[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040419
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1219 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BY EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO
THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH/TN
VLYS. ALOFT...UPR AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER SERN
QUEBEC...WITH THE AXIS OF MIDLVL TROF PUSHING OFFSHORE. MID
EVENING RAMSDIS WV IMAGERY DEPICTED PLENTY OF LLVL DRY AIR
ROTATING AROUND BOTTOM PERIMETER OF MIDLVL TROF.
AS WITH YESTERDAY...WIDELY SCT SHRAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE GENERALLY ABATED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO MOVE TWDS
ATLANTIC CANADA OVERNIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HV REMOVED ALL POPS FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT....WITH CLR/MCLR SKIES.
AS EXPECTED WITH AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR NOTED JUST ALOFT...OBS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS RUNNING A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES THUS FAR THIS EVENING. HV UNDERCUT T/TD FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN DROPPING EARLY MORNING LOW VALUES BY 2-3
DEG OR SO...MAINLY OVER THE SE COAST. ERY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE L/M 60S INLAND (ALTHOUGH A FEW UPR 50S LKLY IN NORMAL COOL
SPOTS NW OF RIC AND IVOF SBY)...M/U 60S IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT CLEAR AND DRY WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH BY
MIDDAY BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER E VA SHOULD KEEP THINGS
RELATIVELY CLEAR. BY EVNG HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ESP OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE HIGH MVS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE MVS INTO THE TN VALLEY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO OUR NW COUNTIES BY AFTN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5
INCHES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LVL DRY
AIR (AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC) TO HOLD BACK ANY SIG
CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL LATE EVNG. LOOKING FOR DECENT CLOUD CVR
AROUND TIME FOR FIREWORKS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER.
LOW MVS INTO VA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH FROPA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MON MORNING. CHOSE TO LINGER POPS IN THE SE THROUGH MON
MORNING...BUT CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD
ON SUN DUE TO RA/CLOUDS...AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO MID 80S SE.
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID
80S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
WINDS BECOMING MORE ENE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL FAVOR
THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS (WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW ACRS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. OVERALL THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TELECONNECTION PATTERN
SUPPORTS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN...WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH STRONG VORT
MAX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY WED LEADING TO THAT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL FCST MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AKQ CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
TUE/WED/THU...AND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FRI (AS THE HIGH
TRACKS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A RETURN SLY FLOW).
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SBY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR CONDS TO LAST NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH KEEPING LIGHT NW WINDS (INSTEAD OF CALM) THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM DEVELOPING FOG.
RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SAT EVNG. W AND
NW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SE LATE SAT AFTN AT ECG ORF AND PHF IN
RESPONSE TO A SEA BREEZE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W.
AREAS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE TS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES SAT NIGHT
AND SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ACROSS
OUR AREA. METMOS HAS EXTENDED IFR CIGS AT RIC AND SBY. THAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT BUT BRIEF IFR IS QUITE
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF OUR LOCATIONS.
A DRY PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS RETURN FOR MON THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
TROF CRNTLY MOVG ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS WITH A WND SHFTG TO THE NW
AT MOST LCTNS XCPT NC CSTL WTRS WHERE THEY WILL SHFT TO NW NXT FEW
HRS. WILL HOLD WNDS AT 10-15 KT WITH A SOLID 15 KTS AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY AND OVR CSTL WTRS...PER LTST MODEL GUID. WILL FOLLOW
SAME LOGIC AS LAST NITES TROF PASSAGE AND DEAL WITH ANY OCNL GUST
TO 20 KTS WITH MWS IF NECESSARY.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS
OVER THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN
NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SUN NIGHT THEN GO MORE NORTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING
AS SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE. PROBLEM COULD BE OVER FAR NORTHERN BAY AND
COASTAL ZONES IF THE BNDRY TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH (THEN THESE AREAS WOULD
SEE NNE FLOW SUN/SUN NGT). STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
FOR PTNTL FLAGS SUN NIGHT OR MON...AND AGAIN INTO MIDWEEK AS A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMES THROUGH TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...JYM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/MPR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040149 AAA
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
949 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BY EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO
THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH/TN
VLYS. ALOFT...UPR AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER SERN
QUEBEC...WITH THE AXIS OF MIDLVL TROF PUSHING OFFSHORE. MID
EVENING RAMSDIS WV IMAGERY DEPICTED PLENTY OF LLVL DRY AIR
ROTATING AROUND BOTTOM PERIMETER OF MIDLVL TROF.
AS WITH YESTERDAY...WIDELY SCT SHRAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE GENERALLY ABATED
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO MOVE TWDS
ATLANTIC CANADA OVERNIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. HV REMOVED ALL POPS FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT....WITH CLR/MCLR SKIES.
AS EXPECTED WITH AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR NOTED JUST ALOFT...OBS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS RUNNING A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
VALUES THUS FAR THIS EVENING. HV UNDERCUT T/TD FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN DROPPING EARLY MORNING LOW VALUES BY 2-3
DEG OR SO...MAINLY OVER THE SE COAST. ERY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE L/M 60S INLAND (ALTHOUGH A FEW UPR 50S LKLY IN NORMAL COOL
SPOTS NW OF RIC AND IVOF SBY)...M/U 60S IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT CLEAR AND DRY WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH BY
MIDDAY BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER E VA SHOULD KEEP THINGS
RELATIVELY CLEAR. BY EVNG HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ESP OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE HIGH MVS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE MVS INTO THE TN VALLEY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO OUR NW COUNTIES BY AFTN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5
INCHES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LVL DRY
AIR (AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC) TO HOLD BACK ANY SIG
CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL LATE EVNG. LOOKING FOR DECENT CLOUD CVR
AROUND TIME FOR FIREWORKS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER.
LOW MVS INTO VA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH FROPA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MON MORNING. CHOSE TO LINGER POPS IN THE SE THROUGH MON
MORNING...BUT CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD
ON SUN DUE TO RA/CLOUDS...AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO MID 80S SE.
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID
80S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
WINDS BECOMING MORE ENE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL FAVOR
THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS (WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW ACRS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. OVERALL THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TELECONNECTION PATTERN
SUPPORTS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN...WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH STRONG VORT
MAX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY WED LEADING TO THAT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL FCST MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AKQ CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
TUE/WED/THU...AND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FRI (AS THE HIGH
TRACKS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A RETURN SLY FLOW).
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SBY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR CONDS TO LAST NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH KEEPING LIGHT NW WINDS (INSTEAD OF CALM) THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM DEVELOPING FOG.
RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SAT EVNG. W AND
NW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SE LATE SAT AFTN AT ECG ORF AND PHF IN
RESPONSE TO A SEA BREEZE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W.
AREAS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE TS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES SAT NIGHT
AND SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ACROSS
OUR AREA. METMOS HAS EXTENDED IFR CIGS AT RIC AND SBY. THAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT BUT BRIEF IFR IS QUITE
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF OUR LOCATIONS.
A DRY PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS RETURN FOR MON THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM ANOTHER BRIEF AND MARGINAL NNW SURGE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT/ERLY SAT...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS
OVER THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY
SUN NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA
LVLS)...SW AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SUN NIGHT THEN GO MORE NORTHERLY
BY MONDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE. PROBLEM COULD BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES IF THE BNDRY TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH
(THEN THESE AREAS WOULD SEE NNE FLOW SUN/SUN NGT). STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR PTNTL FLAGS SUN NIGHT OR MON...AND
AGAIN INTO MIDWEEK AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...JYM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 040147 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
947 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS ALL THAT/S LEFT OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THE
EXITING UPPER TROF AXIS...CURRENTLY SLIDING JUST OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD W/ QUIET
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO EARLY/MIDDAY SAT.
OVERNIGHT...THE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AND SO WILL THE
ERN EDGES OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL STRATUS. THE WRN HALF OF CWA
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE BACKEDGE OF THE STEADY STRATUS
SHIELD CONTINUES TO FILTER IN OVER THE CNTRL APLCNS FROM THE OHIO
VLY. LOWS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE L60S EAST...U50S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT POPS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE MID 80S IN WASHINGTON DC.
A BAND OF MID LVL CNVGNC/FORCING ENTERS THE PICTURE FM W TO E SAT
EVE. NAM12 GOING A LTL QUICKER/STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
GIVEN ONGOING WK INSTBY THINK IT/S PRUDENT TO KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
EVNG FCST. SINCE LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA WL IMPV THRU THE NGT...WL ALSO
PROVIDE AN INCRG TREND...SPREADING SOME LKLY POPS BY MIDNGT. ATTM...
HIEST POPS WL BE ACRS SRN HALF OF CWFA /DC-OKV SOUTH/...BUT
ULTIMATELY IT WL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP.
WL BE LOSING CONNECTION TO BNDRY LYR OVNGT...BUT FORCING IMPVS
FURTHER. WL REPRESENT THAT IN WX GRIDS BY SHRA/SCHC TSRA.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST S OF CWFA. ALTHO DONT
THINK THAT SHRA WL BE CONTINUOUS...FVRBL LIFT WL PROVIDE POTENTIAL.
AS WITH SAT NGT...THE SRN HALF OF CWFA WL BE CLOSEST TO THE
FORCING...AND WL CARRY THE HIEST POPS. AS LOW TRACKS OFF DELMARVA
COAST MID-LT AFTN...DRIER AIR WL INFILTRATE FM THE N/NW.
IN ADDITION...INSTBY VIRTUALLY NIL AS COLUMN WL BE TOO SATD AND WNDS
WL BE NLY. WL CARRY WX TYPE AS SHRA. THE LLVL MSTR/SHRA WL ALSO
IMPEDE TEMP RISES. WL KEEP MAXT IN THE 70S...HIEST ACRS THE N WHERE
PCPN WL BE SCARCEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES RDG NOSES EWD IN WAKE OF LOW SUN NGT-MON. WL TRAIL POPS OFF
DURING THE EVE...AND GO DRY SUN OVNGT-MON. AS CAA/NLY FLOW PICKS UP
DURING DAY...CLDS WL SCT OUT AS MEAN LYR RH LOW...MAKING FOR A
SUNNY/DRY DAY ON MON. BOTH MIN-T AND MAXT MON WL BE UNDER CLIMO...AS
DEWPTS PROGGED IN THE 50S.
XTNDD FCST ACRS CONUS WL FEATURE TROFS ALNG THE ATLC AND PAC CSTS
AND BROAD RDGG ACRS THE CNTR OF THE CNTRY. THE RDGG WL BE BLDG EWD
AS LOPRES IN CNDN MARITIMES EJECTS INTO THE NRN ATLC. H5 FLOW FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED... AND AS SUCH...EVOLUTION WL BE ON THE SLOER SIDE.
HOPEFULLY...THAT WL PERMIT A PD OF MORE STBL WX. WL GO W/ A
BASICALLY DRY FCST TUE-FRI. TEMPS WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FM SEASONAL
NORMS...ALTHO MIN-T W OF BLURDG WL BE RATHER COOL BASED ON DEWPTS
WHICH STILL WL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY CUD
BUILD BY WEEKS END...BUT WUD RATHER SEE SVRL CONSECUTIVE RUNS
TRENDING THAT WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. A SIMILAR STORY ON SAT IN TERMS OF SFC
WINDS...W/ A GRADUAL INCREASE OF WESTERLIES INTO THE MID AFTN
HRS...THO LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY...PRBLY MVFR ALTHO BRIEF PDS OF IFR PSBL.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME OVNGT BR SUN NGT AS LLVLS WL BE MOIST FM DEPARTING
RAIN. HWVR...DEWPTS LOW AND AMS MAY REMAIN MIXED.
VFR CONDS XPCTD INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS
FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LACK OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH WATERS SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN.
TSRA SAT NGT LKLY WL BE ELEVATED...THO LTNG WL STILL BE A RISK. WND
DIR WL BE QUICK TRICKY SAT EVE...AS SLY FLOW ACRS VA AND NLY FLOW FM
PTMC HIGHLANDS WL CONVERGE. THERE MAY BE SCA TYPE WNDS ONT HE MID
BAY...BUT WAY TOO UNCERTAINOF THAT TO PLACE IN GRIDS ATTM. OVRALL...
WNDS SHUD ATTAIN A NELY TRAJ BY ELY SUN...AND BACK NW BY SUN AFTN.
PD OF PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW MON. APPEARS AS THO HIER WNDS MIX OUT
PRIOR TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED TUE-WED EITHER.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/HTS
[top]
000
FXUS61 KRNK 040139
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
939 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STILL EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO SLOWLY
ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH ENOUGH CLEARING FOR FOG IN THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE MADE A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND THE MOST RECENT LAV GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IF LLVL MOISTURE IS NOT SCOURED OUT SAT MORNING...THEN HIGH
CLDS RIDING OVER TOP WILL MEAN A CLOUDIER DAY THAN MOS
INDICATES...AND THUS COOLER MAX T. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRIED TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE. MOS HAS BEEN
TOO WARM FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW IN THIS ANOMALOUS
REGIME...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE REMINISCENT OF
JULY...AS TROUGHINESS IN THE MIDDLE ATL IS NUDGED NORTH BY THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE LEAKING EAST. INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A WHOLE
LOOKS DRY...MODEL GUIDANCE WITHOLDING PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL THE
SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE...FORECASTING A
SHORT WAVE TROF TO PASS OVERTOP THE RESIDENT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE. THE RESULTANT SURFACE EVOLUTION IS FOR A WARM FRONT
TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MIGRATES TOWARD OUR FCST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH THE NAM BOLDLY PAINTING
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF SWATH OF QPF ACROSS WV AND VA. ATTM
BELIEVE THE MODELS...ESP THE NAM...ARE OVERDOING THE QPF ACROSS
WV/VA...A BIAS RESULTING FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IN THE
MODELS. A CLOSE LOOK AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THE
CONVECTIVE TRIP SHOULD TAKE PLACE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITHIN
WARM SECTOR. MESOSCALE FACTORS SHOULD DOMINATE WITH STRONGER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG 305K SURFACE TAKING PLACE OVER SOUTHERN
IL/IN ON SATURDAY...THE RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY AND INTO TN SATURDAY
NIGHT...CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST DEEP
CONVECTION TO MISS OUR CWA ALTOGETHER LEAVING US IN A CLOUD DEBRIS
FIELD WITH MORE STRATIFORM ELEMENTS.
THAT SAID...STILL THINK IT WARRANTS HIGH POPS FOR OUR CWA...THE
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING AND PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALLOWING FOR SATURATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
LAYERS...BUT QPF REMAINING BLO A HALF INCH. I THINK THE ONE INCH
QPF THE NAM IS PAINTING IS OVERDONE (ACTUALLY ITS IN THE WRONG
PLACE) AND INSTEAD SHOULD BE PAINTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
FORECAST THETA E...925-850 MB LAYER...AND IT SCREAMS FOR THE MCS
TO TAKE A NOSE DIVE INTO KY/TN...THE 340K+ AIR REMAINING OVER THE
TN VALLEY.
FOR THE SENSIBLE FORECAST HAVE RAISED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. STILL THINK PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF FOR OUR CWA UNTIL
AFTER FIRE WORKS DISPLAYS ARE DONE. IF ANYTHING WILL SEE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BLOW OFF FROM THE EVOLVING MCS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THINKING IS CORRECT...STRONGER DEEP
CONVECTION FROM MCS WILL PASS JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA...ALONG A
SDF-LEX-TYS LINE. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER
OUR CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ABOUT 11 PM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. ONCE WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...60S
AND 70S MOST AREAS. WILL NEED SUN TO CRACK 80...AND NOT THAT
CONFIDENT FOR MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY. INCREASED SUN WILL PROVIDE A
TEMPERATURES BOOST. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP IN TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS MAINLY LIMITED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING TOWARD CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND
FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING OUR
FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A DRY WEEK
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWERS...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS JUST TO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND BLF THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE DISSIPATING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR MVFR FOG AT LYH...BLF AND LWB. DEW POINT DEPRESSION
WILL BE NEAR ZERO DURING THE EARLY MORNING AT LWB SO LEFT THE
TYPICAL LIFR FOG CONDITIONS IN. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH AROUND 12Z FOR
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE AT LWB.
TSTM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT
LEAST SCTD STORMS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM/PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KM
000
FXUS61 KRNK 040006
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
806 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WX PATTERN TYPICALLY RESERVED FOR FALL AND SPRING HAS PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...THANKS TO STRONG JULY SUNSHINE. IN THIS
SCENARIO...USUALLY INVERSION LOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING AND
ERADICATES LLVLS MOISTURE/CLDS. HOWEVER...THIS AFFECT WILL NOT BE AS
DRASTIC IN JULY. THIS POSES SOME FORECASTING CONUNDRUMS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT ONLY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND FOG. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE CU WILL FALL APART WITH LOSS OF HEATING...PLENTIFUL RH REMAINS
FOR A STRATUS LAYER TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH SE WEST VA AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN VA. THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO CLDS LONGER IN
THOSE PARTS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD NEAR 6Z
AND ONWARDS. DID INSERT FOG INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT THAT`S
CONTINGENT UPON CLOUDS BEHAVING. ALSO...TEMPS MAY RUN WARMER
ESPECIALLY AT LWB IF CLDS PERSIST DESPITE TEMPS STRUGGLING TO 70F
ATTM. IF LLVL MOISTURE IS NOT SCOURED OUT SAT MORNING...THEN HIGH
CLDS RIDING OVER TOP WILL MEAN A CLOUDIER DAY THAN MOS
INDICATES...AND THUS COOLER MAX T. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRIED TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE. MOS HAS BEEN
TOO WARM FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW IN THIS ANOMALOUS
REGIME...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE REMINISCENT OF
JULY...AS TROUGHINESS IN THE MIDDLE ATL IS NUDGED NORTH BY THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE LEAKING EAST.
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY...MODEL GUIDANCE WITHOLDING
PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE...FORECASTING A
SHORT WAVE TROF TO PASS OVERTOP THE RESIDENT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE. THE RESULTANT SURFACE EVOLUTION IS FOR A WARM FRONT
TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MIGRATES TOWARD OUR FCST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH THE NAM BOLDLY PAINTING
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF SWATH OF QPF ACROSS WV AND VA. ATTM
BELIEVE THE MODELS...ESP THE NAM...ARE OVERDOING THE QPF ACROSS
WV/VA...A BIAS RESULTING FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IN THE
MODELS. A CLOSE LOOK AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THE
CONVECTIVE TRIP SHOULD TAKE PLACE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITHIN
WARM SECTOR. MESOSCALE FACTORS SHOULD DOMINATE WITH STRONGER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG 305K SURFACE TAKING PLACE OVER SOUTHERN
IL/IN ON SATURDAY...THE RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY AND INTO TN SATURDAY
NIGHT...CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST DEEP
CONVECTION TO MISS OUR CWA ALTOGETHER LEAVING US IN A CLOUD DEBRIS
FIELD WITH MORE STRATIFORM ELEMENTS.
THAT SAID...STILL THINK IT WARRANTS HIGH POPS FOR OUR CWA...THE
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING AND PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALLOWING FOR SATURATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
LAYERS...BUT QPF REMAINING BLO A HALF INCH. I THINK THE ONE INCH
QPF THE NAM IS PAINTING IS OVERDONE (ACTUALLY ITS IN THE WRONG
PLACE) AND INSTEAD SHOULD BE PAINTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
FORECAST THETA E...925-850 MB LAYER...AND IT SCREAMS FOR THE MCS
TO TAKE A NOSE DIVE INTO KY/TN...THE 340K+ AIR REMAINING OVER THE
TN VALLEY.
FOR THE SENSIBLE FORECAST HAVE RAISED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. STILL THINK PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF FOR OUR CWA UNTIL
AFTER FIRE WORKS DISPLAYS ARE DONE. IF ANYTHING WILL SEE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BLOW OFF FROM THE EVOLVING MCS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THINKING IS CORRECT...STRONGER DEEP
CONVECTION FROM MCS WILL PASS JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA...ALONG A
SDF-LEX-TYS LINE. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER
OUR CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ABOUT 11 PM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. ONCE WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...60S
AND 70S MOST AREAS. WILL NEED SUN TO CRACK 80...AND NOT THAT
CONFIDENT FOR MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY. INCREASED SUN WILL PROVIDE A
TEMPERATURES BOOST. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP IN TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS MAINLY LIMITED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING TOWARD CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND
FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING OUR
FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A DRY WEEK
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWERS...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS JUST TO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN AND AROUND BLF THIS EVENING BUT OVERALL
STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE DISSIPATING SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR MVFR FOG AT LYH...BLF AND LWB. DEW POINT DEPRESSION
WILL BE NEAR ZERO DURING THE EARLY MORNING AT LWB SO LEFT THE
TYPICAL LIFR FOG CONDITIONS IN. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH AROUND 12Z FOR
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE AT LWB.
TSTM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT
LEAST SCTD STORMS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KM
000
FXUS61 KLWX 032357 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
757 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
SCA CANCELLED.
PREV DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD OVERHEAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE OVERNIGHT WILL TURN OUT DRY
AND SEASONABLY MILD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT POPS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE MID 80S IN WASHINGTON DC.
A BAND OF MID LVL CNVGNC/FORCING ENTERS THE PICTURE FM W TO E SAT
EVE. NAM12 GOING A LTL QUICKER/STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
GIVEN ONGOING WK INSTBY THINK IT/S PRUDENT TO KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
EVNG FCST. SINCE LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA WL IMPV THRU THE NGT...WL ALSO
PROVIDE AN INCRG TREND...SPREADING SOME LKLY POPS BY MIDNGT. ATTM...
HIEST POPS WL BE ACRS SRN HALF OF CWFA /DC-OKV SOUTH/...BUT
ULTIMATELY IT WL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP.
WL BE LOSING CONNECTION TO BNDRY LYR OVNGT...BUT FORCING IMPVS
FURTHER. WL REPRESENT THAT IN WX GRIDS BY SHRA/SCHC TSRA.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST S OF CWFA. ALTHO DONT
THINK THAT SHRA WL BE CONTINUOUS...FVRBL LIFT WL PROVIDE POTENTIAL.
AS WITH SAT NGT...THE SRN HALF OF CWFA WL BE CLOSEST TO THE
FORCING...AND WL CARRY THE HIEST POPS. AS LOW TRACKS OFF DELMARVA
COAST MID-LT AFTN...DRIER AIR WL INFILTRATE FM THE N/NW.
IN ADDITION...INSTBY VIRTUALLY NIL AS COLUMN WL BE TOO SATD AND WNDS
WL BE NLY. WL CARRY WX TYPE AS SHRA. THE LLVL MSTR/SHRA WL ALSO
IMPEDE TEMP RISES. WL KEEP MAXT IN THE 70S...HIEST ACRS THE N WHERE
PCPN WL BE SCARCEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES RDG NOSES EWD IN WAKE OF LOW SUN NGT-MON. WL TRAIL POPS OFF
DURING THE EVE...AND GO DRY SUN OVNGT-MON. AS CAA/NLY FLOW PICKS UP
DURING DAY...CLDS WL SCT OUT AS MEAN LYR RH LOW...MAKING FOR A
SUNNY/DRY DAY ON MON. BOTH MIN-T AND MAXT MON WL BE UNDER CLIMO...AS
DEWPTS PROGGED IN THE 50S.
XTNDD FCST ACRS CONUS WL FEATURE TROFS ALNG THE ATLC AND PAC CSTS
AND BROAD RDGG ACRS THE CNTR OF THE CNTRY. THE RDGG WL BE BLDG EWD
AS LOPRES IN CNDN MARITIMES EJECTS INTO THE NRN ATLC. H5 FLOW FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED... AND AS SUCH...EVOLUTION WL BE ON THE SLOER SIDE.
HOPEFULLY...THAT WL PERMIT A PD OF MORE STBL WX. WL GO W/ A
BASICALLY DRY FCST TUE-FRI. TEMPS WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FM SEASONAL
NORMS...ALTHO MIN-T W OF BLURDG WL BE RATHER COOL BASED ON DEWPTS
WHICH STILL WL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY CUD
BUILD BY WEEKS END...BUT WUD RATHER SEE SVRL CONSECUTIVE RUNS
TRENDING THAT WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY THE
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY...PRBLY MVFR ALTHO BRIEF PDS OF IFR PSBL.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME OVNGT BR SUN NGT AS LLVLS WL BE MOIST FM DEPARTING
RAIN. HWVR...DEWPTS LOW AND AMS MAY REMAIN MIXED.
VFR CONDS XPCTD INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA CANCELLED. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING SE
ACROSS THE NRN BAY...POSSIBLY CARRYING A BRIEF 15-20KT GUST TO THE
SFC. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS
FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LACK OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH WATERS SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN.
TSRA SAT NGT LKLY WL BE ELEVATED...THO LTNG WL STILL BE A RISK. WND
DIR WL BE QUICK TRICKY SAT EVE...AS SLY FLOW ACRS VA AND NLY FLOW FM
PTMC HIGHLANDS WL CONVERGE. THERE MAY BE SCA TYPE WNDS ONT HE MID
BAY...BUT WAY TOO UNCERTAINOF THAT TO PLACE IN GRIDS ATTM. OVRALL...
WNDS SHUD ATTAIN A NELY TRAJ BY ELY SUN...AND BACK NW BY SUN AFTN.
PD OF PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW MON. APPEARS AS THO HIER WNDS MIX OUT
PRIOR TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED TUE-WED EITHER.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/HTS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032356
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
756 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE NAM AND THE
GFS BOTH DEPICT A WEAK S/W MVG TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATER THIS
EVNG (ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE
TWO)...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE/TIDEWATER/NE NC THROUGH MIDNIGHT SHOULD THIS FEATURE BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY ISOLD SHRA. OTHERWISE...LOOKIING FOR PCLDY
SKIES LATER TONIGHT FOR ANY EARLY FIREWORKS SHOWS AND GNRLY QUIET
CONDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT CLEAR AND DRY WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH BY
MIDDAY BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER E VA SHOULD KEEP THINGS
RELATIVELY CLEAR. BY EVNG HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ESP OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE HIGH MVS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE MVS INTO THE TN VALLEY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO OUR NW COUNTIES BY AFTN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5
INCHES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LVL DRY
AIR (AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC) TO HOLD BACK ANY SIG
CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL LATE EVNG. LOOKING FOR DECENT CLOUD CVR
AROUND TIME FOR FIREWORKS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER.
LOW MVS INTO VA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH FROPA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MON MORNING. CHOSE TO LINGER POPS IN THE SE THROUGH MON
MORNING...BUT CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD
ON SUN DUE TO RA/CLOUDS...AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO MID 80S SE.
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID
80S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
WINDS BECOMING MORE ENE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL FAVOR
THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS (WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW ACRS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. OVERALL THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TELECONNECTION PATTERN
SUPPORTS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN...WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH STRONG VORT
MAX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY WED LEADING TO THAT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL FCST MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AKQ CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
TUE/WED/THU...AND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FRI (AS THE HIGH
TRACKS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A RETURN SLY FLOW).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SBY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR CONDS TO LAST NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH KEEPING LIGHT NW WINDS (INSTEAD OF CALM) THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THEM FROM DEVELOPING FOG.
RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SAT EVNG. W AND
NW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SE LATE SAT AFTN AT ECG ORF AND PHF IN
RESPONSE TO A SEA BREEZE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE W.
AREAS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE TS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES SAT NIGHT
AND SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ACROSS
OUR AREA. METMOS HAS EXTENDED IFR CIGS AT RIC AND SBY. THAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT BUT BRIEF IFR IS QUITE
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF OUR LOCATIONS.
A DRY PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS RETURN FOR MON THROUGH WED.
&&
.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM ANOTHER BRIEF AND MARGINAL NNW SURGE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT/ERLY SAT...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS
OVER THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY
SUN NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA
LVLS)...SW AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SUN NIGHT THEN GO MORE NORTHERLY
BY MONDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE. PROBLEM COULD BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES IF THE BNDRY TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH
(THEN THESE AREAS WOULD SEE NNE FLOW SUN/SUN NGT). STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR PTNTL FLAGS SUN NIGHT OR MON...AND
AGAIN INTO MIDWEEK AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM
NEAR TERM...JYM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
000
FXUS61 KLWX 032159 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
559 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...
EXTENDED SCA TILL 8 PM FOR ALL BUT THE NRNMOST ZONE FOR THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND BAY.
PREV DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD OVERHEAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE OVERNIGHT WILL TURN OUT DRY
AND SEASONABLY MILD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT POPS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE MID 80S IN WASHINGTON DC.
A BAND OF MID LVL CNVGNC/FORCING ENTERS THE PICTURE FM W TO E SAT
EVE. NAM12 GOING A LTL QUICKER/STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
GIVEN ONGOING WK INSTBY THINK IT/S PRUDENT TO KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
EVNG FCST. SINCE LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA WL IMPV THRU THE NGT...WL ALSO
PROVIDE AN INCRG TREND...SPREADING SOME LKLY POPS BY MIDNGT. ATTM...
HIEST POPS WL BE ACRS SRN HALF OF CWFA /DC-OKV SOUTH/...BUT
ULTIMATELY IT WL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP.
WL BE LOSING CONNECTION TO BNDRY LYR OVNGT...BUT FORCING IMPVS
FURTHER. WL REPRESENT THAT IN WX GRIDS BY SHRA/SCHC TSRA.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST S OF CWFA. ALTHO DONT
THINK THAT SHRA WL BE CONTINUOUS...FVRBL LIFT WL PROVIDE POTENTIAL.
AS WITH SAT NGT...THE SRN HALF OF CWFA WL BE CLOSEST TO THE
FORCING...AND WL CARRY THE HIEST POPS. AS LOW TRACKS OFF DELMARVA
COAST MID-LT AFTN...DRIER AIR WL INFILTRATE FM THE N/NW.
IN ADDITION...INSTBY VIRTUALLY NIL AS COLUMN WL BE TOO SATD AND WNDS
WL BE NLY. WL CARRY WX TYPE AS SHRA. THE LLVL MSTR/SHRA WL ALSO
IMPEDE TEMP RISES. WL KEEP MAXT IN THE 70S...HIEST ACRS THE N WHERE
PCPN WL BE SCARCEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES RDG NOSES EWD IN WAKE OF LOW SUN NGT-MON. WL TRAIL POPS OFF
DURING THE EVE...AND GO DRY SUN OVNGT-MON. AS CAA/NLY FLOW PICKS UP
DURING DAY...CLDS WL SCT OUT AS MEAN LYR RH LOW...MAKING FOR A
SUNNY/DRY DAY ON MON. BOTH MIN-T AND MAXT MON WL BE UNDER CLIMO...AS
DEWPTS PROGGED IN THE 50S.
XTNDD FCST ACRS CONUS WL FEATURE TROFS ALNG THE ATLC AND PAC CSTS
AND BROAD RDGG ACRS THE CNTR OF THE CNTRY. THE RDGG WL BE BLDG EWD
AS LOPRES IN CNDN MARITIMES EJECTS INTO THE NRN ATLC. H5 FLOW FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED... AND AS SUCH...EVOLUTION WL BE ON THE SLOER SIDE.
HOPEFULLY...THAT WL PERMIT A PD OF MORE STBL WX. WL GO W/ A
BASICALLY DRY FCST TUE-FRI. TEMPS WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FM SEASONAL
NORMS...ALTHO MIN-T W OF BLURDG WL BE RATHER COOL BASED ON DEWPTS
WHICH STILL WL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY CUD
BUILD BY WEEKS END...BUT WUD RATHER SEE SVRL CONSECUTIVE RUNS
TRENDING THAT WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY THE
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY...PRBLY MVFR ALTHO BRIEF PDS OF IFR PSBL.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME OVNGT BR SUN NGT AS LLVLS WL BE MOIST FM DEPARTING
RAIN. HWVR...DEWPTS LOW AND AMS MAY REMAIN MIXED.
VFR CONDS XPCTD INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN
SCA INTO LATE EVNG FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS
FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LACK OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH WATERS SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN.
TSRA SAT NGT LKLY WL BE ELEVATED...THO LTNG WL STILL BE A RISK. WND
DIR WL BE QUICK TRICKY SAT EVE...AS SLY FLOW ACRS VA AND NLY FLOW FM
PTMC HIGHLANDS WL CONVERGE. THERE MAY BE SCA TYPE WNDS ONT HE MID
BAY...BUT WAY TOO UNCERTAINOF THAT TO PLACE IN GRIDS ATTM. OVRALL...
WNDS SHUD ATTAIN A NELY TRAJ BY ELY SUN...AND BACK NW BY SUN AFTN.
PD OF PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW MON. APPEARS AS THO HIER WNDS MIX OUT
PRIOR TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED TUE-WED EITHER.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ531>534-536-537.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/HTS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032018
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
418 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE NAM AND THE
GFS BOTH DEPICT A WEAK S/W MVG TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATER THIS
EVNG (ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE
TWO)...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE/TIDEWATER/NE NC THROUGH MIDNIGHT SHOULD THIS FEATURE BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY ISOLD SHRA. OTHERWISE...LOOKIING FOR PCLDY
SKIES LATER TONIGHT FOR ANY EARLY FIREWORKS SHOWS AND GNRLY QUIET
CONDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT CLEAR AND DRY WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH BY
MIDDAY BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER E VA SHOULD KEEP THINGS
RELATIVELY CLEAR. BY EVNG HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ESP OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE HIGH MVS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE MVS INTO THE TN VALLEY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO OUR NW COUNTIES BY AFTN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5
INCHES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LVL DRY
AIR (AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC) TO HOLD BACK ANY SIG
CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL LATE EVNG. LOOKING FOR DECENT CLOUD CVR
AROUND TIME FOR FIREWORKS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER.
LOW MVS INTO VA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH FROPA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MON MORNING. CHOSE TO LINGER POPS IN THE SE THROUGH MON
MORNING...BUT CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD
ON SUN DUE TO RA/CLOUDS...AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO MID 80S SE.
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID
80S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
WINDS BECOMING MORE ENE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL FAVOR
THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS (WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW ACRS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. OVERALL THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TELECONNECTION PATTERN
SUPPORTS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN...WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH STRONG VORT
MAX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY WED LEADING TO THAT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL FCST MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AKQ CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
TUE/WED/THU...AND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FRI (AS THE HIGH
TRACKS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A RETURN SLY FLOW).
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
SCT-BKN CU/SC THIS AFTN 4-5 K. SLGT CHC OF SWRS THIS AFTN MAINLY
VCNTY SBY. OVERNITE SKY CLEARS BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE DO NOT
LOOK FOR BR..XCPT SBY WHERE MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT CHC FOR MVFR
CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM ANOTHER BRIEF AND MARGINAL NNW SURGE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT/ERLY SAT...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS
OVER THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY
SUN NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA
LVLS)...SW AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SUN NIGHT THEN GO MORE NORTHERLY
BY MONDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE. PROBLEM COULD BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES IF THE BNDRY TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH
(THEN THESE AREAS WOULD SEE NNE FLOW SUN/SUN NGT). STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR PTNTL FLAGS SUN NIGHT OR MON...AND
AGAIN INTO MIDWEEK AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM
NEAR TERM...JYM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...LKB
000
FXUS61 KRNK 031949
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WX PATTERN TYPICALLY RESERVED FOR FALL AND SPRING HAS PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD...THANKS TO STRONG JULY SUNSHINE. IN THIS
SCENARIO...USUALLY INVERSION LOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING AND
ERADICATES LLVLS MOISTURE/CLDS. HOWEVER...THIS AFFECT WILL NOT BE AS
DRASTIC IN JULY. THIS POSES SOME FORECASTING CONUNDRUMS FOR
TONIGHT...BUT ONLY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND FOG. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE CU WILL FALL APART WITH LOSS OF HEATING...PLENTIFUL RH REMAINS
FOR A STRATUS LAYER TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH SE WEST VA AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN VA. THUS...HAVE HELD ONTO CLDS LONGER IN
THOSE PARTS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD NEAR 6Z
AND ONWARDS. DID INSERT FOG INTO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY...BUT THAT`S
CONTINGENT UPON CLOUDS BEHAVING. ALSO...TEMPS MAY RUN WARMER
ESPECIALLY AT LWB IF CLDS PERSIST DESPITE TEMPS STRUGGLING TO 70F
ATTM. IF LLVL MOISTURE IS NOT SCOURED OUT SAT MORNING...THEN HIGH
CLDS RIDING OVER TOP WILL MEAN A CLOUDIER DAY THAN MOS
INDICATES...AND THUS COOLER MAX T. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRIED TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE. MOS HAS BEEN
TOO WARM FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW IN THIS ANOMALOUS
REGIME...ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE REMINISCENT OF
JULY...AS TROUGHINESS IN THE MIDDLE ATL IS NUDGED NORTH BY THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE LEAKING EAST.
INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY...MODEL GUIDANCE WITHOLDING
PRECIP POTENTENTIAL UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE WITH 00Z GUIDANCE...FORECASTING A
SHORT WAVE TROF TO PASS OVERTOP THE RESIDENT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE. THE RESULTANT SURFACE EVOLUTION IS FOR A WARM FRONT
TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MIGRATES TOWARD OUR FCST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING AND FARTHER NORTH...WITH THE NAM BOLDLY PAINTING
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF SWATH OF QPF ACROSS WV AND VA. ATTM
BELEIVE THE MODELS...ESP THE NAM...ARE OVERDOING THE QPF ACROSS
WV/VA...A BIAS RESULTING FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IN THE
MODELS. A CLOSE LOOK AT THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THE
CONVECTIVE TRIP SHOULD TAKE PLACE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITHIN
WARM SECTOR. MESOSCALE FACTORS SHOULD DOMINATE WITH STRONGER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG 305K SURFACE TAKING PLACE OVER SOUTHERN
IL/IN ON SATURDAY...THE RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH KY AND INTO TN SATURDAY
NIGHT...CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST DEEP
CONVECTION TO MISS OUR CWA ALTOGETHER LEAVING US IN A CLOUD DEBRIS
FIELD WITH MORE STRATIFORM ELEMENTS.
THAT SAID...STILL THINK IT WARRANTS HIGH POPS FOR OUR CWA...THE
STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING AND PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALLOWING FOR SATURATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
LAYERS...BUT QPF REMAINING BLO A HALF INCH. I THINK THE ONE INCH
QPF THE NAM IS PAINTING IS OVERDONE (ACTUALLY ITS IN THE WRONG
PLACE) AND INSTEAD SHOULD BE PAINTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
FORECAST THETA E...925-850 MB LAYER...AND IT SCREAMS FOR THE MCS
TO TAKE A NOSE DIVE INTO KY/TN...THE 340K+ AIR REMAINING OVER THE
TN VALLEY.
FOR THE SENSIBLE FORECAST HAVE RAISED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. STILL THINK PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF FOR OUR CWA UNTIL
AFTER FIRE WORKS DISPLAYS ARE DONE. IF ANYTHING WILL SEE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BLOW OFF FROM THE EVOLVING MCS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THINKING IS CORRECT...STRONGER DEEP
CONVECTION FROM MCS WILL PASS JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA...ALONG A
SDF-LEX-TYS LINE. DEBIS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL STILL PASS OVER
OUR CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ABOUT 11 PM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. ONCE WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON SUNDAY WINDS SHOULD SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS.
TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...60S
AND 70S MOST AREAS. WILL NEED SUN TO CRACK 80...AND NOT THAT
CONFIDENT FOR MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY. INCREASED SUN WILL PROVIDE A
TEMPERATURES BOOST. LINGERING MOISTURE MAY BUBBLE UP IN TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS MAINLY LIMITED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING TOWARD CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND
FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING OUR
FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A DRY WEEK
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWERS...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS JUST TO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT LAST A FEW HRS INTO
TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF SE WEST VA. OVC TO BKN CLDS ALL DAY AND
PART OF TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...MAKING
LIFR/VLIFR FOG ALL THE MORE LIKELY AT LWB AND POSSIBLY EVEN
BLF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CELL DIRECTLY OVER THE LATTER. ALTHOUGH
KBLF IS A DIFFICULT PLACE TO FOG IN...DID INCLUDE SOME TEMP IFR
VIS FOR NOW. MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLDS OFF OF
CONVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST. FARTHER EAST...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ARRIVE TOO LATE...LAV GUIDANCE IS LETTING WINDS DIE FOR A FEW
HRS BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG THERE LATE.
HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TSTM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT
LEAST SCTD STORMS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ/KM
000
FXUS61 KLWX 031909
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
309 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BUILD OVERHEAD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE OVERNIGHT WILL TURN OUT DRY
AND SEASONABLY MILD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT POPS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE MID 80S IN WASHINGTON DC.
A BAND OF MID LVL CNVGNC/FORCING ENTERS THE PICTURE FM W TO E SAT
EVE. NAM12 GOING A LTL QUICKER/STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
GIVEN ONGOING WK INSTBY THINK IT/S PRUDENT TO KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
EVNG FCST. SINCE LIKELIHOOD OF TSRA WL IMPV THRU THE NGT...WL ALSO
PROVIDE AN INCRG TREND...SPREADING SOME LKLY POPS BY MIDNGT. ATTM...
HIEST POPS WL BE ACRS SRN HALF OF CWFA /DC-OKV SOUTH/...BUT
ULTIMATELY IT WL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THAT BAND SETS UP.
WL BE LOSING CONNECTION TO BNDRY LYR OVNGT...BUT FORCING IMPVS
FURTHER. WL REPRESENT THAT IN WX GRIDS BY SHRA/SCHC TSRA.
SUN APPEARS TO BE A WET DAY AS LOW TRACKS JUST S OF CWFA. ALTHO DONT
THINK THAT SHRA WL BE CONTINUOUS...FVRBL LIFT WL PROVIDE POTENTIAL.
AS WITH SAT NGT...THE SRN HALF OF CWFA WL BE CLOSEST TO THE
FORCING...AND WL CARRY THE HIEST POPS. AS LOW TRACKS OFF DELMARVA
COAST MID-LT AFTN...DRIER AIR WL INFILTRATE FM THE N/NW.
IN ADDITION...INSTBY VIRTUALLY NIL AS COLUMN WL BE TOO SATD AND WNDS
WL BE NLY. WL CARRY WX TYPE AS SHRA. THE LLVL MSTR/SHRA WL ALSO
IMPEDE TEMP RISES. WL KEEP MAXT IN THE 70S...HIEST ACRS THE N WHERE
PCPN WL BE SCARCEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES RDG NOSES EWD IN WAKE OF LOW SUN NGT-MON. WL TRAIL POPS OFF
DURING THE EVE...AND GO DRY SUN OVNGT-MON. AS CAA/NLY FLOW PICKS UP
DURING DAY...CLDS WL SCT OUT AS MEAN LYR RH LOW...MAKING FOR A
SUNNY/DRY DAY ON MON. BOTH MIN-T AND MAXT MON WL BE UNDER CLIMO...AS
DEWPTS PROGGED IN THE 50S.
XTNDD FCST ACRS CONUS WL FEATURE TROFS ALNG THE ATLC AND PAC CSTS
AND BROAD RDGG ACRS THE CNTR OF THE CNTRY. THE RDGG WL BE BLDG EWD
AS LOPRES IN CNDN MARITIMES EJECTS INTO THE NRN ATLC. H5 FLOW FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED... AND AS SUCH...EVOLUTION WL BE ON THE SLOER SIDE.
HOPEFULLY...THAT WL PERMIT A PD OF MORE STBL WX. WL GO W/ A
BASICALLY DRY FCST TUE-FRI. TEMPS WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FM SEASONAL
NORMS...ALTHO MIN-T W OF BLURDG WL BE RATHER COOL BASED ON DEWPTS
WHICH STILL WL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY CUD
BUILD BY WEEKS END...BUT WUD RATHER SEE SVRL CONSECUTIVE RUNS
TRENDING THAT WAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY THE
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY WILL GUST UP TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN. FLGT
RESTRICTIONS LKLY...PRBLY MVFR ALTHO BRIEF PDS OF IFR PSBL.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME OVNGT BR SUN NGT AS LLVLS WL BE MOIST FM DEPARTING
RAIN. HWVR...DEWPTS LOW AND AMS MAY REMAIN MIXED.
VFR CONDS XPCTD INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN
SCA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE SATURDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS
FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A LACK OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WL APPROACH WATERS SAT NGT...AND SHRA WL CONT SUN.
TSRA SAT NGT LKLY WL BE ELEVATED...THO LTNG WL STILL BE A RISK. WND
DIR WL BE QUICK TRICKY SAT EVE...AS SLY FLOW ACRS VA AND NLY FLOW FM
PTMC HIGHLANDS WL CONVERGE. THERE MAY BE SCA TYPE WNDS ONT HE MID
BAY...BUT WAY TOO UNCERTAINOF THAT TO PLACE IN GRIDS ATTM. OVRALL...
WNDS SHUD ATTAIN A NELY TRAJ BY ELY SUN...AND BACK NW BY SUN AFTN.
PD OF PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW MON. APPEARS AS THO HIER WNDS MIX OUT
PRIOR TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED TUE-WED EITHER.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/HTS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031845
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE NAM AND THE
GFS BOTH DEPICT A WEAK S/W MVG TOWARDS THE DELMARVA LATER THIS
EVNG (ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE
TWO)...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE/TIDEWATER/NE NC THROUGH MIDNIGHT SHOULD THIS FEATURE BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY ISOLD SHRA. OTHERWISE...LOOKIING FOR PCLDY
SKIES LATER TONIGHT FOR ANY EARLY FIREWORKS SHOWS AND GNRLY QUIET
CONDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY STARTS OUT CLEAR AND DRY WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH BY
MIDDAY BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER E VA SHOULD KEEP THINGS
RELATIVELY CLEAR. BY EVNG HOWEVER WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ESP OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE HIGH MVS OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE MVS INTO THE TN VALLEY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO OUR NW COUNTIES BY AFTN AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5
INCHES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LVL DRY
AIR (AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC) TO HOLD BACK ANY SIG
CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL LATE EVNG. LOOKING FOR DECENT CLOUD CVR
AROUND TIME FOR FIREWORKS SAT NIGHT HOWEVER.
LOW MVS INTO VA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AND RAIN CHANCES
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY AS PWATS APPROACH 2
INCHES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/TRACK OF THIS LOW. ECMWF IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH FROPA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MON MORNING. CHOSE TO LINGER POPS IN THE SE THROUGH MON
MORNING...BUT CLEAR OUT THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLN. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD
ON SUN DUE TO RA/CLOUDS...AROUND 80 DEGREES NORTH TO MID 80S SE.
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MID
80S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
WINDS BECOMING MORE ENE BY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
SCT-BKN CU/SC THIS AFTN 4-5 K. SLGT CHC OF SWRS THIS AFTN MAINLY
VCNTY SBY. OVERNITE SKY CLEARS BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE DO NOT
LOOK FOR BR..XCPT SBY WHERE MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT CHC FOR MVFR
CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NW SURGE DID OCCUR DRNG PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT SPEEDS GNRLY STAYED
BLO 20 KTS. MWS WAS ISSUED FOR THE GUSTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU SAT NITE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR
THE AREA WITH LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE.
XPCT WNDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD
OF FTR SUN NITE THEN GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS
OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS
SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM
NEAR TERM...JYM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...LKB
000
FXUS61 KRNK 031739
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
139 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAA AT ALL LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING IN SHOULD ALLOW
A GRADUAL EROSION OF CLDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL ALLOW CLDS TO REPLENISH ALONG SE WEST VA.
KEKN REPORTED A FEW SPRINKLES PAST HR SO JUST INCLUDED THAT ALONG
THE HIGHEST TERRITORY OF GREENBRIER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AN
ABNORMAL JULY PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST.
PREV DISC...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD...WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
MOVG THRU PA. THIS LAST WAVE IS PUSHING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEWD INTO WESTERN SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED THE THE SHORT
WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE FAR WEST. STILL...WILL BE MORE SUN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL APPLNS
TONIGHT...I EXPECT AT LEAST THE MTN VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. SO...I HAVE LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COLDER MTN
VALLEYS MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 40S...BUT JUST HAVE LOWER 50S FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF A
LOWER OHIO VALLEY MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD MORE OF A VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ARRIVAL WITH A PATH A BIT FARTHER NORTH. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS AND AM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
UPSTREAM WFOS. MOVEMENT WILL BRING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. BEST POPS WILL BE IN THE WEST. GIVEN THE
PROJECTED TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN FLUX...HAVE
KEPT POPS UNDER THE LIKELY CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
ON SUNDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA...WE WILL START
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IT WILL BE THIS FRONT THAT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER WITH WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG IT...AND THUS BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING INTO CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHC POPS MONDAY SINCE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...FRONT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A
DRY WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT LAST A FEW HRS INTO
TONIGHT THROUGH PARTS OF SE WEST VA. OVC TO BKN CLDS ALL DAY AND
PART OF TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...MAKING
LIFR/VLIFR FOG ALL THE MORE LIKELY AT LWB AND POSSIBLY EVEN
BLF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CELL DIRECTLY OVER THE LATTER. ALTHOUGH
KBLF IS A DIFFICULT PLACE TO FOG IN...DID INCLUDE SOME TEMP IFR
VIS FOR NOW. MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLDS OFF OF
CONVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST. FARTHER EAST...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ARRIVE TOO LATE...LAV GUIDANCE IS LETTING WINDS DIE FOR A FEW
HRS BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR/IFR FOG THERE LATE.
HIGH CLDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
TSTM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT
LEAST SCTD STORMS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ/KM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ/KM
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031720
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
120 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ISOL SHRAS CONTINUE TO PUSH E/NE ERLY THIS AM OVER PORTIONS OF SE
THIRD OF THE CWA. CAN NOT OUTRULE A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESP
OVER THE SRN MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE LOCALLY MOD RAIN FOR A SHORT
DURATION WITH SHRA ACTIVITY. ISOL CHCS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OVER NC ZONES THIS AM. MID LVL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER
THE RGN TDY WITH SOME SCT/BKN CU DVLPG IN THE AFTN. LIMITED CHCS
OF PRECIP LATER TDY BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT LATE DAY POPS
OVER THE FAR NE. THINK MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE RGN WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S N TO THE UPR 80S TO
NEAR 90 S (LOW MID 80S ALONG COASTLINE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /1 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TNT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT MID LVLS TO START OUT THE DAY ON SAT LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S FAR S. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE OVER THE
W/NW AS AN UPR LVL JET SAGS SWRD INTO THE RGN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSCD SHRTWV WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWST/OH VLY SAT NIGHT BRINGING THE CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS TMRW EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRAS DVLP LATE EVE.
ON SUN MDLS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CWA...BUT BEST CHCS OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA (ESP SW). IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES LONGER TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGHS ON
SUN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER THAN FCSTG IF MORE PRECIP DVLPS (ESP NRN
HALF).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
...SCT-BKN CU/SC THIS AFTN 4-5 K. SLGT CHC OF SWRS THIS AFTN
MAINLY VCNTY SBY. OVERNITE SKY CLEARS BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE DO
NOT LOOK FOR BR..XCPT SBY WHERE MVFR VIS POSSIBLE.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT CHC FOR MVFR
CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NW SURGE DID OCCUR DRNG PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT SPEEDS GNRLY STAYED
BLO 20 KTS. MWS WAS ISSUED FOR THE GUSTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU SAT NITE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR
THE AREA WITH LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE.
XPCT WNDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD
OF FTR SUN NITE THEN GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS
OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS
SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM
NEAR TERM...JYM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...LKB
000
FXUS61 KRNK 031412
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1012 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAA AT ALL LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING IN SHOULD ALLOW
A GRADUAL EROSION OF CLDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH
UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL ALLOW CLDS TO REPLENISH ALONG SE WEST VA.
KEKN REPORTED A FEW SPRINKLES PAST HR SO JUST INCLUDED THAT ALONG
THE HIGHEST TERRITORY OF GREENBRIER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AN
ABNORMAL JULY PATTERN TO SAY THE LEAST.
PREV DISC...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD...WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
MOVG THRU PA. THIS LAST WAVE IS PUSHING AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEWD INTO WESTERN SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED THE THE SHORT
WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN
SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...I HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE FAR WEST. STILL...WILL BE MORE SUN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL APPLNS
TONIGHT...I EXPECT AT LEAST THE MTN VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. SO...I HAVE LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COLDER MTN
VALLEYS MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 40S...BUT JUST HAVE LOWER 50S FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF A
LOWER OHIO VALLEY MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD MORE OF A VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ARRIVAL WITH A PATH A BIT FARTHER NORTH. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS AND AM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
UPSTREAM WFOS. MOVEMENT WILL BRING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. BEST POPS WILL BE IN THE WEST. GIVEN THE
PROJECTED TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN FLUX...HAVE
KEPT POPS UNDER THE LIKELY CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
ON SUNDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA...WE WILL START
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IT WILL BE THIS FRONT THAT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER WITH WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG IT...AND THUS BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING INTO CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHC POPS MONDAY SINCE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...FRONT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A
DRY WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT MVFR TO OCNL
IFR CIGS TO BLF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR BY 18Z AT BLF. LWB MAY SEE SOME PERIODS WITH MVFR CIGS
THRU ABOUT 15Z. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. ONCE
AGAIN...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL
START THE NIGHT IFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LWB WILL LIKELY SEE LIFR FOG TOWARD MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR RIVER FOG. BLF WILL ALSO
HAVE EXCELLENT RADIATION CONDS...SO MVFR FOG IS LIKELY THERE. THE
TAF SITES FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT SO NO FOG WAS INCLUDED.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES ONCE THE
FOG LIFTS...INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TSTM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ/KM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ
000
FXUS61 KLWX 031351
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR
SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH
FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
A NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 60S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE LOWER 80S IN
WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY DESPITE DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CU
BUILDUP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
ANYTHING THAT FORMS SHD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT SUNSET. MIN TEMPS
50S...TO L60S URBAN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SUITE OF 0Z RUNS OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE DAY DRY.
HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAD BE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS...NOW LOOKS TO TRAVEL NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROF OF THIS WEEK
APPEARS TO BE LIFTING A LITTLE FASTER NEWARD OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE DISTURBANCE CLOSER AND LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...HAVE
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE LATE SAT THRU MONDAY. GFS/GEFS/ECMWF KEEP
THE AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT 0Z NAM
PROJECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.
SEASONAL TEMPS IN 80S SUNDAY...BUT CWA IS ON COOL SIDE OF SUNDAY
STORM SYSTEM...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME AREAS WILL STAY
IN THE 70S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS AND TSTMS RIDING ALONG
IT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH PULLING
THE FRONT EASTWARD AND DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO ENCROACH FROM THE SW.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT.
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING OUT AT
10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOONS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY...MAKING BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT AREA AIRPORTS BE AT KCHO.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE GUSTING CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL CAP WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SETS UP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT LOOK TO RMN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RDH/BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RDH/SBK/BJL
MARINE...RDH/SBK/BJL
000
FXUS61 KRNK 031135
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
735 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD...WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
MOVG THRU PA. THIS LAST WAVE IS PUSHING AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEWD INTO WESTERN SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED THE THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...I
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE FAR WEST. STILL...WILL BE MORE
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL APPLNS
TONIGHT...I EXPECT AT LEAST THE MTN VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. SO...I HAVE LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COLDER MTN
VALLEYS MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 40S...BUT JUST HAVE LOWER 50S FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF A
LOWER OHIO VALLEY MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD MORE OF A VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ARRIVAL WITH A PATH A BIT FARTHER NORTH. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS AND AM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
UPSTREAM WFOS. MOVEMENT WILL BRING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. BEST POPS WILL BE IN THE WEST. GIVEN THE
PROJECTED TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN FLUX...HAVE
KEPT POPS UNDER THE LIKELY CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
ON SUNDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA...WE WILL START
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IT WILL BE THIS FRONT THAT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER WITH WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG IT...AND THUS BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING INTO CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHC POPS MONDAY SINCE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...FRONT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A
DRY WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT MVFR TO OCNL
IFR CIGS TO BLF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR BY 18Z AT BLF. LWB MAY SEE SOME PERIODS WITH MVFR CIGS
THRU ABOUT 15Z. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. ONCE
AGAIN...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES WILL
START THE NIGHT IFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
LWB WILL LIKELY SEE LIFR FOG TOWARD MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS AND LOW TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR RIVER FOG. BLF WILL ALSO
HAVE EXCELLENT RADIATION CONDS...SO MVFR FOG IS LIKELY THERE. THE
TAF SITES FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
OVERNIGHT SO NO FOG WAS INCLUDED.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES ONCE THE
FOG LIFTS...INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TSTM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031047
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
647 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOL SHRAS CONTINUE TO PUSH E/NE ERLY THIS AM OVER PORTIONS OF SE
THIRD OF THE CWA. CAN NOT OUTRULE A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESP
OVER THE SRN MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE LOCALLY MOD RAIN FOR A SHORT
DURATION WITH SHRA ACTIVITY. ISOL CHCS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OVER NC ZONES THIS AM. MID LVL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER
THE RGN TDY WITH SOME SCT/BKN CU DVLPG IN THE AFTN. LIMITED CHCS
OF PRECIP LATER TDY BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT LATE DAY POPS
OVER THE FAR NE. THINK MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE RGN WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S N TO THE UPR 80S TO
NEAR 90 S (LOW MID 80S ALONG COASTLINE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TNT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT MID LVLS TO START OUT THE DAY ON SAT LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S FAR S. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE OVER THE
W/NW AS AN UPR LVL JET SAGS SWRD INTO THE RGN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSCD SHRTWV WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWST/OH VLY SAT NIGHT BRINGING THE CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS TMRW EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRAS DVLP LATE EVE.
ON SUN MDLS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CWA...BUT BEST CHCS OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA (ESP SW). IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES LONGER TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGHS ON
SUN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER THAN FCSTG IF MORE PRECIP DVLPS (ESP NRN
HALF).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA STILL PSBL IVOF ECG NXT FEW HRS...OTW SCT-BKN AC DECK
THIS AM ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AS LINGERING NRGY LIFTS NE. SCT CU
SHUD DVLP THIS AFTRN AS HTNG ACTS ON POCKET OF COOLER AIR ARND 5K
FT. SBY CUD SEE A CB FOR A FEW HRS ARND 22Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF ATTM TO PUT INTO TAF ATTM.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT BEST CHC
FRO MVFR CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NW SURGE DID OCCUR DRNG PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT SPEEDS GNRLY STAYED
BLO 20 KTS. MWS WAS ISSUED FOR THE GUSTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU SAT NITE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR
THE AREA WITH LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE.
XPCT WNDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD
OF FTR SUN NITE THEN GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS
OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS
SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 031040
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
640 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOL SHRAS CONTINUE TO PUSH E/NE ERLY THIS AM OVER PORTIONS OF SE
THIRD OF THE CWA. CAN NOT OUTRULE A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESP
OVER THE SRN MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE LOCALLY MOD RAIN FOR A SHORT
DURATION WITH SHRA ACTIVITY. CHCS OF PRECIP END TWRDS SUNRISE WITH
SOME CLEARING DVLPG. MID LVL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE RGN
TDY WITH SOME SCT/BKN CU DVLPG IN THE AFTN. LIMITED CHCS OF PRECIP
LATER TDY BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT LATE DAY POPS OVER THE FAR
NE. THINK MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE RGN WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WNW FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S N TO THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90 S (LOW
MID 80S ALONG COASTLINE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TNT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT MID LVLS TO START OUT THE DAY ON SAT LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S FAR S. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE OVER THE
W/NW AS AN UPR LVL JET SAGS SWRD INTO THE RGN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSCD SHRTWV WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWST/OH VLY SAT NIGHT BRINGING THE CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS TMRW EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRAS DVLP LATE EVE.
ON SUN MDLS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CWA...BUT BEST CHCS OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA (ESP SW). IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES LONGER TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGHS ON
SUN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER THAN FCSTG IF MORE PRECIP DVLPS (ESP NRN
HALF).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA STILL PSBL IVOF ECG NXT FEW HRS...OTW SCT-BKN AC DECK
THIS AM ACROSS SERN TAF SITES AS LINGERING NRGY LIFTS NE. SCT CU
SHUD DVLP THIS AFTRN AS HTNG ACTS ON POCKET OF COOLER AIR ARND 5K
FT. SBY CUD SEE A CB FOR A FEW HRS ARND 22Z BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENUF ATTM TO PUT INTO TAF ATTM.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED SAT. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NXT BEST CHC
FRO MVFR CNDTNS WITH SCAT SHWRS/TSTRMS.
&&
.MARINE...
N-NW SURGE DID OCCUR DRNG PRE-DAWN HRS...BUT SPEEDS GNRLY STAYED
BLO 20 KTS. MWS WAS ISSUED FOR THE GUSTS AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU SAT NITE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS IN.
SUNDAY GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR
THE AREA WITH LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE.
XPCT WNDS TO BECOME MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD
OF FTR SUN NITE THEN GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS
OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS
SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KRNK 030716
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
316 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL
REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD...WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
MOVG THRU PA. THIS LAST WAVE IS PUSHING AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEWD INTO WESTERN SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED THE THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
WESTERN SLOPES AREAS OF THE MTNS AND SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...I
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE FAR WEST. STILL...WILL BE MORE
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
THAN THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL APPLNS
TONIGHT...I EXPECT AT LEAST THE MTN VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE AND HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. SO...I HAVE LOWERED THE MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COLDER MTN
VALLEYS MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 40S...BUT JUST HAVE LOWER 50S FOR
NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF A
LOWER OHIO VALLEY MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD MORE OF A VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ARRIVAL WITH A PATH A BIT FARTHER NORTH. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX GRIDS AND AM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
UPSTREAM WFOS. MOVEMENT WILL BRING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. BEST POPS WILL BE IN THE WEST. GIVEN THE
PROJECTED TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN FLUX...HAVE
KEPT POPS UNDER THE LIKELY CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.
ON SUNDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA...WE WILL START
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IT WILL BE THIS FRONT THAT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER WITH WAVES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG IT...AND THUS BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING INTO CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHC POPS MONDAY SINCE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...FRONT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A
DRY WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NEWD...BU WATER VAPOR SHOWS ONE LAST SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW AND ACROSS NE OH/WRN PA. THIS WILL BRING ONE LAST SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS BANKED
UP ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILING ARE
LIKELY...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR AT BLF. MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY BE
OBSCURED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VA/SE WV WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
18Z...BUT WESTERN SLOPES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT AS DRIER AIR
MIXES TO THE SFC. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL UP AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TSRA COMPLEXES
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS
AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ/RCS
000
FXUS61 KLWX 030713
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOLD SPKLS NOTED N AND W OF CWA. SAT LOOP SHOWS SOME SPIN OVR OUR
NWRN ZONES. A WK VORT APPARENTLY WHICH THE GFS/ETA ARE NOT
INDICATING. OR ARE PERHAPS A LTL LATE WITH. A MAX IS SHOWN BY 12Z
OVR SWRN PA. IN ANY CASE...AM HAVING HARD TIME GETTING WORKED UP OVR
MUCH PRECIP TDA OR TNGT. PLANNING ON LETTING CURR SLGT CHC TO CHC
POPS RIDE. DON`T SEE MUCH COVERAGE IF ANY. INSTAB IS VERY WEAK.
OMEGA FIELDS ARE FLAT. WK SFC BOUNDARY FCST OVR SERN ZONES BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. UPSTAIRS...ALSO NOT MUCH TO WORK WITH.
FCST TEMPS LOOK FINE. STILL RUNNING A BIT BLO AVG FOR MAXES. LACK OF
PRECIP NEXT 24 HRS. BUT PRECIP WISE...STILL A HEALTHY SURPLUS FOR
THE YR SO FAR. DCA IS 3.79 ABV NORMAL SINCE 1/1. BWI 4.19" EXCESS.
TX CONTS TO BAKE. 100+ DEGS AT MANY STNS THERE AGAIN YESTERDAY.
HOUSTON/IAH HAS HAD A LTL OVR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN SINCE JUNE 1.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ANYTHING THAT FORMS SHD DIE A DIURNAL DEATH SHORTLY AFT SUNSET.
MIN TEMPS 50S...TO L60S URBAN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL SUITE OF 0Z RUNS OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE DAY DRY.
HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE THAT HAD BE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS...NOW LOOKS TO TRAVEL NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROF OF THIS WEEK
APPEARS TO BE LIFTING A LITTLE FASTER NEWARD OUT OF NEW ENGLAND
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE DISTURBANCE CLOSER AND LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...HAVE
INCREASED POPS A LITTLE LATE SAT THRU MONDAY. GFS/GEFS/ECMWF KEEPTHE
AREA DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT 0Z NAM PROJECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE AREA AS EARLY AS
LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
SEASONAL TEMPS IN 80S SUNDAY...BUT CWA IS ON COOL SIDE OF SUNDAY
STORM SYSTEM...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME AREAS WILL STAY
IN THE 70S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS AND TSTMS RIDING ALONG
IT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH PULLING
THE FRONT EASTWARD AND DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS BELOW CLIMO THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO ENCROACH FROM THE SW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH TNGT.
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING OUT AT
10 TO 15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOONS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY...MAKING BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT AREA AIRPORTS BE AT KCHO.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS UP JUST A BIT ATTM WITH GUSTS IN THE HIGH TEENS...BUT GRADIENT
FCST DOES NOT WARRANT ANY FLAGS TDA OR TNGT.
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SETS UP TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT LOOK TO RMN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RDH
NEAR TERM...RDH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RDH/SBK
MARINE...RDH/SBK
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030656
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
256 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TODAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ISOL SHRAS CONTINUE TO PUSH E/NE ERLY THIS AM OVER PORTIONS OF SE
THIRD OF THE CWA. CAN NOT OUTRULE A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESP
OVER THE SRN MARINE ZONES. COULD SEE LOCALLY MOD RAIN FOR A SHORT
DURATION WITH SHRA ACTIVITY. CHCS OF PRECIP END TWRDS SUNRISE WITH
SOME CLEARING DVLPG. MID LVL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE RGN
TDY WITH SOME SCT/BKN CU DVLPG IN THE AFTN. LIMITED CHCS OF PRECIP
LATER TDY BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT LATE DAY POPS OVER THE FAR
NE. THINK MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE RGN WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WNW FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S N TO THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90 S (LOW
MID 80S ALONG COASTLINE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS TNT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT MID LVLS TO START OUT THE DAY ON SAT LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S FAR S. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE OVER THE
W/NW AS AN UPR LVL JET SAGS SWRD INTO THE RGN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSCD SHRTWV WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWST/OH VLY SAT NIGHT BRINGING THE CHCS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.
GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS TMRW EVE WILL BE ABLE
TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRAS DVLP LATE EVE.
ON SUN MDLS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CWA...BUT BEST CHCS OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA (ESP SW). IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES LONGER TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGHS ON
SUN ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BUT
COULD SEE IT COOLER THAN FCSTG IF MORE PRECIP DVLPS (ESP NRN
HALF).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT INTO MON. THAT BNDRY
WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON THRU TUE...AS SFC
HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLY AND JUST TO OUR W. AT THIS
TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR PCPN
ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER) FOR
MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND OFFSHR.
NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF THE
REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA ALONG EWRD MOVG TROF IVOF KPHF/KORF NXT HR OR TWO AND
PSBLY NR KECG BY 08Z. LTL IF ANY AVIATION CONCERNS AS ANY LGT RAIN
THAT MIGHT OCCUR WILL FALL OUT OF A MID LVL CLOUD DECK AOA 5K FT.
OTW...WNDS TURN NW THRU 12Z AND MAYBE EVEN MORE NRLY AT KORF AFTR
TROF PASSAGE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH (IF ANY) BR DVLPS AT SBY NXT FEW
HRS...BUT KEPT A TEMPO GROUP TOWARDS SR. ONLY SCT CU XPCTD THRU
DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO COOLER AIR NR 5K FT.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT SIGNFICANT
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO FLAGS XPCTD IN SHORT TERM...BUT WILL CONT TO MONITOR THE SURGE
BEHIND THE TROF PASSAGE THRU 12Z. PLAN ON STARTING OFF WITH NW WNDS
ARND 15 KT...WITH A DMNSHG TREND AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
W-NW FLOW CONTS THRU SAT NITE WITH SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SUNDAY GETS A
BIT MORE INTERESTING AS NXT FRNTL BNDRY STALLS OVR THE AREA WITH LOW
PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG THE BNDRY SUN NITE. XPCT WNDS TO BECOME
MORE SRLY SUN (STILL BLO SCA LVLS)...SW AHEAD OF FTR SUN NITE THEN
GO MORE NRTHLY BY MONDAY MORN AS SYSTM EXITS OFFSHORE. STILL PLNTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS SITN FOR PTNTL FLAGS SUN NITE OR MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KRNK 030541
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND IN TO PA THIS EVENING
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS PERCHED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OR EXITED THE
AREA. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A THETA-E BOUNDARY BUT COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
POPS. WILL ADD SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO COVER MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION.
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING WILL KEEP BREEZY
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. THROUGH THE
EVENING...INVERSION WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS DECOUPLE.
MIXING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DETER FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. PATTERN ALMOST RESEMBLES A NW UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT DURING
THE WINTER WITH ABOUT 30-40 DEGREES ADDED TO IT. SORRY...NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH CLOUDS AND WIND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. GENERALLY 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH NEAR
60F IN THE EAST...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AT 17Z WILL
ROTATE EAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLOUDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
KFCX 88D IMAGE INDICATED THAT SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS.
DECIDE TO INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT...UNTIL SUNSET THEN DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED THE
WARMER MET GUID FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE SLOW MOVING GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. WITH
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF CWA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
UP A FEW DEGREES. PLAYED HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT A
REBOUND. QUESTION FOR THE FORTH OF JULY WEEKEND IS WHAT WILL THE
CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN BRING. ATTM...THINK AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WESTERLY WINDS AIDING IN THE SUBSIDENCE...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.
WEST OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WEST WINDS WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS AROUND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS...ESP
THE GFS...SEEM TO BE OVERLY GENEROUS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE PRECIP THREAT AND WOULD SUGGEST OUR FORECAST AREA TO SUCCUMB
TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL HEDGE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS HAVING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR OUR CWA AND KEEP SATURDAY MAINLY DRY.
THINK INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
WHICH FORMS OVER THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL TAKE A NOSE
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY...STAYING MAINLY WEST OF OUR
CWA. FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WOULD
THINK THIS REASONABLE AS OUR CWA WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE
COMPARED TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR FORECAST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS
FOR SUNDAY...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
CLOUD THAT IS GENERATED COULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA CUTTING DOWN ON
SUNDAYS INSTABILITY...LEAVING US RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE. AS
SUCH WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AS THE MODEL WOULD
LEAD ME TO BELIEVE AND KEEP POPS AOB 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING INTO CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHC POPS MONDAY SINCE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...FRONT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A
DRY WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NEWD...BU WATER VAPOR SHOWS ONE LAST SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW AND ACROSS NE OH/WRN PA. THIS WILL BRING ONE LAST SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS BANKED
UP ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILING ARE
LIKELY...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR AT BLF. MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY BE
OBSCURED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VA/SE WV WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
18Z...BUT WESTERN SLOPES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT AS DRIER AIR
MIXES TO THE SFC. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL UP AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TSRA COMPLEXES
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS
AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ/RCS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030519
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED OVRNT HRS FOR ISOL SHRA OVER THE ERN/SRN THIRD OF THE CWA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH ANY SHRAS THAT DO
FLARE UP BUT GIVEN SHRAS STILL NOTED OVER EASTERN SHORE AND
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...WL HOLD ONTO ISO THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ERN SHORE INTO THE PREDAWN HRS THIS MORNING.
WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENINGS...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S
COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA ALONG EWRD MOVG TROF IVOF KPHF/KORF NXT HR OR TWO AND
PSBLY NR KECG BY 08Z. LTL IF ANY AVIATION CONCERNS AS ANY LGT RAIN
THAT MIGHT OCCUR WILL FALL OUT OF A MID LVL CLOUD DECK AOA 5K FT.
OTW...WNDS TURN NW THRU 12Z AND MAYBE EVEN MORE NRLY AT KORF AFTR
TROF PASSAGE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH (IF ANY) BR DVLPS AT SBY NXT FEW
HRS...BUT KEPT A TEMPO GROUP TOWARDS SR. ONLY SCT CU XPCTD THRU
DAYLIGHT HRS DUE TO COOLER AIR NR 5K FT.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT SIGNFICANT
CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
TUFF CALL ON WHETHER WNDS INCREAS TO LOW END SCA LVLS AFTR 06Z.
TROF MOVG MOVG ACROSS CHES BAY AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THRU NIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH OF A SURGE OCCURS NXT
FEW HRS. RUC BRINGS WNDS INTO 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS CHES BAY WHILE
BOTH WRF AND SREF TEND TO HOLD WNDS ARND 15 KTS. GIVEN CRNT OBS
UPSTREAM (A FEW GUSTS TO ARND 18 KTS) WILL NOT HOIST ANY FLAGS
ATTM BUT INDCT NW WNDS INCRS TO A SOLID 15 KTS THRU OVRNITE HRS.
IF WNDS AND OR GUSTS DO REACH 20 KTS...WILL LIKELY EITHER ISSUE A
SHORT TERM MWS TO COVER THIS SURGE OR HOIST A FEW HRS PRD OF SCA.
A SECOND BNDRY MOVES THRU FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD
FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE
FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4
FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/TMG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030427
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1227 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED OVRNT HRS FOR ISOL SHRA OVER THE ERN/SRN THIRD OF THE CWA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH ANY SHRAS THAT DO
FLARE UP BUT GIVEN SHRAS STILL NOTED OVER EASTERN SHORE AND
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...WL HOLD ONTO ISO THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ERN SHORE INTO THE PREDAWN HRS THIS MORNING.
WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENINGS...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S
COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA AS OF 00Z WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
ANY TAF SITES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MRNG BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SBY BUT SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND
SOME MID LVL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TO IFR.
SOME STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN PER NAM SOUNDINGS AND COOL AIR
AT THE 800-850MB LEVEL.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
SIGNFICANT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
TUFF CALL ON WHETHER WNDS INCREAS TO LOW END SCA LVLS AFTR 06Z.
TROF MOVG MOVG ACROSS CHES BAY AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THRU NIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH OF A SURGE OCCURS NXT
FEW HRS. RUC BRINGS WNDS INTO 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS CHES BAY WHILE
BOTH WRF AND SREF TEND TO HOLD WNDS ARND 15 KTS. GIVEN CRNT OBS
UPSTREAM (A FEW GUSTS TO ARND 18 KTS) WILL NOT HOIST ANY FLAGS
ATTM BUT INDCT NW WNDS INCRS TO A SOLID 15 KTS THRU OVRNITE HRS.
IF WNDS AND OR GUSTS DO REACH 20 KTS...WILL LIKELY EITHER ISSUE A
SHORT TERM MWS TO COVER THIS SURGE OR HOIST A FEW HRS PRD OF SCA.
A SECOND BNDRY MOVES THRU FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD
FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE
FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES 1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4
FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/TMG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030320
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1120 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED OVRNT HRS FOR ISOL SHRA OVER THE ERN/SRN THIRD OF THE CWA
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH ANY SHRAS THAT DO
FLARE UP BUT GIVEN SHRAS STILL NOTED OVER EASTERN SHORE AND
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...WL HOLD ONTO ISO THUNDER WORDING OVER THE
ERN SHORE INTO THE PREDAWN HRS THIS MORNING.
WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENINGS...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S
COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA AS OF 00Z WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
ANY TAF SITES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MRNG BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SBY BUT SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND
SOME MID LVL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TO IFR.
SOME STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN PER NAM SOUNDINGS AND COOL AIR
AT THE 800-850MB LEVEL.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
SIGNFICANT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...CCW/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030149 AAA
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
949 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
PIVOTING AROUND THE BOTTOM PERIMETER OF THE LOW.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCT SHRAS (LTL/NO THUNDER THUS FAR) OVER
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE...AND
FARTHER WEST OVER I-85 CORRIDOR AS S/W CONTINUES TO CROSS THE
REGION. AS EXPECTED...AS WHAT MEAGER SBCAPE WE HAD EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. SO GIVEN
THIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HV PULLED POPS OVERNIGHT
INLAND. HOWEVER...RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT
TRAVERSING THE TIDEWATER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG
WITH ANY SHRAS THAT DO FLARE UP BUT GIVEN SHRAS STILL NOTED OVER
EASTERN SHORE AND CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...WL HOLD ONTO ISO
THUNDER WORDING INTO THE PREDAWN HRS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MID/UPR FLOW BECOMES MORE DOWNSLOPE (DRIER) OVERNIGHT
AND WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENINGS...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S
COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPPER LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA AS OF 00Z WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
ANY TAF SITES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MRNG BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SBY BUT SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND
SOME MID LVL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TO IFR.
SOME STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN PER NAM SOUNDINGS AND COOL AIR
AT THE 800-850MB LEVEL.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
SIGNFICANT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...JYM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KLWX 030145 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONGOING SHRA XPCD TO MOVE EWD NEXT FEW HRS. WINDS GUSTED THIS EVE
AS BNDRY MOVED ACRS...WITH BNDRY CURRENTLY ACRS CHSPK BAY. MID-
LVL CLDS XPCD TO LINGER...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TNGT. GIVEN XPCD
CLD CVR...MINIMA MAY NOT COOL AS QUICKLY AS PREVLY THOUGHT. THUS
HAVE WARMED MINIMA BY 1-3 DEG F...AND INCRD CLD CVR SLGTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
DESPITE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO SEVERE T-STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY ENFORCING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
EVENING...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. OUR REGION SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WHICH MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ALSO TO OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR THIS
REASON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE COOL AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WILL RANGE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
TO CHANCE CLOSER TO THAT DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL SATURDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE MID 80S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ENFORCED OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME. OUR REGION
SHOULD REMAIN REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING MUCH OF THE
TIME DRY...HOWEVER ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIMINISHING WINDS...AND SCT-BKN MID-LVL CLDS XPCD THRU TNGT.
WNWLY WINDS INCR BY MID-MRNG AS SCT-BKN CU DVLP. SHRA XPCD TO FORM
BY MID-DAY AS COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTS IN MODEST INSTBY. HAVE
INCLUDED CB AT MOST TERMINALS TO SIGNAL DVLPMT OF SHRA BY AFTN.
TSRA NOT XPCD.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WNWLY WINDS WITH GUSTS GENLY 15 KT...INFREQUENTLY TO 20 KT...WILL
PERSIST NEXT FEW HRS AS BNDRY MOVES ACRS CHSPK BAY. ONGOING SHRA
WILL MOVE EWD.
HAVE ISSUED MRN WX STMT TO HIGHLIGHT INFREQUENT GUSTS AS CVRG AND
DURATION OF SAME NOT XPCD TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADZY.
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED
AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS
WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KRAMAR
PREV DISCUSSION...HTS/LASORSA
000
FXUS61 KRNK 030055
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
855 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND IN TO PA THIS EVENING
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS PERCHED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OR EXITED THE
AREA. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A THETA-E BOUNDARY BUT COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
POPS. WILL ADD SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO COVER MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION.
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING WILL KEEP BREEZY
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST. THROUGH THE
EVENING...INVERSION WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHILE OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS DECOUPLE.
MIXING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DETER FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. PATTERN ALMOST RESEMBLES A NW UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT DURING
THE WINTER WITH ABOUT 30-40 DEGREES ADDED TO IT. SORRY...NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH CLOUDS AND WIND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. GENERALLY 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH NEAR
60F IN THE EAST...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AT 17Z WILL
ROTATE EAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLOUDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
KFCX 88D IMAGE INDICATED THAT SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS.
DECIDE TO INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT...UNTIL SUNSET THEN DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED THE
WARMER MET GUID FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE SLOW MOVING GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. WITH
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF CWA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
UP A FEW DEGREES. PLAYED HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT A
REBOUND. QUESTION FOR THE FORTH OF JULY WEEKEND IS WHAT WILL THE
CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN BRING. ATTM...THINK AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WESTERLY WINDS AIDING IN THE SUBSIDENCE...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.
WEST OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WEST WINDS WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS AROUND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS...ESP
THE GFS...SEEM TO BE OVERLY GENEROUS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE PRECIP THREAT AND WOULD SUGGEST OUR FORECAST AREA TO SURCOME
TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL HEDGE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS HAVING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR OUR CWA AND KEEP SATURDAY MAINLY DRY.
THINK INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
WHICH FORMS OVER THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL TAKE A NOSE
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY...STAYING MAINLY WEST OF OUR
CWA. FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WOULD
THINK THIS REASONANABLE AS OUR CWA WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE
COMPARED TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR FORECAST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS
FOR SUNDAY...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
CLOUD THAT IS GENERATED COULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA CUTTING DOWN ON
SUNDAYS INSTABILITY...LEAVING US RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE. AS
SUCH WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AS THE MODEL WOULD
LEAD ME TO BELIEVE AND KEEP POPS AOB 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING INTO CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHC POPS MONDAY SINCE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...FRONT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A
DRY WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE COMING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR CEILING ARE LIKELY AFTER 05Z FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR TOWARDS SUNRISE...MAINLY AT BLF. MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY BE
OBSCURED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VA/SE WV WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY THIS
EVENING WITH PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENTERING THE
REGION. AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...THESE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE ALONG
HIGHER RIDGE ABOVE 3500 FEET. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS SITES MAY
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH MIXING WILL DETER FOG FROM FORMING.
THETA-E BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO NC BY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TSRA COMPLEXES DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RCS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030021 AAA
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
821 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPR LVL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
PIVOTING AROUND THE BOTTOM PERIMETER OF THE LOW.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCT SHRAS (LTL/NO THUNDER THUS FAR) OVER
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-85 AS S/W
CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION. A FEW MORE SHRAS WERE ALSO NOTED
ACROSS THE NECK/EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. HV CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHC POPS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH SHRAS ON THE RADAR
STARTING DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ANTICIPATE BEING ABLE TO
DROP POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) ZONES
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSING THE
TIDEWATER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
PWATS DO SPIKE BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT SO WE COULD SEE A RENEGADE CELL
OR TWO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH
ANY SHRAS THAT DO FLARE UP. OTHERWISE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
DOWNSLOPE (DRIER) OVERNIGHT AND WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS
DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. WL END ANY LINGERING POPS BY 10Z.
FOR LOWS...LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST EVENINGS...WITH L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOL SHRA AS OF 00Z WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT
ANY TAF SITES. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MRNG BUT VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AT SBY BUT SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS AND
SOME MID LVL CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TO IFR.
SOME STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTN PER NAM SOUNDINGS AND COOL AIR
AT THE 800-850MB LEVEL.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT
SIGNFICANT CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS WILL BE ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...JYM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030012
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
812 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPR LVL LOW OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...WITH THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF S/W TROFS
PIVOTING AROUND THE BOTTOM PERIMETER OF THE LOW.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCT SHRAS (LTL/NO THUNDER THUS FAR) OVER
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-85 AS S/W
CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION. A FEW MORE SHRAS WERE ALSO NOTED
ACROSS THE NECK/EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. HV CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHC POPS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH SHRAS ON THE RADAR
STARTING DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING ANTICIPATE BEING ABLE TO
DROP POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) ZONES
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT TRAVERSING THE
TIDEWATER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE.
PWATS DO SPIKE BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT SO WE COULD SEE A RENEGADE CELL
OR TWO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL CVG WITH
ANY SHRAS THAT DO FLARE UP. OTHERWISE...FLOW BECOMES MORE
DOWNSLOPE (DRIER) OVERNIGHT AND WL LKLY SEE QUICK CLEARING TOWARDS
DAWN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. WL END ANY LINGERING POPS BY 10Z.
FOR LOWS...LOOKING FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST EVENINGS...WITH L/M 60S INLAND...M/U60S COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER W/NW
FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER THAN TDA AS THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A
DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINE OF SCT TS ACRS CTRL VA WILL IMPACT NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVNG BEFORE DIMINISHING. SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO WRLY EARLY THU MORNING. VFR EXP OUTSIDE
OF PCPN TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FOR PCPN
WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT SBY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM/MAM
NEAR TERM...JYM/MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KRNK 022313
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
713 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND IN TO PA THIS EVENING
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS PERCHED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEING GENERATED BY SOME OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WITH LOSE OF HEATING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. NOT LOOKING AT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. THIS COASTAL CONVECTION AND THETA-E BOUNDARY
TRACKING ACROSS THE THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THE DRIER COOLER AIR...MOISTURE IS
STILL PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL KEPT CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLES. DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AT 17Z WILL
ROTATE EAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLOUDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
KFCX 88D IMAGE INDICATED THAT SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS.
DECIDE TO INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT...UNTIL SUNSET THEN DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED THE
WARMER MET GUID FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE SLOW MOVING GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. WITH
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF CWA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
UP A FEW DEGREES. PLAYED HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT A
REBOUND. QUESTION FOR THE FORTH OF JULY WEEKEND IS WHAT WILL THE
CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN BRING. ATTM...THINK AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WESTERLY WINDS AIDING IN THE SUBSIDENCE...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.
WEST OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WEST WINDS WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS AROUND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS...ESP
THE GFS...SEEM TO BE OVERLY GENEROUS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE PRECIP THREAT AND WOULD SUGGEST OUR FORECAST AREA TO SURCOME
TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL HEDGE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS HAVING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR OUR CWA AND KEEP SATURDAY MAINLY DRY.
THINK INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
WHICH FORMS OVER THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL TAKE A NOSE
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY...STAYING MAINLY WEST OF OUR
CWA. FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WOULD
THINK THIS REASONANABLE AS OUR CWA WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE
COMPARED TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR FORECAST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS
FOR SUNDAY...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
CLOUD THAT IS GENERATED COULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA CUTTING DOWN ON
SUNDAYS INSTABILITY...LEAVING US RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE. AS
SUCH WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AS THE MODEL WOULD
LEAD ME TO BELIEVE AND KEEP POPS AOB 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING INTO CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHC POPS MONDAY SINCE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...FRONT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A
DRY WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE COMING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
KEEP CLOUDS BANKED UP ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR CEILING ARE LIKELY AFTER 05Z FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR TOWARDS SUNRISE...MAINLY AT BLF. MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY BE
OBSCURED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VA/SE WV WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY THIS
EVENING WITH PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ENTERING THE
REGION. AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...THESE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE ALONG
HIGHER RIDGE ABOVE 3500 FEET. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS SITES MAY
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH MIXING WILL DETER FOG FROM FORMING.
THETA-E BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO NC BY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR PROVIDING VFR
CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TSRA COMPLEXES DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF
MVFR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KK/RCS
000
FXUS61 KRNK 022229
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
629 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND IN TO PA THIS EVENING
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS PERCHED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEING GENERATED BY SOME OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WITH LOSE OF HEATING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. NOT LOOKING AT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION. THIS COASTAL CONVECTION AND THETA-E BOUNDARY
TRACKING ACROSS THE THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. DESPITE THE DRIER COOLER AIR...MOISTURE IS
STILL PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL KEPT CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLES. DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AT 17Z WILL
ROTATE EAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CLOUDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.
KFCX 88D IMAGE INDICATED THAT SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS.
DECIDE TO INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT...UNTIL SUNSET THEN DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED THE
WARMER MET GUID FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE SLOW MOVING GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. WITH
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF CWA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
UP A FEW DEGREES. PLAYED HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT A
REBOUND. QUESTION FOR THE FORTH OF JULY WEEKEND IS WHAT WILL THE
CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN BRING. ATTM...THINK AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WESTERLY WINDS AIDING IN THE SUBSIDENCE...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.
WEST OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WEST WINDS WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS AROUND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS...ESP
THE GFS...SEEM TO BE OVERLY GENEROUS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE PRECIP THREAT AND WOULD SUGGEST OUR FORECAST AREA TO SURCOME
TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL HEDGE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS HAVING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR OUR CWA AND KEEP SATURDAY MAINLY DRY.
THINK INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
WHICH FORMS OVER THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL TAKE A NOSE
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY...STAYING MAINLY WEST OF OUR
CWA. FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WOULD
THINK THIS REASONANABLE AS OUR CWA WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE
COMPARED TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR FORECAST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS
FOR SUNDAY...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
CLOUD THAT IS GENERATED COULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA CUTTING DOWN ON
SUNDAYS INSTABILITY...LEAVING US RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE. AS
SUCH WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AS THE MODEL WOULD
LEAD ME TO BELIEVE AND KEEP POPS AOB 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING INTO CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHC POPS MONDAY SINCE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...FRONT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A
DRY WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT BLF AND
LWB...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE PIEDMONT. BLF AND LWB HAVE THE BEST CHC TO SEE RAIN
TODAY...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHORT
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR PROVIDING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TSRA COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KRNK 021958
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AT 17Z WILL ROTATE EAST AROUND
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED CLOUDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. KFCX 88D IMAGE
INDICATED THAT SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS. DECIDE TO
INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT...UNTIL SUNSET THEN DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED THE WARMER MET GUID FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.
THE SLOW MOVING GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. WITH
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF CWA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
UP A FEW DEGREES. PLAYED HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ANOMOLOUS UPPER LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT A
REBOUND. QUESTION FOR THE FORTH OF JULY WEEKEND IS WHAT WILL THE
CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN BRING. ATTM...THINK AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
WESTERLY WINDS AIDING IN THE SUBSIDENCE...ESP EAST OF THE MTNS.
WEST OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WEST WINDS WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS AROUND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS...ESP
THE GFS...SEEM TO BE OVERLY GENEROUS WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE PRECIP THREAT AND WOULD SUGGEST OUR FORECAST AREA TO SURCOME
TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL HEDGE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS HAVING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR OUR CWA AND KEEP SATURDAY MAINLY DRY.
THINK INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
WHICH FORMS OVER THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL TAKE A NOSE
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY...STAYING MAINLY WEST OF OUR
CWA. FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND WOULD
THINK THIS REASONANABLE AS OUR CWA WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE
COMPARED TO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR FORECAST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS
FOR SUNDAY...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TRANSPIRES OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEYS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS
CLOUD THAT IS GENERATED COULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA CUTTING DOWN ON
SUNDAYS INSTABILITY...LEAVING US RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE. AS
SUCH WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AS THE MODEL WOULD
LEAD ME TO BELIEVE AND KEEP POPS AOB 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY REAMPLIFY WITH THE MID
CONUS RIDGE NOSING INTO CANADA AND TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NET SLOWING OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
AND FOR US SHOULD SUPPRESS WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH LEAVING
OUR FORECAST AREA DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY
SENSIBLE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHC POPS MONDAY SINCE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...FRONT SHOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NET EFFECT FOR OUR CWA SHOULD BE A
DRY WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT BLF AND
LWB...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE PIEDMONT. BLF AND LWB HAVE THE BEST CHC TO SEE RAIN
TODAY...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHORT
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR PROVIDING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TSRA COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021947
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DECENT CU FIELD HAS DVLPD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 SE AND ONLY MID TO UPR 70S NW COUNTIES.
EXPECT A FEW ISOLD SHRA/POSSIBLE TS UP IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WHERE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IS NOTED...AS WELL
AS WHERE A WEAK S/W ALOFT WILL TRACK AS SEEN BY WV IMAGERY. SOME
WEAK ENERGY ALOFT ALSO TRACKS TO THE TIDEWATER AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING...AND WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLD
CELLS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT JUST A FEW DEGREES BLO LAST NIGHT`S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP
LAYER W/NW FLOW COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA DRY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION.
TEMPS DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL
TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
A DEFINITE SHIFT TO NW FLOW FRI NIGHT...SO ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED FOR ANY FIREWORKS PLANNED FRI NIGHT.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP SILENT POPS FOR ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE NAM DEPICTS SOME WEAK
ENERGY MVG THROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LGT
SHRA OR TWO. HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: MID 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPR 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE WE`LL LIKELY
SEE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DIDN`T INCREASE POPS
ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. KEPT PRETTY MODERATE
TEMPS AS WELL...WARM BUT WITH CLOUD CVR KEEPING MAXES IN THE MID
80S MOST LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES OFF THE CST AND LAYS JUST S OF THE AREA SUN NGT
INTO MON. THAT BNDRY WILL THEN LAY ACRS THE CAROLINAS OR SE U.S. MON
THRU TUE...AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE OH VLLY AND JUST TO OUR W.
AT THIS TIME...WILL GO CLSR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS SML CHCS FOR
PCPN ACRS OUR NE NC CNTIES (POSSIBLY SRN VA CNTIES NR THE BORDER)
FOR MON THRU TUE...AS WAVES OF LO PRES MOVE ALNG THE BNDRY AND
OFFSHR. NRN STREAM NW FLO ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH THAT FRNT WELL S OF
THE REGION TUE NGT THRU THU...AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES TO BLD INTO AND
OVR THE FCST AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ALL SITES THRU FRI WITH ONLY CHC OF ISOLD AFTN RARLY EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY NRN PORTION OF CWA AND EASTERN SHORE. HAVE CB
IN RIC AND SBY THRU THIS EVE. GUSTY WINDS LT 20 KT RIC/SBY THIS AFTN.
W-NW WINDS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU SAT. WEAK FRNT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA LATE THIS EVENG/OVRNGT...AND A SECOND ONE EXPECTED FRI
NGT INTO SAT MORNG. A STRNGER COLD FRNT WILL THEN DROP THRU SUN NGT
INTO MON MORNG. DESPITE THESE FRNTS...CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 3 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JYM
NEAR TERM...JYM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...TMG
000
FXUS61 KLWX 021851
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLDS HV ADVCD ACRS CWFA TAFTN...LARGELY DIURNAL CU FILLING IN ACRS
PRVSLY SUNNY SKIES. WDLY SCT SHRA HV DVLPD AS WELL...BUT LMTD INSTBY
HV INHIBITED THEIR GROWTH. A FEW CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO MATURE ENUF TO
CONTAIN THUNDER...BUT THOSE SHUD BE THE XCPTN FOR THE REST OF TDA.
POPS THRU SUNSET WL BE IN THE 20-30 PCT RNG...AND WL BEGIN TO WANE
THRAFTR.
WK S/WVS WL CONT TO ROTATE ARND UPR LOW AS IT LIFTS INTO QUE TNGT.
ALTHO SHRA NOT ENTIRELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ITS A BIG COMPONENT.
SINCE PVA WL BE DIMINISHING AS WL SOLAR HEATING...WL SCALE BACK POPS
THRU THE NGT...AND GO DRY OVNGT.
WLY WNDS HV RESULTED IN LWR DEWPTS TDA. AS CLDS SCT OUT OVNGT AND
WNDS DIMINISH...WL HV A CHC AT RADL COOLING. MOS MIN-T SEEM
REASONABLE...AND WL BE A BE A CPL UNDER THIS MRNGS READINGS...SPCLY
AWAY FM THE CITIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...ABOUT
FIVE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
DESPITE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LIMITED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO SEVERE T-STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY ENFORCING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY
EVENING...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. OUR REGION SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WHICH MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ALSO TO OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT ON POPS FOR THIS
REASON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE COOL AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THIS MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WILL RANGE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
TO CHANCE CLOSER TO THAT DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL SATURDAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
THE MID 80S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ENFORCED OVER OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME. OUR REGION
SHOULD REMAIN REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS KEEPING MUCH OF THE
TIME DRY...HOWEVER ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE BOUNDARY CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT LIVED AND WDLY SCT SHRA ACROSS AREA ATTM. OPTED TO KEEP VCSH
IN TAFS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN...ALTHO THINK IMPACT WL BE MINOR.
VFR WL PREVAIL...AS CIGS ARND 060-080. CAN/T RULE OUT TS...BUT RISK
OF IT IS WAAAY TOO LOW TO INCL IN TAFS.
LOW DECK WL DSPT AFDK...AND CLDS SHUD SCT OUT OVNGT. XPCT WNDS TO
DIMINISH AS WELL...THO TRAJ WL BE STDY W. SIMLR PTTN WL REPEAT
ITSELF TMRW...AS SCT DIURNAL CU IN THE MRNG...W/ VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTN. A SHRA THREAT RTNS IN THE AFTN...BUT ITS TOO LMTD ATTM TO
INCL.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH
DAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OUT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WNDS ON THE WATERS HV STAYED BLO 15 KT. LTST MDL SDNGS AND WRF GDNC
SUGGEST THAT TREND WL CONT...AND WL CANX SCA. WRF-ARW4 SUGGESTS WLY
WNDS WL PICK UP AFDK...BUT DIURNAL TRENDS AND OVRALL WK FLOW REGIME
PUTS THAT SOLN IN DOUBT ATTM.
A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...BUT WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS CAPPED
AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WELL...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...HTS/BJL
MARINE...HTS/BJL
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021800
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/W ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN HOWEVER. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONTINUED
TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC POPS WELL N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER
DPVA AND CONVERGENCE VALUES...AND ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. WEAK 1000-850 MB CAA WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS VS THOSE ATTAINED YDAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA
IN THE MID-UPR 80S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR
90S ELSEWHERE (COOLEST OVER PIEDMONT REGION...WARMEST SE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY FCST
CHALLENGE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
ON FRIDAY...UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP
LAYER NWLY FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850
MB THERMAL TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ALL SITES THRU FRI WITH ONLY CHC OF ISOLD AFTN RARLY EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY NRN PORTION OF CWA AND EASTERN SHORE. HAVE CB
IN RIC AND SBY THRU THIS EVE. GUSTY WINDS LT 20 KT RIC/SBY THIS AFTN.
W-NW WINDS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM THRU FRI. NEXT FRTNL BOUNDARY PUSH
OVER THE WATERS EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. FRNTL BNDRY STALLS
OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH/JYM
SHORT TERM...BKH/MAM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KRNK 021736
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE INCREASING WITH A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURES TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED
SC ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY SE WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION MAY
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM AND
WRFARW-RNK STILL SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THEY MAY SPILL FURTHER EASTWARD...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. BECAUSE
THE WEST WIND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD HINDER CONVECTION.
THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM LOWER 70S WITH LOW CLOUDS TO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH FULL SUN. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES UPPER LOW INTO NRN OH. MODELS BRING THIS WAVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPLNS TODAY. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY/S SHORT WAVE...AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA DOES
NOT BACK MUCH AHEAD OF IT. WITH MORE OF A PURELY WEST WIND...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE IN THE MTNS...AND MAINLY
WESTERN SLOPES. I HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE
MTNS TODAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME COLD ADVECTION TODAY BEHIND A SHORT
WAVE EXITING THE MID ATL COAST. THE 00Z UA PLOT SHOWED 850 MB
TEMPS 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. I HAVE KEPT HIGH ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE- ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS WHERE THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF CLOUDS.
THIS LAST SHORT WAVE MOVG THRU THE CENTRAL APPLNS WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA TONIGHT...SO I ONLY HAVE LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL- IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOW MOVING GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST AND NORTH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND WE WILL START TO SEE
TEMPERATURES INCH UP A LITTLE. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE TEXAS UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE DEEP
SOUTH. TWO THINGS WILL HAPPEN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WE WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A MID-WEST MCS TO RIDE ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO
OUR AREA.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES HEADING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHAT
DOES HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL TO MODEL IS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH...THUS RESULTING IN THE TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES SLOWLY SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE TRIED TO
DEPICT THIS IN THE POP/WX GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN TROUGH RELAXES A BIT AS UPPER HIGH MOVES TO THE GULF COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WAA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AN
END TO THE DIURNAL SHWS/STORMS GENERATED UNDER STRONG JULY SUNSHINE
AND CHILLY MID LEVELS. WITH HIGH CLDS HOLDING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE MORNING OF THE 4TH
SHOULD BE COOL AND COMFORTABLE. LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL SEND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TN VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A FEW MCS WILL BE GENERATED ALONG THIS
PATH...AND THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY TURN THESE SYSTEMS MAKE AS THEY NEAR SE WEST
VA/SW VA/NW NC. WITH WNW WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING OVER THE APPLN MTNS. BETTER THICKNESS
DIVERGENCE ARRIVES ALONG WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO THIS MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR SOMETHING TO
ARRIVE. STILL THOUGH...BEST CHC SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BLF/MKJ/MWK LINE.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE SUITE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE
STRONG VORTEX OFF THE OP GFS SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE RESULTING
FASTER...DEEPER H5 FLOW FROM THAT MODEL MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIP WHICH HANGS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AND SEEMS TO BE MORE STABLE IN REGARDS TO NEXT
WEEK`S SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ON MONDAY FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT BLF AND
LWB...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE PIEDMONT. BLF AND LWB HAVE THE BEST CHC TO SEE RAIN
TODAY...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHORT
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR PROVIDING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TSRA COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JJ/KK
000
FXUS61 KLWX 021415
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY...THEN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE COULD AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPR LOW DISPLACED A BIT FRTHR NE FM YDA...AS WL THE TRACK OF S/WVS
THAT ROTATE ARND IT. THAT WL PLACE CWFA ON THE FRINGE OF POTL
ACTVTY. THIS MRNGS 12Z LWX RAOB...MODIFIED FOR AFTN FCST OF
81/61...WAS MUCH MORE STBL THAN PRVS CPL DAYS-- SBCAPE LESS THAN
1000 J/KG...AND MLCAPE ONLY A CPL HND. BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING ACTS
ON MOCLR SKIES OBSVD ON VSBL STLT E OF BLURDG...XPCT DIURNAL CU TO
DVLP. DO BELIEVE THERE WL BE ENUF INSTBY FOR WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA AS
WELL...BUT DONT XPCT STORMS TO GAIN APPRECIABLE STRENGTH.
H8 CAA PTTN ONGOING TDA...THO ACTUAL TEMPS/HGTS DONT DROP MUCH. WL
SHADE MAXT DWN A CPL ACRS THE E...BASED ON ANTICIPATED CLDCVR. WRN
SXNS LOOK OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH AND/OR PUSH NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. STRONG
CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S MOST
AREAS...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMA.
WITH MID/UPPER MOISTURE STILL STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ON WESTERN SLOPES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL STILL WARRANT CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...DRY
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY RAIN-FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER TROUGHINESS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PREVENT A DRY FORECAST
UNTIL THEN AS DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND ITS BASE ALTHOUGH
ANY CONVECTION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAVE A DIURNAL BIAS. HAVE
ORIENTED HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOWER /SLGT CHC/ POPS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. HAVE ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA CLOSEST TO
AN UPPER JET. DESPITE THIS...WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGHINESS IN PLACE
HAVE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS ACROSS CWA ATTM.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGHINESS...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. DIFFERENCES
BECOME APPARENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE IN THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
TIMING AND TRACK ARE DIFFERENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TROUGHINESS DURING THE MIDDLE
WEEK AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH SLGT CHC
POPS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL TAFTN-EVE. WDLY SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS ON ANY BUT KCHO TAF LOCATIONS.
HWVR...AREAL CVRG IN DOUBT...AND MAY RMV VCSH FM 18Z PKG. NW WINDS
PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AND REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH TROUGHINESS OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE SLGT/CHC THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WLY WNDS ARND 10 KT ATTM...THO TPLM2 EXHIBITING HIER GUSTS. AM
HAVING DOUBTS AS TO THE POTL OF AFTN MIXING. 06Z NAM12 AND LTST
WRF-ARW4 BOTH SUGGEST WNDS WL STAY UNDER. HWVR...ITS TOO CLSOE OF
A CALL ATTM...SO WL KEEP HEADLINE UP FOR NOW.
WDLY SCT SHRA/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
LESSEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW.
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EACH OF THOSE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. LESS WIND EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THE WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...HTS/SBK/PELOQUIN
MARINE...HTS/SBK/PELOQUIN
000
FXUS61 KRNK 021324
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
924 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL BE INCREASING WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED
SC ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY SE WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION MAY
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM AND
WRFARW-RNK STILL SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MTNS.
THEY MAY SPILL FURTHER EASTWARD...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. BECAUSE
THE WEST WIND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD HINDER CONVECTION.
THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS FROM LOWER 70S WITH LOW CLOUDS TO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S WITH FULL SUN. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES UPPER LOW INTO NRN OH. MODELS BRING THIS WAVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPLNS TODAY. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY/S SHORT WAVE...AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA DOES
NOT BACK MUCH AHEAD OF IT. WITH MORE OF A PURELY WEST WIND...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE IN THE MTNS...AND MAINLY
WESTERN SLOPES. I HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE
MTNS TODAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME COLD ADVECTION TODAY BEHIND A SHORT
WAVE EXITING THE MID ATL COAST. THE 00Z UA PLOT SHOWED 850 MB
TEMPS 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. I HAVE KEPT HIGH ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE- ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS WHERE THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF CLOUDS.
THIS LAST SHORT WAVE MOVG THRU THE CENTRAL APPLNS WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA TONIGHT...SO I ONLY HAVE LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL- IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOW MOVING GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST AND NORTH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND WE WILL START TO SEE
TEMPERATURES INCH UP A LITTLE. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE TEXAS UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE DEEP
SOUTH. TWO THINGS WILL HAPPEN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WE WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A MID-WEST MCS TO RIDE ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO
OUR AREA.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES HEADING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHAT
DOES HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL TO MODEL IS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH...THUS RESULTING IN THE TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES SLOWLY SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE TRIED TO
DEPICT THIS IN THE POP/WX GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN TROUGH RELAXES A BIT AS UPPER HIGH MOVES TO THE GULF COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WAA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AN
END TO THE DIURNAL SHWS/STORMS GENERATED UNDER STRONG JULY SUNSHINE
AND CHILLY MID LEVELS. WITH HIGH CLDS HOLDING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE MORNING OF THE 4TH
SHOULD BE COOL AND COMFORTABLE. LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL SEND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TN VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A FEW MCS WILL BE GENERATED ALONG THIS
PATH...AND THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY TURN THESE SYSTEMS MAKE AS THEY NEAR SE WEST
VA/SW VA/NW NC. WITH WNW WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING OVER THE APPLN MTNS. BETTER THICKNESS
DIVERGENCE ARRIVES ALONG WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO THIS MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR SOMETHING TO
ARRIVE. STILL THOUGH...BEST CHC SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BLF/MKJ/MWK LINE.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE SUITE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE
STRONG VORTEX OFF THE OP GFS SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE RESULTING
FASTER...DEEPER H5 FLOW FROM THAT MODEL MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIP WHICH HANGS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AND SEEMS TO BE MORE STABLE IN REGARDS TO NEXT
WEEK`S SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ON MONDAY FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY IN THE MTNS. BLF AND
LWB WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MTNS AS WELL- WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COUPLE
OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THESE
WAVES SHOULD PASS THRU THE CENTRAL APPLNS LATER TODAY...AND WILL
TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS...POSS ISOLD TSTMS...IN THE MTNS. BLF AND LWB
HAVE THE BEST CHC TO SEE SHOWERS TODAY...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR PROVIDING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TSRA COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ/KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JJ
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021256
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
856 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/W ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN HOWEVER. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONTINUED
TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC POPS WELL N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER
DPVA AND CONVERGENCE VALUES...AND ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. WEAK 1000-850 MB CAA WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS VS THOSE ATTAINED YDAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA
IN THE MID-UPR 80S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR
90S ELSEWHERE (COOLEST OVER PIEDMONT REGION...WARMEST SE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY FCST
CHALLENGE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
ON FRIDAY...UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP
LAYER NWLY FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION. TEMPS DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850
MB THERMAL TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW
EXITS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS MVG OFFSHORE AND WILL LEAD TO SCT/SKC VFR DECK
TO SCOUR OUT AS THE AM PROGRESSES. AFTN/LATE DAY VFR CU FIELD
WILL LIKELY DVLP AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP OVER THE NRN
NECK INTO THE ERN SHORE. WINDS GRNLY OUT OF THE W TDY AND NW TNT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM THRU FRI. NEXT FRTNL BOUNDARY PUSH
OVER THE WATERS EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. FRNTL BNDRY STALLS
OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH/JYM
SHORT TERM...BKH/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...CCW
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KRNK 021133
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
733 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL BE INCREASING WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES UPPER LOW INTO NRN OH. MODELS BRING THIS WAVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPLNS TODAY. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY/S SHORT WAVE...AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA DOES
NOT BACK MUCH AHEAD OF IT. WITH MORE OF A PURELY WEST WIND...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE IN THE MTNS...AND MAINLY
WESTERN SLOPES. I HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE
MTNS TODAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME COLD ADVECTION TODAY BEHIND A SHORT
WAVE EXITING THE MID ATL COAST. THE 00Z UA PLOT SHOWED 850 MB
TEMPS 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. I HAVE KEPT HIGH ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE- ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS WHERE THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF CLOUDS.
THIS LAST SHORT WAVE MOVG THRU THE CENTRAL APPLNS WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA TONIGHT...SO I ONLY HAVE LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL- IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOW MOVING GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST AND NORTH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND WE WILL START TO SEE
TEMPERATURES INCH UP A LITTLE. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE TEXAS UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE DEEP
SOUTH. TWO THINGS WILL HAPPEN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WE WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A MID-WEST MCS TO RIDE ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO
OUR AREA.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES HEADING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHAT
DOES HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL TO MODEL IS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH...THUS RESULTING IN THE TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES SLOWLY SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE TRIED TO
DEPICT THIS IN THE POP/WX GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN TROUGH RELAXES A BIT AS UPPER HIGH MOVES TO THE GULF COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WAA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AN
END TO THE DIURNAL SHWS/STORMS GENERATED UNDER STRONG JULY SUNSHINE
AND CHILLY MID LEVELS. WITH HIGH CLDS HOLDING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE MORNING OF THE 4TH
SHOULD BE COOL AND COMFORTABLE. LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL SEND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TN VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A FEW MCS WILL BE GENERATED ALONG THIS
PATH...AND THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY TURN THESE SYSTEMS MAKE AS THEY NEAR SE WEST
VA/SW VA/NW NC. WITH WNW WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING OVER THE APPLN MTNS. BETTER THICKNESS
DIVERGENCE ARRIVES ALONG WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO THIS MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR SOMETHING TO
ARRIVE. STILL THOUGH...BEST CHC SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BLF/MKJ/MWK LINE.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE SUITE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE
STRONG VORTEX OFF THE OP GFS SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE RESULTING
FASTER...DEEPER H5 FLOW FROM THAT MODEL MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIP WHICH HANGS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AND SEEMS TO BE MORE STABLE IN REGARDS TO NEXT
WEEK`S SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ON MONDAY FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY IN THE MTNS. BLF AND
LWB WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MTNS AS WELL- WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COUPLE
OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THESE
WAVES SHOULD PASS THRU THE CENTRAL APPLNS LATER TODAY...AND WILL
TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS...POSS ISOLD TSTMS...IN THE MTNS. BLF AND LWB
HAVE THE BEST CHC TO SEE SHOWERS TODAY...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR PROVIDING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TSRA COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JJ
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020833 CCA
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
VORT LOBE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BLOSSOMING CONVECTION LAST
EVENING IS NOW EXITING OFF THE COAST PER STLT WV/IR LOOPS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WEAKENING/DEPARTING ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY FCST
CHALLENGE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
TODAY...
SIMILAR WX STORY TODAY...WITH S/W ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPR
LOW...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT
A BIT FARTHER NORTH. AS SUCH...CONTINUED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC
POPS WELL N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER DPVA AND CONVERGENCE
VALUES...AND ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE. WEAK 1000-850 MB CAA WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
VS THOSE ATTAINED YDAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA IN THE MID-UPR 80S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR 90S ELSEWHERE
(COOLEST OVER PIEDMONT REGION...WARMEST SE).
FRIDAY...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER NWLY
FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
INDEPENDENCE DAY (SAT)...
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW EXITS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND ISOL TSTMS MVG OFFSHORE AND WILL LEAD TO SCT/SKC VFR DECK
TO SCOUR OUT AS THE AM PROGRESSES. TWRDS SUNRISE...LOOK FOR SHALLOW
FOG TO DVLP OVER THE ERN SHORE AND VCNTY OF METRO RICHMOND.
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBYS FOR A TIME AT SBY BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING AT
DAYBREAK. AFTN/LATE DAY VFR CU FIELD WILL LIKELY DVLP AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP OVER THE NRN NECK INTO THE ERN SHORE. WINDS
GRNLY OUT OF THE W TDY AND NW TNT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM THRU FRI. NEXT FRTNL BOUNDARY PUSH
OVER THE WATERS EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. FRNTL BNDRY STALLS
OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH
WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVING ALONG IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES
1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...CCW
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020831
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
VORT LOBE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BLOSSOMING CONVECTION LAST
EVENING IS NOW EXITING OFF THE COAST PER STLT WV/IR LOOPS. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGH EARLY THIS AM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WEAKENING/DEPARTING ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRIMARY FCST
CHALLENGE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DIAGNOSING RAIN CHCS.
TODAY...
SIMILAR WX STORY TODAY...WITH S/W ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPR
LOW...THOUGH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL SHUNT GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTN. AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT
A BIT FARTHER NORTH. AS SUCH...CONTINUED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHC
POPS WELL N OF I-64...COINCIDENT TO BETTER DPVA AND CONVERGENCE
VALUES...AND ALSO WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE. WEAK 1000-850 MB CAA WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
VS THOSE ATTAINED YDAY. LOOKING FOR MAXIMA IN THE MID-UPR 80S
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE...WITH MID 80S TO LWR 90S ELSEWHERE
(COOLEST OVER PIEDMONT REGION...WARMEST SE).
FRIDAY...
UPR TROF FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT EASTWARD WITH DEEP LAYER NWLY
FLOW MARKING MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE RESULT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
CWA DRY ON FRIDAY WITHOUT ANY REAL TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. TEMPS
DURING THE DAY A LITTLE COOLER YET WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION...I.E. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
INDEPENDENCE DAY (SAT)...
UPR PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...BECOMING A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AS UPR LOW EXITS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
ADVANCING MOISTURE/CONVECTION FROM THE MO/TN VLYS EASTWARD THAN
THE ECMWF. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SW. CONSIDERING THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON AT LEAST A RELATIVELY
WEAK DYNAMIC PROFILE...WL KEEP POPS AT SILENT OR LESS FOR NOW.
HIGHS ON THE 4TH SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND/JUST ABV CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS: UPR80S/L90S INLAND...WITH M/U80S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE ECMWF SOLN
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES FOR THE 4TH MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY A WNW FLO ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. ONE FRNT
SLIDES OFF THE CST SAT NGT INTO SUN MORNG...WITH WEAK HI PRES BLDNG
OVR THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN. LATE SUN THRU MON NGT...A
FRNTL BNDRY WILL LAY TO OUR S ACRS THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK AREAS
OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG IT AND OFF THE CST. WILL HAVE SLGT TO SML CHCS
FOR PCPN...ESPLY SUN NGT THRU MON. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE
NNW FOR TUE THRU WED.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 THRU THE PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SCT TS ACRS CTRL VA WILL IMPACT NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVNG BEFORE DIMINISHING. SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND SHIFT WINDS TO WRLY EARLY THU MORNING. VFR EXP OUTSIDE
OF PCPN TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE SUN NIGHT AND MON. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AT SBY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHRT TERM TNGT THRU FRI. ONE TROF OR WEAK COLD
FRNT WILL SWING ACRS THE AREA LATE TNGT THRU THU MORNG...WITH A
SECOND ONE EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. THAT FRNTL BNDRY WILL
REMAIN S OF THE WTRS ON MON...WITH WEAK WAVES OF LO PRES MOVNG ALNG
IT. CONDS SHUD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH
WND SPEEDS 15 KTS OR LESS...WAVES 1 TO 2 FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BKH
NEAR TERM...BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...CCW
MARINE...CCW
000
FXUS61 KLWX 020740
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY...THEN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE COULD AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINNING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS IMPULSE WILL REVOLVE AROUND NEARLY STATIONARY PARENT
UPPER LOW...AND PUSH NEWARD THROUGH PA DURING THE AFTN. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER MORE
NORTHWESTERLY..SETTING UP DOWNSLOPING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
ACT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER. PATCHY FOG WILL
QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT SOLAR
HEATING. THUS...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE DESTABILIZED
ENOUGH...COMBINED WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO ONCE AGAIN INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA. WITH TODAYS VORT MAX WEAKER AND TRACKING FURTHER TO THE NORTH...PRECIP
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS LESS OF A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AS LEE TROF DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BEST POPS
WILL BE OVER THE NE CWA...WHICH WILL HAVE THE MOST MOISTURE AND
TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION. WITH MODERATE WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY SUMMER RADIATION...THICKNESSES SUPPORT
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE FROM GUIDANCE...AS DOWNSLOPING AND AMPLE SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMA IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WEST OF BLUE RIDGE
STUCK CLOSE TO MAV/MET BLEND...WITH MOST AREAS NOT REACHING 80 FOR
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH AND/OR PUSH NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. STRONG
CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S MOST
AREAS...AND TRENDED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMA.
WITH MID/UPPER MOISTURE STILL STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING ON WESTERN SLOPES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL STILL
WARRANT CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...DRY DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS GENERALLY RAIN-FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER TROUGHINESS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PREVENT A DRY FORECAST
UNTIL THEN AS DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND ITS BASE ALTHOUGH
ANY CONVECTION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAVE A DIURNAL BIAS. HAVE
ORIENTED HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOWER /SLGT CHC/ POPS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST. HAVE ALLOWED FOR CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA CLOSEST TO
AN UPPER JET. DESPITE THIS...WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGHINESS IN PLACE
HAVE MAINTAINED SIMILAR POPS ACROSS CWA ATTM.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGHINESS...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES. DIFFERENCES
BECOME APPARENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE IN THE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
TIMING AND TRACK ARE DIFFERENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TROUGHINESS DURING THE MIDDLE
WEEK AS WELL. HAVE CONTINUED CHC POPS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH SLGT CHC
POPS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR VIS/CIG ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY FOG WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. THEN VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
BRIEF IMPACTS ON ANY BUT KCHO TAF LOCATIONS. NW WINDS PICK UP TO 10
TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND REMAIN LOW
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
WITH TROUGHINESS OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE SLGT/CHC THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTN MIXING DOWN OF ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO PERIODICALLY GUST ABOVE 20 KTS...THEREFORE SCA IN EFFECT.
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
LESSEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW.
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EACH OF THOSE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. LESS WIND EXPECTED SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY MOVE OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THE WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...SBK/BPP
MARINE...SBK/BPP
000
FXUS61 KRNK 020712
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
312 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL BE INCREASING WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES UPPER LOW INTO NRN OH. MODELS BRING THIS WAVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPLNS TODAY. THIS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY/S SHORT WAVE...AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA DOES
NOT BACK MUCH AHEAD OF IT. WITH MORE OF A PURELY WEST WIND...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE IN THE MTNS...AND MAINLY
WESTERN SLOPES. I HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE
MTNS TODAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME COLD ADVECTION TODAY BEHIND A SHORT
WAVE EXITING THE MID ATL COAST. THE 00Z UA PLOT SHOWED 850 MB
TEMPS 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. I HAVE KEPT HIGH ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE- ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS WHERE THERE WILL BE
A LOT OF CLOUDS.
THIS LAST SHORT WAVE MOVG THRU THE CENTRAL APPLNS WILL BE EXITING
THE AREA TONIGHT...SO I ONLY HAVE LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE AREAS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL- IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOW MOVING GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST AND NORTH THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND WE WILL START TO SEE
TEMPERATURES INCH UP A LITTLE. BY SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION
AND THE TEXAS UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE DEEP
SOUTH. TWO THINGS WILL HAPPEN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WE WILL HAVE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR A MID-WEST MCS TO RIDE ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO
OUR AREA.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE TIMING OF
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES HEADING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHAT
DOES HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL TO MODEL IS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER SOUTH...THUS RESULTING IN THE TRACK FOR
ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES SLOWLY SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE TRIED TO
DEPICT THIS IN THE POP/WX GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN TROUGH RELAXES A BIT AS UPPER HIGH MOVES TO THE GULF COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WAA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AN
END TO THE DIURNAL SHWS/STORMS GENERATED UNDER STRONG JULY SUNSHINE
AND CHILLY MID LEVELS. WITH HIGH CLDS HOLDING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE MORNING OF THE 4TH
SHOULD BE COOL AND COMFORTABLE. LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL SEND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TN VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A FEW MCS WILL BE GENERATED ALONG THIS
PATH...AND THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY TURN THESE SYSTEMS MAKE AS THEY NEAR SE WEST
VA/SW VA/NW NC. WITH WNW WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING OVER THE APPLN MTNS. BETTER THICKNESS
DIVERGENCE ARRIVES ALONG WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO THIS MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR SOMETHING TO
ARRIVE. STILL THOUGH...BEST CHC SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BLF/MKJ/MWK LINE.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE SUITE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE
STRONG VORTEX OFF THE OP GFS SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE RESULTING
FASTER...DEEPER H5 FLOW FROM THAT MODEL MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIP WHICH HANGS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AND SEEMS TO BE MORE STABLE IN REGARDS TO NEXT
WEEK`S SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ON MONDAY FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE DELMARVA...AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS DRYING AND LIKELY SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND UPSLOPE WEST FLOW MAY
BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO BLF AND LWB OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY AFT/EVE MAY SEE SOME FOG. LYH HA SHAD SOME
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY...BUT I EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBY THERE AS WEST
WINDS INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS ONE LAST STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MICH AND INTO NRN OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL PASS THRU THE
CENTRAL APPLNS TODAY...AND WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS...POSS ISOLD
TSTMS...IN THE MTNS. BLF AND LWB HAVE THE BEST CHC TO SEE SHOWERS
TODAY...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR PROVIDING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TSRA COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJ
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/JJ
000
FXUS61 KRNK 020540
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SPIRAL THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST. BY THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING WARMER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORT WAVE WAS OVER MARYLAND AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
AXIS OF THE TROF WERE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 03Z. LOW CLOUDS
EXTEND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS STILL OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING CLOSE TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES...HAVE RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED-SCT
SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NWRN CWA AS
PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW. FOR POPS WENT WITH A BLEND
OF CONTINUITY...ECMWF AND GFS. FELT THAT THE NAM WAS TOO ROBUST WITH
LIFT AND QPF EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LEANED TOWARDS WARMER GUID CONTINUITY AND NAM FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EASTERN TROUGH RELAXES A BIT AS UPPER HIGH MOVES TO THE GULF COAST
THIS WEEKEND. WAA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AN
END TO THE DIURNAL SHWS/STORMS GENERATED UNDER STRONG JULY SUNSHINE
AND CHILLY MID LEVELS. WITH HIGH CLDS HOLDING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE MORNING OF THE 4TH
SHOULD BE COOL AND COMFORTABLE. LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE UPPER FLOW
WILL SEND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TN VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A FEW MCS WILL BE GENERATED ALONG THIS
PATH...AND THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW
MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY TURN THESE SYSTEMS MAKE AS THEY NEAR SE WEST
VA/SW VA/NW NC. WITH WNW WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY...MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING OVER THE APPLN MTNS. BETTER THICKNESS
DIVERGENCE ARRIVES ALONG WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SO THIS MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR SOMETHING TO
ARRIVE. STILL THOUGH...BEST CHC SEEMS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BLF/MKJ/MWK LINE.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE SUITE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE
STRONG VORTEX OFF THE OP GFS SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. THE RESULTING
FASTER...DEEPER H5 FLOW FROM THAT MODEL MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIP WHICH HANGS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AND SEEMS TO BE MORE STABLE IN REGARDS TO NEXT
WEEK`S SOLUTION...SO KEPT A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ON MONDAY FOR
THE TIME BEING. IN FACT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE DELMARVA...AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWS DRYING AND LIKELY SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND UPSLOPE WEST FLOW MAY
BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO BLF AND LWB OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS
THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY AFT/EVE MAY SEE SOME FOG. LYH HA SHAD SOME
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY...BUT I EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VSBY THERE AS WEST
WINDS INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS ONE LAST STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MICH AND INTO NRN OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL PASS THRU THE
CENTRAL APPLNS TODAY...AND WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS...POSS ISOLD
TSTMS...IN THE MTNS. BLF AND LWB HAVE THE BEST CHC TO SEE SHOWERS
TODAY...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR PROVIDING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TSRA COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
TO THE WEST MAY BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SCTD STORMS AND
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KK/WP
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/JJ
| 
