000
FXUS61 KBOX 052029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WX TONIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE 12Z GFS MOS BLENDED
WITH WITH 4AM KBOX FCST. A NICE EVENING AFTER WHAT PROBABLY WAS FOR MOST...
QUITE A FINE FINE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FCST DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF 12Z GFS MAVMOS AND THE RGEM 2M DEWS WHICH
HAVE BEEN A USEFUL A CHECK IN THE SHORT TERM AGAINST THE GFS AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN IN THE LONG TERM...BOTH ARE GOOD! I JUST DONT HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN THE VALUE OF THE NAM SFC DEWPOINTS WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS MOS AND RGEM/ECMWF.

FCST SFC AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND
NAM MOS AND MASS FIELD GUIDANCE RESPECTIVELY.

FCST SKY IS A 40 30 30 BLEND OF GFS MOS...RGEM AND NAM RH ALGORITHM.

FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFSMOS AND THE 4AM KBOX FCST CK`D
AGAINST THE RGEM AND NAM 2M TEMPS.

IN ESSENCE...DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT GOING ON YET...WHICH MEANS CONTD
NICE WX. WE HAVE A FRONT TRYING TO FORM IN THE INTERIOR OF SNE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM ESE MOVEMENT OF THE S CENTRAL CANADA CLOSED
LOW BUT I DONT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MUCH CONVECTION.
THIS LOW PROB THUNDER RISK WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE HWO SINCE WE CAN
SEE IT DROPPING OUT OF THE FCST IN FUTURE ISSUANCE`S...TREATED SIMILAR
TO OUR DAY 2 MDT RISK ISSUANCE`S FOR RIP CURRENTS THAT IS LOW PROB.

HOWEVER...THIS FCST CONTD CONTINUITY OF THE PREV FCSTS...PRIMARILY
BECAUSE OF THE 09Z AND 15Z SREF POPS AND OFFERS A LOW PROB OF A
SHOWER OR TSTM CENTERED ON MON EVE DISTANT NW INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. CLOSED LOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS...HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME I COULD SEE THE NEED FOR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT SURE HOW UNSTABLE WE/LL BE ABLE TO GET TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY MUSTER UP ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS. SAME GOES FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THOSE TWO DAYS...DIDN/T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE
MAVMOS GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN STILL...THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM UP BEFORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/SHOWERS DEVELOP IS THERE.

THURSDAY IS A BIT INTERESTING...MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY.
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST COAST OF MASS. WHAT ELSE IS NEW?

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR OKAY AT THIS TIME...PROBABLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT. HOWEVER...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STRATUS ON THE RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE SFC HIPRES. MAY NEED A
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. MAY
NEED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS EVENING...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING 23-29KTS S COAST THRU ABOUT
23Z TDY.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR AN HR OR 2 EARLY MONDAY WITH
PATCHY IFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ISO TSTMS NW MA AND
SW NH DURING THE EVENING AND FOG PATCHES MAY DEVELOP SPOTTY IFR
CONDS LATE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE THROUGH WED...VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY BECOME MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AS SHOWERS AND ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DEVELOP. LOCALLY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...VFR...BUT HAVE TO WATCH EASTERLY WIND AND ANY LOWER CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE EAST COAST OF MASS.

FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...SCA CONTD S COAST GUSTY SW WINDS 24-29 KTS OTRW THE SCA
WINDS MID MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY ON E COASTAL MA HAVE SETTLED.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND SEAS BLO 5 FT.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 428
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 052019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FAIR WX TONIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER CLOUDS. TEMPS ARE 12Z GFS MOS BLENDED
WITH WITH 4AM KBOX FCST. A NICE EVENING AFTER WHAT PROBABLY WAS FOR MOST...
QUITE A FINE FINE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FCST DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF 12Z GFS MAVMOS AND THE RGEM 2M DEWS WHICH
HAVE BEEN AS USEFUL A CHECK IN THE SHORT TERM AGAINST THE GFS AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN IN THE LONG TERM...BOTH ARE GOOD! I JUST DONT HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN THE VALUE OF THE NAM SFC DEWPOINTS WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS MOS AND RGEM/ECMWF.

FCST SFC AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND
NAM MOS AND MASS FIELD GUIDANCE RESPECTIVELY.

FCST SKY IS A 40 30 30 BLEND OF GFS MOS...RGEM AND NAM RAW RH ALG.

FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFSMOS AND THE 4AM KBOX FCST CK`D
AGAINST THE RGEM AND NAM 2M TEMPS.

IN ESSENCE...DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT GOING ON YET...WHICH MEANS CONTD
NICE WX. WE HAVE A FRONT TRYING TO FORM IN THE INTERIOR OF SNE IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM ESE MOVEMENT OF THE S CENTRAL CANADA CLOSED
LOW BUT I DONT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MUCH CONVECTION.

HOWEVER...THIS FCST CONTD CONTINUITY OF THE PREV FCSTS...PRIMARILY
BECAUSE OF THE 09Z AND 15Z SREF POPS AND OFFERS A LOW PROB OF A
SHOWER OR TSTM CENTERED ON MON EVE DISTANT NW INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. CLOSED LOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS...HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME I COULD SEE THE NEED FOR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT SURE HOW UNSTABLE WE/LL BE ABLE TO GET TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY MUSTER UP ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS. SAME GOES FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THOSE TWO DAYS...DIDN/T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE
MAVMOS GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN STILL...THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM UP BEFORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/SHOWERS DEVELOP IS THERE.

THURSDAY IS A BIT INTERESTING...MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY.
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST COAST OF MASS. WHAT ELSE IS NEW?

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR OKAY AT THIS TIME...PROBABLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT. HOWEVER...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STRATUS ON THE RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE SFC HIPRES. MAY NEED A
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. MAY
NEED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS EVENING...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING 23-29KTS S COAST THRU ABOUT
23Z TDY.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR AN HR OR 2 EARLY MONDAY WITH
PATCHY IFR.

MONDAY...VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ISO TSTMS NW MA AND
SW NH DURING THE EVENING AND FOG PATCHES MAY DEVELOP SPOTTY IFR
CONDS LATE AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE THROUGH WED...VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY BECOME MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AS SHOWERS AND ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DEVELOP. LOCALLY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...VFR...BUT HAVE TO WATCH EASTERLY WIND AND ANY LOWER CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE EAST COAST OF MASS.

FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTN...SCA CONTD S COAST GUSTY SW WINDS 24-29 KTS OTRW THE SCA
WINDS MID MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY ON E COASTAL MA HAVE SETTLED.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND SEAS BLO 5 FT.
NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>235-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EKSTER 418
NEAR TERM...DRAG 418
SHORT TERM...DRAG 418
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER 418
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER 418

000
FXUS61 KBOX 051925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY
AND MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK. A
RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY COME
INTO PLAY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1120 AM UPDATE: LOWERS DEWPOINTS A BIT AND INCREASED GUSTS 3-4 MORE
KNOTS. SPRING ENVIRONMENT WHERE DEEP BL MIXING DRIES OUT DEWPOINTS
MORE THAN EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AND ALSO YIELDS HIGHER GUSTS THAN
MODELED.

MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS VALUES
FOR THESE GRIDS. MWN WB AT 11 AM HAS RISEN TO 41F AND EXPECT LATE
AFTN MAX TEMP OF 81-83F. OKX 12Z SOUNDING HAS IT...OTHERS ARE A BIT
COOLER BUT SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING SO AM FCSTG THE HIGHER VALUE...WHICH
IS ABOUT 1F PRIOR THAN THE 4AM KBOX FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FCST DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF 12Z GFS MAVMOS AND THE RGEM 2M DEWS
WHICH HAVE BEEN AS USEFUL A CHECK IN THE SHORT TERM AGAINST THE GFS
AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN IN THE LONG TERM...BOTH ARE GOOD! I JUST DONT
HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE VALUE OF THE NAM SFC DEWPOINTS WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS MOS AND RGEM/ECMWF.

FCST SFC AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND
NAM MOS AND MASS FIELD GUIDANCE RESPECTIVELY.

OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.


MONDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. CLOSED LOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND ATTENDANT SFC BOUNDARY
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS...HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME I COULD SEE THE NEED FOR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT SURE HOW UNSTABLE WE/LL BE ABLE TO GET TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY MUSTER UP ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG/POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS. SAME GOES FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS LESS.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THOSE TWO DAYS...DIDN/T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS THE
MAVMOS GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN STILL...THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM UP BEFORE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/SHOWERS DEVELOP IS THERE.

THURSDAY IS A BIT INTERESTING...MAY BE COMPLETELY DRY.
HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST COAST OF MASS. WHAT ELSE IS NEW?

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR OKAY AT THIS TIME...PROBABLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT. HOWEVER...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
STRATUS ON THE RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE SFC HIPRES. MAY NEED A
CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. MAY
NEED TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING 23-29KTS TODAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY IFR.


MONDAY NIGHT... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG PATCHES AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUE THROUGH WED...VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY BECOME MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AS SHOWERS AND ISOLD/SCT TSTMS DEVELOP. LOCALLY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...VFR...BUT HAVE TO WATCH EASTERLY WIND AND ANY LOWER CLOUD
POTENTIAL AT THE EAST COAST OF MASS.

FRIDAY...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTN...SCA ISSUED FOR GUSTY W WINDS 24-29 KTS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS. NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>236-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 051704
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY BRINGING DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1120 AM UPDATE: LOWERS DEWPOINTS A BIT AND INCREASED GUSTS 3-4 MORE
KNOTS. SPRING ENVIRONMENT WHERE DEEP BL MIXING DRIES OUT DEWPOINTS
MORE THAN EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AND ALSO YIELDS HIGHER GUSTS THAN
MODELED.

MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS VALUES
FOR THESE GRIDS. MWN WB AT 11 AM HAS RISEN TO 41F AND EXPECT LATE
AFTN MAX TEMP OF 81-83F. OKX 12Z SOUNDING HAS IT...OTHERS ARE A BIT
COOLER BUT SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING SO AM FCSTG THE HIGHER VALUE...WHICH
IS ABOUT 1F PRIOR THAN THE 4AM KBOX FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FCST DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF 12Z GFS MAVMOS AND THE RGEM 2M DEWS
WHICH HAVE BEEN AS USEFUL A CHECK IN THE SHORT TERM AGAINST THE GFS
AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN IN THE LONG TERM...BOTH ARE GOOD! I JUST DONT
HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE VALUE OF THE NAM SFC DEWPOINTS WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS MOS AND RGEM/ECMWF.

FCST SFC AND TRANSPORT WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND
NAM MOS AND MASS FIELD GUIDANCE RESPECTIVELY.

OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.


MONDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES KEEPING A PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS. OVERALL NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FRAME.

THE DAILIES...


TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DROP H5 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -18 CELSIUS WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS ADVERTISING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COMBINED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER ITS STILL A BIT
EARLY TO QUANTIFY ANY SEVERE RISK.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD POOL LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE MENTION
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN DIURNAL LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREFERRED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF
AND GGEM SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND 18Z HPC GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDS
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOMPLISH THIS. GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE 00Z
GFS. OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADVERTISED LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING 23-29KTS TODAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY IFR.


MONDAY NIGHT... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG PATCHES AT
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...


TUESDAY...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG PATCHES AT
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY. VFR. SPOTTY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTN...SCA ISSUED FOR GUSTY W WINDS 24-29 KTS.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS. NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHIFTING WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>236-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG 104P
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...DRAG/STRAUSS 104P
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 104P

000
FXUS61 KBOX 051521
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY BRINGING DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1120 AM UPDATE: LOWERS DEWPOINTS A BIT AND INCREASED GUSTS 3-4 MORE
KNOTS. SPRING ENVIRONMENT WHERE DEEP BL MIXING DRIES OUT DEWPOINTS
MORE THAN EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AND ALSO YIELDS HIGHER GUSTS THAN
MODELED.

MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS VALUES
FOR THESE GRIDS. MWN WB AT 11 AM HAS RISEN TO 41F AND EXPECT LATE
AFTN MAX TEMP OF 81-83F. OKX 12Z SOUNDING HAS IT...OTHERS ARE A BIT
COOLER BUT SUBSIDENCE OCCURING SO AM FCSTG THE HIGHER VALUE...WHICH
IS ABOUT 1F PRIOR THAN THE 4AM KBOX FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES KEEPING A PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS. OVERALL NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FRAME.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DROP H5 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -18 CELSIUS WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS ADVERTISING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COMBINED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER ITS STILL A BIT
EARLY TO QUANTIFY ANY SEVERE RISK.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD POOL LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE MENTION
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN DIURNAL LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREFERRED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF
AND GGEM SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND 18Z HPC GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDS
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOMPLISH THIS. GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE 00Z
GFS. OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADVERTISED LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING 23-29KTS TODAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY IFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG
PATCHES AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY. VFR. SPOTTY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTN...SCA ISSUED FOR GUSTY W WINDS 24-29 KTS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS. NO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHIFTING WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>236-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS 1115A
NEAR TERM...WTB/DRAG 1115A
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 1115A
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 1115A

000
FXUS61 KBOX 051246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
846 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND MOVES OVER
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
840 AM PRODUCT PUBLIC/MARINE/FWX UPDATE BASICALLY CENTERS ON HIGHER
GUSTS BY 5 KNOTS AT BOS AND ORH TODAY. ALREADY 20-22KTS AT BOS ORH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO VIRGINIA.
THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY SUPPORTED BY WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. FULL SUN SHOULD MIX 10-12C AIR AT 850 MB...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES FOR THESE GRIDS.

WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 30 KNOTS AT ALY LAST NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST
20-25 KNOTS THIS MORNING PER THE ECMWF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...INDEED THE ECMWF FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING SHOWS 15
KNOTS ALOFT. WITH FULL MIXING WE WILL EXPECT GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS...ROUGHLY 20 MPH...BUT WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES KEEPING A PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS. OVERALL NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FRAME.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DROP H5 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -18 CELSIUS WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS ADVERTISING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COMBINED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER ITS STILL A BIT
EARLY TO QUANTIFY ANY SEVERE RISK.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD POOL LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE MENTION
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN DIURNAL LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREFERRED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF
AND GGEM SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND 18Z HPC GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDS
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOMPLISH THIS. GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE 00Z
GFS. OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADVERTISED LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY IFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG
PATCHES AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY. VFR. SPOTTY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS OVER LAND DURING THE DAY...AND SOME
OF THIS MAY WORK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS.  NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHIFTING WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...WTB/DRAG 845A
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 050816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND MOVES OVER
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO VIRGINIA.
THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY SUPPORTED BY WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. FULL SUN SHOULD MIX 10-12C AIR AT 850 MB...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES FOR THESE GRIDS.

WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 30 KNOTS AT ALY LAST NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST
20-25 KNOTS THIS MORNING PER THE ECMWF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...INDEED THE ECMWF FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING SHOWS 15
KNOTS ALOFT. WITH FULL MIXING WE WILL EXPECT GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS...ROUGHLY 20 MPH...BUT WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES KEEPING A PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS. OVERALL NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FRAME.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DROP H5 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -18 CELSIUS WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS ADVERTISING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COMBINED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER ITS STILL A BIT
EARLY TO QUANTIFY ANY SEVERE RISK.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD POOL LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE MENTION
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN DIURNAL LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREFERRED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF
AND GGEM SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND 18Z HPC GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDS
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOMPLISH THIS. GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE 00Z
GFS. OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADVERTISED LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY IFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG
PATCHES AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY. VFR. SPOTTY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS OVER LAND DURING THE DAY...AND SOME
OF THIS MAY WORK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS.  NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHIFTING WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 050745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND MOVES OVER
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO VIRGINIA.
THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY SUPPORTED BY WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. FULL SUN SHOULD MIX 10-12C AIR AT 850 MB...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES FOR THESE GRIDS.

WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 30 KNOTS AT ALY LAST NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST
20-25 KNOTS THIS MORNING PER THE ECMWF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...INDEED THE ECMWF FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING SHOWS 15
KNOTS ALOFT. WITH FULL MIXING WE WILL EXPECT GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS...ROUGHLY 20 MPH...BUT WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY IFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS OVER LAND DURING THE DAY...AND SOME
OF THIS MAY WORK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS.  NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 050206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDAKS. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MASS FOR THE HOURS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHED THEM OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
LOOK ON TARGET...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE DRIER THAN FORECAST AND SO
FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER/DRIER.

CLOUD SHIELD FROM MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM ARE PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE UPSTREAM OF US ARE MAINLY
CIRRUS...THE THICKER OF WHICH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5
RIDGING! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST TEMPS AND CK`D AGAINST
THE RGEM/NAM 2M TEMP FCST. SKY WAS GFS MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE RGEM
SKY CVR ALG 15Z-21Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH HEATING. A VERY VERY NICE
DAY...EVEN NICER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOWER RH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
GUSTS. NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG USED.

SUN NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND PASSES FAR ENOUGH
S TO MISS OUR CWA. SREF POPS USED. GFS 12Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS BLENDED
WITH THE 4AM KBOX OFFICIAL FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15Z-21Z SUNDAY 20-25 KTS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FEET ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW OCNL 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...W-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT NEAR SHORE WHICH MAY PROMPT ANOTHER
SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE NR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER/WTB

000
FXUS61 KBOX 042327
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

AT 4PM FCST PRODUCTS ARE POSTED FOR A DRY 4TH OF JULY EVENING PER ALL
GUIDANCE AND THE FCST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN THE 12Z MOS TO THAT OF OUR
4AM KBOX FCST. GUSTY WNW WINDS TO NR 30 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET.

FOR THE RECORD: MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST FOR SVRL DAYS REGARDING
THIS AFTNS AND WHAT RESULTED... A LACK OF CONVECTION IN SNE THIS
AFTN. THE UKMET WAS THE BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5
RIDGING! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST TEMPS AND CK`D AGAINST
THE RGEM/NAM 2M TEMP FCST. SKY WAS GFS MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE RGEM
SKY CVR ALG 15Z-21Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH HEATING. A VERY VERY NICE
DAY...EVEN NICER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOWER RH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
GUSTS. NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG USED.

SUN NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND PASSES FAR ENOUGH
S TO MISS OUR CWA. SREF POPS USED. GFS 12Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS BLENDED
WITH THE 4AM KBOX OFFICIAL FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REMAINDER TODAY...VFR. SCT W SFC WINDS G25-30 KT THRU ABOUT 00Z.

TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15Z-21Z SUNDAY 20-25 KTS.


OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING. CANCELLED THE SCA ADVISORY
THAT WAS IN EFFECT...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLD WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
NEARSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE TREND IS DOWN. SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FEET ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW OCNL 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...W-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT NEAR SHORE WHICH MAY PROMPT ANOTHER
SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE NR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 042056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NW FLOW GUST FRONT WELL DEFINED ON TBOS LONG RANGE R IMAGERY...VSBL
SAT IMAGERY IS STALLING AND WASHING OUT ON CAPE ANN AND NO NEW MWS
EXPECTED. HAD A NW WIND GUST 36 KTS REPORTED AT NEWBURYPORT ARD 317
PM. NO MEASURABLE PCPN ASSTD THO PROB BORN OUT OF MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS IN S NH THAT PASSED THRU MHT ABOUT ABOUT AN HR AGO. LAST
CELL E OF MHT AT 2045Z MAY GENERATE A SMALL-VERY SHORT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR NBT SOON?

NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING.

AT 4PM FCST PRODUCTS ARE POSTED FOR A DRY 4TH OF JULY EVENING PER ALL
GUIDANCE AND THE FCST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN THE 12Z MOS TO THAT OF OUR
4AM KBOX FCST. GUSTY WNW WINDS TO NR 30 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET.

FOR THE RECORD: MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST FOR SVRL DAYS REGARDING
THIS AFTNS AND WHAT RESULTED... A LACK OF CONVECTION IN SNE THIS
AFTN. THE UKMET WAS THE BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5
RIDGING! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST TEMPS AND CK`D AGAINST
THE RGEM/NAM 2M TEMP FCST. SKY WAS GFS MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE RGEM
SKY CVR ALG 15Z-21Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH HEATING. A VERY VERY NICE
DAY...EVEN NICER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOWER RH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
GUSTS. NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG USED.

SUN NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND PASSES FAR ENOUGH
S TO MISS OUR CWA. SREF POPS USED. GFS 12Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS BLENDED
WITH THE 4AM KBOX OFFICIAL FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REMAINDER TODAY...VFR. SCT W SFC WINDS G25-30 KT THRU ABOUT 00Z.

TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15Z-21Z SUNDAY 20-25 KTS.


OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES POSTED AS PER MWW FOR NR SHORE LATE AFTN WIND GUSTS
AND SRN OUTER WATERS PROJECTION OF 5 FT SEA TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF THE
SCA WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...W-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT NEAR SHORE WHICH MAY PROMPT ANOTHER
SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE NR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG 451
SHORT TERM...DRAG 451
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER 451
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER 451

000
FXUS61 KBOX 042025
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NW FLOW GUST FRONT VSBL ON TBOS IMAGERY CROSSING CAPE ANN AT 1955Z.
MWS POSTED. HAD A NW WIND GUST 36 KTS REPORTED AT NEWBURYPORT ARD 317
PM. NO MEASURABLE PCPN ASSTD THO PROB BORN OUT OF MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS IN S NH THAT PASSED THRU MHT ABOUT ABOUT AN HR AGO.

OTRW WATCHING ONE LAST CELL HEADING ESE TO THE N OF MHT AT 1955Z AND
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING.

AT 4PM FCST PRODUCTS ARE POSTED FOR A DRY 4TH OF JULY EVENING PER ALL
GUIDANCE AND THE FCST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN THE 12Z MOS TO THAT OF OUR
4AM KBOX FCST. GUSTY WNW WINDS TO NR 30 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
/NW WIND OUTFLOW GUST FRONT HAD NR 35 KTS ARD 317 PM MOUTH OF MERR
RVR AREA/

THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET.

FOR THE RECORD: MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST FOR SVRL DAYS REGARDING
THIS AFTNS LACK OF CONVECTION IN SNE THIS AFTN. THE UKMET WAS THE
BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5
RIDGING! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST TEMPS AND CK`D AGAINST
THE RGEM/NAM 2M TEMP FCST. SKY WAS GFS MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE RGEM
SKY CVR ALG 15Z-21Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH HEATING. A VERY VERY NICE
DAY...EVEN NICER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOWER RH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
GUSTS. NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG USED.

SUN NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND PASSES FAR
ENOUGH S TO MISS OUR CWA. SREF POPS USED. GFS 12Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
BLENDED WITH THE 4AM KBOX OFFICIAL FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA MHT GENERALLY FROM NOW TO 1930Z. W SFC
WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 042004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NW FLOW GUST FRONT VSBL ON TBOS IMAGERY CROSSING CAPE ANN AT 1955Z.
MWS POSTED. HAD A NW WIND GUST 36 KTS REPORTED AT NEWBURYPORT ARD 317
PM. NO MEASURABLE PCPN ASSTD THO PROB BORN OUT OF MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS IN S NH THAT PASSED THRU MHT ABOUT ABOUT AN HR AGO.

OTRW WATCHING ONE LAST CELL HEADING ESE TO THE N OF MHT AT 1955Z AND
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING.

AT 4PM FCST PRODUCTS ARE POSTED FOR A DRY 4TH OF JULY EVENING PER ALL
GUIDANCE AND THE FCST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN THE 12 MOS TO THAT OF OUR
4AM KBOX FCST. GUSTY WNW WINDS TO NR 30 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
/NW WIND OUTFLOW GUST FRONT HAD NR 35 KTS 30 MIN AGO IN MOUTH OF MERR
RVR AREA/

THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET.


FOR THE RECORD: MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST FOR SVRL DAYS REGARDING
THIS AFTNS LACK OF CONVECTION IN SNE THIS AFTN. THE UKMET WAS THE
BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA MHT GENERALLY FROM NOW TO 1930Z. W SFC
WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 404
SHORT TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041910
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
220PM...HAVE REDUCED AREA OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO ESSENTIALLY S NH AND
THE MERRIMACK RIVER AREA OF FAR NE MASS. YOU CAN SEE THE BACK EDGE ON
THE RADAR COVERAGE AS DRIER AIR ENCROACHES...CUTTING OFF CONVECTION
OR KEEPING IT SHALLOW WITH NO FURTHER GROWTH. THINK THE THREAT IS
ENDED NOW EXCEPT MHT AREA. MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST INTO SNE THIS
AFTN AND PREV SEVERAL DAYS...THE UKMET THE BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.
ALL PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE POSTED.


1146 AM: WE ARE HOLDING ONTO THE CHC TSTM FCST DUE TO CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS... INSTABILITY AND 12Z GFS PROJECTED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
EARLY THIS AFTN. WE TRIMMED THE SRN EDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER BUT JUST
DOING THESE UPDATES HOUR BY HOUR TIL SURE WE CANT HAVE A STRONG
STORM. IN MY OPINION... IF IT DOESNT DEVELOP BY 2PM...WE ARE DONE IN
MASS AND WOULD BE ALL DONE WITH THUNDER IN MHT REGION IF NIL PRIOR TO
330PM. WE HAD 30 KTS EARLIER AT ORH AND ARD 22 KTS BOS. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM AS DRIER AIR SINKS INTO OUR AREA.


915 AM: GRIDS WARMED SLIGHTLY. ADDED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE T
PTN OF S NH AND NE MASS TODAY AND TRIMMED THE POPS ON THE SRN FLANK S
OF THE MA PIKE. PRODUCTS POSTED.

845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUNDING FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA MHT GENERALLY FROM NOW TO 1930Z. W SFC
WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
220PM...HAVE REDUCED AREA OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO ESSENTIALLY S NH AND
THE MERRIMACK RIVER AREA OF FAR NE MASS. YOU CAN SEE THE BACK EDGE ON
THE RADAR COVERAGE AS DRIER AIR ENCROACHES...CUTTING OFF CONVECTION
OR KEEPING IT SHALLOW WITH NO FURTHER GROWTH. THINK THE THREAT IS
ENDED NOW EXCEPT MHT AREA. MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST INTO SNE THIS
AFTN AND PREV SEVERAL DAYS...THE UKMET THE BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.
ALL PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE POSTED.


1146 AM: WE ARE HOLDING ONTO THE CHC TSTM FCST DUE TO CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS... INSTABILITY AND 12Z GFS PROJECTED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
EARLY THIS AFTN. WE TRIMMED THE SRN EDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER BUT JUST
DOING THESE UPDATES HOUR BY HOUR TIL SURE WE CANT HAVE A STRONG
STORM. IN MY OPINION... IF IT DOESNT DEVELOP BY 2PM...WE ARE DONE IN
MASS AND WOULD BE ALL DONE WITH THUNDER IN MHT REGION IF NIL PRIOR TO
330PM. WE HAD 30 KTS EARLIER AT ORH AND ARD 22 KTS BOS. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM AS DRIER AIR SINKS INTO OUR AREA.


915 AM: GRIDS WARMED SLIGHTLY. ADDED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE T
PTN OF S NH AND NE MASS TODAY AND TRIMMED THE POPS ON THE SRN FLANK S
OF THE MA PIKE. PRODUCTS POSTED.

845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUNDING FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA MHT GENERALLY FROM NOW TO 1930Z. W SFC
WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 221
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 221
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041547
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1147 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
1146 AM: WE ARE HOLDING ONTO THE CHC TSTM FCST DUE TO CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS... INSTABILITY AND 12Z GFS PROJECTED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
EARLY THIS AFTN. WE TRIMMED THE SRN EDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER BUT JUST
DOING THESE UPDATES HOUR BY HOUR TIL SURE WE CANT HAVE A STRONG
STORM. IN MY OPINION... IF IT DOESNT DEVELOP BY 2PM...WE ARE DONE IN
MASS AND WOULD BE ALL DONE WITH THUNDER IN MHT REGION IF NIL PRIOR TO
330PM. WE HAD 30 KTS EARLIER AT ORH AND ARD 22 KTS BOS. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM AS DRIER AIR SINKS INTO OUR AREA.


915 AM: GRIDS WARMED SLIGHTLY. ADDED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE T
PTN OF S NH AND NE MASS TODAY AND TRIMMED THE POPS ON THE SRN FLANK S
OF THE MA PIKE. PRODUCTS POSTED.

845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUNDING FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 17Z-18Z. W
SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 1146A
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 1146A
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 1146A

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041321
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
921 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM: GRIDS WARMED SLIGHTLY. ADDED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE T
PTN OF S NH AND NE MASS TODAY AND TRIMMED THE POPS ON THE SRN FLANK S
OF THE MA PIKE. PRODUCTS POSTED.

845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUNDING FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 14Z-18Z.
W SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z. TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 11Z THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES CAPE AND ISLANDS TERMINALS AND
SOME OF THE LOW LYING INTERIOR SECTIONS EXCLUDING THE TERMINAL SITES.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WST DATA IS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE ASOS...COMMS PBLM. TICKETS OPEN.
PVD PBLM FIXED.
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 918A
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 918A
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 918A

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041250
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUND FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 14Z-18Z.
W SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z. TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 11Z THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES CAPE AND ISLANDS TERMINALS AND
SOME OF THE LOW LYING INTERIOR SECTIONS EXCLUDING THE TERMINAL SITES.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER
DEWPOINT AIR FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED 25 KT GUSTS AND WILL PROBABLY ISSUE SCA FOR PARTS OF
E MA COAST AROUND 930AM...NEAR SHORE PORTION INCLUDING BOS HARBOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 849A
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
836 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 14Z-18Z.
W SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z. TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 11Z THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES CAPE AND ISLANDS TERMINALS AND
SOME OF THE LOW LYING INTERIOR SECTIONS EXCLUDING THE TERMINAL SITES.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER
DEWPOINT AIR FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED 25 KT GUSTS AND WILL PROBABLY ISSUE SCA FOR PARTS OF
E MA COAST AROUND 930AM...NEAR SHORE PORTION INCLUDING BOS HARBOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 835A
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 835A

000
FXUS61 KBOX 040806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 14Z-18Z.
W SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z. TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 11Z THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES CAPE AND ISLANDS TERMINALS AND
SOME OF THE LOW LYING INTERIOR SECTIONS EXCLUDING THE TERMINAL SITES.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER
DEWPOINT AIR FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED 20-25 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ON SCA CONDITIONS AS IT IS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

EXAMINED THE LATEST WNA GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
3 FT AT BUOY 44018 EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE
SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAST ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 040755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. REDUCED OVERNIGHT
POPS FROM LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
SHORTLY.

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS TONIGHT BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND NOT AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS