[top]
000
FXUS66 KMFR 032148
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
248 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE VARIED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAYS
RUNS...BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST BY
SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING THE BL TO 700 MB WINDS TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WITH INSTABILITY TO THE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LOOKS TO BE A ROUGH
REPEAT OF YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY WITH STORMS HAVING HIGHER PRECIP
AMOUNTS. ON THE FOURTH OF JULY HAVE VARIED A BIT FROM MY USUAL
THUNDERSTORM METHODOLOGY AND HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA OF POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE JET WINDS BEHIND
THE TROUGH ARE STRONGER THAN THE GFS IS SHOWING...INDICATING A
DEEPER AND SLOWER PROGRESSION PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 700 MB WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY...RESULTING IN A
SIMILAR INSTABILITY AND WIND PATTERN AS THIS EVENING. 700MB WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TOMORROW BY INCREASE WITH HEIGHT WITH A GOOD
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...WITH A CELL POSSIBLY
SKIRTING NEAR ASHLAND TOMORROW EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH WINDS PRECEDING BEING MORE
WESTERLY AND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING A STRETCH
TO A COOLING TREND THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING....THEN VFR ALL AREAS INLAND. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY MORNING...BURNING BACK TO
JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
SVEN
[top]
000
FXUS66 KPQR 032117
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
217 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN IS
BRINGING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE
BURNED BACK TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON IN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE HOT AND DRY INLAND THROUGH THE 4TH. THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTED INLAND SOMEWHAT TODAY...HOWEVER THE TEMPERATURE
STARTED OUT WARMER THIS MORNING GIVING US TEMPERATURESSIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BE LESS TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
LOOKING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH REACHING INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BEGIN
THE COOLING OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME INSTABILITY BY
SUNDAY IN THE CASCADES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY GIVING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST AND TO THE CASCADES/COASTAL RANGE.
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO HUG THE COAST LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS THINNING AND IT
SHOULD CLEAR BACK FROM THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE CHOPPY. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND
HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC WEAKENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
000
FXUS66 KPDT 032105
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
205 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING NEAR 140W. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN GRANT...BAKER...AND
SOUTHERN WALLOWA COUNTIES DUE TO THE MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW ALOFT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. EXPECT MOST OF THESE STORMS TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET...BUT A WEAK VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GRANT AND
WALLOWA COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. MOIST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON AGAIN...BUT THERE IS NO TRIGGER TO KEEP
STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST. THE INCREASING INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES AND
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OREGON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY UNDER THE RIDGE AND REMAIN
HIGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL
BE AROUND 100 DEGREES BOTH DAYS...SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. COONFIELD
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
MARINE PUSH WILL BRING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY WINDS TO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THE 12Z NAM WAS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND
WAS NOT REFERRED TO IN THE FORECAST. THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND MARINE PUSH WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE THE
LACK OF SURFACE HEATING...THE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
COULD BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON. NO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR WINDS AND
RH`S AS THE TIMING OF THE MARINE AIR WILL BE AT NIGHT WHEN
HUMIDITIES WILL BE TOO HIGH TO WARRANT ANY STATEMENTS. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. JOHNSON
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE OREGON...AND THERE
ARE SOME DISTANT CB CLOUDS HERE AT KPDT. SOME OF THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KPDT AND KALW THIS
EVENING BUT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE IN THE SAME AREA ON JULY 4TH...AND THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT OVER THE TAF SITES
EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF KRDM. JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 62 97 62 96 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 66 98 66 93 / 0 10 10 10
PSC 60 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 10
YKM 58 97 60 96 / 0 0 0 10
HRI 59 101 60 101 / 0 0 0 10
ELN 58 96 58 96 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 49 95 52 94 / 10 10 20 20
LGD 56 92 56 94 / 20 20 20 20
GCD 55 94 55 93 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 61 98 60 98 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ044.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR WAZ028.
&&
THREAT INDEX
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/85/85
[top]
000
FXUS65 KBOI 032010
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
210 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT FOR THE 4TH...AND THEN
GET EVEN HOTTER FOR THE 5TH. TEMPS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL BE
NEAR 100 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP...
BUT THIS TIME MAINLY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS LATE SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE PAC NW.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE ON THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS OUR CWA UNDER A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER...DISPLACED AROUND 400 MILES
SOUTH OF ITS NORMAL SUMMER POSITION. WE ARE WEIGHTING BOTH POPS AND
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE FAVORED ECMWF...AND CLIMATOLOGY. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD THE
CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET AND COOLER AIR ALOFT...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER AREA REMAINING DRY. WE ARE HOLDING POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MINS UP TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KBOI. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY VFR...WITH LOCAL MVFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS OR BLOWING
DUST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
...DECREASING IN COVERAGE TO ISOLATED ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIGHT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/MT
AVIATION.....JT
000
FXUS66 KPDT 031732 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG DESCHUTES TO GRANT
COUNTIES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERN BORDER OF MOISTURE
REMAINS ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO FORECAST. COONFIELD
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME
HIGH CIRRUS. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED CIRRUS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS WITH
BASES ABOVE 8000 FT. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 04/06Z. THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS IN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH 04/12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 15 KTS THOUGH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 83/85
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SWING TO A POSITION ALONG 135W
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AFFECT OF THIS PATTERN ON OUR REGION
WILL BE THAT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER 3-4
DEGREES TODAY. TEMPS WILL THEN BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
EXCEPTION SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE HIGH TEMPS MAY FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE REGION WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE MAIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAINLY OCCUR FROM DESCHUTES AND CROOK COUNTIES EAST INTO GRANT
COUNTY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. A STRAY
STORM MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH...THOUGH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADE GAPS (COLUMBIA GORGE...KITTITAS VALLEY)
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 90
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE REGION EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THIS IS LATER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING. THIS WILL REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ACCURATE BUT HAVE HELD
OFF ON SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND HESITATE TO JUMP FULLY ON BOARD WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF
A MARINE PUSH UNTIL THE EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HAVING A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. 83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 96 61 97 62 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 97 66 98 67 / 0 0 10 10
PSC 99 59 100 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 96 58 97 58 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 99 58 100 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 98 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 95 49 95 50 / 20 10 10 20
LGD 91 55 92 56 / 20 20 20 20
GCD 93 55 94 56 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 99 61 99 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/85
000
FXUS65 KBOI 031639
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1039 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NRN NV THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CWA. WILL BE
INCREASING POPS IN THE MORNING UPDATE. QPF WILL ALSO BE INCREASED
AS PW VALUES NEAR 1 INCH LATER TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY BECAUSE
THE CLOUD COVER FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL JUST ABOUT END
HEATING FOR THE DAY..AND WE DO NOT KNOW PRECISELY WHERE THE FIRST
STORMS WILL DEVELOP. WITH THAT SAID...WILL DECREASE MAX TEMPS A
LITTLE BIT IN THE SOUTH BECAUSE THAT SHOULD BE THE AREA OF INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH LIKE YDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST OF KBOI. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN BY
SUNDAY AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AWAY
FROM STORMS...WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR JUST
OFF THE CA COAST AS OF 08Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS OF IDAHO THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IDAHO. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LOW LEVELS ARE STILL
FAIRLY DRY WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES INDICATED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION... OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS CAN BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
LOCATIONS WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...BUT THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL IDAHO
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY AND SATURDAY...ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE TRACK OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ENTER THE PACNW NEXT WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST VERY WARM DAY FOR AWHILE. MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK BASED ON THE COLD
FRONT SITTING JUST OFF TO THE WEST...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDING
THE FRONT IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS COULD END UP BEING EVEN WARMER. THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WHICH LASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BULK OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW...WITH
A LOT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. GFS IS STILL
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER TO OUR
AREA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH BURNS...BAKER...AND MCCALL IN
A BETTER POSITION...WITH THE LOWEST POPS SOUTHEAST OF BOISE WHERE
THE AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DF
PREV LONG TERM....BW
000
FXUS66 KPDT 031628
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
928 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG DESCHUTES TO GRANT
COUNTIES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHERN BORDER OF MOISTURE
REMAINS ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO FORECAST. COONFIELD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SWING TO A POSITION ALONG 135W
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AFFECT OF THIS PATTERN ON OUR REGION
WILL BE THAT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER 3-4
DEGREES TODAY. TEMPS WILL THEN BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
EXCEPTION SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE HIGH TEMPS MAY FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE REGION WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE MAIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAINLY OCCUR FROM DESCHUTES AND CROOK COUNTIES EAST INTO GRANT
COUNTY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. A STRAY
STORM MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH...THOUGH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADE GAPS (COLUMBIA GORGE...KITTITAS VALLEY)
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 90
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE REGION EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THIS IS LATER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING. THIS WILL REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ACCURATE BUT HAVE HELD
OFF ON SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND HESITATE TO JUMP FULLY ON BOARD WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF
A MARINE PUSH UNTIL THE EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HAVING A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. 83
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME
HIGH CIRRUS. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED CIRRUS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS WITH
BASES ABOVE 8000 FT. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 04/06Z. THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS IN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH 04/12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 15 KTS THOUGH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 96 61 97 62 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 97 66 98 67 / 0 0 10 10
PSC 99 59 100 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 96 58 97 58 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 99 58 100 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 98 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 95 49 95 50 / 20 10 10 20
LGD 91 55 92 56 / 20 20 20 20
GCD 93 55 94 56 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 99 61 99 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/85/85
000
FXUS66 KMFR 031619
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
820 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.MORNING DISCUSSION...LATEST NAM12 RUN IS SHOWING AREA OF THETA E
CONVERGENCE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IN THE SISKIYOUS THAN CURRENT
FORECAST IS SHOWING. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS THIS MORNING.
.SHORT TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH SATURDAY. A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN NORTHEAST INTO MODOC...KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE LESS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH SO AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE
LESS AND WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO
SUNDAY...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST THEN
SWING INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS TROUGH. EXPECT A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST SUNDAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM THE
CASCADES AND EAST.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ370-PZZ376.
$$
RH/FB
000
FXUS66 KPQR 031533
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING IN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE HOT AND DRY INLAND THROUGH THE 4TH. YESTERDAY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN THE HOTTEST WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTED INLAND SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BE LESS TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
LOOKING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH REACHING INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BEGIN
THE COOLING OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME INSTABILITY BY
SUNDAY IN THE CASCADES.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO UNTIL 17Z. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING IN WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC WEAKENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 031146 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
445 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SWING TO A POSITION ALONG 135W
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AFFECT OF THIS PATTERN ON OUR REGION
WILL BE THAT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER 3-4
DEGREES TODAY. TEMPS WILL THEN BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
EXCEPTION SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE HIGH TEMPS MAY FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE REGION WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE MAIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAINLY OCCUR FROM DESCHUTES AND CROOK COUNTIES EAST INTO GRANT
COUNTY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. A STRAY
STORM MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH...THOUGH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADE GAPS (COLUMBIA GORGE...KITTITAS VALLEY)
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 90
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE REGION EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THIS IS LATER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING. THIS WILL REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ACCURATE BUT HAVE HELD
OFF ON SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND HESITATE TO JUMP FULLY ON BOARD WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF
A MARINE PUSH UNTIL THE EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HAVING A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. 83
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME
HIGH CIRRUS. THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED CIRRUS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN OREGON MOUNTAINS WITH
BASES ABOVE 8000 FT. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH AFTER 04/06Z. THE
COLUMBIA BASIN AND AREAS IN WASHINGTON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH 04/12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 15 KTS THOUGH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 96 61 97 62 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 97 66 98 67 / 0 0 10 10
PSC 99 59 100 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 96 58 97 58 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 99 58 100 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 98 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 95 49 95 50 / 20 10 10 20
LGD 91 55 92 56 / 20 20 20 20
GCD 93 55 94 56 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 99 61 99 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : YELLOW
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/83/83
000
FXUS66 KPDT 030954
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
255 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
145W WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND SWING TO A POSITION ALONG 135W
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AFFECT OF THIS PATTERN ON OUR REGION
WILL BE THAT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER 3-4
DEGREES TODAY. TEMPS WILL THEN BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
EXCEPTION SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES WHERE HIGH TEMPS MAY FALL A COUPLE OF
DEGREES DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE REGION WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE MAIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAINLY OCCUR FROM DESCHUTES AND CROOK COUNTIES EAST INTO GRANT
COUNTY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES. A STRAY
STORM MAY WORK INTO THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH...THOUGH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THE CASCADE GAPS (COLUMBIA GORGE...KITTITAS VALLEY)
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. 90
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE REGION EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THIS IS LATER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING. THIS WILL REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF ACCURATE BUT HAVE HELD
OFF ON SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING AND HESITATE TO JUMP FULLY ON BOARD WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION.
HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF
A MARINE PUSH UNTIL THE EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
HAVING A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S WITH 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. 83
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KRDM...KPDT...KALW AND KPSC OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN CENTRAL AND NE OREGON...ESPECIALLY NEAR KRDM.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 82
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 96 61 97 62 / 10 10 10 10
ALW 97 66 98 67 / 0 0 10 10
PSC 99 59 100 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 96 58 97 58 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 99 58 100 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 98 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 95 49 95 50 / 20 10 10 20
LGD 91 55 92 56 / 20 20 20 20
GCD 93 55 94 56 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 99 61 99 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : YELLOW
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
90/83/83
000
FXUS66 KPQR 030920
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
222 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SHOWN UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...A SIGN THAT WE ARE TURNING AROUND TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. BUT
INLAND...CONTINUED HOT THROUGH THE 4TH. YESTERDAY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
THE HOTTEST WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTED INLAND SOMEWHAT TODAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING. HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. LOOKING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH REACHING INLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO BEGIN THE COOLING OVER THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY IN THE CASCADES.
STARMER
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EXCEPT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PACIFIC WEAKENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KMFR 030904
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH SATURDAY. A VERY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THEN NORTHEAST INTO MODOC...KLAMATH
AND LAKE COUNTIES. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE LESS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH SO AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE
LESS AND WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO
SUNDAY...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST THEN
SWING INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS TROUGH. EXPECT A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST SUNDAY FROM THE CASCADES EAST AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH
WILL PERSIST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM THE
CASCADES AND EAST.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ370-PZZ376.
$$
RH/FB
000
FXUS65 KBOI 030851
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR JUST
OFF THE CA COAST AS OF 08Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS OF IDAHO THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN IDAHO. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LOW LEVELS ARE STILL
FAIRLY DRY WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES INDICATED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...SO GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION... OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS CAN BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
LOCATIONS WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...BUT THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL IDAHO
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY AND SATURDAY...ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES IN
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE TRACK OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ENTER THE PACNW NEXT WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST VERY WARM DAY FOR AWHILE. MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK BASED ON THE COLD
FRONT SITTING JUST OFF TO THE WEST...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDING
THE FRONT IS AN IDEAL SETUP FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY. BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS COULD END UP BEING EVEN WARMER. THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WHICH LASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BULK OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW...WITH
A LOT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. GFS IS STILL
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING CLOSER TO OUR
AREA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA...WITH BURNS...BAKER...AND MCCALL IN
A BETTER POSITION...WITH THE LOWEST POPS SOUTHEAST OF BOISE WHERE
THE AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND
EAST OF KBOI. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN BY
SUNDAY AS DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AWAY
FROM STORMS...WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
000
FXUS66 KPDT 030523 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1025 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHTS GRIDS.
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUT CANNOT YET RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAIN. 82
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER KRDM...KPDT...KALW AND KPSC OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
CENTRAL AND NE OREGON...ESPECIALLY NEAR KRDM. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 82
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASES THE
BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE JOHN DAY VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FARTHER
NORTH THAN WE HAD FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO I
HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MOST OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING. THIS ENERGY IS PROVIDING DYNAMIC FORCING...WHICH IS
TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. THE
SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD A TAD BUT REMAINING IN
CENTRAL OREGON...THUS ALLOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS.
A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POLAN
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD...AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING E-NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW LATE SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD
SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MARINE PUSH. TIMING IS CRUCIAL TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND WHETHER SUNDAY
WILL BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DEPENDING ON WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE PUSH. AT THIS TIME...MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE MARINE PUSH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THE STRONGEST ASCENT ALONG THE CASCADES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY WIND/RH CONCERNS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN ZONES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF THE MARINE PUSH.
THE COOL MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY TO
MONDAY...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
TUES-THURS. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 57 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 55 99 60 100 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 58 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 53 98 58 98 / 0 0 0 10
ELN 54 96 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 46 94 47 96 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 52 91 54 91 / 20 20 10 20
GCD 52 94 55 94 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 56 98 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : YELLOW
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
82/
000
FXUS65 KBOI 030341
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
940 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ACTIVE EVENING WITH CONVECTION...ONLY THIS
TIME MORE COVERAGE TO THE STORMS AND STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS. THE
STORMS WERE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
AND THE TWIN FALLS AREA...BUT ACTIVITY WAS ALSO PRESENT IN EASTERN
OREGON. THE TWIN FALLS REGION HAD DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
GREATER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...THUS STORMS THERE DUMPED BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND HAD ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY REMAINED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...BUT OFFICES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WERE ISSUING
WARNINGS OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES. PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME...THUS EXPECTING A WARM
NIGHT DUE IN PART BY THE INSULATING EFFECT OF THE CLOUD COVER. WITH
STORMS BEING THERMALLY DRIVEN...ALL ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY
AND RESTART ALL OVER AGAIN FRIDAY. A QUICK LOOK AT LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER CELLS AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE
CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ISOLATED
STORMS COULD FINALLY NUDGE NORTH OVER THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TRENDS IN PLACE...NO UPDATES REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COVERAGE OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY TO BECOME
ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE. STORMS REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GREATER
COVERAGE THAN TODAY...INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY. SIMILAR
FORECAST FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH STORMS FOCUSED OVER THE MTNS. MAIN
AVIATION THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS
FROM OUTFLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YDAY AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. THERE IS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY IN
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND THIS WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY UP TO OUR AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS GIVES US AN ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
HOT AGAIN TOMORROW AND ON THE 4TH. MORNING LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DISPLACE THE RIDGE AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
BY TUESDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE IMPEDED BY THE
VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...
KEEPING US UNDER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH WHATEVER MONSOON MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER OUR CWA. THE ECMWF TIMES THIS SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MONDAY AND BEYOND ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RH IS GENERATED IN THE TROUGH...AND DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TREASURE VALLEY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT AND
THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET. FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
PRECIPITATION WILL BE INHIBITED BY SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET
DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION...PLUS LACK OF AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE SOURCE AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY COOLING TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...GS
PREV DISCUSSION...SP
LONG TERM....JT/MT
AVIATION.....DG
000
FXUS66 KPQR 030330
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
822 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS
THE WARM WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S FRI AND
AGAIN ON SAT. THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FRI AND
SAT WILL INCREASE THE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE MARINE
AIR WONT PENETRATE INLAND PAST THE COASTAL STRIP. THE COAST WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
THOSE WANTING A REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM WEATHER. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SAT...EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING OF THE 4TH OF JULY.
MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...THE 18Z GFS RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z FOR
LOCAL IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
GRADIENT IS WEAKER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS SO WILL DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THERE. SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY UNTIL THE
WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC
WEAKENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO CASCADE HEAD UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KMFR 030301
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...03/00Z NAM IN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY OVER
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE
COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A DEFORMATION ZONE THAT MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTH
YESTERDAY. THE SISKIYOU COUNTY ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AIR MASS
THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY INTENSE SURFACE HEATING OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ONE THUNDERSTORM PERSISTS AT THIS TIME OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND ACTIVITY OVERALL IS WANING.
A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE NOW NEAR 40N 130W IS LIFTING BACK INTO THE
WESTERLIES AT THIS TIME. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...LEAVING A WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND...ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL START
TO TREND DOWN...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH AROUND TO SUPPORT
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SATURDAY WILL STILL BE HOT WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE
WON`T BE ANY CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS AROUND SO ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE THE RESULT OF PURE CONVECTIVE HEATING. DON`T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY THEN.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFD...A DRY COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH COMING IN. THE EAST SIDE WILL GET A LITTLE WINDY AND AREAS
WILL COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. FURTHER COOLING MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW OVERTAKES THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH...THOUGH NOT TOO
MUCH. OVERALL THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER BEING SOME INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPS.
THE NORTHWEST IS SET TO REMAIN UNDER THE TROUGH THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WHICH MEANS COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS
ARE ON TAP FOR SOUTHWEST OREGON. ANY SPECIFICS WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE WITH AT THIS POINT...BUT IN GENERAL...THE THREAT SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN OREGON WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE EAST AND MAYBE SOME
COAST AND UMPQUA SHOWERS. STAVISH
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS IN COASTAL STRATUS ALONG THE CURRY COAST
WILL WORK NORTH TO THE COOS COUNTY COAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH THE
CASCADES AND AREAS EAST TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER
WHICH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
FOR PZZ370-PZZ376.
$$
15/15/15
000
FXUS66 KPDT 030225
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHTS GRIDS.
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BUT CANNOT YET RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAIN. 82
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASES THE
BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE JOHN DAY VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FARTHER
NORTH THAN WE HAD FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO I
HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MOST OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING. THIS ENERGY IS PROVIDING DYNAMIC FORCING...WHICH IS
TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. THE
SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD A TAD BUT REMAINING IN
CENTRAL OREGON...THUS ALLOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS.
A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POLAN
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD...AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING E-NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW LATE SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD
SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MARINE PUSH. TIMING IS CRUCIAL TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND WHETHER SUNDAY
WILL BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DEPENDING ON WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE PUSH. AT THIS TIME...MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE MARINE PUSH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THE STRONGEST ASCENT ALONG THE CASCADES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY WIND/RH CONCERNS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN ZONES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF THE MARINE PUSH.
THE COOL MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY TO
MONDAY...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
TUES-THURS. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. JOHNSON
AVIATION...00Z TAFS. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO
WALLOWA COUNTY. THERE ARE CB CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF KRDM THAT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
NE OREGON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE NEAR KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 55 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 57 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 55 99 60 100 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 58 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 53 98 58 98 / 0 0 0 10
ELN 54 96 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 46 94 47 96 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 52 91 54 91 / 20 20 10 20
GCD 52 94 55 94 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 56 98 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : YELLOW
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
82/
000
FXUS66 KPDT 022311 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
410 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASES THE
BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE JOHN DAY VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FARTHER
NORTH THAN WE HAD FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO I
HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MOST OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING. THIS ENERGY IS PROVIDING DYNAMIC FORCING...WHICH IS
TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. THE
SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD A TAD BUT REMAINING IN
CENTRAL OREGON...THUS ALLOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS.
A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POLAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD...AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING E-NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW LATE SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD
SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MARINE PUSH. TIMING IS CRUCIAL TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND WHETHER SUNDAY
WILL BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DEPENDING ON WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE PUSH. AT THIS TIME...MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE MARINE PUSH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THE STRONGEST ASCENT ALONG THE CASCADES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY WIND/RH CONCERNS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN ZONES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF THE MARINE PUSH.
THE COOL MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY TO
MONDAY...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
TUES-THURS. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. JOHNSON
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO
WALLOWA COUNTY. THERE ARE CB CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF KRDM THAT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
NE OREGON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE NEAR KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 60 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 62 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 55 99 60 100 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 59 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 53 98 58 98 / 0 0 0 10
ELN 53 96 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 47 94 47 96 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 50 91 54 91 / 20 20 10 20
GCD 54 94 55 94 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 59 98 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : YELLOW
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
99/85/85
000
FXUS66 KMFR 022153
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE REGION LIES BENEATH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE. A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM FURTHER WEST BETWEEN 140 AND 150W. A
DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE MID LEVELS IS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE COUNTY. STORMS AS OF MID
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MOST NUMEROUS OVER NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY WHERE
RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE APPROACHED AN INCH WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. WE EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM AROUND
THE SCOTT VALLEY OF SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH THE CASCADES AND
KLAMATH COUNTY.
THE PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE MUCH INTO FRIDAY SO WE EXPECT SIMILAR
WEATHER...THOUGH THE MODELS HINT AT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TAKING A SLIGHT STEP EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPS OF UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE.
BY THE FOURTH...THE OFFSHORE UPPER WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. WE HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER THE
LATEST GFS INDICATES A SLIVER OF INSTABILITY TRAILING BACK INTO SW
OREGON WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY INCREASING ALOFT. IF THIS MODEL
TREND CONTINUES WE MIGHT WANT TO NUDGE A MENTION OF STORMS BACK
INTO JACKSON COUNTY.
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH COMING IN. THE EAST SIDE WILL GET A LITTLE
WINDY AND AREAS WILL COOL DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. FURTHER COOLING
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVERTAKES THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH...
THOUGH NOT TOO MUCH. OVERALL THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER BEING SOME INCREASING WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPS.
THE NORTHWEST IS SET TO REMAIN UNDER THE TROUGH THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WHICH MEANS COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS
ARE ON TAP FOR SOUTHWEST OREGON. ANY SPECIFICS WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE WITH AT THIS POINT...BUT IN GENERAL...THE THREAT SHOULD
BE MAINLY IN OREGON WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE EAST AND MAYBE SOME
COAST AND UMPQUA SHOWERS. STAVISH
&&
.AVIATION...SOME IFR CLOUD DECKS IN COASTAL STRATUS ALONG THE
CURRY COAST WILL BE WORKING THEIR WAY NORTH TO THE COOS COAST
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH THE CASCADES AND AREAS EAST
TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
000
FXUS66 KPQR 022141
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IS THE WARM WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 90S FRI
AND AGAIN ON SAT. THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FRI
AND SAT WILL INCREASE THE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
MARINE AIR WONT PENETRATE INLAND PAST THE COASTAL STRIP. THE COAST
WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
FOR THOSE WANTING A REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM WEATHER. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SAT...EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING OF THE 4TH OF JULY.
MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...THE 18Z GFS RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EXCEPT SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z FOR LOCAL IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AROUND KONP.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN OREGON AND HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE.
GRADIENTS RELAX AS HIGH IN THE GULF OF AK WEAKENS SOME SO EXPECT
WINDS TO EASE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE WATERS 10 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE VERY
NEAR SHORE ZONE THIS EVENING SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL. SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH WITH SHORT
PERIOD LOCAL FRESH SWELL AND WIND SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY
UNTIL THE WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SCHNEIDER
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SAT EVE FOR THE COAST RANGE...VALLEYS
AND FOOTHILLS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 022129
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASES THE
BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN THE JOHN DAY VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE ELKHORN AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THIS IS FARTHER
NORTH THAN WE HAD FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO I
HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WX GRIDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS...THE
GRANDE RONDE VALLEY AND MOST OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON THIS
EVENING. THIS ENERGY IS PROVIDING DYNAMIC FORCING...WHICH IS
TRIGGERING THE THUNDERSTORM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON. THE
SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD A TAD BUT REMAINING IN
CENTRAL OREGON...THUS ALLOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS.
A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POLAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD...AND A SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING E-NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW LATE SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD
SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MARINE PUSH. TIMING IS CRUCIAL TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND WHETHER SUNDAY
WILL BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY DEPENDING ON WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE PUSH. AT THIS TIME...MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE MARINE PUSH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THE STRONGEST ASCENT ALONG THE CASCADES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY WIND/RH CONCERNS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN ZONES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF THE MARINE PUSH.
THE COOL MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
RESULTING IN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY TO
MONDAY...AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
TUES-THURS. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. JOHNSON
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS. SATELLITE SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM KLAMATH/LAKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WALLOWA COUNTY.
THERE ARE CB CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF KRDM THAT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KPDT AND KALW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL
REMAIN AT KDLS, KPSC, AND KYKM. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
15 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NE OREGON WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE NEAR KRDM IN THE AFTERNOON. JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 60 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 62 96 63 95 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 55 99 60 100 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 59 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 53 98 58 98 / 0 0 0 10
ELN 53 96 59 95 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 47 94 47 96 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 50 91 54 91 / 20 20 10 20
GCD 54 94 55 94 / 20 20 20 20
DLS 59 98 61 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : YELLOW
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
99/85/85
000
FXUS65 KBOI 022036
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
236 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YDAY AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
INTO TOMORROW. THERE IS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY
IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND THIS WAVE WILL WORK ITS WAY UP TO OUR
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS GIVES US AN ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
HOT AGAIN TOMORROW AND ON THE 4TH. MORNING LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DISPLACE THE RIDGE AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
BY TUESDAY. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE IMPEDED BY THE
VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...
KEEPING US UNDER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH WHATEVER MONSOON MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER OUR CWA. THE ECMWF TIMES THIS SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MONDAY AND BEYOND ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RH IS GENERATED IN THE TROUGH...AND DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TREASURE VALLEY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT AND
THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE JET. FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
PRECIPITATION WILL BE INHIBITED BY SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET
DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION...PLUS LACK OF AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE SOURCE AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY COOLING TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS NEAR THE
NEVADA BORDER...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING
THEN BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCAL
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTH OF KMUO AND KTWF UNTIL 06Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/MT
AVIATION.....JT
000
FXUS66 KPDT 021714 AAC
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1015 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED THE OREGON SECTION
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OVER KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. A LOW
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES THE BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM MIGHT MOVE FROM NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST DESCHUTES COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ESCAPING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC
FORCING...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
OREGON THIS EVENING. THE SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY
WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD
A TAD BUT REMAINING IN CENTRAL OREGON.
A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POLAN
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. A LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
KEEP A WEAK FLOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY.
THUS SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT ALTOCUMULUS OR HIGH BASED CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS NEAR KRDM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER KRDM AND POSSIBLY NEAR KPDT AND KALW OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT KYKM...KPSC AND KDLS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME GUSTS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KRDM THIS AFTERNOON. 90/85
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST WILL USHER SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY THAT INCLUDES
CENTRAL OREGON AND OVER THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVE ACROSS THIS AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST DRIFTS INLAND. ONCE AGAIN THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHUD PRODUCE AFTN/EVE
TSRA OVER THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND MAY ALSO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE AND WALLOWA MTNS AS WELL. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD A
LITTLE MORE ON SATURDAY DUE A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG 139W. THIS RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. A WEAK WAVE MAY KICK EAST FROM THE TROUGH AND KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL DATA INDICATES THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
TROUGH ITSELF MOVING ONSHORE MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS MONDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS THE PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN TO
SLOW THIS SCENARIO SOME WITH EACH RUN. THUS FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS IS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ONLY LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING IN THIS SCENARIO. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 95 60 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 92 61 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 96 56 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 92 59 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 96 55 98 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 92 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 94 47 94 47 / 10 20 10 10
LGD 91 53 91 54 / 10 0 20 10
GCD 94 53 93 55 / 10 10 20 20
DLS 96 58 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
99/85
000
FXUS66 KPDT 021623 AAB
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
923 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED THE OREGON SECTION
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OVER KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. A LOW
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES THE BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM MIGHT MOVE FROM NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST DESCHUTES COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ESCAPING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC
FORCING...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
OREGON THIS EVENING. THE SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY
WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD
A TAD BUT REMAINING IN CENTRAL OREGON.
A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL PRODUCE A WARMING
TREND WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POLAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST WILL USHER SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY THAT INCLUDES
CENTRAL OREGON AND OVER THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVE ACROSS THIS AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST DRIFTS INLAND. ONCE AGAIN THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHUD PRODUCE AFTN/EVE
TSRA OVER THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND MAY ALSO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE AND WALLOWA MTNS AS WELL. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD A
LITTLE MORE ON SATURDAY DUE A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG 139W. THIS RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. A WEAK WAVE MAY KICK EAST FROM THE TROUGH AND KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL DATA INDICATES THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
TROUGH ITSELF MOVING ONSHORE MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS MONDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS THE PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN TO
SLOW THIS SCENARIO SOME WITH EACH RUN. THUS FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS IS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ONLY LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING IN THIS SCENARIO. 90
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT CONTINUE TO THIN AND ONLY EXPECT A FEW THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK AT KPDT AND KRDM. A LOW MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP A WEAK FLOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. THUS SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT ALTOCUMULUS OR HIGH
BASED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS NEAR KRDM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN EXPECT HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER KRDM AND POSSIBLY NEAR
KPDT AND KALW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT KYKM...KPSC AND KDLS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KRDM THIS
AFTERNOON. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 95 60 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 92 61 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 96 56 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 92 59 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 96 55 98 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 92 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 94 47 94 47 / 10 20 10 10
LGD 91 53 91 54 / 10 0 20 10
GCD 94 53 93 55 / 10 10 20 20
DLS 96 58 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
99/97/90
000
FXUS66 KPDT 021619 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
919 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED THE OREGON SECTION
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OVER KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. A LOW
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES THE BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM MIGHT MOVE FROM NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST DESCHUTES COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ESCAPING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC
FORCING...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
OREGON THIS EVENING. THE SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY
WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD
A TAD BUT REMAINING IN CENTRAL OREGON.
A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS THE COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR JULY 2ND AND 3RD. POLAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST WILL USHER SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY THAT INCLUDES
CENTRAL OREGON AND OVER THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVE ACROSS THIS AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST DRIFTS INLAND. ONCE AGAIN THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHUD PRODUCE AFTN/EVE
TSRA OVER THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND MAY ALSO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE AND WALLOWA MTNS AS WELL. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD A
LITTLE MORE ON SATURDAY DUE A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG 139W. THIS RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. A WEAK WAVE MAY KICK EAST FROM THE TROUGH AND KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL DATA INDICATES THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
TROUGH ITSELF MOVING ONSHORE MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS MONDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS THE PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN TO
SLOW THIS SCENARIO SOME WITH EACH RUN. THUS FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS IS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ONLY LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING IN THIS SCENARIO. 90
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT CONTINUE TO THIN AND ONLY EXPECT A FEW THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK AT KPDT AND KRDM. A LOW MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP A WEAK FLOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. THUS SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT ALTOCUMULUS OR HIGH
BASED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS NEAR KRDM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN EXPECT HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER KRDM AND POSSIBLY NEAR
KPDT AND KALW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT KYKM...KPSC AND KDLS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KRDM THIS
AFTERNOON. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 95 60 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 92 61 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 96 56 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 92 59 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 96 55 98 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 92 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 94 47 94 47 / 10 20 10 10
LGD 91 53 91 54 / 10 0 20 10
GCD 94 53 93 55 / 10 10 20 20
DLS 96 58 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
99/97/90
000
FXUS66 KMFR 021608
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
908 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE OVER THE REGION AND DESTABILIZING CONDITIONS WITH HEATING...
WILL SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING. MTS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE A BROAD BUT WEAK
TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE VERY STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS
DID AN EXEMPLARY JOB OF INDICATING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS SISKIYOU...MODOC...KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING
ARE EXPECTED AND THE REGION OF GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD. THUS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SISKIYOUS AND ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY TO THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ANOTHER SHIFT IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY...EASTWARD THIS TIME WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG
PICTURE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVE TO IDAHO. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. BUT
THE EXTENT OF HEATING WITH HIGHS STILL MAINLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ALSO LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WARRANTS
INCLUDING MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE AXIS OF THE STRONG RIDGE
MOVES EAST TO THE ROCKIES AND A BROAD TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A REGION OF
DEFORMATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE MONDAY AND BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE GFS HAS ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IN
THESE INSTANCES OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW. THE RESULT WOULD BE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL RATHER THAN A FEW TO SEVERAL BELOW NORMAL.
THE FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THEY WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF THE CENTER
OF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE AND DROPS FARTHER SOUTH RESULTING IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY EAST SIDE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS THE MOST LIKELY
SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS AND
FOG ALONG THE CURRY COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING...EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE MORNING AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE COAST DURING THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...VFR EXCEPT ISOLD MVFR VSBY ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM THE
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS OF SOUTHERN OREGON.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
000
FXUS66 KPDT 021600
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
900 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ENTERED THE OREGON SECTION
OF FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE IS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON OVER KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. A LOW
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL OREGON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES THE BUOYANCY BETWEEN 10000-20000 FT MSL AND WILL
PRODUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY. HOWEVER...A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM MIGHT MOVE FROM NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST DESCHUTES COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ESCAPING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON THIS EVENING. THIS ENERGY WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC
FORCING...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
OREGON THIS EVENING. THE SAME SCENARIO WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY
WITH THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD
A TAD BUT REMAINING IN CENTRAL OREGON. POLAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST WILL USHER SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY THAT INCLUDES
CENTRAL OREGON AND OVER THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVE ACROSS THIS AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST DRIFTS INLAND. ONCE AGAIN THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHUD PRODUCE AFTN/EVE
TSRA OVER THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND MAY ALSO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE AND WALLOWA MTNS AS WELL. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD A
LITTLE MORE ON SATURDAY DUE A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG 139W. THIS RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. A WEAK WAVE MAY KICK EAST FROM THE TROUGH AND KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL DATA INDICATES THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
TROUGH ITSELF MOVING ONSHORE MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS MONDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS THE PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN TO
SLOW THIS SCENARIO SOME WITH EACH RUN. THUS FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS IS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ONLY LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING IN THIS SCENARIO. 90
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT CONTINUE TO THIN AND ONLY EXPECT A FEW THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK AT KPDT AND KRDM. A LOW MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP A WEAK FLOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. THUS SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT ALTOCUMULUS OR HIGH
BASED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS NEAR KRDM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN EXPECT HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER KRDM AND POSSIBLY NEAR
KPDT AND KALW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT KYKM...KPSC AND KDLS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KRDM THIS
AFTERNOON. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 95 60 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 92 61 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 96 56 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 92 59 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 96 55 98 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 92 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 94 47 94 47 / 10 20 10 10
LGD 91 53 91 54 / 10 0 20 10
GCD 94 53 93 55 / 10 10 20 20
DLS 96 58 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
99/97/90
000
FXUS66 KPQR 021554
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS WE GO
INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RUNNING
ABOUT 2 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 12Z SLE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWED ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMING AROUND 900 MB. THE THERMAL
TROUGH BUILDS UP THROUGH WESTERN OREGON TODAY AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT INLAND TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
INTO THE MID 90S TODAY. FRI AND SAT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM AS
WELL WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. WEAK ONSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RESULT AN INCREASE IN MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND IT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON SUN AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONVECTIVE THREAT TO THE CASCADES
SUN...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WE BEGIN THE
NEW WORK WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF STRATUS NEAR KONP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 16Z OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS LAND HEATS UP TODAY
FOR A LITTLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
GRADIENTS WILL RELAX TONIGHT THEN WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR 7 TO 9 FT THOUGH
PERIODS ARE NEAR 8 SECONDS AND WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY SEAS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVE FOR THE COAST RANGE...VALLEYS
AND FOOTHILLS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS65 KBOI 021551
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
951 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...WILL BE INCREASING POPS TODAY IN MANY AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE PORTION OF OUR CWA...THAT IS... IN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY AND SE OWYHEE COUNTY. DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AT THIS TIME...AND THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...WILL TWEAK TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON MORNING SOUNDING AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS. UPDATE OUT BY
1030 AM MDT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 06Z
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOCAL MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND EAST OF
KMUO...AND OVER THE BOISE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WRAPPING AROUND A FOUR
CORNERS HIGH. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS OF
OREGON AND IDAHO...SPREADING FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO ON FRIDAY. LOWER LEVELS WILL START OUT
DRY AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE...
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TODAY WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
PEAKING. TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS KEEPING MIN TEMPS UP...THOUGH THIS SAME CLOUD COVER AND
GREATER THUNDERSTORM AREAL COVERAGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS
ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS IT SLOWLY WORKS INLAND. THE GFS BRINGS IT INLAND FURTHER
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER SOLUTION WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND AN ABOVE NORMAL THREAT OF SHOWERS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DF
PREV LONG TERM....BW
000
FXUS66 KPDT 021147 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
447 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST WILL USHER SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY THAT INCLUDES
CENTRAL OREGON AND OVER THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVE ACROSS THIS AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST DRIFTS INLAND. ONCE AGAIN THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHUD PRODUCE AFTN/EVE
TSRA OVER THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND MAY ALSO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE AND WALLOWA MTNS AS WELL. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD A
LITTLE MORE ON SATURDAY DUE A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG 139W. THIS RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. A WEAK WAVE MAY KICK EAST FROM THE TROUGH AND KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL DATA INDICATES THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
TROUGH ITSELF MOVING ONSHORE MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS MONDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS THE PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN TO
SLOW THIS SCENARIO SOME WITH EACH RUN. THUS FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS IS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ONLY LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING IN THIS SCENARIO. 90
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON
THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT CONTINUE TO THIN AND ONLY EXPECT A FEW THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT DAYBREAK AT KPDT AND KRDM. A LOW MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP A WEAK FLOW OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON TODAY. THUS SHOULD SEE FEW-SCT ALTOCUMULUS OR HIGH
BASED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS NEAR KRDM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AGAIN EXPECT HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER KRDM AND POSSIBLY NEAR
KPDT AND KALW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT KYKM...KPSC AND KDLS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KRDM THIS
AFTERNOON. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 95 60 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 92 61 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 96 56 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 92 59 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 96 55 98 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 92 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 94 47 94 47 / 10 20 10 10
LGD 91 53 91 54 / 10 0 20 10
GCD 94 53 93 55 / 10 10 20 20
DLS 96 58 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/90/90
000
FXUS66 KMFR 021012
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
312 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE A BROAD BUT WEAK
TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE VERY STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS
DID AN EXEMPLARY JOB OF INDICATING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS SISKIYOU...MODOC...KLAMATH AND
LAKE COUNTIES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY...A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING
ARE EXPECTED AND THE REGION OF GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD. THUS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE SISKIYOUS AND ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY TO THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
ANOTHER SHIFT IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY...EASTWARD THIS TIME WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY FROM THE
CASCADES EASTWARD. BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG
PICTURE AS THE COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVE TO IDAHO. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. BUT
THE EXTENT OF HEATING WITH HIGHS STILL MAINLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND ALSO LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WARRANTS
INCLUDING MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE AXIS OF THE STRONG RIDGE
MOVES EAST TO THE ROCKIES AND A BROAD TROUGH OFFSHORE APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A REGION OF
DEFORMATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE MONDAY AND BE THE MAIN DRIVER
OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE GFS HAS ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF
BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IN
THESE INSTANCES OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW. THE RESULT WOULD BE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL RATHER THAN A FEW TO SEVERAL BELOW NORMAL.
THE FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IS DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. THEY WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF THE CENTER
OF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE AND DROPS FARTHER SOUTH RESULTING IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY EAST SIDE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS THE MOST LIKELY
SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS AND
FOG ALONG THE CURRY COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING...EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE MORNING AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE COAST DURING THE
EVENING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...VFR EXCEPT MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS OF SOUTHERN OREGON.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
DW
000
FXUS66 KPDT 020954
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
254 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST WILL USHER SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY THAT INCLUDES
CENTRAL OREGON AND OVER THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN THE LATE
AFTN/EVE ACROSS THIS AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE N CALI COAST DRIFTS INLAND. ONCE AGAIN THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHUD PRODUCE AFTN/EVE
TSRA OVER THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND MAY ALSO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE AND WALLOWA MTNS AS WELL. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD A
LITTLE MORE ON SATURDAY DUE A TROUGH DIGGING ALONG 139W. THIS RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE COAST. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY
SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
OREGON MOUNTAINS. A WEAK WAVE MAY KICK EAST FROM THE TROUGH AND KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL DATA INDICATES THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
TROUGH ITSELF MOVING ONSHORE MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS MONDAY. THE MODEL TRENDS THE PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN TO
SLOW THIS SCENARIO SOME WITH EACH RUN. THUS FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS IS WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ONLY LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING IN THIS SCENARIO. 90
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...06Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON CREATED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE NOW MOVED OVER
KRDM. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. A LOW MOVING TOWARDS
THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY WILL SEND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER SOUTHERN OREGON. AFTER 18Z/2ND...FEW-SCT ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KRDM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 95 60 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 92 61 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 96 56 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 92 59 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 96 55 98 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 92 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 94 47 94 47 / 10 20 10 10
LGD 91 53 91 54 / 10 0 20 10
GCD 94 53 93 55 / 10 10 20 20
DLS 96 58 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/90/90
000
FXUS66 KPQR 020933
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
WARM UPPER RIDGE HOLDING INTO SUNDAY OR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THROUGH WESTERN OREGON TODAY AND THIS
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. WEAKLY ONSHORE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST. HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE TODAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT INTO THE 4TH
LATER.
MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STARMER
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUN AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CONVECTIVE THREAT TO THE CASCADES SUN...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TW
&&
.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES
WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN CURRENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER SW OREGON
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY N WINDS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR 7 TO 9 FT
THOUGH PERIODS ARE NEAR 7 SECONDS AND WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY SEAS.
THERMAL LOW SHIFTS INLAND ON FRI...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR FRI AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS65 KBOI 020922
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WRAPPING AROUND A FOUR
CORNERS HIGH. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM INITIATION.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS OF
OREGON AND IDAHO...SPREADING FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO ON FRIDAY. LOWER LEVELS WILL START OUT
DRY AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE...
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TODAY WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
PEAKING. TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS KEEPING MIN TEMPS UP...THOUGH THIS SAME CLOUD COVER AND
GREATER THUNDERSTORM AREAL COVERAGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS
ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AS IT SLOWLY WORKS INLAND. THE GFS BRINGS IT INLAND FURTHER
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER SOLUTION WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND AN ABOVE NORMAL THREAT OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS VFR CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS
FROM NEAR KBNO TO KJER WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z TODAY FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE TREASURE VALLEY AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE MOST
PART...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS...OTHERWISE LIGHT
WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...DF
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
000
FXUS66 KPDT 020549 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1045 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED FROM CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
TODAY AROUND 3 PM PDT. THE STORMS PEAKED IN STRENGTH AND WERE
CAPABLE OF CREATING SMALL HAIL...AROUND 5 PM PDT. THE STORMS THEN
WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED NORTH INTO DRIER AIR. THE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY...BUT WILL END
SOON AS THE SUN SETS...AND WILL NOT REACH DESCHUTES COUNTY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY REACHED
CENTRAL DESCHUTES COUNTY AND WILL PROBABLY PROGRESS AS FAR NORTH AS
WHEELER AND GRANT COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING 2 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SPOKANE
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS WELL. AS SUCH...THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IS ON
TRACK. THERE WILL BE MODERATE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH MANY RIDGES A BIT WARMER THAN NEARBY VALLEYS. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 80
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN OREGON CREATED
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE NOW MOVED OVER KRDM. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. A LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST ON THURSDAY WILL SEND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON. AFTER 18Z/2ND...FEW-SCT ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR KRDM. 80
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PRESSURE
PATTERN HAS SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL OREGON LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING...THUS
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GFS MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ENERGY THAT BREAKS AWAY
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING
THAT COULD TRIGGER HIGH BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING IN
CENTRAL OREGON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME STABLE BY LATE EVENING SO
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AROUND OR SOON AFTER SUNSET. FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON EASTWARD TO THE ELKHORN
AND SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. BARELY ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...SO A CASE CAN BE
MADE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
CURRENTLY NEAR 150W IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING EAST
TO 135W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BACK FLOW
ALOFT TO THE SOUTH AGAIN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOISTEN UP ON
SATURDAY AND THUS SHOULD BE WETTER. POLAN
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE INVERTED SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SW SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND A FEW WEAK
WAVES PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION OF THE
PARENT LOW. THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 95 57 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 54 92 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 50 96 55 99 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 56 92 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 49 96 54 98 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 48 92 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 43 95 46 94 / 0 10 20 10
LGD 46 91 52 91 / 0 10 0 20
GCD 51 94 52 93 / 0 10 10 20
DLS 52 96 57 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
80
000
FXUS66 KPQR 020354
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST EVENING. THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY RISE
TO AROUND 18 TO 20C...SUPPORTING INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S.
A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS EXPECTED ON FRI...BUT PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURS
AND FRI. MODELS INDICATE A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALONG
COASTAL AREA ON FRI...BUT NO PENETRATION INLAND...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WARM TEMPS INLAND ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 ONCE AGAIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY TO BEGIN A COOL
DOWN.
THE COAST WILL BE A GREAT PLACE FOR THOSE WANTING A BREAK FROM THE
HEAT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...BUT BREEZY WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S ON THE NORTH COAST AND 60S ON THE CENTRAL
COAST.
MOST CONVECTIVE THREATS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB OVER NW
OREGON/SW WASHINGTON.
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUN AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CONVECTIVE THREAT TO THE CASCADES SUN...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TW
&&
.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES
WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN CURRENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER SW OREGON
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY N WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THU. SHOULD
HAVE A LULL IN WINDS NEARSHORE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT AGAIN BY DAYBREAK THU. SEAS WILL ALSO STAY UP AROUND
9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERMAL LOW SHIFTS
INLAND ON FRI...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR FRI
AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE THROUGH THU.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 3 AM THU.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS65 KBOI 020336
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
935 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO NEVADA BORDER
AND SOUTHERN OREGON WEAKENING. STORMS ENCOUNTERING VERY DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH ALONG A DEFORMATION AXIS AND THE LOSS OF HEATING...AS
THESE ARE MAINLY THERMALLY DRIVEN. STORMS TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX AND DEEPER MOISTURE...THUS WERE
MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONG TO SEVERE. ADJACENT OFFICES AT
POCATELLO...ELKO AND SALT LAKE ALL ISSUING SVR`S ON THIS ACTIVITY.
WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS AS THEY ARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY
CELL DURING THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH.
THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING FOR US DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW OFFSHORE AND THE LARGE HOT RIDGE IN THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WILL ACT TO CHANNEL DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT VALUES CLIMBING
STEADILY INTO FRIDAY AND OVERALL INSTABILITY BECOMES WIDER IN AREAL
EXTENT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY WITH
TRENDS IN GRIDS AND FORECASTS SHOWING THIS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TONIGHT WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH
OF KBNO-KMUO-KTWF LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. REMNANTS OF CONVECTION WILL
PRODUCE MID-HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS AOA 15K FEET MSL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SE ORE. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TOMORROW WITH FOCUS OVER SW ID MTNS AND SE OREGON. FOR LOWER SW ID
VALLEYS BEST CHANCE IS EAST OF KMUO. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE
MTNS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ONCE AGAIN...THE TREND
WILL BE FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THEREFORE INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH FRIDAY. PW VALUES WERE DOWN THIS
MORNING...IN THE 0.25 TO 0.35 INCH RANGE. BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE TO NEAR A HALF INCH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES BY FRIDAY. WITH A RIDGE AXIS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE OVERNIGHT MINS WILL INCREASE AS SFC
MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS
THE PATTERN EVOLVES. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN LACKING...
WITH THE USUAL TENDENCY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE.
SO WE WEIGHTED OUR FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF...THE SLOWEST AVAILABLE
MODEL AND THE BEST VERIFICATION RECORD. THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH OTHER
MODELS...BRINGS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH INLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SOLUTION GOES AGAINST SUMMER CLIMATOLOGY WHICH
FAVORS TROUGHS ANCHORING OFFSHORE...BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE RECURRING
PATTERN OF LAST MONTH. WITH ALL MODELS IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE
AGREEMENT WE ARE TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL STARTING
TUESDAY. POPS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL HAVE
LIMITED RH AND DYNAMICS...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE HAVING RETREATED FAR
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...GS
PREV DISCUSSION...SP
LONG TERM....JT/BB
AVIATION.....DG
000
FXUS66 KPDT 020309
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
805 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED FROM CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
TODAY AROUND 3 PM PDT. THE STORMS PEAKED IN STRENGTH AND WERE
CAPABLE OF CREATING SMALL HAIL...AROUND 5 PM PDT. THE STORMS THEN
WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED NORTH INTO DRIER AIR. THE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF DESCHUTES COUNTY...BUT WILL END
SOON AS THE SUN SETS...AND WILL NOT REACH DESCHUTES COUNTY.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY REACHED
CENTRAL DESCHUTES COUNTY AND WILL PROBABLY PROGRESS AS FAR NORTH AS
WHEELER AND GRANT COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING 2 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SPOKANE
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS WELL. AS SUCH...THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IS ON
TRACK. THERE WILL BE MODERATE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH MANY RIDGES A BIT WARMER THAN NEARBY VALLEYS. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 80
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PRESSURE
PATTERN HAS SET UP A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL OREGON LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING...THUS
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GFS MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING INTO CENTRAL OREGON THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ENERGY THAT BREAKS AWAY
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING
THAT COULD TRIGGER HIGH BASED DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING IN
CENTRAL OREGON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME STABLE BY LATE EVENING SO
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AROUND OR SOON AFTER SUNSET. FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH BASE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL OREGON EASTWARD TO THE ELKHORN
AND SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. BARELY ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...SO A CASE CAN BE
MADE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
CURRENTLY NEAR 150W IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING EAST
TO 135W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BACK FLOW
ALOFT TO THE SOUTH AGAIN OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOISTEN UP ON
SATURDAY AND THUS SHOULD BE WETTER. POLAN
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN HOT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE INVERTED SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SW SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON
MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND A FEW WEAK
WAVES PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION OF THE
PARENT LOW. THE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
JOHNSON
AVIATION...00Z TAFS. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES. A LOW MOVING
TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON THURSDAY WILL SEND SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AFTER 18Z/2ND...FEW-SCT ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KRDM. JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 95 57 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 54 92 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 50 96 55 99 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 56 92 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 49 96 54 98 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 48 92 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 43 95 46 94 / 0 10 20 10
LGD 46 91 52 91 / 0 10 0 20
GCD 51 94 52 93 / 0 10 10 20
DLS 52 96 57 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
THURSDAY : GREEN
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
80
000
FXUS66 KMFR 020300
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...02/00Z NAM IN.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED TODAY OVER SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTIES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND OVER SOUTHERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME BUT OVERALL
ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING.
THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT
BACK UP INTO THE WESTERLIES THROUGH SATURDAY...AND IT IS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW THAT IS ADVECTING THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS FORMED UNDER A DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT...WHICH
PROVIDED THE DIFLUENCE FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THAT IS
THE TYPICAL RECIPE FOR SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. ADD
MONSOONAL MOISTURE...TURN ON THE HEAT...AND STIR VIGOROUSLY. THE
TRIGGER IS NOT ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY BUT IT HELPS ORGANIZE WHAT
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AND CAN MAKE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
THIS IS ONLY THE FIRST DAY OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN EXTENDED RUN OF
THUNDERSTORMS. FUELS ARE NOT QUITE DRY ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG
WARNINGS...BUT IF THIS OCCURS TWO WEEKS FROM NOW THERE MAY WELL BE
SOME WARNINGS THEN.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW BUT THEY
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF A TRIGGER. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY.
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE IN OVER THE AREA...BRINGING IN DRIER AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFD...MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BUT ARE IN ROUGH
AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUING TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS ARE SPREADING NORTH ALONG
THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP IT FROM MOVING BEYOND CAPE BLANCO THROUGH THURSDAY...SO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO.
INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR
ISOLD MVFR CIGS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED NEAR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM
PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-
PZZ356.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ370.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
15/15/15
| 
