000
FXUS63 KUNR 051621
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1021 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO. 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CAP REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SO HAVE
PUSHED THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST...COVERING
MAINLY NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS THE MODELS ARE ALSO UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH MODEL DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN INDICATED
BY THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS. THAT DIFFERENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS
VICINITY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MT
INTO EASTERN CO. SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER EASTERN MT AND PARTS
OF UT. ACTIVITY FROM THESE WAVES SHOULD PASS THE CWA TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH THIS MORNING. MAIN WAVE OF NOTE IS PV WIGGLE ENTERING
CA. THIS ENERGY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO CO BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
CWA. BUT 750J/KG CAPE AND MINIMAL CAP WILL SET STAGE FOR LOW POP -TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINAL. HIGHS TODAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
GIVEN ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS MONDAY AND PEAKS TUESDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED MONDAY...BUT ENOUGH ENERGY MAY TOP TO THE
RIDGE TO PRODUCE TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS WEAK LOW AND
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. WILL BE BATTLING SUBSTANTIAL CAP...BUT
CAPE VALUES FROM 2-3KJ/KG NOTED OVER CENTRAL SD DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE 90F IN MANY LOCATIONS. HIGHS
TUESDAY TRICKY GIVEN POSITION OF FRONT...BUT LIKELY ABOVE 90F OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND IN THE 80S TO THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. A BIG PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL ALSO SET UP ON THE NORTHWEST COAST AND SPIN OFF SEVERAL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
STRONGEST OF THESE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 051610 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1110 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. FAIR WEATHER
CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL
PERCENTAGE IN FOR SKY COVER. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES. NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS MOVED INTO THE CWA AND SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS PRESENT
AS MODELS AGREE ON DECENT 850MB WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL AS
INCREASING OMEGA VALUES AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. MUCAPE VALUES
WILL REACH 1000-2000 J/KG HOWEVER THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CAPPING. THE GFS SHOWS 700MB
TEMPS RISING TO 14C ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND NAM NEARING
12C. GIVEN THIS...HAVE LIMITED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTHEAST CWA
ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. THIS AREA IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH GREATEST
SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
PCPN AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE LONG
WAVE/SFC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT 120 HOURS...AND THEN DIVERGE. THE
GFS/ECMWF LOOK QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE WEST COAST ENERGY EJECTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
BUT THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
CAPPING EVEN AROUND MAX HEATING ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO...DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM...DECIDED TO STAY WITH THE INHERITED ISOLATED/SCT POPS FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. QUITE WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BACK SOME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MADE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR MODIFICATIONS
TO THE TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...KRAMLICH
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 051350
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
850 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MADE AN EARLY COSMETIC ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE EARLY MRNG PATCHY
FOG...AND ALSO GO SUNNY REST OF DAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14. MORE CLOUDS
ALG AND NORTH OF 14...AND ALSO MAY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT AN ISOLD LATE
AFTN TSTM WITH WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. ALSO UPPD HIGHS A COUPLE
DEG IN NW IA WITH MAX MIXING EXPCD TDA...OTRW LIT CHG. /RYRHOLM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR UFN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS RECENT RAINS HAVE
SATURATED THE LOW LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE.  VISIBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN HANGING IN THE FOUR TO SIX MILES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBKX
WHERE VISIBILITY HAS TANKED DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. GIVEN
RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...DO NOT EXPECT VSBYS
OF 1/4 MI TO BECOME WDSPRD AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT DO NOT HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LACK
OF DYNAMICS/FOCUSING MECHANISM. BEST CHANCES FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM APPEAR TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...WHERE THERE IS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOOKED FAIRLY GOOD...AND ALTERED TEMPERATURES
VERY LITTLE.

NARY A BREATH OF WIND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THERE COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE A LITTLE BIT OF FOG TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
EVAPORATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.  IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT IT IN THE VALLEYS AND GENERALLY
IN THE 4-6 SM CATEGORY.

WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-29.  ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION LEFT BY LATE AFTERNOON...HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NOSING INTO THIS REGION.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO CAP
OFF ANY CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH AND WESTERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA. HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE
MID 90S...WITH UPPER 80S FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAT...HUMIDITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS GULF
BEGINS TO OPEN UP.

CONNECTION BECOMES MUCH STRONGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  BOTH THE 12 AND 00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF...THE 00Z GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 00Z CANADIAN (THOUGH
DISPLACED TO THE EAST) SUGGEST A MCS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND DECENT FORCING.

THEREAFTER...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
WHAT WILL HAPPEN.  GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH MCS...BUT IS
QUICK TO DEVELOP RETURN FLOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE
THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE...AND FAVOR MORE THE
TIMING OF THE ECMWF WHICH LEAVES FRONT IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN KICKER WAVE TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON MCS
TIMING FROM NIGHT BEFORE...WITH 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTION
COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GFS SUGGESTED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE THROUGH
FORECAST AREA...IGNITING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.  FOR
NOW...LEFT SOME 12 HOUR POPS ACROSS EASTERN CWA UNTIL A SOLUTION
BECOMES MORE CLEAR. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE NOT GONE AS COOL
AS ADJMEX GUIDANCE (WHICH SHOWS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA)...BUT HAVE RATHER TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST WITH EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CONVECTION. /BT

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 050909
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
409 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS MOVED INTO THE CWA AND SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST AND AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION LEAVING THE FORECAST DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH THE CWA. SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS PRESENT
AS MODELS AGREE ON DECENT 850MB WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS AS WELL AS
INCREASING OMEGA VALUES AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. MUCAPE VALUES
WILL REACH 1000-2000 J/KG HOWEVER THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CAPPING. THE GFS SHOWS 700MB
TEMPS RISING TO 14C ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AND NAM NEARING
12C. GIVEN THIS...HAVE LIMITED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTHEAST
CWA ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP. THIS AREA IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH
GREATEST SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
PCPN AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM.
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE LONG
WAVE/SFC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT 120 HOURS...AND THEN DIVERGE. THE
GFS/ECMWF LOOK QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE WEST COAST ENERGY EJECTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
BUT THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
CAPPING EVEN AROUND MAX HEATING ACROSS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO...DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL
SYSTEM...DECIDED TO STAY WITH THE INHERITED ISOLATED/SCT POPS FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD. QUITE WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY WILL SLIP BACK SOME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MADE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR MODIFICATIONS
TO THE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...KRAMLICH
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 050903
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS RECENT RAINS HAVE
SATURATED THE LOW LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE.  VISIBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN HANGING IN THE FOUR TO SIX MILES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBKX
WHERE VISIBILITY HAS TANKED DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. GIVEN
RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...DO NOT EXPECT
VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MI TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEADLINES.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT DO NOT HAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DUE TO LACK
OF DYNAMICS/FOCUSING MECHANISM. BEST CHANCES FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM APPEAR TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...WHERE THERE IS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S LOOKED FAIRLY GOOD...AND ALTERED TEMPERATURES
VERY LITTLE.

NARY A BREATH OF WIND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THERE COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE A LITTLE BIT OF FOG TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
EVAPORATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.  IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT IT IN THE VALLEYS AND GENERALLY
IN THE 4-6 SM CATEGORY.

WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND HAVE RAISED FORECAST
HIGHS ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-29.  ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION LEFT BY LATE AFTERNOON...HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AS 20-30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NOSING INTO THIS REGION.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO CAP
OFF ANY CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH AND WESTERN 2/3 OF FORECAST
AREA. HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE
MID 90S...WITH UPPER 80S FURTHER EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAT...HUMIDITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS GULF
BEGINS TO OPEN UP.

CONNECTION BECOMES MUCH STRONGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  BOTH THE 12 AND 00Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF...THE 00Z GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 00Z CANADIAN (THOUGH
DISPLACED TO THE EAST) SUGGEST A MCS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND DECENT FORCING.

THEREAFTER...MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
WHAT WILL HAPPEN.  GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH MCS...BUT IS
QUICK TO DEVELOP RETURN FLOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE
THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE...AND FAVOR MORE THE
TIMING OF THE ECMWF WHICH LEAVES FRONT IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN KICKER WAVE TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON MCS
TIMING FROM NIGHT BEFORE...WITH 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTION
COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GFS SUGGESTED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO WILL MOVE THROUGH
FORECAST AREA...IGNITING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.  FOR
NOW...LEFT SOME 12 HOUR POPS ACROSS EASTERN CWA UNTIL A SOLUTION
BECOMES MORE CLEAR. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HAVE NOT GONE AS COOL
AS ADJMEX GUIDANCE (WHICH SHOWS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA)...BUT HAVE RATHER TRENDED
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST WITH EXPECTATION OF CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CONVECTION. /BT

&&
.AVIATION...
THERE WL BE AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDS THROUGH AROUND 13Z THIS
MORNING...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER. AFTERWARDS...CONDS SHOULD THEN BE VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING.       /MJF

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

BT/MJF

000
FXUS63 KUNR 050822
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MT
INTO EASTERN CO. SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER EASTERN MT AND PARTS
OF UT. ACTIVITY FROM THESE WAVES SHOULD PASS THE CWA TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH THIS MORNING. MAIN WAVE OF NOTE IS PV WIGGLE ENTERING
CA. THIS ENERGY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO CO BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
CWA. BUT 750J/KG CAPE AND MINIMAL CAP WILL SET STAGE FOR LOW POP -TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINAL. HIGHS TODAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
GIVEN ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS MONDAY AND PEAKS TUESDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED MONDAY...BUT ENOUGH ENERGY MAY TOP TO THE
RIDGE TO PRODUCE TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS WEAK LOW AND
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. WILL BE BATTLING SUBSTANTIAL CAP...BUT
CAPE VALUES FROM 2-3KJ/KG NOTED OVER CENTRAL SD DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE 90F IN MANY LOCATIONS. HIGHS
TUESDAY TRICKY GIVEN POSITION OF FRONT...BUT LIKELY ABOVE 90F OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND IN THE 80S TO THE NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. A BIG PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL ALSO SET UP ON THE NORTHWEST COAST AND SPIN OFF SEVERAL WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE
STRONGEST OF THESE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE SKY CONDITIONS IN MOST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION IS KRAP WHERE A
LAYER OF SMOKE FROM A NEARBY FIRE HAS RESULTED IN IFR VSBYS OVER THE
ASOS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

HELGESON/CARPENTER

000
FXUS63 KABR 050237
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
937 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
COOLS...AND WINDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE GONE CALM. A FEW ISOLD
SHOWERS REMAIN OUT NEAR KMBG AND NORTH OF THE BORDER IN
NODAK...AND EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. EXCEPT FOR
HOURLY TEMP/WIND/DWPT TWEAKS...INHERITED SET OF GRIDS ON TRACK.

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE
WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT LIS FALL INTO THE -2 TO -4
RANGE AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING LOW PRESSURE FURTHER EAST AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...WHILE THE NAM HAS A MORE
WESTERLY SOLUTION...THEREBY KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA. BIGGEST ISSUES LOOK TO BE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
A LACK OF MOISTURE. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. H7
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE +10 TO +12 DEGREE RANGE BY MONDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CAP. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED AT
THIS TIME TO LEAVE THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...THEN WILL SEE
DECENT WAA BEGIN TO DEVELOP. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S BY MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES A GOOD
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA DAYS
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FROPA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH THIS CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON THURSDAY. SO...CONTINUED THE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. ALONG WITH WAA...PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PUMPED UP INTO THE CWA...WHICH REALLY PUTS A
PREMIUM ON INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY /AND ALSO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES/. SO...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP FOR TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME...AND THEN KEPT SOME POPS MENTION IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ON THURSDAY...POPS ARE RELEGATED TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT
GO UP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA IN THE MOISTURE-RICH AIR IN
PLACE. POPS/WX MENTION WERE THEN TURNED OFF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING THOSE FORECAST PERIODS DRY ONES...WITH
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA ENSUING BEHIND THE FROPA
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING THROUGH THE REGION. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALSO BECOME SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AS A RESULT...COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. BY
SATURDAY /DAY 7/...RETURN FLOW IS AFFECTING THIS CWA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL POP
MENTION FOR SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 050152
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
850 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
EXPECT THAT SKIES NORTH OF I90 WILL BE COME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS CU DISSIPATES. A FEW MID CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SW
MN LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS THE MID CLOUDS IN NW IA MOVE SOUTHEAST.  WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT AND EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PREVIOUS NIGHTS RAIN SET UP IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

UPDATED GRIDS AND PFM OUT SHORTLY. NO CHANGES TO ZFP EXPECTED.
/SCHUMACHER

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH CLEARING SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND ABUNDANT NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AT TAF
SITES. LOCAL VISIBILITIES COULD FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE...BEFORE
IMPROVING AFTER 13Z SUNDAY.  /JM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE BASED THIS AFTN...BUT INSTABILITY
RATHER WEAK AND SEEMS TO GET SOMEWHAT CAPPED OFF IN THE MID LVLS...
BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA MAINLY NERN HLF CWA UNTIL EARLY
EVE. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP FM NW TO SE IN CWA THRU EARLY
EVE AS NLY FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN FM NORTH.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STAY RATHER MOIST WITH RECENT RAINS
AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT.
SO PUT IN PATCHY FOG LATE ESP WRN TO SRN CWA...WHERE BEST DECOUPLING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME MORE WDSPRD FOG IF
CONDITIONS ARE MORE OPTIMUM. /RYRHOLM

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH NO MENTN OF FOG FOR SUN MRNG...BUT IF FOG BCMS
WDSPRD AS MENTND ABV...WE WILL HAVE TO ADD MRNG MENTN. OTRW EXPECT A
FAIRLY SUNNY DAY SUN WITH SOME CUD MAINLY ERN CWA. WK WV SHOWN BY
NAM YSTDY AT THIS TIME FOR LATE SUN LOOKS EVEN WEAKER TDA AND OTHER
MODELS HAVE LTL OR NOTHING...SO WILL CUT SLGT MENTN OF TSTMS NERN
FCST AREA FOR LATE SUN. WITH THE SUN TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY 80-85...OR PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDNCE.

WE HAVE THE SAME PRBLM WITH A CPL PF VERY WEAK WVS COMING ACRS FOR
MON AND AGN BY LATE TUE...BUT NOT MUCH OTHER SUPPORT AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP FCST MENTN DRY THRU WED DAYTIME. BEST CHC SEEMS
TO BE ABOUT TUE NGT AS INSTBLTY INCREASES. IN FACT...INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTLTY MENTND ERY THIS MRNG BY SPC IN INCLUDING THIS
AREA IN DAYS 5/6 SVR OUTLLOK SEEMS TO BE BECOMING A FAIRLY SURE BET.
SO...EVEN WITH CONTD TIMING AND CVRG DIFFICULTIES...THE MOISTURE AND
INSTBLTY INCREASES MAKE TSTM MENTN APPROPRIATE FROM WED NGT ON.
MODELS CONT TO OSCILLATE ON TIMING OF FEATURES BOTH SFC AND ALF.
WHILE DRIER AIR CUD FILTER INTO FSCT AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...FNTL
BOUNDRY CUD ALSO STAGNATE A LTL S OF AREA AND PROVIDE A FVRBL TSTM
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS WHICH WILL WARM TO DECENT MIDSUMMER NORMALS OR A
TAD WARMER BY MIDWEEK SHUD SLIP BACK A LTL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
/WILLIAMS

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 042110
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
315 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND EASTERN WYOMING. STRATUS THAT EXISTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING HAS DEVELOPED INTO CU WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MU CAPE IS AROUND 1000J/KG OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND HAVE NOW
MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO FAR THE CAP HAS HELD OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...BUT MAY STILL SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BREAK
THE CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.

ON SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL CAUSE
THE UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT INTO MT/ND/NORTHWEST SD...FOCUSING TSRA
ACTIVITY. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FORESEEN. SHEAR AGAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING.

MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND THERMAL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE CWA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE/LL BE CAPPED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F OVER MANY LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A NEAR DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KFSD 042018
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE BASED THIS AFTN...BUT INSTABILITY
RATHER WEAK AND SEEMS TO GET SOMEWHAT CAPPED OFF IN THE MID LVLS...
BUT WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA MAINLY NERN HLF CWA UNTIL EARLY
EVE. CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY BREAK UP FM NW TO SE IN CWA THRU EARLY
EVE AS NLY FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN FM NORTH.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STAY RATHER MOIST WITH RECENT RAINS
AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT.
SO PUT IN PATCHY FOG LATE ESP WRN TO SRN CWA...WHERE BEST DECOUPLING
TAKES PLACE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME MORE WDSPRD FOG IF
CONDITIONS ARE MORE OPTIMUM. /RYRHOLM

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH NO MENTN OF FOG FOR SUN MRNG...BUT IF FOG BCMS
WDSPRD AS MENTND ABV...WE WILL HAVE TO ADD MRNG MENTN. OTRW EXPECT A
FAIRLY SUNNY DAY SUN WITH SOME CUD MAINLY ERN CWA. WK WV SHOWN BY
NAM YSTDY AT THIS TIME FOR LATE SUN LOOKS EVEN WEAKER TDA AND OTHER
MODELS HAVE LTL OR NOTHING...SO WILL CUT SLGT MENTN OF TSTMS NERN
FCST AREA FOR LATE SUN. WITH THE SUN TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY 80-85...OR PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDNCE.

WE HAVE THE SAME PRBLM WITH A CPL PF VERY WEAK WVS COMING ACRS FOR
MON AND AGN BY LATE TUE...BUT NOT MUCH OTHER SUPPORT AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL KEEP FCST MENTN DRY THRU WED DAYTIME. BEST CHC SEEMS
TO BE ABOUT TUE NGT AS INSTBLTY INCREASES. IN FACT...INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTLTY MENTND ERY THIS MRNG BY SPC IN INCLUDING THIS
AREA IN DAYS 5/6 SVR OUTLLOK SEEMS TO BE BECOMING A FAIRLY SURE BET.
SO...EVEN WITH CONTD TIMING AND CVRG DIFFICULTIES...THE MOISTURE AND
INSTBLTY INCREASES MAKE TSTM MENTN APPROPRIATE FROM WED NGT ON.
MODELS CONT TO OSCILLATE ON TIMING OF FEATURES BOTH SFC AND ALF.
WHILE DRIER AIR CUD FILTER INTO FSCT AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...FNTL
BOUNDRY CUD ALSO STAGNATE A LTL S OF AREA AND PROVIDE A FVRBL TSTM
ENVIRONMENT. TEMPS WHICH WILL WARM TO DECENT MIDSUMMER NORMALS OR A
TAD WARMER BY MIDWEEK SHUD SLIP BACK A LTL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN MVFR CIGS SE OF LN FM SPW TO YKN SHOULD BREAK UP TO VFR BY 23Z.
AREAS OF GROUND FOG SHOULD DVLP AFT 08Z...MAINLY FM SERN SD TO NWRN
IA WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS PSBL THRU 13Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$
WILLIAMS

000
FXUS63 KABR 042010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE
WESTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BUT LIS FALL INTO THE -2 TO -4
RANGE AND CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING LOW PRESSURE FURTHER EAST AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...WHILE THE NAM HAS A MORE
WESTERLY SOLUTION...THEREBY KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA. BIGGEST ISSUES LOOK TO BE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
A LACK OF MOISTURE. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. H7
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE +10 TO +12 DEGREE RANGE BY MONDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CAP. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED AT
THIS TIME TO LEAVE THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...THEN WILL SEE
DECENT WAA BEGIN TO DEVELOP. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S BY MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES A GOOD
CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA DAYS
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FROPA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
SWEEP THROUGH THIS CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON THURSDAY. SO...CONTINUED THE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. ALONG WITH WAA...PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PUMPED UP INTO THE CWA...WHICH REALLY PUTS A
PREMIUM ON INSTABILITY/CAPE VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY /AND ALSO
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES/. SO...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP FOR TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME...AND THEN KEPT SOME POPS MENTION IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. ON THURSDAY...POPS ARE RELEGATED TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT
GO UP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA IN THE MOISTURE-RICH AIR IN
PLACE. POPS/WX MENTION WERE THEN TURNED OFF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING THOSE FORECAST PERIODS DRY ONES...WITH
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA ENSUING BEHIND THE FROPA
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING THROUGH THE REGION. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALSO BECOME SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS AS A RESULT...COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. BY
SATURDAY /DAY 7/...RETURN FLOW IS AFFECTING THIS CWA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL POP
MENTION FOR SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SO FAR...THE KATY TERMINAL HAS BEEN THE ONLY
TERMINAL TO BE THREATENED BY A SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM. WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 HOURS /ENDING AT 00Z/...THE KMBG AND KATY TERMINALS
APPEAR TO STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OVER TERMINAL
AIRSPACE. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND LOSS OF NECESSARY DAYTIME HEATING.

ASIDE FROM POOR FLYING CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT GOOD VFR FLYING WEATHER TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS
A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND A CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP TONIGHT AMID AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF FOG IN THE TAFS TO THIS FORECAST
DISCUSSION AND MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 041700
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1058 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...REMAINING LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD MIX INTO A CU DECK DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CAP WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR NEW CONVECTION BY
18Z...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WAVE...AND NEAREST SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ALLOWING UPPER
RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
INTO MT/ND/NORTHWEST SD...FOCUSING TSRA ACTIVITY. SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FORESEEN. SHEAR AGAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW DEVELOPS NEAR OR WITH UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE/LL BE CAPPED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F OVER MANY LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE UP A POSITION OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE GFS
SHOWS A MORE ZONAL/ACTIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF REDEVELOPS A WRN
U.S. RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE REINTRODUCES A SLGT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS THU NIGHT WHICH IS A PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR...WITH LOCALIZED IFR...CONDS CONTINUE
FROM THE BLKHLS EWD AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.   CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN WRN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
ASSCD SFC TROUGH MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING...AND OVER AND NEAR THE BLACKH HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

HELGESON/CARPENTER

000
FXUS63 KABR 041617 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1117 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. DID BEGIN SCHC
POPS A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A COUPLE
OF ECHOS ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER THE EASTERN CWA. NOT A
LOT OF INSTABILITY AROUND...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO
OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES. NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z
TO 15Z. LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAIN. ALTHOUGH...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL EROSION THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CAPE VALES FROM AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG COULD SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT
FURTHER EAST TO COVER MOST OF THE CWA. RATHER ILL DEFINED PATTERN
WITH NO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES OR SFC BOUNDARIES...BUT WE SEEM TO BE
IN ONE OF THESE PATTERNS WHERE WE CAN IGNITE SOMETHING WITH
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. MODELS TRY TO LINGER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BUT FEEL THIS MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ANYTHING DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. ON SUNDAY WARMER AIR ALOFT
BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION SO HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 80S. WILL GO WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG IN SOME PLACES...AND LITTLE TO
NO CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FOR MONDAY AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT EVERYONE TO BE WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH READINGS NEAR 90 ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM SOLUTION FROM THE 00Z MODELS REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR. A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF THE WEST COAST MID LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. AND IN THE PROCESS WILL PUSH A SFC BOUNDARY/COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BECOME ACTIVE AT THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
ABR CWA WHERE CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. OVER THE ABR CWA
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CINH...EVEN AROUND
MAX HEATING...SO CONVECTION CHANCES ARE LESS CERTAIN. SO...FOR NOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE WITH THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES LOOKED OKAY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT DID EDGE THEM UP
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF ADVANCING BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS/VISBIES HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VFR
VISBIES. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALREADY INTRODUCED ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THAT SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP APPX 25NM NORTH OF THE KATY
TERMINAL...HEADING SLOWLY SOUTH.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THESE LOWER-BASED MVFR MIXING CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL...AND A
LITTLE BIT MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED. LOOK FOR GOOD VFR ACROSS ALL FOUR TERMINALS BY 19Z THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR IN AND AROUND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 041422
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
920 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
BAND OF TROPICAL LIKE SMALL DROPSIZE RAIN MOVG SLOWLY SEWD FM SERN
SD TO SWRN MN ATTM...TOWARDS NWRN IA...BUT APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...SO EARLIER CUT BACK SWD EXTENT OF RAIN
IN GRIDS. GRADUAL BREAKUP OF CLOUDS NOW STARTING IN NWRN CWA WITH
DRIER AIR INTRUDING FROM NORTH BEHIND MAIN SHORT WAVE...WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE SEWD OVER CWA FM LATE MRNG THRU MID AFTN. THERE
IS SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR FURTHER WDLY SCT SHRA DVLPG
THIS AFTN WITH ANY HEATING ESP NERN HLF OF CWA...SO KEPT IN FCST.
PREV FCST HIGHS OK FOR NOW BUT ANY DELAYED BREAKUP OF LWR CLOUDS
MAY PUT A FURTHER DAMPER ON HIGHS IN SERN HLF CWA. WILL PROBABLY
DO A COSMETIC UPDATE TO ZFP AS MRNG PRECIP WANES. DID AN UPDATE
TO FLS FOR JAMES RIVER DUE TO HIGHER STAGES DUE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
RAINFALL IN VCNTY OF MHE LAST 24 HRS.

RYRHOLM

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER IN MOST OF AREA SE OF LN FM MML TO MDS TO
MHE...WITH IMPROVMENT TO VFR EXPCD MOST AREAS BY 21Z. PATCHY IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS IN STRATUS...SCT -SHRA...AND BR IN THIS SAME AREA
THRU 18Z OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MESSY PATTERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.  MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EAST...BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LINGERS
THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT THE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME
QUESTION REMAIN ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE
WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING. LAPSE RATES FROM 850-700 MB
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DIE AWAY PRIOR TO DUSK ALLOWING AREA FIREWORK DISPLAYS TO GO ON AS
SCHEDULED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 925
HPA MIX OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST. FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...WENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIX
OUT READINGS BUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST MAY
KEEP READINGS COOLER THAN THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO.

AS HUDSON BAY LOW ATTEMPTS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE ON
SUNDAY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-700 MB. FAR FROM
ANYTHING GRAND TO WRITE HOME ABOUT IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS...BUT
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS THE STRONGEST. APPEARS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK WARMFRONT THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.  COULD SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SHIFTED FOCUS OF THE
POPS FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHERE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. MODELS AGREEMENT IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN
TERMS OF DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING
MONDAY...MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE.  SHEAR
PROFILES NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MAY BE ABLE TO GET A FEW
STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  BETTER THREAT APPEARS TO
BE WIND POTENTIAL WITH INVERTED V TYPE PROFILES.

AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE INCREASES WITH INDIRECT CONNECTION TO GULF OF
MEXICO. ADDED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS GFS AND TO
SOME DEGREE THE CANADIAN SUGGEST STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER...MORE HUMID SET UP. /BT

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 040856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
356 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN THIS AREA FROM 12Z
TO 15Z. LARGE EXPANSE OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT RAIN. ALTHOUGH...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL EROSION THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CAPE VALES FROM AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG COULD SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT
FURTHER EAST TO COVER MOST OF THE CWA. RATHER ILL DEFINED PATTERN
WITH NO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES OR SFC BOUNDARIES...BUT WE SEEM TO BE
IN ONE OF THESE PATTERNS WHERE WE CAN IGNITE SOMETHING WITH
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. MODELS TRY TO LINGER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BUT FEEL THIS MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE DUE TO THE FACT THAT ANYTHING DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. ON SUNDAY WARMER AIR ALOFT
BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION SO HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 80S. WILL GO WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG IN SOME PLACES...AND LITTLE TO
NO CAP IN PLACE. WILL SEE TEMPS WARM A BIT MORE FOR MONDAY AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT PUSHES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT EVERYONE TO BE WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH READINGS NEAR 90 ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM SOLUTION FROM THE 00Z MODELS REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR. A
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF THE WEST COAST MID LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. AND IN THE PROCESS WILL PUSH A SFC BOUNDARY/COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE CWA LATE WED INTO THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BECOME ACTIVE AT THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
ABR CWA WHERE CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. OVER THE ABR CWA
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CINH...EVEN AROUND
MAX HEATING...SO CONVECTION CHANCES ARE LESS CERTAIN. SO...FOR NOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE WITH THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES LOOKED OKAY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT DID EDGE THEM UP
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF ADVANCING BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING...AFTER
THAT MOSTLY VFR CIGS OR NO CIGS AT ALL WILL PREVAIL. MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FOG...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE VFR WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 040852
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
348 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MESSY PATTERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.  MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EAST...BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LINGERS
THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS OVER
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT THE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME
QUESTION REMAIN ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE
WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING. LAPSE RATES FROM 850-700 MB
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DIE AWAY PRIOR TO DUSK ALLOWING AREA FIREWORK DISPLAYS TO GO ON AS
SCHEDULED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 925
HPA MIX OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST. FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...WENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIX
OUT READINGS BUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST MAY
KEEP READINGS COOLER THAN THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO.

AS HUDSON BAY LOW ATTEMPTS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH.  ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE ON
SUNDAY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 800-700 MB. FAR FROM
ANYTHING GRAND TO WRITE HOME ABOUT IN TERMS OF DYNAMICS...BUT
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS THE STRONGEST. APPEARS AS
THOUGH THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK WARMFRONT THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.  COULD SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SHIFTED FOCUS OF THE
POPS FURTHER EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHERE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. MODELS AGREEMENT IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW IN
TERMS OF DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING
MONDAY...MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE.  SHEAR
PROFILES NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MAY BE ABLE TO GET A FEW
STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  BETTER THREAT APPEARS TO
BE WIND POTENTIAL WITH INVERTED V TYPE PROFILES.

AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE INCREASES WITH INDIRECT CONNECTION TO GULF OF
MEXICO. ADDED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS GFS AND TO
SOME DEGREE THE CANADIAN SUGGEST STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER...MORE HUMID SET UP. /BT

&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA CONTS TO MOV SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING...
PRODUCING A POT POURRI OF VARIOUS CATEGORIES. CONDS RANGE ANYWHERE
FM VFR TO LIFR...WITH NO DISCERNABLE PATTERN TO THEIR TENDENCIES.
IN GENERAL...MODEL LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR WL FIRST BEGIN ADVECTING INTO SW MN IN THE EARLY AND
MID MORNING HRS FM THE EAST AND NE...LIKELY GIVING THAT AREA
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
WL THEN CONT TO MOV WWD AND SWWD IN THE LATE MORNING...GIVING MANY
AREAS ALONG AND N OF I 90 VFR BY MIDDAY. THE AREA WHERE STUBBORN
MVFR TO IFR CONDS MAY HANG ON IS APPROXIMATELY FROM GREGORY COUNTY
SD...SEWD TO NEAR STORM LAKE IA. THESE LOWERED CONDS WL GRADUALLY
ERODE THRU THE AFTN HRS FM THE NORTH AND NE...STRONGLY SUGGESTING IT
WL TAKE A WHILE FOR VFR TO RETURN TO THOSE AREAS. SOME INSTABILITY
SHRA MAY AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN WITH VFR CONDS...EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR/IFR
LINGERING THIS AFTN IN THE SRN PART OF OUR FA.   /MJF


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

BT/MJF

000
FXUS63 KUNR 040845
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NE WITH
BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST CO AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL MT. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MT
INTO ND...HELPING SOME CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST MT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SINK INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT -SHRA NOTED
OVER THE CWA. T/TD SPREADS CLOSE AND WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. FG/ST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX INTO A CU DECK
WITH CAP WEAKENING ENOUGH FOR NEW CONVECTION BY 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE...AND
NEAREST SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING ANYWHERE.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ALLOWING UPPER
RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
INTO MT/ND/NORTHWEST SD...FOCUSING TSRA ACTIVITY. SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FORESEEN. SHEAR AGAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING.

MONDAY...UPPER LOW DEVELOPS NEAR OR WITH UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE/LL BE CAPPED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90F OVER MANY LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE UP A POSITION OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE GFS
SHOWS A MORE ZONAL/ACTIVE PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF REDEVELOPS A WRN
U.S. RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE REINTRODUCES A SLGT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS THU NIGHT WHICH IS A PRETTY GOOD COMPROMISE
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS CONTINUE FROM THE BLKHLS EWD AND
NORTH INTO ERN MT.  WEST OF THE BLKHLS IN NERN WYOMING SKIES HAVE
CLEARED BUT THERE IS A THREAT OF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM ERN MT LATER THIS MORNING.  CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID DAY IN WRN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSCD SFC TROUGH MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

HELGESON/CARPENTER

000
FXUS63 KFSD 040148
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
848 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY DISTINCT MID LVL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH BROAD FLAT RIDGE IN
UPR LVLS...TIED TO WK IMPULSES MOVING THRU NRN TIER WLYS...THE MOST
RELAVENT IN SWRN ND.  SHOWERS COVERING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DOSE OF
REAL ESTATE THIS EVENING...WITH LEAST COVERAGE NOTED THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. MAIN PCPN SHIELD TO NORTH ALONG THE MAIN UPR DIV Q
REGION AND ALG MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC REGION...WHILE THE SYNOPTIC LOW
LVL WARM FRONT REMAINS ACTIVE WELL TO THE SOUTH BTWN I80 AND I70.
CLASSIC BETTER AIRMASS S AND W AND BETTER DYNAMICS N AND E...AND
THUS CHALLENGE WL BE TO DEFINE BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP
FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

LIFT SHUD CONTINUE THRU EVNG AHEAD OF MID LVL WAVE...TAILING OFF
SLOWLY 06Z-12Z FROM NW TO SE. EVENTUALLY LTR EVNG...LLJ DOES
INCREASE AND WITH A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN
PLACE...WNW TO ESE BNDRY DOWN WHICH MID LVL CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO
SLIDE WL FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAINLY THRU NERN 2/3 OF CWA.
FARTHER SWRD...WL RELY MUCH MORE ON EXISTING CONVECTION ACRS WRN SD
TO ADVECT ESE. NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY PRESENT
OVR THE AREA WITH MEAGER AT BEST ON KABR/KUNR 00Z SOUNDINGS...BUT A
DECENT 700-600 LAPSE RATE FOR NEBRASKA RAOBS. WL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION MINIMAL ACRS AREA THRU REMAINDER OF NIGHT...WITH EXPECTIONS
OF MO VLY AS ONLY VIABLE REGION TO TAP THE MID LVL INSTABILITY.
SOME ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE IN THE
BALLPARK ON THE ENDPOINT.  /CHAPMAN

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE VFR
VISIBILITIES WILL PREDOMINATE...COULD SEE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN A
HEAVIER SHOWER OR LIGHT FOG. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
BEFORE 09Z...THEN DIMINISHING ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 12Z
ON SATURDAY.    /JM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING INTO WESTERN
SD AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH THIS
WAVE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERE AS IT HITS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY VERY MARGINAL SO
ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD STAY IN NEBRASKA...BUT SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
AND A WEAK SFC-925MB BOUNDARY AROUND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO JUST SOUTH
OF SUX AND SLB. THE ONLY THING REALLY LACKING IS THE INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...RAISED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO MAINLY THE 60S WITH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LOCK IN WITH AN EASTERLY WIND.  /08

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCD MOISTURE...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LVLS...WILL BE
SLOW TO PULL OUT SAT. EXPECT SOME RAIN...MAINLY LGT...TO LINGER OVER
SERN HALF OF FCST AREA SAT MRNG AND OVER EXTRM SERN CRNR THRU MOST
OF SAT. RAIN WILL BE LGT AND PRBLY SPOTTY...SO POPS WILL BE 40 PCT
OR SO. IN FACT REALISICALLY SOME OF THE LINGERING LGT PCPN WILL
PRBLY BE DRZL OUT OF THE LINGERING ST BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST SIMPLE
WITH JUST LGT RAIN...PCPN FINE ENUF TO BE DRZL CAN STILL BE
MINIMALLY MEASRBL. ANYWAY...IN ACCORD WITH THIS SLOWER MOISTURE
PULLOUT...SIGNIFICANT DECRG CLDS WILL PRBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR WRN
AND NRN CWA SAT AND THAT IN THE AFTN. TEMPS SHUD HOLD IN THE 70S DUE
TO THE CLDS AND LINGERING RAIN...PSBLY ONLY LWR 70S SERN FCST AREA.

CLRNG SHUD SPREAD OVER MORE OF FCST AREA SAT NGT AND LINGERING LGT
PCPN SHUD FINALLY BE GONE...SO SAT EVE HOLIDAY PARTIES SHUD DO OK.
THE CLEARING SKIES AND LGT WINDS WITH LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE MAY
SET UP A DECENT FOG SCENARIO FOR LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG. AFTER
CONSULTING WITH NEIGHBORS...AGREE THAT THIS FVRBL FOG SCENARIO IS
FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

SUN AND MON SHUD BE MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND...ACTUALLY A BETTER JUMP FOR SUN DUE TO SUNSHINE VERSUS SAT
CLDS. MODELS ESPLY NAM HINT AT A WEAK WV AND SFC TROF PLUS INSTBLTY
SETTING OFF A FEW TSTMS MAINLY NERN CRNR OF FCST AREA. UNCETAINTY
AND WEAKNESS OF SYS WILL KEEP MENTN OUT OF FCST FOR NOW BUT POPS
WILL BE IN THE HIER RANGE OF THE NO MENTION ZONE.

TUE THRU FRI SHUD GET INTO A MORE SUMMERTIME WARMTH PATTERN...DRY
AND CAPPED AT FIRST BUT WITH INCRG CHC OF TSTMS AS FRONT APPCHS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDNCE SEEMS REASNBL. NEW ECMWF
BRINGS FNT THRU FASTER THU AND THIS CUD BRING SOME DRYING AND
COOLING BY FRI BUT WILL GO WITH THE ERYR MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER...FOR NOW.    /WILLIAMS

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 040143
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
843 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO UP PROBABILITIES OF RAIN THIS EVENING.
AREA IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN SIZE BUT MUCH OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO GET STEADY RAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. HAVE SOME
CONCERNS FOR THEM COOLING FASTER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO RAIN COOLING
BUT THE INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD OFF SET THIS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS. REST OF THE PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER RESOLUTION WRF HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION...WITH TWO DEFINED AREAS OF
RAIN. THE FIRST IS A REMNANT OF THIS MORNINGS BAROCLINIC/UPGLIDE
FORCING AND REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OUT
OF WYOMING...IS GENERATING THE BULK OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY CONVERGE...PRODUCING THE BULK OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z BEFORE BEST DYNAMICS BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
CWA. DESPITE NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SO DRY/COOL AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
ADVECT IN AND CLEAR US OUT. THUS...HAVE RAISED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...A FEW AREAS MAY
SEE MINOR DEGRADATION TO VISIBILITY...CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION INTO TOMORROW/SUNDAY...COULD SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND CLIMO OUTSIDE OF
TONIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A LOW SPINNING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSHES OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
GETTING DAMPENED SOUTHWARD SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW STRENGTHENS AND DIGS PART WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST.
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK UP A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE EAST WEST ORIENTED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. THE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS FROM
NORTHERN IDAHO TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH THE WARM FRONT
PUSHING NORTH AND THE COLD FRONT REACHING WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW WEAKENS AND BROADENS OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY...THEN THE WESTERN PORTION
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND TRACKS TO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
PRETTY STRONG CAP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO BE BETTER NORTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE A CAP. BROAD
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN DROPS
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN
WENT WITH SMALL POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY STORMS THAT MAY BREAK THE CAP UNDER HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS EVENING TO MVFR AT KABR KATY AND
KMBG. KPIR IS ALREADY IFR DUE TO CEILING AND WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BRIEFLY BEFORE SETTLING LOWER FOR THE NIGHT. TOMORROW WILL
SEE A RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...KEEFE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...KEEFE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 032100
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING AND INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. PERSISTANT CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE HAVE INCREASED THE INSTABILITY AND ALLOWED SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED OVER THOSE AREAS THIS AFTN WITH SFC CAPE INCREASING TO
AROUND 1500J/KG.

TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. AN
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS IN THE FAR WEST...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN
OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SFC WIND HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A FEW PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST AND SHIFTS INTO
THE PLAINS. SEVERAL WAVES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR TSRA. HIGHS WILL
BE ON THE UPSWING AS THERMAL RIDGE ENVELOPS THE REGION.

EXTENDED...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A
QUIETER PATTERN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTH BLACK HILLS. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PRECIPITATION...AND VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 032036
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER RESOLUTION WRF HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION...WITH TWO DEFINED AREAS OF
RAIN. THE FIRST IS A REMNANT OF THIS MORNINGS BAROCLINIC/UPGLIDE
FORCING AND REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OUT
OF WYOMING...IS GENERATING THE BULK OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY CONVERGE...PRODUCING THE BULK OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
BETWEEN 21 AND 03Z BEFORE BEST DYNAMICS BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
CWA. DESPITE NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SO DRY/COOL AIR WILL BE SLOW TO
ADVECT IN AND CLEAR US OUT. THUS...HAVE RAISED LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...A FEW AREAS MAY
SEE MINOR DEGRADATION TO VISIBILITY...CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/INTENSITY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION INTO TOMORROW/SUNDAY...COULD SEE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND CLIMO OUTSIDE OF
TONIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND A LOW SPINNING OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSHES OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE
GETTING DAMPENED SOUTHWARD SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW STRENGTHENS AND DIGS PART WAY DOWN THE WEST COAST.
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK UP A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE EAST WEST ORIENTED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. THE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS FROM
NORTHERN IDAHO TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH THE WARM FRONT
PUSHING NORTH AND THE COLD FRONT REACHING WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE LOW WEAKENS AND BROADENS OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY...THEN THE WESTERN PORTION
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND TRACKS TO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
PRETTY STRONG CAP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO BE BETTER NORTH WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE A CAP. BROAD
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN DROPS
SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN
WENT WITH SMALL POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY STORMS THAT MAY BREAK THE CAP UNDER HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CIGS AOA 6K FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 032014
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING INTO WESTERN
SD AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH THIS
WAVE. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERE AS IT HITS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY VERY MARGINAL SO
ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD STAY IN NEBRASKA...BUT SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
AND A WEAK SFC-925MB BOUNDARY AROUND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO JUST SOUTH
OF SUX AND SLB. THE ONLY THING REALLY LACKING IS THE INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...RAISED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO MAINLY THE 60S WITH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LOCK IN WITH AN EASTERLY WIND.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCD MOISTURE...BOTH AT LOW AND MID LVLS...WILL BE
SLOW TO PULL OUT SAT. EXPECT SOME RAIN...MAINLY LGT...TO LINGER OVER
SERN HALF OF FCST AREA SAT MRNG AND OVER EXTRM SERN CRNR THRU MOST
OF SAT. RAIN WILL BE LGT AND PRBLY SPOTTY...SO POPS WILL BE 40 PCT
OR SO. IN FACT REALISICALLY SOME OF THE LINGERING LGT PCPN WILL
PRBLY BE DRZL OUT OF THE LINGERING ST BUT WILL KEEP THE FCST SIMPLE
WITH JUST LGT RAIN...PCPN FINE ENUF TO BE DRZL CAN STILL BE
MINIMALLY MEASRBL. ANYWAY...IN ACCORD WITH THIS SLOWER MOISTURE
PULLOUT...SIGNIFICANT DECRG CLDS WILL PRBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR WRN
AND NRN CWA SAT AND THAT IN THE AFTN. TEMPS SHUD HOLD IN THE 70S DUE
TO THE CLDS AND LINGERING RAIN...PSBLY ONLY LWR 70S SERN FCST AREA.

CLRNG SHUD SPREAD OVER MORE OF FCST AREA SAT NGT AND LINGERING LGT
PCPN SHUD FINALLY BE GONE...SO SAT EVE HOLIDAY PARTIES SHUD DO OK.
THE CLEARING SKIES AND LGT WINDS WITH LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE MAY
SET UP A DECENT FOG SCENARIO FOR LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG. AFTER
CONSULTING WITH NEIGHBORS...AGREE THAT THIS FVRBL FOG SCENARIO IS
FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

SUN AND MON SHUD BE MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND...ACTUALLY A BETTER JUMP FOR SUN DUE TO SUNSHINE VERSUS SAT
CLDS. MODELS ESPLY NAM HINT AT A WEAK WV AND SFC TROF PLUS INSTBLTY
SETTING OFF A FEW TSTMS MAINLY NERN CRNR OF FCST AREA. UNCETAINTY
AND WEAKNESS OF SYS WILL KEEP MENTN OUT OF FCST FOR NOW BUT POPS
WILL BE IN THE HIER RANGE OF THE NO MENTION ZONE.

TUE THRU FRI SHUD GET INTO A MORE SUMMERTIME WARMTH PATTERN...DRY
AND CAPPED AT FIRST BUT WITH INCRG CHC OF TSTMS AS FRONT APPCHS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDNCE SEEMS REASNBL. NEW ECMWF
BRINGS FNT THRU FASTER THU AND THIS CUD BRING SOME DRYING AND
COOLING BY FRI BUT WILL GO WITH THE ERYR MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER...FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...AND ESPECIALLY THE
NAM...SUGGEST LOW END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING
AND HANGING IN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SEE NO REAL REASON TO ARGUE
WITH THIS GIVEN UPSTREAM CEILINGS...EXPECTED WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND
POTENTIALLY COOL/MOIST OUTFLOW FROM RAIN ADVECTING EAST. SO...WILL
KEEP THINGS SOCKED IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. VISIBILITIES SHOULD MAINLY
BE VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LIGHT FOG.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$
08/WILLIAMS