[top]
000
FXUS64 KMRX 060139
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
939 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA...AS FRONTS
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS FOR
TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES NEARER THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOHX 060032
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
732 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STORMS HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN AT 725 PM. CONVECTION HAS DISRUPTED FIELD BUT BEST GUESS IS
THAT SURFACE FRONT IS LAYING ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN NEAR KY
BORDER AT THIS TIME. NOTICED BOWLING GREENS DEWPOINT AT 00Z AT 68
DEGS WHILE NASHVILLE`S IS STILL A MUGGY 74. BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP CHANCES DWINDLING ACROSS THE
NORTH.
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST MIDDLE
TN FROM COFFEE...SOUTHERN WARREN DOWN INTO GRUNDY BUT STORMS ARE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH AND DONT SEE THEM TRAINING AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL KEEP TABS ON IT.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
KOHX DOPPLER TOOK A LIGHTNING HIT ABOUT 436 PM CDT. USING KHTX PRIMARILY
ALONG WITH KHPX AT THIS TIME. FREE TEXT MESSAGE WAS SENT ABOUT OUTAGE.
STORMS LINED UP PRETTY MUCH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AT 5 PM CDT. THEY
SHOULDNT LAST LONG IN ANY ONE PLACE SO EVEN WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS THINK
FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE MAINLY PONDING OF WATER BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR CELL TRAINING ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS OF MID STATE.
PROBLEMS IN WAYNE COUNTY APPEAR TO BE ENDING FOR THE TIME BEING BUT
MORE STORMS ARE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF WAYNE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
WAYNE COUNTY SHORTLY. KHTX DOPPLER SHOWING SOME 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY NEAR THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 13 AND 228.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HYDROGRAPH SHOWING 3 SPIKES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN NORTHERN WAYNE
CO LAST HOUR. HAVE ISSUED FFW FOR NORTHERN WAYNE CO UNTIL 545 PM
CDT SINCE THESE WELL EXCEED GUIDANCE VALUES.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CELL MERGERS OVER NORTHERN WAYNE CO AT 2110Z. FLOOD ADVISORY IN
EFFECT BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE SHORTLY TO FFW.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR HOUSTON COUNTY MOVING SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST DRAGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEHIND IT THAT EXTENDS TO THE
SW ACROSS ARKANSAS. LAPS OUTPUT INDICATES A GOOD 3000+ CAPE CENTER
NEAR THE LOW CENTER THAT HAS STRENGTHENED SLOWLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THINK THAT CLDNS OVERHEAD HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BE ABLE TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS AND SPIT OUT A GUST TO 60 MPH OR SO. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON HEATING WEAR
OFF THIS EVENING.
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK ESE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...TAKING MOST OF THE MIDSTATE OUT OF THE RAIN
PICTURE BY LATE TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. OF COURSE...THE BAD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN HIGHS BY FRI IN THE MID
90S.
END OF THE WEEK INDICATES THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH ALONG OR NEAR EACH COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF AFTN THUNDER EACH DAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMRX 060005
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS A FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT RAIN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 18Z. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMEG 060002 CCA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
701 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NASHVILLE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS NORTH OF I-40. REGIONAL WSR-
88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NAM/GFS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT LEANED FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS AS THE 12Z NAM MAY BE EXHIBITING SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. NONETHELESS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS PREDOMINANTLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAIN QUITE WEAK.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY
RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE MID
SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETROGRADE WEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH KMKL AND WAS RIGHT AT KMEM AT
DISCUSSION TIME. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED IN COVERAGE ALONG
THE LINE AND WILL LIKELY PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF KMEM. AIRMASS
OVER KTUP WAS SUFFICIENTLY STABLE TO LIKELY KEEP STRONG TSRA FROM
AFFECTING THE KTUP TERMINAL.
18Z GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/NAM MODELS WERE CONSIDERABLY LESS
PESSIMISTIC REGARDING IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. GIVEN THIS...AND THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE OCCURRENCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN JULY...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT PERIODS
TO MVFR EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF IFR CIG AT KTUP TOWARD 14Z.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 88 69 91 / 40 20 10 10
MKL 67 86 65 90 / 20 20 10 10
JBR 66 87 65 90 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 71 87 69 91 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 060001 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
701 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NASHVILLE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS NORTH OF I-40. REGIONAL WSR-
88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NAM/GFS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT LEANED FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS AS THE 12Z NAM MAY BE EXHIBITING SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. NONETHELESS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS PREDOMINANTLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAIN QUITE WEAK.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY
RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE MID
SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETROGRADE WEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH KMKL AND WAS RIGHT AT KMEM AT
DISCUSSION TIME. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED IN COVERAGE ALONG
THE LINE AND WILL LIKELY PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF KMEM. AIRMASS
OVER KTUP WAS SUFFICIENTLY STABLE TO LIKELY KEEP STRONG TSRA FROM
AFFECTING THE KTUP TERMINAL.
18Z GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/NAM MODELS WERE CONSIDERABLY LESS
PESSIMISTIC REGARDING IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. GIVEN THIS...AND THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE OCCURRENCES OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN JULY...HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP UP OVERNIGHT PERIODS
TO MVFR EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT KTUP TOWARD 14Z.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 88 69 91 / 40 20 10 10
MKL 67 86 65 90 / 20 20 10 10
JBR 66 87 65 90 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 71 87 69 91 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 052211
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
KOHX DOPPLER TOOK A LIGHTNING HIT ABOUT 436 PM CDT. USING KHTX PRIMARILY
ALONG WITH KHPX AT THIS TIME. FREE TEXT MESSAGE WAS SENT ABOUT OUTAGE.
STORMS LINED UP PRETTY MUCH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AT 5 PM CDT. THEY
SHOULDNT LAST LONG IN ANY ONE PLACE SO EVEN WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS THINK
FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE MAINLY PONDING OF WATER BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR CELL TRAINING ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS OF MID STATE.
PROBLEMS IN WAYNE COUNTY APPEAR TO BE ENDING FOR THE TIME BEING BUT
MORE STORMS ARE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF WAYNE AND WILL DROP DOWN INTO
WAYNE COUNTY SHORTLY. KHTX DOPPLER SHOWING SOME 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY NEAR THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 13 AND 228.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HYDROGRAPH SHOWING 3 SPIKES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN NORTHERN WAYNE
CO LAST HOUR. HAVE ISSUED FFW FOR NORTHERN WAYNE CO UNTIL 545 PM
CDT SINCE THESE WELL EXCEED GUIDANCE VALUES.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CELL MERGERS OVER NORTHERN WAYNE CO AT 2110Z. FLOOD ADVISORY IN
EFFECT BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE SHORTLY TO FFW.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR HOUSTON COUNTY MOVING SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST DRAGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEHIND IT THAT EXTENDS TO THE
SW ACROSS ARKANSAS. LAPS OUTPUT INDICATES A GOOD 3000+ CAPE CENTER
NEAR THE LOW CENTER THAT HAS STRENGTHENED SLOWLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THINK THAT CLDNS OVERHEAD HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BE ABLE TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS AND SPIT OUT A GUST TO 60 MPH OR SO. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON HEATING WEAR
OFF THIS EVENING.
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK ESE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...TAKING MOST OF THE MIDSTATE OUT OF THE RAIN
PICTURE BY LATE TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. OF COURSE...THE BAD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN HIGHS BY FRI IN THE MID
90S.
END OF THE WEEK INDICATES THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH ALONG OR NEAR EACH COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF AFTN THUNDER EACH DAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
000
FXUS64 KOHX 052120
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
420 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HYDROGRAPH SHOWING 3 SPIKES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IN NORTHERN WAYNE
CO LAST HOUR. HAVE ISSUED FFW FOR NORTHERN WAYNE CO UNTIL 545 PM
CDT SINCE THESE WELL EXCEED GUIDANCE VALUES.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CELL MERGERS OVER NORTHERN WAYNE CO AT 2110Z. FLOOD ADVISORY IN
EFFECT BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE SHORTLY TO FFW.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR HOUSTON COUNTY MOVING SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST DRAGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEHIND IT THAT EXTENDS TO THE
SW ACROSS ARKANSAS. LAPS OUTPUT INDICATES A GOOD 3000+ CAPE CENTER
NEAR THE LOW CENTER THAT HAS STRENGTHENED SLOWLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THINK THAT CLDNS OVERHEAD HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BE ABLE TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS AND SPIT OUT A GUST TO 60 MPH OR SO. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON HEATING WEAR
OFF THIS EVENING.
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK ESE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...TAKING MOST OF THE MIDSTATE OUT OF THE RAIN
PICTURE BY LATE TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. OF COURSE...THE BAD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN HIGHS BY FRI IN THE MID
90S.
END OF THE WEEK INDICATES THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH ALONG OR NEAR EACH COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF AFTN THUNDER EACH DAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 052111
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
411 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CELL MERGERS OVER NORTHERN WAYNE CO AT 2110Z. FLOOD ADVISORY IN
EFFECT BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE SHORTLY TO FFW.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR HOUSTON COUNTY MOVING SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST DRAGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEHIND IT THAT EXTENDS TO THE
SW ACROSS ARKANSAS. LAPS OUTPUT INDICATES A GOOD 3000+ CAPE CENTER
NEAR THE LOW CENTER THAT HAS STRENGTHENED SLOWLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THINK THAT CLDNS OVERHEAD HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BE ABLE TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS AND SPIT OUT A GUST TO 60 MPH OR SO. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON HEATING WEAR
OFF THIS EVENING.
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK ESE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...TAKING MOST OF THE MIDSTATE OUT OF THE RAIN
PICTURE BY LATE TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. OF COURSE...THE BAD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN HIGHS BY FRI IN THE MID
90S.
END OF THE WEEK INDICATES THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH ALONG OR NEAR EACH COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF AFTN THUNDER EACH DAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 052039
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR HOUSTON COUNTY MOVING SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST DRAGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEHIND IT THAT EXTENDS TO THE
SW ACROSS ARKANSAS. LAPS OUTPUT INDICATES A GOOD 3000+ CAPE CENTER
NEAR THE LOW CENTER THAT HAS STRENGTHENED SLOWLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THINK THAT CLDNS OVERHEAD HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BE ABLE TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS AND SPIT OUT A GUST TO 60 MPH OR SO. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE EFFECTS OF AFTERNOON HEATING WEAR
OFF THIS EVENING.
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK ESE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...TAKING MOST OF THE MIDSTATE OUT OF THE RAIN
PICTURE BY LATE TOMORROW. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. OF COURSE...THE BAD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN HIGHS BY FRI IN THE MID
90S.
END OF THE WEEK INDICATES THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH ALONG OR NEAR EACH COAST. A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF AFTN THUNDER EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 67 85 64 90 / 20 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 66 86 62 89 / 20 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 63 81 60 84 / 40 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 68 85 64 91 / 40 20 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 69 85 65 91 / 50 30 10 10
WAVERLY 67 86 63 90 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KMEG 052031
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NASHVILLE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST ARKANSAS NORTH OF I-40. REGIONAL WSR-
88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NAM/GFS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT LEANED FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS AS THE 12Z NAM MAY BE EXHIBITING SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. NONETHELESS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS PREDOMINANTLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAIN QUITE WEAK.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY
RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE MID
SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETROGRADE WEST BY NEXT
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
THROUGH 01Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CAN
BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...1 HOUR OR
LESS...ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE. CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT BRIEF...15
MINUTES OR LESS. FOR NOW...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR WORDING
IN TAFS. KEPT VCTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP.
01-06Z...BELIEVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. VCSH/VCTS MAY CONTINUE AT KTUP. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT KMEM AND KMKL AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES SOUTH.
06-18Z...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY 09-15Z. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES 09-15Z...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS. VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AROUND 11-12Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
BY 15-16Z AND PERHAPS VFR BY 18Z. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER 14Z.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 88 69 91 / 40 10 10 10
MKL 67 86 65 90 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 66 87 65 90 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 71 87 69 91 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 051832
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
232 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE TN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. EXTRAOPLATION OF THESE SHOWERS BRINGS THEM INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND MIDNIGHT. SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE
EVENING HOURS. NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR AREA AS
OVERCAST CLOUDS ALL DAY WILL PREVENT MUCH DESTABILIZATION...AND
ORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. WILL ALSO JUST MENTION A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY TRAILING BEHIND. SATELLITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH
PRECIP. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. EXPECTED CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD
PREVENT NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FURTHER DECREASE OUR
PRECIP CHANCES. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH THE DRIER NAM FOR TOMORROW
AND WILL TAPER THE POPS BACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS THE SE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE NE STATES WITH NW
FLOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE THERE.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY ON THE
EAST SIDE SO KEPT FORECAST DRY. HOWEVER TROUGH ACROSS NE BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES EDGES EAST WARMING
THE ATMOSPHERE SO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY GFS SHOWS
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND CLIPPING OUR NE AREA BUT
ECMWF DRY SO KEEPING FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. RIDGING MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER AND AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BY FRIDAY KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY. SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGHER
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 84 66 90 64 / 70 30 10 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 84 62 88 63 / 70 20 10 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 68 84 62 89 62 / 70 20 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 82 59 86 57 / 70 10 10 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/TD
000
FXUS64 KMEG 051750
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
KNQA/KGWX SHOW MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE REGIONAL WSR-88D
TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS PROPAGATING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY/VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY. WILL
MENTION A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH STRONG WINDS AS A THREAT AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD TO POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/TEMPERATURE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SHORT
TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MID SOUTH. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN DAY 7 OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
OKULSKI
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
THROUGH 01Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CAN
BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...1 HOUR OR
LESS...ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE. CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT BRIEF...15
MINUTES OR LESS. FOR NOW...WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR WORDING
IN TAFS. KEPT VCTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP.
01-06Z...BELIEVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...THOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. VCSH/VCTS MAY CONTINUE AT KTUP. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT KMEM AND KMKL AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES SOUTH.
06-18Z...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY 09-15Z. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES 09-15Z...WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS. VLIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL AROUND 11-12Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
BY 15-16Z AND PERHAPS VFR BY 18Z. NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER 14Z.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 68 88 68 / 60 40 10 10
MKL 83 66 86 64 / 50 30 10 10
JBR 83 66 87 65 / 40 30 10 10
TUP 86 69 87 67 / 70 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 051731 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
131 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL TRACK E-SE ACROSS
KY THROUGH THE EVENING. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MAINLY
VFR VIS AND CIGS...WTIH SOME LOCATIONS MVFR. EXPECT THAT THE TAF
SITES WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z...AND WILL HAVE A TEMPO
SHRA WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS IN THAT TIMEFRAME. AS THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO 1000 FT
OR LESS AT ALL SITES. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMEG 051549
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
KNQA/KGWX SHOW MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE REGIONAL WSR-88D
TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS PROPAGATING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY/VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY. WILL
MENTION A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS A PORITON OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH STRONG WINDS AS A THREAT AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD TO POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/TEMPERATURE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SHORT
TERM TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MID SOUTH. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN DAY 7 OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
OKULSKI
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TUP WITH THUNDERSTORMS. NORTH OF THIS
CONVECTION...BUT SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW
AS AIRMASS HAS BEEN VIGOROUSLY WORKED OVER BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED PRIMARILY WITH TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING
AT MEM AND MKL...AND MAINTAINED VCTS AT JBR THIS MORNING AND FOR
MEM AND MKL THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTION.
POOR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS EVEN BEHIND WEAK FRONT AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 68 88 68 / 60 40 10 10
MKL 83 66 86 64 / 50 30 10 10
JBR 83 66 88 65 / 40 30 10 10
TUP 86 69 88 67 / 70 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 051503
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1003 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR STEWART COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
THE NORTH. LOCAL WRF MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURE
PATTERN FURTHER SOUTH. RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SRN BORDER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CENTER AND THE
EXTENSIVE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB WILL CONTINUE WITH 40-80%
POPS ORIENTED NW TO SE. NO CHANGES FOR NOW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KMRX 051413 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1013 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL IMPACT THE CWA TODAY. TO THE SOUTH...A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH. THE EFFECT OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE TO CUT OFF
ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF. TO THE NORTH...SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS.
LIMITED INSTABILITY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND LACK OF
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED SHOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS SCATERED AND
MAINLY LIGHT. 12Z OHX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE
700 MB AND STABLE LAPSE RATES. SO WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN
WARRANTED THROUGH THE DAY...PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN
MOST SPOTS. WILL KEEP THE POPS AS THEY ARE...BUT LOWER THE QPF.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOLER THAN FORECAST...AND WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WILL LOWER TEMPS WITH THE
UPDATE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMEG 051137
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MESOCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MID SOUTH. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN DAY 7 OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
OKULSKI
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TUP WITH THUNDERSTORMS. NORTH OF THIS
CONVECTION...BUT SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW
AS AIRMASS HAS BEEN VIGOROUSLY WORKED OVER BY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED PRIMARILY WITH TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING
AT MEM AND MKL...AND MAINTAINED VCTS AT JBR THIS MORNING AND FOR
MEM AND MKL THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTION.
POOR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS EVEN BEHIND WEAK FRONT AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 68 88 68 / 60 40 10 10
MKL 83 66 86 64 / 50 30 10 10
JBR 83 66 88 65 / 40 30 10 10
TUP 86 69 88 67 / 70 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 051112
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
712 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER INTO TONIGHT. WILL SEE SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDER
AROUND INTO EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WILL SEE MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATE AT TRI THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN TONIGHT AT CHA AND TYS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 050929
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
429 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.UPDATE...
CHANGE TO PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS SECTION
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 82 66 87 63 / 50 20 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 83 66 87 64 / 40 20 0 10
CROSSVILLE 77 63 81 60 / 70 50 40 10
COLUMBIA 83 68 86 64 / 60 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 83 68 86 64 / 70 40 20 10
WAVERLY 83 67 87 64 / 50 20 0 10
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
SHORT TERM (TDAY-TUE)...
STALLED WARM FRONT NORTH OF MID TN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE IN A SFC TROUGH FM S MID TN INTO AR. MODELS SHIFT
DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH TDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FRONTAL BDRY
IN AR BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WL
BE IN THE SOUTH. SCT NORTH.
FRONTAL BDRY EXPECTED TO CLEAR S MID TN TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES DOMINANT
IN THE NORTH MON AND ACR MIDSTATE TUE. DRY WX RETURNS. TEMPS CLOSE
TO 90 TUE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...
WARM DRY PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A FRONTAL BDRY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING H5 MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH STEERING.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KOHX 050912
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
412 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SHORT TERM (TDAY-TUE)...
STALLED WARM FRONT NORTH OF MID TN THIS MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE IN A SFC TROUGH FM S MID TN INTO AR. MODELS SHIFT
DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH TDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FRONTAL BDRY
IN AR BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WL
BE IN THE SOUTH. SCT NORTH.
FRONTAL BDRY EXPECTED TO CLEAR S MID TN TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES DOMINANT
IN THE NORTH MON AND ACR MIDSTATE TUE. DRY WX RETURNS. TEMPS CLOSE
TO 90 TUE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...
WARM DRY PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN
NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A FRONTAL BDRY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING H5 MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH STEERING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 83 66 87 63 / 70 20 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 84 66 87 64 / 50 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 78 63 81 60 / 70 60 40 10
COLUMBIA 84 68 86 64 / 70 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 84 68 86 64 / 70 50 20 10
WAVERLY 84 67 87 64 / 50 20 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KMEG 050808
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WARM SECTOR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MESOCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MID SOUTH. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN DAY 7 OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
OKULSKI
&&
AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SURFACE FRONT WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO...NORTH OF KSGF...SOUTH
OF KSTL AT DISCUSSION TIME. THUS FAR...TSRA HAVE MANAGED TO AVOID
THE MIDSOUTH TERMINALS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKL. AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE.
ACTIVITY OVER AR SHOULD LIFT INTO KMEM VICINITY AROUND 06Z.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...LIKELY STALLING OVER NORTH MS. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...BUT PERHAPS A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST DIRECTION AT KMEM
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST TSRA CHANCE AT KTUP.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 68 88 68 / 60 40 10 10
MKL 83 66 86 64 / 50 30 10 10
JBR 83 66 88 65 / 40 30 10 10
TUP 86 69 88 67 / 70 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 050656
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
256 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT.
WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIP TODAY...SO WILL GO CAT POPS
ALL ZONES. LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER NORTH...SO WILL STILL MENTION
CHANCE THUNDER FOR NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH AND
LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE EARLY...WITH LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
CONFINE THUNDER MENTION TO SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL
BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. SKIES
WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TO
THE NORTHERN GULF (WHICH IS UNUSUAL FOR THE MONTH OF JULY). WEAK
SURFACE RIDING AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT
ROLES FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED FOR FRIDAY SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...THEN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. WILL CALL FOR A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AREA-WIDE.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 70 83 64 90 / 80 70 50 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 66 83 62 87 / 80 60 30 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 81 65 85 61 88 / 80 60 30 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 63 82 59 85 / 80 50 20 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW/DH
000
FXUS64 KMRX 050508
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
108 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDER
AROUND ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY. TRI WILL START OUT WITH SOME MVFR
VIS IN FOG AND SHOWERS...AND LOOKS LIKE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME PREVALENT AT TRI BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WHILE MVFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES AT CHA AND TYS...ESPECIALLY
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...DIFFICULTY IN TIMING
WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINATELY VFR FORECAST FOR THOSE SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 050506 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS AS WELL AS EXPIRED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR WEST TENNESSEE.
DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE
ENDING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 547 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ONLY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. COLD
FRONT IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO ARKANSAS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATER TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
KNS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR COLUMBIA MISSOURI WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS OF
3 PM CDT. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST
PACKAGE.
NAM/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING A BIT AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL BUT THINK OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL AT BEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
LATEST 12Z MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY MAY
LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DEPART THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR BACK TO THE
AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SURFACE FRONT WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO...NORTH OF KSGF...SOUTH
OF KSTL AT DISCUSSION TIME. THUS FAR...TSRA HAVE MANAGED TO AVOID
THE MIDSOUTH TERMINALS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMKL. AS THE FRONT
DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE.
ACTIVITY OVER AR SHOULD LIFT INTO KMEM VICINITY AROUND 06Z.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...LIKELY STALLING OVER NORTH MS. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...BUT PERHAPS A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST DIRECTION AT KMEM
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGEST TSRA CHANCE AT KTUP.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 86 67 88 / 80 60 30 10
MKL 71 83 65 86 / 80 50 20 10
JBR 70 83 65 88 / 50 40 20 10
TUP 72 86 68 88 / 40 70 30 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 050439
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO TRAIN DOWN ACROSS BENTON
INTO SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS AND HAVE NOW WORKED DOWN INTO PERRY
COUNTY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME COLDER ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
TENNESSEE ADJACENT TO BENTON COUNTY. RUC HAS SHORT WAVE WORKING
ACROSS MIDDLE TN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ADVISORIES ON-GOING
FOR BENTON AND HUMPREYS COUNTIES AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE FOR PERRY
BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME SINCE STORMS ARE JUST NOW GETTING
INTO PERRY. EXPECT STORMS WILL TRY AND TRAIN ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF WEST TENNESSEE WILL SLIDE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP EFFICIENCY OFF 00Z GFS IS REAL HIGH
IN WESTERN MIDDLE TN AT 06Z BUT BY 12Z HAS MOVED DOWN ALONG
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BORDER AND OVER ALONG PLATEAU. IF THIS
IS CORRECT NORTHERN MIDDLE TN NORTH OF I40 WOULD ESCAPE THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CURRENT TREND
ANYWAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
000
FXUS64 KOHX 050259
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
HAVE HAD REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING IN DAVIDSON COUNTY. MAINLY WATER
ON ROADWAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN BASED ON DOPPLER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
FROM DOWNTOWN NASHVILLE EAST INTO THE HERMITAGE AND DONELSON AREAS
AS WELL AS MADISON AND OLD HICKORY. RAINFALL RATES HAVE EXCEEDED
2 INCHES PER HOUR AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON COUNTY.
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN WEST TENNESSEE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN TN
BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA...AND 1.84 INCHES OFF
OHX 00Z RAOB. THIS HIGH MOISTURE FIELD WILL BE ADVECTED TOWARD
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY A WESTERLY 850-300 MB MEAN WIND FIELD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS MIDDLE TN BUT HAVE BECOME COLDER
IN WEST TENNESSEE WHERE THE STRONGER CELLS ARE. MONITORING ONE CELL
JUST WEST OF BENTON CO AT THIS TIME. LMA SHOWING RATHER INTENSE
LIGHTNING JUST EAST OF HUNTINGDON. CELLS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MID
STATE HAVE ENCOUNTERED MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ARE LOSING
STRENGTH. THERE ARE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS HOWEVER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS WARMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH MSAS
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE
BOW ECHO/LINE BEGINNING TO OUTRUN NORTHERN EXTEND OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL PROBABLY
LET CURRENT SEVERE TSTM WARNING EXPIRE SINCE NO REPORTS OF SEVERE
WX DURING THE LAST HOUR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 050143
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
843 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS MIDDLE TN BUT HAVE BECOME COLDER
IN WEST TENNESSEE WHERE THE STRONGER CELLS ARE. MONITORING ONE CELL
JUST WEST OF BENTON CO AT THIS TIME. LMA SHOWING RATHER INTENSE
LIGHTNING JUST EAST OF HUNTINGDON. CELLS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MID
STATE HAVE ENCOUNTERED MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ARE LOSING
STRENGTH. THERE ARE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS HOWEVER.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS WARMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH MSAS
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE
BOW ECHO/LINE BEGINNING TO OUTRUN NORTHERN EXTEND OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL PROBABLY
LET CURRENT SEVERE TSTM WARNING EXPIRE SINCE NO REPORTS OF SEVERE
WX DURING THE LAST HOUR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
000
FXUS64 KMEG 050142
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
842 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS AS WELL AS EXPIRED THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR WEST TENNESSEE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING AS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE
ENDING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 547 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS ONLY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. COLD
FRONT IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND AS A RESULT...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO ARKANSAS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATER TONIGHT. LOWERED POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
KNS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR COLUMBIA MISSOURI WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS OF
3 PM CDT. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST
PACKAGE.
NAM/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING A BIT AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL BUT THINK OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL AT BEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
LATEST 12Z MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY MAY
LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DEPART THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR BACK TO THE
AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. KJBR IS BEGINNING TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH KEPT VCSH THROUGH 03Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PLACED TEMPOS
FOR BOTH KMEM AND KMKL FROM 02Z TO 04Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR KMEM AS THE BULK OF TSRA REMAIN NORTH OF THE METRO AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD REAMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KTUP...AFTER
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 86 67 88 / 60 60 30 10
MKL 71 83 65 86 / 90 50 20 10
JBR 70 83 65 88 / 50 40 20 10
TUP 72 86 68 88 / 40 70 30 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 050135
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW APPROACHING CWA. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO SPEED UP PRECIP A BIT
FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS...BUT WILL OVERALL POPS
FOR TONIGHT AS IS. WILL ALSO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. TEMPERATURES
AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTRAPOLATING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN KY BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR KY
BORDER COUNTIES AROUND 00Z. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP THIS EVENING
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT THE PEAK OF THE SHOWERS TO BE CENTERED AROUND
12Z. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST A CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE INSTABILITY APPEARS BETTER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY BECOMES
SURFACE-BASED...AND THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY. HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS EARLY THEN
DECREASING MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY EARLY SOUTHEAST PART. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER BUT GENERALLY WENT AT GUIDANCE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIRMASS AND A POTENTIAL SLIGHT
DROP IN DEW POINTS BEHIND FRONT. MONDAY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH IN THE MORNING WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH
OF THERE. OTHERWISE AIRMASS DRIES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MS AND OHIO VALLEYS BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE TN VALLEY. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE COUNTRY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES EDGES FARTHER EAST WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL AT THE SURFACE WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT
STAYING DRY. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH NW FLOW ONCE AGAIN AROUND WESTERN RIDGE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. HAVE JUST 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
RIGHT NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 83 67 86 64 / 60 90 50 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 81 65 84 63 / 70 90 50 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 80 65 85 62 / 80 90 40 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 75 62 82 57 / 70 90 50 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH/DGS/TD
000
FXUS64 KOHX 050115
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
815 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS WARMING ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH MSAS
SHOWING BEST INSTABILITY OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE
BOW ECHO/LINE BEGINNING TO OUTRUN NORTHERN EXTEND OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL PROBABLY
LET CURRENT SEVERE TSTM WARNING EXPIRE SINCE NO REPORTS OF SEVERE
WX DURING THE LAST HOUR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
000
FXUS64 KOHX 050105
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
805 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
MONITORING STORM IN TODD COUNTY KY CLOSELY AS ITS JUST NORTH OF
MY CWA. IT HAS GOOD INBOUND WITH A RATHER DEEP MESO. COULD BE
TORNADIC.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BOW ECHO ALONG MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND ROBERTSON COUNTY LINE HAS BEGUN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THIS BOTH IN REFLECTIVITY FIELD AND IN
STORM RELATIVE MOTION FIELD. REAR INFLOW IS ALSO WEAKENING...BUT
COMMA HEAD STILL EVIDENT IN TODD COUNTY KY. LMA CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RATHER STRONG LIGHTNING DISPLAY JUST EAST OF CLARKSVILLE AT 0034Z.
WILL CONTINUE TORNADO WARNING THROUGH EXPIRATION.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 050045
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
745 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BOW ECHO ALONG MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND ROBERTSON COUNTY LINE HAS BEGUN
TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THIS BOTH IN REFLECTIVITY FIELD AND IN
STORM RELATIVE MOTION FIELD. REAR INFLOW IS ALSO WEAKENING...BUT
COMMA HEAD STILL EVIDENT IN TODD COUNTY KY. LMA CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RATHER STRONG LIGHTNING DISPLAY JUST EAST OF CLARKSVILLE AT 0034Z.
WILL CONTINUE TORNADO WARNING THROUGH EXPIRATION.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
000
FXUS64 KMEG 050019
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
719 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR COLUMBIA MISSOURI WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS OF
3 PM CDT. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST
PACKAGE.
NAM/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING A BIT AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL BUT THINK OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL AT BEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
LATEST 12Z MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY MAY
LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DEPART THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR BACK TO THE
AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. KJBR IS BEGINNING TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH KEPT VCSH THROUGH 03Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS. PLACED TEMPOS
FOR BOTH KMEM AND KMKL FROM 02Z TO 04Z ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR KMEM AS THE BULK OF TSRA REMAIN NORTH OF THE METRO AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD REAMAIN AT ALL TAF SITES...EXCEPT KTUP...AFTER
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 86 67 88 / 70 60 30 10
MKL 71 83 65 86 / 70 50 20 10
JBR 70 83 65 88 / 60 40 20 10
TUP 72 86 68 88 / 70 70 30 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 050002
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
702 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CLASSIC BOW ECHO MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL STEWART CO AT 2353Z WITH
COMMA HEAD OVER SOUTHERN TRIGG CO KY. TORNADO WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR STEWART AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BROAD CIRCULATION FROM STORM IN CALLOWAY CO KY AT 2326Z OFF PAH DOPPLER.
MESO POPPED OFF IN EASTERN CALLOWAY CO AT 2329Z OFF OHX DOPPLER. THIS
STORM HAS PRODUCED REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. HAVE ISSUED TORNADO WARNING
FOR STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT. THIS STORM IS NOW ENTERING LAND
BETWEEN LAKES AREA. SHOULD BE A TREE DOWNER AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THAT AREA. BOATERS NEED TO GET OFF TENNESSEE AND CUMBERLAND RIVERS
IN STEWART CO IMMEDIATELY.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST OF NASHVILLE...FROM ABOUT ASHLAND CITY
WEST TO WAVERLY WITH A RATHER INTENSE CELL OVER SOUTHEAST DICKSON
CO NEAR BURNS. CELL OVER BURNS STILL HAS SUSPENDED CORE. WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM FOR SOUTHEAST DICKSON AND NORTHEAST
HICKMAN CO`S.
MSAS SURFACE LI`S HAVE LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM NASHVILLE EASTWARD. ALSO...
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SURFACE BASED NEGATIVE ENERGY (CIN) FROM
ABOUT I65 EASTWARD. AS STORMS TO THE WEST NASHVILLE MOVE EAST OF
I65 THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
-6 LIFTED INDICES STRUNG OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS FAR EAST AS I65. ONE STORM IN SOUTHWEST
SUMNER CO HAS 60 DBZ SUSPENDED AROUND 11K. THIS RIGHT ON EASTERN EDGE
OF BEST LI`S. STORM MOVEMENT FROM 270/30KTS.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ON THE SFC ANALYSIS CHARTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL...SW IN AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. BEST SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEASTWARD. BEST PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE 850 MB BOUNDARY. OF ADDITIONAL NOTE...PVA CORRIDOR TO
SET UP GENERALLY SW OF THE MID STATE. THUS...ALL IN ALL...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MID STATE AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MID STATE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE PVA CORRIDOR AND THUS...THE
SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF IMMEDIATE UPPER
SUPPORT.
NEVERTHELESS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS DO EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS
THROUGH...ENERGY ALONG THE SFC FRONT BECOMES MORE ELONGATED THEREBY
REDUCING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FORCING. SO...HEAVIER PRECIP OVER A
GENERAL AREA APPEARS TO BE ABSENT FROM THE EQUATION ONCE AGAIN.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL STILL BE INCLUDED TONIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE AXIS WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW. IT JUST
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID STATE.
AS FOR TIMING OF TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY. PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME WITH THE CATEGORICAL IMPACT GEARED TOWARD THE
AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS. TOUGH CALL FOR THE FIREWORKS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT I WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF SHOWER AND TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...OF COURSE...BEING ACROSS THE NW ZONES. FOR BNA IN
PARTICULAR...RAINFALL MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM.
SFC FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW WITH TIME SO WE WILL
SEE THE FRONT SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES NORTHERN AL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP 20-40 POPS GOING FOR SOUTH MIDDLE
TN THROUGH MON NT AND A SLT CHC NORTH THROUGH SUN NT.
FOR TEMPS...MAV LOOKS TOO COOL FOR LOWS AS THAT MODEL APPEARS A BIT
SLUGGISH IN REGARD TO THE INCREASING DEWPOINT TREND. WILL THEREFORE
GO ABOVE THE MAV MINS.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO LEAN TOWARD TN TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER
IN PLACE AS A SFC RIDGE CONTROLS. THEN...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST...LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH WARMER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPS...COMPLIMENTS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED...WEAK NW FLOW MAY SLIP A BOUNDARY
ACROSS US. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO ABOVE THE MEX AS IT CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE TOWARD CLIMO WHILE THE EURO AND THE GFS POINT TOWARD
INCREASING HEIGHTS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMRX 042358
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
758 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY
ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOOON. LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
000
FXUS64 KOHX 042341
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BROAD CIRCULATION FROM STORM IN CALLOWAY CO KY AT 2326Z OFF PAH DOPPLER.
MESO POPPED OFF IN EASTERN CALLOWAY CO AT 2329Z OFF OHX DOPPLER. THIS
STORM HAS PRODUCED REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. HAVE ISSUED TORNADO WARNING
FOR STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT. THIS STORM IS NOW ENTERING LAND
BETWEEN LAKES AREA. SHOULD BE A TREE DOWNER AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THAT AREA. BOATERS NEED TO GET OFF TENNESSEE AND CUMBERLAND RIVERS
IN STEWART CO IMMEDIATELY.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST OF NASHVILLE...FROM ABOUT ASHLAND CITY
WEST TO WAVERLY WITH A RATHER INTENSE CELL OVER SOUTHEAST DICKSON
CO NEAR BURNS. CELL OVER BURNS STILL HAS SUSPENDED CORE. WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM FOR SOUTHEAST DICKSON AND NORTHEAST
HICKMAN CO`S.
MSAS SURFACE LI`S HAVE LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM NASHVILLE EASTWARD. ALSO...
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SURFACE BASED NEGATIVE ENERGY (CIN) FROM
ABOUT I65 EASTWARD. AS STORMS TO THE WEST NASHVILLE MOVE EAST OF
I65 THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
-6 LIFTED INDICES STRUNG OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS FAR EAST AS I65. ONE STORM IN SOUTHWEST
SUMNER CO HAS 60 DBZ SUSPENDED AROUND 11K. THIS RIGHT ON EASTERN EDGE
OF BEST LI`S. STORM MOVEMENT FROM 270/30KTS.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ON THE SFC ANALYSIS CHARTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL...SW IN AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. BEST SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEASTWARD. BEST PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE 850 MB BOUNDARY. OF ADDITIONAL NOTE...PVA CORRIDOR TO
SET UP GENERALLY SW OF THE MID STATE. THUS...ALL IN ALL...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MID STATE AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MID STATE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE PVA CORRIDOR AND THUS...THE
SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF IMMEDIATE UPPER
SUPPORT.
NEVERTHELESS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS DO EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS
THROUGH...ENERGY ALONG THE SFC FRONT BECOMES MORE ELONGATED THEREBY
REDUCING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FORCING. SO...HEAVIER PRECIP OVER A
GENERAL AREA APPEARS TO BE ABSENT FROM THE EQUATION ONCE AGAIN.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL STILL BE INCLUDED TONIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE AXIS WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW. IT JUST
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID STATE.
AS FOR TIMING OF TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY. PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME WITH THE CATEGORICAL IMPACT GEARED TOWARD THE
AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS. TOUGH CALL FOR THE FIREWORKS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT I WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF SHOWER AND TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...OF COURSE...BEING ACROSS THE NW ZONES. FOR BNA IN
PARTICULAR...RAINFALL MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM.
SFC FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW WITH TIME SO WE WILL
SEE THE FRONT SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES NORTHERN AL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP 20-40 POPS GOING FOR SOUTH MIDDLE
TN THROUGH MON NT AND A SLT CHC NORTH THROUGH SUN NT.
FOR TEMPS...MAV LOOKS TOO COOL FOR LOWS AS THAT MODEL APPEARS A BIT
SLUGGISH IN REGARD TO THE INCREASING DEWPOINT TREND. WILL THEREFORE
GO ABOVE THE MAV MINS.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO LEAN TOWARD TN TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER
IN PLACE AS A SFC RIDGE CONTROLS. THEN...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST...LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH WARMER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPS...COMPLIMENTS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED...WEAK NW FLOW MAY SLIP A BOUNDARY
ACROSS US. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO ABOVE THE MEX AS IT CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE TOWARD CLIMO WHILE THE EURO AND THE GFS POINT TOWARD
INCREASING HEIGHTS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 042223
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
523 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE WEST OF NASHVILLE...FROM ABOUT ASHLAND CITY
WEST TO WAVERLY WITH A RATHER INTENSE CELL OVER SOUTHEAST DICKSON
CO NEAR BURNS. CELL OVER BURNS STILL HAS SUSPENDED CORE. WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM FOR SOUTHEAST DICKSON AND NORTHEAST
HICKMAN CO`S.
MSAS SURFACE LI`S HAVE LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM NASHVILLE EASTWARD. ALSO...
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SURFACE BASED NEGATIVE ENERGY (CIN) FROM
ABOUT I65 EASTWARD. AS STORMS TO THE WEST NASHVILLE MOVE EAST OF
I65 THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
-6 LIFTED INDICES STRUNG OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS FAR EAST AS I65. ONE STORM IN SOUTHWEST
SUMNER CO HAS 60 DBZ SUSPENDED AROUND 11K. THIS RIGHT ON EASTERN EDGE
OF BEST LI`S. STORM MOVEMENT FROM 270/30KTS.
BOYD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ON THE SFC ANALYSIS CHARTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL...SW IN AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. BEST SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEASTWARD. BEST PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE 850 MB BOUNDARY. OF ADDITIONAL NOTE...PVA CORRIDOR TO
SET UP GENERALLY SW OF THE MID STATE. THUS...ALL IN ALL...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MID STATE AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MID STATE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE PVA CORRIDOR AND THUS...THE
SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF IMMEDIATE UPPER
SUPPORT.
NEVERTHELESS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS DO EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS
THROUGH...ENERGY ALONG THE SFC FRONT BECOMES MORE ELONGATED THEREBY
REDUCING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FORCING. SO...HEAVIER PRECIP OVER A
GENERAL AREA APPEARS TO BE ABSENT FROM THE EQUATION ONCE AGAIN.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL STILL BE INCLUDED TONIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE AXIS WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW. IT JUST
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID STATE.
AS FOR TIMING OF TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY. PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME WITH THE CATEGORICAL IMPACT GEARED TOWARD THE
AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS. TOUGH CALL FOR THE FIREWORKS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT I WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF SHOWER AND TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...OF COURSE...BEING ACROSS THE NW ZONES. FOR BNA IN
PARTICULAR...RAINFALL MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM.
SFC FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW WITH TIME SO WE WILL
SEE THE FRONT SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES NORTHERN AL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP 20-40 POPS GOING FOR SOUTH MIDDLE
TN THROUGH MON NT AND A SLT CHC NORTH THROUGH SUN NT.
FOR TEMPS...MAV LOOKS TOO COOL FOR LOWS AS THAT MODEL APPEARS A BIT
SLUGGISH IN REGARD TO THE INCREASING DEWPOINT TREND. WILL THEREFORE
GO ABOVE THE MAV MINS.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO LEAN TOWARD TN TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER
IN PLACE AS A SFC RIDGE CONTROLS. THEN...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST...LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH WARMER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPS...COMPLIMENTS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED...WEAK NW FLOW MAY SLIP A BOUNDARY
ACROSS US. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO ABOVE THE MEX AS IT CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE TOWARD CLIMO WHILE THE EURO AND THE GFS POINT TOWARD
INCREASING HEIGHTS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KOHX 042135
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
435 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
-6 LIFTED INDICES STRUNG OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS FAR EAST AS I65. ONE STORM IN SOUTHWEST
SUMNER CO HAS 60 DBZ SUSPENDED AROUND 11K. THIS RIGHT ON EASTERN EDGE
OF BEST LI`S. STORM MOVEMENT FROM 270/30KTS.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ON THE SFC ANALYSIS CHARTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL...SW IN AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. BEST SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEASTWARD. BEST PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE 850 MB BOUNDARY. OF ADDITIONAL NOTE...PVA CORRIDOR TO
SET UP GENERALLY SW OF THE MID STATE. THUS...ALL IN ALL...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MID STATE AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MID STATE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE PVA CORRIDOR AND THUS...THE
SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF IMMEDIATE UPPER
SUPPORT.
NEVERTHELESS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS DO EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS
THROUGH...ENERGY ALONG THE SFC FRONT BECOMES MORE ELONGATED THEREBY
REDUCING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FORCING. SO...HEAVIER PRECIP OVER A
GENERAL AREA APPEARS TO BE ABSENT FROM THE EQUATION ONCE AGAIN.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL STILL BE INCLUDED TONIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE AXIS WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW. IT JUST
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID STATE.
AS FOR TIMING OF TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY. PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME WITH THE CATEGORICAL IMPACT GEARED TOWARD THE
AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS. TOUGH CALL FOR THE FIREWORKS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT I WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF SHOWER AND TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...OF COURSE...BEING ACROSS THE NW ZONES. FOR BNA IN
PARTICULAR...RAINFALL MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM.
SFC FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW WITH TIME SO WE WILL
SEE THE FRONT SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES NORTHERN AL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP 20-40 POPS GOING FOR SOUTH MIDDLE
TN THROUGH MON NT AND A SLT CHC NORTH THROUGH SUN NT.
FOR TEMPS...MAV LOOKS TOO COOL FOR LOWS AS THAT MODEL APPEARS A BIT
SLUGGISH IN REGARD TO THE INCREASING DEWPOINT TREND. WILL THEREFORE
GO ABOVE THE MAV MINS.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO LEAN TOWARD TN TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER
IN PLACE AS A SFC RIDGE CONTROLS. THEN...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST...LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH WARMER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPS...COMPLIMENTS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED...WEAK NW FLOW MAY SLIP A BOUNDARY
ACROSS US. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO ABOVE THE MEX AS IT CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE TOWARD CLIMO WHILE THE EURO AND THE GFS POINT TOWARD
INCREASING HEIGHTS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KMEG 042101
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
401 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR COLUMBIA MISSOURI WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST BACK INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS OF
3 PM CDT. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST
PACKAGE.
NAM/GFS SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING A BIT AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE
SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL BUT THINK OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL AT BEST. DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
LATEST 12Z MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY MAY
LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DEPART THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT
SATURDAY WILL BRING BACK WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR BACK TO THE
AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 23Z.
23-06Z...EXPECT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND AFFECT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
PERHAPS UP TO 40 KTS AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LINE...MAINLY LESS THAN 30 MINUTES IN DURATION. EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH...THEN TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE LINE WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING.
AFTER 06Z...THINK BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL END...BUT SOME ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER MAINLY NEAR KMEM AND KTUP. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE...DID
NOT TEMPO THIS ACTIVITY FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT KMEM...KJBR...AND
KMKL ALONG AND NORTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KTUP SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 86 67 88 / 70 70 30 10
MKL 71 83 65 86 / 70 70 20 10
JBR 70 83 65 88 / 60 60 20 10
TUP 72 86 68 88 / 70 70 30 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 041944
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
244 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ON THE SFC ANALYSIS CHARTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL...SW IN AND ALONG THE OH RIVER. BEST SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEASTWARD. BEST PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE 850 MB BOUNDARY. OF ADDITIONAL NOTE...PVA CORRIDOR TO
SET UP GENERALLY SW OF THE MID STATE. THUS...ALL IN ALL...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MID STATE AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MID STATE.
SFC LOW LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE PVA CORRIDOR AND THUS...THE
SFC LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME AFTER 06Z GIVEN THE LACK OF IMMEDIATE UPPER
SUPPORT.
NEVERTHELESS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING THROUGH BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT PRESSURE FALLS DO EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY BUT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. AS THE BOUNDARY SWINGS
THROUGH...ENERGY ALONG THE SFC FRONT BECOMES MORE ELONGATED THEREBY
REDUCING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FORCING. SO...HEAVIER PRECIP OVER A
GENERAL AREA APPEARS TO BE ABSENT FROM THE EQUATION ONCE AGAIN.
OVERALL...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL STILL BE INCLUDED TONIGHT GIVEN THE
APPROACHING MOISTURE AXIS WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW. IT JUST
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MID STATE.
AS FOR TIMING OF TONIGHT`S ACTIVITY. PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME WITH THE CATEGORICAL IMPACT GEARED TOWARD THE
AFTER MIDNIGHT HOURS. TOUGH CALL FOR THE FIREWORKS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT I WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF SHOWER AND TSTMS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE...OF COURSE...BEING ACROSS THE NW ZONES. FOR BNA IN
PARTICULAR...RAINFALL MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 9 OR 10 PM.
SFC FRONT TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW WITH TIME SO WE WILL
SEE THE FRONT SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES NORTHERN AL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP 20-40 POPS GOING FOR SOUTH MIDDLE
TN THROUGH MON NT AND A SLT CHC NORTH THROUGH SUN NT.
FOR TEMPS...MAV LOOKS TOO COOL FOR LOWS AS THAT MODEL APPEARS A BIT
SLUGGISH IN REGARD TO THE INCREASING DEWPOINT TREND. WILL THEREFORE
GO ABOVE THE MAV MINS.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO LEAN TOWARD TN TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER
IN PLACE AS A SFC RIDGE CONTROLS. THEN...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST...LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH WARMER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPS...COMPLIMENTS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED...WEAK NW FLOW MAY SLIP A BOUNDARY
ACROSS US. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO ABOVE THE MEX AS IT CONTINUES TO
MIGRATE TOWARD CLIMO WHILE THE EURO AND THE GFS POINT TOWARD
INCREASING HEIGHTS.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 68 83 67 87 / 80 60 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 67 82 64 86 / 80 40 20 10
CROSSVILLE 64 78 63 80 / 60 60 40 10
COLUMBIA 69 84 68 86 / 80 60 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 69 85 68 85 / 90 60 40 20
WAVERLY 68 83 66 86 / 80 40 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KMRX 041913
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTRAPOLATING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN KY BRINGS PRECIP INTO OUR KY
BORDER COUNTIES AROUND 00Z. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP THIS EVENING
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET PUSHES
FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT THE PEAK OF THE SHOWERS TO BE CENTERED AROUND
12Z. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST A CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THE INSTABILITY APPEARS BETTER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE INSTABILITY BECOMES
SURFACE-BASED...AND THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE...MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AIRMASS STABILIZES AND
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY. HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS EARLY THEN
DECREASING MOST AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY EARLY SOUTHEAST PART. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER BUT GENERALLY WENT AT GUIDANCE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIRMASS AND A POTENTIAL SLIGHT
DROP IN DEW POINTS BEHIND FRONT. MONDAY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH IN THE MORNING WITH FRONT JUST SOUTH
OF THERE. OTHERWISE AIRMASS DRIES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MS AND OHIO VALLEYS BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE TN VALLEY. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE COUNTRY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES EDGES FARTHER EAST WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL AT THE SURFACE WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT
STAYING DRY. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH NW FLOW ONCE AGAIN AROUND WESTERN RIDGE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. HAVE JUST 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
RIGHT NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 83 67 86 64 / 60 90 50 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 81 65 84 63 / 70 90 50 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 80 65 85 62 / 80 90 40 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 75 62 82 57 / 70 90 50 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/TD
000
FXUS64 KMEG 041732
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR OMAHA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
EAST FROM THE LOW INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S AT MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAIN CONCERN IN
THE MORNING UPDATE IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D TRENDS SHOW TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY.
ANALYSIS OF LATEST 12Z NAM INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A MODIFIED AFTERNOON
SURFACE BASED PARCEL (94/68) RESULTS IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2300 J/KG...LI/S AROUND -6...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE DATA THINK THE
PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. TORNADIC POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO MINIMAL AT THIS POINT TO
JUSTIFY MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS THIS
LINE SLOWS DOWN AS IT SPREADS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS IN AN UPDATED HWO. WILL UPDATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT/S FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A H5 SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE 00 UTC GFS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS FOR EARLY JULY WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KTS AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT /DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SERVICE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SERVICE AREA COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY....ALTHOUGH
THE RISK IS LESS BECAUSE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
ALABAMA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL SEE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER NEXT
WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
OKULSKI
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 23Z.
23-06Z...EXPECT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND AFFECT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
PERHAPS UP TO 40 KTS AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LINE...MAINLY LESS THAN 30 MINUTES IN DURATION. EXPECT A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH...THEN TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE LINE WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING.
AFTER 06Z...THINK BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL END...BUT SOME ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER MAINLY NEAR KMEM AND KTUP. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE...DID
NOT TEMPO THIS ACTIVITY FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AT KMEM...KJBR...AND
KMKL ALONG AND NORTH OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KTUP SHOULD
REMAIN VFR.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 94 74 86 70 / 20 70 50 30
MKL 91 71 83 65 / 30 80 50 20
JBR 91 71 83 66 / 40 80 50 20
TUP 95 72 88 69 / 10 40 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 041721 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
121 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION...
HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS BLOWN OFF FROM CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO
VALLEYWILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT...ADVECTING
GREATER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE BEST LIFT FOR SHOWERS MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT WITH A MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AROUND 08-10Z. INSTABILITY AT
THIS TIME OF NIGHT APPEARS QUITE LIMITED...SO WILL JUST MENTION
SHRA WITH CB FOR NOW. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 15Z...AND WILL END PRECIP AROUND THAT TIME.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMEG 041616
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...
.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR OMAHA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
EAST FROM THE LOW INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S AT MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAIN CONCERN IN
THE MORNING UPDATE IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WSR-88D TRENDS SHOW TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE OTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY.
ANALYSIS OF LATEST 12Z NAM INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A MODIFIED AFTERNOON
SURFACE BASED PARCEL (94/68) RESULTS IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2300 J/KG...LI/S AROUND -6...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES. BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE DATA THINK THE
PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. TORNADIC POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO MINIMAL AT THIS POINT TO
JUSTIFY MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS THIS
LINE SLOWS DOWN AS IT SPREADS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS IN AN UPDATED HWO. WILL UPDATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT/S FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A H5 SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE 00 UTC GFS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS FOR EARLY JULY WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KTS AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT /DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SERVICE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SERVICE AREA COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY....ALTHOUGH
THE RISK IS LESS BECAUSE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
ALABAMA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL SEE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER NEXT
WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
OKULSKI
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCT CU AND BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT JBR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW...AND IMPACT MEM AND MKL. EXPECTING MVFR
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SHORT DURATION IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
CONVECTION. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN TEMPOS
DURING THUNDERSTORMS AS A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG. WINDS LIKELY WILL
TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. TUP
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 97 74 86 70 / 20 60 50 30
MKL 91 71 83 65 / 30 60 50 20
JBR 93 71 83 66 / 30 60 50 20
TUP 95 72 88 69 / 20 30 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 041402 AAA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1002 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK EAST THROUGHTHE DAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR AREA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTH WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ANY PRECIP WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KOHX 041328
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
830 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
LATER THIS EVENING...WAS LOCATED ACROSS NW MO THIS MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
THE OH RIVER. CLOUD DECK ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD AT A RATHER RAPID
CLIP. SHOULD SEE THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY AFTERNOON.
WAA IS STILL QUITE APPARENT THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE ADDED CLOUD
COVER. WILL STILL SEE THE MERCURY REACH THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS. A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MODIFY CLOUD WORDING AND INCLUDE MOSTLY CLOUDY
NORTH AND WEST. ELSEWHERE...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING CLOUDINESS TYPE
OF WORDING. REMAINDER OF FCST LOOKS OK.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KMEG 041138
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A H5 SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE 00 UTC GFS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS FOR EARLY JULY WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KTS AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT /DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SERVICE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SERVICE AREA COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY....ALTHOUGH
THE RISK IS LESS BECAUSE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
ALABAMA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSORMS ON MONDAY AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL SEE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER NEXT
WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
OKULSKI
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SCT CU AND BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SOME
GUSTS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT JBR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW...AND IMPACT MEM AND MKL. EXPECTING MVFR
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY SHORT DURATION IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
CONVECTION. ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN TEMPOS
DURING THUNDERSTORMS AS A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG. WINDS LIKELY WILL
TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. TUP
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 97 74 86 70 / 20 60 50 30
MKL 91 71 83 65 / 30 60 50 20
JBR 93 71 83 66 / 30 60 50 20
TUP 95 72 88 69 / 20 30 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 041111
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
711 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BELIEVE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF AT TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AS INSTABILITY LACKING. WILL INCLUDE
SHRA LATE...WITH JUST MENTION OF CB AT TYS AND CHA WHERE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER IS A BIT HIGHER. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
PERIOD ALL TAF SITES.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 040823
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
323 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A H5 SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE 00 UTC GFS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS FOR EARLY JULY WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KTS AND VEERING WITH HEIGHT /DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SERVICE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SERVICE AREA COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY....ALTHOUGH
THE RISK IS LESS BECAUSE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
ALABAMA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSORMS ON MONDAY AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL SEE HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER NEXT
WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
OKULSKI
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 12Z...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO EAST TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT.
LATE EVENING GOES IR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KS...ENTERING WESTERN MO. THE PRIMARY UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z. IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT...DROPPING OFF
THE OZARK PLATEAU. KJBR SHOULD SEE STORMS FIRST...LIKELY BY 23Z OR
OOZ. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE KMEM/KMKL TERMINALS AFTER
00Z. AIRMASS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
EVENING... SO STORM SEVERITY MAY LESSEN SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE KMEM VICINITY.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 97 74 86 70 / 20 60 50 30
MKL 91 71 83 65 / 30 60 50 20
JBR 93 71 83 66 / 30 60 50 20
TUP 95 72 88 69 / 20 30 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 040746
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
345 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS...SO BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE LATTER
PART OF TONIGHT PERIOD. WILL CARRY ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES FOR LATE TODAY. WILL GO CATEGORICAL
NORTHWEST...LIKELY ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF INSTABILITY FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT FORCING
AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXPECTED...WILL INCLUDE CHANCE THUNDER
ALL ZONES. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL STAY
CLOSE.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER TROF CONTINUES EASTWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND STAYED WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR THE EVENT WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. EVEN ADJUSTED TO
CATEGORICAL POP FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
CLOSER TO BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE WAVE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WAS ABLE TO
REDUCE COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT BUILDS STEADILY SOUTH OF
THE TENNESSEE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST FEATURING A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH MAX TEMPS JUST A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 67 81 65 85 / 10 60 70 40 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 65 79 63 83 / 10 70 70 40 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 86 65 77 64 85 / 10 70 70 40 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 82 61 77 60 82 / 10 70 80 50 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 040739
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
239 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES. MOST
OF TODAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. WE ARE STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH
NICE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE DAY...GRADUALLY THICKENING IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE GENERATING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY...AND THESE STORMS WILL BE
APPROACHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS
COULD BE A BIG PROBLEM BY FIREWORKS TIME IN OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CLARKSVILLE AREA. FOLKS IN THE NASHVILLE
AREA WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING AS WELL.
THERE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVER STORMS AS THE ACTIVITY ROLLS
IN...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
KY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS MID TN TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. POOLING OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SWATH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.25" OVER MID TN IS SHOWN BY THE
NAM AND GFS. WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1
INCH WITH THIS EVENT.
THIS WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...SO MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
DONE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WX. THERE WILL BE A SHOT
OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS COULD
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE AND A
WEAK WAVE COULD UNDERCUT THE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO WE
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 90 69 81 63 / 20 90 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 87 67 82 61 / 30 90 30 10
CROSSVILLE 82 66 76 60 / 10 80 70 20
COLUMBIA 91 70 82 63 / 10 70 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 93 70 83 63 / 10 60 50 20
WAVERLY 89 68 82 62 / 30 80 30 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
13
000
FXUS64 KMRX 040527
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
127 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BELIEVE MAIN PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF AT TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER END OF PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP TAFS DRY. COULD BE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 12Z...ESPECIALLY AT TRI...BUT
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
WILL KEEP TAFS VFR ALL SITE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 040455 AAB
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1155 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE NEARBY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT UNTIL THEN...ONE MORE QUIET WEATHER NIGHT CAN
BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
KNS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...A 1018 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT ANOTHER
RAIN FREE DAY TO THE MID SOUTH REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM CDT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF COAST UP THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN
THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BUT DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE NAM
SOLUTION IS THE QUICKEST BY FAR WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE
SLOWER END. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE TN/AR/MO/KY BORDER AROUND/AFTER SUNSET AND SPREAD
TOWARDS I-40 FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT
THIS POINT...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH IF UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMING TO AN
END BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 12Z...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO EAST TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT.
LATE EVENING GOES IR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KS...ENTERING WESTERN MO. THE PRIMARY UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z. IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT...DROPPING OFF
THE OZARK PLATEAU. KJBR SHOULD SEE STORMS FIRST...LIKELY BY 23Z OR
OOZ. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE KMEM/KMKL TERMINALS AFTER
00Z. AIRMASS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME LESS UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
EVENING... SO STORM SEVERITY MAY LESSEN SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME THE
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE KMEM VICINITY.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 97 74 88 / 0 10 60 50
MKL 67 91 71 85 / 0 20 60 50
JBR 71 93 71 85 / 0 20 60 50
TUP 67 95 72 90 / 0 10 30 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 040157 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
857 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. CURRENT FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK ON TRACK AND
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE NEARBY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT UNTIL THEN...ONE MORE QUIET WEATHER NIGHT CAN
BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
KNS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...A 1018 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT ANOTHER
RAIN FREE DAY TO THE MID SOUTH REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM CDT.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF COAST UP THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN
THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER NIGHT OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BUT DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. THE NAM
SOLUTION IS THE QUICKEST BY FAR WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE
SLOWER END. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE TN/AR/MO/KY BORDER AROUND/AFTER SUNSET AND SPREAD
TOWARDS I-40 FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT
THIS POINT...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH IF UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMING TO AN
END BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED AFTER 21Z...APPROACHING KJBR FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS TSRA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 97 74 88 / 0 10 60 50
MKL 67 91 71 85 / 0 20 60 50
JBR 71 93 71 85 / 0 20 60 50
TUP 67 95 72 90 / 0 10 30 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
