[top]
000
FXUS65 KVEF 051656 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.UPDATE...MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN LAS VEGAS...KINGMAN AND ESSEX HAVE DECREASED BETWEEN 5 AND
8 TENTHS OF AN INCH. VALUES THIS MORNING RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 4
TENTHS OF AN INCH. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUPPRESSES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM PDT SUN JUL 5...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT
THIS MORNING AS A VERY DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS A BIT. AS A RESULT WE MAY BE LOOKING
AT POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW HOWEVER AS IT
IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AND WILL DROP SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL BUT
THEY WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL. GENERALLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
DRY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST EC RUN DID NOT CARRY OVER THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOIST SE FLOW AS SEEN EARLIER...SO NO CHANGE TO POPS WERE
NEEDED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...MAKING FOR CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
GENERAL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
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000
FXUS65 KLKN 051052
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
352 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...DRYING TREND OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY LIMITED TO ELKO COUNTY. THE AIR OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRY INTO NEXT WEEK...PUTTING AN
END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEXT WEEK. &&
.SHORT TERM...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA HOWEVER FOR AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
WILL BE MORE STABLE TODAY THAN RECENT DAYS...AND AS SUCH...NOT
AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ROTATING OFF THE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST NEXT WEEK. AS THIS LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PAC NW...AN H3 JET WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURFACE WINDS AS
THE WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
ROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE PACIFIC NW UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY...
TIGHTENING THE HEIGHT GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ACROSS NEVADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS ON TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
KEEP AN UPPER LOW PARKED OFF OF THE WA/OR COAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE THE 4-CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH SOME AREAS
WELL INTO THE 90S FOR HIGHS. VERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.25 INCHES. SOME
MOISTURE MAY START TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. &&
.AVIATION...MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE EAST
OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME CBS AT KELY AND
KEKO...BUT TS THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR
THE WHOLE WEEK AS DRY WSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL GREATLY DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE DRY...AND CONFINED TO ZONES 469 AND 470. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AS MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES FALL TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA. &&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
96/88/88
000
FXUS65 KVEF 051045
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
340 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING AS A VERY DRY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS
A BIT. AS A RESULT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY AND
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW HOWEVER AS IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL BUT THEY WILL STILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. GENERALLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
DRY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST EC RUN DID NOT CARRY OVER THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOIST SE FLOW AS SEEN EARLIER...SO NO CHANGE TO POPS WERE
NEEDED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...MAKING FOR CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN GENERAL. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 051040
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
340 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING AS A VERY DRY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FLOW
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS
A BIT. AS A RESULT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY AND
RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW HOWEVER AS IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL BUT THEY WILL STILL BE AROUND
NORMAL. GENERALLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED.
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
DRY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST EC RUN DID NOT CARRY OVER THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF MOIST SE FLOW AS SEEN EARLIER...SO NO CHANGE TO POPS WERE
NEEDED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...MAKING FOR CONTINUED CLEAR CONDITIONS TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN GENERAL. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
[top]
000
FXUS65 KREV 050956
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
256 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC SQUEEZES HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE DESERT SW. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING THE PERIODS WITH THE BEST WIND POTENTIAL HOWEVER THERE WILL
ALSO BE A DIURNAL EFFECT AS WELL.
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH NRN CA LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT REALLY INCREASE UNTIL AFTER PEAK
HEATING WHEN VALLEYS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE. STILL EXPECTING ENOUGH
INCREASE IN GRADIENTS TO BRING GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY IN THE EVENING. WILL KEEP WITH THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE HOWEVER WILL PUSH THE START TIME BACK TO 4
PM AS DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
RIDGES AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH.
UPPER SUPPORT FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS IS NOT AS FAVORABLE MONDAY
HOWEVER LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES ALSO
TREND DOWNWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY
SAGS FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH.
TUESDAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND
A BETTER ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS UPPER WAVE
PASSES DURING PEAK HEATING ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING OF WINDS
ALOFT AND ALSO HAS BETTER JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OF 100+ KTS. THIS
RAISES THE CONCERN FOR BOTH DIFFICULT BOATING ACTIVITY AND
INCREASING FIRE POTENTIAL...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. JORDAN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT AFTER FRIDAY WITH THE
ECMWF BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TURNING
THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE RIDGE IN CHECK...WITH THE FASTER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR PEAK GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WITH LOW TO
VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF A FEW
DEGREES MID WEEK...BUT LIKELY NOT DROP BELOW NORMAL AS MODELS HAVE
RAISED THEIR HEIGHT FORECASTS THE LAST 3 DAYS. BRONG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS...WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE MINIMUM HUMIDITY TO REMAIN AT 5-15% ALL OF THIS
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 40% FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA. ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SMALLER
SIERRA VALLEYS...WHERE HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER TO AT LEAST 60-70%.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PEAK GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH MOST DAYS...PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE/THERMAL
GRADIENTS. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ALONG HIGHWAY 395 FROM SUSANVILLE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH RENO-CARSON TO MAMMOTH LAKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TUESDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF I-80 AND MONO
COUNTY. MAIN CONCERN IS THE SURFACE GRADIENTS...WILL HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE JET STREAM TO BOOST THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CRITICAL WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY FOR ZONES 450 AND
459 LOOKS GOOD. OTHER ZONES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH...BUT
LARGELY DEPENDS ON FUEL DRYNESS. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS WEEK AND PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30KTS 21Z-03Z. PEAK GUSTS OF 25-35KTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF 30-50KT WINDS OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NVZ450-459.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 050343
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
843 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.UPDATE...SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER ALL BUT NORTHERN ESMERALDA AND
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES AS DRY AIR HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE 10-40F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO
OVER THE CWFA. WILL REMOVE THE EVENING POPS FROM LINCOLN AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES...AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE PACKAGE AS IS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
256 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
LINCOLN AND NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTIES THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WHICH WILL
GUARANTEE ALL A BEAUTIFUL EVENING TO CELEBRATE INDEPENDENCE DAY. NO
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUPPRESSES RIDGE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...BROAD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN MODELS IN DEPICTING
THE PATTERN FOR THE LONG RANGE. THE EXTENDED STARTS TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW UNDER A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST. A RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE CENTER VARIOUSLY DEPICTED
IN THE HIGH PLAINS OR NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. NONE DEPICT ANY
MOISTURE LEAKAGE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR AREA AND KEEP WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US. HAVE KEPT THE SILENT POPS BUT MADE THEM EVEN
LOWER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OF LIGHT AT SUNRISE TO NORTHEAST
TO EAST MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS START THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORMON MESA
CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRY AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/PIERCE/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 042203 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
CORRECTED FIRE WX
SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE ARE SEEING A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS RETURNED BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER AIR TO THE REGION FOR A BEAUTIFUL INDEPENDENCE DAY. TYPICAL
AFTERNOON WASHOE ZEPHYR WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...DYING OFF TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FIREWORKS TIME.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE
AREA CLEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO CA/OR
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT
THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN CA AND THE GREAT BASIN...MAKING FOR SOME BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS SUN-TUES. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY
ISSUE TAHOE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY EXPECTING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ONLY TO LAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ON TUES...AS THE JET STREAM MOVES
OVERHEAD...SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...AND ENHANCED PRES/TEMP GRADIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. THIS COULD POSSIBLY
CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN WESTERN NV...SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THE BEST THING ABOUT GETTING THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND IS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL COOL OFF A BIT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMALS
FOR EARLY JULY. HOON
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT (AND BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS) BETWEEN A SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE FLOW WEAKENS AS THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXPANDS WEST AND
BEATS BACK THE NORTHWEST TROUGH. THIS MEANS A SLOW WARM UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. PRECIP-WISE...THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE WITH PERSISTENT...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SNYDER
AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WIND-WISE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A TROUGH REMAINS ALONG AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUING FIRE WX WATCH FOR TUE ZONES 450/459. TROUGH OFF THE COAST
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND IN WAVES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STATE OF FUELS MITIGATING THINGS IN SOME
AREAS BASED ON CALLS TO GACCS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS AND
LOW RH EXPECTED EVERY DAY THROUGH WED...DRYING OF FUELS SHOULD BE
ACCELERATED. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TO POOR
MOST AREAS. A DYNAMIC SITUATION TO BE SURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVERALL...BASED ON CALLS...LOWER ELEVATION FUELS FOR ZONES
450/459 CLOSEST WITH OTHERS A BIT FURTHER BEHIND.
CRITICAL WX CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MET SUN NORTH OF HWY 50 IN THE
DESERT AREAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL. GRADIENT ALOFT
STRENGTHENS SOME...BUT SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE
WHICH IS NORMALLY GOOD FOR LOW-END CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35
MPH. RH WILL ALSO BE LOW FROM 5-15 PCT FROM SE TO NORTHWEST. NOT
ISSUING ANYTHING FOR LOW END EVENT DUE TO FUELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
GACCS.
MONDAY...WINDS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO OREGON AROUND SUNRISE. THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT SFC
CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT...BUT ALOFT PK AT 5 AM. EXPECT 30-35 MPH
GUSTS AGAIN BUT NOW ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH RH 5-15 PCT. AGAIN NO
ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH FUELS SHOULD DRY A BIT MORE...
TUESDAY...JET ALOFT...NEXT SHORT WAVE TO ENTER AREA LATE AFTERNOON
AND ANOTHER AND LIKELY THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS WITH JET
STREAK OVERHEAD AND 500 MB WINDS TO 50 KTS. 12 MB SFC PRES GRADIENT
FROM KSAC-KP68 EXPECTED SO EXPECTED STRONGEST WINDS THIS DAY AND
FOCUSED ALONG HWY 395 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF DOYLE AND INTO MINERAL
COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTS 35-40 MPH IN THESE AREAS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH ELSEWHERE. RH AGAIN LOW...BUT MAINLY I-80 SOUTH WITH 5-10 PCT
MINIMUMS BUT NEAR 20 PCT ALONG OREGON BORDER. WITH FUELS DRIEST IN
450/459 AND STRONGEST WINDS THERE TOO...HAVE HOISTED A WATCH. WIND
PRONE AREAS...ESP ZONE 450 COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NVZ450-459.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 042156
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
LINCOLN AND NORTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTIES THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WHICH WILL
GUARANTEE ALL A BEAUTIFUL EVENING TO CELEBRATE INDEPENDENCE DAY. NO
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SUPPRESSES RIDGE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...BROAD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN MODELS IN DEPICTING
THE PATTERN FOR THE LONG RANGE. THE EXTENDED STARTS TUESDAY WITH
WESTERLY FLOW UNDER A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST. A RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE CENTER VARIOUSLY DEPICTED
IN THE HIGH PLAINS OR NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. NONE DEPICT ANY
MOISTURE LEAKAGE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR AREA AND KEEP WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER US. HAVE KEPT THE SILENT POPS BUT MADE THEM EVEN
LOWER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OF LIGHT AT SUNRISE TO NORTHEAST
TO EAST MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS START THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THERE WILL
STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORMON MESA
CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRY AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR TO FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 042151
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
251 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEVADA. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...LIMITING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RIDGE AXIS WILL BISECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN
GREAT BASIN THIS PERIOD. LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT A VERTICAL
SLICE OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V. KEY
INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. SUNDAY MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES...AND
WILL COMMENCE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY. BY MONDAY EXPECT DRY AND
STABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN NORTH OF NV WITH DRY
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PW/S BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD
FRONTS WILL BRUSH NRN NV THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST ONE
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...AND THE SECOND ONE MOVING ACROSS NRN NV ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE FRONTS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
NRN NV INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGS BELOW
NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AND PUSHING A BIT FURTHER NORTH...ALLOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
TO BUILD ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO
THE 90S LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH STARTS TO NUDGE A BIT FURTHER
WEST BY THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED WITH SW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS ERN NV. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AT KEKO AND KELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A 25 PCT CHC OF
TSTORMS THROUGH 8 PM PDT. TSTORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 KTS. KWMC AND KTPH ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY WITH MOST OF THE TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE
EAST. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY REDEVELOPED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. WESTERN
HUMBOLDT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE THIS EVENING. AS THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNFOLDS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW VALUES OF
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WILL MONITOR ZONE 457 FOR POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/95/95
000
FXUS65 KREV 042145 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE ARE SEEING A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS RETURNED BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER AIR TO THE REGION FOR A BEAUTIFUL INDEPENDENCE DAY. TYPICAL
AFTERNOON WASHOE ZEPHYR WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...DYING OFF TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FIREWORKS TIME.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE
AREA CLEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO CA/OR
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT
THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN CA AND THE GREAT BASIN...MAKING FOR SOME BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS SUN-TUES. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY
ISSUE TAHOE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY EXPECTING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ONLY TO LAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ON TUES...AS THE JET STREAM MOVES
OVERHEAD...SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...AND ENHANCED PRES/TEMP GRADIENTS
COME TOGETHER FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. THIS COULD POSSIBLY
CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN WESTERN NV...SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THE BEST THING ABOUT GETTING THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND IS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL COOL OFF A BIT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMALS
FOR EARLY JULY. HOON
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT (AND BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS) BETWEEN A SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE FLOW WEAKENS AS THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXPANDS WEST AND
BEATS BACK THE NORTHWEST TROUGH. THIS MEANS A SLOW WARM UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. PRECIP-WISE...THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE WITH PERSISTENT...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SNYDER
AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WIND-WISE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A TROUGH REMAINS ALONG AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUING FIRE WX WATCH FOR TUE ZONES 450/459. TROUGH OFF THE COAST
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND IN WAVES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STATE OF FUELS MITIGATING THINGS IN SOME
AREAS BASED ON CALLS TO GACCS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS AND
LOW RH EXPECTED EVERY DAY THROUGH WED...DRYING OF FUELS SHOULD BE
ACCELERATED. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TO POOR
MOST AREAS. A DYNAMIC SITUATION TO BE SURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVERALL...BASED ON CALLS...LOWER ELEVATION FUELS FOR ZONES
450/459 CLOSEST WITH OTHERS A BIT FURTHER BEHIND.
CRITICAL WX CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MET SUN NORTH OF HWY 50 IN THE
DESERT AREAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL. GRADIENT ALOFT
STRENGTHENS SOME...BUT SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE
WHICH IS NORMALLY GOOD FOR LOW-END CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35
MPH. RH WILL ALSO BE LOW FROM 5-15 PCT FROM SE TO NORTHWEST. NOT
ISSUING ANYTHING FOR LOW END EVENT DUE TO FUELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
GACCS.
MONDAY...WINDS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO OREGON AROUND SUNRISE. THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT SFC
CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT...BUT ALOFT PK AT 5 AM. EXPECT 30-35 MPH
GUSTS AGAIN BUT NOW ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH RH 5-15 PCT. AGAIN NO
ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH FUELS SHOULD DRY A BIT MORE...
TUESDAY...JET ALOFT...NEXT SHORT WAVE TO ENTER AREA LATE AFTERNOON
AND ANOTHER AND LIKELY THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS WITH JET
STREAK OVERHEAD AND 500 MB WINDS TO 50 KTS. 12 MB SFC PRES GRADIENT
FROM KSAC-KP68 EXPECTED SO EXPECTED STRONGEST WINDS THIS DAY AND
FOCUSED ALONG HWY 395 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF DOYLE AND INTO MINERAL
COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTS 35-40 MPH IN THESE AREAS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH ELSEWHERE. RH AGAIN LOW...BUT MAINLY I-80 SOUTH OF 5-10 PCT WITH
NEAR 20 PCT MINS. WITH FUELS DRIEST IN 450/459 AND STRONGEST WINDS
THERE TOO...HAVE HOISTED A WATCH. WIND PRONE AREAS...ESP ZONE 450
COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NVZ450-459.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 042128
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
230 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE ARE SEEING A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS RETURNED BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER AIR TO THE REGION FOR A BEAUTIFUL INDEPENDENCE DAY. TYPICAL
AFTERNOON WASHOE ZEPHYR WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...DYING OFF TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FIREWORKS TIME.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE
AREA CLEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO CA/OR
TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT
THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN CA AND THE GREAT BASIN...MAKING FOR SOME BREEZY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS SUN-TUES. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
ON TUES...AS THE JET STREAM MOVES OVERHEAD...SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING...AND ENHANCED PRES/TEMP GRADIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. THIS COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN WESTERN NV...SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.
THE BEST THING ABOUT GETTING THE TROUGH MOVING INLAND IS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL COOL OFF A BIT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMALS
FOR EARLY JULY. HOON
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT (AND BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS) BETWEEN A SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE FLOW WEAKENS AS THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXPANDS WEST AND
BEATS BACK THE NORTHWEST TROUGH. THIS MEANS A SLOW WARM UP TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. PRECIP-WISE...THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE WITH PERSISTENT...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WIND-WISE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A TROUGH REMAINS ALONG AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. SNYDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUING FIRE WX WATCH FOR TUE ZONES 450/459. TROUGH OFF THE COAST
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND IN WAVES DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. AS
SUCH...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STATE OF FUELS MITIGATING THINGS IN SOME
AREAS BASED ON CALLS TO GACCS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS AND
LOW RH EXPECTED EVERY DAY THROUGH WED...DRYING OF FUELS SHOULD BE
ACCELERATED. IN ADDITION...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TO POOR
MOST AREAS. A DYNAMIC SITUATION TO BE SURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVERALL...BASED ON CALLS...LOWER ELEVATION FUELS FOR ZONES
450/459 CLOSEST WITH OTHERS A BIT FURTHER BEHIND.
CRITICAL WX CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MET SUN NORTH OF HWY 50 IN THE
DESERT AREAS...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL. GRADIENT ALOFT
STRENGTHENS SOME...BUT SFC THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE
WHICH IS NORMALLY GOOD FOR LOW-END CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35
MPH. RH WILL ALSO BE LOW FROM 5-15 PCT FROM SE TO NORTHWEST. NOT
ISSUING ANYTHING FOR LOW END EVENT DUE TO FUELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
GACCS.
MONDAY...WINDS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO OREGON AROUND SUNRISE. THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT SFC
CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT...BUT ALOFT PK AT 5 AM. EXPECT 30-35 MPH
GUSTS AGAIN BUT NOW ACROSS ALL AREAS WITH RH 5-15 PCT. AGAIN NO
ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH FUELS SHOULD DRY A BIT MORE...
TUESDAY...JET ALOFT...NEXT SHORT WAVE TO ENTER AREA LATE AFTERNOON
AND ANOTHER AND LIKELY THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS WITH JET
STREAK OVERHEAD AND 500 MB WINDS TO 50 KTS. 12 MB SFC PRES GRADIENT
FROM KSAC-KP68 EXPECTED SO EXPECTED STRONGEST WINDS THIS DAY AND
FOCUSED ALONG HWY 395 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF DOYLE AND INTO MINERAL
COUNTY. EXPECT GUSTS 35-40 MPH IN THESE AREAS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH ELSEWHERE. RH AGAIN LOW...BUT MAINLY I-80 SOUTH OF 5-10 PCT WITH
NEAR 20 PCT MINS. WITH FUELS DRIEST IN 450/459 AND STRONGEST WINDS
THERE TOO...HAVE HOISTED A WATCH. WIND PRONE AREAS...ESP ZONE 450
COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NVZ450-459.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 041644 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
943 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TODAY
RESULTING IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY MOHAVE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ALSO CREATING LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.UPDATE...THANKS TO YESTERDAYS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN CLARK...LINCOLN...MOHAVE AND THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE VALUES
AROUND 1.0 INCH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
STREAMING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MONSOON MOISTURE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING INITIALIZED ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO
RIVER AND EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. NAM CONTINUE
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT
OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA TODAY. 12Z GFS IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND LOOKS
MORE REASONABLE. ANYWAY...STABILITY PARAMETERS POINTING TO BEST AREA
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE IN NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THEN EXTENDING NORTHWEST OVER LINCOLN COUNTY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY EITHER. FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SCOURED OUT THANKS TO
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS FORECASTS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LESS THAN A HALF INCH CWA-WIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SBD
COUNTY AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER ZONES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM PDT SAT JUL 4...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS LINCOLN
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AND MAYBE OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP
RANGE IN CLARK COUNTY. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING
TUESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SITTING ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY
AT THE TERMINAL...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...LIMITING ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTY. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 041100
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
400 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY. WILL SEE A DRYING TREND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH
CONVECTION LIMITED TO NORTHEAST NEVADA. THE AIR OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRY INTO NEXT WEEK PUTTING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. &&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS IS DRYING
OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND SOME
LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE AGAIN TODAY TO TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
CURRENTLY HAVE AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO END OVER THE CWA BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN RESTART BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GFS HAS CAPE OF
NEARLY 1000 J/KG...BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...AND LI/S OF -5.5 OVER
EXTREME NE ELKO COUNTY AT 18Z THIS MORNING. WESTERN HUMBOLDT AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL HAVE MUCH DRIER AIR AS WELL AS A MUCH MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE TODAY THAN ELKO COUNTY. AS SUCH EXPECT MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE OVER ELKO COUNTY...WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN ELKO COUNTY. DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...FURTHER DIMINISHING
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL BE JUST PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS WAVE
ON MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IS
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW...AND THEN A
REBOUNDING 4-CORNERS HIGH LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS WERE IN BEST
AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD...AND NOT AS MUCH TOWARD THE END.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
STRONGER 4-CORNERS HIGH. GENERALLY...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR A DRY
WEEK WITH COOLING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN WARMING FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. &&
.AVIATION...BELIEVE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING TO
THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SUPPORT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
DECREASES. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFFECTING KEKO...AND PERHAPS
KELY. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS TRANSITIONING THUNDERSTORMS FROM WET TO DRY.
WILL SEE A CONTINUED REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS PROGRESSIVELY DRIES AND BECOMES
MORE STABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY AND COMBINE WITH
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS ZONE 457 FOR THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
96/88/88
000
FXUS65 KVEF 041016
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
315 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER TODAY
RESULTING IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY MOHAVE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ALSO CREATING LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA TODAY BUT SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AND MAYBE OVER
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE IN CLARK COUNTY. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING
TUESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SITTING ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL
AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY
AT THE TERMINAL...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...LIMITING ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO NORTHWEST
ARIZONA AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTY. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 041004
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SHORT TERM...
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THE NAM...GFS...UKMET
AND GFS ALL SHOW AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AT 12Z
AND THIS CORRESPONDS WELL WITH WHAT IS SEEN ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. EACH OF THE MODELS ALSO SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN TIER FROM BAJA CALIFORINA TO
FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR
IN OUR WEATHER...OF LACK THEREOF...THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS NOW SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LESS BULLISH IN
STRENGTHENING THE TROUGH AND BRINGING ITS BASE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS AS THEY DID ON PREVIOUS RUNS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO NOW KEEP
THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THE FAST
PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT THEY DEPICT WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TO
THE EAST WITHOUT PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR TO DEEPEN IT.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH. THE TROUGH
WILL STILL PASS THROUGH TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY SO...AS A RESULT...
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMING MORE NWLY WE WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER AFTN HIGHS WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH READINGS NEAR 90 IN WRN NEVADA VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE SIERRA. QUITE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR EARLY
JULY. O`HARA
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY AND STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH TROUGH SITTING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS AGREE THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STATIONARY UNTIL AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LOW TO VERY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. FLOW SLOWLY RELAXES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT ENOUGH FLOW AND
SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENTS FOR BREEZY AFTERNOONS AND GUSTS NEAR 30
MPH.
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF AMPLIFYING THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH. GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS IT MAINTAINS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA KEEPING THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH IN
CHECK. MAIN AFFECT IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS
BUILD...BUT STILL GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH RIDGE AXIS WELL EAST OF
THE AREA. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
TROUGH TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST TODAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY-THURSDAY. WINDS TO INCREASE WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTS 30-35 KTS MOST AREAS...WITH PERIODS OF
30-50KT WINDS OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 040356 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
856 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DRY AND STABILIZE THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEPICTED BOTH IN THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE WAS A BRIEF LIGHTNING STRIKE FROM AN
ISOLATED CELL OVER SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. OTHERWISE ALL THE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY. HOWEVER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES AND
SCATTERED CLOUDS NORTH OF GERLACH SUGGEST AT LEAST A SLIGHT
MENTION OF SHOWERS. POPS WERE REMOVED ELSEWHERE AND SKY COVER
REDUCED FURTHER. ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE
SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NWRN NV THIS AFTERNOON NORTH
OF LOVELOCK-GERLACH LINE AND IN ERN CHURCHILL COUNTY ALTHOUGH MID
LEVEL CAP HAS LIMITED CELL INTENSITY. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NRN
CA WHICH HAS BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER THIS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
EJECT NEWD OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN FAR NWRN NV THRU
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A REMOTE
CHANCE THAT A BRIEF TSTM CELL MAY DEVELOP IN FAR NWRN NV/SURPRISE
VLY NORTH OF CEDARVILLE LATE SAT AFTN AND MOVE QUICKLY NORTH OF
THE OREGON BORDER AS SOME LEFTOVER INSTBY IS INDICATED IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
GENERATE SCT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER PARTS OF MINERAL-MONO
COUNTIES...BUT STRONGER MID LEVEL CAP WILL PREVENT ANY MEANINGFUL
VERTICAL GROWTH FROM THESE CLOUDS.
WINDS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY LATE DAY ZEPHYR
TYPE BREEZES WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH LASTING UNTIL AROUND 10 PM IN
THE RENO-SPARKS-CARSON AREAS BUT DIMINISHING BY DUSK IN THE TAHOE
BASIN. AS TROF APPROACHES THE NWRN US BY SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THRU THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST VALLEYS REACHING
THE 90S...AS COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION UNTIL SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY..BY MONDAY...LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A START TO A COOLING TREND AND ALSO
PRODUCE A FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 40
MPH. MJD
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NOW. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
AND STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL SEE A BIT OF COOLING OFF
TUES-WED AS THE A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. BREEZY TO WINDY AFTN/EVE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THU-SAT. EURO IS SHOWING A BIG
BUBBLE 599 DM HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH VALUES IN THE NEAR 590 DM
OVER CA/NV. THIS COULD MEAN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DIDN`T JUST ON
THE WAGON ALL THE WAY YET...BUT BEGAN TRENDING TEMPS UP AND HUMIDITY
DOWN FOR BIG RIDGE. GFS IS SHOWING A TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
THU-FRI...BUT TEND TO BELIEVE THE STRONGER RIDGE OF THE EC DUE THE
MIDSUMMER TIME FRAME. HOON
FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY ISOLD TSTM EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN/ERN THIRD OF AREA BEFORE
DRYING SW FLOW REALLY TAKES HOLD BY TOMORROW. EXPECT DAYTIME RH TO
DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS SUN IN WRN NV VALLEYS AND NEAR 10 PCT SIERRA
VALLEYS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH A TYPICAL
ZEPHYR THIS EVENING AND SAT WITH AN ENHANCED ZEPHYR FOR SUN AS
POTENT TROUGH MOVES OFF THE PACNW COAST.
NORMALLY...SUN COULD BE A RED FLAG DAY...BUT FUELS ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AFTER CALLS YESTERDAY TO LCL GACCS/FMO-S. RH
CRITERIA WILL BE HIT...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS ONLY PEAKING NEAR 30
MPH SUN...A MARGINAL EVENT...WILL LET IT GO GIVEN FUELS.
HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON AND TUE WITH RH AGAIN
5-10%. ATTM...ONE OF THE TWO DAYS WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS
CLOSE TO 40 MPH AND WITH SUCH A POTENTIALLY STG EVENT...THE MARGINAL
FUELS ARE A BIT LESS OF A FACTOR. GFS SHOWS MON BEING THE STRONGEST
AND EC TUE THE STRONGEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT GO WITH A
WATCH YET FOR MON...AND JUST KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. FOR FIRE
MANAGERS OUT THERE WE HAVE NOT SPOKEN TO...WE WOULD APPRECIATE ANY
INPUT YOU HAVE ON CURRENT STATE OF FUELS IN YOUR AREA ESP IF OUR
CURRENT THINKING ABOVE CONCERNS YOU. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 040353
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
853 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. A
DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND
ALSO CREATING LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.UPDATE...ANOTHER BUSY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE
ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN CWFA. GRIDS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH 06Z...BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS A BIT IN
THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING STORMS. WILL TRY TO
GET AN UPDATE OUT BY 10 PM...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER
THE ONGOING STORMS BEHAVE THEMSELVES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
333 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...DRIER AIR HAS CONTINUED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH GOES SOUNDERS AND DERIVED PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN A TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN HAS DECLINED. WITH THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA IT HAS BEEN DRY AND RELATIVELY
CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST FROM A LINE FROM THE LINCOLN-NYE BORDER
SOUTH TO NEAR ESSEX AND POINTS EAST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINS AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION DEVELOP TODAY.
OTHER THAN THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD DEVELOP THERE IS NOTHING REALLY TO DRIVE
CONVECTION PAST THIS EVENING SO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO QUIET DOWN AFTER
SUNSET. THE MAIN HAZARDS IN STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY...HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA GETS EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
NORCAL TONIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP TO TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY USHERING IN EVEN FURTHER DRYING TO THE
CWFA. PWATS DROP BELOW THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL WITH LI/S BETWEEN -1 AND +2 ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL FURTHER
HELP TO STABILIZE THINGS. OVERALL THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP A THUNDERSTORM IN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES SO HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE. PAST EXPERIENCES
HAVE SHOWN THAT EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL THESE AREAS TEND
TO BE HOLD OUTS FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT
CONVECTION. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...WARMING ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS
BECOMING MORE DRY ADIABATIC...HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND
NORMAL FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES.
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR FURTHER WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
FURTHER DRYING WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. BY MONDAY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS DRIVE AN UPPER LOW INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THIS WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS
STILL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN AS WARM AS
THEY ARE ON SUNDAY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON
MAY MIX THINGS A LITTLE BETTER.
.LONG TERM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY SINCE
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MODEL FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. MODELS FORECAST A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACNW COAST WHICH WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS POINT HAVE REMAINED
WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE VALLEY BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CLOUDS TO GENERALLY BE SCT AOA 8K FT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE PEACH SPRING CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
THE MORMON MESA CORRIDOR UNTIL 03Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
8 KTS TURNING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC NEAR ANY SHOWERS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY EAST OF A NORTH/SOUTH LINE
FROM RACHEL NEVADA TO ESSEX CALIFORNIA THROUGH 03Z. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN AOA 8K FT EAST AND CENTRAL AND AOA 12KFT WEST.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KTS AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD
GUST TO OVER 40KTS NEAR STORMS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI/SALMEN
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 032255
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
355 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUNDAY SEEING A
DRYING TREND...WITH CONVECTION LIMITED TO NORTHEAST NEVADA.
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE EVENING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
DIMINISHING OR ENDING BEFORE SUNSET.
LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AT 500MB LARGE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHILE FLOW OVER THE FCST AREA
TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A LARGE TROF WELL OFF THE WEST
COAST. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE SATURDAY...BUT
WITH PW`S FALLING TO 0.50 INCHES WEST AND 0.75 EAST AND NORTH.
THE TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH CONVECTION LIMITED PRIMARILY
TO EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. A 75KT JET MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT BOTH DAYS. REA
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS EACH DAY. A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS REMAIN LOW...MAINLY LESS THAN 0.30".
&&
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NV THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE STORMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
COVERAGE AND PERHAPS STAYING NORTH OF ZONE 457. SUNDAY WILL SEE A
CONTINUING DRYING TREND...WITH CONVECTION LIMITED MAINLY TO ZONES
469 AND 470...BUT POSSIBLY EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN 454 AND
NORTHERN 455. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RH`S AND INCREASINGLY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
TROF OFF THE WEST COAST.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
90/99/99
000
FXUS65 KREV 032235
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
335 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NWRN NV THIS AFTERNOON NORTH
OF LOVELOCK-GERLACH LINE ADN IN ERN CHURCHILL COUNTY ALTHOUGH MID
LEVEL CAP HAS LIMITED CELL INTENSITY. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NRN
CA WHICH HAS BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER THIS CONVECTION WILL FINALLY
EJECT NEWD OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE IN FAR NWRN NV THRU
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A REMOTE
CHANCE THAT A BRIEF TSTM CELL MAY DEVELOP IN FAR NWRN NV/SURPRISE
VLY NORTH OF CEDARVILLE LATE SAT AFTN AND MOVE QUICKLY NORTH OF
THE OREGON BORDER AS SOME LEFTOVER INSTBY IS INDICATED IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
GENERATE SCT CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER PARTS OF MINERAL-MONO
COUNTIES...BUT STRONGER MID LEVEL CAP WILL PREVENT ANY MEANINGFUL
VERTICAL GROWTH FROM THESE CLOUDS.
WINDS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY LATE DAY ZEPHYR
TYPE BREEZES WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH LASTING UNTIL AROUND 10 PM IN
THE RENO-SPARKS-CARSON AREAS BUT DIMINISHING BY DUSK IN THE TAHOE
BASIN. AS TROF APPROACHES THE NWRN US BY SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THRU THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST VALLEYS REACHING
THE 90S...AS COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION UNTIL SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY..BY MONDAY...LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A START TO A COOLING TREND AND ALSO
PRODUCE A FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 40
MPH. MJD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NOW. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
AND STABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL SEE A BIT OF COOLING OFF
TUES-WED AS THE A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. BREEZY TO WINDY AFTN/EVE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE AND BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THU-SAT. EURO IS SHOWING A BIG
BUBBLE 599 DM HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH VALUES IN THE NEAR 590 DM
OVER CA/NV. THIS COULD MEAN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DIDN`T JUST ON
THE WAGON ALL THE WAY YET...BUT BEGAN TRENDING TEMPS UP AND HUMIDITY
DOWN FOR BIG RIDGE. GFS IS SHOWING A TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
THU-FRI...BUT TEND TO BELIEVE THE STRONGER RIDGE OF THE EC DUE THE
MIDSUMMER TIMEFRAME. HOON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY ISOLD TSTM EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN/ERN THIRD OF AREA BEFORE
DRYING SW FLOW REALLY TAKES HOLD BY TOMORROW. EXPECT DAYTIME RH TO
DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS SUN IN WRN NV VALLEYS AND NEAR 10 PCT SIERRA
VALLEYS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH A TYPICAL
ZEPHYR THIS EVENING AND SAT WITH AN ENHANCED ZEPHYR FOR SUN AS
POTENT TROUGH MOVES OFF THE PACNW COAST.
NORMALLY...SUN COULD BE A RED FLAG DAY...BUT FUELS ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AFTER CALLS YESTERDAY TO LCL GACCS/FMO-S. RH
CRITERIA WILL BE HIT...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS ONLY PEAKING NEAR 30
MPH SUN...A MARGINAL EVENT...WILL LET IT GO GIVEN FUELS.
HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON AND TUE WITH RH AGAIN
5-10%. ATTM...ONE OF THE TWO DAYS WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS
CLOSE TO 40 MPH AND WITH SUCH A POTENTIALLY STG EVENT...THE MARGINAL
FUELS ARE A BIT LESS OF A FACTOR. GFS SHOWS MON BEING THE STRONGEST
AND EC TUE THE STRONGEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT GO WITH A
WATCH YET FOR MON...AND JUST KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. FOR FIRE
MANAGERS OUT THERE WE HAVE NOT SPOKEN TO...WE WOULD APPRECIATE ANY
INPUT YOU HAVE ON CURRENT STATE OF FUELS IN YOUR AREA ESP IF OUR
CURRENT THINKING ABOVE CONCERNS YOU. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 032233
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
333 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL RESULT IN JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL THEN
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO CREATING LOCALLY BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...DRIER AIR HAS CONTINUED TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH GOES SOUNDERS AND DERIVED PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN A TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN HAS DECLINED. WITH THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA IT HAS BEEN DRY AND RELATIVELY
CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST FROM A LINE FROM THE LINCOLN-NYE BORDER
SOUTH TO NEAR ESSEX AND POINTS EAST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINS AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION DEVELOP TODAY.
OTHER THAN THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD DEVELOP THERE IS NOTHING REALLY TO DRIVE
CONVECTION PAST THIS EVENING SO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO QUIET DOWN AFTER
SUNSET. THE MAIN HAZARDS IN STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY...HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA GETS EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO
NORCAL TONIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP TO TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY USHERING IN EVEN FURTHER DRYING TO THE
CWFA. PWATS DROP BELOW THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL WITH LI/S BETWEEN -1 AND +2 ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING IN WARMING ALOFT WHICH WILL FURTHER
HELP TO STABILIZE THINGS. OVERALL THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO POP A THUNDERSTORM IN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES SO HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE. PAST EXPERIENCES
HAVE SHOWN THAT EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL THESE AREAS TEND
TO BE HOLD OUTS FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DISCOUNT
CONVECTION. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...WARMING ALOFT AND THE AIR MASS
BECOMING MORE DRY ADIABATIC...HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO AROUND
NORMAL FOR 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES.
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR FURTHER WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
FURTHER DRYING WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. BY MONDAY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS DRIVE AN UPPER LOW INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THIS WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS
STILL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AS TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN AS WARM AS
THEY ARE ON SUNDAY AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON
MAY MIX THINGS A LITTLE BETTER.
.LONG TERM...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE GRIDS TODAY SINCE
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MODEL FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. MODELS FORECAST A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACNW COAST WHICH WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS POINT HAVE REMAINED
WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE VALLEY BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CLOUDS TO GENERALLY BE SCT AOA 8K FT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE PEACH SPRING CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
THE MORMON MESA CORRIDOR UNTIL 03Z. LIGHT EAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER
8 KTS TURNING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC NEAR ANY SHOWERS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY TO CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY EAST OF A NORTH/SOUTH LINE
FROM RACHEL NEVADA TO ESSEX CALIFORNIA THROUGH 03Z. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN AOA 8K FT EAST AND CENTRAL AND AOA 12KFT WEST.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KTS AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD
GUST TO OVER 40KTS NEAR STORMS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
STACHELSKI/SALMEN
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 031716
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1016 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS SLID EASTWARD INTO THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT. BASED ON SOUNDINGS
AND GOES SENSORS THE 1 INCH PWAT LINE WAS PROBABLY EXTENDING FROM
THE NYE-LINCOLN BORDER SOUTH TO CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WERE A FEW DISTURBANCES AROUND TO
TRIGGER ACTIVITY AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT ALSO SERVED AS A FOCUS
IT LOOKS LIKE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE HEATING
OF THE DAY AND TERRAIN. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TO BE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND LINCOLN COUNTY AS WELL AS THE FAR
EASTERN PART OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND MOST OF CLARK COUNTY.
RADAR WAS ALREADY INDICATING A FEW CELLS POPPING UP IN SOUTHEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY AND EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASE IN
THE EASTERN CWFA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AND DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
EAST OF KLAS TODAY BUT ALSO FORMING OVER THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS BY 20Z
AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY. CLOUDS TO GENERALLY BE SCT
AOA 8K FT WITH BKN LAYERS AOA 12K FT AS THUNDERSTORMS FORM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE PEACH SPRING AND
MORMON MESA CORRIDORS MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z FRIDAY AND 03Z SATURDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINAL THEN BECOMING EAST AROUND 8-10KTS AFTER
20Z...THEN SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY
SHOWERS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY EAST OF
KLAS...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF A
NORTH/SOUTH LINE FROM RACHEL NEVADA TO ESSEX CALIFORNIA THROUGH 03Z
SATURDAY. CLOUDS TO GENERALLY BE SCT AOA 8K FT WITH BKN CLOUDS AOA
12K FT AFT 20Z AS THUNDERSTORMS FORM. WEST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
LINE TO BE FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
12KTS AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GUSTS TO OVER 40KTS POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 510 AM FRI JUL 3 2009/...
.UPDATE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOHAVE COUNTY ARIZONA WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING...CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
ELSEWHERE. WILL UPDATE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LESS CLOUD TO START
THE DAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009/...
.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER/HIGHER TERRAIN TO
PRODUCE GOOD LIFT. EXPECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA DURING THE DAY AS BEST DYNAMICS CONTINUE MAINLY TO THE EAST OF A
NORTH/SOUTH LINE FROM RACHEL NEVADA TO ESSEX CALIFORNIA. TO THE WEST
OF THIS LINE A SLOW DRYING WILL BE SEEN DURING THE DAY WITH MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS MOVING OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...
TODAYS CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. HOWEVER...AREAL EXTEND OF THE
ACTIVITY DOES NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING THE
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS WILL BE TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN
AND MOHAVE COUNTY. FURTHER DRYING ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PUSHING THE MOISTURE/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LOW OFF THE PACNW COAST IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ON
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN COOLING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...LOCAL
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
TROUGH DEEPENS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STACHELSKI
AVIATION...SALMEN
PREVIOUS...JENSEN/GORELOW
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
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