000
FXUS63 KGRB 040924
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
424 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE
MINOR PCPN CHCS...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES.

WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE ELUSIVE ISOLD SHOWER THREAT (REAL
OR IMAGINED) AGAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS NEAR MDZ/AUW EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SAGGED INTO CNTRL WI AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. ALTHOUGH RADAR
SHOWS THAT THE INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED...MODELS
HINT THAT ISOLD CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES OVER
500 J/KG NEAR OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
ADD A SMALL POP FOR SHRA/TSRA THERE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WITH NORTHERN WI
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. DEEP MIXING THROUGH 800-750 MB SUPPORTS
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LKSHR READINGS COOLER.

IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP OVER C/EC WI THIS
AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THE EVG FIREWORKS
SHOWS COMMENCE. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF NICELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
N WI...WHERE A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THAT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.

ON SUNDAY...A S/W TROF WILL CLIP N WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH THE LFQ OF A 90 KNOT JET. HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL POPS FOR
FAR NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...
THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDE INTO WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR BOTH PERIODS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.

THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...PROBABLY HIGHER
THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED. CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION
COULD PREVENT US FROM REACHING THE 90S. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST
AS IS SINCE MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION
THURSDAY. LOOKING AT THE 00Z GFS...VERY WARM AIR SHOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM +11C TO +13 C TO INHIBIT ANY
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS CAN FINE TUNE THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...AND HOW THE LATEST TRENDS WILL AFFECT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING +20 C 850MB AIR WILL WORK
INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF WE COULD MIX TO 850MB...
TEMPERATURES WOULD CLIMB ABOVE 90. LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDING...
LATEST RUNS WOULD SUGGEST WE WOULD MIX TO ABOUT 875 MB.

YESTERDAY...FRIDAY WAS LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION COULD
HAMPER HOW WARM WE WILL GET. PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW
SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.
&&

.AVIATION...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER NC WI
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
SAG SOUTH AND GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. IF ENOUGH HEATING
OCCURS...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SFC TROF OVER
C/EC WI THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF PCPN IN THE 12Z TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG

000
FXUS63 KMKX 040836
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN SHOWER CHANCES TODAY...QUIET WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE BEST
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE STAY WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRY TO
MOISTEN UP THE AIR COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WOULD BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT. TO THE
NORTHEAST...DROPPED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AS AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND
EAST.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SOME SCATTERING
OUT OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL NEAR THE
LAKE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MET
AND MAV TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH AXIS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. PREFERRED NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY WEAK CAPE WITH
MODEST MOISTURE...SO KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LAKE
BREEZES AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 1000/500MB
THICKNESSES RISING INTO THE MID 570S DKM RANGE. THIS WOULD BRING
WARMER AND PERHAPS MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING INITIAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BROUGHT LOW POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...AND KEPT
POPS AS IS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE EWD TNT AND
SUN. THUS SRN WI WILL BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NRN IA EARLY THIS AM ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT FAR SRN WI...SOUTH OF KMSN...KMKE...AND KENW. SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE STILL FCST FOR THE TAF SITES BUT ANY PCPN THAT
DOES OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND BRIEF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. CLEARING SKIES TNT AND LGT WINDS MAY RESULT IN LOCAL
RADIATIONAL LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...20/GEHRING

000
FXUS63 KARX 040745
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
245 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THEN...SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
CONTINENTAL U.S. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 320K SURFACE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL U.S. PER LATEST RUC.

THE 04.00Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. VERY SETTLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 04.00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM
IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THOUGH...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WEAK
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE
IMPULSES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. BOTH THE 04.00Z
GFS AND NAM INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. WITH BEST LIFT AND
FORCING OVER SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...HAVE LEFT HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATING VERY LITTLE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH
18Z ACROSS FORECAST AREA...WITH 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF LESS THAN
200 J/KG. AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS...INSTABILITY INCREASES AFTER 18Z
TO NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE 0-6KM LAYER OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. LOCAL
04.00Z WRF MODELS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/NAM INDICATING SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK QG FORCING AT THE 500-
300MB LAYER. WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z.

MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SASKATCHEWAN DIGS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER NORTHEASTERN U.S. SUNDAY AND ALLOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH THE
04.00Z GFS AND NAM ARE INDICATING WEAK IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
STRONGEST IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. BOTH MODELS
ARE INDICATING INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. MODELS ARE INDICATING IMPULSES
MOVING ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT...WITH DAYTIME HEATING CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH...DUE TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY. THE 04.00Z
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH...BOTH MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TOPPING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN
ECMWF. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCE OUT AND LET
LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE. BOTH THE 04.00Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DECENT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE FORECAST AREA NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. PREVIOUS HAS GOOD HANDLE AND WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN
THREAT TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MORE OF A
SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEVELOPING. EXPECT
SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
KRST BEFORE ENDING. SHOULD REMAIN VFR VSBYS IN THIS RAIN...BUT
UPSTREAM OBS HINTING AT SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE STEADIER RAIN BANDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE RAIN BANDS APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH...AND MAY UPDATE/TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR CIGS IF THEY BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...SOME
PATCHY SUN WORKING ON A MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY FIRE SOME
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS AT EITHER TAF SITE...AND MAY INTRODUCE A VCSH
OR CB QUALIFIER TO HANDLE THIS. MOST HI-RES RUC/WRF MODEL RUNS
HINTING AT THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD DIE OFF PAST 00Z
THIS EVENING AS SUNSET APPROACHES. OVERNIGHT LOOKS VFR BUT MAY NEED
TO WATCH FOR SOME VALLEY FOG AT KLSE WITH LIGHT FLOW AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION..........BINAU

000
FXUS63 KGRB 032024
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD
FIZZLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL COVER ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NEBRASKA TO MISSOURI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES FROM A MIDDLE DECK OF CLOUDS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SAT NGT THRU NXT FRI. A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED FLOW WL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE CONUS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK WITHI UPR TROFS
OVR THE WEST COAST AND NE CONUS...AND AN EWD MOVG UPR RDG OVR THE
CNTRL CONUS. AFTER MID-WEEK...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RDG WL ENCOMPASS
AREAS FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
PATN SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS TO NE WI WITH INCREASING PCPN CHS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SFC WAVE ON THE FNTL BNDRY WL PULL THE BNDRY FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
THE TN VALLEY SAT NGT...LEAVING NE WI IN A DRY NW FLOW. THIS INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WITH WNDS EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY LGT...TEMPS WL DROP AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR COOL 40S IN
THE NORTH WITH 50S CNTRL AND EAST. AN UPR LVL LOW PRES SYSTEM IS
FCST TO MOV SE ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. SHEARED
SHRTWVS ON THE WRN FLANK OF THIS UPR LOW WL COME DANGEROUSLY CLOSE
TO FAR NE WI DURING THE DAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A STRAY SHWR OR A FEW SPRINKLES CLIP AREAS EAST
OF AN IMT-SUE LINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES TO
THIS PART OF THE FCST AREA ESP WITH ANY POTENTIAL LAKE OF BAY
BREEZES IN THE VCNTY OF THE PASSING SHRTWV. ENUF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH READINGS
IN THE 75 TO 80 DEG RANGE.

PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWVS...THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPR LOW AND LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING WOULD KEEP THE ATM RELATIVELY STABLE OVR NE WI
SUNDAY NGT. MDLS SEND A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST
AS WELL...THUS DO NOT SEE ANY TRIGGER FOR PCPN. MIN TEMPS COULD BE
RATHER COOL AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLR TO
PARTLY CLDY SKIES. WRN UPR TROF JUST GETTING INTO THE PAC NW ON
MON WHILE A CLOSED UPR LOW HEADS TOWARD UPSTATE NY. NW MEAN FLOW
STILL OVR THE WRN GREAT LKS WITH A WEAK SFC HI PRES IN THE VCNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE BLO
NORMAL ESP OVR THE NE HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

AS THE WRN U.S. UPR TROF GETS BETTER ESTABLISHED...THE UPR RDG WL
GET SHOVED FARTHER EAST AND REACH THE PLAINS ON TUE. THERE IS SOME
MDL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITIONING OF THE SFC HI. THE GFS/UKMET
ARE FARTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE...THUS A RETURN FLOW ALREADY
UNDERWAY WITH A NWD MOVG WRMFNT. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE HI
PRES CLOSER TO WI...THEREBY KEEPING THE ISEN LIFT/WAA FARTHER WEST
AND THE WRMFNT WELL SOUTH. BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE MEAN FLOW IS
STILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED...PREFER THE LATTER (SLOWER) MDL SOLN.
THIS WOULD KEEP NE WI WITH A DRY NE WND ON TUE WITH NO PCPN.

THE UPR RDG REACHES THE UPR MIDWEST ON WED WITH A RETURN FLOW
STARTING UP OVR WI. THE WRMFNT SHOULD MAKE ITS MOV NORTH AT THIS
TIME...THUS PCPN CHCS COME INTO PLAY. BASED ON WHERE THE LOW-LVL
JET WL BE LOCATED (UPR MIDWEST)...ANTICIPATE BETTER RAIN CHCS TO
OUR WEST. HAVE ADDED A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE WRN SECTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA AND KEPT THE EAST DRY. MAX TEMPS BY WED SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THE MDLS INDICATE THAT THE UPR
RDG WOULD BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT AS A PIECE OF SHRTWV ENERGY FROM
THE WRN CONUS TROF MOVS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THIS ENERGY
IS PROGGED TO DRAG A CDFNT INTO THE UPR MIDWEST THU AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LKS NXT FRI. INCREASING MSTR AND INSTABILITY...COMBINED
WITH LIFT/CONVERGENCE FROM THE CDFNT...WL BRING A BETTER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS TO NE WI ESP DURING THE THU NGT/FRI TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AT ISW/STE/Y50/PCZ/OSH LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
RDM/KALLAS

000
FXUS63 KARX 032004
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
304 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES SUN/MON AFTERNOONS.

DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A BROAD BUT WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM MAN TO IL AND TN. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CO
WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS KS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED VARIOUS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SD/WY/NEB MOVING EAST TOWARD THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED WIDESPREAD -RA/-SHRA ACROSS SD AND NEARBY
AREAS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES...UNDER FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 300MB JET AND IN 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE. TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL UNDER THE ADVANCING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED WITH 03.12Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZATIONS...WITH
MODELS PRESENTING RATHER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT. NAM/GFS GENERALLY GET GOOD SUPPORT FROM LOCAL/REGIONAL WRF
MODELS AND NON-NCEP GUIDANCE. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 03.12Z
SHOWED NAM/GFS/ECMWF RUNS OF 01.12Z AND 02.12Z VERIFIED QUITE WELL
ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO ECMWF.
THRU 36HRS TREND FAVORS MORE RIDGING OVER WESTERN NOAM. FOR 36-60HRS
TREND CONTINUES TO FAVORS THE STRONGER RIDGING OVER WESTERN NOAM...
AND MORE OF A TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
FOR 60-84HRS MODELS TREND TOWARD CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION OF
EARLIER RUNS...WITH A TREND TOWARD STRONGER TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS...WHICH SETS THE AREA UP FOR MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. CHECK OF OBS VS.
MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED NAM/GFS REASONABLE WITH SFC MASS FIELDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. PER WV IMAGERY DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH OF
GFS OR NAM HAS BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES. BASED ON
RADAR IMAGERY LOOP...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE NOD TO NAM WITH WAVES WEST
OF KFSD AND KOMA. BOTH NAM/GFS REASONABLE WITH 12Z-18Z PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH MODELS HAVING CONVERGED TOWARD A
COMMON SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT/SAT...LITTLE GAINED BY FAVORING ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC RUN AND AGAIN PREFERRED A MODEL BLEND/COMPROMISE.
SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...AFTER SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OF SHIFTING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/STRONGER FORCING/LIFT NORTHWARD...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH
A BIT AND SETTLED ON TAKING THIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IA.
BULK OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY USED HERE
WITH HEAVIER RAINS REMAINING SOUTH/WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PW
VALUES OVER THE AREA STILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE
TONIGHT. SOME 700-500MB FN CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH PV ADVECTION
WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW/DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT JET OVER LK SUPERIOR PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WITH A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN ALL MODELS AND HIGH
PROBABILITIES IN SREF DATA SET...RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DID LEAVE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA...BUT THIS MAY END UP OVERDONE
BASED ON LACK OF THUNDER NORTH OF I-80 SO FAR TODAY. WEAK FORCING/
LIFT AND HIGHER PW VALUES LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO SAT AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND FOR SAT EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING -SHRA OUT OF THE
AREA BY 00Z SUN. WEAK SFC-850MB TROUGH WITH THE 500MB TROUGH
DROPPING THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON. NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SOME 850MB
WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH
MOST UNSTABLE /MU/ CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AT 00Z MON. MAY YET NEED A
SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE FOR SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY SUN EVENING. LEFT
THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. GFS WANTS TO LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE
AREA MON AFTERNOON...WITH SOME 850MB WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND MU CAPES ABOVE 1K J/KG. GFS ALONE DOING THIS WITH
NAM/ECMWF HOLDING A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN GFS SIGNAL...LEFT MON AFTERNOON/EVENING DRY FOR
NOW AS WELL.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY SAT AFTERNOON...DID TREND TOWARD
WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS ON SAT...OTHERWISE GUIDANCE TEMPS QUITE
SIMILAR THRU THE PERIOD AND TRENDED TOWARD A MODEL BLEND.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

03.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION IN THE
DAY 4-7 PERIOD AS TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NOAM. MODELS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS FOR TUE-FRI WITH
NO CLEAR FAVORITE FOR BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS/MESO-SCALE FEATURES AND POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER BY LATER NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...
LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WEST OF THE AREA TUE...OVER THE AREA WED...THEN EAST OF THE AREA
THU/FRI AS A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUE WITH MAIN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E AXIS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. SFC
HIGHS SHIFTS EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE ENERGY EJECTING
OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WED THRU FRI AS A LOW/
TROUGH/FRONT PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING IN THE STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E AXIS WEST/NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE
NIGHT INTO FRI. CORFIDI VECTORS UNDER/EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
POINT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. THUS IF ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN WOULD SNEAK THRU THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IT WOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR WED THRU
THU...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. CHANCE POPS LOOK
GOOD FOR THU NIGHT/FRI WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA
AND A WARM...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. FOR NOW FAVORED A BLEND OF GFS
MEX/ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE PERIOD...
THOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE...WARMER GFS MEX-MOS HIGHS MAY BE BETTER
FOR WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

CONCERN FOR AVIATION CONTINUES TO BE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND ITS AFFECT
ON THE KLSE/KRST TAF SITES. LATEST MODELS SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT ONGOING AREA OF RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER EASTERN SD/WESTERN
MN WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. MODELS
THEN SHOW A HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER MATERIALIZING
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA AFTER 04.06Z WITH LIGHTER RAIN/ISOLATED
THUNDER NORTH OF THIS INTO THE TAF SITES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
VCSH/CB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KRST AND AT KLSE EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHEN RELATIVELY HEAVIER RAINFALL MATERIALIZES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...CIG/VIS WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO MVFR FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOST OF THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SITES AFTER 04.15Z...SO WENT BACK TO VCSH/VFR
CONDITIONS BEYOND THAT POINT IN TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS
AVIATION..........DAS

000
FXUS63 KMKX 031946
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

DIFFICULT PRECIP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH RESPECT
TO POP GRADIENT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA.

RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS FLATTENING OUT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER WY TRACKS ACROSS SDKTA AND VEERS SE TOWARD THE CORNER OF
WI/IL/IA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS
A WEAK SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS
NRN MO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE H8 LLV JET INCREASES TO
NEARLY 50 KTS OVR MO INTO WRN IL AND AS A RESULT THE MODELS
GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF QPF WITH AN MCS THAT ROLLS ACROSS SE NEB
AND SRN IA....ALONG AND N OF THE SFC WMFNT/NOSE OF THE JET. WHAT I
AM STRUGGLING WITH IS THE LARGE NRN EXTENT OF THE QPF THAT
STRETCHES INTO CENTRAL WI. THERE IS SOME ELONGATED TROFING NORTH
OF THE SFC LOW THAT STRETCHES INTO WI...BUT ALL THE GOOD DEEPER DYNAMIC
FORCING IS SOUTH. FRONTOGENESIS STRIKES THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA
AT H7...BUT LOCATES WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA BELOW H7. H7-H5 OMEGA
FOCUSES SOUTH. ISENTROPICALLY...THE BEST LIFT IS SOUTH WITH
CONDESATION PRESSURE DEFICITS STRUGGLING TO REACH SATURATION
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE AIR IS STILL FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NRN CWA. THE QPF FIELDS WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AND FOCUS MORE
SOUTH IN THE END. THE PERIMETER SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE MCS WILL
LIKELY HELP TO SUPPRESS SUCH A NORTHERN REACH OF QPF THAT THE
MODELS DEPICT. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE PREVIOUS POP
FIELDS WITH THE SW TO NE GRADIENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY
WORDING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND TAPER OFF TO DRY POPS IN THE FAR
NE CWA. MAIN PERIOD SHOULD BE FROM ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z
SATURDAY.

QUIET WEATHER RETURNS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICTING A WEAK TROF
SWINGING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD PASS DRY AS COLUMN LACKING ANY DECENT MOISTURE.

PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM NW FLOW TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY,,,LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND
THURSDAY...THINGS BECOME QUESTIONABLE. THE NEW ECMWF TAKES A COMPACT
PACIFIC NW MID LEVEL LOW AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND GENERATING LOTS OF QPF. THE GFS
MAINTAINS THE RIDGING A BIT LONGER. BUT IT APPEARS SOMETHING WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MID
AND LATE WEEK TEMPS THAT ARE ON THE UNSEASONABLY WARM SIDE.
HUMIDITY SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...LOWERING FROM
TOP DOWN...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRIER NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SFC
LOW...CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. THE LOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO
SRN WISCONSIN BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER. MODERATE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS AND VISBYS ALONG WITH ISOLD THUNDER. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH BKN VFR CIGS
LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH
WAVES ONLY RUNNING AROUND A FOOT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SHOWERS EXITING THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE MORE MODERATE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE LIGHTNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH
OF NORTH POINT LIGHT HOUSE...WITH VERY SMALL CHANCES FURTHER NORTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...VANCLEVE

000
FXUS63 KMKX 030844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UTAH TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. CLOUDS WERE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAINED WEAK.

.TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY.
THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. 1000/500MB THICKNESSES RISE
AT BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 560S DKM RANGE. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS
TURING ONSHORE NEAR THE LAKE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S BEFORE FALLING.

CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD LINGER FOR A TIME
THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL
TRY TO BRING SOME DECENT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS A RESULT OF
CONVERGENCE FROM THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK.
850MB TO 500MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS ALSO FAIRLY STRONG
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SOME MOISTURE GATHERING THROUGH
THE AIR COLUMN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. INSTABILITY WEAK IN
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY IN THE
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FOR LATER TONIGHT...AND EXPAND THE
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST ACROSS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT POPS
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND ONSHORE WINDS.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AND AIR COLUMN MOISTURE MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR EARLY JULY...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES
KEEPING THE LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION BOOSTS 1000/500MB THICKNESSES INTO THE MID 570S DKM
RANGE BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...WEAKENING THERMAL TROF
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE BKN-OVC MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS THROUGH THE DAY SO
EXPECTING MORE SCT CU DURING THE AFTN...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS FROM
PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD BE SPREADING IN AT THE SAME TIME.

EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN FARTHER NORTH WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LATER
TONIGHT AND SAT MRNG. IMPRESSIVE RESPONSE TO 2-D FULL WIND
FRONTOGENESIS JUST TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY
MARGINAL BUT ENUF FORCING TO ADD TEMPO -SHRA IN FOR TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...CARRYING INTO SAT MRNG FOR A TIME AT KMKE. WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR MVFR CIGS
TO REFORM.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EAST CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY
SAG SOUTHWARD CONTRIBUTING TO WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS AFTERNOON. MARINERS WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
THUNDER POTENTIAL INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MRNG ACRS SRN
LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK

000
FXUS63 KGRB 030837
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
337 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE
CLOUD TRENDS...TEMPERATURES AND MINOR PCPN CHANCES.

STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS STILL COVERED MUCH OF GRB CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH BREAKS WERE PRESENT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
CLEARING WAS PROGRESSING SE ACROSS NW WI AND THE WSTRN UPPER
PENINSULA. WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG OVER
NC WI EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER THE CLEARING OCCURS.

EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TODAY.
MODELS ONCE AGAIN HINT AT SOME WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHOWERS OVER ABOUT THE SW HALF OF THE
FA...BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS AND LITTLE CONVERGENCE
ANTICIPATED...OUR CURRENT DRY FCST SEEMS GOOD. MIXING THROUGH
850-825 MB SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 RANGE...
ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING LK BREEZE WILL KEEP LKSHR READINGS A
LITTLE COOLER.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...MODELS KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH S/W ENERGY...MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND THE H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE/ISENT LIFT FOCUSED OVER S MN/SW
WI/IOWA/N IL. HOWEVER...WITH THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVG
THROUGH N WI AND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR
SW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...FELT THAT A
MENTION OF MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES WAS WARRANTED THERE.
FORCING AND MOISTURE SAG SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE FA...ESPECIALLY
NC/NE WI. DEEP MIXING THROUGH 825-775 MB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
75 TO 80 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WRF ONLY MODEL TO CRANK OUT PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN PUSH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS DEPICTS AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE CANADIAN IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE LOW RESOLUTION OF
THE ECMWF...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS TIMING FOR NOW AS THIS MODEL
WAS DEPICTING THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD...ELECTED TO LEAVE WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TO SEE IF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
WARRANTED THEN. LEFT-OVER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION REFIRING IN THE AFTERNOON ARE
SOME POSSIBILITIES TO INCLUDE PRECIPITATION.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE THURSDAY AND INTO THE FRIDAY PERIOD. MODELS
PERSISTENT IN BRINGING VERY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. IF YOU MIX UP TO 850MB...850MB TEMPERATURES
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE
90S AT SOME SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORTED THESE
VALUES. THERE ARE ALSO SOME CONCERNS IT MAY NOT GET THAT
WARM...AS CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST ON
THURSDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG BOUNDARY ON
FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTED THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD DIMINISH BY THE TIME IT REACHED OUR FORECAST
AREA ON BOTH DAYS. THE 00Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE WITH MORE
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH
THURSDAY AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP
ON THURSDAY...THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATOCUMULUS...WITH BASES MAINLY IN THE 2.5-4K RANGE...
COVERED MUCH OF GRB CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY CONFINED TO NC/FAR NE WI. CLEARING OVER NW WI AND THE WSTRN
UPPER PENINSULA SHOULD PROGRESS SE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WHEN THIS OCCURS...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER NC WI DURING THE 09Z-12Z PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO OSHKOSH
LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG

000
FXUS63 KARX 030801
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
301 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHEASTERN U.S....AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS. WITH REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THIS IS EVIDENT PER LATEST FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY. FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING RIDGE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS.

LATEST 03.00Z GFS AND NAM INITIALIZED THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WELL
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD...IS NAM MUCH FASTER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN GFS. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST 03.00Z GFS
AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALOFT AND TO DEVELOP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE 03.00Z
GFS AND NAM AND THE LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
EJECTING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TODAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 18Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVER SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOUGH...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER-TOPPING RIDGE WILL INCREASE OVER
WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE 03.00Z GFS AND
NAM INDICATING VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315K SURFACE AND DEEP
QG/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA AND SOUTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SATURDAY...THE 03.00Z NAM INDICATING A
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER FORECAST AREA...THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION OF
QG FORCING AT THE 500-300MB LAYER. WITH THE BEST DEEPER FORCING SOUTH
OF FORECAST AREA...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AND AT THIS TIME FEEL VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION SUNDAY AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z NAM IS MUCH
STRONGER WITH IMPULSE AND IS INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8
DEGREES CELSIUS PER KILOMETER AT 850-700MB LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. 03.00Z GFS WEAKER AND MORE LIMITED WITH
MOISTURE...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST ACROSS FORECAST
AREA AND FEEL NAM IS OVERDOING MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF IMPULSE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
BOTH THE LATEST 03.00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DO
INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...
WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE WELL NORTH OF
FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AS ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. BOTH THE
03.00Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR PLUS 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD AND LET
LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL BE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING AT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER PREVAILING
RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE REQUIRED. LATEST TRENDS ARE
CONTINUING TO INCREASE THE SIGNAL THAT INITIAL BAND OF WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN WITH A FEW STORMS WILL GET AWFULLY
CLOSE TO KRST/KLSE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE STRONGER AND
HEAVIER CONVECTION FOCUS MORE SOUTH OF THE AREA. NEW 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MENTION OF VCSH...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP
CB QUALIFIER BASED ON HI-RES WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES WHICH INDICATE
EMBEDDED CELLULAR CONVECTION AND SOME AVAILABLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. UNTIL THEN...SHOULD JUST SEE INCREASING/THICKENING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD...WITH CUMULUS POPPING UNDERNEATH WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. FURTHER TAF ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER STRATIFORM RAIN MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE TAF
SITES...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT MAIN RAIN BAND SLOWLY
NORTH. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WATCH MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AT BOTH
SITES...ESPECIALLY AT KLSE WHICH HAS BEEN IN AND OUT OF LIGHT FOG
ALREADY THIS MORNING. VFR CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD FROM FORMING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR QUICK
REDUCTIONS IN A SHALLOW FOG BANK THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION..........BINAU

000
FXUS63 KGRB 022021
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
321 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES EDGES EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR.
TOOK OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS TAMDAR
SOUNDINGS AT MKE AND CWA SHOW THW AIR IS TOO STABLE FOR SHOWERS.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY AND SEASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRI NGT THRU NXT THU. MEAN FLOW TO BE DEPICTED BY UPR
TROFS OVR THE WEST COAST AND NE CONUS WITH AN UPR RDG OVR THE
PLAINS AT THE START OF NXT WEEK. A SLOW...BUT STEADY EWD
PROGRESSION OF ALL THREE FEATURES IS EXPECTED WITH THE UPR RDG
REACHING THE WRN GREAT LKS BY NXT THU. THERE WL SML CHCS FOR PCPN
NXT WEEK AS WARMER AIR GRADUALLY RETURNS TO NE WI...HOWEVER ANY
PCPN APRS SCT AT BEST.

THE MEAN FLOW AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND TO STILL BE SOMEWHAT
ZONAL IN NATURE (SLIGHTLY NW TO SE) WITH THE MAIN PCPN ACTIVITY
FOCUSED ALONG A QUASI-STNRY FNT DRAPED FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES E-SE
TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SEVERAL SHRTWVS ARE PROGGED TO RIDE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THIS FNT AND THIS BRINGS THE NRN EDGE OF
THE PCPN SHIELD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF WI FRI NGT. WL KEEP THE FCST
AREA DRY FOR NOW...BUT WL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS OVR THE NXT 24 HRS.
DESPITE LGT WNDS AND PARTLY CLDY SKIES...PREV MIN TEMPS MAY BE TOO
COOL. HAVE ADDED A COUPLE OF DEGS MAKING READINGS RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

MAIN PCPN BAND TO CONT TO BE FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH HEADED INTO THE
4TH OF JULY AS NE WI RESIDES BETWEEN THE STALLED FNT WELL SOUTH
AND A WEAK UPR LOW LOCATED OVR SE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MORE SUN
NORTH/MORE CLDS SOUTH SHOULD PREVAIL WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE 75 TO 80 DEG RANGE.

CONVECTION ALONG THE STNRY FNT ACTUALLY PUSHES THE FNT FARTHER
SOUTH (CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY) SAT NGT...WHILE THE WEAK
UPR LOW HEADS TOWARD LK ONTARIO. THIS LEAVES NE WI WITH NO
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
SAT NGT DRY WITH MIN TEMPS CLOSE TO FRI NGT`S READINGS. THE MEAN
FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE NW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPR RDG BUILDS OVR
THE WRN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPR LOW DROPS SE
INTO E-CNTRL ONTARIO. ANY FORCING IS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW AND ALTHO THERE IS SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY OVR NRN WI...A LACK OF MID OR UPR SUPPORT WOULD
PRECLUDE ANY PCPN WORDING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGS
BLO NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEG RANGE.

THE NXT SHRTWV TROF IS FCST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON MON
WHICH IN TURN SHOVES THE UPR RDG TOWARD THE ERN SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST OVR NE WI WITH THE UPR LOW
HEADED SE TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LKS. THERE ARE MDL ISSUES WITH
RESPECT TO THE AMT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS NE WI AS THE GFS
GOES OFF AND GENERATES CAPES > 2K J/KG WITH LI`S DOWN TO -4. THE
ECMWF HAS CAPES < 200 K/KG AND LI`S ABV ZERO. BETTER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING/Q-VEC CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...THUS PREFER TO
LEAVE THE SLGT CHC POP FOR NRN WI AND LEAVE THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA DRY.

AS THE SHRTWV TROF MOVS INLAND OVR THE WEST COAST...THE UPR RDG
PUSHES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPR LOW IS STILL
MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO ON TUE. ONE LAST
SHEARED SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS WI...BUT FORCING/
INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND LOW-LVL MSTR IS QUESTIONABLE. THERE MAY BE
A STRAY SHWR...BUT NOT ENUF COVERAGE TO MENTION IN THE FCST...THUS
HAVE REMOVED THE SLGT CHC POPS FROM THE FCST.

FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED HEADED TOWARD NXT WEEK AS THE UPR
RDG IS FCST TO REACH THE WRN GREAT LKS WED NGT OR EARLY THU. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW GENERATE PCPN TUE NGT INTO WED AHEAD OF THE
8H WRMFNT AS IT LIFTS NORTH THRU WI. THIS IS A NEW TWIST SINCE
BOTH MDLS WERE DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE 24 HRS AGO. PREFER TO
HOLD THE DRY COURSE FOR THE TIME BEING AND LOOK FOR BETTER MDL
CONSISTENTCY. IF THE MDLS DO CONT TO INDICATE THIS TREND...THEN
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED DURING THE TUE NGT/WED TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...
RISING UPR HGTS AND INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WL SWEEP INTO THE WRN
GREAT LKS AS TEMPS STEADILY WARM INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S BY THU.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT MTW/GRB/OSH/ATW THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK FOR A FEW HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP LATER
TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AGAIN TOWARDS
DAYBREAK IF SKIES DO CLEAR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
RDM/KALLAS

000
FXUS63 KARX 022016
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...CLOUDS YET TONIGHT INTO FRI...RAIN
CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NY TO
ONT/QUE AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SASKAT TO MO. WV
IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED OVER EASTERN LK HURON
AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST ACROSS LK WINNIPEG. VIS
IMAGERY/SFC OBS CONTINUED TO SHOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-
CUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE REGION. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND
1.5K FT OF MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY TRAPPED UNDER AN VERSION
NEAR 850MB. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE THICKER CLOUDS REMAINED IN THE
60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

NO LARGE ERRORS NOTED WITH 02.12Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZATIONS...WITH
SOLUTIONS REASONABLY SIMILAR AND SUPPORTED BY ECMWF/UKMET/CAN-GEM
AND LOCAL/REGIONAL WRF MODELS. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 02.12Z
SHOWED NAM/GFS/ECMWF RUNS OF 30.12Z AND 01.12Z VERIFIED QUITE WELL
ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. ECMWF WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NOAM/EASTERN PAC. THRU 36HRS
MODELS GENERALLY TREND TOWARD A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO RIPPLE TOWARD
THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. FOR 36-84HRS MODELS TREND TOWARD A COMMON
SOLUTION OF EARLIER RUNS AS AN UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN
CAN AND RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...GFS A
BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH A STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONT AT
84HRS. ECMWF SHOWED THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THRU THE
PERIOD. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED NAM/GFS WITH GOOD
DEPICTIONS OF THE SFC MASS FIELDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. PER WV
IMAGERY...BOTH MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ACROSS NOAM. NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE AT 18Z AND WITH MODELS TRENDING
TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION...LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND/COMPROMISE.
WITH SOME SUBTLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...AND IMPACTS ON RAIN CHANCES
INTO A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ONLY AVERAGE
THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...FIRST PROBLEM REMAINS STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEAR LK WINNIPEG WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE LK HURON
UPPER LOW A NUDGE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH MORE NORTHWEST AND
WEST VS. NORTH FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL 925-850MB RH
PROGS AND X-SECTIONS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CELLULAR
CLOUDS OVER WEST THIRD OF FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON AND
UPSTREAM INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC THAT CELLULAR
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET AND CLEARING WILL WORK EAST ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING THRU THE ROCKIES AND ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA LATE FRI.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE. WEAK/MDT 850-
700MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND 400-200MB PV ADVECTION SPREAD INTO/
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING. PW VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE ALONG
WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 K/KG. GIVEN THE
INCREASING MODEL SIGNAL/CONSENSUS...ADDED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE
FOR LATE FRI AFTERNOON WEST OF MS RIVER AND RAISED RAIN CHANCE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. INCREASING
MODEL SIGNAL/CONSENSUS FOR A SECOND SHORTWAVE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT SOME DIFFERENCE IN STRENGTH/TRACK DO
REMAIN. SIMILAR LOW/LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SIGNAL...MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE AND PW VALUES TO FRI AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE. WITH A
GENERAL SHIFT NORTH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT SIGNAL THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...RAISED -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST END OF
THE FORECAST FOR SAT AND LINGERED A SMALL CHANCE INTO SAT EVENING.
GRID-SET RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SAT BLEND RATHER WELL WITH
NEIGHBORING GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT STILL WELL BELOW SREF PROBABILITIES.
LATER FORECAST CYCLES WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR LATER SAT NIGHT
THRU SUN NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. LEFT
LATER SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT DRY FOR NOW...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
WEAKER LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA ON SUN.

WITH COOLER HIGHS TODAY AND CLEARING TONIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD COOLER
OF GUIDANCE LOWS. FAVORING THE MODEL COMPROMISE...TRENDED TOWARD A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

02.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER GFS/CAN-GEM LOOK TO SUFFER SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE OH VALLEY ON
MON. ECMWF LOOKS TO OFFER THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. MODEL
TREND FOR TUE THRU THU IS TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM AND A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS WITH
A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY THU...WITH GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS VERY SIMILAR AND OFFERING A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. OVERALL FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION...WITH DAY 4-7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS
CYCLE. A GENERALLY DRY...QUIET...WARMING PERIOD FOR MON-THU AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS/AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A WEAK BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUE. WITH LACK OF A
FORCING SIGNAL AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE
WEST...LEFT TUE DRY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER/EAST OF THE
AREA WED/THU WITH POTENTIAL FOR PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO EJECT
OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WED/THU...BUT MAIN AXIS OF
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ THETA-E CONVERGENCE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS
MN/NORTHWEST WI. DID CARRY A SMALL -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WED THRU THU GIVEN PROXIMITY
OF FORCING AND SMALL THREAT FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THRU THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. FAVORED A
BLEND OF GFS MEX/ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS THRU
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

FOURTH DAY IN A ROW OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS REGION.
FORECASTS REMAIN OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD DRIFT AND UPSTREAM RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD
IN. MAIN PROBLEM IS SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN INVERSION
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BASED ON WIND PROFILERS AND VAD WINDS OFF
WSR-88DS REMAINS PARALLEL SO NO BIG PUSH TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST.

CELLULAR LOOK TO CLOUDS ALONG WESTERN EDGE AND EARLY JULY HEATING
WILL LIKELY CLEAR CLOUDS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA BY THIS EVENING BUT THINKING CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOUGH
ON WISCONSIN SIDE FOR THE MOST PART. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ANYWAY...HAVE DELAYED CLEARING TREND A BIT LONGER...
ESPECIALLY AT KLSE. EVEN IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS...TRENDS LAST FEW
NIGHTS HAS BEEN FOR REDEVELOPMENT SO ADDED IN PERIOD OF TIME FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS
AVIATION..........SHEA

000
FXUS63 KMKX 021911
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
211 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

COOL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SLOWLY EXITING UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS HELD THE CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS THAT THIS LOWER LEVEL RH AND
SUPPORTING COOL AIR ALOFT WILL EXIT WITH THE LOW TONIGHT RESULTING
IN MORE SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY. IF WE GET CLEARING TONIGHT /BIG IF/...THE
COOL START TO THE EVENING COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RADIATE QUICKLY TO THE DEWPOINT AND MAKE FOR SOME AREAS
OF FOG.

NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AND IS PEPPERED WITH A COUPLE WEAK SHORT
WAVES THAT APPEAR TO BE TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. ONE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
ONE ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE PAINTING GENERALLY LIGHT QPF NOW
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THEY ARE ALSO PRODUCING SOME UNREALISTIC SFC
DWPNTS. REGARDLESS...THE COMBO OF THE S/W TRAIN AND FAVORABLE DEEP
UVV FROM THE PROXIMITY OF THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET...BELIEVE A
SMALL MENTION OF PCPN IS WARRANTED. GFS/NAM MOS ARE GIVING SOME
LIKELY POPS IN SOME AREAS...BUT THIS IS OVERDONE. MAIN AREA
IMPACTED SHOULD BE THE SW HALF OF THE CWA.

THE NW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL THREAT OF PCPN DUE TO EMBEDDED ENERGY...BUT
TIMING IS DIFFICULT AND I DON/T WANT TO POLLUTE THE FCST WITH A
BUNCH OF SLIGHT CHCS. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE SEASONAL.

DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A BIG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY LEAN INTO OUR AREA AND HEAT THINGS UP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
AND BEYOND. IT SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE AREA ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY KICKS TO THE EAST. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BRING SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT BRINGING VISBYS DOWN TO MVFR THRU ABOUT 12Z. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...ASSORTED WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS AND DAYTIME LAKE BREEZES
WILL RESULT IN VARYING WINDS FROM NORTHWEST TO ONSHORE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT TIMES DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...BORGHOFF