000
FXUS62 KCHS 041755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH HIGH PRES THEN BUILDING FROM THE N FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-
LEVELS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN ANYWHERE IN THE AREA DUE TO THE STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GA LATE TODAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE COAST INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO MAKE A RUN FOR CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD SPELL AN END FOR CHANCES TO
LOCATE THE COASTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE SE AND AN UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A LATE NIGHT SHOWER
OR TSTM COULD BRUSH COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY AT THE NOSE OF
THE JETTING...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST ADDING
ANY POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THIS MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE POSITIONING OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME.

GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVING OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY GIVEN THE DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS INLAND FROM THE BEACHES FOR LATE DAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM
A 80+ KT H25 JET OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE. GIVEN STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND APPROACHING DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...AND WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS
MORNING.

THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
80+ KT H25 JET ON MONDAY...AND WITH PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA...NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN PLACE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME...AS CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

BEST FORCING SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CARRY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z SUN. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE APPROACHING THE TERMINALS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE RAN SOME CHECKS ON POTENTIAL CONDITIONS FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AS A FEW CUMULUS LINES ARE OFF OUR COAST AND WIND PROFILES
ARE QUITE LIGHT AND DEVIANT WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR INDICATORS. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE A MODERATE RISK OR GREATER FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY S...BUT OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF STRONG NEAR SHORE
MIXING APPEARS TO BE A NEGATING FACTOR ALONG WITH LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT PROFILES.

LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS WILL BEGIN AN INCREASING TREND TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH TIME. SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO
NEAR 15 KT NEAR 20 NM OFFSHORE AND BEYOND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT
LATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONG NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST MARINE ZONES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KGSP 041744
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY.
THEN GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 UTC SOUNDING FROM OHX WAS NEARLY SATURATED ABOVE 650 MB. WHILE WE
HAD ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERNIGHT...THE FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
FLATTER WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL CAPE FIELDS AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABLE
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT...THE PROSPECT FOR AMPLE
AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC ZONES...IS LOOKING
BETTER. SOME OF THIS MAY ALSO MANIFEST ITSELF AS A LEE SIDE CI/AC
PLUME ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET...THOUGH THE 40 KT 250 MB FLOW
THIS AFTN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK. AT ANY RATE...I/M GOING TO
INCREASE OPAQUE SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC
ZONES. POPS WILL STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO ZERO.

THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN BEST CONDITIONS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT FCST DRY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP INCREASES TO LIKELY ONLY ALONG RIGHT ALONG THE
TN BORDER. POP DROPS TO CHC FOR THE REST OF THE MTNS AND THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SLIGHT CHC SOUTH OF THERE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT
PRECIP APPEARS UNLIKELY SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHER THICKNESSES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...REMNANT MCS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
MTNS/FHILLS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY IN
WHAT STATE THE MCS WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK...BUT SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL
BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY JULY. CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT...BUT TIMING/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WORKING
AGAINST THAT THREAT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND
RESULTANT INFLUENCE ON DESTABILIZATION...WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR INFLUENCING THE EXTENT OF SEVERE STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ARRIVING AT A CONSENSUS IN SWEEPING THE FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A MONDAY THAT IS
ESSENTIALLY FREE OF CONVECTION. I/M NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS
COMPLETELY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED QUITE A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS BEING CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...IT APPEARS A QUICK RETURN TO A DRY PATTERN
IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK...AS THE EASTERN TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE POKES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS JULY...AND HISTORY HAS SHOWN
THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CAN
OVERCOME ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT ARE OTHERWISE HOSTILE TO DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...THE GFS STILL MANAGES TO BREAK OUT CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CARRIED EACH DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SCT TO BKN VFR CU WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNSET. A CIG OF HIGHER LEVEL CI AND AC WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SW THIS AFTN...THOUGH THEY WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON SUN THEY SHOULD INCREASE UP TO AROUND 10 KTS
FROM THE SW BY LATE MORNING AT MOST SITES...THOUGH THEY WILL BE
WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE AT KAVL AND KHKY...CLOSER TO A FRONT.

A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
PREVAILING PCPN AT KAVL AS THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE
AIR BY THE THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE AIRFIELD. THEREFORE I/VE GONE
WITH VCSH AND CB/S. IN FACT I DID THAT EVERYWHERE AS THE LINE SHOULD
MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY. LATER IN THE DAY...OUTSIDE THE VALID PERIOD OF
THIS SET OF TAFS...SCT TO NUMEROUS STRONGER STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPSTATE.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPSTATE
ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/JDL
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...MCAVOY

000
FXUS62 KCAE 041722
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE STATE TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STABLE
AIRMASS. MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUFKIT TIME SECTION SHOWS
CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MORE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TAPPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
PWS INCREASING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE AIRMASS COULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE GFS
BUFKIT IS HINTING AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA IN DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR SLIGHT RISK. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HIGH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. POPS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. NAM AND GFS
PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH TRYING TO
BECOME MORE DOMINANT. ACCORDINGLY...WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPS
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS ABOVE 5KFT. CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE CWA AT 17Z.  THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND LINGERING DRY AIR TO HELP PREVENT FOG.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 041451
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1051 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH HIGH PRES THEN BUILDING FROM THE N FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW-
LEVELS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS
SHOULD DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN ANYWHERE IN THE AREA DUE TO THE STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTHEAST GA LATE TODAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE COAST INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO MAKE A RUN FOR CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD SPELL AN END FOR CHANCES TO
LOCATE THE COASTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE SE AND AN UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A LATE NIGHT SHOWER
OR TSTM COULD BRUSH COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY AT THE NOSE OF
THE JETTING...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST ADDING
ANY POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THIS MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE POSITIONING OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME.

GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVING OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY GIVEN THE DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS INLAND FROM THE BEACHES FOR LATE DAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM
A 80+ KT H25 JET OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE. GIVEN STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND APPROACHING DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...AND WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS
MORNING.

THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
80+ KT H25 JET ON MONDAY...AND WITH PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA...NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN PLACE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME...AS CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

BEST FORCING SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CARRY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z/05. PTCHY
SUNRISE STRATUS AND FOG AROUND SAVANNAH SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OF THE VALID 12Z TAF RELEASE THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO FRI...CHANCE FOR TSTM FORMATION LOOKS QUITE LOW AND WE
DID NOT MENTION CB FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AND MODEL OUTPUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE RAN SOME CHECKS ON POTENTIAL CONDITIONS FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AS A FEW CUMULUS LINES ARE OFF OUR COAST AND WIND PROFILES
ARE QUITE LIGHT AND DEVIANT WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR INDICATORS. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE A MODERATE RISK OR GREATER FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY S...BUT OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF STRONG NEAR SHORE
MIXING APPEARS TO BE A NEGATING FACTOR ALONG WITH LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT PROFILES.

LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS WILL BEGIN AN INCREASING TREND TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH TIME. SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO
NEAR 15 KT NEAR 20 NM OFFSHORE AND BEYOND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT
LATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONG NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST MARINE ZONES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KGSP 041413
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 UTC SOUNDING FROM OHX WAS NEARLY SATURATED ABOVE 650 MB. WHILE WE
HAD ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERNIGHT...THE FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
FLATTER WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL CAPE FIELDS AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABLE
THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT...THE PROSPECT FOR AMPLE
AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC ZONES...IS LOOKING
BETTER. SOME OF THIS MAY ALSO MANIFEST ITSELF AS A LEE SIDE CI/AC
PLUME ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET...THOUGH THE 40 KT 250 MB FLOW
THIS AFTN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WEAK. AT ANY RATE...I/M GOING TO
INCREASE OPAQUE SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC
ZONES. POPS WILL STILL REMAIN CLOSE TO ZERO.

THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN BEST CONDITIONS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT FCST DRY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP INCREASES TO LIKELY ONLY ALONG RIGHT ALONG THE
TN BORDER. POP DROPS TO CHC FOR THE REST OF THE MTNS AND THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SLIGHT CHC SOUTH OF THERE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT
PRECIP APPEARS UNLIKELY SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHER THICKNESSES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...REMNANT MCS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
MTNS/FHILLS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY IN
WHAT STATE THE MCS WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK...BUT SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL
BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY JULY. CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT...BUT TIMING/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WORKING
AGAINST THAT THREAT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND
RESULTANT INFLUENCE ON DESTABILIZATION...WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR INFLUENCING THE EXTENT OF SEVERE STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ARRIVING AT A CONSENSUS IN SWEEPING THE FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A MONDAY THAT IS
ESSENTIALLY FREE OF CONVECTION. I/M NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS
COMPLETELY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED QUITE A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS BEING CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...IT APPEARS A QUICK RETURN TO A DRY PATTERN
IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK...AS THE EASTERN TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE POKES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS JULY...AND HISTORY HAS SHOWN
THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CAN
OVERCOME ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT ARE OTHERWISE HOSTILE TO DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...THE GFS STILL MANAGES TO BREAK OUT CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CARRIED EACH DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SCT...AND TEMPO BKN OVER THE UPSTATE DURING THE
MORNING...STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WELL. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN LIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AND BECOME BKN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER
THE MTNS TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN ENUF TO
LEAVE OUT OF KAVL TAF FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/JDL
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KGSP 041139
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THIS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED. THEREFORE...THE DRY FCST CONTINUES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS AS THICKNESSES RISE...EVEN WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS.

THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN BEST CONDITIONS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT FCST DRY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP INCREASES TO LIKELY ONLY ALONG RIGHT ALONG THE
TN BORDER. POP DROPS TO CHC FOR THE REST OF THE MTNS AND THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SLIGHT CHC SOUTH OF THERE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT
PRECIP APPEARS UNLIKELY SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHER THICKNESSES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...REMNANT MCS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
MTNS/FHILLS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY IN
WHAT STATE THE MCS WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK...BUT SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL
BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY JULY. CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT...BUT TIMING/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WORKING
AGAINST THAT THREAT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND
RESULTANT INFLUENCE ON DESTABILIZATION...WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR INFLUENCING THE EXTENT OF SEVERE STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ARRIVING AT A CONSENSUS IN SWEEPING THE FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A MONDAY THAT IS
ESSENTIALLY FREE OF CONVECTION. I/M NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS
COMPLETELY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED QUITE A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS BEING CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...IT APPEARS A QUICK RETURN TO A DRY PATTERN
IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK...AS THE EASTERN TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE POKES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS JULY...AND HISTORY HAS SHOWN
THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CAN
OVERCOME ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT ARE OTHERWISE HOSTILE TO DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...THE GFS STILL MANAGES TO BREAK OUT CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CARRIED EACH DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SCT...AND TEMPO BKN OVER THE UPSTATE DURING THE
MORNING...STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WELL. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN LIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AND BECOME BKN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER
THE MTNS TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN ENUF TO
LEAVE OUT OF KAVL TAF FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/JDL
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 041138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH HIGH PRES THEN BUILDING FROM THE N FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRE-DAWN MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
WITH A 10F-15F DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT SPREAD BETWEEN THE
MIDLANDS AND COASTAL AREAS FROM SAVANNAH TO CHARLESTON. A VERY
WEAK SURFACE WAVE JUST E OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE HAS
INCITED JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK A NOCTURNAL
SHOWER OR TWO TO THE E OF BEAUFORT OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CHANGE WE MADE TODAY WAS TO LOWER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR WHERE WE BELIEVE
THE SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE AN EARLIER APPEARANCE THAN ON FRI. 5C-6C
500 MB TEMPS INDICATIVE OF MID LEVELS THAT WILL NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
UPDRAFT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE SEA BREEZE
IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE S OF BEAUFORT...
FROM MIDTOWN SAVANNAH TO DARIEN...WE CANNOT JUSTIFY MENTIONABLE
AFTERNOON POPS TODAY. OUR OVERALL HIGH TEMP SCHEME RUNS FROM MID
80S BEACHES TO MID 90S INLAND WITH NEAR 90 ALONG U.S. 17.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE COAST INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO MAKE A RUN FOR CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD SPELL AN END FOR CHANCES TO
LOCATE THE COASTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE SE AND AN UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A LATE NIGHT SHOWER
OR TSTM COULD BRUSH COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY AT THE NOSE OF
THE JETTING...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST ADDING
ANY POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THIS MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE POSITIONING OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME.

GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVING OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY GIVEN THE DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS INLAND FROM THE BEACHES FOR LATE DAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM
A 80+ KT H25 JET OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE. GIVEN STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND APPROACHING DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...AND WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS
MORNING.

THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
80+ KT H25 JET ON MONDAY...AND WITH PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA...NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN PLACE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME...AS CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

BEST FORCING SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CARRY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z/05. PTCHY
SUNRISE STRATUS AND FOG AROUND SAVANNAH SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE
FIRST HOUR OF THE VALID 12Z TAF RELEASE THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO FRI...CHANCE FOR TSTM FORMATION LOOKS QUITE LOW AND WE
DID NOT MENTION CB FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AND MODEL OUTPUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE RAN SOME CHECKS ON POTENTIAL CONDITIONS FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AS A FEW CUMULUS LINES ARE OFF OUR COAST AND WIND PROFILES
ARE QUITE LIGHT AND DEVIANT WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR INDICATORS. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE A MODERATE RISK OR GREATER FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY S...BUT OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF STRONG NEAR SHORE
MIXING APPEARS TO BE A NEGATING FACTOR ALONG WITH LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT PROFILES.

LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS WILL BEGIN AN INCREASING TREND TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH TIME. SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO
NEAR 15 KT NEAR 20 NM OFFSHORE AND BEYOND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT
LATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONG NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST MARINE ZONES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 041114
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
714 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE STATE TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STABLE
AIRMASS. MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUFKIT TIME SECTION SHOWS
CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MORE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TAPPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
PWS INCREASING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE AIRMASS COULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE GFS
BUFKIT IS HINTING AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA IN DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR SLIGHT RISK. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HIGH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. POPS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. NAM AND GFS
PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH TRYING TO
BECOME MORE DOMINANT. ACCORDINGLY...WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPS
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. THE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEAK AND EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SHOULD OCCUR
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE MIXING AND LINGERING DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 040753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH HIGH PRES THEN BUILDING FROM THE N FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRE-DAWN MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
WITH A 10F-15F DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINT SPREAD BETWEEN THE
MIDLANDS AND COASTAL AREAS FROM SAVANNAH TO CHARLESTON. A VERY
WEAK SURFACE WAVE JUST E OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE HAS
INCITED JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SPARK A NOCTURNAL
SHOWER OR TWO TO THE E OF BEAUFORT OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CHANGE WE MADE TODAY WAS TO LOWER SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR WHERE WE BELIEVE
THE SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE AN EARLIER APPEARANCE THAN ON FRI. 5C-6C
500 MB TEMPS INDICATIVE OF MID LEVELS THAT WILL NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
UPDRAFT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE SEA BREEZE
IS ON THE WEAK SIDE AND WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE S OF BEAUFORT...
FROM MIDTOWN SAVANNAH TO DARIEN...WE CANNOT JUSTIFY MENTIONABLE
AFTERNOON POPS TODAY. OUR OVERALL HIGH TEMP SCHEME RUNS FROM MID
80S BEACHES TO MID 90S INLAND WITH NEAR 90 ALONG U.S. 17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE COAST INLAND
WITH THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO MAKE A RUN FOR CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD SPELL AN END FOR CHANCES TO
LOCATE THE COASTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE SE AND AN UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. A LATE NIGHT SHOWER
OR TSTM COULD BRUSH COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY AT THE NOSE OF
THE JETTING...BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST ADDING
ANY POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THIS MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE POSITIONING OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME.

GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVING OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY GIVEN THE DEEP
LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS INLAND FROM THE BEACHES FOR LATE DAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM
A 80+ KT H25 JET OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE. GIVEN STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND APPROACHING DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...AND WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS
MORNING.

THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
80+ KT H25 JET ON MONDAY...AND WITH PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA...NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING IN PLACE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME...AS CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

BEST FORCING SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL CARRY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS
AND KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO MID MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS...
HOWEVER THE OVERALL POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
TEMPO OR PREVAILING WINDOWS IN THE LATEST TAF SET.

SIMILAR TO FRI...CHANCE FOR TSTM FORMATION LOOKS QUITE LOW AND WE
SHOW A LACK OF CB FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AND MODEL OUTPUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE RAN SOME CHECKS ON POTENTIAL CONDITIONS FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AS A FEW CUMULUS LINES ARE OFF OUR COAST AND WIND PROFILES
ARE QUITE LIGHT AND DEVIANT WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR INDICATORS. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE A MODERATE RISK OR GREATER FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY S...BUT OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF STRONG NEAR SHORE
MIXING APPEARS TO BE A NEGATING FACTOR ALONG WITH LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT PROFILES.

LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS WILL BEGIN AN INCREASING TREND TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE WITH TIME. SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO
NEAR 15 KT NEAR 20 NM OFFSHORE AND BEYOND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT
LATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONG NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST MARINE ZONES. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRJ

000
FXUS62 KGSP 040650
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THIS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED. THEREFORE...THE DRY FCST CONTINUES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS AS THICKNESSES RISE...EVEN WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS.

THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN BEST CONDITIONS FOR
PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT FCST DRY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP INCREASES TO LIKELY ONLY ALONG RIGHT ALONG THE
TN BORDER. POP DROPS TO CHC FOR THE REST OF THE MTNS AND THE I-40
CORRIDOR. SLIGHT CHC SOUTH OF THERE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT
PRECIP APPEARS UNLIKELY SOUTH OF I-85. LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS...NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHER THICKNESSES AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...REMNANT MCS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
MTNS/FHILLS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY IN
WHAT STATE THE MCS WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK...BUT SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL
BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY JULY. CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT...BUT TIMING/WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WORKING
AGAINST THAT THREAT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND
RESULTANT INFLUENCE ON DESTABILIZATION...WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR INFLUENCING THE EXTENT OF SEVERE STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ARRIVING AT A CONSENSUS IN SWEEPING THE FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A MONDAY THAT IS
ESSENTIALLY FREE OF CONVECTION. I/M NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS
COMPLETELY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED QUITE A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS BEING CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...IT APPEARS A QUICK RETURN TO A DRY PATTERN
IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK...AS THE EASTERN TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE POKES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS...IT IS JULY...AND HISTORY HAS SHOWN
THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CAN
OVERCOME ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT ARE OTHERWISE HOSTILE TO DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...THE GFS STILL MANAGES TO BREAK OUT CONVECTIVE
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS DURING MOST AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CARRIED EACH DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SCT TO OCNL BKN STRATOCU WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT NLY WINDS CONTINUE
THRU THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME SWLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...XCPT REMAINING NLY AT KAVL. SCT CU DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SLY
THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/JDL
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCAE 040636
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE STATE TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STABLE
AIRMASS. MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUFKIT TIME SECTION SHOWS
CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS MORE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TAPPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
PWS INCREASING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE AIRMASS COULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS THE GFS
BUFKIT IS HINTING AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA IN DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR SLIGHT RISK. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HIGH
CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. POPS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. NAM AND GFS
PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
HOLDING THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH TRYING TO
BECOME MORE DOMINANT. ACCORDINGLY...WILL GO WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPS
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS. THE
MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. THE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEAK AND EXPECT VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 040531
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.  THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN PUSH SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THINGS
QUIET...WITH RELATIVELY COOL MIN TEMPS OWING TO THE LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS...CLEAR SKY...AND DRY AIR MASS. HAVE LOWERED SOME TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...MAINLY AROUND THE CLT METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH BRING H5 MVC/S INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERATED BY
MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST TONIGHT. THE LLVLS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AND THE SREF PROB OF >= 500 J/KG OF CAPE
IS ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THEREFORE IT/S AN EASY CALL OF A DRY
4TH TOMORROW.

ONE MINOR ISSUE COULD BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED FROM MCS
DEBRIS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE SKY CHARACTER BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR PARTS OF THE DAY
OVER THE NC ZONES...ALL DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL AC AND CI. FOR
NOW I/M STAYING OPTIMISTIC AND CARRYING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE EAST COAST TROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THIS FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. POPS WILL BE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE...REACHING LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. CHANCE POPS
WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE SOUTH AND
EAST REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...REPLACING THE LONG LIVED TROUGH...HOWEVER
THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKNESS PERSISTING IN THIS RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SC
COAST ON TUE...AND WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE GULF STREAM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED... AND
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY UNDER RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SCT TO OCNL BKN STRATOCU WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE UPSTATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT NLY WINDS CONTINUE
THRU THE MORNING...THEN INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME SWLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...XCPT REMAINING NLY AT KAVL. SCT CU DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SLY
THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 040528
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCHS BUT REMAINS JUST W OF
KNBC THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT SITS NEAR EXTREME SERN SC. THIS HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE
PRETTY MUCH PINNED TO THE GA COAST. SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
70S E OF THE FRONT TO TO 50S/60S W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 60S FAR INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER THE LOW
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN MIX
DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND STRONGER SEABREEZE AND A LATE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRUSH PAST SOUTHERN SC...THE CAP AND DRY LOW-
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE GA COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE HIGHER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT DROPS THROUGH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST TO PROGRESS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE SIMILAR STALLING THE FRONT
OUT OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WITH AGAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN ALL MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING.

AS FOR THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING
FRONT...HOWEVER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.

AS THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RISING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS
AND KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO MID MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS...
HOWEVER THE OVERALL POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
TEMPO OR PREVAILING WINDOWS IN THE LATEST TAF SET.

SIMILAR TO FRI...CHANCE FOR TSTM FORMATION LOOKS QUITE LOW AND WE
SHOW A LACK OF CB FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA AND MODEL OUTPUT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG
NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 040518
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACRS THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LLJ..EXPECT NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACRS THE CWA ON SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN/SUN NIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHC
FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW A RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE SUN/SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE WITH
TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL DEVELOP ACRS
THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY THEN SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z RUN OF ECMWF IS SLOWEST OF THE GFS/NAM IN
PUSHING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION BY WED. SREF POPS INDICATING
A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN
ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MON/TUE. AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES S/EWD
AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF MID/LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS. THE
MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. THE
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEAK AND EXPECT VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...JL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 040219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1019 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCHS BUT REMAINS JUST W OF
KNBC THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT SITS NEAR EXTREME SERN SC. THIS HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE
PRETTY MUCH PINNED TO THE GA COAST. SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
70S E OF THE FRONT TO TO 50S/60S W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 60S FAR INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER THE LOW
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN MIX
DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND STRONGER SEABREEZE AND A LATE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRUSH PAST SOUTHERN SC...THE CAP AND DRY LOW-
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE GA COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE HIGHER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT DROPS THROUGH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST TO PROGRESS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE SIMILAR STALLING THE FRONT
OUT OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WITH AGAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN ALL MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING.

AS FOR THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING
FRONT...HOWEVER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.

AS THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RISING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS
AND KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...YET POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
LATEST TAF SET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG
NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

RJB

000
FXUS62 KGSP 040218
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.  THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN PUSH SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP THINGS
QUIET...WITH RELATIVELY COOL MIN TEMPS OWING TO THE LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS...CLEAR SKY...AND DRY AIR MASS. HAVE LOWERED SOME TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...MAINLY AROUND THE CLT METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH BRING H5 MVC/S INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERATED BY
MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST TONIGHT. THE LLVLS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AND THE SREF PROB OF >= 500 J/KG OF CAPE
IS ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THEREFORE IT/S AN EASY CALL OF A DRY
4TH TOMORROW.

ONE MINOR ISSUE COULD BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED FROM MCS
DEBRIS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE SKY CHARACTER BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR PARTS OF THE DAY
OVER THE NC ZONES...ALL DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL AC AND CI. FOR
NOW I/M STAYING OPTIMISTIC AND CARRYING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE EAST COAST TROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THIS FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. POPS WILL BE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE...REACHING LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. CHANCE POPS
WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE SOUTH AND
EAST REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...REPLACING THE LONG LIVED TROUGH...HOWEVER
THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKNESS PERSISTING IN THIS RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SC
COAST ON TUE...AND WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE GULF STREAM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED... AND
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY UNDER RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY N OR NW WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE
TAFS FEATURE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL
HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WHEN THERE IS ANY PUFF OF WIND AT ALL.
THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...SO EXPECT WINDS TO COME AROUND FROM THE SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHO EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SOME BRIEF MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND NEAR THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AROUND
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY/PM

000
FXUS62 KGSP 032331
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.  THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN PUSH SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH NVA ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN.
NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE L50S AND U40S OVER THE MTNS...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY
TO BE A LITTLE COOLER. I BLENDED THE COLDER COOP MOS WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MINS.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH BRING H5 MVC/S INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERATED BY
MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST TONIGHT. THE LLVLS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AND THE SREF PROB OF >= 500 J/KG OF CAPE
IS ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THEREFORE IT/S AN EASY CALL OF A DRY
4TH TOMORROW.

ONE MINOR ISSUE COULD BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED FROM MCS
DEBRIS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE SKY CHARACTER BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR PARTS OF THE DAY
OVER THE NC ZONES...ALL DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL AC AND CI. FOR
NOW I/M STAYING OPTIMISTIC AND CARRYING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE EAST COAST TROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THIS FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. POPS WILL BE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE...REACHING LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. CHANCE POPS
WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE SOUTH AND
EAST REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...REPLACING THE LONG LIVED TROUGH...HOWEVER
THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKNESS PERSISTING IN THIS RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SC
COAST ON TUE...AND WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE GULF STREAM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED... AND
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY UNDER RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY N OR NW WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT AN HOUR
OR TWO AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE
TAFS FEATURE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL
HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT WHEN THERE IS ANY PUFF OF WIND AT ALL.
THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...SO EXPECT WINDS TO COME AROUND FROM THE SW IN THE
AFTERNOON. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHO EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SOME BRIEF MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND NEAR THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AROUND
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY/PM

000
FXUS62 KCAE 032328
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACRS THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LLJ..EXPECT NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACRS THE CWA ON SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN/SUN NIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHC
FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW A RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE SUN/SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE WITH
TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL DEVELOP ACRS
THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY THEN SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z RUN OF ECMWF IS SLOWEST OF THE GFS/NAM IN
PUSHING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION BY WED. SREF POPS INDICATING
A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN
ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MON/TUE. AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES S/EWD
AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF MID/LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT
FOG IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 032321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCHS BUT REMAINS JUST W OF
KNBC THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT SITS NEAR EXTREME SERN SC. THIS HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE
PINNED TO THE GA COAST. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S TODAY ON THE W SIDE OF THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER AND
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 60S FAR INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST BY
DAYBREAK SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN MIX
DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND STRONGER SEABREEZE AND A LATE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRUSH PAST SOUTHERN SC...THE CAP AND DRY LOW-
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE GA COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE HIGHER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT DROPS THROUGH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST TO PROGRESS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE SIMILAR STALLING THE FRONT
OUT OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WITH AGAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN ALL MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING.

AS FOR THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING
FRONT...HOWEVER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.

AS THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RISING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS
AND KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...YET POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
LATEST TAF SET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG
NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

RJB

000
FXUS62 KCHS 032020
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE SEABREEZE REMAINS PINNED TO THE COAST TODAY DUE TO 10 KTS OF
WESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC DEWPOINTS N OF
THE FRONT...STALLED ALONG THE SC COAST SW INTO SOUTHERN GA...HAVE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY. DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
MID 60S FAR INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN MIX
DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND STRONGER SEABREEZE AND A LATE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRUSH PAST SOUTHERN SC...THE CAP AND DRY LOW-
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE GA COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE HIGHER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT DROPS THROUGH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST TO PROGRESS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE SIMILAR STALLING THE FRONT
OUT OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WITH AGAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN ALL MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING.

AS FOR THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING
FRONT...HOWEVER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.

AS THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RISING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS AND
KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR BOTH TERMINALS...YET
POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG
NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL/JAQ

000
FXUS62 KCAE 031924
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
324 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM / THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACRS THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LLJ..EXPECT NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACRS THE CWA ON SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN/SUN NIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHC
FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW A RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE SUN/SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE WITH
TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL DEVELOP ACRS
THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY THEN SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z RUN OF ECMWF IS SLOWEST OF THE GFS/NAM IN
PUSHING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION BY WED. SREF POPS INDICATING
A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN
ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MON/TUE. AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES S/EWD
AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF MID/LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5
AND 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET.  EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CHANCE
OF LATE NIGHT FOG APPEARED LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...

000
FXUS62 KGSP 031810
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY.  THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN PUSH SOUTH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WITH NVA ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN.
NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE L50S AND U40S OVER THE MTNS...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY
TO BE A LITTLE COOLER. I BLENDED THE COLDER COOP MOS WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MINS.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH BRING H5 MVC/S INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...GENERATED BY
MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST TONIGHT. THE LLVLS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AND THE SREF PROB OF >= 500 J/KG OF CAPE
IS ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. THEREFORE IT/S AN EASY CALL OF A DRY
4TH TOMORROW.

ONE MINOR ISSUE COULD BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED FROM MCS
DEBRIS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE SKY CHARACTER BEING MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR PARTS OF THE DAY
OVER THE NC ZONES...ALL DUE TO MID AND UPPER LEVEL AC AND CI. FOR
NOW I/M STAYING OPTIMISTIC AND CARRYING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE EAST COAST TROUGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THIS FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. POPS WILL BE INCREASED WITH THIS PACKAGE...REACHING LIKELY IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. CHANCE POPS
WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASES. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE SOUTH AND
EAST REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...REPLACING THE LONG LIVED TROUGH...HOWEVER
THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKNESS PERSISTING IN THIS RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SC
COAST ON TUE...AND WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE GULF STREAM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AND POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED... AND
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY UNDER RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY TO THE WINDS. SCT CU IN THE 5 TO 7
KFT RANGE WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY...PARTICULARLY
THOSE CLOSE TO THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND DROP DOWN TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH THE FLOWING
PICKING UP OUT OF THE SW IN THE AFTN. A LITTLE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KAVL...WHICH I/VE ADDED TO THE TAF. OTHERWISE...NO VSBY OR CIG
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY

000
FXUS62 KCAE 031734
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
HOURS. A FEW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY WITH A GENERAL WNW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING OVER OUR AREA. OLD FRONT REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES BY SATURDAY BUT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RATHER LOW SO PLAN TO KEEP OVERALL
FORECAST DRY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY...LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE POP. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY. SREF POPS INDICATING A HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. GFS KEEPS FRONT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO 20-30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5
AND 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET.  EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CHANCE
OF LATE NIGHT FOG APPEARED LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 031733
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SC INTO
SOUTHEAST GA. MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED 10-15 KT OF WNW FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEABREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST WHILE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXES DOWN DURING THE
DAY. A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE HARD TO BREAK GIVEN
EXPECTED SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SURGE
OFF THE ATLC INTO EXTREME COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND ON THE NE SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES REFLECTION OVER THE GEORGIA INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. WE
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY POP HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A BIT OF LATE NIGHT PTCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
U.S. 17 CORRIDOR BUT AGAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TEXT OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW MID 60S WELL INLAND IN LOWER/MID 70S RIGHT
ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TAKING THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DISSIPATES FOR THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND MORE PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PRIMARILY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS
ACCORDINGLY. BELIEVE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOME BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE DOMINANT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS AND
KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR BOTH TERMINALS...YET
POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHTER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE OVER INTRACOASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH SEAS MAINLY BELOW 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A
FAIRLY GOOD NOCTURNAL SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 031727
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYER DRYING IS EVIDENT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY AND NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
OVERALL THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. I DID LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WHICH TAKES RH/S DOWN TO AROUND
30 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

NWLY UPPER FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY FCST
CONTINUES BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S MTNS AND LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SATURDAY
APPEAR RATHER SLIM ATTM...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE...
IF NOT LIKELY...THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO
AFFECT OUR AREA UNTIL SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN BACKED
OFF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES FOR SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
NOW IN PLACE...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS.

POPS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP SAT NIGHT...AS A REMNANT MCS
POSSIBLY TAKES AIM ON THE NC ZONES. SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST IN
ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
IN FACT...SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
AS IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE IN ANY HURRY TO CLEAR
THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS TRUE DESPITE VERY HIGH PROGGED THICKNESS VALUES...
WHICH SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY RESULT
IN A SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY TUE/WED.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY TO THE WINDS. SCT CU IN THE 5 TO 7
KFT RANGE WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY...PARTICULARLY
THOSE CLOSE TO THE MTNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND DROP DOWN TO THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING...WITH THE FLOWING
PICKING UP OUT OF THE SW IN THE AFTN. A LITTLE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KAVL...WHICH I/VE ADDED TO THE TAF. OTHERWISE...NO VSBY OR CIG
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON
MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
PATCHY MORNING FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...MCAVOY

000
FXUS62 KCHS 031448
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SC INTO
SOUTHEAST GA. MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED 10-15 KT OF WNW FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEABREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST WHILE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXES DOWN DURING THE
DAY. A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE HARD TO BREAK GIVEN
EXPECTED SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SURGE
OFF THE ATLC INTO EXTREME COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND ON THE NE SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES REFLECTION OVER THE GEORGIA INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. WE
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY POP HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A BIT OF LATE NIGHT PTCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
U.S. 17 CORRIDOR BUT AGAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TEXT OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW MID 60S WELL INLAND IN LOWER/MID 70S RIGHT
ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TAKING THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DISSIPATES FOR THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND MORE PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PRIMARILY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS
ACCORDINGLY. BELIEVE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOME BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE DOMINANT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KSAV AND KCHS. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY INVOF EITHER AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN STRONG CAP AND POOR MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR
UPDRAFTS. SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE PINNED IN CHATHAM COUNTY THAN IN
CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT BOTH TERMINALS CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND RELATIVELY LATE SEA BREEZE PASSAGES.

TOWARD DAWN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY...AT LEAST PTCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT BOTH AIRPORTS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED 6SM BR MENTIONS AFTER 06Z/04
TO INTRO THE POSSIBILITY WITH A LIGHT N OR NE SURFACE FLOW POTENTIAL.
WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG IS UNLIKELY AS CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHTER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE OVER INTRACOASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH SEAS MAINLY BELOW 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A
FAIRLY GOOD NOCTURNAL SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KGSP 031445
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYER DRYING IS EVIDENT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY AND NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
OVERALL THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. I DID LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WHICH TAKES RH/S DOWN TO AROUND
30 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

NWLY UPPER FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY FCST
CONTINUES BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S MTNS AND LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SATURDAY
APPEAR RATHER SLIM ATTM...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE...
IF NOT LIKELY...THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO
AFFECT OUR AREA UNTIL SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN BACKED
OFF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES FOR SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
NOW IN PLACE...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS.

POPS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP SAT NIGHT...AS A REMNANT MCS
POSSIBLY TAKES AIM ON THE NC ZONES. SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST IN
ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
IN FACT...SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
AS IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE IN ANY HURRY TO CLEAR
THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS TRUE DESPITE VERY HIGH PROGGED THICKNESS VALUES...
WHICH SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY RESULT
IN A SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY TUE/WED.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...FEW STRATOCU TO SKC WILL BECOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED WITH MIXING. THESE WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE OF AN
NNW DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN SPEED.
THE BIG EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KAND WHERE WINDS BECOME WLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS RETURN TO A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION BUT
LIGHT THIS EVENING ALONG WITH LINGERING STRATOCU.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KGSP 031128
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
728 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOS REMAINING CAPPED...WITH CAP
POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHENING FROM YESTERDAY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY. FCST
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL OFFSET THIS SLIGHTLY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER
80S NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UPSTATE
AND NE GA.

NWLY UPPER FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY FCST
CONTINUES BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S MTNS AND LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SATURDAY
APPEAR RATHER SLIM ATTM...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE...
IF NOT LIKELY...THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO
AFFECT OUR AREA UNTIL SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN BACKED
OFF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES FOR SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
NOW IN PLACE...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS.

POPS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP SAT NIGHT...AS A REMNANT MCS
POSSIBLY TAKES AIM ON THE NC ZONES. SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST IN
ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
IN FACT...SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
AS IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE IN ANY HURRY TO CLEAR
THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS TRUE DESPITE VERY HIGH PROGGED THICKNESS VALUES...
WHICH SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY RESULT
IN A SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY TUE/WED.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...FEW STRATOCU TO SKC WILL BECOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DEEP CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED WITH MIXING. THESE WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE OF AN
NNW DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN SPEED.
THE BIG EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KAND WHERE WINDS BECOME WLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS RETURN TO A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION BUT
LIGHT THIS EVENING ALONG WITH LINGERING STRATOCU.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCHS 031127
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA TO
STATESBORO GEORGIA AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SAG SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING AND BECOMING TANGLED UP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DEEP LAYERED W
FLOW AND AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S MANY INLAND AREAS. DESPITE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...
THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CONVERGENCE BREAKING A DECENT MID LEVEL
CAP. THIS ALONG WITH 1000MB-500MB RH BELOW 45 PERCENT AND A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WERE ENOUGH REASONS TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST. OF COURSE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TSTM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH I-95 IN SE
GEORGIA PRIOR TO DUSK AND ONLY SLOW ADVANCEMENT TO THE N AROUND
CHARLESTON AS MEAN FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER TODAY. NO CHANGE TO VERY
WARM MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S SE SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOLID MID 90S
OVER SE GEORGIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SURGE
OFF THE ATLC INTO EXTREME COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND ON THE NE SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES REFLECTION OVER THE GEORGIA INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. WE
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY POP HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A BIT OF LATE NIGHT PTCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
U.S. 17 CORRIDOR BUT AGAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TEXT OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW MID 60S WELL INLAND IN LOWER/MID 70S RIGHT
ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TAKING THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DISSIPATES FOR THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND MORE PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PRIMARILY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS
ACCORDINGLY. BELIEVE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOME BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE DOMINANT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KSAV AND KCHS. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY INVOF EITHER AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN STRONG CAP AND POOR MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR
UPDRAFTS. SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE PINNED IN CHATHAM COUNTY THAN IN
CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT BOTH TERMINALS CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND RELATIVELY LATE SEA BREEZE PASSAGES.

TOWARD DAWN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY...AT LEAST PTCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT BOTH AIRPORTS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED 6SM BR MENTIONS AFTER 06Z/04
TO INTRO THE POSSIBILITY WITH A LIGHT N OR NE SURFACE FLOW POTENTIAL.
WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG IS UNLIKELY AS CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL SOME JETTING LIKELY OCCURRING OVER OUR GEORGIA
WATERS BUT WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB FLOW SUGGEST WE
CAN LOWER OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. 15-20
KT FLOW FROM THE WSW WILL COME DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AROUND
GRAYS REEF SEAWARD AND SEAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FT
TO 2-3 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHTER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE
OVER INTRACOASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SEAS MAINLY BELOW 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A
FAIRLY GOOD NOCTURNAL SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 031126
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
726 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
HOURS. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED SO SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK TO MORE
NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY WITH A GENERAL WNW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING OVER OUR AREA. OLD FRONT REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES BY SATURDAY BUT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RATHER LOW SO PLAN TO KEEP OVERALL
FORECAST DRY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE POP. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY. SREF POPS INDICATING A HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. GFS KEEPS FRONT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
REDEVELOPS ACROS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO 20-30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MODELS KEPT
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THERE WAS LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. EXPECT JUST
SCATTERED CUMULUS. THE CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT FOG APPEARED LOW
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 030814
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
414 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWING UP KCLX/KCAE RADAR IMAGERY
AS A FINE LINE EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY A DEW POINT DELINEATION
BOUNDARY. THIS WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SE INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY...STALLING LATE AND BECOMING TANGLED UP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DEEP
LAYERED W FLOW AND AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S MANY INLAND AREAS. DESPITE THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CONVERGENCE TO BREAK A DECENT
MID LEVEL CAP AND 1000MB-500MB RH BELOW 45 PERCENT AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WERE ENOUGH REASONS TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OF COURSE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH I-95 IN SE
GEORGIA PRIOR TO DUSK AND ONLY SLOW ADVANCEMENT TO THE N AROUND
CHARLESTON AS MEAN FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER TODAY. NO CHANGE TO VERY
WARM MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S SE SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOLID MID 90S
OVER SE GEORGIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SURGE
OFF THE ATLC INTO EXTREME COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND ON THE NE SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES REFLECTION OVER THE GEORGIA INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. WE
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY POP HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A BIT OF LATE NIGHT PTCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
U.S. 17 CORRIDOR BUT AGAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TEXT OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW MID 60S WELL INLAND IN LOWER/MID 70S RIGHT
ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TAKING THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DISSIPATES FOR THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND MORE PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PRIMARILY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS
ACCORDINGLY. BELIEVE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOME BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE DOMINANT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THE 06Z TAF CYCLE AT
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS. LIGHT AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY
INVOF EITHER AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN STRONG CAP
AND POOR MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFTS. SEA BREEZE WILL BE
MORE PINNED IN CHATHAM COUNTY THAN IN CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BOTH TERMINALS CAN EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND
RELATIVELY LATE SEA BREEZE PASSAGES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL SOME JETTING LIKELY OCCURRING OVER OUR GEORGIA
WATERS BUT WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB FLOW SUGGEST WE
CAN LOWER OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. 15-20
KT FLOW FROM THE WSW WILL COME DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AROUND
GRAYS REEF SEAWARD AND SEAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FT
TO 2-3 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHTER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE
OVER INTRACOAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SEAS MAINLY BELOW 2-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A
FAIRLY GOOD NOCTURNAL SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

JRJ

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030715
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOS REMAINING CAPPED...WITH CAP
POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHENING FROM YESTERDAY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY. FCST
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL OFFSET THIS SLIGHTLY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MTN VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER
80S NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UPSTATE
AND NE GA.

NWLY UPPER FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. DRY FCST
CONTINUES BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S MTNS AND LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SATURDAY
APPEAR RATHER SLIM ATTM...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE...
IF NOT LIKELY...THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO
AFFECT OUR AREA UNTIL SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN BACKED
OFF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES FOR SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
NOW IN PLACE...MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS.

POPS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP SAT NIGHT...AS A REMNANT MCS
POSSIBLY TAKES AIM ON THE NC ZONES. SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST IN
ALL AREAS FOR MONDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
IN FACT...SOLID CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
AS IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BE IN ANY HURRY TO CLEAR
THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS IS TRUE DESPITE VERY HIGH PROGGED THICKNESS VALUES...
WHICH SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY ENHANCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY RESULT
IN A SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY TUE/WED.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA AND WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST. STRATOCU OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL. ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATOCU WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS DURING THE MORNING WITH A
BRIEF VFR CIG AT KAVL POSSIBLE. THE CLOUDS COULD KEEP THE MVFR VSBY
FROM DEVELOPING AND KAVL...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG...SO KEPT IT IN. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING.

WINDS WILL BECOME BACK A LITTLE MOST LOCATIONS...BUT BECOME WESTERLY
AT KAND...DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT AFTERNOON CU ONCE AGAIN...BUT
NO CONVECTION. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN DURING THE EVENING WITH
DISSIPATING CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCAE 030708
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
308 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
HOURS. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED SO SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK TO MORE
NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY WITH A GENERAL WNW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING OVER OUR AREA. OLD FRONT REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES BY SATURDAY BUT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RATHER LOW SO PLAN TO KEEP OVERALL
FORECAST DRY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE POP. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY. SREF POPS INDICATING A HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. GFS KEEPS FRONT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
REDEVELOPS ACROS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO 20-30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030539
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE EARLIER FORECAST THAT A FEW SHOWERS
MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING WHERE SOME WEAK
MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS EXPECTED. LATEST KGSP
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG I-85 EAST OF SPARTANBURG. FORECAST
WILL BE TWEAKED TO INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG/S OF I-85 AND
EAST OF I-26. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED SO TRENDS
WILL ALSO BE UPDATED FOR THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LONG
GONE BY MIDNIGHT...SO THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

THE H5 LONG WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI. THIS
WILL PUT US IN AN AREA OF DRY...NW FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS EVEN
MORE CAPPED TOMORROW AND I DON/T SEE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRI. THICKNESSES WILL BE A HAIR
LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD STILL HELP TO
PUSH FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT MAX TEMPS TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
DEAMPLIFY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC WEAKENS AND
A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH ONTARIO. WEAK...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE BORDER OF FL AND GA. ON SATURDAY THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND WEAK
UPGLIDE OVER IT PRODUCES CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA THAT
LAST INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...WHILE MODEL CAPE VALUES SUPPORT MENTION OF
THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH A TREND TOWARD
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUMS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EAST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. ON
THURSDAY THE SECOND FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA.
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BE CARRIED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SECOND FRONT HAS LESS MOISTURE...AND POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY EXHIBIT A LIMITED DIURNAL
RANGE UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTS...WITH MAXIMUMS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AND MINIMUMS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA AND WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST. STRATOCU OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL. ANOTHER
AREA OF STRATOCU WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS DURING THE MORNING WITH A
BRIEF VFR CIG AT KAVL POSSIBLE. THE CLOUDS COULD KEEP THE MVFR VSBY
FROM DEVELOPING AND KAVL...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR BRIEF MVFR FOG...SO KEPT IT IN. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING.

WINDS WILL BECOME BACK A LITTLE MOST LOCATIONS...BUT BECOME WESTERLY
AT KAND...DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT AFTERNOON CU ONCE AGAIN...BUT
NO CONVECTION. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN DURING THE EVENING WITH
DISSIPATING CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

000
FXUS62 KCAE 030537
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THE COMBINATION OF
LITTLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL COOLING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE US EAST COAST. EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY AND CAPPED CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA FRIDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
SOME UPPER IMPULSES IN A NW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...TO AFFECT US BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION BY SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST SOME...WHILE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY
STALL OR ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES/SURFACE WAVES MOVE BY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS62 KCHS 030536
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID-EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT BUT CURRENT MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THE
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WHICH HELPED SPARK A QLCS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA EARLIER IS RAPIDLY SHEARING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST PER WATER VAPOR TRENDS WITH WEAK NVA NOTED IN ITS
WAKE. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE COAST...SUSPECT
THE WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION INDUCED BY THE NVA ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
FAR INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/ NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY 1-2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THE 06Z TAF CYCLE AT
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS. LIGHT AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY
INVOF EITHER AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN STRONG CAP
AND POOR MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFTS. SEA BREEZE WILL BE
MORE PINNED IN CHATHAM COUNTY THAN IN CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BOTH TERMINALS CAN EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND
RELATIVELY LATE SEA BREEZE PASSAGES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE MARINE FORECAST TONIGHT. DO
PLAN ON PULLING BACK THE ENDING TIME FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY SEVERAL HOURS PER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL PEAK 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL
WEAKEN FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 030124 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
924 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT AND POOLING DEWPOINTS JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AROUND THE CHARLOTTE AREA. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHOWERS. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST WITHIN A FEW HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE US EAST COAST. EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY AND CAPPED CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA FRIDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
SOME UPPER IMPULSES IN A NW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...TO AFFECT US BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION BY SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST SOME...WHILE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY
STALL OR ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES/SURFACE WAVES MOVE BY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST. DRIER
AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS RELAXING SO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AFTER 03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE NO FOG TONIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 030110
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
910 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID-EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT BUT CURRENT MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THE
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WHICH HELPED SPARK A QLCS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA EARLIER IS RAPIDLY SHEARING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST PER WATER VAPOR TRENDS WITH WEAK NVA NOTED IN ITS
WAKE. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE COAST...SUSPECT
THE WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION INDUCED BY THE NVA ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
FAR INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/ NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY 1-2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE WITH LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
FOG TO BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY THUS DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE MARINE FORECAST TONIGHT. DO
PLAN ON PULLING BACK THE ENDING TIME FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY SEVERAL HOURS PER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL PEAK 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL
WEAKEN FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 030059
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
859 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE EARLIER FORECAST THAT A FEW SHOWERS
MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING WHERE SOME WEAK
MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS EXPECTED. LATEST KGSP
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG I-85 EAST OF SPARTANBURG. FORECAST
WILL BE TWEAKED TO INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG/S OF I-85 AND
EAST OF I-26. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED SO TRENDS
WILL ALSO BE UPDATED FOR THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LONG
GONE BY MIDNIGHT...SO THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD.

THE H5 LONG WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI. THIS
WILL PUT US IN AN AREA OF DRY...NW FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS EVEN
MORE CAPPED TOMORROW AND I DON/T SEE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRI. THICKNESSES WILL BE A HAIR
LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD STILL HELP TO
PUSH FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT MAX TEMPS TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
DEAMPLIFY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC WEAKENS AND
A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH ONTARIO. WEAK...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE BORDER OF FL AND GA. ON SATURDAY THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND WEAK
UPGLIDE OVER IT PRODUCES CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA THAT
LAST INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...WHILE MODEL CAPE VALUES SUPPORT MENTION OF
THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH A TREND TOWARD
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUMS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EAST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. ON
THURSDAY THE SECOND FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA.
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BE CARRIED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SECOND FRONT HAS LESS MOISTURE...AND POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY EXHIBIT A LIMITED DIURNAL
RANGE UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTS...WITH MAXIMUMS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AND MINIMUMS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING SHIFTING THE WIND FROM SW OR W AROUND
TO THE NW AND N BY LATE EVENING. ANY STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE NW. A FEW HIGH BASED STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE INVERSION ALOFT WILL CAP OFF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE IN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT KAVL. THE FOG
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM

000
FXUS62 KCHS 022341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWS TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A WELL
DEFINED QLCS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THESE STORMS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN
FRINGES POSSIBLY BRUSHING PARTS OF MCINTOSH...LONG AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO LOWER POPS
SLIGHTLY AND TO REMOVE MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED DCAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG SUGGEST A SEVERE TSTM
COULD STILL FIRE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...THE RISK APPEARS
VERY LIMITED ATTM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND KCLX REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCTS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM BEAUFORT
NORTH THROUGH SUMMERVILLE AND SHULERVILLE. COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTM FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED...ALTHOUGH IT
DOES APPEAR MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE WITH LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
FOG TO BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY THUS DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...S/SW WINDS SHOULD SURGE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...20-25 KNOTS WILL SEAS APPROACHING 5-6
FT...BEYOND 20 NM. WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS S/SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AND WILL DIMINISH
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SINCE
12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
W/SW WINDS WILL SHIFT E/SE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER THE PRESSURE PATTERN/WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...OPTED NOT TO RAISE NEW SCA FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL WEAKEN
FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KGSP 022327
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
727 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB HAS GENERALLY PUT
A LID ON CONVECTION TODAY. THERE IS A HEALTHY CU FIELD OVER THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS...AND EVEN A FEW WEAK SHRA SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL
RADARS...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT. AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THE NAM SHOWS AN AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG CAPES MOVING OUT
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT IN AN AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
AND MOISTURE POOLING. A FEW TSTMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WHERE LAYER RH/S ARE
HIGHER. THEREFORE I/VE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO THE I-40
CORRIDOR FOR THIS EVENING. THE 4KM WRF ALSO GENERATES A FEW SHRA IN
THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

THE H5 LONG WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI. THIS
WILL PUT US IN AN AREA OF DRY...NW FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS EVEN
MORE CAPPED TOMORROW AND I DON/T SEE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRI. THICKNESSES WILL BE A HAIR
LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT THE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD STILL HELP TO
PUSH FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT MAX TEMPS TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
DEAMPLIFY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC WEAKENS AND
A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH THROUGH ONTARIO. WEAK...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE BORDER OF FL AND GA. ON SATURDAY THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND WEAK
UPGLIDE OVER IT PRODUCES CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA THAT
LAST INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...WHILE MODEL CAPE VALUES SUPPORT MENTION OF
THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH A TREND TOWARD
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXIMUMS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MINIMUMS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EAST DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH AMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN ON WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA FORM THE NORTHWEST. ON
THURSDAY THE SECOND FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA.
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BE CARRIED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SECOND FRONT HAS LESS MOISTURE...AND POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY EXHIBIT A LIMITED DIURNAL
RANGE UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTS...WITH MAXIMUMS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AND MINIMUMS SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING SHIFTING THE WIND FROM SW OR W AROUND
TO THE NW AND N BY LATE EVENING. ANY STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE NW. A FEW HIGH BASED STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE INVERSION ALOFT WILL CAP OFF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

SOME FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE IN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD LOWER THE VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT KAVL. THE FOG
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM

000
FXUS62 KCAE 022325
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SC
COAST AND ACROSS S GA. NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY...OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA)...LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PREVENTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...STRETCHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF VA/NC WEST ACROSS KY/TN. VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING SE ACROSS E TENN. THE PATH OF THIS IMPULSE
SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND ANY CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY/MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE US EAST COAST. EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY AND CAPPED CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA FRIDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
SOME UPPER IMPULSES IN A NW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...TO AFFECT US BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION BY SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST SOME...WHILE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY
STALL OR ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES/SURFACE WAVES MOVE BY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST. DRIER
AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS RELAXING SO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AFTER 03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE NO FOG TONIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 022208
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
608 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWS TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A WELL
DEFINED QLCS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THESE STORMS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN
FRINGES POSSIBLY BRUSHING PARTS OF MCINTOSH...LONG AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO LOWER POPS
SLIGHTLY AND TO REMOVE MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED DCAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG SUGGEST A SEVERE TSTM
COULD STILL FIRE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...THE RISK APPEARS
VERY LIMITED ATTM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND KCLX REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCTS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM BEAUFORT
NORTH THROUGH SUMMERVILLE AND SHULERVILLE. COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTM FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED...ALTHOUGH IT
DOES APPEAR MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS FOR KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE ARE
MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT KSAV INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP NEAR THE SEA BREEZE IN THE KCHS
VICINITY. WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THEN...GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR FOG AFTER 10Z
FOR BOTH SITES...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IF RAIN
OCCURS THIS EVENING. YET...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PATCHY
DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER N/NE FRIDAY UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...S/SW WINDS SHOULD SURGE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...20-25 KNOTS WILL SEAS APPROACHING 5-6
FT...BEYOND 20 NM. WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS S/SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AND WILL DIMINISH
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SINCE
12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
W/SW WINDS WILL SHIFT E/SE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER THE PRESSURE PATTERN/WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...OPTED NOT TO RAISE NEW SCA FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL WEAKEN
FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 021942
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
342 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM INLAND SECTIONS
OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION W/SW ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 16. FURTHER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE COAST...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN
ELONGATED/POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ADVANCING INTO W/SW GA AND
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS HAD
ERUPTED WITHIN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY/CLOSE TO THE SHORTWAVE.

INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES E MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS AHEAD OF THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE. SBCAPES STARTING IN THE
3000-4000 J/KG RANGE...DOWNDRAFT CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND MID
LEVEL DRY AIR/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 11.5-12.5 KFT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND
LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ENHANCE DEEP
MOIST UPDRAFTS. ADDED A MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PUBLIC
PRODUCTS UNTIL 10 PM...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SCENARIO COVERED
WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WITH STABILIZATION DUE TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
PRECIPITATION...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES/COASTAL WATERS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...LOCAL STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
FAVORED AREAS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT UNFOLDS...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY FOG WITHIN FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO
75-80F AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS FOR KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE ARE
MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT KSAV INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP NEAR THE SEA BREEZE IN THE KCHS
VICINITY. WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THEN...GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR FOG AFTER 10Z
FOR BOTH SITES...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IF RAIN
OCCURS THIS EVENING. YET...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PATCHY
DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER N/NE FRIDAY UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...S/SW WINDS SHOULD SURGE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...20-25 KNOTS WILL SEAS APPROACHING 5-6
FT...BEYOND 20 NM. WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS S/SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AND WILL DIMINISH
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SINCE
12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
W/SW WINDS WILL SHIFT E/SE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER THE PRESSURE PATTERN/WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...OPTED NOT TO RAISE NEW SCA FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL WEAKEN
FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 021855
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.  ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SC
COAST AND ACROSS S GA. NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY...OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA)...LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PREVENTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...STRETCHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF VA/NC WEST ACROSS KY/TN. VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING SE ACROSS E TENN. THE PATH OF THIS IMPULSE
SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND ANY CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY/MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE US EAST COAST. EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY AND CAPPED CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA FRIDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
SOME UPPER IMPULSES IN A NW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...TO AFFECT US BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION BY SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST SOME...WHILE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY
STALL OR ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES/SURFACE WAVES MOVE BY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-06Z
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE FRONT AND DRY AIR WILL
KEEP WINDS UP TO 6-10 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD KEEP
ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON 18Z-00Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
PUBLIC...DCM
AVIATION...TTH