[top]
000
FXUS64 KOUN 041745
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE. DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND
SOUTH-WIND RECOVERY BEHIND BOUNDARY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
OVERALL...SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF MAIN FRONT MOST OF THE DAY WITH
N/NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS BY 19Z AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD
APPROACH KSPS BY EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS CURRENTLY
INITIATING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF KOUN AND EAST OF
KHBR/KLAW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT E/SE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG MAIN COLD FRONT 20-21Z NEAR AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40. MCS COULD ORGANIZE AND AFFECT KLAW/KSPS THIS
EVENING WELL PAST 05/06Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS COINCIDENT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS AND SUBSEQUENT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE FRONT`S PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE MANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BY MID-DAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIE NEARLY EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTER OF OKLAHOMA BY MID-DAY WHEN
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE FRONT INTERSECTS A
VERY HOT AIRMASS TO ITS SOUTH. LIKELY POPS EXIST TODAY IN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
RED RIVER AROUND SUNSET. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL EXTEND THROUGH
TONIGHT IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. SUNDAY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY NOT AS HOT, BUT STILL HUMID. UPSLOPE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AROUND THE CENTER OF THE AIRMASS OVER KANSAS WILL
BECOME COINCIDENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN MCS TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THIS, THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 69 89 66 / 60 50 10 10
HOBART OK 99 71 91 69 / 50 60 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 73 91 70 / 20 80 30 20
GAGE OK 95 64 87 63 / 50 20 0 40
PONCA CITY OK 88 66 85 64 / 60 20 10 10
DURANT OK 99 73 87 69 / 20 60 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09
[top]
000
FXUS64 KTSA 041743
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
...AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ACROSS KRVS AND KTUL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR CATEGORIES.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT ALL SITES UNTIL 12Z WHEN AT THAT
TIME VFR CONDITIONS CAN ANTICIPATED AT KXNA/KFYV/KRVS AND KTUL.
MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ELSEWHERE UNTIL 16Z.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ072-
OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23
000
FXUS64 KTSA 041708
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SENT AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO FURTHER REFINE TEMPS AND POPS ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSAGE. TRIMMED
SOME OK ZONES OFF OF THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY AS
THEY HAVE BECOME RAIN COOLED.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ072-
OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 041631
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ALREADY SENT UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AND RESULTANT
CLOUD COVER.RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES. UPDATE HOLDING UP SO
FAR...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ065-
OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
000
FXUS64 KTSA 041121
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
...AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING MAY IMPACT THE KTUL/KRVS TAF SITES AFTER 13Z.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH CIGS/VSBYS MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 040852
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
352 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING SHORT TERM FORECAST AS POPS AND TEMPS BOTH HEAVILY
IMPACTED BY ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING.
LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS ABOUT TO PUSH INTO NW OSAGE
COUNTY WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POISED TO SURGE SOUTH ACROSS ABOUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING POPS
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING STORMS. THESE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE STAYED VERY WARM WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
FALLING BELOW 75 SO FAR. EXCESSIVE HEAT APPEARS TO BE AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WHERE TEMPS WERE AT OR ABOVE 100 YESTERDAY. TRICKY PART
FOR TODAY WILL BE DEW POINTS AS HIGHEST VALUES WILL LIKELY POOL
NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH FIGURES TO BE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
I-40 BY TIME OF MAX HEATING. FARTHER SOUTH THE DEW POINTS SHOULD
ACTUALLY DROP WAS WINDS VEER SUBSTANTIALLY. IN ANY CASE MOST
AREA THAT STAY SOUTH OF OUTFLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES PEAK AT LEAST CLOSE TO 105...THUS WILL ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY FROM OKFUSKEE OK TO FRANKLIN AR.
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FIRST PERIOD ALSO PROBLEMATIC AS ABOVE
MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EVENTUALLY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT COM
INTO PLAY. THIS LEADS TO RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF
I-40 BY THIS AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS FOR
TODAY AS A RESULT. TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL COULD HAVE A SHOT AT REBOUNDING FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL SIDED MORE WITH THE WARMER MET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POTENTIALLY HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPES DEVELOPING.
MUCH COOLER SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SOME CLEARING TAKING
PLACE IN THE NORTH...WITH A COUPLE OF NICE COOL NIGHTS FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RIDGE WILL REBUILD TO OUR WEST
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS HEATING UP AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 95 68 87 67 / 60 40 10 10
FSM 99 69 84 65 / 30 70 30 10
MLC 100 69 86 66 / 20 70 30 10
BVO 93 65 87 60 / 60 30 0 10
FYV 91 64 81 59 / 50 60 20 10
BYV 90 63 82 58 / 50 50 10 10
MKO 96 67 85 66 / 50 60 20 10
MIO 91 64 86 62 / 60 30 10 10
F10 97 67 85 65 / 50 60 20 10
HHW 100 72 87 68 / 10 70 40 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
OKZ053-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-
OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-
ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 040832
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS COINCIDENT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS AND SUBSEQUENT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE FRONT`S PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE MANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BY MID-DAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIE NEARLY EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTER OF OKLAHOMA BY MID-DAY WHEN
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE FRONT INTERSECTS A
VERY HOT AIRMASS TO ITS SOUTH. LIKELY POPS EXIST TODAY IN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
RED RIVER AROUND SUNSET. A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL EXTEND THROUGH
TONIGHT IN NORTHERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. SUNDAY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY NOT AS HOT, BUT STILL HUMID. UPSLOPE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AROUND THE CENTER OF THE AIRMASS OVER KANSAS WILL
BECOME COINCIDENT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN MCS TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THIS, THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AND TEMPERATURES
AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 69 89 66 / 60 50 10 10
HOBART OK 99 71 91 69 / 50 60 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 73 91 70 / 20 80 30 20
GAGE OK 95 64 87 63 / 50 20 0 40
PONCA CITY OK 88 66 85 64 / 60 20 10 10
DURANT OK 99 73 87 69 / 20 60 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09
000
FXUS64 KTSA 040518
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
...AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT AREAS OF MVFR AND BRIEFLY
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE OVERNIGHT POPS NIL. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE ON TRACK AS WELL... SO WILL NOT NEED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...15
000
FXUS64 KOUN 040347
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
A FEW T-STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NW OK TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY TRACK
NEAR THE GAG AND WWR TERMINALS. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS ABV 20K FT. SCATTERED
T-STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OK BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...
REACHING N-TX AROUND MID EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
WITH LOSS OF HEATING... CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
AND WEST OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER.. STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. SO
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS BUT DID NOT ADJUST THE
POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SMALL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE 700 MB RIDGE THAT SUPPRESSED THUNDER YESTERDAY...
HAD BEGUN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A HEALTHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPED...BUT WITH THE 500-300 MB RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT WERE LACKING. THE FOCUS FOR LOCAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT...WELL DEFINED IN
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FARTHER WEST...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...AS
THEY FORM ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD. WE DREW CHANCE POPS
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE SATURDAY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT...AS NO
SINGLE MODEL HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON EVERY FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE EVENT EVOLVES FROM
THAT POINT...DIFFERS. OUR PREFERRED MODEL WAS THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS
ALSO ON THE RIGHT TRACK...BUT APPEARS TOO DRY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHERE THE EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAD REACHED UP TO NEAR
WACO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. WE SIDED WITH SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEWPOINTS. THE EXCESSIVELY
DRY NAM AFFECTS ITS INSTABILITY FIELD AND LIKELY THE CONVECTIVE
SCHEME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS AN
OUTLIER...PRODUCING NEARLY A CLOSED 700 MB LOW OVER THE PANHANDLES
WHICH FORCES MCS DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
WE FELT...INSTEAD...THAT WHILE A FEW STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THE MAJORITY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...IN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...WE SHIFTED POPS SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH.
WE ALSO HANG ONTO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO SUNDAY.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE CYCLE WILL REPEAT...AS THE FRONT RETURNS
SLOWLY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND INCREASING RIDGING FROM
THE WEST. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE GREATER LEE
TROUGHING...AND NO REMNANT COASTAL FRONT TO DELAY TRANSPORT OF DEEP
MOISTURE. GULF SOUNDINGS SHOWED 21 G/K MIXING RATIOS THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY MOIST. IF THIS MOISTURE REACHES THE
HIGH PLAINS...WE SHOULD SEE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EVEN
BENEATH THE RIDGE. ALSO...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING...HEAT INDICES
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 99 70 88 / 10 30 60 30
HOBART OK 79 98 70 88 / 10 30 60 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 104 73 87 / 10 0 50 50
GAGE OK 72 90 65 85 / 40 30 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 78 92 67 87 / 20 30 30 10
DURANT OK 78 101 74 87 / 0 0 30 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/22/32
000
FXUS64 KTSA 040218
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
918 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST TRANQUIL EVENING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE OVERNIGHT POPS NIL. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE ON TRACK AS WELL... SO WILL NOT NEED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
000
FXUS64 KOUN 040031 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
731 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
WITH LOSS OF HEATING... CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
AND WEST OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER.. STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT. SO
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS BUT DID NOT ADJUST THE
POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SMALL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE 700 MB RIDGE THAT SUPPRESSED THUNDER YESTERDAY...
HAD BEGUN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A HEALTHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPED...BUT WITH THE 500-300 MB RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT WERE LACKING. THE FOCUS FOR LOCAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT...WELL DEFINED IN
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FARTHER WEST...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...AS
THEY FORM ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD. WE DREW CHANCE POPS
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE SATURDAY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT...AS NO
SINGLE MODEL HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON EVERY FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE EVENT EVOLVES FROM
THAT POINT...DIFFERS. OUR PREFERRED MODEL WAS THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS
ALSO ON THE RIGHT TRACK...BUT APPEARS TOO DRY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHERE THE EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAD REACHED UP TO NEAR
WACO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. WE SIDED WITH SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEWPOINTS. THE EXCESSIVELY
DRY NAM AFFECTS ITS INSTABILITY FIELD AND LIKELY THE CONVECTIVE
SCHEME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS AN
OUTLIER...PRODUCING NEARLY A CLOSED 700 MB LOW OVER THE PANHANDLES
WHICH FORCES MCS DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
WE FELT...INSTEAD...THAT WHILE A FEW STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THE MAJORITY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...IN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...WE SHIFTED POPS SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH.
WE ALSO HANG ONTO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO SUNDAY.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE CYCLE WILL REPEAT...AS THE FRONT RETURNS
SLOWLY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND INCREASING RIDGING FROM
THE WEST. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE GREATER LEE
TROUGHING...AND NO REMNANT COASTAL FRONT TO DELAY TRANSPORT OF DEEP
MOISTURE. GULF SOUNDINGS SHOWED 21 G/K MIXING RATIOS THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY MOIST. IF THIS MOISTURE REACHES THE
HIGH PLAINS...WE SHOULD SEE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EVEN
BENEATH THE RIDGE. ALSO...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING...HEAT INDICES
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 99 70 88 / 10 30 60 30
HOBART OK 79 98 70 88 / 10 30 60 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 104 73 87 / 10 0 50 50
GAGE OK 72 90 65 85 / 40 30 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 78 92 67 87 / 20 30 30 10
DURANT OK 78 101 74 87 / 0 0 30 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/32
000
FXUS64 KOUN 032329
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SMALL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE 700 MB RIDGE THAT SUPPRESSED THUNDER YESTERDAY...
HAD BEGUN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A HEALTHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPED...BUT WITH THE 500-300 MB RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT WERE LACKING. THE FOCUS FOR LOCAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT...WELL DEFINED IN
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FARTHER WEST...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...AS
THEY FORM ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD. WE DREW CHANCE POPS
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE SATURDAY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT...AS NO
SINGLE MODEL HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON EVERY FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE EVENT EVOLVES FROM
THAT POINT...DIFFERS. OUR PREFERRED MODEL WAS THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS
ALSO ON THE RIGHT TRACK...BUT APPEARS TOO DRY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHERE THE EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAD REACHED UP TO NEAR
WACO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. WE SIDED WITH SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEWPOINTS. THE EXCESSIVELY
DRY NAM AFFECTS ITS INSTABILITY FIELD AND LIKELY THE CONVECTIVE
SCHEME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS AN
OUTLIER...PRODUCING NEARLY A CLOSED 700 MB LOW OVER THE PANHANDLES
WHICH FORCES MCS DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
WE FELT...INSTEAD...THAT WHILE A FEW STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THE MAJORITY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...IN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...WE SHIFTED POPS SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH.
WE ALSO HANG ONTO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO SUNDAY.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE CYCLE WILL REPEAT...AS THE FRONT RETURNS
SLOWLY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND INCREASING RIDGING FROM
THE WEST. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE GREATER LEE
TROUGHING...AND NO REMNANT COASTAL FRONT TO DELAY TRANSPORT OF DEEP
MOISTURE. GULF SOUNDINGS SHOWED 21 G/K MIXING RATIOS THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY MOIST. IF THIS MOISTURE REACHES THE
HIGH PLAINS...WE SHOULD SEE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EVEN
BENEATH THE RIDGE. ALSO...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING...HEAT INDICES
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 99 70 88 / 10 30 60 30
HOBART OK 79 98 70 88 / 10 30 60 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 104 73 87 / 10 0 50 50
GAGE OK 72 90 65 85 / 40 30 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 78 92 67 87 / 20 30 30 10
DURANT OK 78 101 74 87 / 0 0 30 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/22/32
000
FXUS64 KTSA 032328
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPT TO GET GOING
ALONG A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO TRYING TO POP UP OVER THE
HILLS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ANYTHING THAT DOES GET GOING
SHOULD BE GONE WELL BEFORE SUNSET AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT DRY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH IN KANSAS TONIGHT WILL SAG SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES
THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY JUST
YET AS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WHICH IS THE EARLIEST THAT HEAT
INDICES MAY POSSIBLY APPROACH 105. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGHEST
HEAT INDICES WILL BE SEEN IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE FRONT OR
OUTLFOW BOUNDARY WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING RESULTING IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM THE NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO LOW POPS IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL THEN KEEP IT DRY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. WITH
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE HILLS MAY BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY BUT THE AREAL
COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME.
DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SATURDAY RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...15
000
FXUS64 KTSA 032054
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPT TO GET GOING
ALONG A WARM FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO TRYING TO POP UP OVER THE
HILLS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ANYTHING THAT DOES GET GOING
SHOULD BE GONE WELL BEFORE SUNSET AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT DRY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH IN KANSAS TONIGHT WILL SAG SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COMPLICATES
THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY JUST
YET AS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE LOCATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WHICH IS THE EARLIEST THAT HEAT
INDICES MAY POSSIBLY APPROACH 105. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGHEST
HEAT INDICES WILL BE SEEN IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE FRONT OR
OUTLFOW BOUNDARY WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING RESULTING IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM THE NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO LOW POPS IN
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL THEN KEEP IT DRY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. WITH
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE HILLS MAY BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY BUT THE AREAL
COVERAGE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME.
DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SATURDAY RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 80 98 71 87 / 10 40 40 20
FSM 74 99 72 86 / 10 20 50 40
MLC 77 101 71 85 / 0 20 60 40
BVO 75 95 67 87 / 10 40 30 10
FYV 71 93 66 82 / 10 40 50 20
BYV 71 93 65 82 / 10 40 50 20
MKO 74 99 71 86 / 10 40 40 30
MIO 74 92 67 82 / 10 40 30 10
F10 76 100 71 87 / 10 30 50 30
HHW 75 100 73 83 / 0 10 50 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
000
FXUS64 KOUN 032006
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
306 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE 700 MB RIDGE THAT SUPPRESSED THUNDER YESTERDAY...
HAD BEGUN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A HEALTHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPED...BUT WITH THE 500-300 MB RIDGE STILL IN
PLACE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT WERE LACKING. THE FOCUS FOR LOCAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT...WELL DEFINED IN
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FARTHER WEST...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...AS
THEY FORM ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD. WE DREW CHANCE POPS
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THE SATURDAY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT...AS NO
SINGLE MODEL HAS A GREAT HANDLE ON EVERY FEATURE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHERE THE EVENT EVOLVES FROM
THAT POINT...DIFFERS. OUR PREFERRED MODEL WAS THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS
ALSO ON THE RIGHT TRACK...BUT APPEARS TOO DRY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WHERE THE EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAD REACHED UP TO NEAR
WACO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. WE SIDED WITH SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEWPOINTS. THE EXCESSIVELY
DRY NAM AFFECTS ITS INSTABILITY FIELD AND LIKELY THE CONVECTIVE
SCHEME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS AN
OUTLIER...PRODUCING NEARLY A CLOSED 700 MB LOW OVER THE PANHANDLES
WHICH FORCES MCS DEVELOPMENT WELL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
WE FELT...INSTEAD...THAT WHILE A FEW STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...THE MAJORITY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...IN A ZONE OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. THEREFORE...WE SHIFTED POPS SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH.
WE ALSO HANG ONTO HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO SUNDAY.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE CYCLE WILL REPEAT...AS THE FRONT RETURNS
SLOWLY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND INCREASING RIDGING FROM
THE WEST. THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE GREATER LEE
TROUGHING...AND NO REMNANT COASTAL FRONT TO DELAY TRANSPORT OF DEEP
MOISTURE. GULF SOUNDINGS SHOWED 21 G/K MIXING RATIOS THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS EXTREMELY MOIST. IF THIS MOISTURE REACHES THE
HIGH PLAINS...WE SHOULD SEE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EVEN
BENEATH THE RIDGE. ALSO...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING...HEAT INDICES
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 99 70 88 / 10 30 60 30
HOBART OK 79 98 70 88 / 10 30 60 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 104 73 87 / 10 0 50 50
GAGE OK 72 90 65 85 / 40 30 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 78 92 67 87 / 20 30 30 10
DURANT OK 78 101 74 87 / 0 0 30 50
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/22
BURKE
000
FXUS64 KOUN 031727
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT SEEN IN SURFACE OBS AND RADAR
FINE LINES...LIFTED THROUGH OKC-OUN THIS MORNING...BUT MAY NOT
REACH KPNC. WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST WIND AT KPNC...BUT
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING TRENDING
DIURNALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST WITH
MIXING ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THE PANHANDLES
SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH GAG-WWR...WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY. LIFT
WILL INCREASE ALONG A FRONT ARRIVING JUST BEYOND 18Z ON THE
4TH...WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE
BEGINNING WITH NEXT SET OF TAFS.
&&
BURKE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO TODAYS GRIDS. HOT WITH A LITTLE
MORE WIND THIS AFTN. WEAK SFC FRONT STRETCHING NW TO SE ACROSS THE
STATE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL
REMOVE PRECIP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANYTHING MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN OK WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 040600 BEFORE COLD FRONT ENTERS NW
OK AFTER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE TODAY BUT WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
DUE TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK WAVE
MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BORDER
EARLY SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN THERE EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA NEAR THE SLOWING
FRONT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD STRONGLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 100 75 93 70 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 100 77 95 70 / 0 10 20 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 79 98 73 / 0 0 20 50
GAGE OK 101 72 89 63 / 0 30 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 96 79 88 70 / 10 20 20 20
DURANT OK 99 77 94 73 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/22/22
000
FXUS64 KTSA 031711
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1211 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...23
000
FXUS64 KTSA 031611
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1111 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND REMOVAL OF MORNING WORDING
FOR RAIN AND THUNDER... AS MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OR
DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST READINGS FORECASTED ACROSS WRN AND SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA.
UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM ALREADY SENT.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05
000
FXUS64 KOUN 031556
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO TODAYS GRIDS. HOT WITH A LITTLE
MORE WIND THIS AFTN. WEAK SFC FRONT STRETCHING NW TO SE ACROSS THE
STATE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL
REMOVE PRECIP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS BEST
CHANCE TO SEE ANYTHING MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN OK WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 040600 BEFORE COLD FRONT ENTERS NW
OK AFTER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE TODAY BUT WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
DUE TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK WAVE
MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BORDER
EARLY SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN THERE EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA NEAR THE SLOWING
FRONT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD STRONGLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 96 75 93 70 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 100 77 95 70 / 0 10 20 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 102 79 98 73 / 0 0 20 50
GAGE OK 99 72 89 63 / 0 30 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 97 79 88 70 / 10 20 20 20
DURANT OK 99 77 94 73 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
30/22
000
FXUS64 KOUN 031146
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 040600 BEFORE COLD FRONT ENTERS NW
OK AFTER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 96 75 93 70 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 100 77 95 70 / 0 10 20 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 102 79 98 73 / 0 0 20 50
GAGE OK 99 72 89 63 / 0 30 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 97 79 88 70 / 10 20 20 20
DURANT OK 99 77 94 73 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09/09
000
FXUS64 KTSA 031121
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE KFYV/KXNA TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 16-17Z. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR IN THE HEAVIER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL OTHER
TAF SITES.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...18
000
FXUS64 KTSA 030906
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM EASTERN KANSAS EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT WANES...MAINLY EAST OF A NOWATA TO
OZARK LINE. WILL FINALIZE POPS JUST BEFORE ISSUANCE BUT FIRST
GUESS WOULD BE HIGH CHANCE OVER FAR NE OKLAHOMA AND NW CORNER OF
ARKANSAS THROUGH 18Z.
PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOW SOMEWHAT IN THIS
AREA...WHILE PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP ELSEWHERE.
DEW POINTS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN VERY WARM TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER
KANSAS MAY REACH FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT REMAINS UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT WITH 00Z MODELS
MOSTLY TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER SOUTHWARD PUSH. GUIDANCE FORECAST
HIGHS CAME IN CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN GOING FORECAST IN MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO AN EARLIER FROPA. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR
TEMPS TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS SFC WINDS VEER.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES CAN BE NAILED DOWN BETTER.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS HIGHER DEW
POINTS POOL ALONG FRONT. WITH A VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN SEE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WITH SOME STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME SIGNAL OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHOWING UP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 DURING THAT TIME.
TEMPS MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A RESULT AND IF RAIN PERSISTS LONG
ENOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGH TO EVEN REACH MID 80S.
THIS BRINGS ANOTHER NICE BREAK BEFORE THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND
RETURNS US TO TYPICAL HOT SUMMER WEATHER. THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BECOME FOCUSED TO THE NORTHWEST LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 98 80 96 71 / 10 10 20 60
FSM 98 73 99 72 / 10 10 10 60
MLC 98 74 98 71 / 10 10 10 60
BVO 97 75 92 67 / 10 20 30 30
FYV 90 70 94 68 / 20 10 20 60
BYV 89 69 91 68 / 20 10 20 40
MKO 95 74 96 71 / 10 10 10 70
MIO 93 75 93 69 / 30 20 30 30
F10 97 76 96 69 / 10 10 10 70
HHW 99 75 99 76 / 0 10 10 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 030850
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE TODAY BUT WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
DUE TO THE PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK WAVE
MOVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE AND BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BORDER
EARLY SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN THERE EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH
THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA NEAR THE SLOWING
FRONT. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD STRONGLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 96 75 93 70 / 10 20 20 40
HOBART OK 100 77 95 70 / 0 10 20 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 102 79 98 73 / 0 0 20 50
GAGE OK 99 72 89 63 / 0 30 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 97 79 88 70 / 10 20 20 20
DURANT OK 99 77 94 73 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/09
000
FXUS64 KTSA 030503
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1203 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BY A LOW LEVEL
JET. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BEFORE 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 17Z. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
A QUIET WEATHER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR...
UPSTREAM STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED OR MOVED INTO KANSAS.
THEREFORE... CURRENT POP ALIGNMENT FOR OUR AREA REMAINS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS
WELL... SO WILL NOT UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 030348
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. STORMS
CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF KPNC SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH AND EAST OF KPNC
TERMINAL.
&&
.UPDATE...
WITH LOSS OF HEATING... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SO HAVE REMOVED POPS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO CURRENT TRENDS.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 04/00Z AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03/14Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WEST/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES
OVER KANSAS. A FEW HOURS OF SUSTAINED 20KT POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH A RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR AFTN SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO CENTRAL OK. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OK WHERE
TERRAIN WILL PLAY A ROLE. MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH/BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT... BUT OTHER THAN REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS
SHOULD NOT IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY AND HOT AS SFC FRONT CREEPS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD
NORTHERN OK. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA... PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MESOSCALE FEATURES SURE TO PLAY A
ROLE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE SAT NIGHT/SUN AND NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
GFS SCENARIO OF MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
BUT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TRENDING
POPS DONE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR IT COULD SKIRT WESTERN SECTIONS... BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE ONLY
LOW POPS WITH COMPLEX REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MEAN AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES AND RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 99 74 101 / 10 0 0 20
HOBART OK 72 102 75 102 / 10 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 101 76 103 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 68 100 72 96 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 69 96 77 94 / 10 10 20 30
DURANT OK 72 99 74 99 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/11
000
FXUS64 KTSA 030201
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
901 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET WEATHER EVENING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR...
UPSTREAM STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED OR MOVED INTO KANSAS.
THEREFORE... CURRENT POP ALIGNMENT FOR OUR AREA REMAINS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK AS
WELL... SO WILL NOT UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM....06
000
FXUS64 KOUN 030115 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
WITH LOSS OF HEATING... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
SO HAVE REMOVED POPS. ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER TO CURRENT TRENDS.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 04/00Z AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03/14Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WEST/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES
OVER KANSAS. A FEW HOURS OF SUSTAINED 20KT POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH A RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR AFTN SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO CENTRAL OK. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OK WHERE
TERRAIN WILL PLAY A ROLE. MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH/BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT... BUT OTHER THAN REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS
SHOULD NOT IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY AND HOT AS SFC FRONT CREEPS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD
NORTHERN OK. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA... PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MESOSCALE FEATURES SURE TO PLAY A
ROLE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE SAT NIGHT/SUN AND NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
GFS SCENARIO OF MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
BUT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TRENDING
POPS DONE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR IT COULD SKIRT WESTERN SECTIONS... BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE ONLY
LOW POPS WITH COMPLEX REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MEAN AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES AND RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 99 74 101 / 10 0 0 20
HOBART OK 72 102 75 102 / 10 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 101 76 103 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 68 100 72 96 / 10 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 69 96 77 94 / 10 10 20 30
DURANT OK 72 99 74 99 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/11
000
FXUS64 KOUN 022333
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 04/00Z AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03/14Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WEST/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES
OVER KANSAS. A FEW HOURS OF SUSTAINED 20KT POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH A RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR AFTN SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO CENTRAL OK. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OK WHERE
TERRAIN WILL PLAY A ROLE. MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH/BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT... BUT OTHER THAN REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS
SHOULD NOT IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY AND HOT AS SFC FRONT CREEPS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD
NORTHERN OK. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA... PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MESOSCALE FEATURES SURE TO PLAY A
ROLE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE SAT NIGHT/SUN AND NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
GFS SCENARIO OF MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
BUT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TRENDING
POPS DONE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR IT COULD SKIRT WESTERN SECTIONS... BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE ONLY
LOW POPS WITH COMPLEX REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MEAN AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES AND RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 99 74 101 / 30 0 0 20
HOBART OK 72 102 75 102 / 20 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 101 76 103 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 68 100 72 96 / 20 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 69 96 77 94 / 20 10 20 30
DURANT OK 72 99 74 99 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
22/30
000
FXUS64 KTSA 022315
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
...AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
24 HOUR FORECAST. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE 09Z TO 18Z PERIOD AS THE REMAINS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THAT AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE OK HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AFTER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PASSAGE/SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED TO THE WEST WHICH KEEPS THE
AREA IN THE THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT. THAT SAID...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER COMPLEX THAT MAY CLIP THE NE CORNER OF OK AND NW AR VERY
LATE TONIGHT AND PAST 12Z. HAVE SHADED POPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ALSO KEPT THOSE AREAS
THE COOLEST FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STILL APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY SPLIT
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. WHILE POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S...AND WITH
LOW 100S EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NE OK. WRF SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE DONE PRETTY WELL AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE
FOR SATURDAY. AS HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
HEADLINES EXIST ESPECIALLY IF THE WRF TEMPERATURE SCENARIO PANS OUT.
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING FURTHER TOT HE
SOUTH ACCORDINGLY WITH BOUNDARY PROGRESSION. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED
TO THE SE ZONES FOR MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE THEN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING A BUT MORE EACH DAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THE REST OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...15
000
FXUS64 KOUN 022027
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH A RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARY WHICH MAY ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR AFTN SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO CENTRAL OK. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OK WHERE
TERRAIN WILL PLAY A ROLE. MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH/BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT... BUT OTHER THAN REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS
SHOULD NOT IMPACT AREA OVERNIGHT AND AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY AND HOT AS SFC FRONT CREEPS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD
NORTHERN OK. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA... PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MESOSCALE FEATURES SURE TO PLAY A
ROLE ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE SAT NIGHT/SUN AND NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON
GFS SCENARIO OF MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
BUT WILL KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TRENDING
POPS DONE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND THEN MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR IT COULD SKIRT WESTERN SECTIONS... BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE ONLY
LOW POPS WITH COMPLEX REMAINING WEST OF THE STATE.
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MEAN AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES AND RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 99 74 101 / 30 0 0 20
HOBART OK 72 102 75 102 / 20 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 101 76 103 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 68 100 72 96 / 20 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 69 96 77 94 / 20 10 20 30
DURANT OK 72 99 74 99 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
22/30
000
FXUS64 KTSA 022005
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE OK HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER AFTER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PASSAGE/SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING. UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED TO THE WEST WHICH KEEPS THE
AREA IN THE THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT. THAT SAID...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER COMPLEX THAT MAY CLIP THE NE CORNER OF OK AND NW AR VERY
LATE TONIGHT AND PAST 12Z. HAVE SHADED POPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ALSO KEPT THOSE AREAS
THE COOLEST FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS OT
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STILL APPEARS TO ESSENTIALLY SPLIT
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES. WHILE POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S...AND WITH
LOW 100S EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NE OK. WRF SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE DONE PRETTY WELL AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE
FOR SATURDAY. AS HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
HEADLINES EXIST ESPECIALLY IF THE WRF TEMPERATURE SCENARIO PANS OUT.
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING FURTHER TOT HE
SOUTH ACCORDINGLY WITH BOUNDARY PROGRESSION. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED
TO THE SE ZONES FOR MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE THEN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK PROGRESSES...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING A BUT MORE EACH DAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN
THE REST OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 98 79 101 / 10 10 10 20
FSM 66 96 75 98 / 20 10 10 10
MLC 70 97 76 98 / 10 10 0 10
BVO 67 98 74 98 / 20 10 20 30
FYV 62 92 69 96 / 30 20 10 20
BYV 62 92 69 95 / 30 20 10 20
MKO 68 96 75 100 / 10 10 10 20
MIO 63 93 72 97 / 30 20 20 30
F10 69 97 77 100 / 10 10 10 20
HHW 70 97 75 98 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....23
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