[top]
000
FXUS61 KRLX 041740
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE
INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...ARE STARTING TO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY/CENTRAL OHIO...WITH PRECIPITATION ALREADY REACHING
PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY IS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FLOW
CHANGES...THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SOME WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT THAT BY MID
MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. BUT THE BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVING ITS USUALLY 3 HOUR TIMING LAG. THE OTHER MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...AS ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER
MODELS...CANADIAN....SREF ETC. SO HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE POPS. SO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS BUT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
THE POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ON THE VERGE OF EXITING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE HELD JUST UNDER THE GUIDANCE...NOT SOME MUCH
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...BUT WITH THE
THICKENING CIRRUS TODAY...FELT THE CLOUDS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD
THE READINGS DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES. SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY WELL
CLUSTERED AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE MORNING PRECIPITATION...BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT DRY
WEATHER REMAINS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON MONDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION AFTER 20Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. BULK OF
PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KI43 TO KEKN. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
15Z BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...SL/ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
[top]
000
FXUS61 KCLE 041649
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1249 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO DELAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. NOT ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED THAT NOTHING
WILL MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST OHIO...HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS COMING FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA AND NO MUCH SEEMS TO BE GOING ON IN THAT AREA
BASED ON MTR`S. THE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE THICKENING ON SCHEDULE.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY IN THE CLE AREA.
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA STILL NOT READY TO PULL OUT. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL OF THE COUNTRY STARTS TO FLATTEN. SHOWERS/STORMS
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS APPEAR TOO STRONG DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE SURFACE SYSTEMS I
WOULD NORMALLY NOT WORRY ABOUT ANY SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA BUT
THERE IS A NICE JET PROGGED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY/THIS
EVENING AND WE WILL GET INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OUT OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUT WILL
MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PROBABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW ELSEWHERE. IN ANY CASE...VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR ENOUGH RAIN TO WASH OUT ANY FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
MID 70S... AND IT COULD FEEL A BIT COOL TODAY IN THE SHADE AND
WHEN/WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE THICKER. WENT WITH WARMER NAM MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR SUNDAY. JET ALOFT SLIDING EAST AND UPPER RIDGE
TO THE WEST FLATTENING OUT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT. SURFACE
RIDGING LIKELY FROM THE PLAINS STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TOO MUCH NORTH FLOW AS THEY DEEPEN THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST TOO MUCH. FORECAST MAX TEMP IS
A COMPROMISE OF GFS/NAM.
YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT.
NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING AND IT IS NOT OBVIOUS TO ME WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ANY REAL IMPACT ON TEMPS OTHER THAN TO TEMPER THE RETURN TO
NORMAL JULY READINGS. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL INTO MID WEEK. FORECAST WILL BE DRY INTO MID WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING WARMER
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY CLIMB
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS DISTURBANCE BUT I EXPECT ALL TAF
SITES TO REMAIN DRY AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD. CIGS WILL BE
LOWEST NEAR FDY AND PERHAPS MFD BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. ELSEWHERE
SITES SHOULD ONLY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS. COULD
BE SOME FOG NEAR DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES AWAY FROM THE LAKE BUT I
ONLY TOOK SITES DOWN TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM SOME EARLY MORNING FOG EACH MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
TIL 3PM. HAD A COUPLE REPORTS OF 4 FOOT WAVES. THE LAKE WILL BE
CHOPPY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CALM DOWN QUICKLY AS
WINDS START TO COME AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.
BY EVENING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SW AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS
DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE S OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME W TO
NW SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE EARLY TUESDAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK MAINTAINING THE N FLOW. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...LEINS
[top]
000
FXUS61 KILN 041455
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ILL MOVING E THROUGH IND WILL START
PRECIPITAING OVER CWA BY NOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD
BY A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE CLOUD SHIELD IS ALREADY INTO ERN CWA AND
LIMITING TEMPERATURE RISES. RAIN COOLED AIRMASS WILL BE OVER SRN
AND SWRN CWA THROUGH THE DAY SO HIGHS HERE WILL BE HELD BACK EVEN
MORE.
MODELS ARE PROGGING THE SHOWERS TO AFFECT SRN CWA MORE THAN NORTH
TODAY AND I AGREE BUT THINK THAT THERE WOULD STILL BE A CHANCE IN
THE NORTH. PREVIOUS FCST WAS A BIT TOO QUICK AND/OR PESSIMISTIC
WITH SPREADING SHOWERS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS WOULD
INDICATE. I ACTUALLY ENDED UP SHAVING POPS HERE A BIT...AND
INCREASED THEM IN THE SOUTH. THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE NOSED UP
AGAINST THE EWD MOVING H7 RIDGE. THIS RIDGE HAS A NW-SE
ORIENTATION EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN GETS WASHED OUT BY THE
DEEPENING LOW AT THIS LEVEL OVER THE UPEPR MIDWEST AT 0Z TONIGHT.
AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE SEWD MOVING LOW...WITH
ALL OF THE UPWARD MOTION PROGGED TO BE ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF IT.
THUNDER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND I KEPT
PREVIOUS THINKING OF LEAVING OUT FOR TODAY. MAY RE-VISIT THAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE IN AND KY COUNTIES SW OF CINCY
METRO...BUT DOUBT THAT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER WILL BE AROUND GIVEN
COOL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL BE ONGOING EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY DEVELOPMENT. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER NUMBERS
FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BUT THEN WENT CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN QUIESCENT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM
UP WILL COME AFTER THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER FOG AND MIST WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL CLOUD UP
RATHER QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE TAF SITES BY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE
FOR KDAY/KILN/KCVG/KLUK GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CINCINNATI STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...MORE MOISTURE...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. ADDING IFR CONDITIONS EXPLICITLY TO LATER FORECASTS IS
CERTAINLY AN OPTION.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FOR HOW MUCH RAIN AND DEGRADED AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT COLUMBUS...SO DID NOT HIT THE
FORECAST TOO HARD THERE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
GETS CLOSER...AS EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER
00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KCLE 041434
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1034 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO DELAY THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. NOT ABSOLUTELY CONVINCED THAT NOTHING
WILL MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST OHIO...HOWEVER...THE FLOW IS COMING FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA AND NO MUCH SEEMS TO BE GOING ON IN THAT AREA
BASED ON MTR`S. THE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE THICKENING ON SCHEDULE.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY IN THE CLE AREA.
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA STILL NOT READY TO PULL OUT. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL OF THE COUNTRY STARTS TO FLATTEN. SHOWERS/STORMS
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS APPEAR TOO STRONG DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE SURFACE SYSTEMS I
WOULD NORMALLY NOT WORRY ABOUT ANY SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA BUT
THERE IS A NICE JET PROGGED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY/THIS
EVENING AND WE WILL GET INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OUT OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUT WILL
MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PROBABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW ELSEWHERE. IN ANY CASE...VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR ENOUGH RAIN TO WASH OUT ANY FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
MID 70S... AND IT COULD FEEL A BIT COOL TODAY IN THE SHADE AND
WHEN/WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE THICKER. WENT WITH WARMER NAM MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR SUNDAY. JET ALOFT SLIDING EAST AND UPPER RIDGE
TO THE WEST FLATTENING OUT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT. SURFACE
RIDGING LIKELY FROM THE PLAINS STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TOO MUCH NORTH FLOW AS THEY DEEPEN THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST TOO MUCH. FORECAST MAX TEMP IS
A COMPROMISE OF GFS/NAM.
YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT.
NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING AND IT IS NOT OBVIOUS TO ME WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ANY REAL IMPACT ON TEMPS OTHER THAN TO TEMPER THE RETURN TO
NORMAL JULY READINGS. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL INTO MID WEEK. FORECAST WILL BE DRY INTO MID WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING WARMER
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY CLIMB
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT ALL
SITES TO BE VFR BY 13Z. AFTER THAT...JUST A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. MAIN PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD ONLY GET
AS FAR N AS CENTRAL OH KEEPING ALL TAF SITES DRY. W TO NW FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW PASSES.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUN THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
TIL 3PM. HAD A COUPLE REPORTS OF 4 FOOT WAVES. THE LAKE WILL BE
CHOPPY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CALM DOWN QUICKLY AS
WINDS START TO COME AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY.
BY EVENING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SW AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS
DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE S OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME W TO
NW SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE EARLY TUESDAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK MAINTAINING THE N FLOW. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...LEINS
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041350
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
950 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TOWARD THE
MASON DIXON LINE. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE RIDGES
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA EXPECT AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY AS ONLY CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED.
AS FOR TONIGHT...BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-70 HAVING A CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY
SHOWERS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA TONIGHT. 06Z NAM MODEL AND 00Z ECMWF RUN SHOWS LESS OF A
CHANCE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY WARMER NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND BARELY CLIP CWA WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND RIDGES. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD EAST
BY LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
BY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO POPS IN FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT PREVALENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
PERIOD.
RECENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
TODAY.
AS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT MAY BRING MVFR
SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS I-70 AND SO KZZV AND KMGW MAY BE AFFECTED
THEN. THOSE TWO SITES MAY BE THE ONLY ONES TO BE AFFECTED BY MVFR
FOG OR STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY 6-10 KTS TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 041324
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE
INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...ARE STARTING TO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY/CENTRAL OHIO...WITH PRECIPITATION ALREADY REACHING
PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY IS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FLOW
CHANGES...THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SOME WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT THAT BY MID
MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. BUT THE BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVING ITS USUALLY 3 HOUR TIMING LAG. THE OTHER MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...AS ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER
MODELS...CANADIAN....SREF ETC. SO HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE POPS. SO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS BUT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
THE POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ON THE VERGE OF EXITING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE HELD JUST UNDER THE GUIDANCE...NOT SOME MUCH
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...BUT WITH THE
THICKENING CIRRUS TODAY...FELT THE CLOUDS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD
THE READINGS DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES. SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY WELL
CLUSTERED AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE MORNING PRECIPITATION...BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT DRY
WEATHER REMAINS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON MONDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL LINGERING AND THEY SHOULD
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY BACKS AROUND
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. EXPECT
THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BEFORE NOON TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z...AS ANY LINGERING RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD
BE GONE...AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER SRN KY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AROUND 00Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
INTO THE HTS AREA. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z WITH HTS/CRW/BKW AND
PERHAPS EVEN PKB IMPACTED WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER 6Z...THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE WESTERN SITES AFTER 9Z.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...SL/ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KCLE 041130
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA STILL NOT READY TO PULL OUT. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL OF THE COUNTRY STARTS TO FLATTEN. SHOWERS/STORMS
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS APPEAR TOO STRONG DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE SURFACE SYSTEMS I
WOULD NORMALLY NOT WORRY ABOUT ANY SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA BUT
THERE IS A NICE JET PROGGED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY/THIS
EVENING AND WE WILL GET INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OUT OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUT WILL
MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PROBABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW ELSEWHERE. IN ANY CASE...VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR ENOUGH RAIN TO WASH OUT ANY FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
MID 70S... AND IT COULD FEEL A BIT COOL TODAY IN THE SHADE AND
WHEN/WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE THICKER. WENT WITH WARMER NAM MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR SUNDAY. JET ALOFT SLIDING EAST AND UPPER RIDGE
TO THE WEST FLATTENING OUT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT. SURFACE
RIDGING LIKELY FROM THE PLAINS STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TOO MUCH NORTH FLOW AS THEY DEEPEN THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST TOO MUCH. FORECAST MAX TEMP IS
A COMPROMISE OF GFS/NAM.
YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT.
NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING AND IT IS NOT OBVIOUS TO ME WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ANY REAL IMPACT ON TEMPS OTHER THAN TO TEMPER THE RETURN TO
NORMAL JULY READINGS. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL INTO MID WEEK. FORECAST WILL BE DRY INTO MID WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING WARMER
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY CLIMB
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT ALL
SITES TO BE VFR BY 13Z. AFTER THAT...JUST A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. MAIN PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD ONLY GET
AS FAR N AS CENTRAL OH KEEPING ALL TAF SITES DRY. W TO NW FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW PASSES.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUN THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE CONTINUE TO COME DOWN WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AND WILL
NEED NO HEADLINES FOR A CHANGE. BY EVENING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE S OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME W TO NW SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING THE N FLOW. NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
000
FXUS61 KILN 041051
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS IOWA AND KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS IT DOES A LOW WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO KENTUCKY.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM OUT WEST AND EXPECT
THEM TO CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST.
AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL. MODELS ARE FORECASTING LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
ADVANCING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TODAY.
HOWEVER FELT THAT MET MOS WENT TOO COOL WHILE GFS MOS SEEMED A
BIT WARM. WENT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL BE ONGOING EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY DEVELOPMENT. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER NUMBERS
FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BUT THEN WENT CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN QUIESCENT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM
UP WILL COME AFTER THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER FOG AND MIST WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL CLOUD UP
RATHER QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE TAF SITES BY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE
FOR KDAY/KILN/KCVG/KLUK GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CINCINNATI STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...MORE MOISTURE...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. ADDING IFR CONDITIONS EXPLICITLY TO LATER FORECASTS IS
CERTAINLY AN OPTION.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FOR HOW MUCH RAIN AND DEGRADED AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT COLUMBUS...SO DID NOT HIT THE
FORECAST TOO HARD THERE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
GETS CLOSER...AS EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER
00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 041027
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
627 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY IS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FLOW
CHANGES...THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SOME WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT THAT BY MID
MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. BUT THE BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVING ITS USUALLY 3 HOUR TIMING LAG. THE OTHER MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...AS ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER
MODELS...CANADIAN....SREF ETC. SO HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE POPS. SO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS BUT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
THE POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ON THE VERGE OF EXITING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE HELD JUST UNDER THE GUIDANCE...NOT SOME MUCH
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...BUT WITH THE
THICKENING CIRRUS TODAY...FELT THE CLOUDS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD
THE READINGS DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES. SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY WELL
CLUSTERED AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE MORNING PRECIPITATION...BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT DRY
WEATHER REMAINS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON MONDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL LINGERING AND THEY SHOULD
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY BACKS AROUND
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. EXPECT
THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BEFORE NOON TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z...AS ANY LINGERING RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD
BE GONE...AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER SRN KY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AROUND 00Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
INTO THE HTS AREA. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z WITH HTS/CRW/BKW AND
PERHAPS EVEN PKB IMPACTED WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER 6Z...THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE WESTERN SITES AFTER 9Z.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KILN 040846
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS IOWA AND KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS IT DOES A LOW WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO KENTUCKY.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM OUT WEST AND EXPECT
THEM TO CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST.
AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL. MODELS ARE FORECASTING LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
ADVANCING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TODAY.
HOWEVER FELT THAT MET MOS WENT TOO COOL WHILE GFS MOS SEEMED A
BIT WARM. WENT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS FOR LOWS
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SHOWERS MAY STILL BE ONGOING EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME CLEARING.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS WILL INDUCE A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
NORTH. BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY DEVELOPMENT. LEANED TOWARDS WARMER NUMBERS
FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BUT THEN WENT CLOSER TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN QUIESCENT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM
UP WILL COME AFTER THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALREADY SEEING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AT THE CINCINNATI
LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY AT WILMINGTON AS WELL.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ITS TREK INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
IN FRONT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND MOVE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE STEADY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE LEAST LIKELY...THOUGH STILL
POSSIBLE...AT THE COLUMBUS FORECAST SITES. HOWEVER...THE
CINCINNATI SITES LOOK TO EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. ADDING IFR CONDITIONS
EXPLICITLY TO LATER FORECASTS IS CERTAINLY AN OPTION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
GETS CLOSER...AS EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR VSBYS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 040813
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY IS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FLOW
CHANGES...THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SOME WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT THAT BY MID
MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. BUT THE BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVING ITS USUALLY 3 HOUR TIMING LAG. THE OTHER MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...AS ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER
MODELS...CANADIAN....SREF ETC. SO HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE POPS. SO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS BUT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
THE POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ON THE VERGE OF EXITING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE HELD JUST UNDER THE GUIDANCE...NOT SOME MUCH
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...BUT WITH THE
THICKENING CIRRUS TODAY...FELT THE CLOUDS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD
THE READINGS DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES. SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY WELL
CLUSTERED AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE MORNING PRECIPITATION...BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT DRY
WEATHER REMAINS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON MONDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL LINGERING AND THEY SHOULD
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY BACKS AROUND
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING AT CKB AND EKN. ALTHOUGH IF THE
CLOUDS DO BREAK BEFORE SUN UP...VISIBILITIES COULD QUICKLY FALL TO
MVFR OR IFR LEVELS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GONE...BUT THE CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS.
WHILE IT IS THIN...THERE IS ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED
WITH THE CIRRUS TO LIMIT THE FOG BUT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY...INITIALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z AND THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES EAST INTO THE AREA
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER SRN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AROUND 00Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
INTO THE HTS AREA. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z WITH HTS/CRW/BKW AND
PERHAPS EVEN PKB IMPACTED WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL GO...BUT IT LOOKS FOR CERTAIN TO IMPACT THE SRN SITES.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KCLE 040755
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SHOWERS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA STILL NOT READY TO PULL OUT. SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH WHILE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL OF THE COUNTRY STARTS TO FLATTEN. SHOWERS/STORMS
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL DIVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. MODELS APPEAR TOO STRONG DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE SURFACE SYSTEMS I
WOULD NORMALLY NOT WORRY ABOUT ANY SHOWERS GETTING INTO THE AREA BUT
THERE IS A NICE JET PROGGED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY/THIS
EVENING AND WE WILL GET INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OUT OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUT WILL
MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PROBABILITY IS JUST TOO LOW ELSEWHERE. IN ANY CASE...VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR ENOUGH RAIN TO WASH OUT ANY FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
MID 70S... AND IT COULD FEEL A BIT COOL TODAY IN THE SHADE AND
WHEN/WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE THICKER. WENT WITH WARMER NAM MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS MID CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR SUNDAY. JET ALOFT SLIDING EAST AND UPPER RIDGE
TO THE WEST FLATTENING OUT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT. SURFACE
RIDGING LIKELY FROM THE PLAINS STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE TOO MUCH NORTH FLOW AS THEY DEEPEN THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST TOO MUCH. FORECAST MAX TEMP IS
A COMPROMISE OF GFS/NAM.
YET ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AROUND
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT.
NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING AND IT IS NOT OBVIOUS TO ME WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ANY REAL IMPACT ON TEMPS OTHER THAN TO TEMPER THE RETURN TO
NORMAL JULY READINGS. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW
NORMAL INTO MID WEEK. FORECAST WILL BE DRY INTO MID WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING WARMER
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY CLIMB
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN
THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOT`S OF CLOUDS STILL FLOATING AROUND AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN AT 3 OR 4 DEGREES C AT MOST LOCATIONS. CAN`T SEE CLOUDS
GOING AWAY COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS
ALREADY SPILLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...WILL
BACK OFF ON FOG MENTION FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A FEW SPOTS WILL
STILL GET A BRIEF MVFR MENTION BUT IFR CONDITIONS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY. APPEARS PRECIP WILL STAY S AND W OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUN THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE CONTINUE TO COME DOWN WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AND WILL
NEED NO HEADLINES FOR A CHANGE. BY EVENING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE S OF THE LAKE. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME W TO NW SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TUESDAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING THE N FLOW. NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 040733
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
333 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TOWARD THE
MASON DIXON LINE. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE RIDGES
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL LEAVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE WITH A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER KANSAS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BULK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF CWA WITH EXTREME
SOUTHERN CWA ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST RIDGES. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND BARELY CLIP CWA WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND RIDGES. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD EAST
BY LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NORMAL THEN ABOVE NORMAL
BY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH NO POPS IN FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY, MID-DECK AND SOME
CU NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS. THIS DECK SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT
AS NEXT SYSTEM WITH HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHES BY 18Z-20Z OR SO. DEW POINT
DEPRESSION DROPS TO 2 DEGREES OR LESS FEW TERMINALS AND INSERTED
SOME FOG...ONLY 4-5SM. EXPECT SCT015-SCT020 DECK TOWARD MORNING.
WENT BKN010-015 FKL-DUJ BY 08-09Z. HOWEVER DECK SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TODAY.
MOST TERMINALS ONLY MID-DECK AND HIGH CLOUDS BKN-OVC BY 00Z. HOWEVER
BROUGHT IN BKN CU ZZV IN ANTICIPATION OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN VCNTY
OF ZZV LATER PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (THIS EVENING). WINDS
LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEST UP TO 10KTS (MAINLY BELOW) ON SATURDAY.
EARLY SUNDAY, NEXT SYSTEM TO SPREAD MOISTURE GENERALLY TO OUR SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE OVER KY SHOULD SLIDE DIRECTLY EAST. COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS MGW-ZZV (WITH POSSIBLE MVFR) BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 040624
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND FIRST PART
OF SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THICKER CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY OUT OF THE REGION. THINKING THAT WITH
THE LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THAT TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST...STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PLACING WARM FRONT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN MCS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SE TOWARDS THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING. A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
FORECAST TRACK. IF THE MCS GOES SOUTH...THIS COULD ROB MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL
INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH PAST 24 HOURS WITH
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. YET...INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS STILL FIGURED TO BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...THEN
REFIRE AGAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. HAVE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXITING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
CHANCE POPS OF A LINGERING AFTERNOON SHOWER.
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REFORMING ON MONDAY OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SE...AROUND THE UPPER AIR TROF. THAT SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE LATER OR
REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR N.
NO BIG CHANGES ON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL LINGERING AND THEY SHOULD
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY BACKS AROUND
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING AT CKB AND EKN. ALTHOUGH IF THE
CLOUDS DO BREAK BEFORE SUN UP...VISIBILITIES COULD QUICKLY FALL TO
MVFR OR IFR LEVELS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GONE...BUT THE CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS.
WHILE IT IS THIN...THERE IS ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED
WITH THE CIRRUS TO LIMIT THE FOG BUT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY...INITIALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z AND THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES EAST INTO THE AREA
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER SRN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AROUND 00Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
INTO THE HTS AREA. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z WITH HTS/CRW/BKW AND
PERHAPS EVEN PKB IMPACTED WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL GO...BUT IT LOOKS FOR CERTAIN TO IMPACT THE SRN SITES.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KILN 040551
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES RIDGE WAS CENTERED ACRS OH VLY THIS EVNG. STILL SOME
SC/CU LEFTOVER FROM THE AFTN THAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HI LVL CLOUDS REMAIN AND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF MID LVL S/WV MOVING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVNG. MADE ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO FCST...INCREASING CLOUD COVER A TAD AND TWEAKING
WINDS. TEMPS AS OF 02Z WERE MAINLY IN THE U60S/L70S...AND FCST
LOWS IN THE U50S/L60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODELS KICK H5 S/W OUT OF MS VALLEY AND ACRS IL/IN INTO SRN OH ON
SAT. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY NE OF THE GFS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW. THE 12Z UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR LOW A LITTLE MORE SW OF
THE GFS. ALL THAT SAID...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL RUN
FROM NR AN IND-CVG-HTS LINE. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG
THIS LINE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO HIGH CHC POPS IN THE NE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH THE SFC TRACKING SW OF THE FA...SFC INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP S AND E OF THE FA ON SAT NGT...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE S EARLY SAT NGT.
SLOWLY TAPERED OFF THE POPS DURING SAT NGT.
WENT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SAT...THEN USED THE
RAW GFS TEMPS FOR LOWS SAT NGT. THIS WAS AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE WARMER MAV LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY PERIOD...WITH A
SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS
THAT ANY DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED...SO LEFT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE AFTER
SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LAG A BIT BEHIND SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. READINGS MAY
THEN REACH AND EXCEED NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALREADY SEEING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AT THE CINCINNATI
LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD KEEP SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY AT WILMINGTON AS WELL.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ITS TREK INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
IN FRONT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND MOVE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE STEADY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE LEAST LIKELY...THOUGH STILL
POSSIBLE...AT THE COLUMBUS FORECAST SITES. HOWEVER...THE
CINCINNATI SITES LOOK TO EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM...WITH
LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. ADDING IFR CONDITIONS
EXPLICITLY TO LATER FORECASTS IS CERTAINLY AN OPTION.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
GETS CLOSER...AS EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR VSBYS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KCLE 040534
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT OR TROF
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED WORDING OF THE CLOUD COVER.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL
KEEP THAT AREA DRY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS COULD HANG ON OVER
INLAND NW PA UNTIL 430 PM. WILL NOT MENTION THAT ATTM BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR. THE RUC TRIES TO INDICATE THIS. SKIES WILL BE OR
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE IT WILL STAY CLOUDIER...WILL MENTION
PATCHY FOG THERE.
THE LOWS ARE TOUGH TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE ANTICIPATING SOME BREAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM IS NOW OPTIMISTIC IN
STRUGGLING TO BRING THE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOW PESSIMISTIC IN SPREADING THE QPF TO CLE. THE MOISTURE AND
THE OMEGA ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATTM WILL JUST KEEP IT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE. THE WESTERN AREAS
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE TRYING TO
INDICATE MAINLY DRY...WHILE THE NAM ISN`T. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
QUESTIONS WILL KEEP IT DRY.
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS WENT MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MODEL AT NIGHT AND
THE WARMER MODEL FOR DURING THE DAY. THIS IS BASED ON SOME SUN AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. SUMMER
HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA OF FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS WARM TO
OVER 20C BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE A ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A VERY WARM RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO VIRGINIA BY 00Z SATURDAY.
RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOT`S OF CLOUDS STILL FLOATING AROUND AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REMAIN AT 3 OR 4 DEGREES C AT MOST LOCATIONS. CAN`T SEE CLOUDS
GOING AWAY COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS
ALREADY SPILLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...WILL
BACK OFF ON FOG MENTION FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A FEW SPOTS WILL
STILL GET A BRIEF MVFR MENTION BUT IFR CONDITIONS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY. APPEARS PRECIP WILL STAY JUST S OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUN THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WAVES
STILL AROUND 3.5 FEET AT BUOY 45152. SO BELIEVE WE WILL HANG NEAR
4 FEET FOR AREAS FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING WAVES TO
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CAN COME DOWN FOR NOW BUT SOME 4 FOOT WAVES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKLY
IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS
AREA IS STUCK BETWEEN NORTHERN SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AND A STORM TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...LEANING TOWARD ONSHORE DURING THE
DAYS...WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM THE NW CROSSES THE LAKE. THIS FEATURE...NOT WELL TIMED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/REL
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 040213
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
EXITS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES RIDGE WAS CENTERED ACRS OH VLY THIS EVNG. STILL SOME
SC/CU LEFTOVER FROM THE AFTN THAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HI LVL CLOUDS REMAIN AND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF MID LVL S/WV MOVING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVNG. MADE ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO FCST...INCREASING CLOUD COVER A TAD AND TWEAKING
WINDS. TEMPS AS OF 02Z WERE MAINLY IN THE U60S/L70S...AND FCST
LOWS IN THE U50S/L60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS KICK H5 S/W OUT OF MS VALLEY AND ACRS IL/IN INTO SRN OH ON
SAT. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY NE OF THE GFS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW. THE 12Z UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR LOW A LITTLE MORE SW OF
THE GFS. ALL THAT SAID...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL RUN
FROM NR AN IND-CVG-HTS LINE. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG
THIS LINE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO HIGH CHC POPS IN THE NE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH THE SFC TRACKING SW OF THE FA...SFC INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP S AND E OF THE FA ON SAT NGT...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE S EARLY SAT NGT.
SLOWLY TAPERED OFF THE POPS DURING SAT NGT.
WENT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SAT...THEN USED THE
RAW GFS TEMPS FOR LOWS SAT NGT. THIS WAS AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE WARMER MAV LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY PERIOD...WITH A
SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS
THAT ANY DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED...SO LEFT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE AFTER
SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LAG A BIT BEHIND SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. READINGS MAY
THEN REACH AND EXCEED NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RIDGE EXPANDING INTO OH VLY ATTM. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
REMAINED ACRS REGION THIS EVNG...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HI LVL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE OH VLY
ALL NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THICKER CLOUDS NOTED OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VLY EXPAND EAST. ENUF LO
LVL MOISTURE REMAINS THAT MAY SEE MVFR/IFR VSBYS DVLP FOR A TIME
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KLUK AND KILN.
FOCUS ON SATURDAY THEN SHIFTS TO TWO SUCCESSIVE MID LVL S/WV WITH
AN ASSOCD SFC LO APPCHG FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPANDING CLOUD COVER
WILL LOWER THRU THE MRNG AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE FCST
AREA. A FEW -SHRA MAY DVLP OUT AHEAD OF THE S/WVS BY MIDDAY...
PARTICULARLY AT KCVG AND KLUK. AS AFTN PROGRESSES...LEAD S/WV WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH STRONG FORCING...INCREASING ISENT LIFT
AND DEEP MOISTURE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO ENCOMPASS THE
TERMINALS FROM MID AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LIKELY TO AFFECT KCVG...KLUK AND POSSIBLY KILN...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. MODELS
INDCG SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTN. HAVE LEFT
OUT A CB MENTION AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS ATTM DUE TO EXPECTED
ISOLD NATURE OF TSTMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SRLY SAT MRNG
BEFORE BACKING TO E/SE BY SAT EVNG AS SFC LO MOVES INTO THE LWR OH
VLY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP AT WESTERN TERMINALS BY ERLY
EVNG...WITH CIGS WORSENING SAT NIGHT AS SECOND S/WV TRACKS THRU OH
VLY AND RAIN CONTINUES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR VSBYS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 040158
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
958 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT OR TROF
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED WORDING OF THE CLOUD COVER.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL
KEEP THAT AREA DRY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS COULD HANG ON OVER
INLAND NW PA UNTIL 430 PM. WILL NOT MENTION THAT ATTM BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR. THE RUC TRIES TO INDICATE THIS. SKIES WILL BE OR
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE IT WILL STAY CLOUDIER...WILL MENTION
PATCHY FOG THERE.
THE LOWS ARE TOUGH TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE ANTICIPATING SOME BREAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM IS NOW OPTIMISTIC IN
STRUGGLING TO BRING THE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOW PESSIMISTIC IN SPREADING THE QPF TO CLE. THE MOISTURE AND
THE OMEGA ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATTM WILL JUST KEEP IT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE. THE WESTERN AREAS
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE TRYING TO
INDICATE MAINLY DRY...WHILE THE NAM ISN`T. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
QUESTIONS WILL KEEP IT DRY.
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS WENT MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MODEL AT NIGHT AND
THE WARMER MODEL FOR DURING THE DAY. THIS IS BASED ON SOME SUN AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. SUMMER
HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA OF FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS WARM TO
OVER 20C BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE A ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A VERY WARM RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO VIRGINIA BY 00Z SATURDAY.
RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILING THAT REMAIN FOR ERI AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
BRIEF CLEARING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO SOME INLAND FOG...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS
HAVE KEPT SOILS WET. THIS SHOULD AFFECT THE KCAK AND KYNG AREAS
MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASE AS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FLOW THIS DIRECTION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION NEAR KFDY TO SEE IF ANY
THUNDER/SHOWERS CAN MOVE THAT FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUN THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WAVES
STILL AROUND 3.5 FEET AT BUOY 45152. SO BELIEVE WE WILL HANG NEAR
4 FEET FOR AREAS FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING WAVES TO
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CAN COME DOWN FOR NOW BUT SOME 4 FOOT WAVES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKLY
IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS
AREA IS STUCK BETWEEN NORTHERN SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AND A STORM TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...LEANING TOWARD ONSHORE DURING THE
DAYS...WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM THE NW CROSSES THE LAKE. THIS FEATURE...NOT WELL TIMED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB/KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/REL
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 040140
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
940 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT OR TROF
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL
KEEP THAT AREA DRY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS COULD HANG ON OVER
INLAND NW PA UNTIL 430 PM. WILL NOT MENTION THAT ATTM BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR. THE RUC TRIES TO INDICATE THIS. SKIES WILL BE OR
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE IT WILL STAY CLOUDIER...WILL MENTION
PATCHY FOG THERE.
THE LOWS ARE TOUGH TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE ANTICIPATING SOME BREAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM IS NOW OPTIMISTIC IN
STRUGGLING TO BRING THE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOW PESSIMISTIC IN SPREADING THE QPF TO CLE. THE MOISTURE AND
THE OMEGA ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATTM WILL JUST KEEP IT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE. THE WESTERN AREAS
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE TRYING TO
INDICATE MAINLY DRY...WHILE THE NAM ISN`T. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
QUESTIONS WILL KEEP IT DRY.
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS WENT MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MODEL AT NIGHT AND
THE WARMER MODEL FOR DURING THE DAY. THIS IS BASED ON SOME SUN AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. SUMMER
HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA OF FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS WARM TO
OVER 20C BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE A ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A VERY WARM RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO VIRGINIA BY 00Z SATURDAY.
RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILING THAT REMAIN FOR ERI AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
BRIEF CLEARING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO SOME INLAND FOG...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS
HAVE KEPT SOILS WET. THIS SHOULD AFFECT THE KCAK AND KYNG AREAS
MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASE AS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FLOW THIS DIRECTION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION NEAR KFDY TO SEE IF ANY
THUNDER/SHOWERS CAN MOVE THAT FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUN THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WAVES
STILL AROUND 3.5 FEET AT BUOY 45152. SO BELIEVE WE WILL HANG NEAR
4 FEET FOR AREAS FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. HOWEVER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING WAVES TO
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CAN COME DOWN FOR NOW BUT SOME 4 FOOT WAVES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKLY
IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS
AREA IS STUCK BETWEEN NORTHERN SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AND A STORM TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...LEANING TOWARD ONSHORE DURING THE
DAYS...WILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM THE NW CROSSES THE LAKE. THIS FEATURE...NOT WELL TIMED
BY MODEL GUIDANCE WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST OF THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/REL
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...OUDEMAN/MULLEN
000
FXUS61 KRLX 032356
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
743 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND FIRST PART
OF SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THICKER CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY OUT OF THE REGION. THINKING THAT WITH
THE LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THAT TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST...STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PLACING WARM FRONT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN MCS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SE TOWARDS THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING. A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
FORECAST TRACK. IF THE MCS GOES SOUTH...THIS COULD ROB MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL
INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH PAST 24 HOURS WITH
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. YET...INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS STILL FIGURED TO BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...THEN
REFIRE AGAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. HAVE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXITING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
CHANCE POPS OF A LINGERING AFTERNOON SHOWER.
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REFORMING ON MONDAY OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SE...AROUND THE UPPER AIR TROF. THAT SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE LATER OR
REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR N.
NO BIG CHANGES ON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CKB AND EKN TOWARD THE PREDAWN HOURS.
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT EKN AS WELL. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO 5KFT AT
THESE PLACES AND HIGHER AT OTHER SITES AROUND 15Z. THERE WILL BE
BROKEN PATCHES OF CLEAR SKIES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
FAR WEST...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032338
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CAUSED
THE RECENT SPELL OF COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY
LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO MOVING
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SHOWERS
TO LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS STUBBORNLY REFUSED TO EXIT THE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WX FOR EVENING PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL
BE SHOVED OUT BY A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL RESTRICT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OH AND WV COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM MOST RECENT NAM AND SREF MODEL RUNS...STILL EXPECT
INTERSTATE 70 TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM MODEL RUN HAS ALSO
SUGGESTED THERE IS A CHANCE OF A POST SYSTEM CONVERGENCE BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY DAYTIME SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME MONDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SREF MODEL MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW
THIS...SO ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THIS
PERIOD TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD BUT TOO HARD TO TIME TO INCLUDE NO HIGHER MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. GENERAL VFR CONDTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
JUST A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION MIGHT BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 032324
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT OR TROF
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NAM AND GFS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL
KEEP THAT AREA DRY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS COULD HANG ON OVER
INLAND NW PA UNTIL 430 PM. WILL NOT MENTION THAT ATTM BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR. THE RUC TRIES TO INDICATE THIS. SKIES WILL BE OR
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE IT WILL STAY CLOUDIER...WILL MENTION
PATCHY FOG THERE.
THE LOWS ARE TOUGH TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE ANTICIPATING SOME BREAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM IS NOW OPTIMISTIC IN
STRUGGLING TO BRING THE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOW PESSIMISTIC IN SPREADING THE QPF TO CLE. THE MOISTURE AND
THE OMEGA ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATTM WILL JUST KEEP IT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE. THE WESTERN AREAS
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE TRYING TO
INDICATE MAINLY DRY...WHILE THE NAM ISN`T. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
QUESTIONS WILL KEEP IT DRY.
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS WENT MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MODEL AT NIGHT AND
THE WARMER MODEL FOR DURING THE DAY. THIS IS BASED ON SOME SUN AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND. SUMMER
HEAT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA OF FRIDAY AS 850 TEMPS WARM TO
OVER 20C BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE A ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A VERY WARM RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO VIRGINIA BY 00Z SATURDAY.
RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILING THAT REMAIN FOR ERI AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SOME
BRIEF CLEARING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO SOME INLAND FOG...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS
HAVE KEPT SOILS WET. THIS SHOULD AFFECT THE KCAK AND KYNG AREAS
MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASE AS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FLOW THIS DIRECTION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION NEAR KFDY TO SEE IF ANY
THUNDER/SHOWERS CAN MOVE THAT FAR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SUN THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE EVENING HOURS WILL STILL REMAIN CHOPPY ON THE LAKE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND WIND/WAVES WILL COME DOWN. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE EAST
HALF SMALL CRAFT AS IS UNTIL 9 PM. AFTER THAT EXTREME EAST SHOULD
BE ABLE TO COME DOWN TO 2-4 AND EVENTUALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. BE CAREFUL
OF RIP CURRENTS THIS EVENING TOO.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKLY IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS AREA
IS STUCK BETWEEN NORTHERN SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A STORM TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...LEANING TOWARD ONSHORE DURING THE DAYS...WILL
BE IN PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW CROSSES THE LAKE. THIS FEATURE...NOT WELL TIMED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE
LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/REL
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 032321
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
721 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. HOWEVER AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS H5 LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PULLS E TNGT...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE VFR SC TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO SCT CI. KEPT FA DRY
OVERNIGHT.
KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OFF OF LAST NIGHTS LOWS TO COME UP WITH
TONIGHTS MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS KICK H5 S/W OUT OF MS VALLEY AND ACRS IL/IN INTO SRN OH ON
SAT. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY NE OF THE GFS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW. THE 12Z UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR LOW A LITTLE MORE SW OF
THE GFS. ALL THAT SAID...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL RUN
FROM NR AN IND-CVG-HTS LINE. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG
THIS LINE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO HIGH CHC POPS IN THE NE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH THE SFC TRACKING SW OF THE FA...SFC INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP S AND E OF THE FA ON SAT NGT...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE S EARLY SAT NGT.
SLOWLY TAPERED OFF THE POPS DURING SAT NGT.
WENT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SAT...THEN USED THE
RAW GFS TEMPS FOR LOWS SAT NGT. THIS WAS AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE WARMER MAV LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY PERIOD...WITH A
SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS
THAT ANY DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED...SO LEFT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE AFTER
SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LAG A BIT BEHIND SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. READINGS MAY
THEN REACH AND EXCEED NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES RIDGE EXPANDING INTO OH VLY ATTM. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
REMAINED ACRS REGION THIS EVNG...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HI LVL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE OH VLY
ALL NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THICKER CLOUDS NOTED OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VLY EXPAND EAST. ENUF LO
LVL MOISTURE REMAINS THAT MAY SEE MVFR/IFR VSBYS DVLP FOR A TIME
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KLUK AND KILN.
FOCUS ON SATURDAY THEN SHIFTS TO TWO SUCCESSIVE MID LVL S/WV WITH
AN ASSOCD SFC LO APPCHG FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPANDING CLOUD COVER
WILL LOWER THRU THE MRNG AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE FCST
AREA. A FEW -SHRA MAY DVLP OUT AHEAD OF THE S/WVS BY MIDDAY...
PARTICULARLY AT KCVG AND KLUK. AS AFTN PROGRESSES...LEAD S/WV WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH STRONG FORCING...INCREASING ISENT LIFT
AND DEEP MOISTURE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO ENCOMPASS THE
TERMINALS FROM MID AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LIKELY TO AFFECT KCVG...KLUK AND POSSIBLY KILN...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS AND MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. MODELS
INDCG SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTN. HAVE LEFT
OUT A CB MENTION AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS ATTM DUE TO EXPECTED
ISOLD NATURE OF TSTMS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SRLY SAT MRNG
BEFORE BACKING TO E/SE BY SAT EVNG AS SFC LO MOVES INTO THE LWR OH
VLY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DVLP AT WESTERN TERMINALS BY ERLY
EVNG...WITH CIGS WORSENING SAT NIGHT AS SECOND S/WV TRACKS THRU OH
VLY AND RAIN CONTINUES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR VSBYS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032217 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CAUSED
THE RECENT SPELL OF COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY
LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO MOVING
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SHOWERS
TO LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS STUBBORNLY REFUSED TO EXIT THE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WX FOR EVENING PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL
BE SHOVED OUT BY A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL RESTRICT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OH AND WV COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM MOST RECENT NAM AND SREF MODEL RUNS...STILL EXPECT
INTERSTATE 70 TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM MODEL RUN HAS ALSO
SUGGESTED THERE IS A CHANCE OF A POST SYSTEM CONVERGENCE BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY DAYTIME SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME MONDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SREF MODEL MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW
THIS...SO ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THIS
PERIOD TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD BUT TOO HARD TO TIME TO INCLUDE NO HIGHER MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE WEEK. &&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...STILL THINK THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS IN TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL SIMPLY
INCLUDE SCATTERED CIGS TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE REGION MIGHT BRING MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KRLX 032002
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND FIRST PART
OF SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THICKER CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY OUT OF THE REGION. THINKING THAT WITH
THE LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THAT TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST...STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PLACING WARM FRONT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN MCS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SE TOWARDS THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING. A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
FORECAST TRACK. IF THE MCS GOES SOUTH...THIS COULD ROB MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL
INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH PAST 24 HOURS WITH
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. YET...INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS STILL FIGURED TO BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...THEN
REFIRE AGAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. HAVE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXITING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
CHANCE POPS OF A LINGERING AFTERNOON SHOWER.
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REFORMING ON MONDAY OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SE...AROUND THE UPPER AIR TROF. THAT SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE LATER OR
REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR N.
NO BIG CHANGES ON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH MODERATE NW WINDS ALOFT. MVFR AND ISOLATED
IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
000
FXUS61 KILN 031942
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. HOWEVER AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS H5 LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PULLS E TNGT...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE VFR SC TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO SCT CI. KEPT FA DRY
OVERNIGHT.
KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OFF OF LAST NIGHTS LOWS TO COME UP WITH
TONIGHTS MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS KICK H5 S/W OUT OF MS VALLEY AND ACRS IL/IN INTO SRN OH ON
SAT. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY NE OF THE GFS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW. THE 12Z UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE THEIR LOW A LITTLE MORE SW OF
THE GFS. ALL THAT SAID...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL RUN
FROM NR AN IND-CVG-HTS LINE. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG
THIS LINE...WITH POPS DECREASING TO HIGH CHC POPS IN THE NE FOR
SATURDAY. WITH THE SFC TRACKING SW OF THE FA...SFC INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP S AND E OF THE FA ON SAT NGT...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE S EARLY SAT NGT.
SLOWLY TAPERED OFF THE POPS DURING SAT NGT.
WENT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SAT...THEN USED THE
RAW GFS TEMPS FOR LOWS SAT NGT. THIS WAS AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE WARMER MAV LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY PERIOD...WITH A
SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS
THAT ANY DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED...SO LEFT THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION FREE AFTER
SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LAG A BIT BEHIND SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. READINGS MAY
THEN REACH AND EXCEED NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS IN PLACE. NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
THICKNESS OF HIGH CLOUDS...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN MIST
AT KILN AND KLUK WITH LOCAL IFR VSBYS AT KLUK.
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL PERTURB AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. A FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHT.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR VSBY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR VSBYS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031936
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CAUSED
THE RECENT SPELL OF COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY
LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO MOVING
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SHOWERS
TO LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS STUBBORNLY REFUSED TO EXIT THE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL
BE SHOVED OUT BY A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL RESTRICT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OH AND WV COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM MOST RECENT NAM AND SREF MODEL RUNS...STILL EXPECT
INTERSTATE 70 TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM MODEL RUN HAS ALSO
SUGGESTED THERE IS A CHANCE OF A POST SYSTEM CONVERGENCE BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY DAYTIME SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME MONDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SREF MODEL MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW
THIS...SO ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THIS
PERIOD TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD BUT TOO HARD TO TIME TO INCLUDE NO HIGHER MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE WEEK. &&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...STILL THINK
THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS IN
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL SIMPLY INCLUDE SCATTERED CIGS TO HINT AT
THIS POSSIBILITY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE REGION MIGHT BRING MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 031918
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT OR TROF
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL
KEEP THAT AREA DRY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS COULD HANG ON OVER
INLAND NW PA UNTIL 430 PM. WILL NOT MENTION THAT ATTM BASED ON THE
CURRENT RADAR. THE RUC TRIES TO INDICATE THIS. SKIES WILL BE OR
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE IT WILL STAY CLOUDIER...WILL MENTION
PATCHY FOG THERE.
THE LOWS ARE TOUGH TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WENT TOWARD THE
COOL SIDE ANTICIPATING SOME BREAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM IS NOW OPTIMISTIC IN
STRUGGLING TO BRING THE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOW PESSIMISTIC IN SPREADING THE QPF TO CLE. THE MOISTURE AND
THE OMEGA ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION AREA
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATTM WILL JUST KEEP IT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE. THE WESTERN AREAS
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
OTHERWISE DRY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE TRYING TO
INDICATE MAINLY DRY...WHILE THE NAM ISN`T. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME
QUESTIONS WILL KEEP IT DRY.
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS WENT MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MODEL AT NIGHT AND
THE WARMER MODEL FOR DURING THE DAY. THIS IS BASED ON SOME SUN AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
LOCATIONS WEST OF CLE WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...CUMULUS RAPIDLY
FORMED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY MOVING EAST
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AND NE OH WITH A BROKEN CU
FIELD WEST ACROSS TO CHI. EXP BKN CU FIELD TO THIN TOWARD EVENING
BUT THICKER CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI MAY MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE
AND NORTHERN OHIO FOR A TIME. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXP FOG TO FORM INLAND AWAY FORM LAKE ERIE
ESPECIALLY AT YNG AND CAK WERE SHOWERS LINGERED THE LONGEST TODAY.
EXP IFR CIGS AND VSBY AT YNG WITH MVFR VSBY WEST OF CAK.
OUTLOOK..CHANCE MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHERN/WESTERN
TERMINALS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE EVENING HOURS WILL STILL REMAIN CHOPPY ON THE LAKE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND WIND/WAVES WILL COME DOWN. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE EAST
HALF SMALL CRAFT AS IS UNTIL 9 PM. AFTER THAT EXTREME EAST SHOULD
BE ABLE TO COME DOWN TO 2-4 AND EVENTUALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. BE CAREFUL
OF RIP CURRENTS THIS EVENING TOO.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKLY IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS AREA
IS STUCK BETWEEN NORTHERN SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES
TO NEW ENGLAND AND A STORM TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...LEANING TOWARD ONSHORE DURING THE DAYS...WILL
BE IN PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW CROSSES THE LAKE. THIS FEATURE...NOT WELL TIMED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE WILL BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE
LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/REL
AVIATION...REL
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KILN 031751
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
151 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO DROP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS
PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
TAD. LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ABUNDANT
AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. BASED ON SOUNDING
TECHNIQUES...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES ACRS THE
BOARD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE
PLAINS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING THE REGION ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
ELEVATED. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER GOOD CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHERE THERE WERE
LARGER DIFFERENCES IN MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
AND BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
NUDGING NORTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND EVENTUALLY GET BACK ABOVE NORMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. BUT AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS IN PLACE. NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
THICKNESS OF HIGH CLOUDS...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN MIST
AT KILN AND KLUK WITH LOCAL IFR VSBYS AT KLUK.
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL PERTURB AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. A FAIRLY MOIST
AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHT.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR VSBY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MVFR/IFR VSBYS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 031744
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
144 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF IS STILL ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COMBINATION OF A
VORT MAX AND A LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF 11 TO 12C
IS STILL CAUSING SOME SHOWERS. AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE DECREASES THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE. OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS THEY WILL HAVE SOME SUNSHINE. IN THE EASTERN
AREAS WITH THE CLOUDS ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES DOWN...WHILE IN
THE WEST WITH THE SUN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOKS GREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAD HOPED FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN
QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE
LATEST GFS AND NAM HINT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHRA DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KTOL TO KMFD TO KCAK. N OF THIS LINE DRY NE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
FROM FORMING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY BE MID LEVEL BASED. WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA. FOR NOW WILL GIVE ABOUT THE
SW 1/2 OF THE AREA CHANCE POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING OUT OF THE MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE QUIET. SOME
HINT AT A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND EXPECT NO PRECIP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. LATEST ECMWF SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILLS STRUGGLE TO GET TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
LOCATIONS WEST OF CLE WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED...CUMULUS RAPIDLY
FORMED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY MOVING EAST
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AND NE OH WITH A BROKEN CU
FIELD WEST ACROSS TO CHI. EXP BKN CU FIELD TO THIN TOWARD EVENING
BUT THICKER CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI MAY MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE
AND NORTHERN OHIO FOR A TIME. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXP FOG TO FORM INLAND AWAY FORM LAKE ERIE
ESPECIALLY AT YNG AND CAK WERE SHOWERS LINGERED THE LONGEST TODAY.
EXP IFR CIGS AND VSBY AT YNG WITH MVFR VSBY WEST OF CAK.
OUTLOOK..CHANCE MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHERN/WESTERN
TERMINALS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO
WATCH WAVE HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON EAST HALF TO EAST THIRD. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AT 2 TO 4 BUT WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 1 TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WAVES COULD BEGIN PUSHING 4 FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT WAVES TO REMAIN AT 1 TO 3 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OR THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15
KNOTS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY EAST HALF.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...REL
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KRLX 031734
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PESKY CLOSED LOW THAT HAS DRIVEN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
MUCH OF WEEK IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LAST SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY IS TRACKING BY JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PA...BUT A SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...WHEN THE REGION GETS ON THE NVA
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. AT THAT TIME THE 700 MB MOISTURE PULLS EAST
AND WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE...BEGIN TO SEE
THE COLD ADVECTION DISSIPATE. THAT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. STILL RAN A TOUCH BELOW THE
GUIDANCE ON THE HIGHS SINCE GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SOME MUCH WITH
THIS PATTERN.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH THE WINDS
GOING CALM. THE MODELS DO SHOW ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BUT IT IS HARD
TO KNOW AT THIS RANGE HOW THICK THE CIRRUS WILL BE. BUT LOOKING AT
THE FACT THAT THE 500 MB LEVEL REMAIN DRY UNTIL RIGHT AROUND
12Z...EXPECT IT WILL BE PRETTY THIN MOST OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE GONE
COOLER OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS AGREE ON HAVING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY IN THE DETAILS. 00Z RUNS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WITH ALL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...NOT YET READY FOR
LIKELY POPS...SO WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON MONDAY...WILL REMOVE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROUGH REACHES ITS
PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COOLEST 850 TEMPERATURES ON 12Z GFS
ABOUT 10C THEN ACROSS NRN WV. 12Z ECMWF NOT AS STRONG AND THUS NOT
AS COOL. CERTAINLY SHOULD NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR END OF THIS PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH MODERATE NW WINDS ALOFT. MVFR AND ISOLATED
IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
000
FXUS61 KILN 031546
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1146 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO DROP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS
PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A
TAD. LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ABUNDANT
AMOUNT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. BASED ON SOUNDING
TECHNIQUES...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES ACRS THE
BOARD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE
PLAINS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING THE REGION ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
ELEVATED. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER GOOD CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHERE THERE WERE
LARGER DIFFERENCES IN MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
AND BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
NUDGING NORTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND EVENTUALLY GET BACK ABOVE NORMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. BUT AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING
AT MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS AT AROUND 5000 FEET RIGHT NOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY QUICK TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...LEAVING CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE BEEN
MONITORING MVFR CEILINGS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IF ANY OF THIS LOWERING MAKES IT TO ONE
OF THE FORECAST SITES IT WILL BE BRIEF.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031522
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1122 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN. THE COMBINATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MOST PA COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS PERSISTED A BIT MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SEE NO REASON THAT THIS SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH MUCH BEFORE THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS IN WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH. LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW RUNNING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS WEEKEND...ANY RIPPLES ON THIS
WAVE TO THE NORTH...COLD PUSH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA
MORE IN LINE WITH PIT TO IND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAXES
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND A NORTHWEST ORIENTED 500H
PATTERN...EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF WET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY ONE
FEATURE AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL KEEP CURRENT DRY TREND GOING FOR
THE PERIOD...WITH LATER FORECASTS REFINING TIMING ON PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THIS UPCOMING
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO DEGRADED
CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS THAT ALL IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
LIFTED...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
TONIGHT...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR PORTS TO THE SOUTH OF PIT WHERE CROSSING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/MVFR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 031427
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER TROF IS STILL ALONG THE EAST COAST. A COMBINATION OF A
VORT MAX AND A LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF 11 TO 12C
IS STILL CAUSING SOME SHOWERS. AS THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE DECREASES THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE. OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS THEY WILL HAVE SOME SUNSHINE. IN THE EASTERN
AREAS WITH THE CLOUDS ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES DOWN...WHILE IN
THE WEST WITH THE SUN THE MID TO UPPER 70S LOOKS GREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAD HOPED FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN
QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE
LATEST GFS AND NAM HINT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHRA DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KTOL TO KMFD TO KCAK. N OF THIS LINE DRY NE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
FROM FORMING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY BE MID LEVEL BASED. WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA. FOR NOW WILL GIVE ABOUT THE
SW 1/2 OF THE AREA CHANCE POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING OUT OF THE MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE QUIET. SOME
HINT AT A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND EXPECT NO PRECIP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. LATEST ECMWF SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILLS STRUGGLE TO GET TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO RANGE FROM VFR IN THE WEST TO IFR
EAST. NWRN PA IS MVFR. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO VFR...WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR. EXPECT MVFR COULD HANG
ON IN THE FAR EAST FROM KYNG TO KERI INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
GOING COMPLETELY VFR. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND
LIFT. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN THE AREA BELIEVE
THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. TOOK MOST AREAS DOWN
TO MVFR AFTER 06Z WITH IFR AFTER 09Z.
OUTLOOK..MVFR/IFR IN FOG SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE MVFR SATURDAY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN TERMINALS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR FOG SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO
WATCH WAVE HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON EAST HALF TO EAST THIRD. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AT 2 TO 4 BUT WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 1 TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WAVES COULD BEGIN PUSHING 4 FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT WAVES TO REMAIN AT 1 TO 3 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OR THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15
KNOTS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY EAST HALF.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KCLE 031102
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PESKY LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION ALL WEEK IS FINALLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY JUST SOME SCATTERED SHRA
OCCURRING FROM KCLE EAST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST MUCH OF
THE MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FINALLY SHOWING SOME DRIER
AIR WORKING TOWARD AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL GET GOING LATER TODAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER AT 00Z
SATURDAY THAN THEY WERE AT 00Z FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH
TO GET TEMPS INTO THE 70S THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR CLEARING TRENDS LATER TODAY AND ADJUST TEMPS
APPROPRIATELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAD HOPED FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN
QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE
LATEST GFS AND NAM HINT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHRA DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KTOL TO KMFD TO KCAK. N OF THIS LINE DRY NE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
FROM FORMING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY BE MID LEVEL BASED. WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA. FOR NOW WILL GIVE ABOUT THE
SW 1/2 OF THE AREA CHANCE POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING OUT OF THE MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE QUIET. SOME
HINT AT A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND EXPECT NO PRECIP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. LATEST ECMWF SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILLS STRUGGLE TO GET TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN OHIO RANGE FROM VFR IN THE WEST TO IFR
EAST. NWRN PA IS MVFR. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO VFR...WITH THE MOST IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST
CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR. EXPECT MVFR COULD HANG
ON IN THE FAR EAST FROM KYNG TO KERI INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
GOING COMPLETELY VFR. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND
LIFT. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN THE AREA BELIEVE
THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP. TOOK MOST AREAS DOWN
TO MVFR AFTER 06Z WITH IFR AFTER 09Z.
OUTLOOK..MVFR/IFR IN FOG SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE MVFR SATURDAY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN TERMINALS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR FOG SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO
WATCH WAVE HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON EAST HALF TO EAST THIRD. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AT 2 TO 4 BUT WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 1 TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WAVES COULD BEGIN PUSHING 4 FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT WAVES TO REMAIN AT 1 TO 3 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OR THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15
KNOTS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY EAST HALF.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KILN 031055
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO DROP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS
PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA.
HOWEVER THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS.
EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR THEY MAY
FILL BACK IN. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE
PLAINS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING THE REGION ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
ELEVATED. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER GOOD CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHERE THERE WERE
LARGER DIFFERENCES IN MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
AND BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
NUDGING NORTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND EVENTUALLY GET BACK ABOVE NORMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. BUT AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOOKING
AT MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS AT AROUND 5000 FEET RIGHT NOW. THIS
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVERLY QUICK TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...LEAVING CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE BEEN
MONITORING MVFR CEILINGS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IF ANY OF THIS LOWERING MAKES IT TO ONE
OF THE FORECAST SITES IT WILL BE BRIEF.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 031053
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
653 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PESKY CLOSED LOW THAT HAS DRIVEN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
MUCH OF WEEK IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LAST SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY IS TRACKING BY JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PA...BUT A SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...WHEN THE REGION GETS ON THE NVA
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. AT THAT TIME THE 700 MB MOISTURE PULLS EAST
AND WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE...BEGIN TO SEE
THE COLD ADVECTION DISSIPATE. THAT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. STILL RAN A TOUCH BELOW THE
GUIDANCE ON THE HIGHS SINCE GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SOME MUCH WITH
THIS PATTERN.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH THE WINDS
GOING CALM. THE MODELS DO SHOW ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BUT IT IS HARD
TO KNOW AT THIS RANGE HOW THICK THE CIRRUS WILL BE. BUT LOOKING AT
THE FACT THAT THE 500 MB LEVEL REMAIN DRY UNTIL RIGHT AROUND
12Z...EXPECT IT WILL BE PRETTY THIN MOST OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE GONE
COOLER OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS AGREE ON HAVING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY IN THE DETAILS. 00Z RUNS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WITH ALL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...NOT YET READY FOR
LIKELY POPS...SO WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON MONDAY...WILL REMOVE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROUGH REACHES ITS
PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COOLEST 850 TEMPERATURES ON 12Z GFS
ABOUT 10C THEN ACROSS NRN WV. 12Z ECMWF NOT AS STRONG AND THUS NOT
AS COOL. CERTAINLY SHOULD NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR END OF THIS PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD...ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE...NOW OVER EASTERN PA...IS SWINGING THROUGH NOW AND IS
COMBINING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO HELP TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES...SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE IMPROVEMENT...DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME 850 MB WARMING AND WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING TO THE EAST...THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AND
ALLOW MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS. BY EVENING MOST OF THE
LOWER LEVEL CU WILL BE GONE...BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT TO
SEE THE CIRRUS TO BE THIN EARLY...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO
FORM...BUT AS THE CIRRUS THICKENS THE CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KILN 030822
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TO DROP INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS
PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA.
HOWEVER THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS.
EXPECT MORE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE A
GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR THEY MAY
FILL BACK IN. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRINGING A SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE
PLAINS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING THE REGION ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
ELEVATED. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER GOOD CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAINLY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES WHERE THERE WERE
LARGER DIFFERENCES IN MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
AND BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
NUDGING NORTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM AND EVENTUALLY GET BACK ABOVE NORMAL. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. BUT AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY SEEMS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH MOST CEILINGS IN THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT RANGE.
HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME TEMPORARY MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD NEARER TO SUNRISE.
ONE OR TWO SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERALLY STICK AROUND ON
FRIDAY...BUT CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 030749
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PESKY CLOSED LOW THAT HAS DRIVEN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
MUCH OF WEEK IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LAST SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY IS TRACKING BY JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PA...BUT A SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...WHEN THE REGION GETS ON THE NVA
SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. AT THAT TIME THE 700 MB MOISTURE PULLS EAST
AND WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE...BEGIN TO SEE
THE COLD ADVECTION DISSIPATE. THAT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES RECOVERING
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. STILL RAN A TOUCH BELOW THE
GUIDANCE ON THE HIGHS SINCE GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SOME MUCH WITH
THIS PATTERN.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH THE WINDS
GOING CALM. THE MODELS DO SHOW ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BUT IT IS HARD
TO KNOW AT THIS RANGE HOW THICK THE CIRRUS WILL BE. BUT LOOKING AT
THE FACT THAT THE 500 MB LEVEL REMAIN DRY UNTIL RIGHT AROUND
12Z...EXPECT IT WILL BE PRETTY THIN MOST OF THE NIGHT SO HAVE GONE
COOLER OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS AGREE ON HAVING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY IN THE DETAILS. 00Z RUNS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WITH ALL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...NOT YET READY FOR
LIKELY POPS...SO WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON MONDAY...WILL REMOVE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROUGH REACHES ITS
PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COOLEST 850 TEMPERATURES ON 12Z GFS
ABOUT 10C THEN ACROSS NRN WV. 12Z ECMWF NOT AS STRONG AND THUS NOT
AS COOL. CERTAINLY SHOULD NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR END OF THIS PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD...ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE...NOW OVER SRN ONTARIO...WILL DROP SE ACROSS WRN PA AND
COULD HELP ENHANCE THE CLOUDS AND INCREASE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER NERN WV THIS MORNING. BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS
HANG IN AROUND 4K TO 7K FT THIS MORNING. IF A SHOWERS DOES
DEVELOP...IT COULD DROP CEILINGS TO AROUND 2K FT...BUT THOSE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AND THEN BOUNCE BACK UP ONCE THE
SHOWER HAS PASSED. EKN AND CKB ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A
SHOWER...BUT LIKELIHOOD OF A SHOWER IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED AROUND 12Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
IMPROVEMENT...DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW. BEGIN
TO SEE SOME 850 MB WARMING AND WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING TO
THE EAST...THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AND ALLOW MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS. BY EVENING MOST OF THE LOWER LEVEL CU WILL BE
GONE...BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT TO SEE THE CIRRUS TO BE THIN
EARLY...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM...BUT AS THE CIRRUS
THICKENS THE CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030704
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
304 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN. THE COMBINATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CROSS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS IN WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH. LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW RUNNING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS WEEKEND...ANY RIPPLES ON THIS
WAVE TO THE NORTH...COLD PUSH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA
MORE IN LINE WITH PIT TO IND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAXES
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND A NORTHWEST ORIENTED 500H
PATTERN...EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF WET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY ONE
FEATURE AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL KEEP CURRENT DRY TREND GOING FOR
THE PERIOD...WITH LATER FORECASTS REFINING TIMING ON PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THIS UPCOMING
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO DEGRADED
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING IFR...FOCUSED NORTH AND EAST OF KPIT BY
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DISTURBANCE.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
TONIGHT...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR PORTS TO THE SOUTH OF PIT WHERE CROSSING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/MVFR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCLE 030658
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
258 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE PESKY LOW THAT HAS AFFECTED THE REGION ALL WEEK IS FINALLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY JUST SOME SCATTERED SHRA
OCCURRING FROM KCLE EAST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST MUCH OF
THE MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FINALLY SHOWING SOME DRIER
AIR WORKING TOWARD AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL GET GOING LATER TODAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER AT 00Z
SATURDAY THAN THEY WERE AT 00Z FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH
TO GET TEMPS INTO THE 70S THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR CLEARING TRENDS LATER TODAY AND ADJUST TEMPS
APPROPRIATELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAD HOPED FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN
QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE
LATEST GFS AND NAM HINT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SHRA DEVELOPING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KTOL TO KMFD TO KCAK. N OF THIS LINE DRY NE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
FROM FORMING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY BE MID LEVEL BASED. WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME VIRGA. FOR NOW WILL GIVE ABOUT THE
SW 1/2 OF THE AREA CHANCE POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS SATURDAY WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING OUT OF THE MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. MONDAY WILL ALSO BE QUIET. SOME
HINT AT A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND EXPECT NO PRECIP. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. LATEST ECMWF SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILLS STRUGGLE TO GET TO SEASONABLE VALUES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT BEGINNING TO SHOW AT THE END OF THE LONG TUNNEL. CONDITIONS
ACROSS NRN OHIO RANGE FROM VFR IN THE WEST TO MVFR CENTRAL AND
EAST. NWRN PA IS MVFR. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROPPING TO UNDER 1KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. DID NOT GO
THAT LOW ALTHOUGH DID TAKE CEILINGS TO A LOW MVFR MOST PLACES.
AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
THE MOST IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR. EXPECT MVFR COULD HANK ON IN THE FAR EAST FROM KYNG TO
KERI INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING COMPLETELY VFR. TONIGHT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND LIFT. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL IN THE AREA BELIEVE THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOG TO DEVELOP. THROUGH 06Z END TIME OF MOST OF THE TAFS COULD SEE
A FEW AREAS DROP TO MVFR. KCLE TAF CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z SO TOOK
THE TERMINAL DOWN TO 1SM AND CIGS BELOW 1KFT TOWARDS MORNING.
OUTLOOK..MVFR/IFR IN FOG SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE MVFR SATURDAY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN TERMINALS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR FOG SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL KEEP WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO
WATCH WAVE HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON EAST HALF TO EAST THIRD. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AT 2 TO 4 BUT WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 1 TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WAVES COULD BEGIN PUSHING 4 FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT WAVES TO REMAIN AT 1 TO 3 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OR THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15
KNOTS. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY EAST HALF.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
000
FXUS61 KRLX 030605
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT SETS UP JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT...POSSIBLY SKIMMING OUR AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
KEPT LOW CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS HAS CAUSED
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BREAK UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO WARRANT ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE LATER
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST IN THESE AREAS AS
MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES IS NOT COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING. EXPECTING A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL THINKING THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SET UP SHOP TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...KEEPING US ON THE MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE THE FRONT FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY ON SE TOWARD THE SMOKEY
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THUS...KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT UNDER CHANCES OF RAIN.
EVEN TIMING ANY FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS TOUGH FOR SATURDAY.
SOME RENEGADE MID DECK RACING EAST...COULD CONTAIN SOME LIGHT RAIN.
THIS MAKES THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY A HEADACHE TOO.
GENERALLY HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS...IN OUR SW COUNTIES...SO TRIED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN...STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 70S. TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTH.
OVERALL...HAVE POPS PEAKING OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
40 TO 50 PERCENT POP RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COULD NOT GO
LIKELY YET. POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...PEAKING SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROUGH REACHES ITS
PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COOLEST 850 TEMPERATURES ON 12Z GFS
ABOUT 10C THEN ACROSS NRN WV. 12Z ECMWF NOT AS STRONG AND THUS NOT
AS COOL. CERTAINLY SHOULD NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR END OF THIS PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD...ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE...NOW OVER SRN ONTARIO...WILL DROP SE ACROSS WRN PA AND
COULD HELP ENHANCE THE CLOUDS AND INCREASE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER NERN WV THIS MORNING. BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS
HANG IN AROUND 4K TO 7K FT THIS MORNING. IF A SHOWERS DOES
DEVELOP...IT COULD DROP CEILINGS TO AROUND 2K FT...BUT THOSE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AND THEN BOUNCE BACK UP ONCE THE
SHOWER HAS PASSED. EKN AND CKB ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A
SHOWER...BUT LIKELIHOOD OF A SHOWER IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED AROUND 12Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
IMPROVEMENT...DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW. BEGIN
TO SEE SOME 850 MB WARMING AND WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING TO
THE EAST...THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AND ALLOW MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS. BY EVENING MOST OF THE LOWER LEVEL CU WILL BE
GONE...BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT TO SEE THE CIRRUS TO BE THIN
EARLY...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM...BUT AS THE CIRRUS
THICKENS THE CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KILN 030530
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
130 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING THE OHIO VALLEY
IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL OHIO ARE GOING THE WAYSIDE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD NOT MAKE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LOW IS EXITING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD SWAY TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE GRIDS TO WARRANT AN UPDATED WORDED FORECAST. NUMERIC AFM/PFM
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT VALUES WHICH
WERE JUST BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
H5 LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
STILL SEEING SOME WEAK CAA TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION..,SO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BLOSSOM AGAIN FRI. WEAK H5 RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN
SO DONT EXPECT -SHRA ON FRI.
NW H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE PLAINS WHICH DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OH VLY LATE FRI NGT. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED
THE EWD PROGRESSION...SO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR FRI NGT.
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER FOR HIGHS ON FRI...AND THEN THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
LOWS FRI NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ILN AREA WILL BE UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE WEAK
HIGH WILL TAKE OVER AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LAG BEHIND SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 80. HIGHS MAY THEN APPROACH
NORMALS IN THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH MOST CEILINGS IN THE 5000 TO 7000 FOOT RANGE.
HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME TEMPORARY MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THE MOST
LIKELY PERIOD NEARER TO SUNRISE.
ONE OR TWO SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERALLY STICK AROUND ON
FRIDAY...BUT CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
IN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
000
FXUS61 KCLE 030512
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
112 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING AS THE REGION IS STILL UNDER THE GRIP OF
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH APPEARS TO BE CENTERED EAST OF
TORONTO WITH A VORT CENTER NEAR THE SOO AND ANOTHER OVER EASTERN
OH. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT OVER ERIE COUNTY PA. RAINFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN LOW TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH OF ERIE SO WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS REGION CLOSELY CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL THERE. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST THIRD SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES EAST WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE STABILITY. MAV TEMPS AND POPS HAVE BEEN USED WITH
MINOR CHANGES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH WARMING ALOFT
EXPECTED. HAVE ALLOWED A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY IN THE MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HAVE USED THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS TO SUFFER LESS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS
THE GFS DOES. HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BELIEVING THE PCPN THE GFS IS
FORECASTING OVER NORTHERN OHIO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUN WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF AND NAM ARE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO
SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. LATEST GFS TRIES TO BRING A HINT OF PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER...APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SO WILL KEEP
MONDAY DRY. LATEST GFS MOVES WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. ECMWF HINTING AT SAME THING...NOT CONVINCED...BUT BUMPED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT BEGINNING TO SHOW AT THE END OF THE LONG TUNNEL. CONDITIONS
ACROSS NRN OHIO RANGE FROM VFR IN THE WEST TO MVFR CENTRAL AND
EAST. NWRN PA IS MVFR. RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA. GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROPPING TO UNDER 1KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. DID NOT GO
THAT LOW ALTHOUGH DID TAKE CEILINGS TO A LOW MVFR MOST PLACES.
AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
THE MOST IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR. EXPECT MVFR COULD HANK ON IN THE FAR EAST FROM KYNG TO
KERI INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING COMPLETELY VFR. TONIGHT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND LIFT. HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL IN THE AREA BELIEVE THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOG TO DEVELOP. THROUGH 06Z END TIME OF MOST OF THE TAFS COULD SEE
A FEW AREAS DROP TO MVFR. KCLE TAF CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z SO TOOK
THE TERMINAL DOWN TO 1SM AND CIGS BELOW 1KFT TOWARDS MORNING.
OUTLOOK..MVFR/IFR IN FOG SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCE MVFR SATURDAY
SOUTHERN/WESTERN TERMINALS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR FOG SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL CHOPPY ON THE LAKE WITH UNSTABLE MARINE ATMOSPHERE AND WEST
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR SO. WILL HAVE TO STAY BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH 2-4 FOOT WAVES FORECAST...SO
POSSIBILITY STILL THERE FOR SMALL CRAFT FLAGS THROUGH FRIDAY. PESKY
LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN SO NW
GRADIENT STILL KEEPING THE WINDS AND THEREFORE WAVES ELEVATED. HIGH
PRESSURE MAINLY DOMINATES THE LAKE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE FOR SUNDAY. THIS MIGHT
JUST MAKE THE FLOW GO TO SW AND THEN BACK TO NW. OTHERWISE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KRLX 030206
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
959 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT SETS UP JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT...POSSIBLY SKIMMING OUR AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
KEPT LOW CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS HAS CAUSED
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BREAK UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO WARRANT ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE LATER
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST IN THESE AREAS AS
MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES IS NOT COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING. EXPECTING A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL THINKING THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SET UP SHOP TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...KEEPING US ON THE MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE THE FRONT FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY ON SE TOWARD THE SMOKEY
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THUS...KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT UNDER CHANCES OF RAIN.
EVEN TIMING ANY FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS TOUGH FOR SATURDAY.
SOME RENEGADE MID DECK RACING EAST...COULD CONTAIN SOME LIGHT RAIN.
THIS MAKES THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY A HEADACHE TOO.
GENERALLY HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS...IN OUR SW COUNTIES...SO TRIED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN...STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 70S. TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTH.
OVERALL...HAVE POPS PEAKING OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
40 TO 50 PERCENT POP RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COULD NOT GO
LIKELY YET. POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...PEAKING SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROUGH REACHES ITS
PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COOLEST 850 TEMPERATURES ON 12Z GFS
ABOUT 10C THEN ACROSS NRN WV. 12Z ECMWF NOT AS STRONG AND THUS NOT
AS COOL. CERTAINLY SHOULD NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR END OF THIS PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS
ALONG THEIR PATH. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SITES...WHILE THE DECK COULD BE
HIGHER LEVELS AT HTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WITH MODERATE NW WINDS ALOFT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING CREATING LOW VFR/MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT EKN AND BRIEFLY AT PKB.
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KILN 030114
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
914 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING THE OHIO VALLEY
IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL OHIO ARE GOING THE WAYSIDE EARLY THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD NOT MAKE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LOW IS EXITING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD SWAY TONIGHT...ALONG
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE GRIDS TO WARRANT AN UPDATED WORDED FORECAST. NUMERIC AFM/PFM
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT VALUES WHICH
WERE JUST BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
H5 LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
STILL SEEING SOME WEAK CAA TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION..,SO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BLOSSOM AGAIN FRI. WEAK H5 RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN
SO DONT EXPECT -SHRA ON FRI.
NW H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE PLAINS WHICH DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OH VLY LATE FRI NGT. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED
THE EWD PROGRESSION...SO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR FRI NGT.
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER FOR HIGHS ON FRI...AND THEN THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
LOWS FRI NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ILN AREA WILL BE UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE WEAK
HIGH WILL TAKE OVER AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LAG BEHIND SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 80. HIGHS MAY THEN APPROACH
NORMALS IN THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A CLOUD DECK
BTWN 5 AND 7KFT SPITTING OUT SOME VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. UPPER LOW
ACTUALLY MAKES SOME PROGRESS TO THE EAST TOMORROW BUT THE COOL AND
MOIST AIRMASS WILL NOT HAVE ANYTHING AROUND TO KICK IT OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. A BIT OF ENERGY WORKING IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY
SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TOMORROW...I LEFT OUT
ATTM SINCE THEY WOULD LIKELY BE VFR AND NOT FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. CU
WILL BLEND TOGETHER THIS EVENING FOR A NEARLY UNIFORM 5-6KFT
STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TRENDING PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER AT KCVG...AGAINST SOME MODELS
THAT ARE TRYING TO HAVE THE WEAK HIGH BUILDING TO THE S IN KY
OVERCOME THE COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE. MAINTAINED A
VFR CIG THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022354 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE UPDATED TO BRING AN END TO CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER. ANOTHER UL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LAKES LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER RISK FOR SHOWERS. SHOWER THREAT WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING AS LAST WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE 5-10 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD EXIT THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE VIRGINIAS
THIS WEEKEND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND HPC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY. WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ONE OR TWO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BUT SINCE TOO HARD TO TIME AT THIS POINT...NONE WERE
INCLUDED.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO REGION IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED AROUND FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN CEILINGS PROGGED BY 07Z-09Z
TIME FRAME TO GO IFR. VISIBILITY STILL MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THINK
CEILINGS MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR IFR. CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AGAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z-15Z AND THEN VFR. WEST WINDS 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND PICKING
UP NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF REGION.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022344
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY TO BE REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA MAY
BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DESPITE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE AT MOST
ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY.
LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE 5-10 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD EXIT THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE VIRGINIAS
THIS WEEKEND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND HPC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY. WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ONE OR TWO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BUT SINCE TOO HARD TO TIME AT THIS POINT...NONE WERE
INCLUDED.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO REGION IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED AROUND FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN CEILINGS PROGGED BY 07Z-09Z
TIME FRAME TO GO IFR. VISIBILITY STILL MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THINK
CEILINGS MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR IFR. CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AGAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z-15Z AND THEN VFR. WEST WINDS 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND PICKING
UP NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF REGION.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KILN 022323
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
723 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING THE OHIO VALLEY
IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
H5 LOW OVER THE ERN LAKES WILL DRIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY E OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP...THE SC DOESNT LOOK
DIURNAL...SO EXPECT IT TO HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT. THE SW MIGHT SEE
THE MOST BREAKS AND WENT PARTLY CLOUDY THERE AFT MIDNIGHT. STILL
SEEING A FEW ECHOS ON THE RADAR...BUT THEY ARE NOT MEASURING...SO
WILL COVER ANYTHING LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE.
AS FOR TEMPS...TOOK LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND KNOCKED A DEGREE OFF...TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY BREAKS THAT MIGHT OCCUR IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
H5 LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
STILL SEEING SOME WEAK CAA TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION..,SO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BLOSSOM AGAIN FRI. WEAK H5 RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN
SO DONT EXPECT -SHRA ON FRI.
NW H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE PLAINS WHICH DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OH VLY LATE FRI NGT. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED
THE EWD PROGRESSION...SO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR FRI NGT.
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER FOR HIGHS ON FRI...AND THEN THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
LOWS FRI NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ILN AREA WILL BE UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE WEAK
HIGH WILL TAKE OVER AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LAG BEHIND SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 80. HIGHS MAY THEN APPROACH
NORMALS IN THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A CLOUD DECK
BTWN 5 AND 7KFT SPITTING OUT SOME VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. UPPER LOW
ACTUALLY MAKES SOME PROGRESS TO THE EAST TOMORROW BUT THE COOL AND
MOIST AIRMASS WILL NOT HAVE ANYTHING AROUND TO KICK IT OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. A BIT OF ENERGY WORKING IN ON THE NW FLOW ALOFT MAY
SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TOMORROW...I LEFT OUT
ATTM SINCE THEY WOULD LIKELY BE VFR AND NOT FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. CU
WILL BLEND TOGETHER THIS EVENING FOR A NEARLY UNIFORM 5-6KFT
STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TRENDING PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER AT KCVG...AGAINST SOME MODELS
THAT ARE TRYING TO HAVE THE WEAK HIGH BUILDING TO THE S IN KY
OVERCOME THE COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE. MAINTAINED A
VFR CIG THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...FRANKS
000
FXUS61 KCLE 022320
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING AS THE REGION IS STILL UNDER THE GRIP OF
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH APPEARS TO BE CENTERED EAST OF
TORONTO WITH A VORT CENTER NEAR THE SOO AND ANOTHER OVER EASTERN
OH. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT OVER ERIE COUNTY PA. RAINFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN LOW TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH OF ERIE SO WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS REGION CLOSELY CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL THERE. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST THIRD SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES EAST WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE STABILITY. MAV TEMPS AND POPS HAVE BEEN USED WITH
MINOR CHANGES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH WARMING ALOFT
EXPECTED. HAVE ALLOWED A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY IN THE MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HAVE USED THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS TO SUFFER LESS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS
THE GFS DOES. HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BELIEVING THE PCPN THE GFS IS
FORECASTING OVER NORTHERN OHIO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUN WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF AND NAM ARE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO
SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. LATEST GFS TRIES TO BRING A HINT OF PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER...APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SO WILL KEEP
MONDAY DRY. LATEST GFS MOVES WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. ECMWF HINTING AT SAME THING...NOT CONVINCED...BUT BUMPED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
SEVERAL TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND IT. MAY BE SOME BRIEF VFR THIS
EVENING FOR A FEW LOCATIONS BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO SEE MVFR. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT BELIEVE IT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ONLY SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THEM BEING
FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTHERN OHIO INTO NW PA.
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
BELIEVE WE WILL KEEP A 5000 FOOT CEILING.
OUTLOOK..VFR MID TO LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
STILL CHOPPY ON THE LAKE WITH UNSTABLE MARINE ATMOSPHERE AND WEST
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR SO. WILL HAVE TO STAY BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH 2-4 FOOT WAVES FORECAST...SO
POSSIBILITY STILL THERE FOR SMALL CRAFT FLAGS THROUGH FRIDAY. PESKY
LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN SO NW
GRADIENT STILL KEEPING THE WINDS AND THEREFORE WAVES ELEVATED. HIGH
PRESSURE MAINLY DOMINATES THE LAKE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE FOR SUNDAY. THIS MIGHT
JUST MAKE THE FLOW GO TO SW AND THEN BACK TO NW. OTHERWISE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KRLX 022021
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT SETS UP JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG IT...POSSIBLY SKIMMING OUR AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
KEPT LOW CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS HAS CAUSED
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BREAK UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO WARRANT ANY
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH...AND HAVE THEREFORE RAISED MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE LATER
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST IN THESE AREAS AS
MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES IS NOT COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING. EXPECTING A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND ON FRIDAY...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STILL THINKING THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SET UP SHOP TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...KEEPING US ON THE MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE THE FRONT FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY ON SE TOWARD THE SMOKEY
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THUS...KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT UNDER CHANCES OF RAIN.
EVEN TIMING ANY FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS TOUGH FOR SATURDAY.
SOME RENEGADE MID DECK RACING EAST...COULD CONTAIN SOME LIGHT RAIN.
THIS MAKES THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY A HEADACHE TOO.
GENERALLY HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS...IN OUR SW COUNTIES...SO TRIED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN...STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 70S. TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORTH.
OVERALL...HAVE POPS PEAKING OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE
40 TO 50 PERCENT POP RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COULD NOT GO
LIKELY YET. POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...PEAKING SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROUGH REACHES ITS
PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COOLEST 850 TEMPERATURES ON 12Z GFS
ABOUT 10C THEN ACROSS NRN WV. 12Z ECMWF NOT AS STRONG AND THUS NOT
AS COOL. CERTAINLY SHOULD NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN
YESTERDAY AND TODAY...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR END OF THIS PERIOD.
HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...CREATING ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST 21Z. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL STILL BE PRESENT.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WITH MODERATE NW WINDS ALOFT. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING CREATING LOW VFR/MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS.
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
000
FXUS61 KILN 022012
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
412 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING THE OHIO VALLEY
IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
H5 LOW OVER THE ERN LAKES WILL DRIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY E OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP...THE SC DOESNT LOOK
DIURNAL...SO EXPECT IT TO HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT. THE SW MIGHT SEE
THE MOST BREAKS AND WENT PARTLY CLOUDY THERE AFT MIDNIGHT. STILL
SEEING A FEW ECHOS ON THE RADAR...BUT THEY ARE NOT MEASURING...SO
WILL COVER ANYTHING LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE.
AS FOR TEMPS...TOOK LAST NIGHTS LOWS AND KNOCKED A DEGREE OFF...TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY BREAKS THAT MIGHT OCCUR IN THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
H5 LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
STILL SEEING SOME WEAK CAA TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION..,SO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BLOSSOM AGAIN FRI. WEAK H5 RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN
SO DONT EXPECT -SHRA ON FRI.
NW H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE PLAINS WHICH DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OH VLY LATE FRI NGT. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED
THE EWD PROGRESSION...SO BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR FRI NGT.
WENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER FOR HIGHS ON FRI...AND THEN THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
LOWS FRI NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE ILN AREA WILL BE UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE WEAK
HIGH WILL TAKE OVER AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LAG BEHIND SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 80. HIGHS MAY THEN APPROACH
NORMALS IN THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PESKY UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS IT DOES...SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CIGS FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID AFTN AND DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
000
FXUS61 KCLE 021942
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING AS THE REGION IS STILL UNDER THE GRIP OF
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH APPEARS TO BE CENTERED EAST OF
TORONTO WITH A VORT CENTER NEAR THE SOO AND ANOTHER OVER EASTERN
OH. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT OVER ERIE COUNTY PA. RAINFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN LOW TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH OF ERIE SO WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS REGION CLOSELY CONSIDERING RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL THERE. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST THIRD SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES EAST WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE STABILITY. MAV TEMPS AND POPS HAVE BEEN USED WITH
MINOR CHANGES
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH WARMING ALOFT
EXPECTED. HAVE ALLOWED A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAINLY IN THE MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND HAVE USED THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH APPEARS TO SUFFER LESS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS
THE GFS DOES. HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BELIEVING THE PCPN THE GFS IS
FORECASTING OVER NORTHERN OHIO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUN WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF AND NAM ARE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO
SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY. LATEST GFS TRIES TO BRING A HINT OF PRECIP TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER...APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SO WILL KEEP
MONDAY DRY. LATEST GFS MOVES WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. ECMWF HINTING AT SAME THING...NOT CONVINCED...BUT BUMPED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING NOW INTO PA...BUT
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDE SPREAD. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME IFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK..EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEEKEND. .
&&
.MARINE...
STILL CHOPPY ON THE LAKE WITH UNSTABLE MARINE ATMOSPHERE AND WEST
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR SO. WILL HAVE TO STAY BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH 2-4 FOOT WAVES FORECAST...SO
POSSIBILITY STILL THERE FOR SMALL CRAFT FLAGS THROUGH FRIDAY. PESKY
LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN SO NW
GRADIENT STILL KEEPING THE WINDS AND THEREFORE WAVES ELEVATED. HIGH
PRESSURE MAINLY DOMINATES THE LAKE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
SOME INDICATION OF A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE FOR SUNDAY. THIS MIGHT
JUST MAKE THE FLOW GO TO SW AND THEN BACK TO NW. OTHERWISE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021917
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
317 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY TO BE REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA MAY
BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DESPITE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE AT MOST
ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY.
LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE 5-10 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD EXIT THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE VIRGINIAS
THIS WEEKEND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND HPC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY. WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ONE OR TWO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BUT SINCE TOO HARD TO TIME AT THIS POINT...NONE WERE
INCLUDED.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES. CONDITIONS WILL
OCCASIONALLY BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH SPOTTY IFR IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THIS SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY VFR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY TO KZZV AND KMGW.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
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