[top]
000
FXUS63 KMPX 040814
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
314 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA E ADVECTON FOCUSES MORE OVER IOWA...BUT
THERE SEEMS TO BE A CONVERGENCE AXIS AROUND 850 MB LEVEL SSW OF
MSP AREA WITH LIGHT S WINDS NOTED ON THE KMPX VAD PROFILE AND 15
KNOT WINDS ON THE KWDL PROFILE. RUC SHOWING PERSISTENT...ALTHOUGH
LIGHT...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS WELL. WILL KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POPS OVER A
FEW AREAS OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THERE IS STILL AN
E-W ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS OVER
SOUTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS IN CENTRAL MN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH AND
ADD ISOLATED THUNDER. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BUT A NW UPPER JET FROM N MN
INTO THE GREAT LAKES..COMBINED WITH WEAK WARM/INSTABILITY
ADVECTON INTO SW MN MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR
TSTM OVER SW MN. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...BUT
AFTER COORD WITH ADJOINING OFFICES...WILL JUST STICK WITH A SLIGHT
CHC FOR NOW. A MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER TYPE OF SYSTEM FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED INTO THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE AN
MCS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY AFFECT THE W PART OF THE CWA WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AIR. THE COLD FRONT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THU OR THU NIGHT WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPS
SLOWLY RISING TOWARD THE UPPER 80S BY WED AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
PRECIP HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING WITH SUCH DRY AIR PER 00Z KMPX SOUNDING. HOWEVER
LATEST RUC DOES SHOW NRN FRINGE OF SHOWERS MAY SIDESWIPE KMSP
TOWARD 12Z. LONGER TERM MODELS SUGGEST A SIMILAR PATTERN. WILL
BRING IN SOME SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS BUT KEEP VSBY AOA 7SM. WILL
KEEP ANY P6SM SHRA OUT OF AXN/STC/EAU/RNH... JUST SOME MID CLOUDS.
MAIN FORCING GOES BY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CU.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPR/TDK
[top]
000
FXUS63 KDLH 040748
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
248 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A WAVY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...USUALLY RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORM EPISODES. RIGHT NOW...A VERY STRONG AND PERSISTENT
STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM THE CAPROCK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MEMPHIS AREA TO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THIS FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. GULF MOISTURE
FLOWING NORTH WILL STILL BE INTERCEPTED BY WAVES MOVING ALONG THIS
FRONT. AND...FROM THE CONTENENTAL DIVIDE TO THE WEST COAST...A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK PACIFIC AIR AND ITS USUAL
LOW AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FROM COMING EAST. SUCH DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN SCOOTING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN...WITH ALTERNATING WEAK
SURFACE HIGHS MOVING FIRST JUST SOUTH OF AND THEN THROUGH NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BASIN...WILL KEEP OUR AREA VERY DRY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEXT WEAK HIGH...OVER THE
MANITOBA LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WILL APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CENTRAL ONTARIO SUNDAY. THE CONTINUING WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
.EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN ACTIVE FINALLY AS
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DEEPENS AND BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MID TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON DETAILS AND TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THURS
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KINL AND KHIB OVERNIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE. MODELS
NOT INDICATING ANYTHING BELOW P6SM...AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WERE
ONLY DROPPING TO MVFR FOR A SHORT TIME...SO DID NOT PUT IN ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES MAINLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE HIGH RESOLUTION 4 KM NAM-WRF
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION 21Z - 03Z FRAME. THE
NAM IS A BIT QUICKER AND MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE ON LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... PARTICULARLY AROUND KINL...AND EVEN PUSHES A FEW
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS
FOR TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE...BUT KEPT CONDITIONS DRY WITH VFR
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTED BY VERY LOW MOS PRECIP CHANCES AND
SUPPORT FROM THE EUROPEAN AND SREF MODELS. NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AT KINL AT LEAST WITH INSTABILITY TO THE WEST...THOUGH FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES WILL MONITOR WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIGGING
SOUTHEAST.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 47 72 47 / 10 10 10 10
INL 77 46 76 46 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 78 54 78 52 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 78 43 78 46 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 73 46 72 48 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
EOM/HENRY
000
FXUS63 KMPX 040416
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1116 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS WC INTO SC MN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD EASTERN SODAK WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO W NEB/SW SODAK. EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A BIT SLOW...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PROBABLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN
WEAK AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL MN. 12Z NAM 310K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF WC WI. INCREASED POPS FOR
TONIGHT TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS ABOUT THE SW HALF OF CWA WITH POPS
TRAILING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY IN NE PORTIONS OF CWA IN
WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS MOST
AREAS BY 12Z...WITH EXCEPTION OF SC MN INTO THE EAU AREA. UPPED
MIN TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT AS WELL WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
OTHER THAN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS SE PORTIONS AREA...THE 4TH
LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND A LIGHT
NW WIND. HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON SC MN WITH
NAM/GFS STILL SHOWING SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE PRESENT.
NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT THRU AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTRO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WI
CWA INTO S PORTIONS OF MN CWA WITH FEATURE MOVING THRU AT FAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY.
NW FLOW CONTINUES THRU MONDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. WARM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA MID WEEK BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS BREAK DOWN RIDGE SOMEWHAT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS TO MOVE THRU BRINGING THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
PRECIP HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING WITH SUCH DRY AIR PER 00Z KMPX SOUNDING. HOWEVER
LATEST RUC DOES SHOW NRN FRINGE OF SHOWERS MAY SIDESWIPE KMSP
TOWARD 12Z. LONGER TERM MODELS SUGGEST A SIMILAR PATTERN. WILL
BRING IN SOME SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS BUT KEEP VSBY AOA 7SM. WILL
KEEP ANY P6SM SHRA OUT OF AXN/STC/EAU/RNH... JUST SOME MID CLOUDS.
MAIN FORCING GOES BY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CU.
&&
$$
BAP/TDK
000
FXUS63 KDLH 040206 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
906 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...REMOVED THE PCPN MENTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS THE
SHRA/TSRA DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN AND LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY. INCREASED SKY COVER WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
SPREAD INTO THE FA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS ALSO PRECLUDES THE
MENTION FOR FOG AND HAVE REMOVED. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...A ZONAL MID LVL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW LVL BDRY/SHEAR ZONE STRETCHES
FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SRN EDGE OF CWA AND WEST INTO NE
SDAK. IT IS BEST DEFINED WITHIN THE 925 WIND FIELD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED POOLING OF SFC-900H DEWPOINTS. BEHIND THIS BDRY...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING SOUTH FROM CTRL MANITOBA. ISOLATED RW
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AFTERNOON WARMING ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BDRY.
TONIGHT...RUC13/NAM/EC KEEP SOME SMALL POPS OVER SRN EDGE OF CWA THROUGH
00Z... THEN SHIFT ACTIVITY SOUTH...ALTHOUGH NAM80 KEEPS POTENTIAL
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN WISC ZONES. WILL COMPROMISE AND LINGER
PRECIP/QPF THRU 6Z INTO SRN WISC ZONES. OVERALL...A TREND TOWARDS
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SFC RIDGING AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING. INHERITED GRIDS HAVE PATCHY FOG AND WILL LEAVE
FOR NOW. MOST NWP GUIDANCE... INCLUDING BUFKIT UPS FOG TECHNIQUE AND
SFC T/TD SPREADS FROM WRF ARW... SUGGEST FOG MAY BE ISOLATED IF
ANY AT ALL. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT ASSESS FURTHER. COOL TEMPS
EXPECTED AND LEFT GRIDS ALONE AS MAV/MET TOO WARM BASED ON LAST
NIGHTS RAWS/MESONET READINGS.
TOMORROW...PRETTY QUIET WX PATTERN WITH BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT AND
PWATS BETWEEN QUARTER AND HALF INCH. 85/70H LAPSE RATES INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 7-8C/KM...HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE TO
FOCUS LIFT AND SFC DEWPTS WILL HAVE LOWERED ACROSS MOST OF CWA.
BOTH 4KM NMM/WRF SIM REFLECTIVITY AND SPC SREF CPTP PARAMETER
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RW/TRW THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MID LVL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SCTRL ONTARIO
THIS PERIOD. THIS ACTS TO DEEPEN NWRLY FLOW OVER CWA.
UNIDIRECTIONAL BDRY LAYER FLOW INCREASES WITH LIMITED SFC
CONVERGENCE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
MON NITE THRU FRI...
MODELS GENERALLY IN AGMT IN MOVG UPR LVL RIDGE LINE E OF CWA BY
WED...ALLOWING S/WV IMPULSES TO APPROACH FROM THE SW CONTRIBUTING
UPR LVL DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION WED THRU FRI. IN THE LOLVLS EXPECT
INCRSG SLY FLOW/MSTR ADVECTION/ISENT LIFT DURING THE PD. THEREFORE
HAVE CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE PD. DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO GFS
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC SYSTEM. TENDED TO LEAN TWRD THE
SLOWER ECMWF DUE TO INITIAL HIGH AMPLITUDE OF UPR LVL FLOW. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH EVOLUTION OF DRY SLOT ON FRI AS CFNT COMES
THRU.
AVIATION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSHRE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS
STATES. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNSET...BUT
MOST RAIN SHOWERS WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CONFINED TO THE REGION OF GREATEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND ASCENT. KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE...BUT NEXT FORECAST MAY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST VCSH TO KBRD
AND KHYR...ESPECIALLY FROM ROUGHLY 00Z-06Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 73 47 78 / 10 10 10 10
INL 45 75 44 75 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 54 76 51 78 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 55 78 46 79 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 51 76 49 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
GSF
000
FXUS63 KMPX 032333
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN LINES UP
FAIRLY WELL WITH 700-600MB LAYER FRONTOGENESIS. BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS SLIDES SLOWLY ESE DURING THE NIGHT WITH MUCH OF
FAR SOUTHERN MN STILL AFFECTED SATURDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...
MUCH OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH HAS BEEN FALLING FROM
CEILINGS IN THE 100-120 FOOT RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
OVERNIGHT AS TEMP/DP SPREAD NARROWS. THIS WILL IMPACT KRWF WITH
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FORECAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TO THE NORTH...A COLD FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND
HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRETTY GOOD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. RUC SHOWING THE
INSTABILITY SINKING SLOWLY SE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST WI
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A CONNECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE
MOISTURE TO OUR SW. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME -SHRA FOR KMSP...KRNH
AND KEAU AFTER 03Z WHICH MAY PERSIST TO NEAR DAYBREAK. A
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED CB IN THE CLOUD
GROUP. CEILINGS BREAKING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS WC INTO SC MN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD EASTERN SODAK WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO W NEB/SW SODAK. EASTWARD PUSH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A BIT SLOW...BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PROBABLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN
WEAK AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL MN. 12Z NAM 310K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
PRECIPITATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF WC WI. INCREASED POPS FOR
TONIGHT TO UNCATEORICAL ACROSS ABOUT THE SW HALF OF CWA WITH POPS
TRAILING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY IN NE PORTIONS OF CWA IN
WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS MOST
AREAS BY 12Z...WITH EXCEPTION OF SC MN INTO THE EAU AREA. UPPED
MIN TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT AS WELL WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
OTHER THAN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS SE PORTIONS AREA...THE 4TH
LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND A LIGHT
NW WIND. HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON SC MN WITH
NAM/GFS STILL SHOWING SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE PRESENT.
NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT THRU AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTRO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WI
CWA INTO S PORTIONS OF MN CWA WITH FEATURE MOVING THRU AT FAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY.
NW FLOW CONTINUES THRU MONDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. WARM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA MID WEEK BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS BREAK DOWN RIDGE SOMEWHAT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS TO MOVE THRU BRINING THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/BAP
000
FXUS63 KMPX 032003
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESRPEAD AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS WC INTO SC MN. WV IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD EASTERN SODAK WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO W NEB/SW SODAK. EASTWARD PUSH OF SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A BIT SLOW...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PROBABLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN WEAK AREA OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL MN. 12Z NAM 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASING THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MN AND
PORTIONS OF WC WI. INCREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT TO UNCATEORICAL ACROSS
ABOUT THE SW HALF OF CWA WITH POPS TRAILING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY IN NE PORTIONS OF CWA IN WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ENDING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS MOST AREAS BY 12Z...WITH EXCEPTION OF SC
MN INTO THE EAU AREA. UPPED MIN TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT AS WELL WITH
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
OTHER THAN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS SE PORTIONS AREA...THE 4TH
LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND A LIGHT
NW WIND. HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON SC MN WITH
NAM/GFS STILL SHOWING SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE PRESENT.
NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT THRU AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTRO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WI
CWA INTO S PORTIONS OF MN CWA WITH FEATURE MOVING THRU AT FAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY.
NW FLOW CONTINUES THRU MONDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL. WARM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA MID WEEK BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS BREAK DOWN RIDGE SOMEWHAT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS TO MOVE THRU BRINING THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
STILL OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. MOIST MID LEVEL ASCENT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THIS
ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MN.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS ON THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EVENING MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS. KRWF WILL
SEE THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD AND
WILL CLIP KAXN AND KSTC THIS AFTERNOON. KSTC SHOULD SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THINGS A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH. KMSP WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER COVERAGE THIS
EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO INCREASED TO PREVAILING -RA
DURING THE EVENING BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT KRNH AND KEAU AS THEY WILL BE ON THE
FRINGES SO WILL RETAIN VCSH MENTION FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND PERHAPS A BRIEF MVFR CIG. KRWF MAY SETTLE
INTO MVFR VISBY OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE
DIRECTION TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR KRWF WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
AND SKIES SCATTER OUT. ..MDB..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
BAP/MB
000
FXUS63 KDLH 031956 CCA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...A ZONAL MID LVL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW LVL BDRY/SHEAR ZONE STRETCHES
FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SRN EDGE OF CWA AND WEST INTO NE
SDAK. IT IS BEST DEFINED WITHIN THE 925 WIND FIELD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED POOLING OF SFC-900H DEWPOINTS. BEHIND THIS BDRY...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING SOUTH FROM CTRL MANITOBA. ISOLATED RW
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AFTERNOON WARMING ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BDRY.
TONIGHT...RUC13/NAM/EC KEEP SOME SMALL POPS OVER SRN EDGE OF CWA THROUGH
00Z... THEN SHIFT ACTIVITY SOUTH...ALTHOUGH NAM80 KEEPS POTENTIAL
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN WISC ZONES. WILL COMPROMISE AND LINGER
PRECIP/QPF THRU 6Z INTO SRN WISC ZONES. OVERALL...A TREND TOWARDS
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SFC RIDGING AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING. INHERITED GRIDS HAVE PATCHY FOG AND WILL LEAVE
FOR NOW. MOST NWP GUIDANCE... INCLUDING BUFKIT UPS FOG TECHNIQUE AND
SFC T/TD SPREADS FROM WRF ARW... SUGGEST FOG MAY BE ISOLATED IF
ANY AT ALL. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT ASSESS FURTHER. COOL TEMPS
EXPECTED AND LEFT GRIDS ALONE AS MAV/MET TOO WARM BASED ON LAST
NIGHTS RAWS/MESONET READINGS.
TOMORROW...PRETTY QUIET WX PATTERN WITH BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT AND
PWATS BETWEEN QUARTER AND HALF INCH. 85/70H LAPSE RATES INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 7-8C/KM...HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE TO
FOCUS LIFT AND SFC DEWPTS WILL HAVE LOWERED ACROSS MOST OF CWA.
BOTH 4KM NMM/WRF SIM REFLECTIVITY AND SPC SREF CPTP PARAMETER
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RW/TRW THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MID LVL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SCTRL ONTARIO
THIS PERIOD. THIS ACTS TO DEEPEN NWRLY FLOW OVER CWA.
UNIDIRECTIONAL BDRY LAYER FLOW INCREASES WITH LIMITED SFC
CONVERGENCE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
MON NITE THRU FRI...
MODELS GENERALLY IN AGMT IN MOVG UPR LVL RIDGE LINE E OF CWA BY
WED...ALLOWING S/WV IMPULSES TO APPROACH FROM THE SW CONTRIBUTING
UPR LVL DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION WED THRU FRI. IN THE LOLVLS EXPECT
INCRSG SLY FLOW/MSTR ADVECTION/ISENT LIFT DURING THE PD. THEREFORE
HAVE CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE PD. DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO GFS
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC SYSTEM. TENDED TO LEAN TWRD THE
SLOWER ECMWF DUE TO INITIAL HIGH AMPLITUDE OF UPR LVL FLOW. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH EVOLUTION OF DRY SLOT ON FRI AS CFNT COMES
THRU.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSHRE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS
STATES. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNSET...BUT
MOST RAIN SHOWERS WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CONFINED TO THE REGION OF GREATEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND ASCENT. KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE...BUT NEXT FORECAST MAY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST VCSH TO KBRD
AND KHYR...ESPECIALLY FROM ROUGHLY 00Z-06Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 74 46 73 47 / 10 10 10 10
INL 72 41 75 44 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 77 51 76 51 / 20 10 10 10
HYR 80 45 78 46 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 74 48 76 49 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
SHORT...CANNON
EXTENDED...04
AVIATION...BETTWY
000
FXUS63 KDLH 031950
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
250 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...A ZONAL MID LVL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW LVL BDRY/SHEAR ZONE STRETCHES
FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SRN EDGE OF CWA AND WEST INTO NE
SDAK. IT IS BEST DEFINED WITHIN THE 925 WIND FIELD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED POOLING OF SFC-900H DEWPOINTS. BEHIND THIS BDRY...A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING SOUTH FROM CTRL MANITOBA. ISOLATED RW
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AFTERNOON WARMING ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BDRY.
TONIGHT...RUC13/NAM/EC KEEP SOME SMALL POPS OVER SRN EDGE OF CWA THROUGH
00Z... THEN SHIFT ACTIVITY SOUTH...ALTHOUGH NAM80 KEEPS POTENTIAL
MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN WISC ZONES. WILL COMPROMISE AND LINGER
PRECIP/QPF THRU 6Z INTO SRN WISC ZONES. OVERALL...A TREND TOWARDS
CLEARING THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SFC RIDGING AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING. INHERITED GRIDS HAVE PATCHY FOG AND WILL LEAVE
FOR NOW. MOST NWP GUIDANCE... INCLUDING BUFKIT UPS FOG TECHNIQUE AND
SFC T/TD SPREADS FROM WRF ARW... SUGGEST FOG MAY BE ISOLATED IF
ANY AT ALL. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT ASSESS FURTHER. COOL TEMPS
EXPECTED AND LEFT GRIDS ALONE AS MAV/MET TOO WARM BASED ON LAST
NIGHTS RAWS/MESONET READINGS.
TOMORROW...PRETTY QUIET WX PATTERN WITH BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT AND
PWATS BETWEEN QUARTER AND HALF INCH. 85/70H LAPSE RATES INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 7-8C/KM...HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE TO
FOCUS LIFT AND SFC DEWPTS WILL HAVE LOWERED ACROSS MOST OF CWA.
BOTH 4KM NMM/WRF SIM REFLECTIVITY AND SPC SREF CPTP PARAMETER
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RW/TRW THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MID LVL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SCTRL ONTARIO
THIS PERIOD. THIS ACTS TO DEEPEN NWRLY FLOW OVER CWA.
UNIDIRECTIONAL BDRY LAYER FLOW INCREASES WITH LIMITED SFC
CONVERGENCE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
MON NITE THRU FRI...
MODELS GENERALLY IN AGMT IN MOVG UPR LVL RIDGE LINE E OF CWA BY
WED...ALLOWING S/WV IMPULSES TO APPROACH FROM THE SW CONTRIBUTING
UPR LVL DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION WED THRU FRI. IN THE LOLVLS EXPECT
INCRSG SLY FLOW/MSTR ADVECTION/ISENT LIFT DURING THE PD. THEREFORE
HAVE CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE PD. DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO GFS
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC SYSTEM. TENDED TO LEAN TWRD THE
SLOWER ECMWF DUE TO INITIAL HIGH AMPLITUDE OF UPR LVL FLOW. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH EVOLUTION OF DRY SLOT ON FRI AS CFNT COMES
THRU.
&&
.AVIATION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSHRE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS
STATES. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNSET...BUT
MOST RAIN SHOWERS WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...CONFINED TO THE REGION OF GREATEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND ASCENT. KEPT ALL TERMINALS DRY WITH THIS
ISSUANCE...BUT NEXT FORECAST MAY NEED TO ADD AT LEAST VCSH TO KBRD
AND KHYR...ESPECIALLY FROM ROUGHLY 00Z-06Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 74 46 73 47 / 10 10 10 10
INL 72 41 75 44 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 77 51 76 51 / 20 10 10 10
HYR 80 45 78 46 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 74 48 76 49 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
CANNON/04
000
FXUS63 KMPX 031742
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHILE RIDGING IS IN CONTROL AT
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TODAY AS A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE /NOTED ON EARLY MORNING H2O VAPOR IMAGERY/ PUSHES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL RELATED ITEMS OF
INTEREST HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FIRST OF ALL...BOTH NAM AND GFS MODELS DEPICT
AN IMPRESSIVE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE FROM SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS
CORRELATED WITH RESPECTABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 310K SURFACE. AS COULD BE
EXPECTED...A BURST OF DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO ILLUSTRATED
ACROSS SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TONIGHT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN COUNTIES.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ANTICIPATE MORE NOTABLE AMOUNTS
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NERN NE AND IOWA /PER THE 03.00Z GFS MSLP
PROG WHICH INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE 03.00Z NAM/. THAT IS ALSO
THE MORE FAVORED AREA FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BASED ON
THE DEPICTION OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE. QUARTER
TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
BY 15Z SATURDAY...THE FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCI HAVE SHIFTED OFF
TO THE SOUTH/EAST...WITH ENSUING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WILL
THEREFORE HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A MECHANISM TO INSTIGATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A DRY FORECAST AFTER 15Z.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE PRONE TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK
IMPULSES TOP THE RIDGE. HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR MONDAY WHEN A
WEAK TROUGH IS ALSO PROGGED TO BEGIN POKING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
MN AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL STILL FEEL RELATIVELY MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO MODERATE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATING
EXPANSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE LOCALLY AHEAD
OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
STILL OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. MOIST MID LEVEL ASCENT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THIS
ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MN.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS ON THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EVENING MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS. KRWF WILL
SEE THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD AND
WILL CLIP KAXN AND KSTC THIS AFTERNOON. KSTC SHOULD SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THINGS A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH. KMSP WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER COVERAGE THIS
EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO INCREASED TO PREVAILING -RA
DURING THE EVENING BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT KRNH AND KEAU AS THEY WILL BE ON THE
FRINGES SO WILL RETAIN VCSH MENTION FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND PERHAPS A BRIEF MVFR CIG. KRWF MAY SETTLE
INTO MVFR VISBY OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE
DIRECTION TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR KRWF WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
AND SKIES SCATTER OUT. ..MDB..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
LS/MDB
000
FXUS63 KDLH 031655 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1155 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...FCST/GRIDS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS
MOVEMENT OF PRECIP SHIELD TOWARDS SRN EDGE OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MDL CONSENSUS IS THAT SOME LOW POPS/LIGHT QPF
MAY EDGE INTO SRN CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 4KM SPC
WRF/NMM REFL PRODUCT GENERATES NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF
CWA BY MID AFTERNOON AND TRANSLATES TOWARDS SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN
LAYER FLOW. IT DOES SUGGEST A BRIEF RW MAY OCCUR OVER BURNETT/WASHBURN
VICINITY BEFORE MOVING OUT OF CWA. LATEST RUC13 85/70 LAPSE RATES
REMAIN STABLE IN THIS REGION AND ARE FCST TO INCREASE ONLY
SLIGHTLY. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED
AND PERSISTENT WRAP AROUND STRATUS ALSO FINALLY CLEARING THE
EASTERN FA THIS EARLY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS NOSING INTO ND/N
MN PER EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ON BACKSIDE OF EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH...MODELS
HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO
THE SOUTHERN DLH FA COUNTIES. NAM SHOWING SOME MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL. GFS REMAINS DRIER
HOWEVER...AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST ATTM...AND MONITOR
CLOSELY AS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO THE DLH FA BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IN PLACE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WILL MAKE FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUN WILL
MAKE TEMPERATURE SWINGS LARGE HOWEVER...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS
AND COOL LOW TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RELATIVELY DRY AND
GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH
TIME. NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRYING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT
THINK THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE REASONABLE AND
HAVE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE BIG PROBLEM IS THAT THE BIG
RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. THE MORNING FOG MAY
BE DENSE IN SPOTS...WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL AROUND 13Z.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 74 46 73 47 / 10 10 10 10
INL 72 41 75 44 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 77 51 76 51 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 80 45 78 46 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 74 48 76 49 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
CANNON
000
FXUS63 KMPX 031136
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
636 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
ADDED 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHILE RIDGING IS IN CONTROL AT
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TODAY AS A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE /NOTED ON EARLY MORNING H2O VAPOR IMAGERY/ PUSHES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL RELATED ITEMS OF
INTEREST HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FIRST OF ALL...BOTH NAM AND GFS MODELS DEPICT
AN IMPRESSIVE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE FROM SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS
CORRELATED WITH RESPECTABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 310K SURFACE. AS COULD BE
EXPECTED...A BURST OF DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO ILLUSTRATED
ACROSS SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TONIGHT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN COUNTIES.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ANTICIPATE MORE NOTABLE AMOUNTS
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NERN NE AND IOWA /PER THE 03.00Z GFS MSLP
PROG WHICH INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE 03.00Z NAM/. THAT IS ALSO
THE MORE FAVORED AREA FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BASED ON
THE DEPICTION OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE. QUARTER
TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
BY 15Z SATURDAY...THE FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCI HAVE SHIFTED OFF
TO THE SOUTH/EAST...WITH ENSUING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WILL
THEREFORE HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A MECHANISM TO INSTIGATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A DRY FORECAST AFTER 15Z.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE PRONE TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK
IMPULSES TOP THE RIDGE. HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR MONDAY WHEN A
WEAK TROUGH IS ALSO PROGGED TO BEGIN POKING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
MN AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL STILL FEEL RELATIVELY MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO MODERATE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATING
EXPANSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE LOCALLY AHEAD
OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AREA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES. LO PRES TROUGH FROM SD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BE MOVING EAST DURING THE PERIOD AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA OR MISSOURI TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOST OF THE SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION WILL AFFECT AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT A SECOND BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY BE A FOCUS
FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL LOWER CIGS
TO LOW END VFR 040-060 MOST AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BEST CHC FOR LOWER CIGS...KRWF...TO
KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU. LIGHT WINDS PRIMARILY SSE BECOMING MORE NE
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
LS/JPR
000
FXUS63 KDLH 030835
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
335 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED
AND PERSISTENT WRAP AROUND STRATUS ALSO FINALLY CLEARING THE
EASTERN FA THIS EARLY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS NOSING INTO ND/N
MN PER EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ON BACKSIDE OF EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH...MODELS
HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO
THE SOUTHERN DLH FA COUNTIES. NAM SHOWING SOME MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL. GFS REMAINS DRIER
HOWEVER...AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST ATTM...AND MONITOR
CLOSELY AS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO THE DLH FA BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IN PLACE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...WILL MAKE FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUN WILL
MAKE TEMPERATURE SWINGS LARGE HOWEVER...WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS
AND COOL LOW TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
.EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RELATIVELY DRY AND
GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER SHOULD BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH
TIME. NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG
RIDGING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRYING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SHOULD BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT
THINK THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE REASONABLE AND
HAVE MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE BIG PROBLEM IS THAT THE BIG
RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FROM REACHING OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. THE MORNING FOG MAY
BE DENSE IN SPOTS...WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL AROUND 13Z.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 46 73 49 / 10 10 10 10
INL 74 41 75 46 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 76 51 76 53 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 76 45 78 48 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 74 48 76 51 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
HENRY/DAP
000
FXUS63 KMPX 030705
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
205 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHILE RIDGING IS IN CONTROL AT
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TODAY AS A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE /NOTED ON EARLY MORNING H2O VAPOR IMAGERY/ PUSHES FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL RELATED ITEMS OF
INTEREST HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FIRST OF ALL...BOTH NAM AND GFS MODELS DEPICT
AN IMPRESSIVE 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS SIGNATURE FROM SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. THIS IS
CORRELATED WITH RESPECTABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING
CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE 310K SURFACE. AS COULD BE
EXPECTED...A BURST OF DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO ILLUSTRATED
ACROSS SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TONIGHT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN COUNTIES.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ANTICIPATE MORE NOTABLE AMOUNTS
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE NOSE OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NERN NE AND IOWA /PER THE 03.00Z GFS MSLP
PROG WHICH INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE 03.00Z NAM/. THAT IS ALSO
THE MORE FAVORED AREA FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BASED ON
THE DEPICTION OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE. QUARTER
TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
BY 15Z SATURDAY...THE FORCING AND MOISTURE FOCI HAVE SHIFTED OFF
TO THE SOUTH/EAST...WITH ENSUING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WILL
THEREFORE HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A MECHANISM TO INSTIGATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A DRY FORECAST AFTER 15Z.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE PRONE TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK
IMPULSES TOP THE RIDGE. HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR MONDAY WHEN A
WEAK TROUGH IS ALSO PROGGED TO BEGIN POKING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
MN AS ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WILL STILL FEEL RELATIVELY MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO MODERATE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATING
EXPANSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE NATION/S
MIDSECTION...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE LOCALLY AHEAD
OF STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SFC HIGH APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. PATTERN WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WINDS FLOPPING AROUND...MOSTLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST THE REST OF TONIGHT. GATHERING TROUGH AND SFC
LOW GRADUALLY APPROACH TOMORROW. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GO
BKN/OVC IN SW/WC MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS REST
OF TAF SITES...AND LOWER SOME MORE IN SW MN. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL
BE AT RWF WHERE HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN AS PRIMARY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
LS/TDK
000
FXUS63 KMPX 030405
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 359 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
CLOUD BANK OF STRATCU STILL IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
WI...DUE TO STACKED 50H AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ABOVE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. IR INDICATING THIN DECK WILL FINALLY DISINTEGRATE NEAR
OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. LOOKING FORWARD INTO
FRIDAY BRINGS US TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER FAR SW MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVERTED TROUGH MECHANISM.
50H TROUGH PROVIDES ANOTHER LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CHANCE POPS
ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL MN AND PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL WI. USED 305K SURFACE ANAL PER GFS40 ONCE AGAIN FOR
PAINTING PCPN CHANCES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOLID DIVERGENCE
COUPLET NOTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE CENTRAL MN IN RESPONSE TO
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 100KT JET MAX SIGHTED JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS NOTED YESTERDAY FARMERS AND LAWN ENTHUSIASTS ALIKE
SHOULD MAINLY EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM BOTH SYSTEMS
MENTIONED ABOVE. 850MB LI`S ALSO INDICATING BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IN A 50 MILE RADIUS OF ST CLOUD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD SKEW TREND MENTIONED ABOVE BY DROPPING UP TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH THIS TIME FRAME. 4TH OF JULY REVELERS
TAKE HEART...MOST OF REGION WILL BE STORM FREE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR BY THE MID EVENING HOURS.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER STACKED SURFACE AND 50MB LOW PRESSURE AREA TO
PLUNGE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STORM
SYSTEM REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE. THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PCPN ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK TROF ORBITING AROUND
AFOREMENTIONED VORTEX IN ONTARIO. IMPRESSIVE 50H RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER MN ON TUESDAY...WITH MDT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF NOTEWORTHY 994 SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVING INTO NODAK ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF YOUR SHOPPING
FOR ABOVE AVG TEMPS LOOK NO FURTHER THEN TUE AND WED...AS 570-582
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES RETURN TO THE REGION. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONVECTIVE ACTION THIS JUNCTURE APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PRE-COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFT KICKING OFF CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN HALF OF MN ON THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TREMENDOUS SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO
INDICATED THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY
MN FA. MODEL QPF VALUES STILL INDICATING A GOOD SHOT OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS SCATTERED PORTIONS
OF CWA BY FRI MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SFC HIGH APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. PATTERN WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WINDS FLOPPING AROUND...MOSTLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST THE REST OF TONIGHT. GATHERING TROUGH AND SFC
LOW GRADUALLY APPROACH TOMORROW. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD GO
BKN/OVC IN SW/WC MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS REST
OF TAF SITES...AND LOWER SOME MORE IN SW MN. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL
BE AT RWF WHERE HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN AS PRIMARY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDLH 030148 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
848 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
ONLY MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE THUNDERSHOWER CHANCES FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY IN OUR SW ZONES...AS ALL MODELS NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THE FA DRY AND PRECIP FREE.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NW TO SE AS HIGH PRES/SUBSIDENCE
MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE NORTHLAND. AREAS IN NW WI
HOWEVER...WILL BE LAST TO SCATTER OUT AND MAY HOLD ON TO THE
CLOUDS A SHORT TIME AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE EXPECTING A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS FOR FRI AND INDEPENCE DAY WEEKEND.
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED OUR FCST OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OUT TOMORROW...AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS SRN CANADA. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH...SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODERATING
INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
EXTENDED...SUN NITE THRU THU...
MODELS AGREE IN TRANSITIONING FROM NW FLOW ON MON TO SHARP UPR
LVL RIDGE ON TUE. KEPT MON/TUE DRY FOR NOW DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND LACK OF LOLVL MSTR. BY WED UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E
ALLOWING S/WV IMPULSES TO APPROACH FROM THE SW CONTRIBUTING SOME
UPR LVL DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION. IN THE LOLVLS EXPECT INCRSG SLY
FLOW/MSTR ADVECTION/ISENT LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE SLGT OR LOW CHC
POPS FOR WED/THU. DETAILS STILL A BIT VAGUE THIS FAR OUT...BUT
MODELS INDICATING THE SAME GENERAL IDEA...ALTHOUGH GFS DEVELOPS A
MUCH STRONGER SFC SYSTEM THAN ECMWF BY WED NITE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONGER UPR LVL S/WV.
AVIATION...PERSISTENT ST/SC CLD DECK FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
BREAKING UP OR MOVG OUT AS UPR LVL RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. ALL TAF SITES SHUD SEE MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
EARLY EVE IF NOT ALREADY THERE. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF TAF PD ALG WITH LIGHT WINDS...VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY
FROM THE NW.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 52 73 50 73 / 10 10 10 10
INL 49 73 46 72 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 54 76 52 75 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 52 76 48 77 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 51 74 49 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
LONKA
000
FXUS63 KMPX 022327
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD BANK OF STRATCU STILL IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
WI...DUE TO STACKED 50H AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ABOVE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. IR INDICATING THIN DECK WILL FINALLY DISINTEGRATE NEAR
OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. LOOKING FORWARD INTO
FRIDAY BRINGS US TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER FAR SW MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVERTED TROUGH MECHANISM.
50H TROUGH PROVIDES ANOTHER LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CHANCE POPS
ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL MN AND PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL WI. USED 305K SURFACE ANAL PER GFS40 ONCE AGAIN FOR
PAINTING PCPN CHANCES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOLID DIVERGENCE
COUPLET NOTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE CENTRAL MN IN RESPONSE TO
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 100KT JET MAX SIGHTED JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS NOTED YESTERDAY FARMERS AND LAWN ENTHUSIASTS ALIKE
SHOULD MAINLY EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM BOTH SYSTEMS
MENTIONED ABOVE. 850MB LI`S ALSO INDICATING BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IN A 50 MILE RADIUS OF ST CLOUD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD SKEW TREND MENTIONED ABOVE BY DROPPING UP TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH THIS TIME FRAME. 4TH OF JULY REVELERS
TAKE HEART...MOST OF REGION WILL BE STORM FREE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR BY THE MID EVENING HOURS.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER STACKED SURFACE AND 50MB LOW PRESSURE AREA TO
PLUNGE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STORM
SYSTEM REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE. THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PCPN ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK TROF ORBITING AROUND
AFOREMENTIONED VORTEX IN ONTARIO. IMPRESSIVE 50H RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER MN ON TUESDAY...WITH MDT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF NOTEWORTHY 994 SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVING INTO NODAK ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF YOUR SHOPPING
FOR ABOVE AVG TEMPS LOOK NO FURTHER THEN TUE AND WED...AS 570-582
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES RETURN TO THE REGION. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONVECTIVE ACTION THIS JUNCTURE APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PRE-COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFT KICKING OFF CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN HALF OF MN ON THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TREMENDOUS SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO
INDICATED THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY
MN FA. MODEL QPF VALUES STILL INDICATING A GOOD SHOT OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS SCATTERED PORTIONS
OF CWA BY FRI MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND DIRECTION AND SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT THE
PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO THIS
MORNING IS NOW MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE LOCAL REGION AND WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. CELLULAR CU/STRATOCU CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH BETTER COVERAGE
REMAINING ACROSS WEST CENT WI BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND ABUNDANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WI SITES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KEAU
WHERE 1SM OR LESS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MVFR VSBY MENTION AT KRNH. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO
MOVE INTO SW MN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING SPEEDS AROUND
6 OR 8 KTS BUT THE DIRECTION WILL BE ERRATIC. EXPECT A GENERALLY
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE KRWF WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO A SFC BOUNDARY SO A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED THERE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY AT KRWF WHERE PROB30 MENTION WAS
ADDED. KEPT THE REMAINING SITES DRY FOR NOW WITH MID LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY KEEPING THE MID LEVELS
FAIRLY DRY...WHILE THE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AN INCREASING
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THREAT TOWARDS KMSP/KSTC/KRNH. ..MDB..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AJZ/MDB
000
FXUS63 KMPX 022108
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD BANK OF STRATCU STILL IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
WI...DUE TO STACKED 50H AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ABOVE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. IR INDICATING THIN DECK WILL FINALLY DISINTEGRATE NEAR
OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. LOOKING FORWARD INTO
FRIDAY BRINGS US TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER FAR SW MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVERTED TROUGH MECHANISM.
50H TROUGH PROVIDES ANOTHER LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CHANCE POPS
ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL MN AND PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL WI. USED 305K SURFACE ANAL PER GFS40 ONCE AGAIN FOR
PAINTING PCPN CHANCES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOLID DIVERGENCE
COUPLET NOTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE CENTRAL MN IN RESPONSE TO
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 100KT JET MAX SIGHTED JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS NOTED YESTERDAY FARMERS AND LAWN ENTHUSIASTS ALIKE
SHOULD MAINLY EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM BOTH SYSTEMS
MENTIONED ABOVE. 850MB LI`S ALSO INDICATING BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IN A 50 MILE RADIUS OF ST CLOUD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD SKEW TREND MENTIONED ABOVE BY DROPPING UP TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH THIS TIME FRAME. 4TH OF JULY REVELERS
TAKE HEART...MOST OF REGION WILL BE STORM FREE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR BY THE MID EVENING HOURS.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER STACKED SURFACE AND 50MB LOW PRESSURE AREA TO
PLUNGE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STORM
SYSTEM REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE. THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PCPN ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK TROF ORBITTING AROUND
AFOREMENTIONED VORTEX IN ONTARIO. IMPRESSIVE 50H RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER MN ON TUESDAY...WITH MDT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF NOTEWORTHY 994 SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVING INTO NODAK ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF YOUR SHOPPING
FOR ABOVE AVG TEMPS LOOK NO FURTHER THEN TUE AND WED...AS 570-582
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES RETURN TO THE REGION. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONVECTIVE ACTION THIS JUNCTURE APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PRE-COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFT KICKING OFF CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN HALF OF MN ON THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TREMENDOUS SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO
INDICATED THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY
MN FA. MODEL QPF VALUES STILL INDICATING A GOOD SHOT OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS SCATTERED PORTIONS
OF CWA BY FRI MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SEE THE MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS
DEPART THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. DIURNAL MIXING IS ERODING THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK AT THE CURRENT TIME... WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS BECOME BKN VFR FROM KMSP EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON... AND ACTUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM KMSP WESTWARD BY MID
AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT... WITH KEAU SEEING THE
CEILINGS STICK AROUND INTO EARLY EVENING. RETURN FLOW AND AN SHARP
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS BACK
IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA KNOCKING ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ONCE SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME CALM. OVERALL... WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE
PERIOD... BUT THEY WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS A RESULT.
THANKS TO CWSU ZMP FOR COLLABORATION.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AJZ/TRH
000
FXUS63 KMPX 022059
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD BANK OF STRATCU STILL IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
WI...DUE TO STACKED 50H AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ABOVE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. IR INDICATING THIN DECK WILL FINALLY DISINTEGRATE NEAR
OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. LOOKING FORWARD INTO
FRIDAY BRINGS US TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER FAR SW MN IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVERTED TROUGH MECHANISM.
50H TROUGH PROVIDES ANOTHER LIFTING MECHANISM FOR CHANCE POPS
ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL MN AND PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL WI. USED 305K SURFACE ANAL PER GFS40 ONCE AGAIN FOR
PAINTING PCPN CHANCES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOLID DIVERGENCE
COUPLET NOTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE CENTRAL MN IN RESPONSE TO
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 100KT JET MAX SIGHTED JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. AS NOTED YESTERDAY FARMERS AND LAWN ENTHUSIASTS ALIKE
SHOULD MAINLY EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM BOTH SYSTEMS
MENTIONED ABOVE. 850MB LI`S ALSO INDICATING BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IN A 50 MILE RADIUS OF ST CLOUD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM COULD SKEW TREND MENTIONED ABOVE BY DROPPING UP TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH THIS TIME FRAME. 4TH OF JULY REVELERS
TAKE HEART...MOST OF REGION WILL BE STORM FREE AND MOSTLY
CLEAR BY THE MID EVENING HOURS.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER STACKED SURFACE AND 50MB LOW PRESSURE AREA TO
PLUNGE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STORM
SYSTEM REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE. THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PCPN ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK TROF ORBITTING AROUND
AFOREMENTIONED VORTEX IN ONTARIO. IMPRESSIVE 50H RIDGE FINALLY
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER MN ON TUESDAY...WITH MDT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF NOTEWORTHY 994 SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVING INTO NODAK ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONVECTIVE ACTION THIS JUNCTURE APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PRE-COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFT KICKING OFF CHANCE POPS SOUTHERN HALF OF MN ON THURSDAY AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SCATTERED PORTIONS OF CWA
BY FRI MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SEE THE MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS
DEPART THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. DIURNAL MIXING IS ERODING THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK AT THE CURRENT TIME... WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS BECOME BKN VFR FROM KMSP EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON... AND ACTUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM KMSP WESTWARD BY MID
AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT... WITH KEAU SEEING THE
CEILINGS STICK AROUND INTO EARLY EVENING. RETURN FLOW AND AN SHARP
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS BACK
IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA KNOCKING ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ONCE SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME CALM. OVERALL... WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE
PERIOD... BUT THEY WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS A RESULT.
THANKS TO CWSU ZMP FOR COLLABORATION.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
AJZ/TRH
000
FXUS63 KDLH 022051
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
351 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED OUR FCST OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OUT TOMORROW...AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS SRN CANADA. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH...SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODERATING
INTO THE 70S FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS.
.EXTENDED...SUN NITE THRU THU...
MODELS AGREE IN TRANSITIONING FROM NW FLOW ON MON TO SHARP UPR
LVL RIDGE ON TUE. KEPT MON/TUE DRY FOR NOW DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND LACK OF LOLVL MSTR. BY WED UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE E
ALLOWING S/WV IMPULSES TO APPROACH FROM THE SW CONTRIBUTING SOME
UPR LVL DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION. IN THE LOLVLS EXPECT INCRSG SLY
FLOW/MSTR ADVECTION/ISENT LIFT. THEREFORE HAVE SLGT OR LOW CHC
POPS FOR WED/THU. DETAILS STILL A BIT VAGUE THIS FAR OUT...BUT
MODELS INDICATING THE SAME GENERAL IDEA...ALTHOUGH GFS DEVELOPS A
MUCH STRONGER SFC SYSTEM THAN ECMWF BY WED NITE IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONGER UPR LVL S/WV.
&&
.AVIATION...PERSISTENT ST/SC CLD DECK FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
BREAKING UP OR MOVG OUT AS UPR LVL RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. ALL TAF SITES SHUD SEE MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
EARLY EVE IF NOT ALREADY THERE. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF TAF PD ALG WITH LIGHT WINDS...VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY
FROM THE NW.
&&
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 52 73 50 73 / 10 10 10 10
INL 46 73 46 72 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 55 76 52 75 / 10 10 10 20
HYR 51 76 48 77 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 50 74 49 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
$$
BERDES/04
000
FXUS63 KMPX 021637
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1137 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE...
WITH THE BACK EDGE BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT A DIURNAL MIXING LOOK.
EXPECT THIS WESTERN EDGE TO MIX OUT MORE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
THE ENTIRE SHIELD OF CLOUDS STARTS TO SLIP EASTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER RATE AS UPPER RIDGING INCHES EASTWARD AND LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEPARTS. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY... BUT ALL OF THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES SHOULD
MANAGE TO SEE SUNSHINE AS THE DAY UNFOLDS. SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE
AS THEY TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
OVER OUR AREA. WILL STICK CLOSE TO CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TODAY... AND ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS ALONG
WITH CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SEE THE MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS
DEPART THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. DIURNAL MIXING IS ERODING THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK AT THE CURRENT TIME... WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS BECOME BKN VFR FROM KMSP EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON... AND ACTUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM KMSP WESTWARD BY MID
AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT... WITH KEAU SEEING THE
CEILINGS STICK AROUND INTO EARLY EVENING. RETURN FLOW AND AN SHARP
INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES WILL BRING SOME MID CLOUDS BACK
IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY... WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA KNOCKING ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD IMPACT THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ONCE SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME CALM. OVERALL... WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE
PERIOD... BUT THEY WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AS A RESULT.
THANKS TO CWSU ZMP FOR COLLABORATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
THE PERSISTENT LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL CRAWL SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST TODAY...AND ALLOW THE WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD
LESS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BETWEEN
+12C AND +14C ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD SNEAK ABOVE 80 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI...WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH SLIDES FROM CENTRAL SD ACROSS THE SW TIP OF MN
INTO IA. ALTHOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO BE DISPLACED
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN NEBRASKA AND SWRN IOWA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE NAM /AND GFS TO A LESSER
EXTENT/ PROG FAINT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K SURFACE. HAVE
RETAINED 20 POPS ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND
00Z SAT.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LLVL RH IS LACKING AND CONVERGENCE/FORCING NEGLIGIBLE...SO EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20 POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY...AND
KEPT THE SURROUNDING PERIODS DRY. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY EVE/NIGHT...WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY...WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A FORCING MECHANISM
TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FROM
RIDGE RIDERS TOWARD MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN A SUB-1000MB LOW
BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE DAKOTAS...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN TAKE ON A NOTABLE WARMING TREND TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH 02.00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG H85
TEMPS BETWEEN +20C AND +22C ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
CORRELATE TO HIGHS CIRCA 90 DEGREES.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
TRH/LS
000
FXUS63 KMPX 021453
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
953 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE...
WITH THE BACK EDGE BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT A DIURNAL MIXING LOOK.
EXPECT THIS WESTERN EDGE TO MIX OUT MORE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
THE ENTIRE SHIELD OF CLOUDS STARTS TO SLIP EASTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER RATE AS UPPER RIDGING INCHES EASTWARD AND LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW DEPARTS. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY... BUT ALL OF THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES SHOULD
MANAGE TO SEE SUNSHINE AS THE DAY UNFOLDS. SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE
AS THEY TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
OVER OUR AREA. WILL STICK CLOSE TO CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TODAY... AND ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS ALONG
WITH CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STILL RELATIVELY MOIST...SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE NORTH THIS MORNING OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISC.
SOME DRYING AND MORE NW FLOW SHOULD HELP BREAK UP LOW VFR AND SOME
MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN MN BY AROUND 18Z...BUT LATER TOWARD KEAU
ROUGHLY 22Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH MORE SFC RIDGING FOR REST OF AREA
TODAY...AND PERSISTING FRO REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ADVECTION WORKING INTO SW MN TOWARD END OF PERIOD BUT
ONLY MID LEVEL CIGS AT THIS POINT...MAINLY TOWARD KRWF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
THE PERSISTENT LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL CRAWL SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST TODAY...AND ALLOW THE WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD
LESS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BETWEEN
+12C AND +14C ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD SNEAK ABOVE 80 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI...WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH SLIDES FROM CENTRAL SD ACROSS THE SW TIP OF MN
INTO IA. ALTHOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO BE DISPLACED
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN NEBRASKA AND SWRN IOWA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE NAM /AND GFS TO A LESSER
EXTENT/ PROG FAINT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K SURFACE. HAVE
RETAINED 20 POPS ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND
00Z SAT.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LLVL RH IS LACKING AND CONVERGENCE/FORCING NEGLIGIBLE...SO EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20 POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY...AND
KEPT THE SURROUNDING PERIODS DRY. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY EVE/NIGHT...WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY...WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A FORCING MECHANISM
TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FROM
RIDGE RIDERS TOWARD MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN A SUB-1000MB LOW
BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE DAKOTAS...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN TAKE ON A NOTABLE WARMING TREND TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH 02.00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG H85
TEMPS BETWEEN +20C AND +22C ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
CORRELATE TO HIGHS CIRCA 90 DEGREES.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
TRH/JPR/LS
000
FXUS63 KMPX 021144
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
ADDED 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE PERSISTENT LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE HURON WILL CRAWL SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST TODAY...AND ALLOW THE WESTERN CONUS MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD
LESS LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. H85 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BETWEEN
+12C AND +14C ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD SNEAK ABOVE 80 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI...WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL PERSIST.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH SLIDES FROM CENTRAL SD ACROSS THE SW TIP OF MN
INTO IA. ALTHOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO BE DISPLACED
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN NEBRASKA AND SWRN IOWA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE NAM /AND GFS TO A LESSER
EXTENT/ PROG FAINT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K SURFACE. HAVE
RETAINED 20 POPS ACROSS WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND
00Z SAT.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NOSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LLVL RH IS LACKING AND CONVERGENCE/FORCING NEGLIGIBLE...SO EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20 POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY...AND
KEPT THE SURROUNDING PERIODS DRY. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY EVE/NIGHT...WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY...WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF A FORCING MECHANISM
TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION FROM
RIDGE RIDERS TOWARD MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN A SUB-1000MB LOW
BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE DAKOTAS...PER BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND THEN TAKE ON A NOTABLE WARMING TREND TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BOTH 02.00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG H85
TEMPS BETWEEN +20C AND +22C ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LIKELY
CORRELATE TO HIGHS CIRCA 90 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
STILL RELATIVELY MOIST...SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE NORTH THIS MORNING OVER EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISC. SOME DRYING AND MORE NW FLOW SHOULD HELP BREAK UP LOW VFR
AND SOME MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN MN BY AROUND 18Z...BUT LATER
TOWARD KEAU ROUGHLY 22Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH MORE SFC RIDGING FOR
REST OF AREA TODAY...AND PERSISTING FRO REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ADVECTION WORKING INTO SW MN TOWARD END OF
PERIOD BUT ONLY MID LEVEL CIGS AT THIS POINT...MAINLY TOWARD KRWF.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
LS/JPR
| 
