[top]
000
FXUS64 KAMA 040458 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1158 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THE COLD FRONT IS VISIBLE ON THE RADAR
IMAGERY APPROACHING SPRINGFIELD. THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT MASKED IN
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE A BIT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE SOLUTION FROM THE
PREVIOUS SUITE OF MODELS. THE 00Z RUNS ARE MORE IN LINE BUT STILL
APPEAR A BIT SLOW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KDHT/KGUY BY
10Z AND KAMA AROUND 14Z. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FROPA AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NAM
POINT SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW
CIGS AT KDHT/KGUY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. THE FAVORED LOCATION WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS FAVORS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN
CARRIED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUED
THROUGH 06Z AT KAMA. I WOULD NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ROLLING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFTER
00Z...SO I HAVE INCLUDED CB REMARKS AT KDHT/KGUY TO COVER THIS. VCTS
HAS ALSO BEEN CONTINUED AT KAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO IMPLY A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KTS. ITS FAR TO EARLY TO PINPOINT
WHEN/WHERE ANY OF THESE HAZARDS WILL OCCUR SO NO MENTION WILL BE MADE
AT THIS TIME.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR A LINE
FROM EAST OF HEREFORD TO LAKE MEREDITH AND BORGER...TO NEAR KLBL. WE
ARE EXPECTING NEW DEVELOPMENT TNGT...DUE TO POTENT H7 SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z SAT. INSTBY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...DUE TO RICH...DEEP MSTR. LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
SET UP TNGT OVER ERN ZONES...WHICH MAKES WRN ZONES FAVORED FOR TSTMS.
LOW-LEVEL MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED OVER WRN
ZONES NEAR SFC TROF...AND OVER NRN ZONES...ALONG AND AHEAD OF INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THUS...HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED OVER THE NWRN HALF OF
FCST AREA...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO EARLIER FCST.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
TROF THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KGUY...TO KDUX...TO KCVS.
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES SO
THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LAST PAST SUNSET. I HAVE
CARRIED VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT KAMA/KGUY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED TO REFINE THE TIMING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
SHOULD GENERALLY DROP TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.
ANOTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. I RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING OF 12Z AT
KGUY AND 13Z AT KDHT AND EXPECT THE FRONT TO ARRIVE AT KAMA AROUND
18Z. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THE PERIOD AFTER
18Z WITH A VCTS REMARK AT KAMA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND AHEAD OF MCV MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
MODIFIED UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA CLOSEST TO THE BETTER SHEAR ALOFT AND THE TRACK OF THE MCV.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP THE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
MOVE THIS WAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE CWA. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BE REALIZED. THERE COULD BE A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES FOR PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH COULD CUT DOWN ON THE
INSTABILITY DEPARTMENT...BUT IF THE JULY SUNSHINE PREVAILS...THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION HEAD THIS WAY.
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SO BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED BY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/03
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLUB 040454
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE REGARDS THE INCOMING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INDUCING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SH/TSRA
POSSIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CRITERIA WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
ISOLATED SH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. DEVELOPING ISOLATED
SH/TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS. THUS...HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CRITERIA WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AS INCREASING CHANCES OF SH/TSRA WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE STORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE WRAPPED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF UL HIGH
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO SINCE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING TREND ACROSS SWRN CHAVES AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORE NORTHERLY ACTIVITY IS PUSHING
THROUGH CENTRAL CURRY COUNTY ATTM AND COULD INTERACT WITH
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE BDRY TO INCREASE STORMS OVER OUR NWRN
COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. ON SATURDAY...MOIST LOW/MID
LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH 800-1200 J/KG CAPE AND 20 KT BULK SHEAR...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM...
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVENING OF THE 4TH...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE SAT NIGHT AS COMBINATION OF DECENT UPPER-
LVL DIVERGENCE FROM PASSING SHTWV/DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WITH PROGGED
PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/AND LOW-LVL FOCUS IN THE FORM OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT HVY RAIN WORDING OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW
AS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE SAT
NIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT STALL OUT IN OUR
AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY IS VERY
COMPLICATED...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED...AND THE AMOUNT
AND COVERAGE OF MORNING SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER. WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHED THERE SHOULD BE MORE S/W ENERGY TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SUN AFTN/EVE AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE FA...UNLESS THE LOW-LVLS ARE JUST TOO STABLE. WE MIGHT EVEN
SEE A BETTER SHOT AT A STRONGER MCS MONDAY EVENING...AS A RETURN
TO SE LOW-LVL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO BETTER INFLOW
OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR...BUT AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON THE ALWAYS
TOUGH TO FORECAST TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW. TEMPERATURE
WISE...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SUN/MON WHICH SHOWS
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90...OPTING INSTEAD TO FAVOR UPPER 80S GIVEN
THE EXPECTED MOIST CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH NW FLOW
WEAKENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE YET TO REALLY BUILD IN. TSTM
CHANCES MAY BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN ZONES AS CONVECTION
STRUGGLES TO MOVE EAST IN WEAK FLOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF STILL
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UPPER RIDGE TAKING HOLD OVER NM LATE IN THE
WEEK BRINGING WARM TO HOT /ECMWF SUGGESTS ALMOST 599 DAM HEIGHTS
AT H5 WHILE THE GFS IS LOWER/ CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 90 64 83 64 / 20 30 50 20 30
TULIA 69 90 65 83 65 / 20 30 40 20 30
PLAINVIEW 70 89 66 83 65 / 10 30 50 20 30
LEVELLAND 69 93 67 85 66 / 10 30 40 30 30
LUBBOCK 71 91 68 85 67 / 10 30 50 30 30
DENVER CITY 70 94 68 87 66 / 10 20 40 30 30
BROWNFIELD 70 93 69 87 67 / 10 20 40 30 30
CHILDRESS 73 94 70 88 69 / 10 30 50 30 20
SPUR 73 93 71 89 68 / 10 20 40 30 30
ASPERMONT 75 96 74 91 71 / 10 20 30 40 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSJT 040453 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1153 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...AT SPEEDS OF 3-6 KT TONIGHT AND
8-15 KT ON SATURDAY. THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO AREAS NORTH OF ABILENE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH...AT SPEEDS OF 3-6 KT TONIGHT
AND 8-15 KT ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE DIVERGED SOME WITH REGARDS TO
WHEN THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO W CNTRL TX. THE GFS NOW SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AS SOON AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES TILL SUNDAY.
THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN BETWEEN THE NAM-GFS SOLUTIONS...HOLDING OFF
ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES TILL SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS...I WILL MAINTAIN THE THEME OF THE GOING FORECAST
KEEPING IT HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE
NAM SOLUTION PANS OUT...HEATING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY
PUSH HIGHS IN THE BIG COUNTRY WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES. FOR NOW...WILL
GO ABOVE GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES AND LET THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT.
LACY
LONG TERM...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND A COOL FRONT
MOVING SOUTH WILL BRING POSSIBLE TSTM COMPLEXES TO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GOING WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND NAM IS
INDICATING HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWFA. LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN A HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 75 98 73 92 69 / 0 10 30 30 30
SAN ANGELO 74 99 73 94 70 / 0 10 10 30 20
JUNCTION 74 99 74 97 72 / 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEWX 040451 AAB
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AROUND 11Z NEAR I-35 TERMINALS THEN DIMINISH BETWEEN
13-14Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN SHORT-LIVED AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP NEAR I-35 TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT KDRT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR JULY 4TH AS THE INTENSE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES. HEAT INDICES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(BETWEEN 105-110) TOMORROW ALONG WITH MORNING LOWS NEAR 80 TO
JUSTIFY A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION..GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM COMSTOCK TO
BRACKETVILLE TO CATARINA. A DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING. MAYBE SOME
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK NEXT FRIDAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME
READINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 101 78 98 76 / - - 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 101 76 98 73 / - - 10 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 102 75 99 73 / - - - 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 76 96 73 / - - 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 103 78 100 76 / - - - 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 77 100 74 / - - 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 102 73 99 73 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 103 77 100 74 / - - 10 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 101 76 98 75 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 101 77 98 76 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 102 75 99 75 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
DIMMIT...KINNEY...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
13/11
[top]
000
FXUS64 KCRP 040435
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT
SOME LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF US281 DRG THE 10-14Z SAT PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA/MODELS DEPICT
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. RECENT GOES SOUNDER DATA
INDICATES THAT HIGH PW VALUES PERSIST...CONSISTENT WITH PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. LOCAL ARW/NAM PROG VERY LOW CIN VALUES OVR THE WATERS
AFT 06Z SAT. INTRODUCED ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE WATERS FOR THE 10-18Z
SAT PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AM EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM FREER TO
VICTORIA BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MODELS SHOW LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WITH CAP BUILDING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...SO
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...IF ANY. GFS...NAM AND
SREF MODELS ARE NOT PUTTING QPF IN THEIR OUTPUT FOR SATURDAY AND...
SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPS THINGS DRY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
SOLUTION ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A MAVERICK SHOWER/STORM POP UP.
WINDS ALSO PICK UP ON SATURDAY WHICH WOULD FURTHER HINDER DEEP
AIRMASS CONVECTION. DRYING CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANYTHING
THAT WOULD/COULD POP UP SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY 00Z SUNDAY. BETTER
GRADIENT DEVELOPING SHOULD MEAN MORE MIXING AND THUS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR SO. WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ON SATURDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP ANOTHER DEGREE FROM TODAY`S READINGS.
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...EXPECT WINDS BELOW SCEC
TONIGHT...THEN SCEC FOR THE BAYS/NEARSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING IN THE EVENING FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS THEN DYING DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR SCA IN A FEW LOCATIONS (PTAT2 AND BOB HALL
PIER) SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIDGING ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE
FLATTENS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...BUT STILL MAINTAINS ENOUGH OF AN
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY...EXPECT FOR A
STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. WINDS DO INCREASE HERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IN
THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH SPECIFICS...WITH THE
ECMWF SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE WEAKNESS BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MEXICO AND MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS. FOR NOW HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AWAITING SOME CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A SURGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEK...UNDERNEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NEW MEXICO.
THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND FASTER WITH THIS HAPPENING THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER. HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
(DAY 8). HAVE SHOWN 20-30 POPS HERE FRIDAY. CONTINUED PERSISTENT
WARM TEMPS ON THE HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DEVELOPING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 101 77 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 81 106 83 107 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 78 103 79 103 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 95 82 94 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 104 77 103 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 101 78 101 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 94 82 93 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
[top]
000
FXUS64 KFWD 040425 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAF SET. MAINLY EXTRA FCST GROUPS FOR WIND
SHIFTS 30 DEGREES OR GREATER/DIURNALLY FROM SSW DURING THE DAY TO S/SELY
AT NIGHT. EXPECT CI/CS TO DENSE UP BY 12Z/AFTER FROM OLD KS/NW OK CONVECTION
SPILLING SEWD DOWN WEAKENING UPR RIDGE. VFR...THOUGH DID ADD CB GROUP
AFTR 08Z SUN FOR D/FW AREA TAFS. ALL MODELS POINT TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT
SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER BY 06Z SUN/AFTER AND WITH SCT TSRA OCCURRING.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO PULL MENTION OF THUNDER OVER NORTHEAST ZONES.
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM KILLEEN TO ROCKDALE...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS.
UPDATED FORECAST AVAILABLE.
SCHULTZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
PARIS TO QUITMAN LINE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
104 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
RUNS CONTINUED TO PAINT A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN THAT IT LOOKED
LIKE WE WOULD SEE 24 TO 36 HOURS AGO. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND
QPFS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE IGNORED THE
CONVECTIVE BOMBS SHOWN ON THE GFS AND BLENDED PRECIPITATION
TIMING OF THE GFS AND NAM. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF ON
SUNDAY AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK...WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 101 75 93 73 / 5 5 30 40 30
WACO, TX 78 103 78 96 72 / 5 5 10 30 30
PARIS, TX 74 99 74 90 71 / 10 5 30 40 30
DENTON, TX 74 101 73 91 70 / 5 10 40 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 75 99 74 92 69 / 5 5 40 50 30
DALLAS, TX 83 101 78 93 74 / 5 5 30 40 30
TERRELL, TX 78 101 76 94 72 / 5 5 20 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 77 101 76 96 74 / 5 5 20 40 30
TEMPLE, TX 75 100 77 97 72 / 5 5 10 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/21
000
FXUS64 KCRP 040419
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1119 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA/MODELS DEPICT
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. RECENT GOES SOUNDER DATA
INDICATES THAT HIGH PW VALUES PERSIST...CONSISTENT WITH PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. LOCAL ARW/NAM PROG VERY LOW CIN VALUES OVR THE WATERS
AFT 06Z SAT. INTRODUCED ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE WATERS FOR THE 10-18Z
SAT PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AM EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM FREER TO
VICTORIA BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MODELS SHOW LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WITH CAP BUILDING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...SO
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...IF ANY. GFS...NAM AND
SREF MODELS ARE NOT PUTTING QPF IN THEIR OUTPUT FOR SATURDAY AND...
SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPS THINGS DRY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
SOLUTION ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A MAVERICK SHOWER/STORM POP UP.
WINDS ALSO PICK UP ON SATURDAY WHICH WOULD FURTHER HINDER DEEP
AIRMASS CONVECTION. DRYING CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANYTHING
THAT WOULD/COULD POP UP SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY 00Z SUNDAY. BETTER
GRADIENT DEVELOPING SHOULD MEAN MORE MIXING AND THUS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR SO. WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ON SATURDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP ANOTHER DEGREE FROM TODAY`S READINGS.
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...EXPECT WINDS BELOW SCEC
TONIGHT...THEN SCEC FOR THE BAYS/NEARSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING IN THE EVENING FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS THEN DYING DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR SCA IN A FEW LOCATIONS (PTAT2 AND BOB HALL
PIER) SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIDGING ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE
FLATTENS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...BUT STILL MAINTAINS ENOUGH OF AN
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY...EXPECT FOR A
STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. WINDS DO INCREASE HERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IN
THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH SPECIFICS...WITH THE
ECMWF SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE WEAKNESS BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MEXICO AND MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS. FOR NOW HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AWAITING SOME CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A SURGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEK...UNDERNEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NEW MEXICO.
THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND FASTER WITH THIS HAPPENING THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER. HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
(DAY 8). HAVE SHOWN 20-30 POPS HERE FRIDAY. CONTINUED PERSISTENT
WARM TEMPS ON THE HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DEVELOPING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 76 101 77 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 81 106 83 107 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 78 103 79 103 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 80 95 82 94 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 104 77 103 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 101 78 101 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 81 94 82 93 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHGX 040418
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1118 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM12 IS HINTING AT SOME LOW CLOUDS
AROUND 12Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMATTERING OF LOW CLOUDS
AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY. AN EARLY MORNING DECK ON SATURDAY WILL
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. SSW WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 102 77 102 77 / 10 10 10 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 100 78 100 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 92 82 93 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43
000
FXUS64 KAMA 040212 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
912 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...MAINLY NEAR A LINE
FROM EAST OF HEREFORD TO LAKE MEREDITH AND BORGER...TO NEAR KLBL. WE
ARE EXPECTING NEW DEVELOPMENT TNGT...DUE TO POTENT H7 SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z SAT. INSTBY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...DUE TO RICH...DEEP MSTR. LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
SET UP TNGT OVER ERN ZONES...WHICH MAKES WRN ZONES FAVORED FOR TSTMS.
LOW-LEVEL MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED OVER WRN
ZONES NEAR SFC TROF...AND OVER NRN ZONES...ALONG AND AHEAD OF INCOMING
COLD FRONT. THUS...HIGH POPS ARE JUSTIFIED OVER THE NWRN HALF OF
FCST AREA...WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO EARLIER FCST.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
TROF THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KGUY...TO KDUX...TO KCVS.
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES SO
THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LAST PAST SUNSET. I HAVE
CARRIED VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT KAMA/KGUY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED TO REFINE THE TIMING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
SHOULD GENERALLY DROP TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.
ANOTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. I RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING OF 12Z AT
KGUY AND 13Z AT KDHT AND EXPECT THE FRONT TO ARRIVE AT KAMA AROUND
18Z. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THE PERIOD AFTER
18Z WITH A VCTS REMARK AT KAMA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND AHEAD OF MCV MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
MODIFIED UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA CLOSEST TO THE BETTER SHEAR ALOFT AND THE TRACK OF THE MCV.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP THE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
MOVE THIS WAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE CWA. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BE REALIZED. THERE COULD BE A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES FOR PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH COULD CUT DOWN ON THE
INSTABILITY DEPARTMENT...BUT IF THE JULY SUNSHINE PREVAILS...THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION HEAD THIS WAY.
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SO BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED BY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/03
000
FXUS64 KHGX 040131
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE DEEPENING WITH EVENING PW VALUES AROUND
1.6-1.8 INCHES SUPPORTED BY 00Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE MODERATE TONIGHT BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S. LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAM/GFS DATA...CONFIDENCE IN
ANY MORNING SHOWERS IS LOW. ONSHORE WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
THE RIDGE OVER N TX IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SE TOMORROW AS WELL AND
DO NOT SEE WHERE THERE WILL BE ANY LIFT OTHER THAN MAYBE THE SEA
BREEZE FOR CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH THE CAP MAY BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY IMPROVE
SUN/MON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-10. NAM/GFS DO BRING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A SHORTWAVE INTO N AND E TX ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW 20
POPS SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH MAINLY NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH
MON/TUE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PENETRATES AND WITH THE STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE OR
TWO MAY PROVIDE GOOD LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SHOULD THIS PATTERN HOLD UP...SE TX MAY SEE SOME DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS. THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED.
PER LATEST CLIMATE...RECORD TEMPS WERE TIED AT BOTH CLL AND IAH.
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108F WERE EXCEEDED AT IAH AND A FEW OTHER
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS SE TX. AN UPDATED SPS WILL BE SENT TO
HIGHLIGHT HEAT RELATED HAZARDS AND POSSIBLY A HEAT ADVISORY BEING
ISSUED IN THE MORNING.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. HEAT INDICIES
AREAWIDE 100-106 AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT MIXED OUT AS MUCH AS
YESTERDAY BUT TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT BY 2-4 DEGREES AS YDAY AT
THIS TIME...PROBABLY DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RECORD
TEMPERATURES AT IAH/CLL STILL IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR REACHED
(7/3) FRIDAY (7/4) SATURDAY (7/5) SUNDAY
CLL 101/1990 103/1933 103/1939
IAH 100/1980 100/1970 99/2005
GLS 95/1875 95/1875 95/1875
REPEAT OF MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST A DECENT BET SATURDAY
OTHERWISE...HOT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 99-102 INLAND. UPPER RIDGING
OVER TX TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS S/W DROPS DOWN FROM NM/CO ON SUNDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD SKIRT THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA ON SUNDAY AND IF
THE VERY WARM SW SURFACE/LL FLOW DOES NOT CAP THE AREA AM
EXPECTING SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THE MODELS POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE S/W
AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY (NEARING THE 2.2-2.3" MARK) AND DEVELOP
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW SHOULD CARRY
BOUNDARY STORMS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AREA AGAIN IF THE CAP
ISN`T STRONG ENOUGH. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE CWA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH NOISY-S/W RIDDEN NW FLOW AND WEAKENED CAPPING. WILL
BE CARRYING 30 POPS FOR MONDAY NORTH EXPANDING SOUTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A WETTER PATTERN WHICH THE
AREA CAN CERTAINLY USE. TURNING A LITTLE COOLER THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN? UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AND SETX GETS INTO NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
AND THE WETTER PATTERN COULD MORE EASILY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PROGGING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK STRONG OVER THE NEW MEXICO AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERHAPS SOME AT LEAST SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY FINALLY BE ON THE WAY.
45
MARINE...
DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS RE-STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING
FOR A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A WELL DEFINED S/WV APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON SUN. AND STILL NOT AN-
TICIPATING WIND SPEEDS TO GO OVER SCEC CATEGORIES ATTM. CURRENT FCST
LOOKS TO HAVE THINGS WELL IN HAND SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 102 77 102 77 / 10 10 10 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 100 78 100 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 92 82 93 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBRO 040112
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
812 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PREVIOUSLY OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BRO CWFA NOW DISSIPATED...WITH
ANVIL DEBRIS SHIFTING RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST INTO MEXICO. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND UNIMPRESSIVE TROPICAL
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITHIN
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW APPEARS AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO OUR REGION AND MID-LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS FARTHER NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...AT 7 PM BUOY 20 REPORTED EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 16 KNOTS
WITH SEAS AT SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 2 FEET WITH A 6 SECOND PERIOD.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN
THIS WEEKEND AS PRESSURES LOWER ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FLAT SEAS OF LATE WILL RESPOND SLOWLY AND
GRADUALLY BUILD A FOOT EACH DAY PEAKING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
MODERATE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED STREAMERS MOSTLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. VFR
CONTINUES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH AN INCREASE OF SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SOME GUSTS COULD NEAR 25 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 81 95 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 79 97 / 0 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 79 99 79 99 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 79 100 79 100 / 0 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 102 80 102 / 0 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 91 81 92 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TOMASELLI-66
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...BOGORAD-59
000
FXUS64 KFWD 040013 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
713 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO PULL MENTION OF THUNDER OVER NORTHEAST ZONES.
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM KILLEEN TO ROCKDALE...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS.
UPDATED FORECAST AVAILABLE.
SCHULTZ
&&
.AVIATION...
SSE FLO 8-11 KTS OVRNGT...THEN VEERING SSWLY 10-15 KTSAHD OF APPROACHING
CD FNT SLATED INTO AREA BY 06Z SUN/AFTR. VFR CONDS THRU THE PD WITH
FEW-SCT CU DURING PM HRS. FEEL CD FNT AND TSRA CHCS WILL BE SLIM IN
THE 00Z-06Z SUN PD TO FOREGO ANY MNTN AT THIS TIME. WILL RE-EVALUATE
CB/TSRA MNTN ON 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...BUT AS OF NOW...CONFIDENCE IN EARLY
JULY IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING/COVERAGE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
PARIS TO QUITMAN LINE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
104 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
RUNS CONTINUED TO PAINT A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN THAT IT LOOKED
LIKE WE WOULD SEE 24 TO 36 HOURS AGO. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND
QPFS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE IGNORED THE
CONVECTIVE BOMBS SHOWN ON THE GFS AND BLENDED PRECIPITATION
TIMING OF THE GFS AND NAM. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF ON
SUNDAY AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK...WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 101 75 93 73 / 5 5 30 40 30
WACO, TX 78 103 78 96 72 / 5 5 10 30 30
PARIS, TX 74 99 74 90 71 / 10 5 30 40 30
DENTON, TX 74 101 73 91 70 / 5 10 40 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 75 99 74 92 69 / 5 5 40 50 30
DALLAS, TX 83 101 78 93 74 / 5 5 30 40 30
TERRELL, TX 78 101 76 94 72 / 5 5 20 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 77 101 76 96 74 / 5 5 20 40 30
TEMPLE, TX 75 100 77 97 72 / 5 5 10 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 032341 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR DISCUSSION ON 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH...AT SPEEDS OF 3-6 KT TONIGHT
AND 8-15 KT ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE DIVERGED SOME WITH REGARDS TO
WHEN THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO W CNTRL TX. THE GFS NOW SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AS SOON AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES TILL SUNDAY.
THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN BETWEEN THE NAM-GFS SOLUTIONS...HOLDING OFF
ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES TILL SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS...I WILL MAINTAIN THE THEME OF THE GOING FORECAST
KEEPING IT HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE
NAM SOLUTION PANS OUT...HEATING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY
PUSH HIGHS IN THE BIG COUNTRY WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES. FOR NOW...WILL
GO ABOVE GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES AND LET THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT.
LACY
LONG TERM...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND A COOL FRONT
MOVING SOUTH WILL BRING POSSIBLE TSTM COMPLEXES TO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GOING WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND NAM IS
INDICATING HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWFA. LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN A HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 75 98 73 92 69 / 0 10 30 30 30
SAN ANGELO 74 99 73 94 70 / 0 10 10 30 20
JUNCTION 74 99 74 97 72 / 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 032330 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN SHORT-LIVED AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP NEAR I-35 TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AT KDRT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR JULY 4TH AS THE INTENSE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES. HEAT INDICES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(BETWEEN 105-110) TOMORROW ALONG WITH MORNING LOWS NEAR 80 TO
JUSTIFY A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION..GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM COMSTOCK TO
BRACKETVILLE TO CATARINA. A DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING. MAYBE SOME
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK NEXT FRIDAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME
READINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 101 78 98 76 / - - 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 101 76 98 73 / - - 10 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 102 75 99 73 / - - - 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 76 96 73 / - - 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 103 78 100 76 / - - - 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 77 100 74 / - - 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 102 73 99 73 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 103 77 100 74 / - - 10 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 101 76 98 75 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 101 77 98 76 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 102 75 99 75 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
DIMMIT...KINNEY...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
13/11/JB
000
FXUS64 KAMA 032325 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
625 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE
TROF THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KGUY...TO KDUX...TO KCVS.
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES SO
THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LAST PAST SUNSET. I HAVE
CARRIED VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AT KAMA/KGUY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED TO REFINE THE TIMING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
SHOULD GENERALLY DROP TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.
ANOTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. I RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING OF 12Z AT
KGUY AND 13Z AT KDHT AND EXPECT THE FRONT TO ARRIVE AT KAMA AROUND
18Z. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED FOR THE PERIOD AFTER
18Z WITH A VCTS REMARK AT KAMA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND AHEAD OF MCV MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
MODIFIED UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA CLOSEST TO THE BETTER SHEAR ALOFT AND THE TRACK OF THE MCV.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP THE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
MOVE THIS WAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE CWA. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BE REALIZED. THERE COULD BE A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES FOR PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH COULD CUT DOWN ON THE
INSTABILITY DEPARTMENT...BUT IF THE JULY SUNSHINE PREVAILS...THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION HEAD THIS WAY.
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SO BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED BY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/03
000
FXUS64 KLUB 032322
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SH DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. DEVELOPING ISOLATED
SH/TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS. THUS...HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CRITERIA WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AS INCREASING CHANCES OF SH/TSRA WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE WRAPPED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF UL HIGH
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO SINCE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING TREND ACROSS SWRN CHAVES AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORE NORTHERLY ACTIVITY IS PUSHING
THROUGH CENTRAL CURRY COUNTY ATTM AND COULD INTERACT WITH
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE BDRY TO INCREASE STORMS OVER OUR NWRN
COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. ON SATURDAY...MOIST LOW/MID
LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH 800-1200 J/KG CAPE AND 20 KT BULK SHEAR...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM...
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVENING OF THE 4TH...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE SAT NIGHT AS COMBINATION OF DECENT UPPER-
LVL DIVERGENCE FROM PASSING SHTWV/DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WITH PROGGED
PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/AND LOW-LVL FOCUS IN THE FORM OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT HVY RAIN WORDING OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW
AS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE SAT
NIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT STALL OUT IN OUR
AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY IS VERY
COMPLICATED...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED...AND THE AMOUNT
AND COVERAGE OF MORNING SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER. WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHED THERE SHOULD BE MORE S/W ENERGY TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SUN AFTN/EVE AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE FA...UNLESS THE LOW-LVLS ARE JUST TOO STABLE. WE MIGHT EVEN
SEE A BETTER SHOT AT A STRONGER MCS MONDAY EVENING...AS A RETURN
TO SE LOW-LVL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO BETTER INFLOW
OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR...BUT AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON THE ALWAYS
TOUGH TO FORECAST TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW. TEMPERATURE
WISE...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SUN/MON WHICH SHOWS
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90...OPTING INSTEAD TO FAVOR UPPER 80S GIVEN
THE EXPECTED MOIST CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH NW FLOW
WEAKENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE YET TO REALLY BUILD IN. TSTM
CHANCES MAY BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN ZONES AS CONVECTION
STRUGGLES TO MOVE EAST IN WEAK FLOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF STILL
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UPPER RIDGE TAKING HOLD OVER NM LATE IN THE
WEEK BRINGING WARM TO HOT /ECMWF SUGGESTS ALMOST 599 DAM HEIGHTS
AT H5 WHILE THE GFS IS LOWER/ CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 90 64 83 64 / 20 30 50 20 30
TULIA 69 90 65 83 65 / 20 30 40 20 30
PLAINVIEW 70 89 66 83 65 / 10 30 50 20 30
LEVELLAND 69 93 67 85 66 / 10 30 40 30 30
LUBBOCK 71 91 68 85 67 / 10 30 50 30 30
DENVER CITY 70 94 68 87 66 / 10 20 40 30 30
BROWNFIELD 70 93 69 87 67 / 10 20 40 30 30
CHILDRESS 73 94 70 88 69 / 10 30 50 30 20
SPUR 73 93 71 89 68 / 10 20 40 30 30
ASPERMONT 75 96 74 91 71 / 10 20 30 40 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KFWD 032322 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
SSE FLO 8-11 KTS OVRNGT...THEN VEERING SSWLY 10-15 KTSAHD OF APPROACHING
CD FNT SLATED INTO AREA BY 06Z SUN/AFTR. VFR CONDS THRU THE PD WITH
FEW-SCT CU DURING PM HRS. FEEL CD FNT AND TSRA CHCS WILL BE SLIM IN
THE 00Z-06Z SUN PD TO FOREGO ANY MNTN AT THIS TIME. WILL RE-EVALUATE
CB/TSRA MNTN ON 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...BUT AS OF NOW...CONFIDENCE IN EARLY
JULY IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING/COVERAGE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
PARIS TO QUITMAN LINE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
104 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
RUNS CONTINUED TO PAINT A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN THAT IT LOOKED
LIKE WE WOULD SEE 24 TO 36 HOURS AGO. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND
QPFS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE IGNORED THE
CONVECTIVE BOMBS SHOWN ON THE GFS AND BLENDED PRECIPITATION
TIMING OF THE GFS AND NAM. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF ON
SUNDAY AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK...WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 101 75 93 73 / 5 5 30 40 30
WACO, TX 78 103 78 96 72 / 5 5 10 30 30
PARIS, TX 74 99 74 90 71 / 10 5 30 40 30
DENTON, TX 74 101 73 91 70 / 5 10 40 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 75 99 74 92 69 / 5 5 40 50 30
DALLAS, TX 83 101 78 93 74 / 5 5 30 40 30
TERRELL, TX 78 101 76 94 72 / 5 5 20 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 77 101 76 96 74 / 5 5 20 40 30
TEMPLE, TX 75 100 77 97 72 / 5 5 10 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/58
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMAF 032322
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA W OF CNM ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE WEAKISH LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP EARLY EVENING HOLDING SE WINDS NEAR 15KTS AT MAF/FST
THRU 06Z. SIMILAR PATTERN SAT AS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP INVOF
MTNS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER COMPONENT FOR SHRA/TSRA
TO DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS...THUS PROB30 AT CNM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THIS WARMING
TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN/SLIDE WEST. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A
STRONG MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY SE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MIGRATE SOUTHWARD...POSITIONING ITSELF NEAR CENTRAL OK THROUGH SE
NM BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE PROGRESSION AND REINFORCEMENT OF THIS
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTH WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE MOMENT
WE HAVE DECIDED TO STAY BELOW A MENTION OF LIKELY...BUT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN CWA IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. THE MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR MAGNITUDES NEAR
35 KT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY...WHERE
AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS
AND THE HILL COUNTRY REGION. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE GREATEST RAINFALL OCCURS/CLOUD COVER RESIDES. THE GFS IS
DEFINITELY WARMER SINCE THE MAJORITY OF ITS QPF OUTPUT STAYS EAST
OF OUR REGION. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING FASTER AND FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY SINCE TEMPS AND POPS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL...SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY SINCE WE WILL
BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO IMPACT THE REGION. AFTER THAT THE
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIKELY DOMINATE THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS...LIMITING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 032311 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AM EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM FREER TO
VICTORIA BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MODELS SHOW LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WITH CAP BUILDING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...SO
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...IF ANY. GFS...NAM AND
SREF MODELS ARE NOT PUTTING QPF IN THEIR OUTPUT FOR SATURDAY AND...
SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPS THINGS DRY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
SOLUTION ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A MAVERICK SHOWER/STORM POP UP.
WINDS ALSO PICK UP ON SATURDAY WHICH WOULD FURTHER HINDER DEEP
AIRMASS CONVECTION. DRYING CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANYTHING
THAT WOULD/COULD POP UP SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY 00Z SUNDAY. BETTER
GRADIENT DEVELOPING SHOULD MEAN MORE MIXING AND THUS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR SO. WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ON SATURDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP ANOTHER DEGREE FROM TODAY`S READINGS.
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...EXPECT WINDS BELOW SCEC
TONIGHT...THEN SCEC FOR THE BAYS/NEARSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING IN THE EVENING FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS THEN DYING DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR SCA IN A FEW LOCATIONS (PTAT2 AND BOB HALL
PIER) SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIDGING ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE
FLATTENS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...BUT STILL MAINTAINS ENOUGH OF AN
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY...EXPECT FOR A
STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. WINDS DO INCREASE HERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IN
THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH SPECIFICS...WITH THE
ECMWF SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE WEAKNESS BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MEXICO AND MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS. FOR NOW HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AWAITING SOME CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A SURGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEK...UNDERNEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NEW MEXICO.
THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND FASTER WITH THIS HAPPENING THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER. HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
(DAY 8). HAVE SHOWN 20-30 POPS HERE FRIDAY. CONTINUED PERSISTENT
WARM TEMPS ON THE HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DEVELOPING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 77 101 77 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 82 106 83 107 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 79 103 79 103 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 95 82 94 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 77 104 77 103 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 101 78 101 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 94 82 93 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JAR/19...AVIATION
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032131
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
328 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
THIS...WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE TO OVER
ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DECREASE THE LAYERED MOISTURE
BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN WARM BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CONSIDERABLE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH AROUND WEST SIDE OVER NEW MEXICO
AND EASTERN ARIZONA. FAIR BIT OF THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF NOW AS
MOST OF CWA WAS QUICK TO BREAK MORNING CLOUDS AND HEAT UP. STRONGEST
CONVECTION DOES SEEM TO BE LINING UP ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST AT UPPER
LEVELS...AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. WITH PW`S RUNNING ABOUT 170% OF
NORMAL AND STORM MOVEMENT RELATIVELY SLOW...ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
EARLIER AND STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWING HIGH
TRYING TO BEGIN RECENTERING PROCESS TO OUR WEST BUT MOISTURE PLUME
APPEARS TO BE UNPHASED BY THE PROCESS. SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
STILL LOOKS LIKE GOOD BET. IN FACT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR
SATURDAY AND COULD EVEN BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. MODELS DO SHOW PLUME DISSIPATING SOME ON SUNDAY SO
REDUCED POPS A BIT. HOWEVER MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME BACK DOOR
BOUNDARY INTERACTION SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THAN CURRENT
THINKING.
BY MONDAY RIDGE AND HIGH CENTER ARE OVER ARIZONA SO DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME ABATES...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE. HIGH THEN RECENTERS OVER NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. BOTTOM
LINE...LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL DIURNAL ACTIVITY SO KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEXT WEEKEND FOR
POSSIBLE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING TO THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW GFS
VACILLATING BACK AND FORTH ON THAT SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 04/0000Z-05/0000Z...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU MID
DAY SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD
EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS WILL BRING A DEEP STREAM OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
AND REDUCING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
50S TO MID 60S TOMORROW THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 74 92 72 93 70 / 50 30 30 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA TX 66 88 65 90 66 / 40 20 30 20 30
LAS CRUCES 71 91 69 93 67 / 50 30 30 20 30
ALAMOGORDO 68 89 67 92 65 / 40 30 30 30 30
CLOUDCROFT 52 67 51 68 49 / 50 30 30 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 89 66 91 64 / 60 40 30 30 30
SILVER CITY 62 83 61 85 60 / 60 40 30 20 20
DEMING 68 92 67 92 65 / 60 40 30 20 20
LORDSBURG 67 91 66 92 64 / 60 40 30 20 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ022-023-030>032.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PARK
000
FXUS64 KFWD 032045
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF
PARIS TO QUITMAN LINE. HAVE JUST MENTIONED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
104 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
RUNS CONTINUED TO PAINT A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN THAT IT LOOKED
LIKE WE WOULD SEE 24 TO 36 HOURS AGO. HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND
QPFS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE IGNORED THE
CONVECTIVE BOMBS SHOWN ON THE GFS AND BLENDED PRECIPITATION
TIMING OF THE GFS AND NAM. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF ON
SUNDAY AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK...WE WILL SEE A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 101 75 93 73 / 5 5 30 40 30
WACO, TX 78 103 78 96 72 / 5 5 10 30 30
PARIS, TX 74 99 74 90 71 / 10 5 30 40 30
DENTON, TX 74 101 73 91 70 / 5 10 40 40 30
MCKINNEY, TX 75 99 74 92 69 / 5 5 40 50 30
DALLAS, TX 83 101 78 93 74 / 5 5 30 40 30
TERRELL, TX 78 101 76 94 72 / 5 5 20 50 30
CORSICANA, TX 77 101 76 96 74 / 5 5 20 40 30
TEMPLE, TX 75 100 77 97 72 / 5 5 10 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/58
000
FXUS64 KHGX 032042
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. HEAT INDICIES
AREAWIDE 100-106 AT 3 PM. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT MIXED OUT AS MUCH AS
YESTERDAY BUT TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT BY 2-4 DEGREES AS YDAY AT
THIS TIME...PROBABLY DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RECORD
TEMPERATURES AT IAH/CLL STILL IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR REACHED
(7/3) FRIDAY (7/4) SATURDAY (7/5) SUNDAY
CLL 101/1990 103/1933 103/1939
IAH 100/1980 100/1970 99/2005
GLS 95/1875 95/1875 95/1875
REPEAT OF MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST A DECENT BET SATURDAY
OTHERWISE...HOT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 99-102 INLAND. UPPER RIDGING
OVER TX TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS S/W DROPS DOWN FROM NM/CO ON SUNDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD SKIRT THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA ON SUNDAY AND IF
THE VERY WARM SW SURFACE/LL FLOW DOES NOT CAP THE AREA AM
EXPECTING SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THE MODELS POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE S/W
AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY (NEARING THE 2.2-2.3" MARK) AND DEVELOP
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW SHOULD CARRY
BOUNDARY STORMS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AREA AGAIN IF THE CAP
ISN`T STRONG ENOUGH. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE CWA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH NOISY-S/W RIDDEN NW FLOW AND WEAKENED CAPPING. WILL
BE CARRYING 30 POPS FOR MONDAY NORTH EXPANDING SOUTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A WETTER PATTERN WHICH THE
AREA CAN CERTAINLY USE. TURNING A LITTLE COOLER THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN? UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AND SETX GETS INTO NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
AND THE WETTER PATTERN COULD MORE EASILY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PROGGING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK STRONG OVER THE NEW MEXICO AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERHAPS SOME AT LEAST SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT MAY FINALLY BE ON THE WAY.
45
&&
.MARINE...
DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS RE-STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING
FOR A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A WELL DEFINED S/WV APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON SUN. AND STILL NOT AN-
TICIPATING WIND SPEEDS TO GO OVER SCEC CATEGORIES ATTM. CURRENT FCST
LOOKS TO HAVE THINGS WELL IN HAND SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 102 77 102 77 / 0 10 0 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 100 78 100 78 / 10 10 0 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 92 82 93 81 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KLUB 032024
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE WRAPPED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF UL HIGH
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO SINCE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASING TREND ACROSS SWRN CHAVES AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORE NORTHERLY ACTIVITY IS PUSHING
THROUGH CENTRAL CURRY COUNTY ATTM AND COULD INTERACT WITH
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE BDRY TO INCREASE STORMS OVER OUR NWRN
COUNTIES. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. ON SATURDAY...MOIST LOW/MID
LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH 800-1200 J/KG CAPE AND 20 KT BULK SHEAR...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVENING OF THE 4TH...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM COMPLEX
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE SAT NIGHT AS COMBINATION OF DECENT UPPER-
LVL DIVERGENCE FROM PASSING SHTWV/DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WITH PROGGED
PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/AND LOW-LVL FOCUS IN THE FORM OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE AREA. HAVE KEPT HVY RAIN WORDING OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW
AS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE SAT
NIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT STALL OUT IN OUR
AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY IS VERY
COMPLICATED...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED...AND THE AMOUNT
AND COVERAGE OF MORNING SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER. WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHED THERE SHOULD BE MORE S/W ENERGY TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SUN AFTN/EVE AND LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
HAVE A DECENT SHOT OF STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
THE FA...UNLESS THE LOW-LVLS ARE JUST TOO STABLE. WE MIGHT EVEN
SEE A BETTER SHOT AT A STRONGER MCS MONDAY EVENING...AS A RETURN
TO SE LOW-LVL WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO BETTER INFLOW
OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR...BUT AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON THE ALWAYS
TOUGH TO FORECAST TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW. TEMPERATURE
WISE...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SUN/MON WHICH SHOWS
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90...OPTING INSTEAD TO FAVOR UPPER 80S GIVEN
THE EXPECTED MOIST CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH NW FLOW
WEAKENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE YET TO REALLY BUILD IN. TSTM
CHANCES MAY BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN ZONES AS CONVECTION
STRUGGLES TO MOVE EAST IN WEAK FLOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF STILL
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF UPPER RIDGE TAKING HOLD OVER NM LATE IN THE
WEEK BRINGING WARM TO HOT /ECMWF SUGGESTS ALMOST 599 DAM HEIGHTS
AT H5 WHILE THE GFS IS LOWER/ CONDITIONS WITH VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 90 64 83 64 / 20 30 50 20 30
TULIA 69 90 65 83 65 / 20 30 40 20 30
PLAINVIEW 70 89 66 83 65 / 10 30 50 20 30
LEVELLAND 69 93 67 85 66 / 10 30 40 30 30
LUBBOCK 71 91 68 85 67 / 10 30 50 30 30
DENVER CITY 70 94 68 87 66 / 10 20 40 30 30
BROWNFIELD 70 93 69 87 67 / 10 20 40 30 30
CHILDRESS 73 94 70 88 69 / 10 30 50 30 20
SPUR 73 93 71 89 68 / 10 20 40 30 30
ASPERMONT 75 96 74 91 71 / 10 20 30 40 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/33
000
FXUS64 KSJT 032021
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
321 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE DIVERGED SOME WITH REGARDS TO
WHEN THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO W CNTRL TX. THE GFS NOW SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AS SOON AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES TILL SUNDAY.
THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN BETWEEN THE NAM-GFS SOLUTIONS...HOLDING OFF
ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES TILL SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS...I WILL MAINTAIN THE THEME OF THE GOING FORECAST
KEEPING IT HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE
NAM SOLUTION PANS OUT...HEATING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY
PUSH HIGHS IN THE BIG COUNTRY WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES. FOR NOW...WILL
GO ABOVE GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES AND LET THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK AT IT.
LACY
.LONG TERM...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND A COOL FRONT
MOVING SOUTH WILL BRING POSSIBLE TSTM COMPLEXES TO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GOING WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND NAM IS
INDICATING HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWFA. LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN A HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 75 98 73 92 69 / 0 10 30 30 30
SAN ANGELO 74 99 73 94 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
JUNCTION 74 99 74 97 72 / 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 032017
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
317 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR JULY 4TH AS THE INTENSE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES. HEAT INDICES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
(BETWEEN 105-110) TOMORROW ALONG WITH MORNING LOWS NEAR 80 TO
JUSTIFY A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION..GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM COMSTOCK TO
BRACKETVILLE TO CATARINA. A DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING. MAYBE SOME
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK NEXT FRIDAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME
READINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 101 78 98 76 / - - 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 101 76 98 73 / - - 10 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 102 75 99 73 / - - - 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 76 96 73 / - - 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 103 78 100 76 / - - - 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 77 100 74 / - - 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 102 73 99 73 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 103 77 100 74 / - - 10 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 101 76 98 75 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 101 77 98 76 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 102 75 99 75 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
DIMMIT...KINNEY...MAVERICK...VAL VERDE...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
02/18
000
FXUS64 KCRP 032008
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
308 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MODELS SHOW LESS
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WITH CAP BUILDING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...SO
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...IF ANY. GFS...NAM AND
SREF MODELS ARE NOT PUTTING QPF IN THEIR OUTPUT FOR SATURDAY AND...
SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPS THINGS DRY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT
SOLUTION ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A MAVERICK SHOWER/STORM POP UP.
WINDS ALSO PICK UP ON SATURDAY WHICH WOULD FURTHER HINDER DEEP
AIRMASS CONVECTION. DRYING CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND ANYTHING
THAT WOULD/COULD POP UP SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY 00Z SUNDAY. BETTER
GRADIENT DEVELOPING SHOULD MEAN MORE MIXING AND THUS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR SO. WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ON SATURDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH TEMPS UP ANOTHER DEGREE FROM TODAY`S READINGS.
&&
.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...EXPECT WINDS BELOW SCEC
TONIGHT...THEN SCEC FOR THE BAYS/NEARSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING IN THE EVENING FOR ALL MARINE INTERESTS THEN DYING DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR SCA IN A FEW LOCATIONS (PTAT2 AND BOB HALL
PIER) SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RIDGING ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE
FLATTENS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...BUT STILL MAINTAINS ENOUGH OF AN
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY...EXPECT FOR A
STRAY TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. WINDS DO INCREASE HERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IN
THE BREEZY CATEGORY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
MODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH SPECIFICS...WITH THE
ECMWF SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE WEAKNESS BUILDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MEXICO AND MORE BULLISH WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS. FOR NOW HAVE
MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AWAITING SOME CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A SURGE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEK...UNDERNEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NEW MEXICO.
THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND FASTER WITH THIS HAPPENING THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER. HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL COME FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
(DAY 8). HAVE SHOWN 20-30 POPS HERE FRIDAY. CONTINUED PERSISTENT
WARM TEMPS ON THE HIGHS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS DEVELOPING
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 77 101 77 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 82 106 83 107 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 79 103 79 103 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 81 95 82 94 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 77 104 77 103 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 101 78 101 78 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 94 82 93 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KMAF 031959
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
259 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THIS WARMING
TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN/SLIDE WEST. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A
STRONG MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY SE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
MIGRATE SOUTHWARD...POSITIONING ITSELF NEAR CENTRAL OK THROUGH SE
NM BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE PROGRESSION AND REINFORCEMENT OF THIS
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL CWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTH WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE MOMENT
WE HAVE DECIDED TO STAY BELOW A MENTION OF LIKELY...BUT POPS MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN CWA IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE. THE MID TO UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTOR MAGNITUDES NEAR
35 KT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY...WHERE
AREAS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS
AND THE HILL COUNTRY REGION. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WORK WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE GREATEST RAINFALL OCCURS/CLOUD COVER RESIDES. THE GFS IS
DEFINITELY WARMER SINCE THE MAJORITY OF ITS QPF OUTPUT STAYS EAST
OF OUR REGION. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING FASTER AND FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY SINCE TEMPS AND POPS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL...SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES LOOK POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY SINCE WE WILL
BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO IMPACT THE REGION. AFTER THAT THE
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIKELY DOMINATE THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS...LIMITING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 74 99 75 91 / 10 10 20 40
CARLSBAD NM 71 96 71 89 / 20 30 30 20
DRYDEN TX 75 97 75 96 / 10 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 75 98 75 95 / 10 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 69 89 70 87 / 20 30 20 20
HOBBS NM 69 95 72 87 / 10 30 30 20
MARFA TX 62 90 63 87 / 20 30 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 98 74 91 / 10 20 20 30
ODESSA TX 75 98 74 92 / 10 20 20 30
WINK TX 75 100 76 96 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/78
000
FXUS64 KAMA 031936
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND AHEAD OF MCV MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
MODIFIED UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF CAPE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA CLOSEST TO THE BETTER SHEAR ALOFT AND THE TRACK OF THE MCV.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE UP TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP THE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
MOVE THIS WAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE CWA. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BE REALIZED. THERE COULD BE A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES FOR PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH COULD CUT DOWN ON THE
INSTABILITY DEPARTMENT...BUT IF THE JULY SUNSHINE PREVAILS...THEN WE
COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION HEAD THIS WAY.
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS. SO BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF OF
THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED BY THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 67 87 64 78 62 / 30 70 50 30 20
BEAVER OK 66 88 64 86 64 / 70 40 20 20 20
BOISE CITY OK 63 87 62 82 62 / 70 50 20 40 40
BORGER TX 69 88 66 81 66 / 40 60 30 30 20
BOYS RANCH TX 68 91 65 82 62 / 40 70 40 30 30
CANYON TX 67 88 62 76 60 / 30 70 50 30 30
CLARENDON TX 70 89 67 83 65 / 30 70 50 30 20
DALHART TX 64 89 60 81 61 / 60 60 30 30 30
GUYMON OK 67 88 64 83 64 / 70 40 20 20 30
HEREFORD TX 65 88 62 77 60 / 30 70 50 30 30
LIPSCOMB TX 69 86 66 83 64 / 60 50 30 20 20
PAMPA TX 68 85 65 80 65 / 40 60 30 20 20
SHAMROCK TX 72 87 70 86 69 / 20 60 50 20 20
WELLINGTON TX 73 91 71 89 70 / 20 70 60 20 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
07/15
000
FXUS64 KBRO 031922
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
222 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...SOME DECENT CONV FIRING OVER KENEDY COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLD TO SCT CONV WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. AFTER
TODAY...EXPECT THE CONV CHCS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN LATER THIS COMING WEEK WITH SOME STRONGER PV ADVECTING IN
TOWARDS THE TX COASTLINE ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY. THIS MID LEVEL
TROFFING LINGERS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHING WEST AWAY FROM THE BRO CWA AS THE 500 MB
RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS. WILL HANDLE THIS WILL SOME 20% POPS LATE IN
THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS RESOLVE THIS
SITUATION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS LOOKS
PRETTY STABLE WITH THE NAM TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE ON THE COOL
SIDE IN THE SHORT TERM. BELIEVE THAT THE NAM IS ERRONEOUSLY
GENERATING TOO MUCH CONV OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH IN
TURN LOWERS THE DAILY EXPECTED HIGHS TOO MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE TO MODERATE AND GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY INCREASE IN OR NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND
VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS MAY BE REDUCED TO TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AT NOON BUOY 20 REPORTED EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 6 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 8 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 1.6 FEET WITH A 4 SECOND PERIOD.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 81 95 / 20 10 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 79 97 / 20 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 79 99 79 99 / 20 10 0 0
MCALLEN 79 100 79 100 / 20 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 102 80 102 / 20 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 91 81 92 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...63
MESO...VEGA
000
FXUS64 KAMA 031758 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS MET AND CU FORMING QUICKLY ACROSS THE PNHDLS. MDT
CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG SUGGEST AMS MAY BE BUOYANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AT LEAST A MENTION OF VCTS IN TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WILL ALSO INCR POPS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS TOO. ADDITIONALLY...THE
HIGH THETA-E VALUES WITH MAXIMUM AXIS FCST TO MIGRATE TO A DHT TO
GUY LINE BY MIDNIGHT INDICATES TSTMS MAY PERSIST NOCTURNALLY SIMILAR
TO WHAT HAPPENED IN ERN NM LAST NIGHT. NEXT FEATURE TO ADDRESS IS
CDFNT WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE PNHDLS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS A GUY FRONTAL PASSAGE OF 12Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT KAMA TAF PUTTING IT JUST BEYOND THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS PSBL ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
MOIST AIR IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS STREAMING INTO THE PANHANDLES
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...BUT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING. SO DID NOT MENTION AND
PRECIP IN THE TAFS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE CB REMARKS STARTING AROUND 20Z AND
LASTING THROUGH 05Z. DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS
YET...BUT WOULD LEAN TOWARD KDHT OR KGUY FOR THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID
MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY BY 20Z.
JJB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST TX TODAY INTO EASTERN
TX BY THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE
PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PWATS STEADILY INCREASE FROM AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF INCH OR SO THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN AN INCH AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...THE EUROPEAN FORECASTING A
CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOURTH OF
JULY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN GRIDS
FOR NOW...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. DO NOT
FEEL THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW TO NONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
07/15
000
FXUS64 KCRP 031742 AAC
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE FIRST IS THUNDER POTENTIAL BEFORE 04/00Z.
THINK CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NOW RESTS WEST OF KCRP...SO THUNDER IS
MENTIONED AT KVCT AND KALI (HOWEVER...ONLY VCTS AS EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO BE QUITE ISOLATED). KEPT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER IN KLRD BUT
WILL MONITOR. AFTER 04/00Z...NO PROBLEMS AT KLRD AND KCRP (ANY
NON-VFR CIGS AT KLRD EXPECTED TO BE TOO SHORT-LIVED)...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALI (CIGS) AND KVCT (VSBYS) BETWEEN 11Z AND
14Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGES WERE TO THE GRIDS AND THESE WERE
GENERALLY MINOR...AND THAT CHANGE WAS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
EARLIER CONVECTION NORTHEAST WHERE 10 POPS WERE. SEEING A BIT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THIS SHOULD
DIE DOWN ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE. OVERALL FORECAST
SEEMS FINE AND NO ZFP WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION...BRIEF PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z
THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 15Z SATURDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE RECENT INFLUX OF HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WANE ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THE MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE FCST PD. TDA WL BE THE TRANSITION
DAY AS THERE WL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PWS 1.7-2.0
INCHES) TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. THE
LATEST GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT WITH A BAND OF PWS
BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AFFECTING THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TDA WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. THE MID/UPR
RDG AXIS WL CONTINUE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITS FIRM GRIP THROUGH THE
PD. WL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR JULY 4TH AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WL
CONITNUE TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE TEMP FCST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING W ACROSS MEX AS A
LOW DIGS ACROSS THE NE U.S. ON SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE IS PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS N TX AND TWD SE TX ON SUNDAY BUT NOT
MUCH IMPACT ON S TX WITH CONTD HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THRU MON. A
WEAKNESS ALOFT IS PROGD TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE E HALF OF TX
THRU MID WEEK. LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE HAS 40 POPS ACROSS VCT FOR
TUE/WED AS POOL OF 2 INCH PWATS MOVES SWD INTO THE NE CWA. MAIN LOW
LEVEL FOCUS WOULD BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO
SLIGHT CHC AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUN WAS DRIER WITH THE RIDGE MORE IN
CONTROL AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY THU
WITH THE GFS CONTG A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WHILE THE ECM SHIFTS IT FARTHER E THUS MORE DRY.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THURSDAY FCST. GENERALLY
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS HOWEVER MX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
TAD COOLER TUE/WED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. AS FOR WINDS...AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE...THERMAL LAND/SEA GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AND POSSIBLY BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE SRN BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
FCST PD. THIS ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT WL LEAD TO CAUTION
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
AND EVE. OTHERWISE...THE ONSHORE FLOW WL REMAIN GENERALLY 15 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WL AVG 1-2 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS GIVEN THE WEAKER
GRADIENT AS YOU PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 77 98 78 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 101 75 101 77 101 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 105 81 105 81 107 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 102 77 102 79 104 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 94 77 94 82 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 103 76 103 77 104 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 100 77 100 78 101 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 81 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KFWD 031725 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THROUGH TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-12 KTS. A FEW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING. ON SATURDAY...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
82/JLD
&&
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE LOOKING WETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HAVE NOT INCREASED THE POPS WITH THIS ISSUANCE BUT
WILL LIKELY BE DOING SO WITH THE 4 PM PACKAGE.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME IN WETTER
FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE SREF SHOWS SOME
LIKELY POPS...BUT I HAVE LEFT THEM AT CHANCE WHICH IS WHAT THE
GFS IS SHOWING. . ECMWF ALSO ON THE SAME PAGE...SO HAVE INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A WAVE MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH KEEPS POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NOW. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.
WARMING TREND RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND I HAVE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 102 80 100 78 93 / 5 0 5 30 30
WACO, TX 102 79 102 78 96 / 5 0 5 10 20
PARIS, TX 99 75 97 75 90 / 5 0 5 40 40
DENTON, TX 101 78 98 76 92 / 5 0 5 30 30
MCKINNEY, TX 101 74 98 74 92 / 5 0 5 30 40
DALLAS, TX 102 82 100 79 94 / 5 0 5 30 30
TERRELL, TX 101 77 99 76 92 / 5 0 5 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 101 76 100 76 94 / 5 0 5 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 102 76 100 77 97 / 5 0 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
000
FXUS64 KEWX 031717
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1217 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THE I-35
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH S-SE WINDS OF
5-15 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTURY
MARK THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE SLIDES
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GREATER MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SLIGHTLY MODERATED...BUT STILL
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPS AND TOO WET WITH DEWPOINT NUMBERS. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR
THAT...HAVE STAYED IN THE BALL PARK OF GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 101 77 101 77 / - - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 101 75 102 76 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 102 74 102 75 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 98 76 99 75 / - - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 101 77 101 79 / - - - - 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 77 99 75 / - - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 74 101 75 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 101 76 101 76 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 76 100 76 / - - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 78 101 77 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 101 76 101 77 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/18
000
FXUS64 KSJT 031710
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE BELOW FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX.
SERLY SFC WNDS AT KABI AND KSJT WILL GUST ABV 15 KTS AT TIMES TIL
00Z THIS EVENING. SFC WNDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN AT KABI AND
KSJT AFT 15Z SAT TO BTWN 15 AND 20 KTS DUE TO STRENGTHENING LEE
SIDE LOW PRES OVR CNTRL PLNS.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE BELOW FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS TEXAS WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 12KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY...WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING OVER TEXAS AND THE
850MB RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS. A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF
THE PANHANDLE DEEPENS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
LONG TERM...
NO STORMS FORECAST FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE 4TH...AS LEAST
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT HOWEVER IS INDICATED
BY GFS AND NAM MODELS TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FASTER...SO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1 AM FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...NORTH
OF I-20. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY IN MUCH OF THE
CWA AS THE WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...AND WITH LACK OF A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WENT DRY AND WARMER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 99 74 93 69 / 10 10 20 30 30
SAN ANGELO 72 100 73 96 70 / 10 10 10 10 20
JUNCTION 73 100 75 97 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 031646
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS CENTRAL NM APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING THE
AIRMASS A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEWEST GUIDANCE ALSO PROVIDING A BIT MORE
CERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS NOW PROGGED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE NRN CWFA BY MID-DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SATURDAY AFTN AS WELL. 26
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE LOW...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORM COULD APPROACH THE KLBB VICINITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. 26
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
STRING OF VFR TAFS TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT PUSHING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ONLY BY-PRODUCT OF THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...HOWEVER SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO SHOULD DRAW CLOSER
BY THIS EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES AN UPPER HIGH EASING ITS
GRIP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE SRN ROCKIES. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH THIS AFTN RESULTING IN
SOME CU...BUT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR PRECIP IS LACKING UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TRACK A CONVECTIVELY-
ENHANCED IMPULSE /POSSIBLE MCV/ NEAR OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF THIS
WAVE SOUTH OF THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO
WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY GIVEN A MORE VEERED SRLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
LONG TERM...
AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT PUSHES WILL BE ONE FACTOR IN DETERMINING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL PUSH
SOUTHWARD COULD BE AIDED OR MASKED BY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MOST MODELS
HOLD OFF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHICH UNFORTUNATELY COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNSET. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST INITIALLY BUT THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE 80S
WHILE KEEPING THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE MID 90S.
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE SANGRES AND FRONT RANGE SHOULD
HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH
THOSE STORMS TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE EVENING/NIGHT TIME HOURS.
STILL IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR THOSE
STORMS WILL BE BUT MODELS ARE HINTING THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
EVENINGS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TO ROLL INTO THE AREA.
ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR SOME OF THE COMPLEXES TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER AND ALSO DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.
HOW LONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STAYS AROUND IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE
AIR AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. FINALLY APPEARS
THAT BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION CHANCES AND HELP TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 90S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 67 88 62 83 / 20 20 30 40 20
TULIA 92 69 88 62 82 / 10 20 30 40 20
PLAINVIEW 93 69 89 63 84 / 10 10 30 30 20
LEVELLAND 93 69 94 65 86 / 10 10 30 30 30
LUBBOCK 95 71 92 64 85 / 10 10 30 30 30
DENVER CITY 93 68 97 67 90 / 10 10 20 20 30
BROWNFIELD 93 69 96 67 89 / 10 10 20 20 30
CHILDRESS 100 73 94 69 87 / 10 10 30 40 20
SPUR 95 70 95 69 89 / 10 10 20 20 30
ASPERMONT 99 74 100 73 87 / 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/99/33
000
FXUS64 KFWD 031642 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE LOOKING WETTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HAVE NOT INCREASED THE POPS WITH THIS ISSUANCE BUT
WILL LIKELY BE DOING SO WITH THE 4 PM PACKAGE.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY
WILL BE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WIND. WE EXPECT WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 KNOTS EARLY
TO INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE MIXING BEGINS
LATER THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 8 TO 13 KNOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME IN WETTER
FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE SREF SHOWS SOME
LIKELY POPS...BUT I HAVE LEFT THEM AT CHANCE WHICH IS WHAT THE
GFS IS SHOWING. . ECMWF ALSO ON THE SAME PAGE...SO HAVE INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A WAVE MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH KEEPS POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NOW. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.
WARMING TREND RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND I HAVE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 102 80 100 78 93 / 5 0 5 30 30
WACO, TX 102 79 102 78 96 / 5 0 5 10 20
PARIS, TX 99 75 97 75 90 / 5 0 5 40 40
DENTON, TX 101 78 98 76 92 / 5 0 5 30 30
MCKINNEY, TX 101 74 98 74 92 / 5 0 5 30 40
DALLAS, TX 102 82 100 79 94 / 5 0 5 30 30
TERRELL, TX 101 77 99 76 92 / 5 0 5 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 101 76 100 76 94 / 5 0 5 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 102 76 100 77 97 / 5 0 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
000
FXUS64 KCRP 031538 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1038 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...ONLY CHANGES WERE TO THE GRIDS AND THESE WERE
GENERALLY MINOR...AND THAT CHANGE WAS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
EARLIER CONVECTION NORTHEAST WHERE 10 POPS WERE. SEEING A BIT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING BUT THIS SHOULD
DIE DOWN ONCE THE SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE. OVERALL FORECAST
SEEMS FINE AND NO ZFP WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION...BRIEF PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z
THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 15Z SATURDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE RECENT INFLUX OF HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WANE ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THE MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE FCST PD. TDA WL BE THE TRANSITION
DAY AS THERE WL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PWS 1.7-2.0
INCHES) TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. THE
LATEST GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT WITH A BAND OF PWS
BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AFFECTING THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TDA WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. THE MID/UPR
RDG AXIS WL CONTINUE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITS FIRM GRIP THROUGH THE
PD. WL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR JULY 4TH AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WL
CONITNUE TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE TEMP FCST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING W ACROSS MEX AS A
LOW DIGS ACROSS THE NE U.S. ON SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE IS PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS N TX AND TWD SE TX ON SUNDAY BUT NOT
MUCH IMPACT ON S TX WITH CONTD HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THRU MON. A
WEAKNESS ALOFT IS PROGD TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE E HALF OF TX
THRU MID WEEK. LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE HAS 40 POPS ACROSS VCT FOR
TUE/WED AS POOL OF 2 INCH PWATS MOVES SWD INTO THE NE CWA. MAIN LOW
LEVEL FOCUS WOULD BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO
SLIGHT CHC AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUN WAS DRIER WITH THE RIDGE MORE IN
CONTROL AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY THU
WITH THE GFS CONTG A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WHILE THE ECM SHIFTS IT FARTHER E THUS MORE DRY.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THURSDAY FCST. GENERALLY
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS HOWEVER MX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
TAD COOLER TUE/WED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. AS FOR WINDS...AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE...THERMAL LAND/SEA GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AND POSSIBLY BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE SRN BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
FCST PD. THIS ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT WL LEAD TO CAUTION
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
AND EVE. OTHERWISE...THE ONSHORE FLOW WL REMAIN GENERALLY 15 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WL AVG 1-2 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS GIVEN THE WEAKER
GRADIENT AS YOU PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 77 98 78 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 101 75 101 77 101 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 105 81 105 81 107 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 102 77 102 79 104 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 94 77 94 82 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 103 76 103 77 104 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 100 77 100 78 101 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 81 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 031437
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE DAYTIME HEATING AROUND THE AREA IS INTERACTING
WITH THE MOIST ATMS (BRO PWAT OF 2.31 INCHES) TO PRODUCE BUILDING CU
FIELDS OVER THE BRO CWA. THE CURRENT RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONV IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
WILL LEAVE THIS IN PLACE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING FOR THE
MOMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
AIRPORTS. THE LOWER CONDITION IS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY INCREASE IN OR NEAR
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS MAY BE
REDUCED TO MVFR OR TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AT 8 AM BUOY 20 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 KNOTS
AND SEAS AT 1.6 FEET WITH A 5 SECOND PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MARINE AREAS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO
3 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...63
MESO...HART
000
FXUS64 KHGX 031436
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
936 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP. SW COUNTIES MAY GET SOME RAINFALL RELIEF
THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT CAP TO STRENGTHEN...WILL CARRY ISOLATED-
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-COLORADO COUNTY
AREA SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION THE WARM TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL
BE NEARLY AS REACHABLE TODAY AND HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR
TWO IN MOST AREAS BUT THE COAST. HEAT INDICIES SHOULD RUN 102 TO
107 MOST AREAS. MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE GULF MAY MOVE INTO THESE
SW ZONES TOWARD MORNING SATURDAY SO MAY SEE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
AGAIN TOMORROW IN THE SW ZONES.
EXPECT TO AT LEAST TIE AND MORE LIKELY BREAK THE RECORD AT BOTH
IAH/CLL TODAY...SEE THE RECORDS BELOW.
STAY HYDRATED.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
OTHER THAN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISBIES DUE TO LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WIND CREATING HZ/BR ACROSS KLBX/KSGR THIS
MORNING...STATUS QUO VFR AVIATION WEATHER PATTERN. W/V SAT SHOWS
THE REASON FOR THE CLEAR SKIES...DRY SWATH OF NORTHEASTERLY AIR
SETTLING DOWN UPON REGION. WITH INCREASING SFC PRESSURES AND THIS
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...VFR PREVAILS
INTO THE WEEKEND. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO ALMOST ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WILL CALL FOR INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND RECORD LEVELS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN A 102 TO
107 RANGE EACH DAY...AND WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HEAT. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE EVEN HINTING THAT A
PRETTY STRONG TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDE SOME BENEFICIAL
AND MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO OUR DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN
CHANGE...WE`LL HAPPILY GO EVEN HIGHER ON OUR POPS.
LOCATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR REACHED
(7/3) FRIDAY (7/4) SATURDAY (7/5) SUNDAY
CLL 101/1990 103/1933 103/1939
IAH 100/1980 100/1970 99/2005
GLS 95/1875 95/1875 95/1875
42
MARINE...
WEAK WINDS THE MAIN THEME PER RE-BUILDING WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP SUPPRESSED SEAS IN PLAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
LOWERED SOUTHERN TEXAS PRESSURES FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MAY
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH FROM MATAGORDA BAY DOWN INTO THE COASTAL
BEND REGION TO INITIATE A BRIEF SCEC. EXTENDED MODELS ARE ENHANCING
A CENTRAL GULF SE`ERLY FETCH. IF THIS PANS OUT THEN SEAS WILL INCREASE
BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO (UNDER SLIGHTLY HIGHER ONSHORE WINDS) BY THIS
TIME NEXT WEEK. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 104 77 102 77 102 / 10 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 101 78 100 78 100 / 10 10 10 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 93 / 0 10 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KMAF 031422
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
922 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERSISTENCE CONTINUES UNDER THE RIDGE...W/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...UNDER SE-S SFC FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED ALL TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE
TIME...W/SCT CU FIELD BASES IN THE 06-07KFT RANGE. LATEST NAM
CONFINES CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE MTNS...SO NO
MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...KCNM COULD SEE SOME CB
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
000
FXUS64 KMAF 031154
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
654 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS AT OR ABOVE 12KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A SCT DECK OF CU
THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CB AT KCNM AND
KFST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION TSRA AT
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE SHOTS SHOWING MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE WESTERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. OTHER THAN THAT...RATHER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ALL IN RESPONSE TO
AN EASTWARD MIGRATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES MOVING OVER
THE REGION. FEATURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TX BY
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THAT SAID...ANOTHER WARM DAY ANTICIPATED AS STAGNANT
LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE KANSAS HIGH PLAINS ENSURES
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM
THE WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FEATURE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. CO-LOCATED WITH THIS AXIS WILL BE A
MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP
ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM ACHIEVING WIDESPREAD SEVERE
LEVELS...HOWEVER FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
INVERTED-V TYPE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTION WITH BE RATHER
WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT OVER THE
AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES...HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW AS LACK OF
ANY APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SUGGEST ANY STORMS WILL BE
DEPENDANT ON INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THIS
EVENING AS A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MODELS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. FEEL ANY LINGERING AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER
WITH TIME. HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. BY TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXPECTED TO PROCEED THE FRONT. TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE SUGGESTING EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURFACES OUT WEST AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/WEST AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FRACTURE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE COMING DAYS. THESE COMBINED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF IN CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SUGGESTS
CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WEST TX MOUNTAINS...AND SE NM PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONCERNS BEGINNING TO ARISE
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ISOLATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SIMILAR SCENARIO
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...PWAT VALUES
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OVER 1.5"...SUGGESTING POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASED OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY. OBVIOUSLY MUCH TO BE
CONCERNED WITH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE
ABOVE LISTED SCENARIOS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
000
FXUS64 KHGX 031139
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISBIES DUE TO LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND CALM WIND CREATING HZ/BR ACROSS KLBX/KSGR THIS
MORNING...STATUS QUO VFR AVIATION WEATHER PATTERN. W/V SAT SHOWS
THE REASON FOR THE CLEAR SKIES...DRY SWATH OF NORTHEASTERLY AIR
SETTLING DOWN UPON REGION. WITH INCREASING SFC PRESSURES AND THIS
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...VFR PREVAILS
INTO THE WEEKEND. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO ALMOST ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WILL CALL FOR INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND RECORD LEVELS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN A 102 TO
107 RANGE EACH DAY...AND WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HEAT. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE EVEN HINTING THAT A
PRETTY STRONG TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDE SOME BENEFICIAL
AND MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO OUR DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN
CHANGE...WE`LL HAPPILY GO EVEN HIGHER ON OUR POPS.
LOCATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR REACHED
(7/3) FRIDAY (7/4) SATURDAY (7/5) SUNDAY
CLL 101/1990 103/1933 103/1939
IAH 100/1980 100/1970 99/2005
GLS 95/1875 95/1875 95/1875
42
MARINE...
WEAK WINDS THE MAIN THEME PER RE-BUILDING WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP SUPPRESSED SEAS IN PLAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
LOWERED SOUTHERN TEXAS PRESSURES FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MAY
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH FROM MATAGORDA BAY DOWN INTO THE COASTAL
BEND REGION TO INITIATE A BRIEF SCEC. EXTENDED MODELS ARE ENHANCING
A CENTRAL GULF SE`ERLY FETCH. IF THIS PANS OUT THEN SEAS WILL INCREASE
BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO (UNDER SLIGHTLY HIGHER ONSHORE WINDS) BY THIS
TIME NEXT WEEK. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 102 77 102 77 102 / 10 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 100 78 100 78 100 / 10 10 10 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 93 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KLUB 031138
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
STRING OF VFR TAFS TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT PUSHING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ONLY BY-PRODUCT OF THIS
TRANSITION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...HOWEVER SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO SHOULD DRAW CLOSER
BY THIS EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES AN UPPER HIGH EASING ITS
GRIP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE SRN ROCKIES. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH THIS AFTN RESULTING IN
SOME CU...BUT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR PRECIP IS LACKING UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TRACK A CONVECTIVELY-
ENHANCED IMPULSE /POSSIBLE MCV/ NEAR OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF THIS
WAVE SOUTH OF THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO
WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY GIVEN A MORE VEERED SRLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
LONG TERM...
AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT PUSHES WILL BE ONE FACTOR IN DETERMINING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL PUSH
SOUTHWARD COULD BE AIDED OR MASKED BY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MOST MODELS
HOLD OFF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHICH UNFORTUNATELY COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNSET. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST INITIALLY BUT THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE 80S
WHILE KEEPING THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE MID 90S.
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE SANGRES AND FRONT RANGE SHOULD
HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH
THOSE STORMS TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE EVENING/NIGHT TIME HOURS.
STILL IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR THOSE
STORMS WILL BE BUT MODELS ARE HINTING THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
EVENINGS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TO ROLL INTO THE AREA.
ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR SOME OF THE COMPLEXES TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER AND ALSO DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.
HOW LONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STAYS AROUND IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE
AIR AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. FINALLY APPEARS
THAT BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION CHANCES AND HELP TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 90S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 67 88 62 83 / 10 20 30 40 20
TULIA 92 69 88 62 82 / 10 10 20 40 20
PLAINVIEW 93 69 89 63 84 / 10 10 20 30 20
LEVELLAND 93 69 94 65 86 / 10 10 20 30 30
LUBBOCK 95 71 92 64 85 / 10 10 20 30 30
DENVER CITY 93 68 97 67 90 / 10 10 20 20 30
BROWNFIELD 93 69 96 67 89 / 10 10 20 20 30
CHILDRESS 100 73 94 69 87 / 10 10 20 40 20
SPUR 95 70 95 69 89 / 10 10 20 20 30
ASPERMONT 99 74 100 73 87 / 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
000
FXUS64 KAMA 031123 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
MOIST AIR IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS STREAMING INTO THE PANHANDLES
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ARE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLES...BUT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING. SO DID NOT MENTION AND
PRECIP IN THE TAFS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE CB REMARKS STARTING AROUND 20Z AND
LASTING THROUGH 05Z. DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS
YET...BUT WOULD LEAN TOWARD KDHT OR KGUY FOR THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID
MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 KNOTS POSSIBLY BY 20Z.
JJB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST TX TODAY INTO EASTERN
TX BY THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE
PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PWATS STEADILY INCREASE FROM AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF INCH OR SO THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN AN INCH AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...THE EUROPEAN FORECASTING A
CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOURTH OF
JULY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN GRIDS
FOR NOW...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. DO NOT
FEEL THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW TO NONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/11
000
FXUS64 KCRP 031109
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
609 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z
THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 15Z SATURDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE RECENT INFLUX OF HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WANE ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THE MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE FCST PD. TDA WL BE THE TRANSITION
DAY AS THERE WL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PWS 1.7-2.0
INCHES) TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. THE
LATEST GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT WITH A BAND OF PWS
BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AFFECTING THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TDA WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. THE MID/UPR
RDG AXIS WL CONTINUE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITS FIRM GRIP THROUGH THE
PD. WL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR JULY 4TH AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WL
CONITNUE TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE TEMP FCST.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING W ACROSS MEX AS A
LOW DIGS ACROSS THE NE U.S. ON SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE IS PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS N TX AND TWD SE TX ON SUNDAY BUT NOT
MUCH IMPACT ON S TX WITH CONTD HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THRU MON. A
WEAKNESS ALOFT IS PROGD TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE E HALF OF TX
THRU MID WEEK. LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE HAS 40 POPS ACROSS VCT FOR
TUE/WED AS POOL OF 2 INCH PWATS MOVES SWD INTO THE NE CWA. MAIN LOW
LEVEL FOCUS WOULD BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO
SLIGHT CHC AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUN WAS DRIER WITH THE RIDGE MORE IN
CONTROL AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY THU
WITH THE GFS CONTG A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WHILE THE ECM SHIFTS IT FARTHER E THUS MORE DRY.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THURSDAY FCST. GENERALLY
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS HOWEVER MX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
TAD COOLER TUE/WED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. AS FOR WINDS...AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE...THERMAL LAND/SEA GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AND POSSIBLY BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE SRN BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
FCST PD. THIS ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT WL LEAD TO CAUTION
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
AND EVE. OTHERWISE...THE ONSHORE FLOW WL REMAIN GENERALLY 15 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WL AVG 1-2 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS GIVEN THE WEAKER
GRADIENT AS YOU PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 77 98 78 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 101 75 101 77 101 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 105 81 105 81 107 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 102 77 102 79 104 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 94 77 94 82 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 103 76 103 77 104 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 100 77 100 78 101 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 81 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB
000
FXUS64 KEWX 031107
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
607 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
S CENTRAL TX FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY S-SE WINDS AT 5 TO
15 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTURY
MARK THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE SLIDES
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GREATER MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SLIGHTLY MODERATED...BUT STILL
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPS AND TOO WET WITH DEWPOINT NUMBERS. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR
THAT...HAVE STAYED IN THE BALL PARK OF GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 102 79 101 77 101 / 0 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 102 76 101 75 102 / 0 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 102 75 102 74 102 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 98 76 99 / 0 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 101 77 101 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 100 77 99 / 0 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 101 74 101 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 101 76 101 76 101 / 0 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 77 99 76 100 / - - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 77 100 78 101 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 101 76 101 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/01
000
FXUS64 KFWD 031042 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY
WILL BE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WIND. WE EXPECT WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 KNOTS EARLY
TO INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE MIXING BEGINS
LATER THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 8 TO 13 KNOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME IN WETTER
FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE SREF SHOWS SOME
LIKELY POPS...BUT I HAVE LEFT THEM AT CHANCE WHICH IS WHAT THE
GFS IS SHOWING. . ECMWF ALSO ON THE SAME PAGE...SO HAVE INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A WAVE MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH KEEPS POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NOW. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.
WARMING TREND RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND I HAVE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 102 80 100 78 93 / 5 0 5 30 30
WACO, TX 100 79 102 78 96 / 5 0 5 10 20
PARIS, TX 99 75 97 75 90 / 5 0 5 40 40
DENTON, TX 100 78 98 76 92 / 5 0 5 30 30
MCKINNEY, TX 101 74 98 74 92 / 5 0 5 30 40
DALLAS, TX 102 82 100 79 94 / 5 0 5 30 30
TERRELL, TX 101 77 99 76 92 / 5 0 5 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 101 76 100 76 94 / 5 0 5 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 102 76 100 77 97 / 5 0 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/84
000
FXUS64 KSJT 031041
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
541 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE BELOW FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS TEXAS WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 12KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY...WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING OVER TEXAS AND THE
850MB RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS. A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF
THE PANHANDLE DEEPENS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
LONG TERM...
NO STORMS FORECAST FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE 4TH...AS LEAST
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT HOWEVER IS INDICATED
BY GFS AND NAM MODELS TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FASTER...SO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1 AM FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...NORTH
OF I-20. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY IN MUCH OF THE
CWA AS THE WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...AND WITH LACK OF A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WENT DRY AND WARMER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 98 73 99 74 93 / 0 10 10 20 30
SAN ANGELO 99 72 100 73 96 / 0 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 97 73 100 75 97 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/12
000
FXUS64 KLUB 030922
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
422 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES AN UPPER HIGH EASING ITS
GRIP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE SRN ROCKIES. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH THIS AFTN RESULTING IN
SOME CU...BUT BACKGROUND FORCING FOR PRECIP IS LACKING UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TRACK A CONVECTIVELY-
ENHANCED IMPULSE /POSSIBLE MCV/ NEAR OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF THIS
WAVE SOUTH OF THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO
WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY GIVEN A MORE VEERED SRLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM...
AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT PUSHES WILL BE ONE FACTOR IN DETERMINING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL PUSH
SOUTHWARD COULD BE AIDED OR MASKED BY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MOST MODELS
HOLD OFF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHICH UNFORTUNATELY COULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNSET. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST INITIALLY BUT THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE 80S
WHILE KEEPING THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE MID 90S.
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE SANGRES AND FRONT RANGE SHOULD
HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH
THOSE STORMS TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE EVENING/NIGHT TIME HOURS.
STILL IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR THOSE
STORMS WILL BE BUT MODELS ARE HINTING THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
EVENINGS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TO ROLL INTO THE AREA.
ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR SOME OF THE COMPLEXES TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER AND ALSO DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION.
HOW LONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STAYS AROUND IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE
AIR AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. FINALLY APPEARS
THAT BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR ENOUGH EAST TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION CHANCES AND HELP TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 90S.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 67 88 62 83 / 10 20 30 40 20
TULIA 92 69 88 62 82 / 10 10 20 40 20
PLAINVIEW 93 69 89 63 84 / 10 10 20 30 20
LEVELLAND 93 69 94 65 86 / 10 10 20 30 30
LUBBOCK 95 71 92 64 85 / 10 10 20 30 30
DENVER CITY 93 68 97 67 90 / 10 10 20 20 30
BROWNFIELD 93 69 96 67 89 / 10 10 20 20 30
CHILDRESS 100 73 94 69 87 / 10 10 20 40 20
SPUR 95 70 95 69 89 / 10 10 20 20 30
ASPERMONT 99 74 100 73 87 / 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 030918
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
318 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL OCCUR EACH DAY. LOCALIZED
FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
RESULTING FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMALS TODAY AND SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH WARM DAY TIME TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS OCCURRING FROM A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND SATURDAY. WITH VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING
AROUND A 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS. SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES
AND ARROYOS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ROAD
WAYS IS POSSIBLE...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE SITUATION SHOULD BE
MONITORED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION
AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL BE PUSH MORE TO THE SOUTH BY THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TO CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH ALOFT WILL CAUSE DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMALS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
100 DEGREE DAYS FOR THE LOWLAND DESERTS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 03/1200Z-04/1200Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBY AND LOWER CIGS INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY IN AND NEAR STORMS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAY
OBSCURE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH HUMIDITY
AND BELOW NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL START TO OCCUR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. DECENT OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERY IS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A LAYER OF
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 92 73 92 73 95 / 30 40 30 30 20
SIERRA BLANCA TX 89 65 88 65 92 / 30 30 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 92 70 91 70 95 / 30 40 30 30 20
ALAMOGORDO 91 67 89 67 94 / 40 30 30 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 68 49 67 49 70 / 50 40 40 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 90 66 89 66 93 / 40 40 30 30 20
SILVER CITY 83 61 84 61 86 / 40 40 30 30 20
DEMING 92 67 92 67 94 / 40 40 30 30 20
LORDSBURG 91 66 91 66 94 / 40 40 30 30 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04
000
FXUS64 KHGX 030904
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO ALMOST ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WILL CALL FOR INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND RECORD LEVELS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN A 102 TO
107 RANGE EACH DAY...AND WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HEAT. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AREA. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE EVEN HINTING THAT A
PRETTY STRONG TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDE SOME BENEFICIAL
AND MUCH NEEDED RAINS TO OUR DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN
CHANGE...WE`LL HAPPILY GO EVEN HIGHER ON OUR POPS.
LOCATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR REACHED
(7/3) FRIDAY (7/4) SATURDAY (7/5) SUNDAY
CLL 101/1990 103/1933 103/1939
IAH 100/1980 100/1970 99/2005
GLS 95/1875 95/1875 95/1875
42
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK WINDS THE MAIN THEME PER RE-BUILDING WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP SUPPRESSED SEAS IN PLAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
LOWERED SOUTHERN TEXAS PRESSURES FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MAY
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH FROM MATAGORDA BAY DOWN INTO THE COASTAL
BEND REGION TO INITIATE A BRIEF SCEC. EXTENDED MODELS ARE ENHANCING
A CENTRAL GULF SE`ERLY FETCH. IF THIS PANS OUT THEN SEAS WILL INCREASE
BY ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO (UNDER SLIGHTLY HIGHER ONSHORE WINDS) BY THIS
TIME NEXT WEEK. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 102 77 102 77 102 / 10 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 100 78 100 78 100 / 10 10 10 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 93 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KMAF 030903
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
403 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE SHOTS SHOWING MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE WESTERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. OTHER THAN THAT...RATHER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ALL IN RESPONSE TO
AN EASTWARD MIGRATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES MOVING OVER
THE REGION. FEATURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TX BY
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THAT SAID...ANOTHER WARM DAY ANTICIPATED AS STAGNANT
LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE KANSAS HIGH PLAINS ENSURES
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM
THE WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FEATURE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. CO-LOCATED WITH THIS AXIS WILL BE A
MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP
ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM ACHIEVING WIDESPREAD SEVERE
LEVELS...HOWEVER FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
INVERTED-V TYPE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS. COMPLICATING THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTION WITH BE RATHER
WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PRESENT OVER THE
AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES...HOWEVER OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW AS LACK OF
ANY APPRECIABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SUGGEST ANY STORMS WILL BE
DEPENDANT ON INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THIS
EVENING AS A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MODELS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. FEEL ANY LINGERING AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER
WITH TIME. HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. BY TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXPECTED TO PROCEED THE FRONT. TROUGH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE SUGGESTING EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURFACES OUT WEST AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/WEST AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FRACTURE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE COMING DAYS. THESE COMBINED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT AND AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF IN CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SUGGESTS
CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN...WEST TX MOUNTAINS...AND SE NM PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONCERNS BEGINNING TO ARISE
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ISOLATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SIMILAR SCENARIO
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS BECOMES ALIGNED
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...PWAT VALUES
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO OVER 1.5"...SUGGESTING POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASED OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY. OBVIOUSLY MUCH TO BE
CONCERNED WITH THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE
ABOVE LISTED SCENARIOS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 96 73 97 73 / 0 10 10 20
CARLSBAD NM 95 71 95 69 / 20 10 20 20
DRYDEN TX 95 74 98 73 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 96 73 99 73 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 88 67 90 68 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 96 70 96 70 / 10 10 20 20
MARFA TX 89 62 91 62 / 20 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 73 97 72 / 10 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 97 74 98 72 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 100 74 101 74 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
32/06
000
FXUS64 KEWX 030901
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTURY
MARK THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POP UP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE SLIDES
TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES
OUT OF THE AREA. THE GREATER MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SLIGHTLY MODERATED...BUT STILL
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPS AND TOO WET WITH DEWPOINT NUMBERS. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING FOR
THAT...HAVE STAYED IN THE BALL PARK OF GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 102 79 101 77 101 / 0 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 102 76 101 75 102 / 0 - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 102 75 102 74 102 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 98 76 99 / 0 - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 101 77 101 / 10 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 100 77 99 / 0 - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 101 74 101 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 101 76 101 76 101 / 0 - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 77 99 76 100 / - - - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 77 100 78 101 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 101 76 101 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/01
000
FXUS64 KCRP 030853
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE RECENT INFLUX OF HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WANE ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THE MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGH THE FCST PD. TDA WL BE THE TRANSITION
DAY AS THERE WL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PWS 1.7-2.0
INCHES) TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE. THE
LATEST GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY BEARS THIS OUT WITH A BAND OF PWS
BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AFFECTING THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TDA WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. THE MID/UPR
RDG AXIS WL CONTINUE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITS FIRM GRIP THROUGH THE
PD. WL GO WITH A DRY FCST FOR JULY 4TH AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. WL
CONITNUE TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE TEMP FCST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING W ACROSS MEX AS A
LOW DIGS ACROSS THE NE U.S. ON SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE IS PROGD TO MV SE ACROSS N TX AND TWD SE TX ON SUNDAY BUT NOT
MUCH IMPACT ON S TX WITH CONTD HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THRU MON. A
WEAKNESS ALOFT IS PROGD TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE E HALF OF TX
THRU MID WEEK. LATEST GFS MEX GUIDANCE HAS 40 POPS ACROSS VCT FOR
TUE/WED AS POOL OF 2 INCH PWATS MOVES SWD INTO THE NE CWA. MAIN LOW
LEVEL FOCUS WOULD BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO
SLIGHT CHC AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUN WAS DRIER WITH THE RIDGE MORE IN
CONTROL AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY THU
WITH THE GFS CONTG A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WHILE THE ECM SHIFTS IT FARTHER E THUS MORE DRY.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THURSDAY FCST. GENERALLY
WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS HOWEVER MX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
TAD COOLER TUE/WED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. AS FOR WINDS...AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE...THERMAL LAND/SEA GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
AFTERNOONS AND POSSIBLY BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE SRN BAYS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
FCST PD. THIS ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT WL LEAD TO CAUTION
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
AND EVE. OTHERWISE...THE ONSHORE FLOW WL REMAIN GENERALLY 15 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WL AVG 1-2 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS GIVEN THE WEAKER
GRADIENT AS YOU PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 77 98 78 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 101 75 101 77 101 / 20 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 105 81 105 81 107 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 102 77 102 79 104 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 94 77 94 82 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 103 76 103 77 104 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 100 77 100 78 101 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 93 80 93 81 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KSJT 030845
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING OVER TEXAS AND THE
850MB RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS. A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF
THE PANHANDLE DEEPENS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
.LONG TERM...
NO STORMS FORECAST FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE 4TH...AS LEAST
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT HOWEVER IS INDICATED
BY GFS AND NAM MODELS TO MOVE IN A LITTLE FASTER...SO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1 AM FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...NORTH
OF I-20. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY IN MUCH OF THE
CWA AS THE WEAK FRONT DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK...AND WITH LACK OF A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WENT DRY AND WARMER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 98 73 99 74 93 / 0 0 10 20 30
SAN ANGELO 99 72 100 73 96 / 0 0 10 10 10
JUNCTION 97 73 100 75 97 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS64 KAMA 030837
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
337 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST TX TODAY INTO EASTERN
TX BY THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE
PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PWATS STEADILY INCREASE FROM AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF INCH OR SO THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN AN INCH AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS
INDICATING DRIER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...THE EUROPEAN FORECASTING A
CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP. WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOURTH OF
JULY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN GRIDS
FOR NOW...BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. DO NOT
FEEL THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW TO NONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 93 66 86 63 79 / 5 20 30 40 50
BEAVER OK 102 71 86 62 84 / 5 30 20 30 30
BOISE CITY OK 93 64 87 61 82 / 10 30 20 30 30
BORGER TX 97 71 86 65 81 / 5 20 30 40 50
BOYS RANCH TX 98 66 88 62 81 / 5 20 30 40 50
CANYON TX 93 65 86 63 81 / 5 20 30 40 50
CLARENDON TX 96 70 87 65 82 / 5 10 30 50 40
DALHART TX 95 64 86 60 80 / 5 20 30 30 50
GUYMON OK 98 68 87 62 81 / 5 30 20 30 30
HEREFORD TX 94 65 85 61 79 / 5 20 30 40 40
LIPSCOMB TX 100 69 86 61 84 / 5 30 30 40 30
PAMPA TX 95 70 85 63 78 / 5 20 30 40 40
SHAMROCK TX 100 71 87 65 86 / 5 20 20 50 30
WELLINGTON TX 100 72 91 66 87 / 5 10 20 50 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/11
000
FXUS64 KFWD 030805
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME IN WETTER
FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE SREF SHOWS SOME
LIKELY POPS...BUT I HAVE LEFT THEM AT CHANCE WHICH IS WHAT THE
GFS IS SHOWING. . ECMWF ALSO ON THE SAME PAGE...SO HAVE INCREASED
AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL. MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A WAVE MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH KEEPS POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NOW. HAVE ALSO ADDED LOW POPS FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.
WARMING TREND RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND I HAVE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 102 80 100 78 93 / 5 0 5 30 30
WACO, TX 100 79 102 78 96 / 5 0 5 10 20
PARIS, TX 99 75 97 75 90 / 5 0 5 40 40
DENTON, TX 100 78 98 76 92 / 5 0 5 30 30
MCKINNEY, TX 101 74 98 74 92 / 5 0 5 30 40
DALLAS, TX 102 82 100 79 94 / 5 0 5 30 30
TERRELL, TX 101 77 99 76 92 / 5 0 5 30 30
CORSICANA, TX 101 76 100 76 94 / 5 0 5 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 102 76 100 77 97 / 5 0 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBRO 030802
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
700MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO
INCHES...ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUING TO ADVECT
TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
A 700MB HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TX MONDAY SHOULD PROVIDE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUT
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA.
A 700MB LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO WAIT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DEVELOP AS THE
700MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD BRINGING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TX TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CU FIELD TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS BY MID MORNING. CONVECTION
IS ANTICIPATED TO FIRE BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z MOVING EAST TO WEST FROM
OR NEAR THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS THROUGH 21 OR 22Z. TEMPO MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM OUR MARINE AREAS SHOW
NEARLY SMOOTH BAY WATERS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE IN A SOUTHEAST WIND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND 1.3 FEET SEAS IN A SE FLOW OF 10 KNOTS
OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS DOMINANT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE AREAS TODAY AS ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ENTRENCHED IN OUR REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH AND WESTERN TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
INTERPLAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO 5 OR 6 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 78 96 81 / 40 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 94 76 97 80 / 40 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 96 76 100 78 / 40 10 10 10
MCALLEN 96 77 100 78 / 30 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 101 78 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 90 80 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
61/58
000
FXUS64 KMAF 030547
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO INCREASE SURFACE WINDS TO AT OR ABOVE 12KTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A SCT DECK OF CU THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MENTION CB AT KCNM AND KFST...BUT DUE TO
LIMITED COVERAGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR TS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
000
FXUS64 KLUB 030453
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN IT AFFECTING EITHER TAF SITE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE
AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN IT
AFFECTING EITHER TAF SITES IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
ARE VERY SLOW TO DECREASE. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MODERATELY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WIN THE DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCE IS WELL
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. FRIDAY AFTN COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE FCST AREA WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IT LOOKS THOUGH THAT ONLY THE FRINGES OF THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL GET TO ERN NM AND THINK THAT FOR ONE MORE DAY WILL SEE
A LACK OF STORMS IN THE FCST AREA AND WILL FAVOR POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE 15 PCT LEVELS IN THE GRIDS. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE AND SEE LITTLE REASON FOR STRAYING.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL TRANSLATE EWRD AND
FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND EVOLVE TOWARD A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN BY EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
BEFORE RIDGING SETS IN BY MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF
THE CWFA AND THUS HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE WRN ROWS OF COUNTIES. AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP
TRIGGER SOME STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NWRN HALF OF THE FA. GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MIXED MESSAGE AS TO HOW
FAR/QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND THIS PROVIDES
ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY FOR EXTENT/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. AS MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BDRY ON THE WRN SIDE
OF THE WRN GULF HIGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME STRONG...SHOULD DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY EVENING...IN ADDITION TO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...NW FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT AN MCS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NM. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY
NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ENSUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 91 66 94 66 / 0 10 10 20 30
TULIA 65 91 68 94 67 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 66 91 69 94 68 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 92 69 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 70 95 71 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 20
DENVER CITY 67 93 69 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 67 94 70 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 98 72 99 72 / 0 10 10 20 20
SPUR 69 97 72 97 73 / 0 10 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 71 99 74 100 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KEWX 030445 AAC
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...
REMOVING THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
REMOVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ESE LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THANKS TO OROGRAPHICS OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT
AS WARM MID LEVELS PROVIDE A CAP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN A LITTLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS WITH
SILENT 10 POPS FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY AND THE HILL COUNTRY FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ENDING POPS. THE MODELS WANT TO DRIFT THE RIDGE NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF AN EASTERLY WAVE. HOWEVER, THAT IS BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
GUIDANCE HIGHS CONTINUES TO RUN "COOL" AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS BY
UP TO 5 DEGREES. GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS ALSO RUN TOO MOIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND LOWERED THEM DUE TO AIRMASS
MIXING. REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 102 78 101 78 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 102 76 100 77 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 75 102 75 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 76 98 77 / - - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 79 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 100 77 100 77 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 101 76 100 75 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 76 102 77 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 76 100 76 / - 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 77 100 79 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 101 77 101 77 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/11
000
FXUS64 KAMA 030439 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1139 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE
AND INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES TO
THE SURFACE. THE DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 12 TO 15 KTS AROUND
02Z WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AROUND 20Z...THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD HELP SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z.
CB REMARKS ARE INCLUDED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRY TO
PINPOINT THE TIMING SO NOT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
KGUY ASOS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS THIS EVENING.
THE 04Z OBSERVATION IS AVAILABLE BUT IT IS NOT KNOWN WHETHER OR NOT
THIS DATA WILL FALL OUT AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER BENIGN OVERNIGHT SO AMENDMENTS MAY STILL BE ISSUED USING THE
TOTAL OBSERVATION CONCEPT.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL
DRYING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR OR JUST OVER 25 KTS...
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LEE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES. CONVECTION
CHANCES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROF
WHICH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. A CB REMARK HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR KDHT FOR NOW...BUT NOT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AGAIN
REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DEAMPLIFY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH CU AGAIN BEING SLOW TO DEVELOP. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE...HAVE OPTED TO CARRY NON MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WOULD RELY LARGELY ON DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER DAY OF MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 SEEM
REASONABLE AND THIS IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND LATEST MAV/MET NUMBERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT END
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE
COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MOISTURE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
NORTH. THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT...AND THIS COULD PLAY HAVOC ON MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS...THINK MOST AREAS WILL END UP SEEING PRECIP...BUT FOR NOW
SLIGHT END POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WITHIN UPPER FLOW STILL PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA...CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE.
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SOME FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS...WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. POP FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE
TWEAKED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY
EXISTS FOR POPS TO BE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG RANGE MODELS WANT TO BRING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. 12Z MEX NUMBERS PRETTY MUCH A MIRROR
IMAGE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT OVER
THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES
ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TAB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/03
000
FXUS64 KHGX 030432
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1132 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS. KLBX MAY BE THE
ONLY TERMINAL TO HAVE A T/TD SPREAD CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MVFR BR
DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL REMAIN FEW/SCT ABOVE
3000FT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISO IF ANY AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ENOUGH NOT TO PUT IN THE TAFS. NONE OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION AND THAT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD TREND. S/SE WINDS WILL
PICK UP SOME TOMORROW AND FRI NIGHT.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP.
THE CLIMATE DATA CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG STORY. ANOTHER DAILY
RECORD HIGH SET AT CLL WHICH REACHED 105 DEGREES. THIS IS THEIR
SIXTH RECORD HIGH SINCE JUNE 24TH. THE TEMPERATURE PEAKED AT 101
DEGREES AT IAH. THIS IS HOUSTON`S 8TH DAY OF 100-DEGREE OR HIGHER
TEMPERATURES THIS YEAR...AND THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A HIGH
OF 97 DEGREES OR HIGHER. LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR OUT ON 6/30 HAS
ALL OF HARRIS COUNTY IN MODERATE DROUGHT WITH SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF SE TX. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY
HOT WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT HIGHER THE NEXT TWO OR
THREE DAYS. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY...AS HEAT INDICES COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT SHOT FOR MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
35
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
THE ONLY ECHO ON THE RADAR SCOPE IS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO NE OF
KCLL. OTHERWISE ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED
ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS OR SO. CONVECTION AGAIN LOOKS RATHER LIMITED IF AT ALL FOR
TOMORROW AND WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE SW PER LATEST NAM/GFS BUT MAY BEGIN TO
CREEP BACK INTO SE TX AS SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY FLOW INCREASES. SFC
LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS MORE
FROM THE S-SE. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAY GIVE A BETTER CLUE TO
CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES FOR TOMORROW.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ALONG THE SEABREEZE
WHERE SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE IS IN SW ZONES AND WHERE CAPPING IS
WEAKER AND ALSO IN CROCKETT TO JASPER CORRIDOR. HAVE TENDED TO
FOLLOW THE TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE 850
TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C...THESE AREAS PLANNING TO CARRY THE
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NE NM AND
UPPER SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EXPECT THAT THE MORE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE SW ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES THOUGH
SLIM AND GETTING SLIMMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO TX FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE 4TH. STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A
CONCERN FOR FIREWORKS THOUGH THE DROUGHT WILL BE AS FUELS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH KBDI VALUES OF 600-700 AND
BURN BANS BLANKETING THE REGION. HEAT STILL AN ISSUE AS THE HEAT
WAVE CONTINUES AFTER THE VERY AND ALL TO SHORT RESPITE OF THE LAST
48 HRS. AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 97-101 SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR...FORTUNATELY THE VIGOROUS MIXING THANKS
TO ALL THAT HEATING WILL DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND MAKE IT
SLIGHTLY MORE BEARABLE WITH HEAT INDICIES "ONLY" TOPPING OUT IN
THE 100-105 RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS NW-N
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED/SCHC POPS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OFF RED RIVER/NRN LA CONVECTION. UPPER
RIDGING TO BUILD BACK BIG TIME INTO OK-MO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
IF IT MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH WE COULD GET MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE
STORMS...BUT IF IT DOESN`T THEN WE GET HOTTER...STILL TOO EARLY TO
TELL BUT IF THE LAST MONTH IS ANY INDICATION I WOULD LEAN TOWARDS
THE HOTTER/DRIER SCENARIO.
45
MARINE...
NOT PLANNING ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS WEAK GRADIENT OF LATE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE OF WINDS/SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCEC AT THIS POINT. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 102 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 100 78 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 92 81 92 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KCRP 030422
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1121 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY AMBIENT MVFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLD
CONVECTION GENERALLY EAST OF US281 DURING THE 10-15Z FRIDAY
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...DESPITE HIGH 00Z FRI PW VALUES AT CRP...GOES
SOUNDER DATA DEPICTS DECREASING PW VALUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVR
THE CWFA. THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED
BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVR THE CWFA. THE NAM PROGS DECREASING
CIN VALUES OVER THE WATER OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK YET LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
WL COMPROMISE BY MAINTAINING ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT YET WL DROP POPS TO 10 PERCENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...REMAINING SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE IS MAINLY CONFINED TO MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING SOME MVFR VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NICELY ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN ALICE AND HEBBRONVILLE WHERE SEA-BREEZE SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE DUE TO BACKED EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHER TONGUE OF MOISTURE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
2"+ PW VALUES REMAIN POOLED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
REGENERATE OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A STRAY
SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SHIFT INLAND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS TRICKY. DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS TOMORROW
WILL BE BATTLING INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE VEERED SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY. WILL KEEP COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
(SLIGHT CHANCE POPS) GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE IS NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BY
LATE FRIDAY...THEREFORE CAPPING THE REGION AND INHIBITING ANY
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS DURING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE HOT...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND
MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE PROGGING THICKNESS VALUES TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK...ALLOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...BUT ONLY BY 1 OR 2 DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 96 77 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 98 75 99 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 81 104 81 106 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 101 78 103 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 79 93 80 94 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 102 77 104 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 75 99 77 100 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 92 81 93 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KSJT 030419 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1119 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
/06Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE 500MB RIDGE CENTER OVER
NORTHEAST NM BUILDING SOUTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF W CNTRL TX. A
MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS THE MOISTURE AXIS HAS NOW BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE RECENT WET
PERIOD WE WERE IN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
WEAK CAP IN PLACE AND STRONG INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER 00Z SO I WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN
TONIGHT`S FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY...THE 500MB RIDGE CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE OVER W CNTRL TX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD...SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S SOUTH TO LOWER 100S NORTH.
LACY
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WASH OUT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GOING WITH SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 98 73 98 75 99 / 10 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 96 71 98 73 100 / 10 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 96 71 97 74 99 / 20 10 0 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/15
000
FXUS64 KEWX 030344
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1044 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
REMOVING THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
REMOVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ESE LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THANKS TO OROGRAPHICS OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT
AS WARM MID LEVELS PROVIDE A CAP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN A LITTLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS WITH
SILENT 10 POPS FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY AND THE HILL COUNTRY FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ENDING POPS. THE MODELS WANT TO DRIFT THE RIDGE NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF AN EASTERLY WAVE. HOWEVER, THAT IS BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
GUIDANCE HIGHS CONTINUES TO RUN "COOL" AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS BY
UP TO 5 DEGREES. GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS ALSO RUN TOO MOIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND LOWERED THEM DUE TO AIRMASS
MIXING. REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 102 78 101 78 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 102 76 100 77 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 75 102 75 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 76 98 77 / - - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 79 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 100 77 100 77 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 101 76 100 75 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 76 102 77 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 76 100 76 / - 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 77 100 79 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 101 77 101 77 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/11
000
FXUS64 KCRP 030333
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1033 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...DESPITE HIGH 00Z FRI PW VALUES AT CRP...GOES
SOUNDER DATA DEPICTS DECREASING PW VALUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVR
THE CWFA. THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED
BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVR THE CWFA. THE NAM PROGS DECREASING
CIN VALUES OVER THE WATER OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK YET LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST.
WL COMPROMISE BY MAINTAINING ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT YET WL DROP POPS TO 10 PERCENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...REMAINING SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE IS MAINLY CONFINED TO MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING SOME MVFR VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NICELY ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN ALICE AND HEBBRONVILLE WHERE SEA-BREEZE SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE DUE TO BACKED EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHER TONGUE OF MOISTURE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
2"+ PW VALUES REMAIN POOLED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
REGENERATE OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A STRAY
SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SHIFT INLAND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS TRICKY. DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS TOMORROW
WILL BE BATTLING INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE VEERED SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY. WILL KEEP COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
(SLIGHT CHANCE POPS) GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE IS NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BY
LATE FRIDAY...THEREFORE CAPPING THE REGION AND INHIBITING ANY
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS DURING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE HOT...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND
MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE PROGGING THICKNESS VALUES TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK...ALLOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...BUT ONLY BY 1 OR 2 DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 96 77 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 98 75 99 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 81 104 81 106 81 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 101 78 103 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 79 93 80 94 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 102 77 104 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 75 99 77 100 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 92 81 93 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KSJT 030333
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1033 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
RECENT ZONE UPDATE REMOVED THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. ALL ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.
23/HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE 500MB RIDGE CENTER OVER
NORTHEAST NM BUILDING SOUTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF W CNTRL TX. A
MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS THE MOISTURE AXIS HAS NOW BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE RECENT WET
PERIOD WE WERE IN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
WEAK CAP IN PLACE AND STRONG INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER 00Z SO I WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN
TONIGHT`S FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY...THE 500MB RIDGE CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE OVER W CNTRL TX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD...SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S SOUTH TO LOWER 100S NORTH.
LACY
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WASH OUT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GOING WITH SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 71 98 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 71 97 74 99 75 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/HUBER
000
FXUS64 KFWD 030211 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
911 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
ALL ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS NOW DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT
SUNSET. UPDATE SENT TO REMOVE MENTION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME/WARM NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
HEAT AND THIN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ROCKWALL CELL HAS ALREADY
RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH MEAGER OUTFLOW REACHING LOVE FIELD. WINDOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL SOON CLOSE...AND WILL MAINTAIN NO
MENTION IN 00Z TAFS. SIMILAR DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH TIGHTENING SFC
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN MORE DEFINED WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS UP
TO 10-12KTS.
25
&&
.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OVER THE UPPER HIGH ON WATER VAPOR SHOULD AFFECT
MAINLY AREAS E OF I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED
CU AREAS/CONVERGENCE NOTED IN SPOTS OVER WRN COUNTIES. THERE IS NO CONTINUITY
AND SHEAR IS WEAK...SO ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE...BUT A DRIFT
OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE S OR SE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN IDENTIFIABLE SEVERE WX THREAT AT
THIS TIME.
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH AN END TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OVER OUR NORTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW AREAS
OF SLIGHTLY BETTER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM BONHAM TO
GREENVILLE WITH A FEW RADAR ECHOES NOTED. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AS A RESULT WILL CARRY 10 POPS BUT NO
MENTION OF ISOLD RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST. WILL ALLOW SHORT TERM
FORECAST TO HANDLE ANY PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TRIPLE DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH READINGS NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS /PARTICULARLY IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO/ WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD ALLOW US TO
REMAIN SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ESTABLISHING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COOL FRONT TO
SLIDE INTO THE RED RIVER AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION IN REGARD TO TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT /ALONG THE RED RIVER/...AREA WIDE
BY MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BRING A BREAK IN THE 100 DEGREE READINGS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.
A QUICK REBOUND TO UPPER 90S IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 101 80 99 79 / 5 5 0 5 10
WACO, TX 73 100 78 101 80 / 5 5 0 5 10
PARIS, TX 71 98 76 97 77 / 5 5 0 5 20
DENTON, TX 69 98 78 98 79 / 5 5 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 69 99 76 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 79 101 82 99 81 / 5 5 0 5 10
TERRELL, TX 72 101 77 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 100 76 98 78 / 5 5 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 98 76 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/05
000
FXUS64 KMAF 030206
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
906 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ELSE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRAVERSING THE UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA IN BETTER AXIS OF
THETAE AIR...WHICH MAY BE AIDED BY A MODEST 25 TO 30KT SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SO
SPARSE WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOKED GOOD...BUT TWEAKED SKY COVER...WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. 67
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 71 96 72 97 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 69 95 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
DRYDEN TX 72 96 72 97 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 72 96 71 98 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 90 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
HOBBS NM 68 96 69 96 / 0 10 10 20
MARFA TX 60 89 60 91 / 10 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 70 96 72 97 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA TX 71 97 73 98 / 0 0 10 10
WINK TX 73 100 73 101 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBRO 030136
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
836 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS DYING WITH THE SUN AS ADVERTISED. LATEST NAM WAY
OVERDONE ON MOISTURE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. 18Z GFS GUIDANCE
SLIGHTLY DECREASED RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS OVER PREVIOUS RUN BUT
BELIEVE ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVE/ENHANCED CONVECTION STILL LIKELY THEN
RIDGE DOMINATES ONCE AGAIN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY FOCUSED INITIALLY ON THE CROSSING OF
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE GULF. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS SINCE STARTED MOVING
MORE WESTERLY ALONG US83. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN POPPING UP DUE TO THE
AREA BEING IN A GAP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NM AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS GAP WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW...ALLOWING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...CAPPING THE REGION
AND PUTTING A STOP TO THE SEABREEZE SPARKING CONVECTION. IT WILL
ALSO SIGNAL THE RETURN TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RECORD HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AT
BRO HRL AND MFE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 110 AT TIMES.
EXPECT THE HEAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGE IN THE BUOY20 CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 1 FOOT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO INCREASE
AND SEAS TO BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH
AND WESTERN TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS
COULD APPROACH 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD 5 TO POSSIBLY 6 FEET.
ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING IS LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CU FIELD TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS BY MID MORNING. CONVECTION
IS ANTICIPATED TO FIRE BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z MOVING EAST TO WEST FROM
OR NEAR THE COAST TO INLAND AREAS THROUGH 21 OR 22Z. TEMPO MVFR TO
IFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 94 78 95 / 20 50 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 76 95 76 97 / 20 50 10 10
HARLINGEN 76 98 76 99 / 20 50 10 10
MCALLEN 77 99 77 100 / 10 30 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 104 77 104 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 88 81 88 / 20 50 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
59/51
000
FXUS64 KHGX 030126
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
826 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP.
THE CLIMATE DATA CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG STORY. ANOTHER DAILY
RECORD HIGH SET AT CLL WHICH REACHED 105 DEGREES. THIS IS THEIR
SIXTH RECORD HIGH SINCE JUNE 24TH. THE TEMPERATURE PEAKED AT 101
DEGREES AT IAH. THIS IS HOUSTON`S 8TH DAY OF 100-DEGREE OR HIGHER
TEMPERATURES THIS YEAR...AND THE 21ST CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A HIGH
OF 97 DEGREES OR HIGHER. LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR OUT ON 6/30 HAS
ALL OF HARRIS COUNTY IN MODERATE DROUGHT WITH SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF SE TX. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY
HOT WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT HIGHER THE NEXT TWO OR
THREE DAYS. WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY...AS HEAT INDICES COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT SHOT FOR MORE THAN
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
THE ONLY ECHO ON THE RADAR SCOPE IS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO NE OF
KCLL. OTHERWISE ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED
ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS OR SO. CONVECTION AGAIN LOOKS RATHER LIMITED IF AT ALL FOR
TOMORROW AND WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE SW PER LATEST NAM/GFS BUT MAY BEGIN TO
CREEP BACK INTO SE TX AS SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY FLOW INCREASES. SFC
LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS MORE
FROM THE S-SE. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAY GIVE A BETTER CLUE TO
CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES FOR TOMORROW.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ALONG THE SEABREEZE
WHERE SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE IS IN SW ZONES AND WHERE CAPPING IS
WEAKER AND ALSO IN CROCKETT TO JASPER CORRIDOR. HAVE TENDED TO
FOLLOW THE TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE 850
TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C...THESE AREAS PLANNING TO CARRY THE
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NE NM AND
UPPER SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EXPECT THAT THE MORE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE SW ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES THOUGH
SLIM AND GETTING SLIMMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO TX FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE 4TH. STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A
CONCERN FOR FIREWORKS THOUGH THE DROUGHT WILL BE AS FUELS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH KBDI VALUES OF 600-700 AND
BURN BANS BLANKETING THE REGION. HEAT STILL AN ISSUE AS THE HEAT
WAVE CONTINUES AFTER THE VERY AND ALL TO SHORT RESPITE OF THE LAST
48 HRS. AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 97-101 SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR...FORTUNATELY THE VIGOROUS MIXING THANKS
TO ALL THAT HEATING WILL DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND MAKE IT
SLIGHTLY MORE BEARABLE WITH HEAT INDICIES "ONLY" TOPPING OUT IN
THE 100-105 RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS NW-N
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED/SCHC POPS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OFF RED RIVER/NRN LA CONVECTION. UPPER
RIDGING TO BUILD BACK BIG TIME INTO OK-MO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
IF IT MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH WE COULD GET MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE
STORMS...BUT IF IT DOESN`T THEN WE GET HOTTER...STILL TOO EARLY TO
TELL BUT IF THE LAST MONTH IS ANY INDICATION I WOULD LEAN TOWARDS
THE HOTTER/DRIER SCENARIO.
45
MARINE...
NOT PLANNING ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS WEAK GRADIENT OF LATE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE OF WINDS/SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCEC AT THIS POINT. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 102 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 100 78 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 92 81 92 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...35
000
FXUS64 KEWX 022335 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THANKS TO OROGRAPHICS OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT
AS WARM MID LEVELS PROVIDE A CAP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN A LITTLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS WITH
SILENT 10 POPS FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY AND THE HILL COUNTRY FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ENDING POPS. THE MODELS WANT TO DRIFT THE RIDGE NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF AN EASTERLY WAVE. HOWEVER, THAT IS BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
GUIDANCE HIGHS CONTINUES TO RUN "COOL" AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS BY
UP TO 5 DEGREES. GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS ALSO RUN TOO MOIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND LOWERED THEM DUE TO AIRMASS
MIXING. REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 102 78 101 78 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 102 76 100 77 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 75 102 75 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 76 98 77 / - - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 79 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 100 77 100 77 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 101 76 100 75 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 76 102 77 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 76 100 76 / - 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 77 100 79 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 101 77 101 77 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/11/RH
000
FXUS64 KHGX 022324
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE ONLY ECHO ON THE RADAR SCOPE IS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO NE OF
KCLL. OTHERWISE ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED
ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS OR SO. CONVECTION AGAIN LOOKS RATHER LIMITED IF AT ALL FOR
TOMORROW AND WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION FOR NOW. DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE SW PER LATEST NAM/GFS BUT MAY BEGIN TO
CREEP BACK INTO SE TX AS SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY FLOW INCREASES. SFC
LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS MORE
FROM THE S-SE. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS MAY GIVE A BETTER CLUE TO
CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES FOR TOMORROW.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ALONG THE SEABREEZE
WHERE SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE IS IN SW ZONES AND WHERE CAPPING IS
WEAKER AND ALSO IN CROCKETT TO JASPER CORRIDOR. HAVE TENDED TO
FOLLOW THE TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE 850
TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C...THESE AREAS PLANNING TO CARRY THE
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NE NM AND
UPPER SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EXPECT THAT THE MORE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE SW ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES THOUGH
SLIM AND GETTING SLIMMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO TX FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE 4TH. STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A
CONCERN FOR FIREWORKS THOUGH THE DROUGHT WILL BE AS FUELS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH KBDI VALUES OF 600-700 AND
BURN BANS BLANKETING THE REGION. HEAT STILL AN ISSUE AS THE HEAT
WAVE CONTINUES AFTER THE VERY AND ALL TO SHORT RESPITE OF THE LAST
48 HRS. AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 97-101 SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR...FORTUNATELY THE VIGOROUS MIXING THANKS
TO ALL THAT HEATING WILL DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND MAKE IT
SLIGHTLY MORE BEARABLE WITH HEAT INDICIES "ONLY" TOPPING OUT IN
THE 100-105 RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS NW-N
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED/SCHC POPS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OFF RED RIVER/NRN LA CONVECTION. UPPER
RIDGING TO BUILD BACK BIG TIME INTO OK-MO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
IF IT MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH WE COULD GET MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE
STORMS...BUT IF IT DOESN`T THEN WE GET HOTTER...STILL TOO EARLY TO
TELL BUT IF THE LAST MONTH IS ANY INDICATION I WOULD LEAN TOWARDS
THE HOTTER/DRIER SCENARIO.
45
MARINE...
NOT PLANNING ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS WEAK GRADIENT OF LATE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE OF WINDS/SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCEC AT THIS POINT. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 101 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 99 78 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 92 81 92 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KMAF 022321
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 20
KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT KMAF...AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP WITHIN THE TAF THROUGH 01Z. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KMAF...BUT RADAR
TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT TSRA MENTION WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUP ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-18Z FRIDAY MORNING...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK
UP TO 12-15 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A WEAK TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY SO WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE.
BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS SOUTH TO THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES CHIPPING AWAY AT THE UPPER RIDGE.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STALLED IN
THE AREA. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AGAIN...
MORE SO ON THE GFS. STILL THINK SOME MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DESPITE THE RIDGE AS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE EXCESSIVELY WARM. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
PERMIAN BASIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLY STILL IN THE AREA. WENT DRY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
LOOKS TO BE IN CHARGE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 022321
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE
AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN IT
AFFECTING EITHER TAF SITES IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
ARE VERY SLOW TO DECREASE. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MODERATELY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WIN THE DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCE IS WELL
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. FRIDAY AFTN COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE FCST AREA WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IT LOOKS THOUGH THAT ONLY THE FRINGES OF THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL GET TO ERN NM AND THINK THAT FOR ONE MORE DAY WILL SEE
A LACK OF STORMS IN THE FCST AREA AND WILL FAVOR POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE 15 PCT LEVELS IN THE GRIDS. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE AND SEE LITTLE REASON FOR STRAYING.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL TRANSLATE EWRD AND
FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND EVOLVE TOWARD A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN BY EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
BEFORE RIDGING SETS IN BY MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF
THE CWFA AND THUS HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE WRN ROWS OF COUNTIES. AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP
TRIGGER SOME STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NWRN HALF OF THE FA. GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MIXED MESSAGE AS TO HOW
FAR/QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND THIS PROVIDES
ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY FOR EXTENT/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. AS MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BDRY ON THE WRN SIDE
OF THE WRN GULF HIGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME STRONG...SHOULD DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY EVENING...IN ADDITION TO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...NW FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT AN MCS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NM. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY
NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ENSUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 91 66 94 66 / 0 10 10 20 30
TULIA 65 91 68 94 67 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 66 91 69 94 68 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 92 69 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 70 95 71 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 20
DENVER CITY 67 93 69 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 67 94 70 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 98 72 99 72 / 0 10 10 20 20
SPUR 69 97 72 97 73 / 0 10 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 71 99 74 100 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KMAF 022321
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE IS VERY LIMITED. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 20
KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT KMAF...AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP WITHIN THE TAF THROUGH 01Z. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KMAF...BUT RADAR
TRENDS DO NOT SUPPORT TSRA MENTION WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUP ATTM.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-18Z FRIDAY MORNING...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK
UP TO 12-15 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A WEAK TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY SO WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE.
BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS SOUTH TO THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES CHIPPING AWAY AT THE UPPER RIDGE.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STALLED IN
THE AREA. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AGAIN...
MORE SO ON THE GFS. STILL THINK SOME MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DESPITE THE RIDGE AS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE EXCESSIVELY WARM. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
PERMIAN BASIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLY STILL IN THE AREA. WENT DRY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
LOOKS TO BE IN CHARGE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 022321
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE
AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN IT
AFFECTING EITHER TAF SITES IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
ARE VERY SLOW TO DECREASE. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MODERATELY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WIN THE DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCE IS WELL
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. FRIDAY AFTN COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE FCST AREA WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IT LOOKS THOUGH THAT ONLY THE FRINGES OF THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL GET TO ERN NM AND THINK THAT FOR ONE MORE DAY WILL SEE
A LACK OF STORMS IN THE FCST AREA AND WILL FAVOR POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE 15 PCT LEVELS IN THE GRIDS. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE AND SEE LITTLE REASON FOR STRAYING.
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL TRANSLATE EWRD AND
FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND EVOLVE TOWARD A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN BY EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
BEFORE RIDGING SETS IN BY MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF
THE CWFA AND THUS HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE WRN ROWS OF COUNTIES. AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP
TRIGGER SOME STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NWRN HALF OF THE FA. GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MIXED MESSAGE AS TO HOW
FAR/QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND THIS PROVIDES
ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY FOR EXTENT/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. AS MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BDRY ON THE WRN SIDE
OF THE WRN GULF HIGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME STRONG...SHOULD DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY EVENING...IN ADDITION TO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...NW FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT AN MCS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NM. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY
NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ENSUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 91 66 94 66 / 0 10 10 20 30
TULIA 65 91 68 94 67 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 66 91 69 94 68 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 92 69 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 70 95 71 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 20
DENVER CITY 67 93 69 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 67 94 70 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 98 72 99 72 / 0 10 10 20 20
SPUR 69 97 72 97 73 / 0 10 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 71 99 74 100 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KCRP 022319 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
619 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...REMAINING SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE IS MAINLY CONFINED TO MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING SOME MVFR VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA. ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NICELY ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN ALICE AND HEBBRONVILLE WHERE SEA-BREEZE SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE DUE TO BACKED EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHER TONGUE OF MOISTURE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
2"+ PW VALUES REMAIN POOLED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
REGENERATE OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A STRAY
SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SHIFT INLAND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS TRICKY. DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS TOMORROW
WILL BE BATTLING INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE VEERED SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY. WILL KEEP COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
(SLIGHT CHANCE POPS) GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE IS NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BY
LATE FRIDAY...THEREFORE CAPPING THE REGION AND INHIBITING ANY
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS DURING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE HOT...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND
MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE PROGGING THICKNESS VALUES TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK...ALLOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...BUT ONLY BY 1 OR 2 DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 96 77 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 98 75 99 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 81 104 81 106 81 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 101 78 103 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 79 93 80 94 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 102 77 104 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 75 99 77 100 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 92 81 93 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JAR/19...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KFWD 022306 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
606 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
HEAT AND THIN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AGAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ROCKWALL CELL HAS ALREADY
RAPIDLY DISSIPATED WITH MEAGER OUTFLOW REACHING LOVE FIELD. WINDOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL SOON CLOSE...AND WILL MAINTAIN NO
MENTION IN 00Z TAFS. SIMILAR DAY FRIDAY...THOUGH TIGHTENING SFC
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN MORE DEFINED WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS UP
TO 10-12KTS.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OVER THE UPPER HIGH ON WATER VAPOR SHOULD AFFECT
MAINLY AREAS E OF I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED
CU AREAS/CONVERGENCE NOTED IN SPOTS OVER WRN COUNTIES. THERE IS NO CONTINUITY
AND SHEAR IS WEAK...SO ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE...BUT A DRIFT
OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE S OR SE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN IDENTIFIABLE SEVERE WX THREAT AT
THIS TIME.
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH AN END TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OVER OUR NORTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW AREAS
OF SLIGHTLY BETTER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM BONHAM TO
GREENVILLE WITH A FEW RADAR ECHOES NOTED. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AS A RESULT WILL CARRY 10 POPS BUT NO
MENTION OF ISOLD RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST. WILL ALLOW SHORT TERM
FORECAST TO HANDLE ANY PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TRIPLE DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH READINGS NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS /PARTICULARLY IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO/ WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD ALLOW US TO
REMAIN SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ESTABLISHING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COOL FRONT TO
SLIDE INTO THE RED RIVER AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION IN REGARD TO TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT /ALONG THE RED RIVER/...AREA WIDE
BY MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BRING A BREAK IN THE 100 DEGREE READINGS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.
A QUICK REBOUND TO UPPER 90S IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 101 80 99 79 / 5 5 0 5 10
WACO, TX 73 100 78 101 80 / 5 5 0 5 10
PARIS, TX 71 98 76 97 77 / 5 5 0 5 20
DENTON, TX 69 98 78 98 79 / 5 5 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 69 99 76 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 79 101 82 99 81 / 5 5 0 5 10
TERRELL, TX 72 101 77 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 100 76 98 78 / 5 5 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 98 76 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/05
000
FXUS64 KAMA 022305 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
605 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL
DRYING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. AN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR OR JUST OVER 25 KTS...
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LEE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES. CONVECTION
CHANCES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROF
WHICH IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. A CB REMARK HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR KDHT FOR NOW...BUT NOT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AGAIN
REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DEAMPLIFY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH CU AGAIN BEING SLOW TO DEVELOP. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE...HAVE OPTED TO CARRY NON MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WOULD RELY LARGELY ON DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER DAY OF MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 SEEM
REASONABLE AND THIS IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND LATEST MAV/MET NUMBERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT END
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE
COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MOISTURE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
NORTH. THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT...AND THIS COULD PLAY HAVOC ON MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS...THINK MOST AREAS WILL END UP SEEING PRECIP...BUT FOR NOW
SLIGHT END POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WITHIN UPPER FLOW STILL PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA...CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE.
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SOME FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS...WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. POP FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE
TWEAKED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY
EXISTS FOR POPS TO BE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG RANGE MODELS WANT TO BRING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. 12Z MEX NUMBERS PRETTY MUCH A MIRROR
IMAGE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT OVER
THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES
ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TAB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/03
000
FXUS64 KSJT 022251 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
551 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE 500MB RIDGE CENTER OVER
NORTHEAST NM BUILDING SOUTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF W CNTRL TX. A
MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS THE MOISTURE AXIS HAS NOW BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE RECENT WET
PERIOD WE WERE IN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
WEAK CAP IN PLACE AND STRONG INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER 00Z SO I WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN
TONIGHT`S FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY...THE 500MB RIDGE CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE OVER W CNTRL TX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD...SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S SOUTH TO LOWER 100S NORTH.
LACY
LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WASH OUT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GOING WITH SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 71 98 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 71 97 74 99 75 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/15
000
FXUS64 KFWD 022134 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
434 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OVER THE UPPER HIGH ON WATER VAPOR SHOULD AFFECT
MAINLY AREAS E OF I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOME LOCALIZED
CU AREAS/CONVERGENCE NOTED IN SPOTS OVER WRN COUNTIES. THERE IS NO CONTINUITY
AND SHEAR IS WEAK...SO ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE...BUT A DRIFT
OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE S OR SE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN IDENTIFIABLE SEVERE WX THREAT AT
THIS TIME.
ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH AN END TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OVER OUR NORTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW AREAS
OF SLIGHTLY BETTER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM BONHAM TO
GREENVILLE WITH A FEW RADAR ECHOES NOTED. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AS A RESULT WILL CARRY 10 POPS BUT NO
MENTION OF ISOLD RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST. WILL ALLOW SHORT TERM
FORECAST TO HANDLE ANY PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TRIPLE DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH READINGS NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS /PARTICULARLY IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO/ WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD ALLOW US TO
REMAIN SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ESTABLISHING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COOL FRONT TO
SLIDE INTO THE RED RIVER AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION IN REGARD TO TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT /ALONG THE RED RIVER/...AREA WIDE
BY MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BRING A BREAK IN THE 100 DEGREE READINGS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.
A QUICK REBOUND TO UPPER 90S IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 101 80 99 79 / 5 5 0 5 10
WACO, TX 73 100 78 101 80 / 5 5 0 5 10
PARIS, TX 71 98 76 97 77 / 5 5 0 5 20
DENTON, TX 69 98 78 98 79 / 5 5 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 69 99 76 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 79 101 82 99 81 / 5 5 0 5 10
TERRELL, TX 72 101 77 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 100 76 98 78 / 5 5 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 98 76 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/21
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LAYERED MOISTURE MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CREATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY THE HIGH ALOFT MOVES MORE OVER ARIZONA AND THE NORTHERN
BAJA. THIS WILL HELP SHUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE SURFACE...ALLOWING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. AS THE CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL AND
PERHAPS APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK ALONG THE LOWLANDS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO ALLOW DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MODELS STILL SHOWING PW`S OF AROUND 1.2 - 1.4 INCH FOR
TONIGHT SO LOCAL HEAVY RAINS OF 1-3 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BOTH NAM/GFS TRYING TO PICK UP ON UPPER FEATURE TONIGHT
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS POSSIBLE IMPULSE WELL SOUTH
OF TUCSON AND A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS SHOW...BUT COULD BE
OTHER IMPULSES OUT THERE TOO.
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY...SO EXPECT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA INTO SATURDAY.
PW`S WILL DIMINISH SOME...CLOSER TO 1 INCH BY SATURDAY SO HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO DECREASE A BIT. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THE UPPER HIGH RIDGES OUT EAST-WEST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S.
THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT THE LAYERED MOISTURE...THOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. WILL CUT BACK
POPS TO ISOLATED FOR MONDAY ON...WITH BEST CHANCES BEING OVER
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z...
SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE WEST OF A KDMN-KTCS LINE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THAT LINE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR FOR CIGS
AND VSBY IN AND NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SE...EXCEPT NEAR STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WILL ALLOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BOOTHEEL
AND THE GILA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
LIKELY. AREAS FARTHER EAST WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT CAN EXPECT AN UPSWING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THAT MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
OVER THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 74 93 73 95 73 / 20 20 20 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA TX 71 90 65 91 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 71 93 70 94 70 / 20 20 20 20 30
ALAMOGORDO 70 92 67 92 67 / 20 30 20 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 50 69 49 68 49 / 20 30 30 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 91 66 92 66 / 30 30 30 30 30
SILVER CITY 62 84 61 86 61 / 30 30 30 30 30
DEMING 69 93 67 95 67 / 30 20 30 20 30
LORDSBURG 68 92 66 94 66 / 30 30 30 30 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/PARK
000
FXUS64 KEWX 022101
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
401 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THANKS TO OROGRAPHICS OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
OVER THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT
AS WARM MID LEVELS PROVIDE A CAP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION, EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN A LITTLE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS WITH
SILENT 10 POPS FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY AND THE HILL COUNTRY FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ENDING POPS. THE MODELS WANT TO DRIFT THE RIDGE NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF AN EASTERLY WAVE. HOWEVER, THAT IS BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
GUIDANCE HIGHS CONTINUES TO RUN "COOL" AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS BY
UP TO 5 DEGREES. GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS ALSO RUN TOO MOIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND LOWERED THEM DUE TO AIRMASS
MIXING. REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 102 78 101 78 / - - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 102 76 100 77 / - - - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 75 102 75 / - - - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 76 98 77 / - - - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 79 101 78 / - - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 100 77 100 77 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 101 76 100 75 / - - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 76 102 77 / - - - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 100 76 100 76 / - 10 10 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 77 100 79 / - - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 101 77 101 77 / - - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/18
000
FXUS64 KHGX 022056
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ALONG THE SEABREEZE
WHERE SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE IS IN SW ZONES AND WHERE CAPPING IS
WEAKER AND ALSO IN CROCKETT TO JASPER CORRIDOR. HAVE TENDED TO
FOLLOW THE TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE 850
TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C...THESE AREAS PLANNING TO CARRY THE
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NE NM AND
UPPER SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EXPECT THAT THE MORE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE SW ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES THOUGH
SLIM AND GETTING SLIMMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO TX FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE 4TH. STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A
CONCERN FOR FIREWORKS THOUGH THE DROUGHT WILL BE AS FUELS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH KBDI VALUES OF 600-700 AND
BURN BANS BLANKETING THE REGION. HEAT STILL AN ISSUE AS THE HEAT
WAVE CONTINUES AFTER THE VERY AND ALL TO SHORT RESPITE OF THE LAST
48 HRS. AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 97-101 SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR...FORTUNATELY THE VIGOROUS MIXING THANKS
TO ALL THAT HEATING WILL DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND MAKE IT
SLIGHTLY MORE BEARABLE WITH HEAT INDICIES "ONLY" TOPPING OUT IN
THE 100-105 RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS NW-N
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED/SCHC POPS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OFF RED RIVER/NRN LA CONVECTION. UPPER
RIDGING TO BUILD BACK BIG TIME INTO OK-MO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
IF IT MAKES IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH WE COULD GET MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE
STORMS...BUT IF IT DOESN`T THEN WE GET HOTTER...STILL TOO EARLY TO
TELL BUT IF THE LAST MONTH IS ANY INDICATION I WOULD LEAN TOWARDS
THE HOTTER/DRIER SCENARIO.
45
&&
.MARINE...
NOT PLANNING ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS WEAK GRADIENT OF LATE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE OF WINDS/SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCEC AT THIS POINT. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 101 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 99 78 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 92 81 92 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KAMA 022039
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
339 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AGAIN
REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DEAMPLIFY TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH CU AGAIN BEING SLOW TO DEVELOP. WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE...HAVE OPTED TO CARRY NON MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WOULD RELY LARGELY ON DIURNAL HEATING AND
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
ONE MORE WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT. ANOTHER DAY OF MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 SEEM
REASONABLE AND THIS IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST AND LATEST MAV/MET NUMBERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT END
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE
COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MOISTURE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
NORTH. THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT...AND THIS COULD PLAY HAVOC ON MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS...THINK MOST AREAS WILL END UP SEEING PRECIP...BUT FOR NOW
SLIGHT END POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY. A FEW DISTURBANCES WITHIN UPPER FLOW STILL PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA...CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE.
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SOME FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS...WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. POP FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE
TWEAKED AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY
EXISTS FOR POPS TO BE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG RANGE MODELS WANT TO BRING THE UPPER RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. 12Z MEX NUMBERS PRETTY MUCH A MIRROR
IMAGE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED.
TAB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT OVER
THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES
ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 66 94 68 92 67 / 5 10 20 20 30
BEAVER OK 66 101 69 91 66 / 5 10 10 20 30
BOISE CITY OK 65 93 64 93 64 / 5 20 20 20 30
BORGER TX 70 97 72 93 70 / 5 10 10 20 30
BOYS RANCH TX 68 98 67 92 66 / 5 20 20 20 30
CANYON TX 63 94 67 92 66 / 5 10 20 20 30
CLARENDON TX 68 96 71 95 69 / 5 10 10 20 30
DALHART TX 65 94 64 88 63 / 5 20 20 20 30
GUYMON OK 68 98 66 91 67 / 5 10 20 20 30
HEREFORD TX 63 94 65 90 64 / 5 20 20 20 30
LIPSCOMB TX 65 100 69 93 68 / 5 10 10 20 30
PAMPA TX 71 95 71 93 69 / 5 10 10 20 30
SHAMROCK TX 69 100 71 95 71 / 5 10 10 20 30
WELLINGTON TX 70 100 72 99 70 / 5 10 5 20 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/10
000
FXUS64 KCRP 022017
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
317 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NICELY ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN ALICE AND HEBBRONVILLE WHERE SEA-BREEZE SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE DUE TO BACKED EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHER TONGUE OF MOISTURE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
2"+ PW VALUES REMAIN POOLED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS
REGENERATE OVER THE GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY A STRAY
SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SHIFT INLAND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS TRICKY. DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS TOMORROW
WILL BE BATTLING INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE VEERED SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY. WILL KEEP COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED RANGE
(SLIGHT CHANCE POPS) GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MAIN CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE IS NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BY
LATE FRIDAY...THEREFORE CAPPING THE REGION AND INHIBITING ANY
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS DURING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE HOT...WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND
MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. MODELS ARE PROGGING THICKNESS VALUES TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK...ALLOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...BUT ONLY BY 1 OR 2 DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 96 77 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 98 75 99 77 / 10 20 10 10 10
LAREDO 81 104 81 106 81 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 77 101 78 103 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 79 93 80 94 82 / 10 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 76 102 77 104 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 75 99 77 100 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 92 81 93 81 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
KR/97...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KFWD 022014
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OVER OUR NORTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW AREAS
OF SLIGHTLY BETTER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM BONHAM TO
GREENVILLE WITH A FEW RADAR ECHOES NOTED. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AS A RESULT WILL CARRY 10 POPS BUT NO
MENTION OF ISOLD RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST. WILL ALLOW SHORT TERM
FORECAST TO HANDLE ANY PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TRIPLE DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH READINGS NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS /PARTICULARLY IN THE
IMMEDIATE DFW METRO/ WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD ALLOW US TO
REMAIN SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ESTABLISHING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ENABLE A COOL FRONT TO
SLIDE INTO THE RED RIVER AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. STILL SOME QUESTION IN REGARD TO TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT /ALONG THE RED RIVER/...AREA WIDE
BY MONDAY...AND TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BRING A BREAK IN THE 100 DEGREE READINGS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.
A QUICK REBOUND TO UPPER 90S IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 101 80 99 79 / 5 5 0 5 10
WACO, TX 73 100 78 101 80 / 5 5 0 5 10
PARIS, TX 71 98 76 97 77 / 5 5 0 5 20
DENTON, TX 69 98 78 98 79 / 5 5 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 69 99 76 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 79 101 82 99 81 / 5 5 0 5 10
TERRELL, TX 72 101 77 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 100 76 98 78 / 5 5 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 98 76 99 77 / 5 5 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 022012
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
312 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE 500MB RIDGE CENTER OVER
NORTHEAST NM BUILDING SOUTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF W CNTRL TX. A
MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...AS THE MOISTURE AXIS HAS NOW BEEN
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE RECENT WET
PERIOD WE WERE IN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
WEAK CAP IN PLACE AND STRONG INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY AFTER 00Z SO I WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN
TONIGHT`S FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY...THE 500MB RIDGE CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE OVER W CNTRL TX.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE DEEPLY MIXED AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVERHEAD...SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S SOUTH TO LOWER 100S NORTH.
LACY
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WASH OUT ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY
NIGHT. GOING WITH SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 71 98 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 71 97 74 99 75 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 021931
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A WEAK TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE A LITTLE ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY SO WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE.
BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS SOUTH TO THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES CHIPPING AWAY AT THE UPPER RIDGE.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STALLED IN
THE AREA. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS AGAIN...
MORE SO ON THE GFS. STILL THINK SOME MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DESPITE THE RIDGE AS 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE EXCESSIVELY WARM. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
PERMIAN BASIN...BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSSIBLY STILL IN THE AREA. WENT DRY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
LOOKS TO BE IN CHARGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 71 96 72 97 / 10 0 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 69 95 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
DRYDEN TX 72 96 72 97 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 72 96 71 98 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 90 67 92 / 20 10 10 10
HOBBS NM 69 96 69 96 / 10 10 10 20
MARFA TX 59 89 60 91 / 20 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 70 96 72 97 / 10 0 10 10
ODESSA TX 71 97 73 98 / 10 0 10 10
WINK TX 73 100 73 101 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS64 KSJT 021919
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
219 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF SAN ANGELO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM STERLING CITY
TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA. OTHER SHOWERS/TSHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
BASED ON BETTER COVERAGE IN THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...I HAVE
INSERTED A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY WIND OR SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 8 KM AND THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND
SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE BELOW FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD TSRA
DVLPMT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 67 CORRIDOR BTWN
18Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPTD TO BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
TAFS IF NEEDED. JUST LIKE THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT KJCT AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MODEL DUE TO
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEY.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INSERT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTORM
DVLPMT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT STORMS POPPED UP FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPTD YESTERDAY...I CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME DVLPMT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INSERT A 10
POP ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS UP IN THE NEAR TERM AND ADJUSTED
HIGHS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5 MILES IN
LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. MAINLY SE-S
WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS... BUT VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE BIT OF ACCAS HAS REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. AND NO SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING EITHER.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SO
CLIMBING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESSES...EXPECT TO AGAIN
APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE SEEN
SOME RAINFALL OVER THE LEAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO WET SOILS MAY
MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AT LEAST IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE...AND THEN
PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA...HAVE
EXPANDED THE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 73 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 71 98 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 71 97 74 99 75 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 021901
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
201 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
ARE VERY SLOW TO DECREASE. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MODERATELY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WIN THE DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO BUT CHANCE IS WELL
BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. FRIDAY AFTN COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE FCST AREA WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. IT LOOKS THOUGH THAT ONLY THE FRINGES OF THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL GET TO ERN NM AND THINK THAT FOR ONE MORE DAY WILL SEE
A LACK OF STORMS IN THE FCST AREA AND WILL FAVOR POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE 15 PCT LEVELS IN THE GRIDS. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE AND SEE LITTLE REASON FOR STRAYING.
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL TRANSLATE EWRD AND
FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND EVOLVE TOWARD A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PATTERN BY EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
BEFORE RIDGING SETS IN BY MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF
THE CWFA AND THUS HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE WRN ROWS OF COUNTIES. AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP
TRIGGER SOME STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE
NWRN HALF OF THE FA. GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MIXED MESSAGE AS TO HOW
FAR/QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND THIS PROVIDES
ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY FOR EXTENT/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. AS MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BDRY ON THE WRN SIDE
OF THE WRN GULF HIGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME STRONG...SHOULD DEVELOP. BY SUNDAY EVENING...IN ADDITION TO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...NW FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT AN MCS MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM NM. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY
NIGHT. AFTER TUESDAY...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND ENSUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 91 66 94 66 / 0 10 10 20 30
TULIA 65 91 68 94 67 / 0 10 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 66 91 69 94 68 / 0 10 10 20 20
LEVELLAND 66 92 69 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 69 95 71 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 20
DENVER CITY 67 93 69 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 67 94 70 95 71 / 0 10 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 71 98 72 99 72 / 0 10 10 20 20
SPUR 69 97 72 97 73 / 0 10 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 71 99 74 100 75 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/26
000
FXUS64 KBRO 021837
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
137 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY FOCUSED INITIALLY ON THE CROSSING OF
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE GULF. THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS SINCE STARTED MOVING
MORE WESTERLY ALONG US83. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN POPPING UP DUE TO THE
AREA BEING IN A GAP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NM AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS GAP WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW...ALLOWING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...CAPPING THE REGION
AND PUTTING A STOP TO THE SEABREEZE SPARKING CONVECTION. IT WILL
ALSO SIGNAL THE RETURN TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RECORD HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AT
BRO HRL AND MFE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 110 AT TIMES.
EXPECT THE HEAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE MID
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE PULSE TYPE
STORMS THAT ACTIVATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND A BOUNDARY MOVING
ASHORE FROM THE GULF. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRED IN HEAVY RAIN
AT BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN. ONCE THROUGH THE MID
VALLEY...CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE AND SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A REPEAT IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BOY020 REPORTS LIGHT ESE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS NEAR 2
FEET INCLUDING 1 FOOT OF ESE SWELL. LIGHT TO MDT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WILL PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES WEST GULF WEATHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST TODAY AND FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE MOVES NORTH FROM THE SW GULF. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN
NORTH AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE LATE SUNDAY AND LATE MONDAY
WHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS MAY PROMPT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. SEAS WILL AT TIMES BUILD TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 94 78 95 / 20 50 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 76 95 76 97 / 20 50 10 10
HARLINGEN 76 98 76 99 / 20 50 10 10
MCALLEN 77 99 77 100 / 10 30 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 104 77 104 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 88 81 88 / 20 50 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
64/54
000
FXUS64 KEWX 021746
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW GUSTS COULD PICK UP IN THE EARLY EVENING FROM THE
SEA BREEZE ALONG I-35, BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY BELOW 15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW HIGHER PWS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. HAVE KEPT 10 POPS FOR THE
FAR SOUTH AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING A
LITTLE WARMER THAN ONGOING GRIDS SHOWED AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE IN A FEW SPOTS. HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY 17-18Z AT ALL SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
IN WAKE OF THE S/W TROF THAT PASSED OVER AND TO THE EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY...A WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY...AND FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND PERSIST. THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF HOT AFTERNOONS AGAIN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...TO THE NORTH
THE STORM TRACK ONCE AGAIN COULD BRING A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE ALOFT TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PER TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW WEEKS WITH THESE PATTERNS SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER THE
EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN...
AND THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE TO PART OF THURSDAY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD...AS THE HEIGHT FIELD WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COULD STILL ALLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM
THE EAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND BRING MORE CLOUDS...
MODERATED DAYTIME HIGHS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN AND EVE
SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 76 102 77 101 / 10 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101 72 101 74 101 / 10 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 102 74 101 74 100 / 10 - 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 98 75 99 / - - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 99 78 100 / 10 10 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 100 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 101 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 101 74 100 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 74 100 74 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 77 100 77 100 / 10 - 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 101 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/18
000
FXUS64 KCRP 021743
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD RWS/TSTMS POSSB INLAND THIS AFTN ALONG AND W OF
AN ALI-VCT LINE...AND EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS RIO GRANDE PLAINS FM
COT-LRD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS THRU THE AFTN...EVE AND OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY MVFR BR POSSB TOMORROW BEA-VCT FM 11Z-13Z. ISOLD RWS ALSO
POSSB TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG THE COAST FM NGP-RKP-PKV.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND
TOMORROW. 12Z CRP SOUNDING CAME IN AT 2.07"...WITH GOES SOUNDER
SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWS LURKING OFFSHORE. A BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ORIENTED ALONG
AN EAST-WEST AXIS FROM FLORIDA TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TEMPORARILY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER THIS AREA AS DIVERGENT ZONE SETS UP BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE.
HOWEVER...THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME THE FOCUS OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INLAND.
BEST CHANCES MAY BE ORIENTED FROM NQI-ALI-HBV THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
GOES SOUNDER INDICATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER TONGUE OF MOISTURE...AND
THE EXTENDING OUT TOWARDS LRD IN THE EARLY EVENING. MADE SOME VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS/WX IN THE UPDATE. ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE DECK OF ALTOCU HAS DEVELOPED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 95 77 98 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 74 98 76 99 77 / 10 20 10 20 10
LAREDO 81 103 81 106 82 / 20 20 20 10 10
ALICE 76 100 78 103 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 79 93 81 94 82 / 20 20 10 20 10
COTULLA 75 101 77 104 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 98 77 100 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 92 80 93 81 / 20 20 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KLUB 021734
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
DOWNWARD MOVEMENT FROM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFTN CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTN. NO THUNDER
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 03/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. LEE SFC TROF
COULD START TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT AND WINDS COULD STAY UP HELPING
TO KEEP THE BL MIXED OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES MADE.
MODELS STILL AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE SW CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...THIS WILL PUT THE CWA UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY...WITH A SFC LEE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM SE CO INTO
EASTERN NM. WRF-NAM HAS BACKED OFF IN QPF GENERATION ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH FRI AFTN/EVNG IN WEAK CAPE AND MINIMAL CIN ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO STILL FORECAST THE IMPROVED DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING TOWARD OR INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND
THEREFORE THINK INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE ARE WORTH
MAINTAINING FOR NOW. BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEND
FURTHER TO THE EAST FROM NM...WITH THE PLUME LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NW ZONES /IF NOT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST/. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS FOR THE 4TH...WITH THE
NORTH AND NW ZONES MOST FAVORED. STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH CONVECTION ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE NORTH IT WILL GIVE THE FRONT A PUSH...WITH SAID
FRONT LIKELY EDGING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT/OUTFLOW
WILL BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTN...WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT COMPLEX ROLLING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO COULD REPLAY ITSELF AGAIN ON
MONDAY...THOUGH THE FRONT MAY BE SHIFTED EVEN FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE
GIVEN PROGGED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ AND
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM VALUES OF 20-35 KTS/ BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT AND WARM
THINGS UP AGAIN. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BUILDING RIDGE SO IT MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 64 94 66 92 / 0 0 20 20 20
TULIA 94 64 95 67 93 / 0 0 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 95 64 95 68 93 / 0 0 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 94 66 95 68 95 / 0 0 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 94 67 96 70 95 / 0 0 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 93 68 95 69 96 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 95 68 95 69 96 / 0 0 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 100 70 100 72 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
SPUR 97 70 98 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 99 71 100 75 100 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KEWX 021725
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW HIGHER PWS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. HOWEVER, DEVELOPING CUMULUS
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY SUGGESTS STILL AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING
A LITTLE WARMER THAN ONGOING GRIDS SHOWED AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE IN A FEW SPOTS. HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE,
THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY 17-18Z AT ALL SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
IN WAKE OF THE S/W TROF THAT PASSED OVER AND TO THE EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY...A WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY...AND FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND PERSIST. THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF HOT AFTERNOONS AGAIN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...TO THE NORTH
THE STORM TRACK ONCE AGAIN COULD BRING A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE ALOFT TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PER TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW WEEKS WITH THESE PATTERNS SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER THE
EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN...
AND THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE TO PART OF THURSDAY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD...AS THE HEIGHT FIELD WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COULD STILL ALLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM
THE EAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND BRING MORE CLOUDS...
MODERATED DAYTIME HIGHS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN AND EVE
SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 76 102 77 101 / 10 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 102 72 101 74 101 / 10 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 102 74 101 74 100 / 10 - 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 98 75 99 / 10 - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 99 78 100 / 10 10 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 100 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 101 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 101 74 100 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 74 100 74 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 77 100 77 100 / 10 - 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 101 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/18
000
FXUS64 KFWD 021723 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT DOMINATES. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY...
AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
THE DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED...AND HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE RETREATING RIDGE LETS SOME LOW POPS INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SPREADING SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NOON...WITH MONDAY PROBABLY THE
WETTEST DAY AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
LOOK FOR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN WILL MAKE SUNDAY A BIT
COOLER...AND WITH MORE RAIN AND CLOUDS ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 103 77 101 80 101 / 5 0 0 0 5
WACO, TX 101 74 100 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
PARIS, TX 98 70 98 75 99 / 5 0 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 101 71 98 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 100 70 99 75 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
DALLAS, TX 103 78 101 81 101 / 5 0 0 0 5
TERRELL, TX 100 72 101 75 99 / 5 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 100 73 100 76 99 / 5 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 100 73 98 75 99 / 5 0 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/58
000
FXUS64 KSJT 021714
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE BELOW FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD TSRA
DVLPMT IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 67 CORRIDOR BTWN
18Z AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPTD TO BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND
TAFS IF NEEDED. JUST LIKE THIS MORNING...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT KJCT AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MODEL DUE TO
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEY.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INSERT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...
BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTORM
DVLPMT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT STORMS POPPED UP FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPTD YESTERDAY...I CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME DVLPMT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INSERT A 10
POP ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS UP IN THE NEAR TERM AND ADJUSTED
HIGHS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LACY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5 MILES IN
LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. MAINLY SE-S
WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS... BUT VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE BIT OF ACCAS HAS REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. AND NO SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING EITHER.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SO
CLIMBING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESSES...EXPECT TO AGAIN
APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE SEEN
SOME RAINFALL OVER THE LEAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO WET SOILS MAY
MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AT LEAST IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE...AND THEN
PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA...HAVE
EXPANDED THE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 72 99 75 99 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 70 100 73 100 75 / 10 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 70 96 74 99 75 / 10 10 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 021650
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1150 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INSERT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME TSTORM
DVLPMT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT STORMS POPPED UP FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPTD YESTERDAY...I CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME DVLPMT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE INSERT A 10
POP ISOLATED TSTORM MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO TWEAKED DEWPOINTS UP IN THE NEAR TERM AND ADJUSTED
HIGHS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5 MILES IN
LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. MAINLY SE-S
WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS... BUT VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE BIT OF ACCAS HAS REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. AND NO SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING EITHER.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SO
CLIMBING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESSES...EXPECT TO AGAIN
APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE SEEN
SOME RAINFALL OVER THE LEAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO WET SOILS MAY
MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AT LEAST IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE...AND THEN
PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA...HAVE
EXPANDED THE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 98 72 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 0 10
SAN ANGELO 96 70 100 73 100 / 10 10 0 0 10
JUNCTION 96 70 96 74 99 / 10 10 10 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KAMA 021644 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT GUY SHOULD DECREASE BY
EARLY EVENING. MAY SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SKIES
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THIS FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER
AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW HIGH BASED
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE
MID 20 KNOT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.
JJB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A LACK OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN TX BY LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ALSO
FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. FEEL
SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS EXPERIENCING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RESULTING IN
QPF TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A QUARTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY AND OVER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MUCH
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT AND UNSETTLED
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/10
000
FXUS64 KFWD 021628 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 98 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH LESS THAN 6 KNOTS.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
THE DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED...AND HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE RETREATING RIDGE LETS SOME LOW POPS INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SPREADING SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NOON...WITH MONDAY PROBABLY THE
WETTEST DAY AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
LOOK FOR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN WILL MAKE SUNDAY A BIT
COOLER...AND WITH MORE RAIN AND CLOUDS ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 103 77 101 80 101 / 5 0 0 0 5
WACO, TX 101 74 100 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
PARIS, TX 98 70 98 75 99 / 5 0 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 101 71 98 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 100 70 99 75 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
DALLAS, TX 103 78 101 81 101 / 5 0 0 0 5
TERRELL, TX 100 72 101 75 99 / 5 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 100 73 100 76 99 / 5 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 100 73 98 75 99 / 5 0 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58
000
FXUS64 KEWX 021615
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1115 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW HIGHER PWS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH. HAVE KEPT 10 POPS FOR THE
FAR SOUTH AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING A
LITTLE WARMER THAN ONGOING GRIDS SHOWED AND HAVE BOOSTED HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE IN A FEW SPOTS. HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY 17-18Z AT ALL SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
IN WAKE OF THE S/W TROF THAT PASSED OVER AND TO THE EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY...A WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY...AND FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND PERSIST. THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF HOT AFTERNOONS AGAIN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...TO THE NORTH
THE STORM TRACK ONCE AGAIN COULD BRING A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE ALOFT TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PER TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW WEEKS WITH THESE PATTERNS SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER THE
EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN...
AND THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE TO PART OF THURSDAY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD...AS THE HEIGHT FIELD WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COULD STILL ALLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM
THE EAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND BRING MORE CLOUDS...
MODERATED DAYTIME HIGHS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN AND EVE
SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 76 102 77 101 / 10 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101 72 101 74 101 / 10 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 102 74 101 74 100 / 10 - 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 98 75 99 / - - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 99 78 100 / 10 10 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 100 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 101 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 101 74 100 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 74 100 74 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 77 100 77 100 / 10 - 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 101 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/18
000
FXUS64 KHGX 021546
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1046 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE A RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AND
FOG WILL THIN OUT THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...HAVE KEPT CBS OUT OF THE TAFS. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES WILL BE LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. UPPER HIGH
CENTER OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS FRIDAY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MID LEVELS
HAS STARTED TO WARM UP THEN OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT MUCH
SOUTHWARD. WE WILL INDICATE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS (ISOLATED)
NEAR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MAX
READINGS HOVERING NEAR 100 AND PROBABLY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK FAR NORTHERN ZONES MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENOUGH
MIXING SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST TO EASTERN TX/WESTERN
LA SATURDAY. DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH/LOW EARLY NEXT OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL TEND TO PUSH UPPER RIDGE BACK WEST RESULTING IN
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER TEXAS. TAIL END OF UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES INCREASING
LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY WITH TRAILING END OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSSIBLY PUSHING SOUTH JUST EAST OF OUR CWFA. (WE SHALL SEE). WE
SHALL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST
ZONES AND AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF EXTENDED PORTION OF ZFPHGX.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES NEXT
WEEK. 37
MARINE...
A WEAK GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND SEAS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO CAUTION CRITERIA
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FEET
(POSSIBLY APPROACHING CAUTION LEVELS) BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING. SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 101 74 101 77 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 76 99 78 98 / 10 10 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 94 81 92 81 92 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
000
FXUS64 KCRP 021528
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1028 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND
TOMORROW. 12Z CRP SOUNDING CAME IN AT 2.07"...WITH GOES SOUNDER
SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWS LURKING OFFSHORE. A BAND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS ORIENTED ALONG
AN EAST-WEST AXIS FROM FLORIDA TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TEMPORARILY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER THIS AREA AS DIVERGENT ZONE SETS UP BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE.
HOWEVER...THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL THEN BECOME THE FOCUS OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INLAND.
BEST CHANCES MAY BE ORIENTED FROM NQI-ALI-HBV THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
GOES SOUNDER INDICATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER TONGUE OF MOISTURE...AND
THE EXTENDING OUT TOWARDS LRD IN THE EARLY EVENING. MADE SOME VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS/WX IN THE UPDATE. ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE DECK OF ALTOCU HAS DEVELOPED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 76 95 77 98 / 10 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 100 74 98 76 99 / 10 10 20 10 20
LAREDO 105 81 103 81 106 / 10 20 20 20 10
ALICE 102 76 100 78 103 / 20 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 93 79 93 81 94 / 10 20 20 10 20
COTULLA 103 75 101 77 104 / 10 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 99 77 98 77 100 / 20 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 92 80 92 80 93 / 10 20 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JR/76...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KMAF 021442
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
942 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
12Z KMAF RAOB INDICATES A VERY MOIST AMS IN PLACE...W/SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60SF...A PWAT OF 1.43 INCHES...AND A K-INDEX
OF 40C. HOWEVER...BETTER THETA-E LIES TO THE SOUTH...WHERE MODELS
DEVELOP CONVECTION BY 18Z. ALSO...SOUNDING SUGGESTS TEMP GRIDS
NEED TO BE LOWERED A SKOSH. WE/LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED IN A
COUPLE OF HRS...FOR A CU FIELD W/BASES IN THE 35 KFT-05 KFT RANGE.
OTHERWISE...SE SFC FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
000
FXUS64 KBRO 021425
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
925 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED PW OF 2.1 INCHES. DEEP MOISTURE AREAWIDE
AND MINIMAL CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...WHICH WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. SIGNS
OF THIS ARE EVIDENT OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING ASHORE. STORMS SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED LIGHT SOUTHERLY STORM
MOTION...SO A FEW AREAS COULD SEE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AT TIMES. UPDATE WILL BE OUT MOMENTARILY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED GULF SHOWERS IS AHEAD. THESE SHOWERS ARE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND
SOME SPRINKLES...PRIMARILY TO THE COASTAL AREAS... DURING THE DAY.
IN THE MEAN TIME...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. AMPLE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT A WEAK SEA
BREEZE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ALSO SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW AS THE SOUNDING SHOWS LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT. SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.
MID CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH...AND MORE SUN MAY ALSO DRIVE A MORE
ACTIVE SHOWER DAY AROUND THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
&&
.MARINE...
BOY020 REPORTS VERY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE ESE THIS MORNING WITH
SEAS NEAR 2 FEET INCLUDING 1 FOOT OF ESE SWELL. LIGHT TO MDT WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WILL PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEST GULF WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
ALSO PERSIST TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH FROM THE SW
GULF. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN NORTH AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE
LATE SUNDAY AND LATE MONDAY WHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS MAY
PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS WILL AT TIMES BUILD TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND A 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WITH A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
INVERTED 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COAST.
WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
END TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT MAY STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
64/53/HART
000
FXUS64 KHGX 021201
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
701 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS AND
FOG WILL THIN OUT THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY...HAVE KEPT CBS OUT OF THE TAFS. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES WILL BE LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. UPPER HIGH
CENTER OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS FRIDAY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MID LEVELS
HAS STARTED TO WARM UP THEN OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT MUCH
SOUTHWARD. WE WILL INDICATE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS (ISOLATED)
NEAR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MAX
READINGS HOVERING NEAR 100 AND PROBABLY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK FAR NORTHERN ZONES MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENOUGH
MIXING SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST TO EASTERN TX/WESTERN
LA SATURDAY. DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH/LOW EARLY NEXT OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL TEND TO PUSH UPPER RIDGE BACK WEST RESULTING IN
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER TEXAS. TAIL END OF UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES INCREASING
LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY WITH TRAILING END OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSSIBLY PUSHING SOUTH JUST EAST OF OUR CWFA. (WE SHALL SEE). WE
SHALL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST
ZONES AND AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF EXTENDED PORTION OF ZFPHGX.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES NEXT
WEEK. 37
MARINE...
A WEAK GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND SEAS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO CAUTION CRITERIA
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FEET
(POSSIBLY APPROACHING CAUTION LEVELS) BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING. SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 101 74 101 77 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 76 99 78 98 / 10 10 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 94 81 92 81 92 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KCRP 021143 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS (3-5SM BR) ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE FRI
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS WILL NOT BE
SHOWN IN IN TAFS DO TO LOW PROBABILITY 10-20%.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INCREASE W/ THE HELP OF
POSITIVE H85 THETA-E ADVECTION TO PROVIDE ISOLD SHRA/TSRAS ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN LOWER FORECAST PWS (1.8-1.9 INCHES) HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO AROUND 10% AREA WIDE FOR TODAY AND 10-20% OUT
WEST THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE DEEPER MOISTURE W/ 2+ INCH PWS
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND FRI BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
FROM THE NORTH. BASED ON THIS THINK THE GFS IS A BIT OVERDONE WRT
POPS AND QPF AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY ISOLD POPS (20%) FOR
FRI. BASED ON TRENDS WILL FORECAST HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
HIGHEST MOS FOR MOST PART. THIS STILL MEANS TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY...BUT EVEN SO LOTS OF
100S ARE LIKELY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 TODAY AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
ON FRI.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AS A
MID/UPR LEVEL ANTICYCLONE GENERATES SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
SOUTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENHANCED WAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES AROUND
LAREDO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ENTERS SOUTH
TEXAS. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK...IF ONLY BY 1 OR
2 DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 95 77 98 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
VICTORIA 74 98 76 99 77 / 10 20 10 20 10
LAREDO 81 103 81 106 82 / 20 20 20 10 10
ALICE 76 100 78 103 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 79 93 81 94 82 / 20 20 10 20 10
COTULLA 75 101 77 104 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 98 77 100 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 92 80 93 81 / 20 20 10 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MG/88...SHORT TERM
TM/95...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KAMA 021138 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW HIGH BASED
CU MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02Z WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE
MID 20 KNOT RANGE DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.
JJB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A LACK OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN TX BY LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ALSO
FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. FEEL
SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS EXPERIENCING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RESULTING IN
QPF TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A QUARTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY AND OVER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MUCH
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT AND UNSETTLED
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/11
000
FXUS64 KEWX 021127
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY 17-18Z AT ALL SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
IN WAKE OF THE S/W TROF THAT PASSED OVER AND TO THE EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY...A WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY...AND FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND PERSIST. THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF HOT AFTERNOONS AGAIN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...TO THE NORTH
THE STORM TRACK ONCE AGAIN COULD BRING A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE ALOFT TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PER TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW WEEKS WITH THESE PATTERNS SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER THE
EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN...
AND THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE TO PART OF THURSDAY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD...AS THE HEIGHT FIELD WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COULD STILL ALLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM
THE EAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND BRING MORE CLOUDS...
MODERATED DAYTIME HIGHS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN AND EVE
SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 76 102 77 101 / 10 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 72 101 74 101 / 10 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 74 101 74 100 / 10 - 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 98 75 99 / - - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 77 99 78 100 / 10 10 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 100 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 101 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 100 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 74 100 74 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 77 100 77 100 / 10 - 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 101 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/25
000
FXUS64 KLUB 021123 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. LEE SFC TROF
COULD START TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT AND WINDS COULD STAY UP HELPING
TO KEEP THE BL MIXED OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES MADE.
MODELS STILL AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE SW CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...THIS WILL PUT THE CWA UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY...WITH A SFC LEE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM SE CO INTO
EASTERN NM. WRF-NAM HAS BACKED OFF IN QPF GENERATION ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH FRI AFTN/EVNG IN WEAK CAPE AND MINIMAL CIN ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO STILL FORECAST THE IMPROVED DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING TOWARD OR INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND
THEREFORE THINK INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE ARE WORTH
MAINTAINING FOR NOW. BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEND
FURTHER TO THE EAST FROM NM...WITH THE PLUME LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NW ZONES /IF NOT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST/. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS FOR THE 4TH...WITH THE
NORTH AND NW ZONES MOST FAVORED. STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH CONVECTION ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE NORTH IT WILL GIVE THE FRONT A PUSH...WITH SAID
FRONT LIKELY EDGING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT/OUTFLOW
WILL BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTN...WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT COMPLEX ROLLING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO COULD REPLAY ITSELF AGAIN ON
MONDAY...THOUGH THE FRONT MAY BE SHIFTED EVEN FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE
GIVEN PROGGED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ AND
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM VALUES OF 20-35 KTS/ BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT AND WARM
THINGS UP AGAIN. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BUILDING RIDGE SO IT MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 64 94 66 92 / 0 0 20 20 20
TULIA 94 64 95 67 93 / 0 0 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 95 64 95 68 93 / 0 0 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 94 66 95 68 95 / 0 0 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 94 67 96 70 95 / 0 0 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 93 68 95 69 96 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 95 68 95 69 96 / 0 0 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 100 70 100 72 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
SPUR 97 70 98 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 99 71 100 75 100 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 021103
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
603 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH LESS THAN 6 KNOTS.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
THE DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED...AND HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE RETREATING RIDGE LETS SOME LOW POPS INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SPREADING SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NOON...WITH MONDAY PROBABLY THE
WETTEST DAY AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
LOOK FOR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN WILL MAKE SUNDAY A BIT
COOLER...AND WITH MORE RAIN AND CLOUDS ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 102 77 101 80 101 / 5 0 0 0 5
WACO, TX 99 74 100 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
PARIS, TX 98 70 98 75 99 / 5 0 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 98 71 98 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 100 70 99 75 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
DALLAS, TX 103 78 101 81 101 / 5 0 0 0 5
TERRELL, TX 100 72 101 75 99 / 5 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 99 73 100 76 99 / 5 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 100 73 98 75 99 / 5 0 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/84
000
FXUS64 KSJT 021056
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
556 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 5 MILES IN
LOCALIZED AREAS THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. MAINLY SE-S
WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS... BUT VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE BIT OF ACCAS HAS REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. AND NO SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING EITHER.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SO
CLIMBING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESSES...EXPECT TO AGAIN
APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE SEEN
SOME RAINFALL OVER THE LEAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO WET SOILS MAY
MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AT LEAST IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
LONG TERM...
MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE...AND THEN
PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA...HAVE
EXPANDED THE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 98 72 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 0 10
SAN ANGELO 98 70 100 73 100 / 0 10 0 0 10
JUNCTION 99 70 96 74 99 / 0 10 10 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
000
FXUS64 KMAF 021046
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE HOLDING THIS MORNING AS A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE NW AND TEND TO DISSIPATE ACRS FST/MAF/HOB. FARTHER W FEW MID
CLOUDS AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY MOIST AXIS. NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING
THAT BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL GENERALLY BE W OF THE TAF
SITES..BUT MAY NEAR CNM. OTHERWISE SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU NEXT
24HRS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED POSITIONED ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS IS BEGINNING TO INCH ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE SURFACE...KS HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW TO BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...LEADING TO THE SUSTAINMENT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
WARMING H85 TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA
IN RESPONSE TO THE MIGRATING UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. MID-LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS TO SHIFT WEST AND WILL BECOME ALIGNED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THIS FEATURE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX AS SHEAR ALOFT WILL REMAIN MEAGER AT BEST.
HOWEVER...WRF/GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DEEP DRY
ADIABATIC SUB CLOUD LAYER...CHARACTERISTIC OF AN INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDING. THUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 800-1200 J/KG. STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
GOING OWING TO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY GENERATION ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OUT WEST MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS OUT WEST WHILE
MAINTAINING VERY LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
BY TONIGHT...THE SAID UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAK/ELONGATE AS
TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALONG THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL GULF WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION HELPING TO DIMINISH ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED BY FRI AS WARMING H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS
TOWARDS THE TX PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN SE NM ZONES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE FLATTENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL BEGIN SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA BY AFTERNOON. FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNS THE
FEATURE.
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEAK REALLY BEGINS TO DECREASE
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TOWARDS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP. GFS ALSO DEVELOPS WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY LATE MONDAY HOWEVER QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO
UPPER RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OFF
THE WEST COAST. BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING/DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LONGER AND STALLS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH ENSURES CONTINUED
PRECIP CHANCES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z
CANADIAN GEM SUPPORTS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT
IN RECENT RUNS. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES AS QUITE A LARGE MARGIN EXISTS BETWEEN SUGGESTED H85 TEMPS
AND PRECIP. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO EXPECTED TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE BEST PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS WILL RESIDE...HOWEVER HAVE NOT MADE ANY SUSTAINABLE CHANCES
TO THE WX/POP GRIDS AND WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS. BY MID-WEEK
HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. THUS CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TOWARDS THE CONCLUSION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 021028
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
423 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE BIT OF ACCAS HAS REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. AND NO SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING EITHER.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SO
CLIMBING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESSES...EXPECT TO AGAIN
APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE SEEN
SOME RAINFALL OVER THE LEAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO WET SOILS MAY
MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AT LEAST IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE...AND THEN
PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA...HAVE
EXPANDED THE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 98 72 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 0 10
SAN ANGELO 98 70 100 73 100 / 0 10 0 0 10
JUNCTION 99 70 96 74 99 / 0 10 10 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020940
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
340 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AND MORE
FREQUENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW
OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED AND LESS FREQUENT. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING
THE PERIOD TO ABOVE NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS MOST THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS DO INDICATE THAT THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE THE EAST
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA TO DRIFT
BACK OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED STORMS TO THE EAST OF THE
RIVER.
MODELS PROJECT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO
NEARLY 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE EXTRA MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER ZONES WEST OF
THE RIVER. MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA THAT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS.
FOR SUNDAY...A STABLE WEST FLOW WILL PUSH A LOT OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST OF AREA...DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE
ISOLATED CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL SUPPRESS SOME CONVECTION. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING WILL STILL RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL HAVE BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN FALL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 02/1200Z-03/1200Z...
SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE WEST OF A KDMN-KTCS LINE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THAT LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS
OF MVFR FOR CIGS AND VSBY IN AND NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SFC
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SE...EXCEPT NEAR STORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST TODAY AND
ALLOW A DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR
TO THE EAST OF THE RIVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS PLUME OF MOISTURES FLOWS OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DROP BACK TO A MORE ISOLATED
PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STAY UP
DURING THE PERIOD WITH DECENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 94 71 94 73 93 / 10 20 20 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA TX 91 68 90 64 90 / 10 20 20 20 20
LAS CRUCES 93 68 94 70 92 / 20 20 20 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 93 67 92 66 91 / 10 20 30 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 69 51 69 51 68 / 20 20 30 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 92 65 91 65 91 / 20 30 30 30 30
SILVER CITY 87 60 87 59 87 / 30 30 30 30 30
DEMING 94 66 93 66 94 / 20 30 20 30 20
LORDSBURG 93 65 92 65 93 / 30 30 30 30 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04
000
FXUS64 KSJT 020923
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
423 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE BIT OF ACCAS HAS REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. AND NO SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING EITHER.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SO
CLIMBING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESSES...EXPECT TO AGAIN
APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE SEEN
SOME RAINFALL OVER THE LEAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO WE SOILS MAY
MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AT LEAST IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE...AND THEN
PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW BY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE AREA...HAVE
EXPANDED THE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 98 72 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 0 10
SAN ANGELO 98 70 100 73 100 / 0 10 0 0 10
JUNCTION 99 70 96 74 99 / 0 10 10 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KCRP 020922
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INCREASE W/ THE HELP OF
POSITIVE H85 THETA-E ADVECTION TO PROVIDE ISOLD SHRA/TSRAS ACROSS
THE REGION. GIVEN LOWER FORECAST PWS (1.8-1.9 INCHES) HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO AROUND 10% AREA WIDE FOR TODAY AND 10-20% OUT
WEST THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE DEEPER MOISTURE W/ 2+ INCH PWS
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND FRI BUT AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
FROM THE NORTH. BASED ON THIS THINK THE GFS IS A BIT OVERDONE WRT
POPS AND QPF AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY ISOLD POPS (20%) FOR
FRI. BASED ON TRENDS WILL FORECAST HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
HIGHEST MOS FOR MOST PART. THIS STILL MEANS TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY...BUT EVEN SO LOTS OF
100S ARE LIKELY WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 TODAY AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
ON FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AS A
MID/UPR LEVEL ANTICYCLONE GENERATES SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
SOUTH TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENHANCED WAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 110 DEGREES AROUND
LAREDO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ENTERS SOUTH
TEXAS. LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK...IF ONLY BY 1 OR
2 DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 97 76 95 77 98 / 10 10 20 10 20
VICTORIA 100 74 98 76 99 / 10 10 20 10 20
LAREDO 105 81 103 81 106 / 10 20 20 20 10
ALICE 102 76 100 78 103 / 10 10 20 10 20
ROCKPORT 93 79 93 81 94 / 10 20 20 10 20
COTULLA 103 75 101 77 104 / 10 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 99 77 98 77 100 / 10 10 20 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 92 80 92 80 93 / 10 20 20 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MJG...SHORT TERM
TM/95...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KEWX 020912
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
412 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
IN WAKE OF THE S/W TROF THAT PASSED OVER AND TO THE EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY...A WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY...AND FRIDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND PERSIST. THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN WILL BRING THE RETURN OF HOT AFTERNOONS AGAIN.
LATE THIS WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...TO THE NORTH
THE STORM TRACK ONCE AGAIN COULD BRING A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE ALOFT TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PER TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW WEEKS WITH THESE PATTERNS SHOWED THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER THE
EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN...
AND THIS TREND COULD CONTINUE TO PART OF THURSDAY. BY LATE NEXT
WEEK TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD...AS THE HEIGHT FIELD WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COULD STILL ALLOW WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM
THE EAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND BRING MORE CLOUDS...
MODERATED DAYTIME HIGHS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN AND EVE
SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND TO THE EARLY PART OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 76 102 77 101 / 10 - 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 72 101 74 101 / 10 - 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 74 101 74 100 / 10 - 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 98 75 99 / - - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 77 99 78 100 / 10 10 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 100 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 101 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 100 75 100 / 10 - 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 74 100 74 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 77 100 77 100 / 10 - 10 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 101 76 100 / 10 - 10 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/25
000
FXUS64 KMAF 020901
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
401 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED POSITIONED ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS IS BEGINNING TO INCH ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE SURFACE...KS HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW TO BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED TODAY...LEADING TO THE SUSTAINMENT OF SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
WARMING H85 TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA
IN RESPONSE TO THE MIGRATING UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. MID-LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS TO SHIFT WEST AND WILL BECOME ALIGNED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WEST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THIS FEATURE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX AS SHEAR ALOFT WILL REMAIN MEAGER AT BEST.
HOWEVER...WRF/GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DEEP DRY
ADIABATIC SUB CLOUD LAYER...CHARACTERISTIC OF AN INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDING. THUS FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 800-1200 J/KG. STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
GOING OWING TO A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY GENERATION ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OUT WEST MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. HAVE INCREASED POPS OUT WEST WHILE
MAINTAINING VERY LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
BY TONIGHT...THE SAID UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAK/ELONGATE AS
TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALONG THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL GULF WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION HELPING TO DIMINISH ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED BY FRI AS WARMING H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL NM MOUNTAINS
TOWARDS THE TX PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN SE NM ZONES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE FLATTENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL BEGIN SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA BY AFTERNOON. FEATURE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION SUNDAY EVENING/EARLY MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNS THE
FEATURE.
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEAK REALLY BEGINS TO DECREASE
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TOWARDS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP. GFS ALSO DEVELOPS WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY LATE MONDAY HOWEVER QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO
UPPER RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OFF
THE WEST COAST. BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING/DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LONGER AND STALLS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WHICH ENSURES CONTINUED
PRECIP CHANCES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z
CANADIAN GEM SUPPORTS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT
IN RECENT RUNS. FOR NOW...HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES AS QUITE A LARGE MARGIN EXISTS BETWEEN SUGGESTED H85 TEMPS
AND PRECIP. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO EXPECTED TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE BEST PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS WILL RESIDE...HOWEVER HAVE NOT MADE ANY SUSTAINABLE CHANCES
TO THE WX/POP GRIDS AND WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS. BY MID-WEEK
HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. THUS CAN EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TOWARDS THE CONCLUSION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 94 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 93 69 95 69 / 10 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 94 72 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 93 72 96 72 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 86 67 90 67 / 20 20 10 10
HOBBS NM 96 69 96 70 / 10 0 10 10
MARFA TX 85 59 89 61 / 20 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 94 70 96 73 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA TX 95 71 97 74 / 0 0 0 10
WINK TX 97 73 100 74 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
32
000
FXUS64 KHGX 020854
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
354 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES WILL BE LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. UPPER HIGH
CENTER OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS FRIDAY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MID LEVELS
HAS STARTED TO WARM UP THEN OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT NOT MUCH
SOUTHWARD. WE WILL INDICATE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POPS (ISOLATED)
NEAR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MAX
READINGS HOVERING NEAR 100 AND PROBABLY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK FAR NORTHERN ZONES MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENOUGH
MIXING SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST TO EASTERN TX/WESTERN
LA SATURDAY. DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH/LOW EARLY NEXT OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL TEND TO PUSH UPPER RIDGE BACK WEST RESULTING IN
LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER TEXAS. TAIL END OF UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES INCREASING
LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY WITH TRAILING END OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSSIBLY PUSHING SOUTH JUST EAST OF OUR CWFA. (WE SHALL SEE). WE
SHALL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST
ZONES AND AREA WIDE FOR THE REST OF EXTENDED PORTION OF ZFPHGX.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER GETTING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES NEXT
WEEK. 37
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND SEAS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO CAUTION CRITERIA
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FEET
(POSSIBLY APPROACHING CAUTION LEVELS) BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING. SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 101 74 101 77 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 76 99 78 98 / 10 10 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 94 81 92 81 92 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 020837
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD MEAN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS
FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. LEE SFC TROF
COULD START TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT AND WINDS COULD STAY UP HELPING
TO KEEP THE BL MIXED OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING.
JORDAN
&&
.LONG TERM...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES MADE.
MODELS STILL AGREE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE SW CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...THIS WILL PUT THE CWA UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRIDAY...WITH A SFC LEE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM SE CO INTO
EASTERN NM. WRF-NAM HAS BACKED OFF IN QPF GENERATION ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH FRI AFTN/EVNG IN WEAK CAPE AND MINIMAL CIN ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO STILL FORECAST THE IMPROVED DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BENDING TOWARD OR INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES AND
THEREFORE THINK INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE ARE WORTH
MAINTAINING FOR NOW. BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEND
FURTHER TO THE EAST FROM NM...WITH THE PLUME LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NW ZONES /IF NOT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST/. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS FOR THE 4TH...WITH THE
NORTH AND NW ZONES MOST FAVORED. STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH CONVECTION ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE NORTH IT WILL GIVE THE FRONT A PUSH...WITH SAID
FRONT LIKELY EDGING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT/OUTFLOW
WILL BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTN...WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT COMPLEX ROLLING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SCENARIO COULD REPLAY ITSELF AGAIN ON
MONDAY...THOUGH THE FRONT MAY BE SHIFTED EVEN FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE
GIVEN PROGGED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ AND
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM VALUES OF 20-35 KTS/ BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT AND WARM
THINGS UP AGAIN. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BUILDING RIDGE SO IT MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY DRY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 64 94 66 92 / 0 0 20 20 20
TULIA 94 64 95 67 93 / 0 0 10 20 20
PLAINVIEW 95 64 95 68 93 / 0 0 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 94 66 95 68 95 / 0 0 10 20 20
LUBBOCK 95 68 96 70 95 / 0 0 10 10 20
DENVER CITY 93 68 95 69 96 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 95 68 95 69 96 / 0 0 10 10 20
CHILDRESS 100 70 100 72 99 / 0 0 10 10 20
SPUR 97 70 98 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 10
ASPERMONT 99 71 100 75 100 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/23
000
FXUS64 KAMA 020820
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A LACK OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN TX BY LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ALSO
FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY
SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. FEEL
SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS EXPERIENCING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RESULTING IN
QPF TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A QUARTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY AND OVER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE TUESDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BECOMING
MORE SEASONABLE WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ONCE AGAIN.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS MUCH
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD FRONT AND UNSETTLED
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LATE DAY AND
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 93 67 94 65 92 / 5 5 10 10 20
BEAVER OK 100 67 102 72 91 / 5 5 10 20 20
BOISE CITY OK 96 65 93 65 93 / 5 10 20 20 20
BORGER TX 97 71 97 72 95 / 5 5 10 10 20
BOYS RANCH TX 97 68 98 67 93 / 5 5 20 10 20
CANYON TX 94 64 94 64 92 / 5 5 20 10 20
CLARENDON TX 96 68 96 70 95 / 5 5 10 10 20
DALHART TX 95 64 94 64 88 / 5 5 20 10 20
GUYMON OK 99 68 100 67 91 / 5 5 20 20 20
HEREFORD TX 92 64 94 64 90 / 5 5 20 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 97 67 99 70 93 / 5 5 10 20 20
PAMPA TX 92 72 95 71 92 / 5 5 10 10 20
SHAMROCK TX 98 70 99 71 95 / 5 5 10 10 20
WELLINGTON TX 98 70 99 72 99 / 5 5 10 10 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/11
000
FXUS64 KFWD 020804
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED...AND HAVE NO POPS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE RETREATING RIDGE LETS SOME LOW POPS INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SPREADING SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NOON...WITH MONDAY PROBABLY THE
WETTEST DAY AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
LOOK FOR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES RETURNING TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN WILL MAKE SUNDAY A BIT
COOLER...AND WITH MORE RAIN AND CLOUDS ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WARMING TREND BEGINS
AGAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 102 77 101 80 101 / 5 0 0 0 5
WACO, TX 99 74 100 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
PARIS, TX 98 70 98 75 99 / 5 0 5 0 5
DENTON, TX 98 71 98 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 100 70 99 75 100 / 5 0 0 0 5
DALLAS, TX 103 78 101 81 101 / 5 0 0 0 5
TERRELL, TX 100 72 101 75 99 / 5 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 99 73 100 76 99 / 5 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE, TX 100 73 98 75 99 / 5 0 5 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KBRO 020801
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND A 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WITH A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
INVERTED 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COAST.
WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
END TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT MAY STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...BOY020 REPORTED WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 1.3 FEET AT 3 SECONDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL IN THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REBUILD BY TUESDAY
WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 77 92 80 / 20 20 30 10
BROWNSVILLE 95 76 95 78 / 20 20 30 10
HARLINGEN 95 76 97 77 / 20 20 30 10
MCALLEN 99 77 99 78 / 20 10 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 104 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 79 87 80 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
61/65
000
FXUS64 KMAF 020546
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNDERNEATH INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT. SE WINDS LESS
THAN 10KTS EXPECTED AND THERE COULD BE A FEW CLOUDS LESS THAN 020
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH DWPNTS NEAR 68 AT MAF. OTHERWISE THIS PM
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL FAVOR
ANY STORMS REMAINING W OF TAF SITES...BUT COULD BE VERY NEAR CNM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2009/
UPDATE...
LAST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO CHANGE POPS.
DISCUSSION...
SOME OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MENTIONED IN THE LAST UPDATE WERE
STILL OVER THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN. WILL SEND ONE MORE UPDATE TO
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MORE OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TOWERING CU OUT THE DOOR. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM. 67
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS A LITTLE.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION WAS ON THE WANE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE WERE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE MUCH CONVECTION EARLIER.
STILL THE TREND WAS DOWN...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOT REVEALING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA FOR ANY RESIDUAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN JUICY AIRMASS. A STORM OR TWO COULD
STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES... DEWPOINTS AND SKY GRIDS
OTHERWISE. UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. 67
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
