000
FXUS63 KFGF 051619
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1055 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA...MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER THUNDER DEVELOPS IN DVL BASIN AND WHETHER
ANY PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND THERE LATER TODAY.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN MANITOBA INTO THE ERN DKTAS WILL PROVIDE SOME CONTINUED
RESISTANCE TO THE EWD PROPAGATION OF THE WEAK CONVECTIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY IN FAR NRWN ND. SFC DEWPTS HAVE WORKED WELL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF ND AND THE RRV...WITH DRIER AIR STILL
LOCKED OVER THE MN LAKES COUNTRY. MID-UPR TROP WAVE IS SHOWING UP
NICELY IN WATER VAPOR AND 500-250MB 12Z ANALYSIS FM VCNTY YQR-GDV.
PATTERN LAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN FOR WAVE TO GENERATE ISOLD-SCT
CONVECTION INTO WRN AND CNTRL ND WITH SOME RESIDUAL INTO THE NRN RRV
BY LATE EVENING. CURRENT FCST CONTINUES WITH THE TREND...EXPECTING
ISOLD TSTMS INTO THE DVL BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
ELSE EXPECT LIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERLY NEAR-SFC FLOW TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING...TURNING EASTERLY EARLY ON
MONDAY.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE STILL TRENDING TOWARDS A STEADILY MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZING PATTERN FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE FORENOON AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN FA. BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABV VFR
CONDS. ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DVL BASIN ROUGHLY 23-04Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/

HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN BEST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE WILL NOT GO MORE THAN ISOLD COVERAGE. THINK MAJORITY OF
THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY DURING
THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD. MODELS ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO WC
MN. UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SW TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW SOME
SORT OF LOW-LEVEL JET TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FA WITH INCREASING
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE MAIN CHALLENGES ARE POPS AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A WARM WED AS THE 500 MB RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS
THE PLAINS...A STORMIER MIDWEEK...AND DRIER LATE WEEK. WHILE THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING MORE IN
LINE...DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR WED. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND DGEX
HAVE CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT THEN DRY OUT WED AS THE FRONT IS PUSHES SOUTH INTO
SD AND SOUTHERN MN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CONTINUES
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WED PARTLY DUE TO A LESS DEFINED FRONT.
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER WED...SO CUT BACK POPS. MODELS DO SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A 500 MB CUT OFF LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN
OR CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SPARKING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPC SEVERE WX GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WX ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY SEEMS REASONABLE. DID CUT
BACK TEMPS A BIT IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO A COOLER GFS AND MEX
GUIDANCE...AND TRIED TO BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WATER NOTICES REMIAN FOR THE RED RIVER FROM DRAYTON TO
PEMBINA.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
GUST/TG/GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KBIS 051549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE...

MORNING UPDATES CONSIST OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL FOR TODAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL MIDDLE
LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT
ARE AIMED RIGHT AT NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PLACED
LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS OF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN BEGINS WITH A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST...WITH THE RIDGE/RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH TODAY FOR SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A
BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH LIGHTNING
STRIKES ONGOING IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH REACHES CROSBY
BY 18Z AND RUGBY AROUND 00Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING AND WILL MONITOR THESE THROUGH FORECAST PUBLISHING
TIME. THE 4KM WRF SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING TODAY
THEN WHAT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY. CANNOT DISCOUNT THE WRF SINCE
IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL LATELY. THUS HAVE BLENDED THIS SOLUTION IN
AMONGST THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING
EXISTS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z TODAY THEN SHIFTS
INTO OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. HAVE DRAWN THE
HIGHEST/CHC POPS IN THE AREAS SPECIFIED ABOVE WITH LOWER/SLIGHT
CHC POPS FURTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WANE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE UNDER
THIS PATTERN...A LEE SIDE LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING AND
ADVANCING INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST ADVANCES ONSHORE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE LEE SIDE LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY FALL
UNDER STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND EMERGE AS A WELL DEFINED
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A MODERATE H85/LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT SITS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND STRENGTHEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...FURTHER ENHANCING THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STRONG FORCING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THIS AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...OVER
OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES TOPPING RIDGE BUT
GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF AGAIN. EACH WAVE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
OUTBREAKS MID AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS
AGAIN FOR WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
SMOKE FROM INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORKS TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE
INVERSION PRODUCING SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT KBIS AND
OCCASIONALLY AT KMOT. CONVECTION FROM WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE IN
EASTERN MONTANA MAY HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT WESTERN TAF
SITES. WILL NOWCAST AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KS/HW/SCHECK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 050844
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES. 00Z MODELS
INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MOST
CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR DETAILS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY...AND THEN SHIFT
EAST TUE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND ANY
PRECIP CHANCES. WEAK WAVE COULD SPREAD SOME PRECIP CHANCES INTO
THE DVL BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. KEPT ISOLD
THUNDER MENTION.

HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN BEST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE WILL NOT GO MORE THAN ISOLD COVERAGE. THINK MAJORITY OF
THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY DURING
THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD. MODELS ALSO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO WC
MN. UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SW TUESDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW SOME
SORT OF LOW-LEVEL JET TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FA WITH INCREASING
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE MAIN CHALLENGES ARE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS STILL INDICATE A WARM WED AS THE 500 MB RIDGE
PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS...A STORMIER MIDWEEK...AND DRIER LATE
WEEK. WHILE THE MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING MORE IN
LINE...DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR WED. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND DGEX
HAVE CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BUT THEN DRY OUT WED AS THE FRONT IS PUSHES SOUTH INTO
SD AND SOUTHERN MN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CONTINUES
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WED PARTLY DUE TO A LESS DEFINED FRONT.
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER WED...SO CUT BACK POPS. MODELS DO SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A 500 MB CUT OFF LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN
OR CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SPARKING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPC SEVERE WX GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WX ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY SEEMS REASONABLE. DID CUT
BACK TEMPS A BIT IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO A COOLER GFS AND MEX
GUIDANCE...AND TRIED TO BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...CIRRUS POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH
CLOUDINESS. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG/GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KBIS 050754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN BEGINS WITH A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST...WITH THE RIDGE/RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ONE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH TODAY FOR SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A
BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH LIGHTNING
STRIKES ONGOING IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH REACHES CROSBY
BY 18Z AND RUGBY AROUND 00Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING AND WILL MONITOR THESE THROUGH FORECAST PUBLISHING
TIME. THE 4KM WRF SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING TODAY
THEN WHAT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PORTRAY. CANNOT DISCOUNT THE WRF SINCE
IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL LATELY. THUS HAVE BLENDED THIS SOLUTION IN
AMONGST THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING
EXISTS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z TODAY THEN SHIFTS
INTO OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. HAVE DRAWN THE
HIGHEST/CHC POPS IN THE AREAS SPECIFIED ABOVE WITH LOWER/SLIGHT
CHC POPS FURTHER SOUTH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WANE AROUND SUNSET
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND WE LOSE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE UNDER
THIS PATTERN...A LEE SIDE LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING AND
ADVANCING INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE
OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST ADVANCES ONSHORE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THE LEE SIDE LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY FALL
UNDER STRONGER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND EMERGE AS A WELL DEFINED
LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A MODERATE H85/LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE RIDGE AXIS AS IT SITS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND STRENGTHEN A BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...FURTHER ENHANCING THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STRONG FORCING AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THIS AREA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...OVER
OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING WITH SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES TOPPING RIDGE BUT
GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF AGAIN. EACH WAVE WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
OUTBREAKS MID AND AGAIN LATE IN WEEK. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS
AGAIN FOR WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
SMOKE FROM INDEPENDENCE DAY FIREWORKS TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE
INVERSION PRODUCING SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN FU AT KBIS AND
OCCASIONALLY AT KMOT. CONVECTION FROM WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE IN EASTERN
MONTANA MAY HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT WESTERN TAF SITES. WILL
NOWCAST AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KS/HW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 050127 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
827 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...SOME TSTMS DID FORM OR SLIDE DOWN INTO THE NORTHWEST
FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS
HAD TO BE WATCHED A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT JUST NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ANY LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SE. THEREFORE EXPECT THE FEW STORMS REMAINING
TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL JET
TO SUSTAIN ANYTHING INTO THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THE PCPN
DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT...SO NOT TOO FAR OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE A PROBLEM...WITH A LARGE VARIETY IN SFC DEW POINTS RIGHT NOW.
THE KDVL TO KJMS CORRIDOR HAS DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S...WHILE
THERE ARE STILL MID TO UPPER 40 DEW POINTS IN THE EAST. SINCE THE
EAST DID GET DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 40S LAST NIGHT...DROPPED MINS
JUST A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ALWAYS SEEM TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL NEAR DEW POINTS IN THE EAST.
REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ONLY PUSH SOME SCATTERED MID OR HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE AREA YET THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT...IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL HIT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. AFTER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...CLOUDS SHOULD BE
ABOUT GONE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO N MN...WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SW MB. WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST
PART...TIMING ISSUES CREATE LARGE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES. THUS...ENDED
UP LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS FOR POPS AND THE ADJMAVBC
FOR TEMPS.

WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST AREA RADARS...THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT WAS OVER NE ND EARLIER HAS BEEN WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE SHRA/TSRA IN CENTRAL ND STILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THEY
AREA ALSO WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE SE. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP KEEPING
A SCHC FOR TSRA IN DVL AREA THIS EVENING...WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE DRY.
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...IF THE DRIER
AIR IN PLACE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NW MN DOES NOT KILL THEM
OFF FIRST.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE N PLAINS FOR SUN...
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSRA IN THE DVL AREA SUN AFTERNOON.  AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA ON MON...A BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE N PLAINS...AS THE 500MB RIDGE PASSES AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM NW TO SW. THE END RESULT IS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PCPN STARTING MON NIGHT IN DVL AREA AND PROGRESSING E
INTO E ND ON TUE.

LONG TERM... /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z GFS A BIT SLOWER AND FLATTER THAN PREVIOUS 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS...BUT STILL INDICATING A STORMIER MIDWEEK PERIOD AND DRIER END
OF WEEK AS HAS BEEN FORECAST TREND. CURRENT GFS PACKAGE HAS A FAIRLY
ROBUST SW FLOW PATTERN LEANING INTO THE N PLAINS LATE TUE INTO
WED...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WED AND THU AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THREAT FOR SIG PCPN
AND SVR WX INDICATED IN HPC/SPC OUTLOOKS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON

000
FXUS63 KBIS 042034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

CURRENTLY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER TEXAS CONITNUES TO
RETROGRADE. MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS SENDING IMPULSES
OVER THIS RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE MAIN SOURCE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINITY LIES WITH
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE SMALL FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH MEAGER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH A GOOD NIGHT FOR FIREWORKS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA.

SUNDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR...EXCEPT THAT FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOW A BIT MORE STABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES...ALONG THE FORECAST AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EDGE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD LOOKS DRY AND WARM UNTIL A SHORT WAVE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY....PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO AGREE ON HANDLING THE WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH...AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN TROUGH IS SUCH THAT THE FLOW OVER
NORTH DAKOTA IS A SOUTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH...AND
SENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE MODELS BREAK OFF A LOW FROM THE
TROUGH AND SEND IT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE
KEEPING A TROUGH OVER WA/OR/BC. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE BREAK-OFF LOW
HAS MOVED TOWARDS HUDSON BAY AND NORTH DAKOTA IS IN A WEAK RIDGE OR
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HENCE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WENT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - EXCEPT
IN THE FAR WEST. THE MODELS THEN DEEPEN THE HUDSON BAY LOW FEATURE
AND KEEP EITHER ZONAL FLOW OR A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE STATE.
HENCE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY OR PUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS - WHICH IS MAINLY CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA/GRAND
FORKS TO BETWEEN KBIS AND KJMS...TO NEAR KHEI. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MN TO EASTERN
SD AFT 03Z. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER TO AFFECT
MAINLY KJMS TAF SITE THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THIS MORNING THE LITTLE MUDDY RIVER GAGE NOTED A SHARP INCREASE TO
NEAR ACTION STAGE. LOCAL REPORTS HAVE SHOWN A BASIN AVERAGE OF
ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT...WHICH HAS SATURATED
THE SOIL THROUGHOUT THE BASIN. LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WERE
ALSO RECEIVED. WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CONVECTION OVER THIS
AREA...AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TO BELOW AN INCH IN
SOME AREAS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

BPN/SCHECK/JV

000
FXUS63 KFGF 041957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO N MN...WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SW MB. WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST
PART...TIMING ISSUES CREATE LARGE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES. THUS...ENDED
UP LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS FOR POPS AND THE ADJMAVBC
FOR TEMPS.

WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST AREA RADARS...THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT WAS OVER NE ND EARLIER HAS BEEN WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE SHRA/TSRA IN CENTRAL ND STILL REMAIN...ALTHOUGH THEY
AREA ALSO WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE SE. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP KEEPING
A SCHC FOR TSRA IN DVL AREA THIS EVENING...WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE DRY.
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...IF THE DRIER
AIR IN PLACE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NW MN DOES NOT KILL THEM
OFF FIRST.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE N PLAINS FOR SUN...
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSRA IN THE DVL AREA SUN AFTERNOON.  AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E OF THE
AREA ON MON...A BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE N PLAINS...AS THE 500MB RIDGE PASSES AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM NW TO SW. THE END RESULT IS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PCPN STARTING MON NIGHT IN DVL AREA AND PROGRESSING E
INTO E ND ON TUE.

.LONG TERM... /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z GFS A BIT SLOWER AND FLATTER THAN PREVIOUS 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS...BUT STILL INDICATING A STORMIER MIDWEEK PERIOD AND DRIER END
OF WEEK AS HAS BEEN FORECAST TREND. CURRENT GFS PACKAGE HAS A FAIRLY
ROBUST SW FLOW PATTERN LEANING INTO THE N PLAINS LATE TUE INTO
WED...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WED AND THU AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THREAT FOR SIG PCPN
AND SVR WX INDICATED IN HPC/SPC OUTLOOKS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS NW MN THRU LATE AFTERNOON IS SHOWING
STEADILY DISSIPATING TREND AS IT BEATS AGAINST DRIER AIRMASS IN
NC MN. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND TRACKING SW
ATTM TOWARDS MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. EXPECT ISOLD
CONVECTION YET TO DEVELOP INTO DVL BASIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...FOCUSED ON WEAK SFC TROF CURRENTLY WEST OF A YBR-
ROL-BIS LINE. THEN...CLOUDS DISSIPATING AFT SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
NG/GUST

000
FXUS63 KFGF 041700 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO N MN...WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN SW MB. WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE MODELS
REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM...SO ENDED UP
USING A MODEL COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE.

WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST AREA RADARS...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH AN ISOLD TSRA EXTENDS FROM NE ND INTO CENTRAL ND THIS
MORNING...WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WV
IMAGERY IS MOVING THROUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO E ND THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED
INCLUDE ISOLD POPS STARTING AT 18Z AND EXPANDED THE AREA SOONER INTO
NW MN AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WITH TEMPS RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ENDED UP RAISING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES. REST
OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AC AND CI WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM W TO E THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NW-N AROUND 10 KTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/

SHORT TERM...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 00Z
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS. WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND
THIS PACKAGE AS ALL MODELS HAVE SIMILAR IDEA...JUST DIFFER A BIT
WITH DETAILS.

TODAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE FROM W OF LK WINNIPEG
THIS MORNING TO JUST N OF MN THIS EVENING. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT (BEST SEEN BY LOOKING AT 925MB WIND
FIELD) WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE (DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 50S) ACROSS THE W FA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH ML CAPE
VALUES 500-800 J/KG. WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A STORM OR TWO. BEST PROBABILITY FOR
-TSRA WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JMS TO HCO (AREA WHERE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND 925MB WIND SHIFT OVERLAY). CONSIDERING
CURRENT TIMING FROM 00Z MODELS...MOVED UP START TIME TO 21Z. DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF POPS NEED TO BE EXPANDED E...BUT
CURRENT TIMING OF 925 MB WIND SHIFT AND DECREASING INSTABILITY TO
THE E WOULD INDICATE THAT CURRENT AREA IS REASONABLE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS
APPROACHING 80F.

TONIGHT-MON...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF RETURN
FLOW/INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. KEPT ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE DVL
BASIN MON AFTERNOON WITH 00Z MODELS INDICATING WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST UNTIL THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THE MAIN CHALLENGES ARE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUE...IMPLYING A WARMER MID TO LATE
WEEK. WHILE MOST OF TUE SHOULD BE DRY...SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
AS EARLY AS VERY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...SO TENDING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND
DGEX WHICH INDICATE INITIAL ACTIVITY LATE TUE INTO WED. THOUGHT IT
BEST TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT UNTIL THE MODELS BECOME
MORE CLEAR AND AGREEABLE...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GRIDS WITH STRONG RELIANCE ON HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
NG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 041614
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1114 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE 800 OR SO J/KG CAPE AXIS ALONG
U.S. HIGHWAY 83 WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE. SO...WILL SIMPLY KEEP AN EYE ON EVERYTHING THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...TAKING CARE NOT TO RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY. UP UNTIL
THAT TIME...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTIONS/TROUGHS
AND AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/4KM WRF. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THIS TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CONVERGENCE/FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION STARTED. WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN UNSTABLE/INVERTED-V
TYPE PROFILE...HIGH CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR WILL YIELD WIND AND HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH AND K INDICES AROUND 30 INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ONCE THE ENVIRONMENT
OVERCOMES THE INVERTED V PROFILE AND CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO LOWER.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET AND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MIGRATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL INITIATE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY WITH SOME WEAK CIN SHOWING UP AND
OVERALL CAPE MUCH LESS...THUS FEEL SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SUFFICE FOR
NOW. H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARMING TREND AND ANOTHER COUPLE
OF DEGREES OF WARMING AT THE SURFACE CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO EDGE
CLOSER INTO NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...THEN A
SHORTWAVE RIDES THROUGH THE RIDGE TOP OFFERING SOME POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXTENDED GRIDS BEGIN WITH SHARP RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS PINCHED
BETWEEN LOWS OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SECOND LOW NORTH OF GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF AND GEM IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE ECMWF FOR GRIDS.

MID LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES LEE TROUGH INTO STATE ON TUESDAY WITH EC
PAINTING BROAD AREA OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER STATE BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES EAST NORTH
OF CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY  WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA.

SHARP TROUGH APPROACHES STATE AT END OF EXTENDED FOR NEXT ROUND OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

AVIATION...
LINGERING CONVECTION WESTERN TAF SITES AS WELL AS PATCHY BR WILL BE
AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KS/HW/SCHECK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 040823
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 00Z
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS. WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND
THIS PACKAGE AS ALL MODELS HAVE SIMILAR IDEA...JUST DIFFER A BIT
WITH DETAILS.

TODAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE FROM WEST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG THIS MORNING TO JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE MAIN FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT (BEST SEEN BY
LOOKING AT 925MB WIND FIELD) WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA. MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE
(DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S) ACROSS THE WESTERN FA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 500-800 J/KG. WEAK FORCING COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A STORM OR
TWO. BEST PROBABILITY FOR -TSRA WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM JAMESTOWN TO HALLOCK (AREA WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
925MB WIND SHIFT OVERLAY). CONSIDERING CURRENT TIMING FROM 00Z
MODELS...MOVED UP START TIME TO 21Z. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IF POPS NEED TO BE EXPANDED EAST...BUT CURRENT TIMING OF
925MB WIND SHIFT AND DECREASING INSTABILITY TO THE EAST WOULD
INDICATE THAT CURRENT AREA IS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 80F.

TONIGHT-MON...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE OF RETURN
FLOW/INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. KEPT ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE DVL
BASIN MON AFTERNOON WITH 00Z MODELS INDICATING WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST UNTIL THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THE MAIN CHALLENGES ARE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE 500MB RIDGE WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUE...IMPLYING A WARMER MID TO LATE
WEEK. WHILE MOST OF TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION AS EARLY AS VERY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS...SO TENDING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND DGEX WHICH INDICATE INITIAL ACTIVITY LATE
TUE INTO WED. THOUGHT IT BEST TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY AT THIS
POINT UNTIL THE MODELS BECOME MORE CLEAR AND AGREEABLE...SO ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS WITH STRONG RELIANCE ON HPC
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR KDVL. PROBABILITY OF A
STORM HITTING THE AIRPORT IS LOW CONSIDERING COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. WILL NOT INCLUDE -TSRA MENTION IN 12Z
TAF (BUT WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG/GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KBIS 040756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUESDAY. UP UNTIL
THAT TIME...NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH. THESE
DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK SURFACE REFLECTIONS/TROUGHS
AND AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/4KM WRF. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THIS TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CONVERGENCE/FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO GET CONVECTION STARTED. WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN UNSTABLE/INVERTED-V
TYPE PROFILE...HIGH CAPE AND DECENT SHEAR WILL YIELD WIND AND HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH AND K INDICES AROUND 30 INDICATE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ONCE THE ENVIRONMENT
OVERCOMES THE INVERTED V PROFILE AND CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO LOWER.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY AROUND SUNSET OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET AND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MIGRATES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL INITIATE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE AS TODAY WITH SOME WEAK CIN SHOWING UP AND
OVERALL CAPE MUCH LESS...THUS FEEL SLIGHT CHANCE WILL SUFFICE FOR
NOW. H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARMING TREND AND ANOTHER COUPLE
OF DEGREES OF WARMING AT THE SURFACE CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO EDGE
CLOSER INTO NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...THEN A
SHORTWAVE RIDES THROUGH THE RIDGE TOP OFFERING SOME POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXTENDED GRIDS BEGIN WITH SHARP RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS PINCHED
BETWEEN LOWS OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SECOND LOW NORTH OF GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF AND GEM IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE ECMWF FOR GRIDS.

MID LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES LEE TROUGH INTO STATE ON TUESDAY WITH EC
PAINTING BROAD AREA OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER STATE BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES EAST NORTH
OF CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY  WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA.

SHARP TROUGH APPROACHES STATE AT END OF EXTENDED FOR NEXT ROUND OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&
.AVIATION...
LINGERING CONVECTION WESTERN TAF SITES AS WELL AS PATCHY BR WILL BE
AVIATION CONCERNS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KS/HW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 040233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER ABOUT THE
LOWER 80 PER CENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. GRID/FORECAST UPDATES THIS
EVENING WILL ADDRESS MAINLY SKY COVER...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
BUMPED UP A GOOD 20 PER CENT. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...WITH FARGO AT 46 F AND
WAHPETON NEAR 65 F. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL TSTMS POP UP IN THE JUICIER
AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH...HOWEVER LOSS OF SOLAR HAS HELPED DIMINISH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND EXPECT IT TO BE DONE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE PULLED POPS AFT 10 PM. TEMPS GENERALLY ON
A GOOD TREND ALTHOUGH MAYBE A DEG OR TWO COOL...SO KNOCKED OFF A
COUPLE DEG ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AROUND 5K TO 6K FT...BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT BY MID
MORNING OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA TONIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO
WESTERLIES BY NOONTIME TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SPEICHER

000
FXUS63 KBIS 032029
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...


&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

CURRENTLY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TEXAS HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN
OUT AS MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. SHOWERS RESULTING FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE SD/ND
BORDER...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD WILL MOST LIKELY
INHIBIT THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE AREA UNTIL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE WEST LATER IN THE SHORT TERM...AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA/NORTHWEST U.S. THE
MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE LOW WILL THEN TRAVERSE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE NUMEROUS AND FAST-
MOVING IMPULSES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE FIRST WEAK PULSE OF ENERGY IN THE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. WITH FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES TRENDING TOWARD MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST
FRONTAL FORCING APPEARS IN THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE. SUNDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE ANOTHER IMPULSE AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH A BIT
MORE STABILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIKELY
BUILD EAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE LAST
SHOT OF ENERGY GIVES ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEND GREATLY TO LOCATION AND CHANCES OF
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS INFLUENCED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT BEGINS
TUESDAY OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES SENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS NORTH DAKOTA IS IN THE UPSTREAM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN PERSISTING...UNTIL FRIDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE ECMWF DEPICTS THE TROUGH INTENSIFYING AND PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/HUDSON BAY REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH OUT WEST WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TUESDAY...COOLING TO
75 TO 85 FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TAF SITES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND WILL LOOK FOR THIS CONVECTION TO
ADVECT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO MAINLY AFFECT KDIK AND KISN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

BPN/JV/SCHECK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 032028
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
328 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN SASK AND MB...WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED IN W NE...WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO NE SD. WHEN LOOKING
AT THE MODELS...ENDED UP USING A MODEL COMPROMISE FOR THE
FORECAST. THE NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT PCPN TRENDS...AND THE ADJMAVBC GRIDS WORKED PRETTY WELL
FOR TEMPS.

WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST AREA RADARS...MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS IN CENTRAL ND...CENTRAL AND E SD. A FEW ISOLD TSRA
HAVE DEVELOPED IN SE ND AND WC MN WHERE PLENTY OF INSOLATION TODAY
HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED. THUS...EXPANDED POPS FOR
THIS EVENING TO COVER MORE OF AN AREA S OF A FAR TO PKD LINE.
EXPECTING TSRA TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY FOR SAT AND SAT
NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
COULD SET OFF SOME LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA FOR PARTS OF NE
ND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT REST OF AREA TO STAY DRY FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE N PLAINS INTO MON...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
MAIN IDEA FOR THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD IS WARMER AND
MORE ACTIVE AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNS MORE SW. MAIN GUIDANCE
PACKAGES DEPICT H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER N PLAINS ON DAY 4 TUE...
WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART. AFTER THAT...BROAD
SW FLOW WILL MOVE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED
MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WED INTO THU...
WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INSPIRING PERIODIC CONVECTIVE EPISODES
DURING THIS TIME. A SHIFT IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME ON FRI...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE
NW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS THROUGH SAT WITH AFTERNOON CU DISAPPEARING TOWARD
SUNSET AND ONLY MID LEVEL AC THEREAFTER. WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS IN THIS WEAK FLOW REGIME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
NG/WJB