000
FXUS61 KBGM 051704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER THEN SATURDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE ITS WAY OVER
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN
NORMAL FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH ON MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ABOUT 150 JOULES. THE NAM HOWEVER HAS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1200 JOULES OVER THE CWA. LIS ARE NEGATIVE ON BOTH
MODELS. THE STRONGEST PVA IS SHOWN BY THE NAM TO BE OVER ALBANYS
CWA...WITH WEAK AREAS OVER BGM CWA. GIVEN THIS...HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`LL KEEP IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. SOME IMPROVEMENT STILL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS
THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR STILL EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS IT`S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

.TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KALY 051442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST NEEDED...IF ANY. LOTS OF SUN...AND
GREAT MIXING. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A LITTLE
COOL...BUT WITH THE MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD GET CLOSE IF
NOT REACH CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES. WIDNS WILL BE A LITTLE
GUSTY IN SOME PLACES...BUT OVERALL...JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
FORECAST IF ANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY WITH A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
HAIL TO BE SMALL. BEING THAT WE ARE NOW A DAY CLOSER IN TIME HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE
MENTION IN HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15
KTS...H5 WINDS ONLY 25-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA
IN WRONG QUAD (LR) OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW
80S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AS SURFACE TROF SWINGS THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MAYBE MORE CONFINED TO
EASTERN HALF OF FA. ONCE AGAIN HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS THIS IS DAY 3. H5 TEMPS ARE STILL
VERY COLD TUE AFT -15 TO -19 C. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUE TO BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO CAA. HIGHS
TUE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD HILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF TUE EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500 HPA CUTOFF LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...MAKING WAY FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS 75 TO 80. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY MAKING WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AND PLEASANT...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SOMEWHAT COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 50S. AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...THE EURO FEATURES A VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS FEATURES A
CUTOFF LOW. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW...AND THE BEST SHOT
IS A CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS SOME RADIATION FOG AT KGFL LAST NIGHT WHICH HAS SINCE
MIXED OUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE AND
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THERE WAS AN AREA OF CLOUDS EAST OF
ALBANY THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN VERMONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND DIMINISH SOME IN AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU POPPING UP
AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE IN THE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AND SCT250 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO
60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY ENDED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
AND THE WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY TODAY...WHICH WILL LET
THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE
GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 051353
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
953 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...GORGEOUS DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS OUR REGION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE AND ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR
WIND AND TEMPS...DROPPED BUF A FEW DEG DUE TO SW WIND...BUT ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE M-U 70S UNDER NEAR FULL SUN AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...JUST CANT GET ANY BETTER THAN THIS.

DID MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT`S PERIOD. VERY SUBTLE
FEATURE...A MID LEVEL JET...EVIDENT ON WV LOOP OVER WISC AT MID
MORNING...HAS SET OFF SOME CONVECTION IN ITS EXIT REGION UP BY
TRAVERSE BAY IN MICH. THIS FEATURE WAS DROPPING ESE AND WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR IMPACT ON NIAG FRONTIER BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING. DID INSERT 20 POPS FOR THAT FEATURE FOR NOW...STARTING AT
ABOUT 02Z...BUT WILL REVISIT IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER NEW GUID
IS RECEIVED. EARLIER AFD FOLLOWS...

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SUPPLY OF CLOSED 500MB LOWS WILL
SETTLE IN NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE ON MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
VORT MAX AND COOLER SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE GIVES
NOTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIP TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVERGENCE
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG THIS
STATIONARY FRONT...AND AFFECTING ONLY THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS UP TO ABOUT
THE ROUTE 20A LINE. THE END OF THE WEEK MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW REVISITS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND AFFECTS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WILL BRING DRY VFR
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS
THE REGION. WESTERLIES WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY OVER LAKE
ERIE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...BUT LAKE ONTARIO`S WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 4TH`S MAX TEMP OF 69 AT BUFFALO MADE IT THE 6TH COOLEST
HOLIDAY IN THE 67 YRS OF HISTORY AT THE BUFFALO AIRPORT. NORMAL IS
79. ROCHESTER`S OVERNIGHT LOW THIS MORNING OF 48 MISSED ITS RECORD
(47/1997) BY JUST ONE DEGREE. BUF`S 50 MISSED BY THREE (47/1961).

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...WCH
CLIMATE...SFM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 051350
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY WILL DIG INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
NYC/LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...KEEPING THE REGION DRY.

DRY DAY TODAY WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CU. BACKING
FLOW AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST LOOK FINE BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT FOR FAR OUTLYING AREAS WITH WEAK GRADIENT...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S. 60S IN URBAN CENTERS AND
SURROUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST SLOWLY SLIDES SE INTO NORTHERN
NY/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THRU TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE REGION.

BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL NW OF THE REGION ON
MON...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO SET OFF
SOME LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR NW ZONES. MOISTURE AND THEREFORE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WEAK.

INCREASED COLD POOL INSTABILITY...AN APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK
AND A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE TUES AFT INTO
TUES EVE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH STRONG LEVELS. BASED ON FREEZING
LEVELS AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE
MAIN THREATS IN STRONGER CONVECTION.

WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH
DAYS.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR SEASONABLE...LOWER
80S CITY/INTERIOR AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY WITH A
SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES TODAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS...
THOUGH WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE INITIALLY IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONGER THAN USUAL TO TRANSITION TO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY SYSTEM OF IMPORTANCE IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUE...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE TSTMS AND ALSO BUILD OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA VIA INCREASING S-SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH FORECAST SEAS OF
5 FT AT THAT TIME ARE A BIT HIGH GIVEN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 KT...AND CLIPPED MAX SEAS AT 4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON...AND MORE SO TUES COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LIMITED
BASED ON PWATS AND SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV/PW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KBGM 051153
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER THEN SATURDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE ITS WAY OVER
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN
NORMAL FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH ON MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ABOUT 150 JOULES. THE NAM HOWEVER HAS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1200 JOULES OVER THE CWA. LIS ARE NEGATIVE ON BOTH
MODELS. THE STRONGEST PVA IS SHOWN BY THE NAM TO BE OVER ALBANYS
CWA...WITH WEAK AREAS OVER BGM CWA. GIVEN THIS...HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
KELM...WHERE SOME IFR FOG IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ

000
FXUS61 KBTV 051152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WHICH HAS STUCK AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA WAY WAY TOO LONG IS FINALLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
SUNDAY. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY...
WHERE SUN BROKE THROUGH THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AND WITH NOT MUCH AIRMASS CHANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...FELLING IS THAT MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COULD BE GUSTY
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT SUNDAY...REPRIEVE FROM WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING 500HPA LOW FORMING OFF THE TIP OF
JAMES BAY WILL LOOK TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND INTO THE
EXTENDED. MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LOW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAS BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...AND LOCAL 4KM WRF WHICH IS USUALLY VERY GOOD
WITH INDICATING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGREES WHICH BRINGS
INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...AND WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...COLD POOL ALOFT
AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES OF AROUND 8KFT WILL PROVIDE THE THREAT
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE MENTIONED
THIS IN THE FORECAST. HARD TO TELL IF UPDRAFTS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SEVERE SIZE HAIL...AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH MAY MEAN HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE A THREAT AS WELL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WE GO INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH THE CLOSED 500HPA LOW DROPPING DOWN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FEEL THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SCATTERED BUT
ONGOING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE IN THE NEK THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT. A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION APPEARS A BIT
DELAYED VS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE TRENDED DOWN THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BR AND FG DEVELOPING
AFTER 08Z MONDAY IN PRONE SPOTS LIKE SLK AND MPV AS WE
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE 15Z THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
ABOUT 20 KTS OUT OF THE W/NW...THEN DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY
MVFR AND IFR FOG IN PRONE LOCATONS SUCH AS MPV AND SLK THROUGH
12Z. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP CAUSING
LOCAL MVFR IFR CONDITIONS. SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KBUF 051139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
PROVIDE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH AN IDEAL DAY TODAY. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS RAPID
CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE UPSTREAM STARTING LATER TONIGHT IN THE
FORM OF YET ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES COULD
SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SUPPLY OF CLOSED 500MB LOWS WILL
SETTLE IN NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE ON MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
VORT MAX AND COOLER SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE GIVES
NOTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIP TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVERGENCE
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG THIS
STATIONARY FRONT...AND AFFECTING ONLY THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS UP TO ABOUT
THE ROUTE 20A LINE. THE END OF THE WEEK MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW REVISITS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND AFFECTS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WILL BRING DRY VFR
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS
THE REGION. WESTERLIES WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY OVER LAKE
ERIE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...BUT LAKE ONTARIO`S WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...WCH

000
FXUS61 KALY 051110
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA IN MANY
DAYS. AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS
FA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE
DAY...CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
EITHER VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY WITH A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
HAIL TO BE SMALL. BEING THAT WE ARE NOW A DAY CLOSER IN TIME HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE
MENTION IN HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15
KTS...H5 WINDS ONLY 25-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA
IN WRONG QUAD (LR) OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW
80S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AS SURFACE TROF SWINGS THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MAYBE MORE CONFINED TO
EASTERN HALF OF FA. ONCE AGAIN HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS THIS IS DAY 3. H5 TEMPS ARE STILL
VERY COLD TUE AFT -15 TO -19 C. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUE TO BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO CAA. HIGHS
TUE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD HILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF TUE EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500 HPA CUTOFF LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...MAKING WAY FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS 75 TO 80. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY MAKING WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AND PLEASANT...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SOMEWHAT COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 50S. AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...THE EURO FEATURES A VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS FEATURES A
CUTOFF LOW. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW...AND THE BEST SHOT
IS A CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS SOME RADIATION FOG AT KGFL LAST NIGHT WHICH HAS SINCE
MIXED OUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE AND
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THERE WAS AN AREA OF CLOUDS EAST OF
ALBANY THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN VERMONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND DIMINISH SOME IN AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU POPPING UP
AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE IN THE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AND SCT250 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO
60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY ENDED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
AND THE WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY TODAY...WHICH WILL LET
THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE
GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 051053
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA IN MANY DAYS.
AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE
DAY...CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EITHER VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY WITH A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
HAIL TO BE SMALL. BEING THAT WE ARE NOW A DAY CLOSER IN TIME HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE
MENTION IN HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15
KTS...H5 WINDS ONLY 25-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA
IN WRONG QUAD (LR) OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW
80S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AS SURFACE TROF SWINGS THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MAYBE MORE CONFINED TO
EASTERN HALF OF FA. ONCE AGAIN HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS THIS IS DAY 3. H5 TEMPS ARE STILL
VERY COLD TUE AFT -15 TO -19 C. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUE TO BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO CAA. HIGHS
TUE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD HILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF TUE EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500 HPA CUTOFF LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...MAKING WAY FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS 75 TO 80. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY MAKING WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AND PLEASANT...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SOMEWHAT COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 50S. AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...THE EURO FEATURES A VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS FEATURES A
CUTOFF LOW. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW...AND THE BEST SHOT
IS A CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS SOME RADIATION FOG AT KGFL LAST NIGHT WHICH HAS SINCE
MIXED OUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE AND
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THERE WAS AN AREA OF CLOUDS EAST OF
ALBANY THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN VERMONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND DIMINISH SOME IN AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU POPPING UP
AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE IN THE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AND SCT250 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...RECOVER
TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY ENDED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
AND THE WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY TODAY...WHICH WILL LET
THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE
GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 050926
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
526 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA IN MANY DAYS.
AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE
DAY...CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EITHER VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY WITH A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
HAIL TO BE SMALL. BEING THAT WE ARE NOW A DAY CLOSER IN TIME HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE
MENTION IN HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15
KTS...H5 WINDS ONLY 25-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA
IN WRONG QUAD (LR) OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW
80S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AS SURFACE TROF SWINGS THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MAYBE MORE CONFINED TO
EASTERN HALF OF FA. ONCE AGAIN HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS THIS IS DAY 3. H5 TEMPS ARE STILL
VERY COLD TUE AFT -15 TO -19 C. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUE TO BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO CAA. HIGHS
TUE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD HILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF TUE EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500 HPA CUTOFF LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...MAKING WAY FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS 75 TO 80. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY MAKING WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AND PLEASANT...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SOMEWHAT COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 50S. AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...THE EURO FEATURES A VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS FEATURES A
CUTOFF LOW. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW...AND THE BEST SHOT
IS A CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RADIATION FOG ISSUES HAVE MATERIALIZED IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
WITH THE VISIBILITY AT KGFL WAVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES IN
FOG. THAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 12Z. KPOU IS ALSO
A BIT COMPLICATED...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT WERE THE SAME
AT 08Z BUT VISIBILITY WAS STILL 10 MILES. SATELLITE IMAGES AND NEARBY
AUGMENTED ASOS OBS INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE AREA
AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. WE HAVE THEREFORE FORECAST MVFR BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 08Z AND AROUND SUNRISE. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND SHOULD
KEEP KALB VFR THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD BURN
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE WITH A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR VFR FLIGHT
AND PHOTOGRAPHY. WE HAVE FORECAST FEW050 TO REFLECT SOME FAIR WX CU
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO POP UP MIDDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO
15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND SCT250 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...RECOVER
TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY ENDED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
AND THE WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY TODAY...WHICH WILL LET
THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE
GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050840
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WHICH HAS STUCK AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA WAY WAY TOO LONG IS FINALLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
SUNDAY. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY...
WHERE SUN BROKE THROUGH THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AND WITH NOT MUCH AIRMASS CHANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...FELLING IS THAT MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COULD BE GUSTY
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT SUNDAY...REPRIEVE FROM WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING 500HPA LOW FORMING OFF THE TIP OF
JAMES BAY WILL LOOK TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND INTO THE
EXTENDED. MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LOW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAS BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...AND LOCAL 4KM WRF WHICH IS USUALLY VERY GOOD
WITH INDICATING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGREES WHICH BRINGS
INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...AND WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...COLD POOL ALOFT
AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES OF AROUND 8KFT WILL PROVIDE THE THREAT
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE MENTIONED
THIS IN THE FORECAST. HARD TO TELL IF UPDRAFTS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SEVERE SIZE HAIL...AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH MAY MEAN HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE A THREAT AS WELL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WE GO INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH THE CLOSED 500HPA LOW DROPPING DOWN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FEEL THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SCATTERED BUT
ONGOING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION
TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE IN THE NEK THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT. A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION APPEARS A BIT
DELAYED VS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE TRENDED DOWN THE
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS DUE TO BR POSSIBLE
AT KSLK BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z SUN. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
15Z WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20KTS OUT OF THE W/NW...THEN DIMINISH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING LOCAL MVFR IFR CONDITIONS. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS...CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN NORTHEAST VT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KBGM 050839
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
AWAY FROM THE AREA UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT WARMER THEN SATURDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE ITS WAY OVER
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN
NORMAL FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH ON MONDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ABOUT 150 JOULES. THE NAM HOWEVER HAS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1200 JOULES OVER THE CWA. LIS ARE NEGATIVE ON BOTH
MODELS. THE STRONGEST PVA IS SHOWN BY THE NAM TO BE OVER ALBANYS
CWA...WITH WEAK AREAS OVER BGM CWA. GIVEN THIS...HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO MON. FCST AREA IS STILL UNDER A LRG
ERN TROF...BUT SFC RDGG AND NW FLOW WILL HELP KEEP DRIER AIR IN
THE AREA. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT THE FORMATION OF
FOG...SO ONLY BRIEF PATCHES ARE XPTD IN THE DEEPEST VLYS. WITH
MIXING DAYTIME WIND WILL BECOME NW AGAIN TODAY...AT ARND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG...PRIMARILY AT KELM.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KBUF 050730
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...PROVIDING WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
PROVIDE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH AN IDEAL DAY TODAY. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS RAPID
CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE UPSTREAM STARTING LATER TONIGHT IN THE
FORM OF YET ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES COULD
SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SUPPLY OF CLOSED 500MB LOWS WILL
SETTLE IN NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW
CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THE MORNING AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE ON MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
VORT MAX AND COOLER SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ALL GUIDANCE GIVES
NOTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIP TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVERGENCE
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG THIS
STATIONARY FRONT...AND AFFECTING ONLY THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH ON THURSDAY...BUT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS UP TO ABOUT
THE ROUTE 20A LINE. THE END OF THE WEEK MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW REVISITS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND AFFECTS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WILL BRING DRY VFR
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS
THE REGION. WESTERLIES WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY OVER LAKE
ERIE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH...BUT LAKE ONTARIO`S WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...WCH

000
FXUS61 KOKX 050730
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY WILL DIG INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
NYC/LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...KEEPING THE REGION DRY.

DRY DAY TODAY WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND AFT CU. BACKING FLOW AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT FOR FAR OUTLYING AREAS WITH WEAK GRADIENT...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S. 60S IN URBAN CENTERS AND
SURROUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST SLOWLY SLIDES SE INTO NORTHERN
NY/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THRU TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE REGION.

BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL NW OF THE REGION ON
MON...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO SET OFF
SOME LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR NW ZONES. MOISTURE AND THEREFORE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WEAK.

INCREASED COLD POOL INSTABILITY...AN APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK
AND A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE TUES AFT INTO
TUES EVE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH STRONG LEVELS. BASED ON FREEZING
LEVELS AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE
MAIN THREATS IN STRONGER CONVECTION.

WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH
DAYS.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR SEASONABLE...LOWER
80S CITY/INTERIOR AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY WITH A
SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES TODAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS...
THOUGH WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE INITIALLY IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONGER THAN USUAL TO TRANSITION TO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY SYSTEM OF IMPORTANCE IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUE...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE TSTMS AND ALSO BUILD OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA VIA INCREASING S-SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH FORECAST SEAS OF
5 FT AT THAT TIME ARE A BIT HIGH GIVEN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 KT...AND CLIPPED MAX SEAS AT 4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON...AND MORE SO TUES COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LIMITED
BASED ON PWATS AND SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KBUF 050721
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT
QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
PROVIDE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH AN IDEAL DAY TODAY. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS RAPID
CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE UPSTREAM STARTING LATER TONIGHT IN THE
FORM OF YET ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES COULD
SNEAK INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE READILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE SHEARED VORTICITY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FORM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF.
THIS CUTOFF WILL LIKELY STAY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA...MERGES WITH THE CUTOFF.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER UNSTABLE YET DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CLASSIC INVERTED V SIGNATURE...YET
NOT AS UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH A BIT MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THEREFORE
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BY BOTH DAYS...AT LEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WILL
INTRODUCE A THREAT OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE AND HENCE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
OVERALL.  AM TEMPTED TO BUMP UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MOVE UP ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT FROM
CONTINUITY FOR MON/TUES...TO NEAR 40-50 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...A WARM
RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A MORE
PRONOUNCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WELCOME RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
80F MARK. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD
DRY...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR FRIDAY AND WITH A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WILL BRING DRY VFR
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS/WAVES CONTINUING TO DECREASE...HAVE DROPPED THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TEND MUCH LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
FRESHENING UP A BIT AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THOUGH SUNDAY`S WINDS WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG GIVEN THE RIDGING THAT WILL WILL BE IN
PLACE. NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING CONDITIONS
CLOSE TO CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...JJR/SFM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050714
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WHICH HAS STUCK AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA WAY WAY TOO LONG IS FINALLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
SUNDAY. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY...
WHERE SUN BROKE THROUGH THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AND WITH NOT MUCH AIRMASS CHANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...FELLING IS THAT MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COULD BE GUSTY
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GENERALLY NO HIGHER THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EDT SUNDAY...REPRIEVE FROM WET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING 500HPA LOW FORMING OFF THE TIP OF
JAMES BAY WILL LOOK TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND INTO THE
EXTENDED. MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LOW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAS BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...AND LOCAL 4KM WRF WHICH IS USUALLY VERY GOOD
WITH INDICATING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGREES WHICH BRINGS
INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...AND WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 50S...SURFACE BASED CAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...COLD POOL ALOFT
AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES OF AROUND 8KFT WILL PROVIDE THE THREAT
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...SO HAVE MENTIONED
THIS IN THE FORECAST. HARD TO TELL IF UPDRAFTS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SEVERE SIZE HAIL...AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH MAY MEAN HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE A THREAT AS WELL. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER
OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS WE GO INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH THE CLOSED 500HPA LOW DROPPING DOWN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FEEL THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SCATTERED BUT
ONGOING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT SATURDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT. THIS COLD POOL
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AS A WARM
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS DUE TO BR POSSIBLE
AT KSLK BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z SUN. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
15Z WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20KTS OUT OF THE W/NW...THEN DIMINISH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING LOCAL MVFR IFR CONDITIONS. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS.. WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050625
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
225 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 843 PM EDT SATURDAY...500MB COLD POOL /-19C TO -20C/ REMAINS
CENTERED OVER VT LATE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX WHICH IS ELONGATED E-W ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING IS RESULTING IN RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA...AND 20-30 POPS WILL DECREASE TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS MOST SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MID-LEVEL VORT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AS WELL...YIELDING LESS SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW
REMAINS WLY/NWLY AND WILL SEE 10-20 MPH WINDS...GUSTS LCL TO 25
MPH...UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PBL NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE MOST
AREAS...WITH WINDS 5-10 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS MOST AREAS.
FOR THESE REASONS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH NOCTURNAL FOG FORMATION.
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...WIND...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LVL AIR
MASS/T-ADVECTION WILL YIELD LOWS OF AROUND 54F AT KBTV AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. A FEW MIN TEMP
READINGS IN THE MID 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A DRY
DAY SUNDAY. PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH OVERSTAYED ITS WELCOME
WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO
KEEP SUNDAY DRY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR A DAY. VERY COLD 850 TEMPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO
ONLY EXPECTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER 70S...DESPITE
SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE RETURNING. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND
SHOWWALTERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING IN THE MODEL DATA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL TOTALS ARE ALSO POINTING TO SOME CONVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
CONTINUED COLD POOL ALOFT INDICATE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM FORECASTS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
IN THE BIGGER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT SATURDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT. THIS COLD POOL
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AS A WARM
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HRS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS DUE TO BR POSSIBLE
AT KSLK BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z SUN. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
15Z WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20KTS OUT OF THE W/NW...THEN DIMINISH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING LOCAL MVFR IFR CONDITIONS. SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS.. WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD ALONG AND
EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KALY 050608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVERED
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING HAVE MOVED EAST. AN
AREA OF CLOUDS JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER NORTH OF ALBANY
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON REGION OF
NEW YORK AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY RADIATION FOG TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WINDS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR CALM.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S
LOOK GOOD.

TODAY SHOULD BE BY FAR THE BEST DAY WEATHERWISE OF THE JULY
FOURTH HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MIDDAY
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH...PERHAPS A
BIT STRONGER ACROSS NORTH/SOUTH RIDGES OR WHERE THE TERRAIN
HAS A FUNNELING EFFECT. A SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF
KINGSTON AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIR WEATHER
CU IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY FOR
THAT PICNIC OR COOKOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RADIATION FOG ISSUES MAY MATERIALIZE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT WERE CLOSING AT KGFL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...WE HAVE FORECAST
MVFR VISIBILITY BY 07Z WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR BETWEEN 07Z
AND 10Z. KPOU IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED...THERE WAS STILL A
SPREAD OF SEVERAL DEGREES AND SATELLITE IMAGES AND NEARBY
AUGMENTED ASOS OBS INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST
PARTLY IMPAIR RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE HAVE THEREFORE SIMPLY
FORECAST MVFR BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 08Z AND AROUND SUNRISE.
A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND SHOULD KEEP KALB VFR THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD BURN OFF AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE WITH A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR VFR FLIGHT AND PHOTOGRAPHY.
WE HAVE FORECAST FEW050 TO REFLECT SOME FAIR WX CU WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO POP UP MIDDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO
15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND SCT250 SOUTH
OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 050544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BRINGING DRY... UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOME HIGH...
THIN CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY
TO THE SOUTH... BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS... ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN COOLER
RIVER VALLEYS... WITH PATCHY FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
CAPPING. BASED ON THIS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA... FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE. MIXING MODEL
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM 800 MB WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 200 TO 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM...35 TO 50 KTS AT 5KM... INDICATING THAT IT WILL
NEED TO MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO
ALLOW CAPES TO GET A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
FORECAST. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO INDICATES THAT IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

AFTER SOME CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL INTO MON. FCST AREA IS STILL UNDER A LRG
ERN TROF...BUT SFC RDGG AND NW FLOW WILL HELP KEEP DRIER AIR IN
THE AREA. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT THE FORMATION OF
FOG...SO ONLY BRIEF PATCHES ARE XPTD IN THE DEEPEST VLYS. WITH
MIXING DAYTIME WIND WILL BECOME NW AGAIN TODAY...AT ARND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG...PRIMARILY AT KELM.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/RRM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 050535
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PRES GRADIENT RELAXING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS DIMINISHING. AS
SUCH...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. ALL IN ALL A FANTASTIC EVENING FOR OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY EVENTS.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AWAY FROM THE CITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
OUTLYING LOCALES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN CT/PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP CLOSE TO 50.

UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO REFLECT LOWER THEN EXPECTED
DEW POINTS/RH...AND SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF MINS ACROSS THE BOARD.
OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MON AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A POSSIBLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY ON TUE...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ONCE
AGAIN.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES TODAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS...
THOUGH WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE INITIALLY IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONGER THAN USUAL TO TRANSITION TO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON. WILL GENERALLY
EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...
THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/JC

000
FXUS61 KBUF 050532
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT
QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THESE...AS WELL AS MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER/TEMPS/WINDS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES...THE
REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
DRY...BUT ALSO RELATIVELY COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AND EVEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME OF
THE DEEPER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REAL BEAUTY. SFC RIDGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND ONLY A FEW
CU. 850 MB TEMPS A GOOD 2-3 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY`S WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH M-U 70S...A TAD BELOW NORMAL BUT VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND TEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE READILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE SHEARED VORTICITY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FORM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF.
THIS CUTOFF WILL LIKELY STAY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA...MERGES WITH THE CUTOFF.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER UNSTABLE YET DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CLASSIC INVERTED V SIGNATURE...YET
NOT AS UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH A BIT MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THEREFORE
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BY BOTH DAYS...AT LEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WILL
INTRODUCE A THREAT OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE AND HENCE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
OVERALL.  AM TEMPTED TO BUMP UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MOVE UP ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT FROM
CONTINUITY FOR MON/TUES...TO NEAR 40-50 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...A WARM
RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A MORE
PRONOUNCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WELCOME RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
80F MARK. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD
DRY...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR FRIDAY AND WITH A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WILL BRING DRY VFR
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS/WAVES CONTINUING TO DECREASE...HAVE DROPPED THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TEND MUCH LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
FRESHENING UP A BIT AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THOUGH SUNDAY`S WINDS WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG GIVEN THE RIDGING THAT WILL WILL BE IN
PLACE. NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING CONDITIONS
CLOSE TO CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...JJR/SFM

000
FXUS61 KBUF 050348
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1148 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT
QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THESE...AS WELL AS MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER/TEMPS/WINDS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES...THE
REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
DRY...BUT ALSO RELATIVELY COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AND EVEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME OF
THE DEEPER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REAL BEAUTY. SFC RIDGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND ONLY A FEW
CU. 850 MB TEMPS A GOOD 2-3 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY`S WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH M-U 70S...A TAD BELOW NORMAL BUT VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND TEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE READILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE SHEARED VORTICITY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FORM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF.
THIS CUTOFF WILL LIKELY STAY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA...MERGES WITH THE CUTOFF.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER UNSTABLE YET DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CLASSIC INVERTED V SIGNATURE...YET
NOT AS UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH A BIT MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THEREFORE
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BY BOTH DAYS...AT LEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WILL
INTRODUCE A THREAT OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE AND HENCE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
OVERALL.  AM TEMPTED TO BUMP UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MOVE UP ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT FROM
CONTINUITY FOR MON/TUES...TO NEAR 40-50 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...A WARM
RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A MORE
PRONOUNCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WELCOME RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
80F MARK. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD
DRY...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR FRIDAY AND WITH A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WILL BRING DRY VFR
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS/WAVES CONTINUING TO DECREASE...HAVE DROPPED THE
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TEND MUCH LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
FRESHENING UP A BIT AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THOUGH SUNDAY`S WINDS WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG GIVEN THE RIDGING THAT WILL WILL BE IN
PLACE. NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING CONDITIONS
CLOSE TO CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/SFM

000
FXUS61 KALY 050225
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1019 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  AS WE START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT...PREVIOUS BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAS
WEAKENED UPON DRIFTING SE...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HELDERBERGS...AND SOUTHERN VT. ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ONGOING GRIDDED DATABASE...MAINLY TO UPDATE
TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS WITH LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

AS OF 845 PM EDT...HAVE AMENDED FORECAST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION N AND W
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE TAIL END OF COMPACT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. SOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY GREAT LAKES HAS BEEN
CONTRIBUTING TO THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UPON MOVING SE...BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IN DURATION...ALTHOUGH
COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED
/YES IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAQUE THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH 60F. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH PLACES THE
REGION UNDER AN INCREASE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD TAKE
ITS TOLL ON THE CONVECTION AND WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE
DACKS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE TO BETWEEN 45F AND
55F.

A RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NCEP MODEL SUITE
ALL SUGGEST DRY WEATHER AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AS WE SHOULD
EXCEED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND NOON WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE INTO THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON MIXING LAYER HEIGHT FORECASTS
BETWEEN 800-750MB...WE SHOULD TAP OUT NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS WITH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE TAF SITES...WITH JUST
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH 5000-7000 FT AGL BASES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AT
KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPOU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS
LATER THIS EVENING AT KGFL...WHERE PROBABILITY FOR SOME MIFG IS A
BIT HIGHER...AND LEFT OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE.

FOR SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH BASES OF 5000-7000 FT AGL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 8 KT OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT IS POSSIBLE AT KALB WHERE FUNNELING ENHANCEMENT DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KBUF 050220
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT
QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THESE...AS WELL AS MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER/TEMPS/WINDS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES...THE
REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND
DRY...BUT ALSO RELATIVELY COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AND EVEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME OF
THE DEEPER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REAL BEAUTY. SFC RIDGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND ONLY A FEW
CU. 850 MB TEMPS A GOOD 2-3 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY`S WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH M-U 70S...A TAD BELOW NORMAL BUT VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND TEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE READILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE SHEARED VORTICITY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FORM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF.
THIS CUTOFF WILL LIKELY STAY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA...MERGES WITH THE CUTOFF.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER UNSTABLE YET DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CLASSIC INVERTED V SIGNATURE...YET
NOT AS UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH A BIT MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THEREFORE
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BY BOTH DAYS...AT LEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WILL
INTRODUCE A THREAT OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE AND HENCE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
OVERALL.  AM TEMPTED TO BUMP UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MOVE UP ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT FROM
CONTINUITY FOR MON/TUES...TO NEAR 40-50 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...A WARM
RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A MORE
PRONOUNCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WELCOME RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
80F MARK. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD
DRY...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR FRIDAY AND WITH A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WILL BRING DRY VFR
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS/WAVES ON THE DECREASE...HAVE DROPPED MOST SCA`S WITH
THE 10 PM MARINE FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT
THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE WINDS ARE ALSO STARTING TO
DROP...BUT ARE STILL IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE OSWEGO
NOS SITE. HAVE THUS EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR THIS LATTER AREA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...BY WHICH TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

OTHERWISE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TEND MUCH LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FRESHENING UP A BIT AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THOUGH
SUNDAY`S WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG GIVEN THE RIDGING
THAT WILL WILL BE IN PLACE. NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MAY BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/SFM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 050210
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BRINGING DRY... UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOME HIGH...
THIN CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY
TO THE SOUTH... BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS... ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN COOLER
RIVER VALLEYS... WITH PATCHY FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
CAPPING. BASED ON THIS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA... FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE. MIXING MODEL
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM 800 MB WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 200 TO 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM...35 TO 50 KTS AT 5KM... INDICATING THAT IT WILL
NEED TO MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO
ALLOW CAPES TO GET A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
FORECAST. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO INDICATES THAT IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

AFTER SOME CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KELM AND KITH. AT KITH, MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KELM, WENT PREVAILING MVFR FOG BEGINNING AT
08Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE LIMITING
CONDITIONS FOR FOG INCLUDE FAIRLY DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH MID EVENING THEN BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG...PRIMARILY AT KELM.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 050054
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
854 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 843 PM EDT SATURDAY...500MB COLD POOL /-19C TO -20C/ REMAINS
CENTERED OVER VT LATE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX WHICH IS ELONGATED E-W ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING IS RESULTING IN RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA...AND 20-30 POPS WILL DECREASE TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS MOST SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MID-LEVEL VORT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AS WELL...YIELDING LESS SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT TO SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW
REMAINS WLY/NWLY AND WILL SEE 10-20 MPH WINDS...GUSTS LCL TO 25
MPH...UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PBL NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE MOST
AREAS...WITH WINDS 5-10 MPH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS MOST AREAS.
FOR THESE REASONS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH NOCTURNAL FOG FORMATION.
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...WIND...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LVL AIR
MASS/T-ADVECTION WILL YIELD LOWS OF AROUND 54F AT KBTV AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. A FEW MIN TEMP
READINGS IN THE MID 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A DRY
DAY SUNDAY. PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH OVERSTAYED ITS WELCOME
WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO
KEEP SUNDAY DRY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR A DAY. VERY COLD 850 TEMPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO
ONLY EXPECTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER 70S...DESPITE
SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE RETURNING. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND
SHOWWALTERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING IN THE MODEL DATA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL TOTALS ARE ALSO POINTING TO SOME CONVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
CONTINUED COLD POOL ALOFT INDICATE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM FORECASTS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
IN THE BIGGER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT SATURDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT. THIS COLD POOL
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AS A WARM
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT WILL SCATTER OUT AND RISE
AFT 10Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ENDING ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. CIGS BELOW MVFR
CRITERIA WILL IMPACT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT...BUT ALL OTHER TAF LOCALS
WILL HAVE VFR CIGS AROUND 4K MSL. BRISK NW WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GUST ABOVE 20KTS OUT OF THE W/NW AFT
15Z TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING LOCAL MVFR IFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...CAUSING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KALY 050049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
844 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  AS WE START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT...HAVE AMENDED FORECAST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION N AND W
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE TAIL END OF COMPACT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. SOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY GREAT LAKES HAS BEEN
CONTRIBUTING TO THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UPON MOVING SE...BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IN DURATION...ALTHOUGH
COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED
/YES IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAQUE THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH 60F. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH PLACES THE
REGION UNDER AN INCREASE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD TAKE
ITS TOLL ON THE CONVECTION AND WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE
DACKS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE TO BETWEEN 45F AND
55F.

A RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NCEP MODEL SUITE
ALL SUGGEST DRY WEATHER AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AS WE SHOULD
EXCEED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND NOON WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE INTO THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON MIXING LAYER HEIGHT FORECASTS
BETWEEN 800-750MB...WE SHOULD TAP OUT NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS WITH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE TAF SITES...WITH JUST
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH 5000-7000 FT AGL BASES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AT
KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPOU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS
LATER THIS EVENING AT KGFL...WHERE PROBABILITY FOR SOME MIFG IS A
BIT HIGHER...AND LEFT OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE.

FOR SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH BASES OF 5000-7000 FT AGL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 8 KT OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT IS POSSIBLE AT KALB WHERE FUNNELING ENHANCEMENT DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 050033
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
833 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PRES GRADIENT RELAXING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS DIMINISHING. AS
SUCH...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. ALL IN ALL A FANTASTIC EVENING FOR OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY EVENTS.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AWAY FROM THE CITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
OUTLYING LOCALES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN CT/PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP CLOSE TO 50.

UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO REFLECT LOWER THEN EXPECTED
DEW POINTS/RH...AND SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF MINS ACROSS THE BOARD.
OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MON AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A POSSIBLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY ON TUE...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ONCE
AGAIN.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES SUNDAY AT COASTAL
AIRPORTS...ALTHOUGH TIMING IN CURRENT TAF PACKAGE MAY NEED TO BE
READJUSTED A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
MON...THEN A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON. WILL GENERALLY
EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...
THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 050006
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
806 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BRINGING DRY... UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOME HIGH...
THIN CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY
TO THE SOUTH... BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS... ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE FOR ONEIDA COUNTY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED SOUTH
FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DSIC...
A BKN CU FIELD REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
CU ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THICKER CLOUDS... AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET... AND I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT A TEMPERATURE DROP
THAT IS FASTER THAN CLIMO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN COOLER
RIVER VALLEYS... WITH PATCHY FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
CAPPING. BASED ON THIS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA... FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE. MIXING MODEL
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM 800 MB WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 200 TO 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM...35 TO 50 KTS AT 5KM... INDICATING THAT IT WILL
NEED TO MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO
ALLOW CAPES TO GET A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
FORECAST. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO INDICATES THAT IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

AFTER SOME CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KELM AND KITH. AT KITH, MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KELM, WENT PREVAILING MVFR FOG BEGINNING AT
08Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE LIMITING
CONDITIONS FOR FOG INCLUDE FAIRLY DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH MID EVENING THEN BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG...PRIMARILY AT KELM.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...RRM/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBUF 042351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT
QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW SOME BONA FIDE SHOWERS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS OPPOSED TO SPRINKLES...HAVE ALREADY SENT
AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS NEAR
TERM DISCO FOLLOWS...

300 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH EAST OF LK ONTARIO AT MID
AFTERNOON BUT WILL FINALLY ERODE AWAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS FINAL
SHORT WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL...WILL
COVER WITH SLGT CHC POPS UNTIL ABOUT 22Z. FURTHER WEST...SKIES HAVE
GENERALLY CLEARED...BUT PESKY STRIP OF CU ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE (NW AT NIAGARA...SW AT BUFFALO) HAS EXTENDED
ACROSS METRO BUF AND EAST INTO GENESEE COUNTY. THIS WILL ALSO MIX
OUT DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
OTHERWISE NO PROBLEMS AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING. WE DID EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM ON LK ONTARIO AND ISSUED ONE FOR
EASTERN LK ERIE TOO AS CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOL ADVECTION RESULTING
IN GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY WATERS. SEE MARINE BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FINE WEATHER FOR ANY
FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REAL BEAUTY. SFC RIDGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND ONLY A FEW
CU. 850 MB TEMPS A GOOD 2-3 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY`S WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH M-U 70S...A TAD BELOW NORMAL BUT VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND TEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE READILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE SHEARED VORTICITY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FORM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF.
THIS CUTOFF WILL LIKELY STAY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA...MERGES WITH THE CUTOFF.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER UNSTABLE YET DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CLASSIC INVERTED V SIGNATURE...YET
NOT AS UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH A BIT MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THEREFORE
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BY BOTH DAYS...AT LEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WILL
INTRODUCE A THREAT OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE AND HENCE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
OVERALL.  AM TEMPTED TO BUMP UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MOVE UP ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT FROM
CONTINUITY FOR MON/TUES...TO NEAR 40-50 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...A WARM
RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A MORE
PRONOUNCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WELCOME RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
80F MARK. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD
DRY...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR FRIDAY AND WITH A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND WILL BRING DRY VFR
WEATHER TO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING RATHER BRISK /15-25 KTS/ ACROSS
EASTERN LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS OF THIS WRITING...HAVE EXTENDED THE
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE WE STILL EXPECT A MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
THAT TIME...FEEL IT PRUDENT TO KEEP THE FLAGS UP A LITTLE LONGER
TO GIVE CONDITIONS A BIT MORE TIME TO IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THIS IS A MAJOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO...HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY A TOUCH EARLY AS WINDS/WAVES
HAVE ALREADY SAFELY SUBSIDED BELOW CRITERIA THERE.

AFTER SUNSET...LOOK FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO TEND MUCH MUCH LIGHTER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FRESHENING UP A BIT AGAIN
ON SUNDAY...THOUGH SUNDAY`S WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS
TODAY`S GIVEN THE RIDGING THAT WILL WILL BE IN PLACE. NO
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AT
LEAST...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE
TO CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/SFM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 042343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BRINGING DRY... UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOME HIGH...
THIN CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY
TO THE SOUTH... BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS... ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BKN CU FIELD REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
CU ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THICKER CLOUDS... AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET... AND I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT A TEMPERATURE DROP
THAT IS FASTER THAN CLIMO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN COOLER
RIVER VALLEYS... WITH PATCHY FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
CAPPING. BASED ON THIS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA... FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE. MIXING MODEL
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM 800 MB WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 200 TO 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM...35 TO 50 KTS AT 5KM... INDICATING THAT IT WILL
NEED TO MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO
ALLOW CAPES TO GET A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
FORECAST. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO INDICATES THAT IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

AFTER SOME CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY, THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KELM AND KITH. AT KITH, MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT KELM, WENT PREVAILING MVFR FOG BEGINNING AT
08Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. THE LIMITING
CONDITIONS FOR FOG INCLUDE FAIRLY DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH MID EVENING THEN BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG...PRIMARILY AT KELM.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KALY 042328
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  AS WE START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED
/YES IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAQUE THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH 60F. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH PLACES THE
REGION UNDER AN INCREASE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD TAKE
ITS TOLL ON THE CONVECTION AND WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE
DACKS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE TO BETWEEN 45F AND
55F.

A RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NCEP MODEL SUITE
ALL SUGGEST DRY WEATHER AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AS WE SHOULD
EXCEED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND NOON WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE INTO THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON MIXING LAYER HEIGHT FORECASTS
BETWEEN 800-750MB...WE SHOULD TAP OUT NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS WITH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE TAF SITES...WITH JUST
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH 5000-7000 FT AGL BASES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AT
KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPOU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS
LATER THIS EVENING AT KGFL...WHERE PROBABILITY FOR SOME MIFG IS A
BIT HIGHER...AND LEFT OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE.

FOR SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH BASES OF 5000-7000 FT AGL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 8 KT OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT IS POSSIBLE AT KALB WHERE FUNNELING ENHANCEMENT DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER/KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 042319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...VORT THAT DOVE INTO BASE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROF TODAY IS HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL VORT MOVES COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
CWA. AS VORT PUSHES EAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GO ALONG WITH
IT.  WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
DEPARTING TROF. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
VALLEY AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 850 TEMPS ARE BACK
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A DRY
DAY SUNDAY. PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH OVERSTAYED ITS WELCOME
WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO
KEEP SUNDAY DRY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR A DAY. VERY COLD 850 TEMPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO
ONLY EXPECTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER 70S...DESPITE
SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE RETURNING. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND
SHOWWALTERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING IN THE MODEL DATA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL TOTALS ARE ALSO POINTING TO SOME CONVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
CONTINUED COLD POOL ALOFT INDICATE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM FORECASTS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
IN THE BIGGER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT SATURDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT. THIS COLD POOL
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AS A WARM
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT WILL SCATTER OUT AND RISE
AFT 10Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...ENDING ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. CIGS BELOW MVFR
CRITERIA WILL IMPACT KSLK/KMPV TONIGHT...BUT ALL OTHER TAF LOCALS
WILL HAVE VFR CIGS AROUND 4K MSL. BRISK NW WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GUST ABOVE 20KTS OUT OF THE W/NW AFT
15Z TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING LOCAL MVFR IFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...CAUSING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KBUF 042146
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
546 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT
QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW SOME BONA FIDE SHOWERS WORKING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS OPPOSED TO SPRINKLES...HAVE ALREADY SENT
AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS
COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS NEAR
TERM DISCO FOLLOWS...

300 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH EAST OF LK ONTARIO AT MID
AFTERNOON BUT WILL FINALLY ERODE AWAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS FINAL
SHORT WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL...WILL
COVER WITH SLGT CHC POPS UNTIL ABOUT 22Z. FURTHER WEST...SKIES HAVE
GENERALLY CLEARED...BUT PESKY STRIP OF CU ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE (NW AT NIAGARA...SW AT BUFFALO) HAS EXTENDED
ACROSS METRO BUF AND EAST INTO GENESEE COUNTY. THIS WILL ALSO MIX
OUT DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
OTHERWISE NO PROBLEMS AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING. WE DID EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM ON LK ONTARIO AND ISSUED ONE FOR
EASTERN LK ERIE TOO AS CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOL ADVECTION RESULTING
IN GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY WATERS. SEE MARINE BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FINE WEATHER FOR ANY
FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REAL BEAUTY. SFC RIDGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND ONLY A FEW
CU. 850 MB TEMPS A GOOD 2-3 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY`S WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH M-U 70S...A TAD BELOW NORMAL BUT VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND TEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE READILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE SHEARED VORTICITY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FORM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF.
THIS CUTOFF WILL LIKELY STAY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA...MERGES WITH THE CUTOFF.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER UNSTABLE YET DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CLASSIC INVERTED V SIGNATURE...YET
NOT AS UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH A BIT MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THEREFORE
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BY BOTH DAYS...AT LEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WILL
INTRODUCE A THREAT OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE AND HENCE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
OVERALL.  AM TEMPTED TO BUMP UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MOVE UP ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT FROM
CONTINUITY FOR MON/TUES...TO NEAR 40-50 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...A WARM
RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A MORE
PRONOUNCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WELCOME RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
80F MARK. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD
DRY...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR FRIDAY AND WITH A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHWARD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CIGS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. ELSEWHERE CUMULUS GENERALLY IN THE LOW VFR CATEGORY
WILL ALTER BETWEEN SCT AND BKN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE REGION TONIGHT COUPLED
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD ADVECTION HAS ACTUALLY ALLOWED FOR AN
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAKES TODAY...VERY UNUSUAL FOR EARLY
SUMMER...MORE OF A FALL TYPE SITUATION (COOLER AIR OVER WARMER
WATERS). AS A RESULT...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS ON ONTARIO AND EVEN
ISSUED ONE ON ERIE UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT AS WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING PAST
20 KTS AT BUF HRBR AND E LK ERIE BUOY...CREATING CHOPPY WATERS AT
LEAST. WAVES MAY NOT QUITE BE UP TO 5 FEET...BUT LOTS OF BOATERS OUT
THERE ON THE HOLIDAY SO FELT IT PRUDENT. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING SO THE SCA WILL BE DROPPED AT 8 PM.

LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BUT THEY WILL FRESHEN UP JUST A BIT
AGAIN ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY`S AS
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY AT LEAST...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING CONDITIONS
CLOSE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SFM

000
FXUS61 KALY 041958
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  AS WE START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED
/YES IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAQUE THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH 60F. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH PLACES THE
REGION UNDER AN INCREASE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD TAKE
ITS TOLL ON THE CONVECTION AND WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE
DACKS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE TO BETWEEN 45F AND
55F.

A RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NCEP MODEL SUITE
ALL SUGGEST DRY WEATHER AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AS WE SHOULD
EXCEED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND NOON WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE INTO THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON MIXING LAYER HEIGHT FORECASTS
BETWEEN 800-750MB...WE SHOULD TAP OUT NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS WITH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SMALLER CLOUD CELLS AND BIGGER GAPS AT POU.
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS STAYING WELL N OF GFL.  HAVE COVERED FIRST
FEW HOURS THERE WITH A VCSH.  SKIES WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH BARELY MVFR FOG/HAZE A POSSIBILITY AT ALL THREE
AIRPORTS...WITH SOME HAZE FROM FIREWORKS MIXED IN AS WINDS QUICKLY
CALM DOWN AFTER SUNDOWN.  MARGINAL SHEAR IS INDICATED THROUGH 2000
FEET AT BOTH GFL AND ALB...BUT NOT AT POU.  THIS MIXES OUT AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.  ONE OR TWO SCT FAIR
WEATHER CU/SC LAYERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 041958
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...VORT THAT DOVE INTO BASE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROF TODAY IS HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL VORT MOVES COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
CWA. AS VORT PUSHES EAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GO ALONG WITH
IT.  WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
DEPARTING TROF. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
VALLEY AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 850 TEMPS ARE BACK
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A DRY
DAY SUNDAY. PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH OVERSTAYED ITS WELCOME
WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO
KEEP SUNDAY DRY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR A DAY. VERY COLD 850 TEMPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO
ONLY EXPECTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER 70S...DESPITE
SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE RETURNING. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND
SHOWWALTERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING IN THE MODEL DATA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL TOTALS ARE ALSO POINTING TO SOME CONVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
CONTINUED COLD POOL ALOFT INDICATE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM FORECASTS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
IN THE BIGGER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT SATURDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT. THIS COLD POOL
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AS A WARM
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECT LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
IN CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 041931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...VORT THAT DOVE INTO BASE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROF TODAY IS HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL VORT MOVES COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
CWA. AS VORT PUSHES EAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GO ALONG WITH
IT.  WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
DEPARTING TROF. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
VALLEY AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 850 TEMPS ARE BACK
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A DRY
DAY SUNDAY. PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH OVERSTAYED ITS WELCOME
WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION
TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO
KEEP SUNDAY DRY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR A DAY. VERY COLD 850 TEMPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO
ONLY EXPECTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER 70S...DESPITE
SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE RETURNING. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND
SHOWWALTERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING IN THE MODEL DATA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL TOTALS ARE ALSO POINTING TO SOME CONVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
CONTINUED COLD POOL ALOFT INDICATE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM FORECASTS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
IN THE BIGGER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THEN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN. A RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY
SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL
READINGS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ENOUGH MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
MAINTAIN PRESENCE OF FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
TERRAIN...THOUGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. GFS SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THUS IS MORE ROBUST ON TIMING AND SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT OF WARM
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN CONTRAST THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING US IN THE
WARM/DRY SECTOR. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW... WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...INCREASING FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECT LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
IN CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBGM 041910
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BRINGING DRY... UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA. SOME HIGH...
THIN CLOUDS MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS BY
TO THE SOUTH... BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY... BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS... ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BKN CU FIELD REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT
CU ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THICKER CLOUDS... AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET... AND I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT A TEMPERATURE DROP
THAT IS FASTER THAN CLIMO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S IN COOLER
RIVER VALLEYS... WITH PATCHY FOG PROBABLY DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY INDICATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
CAPPING. BASED ON THIS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CWA... FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE. MIXING MODEL
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM 800 MB WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE INDICATING MODEST CAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 200 TO 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENOUGH TO
MENTION SOME THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM...35 TO 50 KTS AT 5KM... INDICATING THAT IT WILL
NEED TO MONITORED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS TO
ALLOW CAPES TO GET A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
FORECAST. NW FLOW ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO INDICATES THAT IT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

AFTER SOME CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KELM AND KITH...WHERE FOG IS ANTICIPATED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED AT
KELM...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE AT KITH.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT...THEN STAY UNDER 10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG...PRIMARILY AT KELM.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KOKX 041902
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS THIS EVENING...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...JUST
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RELAX...BUT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AWAY FROM THE CITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
OUTLYING LOCALES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN CT/PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP CLOSE TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MON AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A POSSIBLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY ON TUE...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ONCE
AGAIN.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR...WITH W-NW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
AFTN CU SCT TO BKN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES SUNDAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
MON...THEN A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON. WILL GENERALLY
EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...
THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 041846
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A COOL BUT
QUIET END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PLAGUE THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH EAST OF LK ONTARIO AT MID
AFTERNOON BUT WILL FINALLY ERODE AWAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS FINAL
SHORT WAVE SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL...WILL
COVER WITH SLGT CHC POPS UNTIL ABOUT 22Z. FURTHER WEST...SKIES HAVE
GENERALLY CLEARED...BUT PESKY STRIP OF CU ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE (NW AT NIAGARA...SW AT BUFFALO) HAS EXTENDED
ACROSS METRO BUF AND EAST INTO GENESEE COUNTY. THIS WILL ALSO MIX
OUT DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.
OTHERWISE NO PROBLEMS AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING. WE DID EXTEND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM ON LK ONTARIO AND ISSUED ONE FOR
EASTERN LK ERIE TOO AS CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOL ADVECTION RESULTING
IN GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY WATERS. SEE MARINE BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FINE WEATHER FOR ANY
FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REAL BEAUTY. SFC RIDGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FULL SUNSHINE AND ONLY A FEW
CU. 850 MB TEMPS A GOOD 2-3 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY`S WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO REACH M-U 70S...A TAD BELOW NORMAL BUT VERY COMFORTABLE
INDEED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND TEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE READILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE SHEARED VORTICITY
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND FORM YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF.
THIS CUTOFF WILL LIKELY STAY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA...MERGES WITH THE CUTOFF.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER UNSTABLE YET DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CLASSIC INVERTED V SIGNATURE...YET
NOT AS UNSTABLE ALOFT WITH A BIT MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THEREFORE
EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BY BOTH DAYS...AT LEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. WILL
INTRODUCE A THREAT OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE AND HENCE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
OVERALL.  AM TEMPTED TO BUMP UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
HIGHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MOVE UP ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT FROM
CONTINUITY FOR MON/TUES...TO NEAR 40-50 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...A WARM
RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  A MORE
PRONOUNCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A WELCOME RETURN TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE
80F MARK. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD
DRY...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR FRIDAY AND WITH A COLD FRONT FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHWARD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CIGS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. ELSEWHERE CUMULUS GENERALLY IN THE LOW VFR CATEGORY
WILL ALTER BETWEEN SCT AND BKN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE REGION TONIGHT COUPLED
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD ADVECTION HAS ACTUALLY ALLOWED FOR AN
INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAKES TODAY...VERY UNUSUAL FOR EARLY
SUMMER...MORE OF A FALL TYPE SITUATION (COOLER AIR OVER WARMER
WATERS). AS A RESULT...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS ON ONTARIO AND EVEN
ISSUED ONE ON ERIE UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT AS WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING PAST
20 KTS AT BUF HRBR AND E LK ERIE BUOY...CREATING CHOPPY WATERS AT
LEAST. WAVES MAY NOT QUITE BE UP TO 5 FEET...BUT LOTS OF BOATERS OUT
THERE ON THE HOLIDAY SO FELT IT PRUDENT. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING SO THE SCA WILL BE DROPPED AT 8 PM.

LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BUT THEY WILL FRESHEN UP JUST A BIT
AGAIN ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY`S AS
RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED
INTO MONDAY AT LEAST...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING CONDITIONS
CLOSE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SFM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 041810
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
210 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...AND FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE HOLIDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKS LIKE VORT PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY HAS SPARKED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING 500HPA SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST.
AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS AND BEGIN TO
BREAK THE CLOUDS UP A BIT. WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS
4-8C) TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THE HOLIDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WINDS
TURN TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT
AS WELL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND
ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT RETREATS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...BUT STILL RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON MONDAY. MODELS AGREE ON SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S AND SW/S. WITH SUCH A
COLD COOL POOL ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS STILL ONLY IN SINGLE DIGITS)
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE HAIL...BUT
LIKELY NO LARGER THAN PEA SIZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THEN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN. A RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY
SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL
READINGS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ENOUGH MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
MAINTAIN PRESENCE OF FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
TERRAIN...THOUGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. GFS SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THUS IS MORE ROBUST ON TIMING AND SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT OF WARM
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN CONTRAST THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING US IN THE
WARM/DRY SECTOR. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW... WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...INCREASING FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECT LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
IN CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBGM 041751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS... ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. CLEAR... COOL
WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY SUNNY WEATHER ON SUNDAY
AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO ACROSS NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY... WITH BKN CU COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL NY.
MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON... SO
EXPECT ANY LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.... AND BKN CU WILL BECOME MORE SCT. VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS 20 KT WINDS AT 3 KFT AT KBGM,,, AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT OCNL GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING
INCREASES WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.

HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
MIXING NAM/GFS 825 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE SFC WITH A SHALLOW SFC-
BASED SUPER- ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. BASED ON THIS EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY MAINLY 70 TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGAN TO BUILD ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE CWA FOR A DAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE LOW
AND KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED...WHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS THE LOW
CLOSED AND THE HAS IT BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BEFORE IT REACHES
THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE NAM MORE CLOSELY MATCHES THE GFS. IT KEEPS THE LOW
CLOSED...AND ALSO HAS THE SYSTEM DRIER. GIVEN THIS...KEPT MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH EASTERN PORTION WHERE POPS
ARE UP TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS ATTM AS
INSTABILITY STAYS OUTSIDE OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERN U.S./EASTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL IMPACT OUR AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THUS...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO START OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND ULTIMATELY EXIT THE AREA.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY...SO
WE`VE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS FRONT STAYS PROGRESSIVE...BETTER
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KELM AND KITH...WHERE FOG IS ANTICIPATED LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED AT
KELM...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE AT KITH.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT...THEN STAY UNDER 10 KT ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG...PRIMARILY AT KELM.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KALY 041731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
GIVING US A DRY DAY...BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA...BUT
MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS HELPING ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE HELPING SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE.
STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND 1.5 SD BELOW
NORMAL...SUGGESTS THAT WITH MAXIMUM SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES. SO WITH CLOUD
COVER...DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS. WORDED SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN SOME
AREAS...REPLACING SHOWER WORDING AS TO NOT OVERSTATE THE RAIN
CHANCES. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

PREV AFD BELOW...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND
CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EITHER
VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG ACROSS SE PORTION OF FA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE
APRIL THAN JULY WITH A RANGE OF 5.5 TO 8 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z
TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF HAIL TO BE SMALL. TOO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN
HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS...H5
WINDS ONLY 20-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA IN WRONG
QUAD (LR)OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THURSDAY...AND WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOL TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S TO
THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT ON THE SULTRY SIDE WITH LOWS 55 TO 65 THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEXES 90 TO 95 IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SMALLER CLOUD CELLS AND BIGGER GAPS AT POU.
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS STAYING WELL N OF GFL.  HAVE COVERED FIRST
FEW HOURS THERE WITH A VCSH.  SKIES WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH BARELY MVFR FOG/HAZE A POSSIBILITY AT ALL THREE
AIRPORTS...WITH SOME HAZE FROM FIREWORKS MIXED IN AS WINDS QUICKLY
CALM DOWN AFTER SUNDOWN.  MARGINAL SHEAR IS INDICATED THROUGH 2000
FEET AT BOTH GFL AND ALB...BUT NOT AT POU.  THIS MIXES OUT AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.  ONE OR TWO SCT FAIR
WEATHER CU/SC LAYERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RISE
TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND WEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE
STORMS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DID NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL SO THEY HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
AVIATION...ELH

000
FXUS61 KOKX 041726
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF NY STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST TODAY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEEP NW
FLOW AND BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AREAWIDE...WARMEST NY/NJ METRO AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT IN WAKE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY. CANADIAN
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...FALLING INTO
THE 50S. PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN THE PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

NEXT PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HAVE AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AND DIGGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY PHASING OF THESE
TWO IMPULSES...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUN WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WERE TO PHASE THIS WOULD DIG
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...BRINGING THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN
EVE/SUN NIGHT BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND CLOSEST APPROACH.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUN WITH PARTY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID DECK CLOUDS. BACKING FLOW ON
SUN WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MON. UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR S AND E THIS FEATURE DIGS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. TEMPS RUNNING NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-END
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE DIURNAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER
THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR...WITH W-NW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
AFTN CU SCT TO BKN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES SUNDAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
MON...THEN A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY W-NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
15-20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
JUST DOWNWIND OF BETTER VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE NYC URBAN HEAT
ISLAND. ISSUING SCA WOULD BE OVERKILL GIVEN BRIEF EXPECTED
COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY 25-KT GUSTS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KBUF 041644
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1244 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM WITHDRAWS...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH
DAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS CNTRL NY AND AREAS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO AT MIDDAY...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY MIX OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS ELONGATED SHORT WAVE HANGS BACK ACROSS THE ST LAWR
VALLEY. WILL ADJUST SKY AND POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE WEST AS EXPECTED...BUT PLENTY OF CU
FORMING ALONG LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ALSO TEND TO THIN
OUT AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. ADJUSTED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO WITH WIND BACKED TO SW AT BUF...LOWERED
TEMPS TO U60S/NR 70 MAX THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR MIDDAY
UPDATE. OVERALL...A NICE HOLIDAY COMING UP...A LITTLE BREEZY AND
COOL NEAR THE WATERS...MORE LIKE EARLY SEPT THAN EARLY JULY. PREV
DISC FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR ANY
FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN
SOME MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIP AND MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A 500MB LOW
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WILL HAVE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH COOLER MID 40S
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THICKER CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS ON
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL HANG
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN ON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING BACK
TO THE MID 70S. A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND TO THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHWARD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CIGS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. ELSEWHERE CUMULUS GENERALLY IN THE LOW VFR CATEGORY
WILL ALTER BETWEEN SCT AND BKN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE REGION TONIGHT COUPLED
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL LAKE ONTARIO
WATERS. CRITERIA BEING MET AT MID MORNING AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS
TO DIMINISH UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS
COOL ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE WARMER WATERS IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. VERY ACTIVE BOATING DAY TO SAY THE LEAST SO WE WILL STAY ON
THE SAFE SIDE. WINDS NOT AS STRONG ON THE ERIE WATERS ALTHOUGH
TWEAKED THEM UP A LITTLE ON THE GRIDS. WINDS WILL SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL
PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...SFM/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SFM/WCH

000
FXUS61 KBUF 041621
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1221 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM WITHDRAWS...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH
DAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 PM UPDATE...CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS CNTRL NY AND AREAS
EAST OF LK ONTARIO AT MIDDAY...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY MIX OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS ELONGATED SHORT WAVE HANGS BACK ACROSS THE ST LAWR
VALLEY. WILL ADJUST SKY AND POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE WEST AS EXPECTED...BUT PLENTY OF CU
FORMING ALONG LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ALSO TEND TO THIN
OUT AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. ADJUSTED SKY
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO WITH WIND BACKED TO SW AT BUF...LOWERED
TEMPS TO U60S/NR 70 MAX THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR MIDDAY
UPDATE. OVERALL...A NICE HOLIDAY COMING UP...A LITTLE BREEZY AND
COOL NEAR THE WATERS...MORE LIKE EARLY SEPT THAN EARLY JULY. PREV
DISC FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR ANY
FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN
SOME MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIP AND MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A 500MB LOW
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WILL HAVE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH COOLER MID 40S
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THICKER CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS ON
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL HANG
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN ON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING BACK
TO THE MID 70S. A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND TO THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH SOME VFR BASED CU EXCEPT
KART WHICH WILL RETAIN MVFR CIGS AT TIMES. VFR ALL SITES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL LAKE ONTARIO
WATERS. CRITERIA BEING MET AT MID MORNING AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS
TO DIMINISH UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS
COOL ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE WARMER WATERS IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. VERY ACTIVE BOATING DAY TO SAY THE LEAST SO WE WILL STAY ON
THE SAFE SIDE. WINDS NOT AS STRONG ON THE ERIE WATERS ALTHOUGH
TWEAKED THEM UP A LITTLE ON THE GRIDS. WINDS WILL SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL
PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...SFM/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA/SFM
MARINE...SFM/WCH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 041544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1144 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...AND FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE HOLIDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO
INCREASE POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKS LIKE VORT PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY HAS SPARKED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT.
OTHERWISE...MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOWING 500HPA SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST.
AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS AND BEGIN TO
BREAK THE CLOUDS UP A BIT. WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS
4-8C) TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THE HOLIDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WINDS
TURN TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT
AS WELL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND
ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT RETREATS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...BUT STILL RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON MONDAY. MODELS AGREE ON SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S AND SW/S. WITH SUCH A
COLD COOL POOL ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS STILL ONLY IN SINGLE DIGITS)
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE HAIL...BUT
LIKELY NO LARGER THAN PEA SIZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THEN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN. A RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY
SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL
READINGS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ENOUGH MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
MAINTAIN PRESENCE OF FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
TERRAIN...THOUGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. GFS SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THUS IS MORE ROBUST ON TIMING AND SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT OF WARM
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN CONTRAST THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING US IN THE
WARM/DRY SECTOR. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW... WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...INCREASING FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
MAINLY TERRAIN ENHANCED ALONG THE GREENS AND DACKS. DRYER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...LIFTING OUR LOCALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL VFR AFTER 14Z... AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT AFTER 22Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT...DIMINISHING AROUND 23Z. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WILL WATCH FOR BR FORMATION TOWARD 09Z
SUNDAY AT FAVORABLE LOCATIONS LIKE KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KBGM 041529
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1129 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS... ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER
CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. CLEAR... COOL
WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY SUNNY WEATHER ON SUNDAY
AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO ACROSS NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY... WITH BKN CU COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL NY.
MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON... SO
EXPECT ANY LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.... AND BKN CU WILL BECOME MORE SCT. VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS 20 KT WINDS AT 3 KFT AT KBGM,,, AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
EXPECT OCNL GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING
INCREASES WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE.

HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
MIXING NAM/GFS 825 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE SFC WITH A SHALLOW SFC-
BASED SUPER- ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. BASED ON THIS EXPECT HIGHS
TODAY MAINLY 70 TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGAN TO BUILD ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE CWA FOR A DAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE LOW
AND KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED...WHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS THE LOW
CLOSED AND THE HAS IT BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BEFORE IT REACHES
THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE NAM MORE CLOSELY MATCHES THE GFS. IT KEEPS THE LOW
CLOSED...AND ALSO HAS THE SYSTEM DRIER. GIVEN THIS...KEPT MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH EASTERN PORTION WHERE POPS
ARE UP TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS ATTM AS
INSTABILITY STAYS OUTSIDE OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN STICKING POINT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD CONCERNS
THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER NORTHEASTERN
U.S./EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL...OPENING THIS FEATURE UP MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND
MOVING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE EURO MODEL DIGS
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NY STATE...AND IS SLOWER TO LIFT
IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HPC IS STILL SIDING WITH THE
EURO...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL INDICATE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
WEDNESDAY...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RISE.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH ON SATURDAY...SO WE`VE INSERTED A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT TODAY BRING ALL CIGS INTO THE VFR
RANGE. WITH HTG...WLD STILL XPCT A BKN CIG ATTM THRU THE DAY...ESP
WITH THE MORE STABLE MID LVL LYR. CLRG TNGT...AND IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AND MIXED ENUF TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
FRMG.

W/NW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
TO 22 KNOTS. LGT AND VRBL OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING IFR FOG...MOSTLY AT
KELM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 041518
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF NY STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST TODAY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEEP NW
FLOW AND BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AREAWIDE...WARMEST NY/NJ METRO AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT IN WAKE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY. CANADIAN
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOD FRONT THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...FALLING INTO
THE 50S. PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN THE PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

NEXT PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HAVE AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AND DIGGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY PHASING OF THESE
TWO IMPULSES...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUN WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WERE TO PHASE THIS WOULD DIG
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...BRINGING THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN
EVE/SUN NIGHT BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND CLOSEST APPROACH.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUN WITH PARTY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID DECK CLOUDS. BACKING FLOW ON
SUN WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MON. UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR S AND E THIS FEATURE DIGS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. TEMPS RUNNING NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-END
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE DIURNAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER
THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...WITH W-NW FLOW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...
UNCOMMON FOR EARLY JULY. COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
SOME VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION BETWEEN SW-W THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN
INLAND TERMINALS ONCE DAYTIME HEATING TRANSPORTS STRONGER WINDS DOWN
FROM ALOFT. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR TYPICAL MOS LOW EARLY EVENING SPEED
BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF POST-FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION SITUATION...AND
HELD ONTO STRONGER WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z-02Z...THEN SETTLED THINGS
DOWN TO UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY W-NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
15-20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
JUST DOWNWIND OF BETTER VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE NYC URBAN HEAT
ISLAND. ISSUING SCA WOULD BE OVERKILL GIVEN BRIEF EXPECTED
COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY 25-KT GUSTS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KALY 041454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
GIVING US A DRY DAY...BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA...BUT
MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS HELPING ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE HELPING SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE.
STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND 1.5 SD BELOW
NORMAL...SUGGESTS THAT WITH MAXIMUM SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES. SO WITH CLOUD
COVER...DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS. WORDED SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN SOME
AREAS...REPLACING SHOWER WORDING AS TO NOT OVERSTATE THE RAIN
CHANCES. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

PREV AFD BELOW...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND
CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EITHER
VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG ACROSS SE PORTION OF FA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE
APRIL THAN JULY WITH A RANGE OF 5.5 TO 8 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z
TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF HAIL TO BE SMALL. TOO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN
HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS...H5
WINDS ONLY 20-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA IN WRONG
QUAD (LR)OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THURSDAY...AND WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOL TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S TO
THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT ON THE SULTRY SIDE WITH LOWS 55 TO 65 THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEXES 90 TO 95 IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS LAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WAS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE CIG AT KALB
KALB WILL BE SCT-BKN025. WE FEEL SCT025 WILL BE THE PREVAILING
LOW CLOUDS UNDER A MIDLEVEL DECK. SUBSIDENCE OFF THE HIGH
CATSKILLS WILL KEEP THE CIG AT KPOU VFR WITH BKN050 WITH KGFL
BEING BARELY VFR AT BKN040. MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALL 3 TAF
SITES...SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON...WITH SCT050 BKN150-250
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WNW TODAY AND WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH...PERHAPS A FEW KTS HIGHER AT KALB WHERE THE FUNNELING
EFFECT OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TENDS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
WESTERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING KGFL AND OVER BODIES OF WATER.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN PM.
TUE/WED...VFR...PSSBL EARLY AM FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RISE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND WEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE
STORMS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DID NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL SO THEY HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 041334
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM WITHDRAWS...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH
DAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...STUBBORN POSTFRONTAL UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDINESS
COVERS MOST OF WESTERN NY AT MID MORNING...BUT IT IS SLOWLY ERODING
AWAY AND SHOULD BE GONE BY NOON OR SO..WITH SRN TIER LAST TO
CLEAR. BUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS ONLY A VERY THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE
AROUND 2K FT WHICH SHOULDN`T LAST LONG. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE LOWER
THAN FORECASTED AT 14Z DUE TO THE LINGERING CLOUD...BUT SHOULD RECOVER
EVENTUALLY TO FORECASTED VALUES BY 20Z OR SO. LAST OF THE SHOWERS
APPEAR TO HAVE EXITED THE NORTH COUNTRY...ALTHOUGH WILL CARRY
SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE IS STRETCHED
OUT AND WONT CLEAR THAT AREA UNTIL AFT 18Z. JUST TWEAKED SKY AND
TEMP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALL IN ALL...A NICE HOLIDAY COMING UP...A
LITTLE BREEZY AND COOL NEAR THE WATERS. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER FOR ANY FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A
RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN SOME MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIP AND MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A 500MB LOW
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WILL HAVE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH COOLER MID 40S
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THICKER CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS ON
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL HANG
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN ON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING BACK
TO THE MID 70S. A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND TO THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE KART TAF SITE. SOME LOWER CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THIS MORNING AT MOST TAF SITES WITH BASES BETWEEN ONE
THOUSAND AND TWO THOUSAND FEET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL LAKE ONTARIO
WATERS. CRITERIA BEING MET AT MID MORNING AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS
TO DIMINISH UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AS
COOL ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE WARMER WATERS IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. VERY ACTIVE BOATING DAY TO SAY THE LEAST SO WE WILL STAY ON
THE SAFE SIDE. WINDS NOT AS STRONG ON THE ERIE WATERS ALTHOUGH
TWEAKED THEM UP A LITTLE ON THE GRIDS. WINDS WILL SLACKEN
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL
PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...SFM/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...SFM/WCH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 041221
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
821 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...AND FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE HOLIDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING 500HPA SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT LIKELY AS WINDS BEGIN
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD DRY THE LOW
LEVELS AND BEGIN TO BREAK THE CLOUDS UP A BIT. WITH SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS 4-8C) TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THE
HOLIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS WELL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND
ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT RETREATS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...BUT STILL RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON MONDAY. MODELS AGREE ON SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S AND SW/S. WITH SUCH A
COLD COOL POOL ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS STILL ONLY IN SINGLE DIGITS)
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE HAIL...BUT
LIKELY NO LARGER THAN PEA SIZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DIRURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THEN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN. A RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY
SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL
READINGS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ENOUGH MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
MAINTAIN PRESENCE OF FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
TERRAIN...THOUGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. GFS SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THUS IS MORE ROBUST ON TIMING AND SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT OF WARM
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN CONTRAST THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING US IN THE
WARM/DRY SECTOR. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW... WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...INCREASING FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
MAINLY TERRAIN ENHANCED ALONG THE GREENS AND DACKS. DRYER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...LIFTING OUR LOCALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL VFR AFTER 14Z... AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER
OUT AFTER 22Z. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT...DIMINISHING AROUND 23Z. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WILL WATCH FOR BR FORMATION TOWARD 09Z
SUNDAY AT FAVORABLE LOCATIONS LIKE KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KBUF 041139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM WITHDRAWS...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH
DAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR ANY FOURTH OF JULY
ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN SOME MID TO
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIP AND MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A 500MB LOW
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WILL HAVE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH COOLER MID 40S
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THICKER CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS ON
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL HANG
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN ON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING BACK
TO THE MID 70S. A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND TO THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING THE KART TAF SITE. SOME LOWER CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THIS MORNING AT MOST TAF SITES WITH BASES BETWEEN ONE
THOUSAND AND TWO THOUSAND FEET. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG ALL OF THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE FROM
SODUS BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-
         043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...WCH

000
FXUS61 KOKX 041120
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS
MORNING DIVES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. DEEP NW
FLOW AND BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE...WARMEST NY/NJ METRO AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT IN WAKE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY. CANADIAN
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOD FRONT THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...FALLING INTO
THE 50S. PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN THE PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

NEXT PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HAVE AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AND DIGGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY PHASING OF THESE
TWO IMPULSES...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUN WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WERE TO PHASE THIS WOULD DIG
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...BRINGING THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN
EVE/SUN NIGHT BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND CLOSEST APPROACH.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUN WITH PARTY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID DECK CLOUDS. BACKING FLOW ON
SUN WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MON. UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR S AND E THIS FEATURE DIGS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. TEMPS RUNNING NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-END
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE DIURNAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER
THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...WITH W-NW FLOW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...
UNCOMMON FOR EARLY JULY. COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
SOME VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION BETWEEN SW-W THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN
INLAND TERMINALS ONCE DAYTIME HEATING TRANSPORTS STRONGER WINDS DOWN
FROM ALOFT. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR TYPICAL MOS LOW EARLY EVENING SPEED
BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF POST-FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION SITUATION...AND
HELD ONTO STRONGER WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z-02Z...THEN SETTLED THINGS
DOWN TO UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY W-NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
15-20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
JUST DOWNWIND OF BETTER VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE NYC URBAN HEAT
ISLAND. GIVEN NUMBER OF RECREATIONAL BOATERS WHO WILL BE OUT ON THE
WATERS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...ISSUED MARINE WX STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION. ISSUING SCA WOULD BE OVERKILL GIVEN BRIEF
EXPECTED COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY 25-KT GUSTS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION/MARINE...BG

000
FXUS61 KALY 041058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY...BUT THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS CONFINED TO THIS MORNING. SB
CAPES ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST THUS WILL ONLY MENTION
SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH TO CHANCE POPS NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THEN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF FA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. IT WILL
ACTUALLY FEEL RELATIVELY COOL TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON.
THIS WILL ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND.
HAVE HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN
RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND
CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EITHER
VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG ACROSS SE PORTION OF FA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE
APRIL THAN JULY WITH A RANGE OF 5.5 TO 8 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z
TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF HAIL TO BE SMALL. TOO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN
HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS...H5
WINDS ONLY 20-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA IN WRONG
QUAD (LR)OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THURSDAY...AND WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOL TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S TO
THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT ON THE SULTRY SIDE WITH LOWS 55 TO 65 THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEXES 90 TO 95 IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS LAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WAS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE CIG AT KALB
KALB WILL BE SCT-BKN025. WE FEEL SCT025 WILL BE THE PREVAILING
LOW CLOUDS UNDER A MIDLEVEL DECK. SUBSIDENCE OFF THE HIGH
CATSKILLS WILL KEEP THE CIG AT KPOU VFR WITH BKN050 WITH KGFL
BEING BARELY VFR AT BKN040. MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALL 3 TAF
SITES...SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON...WITH SCT050 BKN150-250
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WNW TODAY AND WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH...PERHAPS A FEW KTS HIGHER AT KALB WHERE THE FUNNELING
EFFECT OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TENDS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
WESTERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING KGFL AND OVER BODIES OF WATER.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN PM.
TUE/WED...VFR...PSSBL EARLY AM FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RISE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND WEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE
STORMS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DID NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL SO THEY HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBGM 041035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE DRY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE NE PA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS. AREAS AROUND THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGAN TO BUILD ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE CWA FOR A DAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE LOW
AND KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED...WHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS THE LOW
CLOSED AND THE HAS IT BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BEFORE IT REACHES
THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE NAM MORE CLOSELY MATCHES THE GFS. IT KEEPS THE LOW
CLOSED...AND ALSO HAS THE SYSTEM DRIER. GIVEN THIS...KEPT MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH EASTERN PORTION WHERE POPS
ARE UP TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS ATTM AS
INSTABILITY STAYS OUTSIDE OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN STICKING POINT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD CONCERNS
THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER NORTHEASTERN
U.S./EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL...OPENING THIS FEATURE UP MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND
MOVING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE EURO MODEL DIGS
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NY STATE...AND IS SLOWER TO LIFT
IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HPC IS STILL SIDING WITH THE
EURO...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL INDICATE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
WEDNESDAY...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RISE.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH ON SATURDAY...SO WE`VE INSERTED A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT TODAY BRING ALL CIGS INTO THE VFR
RANGE. WITH HTG...WLD STILL XPCT A BKN CIG ATTM THRU THE DAY...ESP
WITH THE MORE STABLE MID LVL LYR. CLRG TNGT...AND IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AND MIXED ENUF TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
FRMG.

W/NW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
TO 22 KNOTS. LGT AND VRBL OVRNGT.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING IFR FOG...MOSTLY AT
KELM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...AND FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE HOLIDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING 500HPA SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT LIKELY AS WINDS BEGIN
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD DRY THE LOW
LEVELS AND BEGIN TO BREAK THE CLOUDS UP A BIT. WITH SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS 4-8C) TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THE
HOLIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS WELL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND
ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT RETREATS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...BUT STILL RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON MONDAY. MODELS AGREE ON SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S AND SW/S. WITH SUCH A
COLD COOL POOL ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS STILL ONLY IN SINGLE DIGITS)
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE HAIL...BUT
LIKELY NO LARGER THAN PEA SIZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DIRURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THEN.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN. A RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY
SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL
READINGS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ENOUGH MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
MAINTAIN PRESENCE OF FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN
TERRAIN...THOUGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY. GFS SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THUS IS MORE ROBUST ON TIMING AND SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT OF WARM
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN CONTRAST THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING US IN THE
WARM/DRY SECTOR. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW... WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...INCREASING FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY IN NORTHERN HALF
OF VT...WHILE PRIMARILY VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BACK EDGE OF MAIN RAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE GREENS BY 10Z AND NEK BY 13Z. DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING
DRYER AIR IS MOVING IN...WHICH MAY INHIBIT FORMATION OF BR AND
STRATUS THROUGH MORNING...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. VFR CONDITIONS SAT
AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AFTER 16Z SAT. NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT...DIMINISHING
AROUND 23Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...AMF/WGH
AVIATION...AMF/DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KALY 040829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY...BUT THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS CONFINED TO THIS MORNING. SB
CAPES ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST THUS WILL ONLY MENTION
SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH TO CHANCE POPS NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THEN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF FA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. IT WILL
ACTUALLY FEEL RELATIVELY COOL TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON.
THIS WILL ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND.
HAVE HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN
RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND
CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EITHER
VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG ACROSS SE PORTION OF FA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE
APRIL THAN JULY WITH A RANGE OF 5.5 TO 8 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z
TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF HAIL TO BE SMALL. TOO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN
HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS...H5
WINDS ONLY 20-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA IN WRONG
QUAD (LR)OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THURSDAY...AND WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOL TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S TO
THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT ON THE SULTRY SIDE WITH LOWS 55 TO 65 THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEXES 90 TO 95 IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE HUDSON/MOHAWK/CHAMPLAIN
CORRIDORS WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY AOA 4000 FT ASL. THE MAJOR
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW CLOUDS 1500
TO 2500 FT ASL WERE CAUSING MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
IN THAT AREA...AND WITH MVF CIGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND GREEN MTNS OF SOUTHERN VT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORECAST THRU DAYBREAK ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBY
IN THE MID HUDSON REGION...INCLUDING KPOU...FROM RADIATION FOG.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT KGFL AND
KALB. WINDS WERE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 8 KTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ARE
LIKELY TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VFR MINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT
SOME DURING THE DAY TODAY TO SCT050 UNDER A BKN DECK OF 100-250
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS GONE BY
EVENING UNDER SOME SCTD CIRRUS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY
AND PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO KALB DUE TO THE FUNNELING
EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN PM.
TUE/WED...VFR...PSSBL EARLY AM FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RISE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND WEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE
STORMS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DID NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL SO THEY HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBGM 040807
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
407 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE DRY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE CWA
TODAY. WHILE NE PA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...AS WELL AS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS. AREAS AROUND THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGAN TO BUILD ON SATURDAY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE CWA FOR A DAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE LOW
AND KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED...WHILE THE ECMWF INITIALLY HAS THE LOW
CLOSED AND THE HAS IT BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BEFORE IT REACHES
THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THE NAM MORE CLOSELY MATCHES THE GFS. IT KEEPS THE LOW
CLOSED...AND ALSO HAS THE SYSTEM DRIER. GIVEN THIS...KEPT MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH EASTERN PORTION WHERE POPS
ARE UP TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS ATTM AS
INSTABILITY STAYS OUTSIDE OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN STICKING POINT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD CONCERNS
THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER NORTHEASTERN
U.S./EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL...OPENING THIS FEATURE UP MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND
MOVING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE EURO MODEL DIGS
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NY STATE...AND IS SLOWER TO LIFT
IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HPC IS STILL SIDING WITH THE
EURO...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL INDICATE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
WEDNESDAY...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RISE.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH ON SATURDAY...SO WE`VE INSERTED A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW FLOW BRINGING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND MVFR CIGS AT
A FEW SPOTS. XPCT LTL CHG OVRNGT...FLWD BY HIER CIGS INTO THE VFR
RANGE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LWR LVLS DRY AND MIX OUT. BALANCE OF
THE FCST PDS WILL SEE VFR CONDS AS SOME WEAK SFC RDGG BUILDS IN.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING IFR FOG...MOSTLY AT
KELM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/RRM

000
FXUS61 KBUF 040800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE SYSTEM WITHDRAWS...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH
DAY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR ANY FOURTH OF JULY
ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN SOME MID TO
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP PRECIP AND MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A 500MB LOW
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL. THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WILL HAVE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH COOLER MID 40S
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THICKER CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGHS ON
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL HANG
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN ON SUNSHINE AND HIGHS WARMING BACK
TO THE MID 70S. A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND TO THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO DEPART THE REGION WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUD CONDITIONS...BASES BETWEEN 15 HUNDRED AND 25 HUNDRED FEET ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN NEW YORK
INCLUDING THE KART TAF SITE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
12Z. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREAT
OF A SHOWER AT KART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET EAST OF ROCHESTER.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG ALL OF THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE FROM
SODUS BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE AND 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-
         043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...WCH

000
FXUS61 KOKX 040739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. RIDGING MAY BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS
MORNING DIVES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. DEEP NW
FLOW AND BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE...WARMEST NY/NJ METRO AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT IN WAKE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY. CANADIAN
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOD FRONT THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...FALLING INTO
THE 50S. PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN THE PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

NEXT PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HAVE AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AND DIGGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY PHASING OF THESE
TWO IMPULSES...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUN WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WERE TO PHASE THIS WOULD DIG
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...BRINGING THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN
EVE/SUN NIGHT BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND CLOSEST APPROACH.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUN WITH PARTY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID DECK CLOUDS. BACKING FLOW ON
SUN WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MON. UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR S AND E THIS FEATURE DIGS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. TEMPS RUNNING NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-END
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE DIURNAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER
THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. INCREASING NW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION...BUT
THOSE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING (ABOUT
12Z) AT AREA TERMINALS OTHER THAN KJFK/KLGA/KEWR...TOO MARGINAL A
SITUATION TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WITH NW FLOW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT
EXPECT A TRUE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...THOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE W IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KGON WHICH WILL LIE TO THE EAST OF A
DEVELOPING LEE SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT PUSHES E OF THE AREA TODAY WITH GUSTY W-NW FLOW TAKING HOLD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ITS WAKE...15-20 KT WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE JUST DOWNWIND OF BETTER
VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE NYC URBAN HEAT ISLAND. GIVEN NUMBER OF
RECREATIONAL BOATERS WHO WILL BE OUT ON THE WATERS THIS INDEPENDENCE
DAY HOLIDAY...ISSUING SCA FOR THIS WOULD BE OVERKILL BUT WILL STILL
ISSUE MARINE WX STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KBUF 040730
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY WIND DOWN AS THE SYSTEM
WITHDRAWS...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH DAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RETURNING BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TONIGHT WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR ANY FOURTH OF JULY
ACTIVITIES. LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH EVEN SOME MID TO
UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...STILL INDICATING
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY ALL OF THE
FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GENERALLY RAINFREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY BUT STILL COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

BY MONDAY THE NEXT IN A RELENTLESS SERIES OF DIGGING TROUGHS MOVING
INTO THE LOWER LAKES WILL COOL OUR WEATHER DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND WOULD
GIVE US A THREAT OF SHOWERS.  WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
HANGING BACK OVER OUR CWA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL GO CLOSER
TO THE HPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST AND
OUR REGION GETTING INTO A WARMING TREND EARLIER. WE WILL HAVE POPS
NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS PROMISE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH 850 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH AS 19C. MAYBE
SOME RWAL SUMMERY TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO DEPART THE REGION WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUD CONDITIONS...BASES BETWEEN 15 HUNDRED AND 25 HUNDRED FEET ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN NEW YORK
INCLUDING THE KART TAF SITE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
12Z. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREAT
OF A SHOWER AT KART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET EAST OF ROCHESTER.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE RIPLEY TO BUFFALO SECTION OF LAKE
ERIE AND FOR THE ENTIRE SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WE WILL EXTENDED THE SODUS BAY TO ST LAWRENCE SECTION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-
         043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SAGE
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...SAGE

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040703
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
303 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...AND FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE HOLIDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING 500HPA SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT LIKELY AS WINDS BEGIN
TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD DRY THE LOW
LEVELS AND BEGIN TO BREAK THE CLOUDS UP A BIT. WITH SUCH COLD AIR
ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS 4-8C) TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THE
HOLIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AS WINDS TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS WELL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVERNIGHT MINS WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND
ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
DRY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...THOUGH WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT RETREATS A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...BUT STILL RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
ON MONDAY. MODELS AGREE ON SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S AND SW/S. WITH SUCH A
COLD COOL POOL ALOFT (850HPA TEMPS STILL ONLY IN SINGLE DIGITS)
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE HAIL...BUT
LIKELY NO LARGER THAN PEA SIZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWER...MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SINCE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING... WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THESE DAYS. GMOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MOS AND WARMER GFS EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS 850 MB
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY...AND TO AROUND
17-18 CELSIUS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EAST AND CENTRAL DACKS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
BACK EDGE HAS MOVED THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. DEW POINTS
ARE DROPPING DRYER AIR IS MOVING IN...WHICH MAY INHIBIT FORMATION
OF BR AND STRATUS THROUGH MORNING...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
VFR CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AFTER 16Z SAT. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KT...DIMINISHING AROUND 23Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040615
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
215 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL OVERPSREAD MUCH OF VT THRU
MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL THEN TEND TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
LATER TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE RGN...BUT A MOIST NW
FLOW COUPLED WITH A TRAILING VORT WILL RESULT IN CONTD CHC OF
SHWRS. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT OUT TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS FOR TONIGHT. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO OTHER CHANGES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE REGION IN GENERAL NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY. VORT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE LIKELY SHOWERS MAINLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DROPPING TO CHANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...VERY LITTLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PROBABLY BE DIURNALLY AND/OR TERRAIN DRIVEN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. BUT...WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERALL CAA ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70. THESE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY GUSTY WITH INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REALLY PICKS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE DRY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SNEAK INTO THE MID 70S AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THESE
TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS A
WELCOME RELIEF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWER...MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SINCE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING... WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THESE DAYS. GMOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MOS AND WARMER GFS EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS 850 MB
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY...AND TO AROUND
17-18 CELSIUS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EAST AND CENTRAL DACKS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
BACK EDGE HAS MOVED THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. DEW POINTS
ARE DROPPING DRYER AIR IS MOVING IN...WHICH MAY INHIBIT FORMATION
OF BR AND STRATUS THROUGH MORNING...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
VFR CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AFTER 16Z SAT. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KT...DIMINISHING AROUND 23Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...WITH LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KOKX 040612
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
212 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
LATE...MAINLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...BUT
INCREASING WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK MAY WORK TO INHIBIT THIS
ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-
END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT
NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. INCREASING NW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION...BUT
THOSE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING (ABOUT
12Z) AT AREA TERMINALS OTHER THAN KJFK/KLGA/KEWR...TOO MARGINAL A
SITUATION TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WITH NW FLOW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT
EXPECT A TRUE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...THOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE W IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KGON WHICH WILL LIE TO THE EAST OF A
DEVELOPING LEE SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL 20-25 KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY JUST
DOWNWIND FROM THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO AREA AND ALSO ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW SETS TO REACH 5 FT IN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

000
FXUS61 KALY 040558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY
BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...DENOTED BY A WIND SHIFT INTO
THE W/NW...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS ON THE NW SIDE...IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NW CT. OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WE EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN DUTCHESS CO BEFORE EXITING.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...IN RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW...AND SOME
OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN UPON DRIFTING
SE...BUT MAY REDEVELOP WHEN REACHING THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT...AND EVEN THE NORTHERN BERKS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD
EVEN REACH VALLEY LOCALES N/W OF THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND OR PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THIS REASONING...WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACROSS
NORTHERNMOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC WITHIN THE
VALLEYS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AND FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...WILL ONLY
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY EXPECTED AFTER FROPA.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON RECENT
TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE HUDSON/MOHAWK/CHAMPLAIN
CORRIDORS WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY AOA 4000 FT ASL. THE MAJOR
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW CLOUDS 1500
TO 2500 FT ASL WERE CAUSING MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
IN THAT AREA...AND WITH MVF CIGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND GREEN MTNS OF SOUTHERN VT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORECAST THRU DAYBREAK ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISBY
IN THE MID HUDSON REGION...INCLUDING KPOU...FROM RADIATION FOG.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT KGFL AND
KALB. WINDS WERE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 8 KTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ARE
LIKELY TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VFR MINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT
SOME DURING THE DAY TODAY TO SCT050 UNDER A BKN DECK OF 100-250
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS GONE BY
EVENING UNDER SOME SCTD CIRRUS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY
AND PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO KALB DUE TO THE FUNNELING
EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF -SHRA/-TSRA ESPCLLY IN PM.
TUE/WED...VFR...PSSBL EARLY AM FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBUF 040544
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY WIND DOWN AS THE SYSTEM
WITHDRAWS...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH DAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RETURNING BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GOING FORECAST WORKING OUT PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS EVENING...WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OUT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...WHILE MORE PRONOUNCED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW OVER QUEBEC. HAVE FINE-TUNED THE POP
GRIDS TO KEEP THEM IN CLOSE LINE WITH CURRENT/EXPECTED RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN HAVE INDICATED A MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY PER UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS AND THE 18Z NAM12/GFS RUNS...WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL WIND DOWN A BIT MORE QUICKLY
THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST A FEW NOTCHES IN
MOST PLACES GIVEN CURRENT OBS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME
MODEST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS TO
KEEP THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW IN ITS ENTIRETY...


COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND THE DIURNAL HEATING OF AN EARLY
JULY DAY HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA.  THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS WNY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BUT I FEEL IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
HOWEVER, THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND I
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT I WOULD NOT COUNT
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S...COOL ENOUGH
TO BREAK OUT THE SWEATERS ONCE AGAIN FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER.

ON SATURDAY...FOR MOST OF THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A FINE DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO HOWEVER I AM A BIT MORE CONCERNED. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ALOFT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH TO INFLUENCE MOST OF OUR REGION.  HOWEVER, FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THAT ENERGY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
ERODE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER SATURDAY.  THEREFORE, I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...STILL INDICATING
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY ALL OF THE
FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GENERALLY RAINFREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY BUT STILL COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

BY MONDAY THE NEXT IN A RELENTLESS SERIES OF DIGGING TROUGHS MOVING
INTO THE LOWER LAKES WILL COOL OUR WEATHER DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND WOULD
GIVE US A THREAT OF SHOWERS.  WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
HANGING BACK OVER OUR CWA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL GO CLOSER
TO THE HPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST AND
OUR REGION GETTING INTO A WARMING TREND EARLIER. WE WILL HAVE POPS
NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS PROMISE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH 850 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH AS 19C. MAYBE
SOME RWAL SUMMERY TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO DEPART THE REGION WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUD CONDITIONS...BASES BETWEEN 15 HUNDRED AND 25 HUNDRED FEET ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN NEW YORK
INCLUDING THE KART TAF SITE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
12Z. OTHERWISE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREAT
OF A SHOWER AT KART THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET EAST OF ROCHESTER.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE RIPLEY TO BUFFALO SECTION OF LAKE
ERIE AND FOR THE ENTIRE SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WE WILL EXTENDED THE SODUS BAY TO ST LAWRENCE SECTION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-
         043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SAGE
NEAR TERM...JJR/TAN
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...SAGE

000
FXUS61 KBGM 040540
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROF CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM TRENTON ONTARIO BACK
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE ERIE. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY
TRIGGERING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. UPDATED TO INCLUDED
CHC POPS ACROSS NYS THROUGH 06Z AND SLIGHT CHC FOR FAR SE FA.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CUT OFF LOW OVER SW
QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL COME TO AN END EARLY UPON
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. A SECONDARY WAVE IS FCST TO DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS ERN LK ONTARIO AND NRN NY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY
TRIGGER ANOTHER FEW SHOWERS FOR THE TUG HILL AND WRN MHWK VALLEY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY ADVECTION AND NEG POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DRY WX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE REMANING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO SOME STRATUS AND FOG
IS POSSIBLE. AS DRIER ADVECTION DEEPENS TOWARD MORNING WE ARE
EXPECTING A CLEARING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING NORTH OF THE UPR GTLKS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NNY TONIGHT AND FINALLY BE THE KICKER FOR THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAUGED THE NORTHEAST FOR DAYS. THE UPR LOW
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE...LOCATED OVER SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE SETTING UP IN A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF THE BETTER DAYS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY DECENT DAY
WITH SUNSHINE MIXED WITH FAIR WX CU AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPR 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPR 40S IN OUR VALLEYS.

AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM AND GFS DISAGREE WITH SPEED AND
TIMING OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE NW FLOW.
WE WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER...AND THUS DRIER GFS WHICH HAS LITTLE
MOISTURE RETURN AND MAINTAINS AT LEAST A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. SUNDAY`S FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE AGAIN BE DRY WITH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S.

THE TROF IN THE EAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO START RELOADING SUN NITE
INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NY.
WILL LEAN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TRENDS...BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS A
SIMILAR GENERAL SOLUTION. WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST SUN NITE- MONDAY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD MONDAY
BASED ON DIURNAL STABILITY TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN STICKING POINT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD CONCERNS
THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER NORTHEASTERN
U.S./EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL...OPENING THIS FEATURE UP MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND
MOVING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE EURO MODEL DIGS
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NY STATE...AND IS SLOWER TO LIFT
IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HPC IS STILL SIDING WITH THE
EURO...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL INDICATE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
WEDNESDAY...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RISE.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH ON SATURDAY...SO WE`VE INSERTED A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW FLOW BRINGING SOME MOSITURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND MVFR CIGS AT
A FEW SPOTS. XPCT LTL CHG OVRNGT...FLWD BY HIER CIGS INTO THE VFR
RANGE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LWR LVLS DRY AND MIX OUT. BALANCE OF
THE FCST PDS WILL SEE VFR CONDS AS SOME WEAK SFC RDGG BUILDS IN.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING IFR FOG...MOSTLY AT
KELM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/RRM
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/RRM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 040347
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1147 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS...ALTHOUGH ANY CHANGED WERE MINOR AS THE TIMING IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST WAS EXCELLENT.

WARM MOIST CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION...BUT IT WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDANT ON WINDS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
AWAY FROM NYC AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT GET
RAIN/HEAVY RAIN.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-
END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT
NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT WITH PATCHY FOG A POSSIBLE IMPACT TO
OPERATIONS ACROSS CT/LI.

NOT EXPECTING A FULL SEABREEZE AT JFK ON SATURDAY...BUT RATHER A
BACKING FROM NW TO SW FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE 20 KT GUSTS ON EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SETS TO
REACH 5 FT IN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN NAS DECREASED THIS EVENING...WITH ANY
FURTHER ACTIVITY PRODUCING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 040216
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1016 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY WIND DOWN AS THE SYSTEM
WITHDRAWS...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL EACH DAY. FAIR
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RETURNING BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING FORECAST WORKING OUT PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS EVENING...WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DYING OUT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...WHILE MORE PRONOUNCED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW OVER QUEBEC. HAVE FINE-TUNED THE POP
GRIDS TO KEEP THEM IN CLOSE LINE WITH CURRENT/EXPECTED RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN HAVE INDICATED A MORE RAPID
DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY PER UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS AND THE 18Z NAM12/GFS RUNS...WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL WIND DOWN A BIT MORE QUICKLY
THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST A FEW NOTCHES IN
MOST PLACES GIVEN CURRENT OBS AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
MODEST WESTERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME
MODEST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS TO
KEEP THEM IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW IN ITS ENTIRETY...


COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND THE DIURNAL HEATING OF AN EARLY
JULY DAY HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA.  THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS WNY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BUT I FEEL IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
HOWEVER, THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND I
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT I WOULD NOT COUNT
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S...COOL ENOUGH
TO BREAK OUT THE SWEATERS ONCE AGAIN FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER.

ON SATURDAY...FOR MOST OF THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A FINE DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO HOWEVER I AM A BIT MORE CONCERNED. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ALOFT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH TO INFLUENCE MOST OF OUR REGION.  HOWEVER, FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THAT ENERGY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
ERODE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER SATURDAY.  THEREFORE, I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...STILL INDICATING
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY ALL OF THE
FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GENERALLY RAINFREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY BUT STILL COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

BY MONDAY THE NEXT IN A RELENTLESS SERIES OF DIGGING TROUGHS MOVING
INTO THE LOWER LAKES WILL COOL OUR WEATHER DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND WOULD
GIVE US A THREAT OF SHOWERS.  WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
HANGING BACK OVER OUR CWA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL GO CLOSER
TO THE HPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST AND
OUR REGION GETTING INTO A WARMING TREND EARLIER. WE WILL HAVE POPS
NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS PROMISE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH 850 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH AS 19C. MAYBE
SOME RWAL SUMMERY TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS A RESULT... THE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES THEN EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT UNDER LINGERING STRATOCU BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING TREND LEADS TO IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE RIPLEY TO BUFFALO SECTION OF LAKE
ERIE AND FOR THE ENTIRE SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WE WILL EXTENDED THE SODUS BAY TO ST LAWRENCE SECTION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SAGE
NEAR TERM...JJR/TAN
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SAGE

000
FXUS61 KALY 040151
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
933 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...DENOTED BY A WIND SHIFT INTO
THE W/NW...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS ON THE NW SIDE...IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NW CT. OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WE EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN DUTCHESS CO BEFORE EXITING.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...IN RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW...AND SOME
OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN UPON DRIFTING
SE...BUT MAY REDEVELOP WHEN REACHING THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT...AND EVEN THE NORTHERN BERKS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD
EVEN REACH VALLEY LOCALES N/W OF THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND OR PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THIS REASONING...WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACROSS
NORTHERNMOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC WITHIN THE
VALLEYS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AND FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...WILL ONLY
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY EXPECTED AFTER FROPA.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON RECENT
TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES...WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 7000-9000 FT AGL. MOST SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED E OF THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
STILL IMPACT KPOU THROUGH 03Z/04. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR MAINLY FOR CIGS AT KGFL...AS
SOME LOWER CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY WRAP BACK SOUTHEAST BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 8 KT. ON
SAT...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 KT...ESP AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECT DOWN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...VFR.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER/KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 040143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
943 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...WE WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL OVERPSREAD MUCH OF VT THRU
MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL THEN TEND TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
LATER TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE RGN...BUT A MOIST NW
FLOW COUPLED WITH A TRAILING VORT WILL RESULT IN CONTD CHC OF
SHWRS. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT OUT TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS FOR TONIGHT. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO OTHER CHANGES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE REGION IN GENERAL NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY. VORT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE LIKELY SHOWERS MAINLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DROPPING TO CHANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...VERY LITTLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PROBABLY BE DIURNALLY AND/OR TERRAIN DRIVEN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. BUT...WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERALL CAA ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70. THESE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY GUSTY WITH INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REALLY PICKS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE DRY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SNEAK INTO THE MID 70S AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THESE
TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS A
WELCOME RELIEF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWER...MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SINCE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING... WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THESE DAYS. GMOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MOS AND WARMER GFS EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS 850 MB
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY...AND TO AROUND
17-18 CELSIUS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY TOMORROW
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING
WITH IT NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH IT.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT...WITH ALL TAF SITES
DRY AFT 08Z. LOW CIGS AND BR WILL REMAIN UNTIL 12Z...BEFORE NW
WNDS DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND INCREASE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
ACR THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY
VFR...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH
LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KBGM 040016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
816 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SFC TROF CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM TRENTON ONTARIO BACK
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE ERIE. THIS FEATURE CURRENTLY
TRIGGERING A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. UPDATED TO INCLUDED
CHC POPS ACROSS NYS THROUGH 06Z AND SLIGHT CHC FOR FAR SE FA.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CUT OFF LOW OVER SW
QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL COME TO AN END EARLY UPON
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. A SECONDARY WAVE IS FCST TO DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS ERN LK ONTARIO AND NRN NY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY
TRIGGER ANOTHER FEW SHOWERS FOR THE TUG HILL AND WRN MHWK VALLEY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY ADVECTION AND NEG POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DRY WX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE REMANING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO SOME STRATUS AND FOG
IS POSSIBLE. AS DRIER ADVECTION DEEPENS TOWARD MORNING WE ARE
EXPECTING A CLEARING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING NORTH OF THE UPR GTLKS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NNY TONIGHT AND FINALLY BE THE KICKER FOR THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAUGED THE NORTHEAST FOR DAYS. THE UPR LOW
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE...LOCATED OVER SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE SETTING UP IN A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF THE BETTER DAYS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY DECENT DAY
WITH SUNSHINE MIXED WITH FAIR WX CU AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPR 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPR 40S IN OUR VALLEYS.

AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM AND GFS DISAGREE WITH SPEED AND
TIMING OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE NW FLOW.
WE WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER...AND THUS DRIER GFS WHICH HAS LITTLE
MOISTURE RETURN AND MAINTAINS AT LEAST A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. SUNDAY`S FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE AGAIN BE DRY WITH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S.

THE TROF IN THE EAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO START RELOADING SUN NITE
INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NY.
WILL LEAN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TRENDS...BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS A
SIMILAR GENERAL SOLUTION. WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST SUN NITE- MONDAY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD MONDAY
BASED ON DIURNAL STABILITY TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN STICKING POINT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD CONCERNS
THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER NORTHEASTERN
U.S./EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL...OPENING THIS FEATURE UP MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND
MOVING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE EURO MODEL DIGS
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NY STATE...AND IS SLOWER TO LIFT
IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HPC IS STILL SIDING WITH THE
EURO...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL INDICATE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
WEDNESDAY...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RISE.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH ON SATURDAY...SO WE`VE INSERTED A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ATTM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WHEN A
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT. BY 06Z, ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS. AT KAVP, INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AS ONLY A
TEMPO CONDITION BTW 08Z-12Z. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING, DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED AT KELM, ALTHOUGH INCLUDED
MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG BTW 06Z-13Z. BY MID MORNING SATURDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING IFR FOG...MOSTLY AT
KELM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...RRM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 040001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
GENERAL DECREASING TREND TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
LOTS OF REMAINING BOUNDARIES AS TRIGGERS...BUT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND.

ANOTHER WARM...MOIST NIGHT ON TAP. HOWEVER ANY FOG FORMATION WILL
DEPEND ON WINDS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY AWAY FROM
NYC AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT GET RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-
END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT
NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS IN
THE SHORT TERM. GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT WITH PATCHY FOG A
POSSIBLE IMPACT TO OPERATIONS ACROSS CT/LI.

NOT EXPECTING A FULL SEABREEZE AT JFK ON SATURDAY...BUT RATHER A
BACKING FROM NW TO SW FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE 20 KT GUSTS ON EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SETS TO
REACH 5 FT IN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN NAS DECREASED THIS EVENING...WITH ANY
FURTHER ACTIVITY PRODUCING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/BS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 032347
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
747 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CUT OFF LOW OVER SW
QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL COME TO AN END EARLY UPON
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. A SECONDARY WAVE IS FCST TO DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS ERN LK ONTARIO AND NRN NY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY
TRIGGER ANOTHER FEW SHOWERS FOR THE TUG HILL AND WRN MHWK VALLEY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY ADVECTION AND NEG POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DRY WX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE REMANING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO SOME STRATUS AND FOG
IS POSSIBLE. AS DRIER ADVECTION DEEPENS TOWARD MORNING WE ARE
EXPECTING A CLEARING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING NORTH OF THE UPR GTLKS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NNY TONIGHT AND FINALLY BE THE KICKER FOR THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAUGED THE NORTHEAST FOR DAYS. THE UPR LOW
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE...LOCATED OVER SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE SETTING UP IN A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF THE BETTER DAYS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY DECENT DAY
WITH SUNSHINE MIXED WITH FAIR WX CU AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPR 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPR 40S IN OUR VALLEYS.

AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM AND GFS DISAGREE WITH SPEED AND
TIMING OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE NW FLOW.
WE WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER...AND THUS DRIER GFS WHICH HAS LITTLE
MOISTURE RETURN AND MAINTAINS AT LEAST A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. SUNDAY`S FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE AGAIN BE DRY WITH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S.

THE TROF IN THE EAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO START RELOADING SUN NITE
INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NY.
WILL LEAN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TRENDS...BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS A
SIMILAR GENERAL SOLUTION. WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST SUN NITE- MONDAY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD MONDAY
BASED ON DIURNAL STABILITY TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN STICKING POINT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD CONCERNS
THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER NORTHEASTERN
U.S./EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL...OPENING THIS FEATURE UP MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND
MOVING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE EURO MODEL DIGS
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NY STATE...AND IS SLOWER TO LIFT
IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HPC IS STILL SIDING WITH THE
EURO...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL INDICATE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
WEDNESDAY...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RISE.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH ON SATURDAY...SO WE`VE INSERTED A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ATTM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WHEN A
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT. BY 06Z, ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS. AT KAVP, INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AS ONLY A
TEMPO CONDITION BTW 08Z-12Z. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING, DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED AT KELM, ALTHOUGH INCLUDED
MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG BTW 06Z-13Z. BY MID MORNING SATURDAY, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD WITH JUST
SCATTERED CU AROUND 4K FT.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING IFR FOG...MOSTLY AT
KELM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBUF 032339
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL SHOW A QUICK
REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM WITHDRAWS. THERE WILL
JUST BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING. SO IN GENERAL THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH A HINT OF SUMMERY TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND THE DIURNAL HEATING OF AN EARLY
JULY DAY HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA.  THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS WNY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BUT I FEEL IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
HOWEVER, THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND I
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT I WOULD NOT COUNT
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S...COOL ENOUGH
TO BREAK OUT THE SWEATERS ONCE AGAIN FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER.

ON SATURDAY...FOR MOST OF THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A FINE DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO HOWEVER I AM A BIT MORE CONCERNED. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ALOFT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH TO INFLUENCE MOST OF OUR REGION.  HOWEVER, FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THAT ENERGY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
ERODE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER SATURDAY.  THEREFORE, I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...STILL INDICATING
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY ALL OF THE
FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GENERALLY RAINFREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY BUT STILL COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

BY MONDAY THE NEXT IN A RELENTLESS SERIES OF DIGGING TROUGHS MOVING
INTO THE LOWER LAKES WILL COOL OUR WEATHER DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND WOULD
GIVE US A THREAT OF SHOWERS.  WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
HANGING BACK OVER OUR CWA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL GO CLOSER
TO THE HPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST AND
OUR REGION GETTING INTO A WARMING TREND EARLIER. WE WILL HAVE POPS
NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS PROMISE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH 850 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH AS 19C. MAYBE
SOME RWAL SUMMERY TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS A RESULT... THE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING
SKIES THEN EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT UNDER LINGERING STRATOCU BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED CLEARING TREND LEADS TO IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE RIPLEY TO BUFFALO SECTION OF LAKE
ERIE AND FOR THE ENTIRE SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WE WILL EXTENDED THE SODUS BAY TO ST LAWRENCE SECTION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SAGE
NEAR TERM...TAN
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SAGE

000
FXUS61 KALY 032336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES...WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 7000-9000 FT AGL. MOST SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED E OF THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
STILL IMPACT KPOU THROUGH 03Z/04. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR MAINLY FOR CIGS AT KGFL...AS
SOME LOWER CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY WRAP BACK SOUTHEAST BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 8 KT. ON
SAT...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 KT...ESP AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECT DOWN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...VFR.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL/HELLER
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 032334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND END BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW CONTINUES TO
VERY SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE LOW
CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND WEAKEN FOLLOWING SUNSET. BY
MIDNIGHT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED BEFORE ENDING.
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POPPING UP MORE AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING HAS LIMITED THE INSTABILITY AND ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHERE SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE REGION IN GENERAL NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY. VORT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE LIKELY SHOWERS MAINLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DROPPING TO CHANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...VERY LITTLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PROBABLY BE DIURNALLY AND/OR TERRAIN DRIVEN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. BUT...WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERALL CAA ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70. THESE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY GUSTY WITH INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REALLY PICKS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE DRY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SNEAK INTO THE MID 70S AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THESE
TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS A
WELCOME RELIEF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWER...MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SINCE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING... WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THESE DAYS. GMOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MOS AND WARMER GFS EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS 850 MB
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY...AND TO AROUND
17-18 CELSIUS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY TOMORROW
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING
WITH IT NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH IT.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT...WITH ALL TAF SITES
DRY AFT 08Z. LOW CIGS AND BR WILL REMAIN UNTIL 12Z...BEFORE NW
WNDS DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND INCREASE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
ACR THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY
VFR...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH
LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...DUMONT

000
FXUS61 KBUF 032043
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
443 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL SHOW A QUICK
REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM WITHDRAWS. THERE WILL
JUST BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING. SO IN GENERAL THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH A HINT OF SUMMERY TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND THE DIURNAL HEATING OF AN EARLY
JULY DAY HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA.  THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS WNY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BUT I FEEL IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
HOWEVER, THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND I
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT I WOULD NOT COUNT
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S...COOL ENOUGH
TO BREAK OUT THE SWEATERS ONCE AGAIN FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER.

ON SATURDAY...FOR MOST OF THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A FINE DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO HOWEVER I AM A BIT MORE CONCERNED. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ALOFT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH TO INFLUENCE MOST OF OUR REGION.  HOWEVER, FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THAT ENERGY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
ERODE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER SATURDAY.  THEREFORE, I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...STILL INDICATING
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY ALL OF THE
FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GENERALLY RAINFREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY BUT STILL COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

BY MONDAY THE NEXT IN A RELENTLESS SERIES OF DIGGING TROUGHS MOVING
INTO THE LOWER LAKES WILL COOL OUR WEATHER DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE NAM
AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND WOULD
GIVE US A THREAT OF SHOWERS.  WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME PRETTY BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THIS PERIOD. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
HANGING BACK OVER OUR CWA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL GO CLOSER
TO THE HPC AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST AND
OUR REGION GETTING INTO A WARMING TREND EARLIER. WE WILL HAVE POPS
NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS PROMISE OF UPPER RIDGING ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH 850 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH AS 19C. MAYBE
SOME RWAL SUMMERY TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE DAY.

IN WESTERN NEW YORK WE WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AND OCCASIONALLY TAKE CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR FROM 19Z-23Z.
AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CEILINGS BCMG MVFR AT TIMES
UNDER SC DECK. SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WILL GO IFR BTWN 10Z-12Z FOR
VALLEY FOG.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILING AND VSBY WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS DUE
TO A LARGE RAIN SHIELD CIRCULATING AROUND THAT UPPER LOW. TONIGHT
VSBY SHOULD BE VFR AND CEILING MVFR WITH CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO IFR DUE TO ST DECK.

ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES THAN WE HAVE
SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE RIPLEY TO BUFFALO SECTION OF LAKE
ERIE AND FOR THE ENTIRE SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WE WILL EXTENDED THE SODUS BAY TO ST LAWRENCE SECTION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SAGE
NEAR TERM...TAN
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...TAN
MARINE...SAGE

000
FXUS61 KBTV 032014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND END BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW CONTINUES TO
VERY SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE LOW
CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND WEAKEN FOLLOWING SUNSET. BY
MIDNIGHT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED BEFORE ENDING.
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POPPING UP MORE AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING HAS LIMITED THE INSTABILITY AND ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHERE SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE REGION IN GENERAL NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY. VORT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE LIKELY SHOWERS MAINLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DROPPING TO CHANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...VERY LITTLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PROBABLY BE DIURNALLY AND/OR TERRAIN DRIVEN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. BUT...WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERALL CAA ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70. THESE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY GUSTY WITH INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REALLY PICKS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE DRY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SNEAK INTO THE MID 70S AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THESE
TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS A
WELCOME RELIEF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWER...MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SINCE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING... WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THESE DAYS. GMOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MOS AND WARMER GFS EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS 850 MB
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY...AND TO AROUND
17-18 CELSIUS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR/MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z-06Z ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK
AND KMPV...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AFT 14Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH
LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 032004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY
MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY
BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE... BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS. HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS
ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WELL ON
AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBUF 031946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
PROCESS...BUT A NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT COME UNTIL TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND THE DIURNAL HEATING OF AN EARLY
JULY DAY HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA.  THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS WNY THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BUT I FEEL IT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
HOWEVER, THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND I
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT I WOULD NOT COUNT
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY LATE
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 50S...COOL ENOUGH
TO BREAK OUT THE SWEATERS ONCE AGAIN FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER.

ON SATURDAY...FOR MOST OF THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE A FINE DAY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO HOWEVER I AM A BIT MORE CONCERNED. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE ALOFT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TOO FAR NORTH TO INFLUENCE MOST OF OUR REGION.  HOWEVER, FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THAT ENERGY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
ERODE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER AND LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER SATURDAY.  THEREFORE, I
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE IMPROVING TREND WILL CONTINUE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY WILL START OUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE RACING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ANY FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. DESPITE THE RETURN OF AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO MOST AREAS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THESE VALUES WILL BE SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN
THAT THIS YEARS HOLIDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLEST IN THE PAST 25
YEARS. IN FACT...A LIGHT JACKET OR SWEATER MAY BE IN ORDER DURING
SATURDAY EVENINGS FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

ON SUNDAY...SOME POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL PUMP/AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (ROCKIES). IN RESPONSE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DEEPEN. OUR REGION SHOULD BE
ABLE TO EXPERIENCE A DECENT DAY THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C ON
SUNDAY WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST
SITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EASE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK WHILE TROFFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...THIS PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY FEATURE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYS NEXT
WEEK...BUT A PASSING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING US THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY AIRMASS TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE DAY.

IN WESTERN NEW YORK WE WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AND OCCASIONALLY TAKE CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR FROM 19Z-23Z.
AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CEILINGS BCMG MVFR AT TIMES
UNDER SC DECK. SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WILL GO IFR BTWN 10Z-12Z FOR
VALLEY FOG.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILING AND VSBY WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS DUE
TO A LARGE RAIN SHIELD CIRCULATING AROUND THAT UPPER LOW. TONIGHT
VSBY SHOULD BE VFR AND CEILING MVFR WITH CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO IFR DUE TO ST DECK.

ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW...DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST SATURDAY...ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE LAKES.

THE LIGHT WINDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH WESTERLIES DEVELOPING...RESULTING IN WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON BOTH LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRESH WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH WAVES REMAINING CLOSE TO 4 FEET ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF BOTH LAKES AND AS A RESULT WE WILL MENTION A RANGE OF
3-5 FT WAVES IN THE UPDATED LAKE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT STAY
GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SAGE
NEAR TERM...TAN
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...TAN
MARINE...SAGE

000
FXUS61 KBGM 031928
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CUT OFF LOW OVER SW
QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL COME TO AN END EARLY UPON
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. A SECONDARY WAVE IS FCST TO DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS ERN LK ONTARIO AND NRN NY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY
TRIGGER ANOTHER FEW SHOWERS FOR THE TUG HILL AND WRN MHWK VALLEY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY ADVECTION AND NEG POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE DRY WX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE REMANING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO SOME STRATUS AND FOG
IS POSSIBLE. AS DRIER ADVECTION DEEPENS TOWARD MORNING WE ARE
EXPECTING A CLEARING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING NORTH OF THE UPR GTLKS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NNY TONIGHT AND FINALLY BE THE KICKER FOR THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAUGED THE NORTHEAST FOR DAYS. THE UPR LOW
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE...LOCATED OVER SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE SETTING UP IN A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WHICH SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF THE BETTER DAYS WE`VE EXPERIENCED
IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY DECENT DAY
WITH SUNSHINE MIXED WITH FAIR WX CU AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPR 70S AND LOW DEWPOINTS. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPR 40S IN OUR VALLEYS.

AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...THE NAM AND GFS DISAGREE WITH SPEED AND
TIMING OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE NW FLOW.
WE WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER...AND THUS DRIER GFS WHICH HAS LITTLE
MOISTURE RETURN AND MAINTAINS AT LEAST A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS. SUNDAY`S FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE AGAIN BE DRY WITH PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S.

THE TROF IN THE EAST IS THEN EXPECTED TO START RELOADING SUN NITE
INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NY.
WILL LEAN WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TRENDS...BUT EVEN THE NAM HAS A
SIMILAR GENERAL SOLUTION. WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST SUN NITE- MONDAY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD MONDAY
BASED ON DIURNAL STABILITY TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN STICKING POINT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD CONCERNS
THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER NORTHEASTERN
U.S./EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL...OPENING THIS FEATURE UP MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND
MOVING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE EURO MODEL DIGS
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NY STATE...AND IS SLOWER TO LIFT
IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HPC IS STILL SIDING WITH THE
EURO...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL INDICATE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
WEDNESDAY...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RISE.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH ON SATURDAY...SO WE`VE INSERTED A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...AFTER PREVAILING VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS A
STRATUS CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS. LACK OF CLEARING SHOULD PREVENT MUCH
RADIATION FOG FROM FORMING...SO WE`VE OPTED TO KEEP THINGS AS MVFR
AT KELM.

SATURDAY...WE`RE ANTICIPATING RAPID IMPROVEMENT BY MID-
MORNING...AS MUCH DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD
DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING IFR FOG...MOSTLY AT
KELM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND END BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW CONTINUES TO
VERY SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE LOW
CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND WEAKEN FOLLOWING SUNSET. BY
MIDNIGHT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED BEFORE ENDING.
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POPPING UP MORE AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING HAS LIMITED THE INSTABILITY AND ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHERE SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE REGION IN GENERAL NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY. VORT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE LIKELY SHOWERS MAINLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DROPPING TO CHANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...VERY LITTLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PROBABLY BE DIURNALLY AND/OR TERRAIN DRIVEN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. BUT...WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERALL CAA ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70. THESE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY GUSTY WITH INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REALLY PICKS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE DRY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SNEAK INTO THE MID 70S AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THESE
TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS A
WELCOME RELIEF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LOW WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER
OF UPPER LOW. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR/MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z-06Z ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK
AND KMPV...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AFT 14Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH
LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KOKX 031857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PULLS
OFFSHORE. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO SLIDE ASSIST IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. SFC TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOWER 60S. RAINFALL MAY BRIEFLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S.
MUCAPES IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE CURRENTLY AVERAGING 1000-1500 J/KG
AND COULD GO UP IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFTED INDEX IS ALSO RANGING
FROM -2 TO -4C. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT PWATS ARE 1 TO 1.25"...
INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN. KOKX PICKED
UP 0.61" OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND THIS IS A GOOD
INDICATION OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. NOT EVERY PLACE WILL
SEE RAIN...BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD GET SOME HEAVY RAIN THAT WOULD
RESULT IN LOCAL URBAN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND SMALL RIVERS/STREAMS COULD EXPERIENCE RISES.

SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH ANOTHER WARM...
MOIST NIGHT ON TAP...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
AWAY FROM NYC AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT GET
RAIN/HEAVY RAIN.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-
END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT
NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFT WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION THRU 21Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO CARRY TSRA AT ANY ONE TERMINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF A CB. EXPECT DRYING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORT WAVE TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.

SFC TROUGH OVER THE AREA AT 18Z WILL ALLOW WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS
TO COME OUT OF THE SW...BUT THEN GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE W
BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...W/NW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUN WITH W WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT AFTER 13Z. A FEW CU AROUND 5 KFT DEVELOPING BY AFT.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE 20 KT GUSTS ON EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF OVER AN INCH...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 031838
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
238 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES PIVOTING AROUND A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL INTERACT WITH AN HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFT WILL
PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. OLD FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDED FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LI...NECESSITATING AN FLS FOR
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING. THIS SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED EVENT.

SUBSIDENCE AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION
TOWARD EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF BETWEEN 75 AND 80...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY PRECIP ENDS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND
WITH DRYING OUT OF VERTICAL COLUMN LATE. A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT WITH LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND RISING HEIGHTS LATER IN THE DAY EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL SUPPRESSED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TAKING A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...FAIR WX WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SINCE IT IS TOUGH TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHC SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONFINED
TO THE AFTN/EVE HOURS EACH DAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PARKED THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG IT FROM TIME
TO TIME. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THEY WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
THAT WILL BE SPARED FROM ANY EFFECTS FROM THEM.

LOW PRES WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON WED/WED NIGHT WITH ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFT WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION THRU 21Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO CARRY TSRA AT ANY ONE TERMINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF A CB. EXPECT DRYING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORT WAVE TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.

SFC TROUGH OVER THE AREA AT 18Z WILL ALLOW WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS
TO COME OUT OF THE SW...BUT THEN GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE W
BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...W/NW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUN WITH W WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT AFTER 13Z. A FEW CU AROUND 5 KFT DEVELOPING BY AFT.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...AND SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES
FOR MONDAY AND REMAINS INTO TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...THEN NORTHWEST SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS DO INCREASE SATURDAY AND MAY
BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS NEARING 20 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH THIS AFT...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW

000
FXUS61 KBUF 031829
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
229 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
PROCESS...BUT A NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT COME UNTIL TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DECREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VIS AND WV
IMAGERY SUGGESTS BULF OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL
STAY EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IF WE COMBINE THAT
FACT WITH THE COOLER MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO,
WE SHOULD ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY. REST
OF NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PERSISTENT UPPER LOW FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF OPENING AND LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM CONVEYOR WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO OUR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. ANOTHER
AREA OF INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS ONE LAST VORT LOBE
AND COOL POOL ALOFT ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS LATER IN THE DAY.

THE PATTERN BECOME MUCH MORE QUIESCENT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ANOTHER LOW DROPS INTO THE BROAD
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL AFFECT
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CHANCE POPS FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT SHOULD LEAVE THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
FREE OF PRECIP.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...THE COOL SPOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO TUG HILL AND WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE
LAKE ONTARIO PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS. SOME VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE IMPROVING TREND WILL CONTINUE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SATURDAY WILL START OUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE RACING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ANY FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. DESPITE THE RETURN OF AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO MOST AREAS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THESE VALUES WILL BE SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN
THAT THIS YEARS HOLIDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLEST IN THE PAST 25
YEARS. IN FACT...A LIGHT JACKET OR SWEATER MAY BE IN ORDER DURING
SATURDAY EVENINGS FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

ON SUNDAY...SOME POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE OFF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL PUMP/AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (ROCKIES). IN RESPONSE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL DEEPEN. OUR REGION SHOULD BE
ABLE TO EXPERIENCE A DECENT DAY THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. H85 TEMPS CLOSE TO 10C ON
SUNDAY WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST
SITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY EASE OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK WHILE TROFFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...THIS PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY FEATURE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYS NEXT
WEEK...BUT A PASSING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING US THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER...MORE TYPICAL SUMMERY AIRMASS TO MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE DAY.

IN WESTERN NEW YORK WE WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AND OCCASIONALLY TAKE CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR FROM 19Z-23Z.
AFTER 23Z CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CEILINGS BCMG MVFR AT TIMES
UNDER SC DECK. SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WILL GO IFR BTWN 10Z-12Z FOR
VALLEY FOG.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILING AND VSBY WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS DUE
TO A LARGE RAIN SHIELD CIRCULATING AROUND THAT UPPER LOW. TONIGHT
VSBY SHOULD BE VFR AND CEILING MVFR WITH CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO IFR DUE TO ST DECK.

ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW...DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST SATURDAY...ALLOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE LAKES.

THE LIGHT WINDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH WESTERLIES DEVELOPING...RESULTING IN WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON BOTH LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRESH WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH WAVES REMAINING CLOSE TO 4 FEET ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF BOTH LAKES AND AS A RESULT WE WILL MENTION A RANGE OF
3-5 FT WAVES IN THE UPDATED LAKE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WIND AND WAVE
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT STAY
GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
         EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TAN/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH/WCH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TAN
MARINE...TAN/TMA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031826
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
226 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF
JULY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE
NOTED...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE AND THE OTHER OVER
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST...DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE AREA DESPITE SOME COOLING ALOFT...SO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
ANY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WELL EAST OF THE AREA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SMALL. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED...WITH NORTHERN NEW YORK SEEING THE BEST CHANCE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO STABILIZE...AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND WITH LOSS OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THUS
AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AND THE
FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AREA FINALLY GETS INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN. DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. UPPER LOW
WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER OF UPPER LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR/MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z-06Z ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK
AND KMPV...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AFT 14Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH
LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBGM 031735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OUR DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE TODAY, CONTINUING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN ON
SATURDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FCST IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. LATEST RUC/NAM MODELS
SUGGEST MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE CLOSED UPR LOW POISED OVER THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCIAL BORDER. SOME MIXING AND THINNING OF THE
CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR SB HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE
WEAK DESTABILIZATION WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME A SLIGHT
MIDLVL CAP BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH THE ADDED FORCING.

THE MORNING UPDATE WAS MADE TO JUST FINE TUNE SOME OF THE WX
TIMING. LITTLE COVERAGE ON THE RADAR RIGHT NOW...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS DOWN TO ONLY SLGHT CHC/ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY...FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-NMRS SHRA/TS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF UPR WAVE...IT SEEMS LIKE THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA STANDS THE BEST SHOT AT ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT AND MORE COVERAGE TODAY. SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS
LOW...BUT WEAK WIND FIELDS, AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
SUGGESTS SLOW MOVING HVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WITH A MINOR THREAT
FOR FLASH AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE, URBAN FLOODING INTO THE EVENING.
DUE TO ISOLATED POSSIBLITY OF FF...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME UNLESS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND A CERTAIN
AREA CAN BE BETTER DEFINED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
INITIAL WV PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA DRG THE AFTN WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS EXPECTED ACRS THE EAST THRU MIDNIGHT. HV INDICATED A DCRS IN
POPS ACRS THE FINGER LKS AND PORTIONS OF NEPA EARLY IN THE EVNG AS
MOST OF THE FRCG WILL BE GONE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION THIS
EVNG BUT NOT ENUF TO WARRANT AN INCRS IN POPS FM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.

AS PCPN WINDS DOWN ANOTHER UL WV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR NRN ONTARIO
WILL SKIRT THRU AFT MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE ENUF TO KEEP CHC POPS
GOING OVR NERN ZONES THRU RMNDR OF TONIGHT BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN WITH IT. SHOWERS WILL LKLY BE CONFINED NORTH
OF A SYRACUSE TO DELHI LINE OVRNGT.

WILL LV SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY ACRS THE FA AS REGION LOOKS TO BE IN
BTWN UL SYSTEMS. WILL SEE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SMALL CHC FOR SHOWERS
OVR THE FAR NE DRG THE MRNG...CLRNG OUT BY AFTN. MAY ACTUALLY BE
FORTUNATE ENUF TO SEE SOME SUN DRG THE DAY. THUS HV GONE A TAD WRMR
ON TEMPS DRG THE AFTN AS HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY ACRS THE FA.

DRY WX PERSISTS THRU SAT NGT AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLRNG BFR
NEXT WV DROPS IN. MODELS HVG A TUFF TIME HANDLING PATTERN AFT 06Z
SUNDAY. 00Z NAM BRINGS ELONGATED UL TROF THRU CWA SUN MRNG/AFTN WITH
ADDN/L CHCS FOR SHRA/TSTMS WHICH IS REFLECTED IN MET NUMBERS. AT THE
SAME TIME..GFS CLOSES OFF UPPER LVL LOW OVR ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER ON
SUNDAY WITH LITTLE FRCG MVG INTO FA UNTIL LATE SUN NGT AND PERHAPS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON MRNG. THUS SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN POPS
FOR LATTER PORTIONS OF THE SHORT TERM PD. EURO LOOKS TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH NAM AS UL TROF AXIS MVS THRU ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
SECONDARY WV DROPPING IN LATE SUN NGT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN NAM
INDICATES BUT ENTIRELY DIFFERENT PATTERN THAN WHAT IS BEING
ADVERTISED BY GFS.

IF ANYTHING...MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS POP UP ACRS THE NORTH ON SUN AFTN
IN ASSOC WITH UL FEATURE. HWVR VRY LITTLE QPF BEING PAINTED BY NAM
OR EURO AT THIS POINT. ALSO APPEARS AS THO SYSTEM OVR OH VLY WILL
NOW SKIRT SOUTH OF FA AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
HERE. THUS...OVERALL SOLNS POINT TO A FAIRLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY SO
WILL RMV PCPN MENTION COMPLETELY AT THIS POINT...CONTINUING DRY INTO
THE OVRNGT HRS. WILL ALSO BUMP TEMPS UP DRG THE AFTN ON
SUNDAY...STILL BLO NORMAL BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPCHG 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN STICKING POINT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD CONCERNS
THE ULTIMATE AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER NORTHEASTERN
U.S./EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE MODEL...OPENING THIS FEATURE UP MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND
MOVING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE EURO MODEL DIGS
THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS NY STATE...AND IS SLOWER TO LIFT
IT OUT BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. HPC IS STILL SIDING WITH THE
EURO...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL INDICATE SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY
WEDNESDAY...AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RISE.

LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL...WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THAN WE`VE SEEN
LATELY (HIGHS INTO THE 80S). AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD APPROACH ON SATURDAY...SO WE`VE INSERTED A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.

TONIGHT...AFTER PREVAILING VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING...LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS A
STRATUS CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS. LACK OF CLEARING SHOULD PREVENT MUCH
RADIATION FOG FROM FORMING...SO WE`VE OPTED TO KEEP THINGS AS MVFR
AT KELM.

SATURDAY...WE`RE ANTICIPATING RAPID IMPROVEMENT BY MID-
MORNING...AS MUCH DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD
DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KT TONIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN TO 10-15 KT SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING IFR FOG...MOSTLY AT
KELM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KALY 031735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.  MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE...
BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS.  HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP
FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME.  CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WELL ON AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...JPV/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 031728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD MITIGATE ABOVE FACTORS AND STILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.  MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE...
BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS.  HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP
FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME.  CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WELL ON AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK