[top]
000
FXUS66 KOTX 032318
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
418 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS WITH THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER BENIGN
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. AS IT DOES...WE WILL LOSE THE DOMINATE DRY...WESTERLY FLOW
THAT HAS RESULTED IN VIRTUALLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW 850-700MB FLOW TO BACK MORE SOUTHERLY AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE JUST LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OREGON WILL
DRIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...0 TO -1 LI`S, AND MARGINAL CAPE
IN PLACE BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE NAM HAS SLIGHTLY
DEEPER BL MOISTURE VERSUS THE DRIER GFS. TYPICALLY THIS IS A NAM
BIAS YET THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SFC TD`S TODAY
VERSUS THE GFS SO I HAVE TROUBLE DISCOUNTING THIS NAM AND DID
INCLUDE A SMALL SLIVER OF DRY THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN WAZ031 AND
ID027. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FROM 22-24 CELSIUS RESULTING
IN PLAIN HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOW-LANDS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 90`S AND ISOLATED 100`S IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN BASIN.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW.
AS THE WAVE NEARS THE COAST...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OREGON WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES AMONGST GUIDANCE IS THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH NOW VIA ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DELAYED
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM ACTUALLY DELAYS THE FROPA UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS A BIT TOO SLOW AND AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GFS/EC. THIS IS WHAT THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW. ADDITIONALLY... THE GFS AND EC PV FIELDS HAVE A BETTER
INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE WAVE VIA SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TIME-HEIGHT
PLOTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SO AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
THIS WAS ADDRESSED IN THE HWO. THE SECOND CHALLENGE WILL COME FROM
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MAKES LANDFALL.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE S/SE ALLOWING STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE BASIN AND CASCADES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS RUN INTO THIS
MOISTURE AT SOME POINT IN THE NIGHT...EARLY MORNING AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE...INCLUDING ALL LOCATIONS.
THE CHALLENGE IS PINPOINTING WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. PATTERN
RECOGNITION TELLS US THAT THIS IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF THE TIMING WAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. BEING THAT
IT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ELEVATED IN
THE NATURE AND THE INTENSITY IS STILL IN QUESTION. AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY...A DEEP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE THE CASCADES AND
WESTERN BASIN ENDING THE THUNDER THREAT...HOWEVER FARTHER
EAST...THIS FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH A LITTLE HEATING MONDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP THE THUNDER THREAT ONGOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SOME 20 DEGREES BRINGING
HIGHS BACK NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AS 850MB TEMPS FALL 8-10
CELSIUS. /SB
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE FETCH...BRINGING PWATS AROUND THREE
FOURTHS INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHICH IS ABOUT 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SOME
HEFTY QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS A JET STREAK AND A STRONG VORT MAX ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS PLACES THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT WITH FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT WILL COMBINE WITH
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO ENHANCE ASCENT. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH A DAY 5/6 QPF FORECAST BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. AT
THIS POINT POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION. THAT ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTER A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE GRADUAL SLOPE
WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH READINGS 8 TO 10
DEGREES BLOW SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. /KELCH
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 59 92 59 93 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
COEUR D`ALENE 54 92 58 90 60 77 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
PULLMAN 49 92 57 89 61 78 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
LEWISTON 62 100 65 98 65 84 / 0 0 0 20 20 20
COLVILLE 51 95 52 96 58 79 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
SANDPOINT 48 90 52 92 59 76 / 0 0 10 10 20 30
KELLOGG 58 90 56 88 58 75 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
MOSES LAKE 59 98 60 96 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 20 20
WENATCHEE 67 97 67 95 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 20 20
OMAK 64 99 60 97 66 80 / 0 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS66 KSEW 032210
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
310 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE MONDAY FOR COOL WEATHER WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LIGHT ONSHORE GRADIENTS INTO WRN WA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERMAL TROF OVER EASTERN WA. TEMPS THRU SUN SHUD WARM A BIT IN THE
INTERIOR OF WRN WA. AN UPPER TROF OFFSHORE WILL PUSH UP A LITTLE BIT
MORE RIDGING AHEAD OF IT FOR WRN WA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU
EARLY SUN. HEIGHTS DO START TO FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO MORE SSW I SEE A FINAL WARM DAY IN THE
INTERIOR JUST AHEAD OF A MARINE PUSH. THE NAM AGREES WITH THE OBS
AND SHOWS ABOUT THE RIGHT OTH-SEA GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARND +2.5MB...THEN ON SATURDAY ONLY +1MB. BY SUNDAY MORNING
THERE ISN`T MUCH W-E GRADIENT ACROSS WA AS THE SFC THERMAL TROF
MUSHES OUT OVER THE WHOLE AREA SO SUNDAY SHUD AGAIN BE QUITE
WARM...HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE OTH-SEA GRADIENT HAS
CLIMBED TO ARND +5MB AND THE PUSH IS ON. AS UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARD
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...NOT MUCH PRECIP IN THE MODELS SO LOW POPS LOOK
FINE...MNLY CASCADES. FOR THE METRO AREA THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE
SAT AFTERNOON THRU EARLY SUN EVENING...IF WE ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
IT WILL BE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD BUT I AM LEANING AWAY FROM ONE NOW
WITH DEW POINTS QUITE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE TODAY. IT COULD BE A
BIT BLUSTERY SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE MARINE PUSH...AND ALSO
INTERESTING IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CASCADES SUNDAY
NIGHT. 19
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER TROF IS OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK BUT THIS
TIME OF YEAR THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH PRECIP. UPPER TROFS IN JULY ARE
OFTEN COOL BUT MOSTLY DRY. IT IS A TRICKY FCST TRYING TO PIN DOWN
WHICH DAYS NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SHOWERS AND WHICH WILL SEE NOTHING
MORE THAN A MARINE LAYER...MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUN. ONSHORE
FLOW A GOOD BET EACH DAY...AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES A GOOD BET
THRU NEXT WEEK. BUT THE FCST CHANCE OF PRECIP IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
LOW...EACH 12 HOUR POP GRID THRU ALL OF NEXT WEEK HAS ONLY A 17PCT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE METRO AREA AND 20-30PCT FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE TROF MOVING IN OVER THE REGION I THINK WE
OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO PUSH A COUPLE OF THE DAYS UP TO AROUND 50PCT AND
MAYBE CALL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW.
AND FOR OTHER DAYS WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO LOWER THE POPS...OR JUST CALL
FOR A LITTLE MORNING DRIZZLE UNDER MARINE STRATUS. 19
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ALREADY UNSEASONABLY
DRY FUELS WITH ONE MORE VERY WARM AND DRY DAY TO GO. SOME RELIEF FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT DO NOT SEE MUCH
INTRUSION INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 14 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY EXCEPT COASTAL
STRIP WHEN MARINE AIR HAS MOVED ABOUT 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO HIGH 20S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT IN MARINE AIR ALONG COAST.
FUELS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FOURTH AND FIFTH WITH NO IMMEDIATE
HELP FROM MOTHER NATURE. THEN SHE THROWS IN SOME FIREWORKS WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING AS MOSTLY DRY...MAINLY OVER THE
CASCADES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CURRENT DRY FUEL
STATE..LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD. THIS
THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
SCREAMING MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME...EVERY ONE NEEDS TO BE EXTREMELY
CAREFUL WITH FIREWORKS AND CAMPFIRES THIS WEEKEND. ALSO...USE YOUR
VEHICLES ASHTRAY. PRANGE
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. LIGHT WLY
OR VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRY AND
STABLE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST. IFR
CIGS WITH 3-5SM BR POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING.
.KSEA...N 6-10 KT..BECOMING NE 4-6 KT BY 06Z. DTM
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT OFFSHORE OR NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
INLAND WATERS THROUGH SUN. ONSHORE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE STRAIT WILL
PICK UP THE NEXT COUPLE EVENINGS WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE BUT LIKELY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...LESS THAN 20 KT.
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING WILL INDUCE A STRONG MARINE PUSH SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. S/SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE PUGET SOUND...ADMIRALTY INLET...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MON. DTM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN WA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND E STRAIT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
000
FXUS66 KOTX 032151
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
251 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS WITH THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER BENIGN
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. AS IT DOES...WE WILL LOSE THE DOMINATE DRY...WESTERLY FLOW
THAT HAS RESULTED IN VIRTUALLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS THE LAST FEW
DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW 850-700MB FLOW TO BACK MORE SOUTHERLY AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE JUST LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OREGON WILL
DRIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...0 TO -1 LI`S, AND MARGINAL CAPE
IN PLACE BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE NAM HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPER
BL MOISTURE VERSUS THE DRIER GFS. TYPICALLY THIS IS A NAM BIAS YET
THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SFC TD`S TODAY VERSUS THE
GFS SO I HAVE TROUBLE DISCOUNTING THIS NAM AND DID INCLUDE A SMALL
SLIVER OF DRY THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN WAZ031 AND ID027. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FROM 22-24 CELSIUS RESULTING IN PLAIN HOT
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOW-LANDS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90`S
AND ISOLATED 100`S IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN BASIN.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW.
AS THE WAVE NEARS THE COAST...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER OREGON WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES AMONGST GUIDANCE IS THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH NOW VIA ALL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DELAYED
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM ACTUALLY DELAYS THE FROPA UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS A BIT TO SLOW AND AN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE GFS/EC. THIS IS WHAT THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW. ADDITIONALLY... THE GFS AND EC PV FIELDS HAVE A BETTER
INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE WAVE VIA SATELLITE
EXTRAPOLATION.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TIME-HEIGHT
PLOTS AND SOUNDINGS SUCH VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SO AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
THIS WAS ADDRESSED IN THE HWO. THE SECOND CHALLENGE WILL COME
FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MAKES
LANDFALL. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE S/SE ALLOWING STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE BASIN AND CASCADES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS RUN
INTO THIS MOISTURE AT SOME POINT IN THE NIGHT...EARLY MORNING AND
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE...INCLUDING
ALL LOCATIONS. THE CHALLENGE IS PINPOINTING WHERE THIS WILL
OCCUR. PATTERN RECOGNITION TELLS US THAT THIS IS EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IF THE TIMING WAS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BEING THAT IS WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION
WILL BE MORE ELEVATED IN THE NATURE AND THE INTENSITY IS STILL IN
QUESTION. AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY...A DEEP
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE
THE CASCADES AND WESTERN BASIN ENDING THE THUNDER THREAT...HOWEVER
FURTHER EAST...THIS FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH A LITTLE HEATING
MONDAY MORNING WILL KEEP THE THUNDER THREAT ONGOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING SOME 20 DEGREES BRINGING
HIGHS BACK NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AS 850MB TEMPS FALL 8-10
CELSIUS. /SB
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS MEANS A CHANGE TO
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE FETCH...BRINGING PWATS AROUND THREE
FOURTHS INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHICH IS ABOUT 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING SOME
HEFTY QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS A JET STREAK AND A STRONG VORT MAX ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THIS PLACES THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT WITH FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC LIFT THAT WILL COMBINE WITH
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO ENHANCE ASCENT. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH A DAY 5/6 QPF FORECAST BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. AT
THIS POINT POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION. THAT ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTER A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE GRADUAL SLOPE
WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH READINGS 8 TO 10
DEGREES BLOW SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. /KELCH
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH 18Z
SAT RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 59 92 59 93 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
COEUR D`ALENE 54 92 58 90 60 77 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
PULLMAN 49 92 57 89 61 78 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
LEWISTON 62 100 65 98 65 84 / 0 0 0 20 20 20
COLVILLE 51 95 52 96 58 79 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
SANDPOINT 48 90 52 92 59 76 / 0 0 10 10 20 30
KELLOGG 58 90 56 88 58 75 / 0 0 0 10 20 30
MOSES LAKE 59 98 60 96 66 81 / 0 0 0 10 20 20
WENATCHEE 67 97 67 95 65 79 / 0 0 0 10 20 20
OMAK 64 99 60 97 66 80 / 0 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS66 KPQR 032117
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
217 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN IS
BRINGING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE
BURNED BACK TO THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON IN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE HOT AND DRY INLAND THROUGH THE 4TH. THE THERMAL
TROUGH SHIFTED INLAND SOMEWHAT TODAY...HOWEVER THE TEMPERATURE
STARTED OUT WARMER THIS MORNING GIVING US TEMPERATURESSIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BE LESS TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
LOOKING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH REACHING INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BEGIN
THE COOLING OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME INSTABILITY BY
SUNDAY IN THE CASCADES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY GIVING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST AND TO THE CASCADES/COASTAL RANGE.
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO HUG THE COAST LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS THINNING AND IT
SHOULD CLEAR BACK FROM THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE CHOPPY. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY
SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND
HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC WEAKENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 031758
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1058 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS WITH THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THEN A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
INLAND NW. SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS A WEAK...DRY WAVE
CROSSING THE WA/OR BORDER WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AT BAY TO OUR SOUTH SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A
850MB TEMPERATURE OF 20.2C WHICH WAS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE
NAM AND GFS. GOING OUT TO THIS AFTERNOON...MIDLEVELS EXPECTED
TO WARM ABOUT 3C YIELDING ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES F OF WARMING AT THE
SFC. 24HOUR TRENDS INDICATE ALL LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING 1 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME. THEREFORE...MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ADJUSTING UPWARD
1 TO 2 DEGREES BASED ON YESTERDAY`S HIGHS.
MAIN CHANGE NOTED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WAS THE SLOWER FROPA
NOW EXPECTED FOR EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE STILL GETS DRAWN
NORTH AHEAD OF THE WAVE SO THE THUNDER THREAT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY EVENING BUT SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER
HOT DAY ACROSS THE CWA. /SB
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH 18Z
SAT RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 91 57 92 61 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COEUR D`ALENE 91 56 92 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
PULLMAN 91 58 92 56 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
LEWISTON 99 61 100 64 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COLVILLE 94 53 95 54 97 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
SANDPOINT 89 54 90 53 95 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
KELLOGG 88 54 90 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
MOSES LAKE 97 56 98 62 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
WENATCHEE 96 67 97 69 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
OMAK 98 57 99 62 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 031546
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE MONDAY FOR MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SUNNY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S ON THE COAST...IN THE STRAIT...AND FOR THE NORTH PART OF
WRN WA NEAR THE WATER. AWAY FROM THE WATER AND IN THE METRO AREA AND
SOUTH INTERIOR HIGH TEMPS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 80S...WITH THE
WARMEST SPOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR NEAR THE CASCADES TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. NOT MUCH CHANGE THRU SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE INTERIOR. ON THE COAST THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD BREAK OUT QUICKLY
TDY AND SAT...COULD HOLD ON LONGER ON SUNDAY ON THE COAST. THAT
COASTAL STRATUS THIS MORNING WAS JUST A SHALLOW RIBBON. MAIN THERMAL
TROF IS OVER ERN WA THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH A WEAKER EXTENSION OF
THE THERMAL TROF EXTENDING INTO THE WARMEST PART OF WRN WA AS WELL
AS VANCOUVER ISLAND. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY ARND 580DAM SO THAT
KEEPS US WELL BELOW RECORD HIGHS. DEW POINTS AROUND SEATTLE THIS
MORNING ARE NEAR 50F...THE DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK MARINE INFLUENCE
SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MASS FAIRLY STABLE...HOWEVER AIR QUALITY
READINGS THIS MORNING WERE ALL GOOD. 19
.LONG TERM...MONDAY WILL BE A VERY DIFFERENT DAY COMPARED TO THE
WEEKEND YOU WILL HAVE ENJOYED. SIGNIFICANT MARINE LAYER WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. ACTUALLY THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A LARGE PART
OF THE WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SETTLES IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS WE
WILL GENERALLY HAVE COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN ANY DETAILS ON THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT
THE REGION WILL SPEND MORE TIME DRY THAN DAMP OVERALL. CERNIGLIA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
WASHINGTON FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
FUEL CONDITIONS (ERC VALUES) HAVE REACHED OR EXCEEDED THE HISTORICAL
90 PERCENTILE RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE COASTAL PLAIN. THAT AREA
IS CLOSE AND WILL LIKELY HIT THAT MARK TODAY. 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES
ARE IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS AND 100 HR FUELS HAVE PUSHED TO AROUND
10 PERCENT OR LOWER. THE 1000 HR FUELS ARE AT OR BELOW THE 20
PERCENT MARK IN MOST AREAS...THOSE THAT ARE NOT...ARE WITHIN 2 TO 4
PERCENTAGE POINTS OF THE 20 PERCENT MARK. IN OTHER WORDS WE HAVE A
VERY DRY FUEL BED OUT THERE AND IT WILL GET DRIER OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S WITH GENERALLY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MD AND HIGH HAINES) IS THE
REASON FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING. FOR PROBLEMS TO DEVELOP...THE ONLY
THING THAT IS MISSING IS A TRIGGER...AND THIS WEEKEND THAT COULD BE
THE FIREWORKS AND CAMPFIRES THAT WILL BE OUT THERE. THAT IS THE MAN
MADE THREAT.
MOTHER NATURE IS LOOKING LIKE SHE COULD THROW IN SOME FIREWORKS OF
HERE OWN AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE PART OF
OUR AREA SUNDAY AND A LARGER PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
DRY AND WITH THE FUELS WHERE THEY ARE...LIGHTNING IGNITION
EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
SCREAMING MESSAGE...EVERY ONE NEEDS TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH
FIREWORKS AND CAMPFIRES THIS WEEKEND. ALSO...USE YOUR VEHICLES
ASHTRAY. CERNIGLIA/PRANGE
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE DRY AND STABLE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING. IFR STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL/S WA COAST WILL
BURN OFF BY 18Z.
.KSEA...NW WIND 3-5 KT...BECOMING NW 6-10 KT AFTER 18Z. DTM
&&
.MARINE...THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRES WILL MEANDER BETWEEN THE COAST
AND CASCADES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH WILL
MOVE INLAND LATER SATURDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ONSHORE GRADIENTS THROUGH
THE STRAIT FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A STRONG MARINE PUSH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PUGET SOUND...ADMIRALTY
INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MON.
DTM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN WA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.
PZ...NONE.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
000
FXUS66 KPQR 031533
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
831 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING IN A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE HOT AND DRY INLAND THROUGH THE 4TH. YESTERDAY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN THE HOTTEST WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTED INLAND SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND SATURDAY...BUT STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING A SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...SO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO BE LESS TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
LOOKING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH REACHING INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BEGIN
THE COOLING OVER THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME INSTABILITY BY
SUNDAY IN THE CASCADES.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND
UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS FAR AS KELSO UNTIL 17Z. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING IN WEAKER ONSHORE
FLOW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH
PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC WEAKENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 031126 CCA
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
425 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS WITH THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THEN A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A DRY AND RATHER
FLAT RIDGE ALOFT TODAY WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT ANY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OREGON OFF TO THE EAST WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CIRRUS CB DEBRIS FIELDS TRANSITING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS ARE
SIMILAR AND AGREE WELL WITH SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION IN MAINTAINING
THE DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS. TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY A BIT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. /FUGAZZI
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GENERAL
SCENARIO OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALLOWING WARMEST AND DRIEST
CONDITIONS TO PEAK FOR MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
A BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE AS A LARGE DIGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM OFF THE COAST AND EJECTS A POTENT SHORTWAVE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND THEN THE LARGE
LOW/TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
KEEPING THINGS ON THE RATHER COOL AND POTENTIALLY SHOWERY SIDE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UTILIZED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN AS FAR AS
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME CERTAINTY THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SEGUE
INTO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HIGHLIGHT LATER ON TODAY. USING LATEST 00Z
GFS 0-6KM AGL WINDS TO COME UP WITH A STORM MOTION THEY SHOULD MOVE
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY AT AROUND 30 TO 40 MILES PER
HOUR...THIS QUICK MOVEMENT...ALONG WITH AN EXPECTED RATHER DRY LAYER
BELOW 700MB THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION WOULD HAVE TO
OVERCOME...LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT ALTHOUGH THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DRY THUNDERSTORMS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. POTENTIAL NUISANCE INVOLVED WITH SUCH AS SCENARIO WOULD
BE LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE FALLING PRECIPITATION
WOULD INVOLVE SLOWER COMBUSTION AS ANY NEARBY FLASHY FUEL IS MOST
LIKELY TO BE WETTER WHILE ANY STRIKES LANDING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING CORE...LIKE THOSE COMING OUT FROM THE
ANVIL... WILL HIT DRIER FUELS AND LIKELY INVOLVE FASTER COMBUSTION.
THROW IN A FEW ELECTRICAL TRANSFORMER/POWER POLE FIRES...WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEM TO MAKE AN OCCURRENCE WITH THE FIRST PRECIPITATION
EVENT AFTER A DRY SPELL...AND IT MAKES IT MORE NECESSARY TO
SCRUTINIZE THIS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD MORE INTENSELY. FOR
DISCUSSION BREVITY APART FROM POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT HELP THOSE WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
THE LARGE TROF/LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY AND OVERHEAD AT
TIMES...AND WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MENTION OF VARYING FORMS REMAIN
PEPPERED INTO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...THE COMBINATION OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THIS VARYING MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE THE FIRE DANGER SOME FOR THE WORKWEEK...WHICH IS
PROBABLY A GOOD THING COMING OUT OF THE FORTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
/PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT
RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AT THE
TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 90 57 91 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COEUR D`ALENE 91 56 90 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
PULLMAN 90 58 90 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
LEWISTON 97 61 97 64 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COLVILLE 92 53 95 54 96 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
SANDPOINT 89 54 89 53 91 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
KELLOGG 88 54 87 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
MOSES LAKE 96 56 96 62 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
WENATCHEE 95 67 96 69 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
OMAK 96 57 97 62 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KOTX 031104 CCA
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
219 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS WITH THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THEN A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A DRY AND RATHER
FLAT RIDGE ALOFT TODAY WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT ANY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OREGON OFF TO THE EAST WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CIRRUS CB DEBRIS FIELDS TRANSITING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS ARE
SIMILAR AND AGREE WELL WITH SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION IN MAINTAINING
THE DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS. TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY A BIT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. /FUGAZZI
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GENERAL
SCENARIO OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALLOWING WARMEST AND DRIEST
CONDITIONS TO PEAK FOR MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
A BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE AS A LARGE DIGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM OFF THE COAST AND EJECTS A POTENT SHORTWAVE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND THEN THE LARGE
LOW/TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
KEEPING THINGS ON THE RATHER COOL AND POTENTIALLY SHOWERY SIDE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UTILIZED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN AS FAR AS
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME CERTAINTY THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SEGUE
INTO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HIGHLIGHT LATER ON TODAY. USING LATEST 00Z
GFS 0-6KM AGL WINDS TO COME UP WITH A STORM MOTION THEY SHOULD MOVE
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY AT AROUND 30 TO 40 MILES PER
HOUR...THIS QUICK MOVEMENT...ALONG WITH AN EXPECTED RATHER DRY LAYER
BELOW 700MB THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION WOULD HAVE TO
OVERCOME...LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT ALTHOUGH THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE DRY THUNDERSTORMS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. POTENTIAL NUISANCE INVOLVED WITH SUCH AS SCENARIO WOULD
BE LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE FALLING PRECIPITATION
WOULD INVOLVE SLOWER COMBUSTION AS ANY NEARBY FLASHY FUEL IS MOST
LIKELY TO BE WETTER WHILE ANY STRIKES LANDING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING CORE...LIKE THOSE COMING OUT FROM THE
ANVIL... WILL HIT DRIER FUELS AND LIKELY INVOLVE FASTER COMBUSTION.
THROW IN A FEW ELECTRICAL TRANSFORMER/POWER POLE FIRES...WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEM TO MAKE AN OCCURRENCE WITH THE FIRST PRECIPITATION
EVENT AFTER A DRY SPELL...AND IT MAKES IT MORE NECESSARY TO
SCRUTINIZE THIS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD MORE INTENSELY. FOR
DISCUSSION BREVITY APART FROM POTENTIALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT HELP THOSE WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
THE LARGE TROF/LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY AND OVERHEAD AT
TIMES...AND WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MENTION OF VARYING FORMS REMAIN
PEPPERED INTO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...THE COMBINATION OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THIS VARYING MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE THE FIRE DANGER SOME FOR THE WORKWEEK...WHICH IS
PROBABLY A GOOD THING COMING OUT OF THE FORTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
/PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH 06Z SAT RESULTING
IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 90 57 91 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COEUR D`ALENE 91 56 90 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
PULLMAN 90 58 90 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
LEWISTON 97 61 97 64 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COLVILLE 92 53 95 54 96 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
SANDPOINT 89 54 89 53 91 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
KELLOGG 88 54 87 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
MOSES LAKE 96 56 96 62 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
WENATCHEE 95 67 96 69 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
OMAK 96 57 97 62 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 031017
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
315 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ON THE COAST HAS MADE ITSELF
KNOWN WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM THE HOQUIAM AREA SOUTH
ALONG THE ENTIRE OREGON COAST. OTHER THAT...SEVERE CLEAR. THE
COASTAL CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE THIS MORNING WITH THE SUN COMING OUT.
OVERALL...TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
MOST AREAS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR SATURDAY...VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY TEMPERATURE WISE WITH HIGHS
CONTINUING 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. WOULD EXPECT JUST A
BIT MORE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN THIS
WILL BURN OFF. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPPER WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING...WILL LIKELY HAVE
A RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHALLOW ONSHORE PUSH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS GO
FLAT LATE IN THE NIGHT. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME.
SUNDAY ONWARD WILL BE AN INTERESTING TIME PERIOD. THE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT MOST WON`T KNOW IT AS CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
COAST AND A BIT DOWN THE STRAIT AND INTO THE CHEHALIS GAP. THIS
LAYER WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING...LEAVING THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WA MIXING BACK INTO THE VERY WARM AIR MASS THAT WILL
STILL BE PLACE OVER THE REGION. ACTUALLY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
AIR MASS UP THROUGH 850 MB WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY. SO WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS COOLER ON THE COAST...THE INTERIOR WILL JUMP BACK
INTO THE 80S. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST HERE
DO TO THE FACT THAT FROM THE SW INTERIOR/PUGET SOUND EASTWARD THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS. I HAVE
BUMPED INTERIOR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S THIS AREA AS A
RESULT. THE CASCADES VALLEYS WILL COOK ONCE AGAIN. THE OTHER
INTERESTING ITEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CASCADES. THAT IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND THE THREAT
STILL EXISTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE FUN WILL HAPPEN AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE POSSIBLY SETTING UP FOR
ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MARINE PUSH. UPPER FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND AN
UNSTABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THIS SET UP LOOKS GOOD
FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A
STRONG MARINE PUSH DEVELOPS UNDER IT. CURRENT GFS RUN SHOWS A VERY
SHARP BOUNDARY PASSING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH A 10-12 DEG C
TEMP DROP IN 3 HOURS...COINCIDENT WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...IT WOULD BE A SIMILAR EVENT TO THAT WHICH TOOK
PLACE A MONTH AGO WHERE SEVERAL BOATERS DIED AROUND THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. CERNIGLIA
.LONG TERM...MONDAY WILL BE A VERY DIFFERENT DAY COMPARED TO THE
WEEKEND YOU WILL HAVE ENJOYED. SIGNIFICANT MARINE LAYER WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. ACTUALLY THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL IDEA FOR A LARGE PART
OF THE WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SETTLES IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS WE
WILL GENERALLY HAVE COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN ANY DETAILS ON THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT
THE REGION WILL SPEND MORE TIME DRY THAN DAMP OVERALL. CERNIGLIA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FUEL CONDITIONS (ERC VALUES) YESTERDAY REACHED OR
EXCEEDED THE 90 PERCENTILE RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THAT AREA IS CLOSE AND WILL LIKELY HIT THAT MARK TODAY. 10
HR FUEL MOISTURES ARE IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS AND 100 HR FUELS HAVE
PUSHED TO AROUND 10% AND LOWER. VERY DRY FUEL BED OUT THERE AND IT
WILL GET DRIER OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH GENERALLY POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR
MASS (HIGH HAINES) IS THE REASON FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT IS IN
PLACE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR PROBLEMS
TO DEVELOP...THE ONLY THING THAT IS MISSING IS A TRIGGER...AND THIS
WEEKEND THAT COULD BE A PROBLEM CONSIDERING THE FIREWORKS AND
CAMPFIRES THAT WILL BE OUT THERE. THAT IS THE MAN MADE THREAT.
MOTHER NATURE IS LOOKING LIKE SHE COULD THROW IN SOME FIREWORKS OF
HERE OWN AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE PART OF
OUR AREA SUNDAY AND A LARGER PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY
DRY AND WITH THE FUELS WHERE THEY ARE...LIGHTNING IGNITION
EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
SCREAMING MESSAGE...EVERY ONE NEEDS TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH
FIREWORKS AND CAMPFIRES THIS WEEKEND. ALSO...USE YOUR VEHICLES
ASHTRAY. CERNIGLIA
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE...WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH MIDMORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRATUS...CIGS NEAR 500 FT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS OF
3-6SM MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT. SOME OF
THIS HAS SEEPED INTO THE W END OF THE LOWER CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY.
THE LAYER WAS SHALLOW HOWEVER...LESS THAN 1K FT DEEP...THUS LOOK
FOR THE CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. THE ENTIRE COAST
WILL SEE STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS.
.KSEA...ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...THAT IS...CLEAR
SKIES WITH NLY WINDS...STRONGEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL DRIFT BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN THE COAST AND E OF THE CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATE AT NIGHT THROUGH MIDMORNING...
AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THUS
ANTICIPATE WINDS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
EASE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES DRIFTS
BACK TO THE COAST.
EXPECT A STRONG MARINE PUSH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
NEAR 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PUGET SOUND...ADMIRALTY
INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MON.
THIS SITUATION APPEARED SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED BACK IN EARLY JUNE.
AT ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ALONG
WITH A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT...FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY...ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MON.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN WA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.
PZ...NONE.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
000
FXUS66 KPQR 030920
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
222 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SHOWN UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...A SIGN THAT WE ARE TURNING AROUND TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. BUT
INLAND...CONTINUED HOT THROUGH THE 4TH. YESTERDAY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
THE HOTTEST WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTED INLAND SOMEWHAT TODAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING. HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. LOOKING FOR AN ONSHORE PUSH REACHING INLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO BEGIN THE COOLING OVER THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE WITH SOME INSTABILITY BY SUNDAY IN THE CASCADES.
STARMER
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE 18Z GFS
RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EXCEPT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES
SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH PRES
OVER THE NE PACIFIC WEAKENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 030919
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
219 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS WITH THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THEN A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A DRY AND RATHER
FLAT RIDGE ALOFT TODAY WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT ANY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER OREGON OFF TO THE EAST WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CIRRUS CB DEBRIS FIELDS TRANSITING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS ARE
SIMILAR AND AGREE WELL WITH SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION IN MAINTAINING
THE DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS. TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY A BIT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH VISIBLE ON SATELLITE. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. /FUGAZZI
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GENERAL
SCENARIO OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALLOWING WARMEST AND DRIEST
CONDITIONS TO PEAK FOR MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
A BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE AS A LARGE DIGGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM OFF THE COAST AND EJECTS A POTENT SHORTWAVE INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND THEN THE LARGE
LOW/TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
KEEPING THINGS ON THE RATHER COOL AND POTENTIALLY SHOWERY SIDE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UTILIZED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN AS FAR AS
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME CERTAINTY THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
SEGUE INTO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HIGHLIGHT LATER ON TODAY. USING LATEST
00Z GFS 0-6KM AGL WINDS TO COME UP WITH A STORM MOTION THEY SHOULD
MOVE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY AT AROUND 30 TO 40
MILES PER HOUR...THIS QUICK MOVEMENT...ALONG WITH AN EXPECTED
RATHER DRY LAYER BELOW 700MB THAT ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION WOULD
HAVE TO OVERCOME...LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT ALTHOUGH THESE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE DRY THUNDERSTORMS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. POTENTIAL NUISANCE INVOLVED WITH SUCH
AS SCENARIO WOULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKES OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE
FALLING PRECIPITATION WOULD INVOLVE SLOWER COMBUSTION AS ANY NEARBY
FLASHY FUEL IS MOST LIKELY TO BE WETTER WHILE ANY STRIKES LANDING
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE PRECIPITATION PRODUCING CORE...LIKE THOSE
COMING OUT FROM THE ANVIL... WILL HIT DRIER FUELS AND LIKELY INVOLVE
FASTER COMBUSTION. THROW IN A FEW ELECTRICAL TRANSFORMER/POWER POLE
FIRES...WHICH TYPICALLY SEEM TO MAKE AN OCCURRENCE WITH THE FIRST
PRECIPITATION EVENT AFTER A DRY SPELL...AND IT MAKES IT MORE
NECESSARY TO SCRUTINIZE THIS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD MORE
INTENSELY. FOR DISCUSSION BREVITY APART FROM POTENTIALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS MONDAY...WHICH DOES NOT HELP THOSE WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL AS
THE LARGE TROF/LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY AND OVERHEAD AT
TIMES...AND WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MENTION OF VARYING FORMS REMAIN
PEPPERED INTO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST...THE COMBINATION OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THIS VARYING MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THE FIRE DANGER SOME FOR THE WORKWEEK...WHICH
IS PROBABLY A GOOD THING COMING OUT OF THE FORTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
/PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH 06Z SAT RESULTING
IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 90 57 91 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COEUR D`ALENE 91 56 90 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
PULLMAN 90 58 90 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
LEWISTON 97 61 97 64 98 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COLVILLE 92 53 95 54 96 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
SANDPOINT 89 54 89 53 91 54 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
KELLOGG 88 54 87 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
MOSES LAKE 96 56 96 62 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
WENATCHEE 95 67 96 69 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
OMAK 96 57 97 62 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KOTX 030520
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1020 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
THEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND MILD AS A FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER
OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SW INTO EASTERN
OREGON...AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
BY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLAT RIDGE GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...ONE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPROUT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE NAM SEEMS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND UNSTABLE THAN THE
GFS...BASED ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT EVEN WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10
KTS...THIS DOESN`T SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE TO REACH THE NAM LEVELS. SO WILL DOWNPLAY THE NAM
INSTABILITY AND LEAN ON IT FOR THE LOCATION OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER FORMATION
FOR THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
CREEP NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN OREGON...AND AFFECT THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
SETS UP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE SURFACE BASED HEAT TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL BE QUITE HOT...ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL START OFF QUITE
WARM...AND THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTH AND ADVECTS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CASCADES AND THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE FUZZY...BUT ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM THE CASCADES INTO NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGREE WITH THE HANDLE OF MOISTURE
AND WINDS AS SEEN IN GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPPOSED TO THE NAM
ATTM. ANTICIPATE THE MAIN PUSH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
CASCADE VALLEYS AND WESTERN BASIN. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL HEIGHTEN CONCERNS FOR THE FIRE USERS IN THE
REGION...AND WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. /RFOX.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SWEEP INLAND AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF
THE WORKWEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS FAVORABLE TO WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAYS
READINGS...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. /KELCH
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH 06Z SAT RESULTING
IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 57 89 59 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D`ALENE 55 89 56 90 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 49 87 54 90 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 60 94 63 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 50 95 53 95 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 45 88 48 89 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 55 85 55 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 57 95 60 96 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 63 94 65 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 58 95 59 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 030415
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...CLEAR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FRIDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A
TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE RIDGE NOW NEAR 130W SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR 80S TO LOCAL LOWER 90S FRI AND AGAIN
SAT LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE FORECAST
BY ALL MODELS. GFS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE PREFERRED OVER THE
HOTTER NAM MOS THAT HAS SHOWN A 2-3 DEGREE WARM BIAS IN THESE
PATTERNS SO FAR THIS WARM SEASON.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT MARINE PUSH OR INTRUSION IS
LATE SATURDAY AS THE THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH DIGS OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE PUSH WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SOMETIME
SUNDAY AS A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SW. TSTM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATER SUN OR SUN NIGHT WITH GOOD INSTABILITY
ALOFT AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN ISSUE IS DRYNESS AND WARMTH AND ITS IMPACT ON POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
NO FORECAST UPDATES EXPECTED TONIGHT. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF
AND LINGERS OVER THE PAC NW. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT DID ADD CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS
ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. 33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FROM THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION...WITH THE CURRENT AND FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN OF A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...WESTERN WASHINGTONS VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY DRY FUELS...PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING
THIS AFTERNOON,. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS VALID FROM NOON FRIDAY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS FOR VERY WARM...VERY DRY AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. EVERY ONE NEEDS TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH
FIREWORKS AND CAMPFIRES THIS WEEKEND. ALSO...USE YOUR VEHICLES
ASHTRAY. PRANGE
&&
.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI. WLY
FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW LATE NIGHT THROUGH
MIDMORNING...AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.
.KSEA...CLEAR SKIES WITH CONTINUED NLY WINDS...STRONGEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL DRIFT BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE COAST AND E OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT
THROUGH MIDMORNING...AND WEAK ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
CONFIDENCE IN A MARINE PUSH THIS WEEKEND IS NOT VERY HIGH.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN WA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.
PZ...NONE.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
000
FXUS66 KPQR 030330
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
822 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS. THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS
THE WARM WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S FRI AND
AGAIN ON SAT. THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FRI AND
SAT WILL INCREASE THE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE MARINE
AIR WONT PENETRATE INLAND PAST THE COASTAL STRIP. THE COAST WILL BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
THOSE WANTING A REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM WEATHER. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SAT...EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING OF THE 4TH OF JULY.
MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...THE 18Z GFS RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z FOR
LOCAL IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
GRADIENT IS WEAKER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS SO WILL DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS THERE. SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT WITH
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY UNTIL THE
WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. LESS WIND AND CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC
WEAKENS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO CASCADE HEAD UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 022314
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
414 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
THEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND MILD AS A FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER
OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SW INTO EASTERN
OREGON...AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
BY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLAT RIDGE GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...ONE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPROUT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE NAM SEEMS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND UNSTABLE THAN THE
GFS...BASED ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT EVEN WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10
KTS...THIS DOESN`T SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE TO REACH THE NAM LEVELS. SO WILL DOWNPLAY THE NAM
INSTABILITY AND LEAN ON IT FOR THE LOCATION OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER FORMATION
FOR THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
CREEP NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN OREGON...AND AFFECT THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
SETS UP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE SURFACE BASED HEAT TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL BE QUITE HOT...ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL START OFF QUITE
WARM...AND THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTH AND ADVECTS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CASCADES AND THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE FUZZY...BUT ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM THE CASCADES INTO NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGREE WITH THE HANDLE OF MOISTURE
AND WINDS AS SEEN IN GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPPOSED TO THE NAM
ATTM. ANTICIPATE THE MAIN PUSH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
CASCADE VALLEYS AND WESTERN BASIN. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL HEIGHTEN CONCERNS FOR THE FIRE USERS IN THE
REGION...AND WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. /RFOX.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SWEEP INLAND AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF
THE WORKWEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS FAVORABLE TO WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAYS
READINGS...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. /KELCH
&&
.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 57 89 59 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D`ALENE 55 89 56 90 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 49 87 54 90 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 60 94 63 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 50 95 53 95 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 45 88 48 89 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 55 85 55 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 57 95 60 96 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 63 94 65 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 58 95 59 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 022228
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...COPIOUS SUNSHINE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EVERGREEN STATE
TODAY. THE AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON REMAINS CONSIDERABLY
DRY WITH NO MOISTURE IN SITE. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BUILD
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE GULF OF
ALASKA...DEFLECTING A SYSTEM ALONG 140W NORTHWARD. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY SEEING LIGHT NLY WINDS WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH
IN PLACE. WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO NWLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER INLAND. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS DOWN WITH LOWER 70S AT BOTH HOQUIAM AND QUILLAYUTE. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS
WITH WIDESPREAD 70S TO LOWER 80S SO FAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND INLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...PROLONGING THE WARM AND DRY SPELL ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RELATIVELY COOL SPOTS WILL BE THE COAST/STRAIT AND SAN JUANS
WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF
THE CASCADES. THE I-5 CORRIDOR WILL STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WEATHER FOR THE 4TH WILL LOOK QUITE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY AMPLIFY A BIT OVER WA AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG OFFSHORE. DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW MODEL PROGS STILL POINT TOWARD
WARM WEATHER FOR THE INTERIOR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY HELPING
TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. HOWEVER DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY TAP INTO SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ORE AND SPREAD IT INTO WA.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND LI NEAR ZERO. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO SEND A
VORT MAX INTO THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CASCADES.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH DRY FUELS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ELEVATED. ANY TRIGGER MAY LEAD TO DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE CWA...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. 33
.LONG TERM...A RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS IN SIGHT NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND LINGERS OVER THE PAC NW. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT DID
ADD CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH. 33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE CURRENT AND FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN OF A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...WESTERN WASHINGTONS VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY DRY FUELS...PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING
THIS AFTERNOON,. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS VALID FROM NOON FRIDAY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS FOR VERY WARM...VERY DRY AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. EVERY ONE NEEDS TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH
FIREWORKS AND CAMPFIRES THIS WEEKEND. ALSO...USE YOUR VEHICLES
ASHTRAY. PRANGE
&&
.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE...WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WASHINGTON...WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. THERMAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES
FRIDAY. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.
.KSEA...VFR. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 7-10 KT CONTINUING THROUGH 03Z
...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING NORTHEAST TO 3-5 KT THROUGH
15Z. COLMAN
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK THERMALLY-INDUCED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NORTHWEST SEA BREEZES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST BREEZES
THROUGH THE STRAIT.
EASTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ARE AT LEAST WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND STILL EXPECT
A MORE TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE LATER THIS EVENING THAN WE
SAW YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY PUSH THE CENTRAL AND EAST
STRAIT UP TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE...BUT BELOW SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS.
OTHERWISE A RATHER STABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A
GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER THE PERIOD TO A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BRUSH THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. COLMAN
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN WA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.
PZ...NONE.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
000
FXUS66 KPQR 022141
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IS THE WARM WEATHER THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 90S FRI
AND AGAIN ON SAT. THE COAST RANGE AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FRI
AND SAT WILL INCREASE THE MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE
MARINE AIR WONT PENETRATE INLAND PAST THE COASTAL STRIP. THE COAST
WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
FOR THOSE WANTING A REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM WEATHER. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SAT...EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING OF THE 4TH OF JULY.
MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...THE 18Z GFS RUN IS QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH ON SUN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL SUN EVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EXCEPT SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DEVELOPING AFTER 10Z FOR LOCAL IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY AROUND KONP.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN OREGON AND HIGH PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE.
GRADIENTS RELAX AS HIGH IN THE GULF OF AK WEAKENS SOME SO EXPECT
WINDS TO EASE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE WATERS 10 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE VERY
NEAR SHORE ZONE THIS EVENING SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL. SEAS ARE NOT TOO HIGH WITH SHORT
PERIOD LOCAL FRESH SWELL AND WIND SEAS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY
UNTIL THE WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT FOR CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SCHNEIDER
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SAT EVE FOR THE COAST RANGE...VALLEYS
AND FOOTHILLS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 022130
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
230 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
WINDS WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
THEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION WITH
COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND MILD AS A FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER
OFF THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SW INTO EASTERN
OREGON...AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
BY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLAT RIDGE GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE
PACIFIC ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...ONE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPROUT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE NAM SEEMS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE AND UNSTABLE THAN THE
GFS...BASED ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS. BUT EVEN WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10
KTS...THIS DOESN`T SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE TO REACH THE NAM LEVELS. SO WILL DOWNPLAY THE NAM
INSTABILITY AND LEAN ON IT FOR THE LOCATION OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON SHOWER FORMATION
FOR THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE
AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
CREEP NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN OREGON...AND AFFECT THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
SETS UP IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE SURFACE BASED HEAT TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL BE QUITE HOT...ANTICIPATE
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. SUNDAY WILL START OFF QUITE
WARM...AND THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTH AND ADVECTS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CASCADES AND THE COLUMBIA
BASIN. TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE FUZZY...BUT ANTICIPATE A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD FROM THE CASCADES INTO NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AGREE WITH THE HANDLE OF MOISTURE
AND WINDS SEEN GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN OPPOSED TO THE NAM ATTM.
ANTICIPATE THE MAIN PUSH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADE VALLEYS AND
WESTERN BASIN. THE RISK THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASED WINDS WILL
HEIGHTEN CONCERNS FOR THE FIRE USERS IN THE REGION...AND WILL
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. /RFOX.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SWEEP INLAND AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN A
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF
THE WORKWEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS FAVORABLE TO WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAYS
READINGS...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. /KELCH
&&
.AVIATION...
ANTICIPATE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 57 89 59 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D`ALENE 55 89 56 90 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 49 87 54 90 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 60 94 63 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 50 95 53 95 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 45 88 48 89 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 55 85 55 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 57 95 60 96 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 63 94 65 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 58 95 59 97 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KOTX 021731
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1040 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY...AND THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. THOUGH
THE WATER VAPOR LOOPER SHOWS AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX ALONG THE CNTRL
BC COAST THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN WA THIS EVENING...THE AIRMASS
IS VERY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT...RESULTING IN JUST A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF MID/HI CLOUDS TONIGHT. A MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST SOUTHERLY AIRSTREAM EXITS ACROSS NORCAL AND
OREGON ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY STNRY LOW JUST OFF THE
CALIF COAST. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS VERY SLOWLY N THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WE`RE EXPECTING THE DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING SW TO NE
BISECTING OREGON THIS MORNING TO STEADILY DRIFT NWD AND BRING WITH
IT THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN ERN WA/N ID...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOW FOR THE
FIRST TIME SHOWING SBCAPES FROM NE OREGON TO NEAR THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE OF N ID DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
WARMING OF 1 TO 4 C BELOW 700MB SHOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TODAY TO
WARMING 3-5F ABOVE WEDNESDAYS HIGHS. BZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF DIGGING OFFSHORE TROF/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN ESSENTIALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH
RATHER WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. STILL HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT FOR SNEAKY NUISANCE SMALL
SHORTWAVES THAT MAY TRY TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND SPARK CONVECTION
AS MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TWO TO FIVE DAYS AGO SEEMED TO BE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING SUCH A SCENARIO AT TIMES DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT ANY SHORTWAVE
WITH SUCH A SOLUTION FURTHER SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A SIGNIFICANT DROP DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORKWEEK AND THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED AS
THE EARLIER MENTIONED DIGGING OFFSHORE TROF/LOW INITIALLY EJECTS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN IDAHO AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING...MORE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE LOW HAVE THE
POTENTIALLY TO MOVE THROUGH IN THIS SIMILAR MANNER AS THE LAGER
TROF/LOW SAGS SOUTHEAST AND ITS COLD POOL AND CLOSED LOW FEATURE
ARE DEPICTED TO BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF EASTERN
WASHINGTON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SURE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SOLUTION AND BECOME PLACED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH THE NUISANCE SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO
ROTATE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE TROF/LOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SHOWERY/UNSETTLED FORECAST...SO OVERALL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK COOL WITH MAINLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ...SHOWERY...AND UNSETTLED WITH MENTION OF WET THUNDERSTORMS
THROWN IN AT TIMES. /PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 87 56 89 58 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D`ALENE 86 53 88 56 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 86 50 88 53 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
LEWISTON 94 59 95 62 96 63 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
COLVILLE 94 49 92 55 94 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
SANDPOINT 85 46 87 50 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 84 53 86 55 88 56 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
MOSES LAKE 93 58 95 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 92 62 95 65 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 92 56 95 58 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 021614
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY AND
FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A WEAK MARINE PUSH LATE ON THE 4TH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MARINE MOISTURE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES ARE DOMINANT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WA THIS
MORNING WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON ARE ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 60S...A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THE DRY AND STABLE PATTERN IS DUE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING OFFSHORE
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE A BIT SUPPRESSED OVER WA WITH A BROAD VORTEX SPINNING
OVER WESTERN CANADA. IN FACT THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION IS
NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 580 DAM. STILL WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE HARDEST
AREA TO FORECAST WILL BE THE COAST AS MODELS SHOW THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE PRES
GRADIENT IS NOT TOO TIGHT...THE NW FLOW WILL STILL CREATE A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH 70S RIGHT ALONG THE WATER AND 80S JUST A
FEW MILES INLAND. UPPER 70S TO MID 80S STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE I-5
CORRIDOR WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SW INTERIOR.
THE NEW 12Z GFS SHOWS THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE
CASCADES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO COOL THE COAST DOWN. THE
INTERIOR STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S...ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
THE 4TH OF JULY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KNOCK THE TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BUT
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT 80S FOR THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER...AS HIGHLIGHTED BELOW. 33
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
SOLUTION OF DIGGING THE DEVELOPING TROUGH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
HANGING ONTO THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION A BIT LONGER. THE OVERALL
RESULT WOULD BE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT COOLING. BOOSTED
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A RESULT AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE NON-EXISTENT THAT MORNING AND KICK IN SLOWLY
THROUGH THE DAY. SO THE MAIN COOLING PUSH WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL AWAKING TO A COOLER AND CLOUDIER MONDAY
MORNING.
THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY. CONCERN LIES IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CASCADES. THIS WOULD
BE AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WHICH WOULD JUST
ADD TO WHAT IS DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BEYOND THAT (MONDAY ONWARD)...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A COOL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND KICK THE HUMIDITIES BACK UP. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WHERE...WHEN
AND HOW MUCH IS HONESTLY UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT.
OVERALL...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LESS OF A
CHANCE OVER THE LOWLANDS...BUT THREAT IS 30% OR LESS AT ANY POINT IN
TIME. CERNIGLIA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE NEAR OR
A BIT ABOVE CRITICAL DRYNESS LEVELS AND A MAJORITY OF THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE THERE BY THE WEEKEND. NOT ONLY WILL IT BE
VERY WARM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABNORMALLY LOW WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN THE
FUEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EACH OF THE NEXT THREE AFTERNOONS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID FIRE SPREAD. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CASCADES FOR SUNDAY. RELIEF FROM THE
WARM AND DRY AIR WILL NOT COME IN FORCE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE FINE
FUELS. CERNIGLIA
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WASHINGTON TODAY. AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED
OFFSHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A WEAK THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH NEAR
THE COAST. THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.
.KSEA...VFR. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 7-10 KT CONTINUING THROUGH 03Z
...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING NORTHEAST TO 3-5 KT THROUGH
15Z. COLMAN
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY BUT WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
LATER TODAY THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE STRAIT
UP TO OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT SPEEDS. FOR NOW WILL EDGE THE CENTRAL AND
EAST STRAIT UP TO 10 TO 20 KT.
OTHERWISE A RATHER STABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A
GRADUAL TRANSITION OVER THE PERIOD TO A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLMAN
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
000
FXUS66 KPQR 021554
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
855 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS WE GO
INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RUNNING
ABOUT 2 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 12Z SLE SOUNDING
ALSO SHOWED ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMING AROUND 900 MB. THE THERMAL
TROUGH BUILDS UP THROUGH WESTERN OREGON TODAY AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. EXPECT INLAND TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
INTO THE MID 90S TODAY. FRI AND SAT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM AS
WELL WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. WEAK ONSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL RESULT AN INCREASE IN MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND IT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON SUN AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONVECTIVE THREAT TO THE CASCADES
SUN...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WE BEGIN THE
NEW WORK WEEK. TW
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF STRATUS NEAR KONP SHOULD BURN OFF BY 16Z OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS LAND HEATS UP TODAY
FOR A LITTLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
GRADIENTS WILL RELAX TONIGHT THEN WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR 7 TO 9 FT THOUGH
PERIODS ARE NEAR 8 SECONDS AND WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY SEAS.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRI EVE FOR THE COAST RANGE...VALLEYS
AND FOOTHILLS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 021238
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
538 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY...AND THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. THOUGH
THE WATER VAPOR LOOPER SHOWS AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX ALONG THE CNTRL
BC COAST THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN WA THIS EVENING...THE AIRMASS
IS VERY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT...RESULTING IN JUST A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF MID/HI CLOUDS TONIGHT. A MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST SOUTHERLY AIRSTREAM EXITS ACROSS NORCAL AND
OREGON ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY STNRY LOW JUST OFF THE
CALIF COAST. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS VERY SLOWLY N THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WE`RE EXPECTING THE DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING SW TO NE
BISECTING OREGON THIS MORNING TO STEADILY DRIFT NWD AND BRING WITH
IT THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN ERN WA/N ID...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOW FOR THE
FIRST TIME SHOWING SBCAPES FROM NE OREGON TO NEAR THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE OF N ID DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
WARMING OF 1 TO 4 C BELOW 700MB SHOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TODAY TO
WARMING 3-5F ABOVE WEDNESDAYS HIGHS. BZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF DIGGING OFFSHORE TROF/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN ESSENTIALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH
RATHER WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. STILL HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT FOR SNEAKY NUISANCE SMALL
SHORTWAVES THAT MAY TRY TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND SPARK CONVECTION
AS MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TWO TO FIVE DAYS AGO SEEMED TO BE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING SUCH A SCENARIO AT TIMES DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT ANY SHORTWAVE
WITH SUCH A SOLUTION FURTHER SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A SIGNIFICANT DROP DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORKWEEK AND THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED AS
THE EARLIER MENTIONED DIGGING OFFSHORE TROF/LOW INITIALLY EJECTS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN IDAHO AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING...MORE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE LOW HAVE THE
POTENTIALLY TO MOVE THROUGH IN THIS SIMILAR MANNER AS THE LAGER
TROF/LOW SAGS SOUTHEAST AND ITS COLD POOL AND CLOSED LOW FEATURE
ARE DEPICTED TO BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF EASTERN
WASHINGTON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SURE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SOLUTION AND BECOME PLACED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH THE NUISANCE SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO
ROTATE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE TROF/LOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SHOWERY/UNSETTLED FORECAST...SO OVERALL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK COOL WITH MAINLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ...SHOWERY...AND UNSETTLED WITH MENTION OF WET THUNDERSTORMS
THROWN IN AT TIMES. /PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 3RD/06Z BRINGING CONTINUED
CLEAR SKIES...VFR CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.BZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 87 56 89 58 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D`ALENE 86 53 88 56 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 86 50 88 53 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
LEWISTON 94 59 95 62 96 63 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
COLVILLE 94 49 92 55 94 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
SANDPOINT 85 46 87 50 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 84 53 86 55 88 56 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
MOSES LAKE 93 58 95 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 92 62 95 65 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 92 56 95 58 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 021008
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BY
FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A WEAK MARINE PUSH LATE ON THE 4TH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MARINE MOISTURE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...CONTINUED SUNNY AND GETTING WARMER. THAT IS THE BASIC
IDEA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HIGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WITH OFFSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND COMBINE TO
RAISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS HOW WARM
WILL IT GET. LOCAL IN HOUSE TOOL COMES UP WITH 7 DEGREES WARMER (AT
SEATAC) TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE CURRENT ONSITE PROFILER
HAS TEMPERATURES THROUGH 2000 FEET ABOUT 3 DEG C WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. SO BASIC THOUGHT OF SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TODAY IS GOOD.
WILL LET PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST SIT AS EACH OF THE 1.4
MILLION PIXELS WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO.
FOR FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL (AROUND 925 MB) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT ANOTHER 1.5 DEG C WARMER THAN TODAY FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 3
DEGREES WARMING (DEG F) AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL SEE PLENTY OF
80S...WITH A FEW 90S NORMALLY HOTTER LOCATIONS AND PLENTY OF 90S IN
THE HOTTER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY HAVE A MILDER START TO THE
DAY AS WELL WITH WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...THIS DAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO FORECAST TEMP WISE.
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR IS ACTUALLY A TOUCH WARMER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON VS FRIDAY AFTERNOON (IN THE MODEL WORLD) OVER THE
INTERIOR WHILE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT EXPECTING A STRONG
PUSH AT ALL THAT EVENING AS UPPER LOW DIGS WELL OFFSHORE LEAVING A
SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. THUS...WITH THE LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
STRAIT WHILE MID 80S STILL A GOOD BET INTERIOR AREAS FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUND SOUTHWARD. THE CASCADE VALLEYS WILL STILL HAVE A FEW
90+ DEGREE HIGH FOR GOOD MEASURE. IT COULD VERY EASILY BE WARMER
THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST BUT WILL LEAVE THAT AS IS FOR NOW.
CERNIGLIA
.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A SOLUTION OF DIGGING
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HANGING ONTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE REGION A BIT LONGER. THE OVERALL RESULT WOULD BE TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT COOLING. BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A RESULT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
NON-EXISTENT THAT MORNING AND KICK IN SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. SO
THE MAIN COOLING PUSH WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL
AWAKING TO A COOLER AND CLOUDIER MONDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SETUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT SUNDAY. CONCERN LIES IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CASCADES. THIS WOULD
BE AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WHICH WOULD JUST
ADD TO WHAT IS DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BEYOND THAT (MONDAY ONWARD)...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A COOL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS AND KICK THE HUMIDITIES BACK UP. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WHERE...WHEN
AND HOW MUCH IS HONESTLY UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT.
OVERALL...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LESS OF A
CHANCE OVER THE LOWLANDS...BUT THREAT IS 30% OR LESS AT ANY POINT IN
TIME. CERNIGLIA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON ARE NEAR OR
A BIT ABOVE CRITICAL DRYNESS LEVELS AND A MAJORITY OF THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE THERE BY THE WEEKEND. NOT ONLY WILL IT BE
VERY WARM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABNORMALLY LOW WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL ONLY WORSEN THE
FUEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EACH OF THE NEXT THREE AFTERNOONS WHERE
MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID FIRE SPREAD. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CASCADES FOR SUNDAY. RELIEF FROM THE
WARM AND DRY AIR WILL NOT COME IN FORCE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE FINE
FUELS. CERNIGLIA
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER WASHINGTON TODAY. AIR MASS IS DRY AND STABLE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT NORTHERLY WITH SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST.
.KSEA...VFR. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN WEAK OFFSHORE AND
WEAK ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS A RESULT...NO LARGE SCALE
AREAS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND WATERS NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS EACH
OF THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND...FOR STRONGER WESTERLIES THROUGH THE STRAIT. 27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
000
FXUS66 KOTX 020938
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
238 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY...AND THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. THOUGH
THE WATER VAPOR LOOPER SHOWS AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX ALONG THE CNTRL
BC COAST THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN WA THIS EVENING...THE AIRMASS
IS VERY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT...RESULTING IN JUST A SMALL INCREASE
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF MID/HI CLOUDS TONIGHT. A MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST SOUTHERLY AIRSTREAM EXITS ACROSS NORCAL AND
OREGON ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY STNRY LOW JUST OFF THE
CALIF COAST. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS VERY SLOWLY N THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WE`RE EXPECTING THE DEFORMATION AXIS STRETCHING SW TO NE
BISECTING OREGON THIS MORNING TO STEADILY DRIFT NWD AND BRING
WITH IT THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ERN WA/N ID...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOW FOR
THE FIRST TIME SHOWING SBCAPES FROM NE OREGON TO NEAR THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE OF N ID DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL REMAIN CAPPED.
WARMING OF 1 TO 4 C BELOW 700MB SHOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TODAY TO
WARMING 3-5F ABOVE WEDNESDAYS HIGHS. BZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF DIGGING OFFSHORE TROF/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN ESSENTIALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH
RATHER WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. STILL HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT FOR SNEAKY NUISANCE SMALL
SHORTWAVES THAT MAY TRY TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND SPARK CONVECTION
AS MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TWO TO FIVE DAYS AGO SEEMED TO BE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING SUCH A SCENARIO AT TIMES DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT ANY SHORTWAVE
WITH SUCH A SOLUTION FURTHER SOUTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A SIGNIFICANT DROP DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORKWEEK AND THE FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE SHOWERY AND UNSETTLED AS
THE EARLIER MENTIONED DIGGING OFFSHORE TROF/LOW INITIALLY EJECTS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN IDAHO AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING...MORE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE LOW HAVE THE
POTENTIALLY TO MOVE THROUGH IN THIS SIMILAR MANNER AS THE LAGER
TROF/LOW SAGS SOUTHEAST AND ITS COLD POOL AND CLOSED LOW FEATURE
ARE DEPICTED TO BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF EASTERN
WASHINGTON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SURE TO ACCOMPANY THIS SOLUTION AND BECOME PLACED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH THE NUISANCE SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO
ROTATE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE TROF/LOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SHOWERY/UNSETTLED FORECAST...SO OVERALL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK COOL WITH MAINLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS ...SHOWERY...AND UNSETTLED WITH MENTION OF WET THUNDERSTORMS
THROWN IN AT TIMES. /PELATTI
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 3RD/06Z BRINGING CONTINUED
CLEAR SKIES...VFR CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 87 56 89 58 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D`ALENE 86 53 88 56 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 86 50 88 53 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
LEWISTON 94 59 95 62 96 63 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
COLVILLE 94 49 92 55 94 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
SANDPOINT 85 46 87 50 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
KELLOGG 84 53 86 55 88 56 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
MOSES LAKE 93 58 95 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 92 62 95 65 97 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 92 56 95 58 97 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KPQR 020933
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
WARM UPPER RIDGE HOLDING INTO SUNDAY OR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS UP THROUGH WESTERN OREGON TODAY AND THIS
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE INTERIOR. WEAKLY ONSHORE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASE IN MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST. HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE TODAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND IT INTO THE 4TH
LATER.
MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING IT WAY NORTHWARD
OVER THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STARMER
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUN AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CONVECTIVE THREAT TO THE CASCADES SUN...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TW
&&
.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES
WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN CURRENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER SW OREGON
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY N WINDS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL HOVER NEAR 7 TO 9 FT
THOUGH PERIODS ARE NEAR 7 SECONDS AND WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY SEAS.
THERMAL LOW SHIFTS INLAND ON FRI...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR FRI AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 6 PM TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KOTX 020513
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1013 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY...AND THE WARM WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD-FREE
INLAND NORTHWEST WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING TEMPERATURES
FROM 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS READINGS. THE MORNING OTX RAOB
REVEALS A PWAT VALUE OF 0.18 INCHES WHICH IS ONE THIRD
NORMAL...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND CONTINUE IN RESIDENCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM THE UPPER TEENS
WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 23C BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
LOWER BASIN BREAKING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. A NORTHERLY GRADIENT
WILL FUNNEL SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWN THE OKANOGAN VALLEY OVERNIGHT
BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THAT WOULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY KEEP ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY EVENING IF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES IT THAT FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS SO
FAR THIS SEASON LIKELY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE 90S WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS. /KELCH
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GLOBAL EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY TREND SLIGHTLY CLOSER WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM THE LATE
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL
BREAKDOWN OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A
TRANSITION TO A MORE TROUGHY PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE DIFFERENCES COME ABOUT AMONGST THE SOLUTIONS WHEN CONSIDERING
WHAT OCCURS IN THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROUGH WITH REGARD
TO A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY SOUTHERLY SHORT WAVE
INFLUENCE AS THE RIDGE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD.
BY SUNDAY THE ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY MOVED AHEAD OF THE GFS SOLUTION
IN BRINGING HEIGHT FALLS TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS IS THE EXACT
OPPOSITE TREND THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...WHERE THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
QUICKER. THAT SAID...IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE OFF
SHORE MID-LEVEL LOW...THE GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL/ECMWF ALL HAVE A
DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT ADVANCES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SEEMS TO
BE THE WAVE ALL OF THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THROUGH WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...THIS IS THE FEATURE AND BOUNDARY
COMBINATION UPON WHICH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HINGES. THE GFS PASSES THE BOUNDARY LARGELY OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY VIS-A-VIS
MODESTLY NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH PORTRAY A BIT
LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THOUGH NEITHER MODEL REALLY
GENERATES MUCH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EXCEPT AROUND THE FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO PULL MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM WORDING
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON ALTOGETHER FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MORE THAN CENTRAL WASHINGTON...SO POPS
AND THUNDER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD IN THOSE LOCALES.
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD SUNDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES UNDER A
DECENT MIXING PROFILE REACH THE MID 20S CELSIUS ON THE ECMWF AND
JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE GFS/DGEX. THE NET RESULT LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90F+ TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. AFTER THIS
TIME...850 MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALL OFF THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...NO TRULY ABRUPT FALL IS EVIDENT ON THE GFS NOR IN THE
GEFS MEAN. THE REASON FOR THIS IS LIKELY THE SLOWING OF FORWARD
PROGRESS WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE OFF SHORE TROUGH INTO THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. THIS TREND HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN THE
ECMWF...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL LIKELY MEAN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...FOR THE TIME BEING A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET...SO
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLED TO NORMAL OR JUST BELOW BY MID-WEEK.
/FRIES
&&
.AVIATION...
A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 3RD/06Z BRINGING CONTINUED
CLEAR SKIES...VFR CONDITIONS...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 52 86 56 89 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D`ALENE 50 86 53 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
PULLMAN 46 86 50 88 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
LEWISTON 54 93 59 95 62 96 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
COLVILLE 47 90 49 92 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 44 85 46 87 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
KELLOGG 49 84 53 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
MOSES LAKE 54 92 58 95 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 57 91 62 95 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 55 92 56 95 58 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSEW 020405
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A MARINE PUSH ON THE 4TH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MARINE
MOISTURE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY
AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE 4TH. THE MAIN PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
500 MB RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 138W WHILE A STRONG 1032 MB
SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST W OF THE CHARLOTTES. IN THE NW FLOW...COOL
AIR FROM SE ALASKA AND ASSOCIATED WITH A 560 DAM UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN ALBERTA IS SAGGING SE. 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND SEATTLE TODAY
TOPPED OUT AROUND 580 DAM. WITH THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
GRADIENTS THIS TRANSLATED WELL TO OUR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
TODAY. THE LATEST NAM12 LOWERS 500 MB HEIGHTS A BIT ON THURSDAY
WHILE LOW LEVEL NWLY FLOW CONTINUES. WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENTS...IT IS HARD TO SEE IT WARMING UP A
GREAT DEAL ON THU IN THE INTERIOR. CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AREA...AND A FEW LOWER 90S FOR AREAS
AGAINST THE CASCADES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR APPEAR
AGGRESSIVELY TOO WARM AT FIRST GLANCE. THE RAW NAM12 AND MM5 SURFACE
PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK 3-4 DEG BELOW
CURRENT FORECASTS IN THE INTERIOR. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE OFF THE
THE 00Z NAM12 AND LOCAL TOOLS BASED ON PRES GRADIENT CHANGES WOULD
SUGGEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES WHERE THEY ARE. GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCIES...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE CALL AFTER
LOOKING AT THE LATER ARRIVING GFS AND MM5GFS GUIDANCE.
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRI...AND FRI
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AS CLEAR
SKIES...STRONG INSOLATION...AND SUBSIDENCE COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR
MAXIMUM HEATING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH SOME 90S MAINLY TACOMA SOUTHWARD. SOME INFLOW OF
MARINE AIR LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE COAST AND GAPS FRI NIGHT...BUT THE
MAIN MARINE PUSH APPEARS THAT IT WILL OCCUR LATER SAT AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND A
RATHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
NO PUBIC FORECAST CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG OFF THE COAST SUN BUT MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS. DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT MAY SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
PEAK HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CASCADES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF AND MEANDER INLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. 33
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO DOMINATE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THURSDAY. EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE DRY...IN
THE 30S TO MID 40S. NWLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND
WILL PICK UP AGAIN THU AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER HEATING OVER THE SW
INTERIOR. HOWEVER SURFACE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 2-5 KT LIGHTER
THU AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
.KSEA...NORTH WINDS 8-12 KT...BECOMING NORTHEAST 4-8 KT SHORTLY
AFTER 06Z THEN RESUMING A NW WIND 8-12 KT AFTER 21Z THU. ALBRECHT
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST W OF THE
CHARLOTTES. THIS HIGH IS COMBINING WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TO
THE SE TO GIVE MODERATE NWLY FLOW TO THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH STRONGEST FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THERMAL INDUCED TROUGHING WILL DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF OREGON WILL GENERALLY SLIDE NE INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON THU INTO EARLY FRI...BUT A WEAK THERMALLY
INDUCED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FRI FROM THE CASCADES NW ALONG VANCOUVER
ISLAND.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NW WIND TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. THE SURGE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NWLY WINDS MOVING
DOWN THE STRAITS OF GEORGIA TOWARD THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS HAS
BEEN WEAKER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
DROPPED THERE.
EXPECT N/NW FLOW TO BE A FEW KNOTS LIGHTER THU THAN TODAY AND
POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A W TO SW MARINE PUSH WILL DEVELOP LATER FRI OR SAT AND SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ALBRECHT
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS.
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
000
FXUS66 KPQR 020354
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
853 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR AS WE GO INTO THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND FOR A SLOW COOL DOWN AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST EVENING. THE PRIMARY WEATHER
MESSAGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY RISE
TO AROUND 18 TO 20C...SUPPORTING INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S.
A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS EXPECTED ON FRI...BUT PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURS
AND FRI. MODELS INDICATE A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALONG
COASTAL AREA ON FRI...BUT NO PENETRATION INLAND...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WARM TEMPS INLAND ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 ONCE AGAIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST ON SUNDAY TO BEGIN A COOL
DOWN.
THE COAST WILL BE A GREAT PLACE FOR THOSE WANTING A BREAK FROM THE
HEAT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...BUT BREEZY WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S ON THE NORTH COAST AND 60S ON THE CENTRAL
COAST.
MOST CONVECTIVE THREATS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB OVER NW
OREGON/SW WASHINGTON.
.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON SUN AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CONVECTIVE THREAT TO THE CASCADES SUN...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TW
&&
.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES
WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN CURRENT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WITH THERMAL LOW PRES OVER SW OREGON
WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY N WINDS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THU. SHOULD
HAVE A LULL IN WINDS NEARSHORE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT AGAIN BY DAYBREAK THU. SEAS WILL ALSO STAY UP AROUND
9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERMAL LOW SHIFTS
INLAND ON FRI...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR FRI
AND THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE THROUGH THU.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE UNTIL 3 AM THU.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
| 
