING THRU LK SUP IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN UPR TROF
OVER ONTARIO. COOLER AIR IS FCST TO SPILL INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN ZNS WHERE GFS/NAM SHOW H85 TEMP OF 7C AT ERY
BY 00Z MON. THE W IS FCST TO BE JUST GLANCED BY THIS COOL SHOT WITH
H85 TEMP AT IWD 11C AT THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMPLETELY DRY...NAM GENERATES SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE SCNTRL AND E
INLAND FM LK SUP STABILIZATION MODERATION...WHERE MODEL FCST SDNG
FOR ISQ AT 18Z SHOWS SFC-H875 ML CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS ALSO HAS SOME MSTR IN THE H8-7 LYR...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE APPEARS
TO BE HIER H6 TEMP VS THE NAM...-7C GFS VS -9C NAM. CONSIDERING THE
PERSISTENT ERN TROF AND RATHER VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF SHRTWV NOW
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...THE LOWER H6 TEMP SEEMS MOST RSNBL. SINCE
PREVIOUS FCST HAD SCHC POPS DURING PD OF DAYTIME HTG...WL RETAIN
THESE LO POPS OVER THE E HALF OF THE FA INLAND FM LK SUP. OVER THE
W...EVEN THE NAM SHOWS A HI ENUF H6 TEMP/LESS IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES
TO STUNT SHRA DVLPMNT.

OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT SUN NGT TO 40 OVER THE E AS GFS/NAM SHOW
DEEPER MSTR ON WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO TO THE E IMPACTING AREAS
MAINLY E OF MQT-ESC. THE CONTRAST IN FCST SDNGS TO THE W HOWEVER IS
QUITE STRIKING IN TERMS OF MSTR AND STABILITY WITH NAM  SHOWING PWAT
RANGING FM 1.00 INCH AT ERY TO 0.46 INCH AT IWD AT 06Z MON. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS AT ERY ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER THAN OVER THE W...FVRBL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SUG THE LOWER MIN TEMPS WL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR W.

NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH FAST NW FLOW ALF...NAM AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER
ON MON CONCERNING STRENGTH AND IMPACT OF ANOTHER SHRTWV THAT IS FCST
TO DIVE SEWD IN NW FLOW ALF TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS. THE GFS DEPICTS
A SOMEWHAT SHARPER SHRTWV THAT DIGS FARTHER W AND GENERATES SOME LGT
PCPN OVER THE W HALF OF UPR MI. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES DOMINATING UPR MI ON MON IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN CHCS ON SUN NGT THAT WL BE
SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE E ON MON. SINCE THE 00Z UKMET/CNDN MODELS
SHOW A SCENARIO MORE SIMILAR TO THE NAM FCST...WL TEND IN THIS
DIRECTION. SO AFT SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF IN SE ONTARIO...WL GO DRY IN THE AFTN.

ONLY CHG MADE BEYOND MON NGT WAS TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS LATE TUE NGT
AND WED OVER THE W AS GFS MODEL IS FASTER BRINGING A RETURN OF WAD
PCPN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. BUT 0Z GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITH DEEP LO PRES IT DRIVES TOWARD UPR MI...SO WAS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE PUSHING POPS EWD AS FAST AS THAT EXPLICIT MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUG.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING AT
KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS BY LATE MORNING RESULTING IN WIND
SPEEDS OF UP TO 10 KNOTS AT KSAW.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST MID WEEK. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS ARE TO REMAIN AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES CALM TO THREE FEET.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJT

000
FXUS63 KMQT 041120 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF BTWN
PERSISTENT TROF FM HUDSON BAY TO SE ONTARIO AND RDG OVER TX/DESERT
SW. THIS NW FLOW IS DRY AS 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.61 INCH/0.44 INCH RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SFC...HI
PRES EXTENDS FM SCNTRL CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE FA IS
DOMINATED BY A DRY FLOW...SOME HI CLD TO THE NE OF WARM FNT IN THE
NCNTRL PLAINS IS NOTED AS FAR N AS NRN MN/THE FA. NEXT SHRTWV OF
INTEREST IS OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND BRINGING SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO ERN
MONTANA/NW NDAKOTA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND TEMPS TDAY/TNGT WITH
DRY HI PRES TO LINGER. FOCUS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHIFTS TO TIMING/PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN AND OTHER DISTURBANCES FCST TO MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALF
ARND PERSISTENT TROFFING IN SE CAN.

FOR TDAY...EXPECT A FANTASTIC DAY FOR JUL 4TH CELEBRATIONS WITH HI
PRES/DRY AIRMASS LINGERING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HI CLDS ARND
THIS MRNG...THIS CLD SHOULD MOVE TO THE S IN THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY
TO JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU INLAND FM LK STABILIZATION. MIXING TO
H75 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 70S AWAY FM LK
MODERATION NEAR THE WI BORDER. WITH LGT NNE H925 FLOW...MODERATION
OFF LK SUP WL BE GREATEST.

TNGT...SHRTWV NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER LK SUP.
BOTH NAM/GFS GENERATE NO PCPN OVER UPR MI DESPITE SOME DPVA/MODEST
MOISTENING IN THE H85-7 LYR WITH RETURN WSW FLOW/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC
AS FCST SDNGS SHOW LLVLS REMAINING PROHIBITIVELY DRY. CONSIDERING
THE ABSENCE OF DIURNAL HTG...WL RETAIN GOING DRY FCST. BOTH MODELS
SHOW MOST IMPRESSIVE MID LVL MOISTENING OVER THE NRN TIER CLOSER TO
TRACK OF DISTURBANCE...SO EXPECT MORE CLD COVER THERE. PLAN ON
LOWEST MINS OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL WHERE MID CLD WL BE LESS.

ON SUN...SHRTWV TRACKING THRU LK SUP IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN UPR TROF
OVER ONTARIO. COOLER AIR IS FCST TO SPILL INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN ZNS WHERE GFS/NAM SHOW H85 TEMP OF 7C AT ERY
BY 00Z MON. THE W IS FCST TO BE JUST GLANCED BY THIS COOL SHOT WITH
H85 TEMP AT IWD 11C AT THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMPLETELY DRY...NAM GENERATES SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE SCNTRL AND E
INLAND FM LK SUP STABILIZATION MODERATION...WHERE MODEL FCST SDNG
FOR ISQ AT 18Z SHOWS SFC-H875 ML CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS ALSO HAS SOME MSTR IN THE H8-7 LYR...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE APPEARS
TO BE HIER H6 TEMP VS THE NAM...-7C GFS VS -9C NAM. CONSIDERING THE
PERSISTENT ERN TROF AND RATHER VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF SHRTWV NOW
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...THE LOWER H6 TEMP SEEMS MOST RSNBL. SINCE
PREVIOUS FCST HAD SCHC POPS DURING PD OF DAYTIME HTG...WL RETAIN
THESE LO POPS OVER THE E HALF OF THE FA INLAND FM LK SUP. OVER THE
W...EVEN THE NAM SHOWS A HI ENUF H6 TEMP/LESS IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES
TO STUNT SHRA DVLPMNT.

OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT SUN NGT TO 40 OVER THE E AS GFS/NAM SHOW
DEEPER MSTR ON WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO TO THE E IMPACTING AREAS
MAINLY E OF MQT-ESC. THE CONTRAST IN FCST SDNGS TO THE W HOWEVER IS
QUITE STRIKING IN TERMS OF MSTR AND STABILITY WITH NAM  SHOWING PWAT
RANGING FM 1.00 INCH AT ERY TO 0.46 INCH AT IWD AT 06Z MON. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS AT ERY ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER THAN OVER THE W...FVRBL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SUG THE LOWER MIN TEMPS WL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR W.

NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH FAST NW FLOW ALF...NAM AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER
ON MON CONCERNING STRENGTH AND IMPACT OF ANOTHER SHRTWV THAT IS FCST
TO DIVE SEWD IN NW FLOW ALF TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS. THE GFS DEPICTS
A SOMEWHAT SHARPER SHRTWV THAT DIGS FARTHER W AND GENERATES SOME LGT
PCPN OVER THE W HALF OF UPR MI. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES DOMINATING UPR MI ON MON IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN CHCS ON SUN NGT THAT WL BE
SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE E ON MON. SINCE THE 00Z UKMET/CNDN MODELS
SHOW A SCENARIO MORE SIMILAR TO THE NAM FCST...WL TEND IN THIS
DIRECTION. SO AFT SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF IN SE ONTARIO...WL GO DRY IN THE AFTN.

ONLY CHG MADE BEYOND MON NGT WAS TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS LATE TUE NGT
AND WED OVER THE W AS GFS MODEL IS FASTER BRINGING A RETURN OF WAD
PCPN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. BUT 0Z GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITH DEEP LO PRES IT DRIVES TOWARD UPR MI...SO WAS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE PUSHING POPS EWD AS FAST AS THAT EXPLICIT MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUG.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING AT
KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT...LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS BY LATE MORNING RESULTING IN WIND
SPEEDS OF UP TO 10 KNOTS AT KSAW.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST MID WEEK. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS ARE TO REMAIN AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES CALM TO THREE FEET.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJT

000
FXUS63 KAPX 041118
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
718 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW
FOR A FANTASTIC FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY KICK OFF A SCATTERED SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
WILL ONCE AGAIN FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/...TODAY

NO REASON TO MAKE THIS COMPLICATED...OR LENGTHY. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW HAS FINALLY EXITED EAST...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NOW TRYING
TO EDGE IN. IT NEVER QUITE GOES THRU...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT
NW-ERLY 1000-850MB FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE...
BUT SUNSHINE WILL AT LEAST BE REASONABLY ABUNDANT. THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS IN THE SW ZONES...ADVECTED IN FROM
MORE ACTIVE WX IN THE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70
(EASTERN UPPER) TO THE MID 70S (MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER). HAPPY 4TH!

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

RIDGE-WEST/TROF-EAST PATTERN WILL REAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
EVEN AS THE PATTERN REMAINS SLOOOOOWLY PROGRESSIVE. DEEP NW-ERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE REAL QUESTIONS CONCERN
WHETHER AND WHEN THE TROF GETS REINFORCED FROM NW CANADA.
PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

MODELS...ARE TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE CLIPPER PASSING JUST
TO OUR NE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM BOTH HAVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSED
OFF...WITH THE GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ONLY
JUST TRICKLING IN...IT APPEARS A BIT FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS. SOMETHING IN THE GFS/ECMWF NEIGHBORHOOD SHOULD WORK OUT.

TONIGHT...QUIET. BIG CIRRUS SHIELD TO OUR W/SW WILL GET SHUNTED
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING CLIPPER FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS COULD REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL NOT
GET IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH MINS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
50 IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH AS COOL AS THE LOWER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST
INLAND LOCALES.

SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN ONTARIO...AHEAD OF
THE AMPLIFYING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING...AND SLOW IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI
IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
FEATURE...WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL BE JUST APPROACHING
EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING. EARLIER FORECAST
HAD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PLAN.

ALSO A CONCERN IS WHETHER WE MIGHT BE TO COOK OFF A SHOWER FURTHER
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SKINNY FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON SEEMINGLY REASONABLE
SURFACE DEW POINTS OF AROUND 50. WE HAVE THE FRONT AS A TRIGGER
(THOUGH IT/S STALLING)...AND THE INEVITABLE LAKE BREEZES AND GENERAL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE PENINSULA. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI COAST...ESPECIALLY IN
A BAND FROM KALKASKA TO GAYLORD TO ROGERS CITY. GIVEN THE CAPE IS
STILL PRETTY SMALL I WILL NOT INTRODUCE A POP AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 NORTH...MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER CARRIES ON INTO FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...
GIVING THE FRONT A NICE SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS WRAPPED RATHER TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW...RESTRICTING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS PLN
AND APN...AND WILL LEAVE A RESIDUAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE ST MARYS VALLEY. A BIT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES
ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER FROM THE NW. THIS
ONE COULD RETURN LAYERED CLOUDS TO UPPER MI...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP.

RATHER NARROW COLD PUNCH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MODELS DIFFER AS TO
HOW HARD WE FEEL THAT PUNCH. THE GFS OFFERS JUST A GLANCING BLOW...
AND MAX TEMPS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN
DEFERENCE TO THE OLD ECMWF...WILL ONLY TWEAK MAX TEMPS UPWARD...
RANGING MAINLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...GFS HAS DECIDED TO KICK THE NEXT CLIPPER INTO
A HIGHER GEAR AS WELL. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS NOT ALONG FOR THE
RIDE. IN ADDITION...THIS 2ND WAVE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE-STARVED THAN
THE 1ST. THAT SHOULD BE THE LAST REINFORCING SHOT...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF. UPPER PATTERN FINALLY WORKS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FORECAST...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WED/WED NIGHT
FOR PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

JZ

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS THRU SUNDAY.
LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING IN SOMEWHAT GUSTIER NW WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
THOUGH AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 718 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE
24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 041111
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
711 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009


.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...DO
EXPECT LOWER VFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AT TIMES AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AS A AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SIMILAR SCT TO
BKN STRATO-CU/CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 302 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY

AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN 00Z MODELS
ARE FORECASTING. WITH A CONSISTENT TREND OF A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT REMOVING SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL DO
SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS ALONG H5 TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF DETROIT NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO
THE SAGINAW VALLEY. GIVEN DECIDED LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
THE AREA...AND GENERAL LACK OF SUPPORT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE SO FAR TO
THE SOUTH...DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY SHOWERS TO THIS PORTION OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ACTIVITY WOULD
BE RATHER ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST AREAS...ONLY STALLING IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY HAMPER WARMING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SO
EXPECT A RELATIVELY SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...JUST THE DEPARTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING AS SE MI WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  ON SUNDAY WILL BE WAITING
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST LAKES
REGION TO INTENSIFY A NEWLY DEVELOPED 500 MB LOW. MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE TOO
RICH WITH SURFACE MOISTURE WHICH GIVES CAPES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG.  MODIFYING SOUNDINGS WITH MID 70S TEMPS AND
MID 50S DEW POINTS ARE MORE LIKE 500-1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE. SO WITH THAT INSTABILITY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 21Z TO 03Z. THOSE MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PARCELS GETTING TO THE EQL AND THUS TO -20C
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. MOS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND WILL NOT STRAY FROM THAT.

FROM THERE THERE IS MODEL DIVERGENCE...WITH THE GFS BY FAR THE MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.  CANADIAN...UKMET AND
NAM ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FLATTER WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THE SUNDAY NIGHT 500 MB LOW IS SLOWER MOVING...AND SLOW
ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE MONDAYS WEATHER. SE MI WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
GOOD 925 MB TO 850 MB MOISTURE...AND THERE IS GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW
700 MBS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
MONDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND COOLER TEMPS THAN ON SUNDAY.  SHOULD BE A GOOD GRADIENT
FROM BAX TO ADG. BAX LIKELY WILL BE BKN-OVC ALL DAY WITH 850 TEMPS
OF +6 TO +8...WHILE ADG WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH 850
TEMPS OF +10 TO +12C.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY TEMPS...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW SINCE THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST
WEST/SLOWEST TO HAVE THE 500 MB LOW MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
LAKES.

NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED AS HEIGHTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BUILD. AS
THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS IN THE MID WEEK...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND THEN
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ATTM...WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A
BIT CLOSE ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON...AND BRINGS A 6-10 HOUR WINDOW
OF HIGHER WINDS...AND ALSO WAVES...AS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SPILLS BACK OVER THE LAKE WATERS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....RBP
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 040942
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
540 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS LATER
TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF MICHIGAN THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  THE WEATHER
WILL BE DRY FOR ANY FIREWORKS ACTIVITIES TONIGHT AS THE ILLINOIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING.  THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH THIS FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
BUT THIS ISN/T COMPLETELY WITHOUT ISSUE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KS WAS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS IA AND MO THIS MORNING.  THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...WE
WILL REALIZE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM SW OF A MKG TO JXN
LINE.  THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO THICKENING CLOUDS
THIS MORNING.  AS FOR SUNSHINE TODAY...THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD
BE PARTLY SUNNY MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ELSEWHERE.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD WORK SOUTH INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...REACHING TO NEAR I-96 BY EARLY EVENING.  TEMPS WILL BE
HELD TO THE LOW AND MID 70S DUE TO THE CLOUDS.  SOME OF THE WARMEST
READINGS SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER WITH MORE SUN.

BY TONIGHT THE SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ESE INTO KY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING NOSES
IN.  IT SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR FIREWORKS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.  SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
LATE AS DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S.

NEXT ISSUE WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST COMES LATE IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.  AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY POOLS NEAR THE
FRONT AND A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH MAX TEMPS FROM 75 TO 80.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.  IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  THE MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY.  WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVER DEVELOPING A WAVE LOCATED AT THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.  I PREFER THE HIGH RES EURO WHICH SUPPORTS
BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND DRY WEATHER FOR WED.  RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(540 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TAF SITES MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE DAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM  COULD POP UP.  WINDS OF UNDER 20
KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  A BIGGER HAZARD MAY BE THE FOG
TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.



&&

.MARINE...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF WHITEHALL AND AGAIN TOWARD EVENING
ON SUNDAY ACROSS ALL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS.  PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     MJS
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KGRR 040803
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS LATER
TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF MICHIGAN THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  THE WEATHER
WILL BE DRY FOR ANY FIREWORKS ACTIVITIES TONIGHT AS THE ILLINOIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY.

THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING.  THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH THIS FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
BUT THIS ISN/T COMPLETELY WITHOUT ISSUE.

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KS WAS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS IA AND MO THIS MORNING.  THE WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...WE
WILL REALIZE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM SW OF A MKG TO JXN
LINE.  THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO THICKENING CLOUDS
THIS MORNING.  AS FOR SUNSHINE TODAY...THE FAR NORTHERN CWA SHOULD
BE PARTLY SUNNY MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ELSEWHERE.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD WORK SOUTH INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...REACHING TO NEAR I-96 BY EARLY EVENING.  TEMPS WILL BE
HELD TO THE LOW AND MID 70S DUE TO THE CLOUDS.  SOME OF THE WARMEST
READINGS SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER WITH MORE SUN.

BY TONIGHT THE SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ESE INTO KY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING NOSES
IN.  IT SHOULD BE A NICE NIGHT FOR FIREWORKS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S.  SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
LATE AS DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S.

NEXT ISSUE WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST COMES LATE IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.  AN UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SE ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY POOLS NEAR THE
FRONT AND A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA.  HAVE INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN
IN A WHILE...WITH MAX TEMPS FROM 75 TO 80.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT.  IT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  THE MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY.  WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH A
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVER DEVELOPING A WAVE LOCATED AT THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.  I PREFER THE HIGH RES EURO WHICH SUPPORTS
BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND DRY WEATHER FOR WED.  RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(1140 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER THINKING EXPECT THAT I DROPPED THE VCSH.
LOOKING AT LOOPS BOTH THE RADAR MOSAIC AND IR IMAGES... IT CAN BE
SEEN THAT THE ECHOS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS KEEP DRYING UP ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST
WITH THE JET ENTRANCE REGION... I NOW BELIEVE MORE STRONGLY THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OF ANY PCPN ON OUR CWA SATURDAY FROM THIS SYSTEM
PASSING SOUTH OF HERE.  THERE IS TO MUCH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR... SO VFR
CIGS/VIS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF WHITEHALL AND AGAIN TOWARD EVENING
ON SUNDAY ACROSS ALL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS.  PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(403 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KMQT 040743
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF BTWN
PERSISTENT TROF FM HUDSON BAY TO SE ONTARIO AND RDG OVER TX/DESERT
SW. THIS NW FLOW IS DRY AS 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WITH PWAT 0.61 INCH/0.44 INCH RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SFC...HI
PRES EXTENDS FM SCNTRL CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH THE FA IS
DOMINATED BY A DRY FLOW...SOME HI CLD TO THE NE OF WARM FNT IN THE
NCNTRL PLAINS IS NOTED AS FAR N AS NRN MN/THE FA. NEXT SHRTWV OF
INTEREST IS OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND BRINGING SOME SHRA/TSRA INTO ERN
MONTANA/NW NDAKOTA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND TEMPS TDAY/TNGT WITH
DRY HI PRES TO LINGER. FOCUS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHIFTS TO TIMING/PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW IN
SASKATCHEWAN AND OTHER DISTURBANCES FCST TO MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALF
ARND PERSISTENT TROFFING IN SE CAN.

FOR TDAY...EXPECT A FANTASTIC DAY FOR JUL 4TH CELEBRATIONS WITH HI
PRES/DRY AIRMASS LINGERING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HI CLDS ARND
THIS MRNG...THIS CLD SHOULD MOVE TO THE S IN THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY
TO JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU INLAND FM LK STABILIZATION. MIXING TO
H75 ON NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 70S AWAY FM LK
MODERATION NEAR THE WI BORDER. WITH LGT NNE H925 FLOW...MODERATION
OFF LK SUP WL BE GREATEST.

TNGT...SHRTWV NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER LK SUP.
BOTH NAM/GFS GENERATE NO PCPN OVER UPR MI DESPITE SOME DPVA/MODEST
MOISTENING IN THE H85-7 LYR WITH RETURN WSW FLOW/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC
AS FCST SDNGS SHOW LLVLS REMAINING PROBHITIVELY DRY. CONSIDERING THE
ABSENCE OF DIURNAL HTG...WL RETAIN GOING DRY FCST. BOTH MODELS SHOW
MOST IMPRESSIVE MID LVL MOISTENING OVER THE NRN TIER CLOSER TO TRACK
OF DISTURBANCE...SO EXPECT MORE CLD COVER THERE. PLAN ON LOWEST MINS
OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL WHERE MID CLD WL BE LESS.

ON SUN...SHRTWV TRACKING THRU LK SUP IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN UPR TROF
OVER ONTARIO. COOLER AIR IS FCST TO SPILL INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN ZNS WHERE GFS/NAM SHOW H85 TEMP OF 7C AT ERY
BY 00Z MON. THE W IS FCST TO BE JUST GLANCED BY THIS COOL SHOT WITH
H85 TEMP AT IWD 11C AT THE END OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMPLETELY DRY...NAM GENERATES SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE SCNTRL AND E
INLAND FM LK SUP STABILIZATION MODERATION...WHERE MODEL FCST SDNG
FOR ISQ AT 18Z SHOWS SFC-H875 ML CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS ALSO HAS SOME MSTR IN THE H8-7 LYR...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE APPEARS
TO BE HIER H6 TEMP VS THE NAM...-7C GFS VS -9C NAM. CONSIDERING THE
PERSISTENT ERN TROF AND RATHER VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF SHRTWV NOW
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...THE LOWER H6 TEMP SEEMS MOST RSNBL. SINCE
PREVIOUS FCST HAD SCHC POPS DURING PD OF DAYTIME HTG...WL RETAIN
THESE LO POPS OVER THE E HALF OF THE FA INLAND FM LK SUP. OVER THE
W...EVEN THE NAM SHOWS A HI ENUF H6 TEMP/LESS IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES
TO STUNT SHRA DVLPMNT.

OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT SUN NGT TO 40 OVER THE E AS GFS/NAM SHOW
DEEPER MSTR ON WRN FLANK OF CUTOFF LO TO THE E IMPACTING AREAS
MAINLY E OF MQT-ESC. THE CONTRAST IN FCST SDNGS TO THE W HOWEVER IS
QUITE STRIKING IN TERMS OF MSTR AND STABILITY WITH NAM  SHOWING PWAT
RANGING FM 1.00 INCH AT ERY TO 0.46 INCH AT IWD AT 06Z MON. ALTHOUGH
H85 TEMPS AT ERY ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER THAN OVER THE W...FVRBL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SUG THE LOWER MIN TEMPS WL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR W.

NOT SURPRISINGLY WITH FAST NW FLOW ALF...NAM AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER
ON MON CONCERNING STRENGTH AND IMPACT OF ANOTHER SHRTWV THAT IS FCST
TO DIVE SEWD IN NW FLOW ALF TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS. THE GFS DEPICTS
A SOMEWHAT SHARPER SHRTWV THAT DIGS FARTHER W AND GENERATES SOME LGT
PCPN OVER THE W HALF OF UPR MI. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS
LARGER SCALE HGT RISES DOMINATING UPR MI ON MON IN THE WAKE OF
DEEPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PCPN CHCS ON SUN NGT THAT WL BE
SLOWLY DEPARTING TO THE E ON MON. SINCE THE 00Z UKMET/CNDN MODELS
SHOW A SCENARIO MORE SIMILAR TO THE NAM FCST...WL TEND IN THIS
DIRECTION. SO AFT SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE E IN THE MRNG ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF IN SE ONTARIO...WL GO DRY IN THE AFTN.

ONLY CHG MADE BEYOND MON NGT WAS TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS LATE TUE NGT
AND WED OVER THE W AS GFS MODEL IS FASTER BRINGING A RETURN OF WAD
PCPN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. BUT 0Z GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITH DEEP LO PRES IT DRIVES TOWARD UPR MI...SO WAS MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE PUSHING POPS EWD AS FAST AS THAT EXPLICIT MODEL
GUIDANCE WOULD SUG.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AND WELL BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCED AT
AROUND 10KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST MID WEEK. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS ARE TO REMAIN AT
SPEEDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES CALM TO THREE FEET.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...RJT

000
FXUS63 KAPX 040714
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
315 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL ALLOW
FOR A FANTASTIC FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY KICK OFF A SCATTERED SHOWER OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
WILL ONCE AGAIN FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/...TODAY

NO REASON TO MAKE THIS COMPLICATED...OR LENGTHY. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW HAS FINALLY EXITED EAST...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NOW TRYING
TO EDGE IN. IT NEVER QUITE GOES THRU...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT
NW-ERLY 1000-850MB FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE...
BUT SUNSHINE WILL AT LEAST BE REASONABLY ABUNDANT. THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS IN THE SW ZONES...ADVECTED IN FROM
MORE ACTIVE WX IN THE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70
(EASTERN UPPER) TO THE MID 70S (MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER). HAPPY 4TH!

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

RIDGE-WEST/TROF-EAST PATTERN WILL REAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
EVEN AS THE PATTERN REMAINS SLOOOOOWLY PROGRESSIVE. DEEP NW-ERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE REAL QUESTIONS CONCERN
WHETHER AND WHEN THE TROF GETS REINFORCED FROM NW CANADA.
PRECIP/TEMP TRENDS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

MODELS...ARE TRENDING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE CLIPPER PASSING JUST
TO OUR NE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM BOTH HAVE THIS SYSTEM CLOSED
OFF...WITH THE GFS BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. THE GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ONLY
JUST TRICKLING IN...IT APPEARS A BIT FASTER/LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS. SOMETHING IN THE GFS/ECMWF NEIGHBORHOOD SHOULD WORK OUT.

TONIGHT...QUIET. BIG CIRRUS SHIELD TO OUR W/SW WILL GET SHUNTED
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING CLIPPER FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS COULD REACH EASTERN UPPER MI TOWARD MORNING. THIS WILL NOT
GET IN THE WAY OF MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH MINS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
50 IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH AS COOL AS THE LOWER 40S IN THE CHILLIEST
INLAND LOCALES.

SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN ONTARIO...AHEAD OF
THE AMPLIFYING CLIPPER SHORTWAVE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE MORNING...AND SLOW IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI
IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
FEATURE...WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL BE JUST APPROACHING
EASTERN UPPER MI FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING. EARLIER FORECAST
HAD A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PLAN.

ALSO A CONCERN IS WHETHER WE MIGHT BE TO COOK OFF A SHOWER FURTHER
SOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SKINNY FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...BASED ON SEEMINGLY REASONABLE
SURFACE DEW POINTS OF AROUND 50. WE HAVE THE FRONT AS A TRIGGER
(THOUGH IT/S STALLING)...AND THE INEVITABLE LAKE BREEZES AND GENERAL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE PENINSULA. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI COAST...ESPECIALLY IN
A BAND FROM KALKASKA TO GAYLORD TO ROGERS CITY. GIVEN THE CAPE IS
STILL PRETTY SMALL I WILL NOT INTRODUCE A POP AT THIS TIME.

MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 NORTH...MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...CLIPPER CARRIES ON INTO FAR WESTERN QUEBEC...
GIVING THE FRONT A NICE SOUTHWARD PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS WRAPPED RATHER TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW...RESTRICTING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS PLN
AND APN...AND WILL LEAVE A RESIDUAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING IN THE ST MARYS VALLEY. A BIT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES
ON MONDAY...AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER FROM THE NW. THIS
ONE COULD RETURN LAYERED CLOUDS TO UPPER MI...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP.

RATHER NARROW COLD PUNCH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MODELS DIFFER AS TO
HOW HARD WE FEEL THAT PUNCH. THE GFS OFFERS JUST A GLANCING BLOW...
AND MAX TEMPS CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. IN
DEFERENCE TO THE OLD ECMWF...WILL ONLY TWEAK MAX TEMPS UPWARD...
RANGING MAINLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...GFS HAS DECIDED TO KICK THE NEXT CLIPPER INTO
A HIGHER GEAR AS WELL. THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS NOT ALONG FOR THE
RIDE. IN ADDITION...THIS 2ND WAVE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE-STARVED THAN
THE 1ST. THAT SHOULD BE THE LAST REINFORCING SHOT...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF. UPPER PATTERN FINALLY WORKS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FORECAST...THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WED/WED NIGHT
FOR PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

JZ

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 315 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS THRU SUNDAY.
LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING IN SOMEWHAT GUSTIER NW WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
THOUGH AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 130 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE
24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 040702
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
302 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY

AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN 00Z MODELS
ARE FORECASTING. WITH A CONSISTENT TREND OF A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT REMOVING SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL DO
SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS ALONG H5 TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF DETROIT NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO
THE SAGINAW VALLEY. GIVEN DECIDED LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
THE AREA...AND GENERAL LACK OF SUPPORT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE SO FAR TO
THE SOUTH...DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING ANY SHOWERS TO THIS PORTION OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ACTIVITY WOULD
BE RATHER ISOLATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST AREAS...ONLY STALLING IN THE UPPER
60S NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MAY HAMPER WARMING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SO
EXPECT A RELATIVELY SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...

FOR TONIGHT...JUST THE DEPARTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
EVENING AS SE MI WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  ON SUNDAY WILL BE WAITING
FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST LAKES
REGION TO INTENSIFY A NEWLY DEVELOPED 500 MB LOW. MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE TOO
RICH WITH SURFACE MOISTURE WHICH GIVES CAPES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG.  MODIFYING SOUNDINGS WITH MID 70S TEMPS AND
MID 50S DEW POINTS ARE MORE LIKE 500-1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE. SO WITH THAT INSTABILITY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 21Z TO 03Z. THOSE MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PARCELS GETTING TO THE EQL AND THUS TO -20C
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. MOS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE AND WILL NOT STRAY FROM THAT.

FROM THERE THERE IS MODEL DIVERGENCE...WITH THE GFS BY FAR THE MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.  CANADIAN...UKMET AND
NAM ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE FLATTER WAVE. AS A
RESULT...THE SUNDAY NIGHT 500 MB LOW IS SLOWER MOVING...AND SLOW
ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE MONDAYS WEATHER. SE MI WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
GOOD 925 MB TO 850 MB MOISTURE...AND THERE IS GOOD INSTABILITY BELOW
700 MBS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
MONDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND COOLER TEMPS THAN ON SUNDAY.  SHOULD BE A GOOD GRADIENT
FROM BAX TO ADG. BAX LIKELY WILL BE BKN-OVC ALL DAY WITH 850 TEMPS
OF +6 TO +8...WHILE ADG WILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH 850
TEMPS OF +10 TO +12C.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE ON
MONDAY TEMPS...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW SINCE THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST
WEST/SLOWEST TO HAVE THE 500 MB LOW MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
LAKES.

NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED AS HEIGHTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BUILD. AS
THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS IN THE MID WEEK...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND THEN
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ATTM...WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A
BIT CLOSE ON MONDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH LAKE HURON...AND BRINGS A 6-10 HOUR WINDOW
OF HIGHER WINDS...AND ALSO WAVES...AS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR SPILLS BACK OVER THE LAKE WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WITHIN VFR AS
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FILTERS IN.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND DIURNAL HEATING ONCE AGAIN ENHANCES THE STRATO-CU
DEVELOPMENT.  CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AOA 5K FT DURING THIS TIME.
LGT/VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....RBP
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 040520 AAB
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
ERN CANADA WHILE AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...IN BETWEEN THESE LARGER-SCALE
WEATHER SYSTEMS...A SERIES OF WEAK MID TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL STREAM OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PROCEED EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)... ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT

MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER ONTARIO WILL STAY NORTH
AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH LTL OR NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. EXPECT STRATOCU OVER INLAND AREAS TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV
GUIDANCE ON INLAND MIN TEMPS WITH GENERALLY MID 40S EAST AND UPR 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND PLEASANT
FOURTH OF JULY ON SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C NORTH AND EAST TO
AROUND 11C SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S NORTH AND EAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER (MID TO UPR 60S) NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES SHORES.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...WITH ADNL
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ALONG THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE MID MS VLY AND
OH VLY REGIONS. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE
MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN U.P. LATE SUN AFTN/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL TRIGGER /OTHER
THAN WEAK LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS/ WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST HALF...BUT CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW. WILL
THEREFORE GO WITH SCHC POPS SUN AFTN/NIGHT GENERALLY E OF A MQT-IMT
LINE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE
ON MON. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER
MOTION...KEEPING THE NEWLY DEVELOPED UPPER LOW OVER OR JUST EAST OF
LAKE HURON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
MON EVENING. THE NAM AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING
A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 60S EAST AND UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S WEST BUT THIS COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. BIG DIFFERENCE
COMPARED TO THE PAST 4 DAYS IS THE FACT THAT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BE MUCH WEAKER AND THE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FASTER. CANNOT RULE
OUT SHOWERS MONDAY GIVEN COOL 500MB TEMPS AND THE UPPER LOW NEARLY.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...EXPECT THE CHANCES TO BE LOW BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND HAVE OPTED TO GO 20
POPS MON.

LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO SUMMER FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DAYS 4-7. HEIGHTS WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR
BROAD S-SW FLOW BRINGING 850MB TEMPS TO NEAR 20C. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAST IT WARMS UP WITH THE ECMWF BEING 12-24 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. SINCE THE GFS LOOKS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINING THE +20C
LINE NORTH...AND GIVEN THAT THE 00Z RUN STRUGGLED WITH THE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 80S SHOULD BE
COMMON ON THU AND HAVE OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING N OF THE AREA WED
AFTN/NIGHT...OPTED TO INCLUDE CHC POPS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
FCST TO MOVE OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER IN PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU AFTN...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE 30
POPS FOR THU AFTN-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AND WELL BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
CALM/LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCED AT
AROUND 10KT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KNOTS THROUGH THE FCST PD AND WAVES CALM TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON/RJT
MARINE...VOSS

000
FXUS63 KAPX 040508
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
107 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FANTASTIC FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
SUN...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1006 PM/...OVERNIGHT

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR
FINALLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION...AND WILL LOSS OF ANY DIURNAL
COMPONENT. SOME THIN CIRRUS HAS REACHED SW PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WELL
IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
CLOUD COVER HAS ARRIVED A BIT SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
THIN NATURE OF CI SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
A COOL EARLY JULY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NRN MICHIGAN...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...GREAT WEATHER (FINALLY!) FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND ON TAP...WITH PRIMARY FCST CONCERN CENTERED ON PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...AS WELL AS TEMPS ON MONDAY. PERSISTENT
AND PESKY UPR GYRE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK OFF TO THE EAST (AS WILL SECOND POTENT VORT
IN ITS WAKE)...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/BUBBLE HIGH TAKING HOLD
OF THE REGION ON THE 4TH OF JULY. PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY SEE
A BIT OF CU FIRE INLAND BOTH EASTERN UPR AND NORTHERN LOWER WITH
WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. AFTN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S APPEAR VERY REASONABLE.

SOMEWHAT SIMILAR STORY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BUT FOLLOWING ALONG RECENT TRENDS...NOW APPEARS RESIDUAL
WEAKNESS FROM DEPARTING UPR LOW WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER GYRE TO DROP
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
RATHER HEALTHY SHOT OF UPR FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE (PWATS PUSHING AN INCH) MANDATES A CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE FARTHER SOUTH PENDING
PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY AGAIN LOOK QUITE NICE
(ALBEIT STILL JUST SHOW OF "NORMAL")...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S.
BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS PERIOD WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPS ON
MONDAY WITH 12Z GUIDANCE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
HEALTHY SHOT OF COLD AIR ROLLING BACK INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
H85 TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 7C (12Z ECMWF A VERY CHILLY 4C) SUGGESTS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...AND PERHAPS LOWER HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO BE FULLY INTACT.

LATER PERIODS (MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY)...AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF COOLISH WX...APPEARS MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER (BY NORTHERN
MICHIGAN STANDARDS) IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THE
PERIOD IS NOT WITHOUT SOME QUESTIONS. OVERALL UPR PATTERN LOOKS TO
BE DOMINATED INITIALLY BY RESIDUAL TROUGHING TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING
TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD NORTHWARD VIA GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING.
HOWEVER...DEGREE OF SAID NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SO-CALLED "HEAT
RIDGE" SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THIS FAR NORTH AS SLOW LOSS OF WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH PROMOTES MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING THRU THE
NORTHERN STREAM...THEREBY LIKELY HELPING SUPPRESS HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT
ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NO DOUBT IT WILL GET WARMER...BUT
DIFFICULT TO BITE OFF ON 00Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SCENARIO
SHOWING FULL FLEDGED RIDGING (H5 HEIGHTS 585 TO 588DM) AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PAINT A MUCH MORE MUTED PICTURE OF THE HEIGHT FIELD ACRS THE REGION.
SO WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL HOLD AFTN HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW GUIDANCE/
HPC NUMBERS WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT CERTAINLY SOME CHANCE FOR A WARM
DAY OR TWO IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING COOL FRONT...WHICH AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS DEGREE OF UPR FORCING
(AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH)...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY AT THIS
POINT BUT CERTAINLY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED POPS GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO
BE AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN ON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME.

LAWRENCE

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/

NORTHWEST FLOW COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SHALLOW OVER WATER
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITHING THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT NEARSHORE
ZONE ON LAKE HURON. THUS WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

ADAM

GREAT BOATING WEEKEND IN STORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE STRAITS ON SATURDAY. A BIT STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED GRADIENT...AND GIVEN COASTAL CONVERGENCE
HELP ON NORTHWEST FLOW...MAY WELL SEE GUSTS APPROACH 25 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...AND PERHAPS EVEN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR ROTATES IN ALOFT.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 130 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE
24 HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 040351
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WITHIN VFR AS
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FILTERS IN.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND DIURNAL HEATING ONCE AGAIN ENHANCES THE STRATO-CU
DEVELOPMENT.  CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AOA 5K FT DURING THIS TIME.
LGT/VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

LAST GASP FROM THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW COMPLEX IS UNDERWAY WITH YET
ANOTHER CLOUD FILLED AFTERNOON.  SIGNS OF THE END OF THIS EPISODE
ARE ON THE DISTANT WESTERN HORIZON WHERE CLOUDS ARE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED.  TODAY/S CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN AIDED BY THE BRIEF INFLUX
OF SUN THIS MORNING IN COMBINATION WITH THERMAL TROUGHING IN THE
925-850MB LAYER.  AS THIS FEATURE EXITS STAGE RIGHT...EXPECT THE
CLOUD FIELD TO THIN AND THEN NEARLY DISSIPATE POST-DUSK.  HIGH
CLOUDS POISED OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVANCE
EAST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP
BACK INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

LONG TERM...

115+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST QUICKLY
FLATTENING...AS SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER
TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING/FOLDING OVER AND LOW LEVEL JET
VEERING OVER MISSOURI TONIGHT...LOOKING AT THE WARM
FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT TO
TRACK SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER JUST IN CASE THE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS A BIT
STRONGER AND 700 MB FGEN ZONE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH. WITH AT LEAST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND (ESPECIALLY SOUTH)...TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY HOLD IN THE MID 70S...AND JUST USED THE MAV GUIDANCE...AS
CU RULES ALSO SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL.

THE TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS FOR A BIT STRONGER
UPPER WAVE/FARTHER WEST WITH THE 500 MB LOW...WHICH INCREASES THE
CHANCE FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS BY SUNDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (-20 C AT 500 MB SWINGING
THROUGH LAKE HURON). DO FAVOR THE SLOWER NAM/CANADIAN TIMING OVER
THE GFS...AND WILL CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT PERIOD...AS SHOWALTER INDEX DOES DROP DOWN TO AROUND
ZERO. BANKING ON THE SKINNY CAPE/SUB -20 C EQL TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. BASED ON THE EVEN SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
OF THE 12Z EUROPEAN...INCLUDED AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF CWA INTO MONDAY AS WELL.

LOOKING AT A CONTINUED RELATIVELY COOL (70S) START TO THE WORK WEEK
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH...BUT A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEEKS END...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AS PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.  WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SWING
TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY
TO RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY IN IT/S WAKE.  WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MANN
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......MANN

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 040340
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1140 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THE FOURTH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
PROVIDING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1035 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST.  HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS
OF IT AND  ALSO SEEN ON WEB CAMS.  THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS
APPROACHING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY THIN...ESPECIALLY EAST...SO THE FOG
WILL REMAIN.  ANY SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK SHOULD ONLY BE
MAKING IT TO THE SHORELINE FROM MKG SOUTH...AND WILL STILL BE
ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT.  HAVE TWEAK POPS SLIGHTLY.

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE IN OUR DIRECTION
TONIGHT FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY. THE GRR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CLOUDS
BEING THE MAIN ISSUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MAY END UP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE I-94 CORRIDOR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS.

CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST SUMMER LIKE DAY OF THE LAST 5...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE
DETERMINING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FRONTS TRYING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES...THE DEGREE OF
WARMING WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED.

UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED TO SOME DEGREE BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING SE OUT OF
CANADA. MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THESE
POTENTIAL FEATURES. THE MODELS DO AGREE WITH KEEPING THE ACTIVE
PORTION OF THE JET NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THU. CHC OF RAIN
IS NOT ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
BEST THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE ON FRI AS A WAVE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ECMWF KEEPS H850 TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER INITIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
A LITTLE CLOSER...HOWEVER ALL MODELS WARM H850 TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20C BY NEXT FRI. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S AND APPROACHING 90...IF NOT WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(1140 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2009)
NO CHANGES FROM EARLIER THINKING EXPECT THAT I DROPPED THE VCSH.
LOOKING AT LOOPS BOTH THE RADAR MOSAIC AND IR IMAGES... IT CAN BE
SEEN THAT THE ECHOS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS KEEP DRYING UP ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE SYSTEM TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST
WITH THE JET ENTRANCE REGION... I NOW BELIEVE MORE STRONGLY THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OF ANY PCPN ON OUR CWA SATURDAY FROM THIS SYSTEM
PASSING SOUTH OF HERE.  THERE IS TO MUCH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR... SO VFR
CIGS/VIS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...(835 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.  WEB CAMS
WERE SHOWING FOG ALONG THE SHORELINE AT MUSKEGON AND GRAND HAVEN.
GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND POCKETS OF COOLER WATER THIS FOG IS LIABLE
TO PERSIST IN SPOTS.

OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE 10-12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. CORRESPONDINGLY...WAVES SHOULD BE 1-2 FEET OR LESS
THIS WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
SHOULD LIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     DUKE
SHORT TERM:   DUKE JK
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       DUKE JK
HYDROLOGY:    DUKE

000
FXUS63 KGRR 040235
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1035 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THE FOURTH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
PROVIDING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1035 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST.  HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME REPORTS
OF IT AND  ALSO SEEN ON WEB CAMS.  THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS
APPROACHING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY THIN...ESPECIALLY EAST...SO THE FOG
WILL REMAIN.  ANY SHOWERS THAT ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK SHOULD ONLY BE
MAKING IT TO THE SHORELINE FROM MKG SOUTH...AND WILL STILL BE
ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT.  HAVE TWEAK POPS SLIGHTLY.

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE IN OUR DIRECTION
TONIGHT FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY. THE GRR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CLOUDS
BEING THE MAIN ISSUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MAY END UP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE I-94 CORRIDOR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS.

CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST SUMMER LIKE DAY OF THE LAST 5...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE
DETERMINING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FRONTS TRYING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES...THE DEGREE OF
WARMING WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED.

UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED TO SOME DEGREE BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING SE OUT OF
CANADA. MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THESE
POTENTIAL FEATURES. THE MODELS DO AGREE WITH KEEPING THE ACTIVE
PORTION OF THE JET NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THU. CHC OF RAIN
IS NOT ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
BEST THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE ON FRI AS A WAVE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ECMWF KEEPS H850 TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER INITIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
A LITTLE CLOSER...HOWEVER ALL MODELS WARM H850 TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20C BY NEXT FRI. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S AND APPROACHING 90...IF NOT WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(708 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
AS I SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...THE AXIS OF THE POLAR JET MOVED EAST OF
THE GRAND RAPIDS CWA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WITH THAT WENT
THE LOW CLOUD COVER. THUS I EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER... THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT SAME JET WILL COME OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BRING SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS IN TOWARD MORNING. I BELIEVE THE RAIN WILL STAY
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WITH THIS EVENT...CLOSER TO I-80 SATURDAY. EVEN
SO... I ALLOWED VCSH IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE MID MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS I DO NOT BELIEVE
FOG IS MUCH OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(835 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.  WEB CAMS
WERE SHOWING FOG ALONG THE SHORELINE AT MUSKEGON AND GRAND HAVEN.
GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND POCKETS OF COOLER WATER THIS FOG IS LIABLE
TO PERSIST IN SPOTS.

OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE 10-12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. CORRESPONDINGLY...WAVES SHOULD BE 1-2 FEET OR LESS
THIS WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
SHOULD LIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     DUKE
SHORT TERM:   DUKE JK
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       DUKE JK
HYDROLOGY:    DUKE

000
FXUS63 KAPX 040206
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1006 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FANTASTIC FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
SUN...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1006 PM/...OVERNIGHT

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR
FINALLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION...AND WILL LOSS OF ANY DIURNAL
COMPONENT. SOME THIN CIRRUS HAS REACHED SW PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WELL
IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
CLOUD COVER HAS ARRIVED A BIT SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
THIN NATURE OF CI SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
A COOL EARLY JULY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NRN MICHIGAN...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...GREAT WEATHER (FINALLY!) FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND ON TAP...WITH PRIMARY FCST CONCERN CENTERED ON PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...AS WELL AS TEMPS ON MONDAY. PERSISTENT
AND PESKY UPR GYRE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK OFF TO THE EAST (AS WILL SECOND POTENT VORT
IN ITS WAKE)...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/BUBBLE HIGH TAKING HOLD
OF THE REGION ON THE 4TH OF JULY. PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY SEE
A BIT OF CU FIRE INLAND BOTH EASTERN UPR AND NORTHERN LOWER WITH
WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. AFTN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S APPEAR VERY REASONABLE.

SOMEWHAT SIMILAR STORY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BUT FOLLOWING ALONG RECENT TRENDS...NOW APPEARS RESIDUAL
WEAKNESS FROM DEPARTING UPR LOW WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER GYRE TO DROP
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
RATHER HEALTHY SHOT OF UPR FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE (PWATS PUSHING AN INCH) MANDATES A CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE FARTHER SOUTH PENDING
PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY AGAIN LOOK QUITE NICE
(ALBEIT STILL JUST SHOW OF "NORMAL")...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S.
BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS PERIOD WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPS ON
MONDAY WITH 12Z GUIDANCE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
HEALTHY SHOT OF COLD AIR ROLLING BACK INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
H85 TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 7C (12Z ECMWF A VERY CHILLY 4C) SUGGESTS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...AND PERHAPS LOWER HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO BE FULLY INTACT.

LATER PERIODS (MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY)...AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF COOLISH WX...APPEARS MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER (BY NORTHERN
MICHIGAN STANDARDS) IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THE
PERIOD IS NOT WITHOUT SOME QUESTIONS. OVERALL UPR PATTERN LOOKS TO
BE DOMINATED INITIALLY BY RESIDUAL TROUGHING TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING
TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD NORTHWARD VIA GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING.
HOWEVER...DEGREE OF SAID NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SO-CALLED "HEAT
RIDGE" SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THIS FAR NORTH AS SLOW LOSS OF WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH PROMOTES MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING THRU THE
NORTHERN STREAM...THEREBY LIKELY HELPING SUPPRESS HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT
ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NO DOUBT IT WILL GET WARMER...BUT
DIFFICULT TO BITE OFF ON 00Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SCENARIO
SHOWING FULL FLEDGED RIDGING (H5 HEIGHTS 585 TO 588DM) AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PAINT A MUCH MORE MUTED PICTURE OF THE HEIGHT FIELD ACRS THE REGION.
SO WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL HOLD AFTN HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW GUIDANCE/
HPC NUMBERS WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT CERTAINLY SOME CHANCE FOR A WARM
DAY OR TWO IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING COOL FRONT...WHICH AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS DEGREE OF UPR FORCING
(AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH)...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY AT THIS
POINT BUT CERTAINLY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED POPS GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO
BE AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN ON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME.

LAWRENCE

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/

NORTHWEST FLOW COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SHALLOW OVER WATER
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITHING THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT NEARSHORE
ZONE ON LAKE HURON. THUS WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

ADAM

GREAT BOATING WEEKEND IN STORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE STRAITS ON SATURDAY. A BIT STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED GRADIENT...AND GIVEN COASTAL CONVERGENCE
HELP ON NORTHWEST FLOW...MAY WELL SEE GUSTS APPROACH 25 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...AND PERHAPS EVEN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR ROTATES IN ALOFT.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 712 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

AFTER MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE AROUND APN BY SUNSET THIS EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE 24
HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...WITH LAKE BREEZES KICKING IN BY MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 040036
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
835 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

LATEST UPDATE...MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THE FOURTH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
PROVIDING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE IN OUR DIRECTION
TONIGHT FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY. THE GRR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CLOUDS
BEING THE MAIN ISSUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MAY END UP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE I-94 CORRIDOR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS.

CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST SUMMER LIKE DAY OF THE LAST 5...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE
DETERMINING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FRONTS TRYING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES...THE DEGREE OF
WARMING WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED.

UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED TO SOME DEGREE BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING SE OUT OF
CANADA. MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THESE
POTENTIAL FEATURES. THE MODELS DO AGREE WITH KEEPING THE ACTIVE
PORTION OF THE JET NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THU. CHC OF RAIN
IS NOT ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
BEST THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE ON FRI AS A WAVE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ECMWF KEEPS H850 TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER INITIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
A LITTLE CLOSER...HOWEVER ALL MODELS WARM H850 TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20C BY NEXT FRI. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S AND APPROACHING 90...IF NOT WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(708 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
AS I SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...THE AXIS OF THE POLAR JET MOVED EAST OF
THE GRAND RAPIDS CWA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WITH THAT WENT
THE LOW CLOUD COVER. THUS I EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER... THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT SAME JET WILL COME OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BRING SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS IN TOWARD MORNING. I BELIEVE THE RAIN WILL STAY
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WITH THIS EVENT...CLOSER TO I-80 SATURDAY. EVEN
SO... I ALLOWED VCSH IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE MID MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS I DO NOT BELIEVE
FOG IS MUCH OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(835 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.  WEB CAMS
WERE SHOWING FOG ALONG THE SHORELINE AT MUSKEGON AND GRAND HAVEN.
GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND POCKETS OF COOLER WATER THIS FOG IS LIABLE
TO PERSIST IN SPOTS.

OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE 10-12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. CORRESPONDINGLY...WAVES SHOULD BE 1-2 FEET OR LESS
THIS WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
SHOULD LIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     DUKE
SHORT TERM:   DUKE
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       DUKE JK
HYDROLOGY:    DUKE

000
FXUS63 KMQT 032333 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
733 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
ERN CANADA WHILE AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...IN BETWEEN THESE LARGER-SCALE
WEATHER SYSTEMS...A SERIES OF WEAK MID TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL STREAM OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PROCEED EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)... ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT

MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER ONTARIO WILL STAY NORTH
AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH LTL OR NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. EXPECT STRATOCU OVER INLAND AREAS TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV
GUIDANCE ON INLAND MIN TEMPS WITH GENERALLY MID 40S EAST AND UPR 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND PLEASANT
FOURTH OF JULY ON SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C NORTH AND EAST TO
AROUND 11C SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S NORTH AND EAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER (MID TO UPR 60S) NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES SHORES.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...WITH ADNL
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ALONG THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE MID MS VLY AND
OH VLY REGIONS. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE
MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN U.P. LATE SUN AFTN/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL TRIGGER /OTHER
THAN WEAK LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS/ WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST HALF...BUT CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW. WILL
THEREFORE GO WITH SCHC POPS SUN AFTN/NIGHT GENERALLY E OF A MQT-IMT
LINE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE
ON MON. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER
MOTION...KEEPING THE NEWLY DEVELOPED UPPER LOW OVER OR JUST EAST OF
LAKE HURON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
MON EVENING. THE NAM AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING
A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 60S EAST AND UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S WEST BUT THIS COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. BIG DIFFERENCE
COMPARED TO THE PAST 4 DAYS IS THE FACT THAT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BE MUCH WEAKER AND THE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FASTER. CANNOT RULE
OUT SHOWERS MONDAY GIVEN COOL 500MB TEMPS AND THE UPPER LOW NEARLY.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...EXPECT THE CHANCES TO BE LOW BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND HAVE OPTED TO GO 20
POPS MON.

LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO SUMMER FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DAYS 4-7. HEIGHTS WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR
BROAD S-SW FLOW BRINGING 850MB TEMPS TO NEAR 20C. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAST IT WARMS UP WITH THE ECMWF BEING 12-24 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. SINCE THE GFS LOOKS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINING THE +20C
LINE NORTH...AND GIVEN THAT THE 00Z RUN STRUGGLED WITH THE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 80S SHOULD BE
COMMON ON THU AND HAVE OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING N OF THE AREA WED
AFTN/NIGHT...OPTED TO INCLUDE CHC POPS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
FCST TO MOVE OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER IN PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU AFTN...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE 30
POPS FOR THU AFTN-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

DRIER AIR SETTLING OVER THE AREA WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS AT
KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AND WELL BEYOND. CALM/LIGHT WINDS
AFTER SUNSET WILL BECOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCED SAT...ROUGHLY AROUND
10KT.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KNOTS THROUGH THE FCST PD AND WAVES CALM TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS

000
FXUS63 KDTX 032331
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
731 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...

CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.  WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN AS WELL WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH HIGHER CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND DIURNAL HEATING
ONCE AGAIN ENHANCES THE STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT.  CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
AOA 5K FT DURING THIS TIME.   LGT/VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 326 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

LAST GASP FROM THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW COMPLEX IS UNDERWAY WITH YET
ANOTHER CLOUD FILLED AFTERNOON.  SIGNS OF THE END OF THIS EPISODE
ARE ON THE DISTANT WESTERN HORIZON WHERE CLOUDS ARE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED.  TODAY/S CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN AIDED BY THE BRIEF INFLUX
OF SUN THIS MORNING IN COMBINATION WITH THERMAL TROUGHING IN THE
925-850MB LAYER.  AS THIS FEATURE EXITS STAGE RIGHT...EXPECT THE
CLOUD FIELD TO THIN AND THEN NEARLY DISSIPATE POST-DUSK.  HIGH
CLOUDS POISED OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVANCE
EAST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP
BACK INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

LONG TERM...

115+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST QUICKLY
FLATTENING...AS SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER
TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING/FOLDING OVER AND LOW LEVEL JET
VEERING OVER MISSOURI TONIGHT...LOOKING AT THE WARM
FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT TO
TRACK SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER JUST IN CASE THE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS A BIT
STRONGER AND 700 MB FGEN ZONE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH. WITH AT LEAST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND (ESPECIALLY SOUTH)...TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY HOLD IN THE MID 70S...AND JUST USED THE MAV GUIDANCE...AS
CU RULES ALSO SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL.

THE TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS FOR A BIT STRONGER
UPPER WAVE/FARTHER WEST WITH THE 500 MB LOW...WHICH INCREASES THE
CHANCE FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS BY SUNDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (-20 C AT 500 MB SWINGING
THROUGH LAKE HURON). DO FAVOR THE SLOWER NAM/CANADIAN TIMING OVER
THE GFS...AND WILL CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT PERIOD...AS SHOWALTER INDEX DOES DROP DOWN TO AROUND
ZERO. BANKING ON THE SKINNY CAPE/SUB -20 C EQL TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. BASED ON THE EVEN SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
OF THE 12Z EUROPEAN...INCLUDED AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF CWA INTO MONDAY AS WELL.

LOOKING AT A CONTINUED RELATIVELY COOL (70S) START TO THE WORK WEEK
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH...BUT A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEEKS END...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AS PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.  WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SWING
TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY
TO RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY IN IT/S WAKE.  WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...MANN
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......MANN

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 032312
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
712 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FANTASTIC FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
SUN...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/...TONIGHT

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO ROTATE
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF FLAT RIDGING
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING ONE FINAL SMALL SCALE
CIRCULATION THAT BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS AND A FLARE UP OF -DZ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES FINALLY
WORKING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN REGIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS CU/STCU STILL LINGERING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
AND NRN WISCONSIN FADES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AND WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS...ANTICIPATE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...GREAT WEATHER (FINALLY!) FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND ON TAP...WITH PRIMARY FCST CONCERN CENTERED ON PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...AS WELL AS TEMPS ON MONDAY. PERSISTENT
AND PESKY UPR GYRE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK OFF TO THE EAST (AS WILL SECOND POTENT VORT
IN ITS WAKE)...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/BUBBLE HIGH TAKING HOLD
OF THE REGION ON THE 4TH OF JULY. PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY SEE
A BIT OF CU FIRE INLAND BOTH EASTERN UPR AND NORTHERN LOWER WITH
WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. AFTN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S APPEAR VERY REASONABLE.

SOMEWHAT SIMILAR STORY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BUT FOLLOWING ALONG RECENT TRENDS...NOW APPEARS RESIDUAL
WEAKNESS FROM DEPARTING UPR LOW WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER GYRE TO DROP
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
RATHER HEALTHY SHOT OF UPR FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE (PWATS PUSHING AN INCH) MANDATES A CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE FARTHER SOUTH PENDING
PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY AGAIN LOOK QUITE NICE
(ALBEIT STILL JUST SHOW OF "NORMAL")...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S.
BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS PERIOD WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPS ON
MONDAY WITH 12Z GUIDANCE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
HEALTHY SHOT OF COLD AIR ROLLING BACK INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
H85 TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 7C (12Z ECMWF A VERY CHILLY 4C) SUGGESTS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...AND PERHAPS LOWER HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO BE FULLY INTACT.

LATER PERIODS (MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY)...AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF COOLISH WX...APPEARS MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER (BY NORTHERN
MICHIGAN STANDARDS) IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THE
PERIOD IS NOT WITHOUT SOME QUESTIONS. OVERALL UPR PATTERN LOOKS TO
BE DOMINATED INITIALLY BY RESIDUAL TROUGHING TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING
TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD NORTHWARD VIA GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING.
HOWEVER...DEGREE OF SAID NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SO-CALLED "HEAT
RIDGE" SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THIS FAR NORTH AS SLOW LOSS OF WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH PROMOTES MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING THRU THE
NORTHERN STREAM...THEREBY LIKELY HELPING SUPPRESS HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT
ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NO DOUBT IT WILL GET WARMER...BUT
DIFFICULT TO BITE OFF ON 00Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SCENARIO
SHOWING FULL FLEDGED RIDGING (H5 HEIGHTS 585 TO 588DM) AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PAINT A MUCH MORE MUTED PICTURE OF THE HEIGHT FIELD ACRS THE REGION.
SO WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL HOLD AFTN HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW GUIDANCE/
HPC NUMBERS WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT CERTAINLY SOME CHANCE FOR A WARM
DAY OR TWO IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING COOL FRONT...WHICH AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS DEGREE OF UPR FORCING
(AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH)...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY AT THIS
POINT BUT CERTAINLY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED POPS GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO
BE AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN ON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME.

LAWRENCE

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/

NORTHWEST FLOW COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SHALLOW OVER WATER
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITHING THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT NEARSHORE
ZONE ON LAKE HURON. THUS WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

ADAM

GREAT BOATING WEEKEND IN STORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE STRAITS ON SATURDAY. A BIT STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED GRADIENT...AND GIVEN COASTAL CONVERGENCE
HELP ON NORTHWEST FLOW...MAY WELL SEE GUSTS APPROACH 25 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...AND PERHAPS EVEN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR ROTATES IN ALOFT.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 712 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

AFTER MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE AROUND APN BY SUNSET THIS EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU THE 24
HR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...WITH LAKE BREEZES KICKING IN BY MIDDAY ON THE 4TH OF JULY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 032309
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
708 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THE FOURTH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
PROVIDING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE IN OUR DIRECTION
TONIGHT FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY. THE GRR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CLOUDS
BEING THE MAIN ISSUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MAY END UP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE I-94 CORRIDOR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS.

CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST SUMMER LIKE DAY OF THE LAST 5...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE
DETERMINING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FRONTS TRYING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES...THE DEGREE OF
WARMING WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED.

UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED TO SOME DEGREE BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING SE OUT OF
CANADA. MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THESE
POTENTIAL FEATURES. THE MODELS DO AGREE WITH KEEPING THE ACTIVE
PORTION OF THE JET NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THU. CHC OF RAIN
IS NOT ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
BEST THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE ON FRI AS A WAVE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ECMWF KEEPS H850 TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER INITIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
A LITTLE CLOSER...HOWEVER ALL MODELS WARM H850 TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20C BY NEXT FRI. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S AND APPROACHING 90...IF NOT WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(708 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
AS I SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...THE AXIS OF THE POLAR JET MOVED EAST OF
THE GRAND RAPIDS CWA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TODAY. WITH THAT WENT
THE LOW CLOUD COVER. THUS I EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TONIGHT.
HOWEVER... THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THAT SAME JET WILL COME OVER
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BRING SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS IN TOWARD MORNING. I BELIEVE THE RAIN WILL STAY
SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WITH THIS EVENT...CLOSER TO I-80 SATURDAY. EVEN
SO... I ALLOWED VCSH IN THE I-94 TAFS FOR THE MID MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS I DO NOT BELIEVE
FOG IS MUCH OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE 10-12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. CORRESPONDINGLY...WAVES SHOULD BE 1-2 FEET OR LESS
THIS WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
SHOULD LIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     DUKE
SHORT TERM:   DUKE
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       DUKE
HYDROLOGY:    DUKE

000
FXUS63 KGRR 032010
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THE FOURTH FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EVEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
PROVIDING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SHORTWAVE IN OUR DIRECTION
TONIGHT FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM MISSOURI INTO KENTUCKY. THE GRR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CLOUDS
BEING THE MAIN ISSUE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MAY END UP WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE BULK OF THE DAY. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
THE I-94 CORRIDOR STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS.

CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST SUMMER LIKE DAY OF THE LAST 5...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.

AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS POINT MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE
DETERMINING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FRONTS TRYING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES...THE DEGREE OF
WARMING WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED.

UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED TO SOME DEGREE BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING SE OUT OF
CANADA. MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THESE
POTENTIAL FEATURES. THE MODELS DO AGREE WITH KEEPING THE ACTIVE
PORTION OF THE JET NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE PCPN OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THU. CHC OF RAIN
IS NOT ZERO...BUT IT IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
BEST THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE ON FRI AS A WAVE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE EVEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

UPPER HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ECMWF KEEPS H850 TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER INITIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
A LITTLE CLOSER...HOWEVER ALL MODELS WARM H850 TEMPS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20C BY NEXT FRI. THIS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 80S AND APPROACHING 90...IF NOT WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...(157 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
NO MAJOR AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MOVING OUT AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE BECOMING
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INLAND...WITH LAKE INFLUENCE PREVENTING CLOUDS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WE EXPECT THE CLEARING ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO
MOVE IN ACROSS KGRR AND KAZO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CLOUD COVER INLAND WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARD 23Z OR
SO AS DIURNAL COMPONENT IS LOST.

FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO WITH A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE AND WINDS BECOMING RATHER LIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 18Z SAT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. SOME
LIGHT PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS
LIMITED. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SRN AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL WAVES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. WINDS SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE 10-12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. CORRESPONDINGLY...WAVES SHOULD BE 1-2 FEET OR LESS
THIS WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY PREVALENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A SUNNIER DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(409 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
SHOULD LIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     DUKE
SHORT TERM:   DUKE
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     NJJ
MARINE:       DUKE
HYDROLOGY:    DUKE

000
FXUS63 KAPX 032006
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
406 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FANTASTIC FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
SUN...AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS...MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/...TONIGHT

PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO ROTATE
INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF FLAT RIDGING
ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING ONE FINAL SMALL SCALE
CIRCULATION THAT BROUGHT LOWERING CIGS AND A FLARE UP OF -DZ ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES FINALLY
WORKING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN REGIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS CU/STCU STILL LINGERING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
AND NRN WISCONSIN FADES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AND WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS...ANTICIPATE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...GREAT WEATHER (FINALLY!) FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND ON TAP...WITH PRIMARY FCST CONCERN CENTERED ON PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...AS WELL AS TEMPS ON MONDAY. PERSISTENT
AND PESKY UPR GYRE WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK OFF TO THE EAST (AS WILL SECOND POTENT VORT
IN ITS WAKE)...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/BUBBLE HIGH TAKING HOLD
OF THE REGION ON THE 4TH OF JULY. PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH WILL PROBABLY SEE
A BIT OF CU FIRE INLAND BOTH EASTERN UPR AND NORTHERN LOWER WITH
WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. AFTN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S APPEAR VERY REASONABLE.

SOMEWHAT SIMILAR STORY FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL...BUT FOLLOWING ALONG RECENT TRENDS...NOW APPEARS RESIDUAL
WEAKNESS FROM DEPARTING UPR LOW WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER GYRE TO DROP
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
RATHER HEALTHY SHOT OF UPR FORCING IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE (PWATS PUSHING AN INCH) MANDATES A CONTINUED MENTION OF
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION TO FIRE FARTHER SOUTH PENDING
PLACEMENT OF BEST FORCING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY AGAIN LOOK QUITE NICE
(ALBEIT STILL JUST SHOW OF "NORMAL")...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S.
BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS PERIOD WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPS ON
MONDAY WITH 12Z GUIDANCE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
HEALTHY SHOT OF COLD AIR ROLLING BACK INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEAN
H85 TEMPS RUNNING 5 TO 7C (12Z ECMWF A VERY CHILLY 4C) SUGGESTS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...AND PERHAPS LOWER HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO BE FULLY INTACT.

LATER PERIODS (MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY)...AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF COOLISH WX...APPEARS MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER (BY NORTHERN
MICHIGAN STANDARDS) IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THE
PERIOD IS NOT WITHOUT SOME QUESTIONS. OVERALL UPR PATTERN LOOKS TO
BE DOMINATED INITIALLY BY RESIDUAL TROUGHING TUESDAY...TRANSITIONING
TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD NORTHWARD VIA GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING.
HOWEVER...DEGREE OF SAID NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE SO-CALLED "HEAT
RIDGE" SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THIS FAR NORTH AS SLOW LOSS OF WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH PROMOTES MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING THRU THE
NORTHERN STREAM...THEREBY LIKELY HELPING SUPPRESS HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT
ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NO DOUBT IT WILL GET WARMER...BUT
DIFFICULT TO BITE OFF ON 00Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE SCENARIO
SHOWING FULL FLEDGED RIDGING (H5 HEIGHTS 585 TO 588DM) AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
PAINT A MUCH MORE MUTED PICTURE OF THE HEIGHT FIELD ACRS THE REGION.
SO WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL HOLD AFTN HIGHS A TOUCH BELOW GUIDANCE/
HPC NUMBERS WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT CERTAINLY SOME CHANCE FOR A WARM
DAY OR TWO IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING COOL FRONT...WHICH AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS DEGREE OF UPR FORCING
(AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH)...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY AT THIS
POINT BUT CERTAINLY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED POPS GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO
BE AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN ON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME.

LAWRENCE

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 406 PM/

NORTHWEST FLOW COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SHALLOW OVER WATER
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS AND CHOPPY WAVES GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITHING THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT NEARSHORE
ZONE ON LAKE HURON. THUS WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

ADAM

GREAT BOATING WEEKEND IN STORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
OVERALL LIGHT WINDS. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE STRAITS ON SATURDAY. A BIT STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED GRADIENT...AND GIVEN COASTAL CONVERGENCE
HELP ON NORTHWEST FLOW...MAY WELL SEE GUSTS APPROACH 25 KNOTS OVER
PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...AND PERHAPS EVEN NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR ROTATES IN ALOFT.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 210 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

LAST SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION NOW MOVING THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL HOLD MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
BUT ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES...DRIER AIR AND MIXING WILL BEGIN TO
RAISE CIGS AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUD LAYERS WEST TO EAST AFTER 21Z OR
SO WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES BECOMING VFR BY 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

ADAM

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KMQT 031945
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
ERN CANADA WHILE AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS STRONG
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE...IN BETWEEN THESE LARGER-SCALE
WEATHER SYSTEMS...A SERIES OF WEAK MID TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL STREAM OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PROCEED EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER ONTARIO WILL STAY NORTH
AND EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH LTL OR NO IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. EXPECT STRATOCU OVER INLAND AREAS TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MAV
GUIDANCE ON INLAND MIN TEMPS WITH GENERALLY MID 40S EAST AND UPR 40S
WEST AND CENTRAL.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND PLEASANT
FOURTH OF JULY ON SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 9C NORTH AND EAST TO
AROUND 11C SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S NORTH AND EAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER (MID TO UPR 60S) NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...WITH ADNL
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN AFTN/NIGHT. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCKED UP WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ALONG THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE MID MS VLY AND
OH VLY REGIONS. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE
MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN U.P. LATE SUN AFTN/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL TRIGGER /OTHER
THAN WEAK LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS/ WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST HALF...BUT CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW. WILL
THEREFORE GO WITH SCHC POPS SUN AFTN/NIGHT GENERALLY E OF A MQT-IMT
LINE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE UPPER WAVE
ON MON. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER
MOTION...KEEPING THE NEWLY DEVELOPED UPPER LOW OVER OR JUST EAST OF
LAKE HURON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
MON EVENING. THE NAM AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING
A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 60S EAST AND UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S WEST BUT THIS COULD BE
OPTIMISTIC IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. BIG DIFFERENCE
COMPARED TO THE PAST 4 DAYS IS THE FACT THAT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
BE MUCH WEAKER AND THE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FASTER. CANNOT RULE
OUT SHOWERS MONDAY GIVEN COOL 500MB TEMPS AND THE UPPER LOW NEARLY.
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN...EXPECT THE CHANCES TO BE LOW BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND HAVE OPTED TO GO 20
POPS MON.

LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO SUMMER FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DAYS 4-7. HEIGHTS WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR
BROAD S-SW FLOW BRINGING 850MB TEMPS TO NEAR 20C. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW FAST IT WARMS UP WITH THE ECMWF BEING 12-24 HOURS SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. SINCE THE GFS LOOKS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINING THE +20C
LINE NORTH...AND GIVEN THAT THE 00Z RUN STRUGGLED WITH THE LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 80S SHOULD BE
COMMON ON THU AND HAVE OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING N OF THE AREA WED
AFTN/NIGHT...OPTED TO INCLUDE CHC POPS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS
FCST TO MOVE OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER IN PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THU AFTN...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE 30
POPS FOR THU AFTN-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PD. SOME LINGERING STRATOCU NEAR KSAW
COULD PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR BKN CIGS UNTIL 20Z.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KNOTS THROUGH THE FCST PD AND WAVES CALM TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

000
FXUS63 KDTX 031926
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

LAST GASP FROM THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW COMPLEX IS UNDERWAY WITH YET
ANOTHER CLOUD FILLED AFTERNOON.  SIGNS OF THE END OF THIS EPISODE
ARE ON THE DISTANT WESTERN HORIZON WHERE CLOUDS ARE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED.  TODAY/S CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN AIDED BY THE BRIEF INFLUX
OF SUN THIS MORNING IN COMBINATION WITH THERMAL TROUGHING IN THE
925-850MB LAYER.  AS THIS FEATURE EXITS STAGE RIGHT...EXPECT THE
CLOUD FIELD TO THIN AND THEN NEARLY DISSIPATE POST-DUSK.  HIGH
CLOUDS POISED OVER THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ADVANCE
EAST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP
BACK INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

115+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE WEST QUICKLY
FLATTENING...AS SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER
TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING/FOLDING OVER AND LOW LEVEL JET
VEERING OVER MISSOURI TONIGHT...LOOKING AT THE WARM
FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT TO
TRACK SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER JUST IN CASE THE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS A BIT
STRONGER AND 700 MB FGEN ZONE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH. WITH AT LEAST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AROUND (ESPECIALLY SOUTH)...TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY HOLD IN THE MID 70S...AND JUST USED THE MAV GUIDANCE...AS
CU RULES ALSO SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS AS WELL.

THE TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS FOR A BIT STRONGER
UPPER WAVE/FARTHER WEST WITH THE 500 MB LOW...WHICH INCREASES THE
CHANCE FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS BY SUNDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (-20 C AT 500 MB SWINGING
THROUGH LAKE HURON). DO FAVOR THE SLOWER NAM/CANADIAN TIMING OVER
THE GFS...AND WILL CARRY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT PERIOD...AS SHOWALTER INDEX DOES DROP DOWN TO AROUND
ZERO. BANKING ON THE SKINNY CAPE/SUB -20 C EQL TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. BASED ON THE EVEN SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION
OF THE 12Z EUROPEAN...INCLUDED AN ISOLATED SHOWER MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF CWA INTO MONDAY AS WELL.

LOOKING AT A CONTINUED RELATIVELY COOL (70S) START TO THE WORK WEEK
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH...BUT A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEEKS END...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL LEAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AS PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.  WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SWING
TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONLY
TO RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY IN IT/S WAKE.  WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

AVIATION...

CLOUD FIELD IS BECOMING SATURATED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL
BOUNDARY GROWTH IN THE CONTEXT OF ONE LAST POCKET OF COLD AIR NEAR
4KFT.  EXPECTING A BROKEN DECK IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SITES WITH LOWER VFR CEILINGS AT THE DETROIT
TERMINALS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN IN THE POST-SUNSET HOURS ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY TO FACILITATE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  SEMI-GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WANE AS THE CLOUD SHIELD SETTLES IN AND
WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MANN
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......MANN
AVIATION.....MANN


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 031818 AAB
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
216 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL SEE THE SUN EVENTUALLY...EVENTUALLY. THE CLEARING LINE AT
00Z STRETCHED FROM SOUTHCENTRAL ONTARIO WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND HIBBING MINNESOTA...DOWN THROUGH
WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THIS LINE HAD MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH IN THE CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE OVER SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTY. ASSISTED BY A SECONDARY 500MB LOW OVER NORTHCENTRAL
ONTARIO...OUR PRIMARY LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BE
PUSHED INTO QUEBEC TODAY...WITH THIS NEW LOW SLIPPING NORTH AND EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OR ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
...AS WE RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BACK TO 10 TO 14C THROUGH TUESDAY.  NOT A LOT OF
OPPORTUNITIES TO ONE UP GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO IT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SMALLER SCALE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SMALL/ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS NEAR MNM.  HAVE ADDED ONLY 14
PERCENT...JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE BASED OFF
THE...REGWRF...RUC13...HIRESWRF.

WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
ADDITION MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...WITH THE NAM SPITTING
OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH QPF FROM SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  WILL DISCOUNT THE NAM...AND JUST GO WITH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON CU. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. LOOKING
INTO A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SANS COLD FRONT.  THE
ECMWF AND 18Z RUN OF THE GFS KEEP PRECIP JUST TO OUR EAST MONDAY.
WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMING IN FOR
MONDAY...WITH LATER SHIFTS LOOKING INTO IT A BIT CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PD. SOME LINGERING STRATOCU NEAR KSAW
COULD PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR BKN CIGS UNTIL 20Z.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. ONCE THIS HIGH SETTLES IN ON MONDAY...WINDS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LAKE.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...RJT

000
FXUS63 KAPX 031811
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MICHIGAN...DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1130 AM/...TODAY

ALMOST OUT OF THE MUCK...AS PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
GREAT LAKES FINALLY ROTATING INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
BUT ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...STILL QUITE A
BIT OF LOW STUFF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO CONTEND WITH AND HAVE
SEEN ANOTHER LOWERING OF CIGS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A FLARE-UP OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MICHIGAN.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION IS
RELATIVELY THINNER AT LEAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND EARLY JULY
SUN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUBSTANTIALLY ERODE REMAINING CLOUD COVER WEST
TO EAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
FORECAST IDEA HANGING ON TO CLOUDIER SKIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO HAS OPENED UP...THIS
WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH HAS BEEN STUCK OVER WESTERN
CANADA THIS WEEK TO ESCAPE EAST.  THIS WILL SET UP A LITTLE TRAIN OF
UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL MOSTLY ZIP BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  BUT THERE IS A PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS PRETTY PERSISTENT IN
SPINNING UP ANOTHER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...AND SENDING SOME
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE SUNDAY.  SUPPORT
FOR THIS IDEA COMES FROM THE 03/00Z RGEM RUN...WHICH DIGS ITS UPPER
LOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/FLATTER WITH VARIOUS WAVES...THOUGH A QUICK PEEK AT THE
INCOMING 03/00Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IDEA.  SO CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT THE GFS IDEA ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY
TOWARD ANOMALOUS UPPER LOWS.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY HEADED
TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE KEY...AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
JAMES BAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST
CONCERNS ARE FEW...MOSTLY DEALING WITH COOL LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.  GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT...NORTHERN MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS TO
THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY...AND COOL AS WELL
WITH INTERIOR LOCALES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S.

SATURDAY...SHOULD BE THE SAME STORY...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
CROSSING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER AND THE OHIO VALLEY.  SO INDEPENDENCE
DAY ITSELF SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE ONE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S.  WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT.  DIFFERENCES
IN EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...SO PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLOUDS
BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DRY FORECAST SHOULD HOLD UP.

EARLY EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IF THE IDEA OF AN
RENEWED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO PANS OUT FOR SUNDAY...SOME
INTERESTING FORECAST IMPLICATIONS ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  SPECIFICALLY...MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS (500MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE -16C TO -18C RANGE)...WHICH WOULD REALLY STEEPEN
UP LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
BE RELATIVELY DRY WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW.  SO THE
QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE CAN
HELP OUT.  BEST CHANCE MAY BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES AND UP
ALONG LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT THAT`S PROBABLY A BIT TOO
DETERMINISTIC THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS
TOWARD THIS IDEA.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY...STILL HAVE TIME TO
EVALUATE THIS...BUT WILL THROW IN SOME RAIN CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTH
AROUND UPPER LOW.  WILL TREND SUNDAY HIGHS DOWN JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBLE COOL AIR PUSH SUNDAY MORNING.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED GRIDS.

JPB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/

NORTHWEST FLOW COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SHALLOW OVER WATER
INSTABILITY DOING A NUMBER ON WINDS IN THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT NEARSHORE ZONE ON LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RECENT
GUSTS OVER 30KTS.  THIS WILL NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE FOR TODAY...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ONE ON WHITEFISH BAY/
ST. MARY`S RIVER AND PERHAPS ALONG THE REMAINING NORTHEAST LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES.  GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.  SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DEVELOP ON LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY...AND ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY.  LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES.

JPB

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 210 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

LAST SMALL SCALE CIRCULATION NOW MOVING THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL HOLD MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
BUT ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES...DRIER AIR AND MIXING WILL BEGIN TO
RAISE CIGS AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUD LAYERS WEST TO EAST AFTER 21Z OR
SO WITH ALL TERMINAL SITES BECOMING VFR BY 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

ADAM

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ347.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 031757
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
157 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S.  LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF LOWER MICHIGAN STARING
LATE TONIGHT...THEN ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S ONCE AGAIN.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WERE THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING TODAY...AND
WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN FROM THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

A BLANKET OF SC REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF CLEARING.  1000-850 RH PROGS SHOW A STEADY DRYING THROUGH
THE DAY.  IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH SUNSHINE IS
SEEN...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S AS THE SUN
DEVELOPS.  MAX READINGS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR TOWARD EVENING DUE TO
THE DELAYED CLEARING.

BY TONIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS MO WITH A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO ITS NORTH.  THE TREND IN THE MODELS
HAS BEEN TO MOVE THESE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THE UPPER JET
DOES MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE PCPN FURTHER NORTH.  INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND
MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.  HOWEVER LOOKING
UPSTREAM...PCPN WAS COMMONPLACE WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE OVER SD
OVERNIGHT.  WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW HALF
OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WAVE MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SO I BELIEVE ANY
SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTHERN LOWER BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS BEGINS TO FILTER IN.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR
SOUTH OF I-96 TOWARD EVENING...WHILE THE NORTHERN CWA BECOMES MOSTLY
CLEAR.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE U.P. ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN CWA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WITH DRY NW FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AS MICHIGAN WILL BE WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTED EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BY MID WEEK BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. GFS BRINGS
MORE MOISTURE IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE AND
SUGGESTS SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OR THUNDER BY WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH ANY RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS NO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY SO MODEL
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(157 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
NO MAJOR AVIATION ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AND MOVING OUT AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE BECOMING
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INLAND...WITH LAKE INFLUENCE PREVENTING CLOUDS
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WE EXPECT THE CLEARING ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO
MOVE IN ACROSS KGRR AND KAZO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CLOUD COVER INLAND WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARD 23Z OR
SO AS DIURNAL COMPONENT IS LOST.

FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT IS NOT ZERO WITH A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE AND WINDS BECOMING RATHER LIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 18Z SAT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. SOME
LIGHT PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LOOKS
LIMITED. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR SRN AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE A CHOPPY SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AGAIN
TODAY.  HOWEVER THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SO EXPECT 2-3 FOOT WAVES SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN
THROUGH MID DAY...WITH A SUBSIDING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
TOWARD EVENING.  WINDS LIGHTEN UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND BECOME
OFFSHORE WHICH SO RESULT IN CALMING WAVES.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
START THE DAY ON THE 4TH...BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON.  WINDS OVERNIGHT ON THE 4TH WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD MAINLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    OSTUNO
AVIATION:     NJJ
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KDTX 031726
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...

CLOUD FIELD IS BECOMING SATURATED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL
BOUNDARY GROWTH IN THE CONTEXT OF ONE LAST POCKET OF COLD AIR NEAR
4KFT.  EXPECTING A BROKEN DECK IN THE HIGH MVFR RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SITES WITH LOWER VFR CEILINGS AT THE DETROIT
TERMINALS.  THE CLOUDS WILL THIN IN THE POST-SUNSET HOURS ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY TO FACILITATE
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.  SEMI-GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WANE AS THE CLOUD SHIELD SETTLES IN AND
WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY

LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT VORTICITY CENTER
RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...WILL
ALL BUT END BY DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE A TOKEN MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
THE THUMB FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST TO
SOME DEGREE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CENTER ROTATES THROUGH NEW YORK...THE
WHOLE UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST. WHILE SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM MUCH OF THE
DAY...DO EXPECT A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND AS MORE SUNSHINE BREAKS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THE COOLEST OF THE AIR SHIFTS ON
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.

WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SLOWER IMPROVEMENT OVER THE THUMB...CLOSEST
TO THIS FEATURE...WILL SET UP A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE
FORECAST...FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE THUMB TO THE MID/UPPER
70S FROM DETROIT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE 1ST
WEEK OF JULY...BUT CERTAINLY BETTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

LONG TERM...

00Z GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM...BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ESPECIALLY PAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL PICK UP THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THAT GETS A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE BOOST TODAY. THAT
SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS AND SMALL POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PAST THAT...THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELONGATED TROF OVER CANADA AND
ANY 500 MB DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS TROF. WATER VAPOR INDICATED THAT
SHORTWAVES OVER SW HUDSON BAY...WESTERN ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...AND FINALLY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THESE SHORTWAVES WELL AND EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. FOR ONE...THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON WATER VAPOR DID LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN ANY OF
THE MODELS INITIALIZED. WHILE MOST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL STAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...MAY STILL INFLUENCE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ONTARIO 500 MB LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT WILL JUST HAVE A FEW
DEPARTING SC THIS EVENING AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE ON SE MI...THEN WILL HAVE SOME THICK CS LATE TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT RANGE SHORTWAVE.

GFS IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE 4TH
HOLIDAY...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FEATURES. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT NAM...AND WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE...EXPECT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP NE INTO FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS A 100+ KT JET THAT TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN LAKES TO
PLACE SE MI ON THE EDGE OF SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE. THERE IS ALSO SOME
500 MB FGEN AND DEFORMATION...BUT LITTLE ELSE INCLUDING ALMOST NO
INSTABILITY. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MONROE AND LENAWEE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. WILL MAKE A
MOVE TOWARD GUIDANCE TEMPS ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE
00Z TAKES US WITH AROUND 70 FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NORTH HALF WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...BUT EXPECT SOME SUN TO WARM THE SOUTH HALF ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES.

INDICATION OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE PASSING FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT WITH THAT SYSTEM. THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. STILL WILL ALL THAT SAID WOULDNT EXPECT MUCH
BETTER THAN A 20 OR 30 POP WITH THAT SYSTEM...AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED ABOVE WILL OPT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NEXT WEEK...DESPITE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN 00Z RUNS. GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK
STILL ON TARGET WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MID WEEK
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE.

MARINE...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CARRY DRY AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20
KNOTS BUT INSTABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LEAD TO WAVES HIGH ENOUGH
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM THE TIP OF THE THUMB TO PORT SANILAC
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     SANILAC...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MANN
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....RBP
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 031531
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MICHIGAN...DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1130 AM/...TODAY

ALMOST OUT OF THE MUCK...AS PESKY UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
GREAT LAKES FINALLY ROTATING INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
BUT ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...STILL QUITE A
BIT OF LOW STUFF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO CONTEND WITH AND HAVE
SEEN ANOTHER LOWERING OF CIGS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A FLARE-UP OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MICHIGAN.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION IS
RELATIVELY THINNER AT LEAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND EARLY JULY
SUN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUBSTANTIALLY ERODE REMAINING CLOUD COVER WEST
TO EAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
FORECAST IDEA HANGING ON TO CLOUDIER SKIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NE
LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS NE LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDINGLY.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO HAS OPENED UP...THIS
WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH HAS BEEN STUCK OVER WESTERN
CANADA THIS WEEK TO ESCAPE EAST.  THIS WILL SET UP A LITTLE TRAIN OF
UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL MOSTLY ZIP BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  BUT THERE IS A PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS PRETTY PERSISTENT IN
SPINNING UP ANOTHER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...AND SENDING SOME
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE SUNDAY.  SUPPORT
FOR THIS IDEA COMES FROM THE 03/00Z RGEM RUN...WHICH DIGS ITS UPPER
LOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/FLATTER WITH VARIOUS WAVES...THOUGH A QUICK PEEK AT THE
INCOMING 03/00Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IDEA.  SO CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT THE GFS IDEA ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY
TOWARD ANOMALOUS UPPER LOWS.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY HEADED
TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE KEY...AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
JAMES BAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST
CONCERNS ARE FEW...MOSTLY DEALING WITH COOL LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.  GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT...NORTHERN MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS TO
THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY...AND COOL AS WELL
WITH INTERIOR LOCALES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S.

SATURDAY...SHOULD BE THE SAME STORY...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
CROSSING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER AND THE OHIO VALLEY.  SO INDEPENDENCE
DAY ITSELF SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE ONE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S.  WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT.  DIFFERENCES
IN EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...SO PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLOUDS
BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DRY FORECAST SHOULD HOLD UP.

EARLY EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IF THE IDEA OF AN
RENEWED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO PANS OUT FOR SUNDAY...SOME
INTERESTING FORECAST IMPLICATIONS ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  SPECIFICALLY...MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS (500MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE -16C TO -18C RANGE)...WHICH WOULD REALLY STEEPEN
UP LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
BE RELATIVELY DRY WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW.  SO THE
QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE CAN
HELP OUT.  BEST CHANCE MAY BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES AND UP
ALONG LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT THAT`S PROBABLY A BIT TOO
DETERMINISTIC THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS
TOWARD THIS IDEA.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY...STILL HAVE TIME TO
EVALUATE THIS...BUT WILL THROW IN SOME RAIN CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTH
AROUND UPPER LOW.  WILL TREND SUNDAY HIGHS DOWN JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBLE COOL AIR PUSH SUNDAY MORNING.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED GRIDS.

JPB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/

NORTHWEST FLOW COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SHALLOW OVER WATER
INSTABILITY DOING A NUMBER ON WINDS IN THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT NEARSHORE ZONE ON LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RECENT
GUSTS OVER 30KTS.  THIS WILL NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE FOR TODAY...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ONE ON WHITEFISH BAY/
ST. MARY`S RIVER AND PERHAPS ALONG THE REMAINING NORTHEAST LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES.  GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.  SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DEVELOP ON LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY...AND ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY.  LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES.

JPB

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 650 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT AND BREAK UP. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ347.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 031152
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S.  LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF LOWER MICHIGAN STARING
LATE TONIGHT...THEN ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S ONCE AGAIN.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WERE THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING TODAY...AND
WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN FROM THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

A BLANKET OF SC REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF CLEARING.  1000-850 RH PROGS SHOW A STEADY DRYING THROUGH
THE DAY.  IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH SUNSHINE IS
SEEN...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S AS THE SUN
DEVELOPS.  MAX READINGS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR TOWARD EVENING DUE TO
THE DELAYED CLEARING.

BY TONIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS MO WITH A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO ITS NORTH.  THE TREND IN THE MODELS
HAS BEEN TO MOVE THESE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THE UPPER JET
DOES MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE PCPN FURTHER NORTH.  INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND
MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.  HOWEVER LOOKING
UPSTREAM...PCPN WAS COMMONPLACE WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE OVER SD
OVERNIGHT.  WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW HALF
OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WAVE MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SO I BELIEVE ANY
SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTHERN LOWER BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS BEGINS TO FILTER IN.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR
SOUTH OF I-96 TOWARD EVENING...WHILE THE NORTHERN CWA BECOMES MOSTLY
CLEAR.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE U.P. ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN CWA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WITH DRY NW FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AS MICHIGAN WILL BE WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTED EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BY MID WEEK BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. GFS BRINGS
MORE MOISTURE IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE AND
SUGGESTS SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OR THUNDER BY WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH ANY RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS NO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY SO MODEL
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(752 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND BREAK UP FROM THIS
MORNING  AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING BY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUT SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
FROM MKG TO AZO. LEFT THESE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE A CHOPPY SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AGAIN
TODAY.  HOWEVER THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SO EXPECT 2-3 FOOT WAVES SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN
THROUGH MID DAY...WITH A SUBSIDING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
TOWARD EVENING.  WINDS LIGHTEN UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND BECOME
OFFSHORE WHICH SO RESULT IN CALMING WAVES.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
START THE DAY ON THE 4TH...BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON.  WINDS OVERNIGHT ON THE 4TH WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD MAINLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    OSTUNO
AVIATION:     OSTUNO
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KMQT 031121 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL SEE THE SUN EVENTUALLY...EVENTUALLY. THE CLEARING LINE AT
00Z STRETCHED FROM SOUTHCENTRAL ONTARIO WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND HIBBING MINNESOTA...DOWN THROUGH
WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THIS LINE HAD MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH IN THE CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE OVER SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTY. ASSISTED BY A SECONDARY 500MB LOW OVER NORTHCENTRAL
ONTARIO...OUR PRIMARY LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BE
PUSHED INTO QUEBEC TODAY...WITH THIS NEW LOW SLIPPING NORTH AND EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OR ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
...AS WE RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BACK TO 10 TO 14C THROUGH TUESDAY.  NOT A LOT OF
OPPORTUNITIES TO ONE UP GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO IT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SMALLER SCALE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SMALL/ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS NEAR MNM.  HAVE ADDED ONLY 14
PERCENT...JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE BASED OFF
THE...REGWRF...RUC13...HIRESWRF.

WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
ADDITION MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...WITH THE NAM SPITTING
OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH QPF FROM SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  WILL DISCOUNT THE NAM...AND JUST GO WITH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON CU. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. LOOKING
INTO A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SANS COLD FRONT.  THE
ECMWF AND 18Z RUN OF THE GFS KEEP PRECIP JUST TO OUR EAST MONDAY.
WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMING IN FOR
MONDAY...WITH LATER SHIFTS LOOKING INTO IT A BIT CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER UPPER MI CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND THE MAIN LOW ALLOWED
FOR -DZ AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THIS
FEATURE NEARLY THROUGH THE AREA IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY
IMPROVE BY 14Z THIS MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. ONCE THIS HIGH SETTLES IN ON MONDAY...WINDS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LAKE.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KF
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJT

000
FXUS63 KGRR 031115
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
715 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S.  LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF LOWER MICHIGAN STARING
LATE TONIGHT...THEN ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S ONCE AGAIN.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WERE THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING TODAY...AND
WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN FROM THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

A BLANKET OF SC REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF CLEARING.  1000-850 RH PROGS SHOW A STEADY DRYING THROUGH
THE DAY.  IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH SUNSHINE IS
SEEN...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S AS THE SUN
DEVELOPS.  MAX READINGS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR TOWARD EVENING DUE TO
THE DELAYED CLEARING.

BY TONIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS MO WITH A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO ITS NORTH.  THE TREND IN THE MODELS
HAS BEEN TO MOVE THESE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THE UPPER JET
DOES MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE PCPN FURTHER NORTH.  INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND
MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.  HOWEVER LOOKING
UPSTREAM...PCPN WAS COMMONPLACE WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE OVER SD
OVERNIGHT.  WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW HALF
OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WAVE MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SO I BELIEVE ANY
SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTHERN LOWER BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS BEGINS TO FILTER IN.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR
SOUTH OF I-96 TOWARD EVENING...WHILE THE NORTHERN CWA BECOMES MOSTLY
CLEAR.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE U.P. ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN CWA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WITH DRY NW FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AS MICHIGAN WILL BE WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTED EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BY MID WEEK BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. GFS BRINGS
MORE MOISTURE IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE AND
SUGGESTS SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OR THUNDER BY WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH ANY RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS NO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY SO MODEL
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(715 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THING AND BREAK UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING BY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUT SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING FROM MKG TO AZO.
&&

.MARINE...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE A CHOPPY SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AGAIN
TODAY.  HOWEVER THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SO EXPECT 2-3 FOOT WAVES SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN
THROUGH MID DAY...WITH A SUBSIDING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
TOWARD EVENING.  WINDS LIGHTEN UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND BECOME
OFFSHORE WHICH SO RESULT IN CALMING WAVES.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
START THE DAY ON THE 4TH...BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON.  WINDS OVERNIGHT ON THE 4TH WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD MAINLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    OSTUNO
AVIATION:     OSTUNO
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KDTX 031058
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
658 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009


.AVIATION...

MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE FORECAST...BUT EXPECT BKN/OVC
CONDITIONS TO BECOME SCT/BKN BY MIDDAY...WITH CEILING HEIGHTS MIXING
UP TO 3500-4500 FEET WITH TIME. ANY REMAIN CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP BY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE AREA CONTINUES A
SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN SLACKENING LATE IN
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...SO EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE...AND BECOME CALM TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY

LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT VORTICITY CENTER
RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...WILL
ALL BUT END BY DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE A TOKEN MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
THE THUMB FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST TO
SOME DEGREE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CENTER ROTATES THROUGH NEW YORK...THE
WHOLE UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST. WHILE SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM MUCH OF THE
DAY...DO EXPECT A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND AS MORE SUNSHINE BREAKS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THE COOLEST OF THE AIR SHIFTS ON
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.

WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SLOWER IMPROVEMENT OVER THE THUMB...CLOSEST
TO THIS FEATURE...WILL SET UP A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE
FORECAST...FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE THUMB TO THE MID/UPPER
70S FROM DETROIT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE 1ST
WEEK OF JULY...BUT CERTAINLY BETTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

LONG TERM...

00Z GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM...BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ESPECIALLY PAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL PICK UP THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THAT GETS A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE BOOST TODAY. THAT
SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS AND SMALL POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PAST THAT...THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELONGATED TROF OVER CANADA AND
ANY 500 MB DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS TROF. WATER VAPOR INDICATED THAT
SHORTWAVES OVER SW HUDSON BAY...WESTERN ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...AND FINALLY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THESE SHORTWAVES WELL AND EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. FOR ONE...THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON WATER VAPOR DID LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN ANY OF
THE MODELS INITIALIZED. WHILE MOST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL STAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...MAY STILL INFLUENCE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ONTARIO 500 MB LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT WILL JUST HAVE A FEW
DEPARTING SC THIS EVENING AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE ON SE MI...THEN WILL HAVE SOME THICK CS LATE TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT RANGE SHORTWAVE.

GFS IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE 4TH
HOLIDAY...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FEATURES. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT NAM...AND WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE...EXPECT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP NE INTO FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS A 100+ KT JET THAT TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN LAKES TO
PLACE SE MI ON THE EDGE OF SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE. THERE IS ALSO SOME
500 MB FGEN AND DEFORMATION...BUT LITTLE ELSE INCLUDING ALMOST NO
INSTABILITY. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MONROE AND LENAWEE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. WILL MAKE A
MOVE TOWARD GUIDANCE TEMPS ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE
00Z TAKES US WITH AROUND 70 FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NORTH HALF WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...BUT EXPECT SOME SUN TO WARM THE SOUTH HALF ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES.

INDICATION OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE PASSING FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT WITH THAT SYSTEM. THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. STILL WILL ALL THAT SAID WOULDNT EXPECT MUCH
BETTER THAN A 20 OR 30 POP WITH THAT SYSTEM...AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED ABOVE WILL OPT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NEXT WEEK...DESPITE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN 00Z RUNS. GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK
STILL ON TARGET WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MID WEEK
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE.

MARINE...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CARRY DRY AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20
KNOTS BUT INSTABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LEAD TO WAVES HIGH ENOUGH
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM THE TIP OF THE THUMB TO PORT SANILAC
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     SANILAC...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....RBP
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 031051
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
651 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MICHIGAN...DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/...TODAY

UPPER LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THIS WEEK
FINALLY FILLING AND OPENING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING AROUND THIS CIRCULATION DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO PA/NY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO...RUNNING INTO DEFORMATION ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE WAVE TO ITS EAST.  MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN OUT PER 00Z SOUNDINGS/IR IMAGERY...THOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 850MB KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MI EARLY THIS MORNING.  MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM CANADA...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE.  THERE IS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO/NORTHWEST QUEBEC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO EASTERN UPPER.

SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL GET NUDGED SOUTHEAST TODAY AS
IT CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT STRONG UPPER CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONT
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK WILL KEEP
MID LEVELS DRY.  CURRENT LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO A CU/SC DECK
(PROBABLY LATEST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER).  CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER WITH UPSLOPE FLOW.  KMQT 88D HAS BEEN SHOWING A FAIR BIT OF
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -DZ/-RA REPORTED
AT CMX/SAW/IMT...WE`LL SEE IF ANY OF THIS TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT
NORTHWEST LOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
GOOD BIT OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT DRIVING THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL.  WILL DECIDE AT PRESS TIME HOW TO HANDLE THIS.  AFTERNOON
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...COULD BE A BIT
WARMER IN SPOTS THAT CAN BREAK INTO SUN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO HAS OPENED UP...THIS
WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH HAS BEEN STUCK OVER WESTERN
CANADA THIS WEEK TO ESCAPE EAST.  THIS WILL SET UP A LITTLE TRAIN OF
UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL MOSTLY ZIP BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  BUT THERE IS A PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS PRETTY PERSISTENT IN
SPINNING UP ANOTHER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...AND SENDING SOME
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE SUNDAY.  SUPPORT
FOR THIS IDEA COMES FROM THE 03/00Z RGEM RUN...WHICH DIGS ITS UPPER
LOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/FLATTER WITH VARIOUS WAVES...THOUGH A QUICK PEEK AT THE
INCOMING 03/00Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IDEA.  SO CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT THE GFS IDEA ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY
TOWARD ANOMALOUS UPPER LOWS.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY HEADED
TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE KEY...AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
JAMES BAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST
CONCERNS ARE FEW...MOSTLY DEALING WITH COOL LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.  GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT...NORTHERN MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS TO
THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY...AND COOL AS WELL
WITH INTERIOR LOCALES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S.

SATURDAY...SHOULD BE THE SAME STORY...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
CROSSING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER AND THE OHIO VALLEY.  SO INDEPENDENCE
DAY ITSELF SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE ONE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S.  WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT.  DIFFERENCES
IN EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...SO PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLOUDS
BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DRY FORECAST SHOULD HOLD UP.

EARLY EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IF THE IDEA OF AN
RENEWED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO PANS OUT FOR SUNDAY...SOME
INTERESTING FORECAST IMPLICATIONS ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  SPECIFICALLY...MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS (500MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE -16C TO -18C RANGE)...WHICH WOULD REALLY STEEPEN
UP LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
BE RELATIVELY DRY WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW.  SO THE
QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE CAN
HELP OUT.  BEST CHANCE MAY BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES AND UP
ALONG LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT THAT`S PROBABLY A BIT TOO
DETERMINISTIC THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS
TOWARD THIS IDEA.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY...STILL HAVE TIME TO
EVALUATE THIS...BUT WILL THROW IN SOME RAIN CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTH
AROUND UPPER LOW.  WILL TREND SUNDAY HIGHS DOWN JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBLE COOL AIR PUSH SUNDAY MORNING.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED GRIDS.

JPB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/

NORTHWEST FLOW COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SHALLOW OVER WATER
INSTABILITY DOING A NUMBER ON WINDS IN THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT NEARSHORE ZONE ON LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RECENT
GUSTS OVER 30KTS.  THIS WILL NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE FOR TODAY...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ONE ON WHITEFISH BAY/
ST. MARY`S RIVER AND PERHAPS ALONG THE REMAINING NORTHEAST LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES.  GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.  SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DEVELOP ON LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY...AND ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY.  LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES.

JPB

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 650 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT AND BREAK UP. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ347.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KMQT 030843
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
444 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL SEE THE SUN EVENTUALLY...EVENTUALLY. THE CLEARING LINE AT
00Z STRETCHED FROM SOUTHCENTRAL ONTARIO WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO
NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND HIBBING MINNESOTA...DOWN THROUGH
WESTERN WISCONSIN.  THIS LINE HAD MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH IN THE CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE OVER SCHOOLCRAFT
COUNTY. ASSISTED BY A SECONDARY 500MB LOW OVER NORTHCENTRAL
ONTARIO...OUR PRIMARY LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BE
PUSHED INTO QUEBEC TODAY...WITH THIS NEW LOW SLIPPING NORTH AND EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OR ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
...AS WE RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND BACK TO 10 TO 14C THROUGH TUESDAY.  NOT A LOT OF
OPPORTUNITIES TO ONE UP GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO IT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SMALLER SCALE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SMALL/ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS NEAR MNM.  HAVE ADDED ONLY 14
PERCENT...JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE BASED OFF
THE...REGWRF...RUC13...HIRESWRF.

WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
ADDITION MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...WITH THE NAM SPITTING
OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH QPF FROM SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  WILL DISCOUNT THE NAM...AND JUST GO WITH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON CU. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER. LOOKING
INTO A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SANS COLD FRONT.  THE
ECMWF AND 18Z RUN OF THE GFS KEEP PRECIP JUST TO OUR EAST MONDAY.
WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TIMING IN FOR
MONDAY...WITH LATER SHIFTS LOOKING INTO IT A BIT CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER
UPPER MI THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AND WEAKEN. WITH
ITS DEPARTURE...CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT TO THE W AND NW ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING E AND SE INTO UPPER MI. THUS...MVFR CIGS AT KCMX/KSAW
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUDS THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE MORNING.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BEFORE SUNRISE (MORE LIKELY AT KCMX)...FOG MAY
DEVELOP...REDUCING VIS TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
WELL BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. ONCE THIS HIGH SETTLES IN ON MONDAY...WINDS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LAKE.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...RJT

000
FXUS63 KAPX 030833
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
433 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MICHIGAN...DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.

MSB

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/...TODAY

UPPER LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE GREAT LAKES MUCH OF THIS WEEK
FINALLY FILLING AND OPENING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING AROUND THIS CIRCULATION DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO PA/NY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO...RUNNING INTO DEFORMATION ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE WAVE TO ITS EAST.  MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN OUT PER 00Z SOUNDINGS/IR IMAGERY...THOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 850MB KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MI EARLY THIS MORNING.  MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM CANADA...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE.  THERE IS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST ONTARIO/NORTHWEST QUEBEC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO EASTERN UPPER.

SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL GET NUDGED SOUTHEAST TODAY AS
IT CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT STRONG UPPER CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONT
SIDE OF AN APPROACHING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK WILL KEEP
MID LEVELS DRY.  CURRENT LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON INTO A CU/SC DECK
(PROBABLY LATEST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER).  CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LOWER WITH UPSLOPE FLOW.  KMQT 88D HAS BEEN SHOWING A FAIR BIT OF
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -DZ/-RA REPORTED
AT CMX/SAW/IMT...WE`LL SEE IF ANY OF THIS TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT
NORTHWEST LOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
GOOD BIT OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT DRIVING THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
WELL.  WILL DECIDE AT PRESS TIME HOW TO HANDLE THIS.  AFTERNOON
HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...COULD BE A BIT
WARMER IN SPOTS THAT CAN BREAK INTO SUN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

NOW THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO HAS OPENED UP...THIS
WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH HAS BEEN STUCK OVER WESTERN
CANADA THIS WEEK TO ESCAPE EAST.  THIS WILL SET UP A LITTLE TRAIN OF
UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL MOSTLY ZIP BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  BUT THERE IS A PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS PRETTY PERSISTENT IN
SPINNING UP ANOTHER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...AND SENDING SOME
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE SUNDAY.  SUPPORT
FOR THIS IDEA COMES FROM THE 03/00Z RGEM RUN...WHICH DIGS ITS UPPER
LOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/FLATTER WITH VARIOUS WAVES...THOUGH A QUICK PEEK AT THE
INCOMING 03/00Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS IDEA.  SO CAN`T
TOTALLY RULE OUT THE GFS IDEA ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR RECENT PROPENSITY
TOWARD ANOMALOUS UPPER LOWS.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY HEADED
TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE KEY...AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
JAMES BAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST
CONCERNS ARE FEW...MOSTLY DEALING WITH COOL LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.  GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT...NORTHERN MI WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS TO
THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND DRY...AND COOL AS WELL
WITH INTERIOR LOCALES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S.

SATURDAY...SHOULD BE THE SAME STORY...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
CROSSING FAR SOUTHERN LOWER AND THE OHIO VALLEY.  SO INDEPENDENCE
DAY ITSELF SHAPING UP TO BE A NICE ONE...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S.  WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE A
BIT GUSTY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT.  DIFFERENCES
IN EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...SO PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLOUDS
BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DRY FORECAST SHOULD HOLD UP.

EARLY EXTENDED RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...IF THE IDEA OF AN
RENEWED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO PANS OUT FOR SUNDAY...SOME
INTERESTING FORECAST IMPLICATIONS ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  SPECIFICALLY...MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS (500MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE -16C TO -18C RANGE)...WHICH WOULD REALLY STEEPEN
UP LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
BE RELATIVELY DRY WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW.  SO THE
QUESTION FOR SUNDAY IS WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE CAN
HELP OUT.  BEST CHANCE MAY BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES AND UP
ALONG LAKE HURON SHORELINE...BUT THAT`S PROBABLY A BIT TOO
DETERMINISTIC THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS
TOWARD THIS IDEA.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY...STILL HAVE TIME TO
EVALUATE THIS...BUT WILL THROW IN SOME RAIN CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTH
AROUND UPPER LOW.  WILL TREND SUNDAY HIGHS DOWN JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBLE COOL AIR PUSH SUNDAY MORNING.
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED GRIDS.

JPB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 433 AM/

NORTHWEST FLOW COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND SHALLOW OVER WATER
INSTABILITY DOING A NUMBER ON WINDS IN THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE
LIGHT NEARSHORE ZONE ON LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RECENT
GUSTS OVER 30KTS.  THIS WILL NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE FOR TODAY...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ONE ON WHITEFISH BAY/
ST. MARY`S RIVER AND PERHAPS ALONG THE REMAINING NORTHEAST LOWER
NEARSHORE ZONES.  GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.  SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DEVELOP ON LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF
LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY...AND ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF THUNDER BAY.  LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE
COMPONENTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES.

JPB

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 130 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURNING TO ALL OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ347.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 030807
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S.  LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF LOWER MICHIGAN STARING
LATE TONIGHT...THEN ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.  ELSEWHERE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S ONCE AGAIN.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WERE THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING TODAY...AND
WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN FROM THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

A BLANKET OF SC REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF CLEARING.  1000-850 RH PROGS SHOW A STEADY DRYING THROUGH
THE DAY.  IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH SUNSHINE IS
SEEN...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S AS THE SUN
DEVELOPS.  MAX READINGS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR TOWARD EVENING DUE TO
THE DELAYED CLEARING.

BY TONIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS MO WITH A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO ITS NORTH.  THE TREND IN THE MODELS
HAS BEEN TO MOVE THESE SHOWERS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THE UPPER JET
DOES MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE PCPN FURTHER NORTH.  INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND
MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.  HOWEVER LOOKING
UPSTREAM...PCPN WAS COMMONPLACE WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE OVER SD
OVERNIGHT.  WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW HALF
OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WAVE MOVES SE INTO OHIO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SO I BELIEVE ANY
SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTHERN LOWER BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS A DRIER
CANADIAN AIR MASS BEGINS TO FILTER IN.  SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR
SOUTH OF I-96 TOWARD EVENING...WHILE THE NORTHERN CWA BECOMES MOSTLY
CLEAR.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE U.P. ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN CWA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WITH DRY NW FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AS MICHIGAN WILL BE WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPICTED EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BY MID WEEK BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. GFS BRINGS
MORE MOISTURE IN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE AND
SUGGESTS SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OR THUNDER BY WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH ANY RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS NO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY SO MODEL
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(1155 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)

SOME LARGE BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT NEAR
US-131 (AROUND 7 PM). THAT BREAK HAS ACTUALLY GROWN AND MOVED INLAND
FARTHER. SINCE THE CEILINGS ARE LOWER NORTH OF THE GRR CWA AT 11
PM... I BELIEVE THE LOWER CEILING WILL MOVE IN BY 3 AM ACROSS THE
CWA.

OVERALL THROUGH...I STILL BELIEVE WHAT I WROTE EARLIER...THAT
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO REALLY CLEAR... WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE JET
AXIS TO PASS OVERHEAD. THAT HAPPENS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO I DO
BELIEVE SOME CLEARING COULD TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 135 KNOT
JET CORE THAT COMES OVER SW MICHIGAN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. THAT
WOULD RESULT IN MID CLOUDS. THUS...SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY BUT THEN LAYER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE A CHOPPY SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE AGAIN
TODAY.  HOWEVER THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SO EXPECT 2-3 FOOT WAVES SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN
THROUGH MID DAY...WITH A SUBSIDING TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
TOWARD EVENING.  WINDS LIGHTEN UP EVEN MORE TONIGHT AND BECOME
OFFSHORE WHICH SO RESULT IN CALMING WAVES.  OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
START THE DAY ON THE 4TH...BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON.  WINDS OVERNIGHT ON THE 4TH WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(407 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.  ANY RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
SHOULD MAINLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    OSTUNO
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KDTX 030709
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
309 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY

LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT VORTICITY CENTER
RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...WILL
ALL BUT END BY DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE A TOKEN MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN
THE THUMB FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST TO
SOME DEGREE...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT CENTER ROTATES THROUGH NEW YORK...THE
WHOLE UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST. WHILE SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM MUCH OF THE
DAY...DO EXPECT A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND AS MORE SUNSHINE BREAKS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THE COOLEST OF THE AIR SHIFTS ON
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND.

WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SLOWER IMPROVEMENT OVER THE THUMB...CLOSEST
TO THIS FEATURE...WILL SET UP A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE
FORECAST...FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE THUMB TO THE MID/UPPER
70S FROM DETROIT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE 1ST
WEEK OF JULY...BUT CERTAINLY BETTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

00Z GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM...BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ESPECIALLY PAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL PICK UP THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THAT GETS A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE BOOST TODAY. THAT
SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...BUT WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS AND SMALL POP IN THE FAR
SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PAST THAT...THE MAIN INFLUENCE FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER FOR SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELONGATED TROF OVER CANADA AND
ANY 500 MB DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS TROF. WATER VAPOR INDICATED THAT
SHORTWAVES OVER SW HUDSON BAY...WESTERN ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...AND FINALLY OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT
ANY OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THESE SHORTWAVES WELL AND EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. FOR ONE...THE SHORTWAVE
NEAR LK WINNIPEG ON WATER VAPOR DID LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN ANY OF
THE MODELS INITIALIZED. WHILE MOST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL STAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...MAY STILL INFLUENCE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER ONTARIO 500 MB LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...TONIGHT WILL JUST HAVE A FEW
DEPARTING SC THIS EVENING AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY LOSES ITS
INFLUENCE ON SE MI...THEN WILL HAVE SOME THICK CS LATE TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT RANGE SHORTWAVE.

GFS IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE FOR THE 4TH
HOLIDAY...AND ITS ASSOCIATED FEATURES. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT NAM...AND WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND WEDGE OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE...EXPECT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIP NE INTO FORECAST
AREA. THERE IS A 100+ KT JET THAT TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN LAKES TO
PLACE SE MI ON THE EDGE OF SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE. THERE IS ALSO SOME
500 MB FGEN AND DEFORMATION...BUT LITTLE ELSE INCLUDING ALMOST NO
INSTABILITY. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MONROE AND LENAWEE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. WILL MAKE A
MOVE TOWARD GUIDANCE TEMPS ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE
00Z TAKES US WITH AROUND 70 FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NORTH HALF WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...BUT EXPECT SOME SUN TO WARM THE SOUTH HALF ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES.

INDICATION OF A BETTER SHORTWAVE PASSING FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE
LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT A WEAK COLD
FRONT WITH THAT SYSTEM. THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. STILL WILL ALL THAT SAID WOULDNT EXPECT MUCH
BETTER THAN A 20 OR 30 POP WITH THAT SYSTEM...AND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY EXPRESSED ABOVE WILL OPT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD NEXT WEEK...DESPITE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN 00Z RUNS. GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK
STILL ON TARGET WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MID WEEK
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE.

&&

.MARINE...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CARRY DRY AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20
KNOTS BUT INSTABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL LEAD TO WAVES HIGH ENOUGH
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM THE TIP OF THE THUMB TO PORT SANILAC
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1155 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.  THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK.  CEILINGS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  BKN STRATO-CU WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.  LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL TEND TO LIFT INTO LOW VFR BY THIS
TIME AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY SCOURS OUT.  SLOW CLEARING
TREND BY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     SANILAC...FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....RBP
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 030523 AAB
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE BLOCKING HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME. A DEEP LOW IS OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY BLANKETING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LARGE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK STATIONARY
RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
SEPARATES THE TWO LOWS. NAM/GFS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH A
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES OVER THE U.P.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY)... ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT

MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PROVINCE ON
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO POCKETS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING DOWN THE
LEE OF THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN THE DEEPER GFS WOULD
KEEP THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ANY PCPN NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS EAST MAINLY THIS EVENING. WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR LOW RELAXES GRIP ON UPR LAKES FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BUT YET ANOTHER UPR LOW IS FCST BY DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES TO DEVELOP FM ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPR GREAT LAKES
BY NEXT MONDAY.

4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES FM THE LARGE SCALE LOOK SLIM AS A
DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT BTWN EXITING TROUGH AND FLAT RIDGE OVR
WESTERN CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY IS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF LK SUPERIOR AND THAT IS WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTN
POP-UP SHRA/TSRA. SFC RIDGE IS PROGGED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH RESULTS IN LK BREEZES BOTH ON THE FOURTH AND ON SUNDAY. SEEMS
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY LK BREEZE SHRA/TSRA IS SUNDAY OVR THE
EAST CENTRAL CWA AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTH AND PREVAILING
WRLY FLOW AT 925MB MEETS UP WITH THE LK SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZES...MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SINCE H20 TEMPS ON
LK MICHIGAN ARE IN THE 60S...THEN THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALLY HIGHER DWPNTS/SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE LK
MICHIGAN LK BREEZE. NAM SHOWS A LOT OF QPF SUN AFTN OVR THE EAST BUT
ITS SFC DWPNTS OVR ALL THE EAST ARE AROUND 60F WHICH RESULTS IN
SBCAPES TOWARD 1000J/KG...LIKELY TOO HIGH. NO ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE POPS/QPF HARD AND EVEN THE SREF (WHICH HAS MANY NAM
MEMBERS WITHIN IT) SHOWS A VERY LOW PROB OF ANY QPF. COORD WITH THE
APX OFFICE AND WE WILL LET THE DRY FCST CONTINUE. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE A BIT BLO NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES AND WELL INTO THE 70S
INLAND TOWARD THE WI BORDER.

THE LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AND
PERSISTENT AS THE ONE JUST EXITING THE AREA...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY
A SIGNAL FM 00Z RUN OF ECMWF AND ASSOCIATED ECMWF ENSEMBLES THAT THE
UPR LOW COULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SHOULD NOTE
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH
OVR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE TREND THAT HAS OCCURRED
LATELY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS OVR EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES...
TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF A MORE PERSISTENT UPR LOW OFFERED UP BY THE
00Z ECMWF/ENSEMBLES. LOWERED TEMPS TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOT
QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS JUST FINISHING UP THOUGH WITH CURRENT
UPR LOW...SO RISK OF MUCH PCPN SEEMS LOW. DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHRA IN FCST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THOUGH. BEST COVERAGE WOULD BE
INLAND AWAY FM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR.

UPR LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING
RIDGE OVR THE PLAINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND WRN GREAT LAKES. H85 TEMPS EVEN OFF THE ECMWF SHOW QUITE THE
SWITCH WITH READINGS ON TUE/WED BLO 8C AND BY LATE THU PUSHING
TOWARD 20C INTO FAR WRN UPR MI. SO...AFTER THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE TEMPS OVR THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA MAY MAKE IT BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SHORTWAVES ON PERIFERY OF RIDGE BRING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BACK
INTO THE UPR LAKES BY VERY END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER
UPPER MI THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AND WEAKEN. WITH
ITS DEPARTURE...CLOUDS ARE SCATTERING OUT TO THE W AND NW ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING E AND SE INTO UPPER MI. THUS...MVFR CIGS AT KCMX/KSAW
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR WITH CLOUDS THEN SCATTERING OUT IN THE MORNING.
IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BEFORE SUNRISE (MORE LIKELY AT KCMX)...FOG MAY
DEVELOP...REDUCING VIS TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
WELL BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY AND MANITOBA WILL EDGE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20
KNOTS OR LESS FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...DLG

000
FXUS63 KAPX 030514
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
114 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

THE BLOCKED VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW OVR QUEBEC WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS (15 DEG BELOW NORMAL) THRU FRI. BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVING
SKIES AND REBOUNDING TEMPS WILL BEGIN SAT...WITH A DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER THRU AT LEAST WED. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE 10 DEG
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPORARY
WARM-UP LATE NEXT WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1000 PM/...OVERNIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
THICK LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN...BUT REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE FINALLY COMING TO A CLOSE PER KAPX EVENING
RADAR TREND. WILL KEEP ISOLD -SHRA IN THE FORECAST FOR NE LWR
MICHIGAN THRU 06Z...AT WHICH TIME DIMINISHING DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS
TO CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS LATEST NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO HOLD ONTO SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/...FRIDAY

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS
TROFS REDEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.  IN BETWEEN...RIDGING AND BUILDING HEAT THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.  A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES IN AN ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIMITED
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF ON THE CLOUDY SIDE BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
PARTLY SUNNY FROM WEST-EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRIER H8-H5 AIR
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.  UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL BRING A CORE OF COLDER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR /H8 TEMPS
6-8C/ INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CU
FIELDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER.  MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO LOW GIVEN AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
/IT IS EARLY JULY!/...SO WILL BLEND WITH WARMER MAV NUMBERS.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
HELPING TO SUPPRESS HEIGHTS AND KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOLER SIDE.
OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CU BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY...LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UPPER ON
SUNDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
PUT INTO GRIDS.  GOOD VIEWING FOR FIREWORKS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S.

I WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS DEEPER LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS IN GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK...BUT RAIN CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH ANY OF THEM TO
WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST.  I WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWN /NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/ THRU TUESDAY AS
AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THERMAL TROF.  FUTURE SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS ADDITIONALLY IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING MUCH COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  HEAT BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A RUN AT THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK /TEMPS INTO THE 80S?/.

JK

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO WILL FINALLY HEAD FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...GUSTIER NW FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
FROM THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ARGUMENTS. BUT WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

ADAM

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 130 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY FRIDAY
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURNING TO ALL OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 030355
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

FRIDAY EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT AS THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK INTO THE 70S
IN SPOTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
CURRENTLY. THE 12Z GFS/GEM SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SITTING OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST AND CLOSER
TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH IT. THE END RESULT THOUGH IS PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME. WE/LL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
IN THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE END OF THE PERIOD APPROACHES...EXPECT
WARMER TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(1155 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)

SOME LARGE BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT NEAR
US-131 (AROUND 7 PM). THAT BREAK HAS ACTUALLY GROWN AND MOVED INLAND
FARTHER. SINCE THE CEILINGS ARE LOWER NORTH OF THE GRR CWA AT 11
PM... I BELIEVE THE LOWER CEILING WILL MOVE IN BY 3 AM ACROSS THE
CWA.

OVERALL THROUGH...I STILL BELIEVE WHAT I WROTE EARLIER...THAT
FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO REALLY CLEAR... WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE JET
AXIS TO PASS OVERHEAD. THAT HAPPENS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO I DO
BELIEVE SOME CLEARING COULD TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 135 KNOT
JET CORE THAT COMES OVER SW MICHIGAN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. THAT
WOULD RESULT IN MID CLOUDS. THUS...SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY BUT THEN LAYER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH WINDS AT SOUTH HAVEN
AND ST. JOSEPH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES SUBSIDING. WAVES SHOULD BE ONE
FOOT OR LESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     DUKE
SHORT TERM:   DUKE
LONG TERM:    93
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       DUKE
HYDROLOGY:    DUKE

000
FXUS63 KDTX 030355
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1155 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.  THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK.  CEILINGS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  BKN STRATO-CU WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.  LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL TEND TO LIFT INTO LOW VFR BY THIS
TIME AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY SCOURS OUT.  SLOW CLEARING
TREND BY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY IS FINALLY OPENING UP THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TO BEGIN MOVING EAST
EVER SO SLOWLY THOUGH.  PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PROVIDING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY STILL PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THE AIDE OF MAX HEATING OF THE DAY IF ONE CAN CALL
IT THAT. AS OF 2PM...FLINT HAS ONLY REACHED 64.  THE RECORD MAX
LOW FOR THE DAY IS 67 SET BACK IN 1978 AND WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN
UNLESS THEY CAN GET SOME BREAK IN THE OVERCAST FOR A WHILE. DETROITS
WAS 65 IN THE SAME YEAR BUT THEY ALREADY REACHED 66. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

THE LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST ...RESULTING IN A
SLOW DRYING TREND TOMORROW AS INCREASING NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
KICKS IN. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND INTO THE 70S (LOWER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLEARING SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATING NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL HINGE ON THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES/ENERGY
EJECTING OUT FROM THE WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...WHICH AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. DISREGARDED THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE 12Z
UKMET/NAM/EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE GFS
OVERDEVELOPS THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER ONTARIO DURING THE 60-72
HR PERIOD DUE TO CONVECTIVE RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. WILL
THUS BE MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST UNDERNEATH PREDOMINATE WEST-
NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW INTO MONDAY...AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES TRACK
MOSTLY NORTH (THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES). WITH 850 MB TEMPS
SEEN HOVERING AROUND 10 C BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY...LOOKING AT MAXES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES...STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL (ESPECIALLY THE MINS).

LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE MAXES A BIT CHALLENGING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MAXES RIGHT NEAR 80 DEGREES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE LEAST LOGICAL MODEL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM
INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SE MICHIGAN.

MARINE...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED NEAR GEORGIAN
BAY FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA, STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CARRY DRY AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KNOTS BUT INSTABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL
LEAD TO WAVES HIGH ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM THE TIP OF
THE THUMB TO PORT SANILAC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     SANILAC...FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 030200
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

THE BLOCKED VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW OVR QUEBEC WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS (15 DEG BELOW NORMAL) THRU FRI. BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVING
SKIES AND REBOUNDING TEMPS WILL BEGIN SAT...WITH A DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER THRU AT LEAST WED. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE 10 DEG
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPORARY
WARM-UP LATE NEXT WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1000 PM/...OVERNIGHT

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
THICK LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN...BUT REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE FINALLY COMING TO A CLOSE PER KAPX EVENING
RADAR TREND. WILL KEEP ISOLD -SHRA IN THE FORECAST FOR NE LWR
MICHIGAN THRU 06Z...AT WHICH TIME DIMINISHING DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS
TO CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS LATEST NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO HOLD ONTO SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/...FRIDAY

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS
TROFS REDEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.  IN BETWEEN...RIDGING AND BUILDING HEAT THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.  A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES IN AN ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIMITED
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF ON THE CLOUDY SIDE BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
PARTLY SUNNY FROM WEST-EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRIER H8-H5 AIR
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.  UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL BRING A CORE OF COLDER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR /H8 TEMPS
6-8C/ INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CU
FIELDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER.  MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO LOW GIVEN AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
/IT IS EARLY JULY!/...SO WILL BLEND WITH WARMER MAV NUMBERS.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
HELPING TO SUPPRESS HEIGHTS AND KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOLER SIDE.
OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CU BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY...LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UPPER ON
SUNDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
PUT INTO GRIDS.  GOOD VIEWING FOR FIREWORKS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S.

I WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS DEEPER LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS IN GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK...BUT RAIN CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH ANY OF THEM TO
WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST.  I WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWN /NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/ THRU TUESDAY AS
AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THERMAL TROF.  FUTURE SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS ADDITIONALLY IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING MUCH COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  HEAT BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A RUN AT THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK /TEMPS INTO THE 80S?/.

JK

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO WILL FINALLY HEAD FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...GUSTIER NW FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
FROM THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ARGUMENTS. BUT WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

ADAM

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 711 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NE LWR
MICHIGAN (APN)...EXPECT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS THRU THE 24 HR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURNING TO ALL OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 022333
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
733 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED WITHIN A MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.  THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK.  CEILINGS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  BKN STRATO-CU WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.  LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL TEND TO LIFT INTO LOW VFR BY THIS
TIME AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY SCOURS OUT.  SLOW CLEARING
TREND AFTER 00Z FRIDAY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY IS FINALLY OPENING UP THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TO BEGIN MOVING EAST
EVER SO SLOWLY THOUGH.  PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PROVIDING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY STILL PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THE AIDE OF MAX HEATING OF THE DAY IF ONE CAN CALL
IT THAT. AS OF 2PM...FLINT HAS ONLY REACHED 64.  THE RECORD MAX
LOW FOR THE DAY IS 67 SET BACK IN 1978 AND WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN
UNLESS THEY CAN GET SOME BREAK IN THE OVERCAST FOR A WHILE. DETROITS
WAS 65 IN THE SAME YEAR BUT THEY ALREADY REACHED 66. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...

THE LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST ...RESULTING IN A
SLOW DRYING TREND TOMORROW AS INCREASING NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
KICKS IN. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND INTO THE 70S (LOWER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLEARING SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATING NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL HINGE ON THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES/ENERGY
EJECTING OUT FROM THE WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...WHICH AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. DISREGARDED THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE 12Z
UKMET/NAM/EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE GFS
OVERDEVELOPS THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER ONTARIO DURING THE 60-72
HR PERIOD DUE TO CONVECTIVE RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. WILL
THUS BE MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST UNDERNEATH PREDOMINATE WEST-
NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW INTO MONDAY...AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES TRACK
MOSTLY NORTH (THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES). WITH 850 MB TEMPS
SEEN HOVERING AROUND 10 C BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY...LOOKING AT MAXES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES...STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL (ESPECIALLY THE MINS).

LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE MAXES A BIT CHALLENGING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MAXES RIGHT NEAR 80 DEGREES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE LEAST LOGICAL MODEL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM
INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SE MICHIGAN.

MARINE...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED NEAR GEORGIAN
BAY FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA, STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CARRY DRY AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KNOTS BUT INSTABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL
LEAD TO WAVES HIGH ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM THE TIP OF
THE THUMB TO PORT SANILAC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     SANILAC...FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......DRC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 022327 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE BLOCKING HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME. A DEEP LOW IS OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY BLANKETING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LARGE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK STATIONARY
RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
SEPARATES THE TWO LOWS. NAM/GFS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH A
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES OVER THE U.P.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY)... ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT

MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PROVINCE ON
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO POCKETS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING DOWN THE
LEE OF THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN THE DEEPER GFS WOULD
KEEP THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ANY PCPN NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS EAST MAINLY THIS EVENING. WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR LOW RELAXES GRIP ON UPR LAKES FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BUT YET ANOTHER UPR LOW IS FCST BY DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES TO DEVELOP FM ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPR GREAT LAKES
BY NEXT MONDAY.

4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES FM THE LARGE SCALE LOOK SLIM AS A
DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT BTWN EXITING TROUGH AND FLAT RIDGE OVR
WESTERN CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY IS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF LK SUPERIOR AND THAT IS WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTN
POP-UP SHRA/TSRA. SFC RIDGE IS PROGGED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH RESULTS IN LK BREEZES BOTH ON THE FOURTH AND ON SUNDAY. SEEMS
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY LK BREEZE SHRA/TSRA IS SUNDAY OVR THE
EAST CENTRAL CWA AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTH AND PREVAILING
WRLY FLOW AT 925MB MEETS UP WITH THE LK SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZES...MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SINCE H20 TEMPS ON
LK MICHIGAN ARE IN THE 60S...THEN THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALLY HIGHER DWPNTS/SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE LK
MICHIGAN LK BREEZE. NAM SHOWS A LOT OF QPF SUN AFTN OVR THE EAST BUT
ITS SFC DWPNTS OVR ALL THE EAST ARE AROUND 60F WHICH RESULTS IN
SBCAPES TOWARD 1000J/KG...LIKELY TOO HIGH. NO ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE POPS/QPF HARD AND EVEN THE SREF (WHICH HAS MANY NAM
MEMBERS WITHIN IT) SHOWS A VERY LOW PROB OF ANY QPF. COORD WITH THE
APX OFFICE AND WE WILL LET THE DRY FCST CONTINUE. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE A BIT BLO NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES AND WELL INTO THE 70S
INLAND TOWARD THE WI BORDER.

THE LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AND
PERSISTENT AS THE ONE JUST EXITING THE AREA...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY
A SIGNAL FM 00Z RUN OF ECMWF AND ASSOCIATED ECMWF ENSEMBLES THAT THE
UPR LOW COULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SHOULD NOTE
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH
OVR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE TREND THAT HAS OCCURRED
LATELY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS OVR EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES...
TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF A MORE PERSISTENT UPR LOW OFFERED UP BY THE
00Z ECMWF/ENSEMBLES. LOWERED TEMPS TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOT
QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS JUST FINISHING UP THOUGH WITH CURRENT
UPR LOW...SO RISK OF MUCH PCPN SEEMS LOW. DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHRA IN FCST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THOUGH. BEST COVERAGE WOULD BE
INLAND AWAY FM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR.

UPR LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING
RIDGE OVR THE PLAINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND WRN GREAT LAKES. H85 TEMPS EVEN OFF THE ECMWF SHOW QUITE THE
SWITCH WITH READINGS ON TUE/WED BLO 8C AND BY LATE THU PUSHING
TOWARD 20C INTO FAR WRN UPR MI. SO...AFTER THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE TEMPS OVR THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA MAY MAKE IT BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SHORTWAVES ON PERIFERY OF RIDGE BRING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BACK
INTO THE UPR LAKES BY VERY END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID/UPPER LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER
UPPER MI THE LAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY SHIFTING E AND WEAKENING. WITH
GRADUAL INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AT THE LOW-LEVELS...MVFR CIGS AT
KCMX/KSAW SHOULD FINALLY BREAK TO VFR FRI MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD AND
WELL BEYOND.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY AND MANITOBA WILL EDGE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20
KNOTS OR LESS FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DLG
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...DLG

000
FXUS63 KAPX 022311
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
711 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

THE BLOCKED VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW OVR QUEBEC WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS (15 DEG BELOW NORMAL) THRU FRI. BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVING
SKIES AND REBOUNDING TEMPS WILL BEGIN SAT...WITH A DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER THRU AT LEAST WED. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE 10 DEG
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPORARY
WARM-UP LATE NEXT WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/...TONIGHT

LATEST IN A SERIES OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SPINNING DOWN
THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON HEADING INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE LITTLE BATCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CIRCULATION
CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CHANNEL/DRUMMOND ISLAND AREA ATTM.
JUST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE OCCURING OVER THE REST OF THE
CWA PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT
BIGGEST WEATHER STORY IS ANOTHER SUMMER DAY OF CLOUDY/DREARY WEATHER
AND TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEAR 25 DEGREES BELOW IN SOME
CASES...WITH RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS LIKELY IN JEOPARDY FOR THIS DATE.

TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST AND COOL CONDITIONS...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL HAVE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE CENTER DROPS DOWN INTO
NRN LAKE HURON. SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AS WELL. BUT OTHERWISE...MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO
END BY MID EVENING OR SO WITH CLOUD SKIES THEN LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/...FRIDAY

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS
TROFS REDEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.  IN BETWEEN...RIDGING AND BUILDING HEAT THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.  A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES IN AN ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIMITED
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF ON THE CLOUDY SIDE BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
PARTLY SUNNY FROM WEST-EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRIER H8-H5 AIR
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.  UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL BRING A CORE OF COLDER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR /H8 TEMPS
6-8C/ INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CU
FIELDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER.  MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO LOW GIVEN AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
/IT IS EARLY JULY!/...SO WILL BLEND WITH WARMER MAV NUMBERS.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
HELPING TO SUPPRESS HEIGHTS AND KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOLER SIDE.
OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CU BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY...LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UPPER ON
SUNDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
PUT INTO GRIDS.  GOOD VIEWING FOR FIREWORKS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S.

I WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS DEEPER LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS IN GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK...BUT RAIN CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH ANY OF THEM TO
WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST.  I WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWN /NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/ THRU TUESDAY AS
AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THERMAL TROF.  FUTURE SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS ADDITIONALLY IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING MUCH COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  HEAT BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A RUN AT THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK /TEMPS INTO THE 80S?/.

JK

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO WILL FINALLY HEAD FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...GUSTIER NW FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
FROM THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ARGUMENTS. BUT WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

ADAM

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 711 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

BROAD/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NE LWR
MICHIGAN (APN)...EXPECT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS THRU THE 24 HR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURNING TO ALL OF
NRN LWR MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 022258
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
658 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

FRIDAY EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT AS THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK INTO THE 70S
IN SPOTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
CURRENTLY. THE 12Z GFS/GEM SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SITTING OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST AND CLOSER
TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH IT. THE END RESULT THOUGH IS PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME. WE/LL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
IN THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE END OF THE PERIOD APPROACHES...EXPECT
WARMER TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(658 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
WE AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF THE POLAR JET AXIS TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS. LOOKING AT THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA
AT 22Z WHILE OVERLAYING THE 300 MB ISOTACHS OVER THE VISIBLE CLOUD
IMAGE THEN LOOPING IT... ONE CAN QUICKLY CONVINCE ONES SELF OF THE
UTILITY USING THE JET AXIS AND A GOOD FIRST GUESS FOR WHEN THE
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR. NOTE THE JET AXIS OVER MANITOBA AND THE ONE OVER
MO. IN BOTH PLACES SKIES ARE OVERCAST ON THE POLAR WARD SIDE OF THE
JET AND MOSTLY CLEAR ON THE EQUATOR SIDE. SINCE THE MANITOBA JET
SPEED MAX CROSSES TO THE EAST OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...IT IS THEN THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK UP.

&&

.MARINE...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH WINDS AT SOUTH HAVEN
AND ST. JOSEPH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES SUBSIDING. WAVES SHOULD BE ONE
FOOT OR LESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     DUKE
SHORT TERM:   DUKE
LONG TERM:    93
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       DUKE
HYDROLOGY:    DUKE

000
FXUS63 KGRR 022016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTION EXCEPT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT REMAINS
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

FRIDAY EXPECTING AN IMPROVEMENT AS THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL WORK INTO THE 70S
IN SPOTS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
CURRENTLY. THE 12Z GFS/GEM SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SITTING OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST AND CLOSER
TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH IT. THE END RESULT THOUGH IS PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME. WE/LL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
IN THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE END OF THE PERIOD APPROACHES...EXPECT
WARMER TEMPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST...BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(124 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE TAFS WAS TO HANG ONTO THE STRATOCU LONGER.
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STRETCHING
FROM NEW ENGLAND ALL THE WAY TO MINNESOTA. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR
IT IS MOVING SLOWLY AND I SUSPECT WE/LL GENERALLY BE CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH WINDS AT SOUTH HAVEN
AND ST. JOSEPH BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES SUBSIDING. WAVES SHOULD BE ONE
FOOT OR LESS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(415 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009)
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND ALL SITES REMAIN WITHIN BANK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     DUKE
SHORT TERM:   DUKE
LONG TERM:    93
AVIATION:     93
MARINE:       DUKE
HYDROLOGY:    DUKE

000
FXUS63 KMQT 021950
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE BLOCKING HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME. A DEEP LOW IS OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIAN BAY BLANKETING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER LARGE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A WEAK STATIONARY
RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
SEPARATES THE TWO LOWS. NAM/GFS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON COMBINING WITH A
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN IS BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES OVER THE U.P.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

MODELS SUGGEST THAT CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PROVINCE ON
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW TWO POCKETS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING DOWN THE
LEE OF THE RIDGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY WILL
BRUSH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN THE DEEPER GFS WOULD
KEEP THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ANY PCPN NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS EAST MAINLY THIS EVENING. WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR LOW RELAXES GRIP ON UPR LAKES FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND BUT YET ANOTHER UPR LOW IS FCST BY DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES TO DEVELOP FM ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPR GREAT LAKES
BY NEXT MONDAY.

4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES FM THE LARGE SCALE LOOK SLIM AS A
DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT BTWN EXITING TROUGH AND FLAT RIDGE OVR
WESTERN CONUS. MAIN SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY IS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF LK SUPERIOR AND THAT IS WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTN
POP-UP SHRA/TSRA. SFC RIDGE IS PROGGED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH RESULTS IN LK BREEZES BOTH ON THE FOURTH AND ON SUNDAY. SEEMS
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY LK BREEZE SHRA/TSRA IS SUNDAY OVR THE
EAST CENTRAL CWA AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FM THE NORTH AND PREVAILING
WRLY FLOW AT 925MB MEETS UP WITH THE LK SUPERIOR AND LK MICHIGAN
LAKE BREEZES...MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SINCE H20 TEMPS ON
LK MICHIGAN ARE IN THE 60S...THEN THERE IS ALWAYS A POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALLY HIGHER DWPNTS/SFC BASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE LK
MICHIGAN LK BREEZE. NAM SHOWS A LOT OF QPF SUN AFTN OVR THE EAST BUT
ITS SFC DWPNTS OVR ALL THE EAST ARE AROUND 60F WHICH RESULTS IN
SBCAPES TOWARD 1000J/KG...LIKELY TOO HIGH. NO ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE IS
HITTING THE POPS/QPF HARD AND EVEN THE SREF (WHICH HAS MANY NAM
MEMBERS WITHIN IT) SHOWS A VERY LOW PROB OF ANY QPF. COORD WITH THE
APX OFFICE AND WE WILL LET THE DRY FCST CONTINUE. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE A BIT BLO NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES AND WELL INTO THE 70S
INLAND TOWARD THE WI BORDER.

THE LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AND
PERSISTENT AS THE ONE JUST EXITING THE AREA...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY
A SIGNAL FM 00Z RUN OF ECMWF AND ASSOCIATED ECMWF ENSEMBLES THAT THE
UPR LOW COULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SHOULD NOTE
THAT THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH
OVR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE TREND THAT HAS OCCURRED
LATELY WITH LOWER HEIGHTS OVR EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES...
TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF A MORE PERSISTENT UPR LOW OFFERED UP BY THE
00Z ECMWF/ENSEMBLES. LOWERED TEMPS TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOT
QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS JUST FINISHING UP THOUGH WITH CURRENT
UPR LOW...SO RISK OF MUCH PCPN SEEMS LOW. DID KEEP SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHRA IN FCST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THOUGH. BEST COVERAGE WOULD BE
INLAND AWAY FM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR.

UPR LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING
RIDGE OVR THE PLAINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPR MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND WRN GREAT LAKES. H85 TEMPS EVEN OFF THE ECMWF SHOW QUITE THE
SWITCH WITH READINGS ON TUE/WED BLO 8C AND BY LATE THU PUSHING
TOWARD 20C INTO FAR WRN UPR MI. SO...AFTER THE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE TEMPS OVR THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA MAY MAKE IT BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SHORTWAVES ON PERIFERY OF RIDGE BRING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BACK
INTO THE UPR LAKES BY VERY END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS  AND -DZ SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST...RISING TO MVFR THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD GET TO
IFR TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AND CEILING AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME VFR.

&&

.MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE)...

WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY AND MANITOBA WILL EDGE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 20
KNOTS OR LESS FROM FRIDAY ON.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DLG
SHORT TERM...DLG
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...DLG
MARINE...DLG

000
FXUS63 KDTX 021934
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
334 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY IS FINALLY OPENING UP THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TO BEGIN MOVING EAST
EVER SO SLOWLY THOUGH.  PLENTY OF WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PROVIDING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY STILL PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THE AIDE OF MAX HEATING OF THE DAY IF ONE CAN CALL
IT THAT. AS OF 2PM...FLINT HAS ONLY REACHED 64.  THE RECORD MAX
LOW FOR THE DAY IS 67 SET BACK IN 1978 AND WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN
UNLESS THEY CAN GET SOME BREAK IN THE OVERCAST FOR A WHILE. DETROITS
WAS 65 IN THE SAME YEAR BUT THEY ALREADY REACHED 66. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST ...RESULTING IN A
SLOW DRYING TREND TOMORROW AS INCREASING NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW
KICKS IN. WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND INTO THE 70S (LOWER 70S
NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH). CLEARING SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATING NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL HINGE ON THE VARIOUS SHORTWAVES/ENERGY
EJECTING OUT FROM THE WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...WHICH AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. DISREGARDED THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE 12Z
UKMET/NAM/EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE GFS
OVERDEVELOPS THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER ONTARIO DURING THE 60-72
HR PERIOD DUE TO CONVECTIVE RESPONSE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. WILL
THUS BE MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST UNDERNEATH PREDOMINATE WEST-
NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW INTO MONDAY...AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES TRACK
MOSTLY NORTH (THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES). WITH 850 MB TEMPS
SEEN HOVERING AROUND 10 C BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY...LOOKING AT MAXES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES...STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL (ESPECIALLY THE MINS).

LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE MAXES A BIT CHALLENGING...ALTHOUGH IT
APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE OVER SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MAXES RIGHT NEAR 80 DEGREES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE LEAST LOGICAL MODEL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM
INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MARINE...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED NEAR GEORGIAN
BAY FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA, STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CARRY DRY AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KNOTS BUT INSTABILITY OVER THE WATER WILL
LEAD TO WAVES HIGH ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM THE TIP OF
THE THUMB TO PORT SANILAC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
INTO THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 100 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

AVIATION...

LARGE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN PROVIDING IFR-MVFR CEILINGS.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE
AREA ON THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY RAISE CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  A DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     SANILAC...FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....SF/MM
MARINE.......DRC
AVIATION.....DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 021927
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
327 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

THE BLOCKED VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW OVR QUEBEC WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS (15 DEG BELOW NORMAL) THRU FRI. BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVING
SKIES AND REBOUNDING TEMPS WILL BEGIN SAT...WITH A DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER THRU AT LEAST WED. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE 10 DEG
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TEMPORARY
WARM-UP LATE NEXT WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/...TONIGHT

LATEST IN A SERIES OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SPINNING DOWN
THROUGH FAR NRN LAKE HURON HEADING INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE LITTLE BATCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CIRCULATION
CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CHANNEL/DRUMMOND ISLAND AREA ATTM.
JUST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE OCCURING OVER THE REST OF THE
CWA PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BUT
BIGGEST WEATHER STORY IS ANOTHER SUMMER DAY OF CLOUDY/DREARY WEATHER
AND TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEAR 25 DEGREES BELOW IN SOME
CASES...WITH RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS LIKELY IN JEOPARDY FOR THIS DATE.

TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST AND COOL CONDITIONS...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL HAVE A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE CENTER DROPS DOWN INTO
NRN LAKE HURON. SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN AS WELL. BUT OTHERWISE...MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO
END BY MID EVENING OR SO WITH CLOUD SKIES THEN LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY.

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/...FRIDAY

LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS
TROFS REDEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.  IN BETWEEN...RIDGING AND BUILDING HEAT THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.  A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES IN AN ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIMITED
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN
A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER.

FRIDAY WILL START OFF ON THE CLOUDY SIDE BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
PARTLY SUNNY FROM WEST-EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRIER H8-H5 AIR
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.  UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL BRING A CORE OF COLDER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR /H8 TEMPS
6-8C/ INTO AT LEAST EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CU
FIELDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER.  MET GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO LOW GIVEN AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
/IT IS EARLY JULY!/...SO WILL BLEND WITH WARMER MAV NUMBERS.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
HELPING TO SUPPRESS HEIGHTS AND KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOLER SIDE.
OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL CU BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY...LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS.  AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN UPPER ON
SUNDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
PUT INTO GRIDS.  GOOD VIEWING FOR FIREWORKS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S.

I WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AS DEEPER LONGWAVE TROF
DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITS IN GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK...BUT RAIN CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH ANY OF THEM TO
WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST.  I WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWN /NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS/ THRU TUESDAY AS
AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THERMAL TROF.  FUTURE SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS ADDITIONALLY IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING MUCH COOLER AIR FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY.  HEAT BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A RUN AT THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK /TEMPS INTO THE 80S?/.

JK

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 327 PM/

LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ONTARIO WILL FINALLY HEAD FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...GUSTIER NW FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE
FROM THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE
ARGUMENTS. BUT WINDS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.

ADAM

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 146 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

CIGS HV BEEN SLOW TO LIFT TODAY. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT MVFR
CONDS WILL DEVELOP FOR A SHORT TIME UNTIL 00Z. GIVEN POOR
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THRU 1740Z...USED MORE PESSIMISTIC NAM-WRF
GUIDANCE WITH SOME MODIFICATION BASED ON PERSISTENCE. THEREFORE...
EXPECT CIGS TO DEGRADE BACK TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 00Z/3. MID-LVL
SUBSIDENCE ASCTD WITH SHRTWV RIDGE WILL ENHANCE LOW-LVL INVERSION
TNGT...PROBABLY KEEPING CIGS SOLIDLY IFR THRU AT LEAST 15Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...LIFT FROM APPROACHING SHRTWV TROF WILL RAISE INVERSION
...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP.

JH

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$