[top]
000
FXUS61 KCTP 040202
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1002 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM TO SUMMERLIKE READINGS NEXT WEEK...BUT MORE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TROUGH OFF TO THE E...AND CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER ERN OH
AND IN THE DOWNSLOPE OF THE ALLEGHENIES. EXPECT ANY LINGERING
SPRINKLES/WEAK SHRA TO DIMINISH SHORTLY...BUT WILL JUST MENTION A
SPRINKLE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT IN THE N AND W.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDS (PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 5-7F) FOR
SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD THRU NEW ENG.
HAVE GONE WITH JUST A SLGHT CHC OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO REMOVE EVEN THIS LOW CHC...AS THE MEAN OF
THE FAIRLY SIMILAR 12Z NAM/GFS KEEPS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
LIGHT/LEADING EDGE PRECIP TO THE WEST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. 09Z SREF IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THESE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
LIGHT QPF.
HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON
SATURDAY A BIT LOWER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST...SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST CLOSELY. GENERALLY A SCT-BKN MID
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S BY LATE EVENING. THIS COULD MEAN SOMEWHAT CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR
4TH OF JULY FIREWORK VIEWING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL HOLD
TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...CENTERED ALONG THE 305K THETA SFC WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE NRN EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
(WITH SVRL HUNDREDTHS TO 0.10" QPF) AS FAR NORTH AS I-76 OR ROUTE
22/322.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY...BUT A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BENEATH A POOL OF COOL 700 MB TEMPS OF JUST +1-2C.
TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70-73 ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND 75 TO 79F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA.
GEFS MEANS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER
HEIGHTS LIFTING NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS...WHICH MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
HEADED OUR WAY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATE DAY CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AND EVEN CONTINUE TO
REGENERATE OVER THE REGIN. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...MVFR CIGS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS OF KBFD AND KJST. AS UPPER COLD POOL
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY...AND LAST VESTAGES OF DIURNAL
HEATING FADE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CU TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE...AND REMAINING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROF RELAXES. STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW...BUT NO PCPN.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND LIMITED CHANCES OF PCPN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU WED...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/TYBURSKI
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 040126
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE POPCORN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE GONE COMPLETELY BY 9 OR 10 PM. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS FROM 8 TO 10 PM TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NORTHERN AREAS SINCE THERE COULD STILL BE A LINGERING SHOWER IN
THOSE AREAS AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST
LOOKS ON TARGET WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SHOWERS TODAY, BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING, IT SHOULD NOT GET
TOO BAD, AND I HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SAT THE 4TH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S UP NORTH AND LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO THE SW
SAT MORNING AND IT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.
A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SAT MORNING AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
RATHER FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SHEAR OUT AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH LATER SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
IT IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING EXTRA CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND A CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
FCST FOR NOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. THE LATEST (00Z) ECMWF AND
12Z GFS BOTH SHOW A CLOSE PASS (THE GFS IS CLOSER) AND IT IS
THOUGHT TO BE PRUDENT TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT, SO 4TH OF
JULY ACTIVITIES SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING. THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY LOOKS BENIGN AT THIS POINT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA. AT 12Z MON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
ONTARIO AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE WEEK TO EVENTUALLY TRACK OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENINGS WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE TOO. THE POPS IN THE PRESENT
FCST ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE FOR NOW BUT THEY
MAY TREND UPWARD WITH FUTURE FCSTS ONCE THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SW/S BECOMES BETTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL MON-WED WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES.
THE LAST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MORE LIKE TYPICAL
MIDDLE ATLANTIC SUMMER WEATHER. THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
BOTH DEVELOP A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING H8 TEMPS
TOO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 BY THIS TIME
NEXT WEEK ACROSS METRO PHILADELPHIA AND THE DELMARVA. THE THU-FRI
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH
MOST ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING QUICKLY ESPECIALLY PAST HOUR.
A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE BUT DIMINISH AROUND 5 KNOTS
NEXT HOUR.
DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A WEST WIND AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 9 PM THE SEAS ARE 2 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS AT BUOY 44009 AND ONLY
1 FOOT IN THE DELAWARE BAY.
THE WEATHER IS GOING TO BE VERY GOOD FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY, BUT
CAUTION IS ADVISED ON THE WATERS BECAUSE OF THE VOLUME OF VESSELLS
OUT THERE. REMEMBER TO HAVE A PDF FOR EACH PERSON ON THE BOAT.
FOR MARINERS HEADING OUT TO THE CANYONS, THE WEATHER ALSO LOOKS
GOOD BUT CHECK THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTERS WEB SITE FOR THE
COMPLETE FORECAST. WWW.OPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FOR SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO
OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH THE HOLIDAY HERE, BE SURE TO CHECK THE SURF CONDITIONS BEFORE
GOING INTO THE WATER AND NEVER SWIM ALONE, AT NIGHT OR UNGUARDED
BEACHES. A SURF FORECAST IS ISSUED EVERY DAY BY OUR OFFICE AROUND
5 OR 6 AM AND DETAILS THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR EACH DAY. YOU CAN
OBTAIN A TEXT AS WELL AS GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE FORECAT BY
GOING TO OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI AND THEN CLICK ON
THE LITTLE SWIMMER AT THE VERY TOP.
HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/RPW
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...EBERWINE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/EBRWINE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 040040
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
840 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON DRIFT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A WELCOME PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT UPPER JET IS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY NUMEROUS/ALBEIT BRIEF...MDT RAIN SHOWERS. A 75-100 MI LONG
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL WAS PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND
ADJACENT SCENT MTNS.
STEADY...SE MVMT (20-25 MPH) TO THIS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BAND WILL HAVE IT AFFECTING THE ECENT MTNS AND POINTS EAST OF
KMDT/KMUI BETWEEN 2030Z AND 23Z.
ADDITIONAL...BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 23Z WILL BE AROUND 1 TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE CWA...WITH 4 TENTHS ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND SE ZONES.
TEMPS THAT MADE A VALIANT ATTEMPT TO WARM TOWARD NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES...WILL BE ABRUPTLY KNOCKED BACK DOWN BY 10 TO 15
DEG F IN A MATTER OF MINUTES...AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS CROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS LATE TODAY AREAWIDE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE SE/SCENT VALLEYS
STAYING/OR REBOUNDING FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LOWER 70S.
PRECIP DIMINISHES/EXITS TO THE SE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER VORT LOBE IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA/NEW YORK STATE THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL
KEEP LOW CHC POPS GOING UP THERE THRU MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...HIGH
PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
MTNS WILL LIKELY YIELD PERSISTENT STRATOCU OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
LOCALIZED 1/4-1/2SM FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z TONIGHT IN PLACES
THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WIND.
MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE
FAR NW...TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDS (PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 5-7F) FOR
SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD THRU NEW ENG.
HAVE GONE WITH JUST A SLGHT CHC OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO REMOVE EVEN THIS LOW CHC...AS THE MEAN OF
THE FAIRLY SIMILAR 12Z NAM/GFS KEEPS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
LIGHT/LEADING EDGE PRECIP TO THE WEST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. 09Z SREF IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THESE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
LIGHT QPF.
HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON
SATURDAY A BIT LOWER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST...SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST CLOSELY. GENERALLY A SCT-BKN MID
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S BY LATE EVENING. THIS COULD MEAN SOMEWHAT CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR
4TH OF JULY FIREWORK VIEWING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL HOLD
TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...CENTERED ALONG THE 305K THETA SFC WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE NRN EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
(WITH SVRL HUNDREDTHS TO 0.10" QPF) AS FAR NORTH AS I-76 OR ROUTE
22/322.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY...BUT A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BENEATH A POOL OF COOL 700 MB TEMPS OF JUST +1-2C.
TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70-73 ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND 75 TO 79F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA.
GEFS MEANS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER
HEIGHTS LIFTING NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS...WHICH MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
HEADED OUR WAY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATE DAY CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AND EVEN CONTINUE TO
REGENERATE OVER THE REGIN. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...MVFR CIGS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS OF KBFD AND KJST. AS UPPER COLD POOL
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY...AND LAST VESTAGES OF DIURNAL
HEATING FADE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CU TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE...AND REMAINING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN
END.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
TROF RELAXES. STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW...BUT NO PCPN.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS...AND LIMITED CHANCES OF PCPN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN THRU WED...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...JUNG/TYBURSKI
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032338
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CAUSED
THE RECENT SPELL OF COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY
LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO MOVING
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SHOWERS
TO LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS STUBBORNLY REFUSED TO EXIT THE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WX FOR EVENING PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL
BE SHOVED OUT BY A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL RESTRICT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OH AND WV COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM MOST RECENT NAM AND SREF MODEL RUNS...STILL EXPECT
INTERSTATE 70 TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM MODEL RUN HAS ALSO
SUGGESTED THERE IS A CHANCE OF A POST SYSTEM CONVERGENCE BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY DAYTIME SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME MONDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SREF MODEL MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW
THIS...SO ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THIS
PERIOD TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD BUT TOO HARD TO TIME TO INCLUDE NO HIGHER MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. GENERAL VFR CONDTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
JUST A FEW SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION MIGHT BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 032310
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
710 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
AWAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE POPCORN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE GONE COMPLETELY BY 9 OR 10 PM. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDS FROM 8 TO 10 PM TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHERN AREAS
SINCE THERE COULD STILL BE A LINGERING SHOWER IN THOSE AREAS AT
THAT TIME. OTHERWISE THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET
WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THERE
MAY BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS
TODAY, BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING, IT SHOULD NOT GET TOO
BAD, AND I HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SAT THE 4TH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S UP NORTH AND LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO THE SW
SAT MORNING AND IT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.
A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SAT MORNING AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
RATHER FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SHEAR OUT AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH LATER SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
IT IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING EXTRA CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND A CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
FCST FOR NOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. THE LATEST (00Z) ECMWF AND
12Z GFS BOTH SHOW A CLOSE PASS (THE GFS IS CLOSER) AND IT IS
THOUGHT TO BE PRUDENT TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT, SO 4TH OF
JULY ACTIVITIES SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING. THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY LOOKS BENIGN AT THIS POINT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA. AT 12Z MON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
ONTARIO AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE WEEK TO EVENTUALLY TRACK OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENINGS WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE TOO. THE POPS IN THE PRESENT
FCST ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE FOR NOW BUT THEY
MAY TREND UPWARD WITH FUTURE FCSTS ONCE THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SW/S BECOMES BETTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL MON-WED WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES.
THE LAST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MORE LIKE TYPICAL
MIDDLE ATLANTIC SUMMER WEATHER. THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
BOTH DEVELOP A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING H8 TEMPS
TOO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 BY THIS TIME
NEXT WEEK ACROSS METRO PHILADELPHIA AND THE DELMARVA. THE THU-FRI
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH
MOST ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING QUICKLY ESPECIALLY PAST HOUR.
A WESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE BUT DIMINISH AROUND 5 KNOTS
NEXT HOUR.
DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A WEST WIND AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NEW WEEK.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/RPW
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...EBERWINE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 032217 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CAUSED
THE RECENT SPELL OF COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY
LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO MOVING
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SHOWERS
TO LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS STUBBORNLY REFUSED TO EXIT THE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WX FOR EVENING PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL
BE SHOVED OUT BY A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL RESTRICT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OH AND WV COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM MOST RECENT NAM AND SREF MODEL RUNS...STILL EXPECT
INTERSTATE 70 TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM MODEL RUN HAS ALSO
SUGGESTED THERE IS A CHANCE OF A POST SYSTEM CONVERGENCE BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY DAYTIME SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME MONDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SREF MODEL MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW
THIS...SO ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THIS
PERIOD TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD BUT TOO HARD TO TIME TO INCLUDE NO HIGHER MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE WEEK. &&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...STILL THINK THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS IN TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL SIMPLY
INCLUDE SCATTERED CIGS TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE REGION MIGHT BRING MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031936
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
336 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS CAUSED
THE RECENT SPELL OF COOL SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY
LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM COLORADO MOVING
THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY BRING SHOWERS
TO LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS STUBBORNLY REFUSED TO EXIT THE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER SPRINKLES
AND SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL
BE SHOVED OUT BY A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT THE BEST FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL RESTRICT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OH AND WV COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM MOST RECENT NAM AND SREF MODEL RUNS...STILL EXPECT
INTERSTATE 70 TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM MODEL RUN HAS ALSO
SUGGESTED THERE IS A CHANCE OF A POST SYSTEM CONVERGENCE BAND OF
SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY DAYTIME SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
DAYTIME MONDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SREF MODEL MEMBERS DO NOT SHOW
THIS...SO ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE THIS
PERIOD TO BE GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD BUT TOO HARD TO TIME TO INCLUDE NO HIGHER MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE LATE WEEK. &&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...STILL THINK
THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS IN
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL SIMPLY INCLUDE SCATTERED CIGS TO HINT AT
THIS POSSIBILITY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE AT ZZV...HLG...AND MGW...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING
SOUTH OF THE REGION MIGHT BRING MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 031932
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
332 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON DRIFT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A WELCOME PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT UPPER JET IS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY NUMEROUS/ALBEIT BRIEF...MDT RAIN SHOWERS. A 75-100 MI LONG
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL WAS PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND
ADJACENT SCENT MTNS.
STEADY...SE MVMT (20-25 MPH) TO THIS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BAND WILL HAVE IT AFFECTING THE ECENT MTNS AND POINTS EAST OF
KMDT/KMUI BETWEEN 2030Z AND 23Z.
ADDITIONAL...BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 23Z WILL BE AROUND 1 TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE CWA...WITH 4 TENTHS ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND SE ZONES.
TEMPS THAT MADE A VALIANT ATTEMPT TO WARM TOWARD NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES...WILL BE ABRUPTLY KNOCKED BACK DOWN BY 10 TO 15
DEG F IN A MATTER OF MINUTES...AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS CROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS LATE TODAY AREAWIDE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE SE/SCENT VALLEYS
STAYING/OR REBOUNDING FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LOWER 70S.
PRECIP DIMINISHES/EXITS TO THE SE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER VORT LOBE IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA/NEW YORK STATE THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL
KEEP LOW CHC POPS GOING UP THERE THRU MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...HIGH
PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
MTNS WILL LIKELY YIELD PERSISTENT STRATOCU OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
LOCALIZED 1/4-1/2SM FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z TONIGHT IN PLACES
THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WIND.
MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE
FAR NW...TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDS (PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 5-7F) FOR
SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD THRU NEW ENG.
HAVE GONE WITH JUST A SLGHT CHC OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO REMOVE EVEN THIS LOW CHC...AS THE MEAN OF
THE FAIRLY SIMILAR 12Z NAM/GFS KEEPS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
LIGHT/LEADING EDGE PRECIP TO THE WEST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. 09Z SREF IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THESE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
LIGHT QPF.
HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON
SATURDAY A BIT LOWER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST...SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST CLOSELY. GENERALLY A SCT-BKN MID
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S BY LATE EVENING. THIS COULD MEAN SOMEWHAT CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR
4TH OF JULY FIREWORK VIEWING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL HOLD
TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...CENTERED ALONG THE 305K THETA SFC WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE NRN EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
(WITH SVRL HUNDREDTHS TO 0.10" QPF) AS FAR NORTH AS I-76 OR ROUTE
22/322.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY...BUT A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BENEATH A POOL OF COOL 700 MB TEMPS OF JUST +1-2C.
TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70-73 ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND 75 TO 79F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA.
GEFS MEANS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER
HEIGHTS LIFTING NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS...WHICH MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
HEADED OUR WAY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA. GENERALLY ONLY A BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER...KUNV DID SEE A QUICK GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT ONLY LASTER FOR 10 MINUTES. DO NOT WANT TO
BRING ANY SITE DOWN TO IFR FOR A 10 MINUTE PERIOD SO LEFT VCSH IN
ALL SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ALONG WITH UPPER COLD POOL
RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE TO GOOD VFR SATURDAY AM
AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AN EXTENDED STRETCH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU WED...GOOD VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 031915
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
AWAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE POPCORN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS CAPES DIMINISH AND THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MAINLY CLR AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SHOWERS TODAY, BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING, IT SHOULD NOT GET
TOO BAD, AND I HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN
MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SAT THE 4TH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S UP NORTH AND LOW
80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO THE SW
SAT MORNING AND IT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.
A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SAT MORNING AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE
RATHER FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SHEAR OUT AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH LATER SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
IT IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING EXTRA CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND A CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
FCST FOR NOW. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. THE LATEST (00Z) ECMWF AND
12Z GFS BOTH SHOW A CLOSE PASS (THE GFS IS CLOSER) AND IT IS
THOUGHT TO BE PRUDENT TO AT LEAST INCLUDE A CHC FOR SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT, SO 4TH OF
JULY ACTIVITIES SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING. THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY LOOKS BENIGN AT THIS POINT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA. AT 12Z MON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER
ONTARIO AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE WEEK TO EVENTUALLY TRACK OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWERY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENINGS WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE TOO. THE POPS IN THE PRESENT
FCST ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE FOR NOW BUT THEY
MAY TREND UPWARD WITH FUTURE FCSTS ONCE THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SW/S BECOMES BETTER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL MON-WED WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES.
THE LAST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MORE LIKE TYPICAL
MIDDLE ATLANTIC SUMMER WEATHER. THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
BOTH DEVELOP A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING H8 TEMPS
TOO. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 BY THIS TIME
NEXT WEEK ACROSS METRO PHILADELPHIA AND THE DELMARVA. THE THU-FRI
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. THE DISTURBANCE, IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING, RESULTED IN SOME FAIRLY WELL
DEVELOPED CUMULUS OVER OUR REGION. SOME OF THE CUMULUS WERE
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
AREAS, INCLUDING AROUND KABE, KRDG AND KTTN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DECREASES FROM KPNE AND KPHL SOUTHWARD.
ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR EAST, THE CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
A WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE FOR TONIGHT,
REMAINING LIGHT AND WESTERLY AT SOME LOCATIONS AND BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT OTHERS. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A WEST WIND AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NEW WEEK.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KCTP 031853
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON DRIFT EAST OF OUR REGION LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A WELCOME PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT UPPER JET IS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES ATTM...ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY NUMEROUS/ALBEIT BRIEF...MDT RAIN SHOWERS. A 75-100 MI LONG
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL WAS PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND
ADJACENT SCENT MTNS.
STEADY...SE MVMT (20-25 MPH) TO THIS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BAND WILL HAVE IT AFFECTING THE ECENT MTNS AND POINTS EAST OF
KMDT/KMUI BETWEEN 2030Z AND 23Z.
ADDITIONAL...BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
ABOUT 23Z WILL BE AROUND 1 TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
THE CWA...WITH 4 TENTHS ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND SE ZONES.
TEMPS THAT MADE A VALIANT ATTEMPT TO WARM TOWARD NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES...WILL BE ABRUPTLY KNOCKED BACK DOWN BY 10 TO 15
DEG F IN A MATTER OF MINUTES...AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS CROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS LATE TODAY AREAWIDE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE SE/SCENT VALLEYS
STAYING/OR REBOUNDING FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LOWER 70S.
PRECIP DIMINISHES/EXITS TO THE SE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER VORT LOBE IS PROGGED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA/NEW YORK STATE THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL
KEEP LOW CHC POPS GOING UP THERE THRU MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...HIGH
PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
MTNS WILL LIKELY YIELD PERSISTENT STRATOCU OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
LOCALIZED 1/4-1/2SM FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z TONIGHT IN PLACES
THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WIND.
MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE
FAR NW...TO BETWEEN 55 AND 60 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDS (PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 5-7F) FOR
SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD THRU NEW ENG.
HAVE GONE WITH JUST A SLGHT CHC OF LATE DAY SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.
LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO REMOVE EVEN THIS LOW CHC...AS THE MEAN OF
THE FAIRLY SIMILAR 12Z NAM/GFS KEEPS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
LIGHT/LEADING EDGE PRECIP TO THE WEST OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. 09Z SREF IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THESE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
LIGHT QPF.
HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON
SATURDAY A BIT LOWER THAN 850 MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST...SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST CLOSELY. GENERALLY A SCT-BKN MID
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
50S BY LATE EVENING. THIS COULD MEAN SOMEWHAT CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR
4TH OF JULY FIREWORK VIEWING. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL HOLD
TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...CENTERED ALONG THE 305K THETA SFC WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENN DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THE NRN EDGE OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
(WITH SVRL HUNDREDTHS TO 0.10" QPF) AS FAR NORTH AS I-76 OR ROUTE
22/322.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY...BUT A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BENEATH A POOL OF COOL 700 MB TEMPS OF JUST +1-2C.
TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70-73 ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND 75 TO 79F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. A MAINLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD
PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA.
DY8+ GEFS MEAN SHOWS BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE PLAINS WHICH
MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK /JULY 10TH/?
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA. GENERALLY ONLY A BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR IN SHOWERS HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER...KUNV DID SEE A QUICK GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT ONLY LASTER FOR 10 MINUTES. DO NOT WANT TO
BRING ANY SITE DOWN TO IFR FOR A 10 MINUTE PERIOD SO LEFT VCSH IN
ALL SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ALONG WITH UPPER COLD POOL
RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE TO GOOD VFR SATURDAY AM
AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AN EXTENDED STRETCH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU WED...GOOD VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TYBURSKI
000
FXUS61 KCTP 031812
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
212 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST LATE TODAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP NICELY SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY AT 15Z. EXPECT THE WELL-ALIGNED WNW BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE TO BRING SOME BANDS OF LAKE
ENHANCED/OROGRAPHIC SHRA TO MAINLY THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH VERY EARLY THIS EVENING.
NAM AND GFS MIXED LAYER CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS (MAINLY SOMERSET CTY) IN THE 18-22Z PERIOD...SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE OFTEN SEE IN COLD SEASON EVENTS. THE TAIL END OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL HELP TO BOOST MU CAPES TO SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG (TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 1000 J/KG) ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SO A BRIEF TSRA IS A LOW
PROBABILITY.
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD SEE A DECREASING TREND
IN THE "GENERALLY SCATTERED" LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MID LEVEL (850-500 MB) LAPSE RATES SLOWLY RELAX
VIA A FEW DEG C OF WARMING IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.
NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE "VERY THIN" CAPE DIMINISHING TO
PRACTICALLY NOTHING BY 22Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES OF THE
CWA.
HOURLY TEMPS FALLING NICELY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND LOCAL
4KM WRF VALUES...SO THERE`S NO REASON TO MAKE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS.
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL
AGAIN TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M60S
ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE MID AND U70S ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
PA/NEW YORK STATE THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS
GOING UP THERE THRU MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL
LIKELY YIELD PERSISTENT STRATOCU OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDS SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW RETREATS
NORTHWARD THRU NEW ENG. HAVE GONE WITH JUST A SLGHT CHC OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGHER MET POPS APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA. HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON SATURDAY A BIT LOWER THAN 850 TEMPS WOULD
SUGGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALL MODEL DATA INDICATING SOUTHERN PA
WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ENSEMBLE DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF THE MAV GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA.
DY8+ GEFS MEAN SHOWS BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE PLAINS WHICH
MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK /JULY 10TH/?
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CHALLENGES FOR THSI FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA. GENERALLY ONLY A BRIEF
DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER...KUNV DID SEE A
QUICK GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT ONLY LASTER FOR 10 MINUTES. DO
NOT WANT TO BRING ANY SITE DOWN TO IFR FOR A 10 MINUTE PERIOD SO
LEFT VCSH IN ALL SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ALONG WITH UPPER COLD POOL
RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE TO GOOD VFR SATURDAY AM
AND REAMIN THAT WAY FOR AN EXTENDED STRETCH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU WED...GOOD VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TYBURSKI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 031743
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
140 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MAINLY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL SWING PAST THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY AGAIN AFFECT OUR
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PASS OFF THE COAST BY 300 PM. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES
A BIT.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN OUR REGION, WITH A WEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST AFTER
WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS, THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALSO, DEW POINTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, SO IT SHOULD NOT
BE VERY HUMID EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO TRY
AND WORK THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL COVER THIS FOR NOW, IF INDEED THAT HAPPENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS TO SWEEP DOWN TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER
LOWS CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-CONNECTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO GOING ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW AS THE DETAILS ARE STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH FEW...IF ANY...DAYS
WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. THE
DISTURBANCE, IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING, HAS RESULTED IN
SOME FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS OVER OUR REGION. SOME OF THE
CUMULUS WERE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING KABE, KRDG
AND KTTN. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DECREASES FROM KPNE AND KPHL
SOUTHWARD.
ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR EAST, THE CUMULUS SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
A WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE FOR TONIGHT,
REMAINING LIGHT AND WESTERLY AT SOME LOCATIONS AND BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT OTHERS. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A WEST WIND AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ONCE THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE LIFT AWAY, BUT SINCE WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL TURN A BIT UNSETTLED. WE DO NOT, HOWEVER, FORECAST THAT AT THIS
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM LATER TODAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DITTO FOR
SEAS. WE DON`T ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM.../ O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 031522
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1122 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN. THE COMBINATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MOST PA COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS PERSISTED A BIT MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SEE NO REASON THAT THIS SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH MUCH BEFORE THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS IN WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH. LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW RUNNING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS WEEKEND...ANY RIPPLES ON THIS
WAVE TO THE NORTH...COLD PUSH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA
MORE IN LINE WITH PIT TO IND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAXES
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND A NORTHWEST ORIENTED 500H
PATTERN...EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF WET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY ONE
FEATURE AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL KEEP CURRENT DRY TREND GOING FOR
THE PERIOD...WITH LATER FORECASTS REFINING TIMING ON PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THIS UPCOMING
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO DEGRADED
CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS THAT ALL IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
LIFTED...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
TONIGHT...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR PORTS TO THE SOUTH OF PIT WHERE CROSSING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/MVFR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 031505
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1105 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST LATE TODAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP NICELY SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY AT 15Z. EXPECT THE WELL-ALIGNED WNW BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE TO BRING SOME BANDS OF LAKE
ENHANCED/OROGRAPHIC SHRA TO MAINLY THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH VERY EARLY THIS EVENING.
NAM AND GFS MIXED LAYER CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS (MAINLY SOMERSET CTY) IN THE 18-22Z PERIOD...SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE OFTEN SEE IN COLD SEASON EVENTS. THE TAIL END OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL HELP TO BOOST MU CAPES TO SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG (TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS AROUND 1000 J/KG) ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...SO A BRIEF TSRA IS A LOW
PROBABILITY.
THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD SEE A DECREASING TREND
IN THE "GENERALLY SCATTERED" LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MID LEVEL (850-500 MB) LAPSE RATES SLOWLY RELAX
VIA A FEW DEG C OF WARMING IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.
NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE "VERY THIN" CAPE DIMINISHING TO
PRACTICALLY NOTHING BY 22Z ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES OF THE
CWA.
HOURLY TEMPS FALLING NICELY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND LOCAL
4KM WRF VALUES...SO THERE`S NO REASON TO MAKE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS.
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL
AGAIN TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M60S
ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE MID AND U70S ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
PA/NEW YORK STATE THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS
GOING UP THERE THRU MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL
LIKELY YIELD PERSISTENT STRATOCU OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDS SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW RETREATS
NORTHWARD THRU NEW ENG. HAVE GONE WITH JUST A SLGHT CHC OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGHER MET POPS APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA. HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON SATURDAY A BIT LOWER THAN 850 TEMPS WOULD
SUGGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALL MODEL DATA INDICATING SOUTHERN PA
WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ENSEMBLE DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF THE MAV GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA.
DY8+ GEFS MEAN SHOWS BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE PLAINS WHICH
MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK /JULY 10TH/?
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR TODAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY AS STRATOCU IN PLACE WITH A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MAINLY
FOR THE NW HALF OF CWA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR AFTER 21Z.
SOME LIGHT FOG AND STRATOCU REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TREND OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND SUNRISE EACH DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU TUE...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 031440 RRA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1040 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MAINLY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL SWING PAST THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY AGAIN AFFECT OUR
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE
THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT NOON AND 300 PM. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR REGION, AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES A BIT.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN OUR REGION, WITH A WEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST AFTER
WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS, THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALSO, DEW POINTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, SO IT SHOULD NOT
BE VERY HUMID EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO TRY
AND WORK THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL COVER THIS FOR NOW, IF INDEED THAT HAPPENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS TO SWEEP DOWN TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER
LOWS CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-CONNECTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO GOING ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW AS THE DETAILS ARE STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH FEW...IF ANY...DAYS
WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH TODAY WITH THE APPARENT LOSS OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WELL BEFORE 00Z. THERE
MAY BE A BIT MORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAN PROGGED IF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH CAN CAUSE A LITTLE BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS,
BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT. INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TODAY, BUT IT
IS NOT ROBUST. FACTORS DO NOT SEEM TO COME TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY TO
GO WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH GUIDANCE POPS, AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN LIMITING OUR MENTION OF
CONVECTION TO VCTS AND CB FOR THE TWO NORTHERN SITES AND CB FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY SITES. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF IT
OUT OF THE TWO SOUTHERN SITES. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. ALL THIS SPELLS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ONCE THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE LIFT AWAY, BUT SINCE WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL TURN A BIT UNSETTLED. WE DO NOT, HOWEVER, FORECAST THAT AT THIS
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM LATER TODAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DITTO FOR
SEAS. WE DON`T ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM.../ O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 031440
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1040 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MAINLY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL SWING PAST THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY AGAIN AFFECT OUR
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE
THIS MORNING WILL PASS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THE UPPER DELMARVA
AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN ABOUT NOON AND 300 PM. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN OUR REGION, AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES A BIT.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S IN OUR REGION, WITH A WEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST AFTER
WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS, THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALSO, DEW POINTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, SO IT SHOULD NOT
BE VERY HUMID EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO TRY
AND WORK THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL COVER THIS FOR NOW, IF INDEED THAT HAPPENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS TO SWEEP DOWN TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER
LOWS CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-CONNECTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO GOING ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW AS THE DETAILS ARE STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH FEW...IF ANY...DAYS
WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH TODAY WITH THE APPARENT LOSS OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WELL BEFORE 00Z. THERE
MAY BE A BIT MORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAN PROGGED IF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH CAN CAUSE A LITTLE BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS,
BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT. INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TODAY, BUT IT
IS NOT ROBUST. FACTORS DO NOT SEEM TO COME TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY TO
GO WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH GUIDANCE POPS, AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED
THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN LIMITING OUR MENTION OF
CONVECTION TO VCTS AND CB FOR THE TWO NORTHERN SITES AND CB FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY SITES. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF IT
OUT OF THE TWO SOUTHERN SITES. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH ONLY PARTIAL DECOUPLING AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. ALL THIS SPELLS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ONCE THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE LIFT AWAY, BUT SINCE WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL TURN A BIT UNSETTLED. WE DO NOT, HOWEVER, FORECAST THAT AT THIS
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM LATER TODAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DITTO FOR
SEAS. WE DON`T ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM.../ O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KCTP 031142
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST LATE TODAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NW PENN ATTM.
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE CURRENTLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVR THE NW MTNS.
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF TROF OVR EASTERN PA. BEST CHC OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WILL BE OVR EASTERN PA LATER TDY...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
COINCIDE WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL AGAIN
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M60S ALLEGHENY
MTNS...TO THE U70S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE...CURRENTLY OVR WESTERN ONTARIO...IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING UP THERE
THRU MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY YIELD PERSISTENT
STRATOCU OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDS SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW RETREATS
NORTHWARD THRU NEW ENG. HAVE GONE WITH JUST A SLGHT CHC OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGHER MET POPS APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA. HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON SATURDAY A BIT LOWER THAN 850 TEMPS WOULD
SUGGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALL MODEL DATA INDICATING SOUTHERN PA
WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ENSEMBLE DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF THE MAV GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA.
DY8+ GEFS MEAN SHOWS BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE PLAINS WHICH
MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK /JULY 10TH/?
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR TODAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY AS STRATOCU IN PLACE WITH A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS MAINLY
FOR THE NW HALF OF CWA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE VFR AFTER 21Z.
SOME LIGHT FOG AND STRATOCU REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. TREND OF
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND SUNRISE EACH DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU TUE...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
000
FXUS61 KCTP 030818
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
418 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST LATE TODAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NW PENN ATTM.
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE CURRENTLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVR THE NW MTNS.
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF TROF OVR EASTERN PA. BEST CHC OF SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA WILL BE OVR EASTERN PA LATER TDY...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL
COINCIDE WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL AGAIN
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M60S ALLEGHENY
MTNS...TO THE U70S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE...CURRENTLY OVR WESTERN ONTARIO...IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING UP THERE
THRU MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY YIELD PERSISTENT
STRATOCU OVR THE ALLEGHENIES.
EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDS SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW RETREATS
NORTHWARD THRU NEW ENG. HAVE GONE WITH JUST A SLGHT CHC OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGHER MET POPS APPEAR UNLIKELY BASED ON
ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA. HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON SATURDAY A BIT LOWER THAN 850 TEMPS WOULD
SUGGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALL MODEL DATA INDICATING SOUTHERN PA
WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. ENSEMBLE DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF THE MAV GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS BROAD
TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD PRODUCE SCT MAINLY AFTN SHRA.
DY8+ GEFS MEAN SHOWS BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE PLAINS WHICH
MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK /JULY 10TH/?
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING A A BAND OF RAIN
INTO NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE RAIN...CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR/MVFR
BEFORE STRATOCU AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
BRINGING MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...THOUGH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY MVFR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU TUE...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 030745
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MAINLY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL SWING PAST THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY AGAIN AFFECT OUR
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY AND INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME PRETTY GOOD CYCLONIC CURVATURE
WITH IT, AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ONCE AGAIN. IN CASE
THERE IS ANY ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
WAS INCLUDED NORTH AND CENTRAL, BUT MOST OF WHATEVER ACTION
OCCURS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
NAM POPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS POPS, WITH LIKELY PROGGED; FOR NOW,
THE GFS WAS PREFERRED, AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WORKING BETTER
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY RIPE, AND MODEL
CAPES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH, WITH THE GFS CAPES EVEN HIGHER THAN
THE NAM. SO, IT WAS DECIDED TO FORECAST SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL, SHADING DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH. PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. THE FURTHER NORTH ONE
GOES, AND CLOSER TO THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH,
HIGHER INTESITY STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. INDEED, SPC HAS PLACED
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE EASTERN NEW YORK IN A
"SEE TEXT" AREA, MAINTAINING THAT THE "SETUP SHOULD YIELD A
RELATIVELY SHORT-DURATION WINDOW FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON" THERE.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION
WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MORE CUMULUS WILL BE FORMING
THIS MORNING OR BY MIDDAY, SO PARTLY SUNNY WAS USED FOR SKY COVER.
MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, WITH LESS CLOUDINESS FAR SOUTH.
THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS TEMPERATURES WERE PREFERRED IN THIS
WESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST AFTER
WHATEVER CONVECTION OCCURS, THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALSO, DEW POINTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH, SO IT SHOULD NOT
BE VERY HUMID EITHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES, AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS TO TRY
AND WORK THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL COVER THIS FOR NOW, IF INDEED THAT HAPPENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OR FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS TO SWEEP DOWN TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER
LOWS CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-CONNECTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO GOING ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW AS THE DETAILS ARE STILL
QUITE UNCERTAIN. A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH FEW...IF ANY...DAYS
WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRACTICALLY ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WERE NOT DECOUPLING COMPLETELY. SO FAR, WE`VE SEEN
SOME MVFR FOG AT ABE AND RDG, BUT WITH A BIT OF MIXING WE MAY HAVE
TO AMEND TO REMOVE THE SPOTTY AND MAINLY MVFR FOG THAT WE HAVE BEEN
CARRYING EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. WE WILL MONITOR.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH TODAY WITH THE APPARENT LOSS OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WELL BEFORE 00Z. THERE
MAY BE A BIT MORE SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAN PROGGED IF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH CAN CAUSE A LITTLE BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS,
BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT. INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TODAY, BUT IT
IS NOT ROBUST. FACTORS DON`T SEEM TO COME TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY TO
GO WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH GUIDANCE POPS, AND WE`VE MAINTAINED THE
THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN LIMITING OUR MENTION OF
CONVECTION TO VCTS AND CB FOR THE TWO NORTHERN SITES AND CB FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY SITES. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF IT
OUT OF THE TWO SOUTHERN SITES. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME TODAY AND
MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING TONIGHT WITH ONLY
PARTIAL DECOUPLING AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. ALL THIS SPELLS
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY, WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ONCE THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE LIFT AWAY, BUT SINCE WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD EASTERN
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT THE WEATHER
WILL TURN A BIT UNSETTLED. WE DO NOT, HOWEVER, FORECAST THAT AT THIS
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM LATER TODAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DITTO FOR
SEAS. WE DON`T ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM... /
SHORT TERM.../ O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030704
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
304 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS REMAINED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN. THE COMBINATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO
CROSS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS IN WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...ANTICIPATE SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH. LIFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW RUNNING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS WEEKEND...ANY RIPPLES ON THIS
WAVE TO THE NORTH...COLD PUSH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA
MORE IN LINE WITH PIT TO IND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAXES
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND A NORTHWEST ORIENTED 500H
PATTERN...EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF WET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING ANY ONE
FEATURE AT THIS POINT. SO...WILL KEEP CURRENT DRY TREND GOING FOR
THE PERIOD...WITH LATER FORECASTS REFINING TIMING ON PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THIS UPCOMING
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...CONTRIBUTING TO DEGRADED
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING IFR...FOCUSED NORTH AND EAST OF KPIT BY
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DISTURBANCE.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
TONIGHT...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR PORTS TO THE SOUTH OF PIT WHERE CROSSING
SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/MVFR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 030606
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR TORONTO ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL SET UP A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND... THOUGH A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM...BUT STILL REMAIN GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW...THEN DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES AND A NOTABLE N/S BELT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE INCREASED POPS IN THE NW REFLECT THIS...NOW NOT DIPPING TO
LOW CHC IN NW AFTER 6Z. MINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST
PART...AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FOG (1-2SM) LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY LIGHT WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY SHOULD HOLD SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORM OF LESS NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS THE MAIN SFC/UPR TROUGH DUO HEADS EAST OVER
NEW JERSEY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES UNIFORM FROM THE WNW. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY (THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOL
ADVECTION AT 850 MB...AND A FEW DEG C OF WARMING IN 700-500 MB
LAYER)...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT JET HEADED SE FROM THE
UPPER GLAKES COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SHRA/VERY ISOLATED TSRA. THE "CHC" POPS WILL BE 15-20 PERCENT
HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND 70S IN
THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS WILL BE ABOUT 2-3F LOWER THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS
BROAD TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
INVOF A BAROCLINIC/FNTL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD
THROUGH THE TN VLY. HOWEVER...STILL DO NOT TRUST THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SUSPECT THAT THE OUTER PERIODS WILL NOT REMAIN ENTIRELY
DRY. BUT -- CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD IS VERY LOW SO
WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.
DY8+ GEFS MEAN SHOWS BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE PLAINS WHICH
MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK /JULY 10TH/?
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING A A BAND OF RAIN
INTO NW PA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE RAIN...CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR/MVFR
BEFORE STRATOCU AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
BRINGING MVFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...THOUGH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY MVFR. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU TUE...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DICKEY
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
000
FXUS61 KCTP 030243
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1043 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR TORONTO ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL SET UP A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND... THOUGH A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM...BUT STILL REMAIN GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW...THEN DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES AND A NOTABLE N/S BELT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE INCREASED POPS IN THE NW REFLECT THIS...NOW NOT DIPPING TO
LOW CHC IN NW AFTER 6Z. MINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST
PART...AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT FOG (1-2SM) LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY LIGHT WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN
AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHOULD HOLD SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORM OF LESS NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS THE MAIN SFC/UPR TROUGH DUO HEADS EAST OVER
NEW JERSEY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES UNIFORM FROM THE WNW. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY (THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOL
ADVECTION AT 850 MB...AND A FEW DEG C OF WARMING IN 700-500 MB
LAYER)...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT JET HEADED SE FROM THE
UPPER GLAKES COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SHRA/VERY ISOLATED TSRA. THE "CHC" POPS WILL BE 15-20 PERCENT
HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND 70S IN
THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS WILL BE ABOUT 2-3F LOWER THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS
BROAD TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
INVOF A BAROCLINIC/FNTL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD
THROUGH THE TN VLY. HOWEVER...STILL DO NOT TRUST THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SUSPECT THAT THE OUTER PERIODS WILL NOT REMAIN ENTIRELY
DRY. BUT -- CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD IS VERY LOW SO
WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.
DY8+ GEFS MEAN SHOWS BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE PLAINS WHICH
MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK /JULY 10TH/?
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF SCATTERED HEAVY RA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VARIABLE FOR ALL
AIRFIELDS...DROPPING TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTRMS...WHILE MVFR TO
VFR OTHERWISE.
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 03Z EVEN AFTER SHOWERS DISSIPATE. AFTERWARD...PARTIAL
CLEARING AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
IFR FOG AT ALL AIRFIELDS. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS (LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DECK) IS EXPECTED IN THE 07Z-14Z FRIDAY PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS TEMPS WARM IN THE 10-20 KFT AGL
LAYER...BUT WILL STILL BE MAINLY MVFR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MON TUE...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DICKEY
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/DICKEY
000
FXUS61 KPHI 030145
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST,
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY, WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER OUR AREA
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AT 01Z LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM, SO SKY COVER GRIDS WERE MASSAGED A BIT UPWARD
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, AND WILL BE TERMED PARTLY CLOUDY,
OR, WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY, FORECAST TO DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT.
ONLY ONE OR TWO MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE GRID.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM, BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LESS
THAN TODAY. NO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK IS PRESENTLY INDICATED BY SPC
FOR THE DAY2 PERIOD.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH AROUND AND BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID
80S FRI AND SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THE GFS RUN
FROM 12Z TODAY SHOWS A VORT MAX GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUN. THE WRF-NAM DOES NOT HAVE THIS
FEATURE AND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY. POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME ARE EITHER
DRY (SUB-15 PCT) OR IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS SWEEP DOWN TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER LOWS
CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDER, SO GOING
ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE SLGT CHC TO CHC RANGE FOR NOW
WITH THE DETAILS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. I WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH
FEW...IF ANY...DAYS WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT TO TAF SITES WILL BE MINIMAL.
EVEN IF A SHOWER/TSTM DOES AFFECT A TAF SITE, IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT LIVED.
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, BUT THE ONLY
TAF AFFECTED WILL BE MIV.
FOR FRIDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH A WEST WIND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF KPHL.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS RE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM... / O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...RPW / IOVINO
MARINE...RPW / IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KCTP 022357
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
757 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR TORONTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL SET UP A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...
THOUGH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM...BUT STILL REMAIN GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH...AND A RATHER COMPACT BUT STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE
WAS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN PENN THIS MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
LOW-TOPPED TSRA WERE BECOMING WIDESPREAD WHILE MOVING INTO OUR
EXTREME WRN ZONES...AND THIS TREND/EXPANSION OF THE SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME BORDERLINE SEVERE (MAINLY WITH
1/2 - 3/4 INCH HAIL) ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND THEY
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MU CAPES OF 1300-1900 J/KG
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.
TEMPS LATE TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY...OR FALL BY SEVERAL DEG F
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS AS THE SHOWERS FALL INTO THE MID
50 SFC DEWPOINTS...WHILE TEMPS CLIMB JUST A FEW MORE DEG F ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY - THANKS TO RATHER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/BECOME ISOLATED TO SCT AFTER
02Z...WITH THE WANING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND A NOTABLE N/S
BELT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME
HIGH CHC POPS IN THE EVE...BUT DIP TO LOW CHC IN NW AND NIL IN THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST
PART...AND LIGHT FOG (1-2SM) MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WITH ONLY LIGHT
WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHOULD HOLD SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORM OF LESS NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS THE MAIN SFC/UPR TROUGH DUO HEADS EAST OVER
NEW JERSEY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES UNIFORM FROM THE WNW. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY (THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOL
ADVECTION AT 850 MB...AND A FEW DEG C OF WARMING IN 700-500 MB
LAYER)...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT JET HEADED SE FROM THE
UPPER GLAKES COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SHRA/VERY ISOLATED TSRA. THE "CHC" POPS WILL BE 15-20 PERCENT
HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND 70S IN
THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS WILL BE ABOUT 2-3F LOWER THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS
BROAD TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
INVOF A BAROCLINIC/FNTL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD
THROUGH THE TN VLY. HOWEVER...STILL DO NOT TRUST THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SUSPECT THAT THE OUTER PERIODS WILL NOT REMAIN ENTIRELY
DRY. BUT -- CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD IS VERY LOW SO
WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.
DY8+ GEFS MEAN SHOWS BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE PLAINS WHICH
MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK /JULY 10TH/?
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREAS OF SCATTERED HEAVY RA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VARIABLE FOR ALL
AIRFIELDS...DROPPING TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTRMS...WHILE MVFR TO
VFR OTHERWISE.
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 03Z EVEN AFTER SHOWERS DISSIPATE. AFTERWARD...PARTIAL
CLEARING AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
IFR FOG AT ALL AIRFIELDS. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS (LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DECK) IS EXPECTED IN THE 07Z-14Z FRIDAY PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS TEMPS WARM IN THE 10-20 KFT AGL
LAYER...BUT WILL STILL BE MAINLY MVFR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MON TUE...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/DICKEY
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022354 AAB
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE UPDATED TO BRING AN END TO CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER. ANOTHER UL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LAKES LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER RISK FOR SHOWERS. SHOWER THREAT WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING AS LAST WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE 5-10 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD EXIT THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE VIRGINIAS
THIS WEEKEND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND HPC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY. WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ONE OR TWO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BUT SINCE TOO HARD TO TIME AT THIS POINT...NONE WERE
INCLUDED.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO REGION IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED AROUND FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN CEILINGS PROGGED BY 07Z-09Z
TIME FRAME TO GO IFR. VISIBILITY STILL MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THINK
CEILINGS MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR IFR. CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AGAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z-15Z AND THEN VFR. WEST WINDS 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND PICKING
UP NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF REGION.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 022344
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY TO BE REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA MAY
BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DESPITE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE AT MOST
ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY.
LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE 5-10 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD EXIT THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE VIRGINIAS
THIS WEEKEND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND HPC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY. WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ONE OR TWO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BUT SINCE TOO HARD TO TIME AT THIS POINT...NONE WERE
INCLUDED.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO REGION IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED AROUND FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN CEILINGS PROGGED BY 07Z-09Z
TIME FRAME TO GO IFR. VISIBILITY STILL MVFR OVERNIGHT AND THINK
CEILINGS MORE PROBLEMATIC FOR IFR. CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AGAIN AFTER
ABOUT 14Z-15Z AND THEN VFR. WEST WINDS 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND PICKING
UP NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF REGION.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGHS BUILDS EAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 022000
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
400 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR TORONTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL SET UP A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...
THOUGH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM...BUT STILL REMAIN GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE TROUGH...AND A RATHER COMPACT BUT STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE
WAS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN PENN THIS MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
LOW-TOPPED TSRA WERE BECOMING WIDESPREAD WHILE MOVING INTO OUR
EXTREME WRN ZONES...AND THIS TREND/EXPANSION OF THE SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME BORDERLINE SEVERE (MAINLY WITH
1/2 - 3/4 INCH HAIL) ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND THEY
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MU CAPES OF 1300-1900 J/KG
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.
TEMPS LATE TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY...OR FALL BY SEVERAL DEG F
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS AS THE SHOWERS FALL INTO THE MID
50 SFC DEWPOINTS...WHILE TEMPS CLIMB JUST A FEW MORE DEG F ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY - THANKS TO RATHER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/BECOME ISOLATED TO SCT AFTER
02Z...WITH THE WANING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND A NOTABLE N/S
BELT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME
HIGH CHC POPS IN THE EVE...BUT DIP TO LOW CHC IN NW AND NIL IN THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST
PART...AND LIGHT FOG (1-2SM) MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WITH ONLY LIGHT
WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY SHOULD HOLD SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORM OF LESS NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS THE MAIN SFC/UPR TROUGH DUO HEADS EAST OVER
NEW JERSEY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES UNIFORM FROM THE WNW. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY (THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOL
ADVECTION AT 850 MB...AND A FEW DEG C OF WARMING IN 700-500 MB
LAYER)...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT JET HEADED SE FROM THE
UPPER GLAKES COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SHRA/VERY ISOLATED TSRA. THE "CHC" POPS WILL BE 15-20 PERCENT
HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND 70S IN
THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS WILL BE ABOUT 2-3F LOWER THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE COLD UPPER LOW WILL RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID FAVORS
BROAD TROUGHING/BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
INVOF A BAROCLINIC/FNTL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD
THROUGH THE TN VLY. HOWEVER...STILL DO NOT TRUST THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SUSPECT THAT THE OUTER PERIODS WILL NOT REMAIN ENTIRELY
DRY. BUT -- CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD IS VERY LOW SO
WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW.
DY8+ GEFS MEAN SHOWS BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE PLAINS WHICH
MAY BE A PRECURSOR TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK /JULY 10TH/?
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
SHORTWAVES SLIDING EAST THROUGH ITS BASE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...LEADING TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS (TODAY)...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS TEMPS WARM IN THE 10-20 KFT AGL
LAYER.
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 03Z. AFTERWARD...PARTIAL CLEARING AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR FOG AT
ALL AIRFIELDS. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS (LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK) IS
EXPECTED IN THE 07Z-14Z FRIDAY PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE MAINLY MVFR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MON...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 021922
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONCE AGAIN, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY IS
QUITE A BIT LESS TODAY THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND
DOWNPOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN NJ
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM, BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LESS
THAN TODAY. NO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK IS PRESENTLY INDICATED BY SPC
FOR THE DAY2 PERIOD.
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH AROUND AND BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE THAT HOT WITH LOW TO MID
80S FRI AND SAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AROUND THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK WILL
MOVE OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE NEXT LOW
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL BRING A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THE GFS RUN
FROM 12Z TODAY SHOWS A VORT MAX GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUN. THE WRF-NAM DOES NOT HAVE THIS
FEATURE AND KEEPS OUR AREA DRY. POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME ARE EITHER
DRY (SUB-15 PCT) OR IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON.
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW FROM CANADA BEGINS SWEEP DOWN TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST STATES. WE HAVE SEEN THIS WEEK HOW ONE OF THESE UPPER LOWS
CAN BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDER, SO GOING
ALONG WITH THIS, POPS WILL BE IN THE SLGT CHC TO CHC RANGE FOR NOW
WITH THE DETAILS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. I WOULD EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD WITH
FEW...IF ANY...DAYS WITH 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AT MID AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
AND THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOW TO DEVELOP.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, AND
MORE SCATTERED AROUND KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG. WE ARE EXPECTING
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND KMIV AND KACY.
UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SHOULD FOLLOW
A MORE TYPICAL TIMING PATTERN. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THEY WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK, BY ABOUT 0100Z.
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG. HOWEVER, WE
WILL ADDRESS THAT POTENTIAL IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES, IF NEED BE.
FOR FRIDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH A WEST WIND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 OR 12 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF KPHL.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS RE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021917
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
317 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY
MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY TO BE REPLACED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA MAY
BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DESPITE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE AT MOST
ISOLATED DUE TO LACK OF SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY.
LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGHS FRIDAY COULD BE 5-10 DEG F WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING HOW MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUDGING FROM BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL RUNS THE LAST OF THE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD EXIT THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND THE VIRGINIAS
THIS WEEKEND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 70.
THE REST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASED ON BLEND OF GEFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS AND HPC
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO BE MAINLY DRY. WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THIS
PERIOD...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE ONE OR TWO PERIODS
OF SHOWERS BUT SINCE TOO HARD TO TIME AT THIS POINT...NONE WERE
INCLUDED.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AS
INDICATED BY BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES. CONDITIONS WILL
OCCASIONALLY BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH SPOTTY IFR IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...THIS SCENARIO LOOKS
REASONABLE.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY VFR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY TO KZZV AND KMGW.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 021913
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
313 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR TORONTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL SET UP A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...
THOUGH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM...BUT STILL REMAIN GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH...AND A RATHER COMPACT BUT STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE
WAS PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN PENN THIS MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
LOW-TOPPED TSRA WERE BECOMING WIDESPREAD WHILE MOVING INTO OUR
EXTREME WRN ZONES...AND THIS TREND/EXPANSION OF THE SHRA/TSRA
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME BORDERLINE SEVERE (MAINLY WITH
1/2 - 3/4 INCH HAIL) ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY LATE TODAY AND THEY
ENTER A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MU CAPES OF 1300-1900 J/KG
BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.
TEMPS LATE TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY...OR FALL BY SEVERAL DEG F
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS AS THE SHOWERS FALL INTO THE MID
50 SFC DEWPOINTS...WHILE TEMPS CLIMB JUST A FEW MORE DEG F ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY - THANKS TO RATHER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/BECOME ISOLATED TO SCT AFTER
02Z...WITH THE WANING BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND A NOTABLE N/S
BELT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION MOVING OVERHEAD. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME
HIGH CHC POPS IN THE EVE...BUT DIP TO LOW CHC IN NW AND NIL IN THE
SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST
PART...AND LIGHT FOG (1-2SM) MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WITH ONLY LIGHT
WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY SHOULD HOLD SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FORM OF LESS NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AS THE MAIN SFC/UPR TROUGH DUO HEADS EAST OVER
NEW JERSEY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BECOMES UNIFORM FROM THE WNW. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY (THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOL
ADVECTION AT 850 MB...AND A FEW DEG C OF WARMING IN 700-500 MB
LAYER)...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT JET HEADED SE FROM THE
UPPER GLAKES COULD TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SHRA/VERY ISOLATED TSRA. THE "CHC" POPS WILL BE 15-20 PERCENT
HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND 70S IN
THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS WILL BE ABOUT 2-3F LOWER THAN THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM THE
PERSISTENT BROAD CYC FLOW -- TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND. ATTM...SAT /JULY 4TH/ LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN BTWN THE
DEPARTING/STACKED LOW OVER MAINE AND A DEVELOPING CYC OVR THE SRN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT IS
TYPICALLY PROBLEMATIC AS SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOC WEAK
SFC FNTS/TROUGHS TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE DRY FCST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE. HPC PROGS SHOW THE SRN PLAINS LOW SLIDING EWD THROUGH THE
TN VLY TWD THE VA TIDEWATER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
SHORTWAVES SLIDING EAST THROUGH ITS BASE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...LEADING TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS (TODAY)...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS TEMPS WARM IN THE 10-20 KFT AGL
LAYER.
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 03Z. AFTERWARD...PARTIAL CLEARING AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF IFR FOG AT
ALL AIRFIELDS. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS (LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK) IS
EXPECTED IN THE 07Z-14Z FRIDAY PERIOD. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE MAINLY MVFR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU MON...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
000
FXUS61 KCTP 021544
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1144 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE LIFTING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL SET UP A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM...BUT STILL REMAIN GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING SE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW (PARKED OVER LAKE HURON) WAS MOVING OVER
WRN LAKE ERIE/NRN OHIO...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG
THE PENN/OHIO BORDER.
THESE FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED/SCT LOW-TOPPED TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.
SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SVR TSRA IS SEVERAL COUNTIES NE OF THE
SUSQ VALLEY (OVER THE EASTERN POCONOS).
BUMPED UP BASIN AVG QPF TO ABOUT ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH THE NEAR NORMAL PRECIP WATER OF
AROUND 28MM (1-1.25 INCHES) WILL HELP TO SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED
0.75 TO 1.25 INCH TOTALS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY A FEW HEAVIER TSRA
OVER THE UPCOMING 8 HRS.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEG F COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY...OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS...LOWER AND MID 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND
AROUND 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY (WHERE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS).
THE SUNNIER SPOTS IN THE SE WILL HAVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AS
LI/S DIP TO -2 OR -3...BUT HANG CLOSER TO ZERO IN THE WEST. THIS
COULD HELP A FEW OF THE STORMS TO MAKE SM HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. THE
12Z NAM INIDCATES MU CAPES (NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF A KSEG TO KTHV
LINE) AS HIGH AS 1500-1900 J/KG DURING THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS LOOK TO END PRETTY EARLY IN THE EVENING AS HEATING GOES
AWAY AND NEG VORT ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD AT THE SAME TIME. WILL
HOLD SOME HIGH CHC POPS IN THE EVE...BUT DIP TO LOW CHC IN NW AND
NIL IN THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WITH ONLY LIGHT WEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY HOLDS SOME COLD ADV AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NW...AS MAIN LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE NE.
DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL POP MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRIER AIR PUSHING IN AND ADDING
LIFT. AGAIN...MAINLY THE NW WILL GET THE SHRA. DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
HELP THE SE HAVE LESS COVERAGE. INSTABILITY SHRA SHOULD AGAIN GO
AWAY ARND SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM THE
PERSISTENT BROAD CYC FLOW -- TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND. ATTM...SAT /JULY 4TH/ LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN BTWN THE
DEPARTING/STACKED LOW OVER MAINE AND A DEVELOPING CYC OVR THE SRN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT IS
TYPICALLY PROBLEMATIC AS SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOC WEAK
SFC FNTS/TROUGHS TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE DRY FCST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE. HPC PROGS SHOW THE SRN PLAINS LOW SLIDING EWD THROUGH THE
TN VLY TWD THE VA TIDEWATER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND IT ACROSS PA THROUGH
THEN.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING MAINLY DUE TO LOW CLOUD
DECK...ALTHOUGH 3-5SM VSBY ALSO COMMON. FOR MOST AREAS...CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR AS MORNING WEARS ON...THE EXCEPTION BEING KBFD. SCT
SHRA WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH SCT TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TEMPRARILY
REDUCE VSBY/CIGS AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
CIGS DROP AGAIN THU NIGHT AS STRATUS DECK RETURNS...SO EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD LIFR/MVFR CIGS BY 06Z-09Z. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE SLIDES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRI BRINGING MORE SHRA/TSRA...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR EARLY...THEN MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
SAT THRU MON...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 021542
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1140 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SLOWLY
TOWARD OUR REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BY LATE MORNING, THE LOW CLOUDS WERE BREAKING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX, LOCATED OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING, WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING OVER OUR REGION, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED ITS SLIGHT RISK AREA A BIT
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ENHANCED
WORDING FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN REGARD TO THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOWLY IMPROVING WEATHER PICTURE IS FORESEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY, AND IT SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AIR
FOR OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL CREATE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
RANGES OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LIFTING AWAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH POPS IN THE NONE OR SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
HPC PROGS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE NEEDED
FOR THIS NOW. THE 00Z THURSDAY GFS DOES SHOW A SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW BY TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE LEFT FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO ENDORSE OR OVERRULE USING A MORE CONSISTENT PICTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY, WITH LOWER AND MID 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
WE EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY TO OUR
NORTH AND WINDS DEVELOP A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE THAT IS BROUGHT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION AND MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
WE HAVE ENDED THAT ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS BY 00Z FRI, AND THEN
GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST VFR FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. OF COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE WINDS AND WAVES TO
INCREASE LOCALLY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM... / O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KCTP 021142
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
742 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SET UP A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
SHOWERS WEAKENING AND MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTS AWAY. SHOWERS IN THE EAST COULD REDEVELOPING ON
THE WESTERN EDGE. THERE ARE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION WITH
LOW STRATUS AS WELL...DUE TO SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE SHOWERS. THE
WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AND THE FOG COULD GET THICKER.
ANOTHER WAVE OVER WRN LAKE ERIE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE MORNING. IT
IS ALREADY BRINGING IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SW.
THESE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND A BIT AND THE AREA OF SHOWERS FROM KCLE
TO KCMH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP
DROP THE STABILITY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS MOVING IN FM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MORE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NW...BUT THE
SUNNIER SPOTS IN THE SE WILL HAVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AS LI/S
DIP TO -2 OR -3...BUT HANG CLOSER TO ZERO IN THE WEST. THIS COULD
HELP A FEW OF THE STORMS TO MAKE SM HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN WED...WITH 8H TEMPS ABOUT 2C
LOWER.
SHOWERS LOOK TO END PRETTY EARLY IN THE EVENING AS HEATING GOES
AWAY AND NEG VORT ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD AT THE SAME TIME. WILL
HOLD SOME HIGH CHC POPS IN THE EVE...BUT DIP TO LOW CHC IN NW AND
NIL IN THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WITH ONLY LIGHT WEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY HOLDS SOME COLD ADV AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NW...AS MAIN LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE NE.
DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL POP MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRIER AIR PUSHING IN AND ADDING
LIFT. AGAIN...MAINLY THE NW WILL GET THE SHRA. DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
HELP THE SE HAVE LESS COVERAGE. INSTABILITY SHRA SHOULD AGAIN GO
AWAY ARND SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM THE
PERSISTENT BROAD CYC FLOW -- TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND. ATTM...SAT /JULY 4TH/ LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN BTWN THE
DEPARTING/STACKED LOW OVER MAINE AND A DEVELOPING CYC OVR THE SRN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT IS
TYPICALLY PROBLEMATIC AS SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOC WEAK
SFC FNTS/TROUGHS TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE DRY FCST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE. HPC PROGS SHOW THE SRN PLAINS LOW SLIDING EWD THROUGH THE
TN VLY TWD THE VA TIDEWATER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND IT ACROSS PA THROUGH
THEN.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING MAINLY DUE TO LOW CLOUD
DECK...ALTHOUGH 3-5SM VSBY ALSO COMMON. FOR MOST AREAS...CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR AS MORNING WEARS ON...THE EXCEPTION BEING KBFD. SCT
SHRA WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH SCT TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL TEMPRARILY
REDUCE VSBY/CIGS AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
CIGS DROP AGAIN THU NIGHT AS STRATUS DECK RETURNS...SO EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD LIFR/MVFR CIGS BY 06Z-09Z. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE SLIDES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRI BRINGING MORE SHRA/TSRA...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR EARLY...THEN MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.
SAT THRU MON...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 020800
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SLOWLY
TOWARD OUR REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED
LOW THAT SET OFF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS MOVING PAST OUR
AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND THE REMAINING CONVECTION WAS MAINLY
OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
REMNANTS JUST IN THE WAKE OF THAT ACTIVITY OVER OUR CENTRAL
ZONES...AND PROBABLY NOTHING OVER THE FAR SOUTH. SO, PROBABILITIES
WILL BE SHADED FROM LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THIS AFTERNOON.THE GFS MOS IS PREFERRED, WHICH HAS CHANCE
PROBABILITIES, INDICATING MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS THERE IS NOT
AS MUCH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPARED WITH LAST NIGHT, AND THE WIND FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS
THAT SOME LEFTOVER BOUNDARY MIGHT INTERACT WITH A SEA-BREEZE
FRONT TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVER, OR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY, WERE
MENTIONED AT MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH, WHERE GFS AND NAM
MOS, AS WELL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS, WERE FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC REGARDING
CLOUD COVER.
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL IN SOME AREAS, AND THE HIGH DEW
POINTS, ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE COULD CAUSE SOME
RADIATION, SO PATCHY FOG WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS AN EXAMPLE, BOTH KPNE AND KMIV HAD FALLEN TO 1
3/4 MILES IN MIST JUST BEFORE 08Z WHERE THE SKY HAD TEMPORARILY
CLEARED. SO, WHILE THAT`S NOT TERRIBLY FOGGY, SOME SPOTS WERE
STARTING TO UNDERGO A DROP IN THEIR VISIBILITIES A BIT.
SPC KEPT OUR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COUNTIES IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, SO ENHANCED WORDING WAS ADDED
TO THESE AREAS, MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE A CONCERN VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING NORTH, AND WILL BE WATCHED.
ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR NOTHING OVERNIGHT, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ENTER THE
REGION ON A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT.
MOS TEMPERATURES OFFERED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIFFERENCE, SO
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON THIS MORNING`S GIVEN SOLUTIONS ON
TODAY`S HIGHS AND TONIGHT`S LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOWLY IMPROVING WEATHER PICTURE IS FORESEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD IN SLOWLY, AND IT SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER
AIR FOR OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL CREATE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
RANGES OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LIFTING AWAY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD
WITH POPS IN THE NONE OR SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
HPC PROGS INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE NEEDED
FOR THIS NOW. THE 00Z THURSDAY GFS DOES SHOW A SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW BY TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE LEFT FOR THE
DAY SHIFT TO ENDORSE OR OVERRULE USING A MORE CONSISTENT PICTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY, WITH LOWER AND MID 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. INITIALLY, WE ARE DEALING WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW AND A SURFACE REFLECTION THAT HAVE CAUSED A COMBINATION OF AN
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME FOG ALMOST COINCIDENT WITH
MODERATE CONVECTION. THAT ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY DAYBREAK,
AND WE THEN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES AWAY AND WINDS DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE THAT IS BROUGHT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION AND MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE NOT PUT THAT MUCH SPECIFICITY
IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT, BUT WE ARE CARRYING VCTS FOR OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE ENDED THAT ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS BY 00Z FRI, AND THEN
GENERALLY HAVE FORECAST VFR FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OVER
OUR REGION THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WITH NO STRONG WEATHER SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. OF COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE WINDS AND WAVES TO
INCREASE LOCALLY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS... / O`HARA
NEAR TERM... / O`HARA
SHORT TERM... / O`HARA
LONG TERM...O`HARA /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KCTP 020743
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SET UP A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
SHOWERS WEAKENING AND MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE LIFTS AWAY. SHOWERS IN THE EAST COULD REDEVELOPING ON
THE WESTERN EDGE. THERE ARE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE REGION WITH
LOW STRATUS AS WELL...DUE TO SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE SHOWERS. THE
WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AND THE FOG COULD GET THICKER.
ANOTHER WAVE OVER WRN LAKE ERIE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE MORNING. IT
IS ALREADY BRINGING IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SW.
THESE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND A BIT AND THE AREA OF SHOWERS FROM KCLE
TO KCMH WILL ALSO MOVE IN. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP
DROP THE STABILITY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS MOVING IN FM THE WEST WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MORE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NW...BUT THE
SUNNIER SPOTS IN THE SE WILL HAVE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AS LI/S
DIP TO -2 OR -3...BUT HANG CLOSER TO ZERO IN THE WEST. THIS COULD
HELP A FEW OF THE STORMS TO MAKE SM HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN WED...WITH 8H TEMPS ABOUT 2C
LOWER.
SHOWERS LOOK TO END PRETTY EARLY IN THE EVENING AS HEATING GOES
AWAY AND NEG VORT ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD AT THE SAME TIME. WILL
HOLD SOME HIGH CHC POPS IN THE EVE...BUT DIP TO LOW CHC IN NW AND
NIL IN THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S FOR
THE MOST PART...AND FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP WITH ONLY LIGHT WEST
WINDS.
FRIDAY HOLDS SOME COLD ADV AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NW...AS MAIN LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE NE.
DAYTIME HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL POP MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRIER AIR PUSHING IN AND ADDING
LIFT. AGAIN...MAINLY THE NW WILL GET THE SHRA. DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
HELP THE SE HAVE LESS COVERAGE. INSTABILITY SHRA SHOULD AGAIN GO
AWAY ARND SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM THE
PERSISTENT BROAD CYC FLOW -- TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND. ATTM...SAT /JULY 4TH/ LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES NOSES IN BTWN THE
DEPARTING/STACKED LOW OVER MAINE AND A DEVELOPING CYC OVR THE SRN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT IS
TYPICALLY PROBLEMATIC AS SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND ASSOC WEAK
SFC FNTS/TROUGHS TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS. THEREFORE
DESPITE THE DRY FCST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE. HPC PROGS SHOW THE SRN PLAINS LOW SLIDING EWD THROUGH THE
TN VLY TWD THE VA TIDEWATER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL TEMPORARILY CAUSE MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WITHIN
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS SRN PA WILL MOVE FROM N ACROSS CENTRAL PA /UNV/ BY 01Z AND
NRN PA /BFD AND IPT/ BY 03X...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SUB VFR
CONDS. ONCE THIS AREA MOVES OUT OF PA/DISSIPATES...IT WILL BE
AREAS OF FOG THAT KEEP VSBYS IN MVFR RANGE AT MANY SITES OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW LOOKS VERY SIMILAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN
TODAY...WITH MVFR EARLY ON WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS...THEN IMPROVING
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW AS WELL...CAUSING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR EARLY.
SAT THRU MON...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR
000
FXUS61 KCTP 020655
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SEVERAL DAY STRING OF DRY...PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT...OR
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMALS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MCS FORMED OVER WV/VA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IS TRACKING
NORTHWARD THRU THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. STORMS ARE PRETTY SQUAT
WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS THEY MARCH
NORTH. OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB ON THE QPF
PLACEMENT WHICH SUGGESTS ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DOCTORED UP THE GRIDS FOR THE TIMING...BUT THE BIG PICTURE REMAINS
UNCHANGED AS THE STUBBORN ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION.
SEVERAL SREF PLUMES SHOW ANYWHERE FROM 2-5 TENTHS OF QPF
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF OVER 0.75".
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME STEADY RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NE ZONES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
SHORT WAVE LIFTS NE AND SPINS UP A SFC LOW ACROSS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL/ALBEIT WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALOFT WILL PASS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION EVERY SEVERAL HOURS INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SITS
AND SPINS OVER LK HURON AND SRN ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY
FILL/DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES.
DAILY SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT/WIDESPREAD AS EACH NEW
DAY COMES.
12 HOUR QPF THURSDAY SHOULD AVERAGE 0.25-0.35".
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE A A FEW DEG F COOLER DUE TO MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DEG C OF COOLING ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NW MTNS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUID SUGGESTS A TRANSITION FROM THE
PERSISTENT BROAD CYC FLOW -- TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BY THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
DY4 /SUN/. COLDER THAN NORMAL 700MB TEMPS AND 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
STILL SUPPORT SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. ATTM...SAT /JULY 4TH/ LOOKS DRY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INBTWN THE DEPARTING/STACKED LOW OVER MAINE AND A DEVELOPING
CYC OVR THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IN THE FAST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY PROBLEMATIC AS SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES AND
ASSOC WEAK SFC FNTS/TROUGHS TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE GRT LKS.
THEREFORE DESPITE THE DRY FCST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE. HPC PROGS SHOW THE SRN PLAINS LOW SLIDING
EWD THROUGH THE TN VLY TWD THE VA TIDEWATER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY THU. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT KEEPING
CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR/LIFR RANGE...WHICH WILL RETURN TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS/TSTORMS TEMPORARILY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR EARLY.
SAT THRU MON...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LACORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LACORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020643
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
243 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORM GENERATION IS AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS COLD
AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH DIURNAL AFFECTS DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW...WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL WAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE PASSING WAVES...SPOTTY
PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH MAXES RECOVERING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE BY SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL BUILD IN TOWARD WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE UPPER OHIO FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. FOR THIS MORNING, DEGRADED
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED AT MOST PORTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS POOLED IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS OHIO. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER OHIO AS
NEXT IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES
LOW. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER
OHIO REGION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES UNDER COOL MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE VFR
THRESHOLDS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING LOW EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER, TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED WITH VFR WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
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