[top]
000
FXUS63 KSGF 040439
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTHERN MO WEST INTO
NEB/KS AS SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH LIFT NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER
KS. SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE AIDING IN PRODUCING SOME AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN KS IS THE MORE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM
CONCERN. WHILE AVERAGE MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK SOMEWHAT
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE/MOVE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...OR AT LEAST A BIT MORE
SOUTH OF EAST WITH TIME LATER TONIGHT. ADDED POPS TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT AND ADDED A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO. OVERALL HEAVIER PRECIP THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY/JULY 4TH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE BUSY AS FRONT MOVES BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LEFT OVER PRECIP FROM TONIGHT`S
CONVECTION WILL MUDDY THE WATERS AS FAR AS TEMPERATURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE CONCERNED. NEW WRF HOLDS TONIGHT`S CONVECTION
TOGETHER...AND MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE DAY WEARS ON
SATURDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXISTING CONVECTION
AS THE ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. OBVIOUSLY
WILL BE WATCHING THE MESOSCALE FACTORS CLOSELY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. DSA
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS TRACKED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MOST OF
THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
1930Z...THIS BAND WAS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS...PRIMED TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS DRY WEATHER WILL QUICKLY TURN STORMY ON SATURDAY. PARTICULARLY
IF THE FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE HEATING OF
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE
MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT...I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
OCCUR FOR AN EPISODE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS TO A CERTAIN
EXTENT. SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND
SHIFT QUICKLY INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ELECTED TO LOWER POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE FRONT IN OK AND
AR. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...I ELIMINATED POPS FROM SUNDAYS
FORECAST ALTOGETHER. SHOULD BE A GREAT 2ND HALF OF THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT WITH BUILDING THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE
SEASONAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S. AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
WILL CREEP WELL INTO THE 90S. THIS HEAT WAVE MAY NOT BE SO
OPPRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS FORECASTED...COMPARED TO THE
MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE.
NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0600Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING. INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN BOTH TAFS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING UNTIL 14Z. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING...LIKELY STILL NORTH OF THE TAF SITES SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/SPREAD SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN MO LATE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
DROPS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE MO OZARKS REGION BY EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LOWER POST FRONTAL CEILINGS
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE SOME MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KLSX 040250
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
950 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
/950 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
STORMS FIRING UP ALL THE WAY BACK INTO CNTRL KS...INVOF LO PRES IN
KS...AND THIS EXTENDS EWD THRU NRN MO ATTM. WHILE RECENT MODEL
TRENDS HAVE PLACED THE HEAVY QPF AXIS FURTHER N INTO IA WITH EACH
RUN...RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN OTHERWISE...WITH THE HEAVY QPF
SETTING UP MORE INTO NRN MO. EVEN WITH A PUSH NEWD LATER
TONIGHT...FORWARD PROPAGATING VECTORS WILL MITIGATE THIS NEWD PUSH
AND FORCE A MORE DUE E MIGRATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TRAINING CELLS IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE THRU THE COLUMN
WILL PROMOTE HI-EFFICIENCY RAIN PRODUCING CELLS AND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHCS FOR FLASH FLOODING ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN
NERN MO AND WCNTRL IL. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FFA FOR SOME
ADVANCED NOTICE.
AREAS FURTHER S TOWARDS I-70 ARE NOT OUT-OF-THE-WOODS THOUGH...AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO THIS AREA AS WELL...BUT THIS WILL HAPPEN FOR MOST OF THESE
AREAS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR AFTER SR SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME ISOLD SVR THREAT STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS.
TES
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/407 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WL BE POPS FOR TNGT AND TMW. AREA OF SHRA
ACROSS CNTL MO IS EXP TO PERSIST FOR INTO THE EVE HOURS ACROSS SERN
MO. OTHERWISE...CVNTN ACROSS NRN KS SHUD LIFT NWD INTO SRN NEB AND
SLIDE INTO SRN IA AND NRN MO. EXPECT CVNTN TO REACH NR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CVNTN WL PROBABLY SPREAD SWD TO THE
I-70 CORRIDOR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS LLJ VEERS WITH STRONG WAA
EXTENDING SWD TO STL REGION.
CVNTN SHUD BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR IL COUNTIES TMW MRNG. TSRA SHUD
DIMINISH DURING THE MRNG HOURS AND POSSIBLY LEAVE A BRIEF DRY BREAK
DURING THE AFTN HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MDLS PLACE THE SFC FNT
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN. COVERAGE FOR CVNTN
DURING THE AFTN HOURS IS UNCERTAIN. MDLS INDICATE FAIRLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHUD HELP LIMIT COVERAGE. CDFNT WL CONT TO PUSH
SWD AND BE INTO NRN AR BY SUN MRNG. FCST IS DRY FOR SUN AND BEYOND.
AS FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM...SAT SHUD BE RATHER COOL AS SHRA
LINGERS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS SHUD REBOUND QUICKLY AND BE IN THE LWR
TO MID 80S BY MON.
FOR THE EXTD...WX PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT SHUD REMAIN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THE SFC
HIGH SLIDES E ON WED...SLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH A LARGE UPA RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
00Z EMCWF/CMC AND 06Z GFS AGREE WELL OUT TO THUR EVE. BY 06Z
THUR...GFS BEGINS TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THEREFORE
TRENDED TWD THE ECMWF. WITH THE LARGE UPA RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...HAVE PUSHED TEMPS ABV MUCH OF THE GUIDE FOR THIS TIME. STILL
A LOT OF TIME REMAINS...BUT THE SETUP APPEARS TO BE THE START OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPS IN MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE
CENTURY MARK. THE CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE DWPTS WHICH THE MDLS
DISAGREE ON. EVEN WITH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DRY...RETURN FLOW SHUD HELP
BRING DWPTS IN THE UPR 60S INTO THE REGION.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...
/700 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...RESIDUAL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TAF SITES. WILL JUST SEE MID/HI CLOUDS...MAYBE
A FEW SPRINKLES...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX THIS EVENING. MAIN
ACTION STILL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT WHEN AN MCS/COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST
MISSOURI IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING VIA A 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE TRACKING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET AND MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROF. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET THAT
KUIN SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA...TIMING CONTINUES TO BE IN
QUESTION...SO BACKED OFF ON TEMPO GROUP EVEN MORE WITH 09Z-13Z
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR KCOU...COULD SEE ACTIVITY THERE FROM 11Z TO 15Z
AND FOR KSUS/KSTL...RWS/TRWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13Z-17Z. AFTER THAT
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HARD TO PIN POINT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSAGE...SO JUST ADDED CB/VCNTY TS MENTION WITH FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND 21Z AT KUIN...22Z AT KCOU AND AROUND 00Z FOR
KSUS/KSTL.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-
MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
PIKE IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 040246
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
946 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTHERN MO WEST INTO
NEB/KS AS SHORTWAVES INTERACT WITH LIFT NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER
KS. SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE AIDING IN PRODUCING SOME AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN KS IS THE MORE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM
CONCERN. WHILE AVERAGE MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK SOMEWHAT
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP/PROPAGATE/MOVE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...OR AT LEAST A BIT MORE
SOUTH OF EAST WITH TIME LATER TONIGHT. ADDED POPS TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EARLIER IN THE SHIFT AND ADDED A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO. OVERALL HEAVIER PRECIP THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH.
SATURDAY/JULY 4TH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE BUSY AS FRONT MOVES BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LEFT OVER PRECIP FROM TONIGHT`S
CONVECTION WILL MUDDY THE WATERS AS FAR AS TEMPERATURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE CONCERNED. NEW WRF HOLDS TONIGHT`S CONVECTION
TOGETHER...AND MAY SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE DAY WEARS ON
SATURDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXISTING CONVECTION
AS THE ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. OBVIOUSLY
WILL BE WATCHING THE MESOSCALE FACTORS CLOSELY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. DSA
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS TRACKED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MOST OF
THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
1930Z...THIS BAND WAS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS...PRIMED TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS DRY WEATHER WILL QUICKLY TURN STORMY ON SATURDAY. PARTICULARLY
IF THE FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE HEATING OF
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE
MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT...I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
OCCUR FOR AN EPISODE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS TO A CERTAIN
EXTENT. SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND
SHIFT QUICKLY INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ELECTED TO LOWER POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE FRONT IN OK AND
AR. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...I ELIMINATED POPS FROM SUNDAYS
FORECAST ALTOGETHER. SHOULD BE A GREAT 2ND HALF OF THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT WITH BUILDING THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE
SEASONAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S. AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
WILL CREEP WELL INTO THE 90S. THIS HEAT WAVE MAY NOT BE SO
OPPRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS FORECASTED...COMPARED TO THE
MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE.
NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0000Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. PROGGED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUPPORT THE MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...08Z-
14Z...AND COULD SEE SOME MODERATE WIND GUSTS AS MIXING OCCURS
AFTER 14Z. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH WITH SHRA/TSTM CHANCES
INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ONCE WEAK CAPPING BREAKS
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/18Z. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 040000
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
700 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/407 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WL BE POPS FOR TNGT AND TMW. AREA OF SHRA
ACROSS CNTL MO IS EXP TO PERSIST FOR INTO THE EVE HOURS ACROSS SERN
MO. OTHERWISE...CVNTN ACROSS NRN KS SHUD LIFT NWD INTO SRN NEB AND
SLIDE INTO SRN IA AND NRN MO. EXPECT CVNTN TO REACH NR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CVNTN WL PROBABLY SPREAD SWD TO THE
I-70 CORRIDOR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS LLJ VEERS WITH STRONG WAA
EXTENDING SWD TO STL REGION.
CVNTN SHUD BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR IL COUNTIES TMW MRNG. TSRA SHUD
DIMINISH DURING THE MRNG HOURS AND POSSIBLY LEAVE A BRIEF DRY BREAK
DURING THE AFTN HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MDLS PLACE THE SFC FNT
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN. COVERAGE FOR CVNTN
DURING THE AFTN HOURS IS UNCERTAIN. MDLS INDICATE FAIRLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHUD HELP LIMIT COVERAGE. CDFNT WL CONT TO PUSH
SWD AND BE INTO NRN AR BY SUN MRNG. FCST IS DRY FOR SUN AND BEYOND.
AS FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM...SAT SHUD BE RATHER COOL AS SHRA
LINGERS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS SHUD REBOUND QUICKLY AND BE IN THE LWR
TO MID 80S BY MON.
FOR THE EXTD...WX PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT SHUD REMAIN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THE SFC
HIGH SLIDES E ON WED...SLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH A LARGE UPA RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
00Z EMCWF/CMC AND 06Z GFS AGREE WELL OUT TO THUR EVE. BY 06Z
THUR...GFS BEGINS TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THEREFORE
TRENDED TWD THE ECMWF. WITH THE LARGE UPA RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...HAVE PUSHED TEMPS ABV MUCH OF THE GUIDE FOR THIS TIME. STILL
A LOT OF TIME REMAINS...BUT THE SETUP APPEARS TO BE THE START OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPS IN MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE
CENTURY MARK. THE CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE DWPTS WHICH THE MDLS
DISAGREE ON. EVEN WITH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DRY...RETURN FLOW SHUD HELP
BRING DWPTS IN THE UPR 60S INTO THE REGION.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...
/700 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...RESIDUAL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TAF SITES. WILL JUST SEE MID/HI CLOUDS...MAYBE
A FEW SPRINKLES...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX THIS EVENING. MAIN
ACTION STILL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT WHEN AN MCS/COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST
MISSOURI IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING VIA A 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE TRACKING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET AND MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROF. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET THAT
KUIN SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA...TIMING CONTINUES TO BE IN
QUESTION...SO BACKED OFF ON TEMPO GROUP EVEN MORE WITH 09Z-13Z
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR KCOU...COULD SEE ACTIVITY THERE FROM 11Z TO 15Z
AND FOR KSUS/KSTL...RWS/TRWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 13Z-17Z. AFTER THAT
ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HARD TO PIN POINT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSAGE...SO JUST ADDED CB/VCNTY TS MENTION WITH FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND 21Z AT KUIN...22Z AT KCOU AND AROUND 00Z FOR
KSUS/KSTL.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
000
FXUS63 KEAX 032349
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
649 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/412 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE FOCUSED ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AFTER WHICH DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THAT BROUGHT THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...HAS SHIFTED EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
PERSISTED IN KEEPING THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MORE NOTABLE ACTIVITY WAS SPARKED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE SOUTHERLY H8
WINDS WERE FOCUSING THE BEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. AS
A RESULT...A SMALL LINE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI BEFORE 00Z THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED OVER OUR SECTION OF
THE PLAINS TODAY HAS LEFT THE REGION DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING MUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...SO MORE AFTERNOON -OR EVEN EARLY EVENING
ACTIVITY- IS NOT EXPECTED. FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT FOR HELP FROM A WARM FRONT...THAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTH INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.
WARM FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY
BOWED ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN
THE WARM SECTOR HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE MID 90S OVER DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60 DEGREE RANGE. RESULTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000+
J/KG HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO SPARK MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS...BUT CURRENT TRAJECTORIES OF THESE STORMS
HAVE THEM MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO NOT DIRECTLY THREATENING ANY
OF OUR FORECAST REGION THE EVENING. LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE
ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY STARTING IN WEST KANSAS...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AS THIS COMPLEX DEVELOPS IT WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT THAT WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO PLACE
ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER...UTILIZING THE ONSET OF THE
NOCTURNAL JET OVERNIGHT TO REALLY GET THINGS GOING. LACK OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS ANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
NOCTURNAL JET MIGHT BE ABLE TO FEED IN ENOUGH UNSTABLE AIR FROM DOWN
SOUTH TO MAKE DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...LIKE NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...IMBALANCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD HIGHLY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AS A GUST FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
QUICKLY GET AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX...MITIGATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
36.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR.
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS IS NOT THE BEST AT THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND AN INCH IN THE CWA -AND 1.25
INCHES JUST TO OUR SOUTH- INDICATE THAT AS THE NOCTURNAL JET RUNS
OVER THE ANTICIPATED EAST SOUTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT THERE COULD BE
SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT
RIDES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE -ONE HOUR VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES- SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
UNLESS SEVERAL STRONG STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
FOR SATURDAY...THE COLD POOL FROM ONGOING EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...TRUE FRONT WILL WAIT FOR A
PROPER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE BY IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST BORDERS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...TAKING ANY POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT.
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE PLEASANT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
CUTTER
NAM/GFS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL LEAVE POPS AT JUST BELOW THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AS MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...TIMING AND LOCATION WISE.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF LATER
SHIFTS ADDED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOW LEVEL LEE TROUGH INDUCING STRONG
WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR EACH DAY...MAINLY WED-FRIDAY. FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE...THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
INCREASES.
33
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KANSAS CITY
TERMINALS TO LAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT KSTJ MAY SEE
STORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MELDS
WITH CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE
CURRENT CONVECTION HELPING TO DRIVE THE STORMS CLOSER TO THAT TAF
SITE. FOR KANSAS CITY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER WRF/RUC VERSION
OF THE STORMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AS THINK THE SHORT WAVE IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE WAVE IN NEBRASKA WILL BE THE COMBINED
FORCES AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 09Z.
THIS SHOULD PULL THE WARM FRONT INTO THE KANSAS CITY SITES AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND THINKING THAT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONGER
STORMS IN THE METRO AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME
MENTION OF THUNDER OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES PAST.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 032343
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS TRACKED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MOST OF
THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
1930Z...THIS BAND WAS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS...PRIMED TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS DRY WEATHER WILL QUICKLY TURN STORMY ON SATURDAY. PARTICULARLY
IF THE FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE HEATING OF
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE
MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT...I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
OCCUR FOR AN EPISODE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS TO A CERTAIN
EXTENT. SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND
SHIFT QUICKLY INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ELECTED TO LOWER POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE FRONT IN OK AND
AR. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...I ELIMINATED POPS FROM SUNDAYS
FORECAST ALTOGETHER. SHOULD BE A GREAT 2ND HALF OF THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT WITH BUILDING THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE
SEASONAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S. AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
WILL CREEP WELL INTO THE 90S. THIS HEAT WAVE MAY NOT BE SO
OPPRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS FORECASTED...COMPARED TO THE
MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE.
NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0000Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. PROGGED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUPPORT THE MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...08Z-
14Z...AND COULD SEE SOME MODERATE WIND GUSTS AS MIXING OCCURS
AFTER 14Z. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH WITH SHRA/TSTM CHANCES
INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ONCE WEAK CAPPING BREAKS
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/18Z. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 032112
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
412 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE FOCUSED ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AFTER WHICH DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...THAT BROUGHT THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...HAS SHIFTED EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
PERSISTED IN KEEPING THE SHOWERS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MORE NOTABLE ACTIVITY WAS SPARKED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE SOUTHERLY H8
WINDS WERE FOCUSING THE BEST MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. AS
A RESULT...A SMALL LINE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI BEFORE 00Z THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED OVER OUR SECTION OF
THE PLAINS TODAY HAS LEFT THE REGION DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING MUCH COOLER THAN
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...SO MORE AFTERNOON -OR EVEN EARLY EVENING
ACTIVITY- IS NOT EXPECTED. FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT FOR HELP FROM A WARM FRONT...THAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTH INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.
WARM FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IS CURRENTLY
BOWED ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN
THE WARM SECTOR HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE MID 90S OVER DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60 DEGREE RANGE. RESULTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000+
J/KG HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO SPARK MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS...BUT CURRENT TRAJECTORIES OF THESE STORMS
HAVE THEM MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...SO NOT DIRECTLY THREATENING ANY
OF OUR FORECAST REGION THE EVENING. LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE
ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY STARTING IN WEST KANSAS...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. AS THIS COMPLEX DEVELOPS IT WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT THAT WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO PLACE
ALONG THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER...UTILIZING THE ONSET OF THE
NOCTURNAL JET OVERNIGHT TO REALLY GET THINGS GOING. LACK OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS ANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
NOCTURNAL JET MIGHT BE ABLE TO FEED IN ENOUGH UNSTABLE AIR FROM DOWN
SOUTH TO MAKE DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...LIKE NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...IMBALANCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD HIGHLY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AS A GUST FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
QUICKLY GET AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX...MITIGATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 OVERNIGHT OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
36.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR.
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS IS NOT THE BEST AT THIS TIME...BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND AN INCH IN THE CWA -AND 1.25
INCHES JUST TO OUR SOUTH- INDICATE THAT AS THE NOCTURNAL JET RUNS
OVER THE ANTICIPATED EAST SOUTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT THERE COULD BE
SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT
RIDES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE -ONE HOUR VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES- SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
UNLESS SEVERAL STRONG STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
FOR SATURDAY...THE COLD POOL FROM ONGOING EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO PUSH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...TRUE FRONT WILL WAIT FOR A
PROPER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE BY IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST BORDERS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...TAKING ANY POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT.
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE PLEASANT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
CUTTER
NAM/GFS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL LEAVE POPS AT JUST BELOW THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AS MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...TIMING AND LOCATION WISE.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF LATER
SHIFTS ADDED SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOW LEVEL LEE TROUGH INDUCING STRONG
WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR EACH DAY...MAINLY WED-FRIDAY. FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE...THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
INCREASES.
33
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS. EXPECT CONDITIONS AT THE
KANSAS CITY TERMINALS TO LIFT INTO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE KSTJ TERMINAL
MIGHT SEE SOME CONTINUED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ACTIVITY MOVING
EAST ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER...THOUGH WILL LIMIT MVFR TO
JUST A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ALONG INTERSTATE 70 PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. BEST
POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE AROUND AND NORTH OF THE KSTJ TERMINAL...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN KANSAS CITY TONIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO ONLY ADD VICINITY THUNDER FOR NOW STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE NOCTURNAL JET GETS GOING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING...CLEARING THE
TERMINALS BY NOON. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE FOCUS OF ANY REMAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
CUTTER
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 032107
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
407 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/407 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WL BE POPS FOR TNGT AND TMW. AREA OF SHRA
ACROSS CNTL MO IS EXP TO PERSIST FOR INTO THE EVE HOURS ACROSS SERN
MO. OTHERWISE...CVNTN ACROSS NRN KS SHUD LIFT NWD INTO SRN NEB AND
SLIDE INTO SRN IA AND NRN MO. EXPECT CVNTN TO REACH NR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CVNTN WL PROBABLY SPREAD SWD TO THE
I-70 CORRIDOR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS LLJ VEERS WITH STRONG WAA
EXTENDING SWD TO STL REGION.
CVNTN SHUD BE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR IL COUNTIES TMW MRNG. TSRA SHUD
DIMINISH DURING THE MRNG HOURS AND POSSIBLY LEAVE A BRIEF DRY BREAK
DURING THE AFTN HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MDLS PLACE THE SFC FNT
ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN. COVERAGE FOR CVNTN
DURING THE AFTN HOURS IS UNCERTAIN. MDLS INDICATE FAIRLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHUD HELP LIMIT COVERAGE. CDFNT WL CONT TO PUSH
SWD AND BE INTO NRN AR BY SUN MRNG. FCST IS DRY FOR SUN AND BEYOND.
AS FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM...SAT SHUD BE RATHER COOL AS SHRA
LINGERS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS SHUD REBOUND QUICKLY AND BE IN THE LWR
TO MID 80S BY MON.
FOR THE EXTD...WX PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT SHUD REMAIN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THE SFC
HIGH SLIDES E ON WED...SLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH A LARGE UPA RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
00Z EMCWF/CMC AND 06Z GFS AGREE WELL OUT TO THUR EVE. BY 06Z
THUR...GFS BEGINS TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THEREFORE
TRENDED TWD THE ECMWF. WITH THE LARGE UPA RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA...HAVE PUSHED TEMPS ABV MUCH OF THE GUIDE FOR THIS TIME. STILL
A LOT OF TIME REMAINS...BUT THE SETUP APPEARS TO BE THE START OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPS IN MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE
CENTURY MARK. THE CRITICAL ELEMENT WILL BE DWPTS WHICH THE MDLS
DISAGREE ON. EVEN WITH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DRY...RETURN FLOW SHUD HELP
BRING DWPTS IN THE UPR 60S INTO THE REGION.
TILLY
&&
.AVIATION...
/1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SSE. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THE MID/HI CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAA ZONE WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN
ACTION STILL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT WHEN AN MCS/COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF WRN IOWA/NORTHWEST
MISSOURI IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING VIA A 50+ KT SWLY LLJ. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE ESE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE
TRACKING ESE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY ON SAT MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE VEERING LLJ AND MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROF. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD BET THAT KUIN SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA...TIMING IS
JUST IN QUESTION...HENCE CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 GROUP. CONCUR WITH
PREVIOUS FCST THAT SOME TRAILING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND THUS ADDED A PROB
GROUP INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GLASS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 031933
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS TRACKED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MOST OF
THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
1930Z...THIS BAND WAS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS...PRIMED TO
SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS DRY WEATHER WILL QUICKLY TURN STORMY ON SATURDAY. PARTICULARLY
IF THE FRONT PRESSES INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE HEATING OF
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE
MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT...I BELIEVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
OCCUR FOR AN EPISODE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS TO A CERTAIN
EXTENT. SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND
SHIFT QUICKLY INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ELECTED TO LOWER POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE FRONT IN OK AND
AR. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER...I ELIMINATED POPS FROM SUNDAYS
FORECAST ALTOGETHER. SHOULD BE A GREAT 2ND HALF OF THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT WITH BUILDING THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME SHOULD BE
SEASONAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S. AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS
WILL CREEP WELL INTO THE 90S. THIS HEAT WAVE MAY NOT BE SO
OPPRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS FORECASTED...COMPARED TO THE
MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE.
NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE NEEDED BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST OF THE KSGF AND KJLN TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CEILINGS RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KSGF. A LOW LEVEL
JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z NEAR THE FRONT AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN
FOLLOWING TAF PACKAGES.
ANGLE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 031826
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
126 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS ONGOING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE KANSAS FLINT HILLS WHERE A SAMPLED
30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS IMPINGING ON A SHARP NW-SE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THROUGH THIS MORNING...A
GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER BUT MAINTAINS INTENSITY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW NEW UPDRAFTS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...BUT
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP
CONVECTION INTO THE AREA.
NAM-WRF ISENTROPIC PROGS BETWEEN 310-315K MAINTAIN THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPSTREAM WAVE. THUS...GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE W/SW...WILL TRANSLATE
POPS INTO THE CENTRAL TIER COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING THEM OFF. GIVEN THE WARM-RAIN SOUNDING PRESENTATIONS...
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR A FEW AREAS
ALONG THE KS/MO BORDERS TO PICK UP A QUICK HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.
ONCE THIS ELEVATED BAND OF CONVECTION DISSIPATES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS WILL THEN TOWARD NE KS/NRN MO AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND ASSUMES A MORE TYPICAL WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FASHION...TIED TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KANSAS.
SEVERAL FOCI FOR ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM NRN MO INTO
IOWA TONIGHT AS BOTH BOUNDARY LAYER AND ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONES WILL
BE IN PLAY...AIDED BY STRONG WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM.
BUOYANCY/KINEMATIC BALANCE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN GIVEN THE LACK
OF RICH LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUXTAPOSED
BENEATH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY ISNT HORRIBLE
BUT COULD CERTAINLY BE MORE ROBUST GIVEN THE SEASON...WHILE WIND
PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG FOR EARLY JULY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
OVER NE KS/NW MO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SHEAR/BUOYANCY IMBALANCE
LIKELY RESULTS IN A BLOWN OUT GUST FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/GUST FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE
BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY EAST SE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING...
ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM THE NORTHWEST. VEERED WARM
SECTOR FLOW REALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY FOR THE SRN ZONES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. PYROS AND
BARBEQUE-ERS ALIKE WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT AND DRY EVENING FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RESUME SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SATURDAY.
BOOKBINDER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING BEHIND THE EXITING STORMS. EXPECT CONDITIONS AT THE
KANSAS CITY TERMINALS TO LIFT INTO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE KSTJ TERMINAL
MIGHT SEE SOME CONTINUED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ACTIVITY MOVING
EAST ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER...THOUGH WILL LIMIT MVFR TO
JUST A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ALONG INTERSTATE 70 PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. BEST
POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE AROUND AND NORTH OF THE KSTJ TERMINAL...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN KANSAS CITY TONIGHT...BUT HAVE
OPTED TO ONLY ADD VICINITY THUNDER FOR NOW STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE NOCTURNAL JET GETS GOING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING...CLEARING THE
TERMINALS BY NOON. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE FOCUS OF ANY REMAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
CUTTER
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 031755
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT THE 310K SURFACE ON THE WRF THIS MORNING.
CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE WITH CELLS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THIS MORNING AS THE WRF SHOWS THIS AREA OF LIFT
MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST BY NOON.
FOR TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BEFORE THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH. BY 00Z...BOTH
THE GFS AND WRF DEPICTING CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION TO BE
ACROSS IOWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS WELL AS WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS
THAT SHOULD LIMIT US FROM GETTING TOO WARM AGAIN TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 45KTS SHOULD
REALLY KICK IN AND BRING US SIGNIFICANT WAA AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO +22C ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE UPPER 60S WITH MID 70 LOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT
SURFACE LOW AND TRACKS IT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI
BEFORE THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER SATURDAY EVENING. PROG SOUNDINGS KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
CAPPED FAIRLY WELL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO BREAK THE CAP. WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WRF
FORECASTING CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OZARKS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TREND OF SPEEDING UP THE FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. DID KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A WHILE SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
POSSIBLE STALLING OF THE FRONT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +15C
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD TUESDAY FOR A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.AVIATION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST OF THE KSGF AND KJLN TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CEILINGS RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KSGF. A LOW LEVEL
JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z NEAR THE FRONT AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN
FOLLOWING TAF PACKAGES.
ANGLE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 031712
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1211 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/415 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/ MOST OF THE ERYR NWP OUTPUT PLACED
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP FOR TONIGHT AND SAT MRNG ON A NW MO-SE MO
LINE...BUT ALL MODEL OUTPUT BASED ON 00Z UA DATA HAS SHIFTED THIS
AXIS N AND NE OF EARLIER SOLNS...ROUGHLY FROM IA INTO THE N HALF
OF IL. SEE NO REAL REASON TO QUIBBLE WITH THIS
ADJUSTMENT...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY I THINK
THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO DEFINE THE LOCATION OF MAX QPF.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED UP
IN THE WAA ZONE OVER E KS AND XTRM SW MO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
CONTINUE ITS SE MOVEMENT EARLY TODAY...AND THEN WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO THREATEN W SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
DID LEAVE SOME VERY LO POPS IN FOR FAR W/NW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAA AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THESE
AREAS...BUT CERTAINLY MAIN SHOW WILL BE TONIGHT.
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP OVER THE MID MO VALLEY
SHOULD MORPH INTO AN MCS OVER IOWA THIS EVENING...FUELED BY 50+
85H JET AND A FAIRLY STG SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO
AREA ON WNW UA FLOW. AMS APPEARS TO LOSE MUCH OF ITS INSTABILITY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT PERSISTENT STRONG FORCING OF LO LVL
JET SHOULD EASILY KEEP CONVECTION GOING INTO SAT MORNING. IF THE
MODEL QPFS ARE TO BE BELIEVED THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN N
OF OUR AREA...BUT THETA-E BULLSEYE SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIEST RAIN
COULD OCCUR A BIT FURTHER S...SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN IN OUR FAR N AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.
ON SAT...MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE INTO OUR E COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING AS W LO LVL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AMS INTO THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD THEN BECOME REFOCUSED OVER
OUR S AREAS AS LO LVL CONVERGENCE..EITHER WITH COLD FRONT OUR WITH
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION....INTERACTS WITH FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE TOMORROW AFTN...BUT
INSTABILITY OF AMS SUGGESTS MULTI-CELL SVR STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
NW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS AREA ON SUNDAY...GRADUALLY
DRAGGING MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW
STORMS IN S AREAS AND HAVE CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THIS THREAT.
TRUETT
&&
.AVIATION...
/1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
RESIDUAL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SSE. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT THE MID/HI CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAA ZONE WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN
ACTION STILL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT WHEN AN MCS/COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF WRN IOWA/NORTHWEST
MISSOURI IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING VIA A 50+ KT SWLY LLJ. THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE ESE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
INTO WEST CENTRAL IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE
TRACKING ESE TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY ON SAT MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE VEERING LLJ AND MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROF. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD BET THAT KUIN SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA...TIMING IS
JUST IN QUESTION...HENCE CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 GROUP. CONCUR WITH
PREVIOUS FCST THAT SOME TRAILING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND THUS ADDED A PROB
GROUP INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
GLASS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 031147
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
647 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/415 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/ MOST OF THE ERYR NWP OUTPUT PLACED
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP FOR TONIGHT AND SAT MRNG ON A NW MO-SE MO
LINE...BUT ALL MODEL OUTPUT BASED ON 00Z UA DATA HAS SHIFTED THIS
AXIS N AND NE OF EARLIER SOLNS...ROUGHLY FROM IA INTO THE N HALF
OF IL. SEE NO REAL REASON TO QUIBBLE WITH THIS
ADJUSTMENT...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY I THINK
THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO DEFINE THE LOCATION OF MAX QPF.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED UP
IN THE WAA ZONE OVER E KS AND XTRM SW MO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
CONTINUE ITS SE MOVEMENT EARLY TODAY...AND THEN WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO THREATEN W SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
DID LEAVE SOME VERY LO POPS IN FOR FAR W/NW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAA AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THESE
AREAS...BUT CERTAINLY MAIN SHOW WILL BE TONIGHT.
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP OVER THE MID MO VALLEY
SHOULD MORPH INTO AN MCS OVER IOWA THIS EVENING...FUELED BY 50+
85H JET AND A FAIRLY STG SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO
AREA ON WNW UA FLOW. AMS APPEARS TO LOSE MUCH OF ITS INSTABILITY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT PERSISTENT STRONG FORCING OF LO LVL
JET SHOULD EASILY KEEP CONVECTION GOING INTO SAT MORNING. IF THE
MODEL QPFS ARE TO BE BELIEVED THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN N
OF OUR AREA...BUT THETA-E BULLSEYE SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIEST RAIN
COULD OCCUR A BIT FURTHER S...SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN IN OUR FAR N AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.
ON SAT...MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE INTO OUR E COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING AS W LO LVL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AMS INTO THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD THEN BECOME REFOCUSED OVER
OUR S AREAS AS LO LVL CONVERGENCE..EITHER WITH COLD FRONT OUR WITH
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION....INTERACTS WITH FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE TOMORROW AFTN...BUT
INSTABILITY OF AMS SUGGESTS MULTI-CELL SVR STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
NW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS AREA ON SUNDAY...GRADUALLY
DRAGGING MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW
STORMS IN S AREAS AND HAVE CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THIS THREAT.
TRUETT
&&
.AVIATION...
/637 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
EARLY MORNING RIVER-VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THROUGH
13Z THIS MORNING AS STRONG JULY SUNSHINE HEATS THE GROUND. REST OF
THE DAY LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERSPREADING
THE REGION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT WHEN A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI ON
THE NOSE OF A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. MODEL CONSENSUS IS PRETTY GOOD
WITH MOVING THIS COMPLEX EAST-SOUTH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME TRAILING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
AFFECT AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE...THO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN THAT POSSIBILITY JUST YET.
CARNEY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 031137
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
636 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS ONGOING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE KANSAS FLINT HILLS WHERE A SAMPLED
30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS IMPINGING ON A SHARP NW-SE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THROUGH THIS MORNING...A
GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER BUT MAINTAINS INTENSITY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW NEW UPDRAFTS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...BUT
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP
CONVECTION INTO THE AREA.
NAM-WRF ISENTROPIC PROGS BETWEEN 310-315K MAINTAIN THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPSTREAM WAVE. THUS...GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE W/SW...WILL TRANSLATE
POPS INTO THE CENTRAL TIER COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING THEM OFF. GIVEN THE WARM-RAIN SOUNDING PRESENTATIONS...
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR A FEW AREAS
ALONG THE KS/MO BORDERS TO PICK UP A QUICK HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.
ONCE THIS ELEVATED BAND OF CONVECTION DISSIPATES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS WILL THEN TOWARD NE KS/NRN MO AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND ASSUMES A MORE TYPICAL WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FASHION...TIED TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KANSAS.
SEVERAL FOCI FOR ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM NRN MO INTO
IOWA TONIGHT AS BOTH BOUNDARY LAYER AND ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONES WILL
BE IN PLAY...AIDED BY STRONG WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM.
BUOYANCY/KINEMATIC BALANCE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN GIVEN THE LACK
OF RICH LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUXTAPOSED
BENEATH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY ISNT HORRIBLE
BUT COULD CERTAINLY BE MORE ROBUST GIVEN THE SEASON...WHILE WIND
PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG FOR EARLY JULY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
OVER NE KS/NW MO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SHEAR/BUOYANCY IMBALANCE
LIKELY RESULTS IN A BLOWN OUT GUST FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/GUST FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE
BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY EAST SE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING...
ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM THE NORTHWEST. VEERED WARM
SECTOR FLOW REALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY FOR THE SRN ZONES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. PYROS AND
BARBEQUE-ERS ALIKE WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT AND DRY EVENING FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RESUME SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SATURDAY.
BOOKBINDER
&&
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED FROM 310K TO 315K WAS LEADING TO A
PERSISTENT YET SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...GENERALLY AROUND 14Z. THE CHALLENGE IS IF IT WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT DOES VENTURE TOWARD THE TAF SITES. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE LIFT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ITS
ANTICIPATED THAT THE LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI TO
HAVE THE BAND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT NOON. AFTER THE MORNING PRECIP
BREAKS UP/DIMINISHES THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET DUE TO
A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KS/SOUTHERN NE AND CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN MO. THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE
STJ BUT LATER IN THE EVENING STORMS MAY VENTURE INTO THE METRO
SITES. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY WITH VCTS GROUP.
CDB
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 031038
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT THE 310K SURFACE ON THE WRF THIS MORNING.
CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE WITH CELLS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THIS MORNING AS THE WRF SHOWS THIS AREA OF LIFT
MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST BY NOON.
FOR TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BEFORE THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH. BY 00Z...BOTH
THE GFS AND WRF DEPICTING CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION TO BE
ACROSS IOWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS WELL AS WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS
THAT SHOULD LIMIT US FROM GETTING TOO WARM AGAIN TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 45KTS SHOULD
REALLY KICK IN AND BRING US SIGNIFICANT WAA AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO +22C ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE UPPER 60S WITH MID 70 LOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT
SURFACE LOW AND TRACKS IT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI
BEFORE THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER SATURDAY EVENING. PROG SOUNDINGS KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
CAPPED FAIRLY WELL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO BREAK THE CAP. WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WRF
FORECASTING CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OZARKS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TREND OF SPEEDING UP THE FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. DID KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A WHILE SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
POSSIBLE STALLING OF THE FRONT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +15C
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD TUESDAY FOR A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
AS OF 1030Z. AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE JLN/SGF TERMINAL SITES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIPPING TO
AROUND 6000 FEET. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
LINDENBERG
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 030927
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
427 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/415 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/ MOST OF THE ERYR NWP OUTPUT PLACED
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP FOR TONIGHT AND SAT MRNG ON A NW MO-SE MO
LINE...BUT ALL MODEL OUTPUT BASED ON 00Z UA DATA HAS SHIFTED THIS
AXIS N AND NE OF EARLIER SOLNS...ROUGHLY FROM IA INTO THE N HALF
OF IL. SEE NO REAL REASON TO QUIBBLE WITH THIS
ADJUSTMENT...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY I THINK
THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO DEFINE THE LOCATION OF MAX QPF.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED UP
IN THE WAA ZONE OVER E KS AND XTRM SW MO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL
CONTINUE ITS SE MOVEMENT EARLY TODAY...AND THEN WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO THREATEN W SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
DID LEAVE SOME VERY LO POPS IN FOR FAR W/NW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAA AND SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THESE
AREAS...BUT CERTAINLY MAIN SHOW WILL BE TONIGHT.
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP OVER THE MID MO VALLEY
SHOULD MORPH INTO AN MCS OVER IOWA THIS EVENING...FUELED BY 50+
85H JET AND A FAIRLY STG SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO
AREA ON WNW UA FLOW. AMS APPEARS TO LOSE MUCH OF ITS INSTABILITY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT PERSISTENT STRONG FORCING OF LO LVL
JET SHOULD EASILY KEEP CONVECTION GOING INTO SAT MORNING. IF THE
MODEL QPFS ARE TO BE BELIEVED THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL REMAIN N
OF OUR AREA...BUT THETA-E BULLSEYE SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIEST RAIN
COULD OCCUR A BIT FURTHER S...SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN IN OUR FAR N AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.
ON SAT...MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE INTO OUR E COUNTIES
DURING THE MORNING AS W LO LVL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AMS INTO THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD THEN BECOME REFOCUSED OVER
OUR S AREAS AS LO LVL CONVERGENCE..EITHER WITH COLD FRONT OUR WITH
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION....INTERACTS WITH FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS CERTAINLY NOT IMPRESSIVE TOMORROW AFTN...BUT
INSTABILITY OF AMS SUGGESTS MULTI-CELL SVR STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.
NW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS AREA ON SUNDAY...GRADUALLY
DRAGGING MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW
STORMS IN S AREAS AND HAVE CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THIS THREAT.
TRUETT
&&
.AVIATION...
/1135 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS A DEVELOPING WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING...WILL
SEE CIRRUS SHIELD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR
KUIN...KSUS AND KSTL...STILL COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CU DUE TO UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION SO ADDED MENTION. ALSO...WINDS TO PICKUP
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENING...MID CLOUD DECK TO MOVE IN. FEEL THAT PCPN
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD...SO KEPT TAFS DRY FOR
NOW.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 030853
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS ONGOING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE KANSAS FLINT HILLS WHERE A SAMPLED
30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS IMPINGING ON A SHARP NW-SE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. THROUGH THIS MORNING...A
GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO VEER BUT MAINTAINS INTENSITY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW NEW UPDRAFTS TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...BUT
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP
CONVECTION INTO THE AREA.
NAM-WRF ISENTROPIC PROGS BETWEEN 310-315K MAINTAIN THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPSTREAM WAVE. THUS...GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF WARM AIR/MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE W/SW...WILL TRANSLATE
POPS INTO THE CENTRAL TIER COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING THEM OFF. GIVEN THE WARM-RAIN SOUNDING PRESENTATIONS...
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS
FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR A FEW AREAS
ALONG THE KS/MO BORDERS TO PICK UP A QUICK HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.
ONCE THIS ELEVATED BAND OF CONVECTION DISSIPATES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS WILL THEN TOWARD NE KS/NRN MO AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND ASSUMES A MORE TYPICAL WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FASHION...TIED TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KANSAS.
SEVERAL FOCI FOR ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM NRN MO INTO
IOWA TONIGHT AS BOTH BOUNDARY LAYER AND ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONES WILL
BE IN PLAY...AIDED BY STRONG WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM.
BUOYANCY/KINEMATIC BALANCE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN GIVEN THE LACK
OF RICH LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...JUXTAPOSED
BENEATH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY ISNT HORRIBLE
BUT COULD CERTAINLY BE MORE ROBUST GIVEN THE SEASON...WHILE WIND
PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG FOR EARLY JULY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
OVER NE KS/NW MO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SHEAR/BUOYANCY IMBALANCE
LIKELY RESULTS IN A BLOWN OUT GUST FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/GUST FRONT AND THE ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE
BOUNDARY WILL STEADILY EAST SE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING...
ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM THE NORTHWEST. VEERED WARM
SECTOR FLOW REALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY FOR THE SRN ZONES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. PYROS AND
BARBEQUE-ERS ALIKE WILL ENJOY A PLEASANT AND DRY EVENING FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL RESUME SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SATURDAY.
BOOKBINDER
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL BE SEEING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE TAF SITES BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALREADY HAVE
CONVECTION SHOWING UP IN KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFT. SHOULD BE
QUITE ELEVATED...AND GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD BE NEARING THE
TAF SITES...HAVE TO WONDER IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO KEEP STORMS GOING. WILL JUST KEEP THE VC MENTIONED
THAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE TRYING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES...NAM
AND GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT CIN...WITH JUST A VERY ELEVATED LAYER OF
INSTABILITY. SO NOT LOOKING FOR STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR DEVELOPMENT TOWARD OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO/UTAH AREA WORKING ITS
WAY SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 030801
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT THE 310K SURFACE ON THE WRF THIS MORNING.
CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE WITH CELLS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THIS MORNING AS THE WRF SHOWS THIS AREA OF LIFT
MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST BY NOON.
FOR TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BEFORE THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH. BY 00Z...BOTH
THE GFS AND WRF DEPICTING CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION TO BE
ACROSS IOWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS WELL AS WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS
THAT SHOULD LIMIT US FROM GETTING TOO WARM AGAIN TODAY. BY THIS
EVENING...LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 45KTS SHOULD
REALLY KICK IN AND BRING US SIGNIFICANT WAA AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO +22C ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE UPPER 60S WITH MID 70 LOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT
SURFACE LOW AND TRACKS IT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI
BEFORE THE FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER SATURDAY EVENING. PROG SOUNDINGS KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
CAPPED FAIRLY WELL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO BREAK THE CAP. WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WRF
FORECASTING CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI OZARKS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TREND OF SPEEDING UP THE FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. DID KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A WHILE SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
POSSIBLE STALLING OF THE FRONT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND +15C
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD TUESDAY FOR A RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0600Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KS...AND THIS CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND/OR FRI MORNING...MAINLY AFTER 11Z.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
BASED AND LIKELY WEAKENING BY THIS TIME...SO KEPT BOTH TAFS IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUPPORT THE MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN BOTH TAFS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ON
FRI EVENING.
DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 030435
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1135 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/320 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH MCS THAT WILL LIKELY ROLL ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. NAM/GFS LINE UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE OTHER
MODELS WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE GREAT LAKES VORTEX REALIGNS ITSELF NEWD AND WRN CONUS
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS AREA WILL LIE UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA WHEN BOTH THE
GFS/NAM SHOW INCREASING 925-850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER NRN MO. NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS OF THIS FORCING WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A BROAD
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET UNDER LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES JET.
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE GFS QPF SINCE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADAIAN PLACE THE BEST FORCING ALONG IT`S AXIS AND
PROGATION VECTORS FAVOR SEWD OR SSEWD MOVEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUDS DEPTHS WILL BE
BETWEEN 3-4KM WHICH WILL BE SUFFICENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MCS
CENTROID WILL BE NEAR KSTL AROUND 12Z SATURDAY BASED ON PLACEMENT
OF AFOREMENTIONED FORCING ON THE GFS/NAM...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION SATURDAY
MORNING. LACK OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS HAS ALLOWED 3/6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES TO CLIMB ABOVE 2.5 INCHES...SO SEE NO NEED
TO ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT ALONG EFFECTIVE FRONT.
HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR SRN PART OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS/NAM MOS ARE IN REALTIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES NEXT
FEW DAYS. LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY BASED ON EXPECTED LINGERING
CLOUDS AND MORNING PRECIPITATION FROM THE MCS.
HAVE GONE DRY IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. FOLLOWED MORE
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS AS IT HAS SHOWN BETTER
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. WEEKEND FRONT
WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BUILD
EWD PROVIDING THE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THEN CLIMB AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
TO NEAR 20C BY THURSDAY.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
/1135 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS A DEVELOPING WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING...WILL
SEE CIRRUS SHIELD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR
KUIN...KSUS AND KSTL...STILL COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CU DUE TO UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION SO ADDED MENTION. ALSO...WINDS TO PICKUP
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENING...MID CLOUD DECK TO MOVE IN. FEEL THAT PCPN
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD...SO KEPT TAFS DRY FOR
NOW.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 030433
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/331 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SFC RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE PARKED IN WRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING FM SWRN KS SE TO CNTRL ARK. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NRN TX IS RATHER MEAGER WITH ONLY A SLOW RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE THROUGH FRI NGT.
MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BEING HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE MODELS. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IN ERN WYOMING WILL PIVOT SE TONIGHT...GENERATING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WRN MO BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIP STEADILY DECREASING
DURING THE AFTN. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK WITH NO SVR WX EXPECTED.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN TRACKING THE WARM FRONT NORTH
INTO THE SRN OR CNTRL CWA FRI NGT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. MDT-STG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF I-70 FRI
NGT AS A BRISK LLJ DEVELOPS. MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG WITH
WEAK TO MDT SHEAR. AS A RESULT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH A
SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. AT THE
CURRENT TIME...THE MORE FAVORED AREA AS PER THE MODELS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TO QUICK IN MOVING THE STG BAROCLINIC ZONE NE.
REGARDLESS...THE MCS WL SHIFT ESE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY...FORCING THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN MO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THE DECREASE BY AFTN WITH CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE SPECIAL
EVENTS SAT EVENING LOOKING SMALL.
DB
MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON
SUNDAY...THUS LIMITING ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES LOW
WILL PLOW UNDER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEREFORE...IT WL LIKELY BE DRY WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER HEAT
WAVE IS ON ITS WAY BY AROUND MID- WEEK.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL BE SEEING AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE TAF SITES BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALREADY HAVE
CONVECTION SHOWING UP IN KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFT. SHOULD BE
QUITE ELEVATED...AND GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY IT WOULD BE NEARING THE
TAF SITES...HAVE TO WONDER IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO KEEP STORMS GOING. WILL JUST KEEP THE VC MENTIONED
THAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE TRYING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE TAF SITES...NAM
AND GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT CIN...WITH JUST A VERY ELEVATED LAYER OF
INSTABILITY. SO NOT LOOKING FOR STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR DEVELOPMENT TOWARD OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN IDAHO/UTAH AREA WORKING ITS
WAY SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 030430
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC PRESSURE ADVECTION NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA. A SIMILAR SITUATION COULD OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ENHANCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE ADVECTION
LIFT. HAVE POPS THE HIGHEST OUT ACROSS KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THE REST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND
REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE SPRINGFIELD CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR INSTABILITY LEVELS
CLOSELY FOR SEVERE STORMS. BEING THAT THE OZARKS WILL BE POSITIONED
UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UPPER HIGH...SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST HELPING TO ORGANIZE
CONVECTION TO A CERTAIN EXTENT.
BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOTED IN TODAYS RUNS
VS. YESTERDAY. THESE MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND
SHIFTING IT SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT CAN NOT BE DETERMINED
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY...THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0600Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KS...AND THIS CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND/OR FRI MORNING...MAINLY AFTER 11Z.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
BASED AND LIKELY WEAKENING BY THIS TIME...SO KEPT BOTH TAFS IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUPPORT THE MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN BOTH TAFS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ON
FRI EVENING. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 022338
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC PRESSURE ADVECTION NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA. A SIMILAR SITUATION COULD OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ENHANCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE ADVECTION
LIFT. HAVE POPS THE HIGHEST OUT ACROSS KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THE REST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND
REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE SPRINGFIELD CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR INSTABILITY LEVELS
CLOSELY FOR SEVERE STORMS. BEING THAT THE OZARKS WILL BE POSITIONED
UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UPPER HIGH...SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST HELPING TO ORGANIZE
CONVECTION TO A CERTAIN EXTENT.
BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOTED IN TODAYS RUNS
VS. YESTERDAY. THESE MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND
SHIFTING IT SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT CAN NOT BE DETERMINED
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY...THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0000Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...RESIDUAL VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE OZARKS
EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH 02Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER EASTERN KS NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z...AND THIS CONVECTION MAY SPREAD
EAST AFFECTING THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...MAINLY
AFTER 12Z. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
FAIRLY HIGH BASED AND LIKELY WEAKENING BY THIS TIME...SO KEPT
BOTH TAFS IN THE VFR CATEGORY. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 022336
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/320 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH MCS THAT WILL LIKELY ROLL ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. NAM/GFS LINE UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE OTHER
MODELS WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE GREAT LAKES VORTEX REALIGNS ITSELF NEWD AND WRN CONUS
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS AREA WILL LIE UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA WHEN BOTH THE
GFS/NAM SHOW INCREASING 925-850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER NRN MO. NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS OF THIS FORCING WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A BROAD
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET UNDER LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES JET.
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE GFS QPF SINCE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADAIAN PLACE THE BEST FORCING ALONG IT`S AXIS AND
PROGATION VECTORS FAVOR SEWD OR SSEWD MOVEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUDS DEPTHS WILL BE
BETWEEN 3-4KM WHICH WILL BE SUFFICENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MCS
CENTROID WILL BE NEAR KSTL AROUND 12Z SATURDAY BASED ON PLACEMENT
OF AFOREMENTIONED FORCING ON THE GFS/NAM...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION SATURDAY
MORNING. LACK OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS HAS ALLOWED 3/6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES TO CLIMB ABOVE 2.5 INCHES...SO SEE NO NEED
TO ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT ALONG EFFECTIVE FRONT.
HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR SRN PART OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS/NAM MOS ARE IN REALTIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES NEXT
FEW DAYS. LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY BASED ON EXPECTED LINGERING
CLOUDS AND MORNING PRECIPITATION FROM THE MCS.
HAVE GONE DRY IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. FOLLOWED MORE
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS AS IT HAS SHOWN BETTER
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. WEEKEND FRONT
WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BUILD
EWD PROVIDING THE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THEN CLIMB AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
TO NEAR 20C BY THURSDAY.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
/635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS A DEVELOPING WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DIMINISH BY
01Z...THEN EXPECT CLEAR SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...WILL SEE CIRRUS
SHIELD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS
TO PICKUP FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOST LOCATIONS.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 022315
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/331 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SFC RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE PARKED IN WRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING FM SWRN KS SE TO CNTRL ARK. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NRN TX IS RATHER MEAGER WITH ONLY A SLOW RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE THROUGH FRI NGT.
MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BEING HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE MODELS. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IN ERN WYOMING WILL PIVOT SE TONIGHT...GENERATING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WRN MO BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIP STEADILY DECREASING
DURING THE AFTN. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK WITH NO SVR WX EXPECTED.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN TRACKING THE WARM FRONT NORTH
INTO THE SRN OR CNTRL CWA FRI NGT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. MDT-STG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF I-70 FRI
NGT AS A BRISK LLJ DEVELOPS. MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG WITH
WEAK TO MDT SHEAR. AS A RESULT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH A
SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. AT THE
CURRENT TIME...THE MORE FAVORED AREA AS PER THE MODELS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TO QUICK IN MOVING THE STG BAROCLINIC ZONE NE.
REGARDLESS...THE MCS WL SHIFT ESE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY...FORCING THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN MO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THE DECREASE BY AFTN WITH CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE SPECIAL
EVENTS SAT EVENING LOOKING SMALL.
DB
MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON
SUNDAY...THUS LIMITING ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES LOW
WILL PLOW UNDER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEREFORE...IT WL LIKELY BE DRY WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER HEAT
WAVE IS ON ITS WAY BY AROUND MID- WEEK.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT THRU TOMORROW MORNING...KEEPING CONDS VFR AND DRY WITH LGT
AND VRB WINDS. AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW
MORNING...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AROUND 7-12KTS. A CHC FOR
LGT SHOWERS DOES EXIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
THRU EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THESE SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH OFF TO
WEST BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS THUSLY OPTED FOR VC SHOWERS BTN
15Z-18Z.
73
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 022031
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE PARKED IN WRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING FM SWRN KS SE TO CNTRL ARK. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NRN TX IS RATHER MEAGER WITH ONLY A SLOW RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE THROUGH FRI NGT.
MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BEING HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE MODELS. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IN ERN WYOMING WILL PIVOT SE TONIGHT...GENERATING WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER WRN MO BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIP STEADILY DECREASING
DURING THE AFTN. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK WITH NO SVR WX EXPECTED.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN TRACKING THE WARM FRONT NORTH
INTO THE SRN OR CNTRL CWA FRI NGT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. MDT-STG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF I-70 FRI
NGT AS A BRISK LLJ DEVELOPS. MUCAPES ARE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG WITH
WEAK TO MDT SHEAR. AS A RESULT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH A
SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. AT THE
CURRENT TIME...THE MORE FAVORED AREA AS PER THE MODELS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THE MCS AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TO QUICK IN MOVING THE STG BAROCLINIC ZONE NE.
REGARDLESS...THE MCS WL SHIFT ESE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY...FORCING THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN MO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
THE DECREASE BY AFTN WITH CHCS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE SPECIAL
EVENTS SAT EVENING LOOKING SMALL.
DB
MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON
SUNDAY...THUS LIMITING ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE GREAT LAKES LOW
WILL PLOW UNDER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEREFORE...IT WL LIKELY BE DRY WITH
INCREASING TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER HEAT
WAVE IS ON ITS WAY BY AROUND MID- WEEK.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z FRI. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
A CHC OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AFT 14Z ON FRI. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THE CHC OF TSTMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
DB
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 022020
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
320 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/320 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH MCS THAT WILL LIKELY ROLL ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. NAM/GFS LINE UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE OTHER
MODELS WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE GREAT LAKES VORTEX REALIGNS ITSELF NEWD AND WRN CONUS
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS AREA WILL LIE UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NWRN PART OF THE CWA WHEN BOTH THE
GFS/NAM SHOW INCREASING 925-850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER NRN MO. NW-SE ORIENTED AXIS OF THIS FORCING WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A BROAD
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET UNDER LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES JET.
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE GFS QPF SINCE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADAIAN PLACE THE BEST FORCING ALONG IT`S AXIS AND
PROGATION VECTORS FAVOR SEWD OR SSEWD MOVEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUDS DEPTHS WILL BE
BETWEEN 3-4KM WHICH WILL BE SUFFICENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MCS
CENTROID WILL BE NEAR KSTL AROUND 12Z SATURDAY BASED ON PLACEMENT
OF AFOREMENTIONED FORCING ON THE GFS/NAM...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION SATURDAY
MORNING. LACK OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS HAS ALLOWED 3/6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES TO CLIMB ABOVE 2.5 INCHES...SO SEE NO NEED
TO ISSUE ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT ALONG EFFECTIVE FRONT.
HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR SRN PART OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS/NAM MOS ARE IN REALTIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES NEXT
FEW DAYS. LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY BASED ON EXPECTED LINGERING
CLOUDS AND MORNING PRECIPITATION FROM THE MCS.
HAVE GONE DRY IN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. FOLLOWED MORE
ALONG WITH THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS AS IT HAS SHOWN BETTER
CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION. WEEKEND FRONT
WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BUILD
EWD PROVIDING THE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THEN CLIMB AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE
TO NEAR 20C BY THURSDAY.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION...
/1216 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATING THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE VORTEX CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU WITH BASES FROM AROUND 4-6K FT
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET.
GLASS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 021956
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC PRESSURE ADVECTION NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA. A SIMILAR SITUATION COULD OCCUR
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ENHANCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRESSURE ADVECTION
LIFT. HAVE POPS THE HIGHEST OUT ACROSS KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THE REST OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND
REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE SPRINGFIELD CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR INSTABILITY LEVELS
CLOSELY FOR SEVERE STORMS. BEING THAT THE OZARKS WILL BE POSITIONED
UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UPPER HIGH...SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST HELPING TO ORGANIZE
CONVECTION TO A CERTAIN EXTENT.
BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOTED IN TODAYS RUNS
VS. YESTERDAY. THESE MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND
SHIFTING IT SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE PROCESSES THAT CAN NOT BE DETERMINED
UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY...THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED.
CRAMER
&&
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. BASED UPON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...KJLN COULD SEE
-SHRA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TRACK
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY.
ANGLE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 021748
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUES TO BE
OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE LARGER SCALE...WHICH DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION...TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE BEYOND 36 HOURS. THUS...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
AS DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME.
TODAY...AN MCS IS CURRENTLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY GRAZE THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR...SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE WILL
TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTH AND
EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
60. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
TOUCH ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY STUCK
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CORN BELT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNRISE. THIS MCS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO
PEAL SOUTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE
THEREFORE PLACED CHANCE POPS UP IN THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION
AND TAPERED THEM BACK THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO. AREAS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHARPEN UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MEANS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE. WE COULD SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND WHAT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE THERE
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. THINK SATURDAY WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS QUITE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WAS STATED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE
REALLY DECREASES OUT THIS FAR. THE GFS WAS IGNORED GIVEN ITS
MASSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS POINT AS IT DOES NOT HAVE NEARLY THE UPSCALE GROWTH ISSUES
FROM CONVECTION. WITH THAT SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND
TO VEER TO MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD
BE ACTIVE...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THE 850 MB FRONT
YET TO CLEAR. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI IF A LOW LEVEL JET CAN GET
GOING AND POTENTIALLY OVERRIDE THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. THEN SLOWLY
STARTED TAPERING POPS BACK FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY FOR NOW AS THAT FRONT SEEPS INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A LESS HUMID AIRMASS ALSO
BUILDING IN. WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR
LOWS.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. BASED UPON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...KJLN COULD SEE
-SHRA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TRACK
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY.
ANGLE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 021745
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/259 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW NEAR LAKE HURON WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ACT TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT BY IR
SATELLITE LOOP...WITH CHAOTIC STRATUS DECK ADVECTING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS WILL WEAKEN...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS BEING THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EVIDENT ON 00Z ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CWA...RANGING FROM UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO NEARLY 15C ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE TRIED
TO DEPICT THIS SAME GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WITH TREND TOWARD COOLER
MET GUIDANCE EAST...TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WEST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN CWA...AS THE
NOCTURNAL MCS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...WARM
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH AND COULD SPARK SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
PRIMARY THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INITIATES A MCS ACROSS THE REGION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AS ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN FURTHER NORTH THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE. USING THE MCS/HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTING
CONCEPTUAL MODEL...THE PRIMARY AXIS SHOULD SETUP JUST NORTH OF THE
850MB THETA-E GRADIENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A
KIRKSVILLE...MISSOURI TO SPARTA...ILLINOIS LINE. HAVE SHIFTED
LIKELY POPS TO THIS AXIS AND ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
MCS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF
THE FOURTH OF JULY. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS AND
SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUPRESS CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE CWA.
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UNCERTAINTY OF NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE PAST SUNDAY.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/1216 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATING THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE VORTEX CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN DIURNAL CU WITH BASES FROM AROUND 4-6K FT
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET.
GLASS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 021701
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...THE DISLODGING OF THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NSSL WRF
RUNS HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND HAVE
CORRECTLY POSITIONED THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...ALIGNED WELL WITH THE ONGOING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER S CENTRAL
NEB/N CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ALONG THE
850MB THETA-E GRADIENT INTO SE KANSAS THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE CWA
WITHIN A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES NOT STRAYING FAR FROM PERSISTENCE.
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT UNTIL LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXES FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. A STEADY E/NE
TRANSLATION OF THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF A BROAD
30-35 KNOT LLJ LEADING TO A NARROW ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO ERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WITH DAYTIME MIXING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT.
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION...A BREEZY...WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE
HUMID WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST CWA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED INTO THE LOWER 20C RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS MAY BE HINDERED BY A POTENTIALLY
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS PLUME...SO WILL BUMP ONLY TO NEAR 90 FOR
NOW...STILL LARGELY CONTRASTING AGAINST THE NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER FAR NRN MO NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE
FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO STALL OVER NRN MO AND
SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER SW KANSAS. A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE DUE TO LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE...WILL ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER
WRN AND NRN KS BY EARLY EVENING. AN EVEN STRONGER 40 KNOT LLJ WILL
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
SPREADING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN MO. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING OVER NE KS/NW MO. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN A RAPIDLY MOISTENING COLUMN
/PWATS > 1.75 INCHES/ AND THE THREAT FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS AS THE
LLJ VEERS WITH TIME ALONG A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY.
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING...AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES. REDUCED
POPS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FOCUS CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.
BOOKBINDER
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z FRI. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE
A CHC OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AFT 14Z ON FRI. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...
THE CHC OF TSTMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
DB
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 021157
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/259 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW NEAR LAKE HURON WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ACT TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT BY IR
SATELLITE LOOP...WITH CHAOTIC STRATUS DECK ADVECTING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS WILL WEAKEN...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS BEING THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EVIDENT ON 00Z ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CWA...RANGING FROM UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO NEARLY 15C ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE TRIED
TO DEPICT THIS SAME GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WITH TREND TOWARD COOLER
MET GUIDANCE EAST...TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WEST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN CWA...AS THE
NOCTURNAL MCS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...WARM
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH AND COULD SPARK SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
PRIMARY THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INITIATES A MCS ACROSS THE REGION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AS ECMWF AND GEM REMAIN FURTHER NORTH THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE. USING THE MCS/HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTING
CONCEPTUAL MODEL...THE PRIMARY AXIS SHOULD SETUP JUST NORTH OF THE
850MB THETA-E GRADIENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A
KIRKSVILLE...MISSOURI TO SPARTA...ILLINOIS LINE. HAVE SHIFTED
LIKELY POPS TO THIS AXIS AND ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
MCS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF
THE FOURTH OF JULY. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS AND
SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUPRESS CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE CWA.
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UNCERTAINTY OF NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE PAST SUNDAY.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/629 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
INITIALLY LGT/VAR WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW TODAY...THEN
RETURN TO LGT/VAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ON EDGE OF CLD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH GRTLKS LOW
HAVE BEEN GRAZING UIN/STL/SUS THIS MORNING BUT ALREADY ERODING PER SAT
TRENDS AND SFC OBS. SCT DIURNAL CU THIS AFTN SHOULD DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 021115
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...THE DISLODGING OF THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NSSL WRF
RUNS HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND HAVE
CORRECTLY POSITIONED THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...ALIGNED WELL WITH THE ONGOING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER S CENTRAL
NEB/N CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ALONG THE
850MB THETA-E GRADIENT INTO SE KANSAS THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE CWA
WITHIN A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES NOT STRAYING FAR FROM PERSISTENCE.
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT UNTIL LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXES FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. A STEADY E/NE
TRANSLATION OF THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF A BROAD
30-35 KNOT LLJ LEADING TO A NARROW ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO ERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WITH DAYTIME MIXING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT.
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION...A BREEZY...WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE
HUMID WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST CWA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED INTO THE LOWER 20C RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS MAY BE HINDERED BY A POTENTIALLY
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS PLUME...SO WILL BUMP ONLY TO NEAR 90 FOR
NOW...STILL LARGELY CONTRASTING AGAINST THE NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER FAR NRN MO NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE
FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO STALL OVER NRN MO AND
SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER SW KANSAS. A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE DUE TO LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE...WILL ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER
WRN AND NRN KS BY EARLY EVENING. AN EVEN STRONGER 40 KNOT LLJ WILL
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
SPREADING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN MO. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING OVER NE KS/NW MO. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN A RAPIDLY MOISTENING COLUMN
/PWATS > 1.75 INCHES/ AND THE THREAT FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS AS THE
LLJ VEERS WITH TIME ALONG A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY.
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING...AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES. REDUCED
POPS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FOCUS CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.
BOOKBINDER
&&
.AVIATION...
LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVED WELL WEST AND SOUTH OF TERMINAL
CORRIDOR...WITH ONLY MID LEVEL VIRGA/BRIEF -SHRA CURRENTLY SKIRTING
THROUGH ERN KANSAS. ONLY THIS RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE TODAY...RANGING FROM SWLY TO NLY...THOUGH
EXPECTED TO BE AOB 5KT. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
FORM WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY BEGIN
TO IMPACT WRN APPROACHES BY 12Z FRI. MOST LIKELY...PRECIPITATION
WOULD NOT BEGIN TO AFFECT ACTUAL TERMINAL SITES UNTIL RIGHT AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 12Z FRI.
21
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 021035
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUES TO BE
OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE LARGER SCALE...WHICH DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION...TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE BEYOND 36 HOURS. THUS...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
AS DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME.
TODAY...AN MCS IS CURRENTLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY GRAZE THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR...SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE WILL
TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTH AND
EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
60. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
TOUCH ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY STUCK
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CORN BELT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNRISE. THIS MCS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO
PEAL SOUTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE
THEREFORE PLACED CHANCE POPS UP IN THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION
AND TAPERED THEM BACK THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO. AREAS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHARPEN UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MEANS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE. WE COULD SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND WHAT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE THERE
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. THINK SATURDAY WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS QUITE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WAS STATED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE
REALLY DECREASES OUT THIS FAR. THE GFS WAS IGNORED GIVEN ITS
MASSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS POINT AS IT DOES NOT HAVE NEARLY THE UPSCALE GROWTH ISSUES
FROM CONVECTION. WITH THAT SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND
TO VEER TO MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD
BE ACTIVE...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THE 850 MB FRONT
YET TO CLEAR. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI IF A LOW LEVEL JET CAN GET
GOING AND POTENTIALLY OVERRIDE THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. THEN SLOWLY
STARTED TAPERING POPS BACK FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY FOR NOW AS THAT FRONT SEEPS INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A LESS HUMID AIRMASS ALSO
BUILDING IN. WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR
LOWS.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 1200Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME DEBRIS
FROM THE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF A 15K FOOT CEILING LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 020904 CCA
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUES TO BE
OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE LARGER SCALE...WHICH DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION...TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE BEYOND 36 HOURS. THUS...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
AS DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME.
TODAY...AN MCS IS CURRENTLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY GRAZE THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR...SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE WILL
TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTH AND
EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
60. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
TOUCH ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY STUCK
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CORN BELT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNRISE. THIS MCS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO
PEAL SOUTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE
THEREFORE PLACED CHANCE POPS UP IN THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION
AND TAPERED THEM BACK THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO. AREAS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHARPEN UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MEANS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE. WE COULD SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND WHAT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE THERE
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. THINK SATURDAY WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS QUITE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WAS STATED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE
REALLY DECREASES OUT THIS FAR. THE GFS WAS IGNORED GIVEN ITS
MASSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS POINT AS IT DOES NOT HAVE NEARLY THE UPSCALE GROWTH ISSUES
FROM CONVECTION. WITH THAT SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND
TO VEER TO MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD
BE ACTIVE...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THE 850 MB FRONT
YET TO CLEAR. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI IF A LOW LEVEL JET CAN GET
GOING AND POTENTIALLY OVERRIDE THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. THEN SLOWLY
STARTED TAPERING POPS BACK FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY FOR NOW AS THAT FRONT SEEPS INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A LESS HUMID AIRMASS ALSO
BUILDING IN. WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR
LOWS.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0600Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MO OZARKS
TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. CONVECTION NOW OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 020847
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...THE DISLODGING OF THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. NSSL WRF
RUNS HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND HAVE
CORRECTLY POSITIONED THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...ALIGNED WELL WITH THE ONGOING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER S CENTRAL
NEB/N CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ALONG THE
850MB THETA-E GRADIENT INTO SE KANSAS THIS MORNING...LEAVING THE CWA
WITHIN A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES NOT STRAYING FAR FROM PERSISTENCE.
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT UNTIL LOW-MID
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AXES FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. A STEADY E/NE
TRANSLATION OF THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF A BROAD
30-35 KNOT LLJ LEADING TO A NARROW ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO ERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WITH DAYTIME MIXING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT.
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION...A BREEZY...WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE
HUMID WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST CWA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED INTO THE LOWER 20C RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL MAX TEMPS MAY BE HINDERED BY A POTENTIALLY
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS PLUME...SO WILL BUMP ONLY TO NEAR 90 FOR
NOW...STILL LARGELY CONTRASTING AGAINST THE NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER FAR NRN MO NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE
FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO STALL OVER NRN MO AND
SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER SW KANSAS. A
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE DUE TO LOW LEVEL ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE...WILL ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER
WRN AND NRN KS BY EARLY EVENING. AN EVEN STRONGER 40 KNOT LLJ WILL
ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
SPREADING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN MO. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING OVER NE KS/NW MO. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN A RAPIDLY MOISTENING COLUMN
/PWATS > 1.75 INCHES/ AND THE THREAT FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS AS THE
LLJ VEERS WITH TIME ALONG A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY.
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING...AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES. REDUCED
POPS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
FOCUS CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTHWARD WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.
BOOKBINDER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN A THICKENING OF MID CLOUDS. OVERALL THE TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW MORNING
SPRINKLES. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 020802
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUES TO BE
OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE SHOWN
SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE LARGER SCALE...WHICH DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION...TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE BEYOND 36 HOURS. THUS...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
AS DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME.
TODAY...AN MCS IS CURRENTLY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY GRAZE THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR...SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE WILL
TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTH AND
EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
60. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
TOUCH ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...BUT GENERALLY STUCK
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CORN BELT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNRISE. THIS MCS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO
PEAL SOUTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE
THEREFORE PLACED CHANCE POPS UP IN THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION
AND TAPERED THEM BACK THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO. AREAS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARMER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHARPEN UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTH AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MEANS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE. WE COULD SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND WHAT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE THERE
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. THINK SATURDAY WILL
BE WARM AND HUMID...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS QUITE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WAS STATED EARLIER...CONFIDENCE
REALLY DECREASES OUT THIS FAR. THE GFS WAS IGNORED GIVEN ITS
MASSIVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT
THIS POINT AS IT DOES NOT HAVE NEARLY THE UPSCALE GROWTH ISSUES
FROM CONVECTION. WITH THAT SAID...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND
TO VEER TO MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SLOW PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. STILL THINK SUNDAY COULD
BE ACTIVE...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THE 850 MB FRONT
YET TO CLEAR. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI IF A LOW LEVEL JET CAN GET
GOING AND POTENTIALLY OVERRIDE THE LOW LEVEL FRONT. THEN SLOWLY
STARTED TAPERING POPS BACK FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY FOR NOW AS THAT FRONT SEEPS INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A LESS HUMID AIRMASS ALSO
BUILDING IN. WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING AT 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR
LOWS.
SCHAUMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0600Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MO OZARKS
TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. CONVECTION NOW OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 020801
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
300 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/259 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW NEAR LAKE HURON WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION BUILDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ACT TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING AS EVIDENT BY IR
SATELLITE LOOP...WITH CHAOTIC STRATUS DECK ADVECTING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS WILL WEAKEN...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS BEING THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EVIDENT ON 00Z ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CWA...RANGING FROM UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO NEARLY 15C ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE TRIED
TO DEPICT THIS SAME GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WITH TREND TOWARD COOLER
MET GUIDANCE EAST...TO WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WEST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN CWA...AS THE
NOCTURNAL MCS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...WARM
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH AND COULD SPARK SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
PRIMARY THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INITIATES A MCS ACROSS THE REGION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AS ECWMF AND GEM REMAIN FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE. USING THE MCS/HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTING CONCEPTUAL
MODEL...THE PRIMARY AXIS SHOULD SETUP JUST NORTH OF THE 850MB
THETA-E GRADIENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A KIRKSVILLE...MISSOURI
TO SPARTA...ILLINOIS LINE. HAVE SHIFTED LIKELY POPS TO THIS AXIS AND
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION.
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS
AXIS...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
MCS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF
THE FOURTH OF JULY. BELIEVE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS AND
SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUPRESS CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE CWA.
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UNCERTAINTY OF NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE PAST SUNDAY.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/1140 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND GREAT LAKES
LOW...THOUGH CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. FOR KUIN...WILL SEE BROKEN DECK
MOVE BACK IN AT BEGINNING OF VALID TAF PERIOD...THEN SCATTER OUT BY
15Z. KCOU TO REMAIN CLEAR TIL MID MORNING...THEN SEE DIURNAL CU ONCE
AGAIN. AS FOR KSUS/KSTL...BOTH SITES ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...COULD
SEE BROKEN CIGS AT TIMES...SO ADDED MENTION AFTER 10Z...THEN SCATTER
OUT ONCE AGAIN AROUND 16Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
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