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000
FXUS65 KABQ 050915
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION STILL ACTIVE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WIND DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST UPPER HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA. ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
BLEEDING INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT WON/T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS OCCURRED LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVECTION ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEFORE DEVELOPING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
MONDAY. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE...IN GENERAL...FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHEAST CORNER WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY.
00Z MODEL RUNS DON/T BUILD THE HIGH AS STRONGLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TENDING TOWARDS FLATTER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ISN/T
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY
HAVE RESTORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...GFS INDICATES HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER NEW
MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD
LIMIT OR SHUT DOWN ANY CHANCE FOR ANOTHER BURST OF MOISTURE FROM OLD
MEXICO...CONFINING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD BE
RATHER SMALL...TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT...THE HIGH CENTER
MAY WOBBLE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. LATEST ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTS
THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
WILL WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE...ALLOWING FOR SOME CENTURY READINGS IN
THE EAST...AND SOME MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THRU
SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KTS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO 3SM AND CIGS TO 030. LIGHT
GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL ABOUT
15Z. A BRIEF BREAK IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 15Z-19Z BEFORE ACTIVITY
FIRES UP AGAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KTS. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
FAVOR MORE OF A GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL MTS EASTWARD.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE MOIST PLUME HAS DEFORMED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF NM WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR
SLIDES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. THE DRIEST AIR AT THE
SURFACE IS STILL POOLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT GAP WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL ADVECT HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITIES TO ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL MTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
DRIER LOW LEVELS MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER MONDAY THEN INTO
CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES TUMBLE INTO
THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RECOVERIES WILL
STILL BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAINES VALUES WILL PUSH 5 AND 6 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS A STRONG DOME OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NM.
WESTERN VALLEYS WILL PUSH THE UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK WITH LOTS OF 100S
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
PERIODIC SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY...KEEPING RH VALUES AND THE CHANCES OF
RECYCLED STORMS THE HIGHEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 93 59 94 57 / 20 10 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 88 51 89 50 / 10 10 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 87 53 89 52 / 30 20 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 94 58 95 58 / 20 30 20 20
CHAMA........................... 80 44 82 43 / 50 30 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 82 55 85 54 / 50 40 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 73 42 76 41 / 60 40 30 20
TAOS............................ 83 50 85 48 / 50 50 40 20
SANTA FE........................ 85 54 86 55 / 50 40 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 57 88 57 / 40 40 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 87 56 91 54 / 40 40 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 66 91 65 / 40 40 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 62 92 62 / 40 40 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 61 87 61 / 40 40 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 63 91 62 / 40 40 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 88 63 92 63 / 30 40 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 51 82 51 / 40 40 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 55 88 55 / 40 40 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 59 89 60 / 30 30 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 79 51 81 53 / 30 40 30 30
RATON........................... 84 52 86 52 / 40 30 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 81 51 84 54 / 50 40 40 30
ROY............................. 81 59 85 60 / 40 30 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 83 60 88 62 / 30 30 30 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 60 90 61 / 40 30 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 64 91 65 / 50 30 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 87 65 91 65 / 50 30 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 85 63 90 65 / 50 20 30 30
PORTALES........................ 87 65 92 67 / 50 20 20 40
ROSWELL......................... 89 67 93 69 / 40 30 20 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 050321 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
921 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TONIGHTS POPS...SKY AND WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. ALTHOUGH ONE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...ADDITIONAL
PERTURBATIONS IN NW FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THAT CORNER OF
THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MEANWHILE...MODELS PROG THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS KEEPING THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING STATEWIDE...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NOW EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SPC CONTINUING SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BROADLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RATON TO TUCUMCARI. ON THE CHARTS...BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. DOWNSTAIRS...COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS REACHED A SOCORRO
TO ROSWELL LINE...WITH WIND SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH
OF THE FRONT PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE HELP FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MODELS...REASONABLE CONSENSUS AND PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION MAINTAINS
BROAD ZONAL RIDGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VEERING FLOW ALOFT
TO NORTHWEST OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE WORK WEEK GETS UNDERWAY. BY
MIDWEEK...RIDGE CORE DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND PUT BRAKES ON NORTHWARD
MOISTURE SURGE. RIDGE CORE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO FOR LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR WARM UP...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WORKING WITH
RECYCLED MOISTURE INITIATING ON SLOPES AND MOVING SLOWLY TO
VALLEYS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONT STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST PROVIDING
CONTINUED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD TURN
SEVERE...WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL PUSHING INTO LARGER SIZES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER AND EXPAND OVER INITIATION
POINTS...AND WILL EXPECT A BUSY NIGHT FOR THE HYDROLOGY DEPARTMENT
OVERNIGHT.
INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY ON TAP...WITH SLIGHT
RISK CONTINUING FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN ZONE
OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH CONTINUED WEAK COOL
ADVECTION PRESSING SOUTH AND WEST. TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE
EAST OF THE STATE WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...PROVIDING VERTICAL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO COLUMN AND SUPPORTING STRONGER VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONTINUING NORTHBOUND
MOISTURE PENETRATION INTO THE STATE WILL PROLONG LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING WOE TO WRAP UP THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ESSENTIALLY STATEWIDE.
INTO MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT VEERED TO NORTHWEST UP AND OVER
DEVELOPING RIDGE CORE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE STATE WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RATCHET DOWN NORTHBOUND MOISTURE ADVECTION..AND
LEAVE DEVELOPING CONVECTION RECYCLED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
EXPECTING DOWNTICK IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST END OF THE STATE.
INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARMING BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS RIDGE CORE EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER EASTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH INITIATION ON SLOPES NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN GENTLE WEST FLOW.
LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
STATEWIDE...WITH CONVECTION WORK CUT OUT TO PUSH THROUGH BROAD
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL LEVEL OUT FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME EASTWARD CREEP
OF THE RIDGE CORE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REOPEN THE NORTHBOUND
MOISTURE TAP AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST INTO TONIGHT WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CIGS TO 025 AND VSBYS TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN STORMS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL
WITH ANY STORM.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NM TODAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FRESH
SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
THROUGH TONIGHT. WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A MAJORITY OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REBUILD TO THE WEST OF THE STATE SUNDAY
AND BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALREADY
ORGANIZING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS INDICATE TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR HIGHER WITH WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE WEST.
MIN RH VALUES DOWN IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY IN THIS AREA. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. RH RECOVERIES WILL STILL BE GOOD ACROSS THE
EAST.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH MAY WOBBLE SLIGHTLY EAST
INTO TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. MODELS ALSO AGREE BY NEXT WEEKEND THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE WEST AGAIN OVER NM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
SUPPRESSING WETTING RAINFALL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
44
000
FXUS65 KABQ 042056
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
256 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING STATEWIDE...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NOW EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SPC CONTINUING SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BROADLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RATON TO TUCUMCARI. ON THE CHARTS...BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. DOWNSTAIRS...COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS REACHED A SOCORRO
TO ROSWELL LINE...WITH WIND SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH
OF THE FRONT PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE HELP FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MODELS...REASONABLE CONSENSUS AND PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION MAINTAINS
BROAD ZONAL RIDGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VEERING FLOW ALOFT
TO NORTHWEST OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE WORK WEEK GETS UNDERWAY. BY
MIDWEEK...RIDGE CORE DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND PUT BRAKES ON NORTHWARD
MOISTURE SURGE. RIDGE CORE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO FOR LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR WARM UP...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WORKING WITH
RECYCLED MOISTURE INITIATING ON SLOPES AND MOVING SLOWLY TO
VALLEYS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONT STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST PROVIDING
CONTINUED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD TURN
SEVERE...WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL PUSHING INTO LARGER SIZES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER AND EXPAND OVER INITIATION
POINTS...AND WILL EXPECT A BUSY NIGHT FOR THE HYDROLOGY DEPARTMENT
OVERNIGHT.
INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY ON TAP...WITH SLIGHT
RISK CONTINUING FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN ZONE
OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH CONTINUED WEAK COOL
ADVECTION PRESSING SOUTH AND WEST. TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE
EAST OF THE STATE WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...PROVIDING VERTICAL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO COLUMN AND SUPPORTING STRONGER VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONTINUING NORTHBOUND
MOISTURE PENETRATION INTO THE STATE WILL PROLONG LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING WOE TO WRAP UP THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ESSENTIALLY STATEWIDE.
INTO MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT VEERED TO NORTHWEST UP AND OVER
DEVELOPING RIDGE CORE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE STATE WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RATCHET DOWN NORTHBOUND MOISTURE ADVECTION..AND
LEAVE DEVELOPING CONVECTION RECYCLED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
EXPECTING DOWNTICK IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST END OF THE STATE.
INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARMING BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS RIDGE CORE EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER EASTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH INITIATION ON SLOPES NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN GENTLE WEST FLOW.
LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
STATEWIDE...WITH CONVECTION WORK CUT OUT TO PUSH THROUGH BROAD
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL LEVEL OUT FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME EASTWARD CREEP
OF THE RIDGE CORE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REOPEN THE NORTHBOUND
MOISTURE TAP AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST INTO TONIGHT WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CIGS TO 025 AND VSBYS TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN STORMS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL
WITH ANY STORM.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NM TODAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FRESH
SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
THROUGH TONIGHT. WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A MAJORITY OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REBUILD TO THE WEST OF THE STATE SUNDAY
AND BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALREADY
ORGANIZING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS INDICATE TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR HIGHER WITH WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE WEST.
MIN RH VALUES DOWN IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY IN THIS AREA. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. RH RECOVERIES WILL STILL BE GOOD ACROSS THE
EAST.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH MAY WOBBLE SLIGHTLY EAST
INTO TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. MODELS ALSO AGREE BY NEXT WEEKEND THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE WEST AGAIN OVER NM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
SUPPRESSING WETTING RAINFALL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CHJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 61 93 61 95 / 10 5 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 55 87 54 90 / 10 10 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 55 86 55 89 / 20 20 5 10
GLENWOOD........................ 63 94 62 97 / 20 20 10 10
CHAMA........................... 47 79 47 82 / 30 30 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 82 55 84 / 30 30 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 43 73 42 75 / 30 50 20 20
TAOS............................ 51 83 51 85 / 20 40 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 57 85 56 87 / 30 30 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 86 57 89 / 20 30 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 58 89 56 93 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 88 66 92 / 20 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 90 63 93 / 20 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 86 61 89 / 20 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 89 63 93 / 20 20 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 63 90 63 94 / 20 20 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 79 51 83 / 20 30 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 87 55 88 / 30 30 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 87 59 90 / 30 40 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 54 79 51 81 / 50 50 30 20
RATON........................... 55 81 52 86 / 40 40 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 79 51 84 / 30 50 30 20
ROY............................. 59 81 59 84 / 40 40 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 61 83 60 88 / 60 60 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 88 60 91 / 30 30 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 87 64 93 / 30 40 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 89 65 91 / 40 30 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 64 85 63 90 / 40 30 20 10
PORTALES........................ 66 88 66 93 / 40 40 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 69 91 69 95 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHY/40
000
FXUS65 KABQ 041729 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK EXPANDING
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AREAL COVERAGE OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW...AND
INCLUDE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND LANGUAGE WITH AFTERNOON ZONE
PACKAGE. UPDATED HWO ON THE WIRE SHORTLY.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009...
SURFACE WIND SHIFT APPARENT ATTM IN FAR NORTHEAST.
CONVECTION HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED...OR IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER KS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL TODAY. NAM/GFS
LEVEL WINDS INDICATED DECENT UPSLOPE INTO NE NM THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ALONG EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. GUIDANCE POPS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH
THIS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A REINFORCEMENT SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...PER SPC...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FAR
NORTHEAST TODAY/TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY.
SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY WON/T MOVE VERY FAR VERY FAST WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN ANYWHERE...SO IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HWO
PRODUCT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO ON SUNDAY...STEERING FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AS UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DRY OUT
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THEREFORE CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ON TUESDAY...IT DOES FINALLY START TO DRY
OUT...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NORMAL OR ABOVE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KROW PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL SLIDE
EAST INTO THE SE PLAINS THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS
THRU MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING CLAYTON AT 09Z WILL
SLIDE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR KTCC AROUND 14Z THEN SET
UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU 21Z. SHOWERS/STORMS WITH CIGS TO
030 AND VSBYS TO 5SM ARE POSSIBLE BY NOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS. LIGHT/MODERATE GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AT KABQ/KSAF AFTER 00Z. MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FIRE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER DARK WITHIN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.
.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF NM THIS MORNING WHERE DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE UPPER 30S
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF NM BY THIS EVENING WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS TEMPORARILY
BACK TO AROUND 50 IN THIS AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THRU SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REBUILD TO THE WEST OF THE STATE SUNDAY
AND CREST OVER NM INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALREADY
ORGANIZING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS INDICATE TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE WEST. MIN RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY IN THIS AREA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD.
RH RECOVERIES WILL STILL BE VERY GOOD ACROSS THE WEST.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH MAY WOBBLE SLIGHTLY EAST
INTO TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING RH INCREASES ONCE AGAIN MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. MODELS ALSO AGREE BY NEXT WEEKEND THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE WEST AGAIN OVER NM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SUPPRESSING
WETTING RAINFALL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHY
000
FXUS65 KABQ 040905
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE WIND SHIFT APPARENT ATTM IN FAR NORTHEAST.
CONVECTION HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED...OR IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER KS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL TODAY. NAM/GFS
LEVEL WINDS INDICATED DECENT UPSLOPE INTO NE NM THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ALONG EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. GUIDANCE POPS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH
THIS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A REINFORCEMENT SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...PER SPC...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FAR
NORTHEAST TODAY/TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY.
SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY WON/T MOVE VERY FAR VERY FAST WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN ANYWHERE...SO IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HWO
PRODUCT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO ON SUNDAY...STEERING FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AS UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA.
THEREAFTER...MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO DRY OUT
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THEREFORE CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ON TUESDAY...IT DOES FINALLY START TO DRY
OUT...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NORMAL OR ABOVE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR KROW PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL SLIDE
EAST INTO THE SE PLAINS THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS
THRU MID MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING CLAYTON AT 09Z WILL
SLIDE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TO NEAR KTCC AROUND 14Z THEN SET
UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU 21Z. SHOWERS/STORMS WITH CIGS TO
030 AND VSBYS TO 5SM ARE POSSIBLE BY NOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS. LIGHT/MODERATE GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AT KABQ/KSAF AFTER 00Z. MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FIRE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER DARK WITHIN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF NM THIS MORNING WHERE DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE UPPER 30S
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF NM BY THIS EVENING WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS TEMPORARILY
BACK TO AROUND 50 IN THIS AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THRU SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REBUILD TO THE WEST OF THE STATE SUNDAY
AND CREST OVER NM INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALREADY
ORGANIZING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS INDICATE TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE WEST. MIN RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY IN THIS AREA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD.
RH RECOVERIES WILL STILL BE VERY GOOD ACROSS THE WEST.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH MAY WOBBLE SLIGHTLY EAST
INTO TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING RH INCREASES ONCE AGAIN MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. MODELS ALSO AGREE BY NEXT WEEKEND THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE WEST AGAIN OVER NM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SUPPRESSING
WETTING RAINFALL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 92 61 93 61 / 20 20 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 86 55 86 55 / 30 30 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 85 55 85 55 / 30 40 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 90 62 93 61 / 30 30 30 20
CHAMA........................... 80 47 80 47 / 30 50 60 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 58 83 55 / 40 50 60 30
RED RIVER....................... 75 44 73 42 / 40 50 60 40
TAOS............................ 82 51 83 49 / 40 40 60 40
SANTA FE........................ 84 57 85 56 / 40 40 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 59 86 57 / 30 40 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 85 58 87 56 / 30 40 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 87 68 88 66 / 30 40 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 88 64 89 63 / 30 40 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 85 64 86 61 / 30 40 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 64 89 63 / 30 40 40 30
SOCORRO......................... 86 63 90 63 / 30 30 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 81 57 82 52 / 40 50 40 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 84 57 87 55 / 40 50 40 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 61 87 59 / 30 40 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 80 54 78 51 / 30 40 40 40
RATON........................... 82 54 82 52 / 50 50 40 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 53 81 51 / 40 50 40 40
ROY............................. 83 59 81 59 / 40 40 40 40
CLAYTON......................... 84 62 84 60 / 40 40 40 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 87 61 87 60 / 30 50 40 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 64 89 64 / 40 50 40 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 92 65 89 64 / 30 50 40 40
CLOVIS.......................... 88 64 86 64 / 40 50 40 40
PORTALES........................ 90 65 87 65 / 30 50 40 40
ROSWELL......................... 90 68 91 69 / 30 50 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 032047
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE PLUME SQUARELY OVER NM THIS PM AND STORMS ARE FIRING MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME GULLY WASHERS. ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH SOME
LATE TONIGHT.
PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS ACTIVE ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DRYING TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE W. BUT A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE S DURING THE DAY
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE NE AND EC AREAS AS A FRESH
BATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONVECTION MAY RAMP UP AGAIN ON SUN AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE BRINGING
A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM OLD MEXICO N INTO AZ SAT THEN TURN IT E
ACROSS NM ON SUN. HAVE BEEFED UP POPS A BIT MORE FOR SUN.
THE RIDGE TO OUR E WILL REORGANIZE ITSELF TO OUR W EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN STRENGTHEN OVER NM DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ESPECIALLY ON MON. CONVECTION WILL BE AT A MINIMUM FROM TUE
THROUGH BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS E AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A
RENEWED SURGE OF MOISTURE POSSIBLE BY FRI OR NEXT WEEKEND. CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE SHORT DURATION MVFR CONDITIONS. THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINALS AFFECTED INCLUDE TCC AND ROW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MVFR
PRODUCING STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS EASTERN PLAINS. ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
TCC AND LVS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO HAS ALREADY MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND GENERALLY FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WEAK TO MODERATE BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH AND WESTWARD ON SATURDAY. A WEAK TO
MODERATE GAP WIND WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO FOCUS THE
LARGER SWATH OF WETTING THUNDERSTORMS THUS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED. DURING THIS SAME
PERIOD THE UPPER HIGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER SHREVEPORT LA WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE WEST. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THIS
HIGH WILL GET RECYCLED OUT IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
THUS...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AS IT CONCERNS
WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
DRIEST STORMS WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE WESTERN US THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THUS...SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO
NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER HIGH BEING...DEPICTED BY THE
LONG RANGE MODELS TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE STATE...BACK DOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSIONS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW A DRIER APPROACH IS BEING TAKEN BUT CONFIDENCE IS
WEAK TO MODERATE BECAUSE OF THE INCONSISTENT MODEL RUNS THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH THE UPPER HIGH POSITION.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 62 92 61 93 / 30 20 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 55 87 55 86 / 40 30 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 53 86 55 86 / 40 30 50 40
GLENWOOD........................ 60 92 62 93 / 40 30 30 30
CHAMA........................... 49 79 47 80 / 40 30 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 84 55 83 / 40 40 40 60
RED RIVER....................... 46 75 43 73 / 40 40 50 60
TAOS............................ 52 84 51 82 / 40 40 40 60
SANTA FE........................ 57 85 57 85 / 40 40 40 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 86 59 86 / 40 30 40 40
ESPANOLA........................ 58 86 58 87 / 30 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 88 66 88 / 40 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 89 64 89 / 40 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 87 63 86 / 40 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 89 64 89 / 40 30 40 40
SOCORRO......................... 65 90 63 90 / 40 30 30 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 84 55 82 / 40 40 40 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 85 56 87 / 30 40 50 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 87 61 87 / 40 30 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 57 80 54 78 / 40 30 40 40
RATON........................... 56 83 54 82 / 40 50 50 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 82 54 80 / 30 40 50 40
ROY............................. 61 87 59 80 / 30 40 40 40
CLAYTON......................... 64 85 61 83 / 30 40 30 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 90 61 87 / 30 30 50 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 90 65 86 / 40 40 50 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 92 65 87 / 30 30 50 40
CLOVIS.......................... 66 88 64 86 / 30 40 50 40
PORTALES........................ 66 91 65 86 / 30 30 50 40
ROSWELL......................... 70 93 69 87 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40/50
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