[top]
000
FXUS61 KRLX 060125
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
925 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN
THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE BASICALLY ENDED...LESS A FEW ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. CLEARING IS OCCURRING RAPIDLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH A CLEAR SKY ON THE HORIZON HERE AT RLX. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO DEVELOP QUICKLY IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
PLACES THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN. FOG WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER
FURTHER NORTH WHERE RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WAS MORE SPARSE.
ALSO COMPOUNDING THE DIFFICULTY IS A DEWPOINT THAT IS A BIT LOWER.
STILL COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SW VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SW VIRGINIA ZONES...WHERE MODELS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING ONLY SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES
TO MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING QUITE AS MUCH
COVERAGE OR AS MUCH DENSE FOG OVER SE OHIO OR NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...WHERE LESS PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND CREATE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT PNA PATTERN OF SUMMER 2009 CONTINUES. MODELS ARE
STRONGER WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES SE
THROUGH NE STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER
TEMPERATURES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AT LEAST GETS CLOSE TO THE AREA
TUE NT AND WED ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AT LEAST
INITIALLY. AFTER THAT...GFS INDICATES DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
POTENTIALLY GIVING RISE TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WED AND WED NT.
OTHER MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS PER HIGHER HEIGHT SOLN AND NEITHER
DID HPC SO LEFT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW
THOUGH GFS SHOWS DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THU
MORNING. SUPPORT IS LACKING FROM OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INCLUDING 12Z RUNS. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF. DID
LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT IN LIGHT OF NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING
HEIGHTS NOT AS HIGH AS PROGGED FROM YESTERDAY IN THE NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR NORTH TO SOUTH...ALLOWING THE FOG TO FORM
RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVER RAIN SOAKED GROUND. CKB AND PKB
WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO FOG IN...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BEFORE DAWN. THOSE LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH
HAVE LOWER DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY INHIBIT THE PROCESS.
OTHERWISE...FURTHER SOUTH...LIFR IS EXPECTED.
BKW WILL ALSO TAKE SOME TIME TO FOG IN...WITH THE CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO HANG IN FOR SOME TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CU EXPECTED MONDAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING IN A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS.
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...26/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS61 KRLX 060000
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN
THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SW VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SW VIRGINIA ZONES...WHERE MODELS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING ONLY SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES
TO MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING QUITE AS MUCH
COVERAGE OR AS MUCH DENSE FOG OVER SE OHIO OR NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...WHERE LESS PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND CREATE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT PNA PATTERN OF SUMMER 2009 CONTINUES. MODELS ARE
STRONGER WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES SE
THROUGH NE STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER
TEMPERATURES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AT LEAST GETS CLOSE TO THE AREA
TUE NT AND WED ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AT LEAST
INITIALLY. AFTER THAT...GFS INDICATES DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
POTENTIALLY GIVING RISE TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WED AND WED NT.
OTHER MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS PER HIGHER HEIGHT SOLN AND NEITHER
DID HPC SO LEFT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW
THOUGH GFS SHOWS DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THU
MORNING. SUPPORT IS LACKING FROM OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INCLUDING 12Z RUNS. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF. DID
LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT IN LIGHT OF NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING
HEIGHTS NOT AS HIGH AS PROGGED FROM YESTERDAY IN THE NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
CLEARING WILL OCCUR NORTH TO SOUTH...ALLOWING THE FOG TO FORM
RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY OVER RAIN SOAKED GROUND. CKB AND PKB
WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO FOG IN...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BEFORE DAWN. THOSE LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH
HAVE LOWER DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY INHIBIT THE PROCESS.
OTHERWISE...FURTHER SOUTH...LIFR IS EXPECTED.
BKW WILL ALSO TAKE SOME TIME TO FOG IN...WITH THE CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO HANG IN FOR SOME TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CU EXPECTED MONDAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING IN A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS.
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS61 KRLX 052002
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
402 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN
THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SW VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SW VIRGINIA ZONES...WHERE MODELS
INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING ONLY SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION AND SKY COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES
TO MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING QUITE AS MUCH
COVERAGE OR AS MUCH DENSE FOG OVER SE OHIO OR NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...WHERE LESS PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND CREATE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT PNA PATTERN OF SUMMER 2009 CONTINUES. MODELS ARE
STRONGER WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES SE
THROUGH NE STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER
TEMPERATURES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AT LEAST GETS CLOSE TO THE AREA
TUE NT AND WED ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AT LEAST
INITIALLY. AFTER THAT...GFS INDICATES DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
POTENTIALLY GIVING RISE TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WED AND WED NT.
OTHER MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THIS PER HIGHER HEIGHT SOLN AND NEITHER
DID HPC SO LEFT FCST DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW
THOUGH GFS SHOWS DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THU
MORNING. SUPPORT IS LACKING FROM OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
INCLUDING 12Z RUNS. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF. DID
LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT IN LIGHT OF NEW GUIDANCE SHOWING
HEIGHTS NOT AS HIGH AS PROGGED FROM YESTERDAY IN THE NW FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER
00Z FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...EXPECT FOG TO FORM BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED.
EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. FOG WILL LIFT AFTER 13Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/TRM
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 051737
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD...AT 7Z IT WAS OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT IT IS IN THE BEST 850 MB JET REGION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AS THE 850 MB JET SHIFT TO
THE EAST SO WITH THE PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE HELD ON TO SOME HIGH
POPS EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT ONCE THE 850 MB JET AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT EAST...EXPECT TO SEE THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN DROP BACK PRETTY QUICKLY THERE AFTER. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THE SURFACE LOW REFORMING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS LOW REFORMS AND THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SHOULD SEE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DROP
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. BUT WITH THE WEAK INITIAL SURFACE LOW
TO THE WEST AND THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND SHOULD
SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS
BREAK UP. ONCE THE CLOUDS DO BREAK SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG
FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT GET RAIN.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...STAYED WELL BELOW THE GUIDANCE AS THE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE PKB AND AREAS WEST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE COULD BE
AROUND TO PUSH READINGS HIGHER. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE
COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK. BUT THEN WITH THE SURFACE
MOIST SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO SO LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO
APPEAR WITH HANDLING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS
THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE EDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NAM WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SREF AND ECMWF KEEP THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION. BASED ON
ENSEMBLES...WILL STAY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW WITH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE...MOST OF ITS ENERGY PASSING NE
OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF ONGOING...GFS AND HPC...WITH THE
DRY WEATHER ACTUALLY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BECAUSE THE HEIGHTS COME UP. THE NIGHTS
REMAIN TOLERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FRI NT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18 SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER
00Z FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...EXPECT FOG TO FORM BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED.
EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG. FOG WILL LIFT AFTER 13Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 051053
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
653 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD...AT 7Z IT WAS OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT IT IS IN THE BEST 850 MB JET REGION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AS THE 850 MB JET SHIFT TO
THE EAST SO WITH THE PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE HELD ON TO SOME HIGH
POPS EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT ONCE THE 850 MB JET AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT EAST...EXPECT TO SEE THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN DROP BACK PRETTY QUICKLY THERE AFTER. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THE SURFACE LOW REFORMING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS LOW REFORMS AND THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SHOULD SEE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DROP
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. BUT WITH THE WEAK INITIAL SURFACE LOW
TO THE WEST AND THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND SHOULD
SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS
BREAK UP. ONCE THE CLOUDS DO BREAK SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG
FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT GET RAIN.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...STAYED WELL BELOW THE GUIDANCE AS THE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE PKB AND AREAS WEST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE COULD BE
AROUND TO PUSH READINGS HIGHER. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE
COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK. BUT THEN WITH THE SURFACE
MOIST SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO SO LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO
APPEAR WITH HANDLING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS
THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE EDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NAM WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SREF AND ECMWF KEEP THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION. BASED ON
ENSEMBLES...WILL STAY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW WITH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE...MOST OF ITS ENERGY PASSING NE
OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF ONGOING...GFS AND HPC...WITH THE
DRY WEATHER ACTUALLY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BECAUSE THE HEIGHTS COME UP. THE NIGHTS
REMAIN TOLERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FRI NT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW ENTERING WRN KY WITH A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING EASTWARD RIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. THE BAND
OF RAIN HAS FORMED JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE
BASICALLY WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FRONT. IN THE RAIN VSBY IS IFR
BUT CEILINGS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET DOWN BELOW 3000 FT...BUT THEY
OCCASIONAL ARE REACHING IFR LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS ARE
STILL 4000 FT AND ABOVE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST AND SHOULD REFORM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO DROP BACK SOUTH. THE CEILINGS BEHIND
THE LOW SHOULD DROP DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AS DRIER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES AFTER 00Z.
ONCE THE CLEARING BEGINS TONIGHT...EXPECT FOG TO FORM SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE DENSE AFTER 6Z.
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 050801
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD...AT 7Z IT WAS OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT IT IS IN THE BEST 850 MB JET REGION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AS THE 850 MB JET SHIFT TO
THE EAST SO WITH THE PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE HELD ON TO SOME HIGH
POPS EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT ONCE THE 850 MB JET AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT EAST...EXPECT TO SEE THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN DROP BACK PRETTY QUICKLY THERE AFTER. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THE SURFACE LOW REFORMING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS LOW REFORMS AND THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SHOULD SEE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DROP
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. BUT WITH THE WEAK INITIAL SURFACE LOW
TO THE WEST AND THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND SHOULD
SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS
BREAK UP. ONCE THE CLOUDS DO BREAK SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG
FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT GET RAIN.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...STAYED WELL BELOW THE GUIDANCE AS THE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE PKB AND AREAS WEST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE COULD BE
AROUND TO PUSH READINGS HIGHER. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE
COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK. BUT THEN WITH THE SURFACE
MOIST SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO SO LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO
APPEAR WITH HANDLING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS
THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE EDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NAM WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SREF AND ECMWF KEEP THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION. BASED ON
ENSEMBLES...WILL STAY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW WITH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE...MOST OF ITS ENERGY PASSING NE
OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF ONGOING...GFS AND HPC...WITH THE
DRY WEATHER ACTUALLY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BECAUSE THE HEIGHTS COME UP. THE NIGHTS
REMAIN TOLERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FRI NT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS PUSHING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IS NEAR SPARTA ILLINOIS AND IS TRACKING OFF
TO THE EAST...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE BEST OVERRUNNING IS SETTING UP ACROSS SRN
OHIO INTO WV AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AT
THIS TIME...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BETWEEN 4K AND 7KT FT. THEY
COULD FLUCTUATE DOWN TO AROUND 2500 FT IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS HTS/CRW/BKW THROUGH 11Z. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS
SHOULD VARY LITTLE AS THE BEST RAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
BY AROUND 12Z...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
KY...BUT WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT SWING THROUGH...WILL BEGIN TO SEE
THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RACE OFF TO THE EAST...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BUT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE OUT OF THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST...EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.
DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CLOUDS AWAY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD. ONCE PAST...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
THIN...ALLOWING THE SKY TO CLEAR...BUT ONCE IT DOES...FOG SHOULD
FORM BEHIND PRETTY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
THE RAIN.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 050800
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD...AT 7Z IT WAS OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH. BUT IT IS IN THE BEST 850 MB JET REGION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AS THE 850 MB JET SHIFT TO
THE EAST SO WITH THE PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE HELD ON TO SOME HIGH
POPS EARLY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT ONCE THE 850 MB JET AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT EAST...EXPECT TO SEE THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN DROP BACK PRETTY QUICKLY THERE AFTER. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE THE SURFACE LOW REFORMING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS LOW REFORMS AND THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES...SHOULD SEE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DROP
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. BUT WITH THE WEAK INITIAL SURFACE LOW
TO THE WEST AND THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND SHOULD
SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS
BREAK UP. ONCE THE CLOUDS DO BREAK SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF FOG
FORM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT GET RAIN.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...STAYED WELL BELOW THE GUIDANCE AS THE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE PKB AND AREAS WEST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE COULD BE
AROUND TO PUSH READINGS HIGHER. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE
COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK. BUT THEN WITH THE SURFACE
MOIST SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP WHICH COULD HOLD TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO SO LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO
APPEAR WITH HANDLING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS
THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE EDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NAM WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SREF AND ECMWF KEEP THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION. BASED ON
ENSEMBLES...WILL STAY WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND KEEP DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW WITH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE...MOST OF ITS ENERGY PASSING NE
OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF ONGOING...GFS AND HPC...WITH THE
DRY WEATHER ACTUALLY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BECAUSE THE HEIGHTS COME UP. THE NIGHTS
REMAIN TOLERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FRI NT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS PUSHING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IS NEAR SPARTA ILLINOIS AND IS TRACKING OFF
TO THE EAST...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE BEST OVERRUNNING IS SETTING UP ACROSS SRN
OHIO INTO WV AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AT
THIS TIME...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BETWEEN 4K AND 7KT FT. THEY
COULD FLUCTUATE DOWN TO AROUND 2500 FT IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS HTS/CRW/BKW THROUGH 11Z. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS
SHOULD VARY LITTLE AS THE BEST RAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
BY AROUND 12Z...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
KY...BUT WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT SWING THROUGH...WILL BEGIN TO SEE
THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RACE OFF TO THE EAST...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BUT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE OUT OF THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST...EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.
DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CLOUDS AWAY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD. ONCE PAST...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
THIN...ALLOWING THE SKY TO CLEAR...BUT ONCE IT DOES...FOG SHOULD
FORM BEHIND PRETTY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
THE RAIN.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 050619
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
219 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND LOW FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATEST RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IMAGES SHOW
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN HAVE DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRD OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODERATE
RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE OH RIVER BETWEEN OH AND KY...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WV AND KY BORDER OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL AREAS
PRECIPITATION ARE EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL OH...MOVING EAST...AND WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF WV OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FROM 06Z TO 12Z. ALL
MODELS BRING PCPN TO AN END FROM PKB...TO CRW AND HTS BY 15Z SUN...
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 18-21Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVES LOW CLOUDS IN ITS
WAKE BUT ONLY FOR A TIME AS MODELS INSIST ON DRY ADVECTION LIMITING
MOISTURE TO JUST THE BOUNDARY LAYER LASTER IN THE NIGHT. THIS THEN
WOULD FAVOR POST RAIN FOG THOUGH KICKED THE CAN ON INCLUSION FOR
NOW. HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE AIR TAKE OVER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD.
USED AN AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS FOR LOWS SUN NT WITH A LARGE
DISPARITY AT EKN A FUNCTION OF WHETHER IT CLEARS. HIGHS MON LOOKED
GOOD FROM PREV PACKAGE AND LATEST NUMBERS. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE
TOWARD THE LOWER MAV MON NT AS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO
IMPEDIMENT TO RADIATIVE COOLING. ALSO LOWERED HIGHS TUE PER LOWER
MEX WITH COOL CANADIAN AIR IN CONTROL BUT MEX IS TOO LOW TUE NT IF
NAM12 IS RIGHT WITH WSW FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE N...STUCK WITH PREV FCST. OTHER MODELS ARE DRY
COMPARED WITH MOISTURE LADEN LOOK OF THE NAM12.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW WITH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE...MOST OF ITS ENERGY PASSING NE
OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF ONGOING...GFS AND HPC...WITH THE
DRY WEATHER ACTUALLY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BECAUSE THE HEIGHTS COME UP. THE NIGHTS
REMAIN TOLERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FRI NT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS PUSHING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IS NEAR SPARTA ILLINOIS AND IS TRACKING OFF
TO THE EAST...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS KY.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE BEST OVERRUNNING IS SETTING UP ACROSS SRN
OHIO INTO WV AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AT
THIS TIME...CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR...BETWEEN 4K AND 7KT FT. THEY
COULD FLUCTUATE DOWN TO AROUND 2500 FT IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS HTS/CRW/BKW THROUGH 11Z. ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS
SHOULD VARY LITTLE AS THE BEST RAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
BY AROUND 12Z...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
KY...BUT WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT SWING THROUGH...WILL BEGIN TO SEE
THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THIS FEATURE
WILL THEN RACE OFF TO THE EAST...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BUT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE OUT OF THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST...EXPECT CEILINGS TO FALL DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.
DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CLOUDS AWAY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD. ONCE PAST...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
THIN...ALLOWING THE SKY TO CLEAR...BUT ONCE IT DOES...FOG SHOULD
FORM BEHIND PRETTY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
THE RAIN.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 050229
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND LOW FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATEST RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IMAGES SHOW
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN HAVE DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRD OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MODERATE
RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE OH RIVER BETWEEN OH AND KY...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WV AND KY BORDER OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL AREAS
PRECIPITATION ARE EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL OH...MOVING EAST...AND WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF WV OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FROM 06Z TO 12Z. ALL
MODELS BRING PCPN TO AN END FROM PKB...TO CRW AND HTS BY 15Z SUN...
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 18-21Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVES LOW CLOUDS IN ITS
WAKE BUT ONLY FOR A TIME AS MODELS INSIST ON DRY ADVECTION LIMITING
MOISTURE TO JUST THE BOUNDARY LAYER LASTER IN THE NIGHT. THIS THEN
WOULD FAVOR POST RAIN FOG THOUGH KICKED THE CAN ON INCLUSION FOR
NOW. HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE AIR TAKE OVER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD.
USED AN AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS FOR LOWS SUN NT WITH A LARGE
DISPARITY AT EKN A FUNCTION OF WHETHER IT CLEARS. HIGHS MON LOOKED
GOOD FROM PREV PACKAGE AND LATEST NUMBERS. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE
TOWARD THE LOWER MAV MON NT AS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO
IMPEDIMENT TO RADIATIVE COOLING. ALSO LOWERED HIGHS TUE PER LOWER
MEX WITH COOL CANADIAN AIR IN CONTROL BUT MEX IS TOO LOW TUE NT IF
NAM12 IS RIGHT WITH WSW FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE N...STUCK WITH PREV FCST. OTHER MODELS ARE DRY
COMPARED WITH MOISTURE LADEN LOOK OF THE NAM12.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW WITH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE...MOST OF ITS ENERGY PASSING NE
OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF ONGOING...GFS AND HPC...WITH THE
DRY WEATHER ACTUALLY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BECAUSE THE HEIGHTS COME UP. THE NIGHTS
REMAIN TOLERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FRI NT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECASTED MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH RAIN TO 2500 FT THRU
06Z...DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR 1600 FT FROM 06-13Z ACROSS
CRW...BKW...AND HTS. CRW AND BKW COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE SUN MORNING...PERHAPS SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING HTS AND PKB AROUND 15-17Z.
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 042005
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND LOW FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...THE BULK OF
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ACROSS THE CWA. THINKING BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
WILL BE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS
EXIST...AND HAVE THEREFORE TAKEN THUNDER OUT OF MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
ZONES. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE
FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WITH KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE OF POPS
UP NORTH. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ON THE
COOL SIDE...AND TRENDED THEM SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVES LOW CLOUDS IN ITS
WAKE BUT ONLY FOR A TIME AS MODELS INSIST ON DRY ADVECTION LIMITING
MOISTURE TO JUST THE BOUNDARY LAYER LASTER IN THE NIGHT. THIS THEN
WOULD FAVOR POST RAIN FOG THOUGH KICKED THE CAN ON INCLUSION FOR
NOW. HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE AIR TAKE OVER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
PERIOD.
USED AN AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS FOR LOWS SUN NT WITH A LARGE
DISPARITY AT EKN A FUNCTION OF WHETHER IT CLEARS. HIGHS MON LOOKED
GOOD FROM PREV PACKAGE AND LATEST NUMBERS. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE
TOWARD THE LOWER MAV MON NT AS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE OR NO
IMPEDIMENT TO RADIATIVE COOLING. ALSO LOWERED HIGHS TUE PER LOWER
MEX WITH COOL CANADIAN AIR IN CONTROL BUT MEX IS TOO LOW TUE NT IF
NAM12 IS RIGHT WITH WSW FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE N...STUCK WITH PREV FCST. OTHER MODELS ARE DRY
COMPARED WITH MOISTURE LADEN LOOK OF THE NAM12.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT MOSTLY WITH ECMWF PER HPC AND ISC. NW FLOW REGIME PERSISTS
OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH DRY SOLN FOR NOW WITH
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE...MOST OF ITS ENERGY PASSING NE
OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD SOMEWHAT. NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES SAT DAY 7 PER ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF ONGOING...GFS AND HPC...WITH THE
DRY WEATHER ACTUALLY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DESPITE THE NW FLOW ALOFT...BECAUSE THE HEIGHTS COME UP. THE NIGHTS
REMAIN TOLERABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXCEPT FRI NT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION AFTER 20Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. BULK OF
PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KI43 TO KEKN. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
15Z BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SL/TRM
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 041740
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE
INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...ARE STARTING TO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY/CENTRAL OHIO...WITH PRECIPITATION ALREADY REACHING
PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY IS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FLOW
CHANGES...THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SOME WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT THAT BY MID
MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. BUT THE BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVING ITS USUALLY 3 HOUR TIMING LAG. THE OTHER MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...AS ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER
MODELS...CANADIAN....SREF ETC. SO HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE POPS. SO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS BUT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
THE POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ON THE VERGE OF EXITING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE HELD JUST UNDER THE GUIDANCE...NOT SOME MUCH
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...BUT WITH THE
THICKENING CIRRUS TODAY...FELT THE CLOUDS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD
THE READINGS DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES. SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY WELL
CLUSTERED AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE MORNING PRECIPITATION...BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT DRY
WEATHER REMAINS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON MONDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE REGION AFTER 20Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 00Z. BULK OF
PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KI43 TO KEKN. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
15Z BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...SL/ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL
000
FXUS61 KRLX 041324
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE
INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION HAS KEPT CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...ARE STARTING TO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY/CENTRAL OHIO...WITH PRECIPITATION ALREADY REACHING
PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY IS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FLOW
CHANGES...THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SOME WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT THAT BY MID
MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. BUT THE BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVING ITS USUALLY 3 HOUR TIMING LAG. THE OTHER MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...AS ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER
MODELS...CANADIAN....SREF ETC. SO HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE POPS. SO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS BUT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
THE POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ON THE VERGE OF EXITING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE HELD JUST UNDER THE GUIDANCE...NOT SOME MUCH
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...BUT WITH THE
THICKENING CIRRUS TODAY...FELT THE CLOUDS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD
THE READINGS DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES. SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY WELL
CLUSTERED AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE MORNING PRECIPITATION...BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT DRY
WEATHER REMAINS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON MONDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL LINGERING AND THEY SHOULD
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY BACKS AROUND
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. EXPECT
THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BEFORE NOON TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z...AS ANY LINGERING RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD
BE GONE...AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER SRN KY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AROUND 00Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
INTO THE HTS AREA. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z WITH HTS/CRW/BKW AND
PERHAPS EVEN PKB IMPACTED WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER 6Z...THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE WESTERN SITES AFTER 9Z.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...SL/ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 041027
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
627 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY IS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FLOW
CHANGES...THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SOME WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT THAT BY MID
MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. BUT THE BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVING ITS USUALLY 3 HOUR TIMING LAG. THE OTHER MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...AS ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER
MODELS...CANADIAN....SREF ETC. SO HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE POPS. SO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS BUT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
THE POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ON THE VERGE OF EXITING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE HELD JUST UNDER THE GUIDANCE...NOT SOME MUCH
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...BUT WITH THE
THICKENING CIRRUS TODAY...FELT THE CLOUDS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD
THE READINGS DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES. SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY WELL
CLUSTERED AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE MORNING PRECIPITATION...BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT DRY
WEATHER REMAINS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON MONDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL LINGERING AND THEY SHOULD
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY BACKS AROUND
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. EXPECT
THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BEFORE NOON TODAY. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z...AS ANY LINGERING RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD
BE GONE...AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES
EAST INTO THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER SRN KY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AROUND 00Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
INTO THE HTS AREA. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z WITH HTS/CRW/BKW AND
PERHAPS EVEN PKB IMPACTED WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
AFTER 6Z...THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD
GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE WESTERN SITES AFTER 9Z.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 040813
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KY IS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FLOW
CHANGES...THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF SOME WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT THAT BY MID
MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BE GONE. BUT THE BREAK IN THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
SEEMS TO HAVING ITS USUALLY 3 HOUR TIMING LAG. THE OTHER MODEL
DIFFERENCE IS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE NAM...AS ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER
MODELS...CANADIAN....SREF ETC. SO HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD
THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE POPS. SO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS BUT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE
THE POPS UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ON THE VERGE OF EXITING AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE HELD JUST UNDER THE GUIDANCE...NOT SOME MUCH
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM OF LATE...BUT WITH THE
THICKENING CIRRUS TODAY...FELT THE CLOUDS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO HOLD
THE READINGS DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES. SO HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
MET NUMBERS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY WELL
CLUSTERED AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE MORNING PRECIPITATION...BUT TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT DRY
WEATHER REMAINS. WILL REMOVE POPS ON MONDAY AND KEEP DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL LINGERING AND THEY SHOULD
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY BACKS AROUND
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING AT CKB AND EKN. ALTHOUGH IF THE
CLOUDS DO BREAK BEFORE SUN UP...VISIBILITIES COULD QUICKLY FALL TO
MVFR OR IFR LEVELS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GONE...BUT THE CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS.
WHILE IT IS THIN...THERE IS ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED
WITH THE CIRRUS TO LIMIT THE FOG BUT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY...INITIALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z AND THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES EAST INTO THE AREA
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER SRN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AROUND 00Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
INTO THE HTS AREA. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z WITH HTS/CRW/BKW AND
PERHAPS EVEN PKB IMPACTED WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL GO...BUT IT LOOKS FOR CERTAIN TO IMPACT THE SRN SITES.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 040624
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER TONIGHT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND FIRST PART
OF SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ALTHOUGH THE THICKER CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY OUT OF THE REGION. THINKING THAT WITH
THE LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THAT TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE THEREFORE
BUMPED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS PER PREVIOUS
FORECAST...STILL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PLACING WARM FRONT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN MCS RIDING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SE TOWARDS THE
REGION SATURDAY EVENING. A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
FORECAST TRACK. IF THE MCS GOES SOUTH...THIS COULD ROB MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE REGION. HOWEVER...HAVE STILL
INCREASED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION AS STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH PAST 24 HOURS WITH
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. YET...INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS STILL FIGURED TO BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH...THEN
REFIRE AGAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. HAVE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXITING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
CHANCE POPS OF A LINGERING AFTERNOON SHOWER.
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REFORMING ON MONDAY OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH DISTURBANCES ROTATING
SE...AROUND THE UPPER AIR TROF. THAT SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE LATER OR
REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR N.
NO BIG CHANGES ON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LIKE THE STATEMENT FROM YESTERDAY...THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
ONTARIO MID/UPPER AIR TROF REACHES ITS PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO. CERTAINLY
SHOULD NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE FEATURE SEEN JULY 1ST AND
2ND...IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.
AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM...DID INSERT SOME 20 POPS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TIMING COULD BE OFF...AND IT MAY BE AS LATE AS
TUESDAY...OR REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. IN ANY CASE...ANOTHER SHOT
OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COMFORTABLE JULY AIR.
500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD IN NATIONS MIDSECTION BY DAY 6 AND 7...WITH
WARMER AND MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES PUSHING EAST INTO OHIO
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY A DRY PATTERN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL LINGERING AND THEY SHOULD
LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS WHEN THE FLOW FINALLY BACKS AROUND
TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. THIS
WILL KEEP THE FOG FROM FORMING AT CKB AND EKN. ALTHOUGH IF THE
CLOUDS DO BREAK BEFORE SUN UP...VISIBILITIES COULD QUICKLY FALL TO
MVFR OR IFR LEVELS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
GONE...BUT THE CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS.
WHILE IT IS THIN...THERE IS ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMBINED
WITH THE CIRRUS TO LIMIT THE FOG BUT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY...INITIALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z AND THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY. THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN WITH CEILINGS LOWERING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES EAST INTO THE AREA
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER SRN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AROUND 00Z...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
INTO THE HTS AREA. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z WITH HTS/CRW/BKW AND
PERHAPS EVEN PKB IMPACTED WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.
THE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL GO...BUT IT LOOKS FOR CERTAIN TO IMPACT THE SRN SITES.
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES PAST.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ESS
| 
