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000
FXUS65 KSLC 051518
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
918 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MUCH MORE QUIET DAY IN STORE FOR THE CWA TODAY.
CURRENTLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE 12Z SLC
SOUNDING INDICATED A PW OF ABOUT 0.72 INCHES. THIS CORRELATES WELL
WITH GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE FROM 0.70 TO 0.90 ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY...A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN INVERTED V TYPE PROFILES.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...MADE A MINOR
UPDATE TO INCLUDE MORE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WEST DESERT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AND
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL PERSIST UNTIL
TAKING THE USUALLY DAYTIME SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z. GENERALLY STABLE AIRMASS NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO UTAH
BEGINNING TODAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. MOISTURE
STILL TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER UTAH WILL SPAWN
ADDITIONAL MOUNTAINS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAINLY
OVER NE UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THEN TREND DOWN A BIT OVER THE FAR NORTH AS A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE
SEASONALLY LOW MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER
AVIATION...CONGER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 050845
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
245 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD A DRIER AIRMASS BACK
INTO THE AREA STARTING TODAY...WITH CONTINUED DRYING EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RIDGING OCCURRING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PREPARES TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 400-250MB ACARS WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A
40-60KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET FROM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. 00Z 700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. ADVECTION WAS NEUTRAL WITH +11C AT KSLC
AND UPSTREAM AT KLKN.
00Z KSLC RAOB INDICATES LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE COLUMN
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS FALLEN SLIGHTLY TO
FIFTY SIX HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
GOES SOUNDER AND RUC INDICATE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
FALLEN TO A HALF INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH...AND THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. THIS DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS RIDGING TAKES PLACE
ALOFT. POPS THEREFORE ARE LOWER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A
DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. 21Z SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLES REFLECT THE DRYING TREND IN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AT 18Z...FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SAME GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS LESS
SHEAR THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SUGGESTING THAT ORGANIZED STORMS ARE
LESS LIKELY. DCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN AND EAST
CENTRAL UTAH...SUGGESTING ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP MAY
STILL CARRY A GUSTY WIND THREAT.
THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES DURING THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARMEST DAYS IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING OCCURS ALOFT
MID WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE MID
WEEK AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
UTAH...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT 700MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
AROUND 30-35KTS.
SUMMER HEAT MAY BUILD INTO THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DOMINATE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR +20C DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST. AIRMASS DRYING FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE MORE TERRAIN BASED...LESS INTENSE...AND
LESS WIDESPREAD. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THOUGH THE
WEEK...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 050247
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
847 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD A DRIER AIRMASS BACK
INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED DRYING EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SHORT WAVE OF THE SERIES IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN UTAH PER LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
DESERTS...WITH OUTFLOW WINDS SPREADING EAST IN A LINE FROM DUGWAY
NORTH TO THE WESTERN GSL SHORELINE AT THIS TIME. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH HAVE BEEN COMMONPLACE WITH THIS OUTFLOW...BUT ANTICIPATE SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS PRIOR TO REACHING THE
WASATCH FRONT AS TRENDS ALREADY SUPPORT WEAKENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY DUE TO THE PLETHORA OF WIND SENSITIVE
HOLIDAY OPERATIONS TAKING PLACE UP AND DOWN THE FRONT LATER THIS
EVENING.
DYNAMICS WERE SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF STORM ORGANIZATION LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHWESTERN UTAH.
LOSS OF SOLAR AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE TURNOVER HAS SQUELCHED
MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS REMAIN OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL UTAH WHERE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS NEAR 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING. BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND PEA SIZE
HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THEY DIMINISH. GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR POP
TRENDS OF SCATTERED...TURNING ISOLATED COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
CURRENT REFLECTIVITY COVERAGE ON RADAR COUPLED WITH SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS SUPPORTS THIS TREND...SO WILL LET
PACKAGE RIDE AS IS. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
A BROADER LOOK AT THE CONUS SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE ENCROACHMENT
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. TRAJECTORIES AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ARE USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH A SLOT OF .25 TO .40 INCH PWAT ESTIMATES PUNCHING
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEVADA PER LATEST GOES
SOUNDER. NAM12 BUFR TRENDS DRY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY...BUT THE NORTH REMAINS IN A
MORE MOIST .70 TO .80 INCH SWATH. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ENOUGH PEAK HEATING INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN UTAH AGAIN STARTING MIDDAY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CONTINUE TO
PUMP DRY AIR INTO THE GREAT BASIN...ALLOWING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FROM THEN ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...OUTFLOW FROM EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST
DESERT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING KSLC FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO IT REACHING THE TERMINAL AROUND 04Z.
THAT SAID...A FEW WESTERLY GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THAT
TIME. OUTSIDE OF THIS THREAT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE OVER THE STATE TODAY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR YET
ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE MORE TERRAIN BASED...LESS
INTENSE...AND LESS WIDESPREAD. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THOUGH THE WEEK...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
MERRILL/HOSENFELD/CONGER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 042129
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
329 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN UTAH TODAY.
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS THUS FAR BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN UINTA BASIN AND PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL UTAH. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE HOWEVER
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NEVADA.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN UTAH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO BECOME ORGANIZED CWA-WIDE. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY TODAY. ANYONE VENTURING INTO SLOT
CANYONS OR DRY WASHES TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...THE WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED THROUGH AROUND
18Z HAS BROUGHT A MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE TERMINAL AREA.
EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
CONVECTION OUT ACROSS NE THROUGH E/CNTRL NV AT TIME WILL WORK INTO
THE AREA AROUND MID-EVENING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AT THE TERMINAL
AFTER 07Z. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SE AFTER 05Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE OVER THE STATE TODAY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR YET
ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE MORE TERRAIN BASED...LESS
INTENSE...AND LESS WIDESPREAD. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THOUGH THE WEEK...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
KRUSE/HOSENFELD/CONGER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 041507
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
907 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN UTAH TODAY.
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE FALLEN A
BIT SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING NEAR 0.95 INCHES. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING ALSO INDICATED AROUND 1200 J/KG OF CAPE WITH
LITTLE INHIBITION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR
EXPECT MORE ABUNDANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH
THAN OCCURRED YESTERDAY. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO BECOME
ORGANIZED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY TODAY...EVEN IN THE
SOUTH WHERE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLUGGISH. ANYONE VENTURING INTO
SLOT CANYONS OR DRY WASHES TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 20C
BY FRIDAY. IF THIS VERIFIED...SALT LAKE CITY WOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE 100F.
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NW UT/NV
BORDER AT MID-MORNING HAS SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS EAST TO
NEAR THE KSLC TERMINAL. CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 10KFT...THOUGH BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 7KFT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL AFTER 18Z. THE BEST THREAT
FOR STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 19-01Z. LIGHT W-NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 19Z...WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME
SW PORTION OF UTAH THIS MORNING. THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AND WETTING RAINS WILL REMAIN OVER NRN UTAH WHERE THE AIRMASS SHOWS
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER E/CNTRL THROUGH S/CNTRL
UTAH LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
WETTING RAINS. SOUTHWEST UTAH LOOKS TO BE DRY TODAY.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE STATE...WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LOW RH VALUES ACROSS THE REMAIN
OF THE STATE.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
KRUSE/CONGER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 040845
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
245 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN UTAH TODAY.
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAKENING SYSTEM PROGRESSING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER UPSTREAM A
DEEPER UPPER LOW WAS NEARING 140W/45N. 400-250MB ACARS WIND
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 40-60KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET FROM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NEVADA. 00Z 700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING
BUILDING BEHIND A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. WARM
ADVECTION WAS IN PLACE WITH +11C AT KSLC AND +12C UPSTREAM AT KLKN.
00Z KSLC RAOB INDICATES 3 TO 5C OF WARMING BELOW 600MB AND 3C OF
COOLING ALOFT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
FALLEN TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH. STRONG DRYING WAS OBSERVED ALOFT.
GOES SOUNDER AND RUC INDICATE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS FALLEN
CONSIDERABLY AFTER A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES PASSED OVERHEAD DURING THE
LAST 36 HOURS. MORE RECENTLY...MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING TO ABOUT
AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
AFFECTED MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT INCLUDING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNRISE.
00Z NAM BUFKIT AND 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE SIMILAR
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP TODAY...WITH A BIAS TOWARD SLIGHTLY DRIER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GOOD INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A CHANCE
OF 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND -2C LIFTED INDICES LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. BEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF
30KTS...REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WHERE WEAK WAVES WILL TRAVERSE
OVERHEAD IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. DOWNDRAFT CAPE WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
1000 J/KG...SUGGESTING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF CONVECTION. HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGER
CORES...MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WHERE THE BETTER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR RESIDES.
WHILE NORTHERN UTAH WILL SEE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO ACT AS POTENTIAL TRIGGERS...SOUTHERN UTAH WILL HAVE
TO RELY ON TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS (THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY). THUS...POP GRIDS REFLECT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THOUGH LOWER THAN A COUPLE DAYS AGO...ARE STILL ABOUT
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL DRY OUT THE REGION.
THIS TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH AS RIDGING BUILDS
INTO PLACE. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM AS
THE COLD CORE APPROACHES THE REGION BY MID WEEK. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE STRONGEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES
TO INDICATE WEAKER 700MB FLOW (PREFERRED SOLUTION GIVEN TIME OF
YEAR) THAN THE GFS. STILL A CHANCE OF NEARING WIND ADVISORY LEVEL.
THE EUROPEAN AND GFS (TO A LESSER EXTENT) INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS.
SUMMER HEAT COULD VERY WELL BE ON THE WAY WITH +20C 700MB FORECAST
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AROUND 12Z AS
CONVECTION ABATES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY...BUT
DISTANT...WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY HAVOC WITH THE WINDS UNTIL THEN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND 19Z WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER
20Z AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THE PASSING CONVECTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
WINDS AT THE AIRPORT TO BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS UTAH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST TODAY AND ALLOW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION TO AGAIN DEVELOP. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING DRY ON SUNDAY AND VERY
DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS WILL DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT POOR RECOVERY OF LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AT NIGHT AS
WELL.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
AVIATION...YOUNG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 040217
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
817 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN UTAH TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ID AND NORTHEAST
NV...WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH HAS REMAINED VOID OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER
SOUTH...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST UT.
ALTHOUGH AIRMASS HAS DRIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PER 00Z KSLC
SOUNDING AND GOES PW IMAGERY...AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD APPEAR TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY APPARENT
WHICH LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...INCLUDING 1) SOMEWHAT LIMITED SURFACE HEATING DESPITE
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT GENERALLY RUNNING 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...2) POOR
LAPSE RATES WITHIN 750-550MB LAYER...LIKELY SOMEWHAT ATTRIBUTED TO
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FROM WHICH THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT FULLY RECOVERED...AND 3) LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. AS A RESULT A FAIRLY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LARGER GREAT SALT LAKE BASIN...AND CONVECTION WHICH HAS
ATTEMPTED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE BASIN HAS STRUGGLED GREATLY. HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER POPS THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ID BORDER.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE THE GENERAL DRYING TREND ACROSS SOUTHERN
UT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE
50S ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN UT TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. 00Z NAM AND 18Z GFS SEEM TO BE HINTING AT A
SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY...BASED ON QPF/500MB RH
FIELDS.
&&
.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z. OUTFLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
SALT LAKE WILL LIKELY REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 04Z...RE-
ESTABLISHING A NORTH WIND. SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PREVAIL BY 06Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KSLC 032211
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
411 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN UTAH TODAY
AND TOMORROW. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOTED IN
WESTERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TOWARDS LATE EVENING TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. IF THIS DOES NOT
OCCUR...CURRENT POP FORECAST IS VERY OVERAMBITIOUS AND WILL NEED
TO BE UPDATED. THE MAIN THREATS CONTINUE TO BE SMALL HAIL...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE NAM DEVELOPING
LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADJUST
POPS DOWNWARD IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEAR 100F ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT MONDAY. HELD
OFF FROM GOING THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDED TEMPERATURES UPWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE AREA IS STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH 4Z. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE AGAIN TODAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN
DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD AND MORE TERRAIN BASED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A WARMING...DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA SENDS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE STATE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET NEXT WEEK AS THE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...HOSENFELD
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
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