000
FXUS61 KBTV 032014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND END BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW CONTINUES TO
VERY SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE LOW
CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND WEAKEN FOLLOWING SUNSET. BY
MIDNIGHT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED BEFORE ENDING.
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POPPING UP MORE AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING HAS LIMITED THE INSTABILITY AND ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHERE SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE REGION IN GENERAL NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY. VORT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE LIKELY SHOWERS MAINLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DROPPING TO CHANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...VERY LITTLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PROBABLY BE DIURNALLY AND/OR TERRAIN DRIVEN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. BUT...WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERALL CAA ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70. THESE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY GUSTY WITH INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REALLY PICKS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE DRY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SNEAK INTO THE MID 70S AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THESE
TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS A
WELCOME RELIEF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT FRIDAY...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWER...MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SINCE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING... WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON THESE DAYS. GMOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE MOS AND WARMER GFS EXTENDED MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS 850 MB
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS ON THURSDAY...AND TO AROUND
17-18 CELSIUS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR/MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z-06Z ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK
AND KMPV...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AFT 14Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH
LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 032004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY
MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY
BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE... BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS. HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS
ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WELL ON
AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY
BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND END BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW CONTINUES TO
VERY SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE LOW
CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND WEAKEN FOLLOWING SUNSET. BY
MIDNIGHT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED BEFORE ENDING.
A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POPPING UP MORE AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BTV CWA THIS
MORNING HAS LIMITED THE INSTABILITY AND ALL STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHERE SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PLACING THE REGION IN GENERAL NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY. VORT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE LIKELY SHOWERS MAINLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH POPS DROPPING TO CHANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...VERY LITTLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT OVER THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PROBABLY BE DIURNALLY AND/OR TERRAIN DRIVEN. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. BUT...WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND OVERALL CAA ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS
LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70. THESE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY GUSTY WITH INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT REALLY PICKS UP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE DRY FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL SNEAK INTO THE MID 70S AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THESE
TEMPS ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS A
WELCOME RELIEF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LOW WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER
OF UPPER LOW. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR/MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z-06Z ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK
AND KMPV...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AFT 14Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH
LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031826
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
226 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF
JULY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE
NOTED...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE AND THE OTHER OVER
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST...DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE AREA DESPITE SOME COOLING ALOFT...SO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
ANY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WELL EAST OF THE AREA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SMALL. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED...WITH NORTHERN NEW YORK SEEING THE BEST CHANCE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO STABILIZE...AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND WITH LOSS OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THUS
AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AND THE
FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AREA FINALLY GETS INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN. DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. UPPER LOW
WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER OF UPPER LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR/MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z-06Z ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK
AND KMPV...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK...AFT 14Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH
LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 031735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.  MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE...
BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS.  HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP
FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME.  CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WELL ON AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...JPV/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 031728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD MITIGATE ABOVE FACTORS AND STILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.  MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE...
BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS.  HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP
FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME.  CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WELL ON AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF
JULY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE
NOTED...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE AND THE OTHER OVER
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST...DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE AREA DESPITE SOME COOLING ALOFT...SO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
ANY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WELL EAST OF THE AREA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SMALL. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED...WITH NORTHERN NEW YORK SEEING THE BEST CHANCE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND ATMOSPHERE
BEGINS TO STABILIZE...AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND WITH LOSS OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THUS
AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AND THE
FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AREA FINALLY GETS INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN. DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. UPPER LOW
WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER OF UPPER LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR COND THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ SCT
-RW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTNOON(VSBY 4-6SM). CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM
VFR(BKN035-045) DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES...W/ BLW OVC010
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR MSS/RUT/MPV THIS MORNING. WINDS
LGT/VAR...BECM SSW 5-10KTS THRU 00Z SAT...THEN LGT/VAR AGAIN. HIR
TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR...BUT LOWERING TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRF IFR EACH DAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN

000
FXUS61 KALY 031415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD MITIGATE ABOVE FACTORS AND STILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS SOME SUNSHINE GETS THROUGH...CUMULUS
WILL BEGIN BUILDING AND BY NOONTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE THUNDER
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO FORM STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...JPV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF
JULY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE NOTED...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE AND THE
OTHER OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST...DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE AREA DESPITE SOME COOLING ALOFT...SO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
ANY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WELL EAST OF THE AREA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SMALL. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED...WITH NORTHERN NEW YORK SEEING THE BEST CHANCE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
STABILIZE...AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND WITH LOSS OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THUS
AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AND THE
FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AREA FINALLY GETS INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN. DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. UPPER LOW
WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER OF UPPER LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR COND THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ SCT
-RW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTNOON(VSBY 4-6SM). CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM
VFR(BKN035-045) DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES...W/ BLW OVC010
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR MSS/RUT/MPV THIS MORNING. WINDS
LGT/VAR...BECM SSW 5-10KTS THRU 00Z SAT...THEN LGT/VAR AGAIN. HIR
TRRN OBSCD AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR...BUT LOWERING TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRF IFR EACH DAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN

000
FXUS61 KALY 031054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS SOME SUNSHINE GETS THROUGH...CUMULUS
WILL BEGIN BUILDING AND BY NOONTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE THUNDER
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO FORM STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 030908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CEILINGS AT KGFL
DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITY AT KALB DURING
THE LATE EVENING. A BROKEN DECK OF LOW AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TO GET THROUGH...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CUMULUS WILL
START BUILDING INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
BY AROUND NOON WHICH WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE
TSTMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM STARTING
LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 030851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
IT LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL
ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS
ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE HUDSON...MOHAWK...AND
HOUSATONIC RIVER VALLEYS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY SOMEWHAT
WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR
IN MANY LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KGFL AND KPOU TAF SITES WHICH
ARE SHELTERED FROM WINDS AND WHERE DRAINAGE FROM NEARBY HIGHER
TERRAIN OFTEN ENHANCES FOG FORMATION. AT KALB...THE COMBINATION
OF A MORE OPEN LOCATION AND THE AIRPORT ABOVE THE NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY IS LIKELY TO FAVOR LIGHT MVFR FOG ALTHOUGH SOME INTERVALS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. VSBY
AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE MORNING. STARTING AROUND
NOONTIME...CUMULUS WILL BUILD INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WHICH WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE TSTMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR.  FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN DIMINISH
TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL FINALLY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND ON THE FOURTH OF
JULY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WERE NOTED...ONE OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE AND THE
OTHER OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST...DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE AREA DESPITE SOME COOLING ALOFT...SO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
ANY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WELL EAST OF THE AREA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SMALL. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED...WITH NORTHERN NEW YORK SEEING THE BEST CHANCE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
STABILIZE...AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AND WITH LOSS OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THUS
AREAL COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AND THE
FOURTH OF JULY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AREA FINALLY GETS INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN. DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY WITH SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EDT FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. UPPER LOW
WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER OF UPPER LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR COND THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ SCT
-RW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTNOON(VSBY 4-6SM). CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM VFR
DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES...W/ BLW OVC010 POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR
MSS/RUT/MPV BFR 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS LGT/VAR THRU 12Z...BECM
SSW 5-10KTS THRU 00Z SAT...THEN LGT/VAR AGAIN. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR...BUT LOWERING TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRF IFR EACH DAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN

000
FXUS61 KALY 030551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930PM...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
EXITING OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE LAPS AND SPC-MESO ANALYSIS HAS
THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SHOWING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND OUR LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE
FORCING OBSERVED IN THE LATEST RUC13...WE WILL DROP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT 10 PM EDT. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF FOG ONCE AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET AND NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ONE MORE
SHORT WAVE TROF TO DEAL WITH...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGESTING BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SBCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED. WHILE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOWER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAK
OF SUN. GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE DRIER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS FOLLOWED. WHILE IT WILL BE
DRIER...IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70 NEAR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...WITH A BIT
OF A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BUT IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL APPRECIABLY WARMER DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS OF A BREEZE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIOD TO START OUT DRY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS DIFFER ON A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER FEATURE ALOFT THAN
THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS SHOWING MEAGER QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUE POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THUR...AS YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SETTLES IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. STILL 5-7 DAYS AWAY...BUT WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY FROM TUE THROUGH THUR. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS BEST DAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE WED...SO WILL MENTION THUNDER. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE HUDSON...MOHAWK...AND
HOUSATONIC RIVER VALLEYS...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY SOMEWHAT
WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR
IN MANY LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE KGFL AND KPOU TAF SITES WHICH
ARE SHELTERED FROM WINDS AND WHERE DRAINAGE FROM NEARBY HIGHER
TERRAIN OFTEN ENHANCES FOG FORMATION. AT KALB...THE COMBINATION
OF A MORE OPEN LOCATION AND THE AIRPORT ABOVE THE NEARBY RIVER
VALLEY IS LIKELY TO FAVOR LIGHT MVFR FOG ALTHOUGH SOME INTERVALS
OF IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. VISBY
AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE MORNING. STARTING AROUND
NOONTIME...CUMULUS WILL BUILD INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WHICH WILL OCCUR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE TSTMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR.  FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE CALM...OR NEARLY SO...IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN DIMINISH
TONIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS
WELL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES
WILL RISE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP TO 45
TO 60 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 PM...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED AT 10 PM EDT.

THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OCCURRED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...BUT THESE STORMS WERE PROGRESSIVE /NO TRAINING ECHOES/
RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SMALL URBAN ISSUES.

MAIN STEM RIVERS WERE NOT AFFECTED AS MUCH SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN
FELL OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE NORMANS KILL SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...DID JUMP SEVERAL
FEET TO NEAR BANKFULL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE HAD THE CHANCE TO RECEDE SOME. ACROSS
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...SOME RIVER LEVELS DID JUMP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE NOTABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC AND
HOOSIC RIVERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
SINCE THE STORMS WILL MOVE IN A MORE WEST TO EAST DIRECTION AND
THUS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TRAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RCK/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030536
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THESE PERIODS...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 958 PM EDT THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE. HEAVY PCPN NEVER MATERIALIZED ACRS MOST OF
FORECAST AREA TODAY OR THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WERE MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF ST LWR AND FRANKLIN CTYS IN NY WITH
LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WERE MUCH LESS.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS...EXPECT WEAK SFC LOW AND
ASSOCD OCCLUDED FRONT TO LIFT NEWRD ACRS FA...RESULTING IN SHWRS
AND PATCHY FOG. HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN NY DUE PROXIMITY OF
UPPER/SFC LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK VORT. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY MAJOR HYDRO CONCERNS...THUS FLOOD
WATCH DROPPED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN TO THEN CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS ATOP AND JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. INDEED...HIGHS ON THE 4TH LIKELY SOME 10-15 DEG
BELOW EARLY JULY NORMS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S ALL
AREAS UNDER CLOUDY/SHOWERY WX. DID OPT TO DOWNPLAY THREAT OF
THUNDER SIMILAR TO EARLIER FCSTS AS BNDRY LYR DESTABILIZATION
VERY MEAGER. ENOUGH RESIDUAL COOL POOL ALOFT THAT PERHAPS A FEW
CELLS COULD PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES IF ANY SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...BUT AGAIN THREAT MARGINAL.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND PULL
EAST...AS SKIES BECOME CLR/PC. QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP IF YOU
BELIEVE CURRENT GUIDANCE...WITH MANY AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
40S. THUS JACKETS LIKELY NEEDED FOR ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS IN THE
EVENING HOURS DESPITE IMPROVING WX CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LOW WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER
OF UPPER LOW. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR COND THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ SCT
-RW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTNOON(VSBY 4-6SM). CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM VFR
DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES...W/ BLW OVC010 POSSBLE...MAINLY FOR
MSS/RUT/MPV BFR 12Z THIS MORNING. WINDS LGT/VAR THRU 12Z...BECM
SSW 5-10KTS THRU 00Z SAT...THEN LGT/VAR AGAIN. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR...BUT LOWERING TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRF IFR EACH DAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/JN

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030211
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THESE PERIODS...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 958 PM EDT THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE. HEAVY PCPN NEVER MATERIALIZED ACRS MOST OF
FORECAST AREA TODAY OR THIS EVENING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WERE MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF ST LWR AND FRANKLIN CTYS IN NY WITH
LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WERE MUCH LESS.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS...EXPECT WEAK SFC LOW AND
ASSOCD OCCLUDED FRONT TO LIFT NEWRD ACRS FA...RESULTING IN SHWRS
AND PATCHY FOG. HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN NY DUE PROXIMITY OF
UPPER/SFC LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK VORT. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY MAJOR HYDRO CONCERNS...THUS FLOOD
WATCH DROPPED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN TO THEN CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS ATOP AND JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. INDEED...HIGHS ON THE 4TH LIKELY SOME 10-15 DEG
BELOW EARLY JULY NORMS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S ALL
AREAS UNDER CLOUDY/SHOWERY WX. DID OPT TO DOWNPLAY THREAT OF
THUNDER SIMILAR TO EARLIER FCSTS AS BNDRY LYR DESTABILIZATION
VERY MEAGER. ENOUGH RESIDUAL COOL POOL ALOFT THAT PERHAPS A FEW
CELLS COULD PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES IF ANY SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...BUT AGAIN THREAT MARGINAL.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND PULL
EAST...AS SKIES BECOME CLR/PC. QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP IF YOU
BELIEVE CURRENT GUIDANCE...WITH MANY AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
40S. THUS JACKETS LIKELY NEEDED FOR ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS IN THE
EVENING HOURS DESPITE IMPROVING WX CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LOW WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER
OF UPPER LOW. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCD OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
ACPYD BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
CIGS VFR/MVFR THIS EVENING LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVRNGHT WITH VSBYS
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND BR. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING FRIDAY MORNING WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
BTWN 12Z-15Z AS WINDS BECOME S-SW 5-10 KTS. UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR...BUT LOWERING TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRF IFR EACH DAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KCXX WSR-88D IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 030132
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930PM...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
EXITING OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE LAPS AND SPC-MESO ANALYSIS HAS
THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. WITH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SHOWING SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND OUR LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE
FORCING OBSERVED IN THE LATEST RUC13...WE WILL DROP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT 10 PM EDT. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF FOG ONCE AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET AND NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ONE MORE
SHORT WAVE TROF TO DEAL WITH...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGESTING BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SBCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED. WHILE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOWER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAK
OF SUN. GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE DRIER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS FOLLOWED. WHILE IT WILL BE
DRIER...IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70 NEAR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...WITH A BIT
OF A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BUT IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL APPRECIABLY WARMER DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS OF A BREEZE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIOD TO START OUT DRY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS DIFFER ON A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER FEATURE ALOFT THAN
THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS SHOWING MEAGER QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUE POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THUR...AS YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SETTLES IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. STILL 5-7 DAYS AWAY...BUT WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY FROM TUE THROUGH THUR. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS BEST DAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE WED...SO WILL MENTION THUNDER. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR TO IFR FROM KALB
NORTHWARD...MAINLY FOR CIGS...WHILE VFR AT KPOU. OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS MAY
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT KALB AND KGFL...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS
LIKELY WITHIN SHOWERS...AND CIGS HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO THE MVFR/VFR
RANGE...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MAINLY FOR CIGS.

AT KPOU...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH BEST CHC SHOULD REMAIN JUST N OF
KPOU. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR...MAINLY FOR
VSBY...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP LATE.

AT ALL LOCALES...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING.
THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/HAIL...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED...BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBY/CIG INTO IFR RANGE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY NE TO N...THEN W AT
KGFL AND KALB...WHILE KPOU WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW INTO THE W/NW
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KT. FOR
FRI...WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY W TO NW...AND INCREASE TO 10-20
KT...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS
WELL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES
WILL RISE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP TO 45
TO 60 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 930 PM...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED AT 10 PM EDT.

THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OCCURRED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT...BUT THESE STORMS WERE PROGRESSIVE /NO TRAINING ECHOES/
RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SMALL URBAN ISSUES.

MAIN STEM RIVERS WERE NOT AFFECTED AS MUCH SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN
FELL OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE NORMANS KILL SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...DID JUMP SEVERAL
FEET TO NEAR BANKFULL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE HAD THE CHANCE TO RECEDE SOME. ACROSS
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...SOME RIVER LEVELS DID JUMP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE NOTABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC AND
HOOSIC RIVERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
SINCE THE STORMS WILL MOVE IN A MORE WEST TO EAST DIRECTION AND
THUS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TRAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RCK/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030017
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
817 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THESE PERIODS...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...WET EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN STORE
FOR MANY AREAS AS UPPER FORCING FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE NOW
ENTERING WRN PA RIDES NORTHEAST. DIFFERING DYNAMICAL/QPF SOLNS
OFFERED BY VARIOUS MODELS...BUT FEEL NAM/UKMET HAVE BETTER
INITIALIZATION W/UPPER FEATURES. GIVEN AMPLE COLUMNAR MOISTURE
PROFILES AND AT LEAST SOME BNDRY LYR DESTABILIZATION TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL CURRENT SHOWERY REGIME WILL BE
REPLACED BY MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIDING
NORTH FROM CENTRAL/SRN NEW YORK LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND
MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE LVL ABOUT
AVG ON SEEING ANY FLOODING...MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL CHARACTER
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TAKEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS
ANTECEDENT WET CONDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL
ALLOW ELEVATED RUNOFF CONCERNS SHOULD ANY HEAVIER PCPN CORES
DEVELOP LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING (SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).
OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN VERY SIMILAR TO VALUES OVER THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 62 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN TO THEN CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS ATOP AND JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. INDEED...HIGHS ON THE 4TH LIKELY SOME 10-15 DEG
BELOW EARLY JULY NORMS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S ALL
AREAS UNDER CLOUDY/SHOWERY WX. DID OPT TO DOWNPLAY THREAT OF
THUNDER SIMILAR TO EARLIER FCSTS AS BNDRY LYR DESTABILIZATION
VERY MEAGER. ENOUGH RESIDUAL COOL POOL ALOFT THAT PERHAPS A FEW
CELLS COULD PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES IF ANY SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...BUT AGAIN THREAT MARGINAL.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND PULL
EAST...AS SKIES BECOME CLR/PC. QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP IF YOU
BELIEVE CURRENT GUIDANCE...WITH MANY AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
40S. THUS JACKETS LIKELY NEEDED FOR ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS IN THE
EVENING HOURS DESPITE IMPROVING WX CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LOW WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER
OF UPPER LOW. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCD OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACRS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
ACPYD BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
CIGS VFR/MVFR THIS EVENING LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVRNGHT WITH VSBYS
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND BR. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING FRIDAY MORNING WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
BTWN 12Z-15Z AS WINDS BECOME S-SW 5-10 KTS. UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS VFR...BUT LOWERING TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRF IFR EACH DAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AREAL
COVERAGE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING MORE THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS...
THOUGH W/ADDL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED...SMALLER SCALE BASIN LVL EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESP IN NRN NY WHERE BEST BNDRY LYR
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WHILE LOW TO MID LVL WIND PROFILES SHOULD
ALLOW AT LEAST SOME CELL MOVEMENT...LOW MBE VELOCITIES CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST TRAINING POTENTIAL...WHICH APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
N-S MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMNAR PWAT VALUES
FROM 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 3KM ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. THIS SUGGESTS
HEAVIER CELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. WITH
1-3 AND 6 HR HEADWATER FFG REMAINING QUITE LOW ACROSS OUR AREA
HYDRO CONDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KCXX REMAINS DOWN TODAY DUE TO FAILURE OF A MOTOR DRIVE.
REPLACEMENT PARTS ARE BEING SHIPPED AND ARE DUE TO ARRIVE TODAY.
HOWEVER THE TIME OF RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS UNKNOWN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 022334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
BE FROM FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LESS PRONOUNCED THAN
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A CONDITIONAL THREAT
SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS
INHIBITED INSTABILITY BUILD UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
SOUTH OF ALBANY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE CLOSE TO 1000-1200
J/KG...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/ RESIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND EASTERN PA/NJ...SO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREAS
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA ALTHOUGH IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED
STATE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL PRODUCTION WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH
THESE STORMS. THE SPECIAL 18Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY 350 J/KG
CAPE...WITH FAIRLY WEAK LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALMOST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUNDING MORE
INDICATIVE OF FLASH FLOODING THAN SEVERE CONVECTION.

THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOC WITH A SHORT WAVE TROF ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL
LINGER MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOWER
60S IN THE VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET
GROUND CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ONE MORE
SHORT WAVE TROF TO DEAL WITH...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGESTING BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SBCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED. WHILE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOWER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAK
OF SUN. GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE DRIER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS FOLLOWED. WHILE IT WILL BE
DRIER...IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70 NEAR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...WITH A BIT
OF A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BUT IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL APPRECIABLY WARMER DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS OF A BREEZE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIOD TO START OUT DRY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS DIFFER ON A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER FEATURE ALOFT THAN
THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS SHOWING MEAGER QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUE POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THUR...AS YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SETTLES IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. STILL 5-7 DAYS AWAY...BUT WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY FROM TUE THROUGH THUR. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS BEST DAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE WED...SO WILL MENTION THUNDER. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR TO IFR FROM KALB
NORTHWARD...MAINLY FOR CIGS...WHILE VFR AT KPOU. OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS MAY
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT KALB AND KGFL...WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS
LIKELY WITHIN SHOWERS...AND CIGS HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR.
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO THE MVFR/VFR
RANGE...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MAINLY FOR CIGS.

AT KPOU...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH BEST CHC SHOULD REMAIN JUST N OF
KPOU. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR...MAINLY FOR
VSBY...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP LATE.

AT ALL LOCALES...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING.
THEN...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS/HAIL...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED...BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBY/CIG INTO IFR RANGE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY NE TO N...THEN W AT
KGFL AND KALB...WHILE KPOU WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SW INTO THE W/NW
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 10 KT. FOR
FRI...WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY W TO NW...AND INCREASE TO 10-20
KT...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR/MVFR...SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG POSSIBLE.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS
WELL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES
WILL RISE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP TO 45
TO 60 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH HAS BEEN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY...
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS...ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WILL AGAIN TRAIN IN LINES RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
LIMITED AREAS. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD NEARLY SIX INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...WITH PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS WERE NOT AFFECTED AS MUCH SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN
FELL OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE NORMANS KILL SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...DID JUMP SEVERAL
FEET TO NEAR BANKFULL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE HAD THE CHANCE TO RECEDE SOME. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A MORE WEST TO EAST DIRECTION AND THUS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO TRAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/RCK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 021954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
BE FROM FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LESS PRONOUNCED THAN
YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A CONDITIONAL THREAT
SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THICK CLOUD COVER HAS
INHIBITED INSTABILITY BUILD UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
SOUTH OF ALBANY WITHIN THE LAST HOUR THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE CLOSE TO 1000-1200
J/KG...WHICH COULD RESULT IN STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. WILL KEEP ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/ RESIDES JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND EASTERN PA/NJ...SO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THESE AREAS
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA ALTHOUGH IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED
STATE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL PRODUCTION WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH
THESE STORMS. THE SPECIAL 18Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY 350 J/KG
CAPE...WITH FAIRLY WEAK LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ALMOST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUNDING MORE
INDICATIVE OF FLASH FLOODING THAN SEVERE CONVECTION.

THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AS FORCING ASSOC WITH A SHORT WAVE TROF ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL
LINGER MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOWER
60S IN THE VALLEYS. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET
GROUND CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ONE MORE
SHORT WAVE TROF TO DEAL WITH...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGESTING BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...SBCAPE VALUES COULD RISE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE THAT DEVELOPS...WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUN
EXPECTED. WHILE SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LOWER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAK
OF SUN. GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
QUEBEC. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH YET
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE 4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE DRIER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ONE IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WAS FOLLOWED. WHILE IT WILL BE
DRIER...IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER 70S AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70 NEAR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...WITH A BIT
OF A WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BUT IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL APPRECIABLY WARMER DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE
AND LESS OF A BREEZE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIOD TO START OUT DRY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BUT TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS DIFFER ON A FAST-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS ON MON...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER FEATURE ALOFT THAN
THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS SHOWING MEAGER QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUE POSSIBLY
LASTING THROUGH THUR...AS YET ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW SETTLES IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. STILL 5-7 DAYS AWAY...BUT WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY FROM TUE THROUGH THUR. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS BEST DAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE WED...SO WILL MENTION THUNDER. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLASH FLOODING
AGAIN NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MOSTLY MVFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF
OCCASIONAL VFR AT TIMES. INDICATIONS FROM SEVERAL METARS ARE
THAT IFR/LIFR WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WORKS ITS WAY IN PUSHING THE LOW OVERCAST
NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY SINCE ONCE SOME
SUNSHINE STARTS GETTING THROUGH IT WILL KICK OFF CONVECTION
WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS. AND ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES DOWN THIS
EVENING...SOME DIURNAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AND FOG WILL BEGIN
TO FORM LATER IN THE EVENING AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. AND IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PERSISTING SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK. EVENTUALLY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR...IF NOT VFR...BY MID MORNING. BUT AGAIN...LIKE TODAY...
ONCE SOME SUNSHINE MATERIALIZES...IT WILL KICK OFF SOME
CONVECTION.

WINDS TODAY AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
WEST FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AS
WELL.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO AROUND 55 TO 65 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND 65 TO 75 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES
WILL RISE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP TO 45
TO 60 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...THEN
SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH HAS BEEN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY...
DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS...ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WILL AGAIN TRAIN IN LINES RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
LIMITED AREAS. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD NEARLY SIX INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...WITH PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS WERE NOT AFFECTED AS MUCH SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN
FELL OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS...SUCH AS
THE NORMANS KILL SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...DID JUMP SEVERAL
FEET TO NEAR BANKFULL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT HAVE SINCE HAD THE CHANCE TO RECEDE SOME. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A MORE WEST TO EAST DIRECTION AND THUS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO TRAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 021804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...STILL PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 100 PM EDT VISIBLE SAT IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND NJ WHICH WERE
ROTATING EAST AND NORTH AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CUTOFF
LOW WHICH CONTINUES TO PESTER US. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN CATSKILLS NORTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE WAS A SECOND AREAS OF SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF VERMONT WHICH WAS MOVING
NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE HUDSON
VALLEY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. UPDATED THE SKY COVER TO
INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL LET SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH...WHICH IN TURN WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF SOME MORE CONVECTION. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES. THE
PREVIOUSLY FCST MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...BUT FEEL THEY WILL
HAPPEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE WE GET AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNSHINE. HAVE PULLED THE AREA OF ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL A BIT SOUTH IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...SO NOW THE THREAT OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FROM GREENE...COLUMBIA...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY SOUTH. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.

THE HYDRO PUMP CONTINUES TO BE PRIMED OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FORECAST FOR THE CONTINUE POTENTIAL OF
FLASH FLOODING. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE WITH THE 00Z
KALB SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUE OF 1.43".
THIS VALUE IS ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. WE ARE
EXPECTING PWATS BASED ON THE NAM/GFS TO BE IN THE 1.25-1.66" RANGE
TODAY. THE GFS HAS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE /1000-850 HPA/ AXIS
SHIFTING WEST OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CATSKILLS...WHILE THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW IT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H850 FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT
10-20 KTS FROM THE S/SE. WE ARE EXPECTING TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN AN HOUR.

THE NEBULOUS AREA IN THE FCST IS SEVERE WEATHER. IN LIGHT OF THE
CONTINUE THREAT WE ARE DOING AN 18Z SOUNDING. A SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH IN THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 750-1250 J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH WITH
BETTER SFC DEWPOINTS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO POSSIBLY U60S NEAR
KPOU. THE NAM SHOWS LESS SBCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH
LIFTED INDICES OF -1C TO -3C. THE DEEP BULK SHEAR /0-6 KM/ IN BOTH
MODELS CONTINUES TO BE 30-35 KTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES. A BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE IN A CLUSTER/LINE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE ARE AROUND
6C/KM...SO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS COULD OCCUR...IF ENOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TIED TO
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SFC WAVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND VT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE
HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE FOLLOWED HPC
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. THE LATEST ECMWF DOES HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE WRN ZONES INTO CNTRL NY...AS THE SFC WAVE IS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER CLOSED TROUGH TURNING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. IT WOULD HELP IF
THIS RAIN DID FALL WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER
YESTERDAYS DELUGE. NONETHELESS...WE ARE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 10Z/FRI TO COVER THE HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE PLACED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
CLEARING...AND RECENTLY WET GROUND.

FRIDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH THE CUTOFF
FINALLY OPENING AND MOVING A BIT OVER SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE DIURNAL
HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE COOLING CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM.
THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE AREA.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A RESIDUAL MOIST AXIS IS TRICKY AT TIMES...WITH
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH CUTOFFS. WE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION ON FRI.
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A SEE TEXT FOR NOW.

FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY REINFORCING THE CUTOFF
SLIDING DOWNSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS A POOL OF
VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. H850 TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA
MAY ONLY BE 6-9C FROM NW TO SE FOR JULY 4TH. THAT IS ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AT THAT LEVEL BY A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ! WE MAY ONLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID 60S TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD POOL AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. THEY WILL BE TIED TO THE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE WENT SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND
CHANCE VALUES NORTH AND WEST. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SIMMER DOWN BEFORE THE INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING SHOWS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE LOW AND STUBBORN H5 TROF FINALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH
WEAK...WILL CREST OVER FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. THE NET RESULT LOOKS
TO FINALLY BE SOME DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF H5 TROF AXIS AS WELL AS SFC
LOW TRACK BTWN GFS AND ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH GIVE FA SOME QPF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FASTER TO MOVE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVING OFF EAST COAST. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO MOSTLY MVFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF
OCCASIONAL VFR AT TIMES. INDICATIONS FROM SEVERAL METARS ARE
THAT IFR/LIFR WILL PREDOMINATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WORKS ITS WAY IN PUSHING THE LOW OVERCAST
NORTHWARD...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY SINCE ONCE SOME
SUNSHINE STARTS GETTING THROUGH IT WILL KICK OFF CONVECTION
WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS. AND ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES DOWN THIS
EVENING...SOME DIURNAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AND FOG WILL BEGIN
TO FORM LATER IN THE EVENING AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. AND IT
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS PERSISTING SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK. EVENTUALLY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR...IF NOT VFR...BY MID MORNING. BUT AGAIN...LIKE TODAY...
ONCE SOME SUNSHINE MATERIALIZES...IT WILL KICK OFF SOME
CONVECTION.

WINDS TODAY AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND
WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
WEST FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL BACK TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT
ON FRIDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 5-10
MPH...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW AT AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION...LOWERING ZONE FFG VALUES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY YESTERDAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THESE PERIODS...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...WET EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN STORE
FOR MANY AREAS AS UPPER FORCING FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE NOW
ENTERING WRN PA RIDES NORTHEAST. DIFFERING DYNAMICAL/QPF SOLNS
OFFERED BY VARIOUS MODELS...BUT FEEL NAM/UKMET HAVE BETTER
INITIALIZATION W/UPPER FEATURES. GIVEN AMPLE COLUMNAR MOISTURE
PROFILES AND AT LEAST SOME BNDRY LYR DESTABILIZATION TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL CURRENT SHOWERY REGIME WILL BE
REPLACED BY MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIDING
NORTH FROM CENTRAL/SRN NEW YORK LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND
MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE LVL ABOUT
AVG ON SEEING ANY FLOODING...MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL CHARACTER
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE TAKEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS
ANTECEDENT WET CONDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL
ALLOW ELEVATED RUNOFF CONCERNS SHOULD ANY HEAVIER PCPN CORES
DEVELOP LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING (SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).
OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN VERY SIMILAR TO VALUES OVER THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 62 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN TO THEN CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS ATOP AND JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. INDEED...HIGHS ON THE 4TH LIKELY SOME 10-15 DEG
BELOW EARLY JULY NORMS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S ALL
AREAS UNDER CLOUDY/SHOWERY WX. DID OPT TO DOWNPLAY THREAT OF
THUNDER SIMILAR TO EARLIER FCSTS AS BNDRY LYR DESTABILIZATION
VERY MEAGER. ENOUGH RESIDUAL COOL POOL ALOFT THAT PERHAPS A FEW
CELLS COULD PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES IF ANY SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED...BUT AGAIN THREAT MARGINAL.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND PULL
EAST...AS SKIES BECOME CLR/PC. QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP IF YOU
BELIEVE CURRENT GUIDANCE...WITH MANY AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
40S. THUS JACKETS LIKELY NEEDED FOR ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS IN THE
EVENING HOURS DESPITE IMPROVING WX CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE HAVE HAD
RECENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE OUR
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. UPPER LOW WILL THEN GET CAUGHT UP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND CENTER
OF UPPER LOW. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 18Z. FROM NOW UNTIL 00Z MAY SEE SHOWERS FILL IN
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AFTER SUNSET SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. THERE
MAY BE SOME BR AND FG AROUND IN THE AREAS THAT HAD THE HEAVIEST
RAIN TODAY AS WINDS GO LIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY IMPROVE AFTER THESE SHOWERS DIE DOWN. THERE WILL BE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT
CAN NOT SAY WHERE EXACTLY THIS WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AREAL
COVERAGE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING MORE THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS...
THOUGH W/ADDL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED...SMALLER SCALE BASIN LVL EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESP IN NRN NY WHERE BEST BNDRY LYR
INSTABILITY EXISTS. WHILE LOW TO MID LVL WIND PROFILES SHOULD
ALLOW AT LEAST SOME CELL MOVEMENT...LOW MBE VELOCITIES CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST TRAINING POTENTIAL...WHICH APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
N-S MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMNAR PWAT VALUES
FROM 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 3KM ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ALSO LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. THIS SUGGESTS
HEAVIER CELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. WITH
1-3 AND 6 HR HEADWATER FFG REMAINING QUITE LOW ACROSS OUR AREA
HYDRO CONDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KCXX REMAINS DOWN TODAY DUE TO FAILURE OF A MOTOR DRIVE.
REPLACEMENT PARTS ARE BEING SHIPPED AND ARE DUE TO ARRIVE TODAY.
HOWEVER THE TIME OF RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS UNKNOWN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THESE PERIODS...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...WET EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN STORE
FOR MANY AREAS AS UPPER FORCING FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE NOW
ENTERING WRN PA RIDES NORTHEAST. DIFFERING DYNAMICAL/QPF SOLNS
OFFERED BY VARIOUS MODELS...BUT FEEL NAM/UKMET HAVE BETTER
INITIALIZATION W/UPPER FEATURES. GIVEN AMPLE COLUMNAR MOISTURE
PROFILES AND AT LEAST SOME BNDRY LYR DESTABILIZATION TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL CURRENT SHOWERY REGIME WILL BE
REPLACED BY MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIDING
NORTH FROM CENTRAL/SRN NEW YORK LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS WILL KEEP POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE...AND MAINTAIN
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE LVL ABOUT AVG ON SEEING
ANY FLOODING...MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL CHARACTER SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
TAKEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. NONETHELESS ANTECEDENT WET CONDS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED RUNOFF
CONCERNS SHOULD ANY HEAVIER PCPN CORES DEVELOP LATER TODAY/THIS
EVENING (SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW). OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN VERY SIMILAR TO
VALUES OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 62 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN TO THEN CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS CORE OF UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS ATOP AND JUST EAST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
INDEED...HIGHS ON THE 4TH LIKELY SOME 10-15 DEG BELOW EARLY JULY
NORMS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 60S ALL AREAS UNDER
CLOUDY/SHOWERY WX. DID OPT TO DOWNPLAY THREAT OF THUNDER SIMILAR TO
EARLIER FCSTS AS BNDRY LYR DESTABILIZATION VERY MEAGER. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL COOL POOL ALOFT THAT PERHAPS A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE A
FEW RUMBLES IF ANY SUNSHINE CAN BE REALIZED...BUT AGAIN THREAT
MARGINAL.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND PULL EAST...AS
SKIES BECOME CLR/PC. QUITE A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP IF YOU BELIEVE
CURRENT GUIDANCE...WITH MANY AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S. THUS
JACKETS LIKELY NEEDED FOR ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS IN THE EVENING
HOURS DESPITE IMPROVING WX CONDS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CONTINUING TO
PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION CHANCE FOR -RW OVER GD PORTION OF
NC NE VT AS REMAINING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLDS OVER THE
AREA...BUT CWA WILL CLR FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM GREAT LKS REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...SUNDAY NGT ON INTO WEDNESDAY... WILL BE TRENDING A BIT
DRIER ACROSS THE AREA. GFS GOING MUCH DRIER THAN ECMWF DURING THIS
TIME...AND WITH SYSTEM OVER REGION FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH
MDLS HAVE PICKED UP...NOT FULLY COUNTING OUT CLDS/PRECIP TOTALLY
BUT WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS GFS NONE-THE-LESS. A COUPLE SYSTEMS
APPROACH REGION DURING THIS TIME W/ NORTHERN SYSTEM MVG ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER...AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM MVG E OFF THE COAST NEAR
DELMARVA. ECMWF BRINGS SYSTEM OVER THE REGION. W/ SFC RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR SL CHANCE/CHANCE FOR -RW. W/
EXPECTATIONS OF SFC HIGH OVER AREA DURING THE EXTENDED...HAVE KEPT
TEMPS AT OR JUST ABV MDL GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WHERE AREAS MAY SEE GD BREAKS W/LITTLE TO NO CLD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COND WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR THRU
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN THRU 12Z THIS MORNING MAY LWR VSBY TO
4-6SM AT TIMES...W/ CEILINGS BKN025-035. BY 16Z...W/ DAYTIME
HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL TRW. VSBY MAY LWR TO 3SM OR LWR AT TIMES BUT 4-6SM
GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR AFTNOON ACTIVITY. AFT 00Z FRI...DAYTIME
HEATING EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH ANY TRW THRU 06Z FRI...BUT -RW WILL
REMAIN DURING THIS TIME. LGT/VAR CURRENTLY WILL BECM 5-10KTS W/
DIRECTION RANGING FROM ESE IN NY TO SSE OVER VT. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AREAL
COVERAGE HAS BEEN DIMINISHING MORE THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS...
THOUGH W/ADDL FORCING FROM UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED...SMALLER SCALE BASIN LVL EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESP IN NRN NY WHERE BEST BNDRY LYR INSTABILITY
EXISTS. WHILE LOW TO MID LVL WIND PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST
SOME CELL MOVEMENT...LOW MBE VELOCITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAINING
POTENTIAL...WHICH APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE N-S MOISTURE CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMNAR PWAT VALUES FROM 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 3KM ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO LEAD TO
EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. THIS SUGGESTS HEAVIER CELLS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. WITH 1-3 AND 6 HR HEADWATER FFG
REMAINING QUITE LOW ACROSS OUR AREA HDYRO CONDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS LOCALIZED
RUNOFF ISSUES MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KCXX REMAINS DOWN TODAY DUE TO FAILURE OF A MOTOR DRIVE.
REPLACEMENT PARTS ARE BEING SHIPPED AND ARE DUE TO ARRIVE TODAY.
HOWEVER THE TIME OF RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS UNKNOWN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
936 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS EXPECTED. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THE
FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES RIGHT
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 936 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PCPN AND TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA TODAY BASED
OFF LATEST RADAR RETURNS.  06Z NAM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON EVOLUTION OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND HAVE LEANED CLOSE TO
THIS SOLN ACCORDINGLY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL RUNOFF/FLASH FLOODING ISSUES BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
(PLEASE SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW). REST OF FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND
OTHER THAN POP/PCPN CHGS NOTED ABV NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
BY LATE IN THE DAY SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND
WESTERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER VERMONT. THIS
SCENARIO...DEPICTED WELL IN COMPOSITE ANALYSES...HAS HELPED TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THE PAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD
THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST AS WELL.
THUS DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PROMOTING THE TRAINING OF RADAR ECHOES...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST OVER THE MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. RUNOFF
COULD ALSO BE ACCENTUATED BY TERRAIN. WILL RUN FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM 600 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 600 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. AREAL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE A BIT FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY...BUT WITH AREA IN UPPER TROUGH WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CONTINUING TO
PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION CHANCE FOR -RW OVER GD PORTION OF
NC NE VT AS REMAINING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLDS OVER THE
AREA...BUT CWA WILL CLR FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM GREAT LKS REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...SUNDAY NGT ON INTO WEDNESDAY... WILL BE TRENDING A BIT
DRIER ACROSS THE AREA. GFS GOING MUCH DRIER THAN ECMWF DURING THIS
TIME...AND WITH SYSTEM OVER REGION FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH
MDLS HAVE PICKED UP...NOT FULLY COUNTING OUT CLDS/PRECIP TOTALLY
BUT WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS GFS NONE-THE-LESS. A COUPLE SYSTEMS
APPROACH REGION DURING THIS TIME W/ NORTHERN SYSTEM MVG ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER...AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM MVG E OFF THE COAST NEAR
DELMARVA. ECMWF BRINGS SYSTEM OVER THE REGION. W/ SFC RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR SL CHANCE/CHANCE FOR -RW. W/
EXPECTATIONS OF SFC HIGH OVER AREA DURING THE EXTENDED...HAVE KEPT
TEMPS AT OR JUST ABV MDL GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WHERE AREAS MAY SEE GD BREAKS W/LITTLE TO NO CLD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COND WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR THRU
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN THRU 12Z THIS MORNING MAY LWR VSBY TO
4-6SM AT TIMES...W/ CEILINGS BKN025-035. BY 16Z...W/ DAYTIME
HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL TRW. VSBY MAY LWR TO 3SM OR LWR AT TIMES BUT 4-6SM
GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR AFTNOON ACTIVITY. AFT 00Z FRI...DAYTIME
HEATING EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH ANY TRW THRU 06Z FRI...BUT -RW WILL
REMAIN DURING THIS TIME. LGT/VAR CURRENTLY WILL BECM 5-10KTS W/
DIRECTION RANGING FROM ESE IN NY TO SSE OVER VT. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAFL WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY...WITH MEAN BASIN AVG
PCPN OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS VT TODAY...LESSER AMTS ACROSS NRN
NY THOUGH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE HEAR AS WELL. WHILE LOW
TO MID LVL WIND PROFILES SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SOME CELL
MOVEMENT...LOW MBE VELOCITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TRAINING
POTENTIAL...WHICH APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE N-S MOISTURE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. COLUMNAR PWAT VALUES FROM 1.4 TO 1.6
INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 3KM ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO LEAD
TO EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. THIS SUGGESTS HEAVIER CELLS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES. 1-3-6HR HEADWATER FFG
REMAINS QUITE LOW ACROSS OUR AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DACKS
AND THE GREEN MTNS. THUS HDYRO CONDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS RUNOFF ISSUES MAY BECOME
PROBLEMATIC.

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KCXX REMAINS DOWN TODAY DUE TO FAILURE OF A MOTOR DRIVE.
REPLACEMENT PARTS ARE BEING SHIPPED AND ARE DUE TO ARRIVE TODAY.
HOWEVER THE TIME OF RESTORATION OF SERVICE IS UNKNOWN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 021110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS EXPECTED. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THE
FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES RIGHT
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT THURSDAY...SENT A MINOR UPDATE TO THE MORNING
PORTION OF THE FORECAST/GRIDS INDICATING A LESSER THREAT OF
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND MAY CLIP THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HUDSON
VALLEY MAY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT WARMING CLOUD TOPS
SUGGESTS THIS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER. THE LESS THE
ATMOSPHERE GETS WORKED OVER THIS MORNING...THE MORE LIKELY
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED THERE. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY LATE IN THE DAY SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND
WESTERN EDGE OF STRONGER SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER VERMONT. THIS
SCENARIO...DEPICTED WELL IN COMPOSITE ANALYSES...HAS HELPED TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THE PAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD
THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST AS WELL.
THUS DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
PROMOTING THE TRAINING OF RADAR ECHOES...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST OVER THE MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. RUNOFF
COULD ALSO BE ACCENTUATED BY TERRAIN. WILL RUN FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM 600 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 600 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. AREAL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE A BIT FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY...BUT WITH AREA IN UPPER TROUGH WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CONTINUING TO
PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION CHANCE FOR -RW OVER GD PORTION OF
NC NE VT AS REMAINING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLDS OVER THE
AREA...BUT CWA WILL CLR FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM GREAT LKS REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...SUNDAY NGT ON INTO WEDNESDAY... WILL BE TRENDING A BIT
DRIER ACROSS THE AREA. GFS GOING MUCH DRIER THAN ECMWF DURING THIS
TIME...AND WITH SYSTEM OVER REGION FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH
MDLS HAVE PICKED UP...NOT FULLY COUNTING OUT CLDS/PRECIP TOTALLY
BUT WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS GFS NONE-THE-LESS. A COUPLE SYSTEMS
APPROACH REGION DURING THIS TIME W/ NORTHERN SYSTEM MVG ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER...AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM MVG E OFF THE COAST NEAR
DELMARVA. ECMWF BRINGS SYSTEM OVER THE REGION. W/ SFC RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR SL CHANCE/CHANCE FOR -RW. W/
EXPECTATIONS OF SFC HIGH OVER AREA DURING THE EXTENDED...HAVE KEPT
TEMPS AT OR JUST ABV MDL GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WHERE AREAS MAY SEE GD BREAKS W/LITTLE TO NO CLD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COND WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR THRU
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN THRU 12Z THIS MORNING MAY LWR VSBY TO
4-6SM AT TIMES...W/ CEILINGS BKN025-035. BY 16Z...W/ DAYTIME
HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL TRW. VSBY MAY LWR TO 3SM OR LWR AT TIMES BUT 4-6SM
GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR AFTNOON ACTIVITY. AFT 00Z FRI...DAYTIME
HEATING EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH ANY TRW THRU 06Z FRI...BUT -RW WILL
REMAIN DURING THIS TIME. LGT/VAR CURRENTLY WILL BECM 5-10KTS W/
DIRECTION RANGING FROM ESE IN NY TO SSE OVER VT. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN

000
FXUS61 KALY 021037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...STILL PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 330 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS FROM THE
GFS40 OVERLAYED CONTINUES TO SHOW A GREAT LAKES CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING NEAR LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. ROUND 3 OF ACTIVE
WEATHER IS BEGINNING WITH THIS CUTOFF. THE 2ND ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RESULTED IN SEVERAL FLASH FLOODS IN AN AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE WAS ALSO A MINOR SEVERE EVENT WITH
MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.

THE INTERESTING FEATURE TO DEAL WITH FIRST TODAY IS THE SFC
TROUGH/OR WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BASED
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF. THE LATEST MSAS
DATA SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN NJ. ANOTHER WEAK
SFC WAVE CLOSER TO THE CUTOFF IS OVER WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING ERN NY. IT IS A SYNOPTIC RAINBAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE CUTOFF. WE HAVE SEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SOME OF THE CUTOFF
CASES IN CSTAR WITH THE UALBANY /FOR EXAMPLE...14-17 JUL 2000/.

THE HYDRO PUMP CONTINUES TO BE PRIMED OVER THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FORECAST FOR THE CONTINUE POTENTIAL OF
FLASH FLOODING. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE WITH THE 00Z
KALB SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUE OF 1.43".
THIS VALUE IS ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. WE ARE
EXPECTING PWATS BASED ON THE NAM/GFS TO BE IN THE 1.25-1.66" RANGE
TODAY. THE GFS HAS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE /1000-850 HPA/ AXIS
SHIFTING WEST OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CATSKILLS...WHILE THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW IT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H850 FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT
10-20 KTS FROM THE S/SE. WE ARE EXPECTING TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN AN HOUR.

THE NEBULOUS AREA IN THE FCST IS SEVERE WEATHER. SPC CONTINUES TO
HAVE FROM APPROX THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH IN A SLIGHT
RISK. WE AGREE THAT ONCE THIS RAINBAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WAVE...THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY
CLEAR A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SE MI/WRN LAKE ERIE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
IN THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES OF
750-1250 J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH WITH BETTER SFC
DEWPOINTS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO POSSIBLY U60S NEAR KPOU. THE NAM
SHOWS LESS SBCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH LIFTED INDICES
OF -1C TO -3C. THE DEEP BULK SHEAR /0-6 KM/ IN BOTH MODELS
CONTINUES TO BE 30-35 KTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AND THE BERKSHIRES. A BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
A CLUSTER/LINE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE ARE AROUND 6C/KM...SO A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS COULD
OCCUR...IF ENOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WE DON/T THINK SRN VT WILL BE IN THE
MIX...SO IN THE GRIDS/ZONES WE WILL PHRASE IT FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...THAT A FEW STORMS
MAYBE SEVERE. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HVY RAINFALL.
MORE DISCUSSION ON RAINFALL IN THE NEXT SEGMENT.

TEMPS TODAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MORNING RAINFALL. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE AVN/NAM MOS MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TIED TO
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SFC WAVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND VT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE
HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE FOLLOWED HPC
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. THE LATEST ECMWF DOES HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE WRN ZONES INTO CNTRL NY...AS THE SFC WAVE IS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER CLOSED TROUGH TURNING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. IT WOULD HELP IF
THIS RAIN DID FALL WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER
YESTERDAYS DELUGE. NONETHELESS...WE ARE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 10Z/FRI TO COVER THE HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE PLACED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
CLEARING...AND RECENTLY WET GROUND.

FRIDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH THE CUTOFF
FINALLY OPENING AND MOVING A BIT OVER SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE DIURNAL
HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE COOLING CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM.
THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE AREA.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A RESIDUAL MOIST AXIS IS TRICKY AT TIMES...WITH
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH CUTOFFS. WE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION ON FRI.
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A SEE TEXT FOR NOW.

FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY REINFORCING THE CUTOFF
SLIDING DOWNSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS A POOL OF
VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. H850 TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA
MAY ONLY BE 6-9C FROM NW TO SE FOR JULY 4TH. THAT IS ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AT THAT LEVEL BY A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ! WE MAY ONLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID 60S TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD POOL AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. THEY WILL BE TIED TO THE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE WENT SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND
CHANCE VALUES NORTH AND WEST. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SIMMER DOWN BEFORE THE INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING SHOWS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE LOW AND STUBBORN H5 TROF FINALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH
WEAK...WILL CREST OVER FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. THE NET RESULT LOOKS
TO FINALLY BE SOME DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF H5 TROF AXIS AS WELL AS SFC
LOW TRACK BTWN GFS AND ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH GIVE FA SOME QPF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FASTER TO MOVE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVING OFF EAST COAST. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW AND THUS MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ONE DIFFERENCE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH UP THE HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW IN MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOME OF THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE
HEAVY ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IT
LOOKS EVEN LESS CERTAIN THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS TO WHERE CONVECTION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. WILL LEAVE SHOWERS AND MENTION OF CB IN
AT KGFL AND KALB BUT REDUCE TO VCSH AT KPOU AS LESS CERTAIN
FARTHER S. LATER TONIGHT ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO WRN
NEW ENG AND WILL DROP MENTION OF PCPN TO VCSH AT KALB AFT 06Z AND
KGFL AFT 08Z.

WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL BACK TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT
ON FRIDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 5-10
MPH...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW AT AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION...LOWERING ZONE FFG VALUES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY YESTERDAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/WASULA

000
FXUS61 KALY 020834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...STILL PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 330 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS FROM THE
GFS40 OVERALYED CONTINUES TO SHOW A GREAT LAKES CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING NEAR LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. ROUND 3 OF ACTIVE WEATHER
IS BEGINNING WITH THIS CUTOFF. THE 2ND ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER RESULTED IN SEVERAL FLASH FLOODS IN AN AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION. THERE WAS ALSO A MINOR SEVERE EVENT WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND
ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.

THE INTERESTING FEATURE TO DEAL WITH FIRST TODAY IS THE SFC
TROUGH/OR WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BASED
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF. THE LATEST MSAS
DATA SHOWS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN NJ. ANOTHER WEAK
SFC WAVE CLOSER TO THE CUTOFF IS OVER WRN NY/LAKE ONTARIO. A
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
APPROACHING ERN NY. IT IS A SYNOPTIC RAINBAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE CUTOFF. WE HAVE SEEN THESE FEATURES WITH SOME OF THE CUTOFF
CASES IN CSTAR WITH THE UALBANY /FOR EXAMPLE...14-17 JUL 2000/.

THE HYDRO PUMP CONTINUES TO BE PRIMED OVER THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FORECAST FOR THE CONTINUE POTENTIAL OF
FLASH FLOODING. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS IN PLACE WITH THE 00Z
KALB SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUE OF 1.43".
THIS VALUE IS ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. WE ARE
EXPECTING PWATS BASED ON THE NAM/GFS TO BE IN THE 1.25-1.66" RANGE
TODAY. THE GFS HAS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE /1000-850 HPA/ AXIS
SHIFTING WEST OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CATSKILLS...WHILE THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW IT OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H850 FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT
10-20 KTS FROM THE S/SE. WE ARE EXPECTING TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN AN HOUR.

THE NEBULOUS AREA IN THE FCST IS SEVERE WEATHER. SPC CONTINUES TO
HAVE FROM APPROX THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH IN A SLIGHT
RISK. WE AGREE THAT ONCE THIS RAINBAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WAVE...THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY
CLEAR A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SE MI/WRN LAKE ERIE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING
IN THE LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES OF
750-1250 J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH WITH BETTER SFC
DEWPOINTS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO POSSIBLY U60S NEAR KPOU. THE NAM
SHOWS LESS SBCAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH LIFTED INDICES
OF -1C TO -3C. THE DEEP BULK SHEAR /0-6 KM/ IN BOTH MODELS
CONTINUES TO BE 30-35 KTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
AND THE BERKSHIRES. A BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN
A CLUSTER/LINE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE ARE AROUND 6C/KM...SO A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS COULD
OCCUR...IF ENOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. WE DON/T THINK SRN VT WILL BE IN THE
MIX...SO IN THE GRIDS/ZONES WE WILL PHRASE IT FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...BERKSHIRES SOUTH...THAT A FEW STORMS
MAYBE SEVERE. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HVY RAINFALL.
MORE DISCUSSION ON RAINFALL IN THE NEXT SEGMENT.

TEMPS TODAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MORNING RAINFALL. WE USED A BLEND
OF THE AVN/NAM MOS MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TIED TO
THE SHORT WAVE AND THE SFC WAVE ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND VT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE
HAD SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE FOLLOWED HPC
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST. THE LATEST ECMWF DOES HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THE WRN ZONES INTO CNTRL NY...AS THE SFC WAVE IS CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER CLOSED TROUGH TURNING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE. IT WOULD HELP IF
THIS RAIN DID FALL WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER
YESTERDAYS DELUGE. NONETHELESS...WE ARE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 10Z/FRI TO COVER THE HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE PLACED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS WITH SOME
CLEARING...AND RECENTLY WET GROUND.

FRIDAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH THE CUTOFF
FINALLY OPENING AND MOVING A BIT OVER SRN QUEBEC. THE CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE DIURNAL
HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE COOLING CLOSER TO 6.5C/KM.
THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE AREA.
NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A RESIDUAL MOIST AXIS IS TRICKY AT TIMES...WITH
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH CUTOFFS. WE ADDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION ON FRI.
SPC HAS PLACED US IN A SEE TEXT FOR NOW.

FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...PRONOUNCED COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY REINFORCING THE CUTOFF
SLIDING DOWNSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS A POOL OF
VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. H850 TEMPS OVER THE FCST AREA
MAY ONLY BE 6-9C FROM NW TO SE FOR JULY 4TH. THAT IS ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AT THAT LEVEL BY A FEW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ! WE MAY ONLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID 60S TO MID
70S IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD POOL AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. THEY WILL BE TIED TO THE
DIURNAL HEATING. WE WENT SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF ALBANY...AND
CHANCE VALUES NORTH AND WEST. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SIMMER DOWN BEFORE THE INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENING SHOWS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE LOW AND STUBBORN H5 TROF FINALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH
WEAK...WILL CREST OVER FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT. THE NET RESULT LOOKS
TO FINALLY BE SOME DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

ON TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF H5 TROF AXIS AS WELL AS SFC
LOW TRACK BTWN GFS AND ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH GIVE FA SOME QPF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FASTER TO MOVE SYSTEM OUT TO SEA TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF SYSTEM MOVING OFF EAST COAST. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW AND THUS MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ONE DIFFERENCE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PA AND SE NY ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW IN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AREA
OF PCPN EXPECTED TO REACH KPOU AROUND 08Z AND KALB AND KGFL BTWN
09Z AND 11Z. SOME OF THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE HEAVY ONCE AGAIN AND
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER
ONSET. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IT LOOKS EVEN
LESS CERTAIN THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS TO WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE
MOST WIDESPREAD. WILL LEAVE SHOWERS AND MENTION OF CB IN AT KGFL
AND KALB BUT REDUCE TO VCSH AT KPOU AS LESS CERTAIN FARTHER S.

WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS...MIST...AND FOG.
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL BACK TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT
ON FRIDAY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 5-10
MPH...THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SW AT AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION...LOWERING ZONE FFG VALUES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY YESTERDAY.

WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...15
HYDROLOGY...WASULA/RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS EXPECTED. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THE
FOURTH OF JULY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES RIGHT
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE
DAY...SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND WESTERN EDGE OF
STRONGER SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER VERMONT. THIS SCENARIO...DEPICTED
WELL IN COMPOSITE ANALYSES...HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THE PAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE
ERIE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST AS WELL. THUS DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND COMBINED WITH SOME
INSTABILITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PROMOTING
THE TRAINING OF RADAR ECHOES...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST OVER THE MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. RUNOFF COULD ALSO BE
ACCENTUATED BY TERRAIN. WILL RUN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 600 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 600 AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA. AREAL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE A BIT FOR THE FOURTH
OF JULY...BUT WITH AREA IN UPPER TROUGH WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CONTINUING TO
PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION CHANCE FOR -RW OVER GD PORTION OF
NC NE VT AS REMAINING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLDS OVER THE
AREA...BUT CWA WILL CLR FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM GREAT LKS REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED...SUNDAY NGT ON INTO WEDNESDAY... WILL BE TRENDING A BIT
DRIER ACROSS THE AREA. GFS GOING MUCH DRIER THAN ECMWF DURING THIS
TIME...AND WITH SYSTEM OVER REGION FOR PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH
MDLS HAVE PICKED UP...NOT FULLY COUNTING OUT CLDS/PRECIP TOTALLY
BUT WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS GFS NONE-THE-LESS. A COUPLE SYSTEMS
APPROACH REGION DURING THIS TIME W/ NORTHERN SYSTEM MVG ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER...AND SOUTHERN SYSTEM MVG E OFF THE COAST NEAR
DELMARVA. ECMWF BRINGS SYSTEM OVER THE REGION. W/ SFC RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR SL CHANCE/CHANCE FOR -RW. W/
EXPECTATIONS OF SFC HIGH OVER AREA DURING THE EXTENDED...HAVE KEPT
TEMPS AT OR JUST ABV MDL GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WHERE AREAS MAY SEE GD BREAKS W/LITTLE TO NO CLD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COND WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR THRU
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN THRU 12Z THIS MORNING MAY LWR VSBY TO
4-6SM AT TIMES...W/ CEILINGS BKN025-035. BY 16Z...W/ DAYTIME
HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL TRW. VSBY MAY LWR TO 3SM OR LWR AT TIMES BUT 4-6SM
GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR AFTNOON ACTIVITY. AFT 00Z FRI...DAYTIME
HEATING EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH ANY TRW THRU 06Z FRI...BUT -RW WILL
REMAIN DURING THIS TIME. LGT/VAR CURRENTLY WILL BECM 5-10KTS W/
DIRECTION RANGING FROM ESE IN NY TO SSE OVER VT. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RJS/JN

000
FXUS61 KALY 020553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THEY
MAY ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.  NEXT SHORT
WAVE WAS ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST PA AND BASED ON PURE
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THIS BATCH INTO THE CWA WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS
OVERNIGHT.  WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE WHERE THEY SHOULD SETTLE AND
SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 60 OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM WAS CROSSING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH
SHOULD BE OUR CULPRIT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AM.  WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD PHASE OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION
FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD.   BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL
DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST AS THE GFS MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAVE OPTED TO POPULATE THE EXTENDED
GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MOSTLY TO BLEND
BETTER WITH ADJOINING WFOS. FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH A WEAK HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  A WEAK IMPULSE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE MOSTLY
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
AREA STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LOW AND THUS MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ONE DIFFERENCE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PA AND SE NY ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW IN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AREA
OF PCPN EXPECTED TO REACH KPOU AROUND 08Z AND KALB AND KGFL BTWN
09Z AND 11Z. SOME OF THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE HEAVY ONCE AGAIN AND
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER
ONSET. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IT LOOKS EVEN
LESS CERTAIN THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS TO WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE
MOST WIDESPREAD. WILL LEAVE SHOWERS AND MENTION OF CB IN AT KGFL
AND KALB BUT REDUCE TO VCSH AT KPOU AS LESS CERTAIN FARTHER S.

WINDS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS...MIST...AND FOG.
FRI-SAT...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA
AND SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.
SUN-MON...VFR. PSBL MVFR WITH EARLY MORNING BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT...FALL BACK TO 70 TO 90
PERCENT THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 100 PERCENT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOG DRIP AND/OR DEW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 10
MPH...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...HIGH CAPE VALUES...HIGH PWATS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
ANOTHER PCPN MAXIMUM OF 1-3 INCHES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL TEND TO MOVE S/SW TO
THE N/NE TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE
DOWNPOURS OF AN INCH OR SO IN LESS THAN AN HOUR MAY OCCUR. THE
THREAT OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE S/SW FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE 1-HR ZONE FFG VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE HSA. WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING.

ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS
COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL...SO WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...KOLECI
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KOLECI
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 020548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...MEANING PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE
SVR TSTM WATCH. STILL A STRONG TSTM OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WRN
NY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE MODIFIED POP
GRIDS AGAIN BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. KEPT IN CHC SHWRS AFTER
MIDNITE FOR SRN SECTIONS. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SKIRT BY
JUST TO OUT SOUTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WFO BTV HAS REASSUMED FCST RESPONSIBILITY AS THE REGIONAL COMMS
OUTAGE HAS BEEN FIXED. QUICK UPDATE BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. QUITE
STABLE EAST OF THE GREENS DUE TO LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE
ATLANTIC PLUS THICK STREAM OF CIRRUS BLOW OFF...SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT IN THOSE AREAS FOR FIRST HAVE OF THE NIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY FROM CHAMP VALLEY WEST. HAVE HAD ONE SEVERE CELL IN
NRN FRANKLIN CO NY. FIGURE IT PRODUCED HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...BUT FELL OVER VERY RURAL AREA...SO NO CONFIRMATION OF
THAT. WILL KEEP SEVERE T-STORM WATCH GOING ATTM. ALSO MONITORING
FOR HVY RAINFALL THREAT. NOTHING SO FAR...BUT WATCHING THAT
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS IT MAY SNEAK INTO
SRN VT NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FADE BY
LATE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY TAKE OUT POPS AFTER MIDNITE AS
ANOTHER VORT MAX SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND SPARK SOME
SHWR ACTIVITY...PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PESKY UPPER LOW CNTRD OVR THE ERN GRT
LAKES AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FCST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EWRD DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME... VRY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SRLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME W/
THE USUAL AFTN ENHANCEMENT BRINGING AN UPSWING IN ACTION INTO THE
ERLY EVENING HRS. CAPE VALS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE COMBINED W/ UPPER FORCING W/ THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW LIKELY TO CONT TO LEAD TO OCNL HVY DOWNPOURS FROM TIME
TO TIME... XPCT CONDS TO QUIET DOWN SOME THU/FRI NGT NIGHT W/ THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DVLPMT DURING THE LATE NGT AND
ERLY AM HRS...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW FCST TO FINALLY MIGRATE E OF
THE AREA BY SUN W/ A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE RDG XPCTD TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
UPPER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SEWRD INTO THE AREA BY TUE.
LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUGGESTS THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT EVEN W/ THE WEAK UPPER
RDG IN PLACE SO HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHC TO SLGT CHC POPS
RGT THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COND WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR THRU
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN THRU 12Z THIS MORNING MAY LWR VSBY TO
4-6SM AT TIMES...W/ CEILINGS BKN025-035. BY 16Z...W/ DAYTIME
HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY RAIN ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL TRW. VSBY MAY LWR TO 3SM OR LWR AT TIMES BUT 4-6SM
GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR AFTNOON ACTIVITY. AFT 00Z FRI...DAYTIME
HEATING EFFECTS WILL DIMINISH ANY TRW THRU 06Z FRI...BUT -RW WILL
REMAIN DURING THIS TIME. LGT/VAR CURRENTLY WILL BECM 5-10KTS W/
DIRECTION RANGING FROM ESE IN NY TO SSE OVER VT. HIR TRRN OBSCD AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJS/JN

000
FXUS61 KALY 020207
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1007 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THEY
MAY ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.  NEXT SHORT
WAVE WAS ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST PA AND BASED ON PURE
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THIS BATCH INTO THE CWA WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED POPS
OVERNIGHT.  WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE WHERE THEY SHOULD SETTLE AND
SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 60 OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM WAS CROSSING SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH
SHOULD BE OUR CULPRIT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AM.  WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD PHASE OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION
FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD.   BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL
DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST AS THE GFS MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAVE OPTED TO POPULATE THE EXTENDED
GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MOSTLY TO BLEND
BETTER WITH ADJOINING WFOS. FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH A WEAK HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  A WEAK IMPULSE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE MOSTLY
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TEMPORARILY IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR ALBANY WHERE THE VISIBILITY WAS
STILL MVFR IN -SHRA/BR. HOWEVER THIS PERIOD OF VFR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST MORE THAN ABOUT TWO HOURS AS VISIBLITY AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS...MIST...AND LOW
STRATUS BY 02Z...AND FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR BY 04Z. DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPECTED WITH VISIBLITY LESS THAN A MILE IN FOG AND CEILINGS
BELOW 500 FEET AGL...AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE AIR FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
LIGHT MOSTLY FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING...AND THEY
ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY CALM AFTER 04Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...WITH LOW CLOUDS...
MIST...HAZE...AND RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS...MIST...AND FOG.
FRI-SUN...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND
SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT...FALL BACK TO 70 TO 90
PERCENT THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 100 PERCENT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOG DRIP AND/OR DEW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 10
MPH...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...HIGH CAPE VALUES...HIGH PWATS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
ANOTHER PCPN MAXIMUM OF 1-3 INCHES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL TEND TO MOVE S/SW TO
THE N/NE TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE
DOWNPOURS OF AN INCH OR SO IN LESS THAN AN HOUR MAY OCCUR. THE
THREAT OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE S/SW FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE 1-HR ZONE FFG VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE HSA. WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING.

ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS
COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL...SO WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...KOLECI
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...VTK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 012353
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...MEANING PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE
SVR TSTM WATCH. STILL A STRONG TSTM OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WRN
NY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE MODIFIED POP
GRIDS AGAIN BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. KEPT IN CHC SHWRS AFTER
MIDNITE FOR SRN SECTIONS. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SKIRT BY
JUST TO OUT SOUTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WFO BTV HAS REASSUMED FCST RESPONSIBILITY AS THE REGIONAL COMMS
OUTAGE HAS BEEN FIXED. QUICK UPDATE BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. QUITE
STABLE EAST OF THE GREENS DUE TO LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE
ATLANTIC PLUS THICK STREAM OF CIRRUS BLOW OFF...SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT IN THOSE AREAS FOR FIRST HAVE OF THE NIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY FROM CHAMP VALLEY WEST. HAVE HAD ONE SEVERE CELL IN
NRN FRANKLIN CO NY. FIGURE IT PRODUCED HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...BUT FELL OVER VERY RURAL AREA...SO NO CONFIRMATION OF
THAT. WILL KEEP SEVERE T-STORM WATCH GOING ATTM. ALSO MONITORING
FOR HVY RAINFALL THREAT. NOTHING SO FAR...BUT WATCHING THAT
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS IT MAY SNEAK INTO
SRN VT NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FADE BY
LATE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY TAKE OUT POPS AFTER MIDNITE AS
ANOTHER VORT MAX SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND SPARK SOME
SHWR ACTIVITY...PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PESKY UPPER LOW CNTRD OVR THE ERN GRT
LAKES AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FCST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EWRD DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME... VRY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SRLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME W/
THE USUAL AFTN ENHANCEMENT BRINGING AN UPSWING IN ACTION INTO THE
ERLY EVENING HRS. CAPE VALS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE COMBINED W/ UPPER FORCING W/ THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW LIKELY TO CONT TO LEAD TO OCNL HVY DOWNPOURS FROM TIME
TO TIME... XPCT CONDS TO QUIET DOWN SOME THU/FRI NGT NIGHT W/ THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DVLPMT DURING THE LATE NGT AND
ERLY AM HRS...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW FCST TO FINALLY MIGRATE E OF
THE AREA BY SUN W/ A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE RDG XPCTD TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
UPPER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SEWRD INTO THE AREA BY TUE.
LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUGGESTS THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT EVEN W/ THE WEAK UPPER
RDG IN PLACE SO HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHC TO SLGT CHC POPS
RGT THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...CONDITIONS QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING DUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NRN NY TAF SITES
THRU ABOUT 02Z. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN ANY TSRA
ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRF IFR CONDITIONS. MARITIME
INFLUENCE EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS RESULTING IN LOWER THREAT OF TSRA
IN THIS AREA...BUT ALSO LOWER CIGS (MVFR) AT KMPV AND AT KRUT.
THREAT OF TSRA WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT WIDELY SCT SHWRS OVRNGHT WITH AREAS OF BR
AND LOW CLDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING
THURSDAY...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 012348
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 601 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WFO BTV HAS REASSUMED FCST
RESPONSIBILITY AS THE REGIONAL COMMS OUTAGE HAS BEEN FIXED. QUICK
UPDATE BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. QUITE STABLE EAST OF THE GREENS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE ATLANTIC PLUS THICK STREAM OF
CIRRUS BLOW OFF...SO HAVE DROPPED POPS A BIT IN THOSE AREAS FOR
FIRST HAVE OF THE NIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY FROM CHAMP VALLEY WEST.
HAVE HAD ONE SEVERE CELL IN NRN FRANKLIN CO NY. FIGURE IT PRODUCED
HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...BUT FELL OVER VERY RURAL AREA...SO NO
CONFIRMATION OF THAT. WILL KEEP SEVERE T-STORM WATCH GOING ATTM.
ALSO MONITORING FOR HVY RAINFALL THREAT. NOTHING SO FAR...BUT
WATCHING THAT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS IT
MAY SNEAK INTO SRN VT NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE STRONG
CONVECTION WILL FADE BY LATE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY TAKE
OUT POPS AFTER MIDNITE AS ANOTHER VORT MAX SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND SPARK SOME SHWR ACTIVITY...PERHAPS A BIT BETTER
CHANCE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING TODAY HAS
PRODUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...HUDSON VALLEY AND MOST OF
VERMONT. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
LEADING TO AN INCREASE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO CONSIDERED TO BE FACTOR AS RECENT RAINS
COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS TODAY COULD ELEVATE THE THREAT
OF FLOODING. EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ESPECIALLY
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DIEING OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PESKY UPPER LOW CNTRD OVR THE ERN GRT
LAKES AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FCST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EWRD DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME... VRY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SRLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME W/
THE USUAL AFTN ENHANCEMENT BRINGING AN UPSWING IN ACTION INTO THE
ERLY EVENING HRS. CAPE VALS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE COMBINED W/ UPPER FORCING W/ THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW LIKELY TO CONT TO LEAD TO OCNL HVY DOWNPOURS FROM TIME
TO TIME... XPCT CONDS TO QUIET DOWN SOME THU/FRI NGT NIGHT W/ THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DVLPMT DURING THE LATE NGT AND
ERLY AM HRS...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW FCST TO FINALLY MIGRATE E OF
THE AREA BY SUN W/ A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE RDG XPCTD TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
UPPER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SEWRD INTO THE AREA BY TUE.
LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUGGESTS THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT EVEN W/ THE WEAK UPPER
RDG IN PLACE SO HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHC TO SLGT CHC POPS
RGT THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...CONDITIONS QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING DUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NRN NY TAF SITES
THRU ABOUT 02Z. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN ANY TSRA
ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRF IFR CONDITIONS. MARITIME
INFLUENCE EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS RESULTING IN LOWER THREAT OF TSRA
IN THIS AREA...BUT ALSO LOWER CIGS (MVFR) AT KMPV AND AT KRUT.
THREAT OF TSRA WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT WIDELY SCT SHWRS OVRNGHT WITH AREAS OF BR
AND LOW CLDS WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING
THURSDAY...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 012341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 536 WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING...FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FOG/STRATUS WHICH COVERED THE REGION TOOK ITS TIME BURNING
OFF IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT NOW THAT IT HAS DONE SO THE SUN
WAS DECREASING STABILITY AND CONVECTION WAS FIRING UP ACROSS THE
REGION WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME A VERY ACTIVE
AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVING NORTH. DID SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBS. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
LIKELY FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN CATEGORICAL FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE CAPES 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES FROM THE
12Z SOUNDINGS WERE 1.0 TO 1.4 INCHES. STEERING WINDS WERE
AROUND 30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
02Z FRIDAY OR 10PM THURSDAY. BY THEN WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
HEAVY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. LIFTED INDEXES MINUS
MINUS 2 TO MINUS 6 BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE LOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE
HIGH THURSDAY...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MET/MOS AND
THE MAV/MOS GUIDANCE...AND PRIMARILY USED THE NAM-12 FOR THE
WINDS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTER
NOON HOURS.

THE CUTOFF LOW AT 500 HPA IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING
THIS PERIOD...WITH IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AM.  WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.  ON
SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND IT LOOKS
LIKE THE PRECIP SHOULD PHASE OUT FOR LATE SATURDAY AND THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD.   BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL DROP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST AS THE GFS MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST. &&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAVE OPTED TO POPULATE THE EXTENDED
GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A FEW CHANGES MOSTLY TO BLEND
BETTER WITH ADJOINING WFOS. FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH A WEAK HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  A WEAK IMPULSE
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE MOSTLY
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TEMPORARILY IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR ALBANY WHERE THE VISIBILITY WAS
STILL MVFR IN -SHRA/BR. HOWEVER THIS PERIOD OF VFR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST MORE THAN ABOUT TWO HOURS AS VISIBLITY AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS...MIST...AND LOW
STRATUS BY 02Z...AND FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR BY 04Z. DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPECTED WITH VISIBLITY LESS THAN A MILE IN FOG AND CEILINGS
BELOW 500 FEET AGL...AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE AIR FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE
LIGHT MOSTLY FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING...AND THEY
ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY CALM AFTER 04Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...WITH LOW CLOUDS...
MIST...HAZE...AND RAIN SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH MORE LOW CLOUDS...MIST...AND FOG.
FRI-SUN...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTN SHRA/TSRA AND
SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MOIST AIR
MASS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 65 TO 80 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT...FALL BACK TO 70 TO 90
PERCENT THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 100 PERCENT THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOG DRIP AND/OR DEW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY AT AROUND 10
MPH...THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY BASED ON WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...HIGH CAPE VALUES...HIGH PWATS...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON GROUND TRUTH AND THE STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION PRODUCT HAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING OVER 3 INCHES FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.
ANOTHER PCPN MAXIMUM OF 1-3 INCHES OCCURRED IN THE CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL TEND TO MOVE S/SW TO
THE N/NE TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE
DOWNPOURS OF AN INCH OR SO IN LESS THAN AN HOUR MAY OCCUR. THE
THREAT OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE S/SW FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE 1-HR ZONE FFG VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE HSA. WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FLASH
FLOODING.

ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THU WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS
COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL...SO WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH.

MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED THAT MUCH SO FAR SINCE
THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN OVER RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS. HOWEVER
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN COULD BRING THAT
RIVER TO NEAR OR OVER FLOOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...KOLECI
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...VTK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 012340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...MEANING PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 732 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE
SVR TSTM WATCH. STILL A STRONG TSTM OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WRN
NY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE MODIFIED POP
GRIDS AGAIN BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. KEPT IN CHC SHWRS AFTER
MIDNITE FOR SRN SECTIONS. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND SKIRT BY
JUST TO OUT SOUTHEAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
WFO BTV HAS REASSUMED FCST RESPONSIBILITY AS THE REGIONAL COMMS
OUTAGE HAS BEEN FIXED. QUICK UPDATE BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS. QUITE
STABLE EAST OF THE GREENS DUE TO LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE
ATLANTIC PLUS THICK STREAM OF CIRRUS BLOW OFF...SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS A BIT IN THOSE AREAS FOR FIRST HAVE OF THE NIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY FROM CHAMP VALLEY WEST. HAVE HAD ONE SEVERE CELL IN
NRN FRANKLIN CO NY. FIGURE IT PRODUCED HAIL THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...BUT FELL OVER VERY RURAL AREA...SO NO CONFIRMATION OF
THAT. WILL KEEP SEVERE T-STORM WATCH GOING ATTM. ALSO MONITORING
FOR HVY RAINFALL THREAT. NOTHING SO FAR...BUT WATCHING THAT
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS IT MAY SNEAK INTO
SRN VT NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE STRONG CONVECTION WILL FADE BY
LATE EVENING...BUT WILL NOT TOTALLY TAKE OUT POPS AFTER MIDNITE AS
ANOTHER VORT MAX SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND SPARK SOME
SHWR ACTIVITY...PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...PESKY UPPER LOW CNTRD OVR THE ERN GRT
LAKES AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FCST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EWRD DURING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME... VRY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SRLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS TIME W/
THE USUAL AFTN ENHANCEMENT BRINGING AN UPSWING IN ACTION INTO THE
ERLY EVENING HRS. CAPE VALS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ABUNDANT
LOW-LVL MOISTURE COMBINED W/ UPPER FORCING W/ THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW LIKELY TO CONT TO LEAD TO OCNL HVY DOWNPOURS FROM TIME
TO TIME... XPCT CONDS TO QUIET DOWN SOME THU/FRI NGT NIGHT W/ THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG BUT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DVLPMT DURING THE LATE NGT AND
ERLY AM HRS...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW FCST TO FINALLY MIGRATE E OF
THE AREA BY SUN W/ A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE RDG XPCTD TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
UPPER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SEWRD INTO THE AREA BY TUE.
LACK OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUGGESTS THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT EVEN W/ THE WEAK UPPER
RDG IN PLACE SO HAVE GENERALLY CARRIED LOW CHC TO SLGT CHC POPS
RGT THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING DUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NRN
NY TAF SITES AND KRUT. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IN
ANY TSRA ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND IFR CONDITIONS. MARITIME
INFLUENCE EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS RESULTING IN LOWER THREAT OF TSRA
IN THIS AREA...BUT ALSO LOWER CIGS (MVFR) AT KMPV AND ALSO AT
KRUT. THREAT OF TSRA WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SCT SHWRS OVRNGHT WITH AREAS OF BR AND LOW
CLDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...EVEN SOME IFR ESPECIALLY KMPV/KRUT.
DURING THURSDAY...EXPECT SHWRS/THNDSTRMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING VFR...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN
SHRA/TSRA.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STAGNANT WX PATTERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WFO CAR
LONG TERM...WFO CAR
AVIATION...RJS