000
FXUS63 KGID 040527
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AS EXPECTED...PRIMARY AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINAL...AND OTHER THAN A TEMPO MENTION FOR A SMALL BAND OF
PRECIP MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST...KEPT TAF DRY. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING MVFR/AT TIMES IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES...AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME AFTER SUNRISE...BUT
STRATUS LOOKS TO STICK AROUND FOR THE MAJORITY OF DAY...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. CURRENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHTER THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO NEAR 15KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

SHORT TERM...THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
RISK.

ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF THE CWFA HAS BEEN SHROUDED IN CLOUDS TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THAT
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SUNSHINE IN NORTH CENTRAL HAS BROUGHT A SURGE OF HOT
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24
AND 80S ALONG HIGHWAY 36. BASICALLY THE WAY IT SETS UP...THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
AREA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK.

INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS FINALLY
ATTEMPTING WITH INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. PSEUDO CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT BELOIT/SMITH CENTER/PHILLIPSBURG
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT HILL CITY. THIS IS DUE TO SUBTLE 5 DEGREE
DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
JUST WEST OF RUSSELL ON THIS CONVERGENCE LINE.

THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD/HALF OF THE CWFA. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHARP UPPER WAVE COMING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLIDE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
IF NOT NUMEROUS IN NUMBER. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO FAVOR
THE EVENING HOURS FOR GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND ANY SEVERE RISK. WITH THE BOUNDARY AND LIKELIHOOD OF A
FEW SUPERCELLS...ALL MODES OF SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY.
ONE ISSUE WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME WILL BE THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP...AND THAT MAY TAKE JUST A BIT BEFORE THAT WEAKENS
SUBSTANTIALLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS IN
NATURE AND MORE ELEVATED. EXPECT ALL OF THE RAIN TO FORMULATE
INTO A MCS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING...WITH MUCH OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CWFA BY MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ASSOCIATED NEAR
THE UPPER WAVE MAY ALSO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA OVERNIGHT...
BUT AM A LITTLE UNCERTAIN OF ITS COVERAGE POTENTIAL OR LASTING
EFFECTS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CWFA. HAVE SHIFTED TO SHOWERS WITH
COLD ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM
BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A COOL FOURTH OF JULY...AS A SOLID
NORTH WIND PREVAILS AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO GO AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS BACK TO THE 70S FOR MOST
OF NEBRASKA...AND THE LOWER 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THOUGH
COOLER...IT WON/T BE MUCH DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY BACK TO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RATHER FALL-LIKE FEEL TO ANY EVENING FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS. DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ISSUES SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIKE MOST
OF THE WAVES RECENTLY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE RIDGE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM DURING THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE
LOW AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND THEREFORE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WELL ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP
THINGS WARM AND DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 040255 AAC
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO DROP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND TO ADD SEVERE WORDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SHORT WAVE IS ENTERING THE PANHANDLE SUGGESTING AN EARLY SHOW OF
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEB THIS
EVENING. THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK DELINEATES THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
QUITE WELL COVERING AREA THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY
20. INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS AND THE AREA
OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR
SRN NEB AND ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB. OTHERWISE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MEAN STORM
MOTION OF EAST AT 20 MPH SUGGESTS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED TO CELL TRAINING...TOO LIMITED A THREAT TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT IS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NAM AND GFS THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIZZLING HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS. BUT THERE
IS A CAVEAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST ARE EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE INEVITABLE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A
BRIEF HEAT WAVE VS A MULTI-DAY EVENT. THUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAYS
FORECAST TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90S. NO RAIN IS FCST UNTIL THE FRONT
DROPS IN FRIDAY AS FCST BY THE SLOWER GFS.

AVIATION...
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
TO LIFT BRIEFLY AS CONVECTION ROLES EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA STATELINE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH. THE
MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 04/10Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY LIFR AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 16Z. MODELS ALL POINT
TOWARD THE LOWER CEILINGS AND INCLUDED IN CURRENT TERMINAL FORECAST
FOR KLBF AND KVTN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...13
AVIATION...POWER

000
FXUS63 KOAX 040248
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
948 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVED SVR WATCH AND UPDATE WX GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

02Z SFC ANLYS INDCD LO PRES OVR NE KS WITH A WRM FNT EXTNDG EWD
INTO WRN MO. THUS FAR TSRA OVER THE STRONGER VARIETY HAVE BEEN
CLOSELY TIED TO THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SFC LO AND
NOT TO THE NORTH OF THE WRM FNT. SHRTWV TROF MOVG FM WRN SD INTO
WRN IA BY 12Z IS EXPECTED TO CONT TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT
FOR ASCENT AS WELL AS PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A STRONG LLJ FM KS INTO
SE NEB. NEVERTHELESS...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACRS KS IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT INTO SE NEB ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THUS HAVE DROPPED THE SVR
WATCH. SHLD STILL SEE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONT WITH THE HIGH POPS. HAVE SPED UP THE ENDING
OF POPS IN THE WRN CWA WHERE FORCING SHLD SHIFT EWD BY MRNG.
OTHERWISE GOING TMPS AND WINDS SEEMED ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT
WITH NUMEROUS WEATHER FEATURES OF INTEREST...THEN GENERALLY DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH MAY BRING IN
SOME SPOTTY PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

FIRST UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT BUT
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER REGION.
SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR MORE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DOUBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH LEADING FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL KANSAS...NEAR WHERE THE
CLOUD FREE LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS AS DEPICTED ON LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FEEL THE 12Z 4KM WRF/18Z RUC HAS PERHAPS THE
BEST HANDLE ON DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION WITH STORMS LIKELY
FIRING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SCNTRAL NEBRASKA OR
NCNTRL KANSAS...THEN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON IT. AREAS DIRECTLY
ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER EAST OF THE FAIRBURY AND BEATRICE REGION
MAY NOT SEE MUCH...DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP...AND AREAS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEST OF NORFOLK MAY NOT SEE MUCH UNTIL
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE MAKE IT
THIS FAR EAST LATER TONIGHT. BEST CORRIDOR FOR HIGHEST POPS SEEMS
TO BE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY/I80 CORRIDORS TONIGHT...SHIFTING
IN WESTERN IOWA. THIS ALSO DOESN`T BODE WELL FOR VARIOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES TONIGHT AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED. REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY HAVE SERIOUSLY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWFA AND BEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARD A SMALL
SECTION OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WEST OF
BEATRICE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT AS
PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
SOME AREAS COULD EASILY PICKUP AN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN OVERNIGHT
FROM OMAHA SOUTH AND EAST.

WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW...SOMEWHAT UNCHARACTERISTIC FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
EVERYTHING SHIFTS EAST THEN EXPECT CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER
80S...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WAVE WHICH MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HOT TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST AND ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TO OUR NORTH. GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
HERE VERSUS THE COOLER ENSEMBLE TEMPS. A COOL FRONT DOES TRY TO MAKE
AN INCURSION INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK FORECAST VALID THROUGH 04/18Z.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PCPN CHANCES THRU THE TAF
PD. CURRENT BROAD SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A WRMFNT ACROSS KANSAS WL LIFT NWD AND
TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AND COULD BRING TSTM CHANCES
INTO KLNK AND KOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRIZZLE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND SO HAVE CONTINUED AN MVFR CIG
AND VIS THRU 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

99

000
FXUS63 KLBF 040102 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
802 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND TO ADD SEVERE WORDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SHORT WAVE IS ENTERING THE PANHANDLE SUGGESTING AN EARLY SHOW OF
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEB THIS
EVENING. THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK DELINEATES THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
QUITE WELL COVERING AREA THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY
20. INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS AND THE AREA
OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR
SRN NEB AND ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB. OTHERWISE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MEAN STORM
MOTION OF EAST AT 20 MPH SUGGESTS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED TO CELL TRAINING...TOO LIMITED A THREAT TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT IS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NAM AND GFS THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIZZLING HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS. BUT THERE
IS A CAVEAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST ARE EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE INEVITABLE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A
BRIEF HEAT WAVE VS A MULTI-DAY EVENT. THUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAYS
FORECAST TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90S. NO RAIN IS FCST UNTIL THE FRONT
DROPS IN FRIDAY AS FCST BY THE SLOWER GFS.

AVIATION...
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
TO LIFT BRIEFLY AS CONVECTION ROLES EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA STATELINE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH. THE
MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 04/10Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY LIFR AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 16Z. MODELS ALL POINT
TOWARD THE LOWER CEILINGS AND INCLUDED IN CURRENT TERMINAL FORECAST
FOR KLBF AND KVTN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ025>027-037-038-059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...13
AVIATION...POWER

000
FXUS63 KGID 032351
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
651 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. INITIAL CONVECTIVE ROUND WAS SOUTH OF THE
KGRI AS EXPECTED...BUT LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE KGRI AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
HAVE INCLUDED THAT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LOOK FOR MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AS WINDS TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND THOSE
LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT
LEAST ON SATURDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS MAY ALSO
OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD SNEAK UP TO
AT LEAST 15KTS BEHIND DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

SHORT TERM...THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
RISK.

ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF THE CWFA HAS BEEN SHROUDED IN CLOUDS TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THAT
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SUNSHINE IN NORTH CENTRAL HAS BROUGHT A SURGE OF HOT
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24
AND 80S ALONG HIGHWAY 36. BASICALLY THE WAY IT SETS UP...THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
AREA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK.

INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS FINALLY
ATTEMPTING WITH INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. PSEUDO CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT BELOIT/SMITH CENTER/PHILLIPSBURG
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT HILL CITY. THIS IS DUE TO SUBTLE 5 DEGREE
DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
JUST WEST OF RUSSELL ON THIS CONVERGENCE LINE.

THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD/HALF OF THE CWFA. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHARP UPPER WAVE COMING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLIDE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
IF NOT NUMEROUS IN NUMBER. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO FAVOR
THE EVENING HOURS FOR GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND ANY SEVERE RISK. WITH THE BOUNDARY AND LIKELIHOOD OF A
FEW SUPERCELLS...ALL MODES OF SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY.
ONE ISSUE WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME WILL BE THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP...AND THAT MAY TAKE JUST A BIT BEFORE THAT WEAKENS
SUBSTANTIALLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS IN
NATURE AND MORE ELEVATED. EXPECT ALL OF THE RAIN TO FORMULATE
INTO A MCS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING...WITH MUCH OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CWFA BY MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ASSOCIATED NEAR
THE UPPER WAVE MAY ALSO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA OVERNIGHT...
BUT AM A LITTLE UNCERTAIN OF ITS COVERAGE POTENTIAL OR LASTING
EFFECTS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CWFA. HAVE SHIFTED TO SHOWERS WITH
COLD ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM
BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A COOL FOURTH OF JULY...AS A SOLID
NORTH WIND PREVAILS AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO GO AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS BACK TO THE 70S FOR MOST
OF NEBRASKA...AND THE LOWER 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THOUGH
COOLER...IT WON/T BE MUCH DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY BACK TO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RATHER FALL-LIKE FEEL TO ANY EVENING FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS. DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ISSUES SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIKE MOST
OF THE WAVES RECENTLY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE RIDGE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM DURING THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE
LOW AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND THEREFORE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WELL ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP
THINGS WARM AND DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 032201
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
501 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND TO ADD SEVERE WORDING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SHORT WAVE IS ENTERING THE PANHANDLE SUGGESTING AN EARLY SHOW OF
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEB THIS
EVENING. THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK DELINEATES THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
QUITE WELL COVERING AREA THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY
20. INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS AND THE AREA
OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR
SRN NEB AND ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB. OTHERWISE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MEAN STORM
MOTION OF EAST AT 20 MPH SUGGESTS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED TO CELL TRAINING...TOO LIMITED A THREAT TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT IS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NAM AND GFS THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIZZLING HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS. BUT THERE
IS A CAVEAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST ARE EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE INEVITABLE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A
BRIEF HEAT WAVE VS A MULTI-DAY EVENT. THUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAYS
FORECAST TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90S. NO RAIN IS FCST UNTIL THE FRONT
DROPS IN FRIDAY AS FCST BY THE SLOWER GFS.

AVIATION...
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
TO LIFT BRIEFLY AS CONVECTION ROLES EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA STATELINE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH. THE
MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 04/10Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY LIFR AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 16Z. MODELS ALL POINT
TOWARD THE LOWER CEILINGS AND INCLUDED IN CURRENT TERMINAL FORECAST
FOR KLBF AND KVTN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-036-056>058-094.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ025>027-037-038-059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...POWER

000
FXUS63 KLBF 032018
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SHORT WAVE IS ENTERING THE PANHANDLE SUGGESTING AN EARLY SHOW OF
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEB THIS
EVENING. THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK DELINEATES THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
QUITE WELL COVERING AREA THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY
20. INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS AND THE AREA
OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR
SRN NEB AND ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB. OTHERWISE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MEAN STORM
MOTION OF EAST AT 20 MPH SUGGESTS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED TO CELL TRAINING...TOO LIMITED A THREAT TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT IS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NAM AND GFS THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIZZLING HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS. BUT THERE
IS A CAVEAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST ARE EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE INEVITABLE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A
BRIEF HEAT WAVE VS A MULTI-DAY EVENT. THUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAYS
FORECAST TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90S. NO RAIN IS FCST UNTIL THE FRONT
DROPS IN FRIDAY AS FCST BY THE SLOWER GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
TO LIFT BRIEFLY AS CONVECTION ROLES EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA STATELINE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH. THE
MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 04/10Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY LIFR AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 16Z. MODELS ALL POINT
TOWARD THE LOWER CEILINGS AND INCLUDED IN CURRENT TERMINAL FORECAST
FOR KLBF AND KVTN OVERNIGHT.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$
CDC/TLK

000
FXUS63 KOAX 031948
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT
WITH NUMEROUS WEATHER FEATURES OF INTEREST...THEN GENERALLY DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH MAY BRING IN
SOME SPOTTY PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

FIRST UPPER WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT BUT
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER REGION.
SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR MORE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DOUBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
KANSAS...WITH LEADING FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL KANSAS...NEAR WHERE THE
CLOUD FREE LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS AS DEPICTED ON LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FEEL THE 12Z 4KM WRF/18Z RUC HAS PERHAPS THE
BEST HANDLE ON DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION WITH STORMS LIKELY
FIRING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SCNTRAL NEBRASKA OR
NCNTRL KANSAS...THEN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON IT. AREAS DIRECTLY
ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER EAST OF THE FAIRBURY AND BEATRICE REGION
MAY NOT SEE MUCH...DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP...AND AREAS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEST OF NORFOLK MAY NOT SEE MUCH UNTIL
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE MAKE IT
THIS FAR EAST LATER TONIGHT. BEST CORRIDOR FOR HIGHEST POPS SEEMS
TO BE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY/I80 CORRIDORS TONIGHT...SHIFTING
IN WESTERN IOWA. THIS ALSO DOESN`T BODE WELL FOR VARIOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES TONIGHT AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED. REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL...CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY HAVE SERIOUSLY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWFA AND BEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARD A SMALL
SECTION OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WEST OF
BEATRICE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT AS
PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
SOME AREAS COULD EASILY PICKUP AN AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN OVERNIGHT
FROM OMAHA SOUTH AND EAST.

WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW...SOMEWHAT UNCHARACTERISTIC FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
EVERYTHING SHIFTS EAST THEN EXPECT CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER
80S...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE STREAMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WAVE WHICH MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HOT TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST AND ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TO OUR NORTH. GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MEX NUMBERS
HERE VERSUS THE COOLER ENSEMBLE TEMPS. A COOL FRONT DOES TRY TO MAKE
AN INCURSION INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK FORECAST VALID THROUGH 04/18Z.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PCPN CHANCES THRU THE TAF
PD. CURRENT BROAD SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A WRMFNT ACROSS KANSAS WL LIFT NWD AND
TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AND COULD BRING TSTM CHANCES
INTO KLNK AND KOMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DRIZZLE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND SO HAVE CONTINUED AN MVFR CIG
AND VIS THRU 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DEWALD/KERN

000
FXUS63 KGID 031916
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
216 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
RISK.

ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF THE CWFA HAS BEEN SHROUDED IN CLOUDS TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THAT
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SUNSHINE IN NORTH CENTRAL HAS BROUGHT A SURGE OF HOT
AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24
AND 80S ALONG HIGHWAY 36. BASICALLY THE WAY IT SETS UP...THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
AREA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN HILL CITY AND MCCOOK.

INSTABILITY AND SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS FINALLY
ATTEMPTING WITH INCREASE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. PSEUDO CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT BELOIT/SMITH CENTER/PHILLIPSBURG
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT HILL CITY. THIS IS DUE TO SUBTLE 5 DEGREE
DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
JUST WEST OF RUSSELL ON THIS CONVERGENCE LINE.

THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD/HALF OF THE CWFA. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SHARP UPPER WAVE COMING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL SLIDE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
IF NOT NUMEROUS IN NUMBER. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO FAVOR
THE EVENING HOURS FOR GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
AND ANY SEVERE RISK. WITH THE BOUNDARY AND LIKELIHOOD OF A
FEW SUPERCELLS...ALL MODES OF SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE IN PLAY.
ONE ISSUE WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME WILL BE THE FAIRLY
STRONG CAP...AND THAT MAY TAKE JUST A BIT BEFORE THAT WEAKENS
SUBSTANTIALLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS IN
NATURE AND MORE ELEVATED. EXPECT ALL OF THE RAIN TO FORMULATE
INTO A MCS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING...WITH MUCH OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CWFA BY MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ASSOCIATED NEAR
THE UPPER WAVE MAY ALSO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST CWFA OVERNIGHT...
BUT AM A LITTLE UNCERTAIN OF ITS COVERAGE POTENTIAL OR LASTING
EFFECTS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MORNING
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CWFA. HAVE SHIFTED TO SHOWERS WITH
COLD ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM
BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A COOL FOURTH OF JULY...AS A SOLID
NORTH WIND PREVAILS AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO GO AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS BACK TO THE 70S FOR MOST
OF NEBRASKA...AND THE LOWER 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THOUGH
COOLER...IT WON/T BE MUCH DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY BACK TO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A RATHER FALL-LIKE FEEL TO ANY EVENING FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS. DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ISSUES SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIKE MOST
OF THE WAVES RECENTLY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THAT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE RIDGE...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARM UP.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM DURING THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE
LOW AND A COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND THEREFORE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS WELL ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO WILL KEEP
THINGS WARM AND DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

AVIATION...18Z TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEAR ON IN THE KGRI AREA. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL SKIP BY THE SOUTH OF THE
KGRI AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS ALREADY TURNING EASTERLY
AND EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE VFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIT
AND MISS LIGHT SHOWERS...MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS LIKELY BY EARLY EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHARPENS
NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOLID LOW DECK CLOUDS BY
DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 031741
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEAR ON IN THE KGRI AREA. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL SKIP BY THE SOUTH OF THE
KGRI AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS ALREADY TURNING EASTERLY
AND EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT.
WHILE VFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIT
AND MISS LIGHT SHOWERS...MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS LIKELY BY EARLY EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHARPENS
NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. EXPECT AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOLID LOW DECK CLOUDS BY
DAWN SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

AVIATION...12Z TAF. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ONGOING SHOWERS AT THE GRI TERMINAL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SFC WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH FROM KANSAS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH CHANCES
LINGERING ON WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS START THE DAY
SOUTHEASTERLY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE TERMINAL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND. AS
WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...MODELS HINTING AT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS BUILDING IN WITH THE COOLER AIR AND POSSIBLY SOME
FOG DEVELOPING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT THIS POINT...BUT DID TREND CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR...AND WILL LET LATER TAFS MAKE TWEAKS WITH DETAILS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH
ANOTHER ONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES THIS MORNING...THE MOST
ORGANIZED OF WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THOUGH MOST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS MORNING DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LOW
LEVEL JET.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS AGREEING THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT 0-1KM MLCAPE
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE DUE TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THE
CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS ALREADY STRONGLY WORDED IN
REGARDS TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AND
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THAT THIS MORNING. ONE THING TO WATCH TODAY
WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER WAVES. THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE
TIMING IS ALSO SUCH THAT IT COULD BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE CONVECTION FIRES AGAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR
80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTH.

EVENTUALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BRING DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD TRY TO DRY OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THINK THOSE SHOULD FALL APART BEFORE THEY CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR
EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 031134
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.AVIATION...12Z TAF. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ONGOING SHOWERS AT THE GRI TERMINAL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SFC WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH FROM KANSAS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH CHANCES
LINGERING ON WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS START THE DAY
SOUTHEASTERLY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE TERMINAL WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BUILDING IN BEHIND. AS
WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...MODELS HINTING AT LOW
LEVEL STRATUS BUILDING IN WITH THE COOLER AIR AND POSSIBLY SOME
FOG DEVELOPING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT THIS POINT...BUT DID TREND CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR...AND WILL LET LATER TAFS MAKE TWEAKS WITH DETAILS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH
ANOTHER ONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES THIS MORNING...THE MOST
ORGANIZED OF WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THOUGH MOST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS MORNING DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LOW
LEVEL JET.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS AGREEING THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT 0-1KM MLCAPE
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE DUE TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THE
CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS ALREADY STRONGLY WORDED IN
REGARDS TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AND
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THAT THIS MORNING. ONE THING TO WATCH TODAY
WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER WAVES. THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE
TIMING IS ALSO SUCH THAT IT COULD BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE CONVECTION FIRES AGAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR
80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTH.

EVENTUALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BRING DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD TRY TO DRY OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THINK THOSE SHOULD FALL APART BEFORE THEY CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR
EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 030906
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
OVERNIGHT MCS LOCATION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH HIGH CENTERED IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE DEEP
TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE...WITH STRONGEST ON OVER THE HEART OF THE
CWA ATTM. AT THE SURFACE MAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED
NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER...TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO. FURTHER
NORTH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST...FROM CONVECTION THE PAST
DAY OR SO.

MODELS STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH NO MODEL CLOSE TO HAVING QPF/MCS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEB THIS MORNING...THUS CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION/QPF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS VERY LOW.

THIS MORNING SWATH OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH ONTO THE
EAST...WITH A BRIEF BREAK OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYZED TO HAVE NEXT WAVE OVER
WYOMING ALREADY. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURF TROF
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE TROF. COOL FRONT TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE
STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR STATIONARY FRONT AND SURF LOW
NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER...DO EXPECT SOME SCT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR.

LL MOISTURE REMAINS GOOD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH COOLER
AIR ADVECTING IN...EXPECT STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP. MODELS DO AGREE
WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING...AND MET GUIDANCE DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD
FOG. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW LONG BEFORE SUN SHINES ON
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER AND HAVE GONE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...LATE
MORNING. TIMING SUN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG BUST ON TEMPS
FOR THE HOLIDAY. HAVE SIDED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLE COOL IN THE 70S.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH A BETTER SHOT OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION OVER
THE ROCKIES MOVES EAST. WARMING THEN STARTS ON SUNDAY...AS RIDGE
BEGINS TO EXPAND. SHOULD STAY IN THE FAST MOVING FLOW AND ACTIVE
PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THEN AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND...CAP
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FOR MID WEEK...AT LEAST FOR
EVENING CONVECTION...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ROCKIES
CONVECTION SLIDING EAST. ALONG WITH THE RIDGE...WILL BE TEMPS
CREEPING INTO THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 15Z.  EXPECT SCATTERED VFR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFT 21Z TODAY.  AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OUT INTO NORTHERN KS WITH AN INVERTED TROF
BACK INTO WESTERN NE TONIGHT...IT WILL PULL MVFR/IFR CIGS INTO
NORTHWEST NE BY 03Z SAT AND SPREADS INTO THE KVTN AREA BY 06Z AND
THE KLBF AREA BY 12Z SAT.  THE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z SAT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...DDB

000
FXUS63 KGID 030822
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH
ANOTHER ONE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES THIS MORNING...THE MOST
ORGANIZED OF WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THOUGH MOST
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS MORNING DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LOW
LEVEL JET.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST SHORT TERM
FORECAST MODELS AGREEING THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT 0-1KM MLCAPE
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS 0-1KM
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE DUE TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. THE
CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS ALREADY STRONGLY WORDED IN
REGARDS TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AND
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THAT THIS MORNING. ONE THING TO WATCH TODAY
WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER WAVES. THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE
TIMING IS ALSO SUCH THAT IT COULD BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE CONVECTION FIRES AGAIN. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO
THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH HIGHS FROM NEAR
80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTH.

EVENTUALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS ACROSS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BRING DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD TRY TO DRY OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THINK THOSE SHOULD FALL APART BEFORE THEY CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SMALL DISTURBANCES SHIFT EAST...WHICH WILL
KEEP AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE GRI TERMINAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...A
SFC WARM FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SETTING UP NEAR THE TERMINAL AND PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE
STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 030820
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE/COVERAGE OF TSTMS...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WRN/NRN NE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT INTO SERN NE FROM BAND THAT STRETCHED
FROM CNTRL NE TO ERN KS. NRN AREA OF PCPN SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MONSOONAL FLOW FROM THE
ROCKIES...WHILE THE SRN AREA APPEARS TO BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THETA E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. MODELS SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR INCREASING DURING THE DAY TO LEVELS ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS
BUT IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING AROUND
2 INCHES BY EVENING. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN
TODAY...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. WENT WITH A
DECENT RANGE...FROM MID AND UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS KS
WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING FROM NERN KS INTO SWRN MO BY LATE THIS
AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. AGREE WITH SPC THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT...POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF SERN NE...
THIS EVENING. PCPN SHOULD TRY TO SHIFT SEWD OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT. KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY...BUT QPF WOULD
PROBABLY BE VERY LIGHT IF ANYTHING OCCURS.

KEPT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY...FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS BY LATE WEEK...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 90S. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S. 850 MB MOISTURE STARTS TO
INCREASE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS WAS ADDED
MAINLY FOR OUR NRN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK FORECAST VALID THROUGH 04/06Z

MAIN AVN CONCERN THIS PD IS TIMING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN
NEB. SCATTERED TS ACTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO PASSING UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH COLLIDING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT ONSET OF -TSRA/MVFR MAINLY SECOND HALF OF FCST PD...
BEGINNING TWD 21Z AT KOFK AND 23Z AT KOMA/KLNK AND CONTINUING THRU
THE REST OF THE PD. HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION ANY POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
THIS FAR OUT...BUT CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OF OCCURRING.
OTHERWISE MAY ADD TEMPO GROUPS AT 12Z TAF ISSUANCE TO HANDLE ONGOING
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE

000
FXUS63 KGID 030532
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009


.AVIATION...06Z TAF. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SMALL DISTURBANCES SHIFT EAST...WHICH WILL
KEEP AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE GRI TERMINAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...A
SFC WARM FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...SETTING UP NEAR THE TERMINAL AND PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
EASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE
STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

UPDATE...PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
THIS SEVERE THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE LAST TWO DAYS. RECENT 18Z AND
NOW 00Z NAM RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO INCREASE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WORDING IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY REASONS FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCLUDE THE COMBINATION OF A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF GREATER THAN 3000
J/KG...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...HIGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
40 TO 55 KTS...DECENT LOW LEVEL 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND
20 KTS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. A
HEALTHY CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE A POTENTIAL HINDERING
FACTOR...BUT BELIEVE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY FRIDAY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

SHORT TERM...CWFA CURRENTLY UNDER A SUBSIDENT TYPE FLOW BEHIND WHAT
IS LEFT OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...NOW LINGERING ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT IS TRYING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY.

BELIEVE SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT NOT MUCH OF
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES AS A RESULT THIS EVENING...BUT TRENDS
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTING FIRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN SOME BY LATE TONIGHT...SO A STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE.

EXPECT SOME MIGRATION SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWFA OF LIKELY
SOUTH DAKOTA MCS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE DECAYING...BUT MORE
THAN CAPABLE OF SENDING OUT A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MODELS
PROBABLY DON/T HANDLING THAT TOO WELL...BUT THEY DO TRY TO FOCUS
A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR NEAR THE BORDER. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...AND IT APPEARS A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS BY EVENING...FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IS THERE AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES...BUT NAILING
DOWN LOCATION SPECIFICS IS TOUGH WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
INFLUENCE. HAVE KEPT THE BEST SHOT FOR WEATHER IN THE SOUTH AND
UPPED THE ANTE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TIMING THESE WEAK WAVES IS CHALLENGING AND EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF AN ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THERE IS SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUPPORT TO GET ANYTHING GOING. EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 90S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 030308
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1008 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.UPDATE...PRIMARY CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
THIS SEVERE THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE LAST TWO DAYS. RECENT 18Z AND
NOW 00Z NAM RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO INCREASE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WORDING IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY REASONS FOR
ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCLUDE THE COMBINATION OF A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF GREATER THAN 3000
J/KG...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...HIGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
40 TO 55 KTS...DECENT LOW LEVEL 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND
20 KTS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. A
HEALTHY CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE A POTENTIAL HINDERING
FACTOR...BUT BELIEVE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY FRIDAY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN
OVERCOME THE CAP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND LATE
TONIGHT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND
FOCUSES IN ON THE AREA. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL HANG OUT JUST SOUTH OF
KGRI THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW KEEPING WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF
THE EAST...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GENERAL AREA. FOR NOW WILL
JUST GO WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS SOUTH OF KGRI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

SHORT TERM...CWFA CURRENTLY UNDER A SUBSIDENT TYPE FLOW BEHIND WHAT
IS LEFT OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...NOW LINGERING ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT IS TRYING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY.

BELIEVE SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT NOT MUCH OF
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES AS A RESULT THIS EVENING...BUT TRENDS
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTING FIRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN SOME BY LATE TONIGHT...SO A STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE.

EXPECT SOME MIGRATION SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWFA OF LIKELY
SOUTH DAKOTA MCS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE DECAYING...BUT MORE
THAN CAPABLE OF SENDING OUT A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MODELS
PROBABLY DON/T HANDLING THAT TOO WELL...BUT THEY DO TRY TO FOCUS
A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR NEAR THE BORDER. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...AND IT APPEARS A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS BY EVENING...FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IS THERE AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES...BUT NAILING
DOWN LOCATION SPECIFICS IS TOUGH WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
INFLUENCE. HAVE KEPT THE BEST SHOT FOR WEATHER IN THE SOUTH AND
UPPED THE ANTE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TIMING THESE WEAK WAVES IS CHALLENGING AND EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF AN ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THERE IS SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUPPORT TO GET ANYTHING GOING. EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 90S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY

000
FXUS63 KGID 022344
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND LATE
TONIGHT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND
FOCUSES IN ON THE AREA. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL HANG OUT JUST SOUTH OF
KGRI THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW KEEPING WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF
THE EAST...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GENERAL AREA. FOR NOW WILL
JUST GO WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS SOUTH OF KGRI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

SHORT TERM...CWFA CURRENTLY UNDER A SUBSIDENT TYPE FLOW BEHIND WHAT
IS LEFT OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...NOW LINGERING ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT IS TRYING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY.

BELIEVE SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT NOT MUCH OF
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES AS A RESULT THIS EVENING...BUT TRENDS
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTING FIRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN SOME BY LATE TONIGHT...SO A STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE.

EXPECT SOME MIGRATION SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWFA OF LIKELY
SOUTH DAKOTA MCS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE DECAYING...BUT MORE
THAN CAPABLE OF SENDING OUT A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MODELS
PROBABLY DON/T HANDLING THAT TOO WELL...BUT THEY DO TRY TO FOCUS
A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR NEAR THE BORDER. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...AND IT APPEARS A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS BY EVENING...FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IS THERE AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES...BUT NAILING
DOWN LOCATION SPECIFICS IS TOUGH WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
INFLUENCE. HAVE KEPT THE BEST SHOT FOR WEATHER IN THE SOUTH AND
UPPED THE ANTE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TIMING THESE WEAK WAVES IS CHALLENGING AND EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF AN ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THERE IS SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUPPORT TO GET ANYTHING GOING. EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 90S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KOAX 022014
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TOPPING THE RIDGE WL GIVE US A FEW CHANCES FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE SFC...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER THE KS/OK/CO BORDER WITH
A WRMFNT STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING THE CURRENT
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO AN MCS
AND ROLLING IT THRU N CNTRL NEB AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHERN HALF
OF CWA FRIDAY MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO DECAY. IT IS QUESTIONABLE
WHAT SORT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS WILL SEND OUT AND WHAT MAY BE
ABLE TO CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
SO HAVE KEPT A POP GOING. MEANWHILE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC LOW
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEWD AND PUSH THE WRMFNT NWD THRU
KS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KTS...SB CAPES NEAR 3000
J/KG AND LITTLE CIN INVOF THE WRMFNT SHOULD SPARK TSTMS NEAR THE
KS/NEB BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.

MUCH OF SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF THE
NRN PLAINS. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THRU NWRLY FLOW HOWEVER THE
STRONGER ENERGY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST.

WL GO WITH A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS KEEPING ACTIVE FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. HAVE WARMED
TEMPS AND BOOSTED DEW POINTS AS LLVL SRLY FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK FORECAST VALID THROUGH 03/18Z

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT TAF SITES
BY 11-13Z...AND ONLY MENTIONED CB FOR THE CLOUD GROUP AT THIS
TIME...VERSUS INCLUDING THUNDER.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

KERN/DEWALD

000
FXUS63 KLBF 022009
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
DISTINCT SHORT WAVE CROSSING WY THIS AFTN HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN MT AND SWRN SD.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES IN SERN WY
AND ERN COLO WITHOUT SUCCESS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FCST WOULD BE FOR A
MCS TO FORM OFF THE BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD MOVE ESE
ALONG OR NEAR THE NEB SD BORDER PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z WITH LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE...MAINLY ACROSS SRN SD. FARTHER SOUTH...NO CAP IS IN
PLACE BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE LESS STEEP
PREVENTING SEVERE STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. THE BLENDED SOLNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS SUGGESTED THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
61 THIS EVENING AND ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ELSEWHERE AS A SEPARATE 850MB WARM FRONT IS
FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE KS NEB BORDER TONIGHT AND IT APPEARS THE
INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN
NEB BUT ALL MODELS ARE DRY ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT. TWO MCSS COULD
FORM TONIGHT NEAR THE SD AND KS BORDERS. THE SD MCS IS THE MOST
LIKELY OF THE TWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS WY THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS SD FRIDAY PRODUCING
MULTICELL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH WRN NEB IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN AND CNTL NEB. SPC SUGGESTED SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WRN AND SRN NEB.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG IN A WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND AND AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS NRN KS
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO FUNNEL NWWD ONTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS WY AND THROUGH
NEB. HPC SUGGESTED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS WETTER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS WHICH SHOWED A CONSENSUS
OF ABOUT HALF THAT AMOUNT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTL U.S..
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ACTING TO
DRAW HOT DESERT AIR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THE ATM WILL REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE DAY WITH JUST
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING OR AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN MARCHING INTO THE 90S TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY WITH MID AND UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY. NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP
INTO NRN NEB PERHAPS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE THE NEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER AND H10-5 THICKNESSES ARE FCST TO RISE TO
588DM BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE 100F HIGHS SO ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SLIGHT PROBLEMS IN
RESOLVING CONVECTIVE QPF AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WEST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS. NAM12 IS PICKING UP ON SOME OF THIS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL AT 00Z THIS EVENING.
THEN OVERNIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTHEAST CONVECTION
ROLLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR HIGH
BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH TO INCLUDE THE KVTN TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT FROM 09Z TO 15Z.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$
CDC/TLK

000
FXUS63 KGID 022004
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
304 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...CWFA CURRENTLY UNDER A SUBSIDENT TYPE FLOW BEHIND WHAT
IS LEFT OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...NOW LINGERING ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT IS TRYING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY.

BELIEVE SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT NOT MUCH OF
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
CWFA. HAVE LOWERED CHANCES AS A RESULT THIS EVENING...BUT TRENDS
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASED WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTING FIRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN SOME BY LATE TONIGHT...SO A STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE.

EXPECT SOME MIGRATION SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN CWFA OF LIKELY
SOUTH DAKOTA MCS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THAT WILL BE DECAYING...BUT MORE
THAN CAPABLE OF SENDING OUT A DECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MODELS
PROBABLY DON/T HANDLING THAT TOO WELL...BUT THEY DO TRY TO FOCUS
A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR NEAR THE BORDER. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...AND IT APPEARS A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS BY EVENING...FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IS THERE AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES...BUT NAILING
DOWN LOCATION SPECIFICS IS TOUGH WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
INFLUENCE. HAVE KEPT THE BEST SHOT FOR WEATHER IN THE SOUTH AND
UPPED THE ANTE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL
BE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TIMING THESE WEAK WAVES IS CHALLENGING AND EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF AN ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THERE IS SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUPPORT TO GET ANYTHING GOING. EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 90S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

AVIATION...18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS KGRI IS IN THE WAKE OF MCV-LIKE CIRCULATION
AND LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. LATE IN THE FORECAST...LOW
LEVEL JET SPARKS OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. CONTINUED THE RISK FOR RAINFALL TOWARD DAWN WITH A PROBABILITY
RISK...BUT SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ABOUTS ITS FULL POTENTIAL TO OCCUR.
SOME HINTS AT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY FRIDAY IN EASTERLY BASED FLOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 021729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS KGRI IS IN THE WAKE OF MCV-LIKE CIRCULATION
AND LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. LATE IN THE FORECAST...LOW
LEVEL JET SPARKS OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. CONTINUED THE RISK FOR RAINFALL TOWARD DAWN WITH A PROBABILITY
RISK...BUT SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ABOUTS ITS FULL POTENTIAL TO OCCUR.
SOME HINTS AT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY FRIDAY IN EASTERLY BASED FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL CEILING TO SCATTER
OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING BACK LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING LATE WHEN IT MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND TO THE GULF COAST REGION. ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT...WITH
MOSTLY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT...WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
WESTERN KS...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE EAST. ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE PRECIP MOVING THROUGH...SKIES ARE OVERCAST WITH
VARIABLE WINDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
LEAVE LINGERING POPS IN FOR NOW...AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.  OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
MORNINGS SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.  NOT A LOT OF CHANGES LOOKING AT THE SFC...WITH LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER WESTERN KS AND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT. BUT KEPT A SMALL POP ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE
CWA...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FURTHER
WEST...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION INCREASE AS WE
GET INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA COMING FROM THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET/INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY...EXPECTING OVERNIGHT ACTION TO BE SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z...WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
MORNING.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CWA REMAINS GENERALLY
ZONAL...WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...HELPING
TO PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TO THE CWA. AS WE GET INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS
EAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC FRONT.
RECENT MODELS RUNS SHOW THIS FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. LOOKS TO BE A
CHANCE TO SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER...WITH FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT AND MODELS SHOWING DECENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO AFFECT NC KS/FAR SOUTHERN NEB...DECREASING
FURTHER NORTH. MAIN ACTION THEN SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH DIMINISHING POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...BIT TRICKY WITH THE SFC FRONT
MEANDERING AROUND SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO MIX BETTER
NEAR THE FRONT AND REACH INTO THE 90S WITH NORTHERN AREAS STAYING
IN THE LOWER 80S.

INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...KEPT ONLY A SMALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE CONUS...SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. AS IS THE CASE WITH FRIDAY...WHILE
NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OR ANYTHING...WITH TYPE OF FLOW
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH...THE CWA SITS WITH ENE WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS CALLING FOR UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.

AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT
GETTING PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SO CHANGED THE PROB30 TO A TEMPO
GROUP OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...I DO EXPECT THAT THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY THETA-E ADVECTION. LIGHTNING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
LACK OF CAPE...BUT KEPT -TSRA IN JUST IN CASE THERE IS AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING BOLT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGID 021155
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
655 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL CEILING TO SCATTER
OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING BACK LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE FORECAST. WIND SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING LATE WHEN IT MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND TO THE GULF COAST REGION. ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT...WITH
MOSTLY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT...WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
WESTERN KS...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE EAST. ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE PRECIP MOVING THROUGH...SKIES ARE OVERCAST WITH
VARIABLE WINDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
LEAVE LINGERING POPS IN FOR NOW...AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.  OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
MORNINGS SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.  NOT A LOT OF CHANGES LOOKING AT THE SFC...WITH LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER WESTERN KS AND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT. BUT KEPT A SMALL POP ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE
CWA...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FURTHER
WEST...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION INCREASE AS WE
GET INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA COMING FROM THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET/INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY...EXPECTING OVERNIGHT ACTION TO BE SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z...WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
MORNING.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CWA REMAINS GENERALLY
ZONAL...WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...HELPING
TO PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TO THE CWA. AS WE GET INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS
EAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC FRONT.
RECENT MODELS RUNS SHOW THIS FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. LOOKS TO BE A
CHANCE TO SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER...WITH FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT AND MODELS SHOWING DECENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO AFFECT NC KS/FAR SOUTHERN NEB...DECREASING
FURTHER NORTH. MAIN ACTION THEN SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH DIMINISHING POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...BIT TRICKY WITH THE SFC FRONT
MEANDERING AROUND SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO MIX BETTER
NEAR THE FRONT AND REACH INTO THE 90S WITH NORTHERN AREAS STAYING
IN THE LOWER 80S.

INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...KEPT ONLY A SMALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE CONUS...SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. AS IS THE CASE WITH FRIDAY...WHILE
NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OR ANYTHING...WITH TYPE OF FLOW
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH...THE CWA SITS WITH ENE WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS CALLING FOR UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.

AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT
GETTING PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SO CHANGED THE PROB30 TO A TEMPO
GROUP OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...I DO EXPECT THAT THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY THETA-E ADVECTION. LIGHTNING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
LACK OF CAPE...BUT KEPT -TSRA IN JUST IN CASE THERE IS AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING BOLT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...HEINLEIN

000
FXUS63 KGID 020906
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND TO THE GULF COAST REGION. ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND ALONG WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY 20 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL
JET...HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT...WITH
MOSTLY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT...WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
WESTERN KS...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE EAST. ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH THE PRECIP MOVING THROUGH...SKIES ARE OVERCAST WITH
VARIABLE WINDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL
LEAVE LINGERING POPS IN FOR NOW...AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.  OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
MORNINGS SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.  NOT A LOT OF CHANGES LOOKING AT THE SFC...WITH LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER WESTERN KS AND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT. BUT KEPT A SMALL POP ACROSS THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE
CWA...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHILE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS FURTHER
WEST...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE REGION INCREASE AS WE
GET INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PLAINS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CWA COMING FROM THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET/INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY...EXPECTING OVERNIGHT ACTION TO BE SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z...WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
MORNING.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CWA REMAINS GENERALLY
ZONAL...WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS FURTHER NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEB...HELPING
TO PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TO THE CWA. AS WE GET INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS
EAST...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC FRONT.
RECENT MODELS RUNS SHOW THIS FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. LOOKS TO BE A
CHANCE TO SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER...WITH FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT AND MODELS SHOWING DECENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO AFFECT NC KS/FAR SOUTHERN NEB...DECREASING
FURTHER NORTH. MAIN ACTION THEN SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH DIMINISHING POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO...BIT TRICKY WITH THE SFC FRONT
MEANDERING AROUND SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO MIX BETTER
NEAR THE FRONT AND REACH INTO THE 90S WITH NORTHERN AREAS STAYING
IN THE LOWER 80S.

INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...KEPT ONLY A SMALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE CONUS...SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. AS IS THE CASE WITH FRIDAY...WHILE
NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE RAIN OUT OR ANYTHING...WITH TYPE OF FLOW
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER SOUTH...THE CWA SITS WITH ENE WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS CALLING FOR UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT
GETTING PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SO CHANGED THE PROB30 TO A TEMPO
GROUP OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...I DO EXPECT THAT THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY THETA-E ADVECTION. LIGHTNING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
LACK OF CAPE...BUT KEPT -TSRA IN JUST IN CASE THERE IS AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING BOLT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLBF 020903
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
403 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG
WITH HIGHS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS WITH DEEP TROF OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. INBETWEEN SYSTEMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMING UP THE ROCKIES...EVENTUALLY ROUNDING
THE RIDGE AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAS FIRED
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS NW INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

00Z MODELS NOT HANDLING MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY VERY WELL...NOR
DID EARLIER MODELS HANDLE LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. THUS HAVE
LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN MODELS THIS MORNING. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE
LEANED HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE WITH ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON MODELS.

STEEP LAPSE RATE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO LINGER SEVERAL MORE HOURS...HOWEVER AFTER SUNRISE...LIKE
YESTERDAY...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE FOR MIDDAY.
BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS NEXT ROUND TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON.
NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER WY WILL BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT.
ADDED SURF MOISTURE FROM LATEST RAIN TO ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
THE DEW PT...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY...LOW TO MID 80S. PEAK HEAT SHOULD WORK WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO FIRE STORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND BLACK
HILLS...THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN. EXPECT BEST
CHANCE AFTER 6Z...HOWEVER GREATEST PERIOD OF INSTABILITY TO OCCUR
LATE AFTERNOON. CAP WILL BE MARGINAL SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

FRIDAY TO BE A REPEAT OF THURSDAY AS ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES...HOWEVER MODELS BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING MORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY
THE FOURTH...NO MAJOR SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE STORMS. MODELS DO
INCREASE PW/S AND HINT AT MORNING STRATUS OVER PART OF THE CWA.
DEPENDING ON LIFTING OF CLOUDS...LOW CONFIDENCE ON HIGHS.

NEXT CHANGE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CONSISTENCE IN THE MODELS FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. RIDGE TO EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...PUSHING RING OF FIRE INTO THE DAKOTAS. TEMPS ALSO WARM
INTO THE 90S. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN
SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH
15Z FROM KBBW NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KCDR.  OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF
THESE STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE. IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
06Z FRI...COVERING MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT VISIBILITIES MAY ONCE AGAIN DROP TO
1-2 MILES IN HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM 21Z THU
THROUGH 12Z FRI.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...MASEK
AVIATION...DDB

000
FXUS63 KOAX 020843
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
343 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...

RATHER INTERESTING SITUATION TRYING TO DETERMINE ONSET OF PCPN OVER
THE CWA TONIGHT. APPEARS INITIAL THREAT FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE
NWRN CWA THIS EVENING WHEN EMBEDDED IMPULSES COUPLED WITH AREA OF
LLVL 2-D FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/MOIST CONVG GENERATE A COMPLEX IN THE
WRN DAKOTAS. LATEST NSSL 4KM WRF SUGGESTING THE MCS WILL PUSH CLOSE
TO THE NRN CWA TWD MIDNIGHT BEFORE NWD BOUND WARM FRONT OUT OF KS
SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION AND HOLDS COMPLEX SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SD/NEB
BORDER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL THEN BE THE
FOCUS FOR TSRA ACTIVITY. SEEMS TO BE MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE NAM/CMC/ECM WITH FROPA TIMING THRU THE CWA EARLY ON AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT BNDRY PLACEMENT THRU THE WEEKEND. ALL SEEMS TO SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN DRIFTING SOUTH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTN AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF KS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER
SATURDAY NIGHT WRT SFC LOW POSITIONING AND POTENT IMPULSE CROSSING
THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS RESULTING IN GENEROUS QPF AMOUNTS OVER KS AND
PARTS OF SRN NEB. THUS WILL OPT FOR DRY FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK FORECAST VALID THROUGH 03/06Z

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...AS
BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION PUSHES EASTWARD FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL POSITIONED ACROSS THE WEST...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE
RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
ADJACENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY...HAVE MENTIONED LIGHT SHRA AT
LINCOLN BEGINNING NEAR 15Z...BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE OUT AT 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

DEE/KURTZ

000
FXUS63 KGID 020743
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
243 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT
GETTING PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...SO CHANGED THE PROB30 TO A TEMPO
GROUP OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE CWA...I DO EXPECT THAT THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY THETA-E ADVECTION. LIGHTNING WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
LACK OF CAPE...BUT KEPT -TSRA IN JUST IN CASE THERE IS AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING BOLT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA...I DO EXPECT THAT THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AIDED BY THETA-E ADVECTION. LIGHTNING WILL BE LIMITED IN
THE CENTRAL/NORTH/EAST CWA WITH LESS CAPE TO WORK WITH. INCREASED
QPF AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2009/

UPDATE...00Z NAM AND RUC ALONG WITH 18Z GFS SHOW A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
NOSE OF THE JET SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER
1 AM. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 40 PERCENT...WHILE MAINTAINING 40
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. MUCAPE IS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE A STRONG STORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AFTER 1 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2009/

AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG A SFC TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST AND COULD MOVE INTO THE KGRI
AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2009/

SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS AN UNUSUALLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY JULY WITH A LARGE RIDGE
SITTING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A
DEEP VORTEX IS SEEN SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS IS LEAVING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH
SEVERAL SMALL WAVES SEEN ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AND DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.  RECENT OBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
REGION OF COLORADO INTO WYOMING WHILE A NEARLY STALLED WARM FRONT IS
POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.  ALTHOUGH FAR FROM BEING DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS VIA UPPER 40 TO 50 DEGREE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
OR HIGHER REMAINS TRAPPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS IS
EFFECTIVELY KEEPING ANY DECENT INSTABILITY WITHIN THE LOWER KM
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RUC AND LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE 500 J/KG OR
LESS IS SEEN AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 281.  STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS...HAS ALREADY
ALLOWED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK HIGH BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR FROM THE AINSWORTH
AREA TO NEAR GREELEY DESPITE LITTLE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

AS THE AREA HEADS INTO LATE THIS EVENING TO OVERNIGHT THE WARM FRONT
IS SHOWN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TO
NORTHEAST COLORADO.  NONETHELESS...THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO LOOK
CAPPED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAKEST CAPPING AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING STAYS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  EXPECT THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WHILE THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS STAY DRY/CAPPED.
HOWEVER...AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MODEST 30-40KT LLJ NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST
KANSAS.  DESPITE ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
CWA...EXPECT THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CWA MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK CONVECTION SUSTAINING EASTWARD DURING
THE MID TO LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...MINIMAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 600MB IS SHOWN TO BE AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA
AFTER SUNSET.  THIS LOOKS TO KILL ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. NONETHELESS...CAN/T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STORMS DROPPING HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WEST OF AN ORD TO PHILLIPSBURG LINE.

DESPITE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...MOST OF THURSDAY IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE QUIET AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS WHILE THE WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE CWA ON THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
THE ONE EXCEPTION EXISTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOISTURE
POOLING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING CAPE VALUES UP
TO 700-900 J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.  ALTHOUGH UPPER
FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND CAPPING STILL MODEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE ATTENTION
THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS
POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO A 40-45KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE CWA.  GIVEN THE
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE INTO THE FRONT RANGE REGION...EXPECT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO POSSIBLY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO FAR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  OVERALL SETUP FOR SEVERE IS NOT GREAT BUT WILL
MENTION A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE HWO.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THESE
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE AREA SINCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAINLY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DO NOT EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE RAIN ALL OF THE TIME...BUT EXPECT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE
THROUGH. THE TOUGH PART OF IT IS TIMING THESE WAVES. EACH MODEL
GIVES A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT DEPICTION OF THE TIMING AND NONE OF THEM
ARE VERY CONSISTENT EITHER WITH EACH OTHER OR EVEN RUN TO RUN. BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A LITTLE BUT WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. TIMING OF THESE CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFICULT AND EXPECT THERE TO BE INTERMITTENT CHANCES AS THE WAVES
MOVE THROUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR NO
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE THERE IS A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS
HAVE BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH KEEPING THE WAVES EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH
A FEW 90S IN THE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...HEINLEIN