000
FXAK68 PAFC 222345
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

MILDER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY WIND AND PRECIPITATION ABOUT SUMS IT UP
FOR THE NEXT 4 OR 5 DAYS. FORECAST MODELS JUMPING AROUND FROM ONE
RUN/DAY TO THE NEXT SO I WON`T BOTHER EVEN MENTIONING MUCH PAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

BLIZZARD WARNING OVER FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST AS SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW
CENTER NOW JUST NORTH OF COLD BAY MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GREATER KING
SALMON VICINITY MONDAY MORNING.

NICE OVER RUNNING HAS BROUGHT FAIR SNOW AMOUNTS...4 TO 8 INCHES
WESTERN COOK INLET SUSITNA VALLEY AREAS WITH ALL THE SNOW FALLING
WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY. MODEL FORECAST FOR KENAI PENINSULA AND
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND PREDICT 2 TO 4 FT OF SNOW EAST OF THE
SEWARD HIGHWAY ABOVE THE 2000 FT LEVEL.

CHINOOK PATTERN ALONG CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION FROM
ANCHOR POINT NORTH TO PALMER. UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS STORMY WITH SEVERAL
STRONG CHINOOK WINDS EVENTS LOOMING.

SEVERAL POLAR TYPE LOWS TO FORM AND DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOFS AS ARCTIC AIR STAYS LOCKED IN THE BERING. NEXT
BIG STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW  OUT WEST LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 101 AND 125
MARINE...STORM AREA 120
GALE AREAS 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 165 170 171 179 180
AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...0

PERCY NOV 09

000
FXAK69 PAFG 222335
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER NW ALASKA IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING APART WITH
WARMER AIR POURING NORTHWARD INTO MAINLAND ALASKA AHEAD OF DEEP
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA STORM. MEANWHILE...A COLD LOW ALOFT
PRESENTLY NEAR 83N/150W WILL MOVE A BIT SW WITH A TROF EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE WRANGEL ISLAND/WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT NORTHERN ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...OLD 970 MB LOW NORTH OF COLD BAY WILL BE ABSORBED
MON AS 963 CENTER 250 NM SSE OF KODIAK MOVES TO COOK INLET BY MON
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS TO 974 MB. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION IS
MOVING NWD ATTM AND PRODUCING SOME OVERRUNNING SNOW. A NEW 988 MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON DELTA MON NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTHWARD THRU
THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR
NORTHWARD...WHILE A NEW LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA
EARLY WED HAS MASSIVE MODEL DISCREPANCY ON DEPTH...AND TO A LESSOR
EXTANT LOCATION.

NORTH SLOPE...CLEAR AND COLD INLAND WILL START TO MODERATE
MONDAY AS CLOUDS AND WARMER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE.
SOME INCREASE IN COASTAL WINDS BY TUE.

WEST COAST...BASED ON WEB CAMS IT APPEARS MODELS OVER FORECAST
PRECIP IN ZONES 214-215...SO WE HAVE CANCELED ADVISORY. SEWARD
PEN SOUTHWARD...AREAS OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH AS SHORT WAVES/SFC
LOWS MOVES AROUND. MINIMAL PRECIP KOTZ NWD. WINDS INCREASING MOST
AREAS WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORY.

INTERIOR...AMS MODERATING RAPIDLY AND INCREASING PRES GRAD WILL
ALLOW ALL AREAS TO WARM...THOUGH SOME WIND PROTECTED EASTERN
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS. SMALL AMOUNTS OF
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND NORTHERN ZONES NEXT 36
HOURS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STORMS APPEAR TO REMAIN
TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST FOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES IN THE DIMINISHING
AREAS OF OPEN WATER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

RT NOV 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 222309
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
209 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...STRONG STORM IN THE WORKS OUT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF TODAY. AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF IT WILL
SEND A STRONG FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. RESENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK JUST A
BIT WEST OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CURRENTLY THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST
EAST WITH MOST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS CLUSTERED ABOUT 200 TO
300 MILES FURTHER WEST. IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS RATHER GOOD BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS WITH THE FIRST OF
THE FRONTAL BANDS HITTING THE SOUTHWEST OUTER COAST LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE KICKING UP HIGHER WINDS AHEAD OF IT SO HAVE
KEPT THE WIND ADVISORIES THAT WERE POSTED BY THE MID SHIFT THE
SAME EXCEPT THAT THE ADV FOR 23 NOW STARTS AT MIDNIGHT INSTEAD OF
3 AM.

 AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, IT WILL SPREAD SOME MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. TYPE
WILL MAINLY BE LIQUID SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JUNEAU TO HOONAH TO
CROSS SOUND, WITH ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT LINE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. BELIEVE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH AND QPFS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
HAVE POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR GUSTAVUS, HOONAH,
JUNEAU, HAINES AND SKAGWAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SNOW
TO BEGIN TO MIX WITH RAIN IN GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, AND JUNEAU.

 ONE STICKY POINT IS A DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE FRONT BEFORE IT
MAKES IT INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS COULD CAUSE A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS TO ISSUE A WIND WARNING HOWEVER.

 SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED USING A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND
NAM TODAY. WITH RELATIVELY GOOD INITIAL PLACEMENT AND A SCENARIO
THAT WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, FELT THAT THE UKMET
WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WAS THAT I USED THE
HIGHER WIND MAGNITUDES OF THE GFS IN THE WIND FORECAST. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW THE DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...IT WAS A VERY TRICKY DAY ON THE LONG TERM DESK AS THE
OVERNIGHTS MODELS DID NOT HAVE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE EC
FLIP FLOP ON THE WEATHER SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE GULF ON TUE AND
THERE ARE OTHER ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SERIES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE GULF.
ALSO THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE INCREASE IN ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD
OVERNIGHT SO WITH THAT SAID THERE WAS NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHERE CHANGES WERE MADE USED A BLEND OF THE
INHERITED GRIDS WITH THE GFS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE ELONGATED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THEN FOR THE EXTEND
PORTIONS USED HPC GUIDANCE. OVERALL THERE IS LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN ANY INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
THIS WEEK. THERE IS FAIR FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE
3 TO 4 WEATHER FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS WEEK
ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM A SURFACE TROF WITH A FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING OVER THE PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A MIX OVER THE
CENTRAL AREAS THAT WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN OVER NIGHT. FURTHER
NORTH IT WILL BE SNOWING BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE AND MIX OUT THE COLD AIR. IT MAY STAY ALL SNOW ALONG
THE HIGHWAYS LONGER WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT OVER
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
NEAR PAGY AND PAHN.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE MORNING BUT A UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER
FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TUE AND THE
WINDS ALONG THE GULF WILL INCREASE TO GALES ALONG WITH SMALL
CRAFTS OVER INSIDE WATERS. THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS MAY
NEED WIND ADVY BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM AS WITH THE LOW
CENTER OVER IN THE WESTERN GULF THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GULF.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ020-
     021-025.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ023-028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ018-
     019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032.

&&

$$

EAL/ABJ

000
FXAK67 PAJK 221438
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
538 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...WEAKENING TROF OVER THE ERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY
THIS EVENING. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NPAC WILL MOVE N INTO THE
WRN GULF AND INTENSIFY TO STORM FORCE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE GULF
TONIGHT AS WELL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE WEATHER WITH THE NEXT STRONG
LOW AND FRONT. THRU TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE MAIN LAND AREA HAZARD
WILL BE WINDS ALONG THE SW PART OF THE PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT AS
THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE FRONT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS IT WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE
E-W ORIENTED AS IT MOVES N...SO THE WINDIER AREAS WILL BE MORE
LOCALIZED. IF THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE WAVE
HOWEVER...AS IT NEARS ZONE 27 IT COULD CAUSE A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW
AND POTENTIALLY TAKE WINDS UP TO HIGH WIND LEVELS. ATTM...WILL BE
ISSUING WIND ADVYS FOR ZONES 23..27..28..AND 29 BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GULF
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH GALES FOR SRN AND WRN INNER
CHANNELS. REMAINING INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE WINDS REACH SCA
LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...ANY LEFTOVER STEADY PRECIP WITH THE WEAKENING TROF
SHOULD MOVE E OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE ERN GULF AND MAY BRUSH THE OUTER COAST THRU THE
DAY. THE SHOWERS MAY GET ENHANCED SOME AS THE FRONT MOVES IN THIS
EVENING BUT THEY WILL BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM THE
STEADIER PRECIP WITH THE FRONT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SHOULD
SEE PRECIP REACH THE SW COAST AROUND 06Z...THEN GET TO A PAEL-
PAOH-PAPG LINE BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NE
AS EXACT TIMING WILL BE TRICKY IN THOSE AREAS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS
EITHER ENHANCING OR HINDERING PRECIP ADVANCEMENT TO THE NE. PTYPE
SHOULD BE RAIN ALONG THE SRN COAST...BUT SOME SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER
THE INNER CHANNELS AND NRN COASTAL AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS THRU TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVY LEVELS THOUGH...WITH GENERALLY UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MON.



&&

.LONG TERM...FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY IN TO TUESDAY IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER ON THE MAIN ITEMS OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE BEFORE THEY START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO USE AN
OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR ANY OF THE MODEL ADJUSTMENTS. END PORTION
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ADJUST WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE GRIDS
WHERE AVAILABLE...DUE TO THE PROBLEMS OF THE MODELS ALIGNING. THE
EARLIER SECTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY... HAD A LITTLE OF
THE GFS AND SOME OF THE SREF BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST.

EXPECT THE VIGOROUS FRONT TO BE BE WEAKENING AS IS LIFTS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COASTAL AREAS UNTIL ABOUT
NOON MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.

PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE RAIN... OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION LIKE LYNN CANAL GLACIER BAY AND INTO THE JUNEAU
AREA PRECIPITATION OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BE IN FORM OF SNOW. IT
APPEARS AS IF THE QPF NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE LOWER WITH THE
AFTERNOON RUN SO DID NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH SNOW IN THE FORECAST
PACKAGE THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE IT TAPERS OR MIXES
WITH RAIN FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SNOW ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY THERE IS ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THEN.




.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ023-029.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032.

&&

$$

RWT/BEZENEK

000
FXAK68 PAFC 221428
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS A TROF IS DRAPED OVER THE BERING WHILE A RIDGE IS
PRESENT OVER THE NE GULF BACK THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND NOSING
EAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW NORTH OF COLD BAY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. FURTHER SOUTH A DEEPENING LOW IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE GULF OF AK AS IT MOVES NORTH.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CAPTURE THE MAJOR FEATURES ADEQUATELY THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON TUESDAY. THE LOW NORTH OF THE AKPEN
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND MOVE ASHORE BRISTOL BAY ON MONDAY.
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF AK ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
KENAI PENINSULA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE NAM SOLUTION IS
SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE LINGERING IT OVER THE GULF
UNTIL MOVING IT ASHORE ON MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER DEEP LOW LOOKS TO
ROTATE UP THE GULF AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE FASTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...THOUGH THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN IS SLOWER...SIMILAR TO THE EC SOLUTION. FOR NOW THE GFS WAS
EMPLOYED IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO THE EC FOR
LONGER RANGE PRODUCTS. THOUGH WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER LOW BEYOND THE SHORT-TERM RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE GULF...SNOW AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. SNOW WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...WHILE AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA DOWN TOWARDS
KODIAK WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN. LOCAL DOWNSLOPING TO RETARD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU VALLEYS TO PRIMARILY
FLURRIES OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF SNOW ON TUESDAY AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW WILL YIELD STORM-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
GULF...AND POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL WINDS THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY AND
TURNAGAIN ARM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL
MOVE UP THE GULF ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E BERING WILL SLIP INTO BRISTOL BAY ON MONDAY.
IN THE INTERIM...SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KUSKOWIM VALLEY/DELTA
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...WHILE THE AKPEN AND SOUTHERN
BRISTOL BAY SQUEEZE OUT RAIN. LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
KUSKOWIM DELTA WILL ALSO IMPROVE AS THE LOW WEAKENS...BRINGING TO AN
END THE LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THERE. PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO
SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN ALSO DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE ALEUTIANS IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN BERING. A DEEP LOW WILL
APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASED
THREAT OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FAIR TO POOR DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
LONG RANGE...THOUGH SUFFICE TO SAY THOUGH THAT THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF AK BRING THEIR IMPACTS TO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. BULK OF FORECAST CHALLENGES BEING TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF
THESE SYSTEMS AND NOT SO MUCH THEIR DEVELOPMENT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155
         HIGH WIND WATCH...101 125
MARINE...STORM...351 352 120
         GALE...125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 165 170 171 179
                180 185
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...412 414 179 180 185

JAM NOV 09

000
FXAK69 PAFG 221405
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
505 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN BRISTOL BAY WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TODAY. WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE
CAUSING A FEW WIND CHILL PROBLEMS IN WESTERN INTERIOR ZONES. HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILL...HEAVY SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW FOR ZONE 215. WIND SPEEDS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MERIT
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ZONE 216 BUT
IT WILL BE CLOSE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN ZONE 216 WILL BE NEAR
ADVISORY AS WELL...BUT MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE
LARGELY UNINHABITED AREA SOUTH OF GALENA AND RUBY.

WEAK CHINOOK FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
TODAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES IN COLD BASINS TO FOLLOW IN THE
DRASTIC WARMING TREND BY MONDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. A STRONGER CHINOOK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS POSSIBLE FOR ALASKA
RANGE PASSES. YET ANOTHER CHINOOK POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH ANOTHER STORM FOR THE WEST COAST WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW.

LIGHT FLOW...FOG...AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WORKS ITS
WAY NORTH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

KA NOV 09

000
FXAK69 PAFG 212347
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PATTERN CHANGE WELL UNDERWAY AS CLOSED LOW ALOFT PRESENTLY SW OF
BARROW DRIFTS SHEARS APART..WITH SOME ENERGY MOVING NORTH AND SOME
SW INTO THE BERING SEA. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM SE ALASKA
NWWD INTO INTERIOR. BY MIDWEEK...CLOSE LOW ALOFT ANCHORED IN THE
SE BERING SEA.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH BY
TUE AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOPING IN GULF OF
ALASKA. FOR NORTHERN ALASKA MID-RANGE GUIDANCE BROADLY IN
AGREEMENT...THO DETAILS DIFFER. BASICALLY...LOW HEIGHT RIDGING
ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET EARLY WINTER
WX.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
MODULATE TEMPS...THO WESTERN ZONES REMAINING COOL. A WEAK CHINOOK PIPELINE
EASTWARD BY TUE.

WEST COAST...MOSITURE SPREADING NWD INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES NEXT
24 HOURS WIITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS SEWARD PEN SOUTHWARD BUT NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
TEMPS TOO WARM FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

INTERIOR...AIRMASS MODERATING FROM SE TO NW THO IN EASTERN ZONES
SOME VALLEYS WILL REMAIN CHILLY FOR LACK OF CLOUDS/MIXING. SOME
INCREASE IN PRES GRAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AMS ALOFT
WARMING ENOUGH THAT NO WIND CHILL PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

RT NOV 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 212332
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
232 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW A 983 MB LOW
SPINNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MAKING LAND FALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER COAST. THE
PRECIP BAND, THAT WAS SEEN ON PACG RADAR THIS MORNING, WITH THE
FRONT IS RELATIVELY NARROW. THE PRECIP HAS JUST REACHED JUNEAU
AND GUSTAVUS, BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND HAS ALREADY REACHED
SITKA. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS IN THE CARDS FOR SITKA FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. PRECIP TYPE SO FAR HAS BEEN ALL SNOW NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KAKE TO PERL STRAIT WITH A MIX TO ALL RAIN SOUTH.
EXCEPT FOR HYDER WHERE IT HAS BEEN SWITCHING BACK AND FORTH FROM
SNOW TO RAIN AND BACK AGAIN MOST OF THE MORNING.

 HIGHEST WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE E-W INNER
CHANNELS, CLARENCE STRAIT AND THE COASTAL WATERS. MOSTLY IN THE
REALM OF SCA WINDS WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS.

 WINDS AND PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
LOW AND THE FRONT WEAKEN AND BREAK APART. THE LOW WILL NOT EVEN
MAKE IT TO SHORE BEFORE IT WEAKENS AWAY TO NOTHING JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL OUTER COAST. EXPECT THAT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE RATHER
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT SO NO ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WHERE SNOW DOES FALL.

 FOR TOMORROW, NORTHERN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. STILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK TROUGH IS STILL
PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH AND EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF. IT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONTAL BANDS
FROM OUR NEXT SYSTEM START MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE GULF.

 FORECAST TODAY WAS UPDATED WITH THE GFS WITH A BIT OF THE EC
BLENDED IN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS LOOKED TO HAVE THE BEST
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE GULF WHILE THE OTHER MODELS PLACED IT
A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST. IT ALSO SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP
OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE EC APPEARED TO HAVE
A BETTER GRASP ON THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SO ELECTED TO
START BLENDING IN MORE EC TOWARD THE HANDOFF WITH THE LONG TERM
DESK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY SINCE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR THE CURRENT SYSTEM, BUT MOST OF THE
MODELS DO NOT QUITE COMPLETELY CAPTURE WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING
ON. AS SUCH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS START
APPEARING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE
GULF WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER FROM LIFTING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND DRIFT DEVELOPING LOWS
INTO THE GULF AND SEND IN WARMER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK. WHERE
CHANGES WERE MADE USED THE 12Z EC THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN BLENDED
THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH HPC. THE REASON FOR THIS WAS THAT THE EC
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS AND THE THE 12Z RUN
KEPT A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IN WED AND THIS FIT WELL WITH
THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS WAS LIFTING THIS SYSTEM NORTH INTO THE NW
GULF MUCH FASTER AND WAS NOT PREFERRED. OTHER WISE THE THERE WAS
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL EC/NAFES AND THE EC
ENSEMBLE SO WITH THAT SAID FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO GOOD.

AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC SUN
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF BY MON AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SE AK SUN NIGHT WITH
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO OVERRUNNING WHILE THE
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INSIDE AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN THE
PRECIP WILL START AND THE SNOW CHANGE TO RAIN. AS THERE WILL BE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
SE. ATTM THE NORTH-CENTRAL INSIDE AREAS WILL SEE POSSIBLE SNOW
ADVY AMOUNTS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND THE PRECIP TURNS TO RAIN. FURTHER NORTH NEAR
PAHN AMOUNTS MAY BE MUCH LARGER WITH AMOUNTS ABOVE HEAVY SNOW
WARNING CRITERIA AND POSSIBLE 2 FT NEAR THE BORDER ALONG THE
HAINES HIGHWAY AND NEAR WHITE PASS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

AS FOR WINDS WITH THE FRONT...GALES FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
E/W CHANNELS WITH MIN SMALL CRAFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES BUT CHANGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MON. OVER THE GULF
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS A BARRIER
JET WILL FORM SUN NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MON AFTERNOON. THE REST
OF THE GULF WILL SEE MAX GALE FORCE WINDS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SW
25KT MON AFTERNOON. OVER LAND THE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE WINDS
INCREASE TO WIND ADVY LEVELS THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS A 70KT LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BUT THE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DECREASE BY MON AFTERNOON BUT THE WINDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS WILL INCREASE AS A RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THERE WILL BE 3/4 MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE PANHANDLE THE WEEK BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS SO MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN BUT THERE MAY BE TIMES OF SOME SNOW
MIXED IN AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL NOT GET ABOVE 3500 FEET. A VERY
STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
ASSOCIATED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WED.
THIS WILL BRING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO THE AREA AND RAISE THE
FREEZING LEVEL TO ABOUT 3500 FEET. AS THAT LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA
THURS ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND IT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY AND OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY.



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-041-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042.

&&

$$

EAL/ABJ

000
FXAK68 PAFC 212250
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

CHANGING PATTERN CONTINUES DUE TO STRONG STORM MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BERING. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PRIBILOFS SPCLY PASN AS TIGHT LOW
CENTER MOVES BY TO THEIR SOUTH. WARMER AIR AND RAIN FORECAST EARLIER
TRIED BUT COULDN`T MATERALIZE DUE TO STORMS SOUTHERN TRACK. AS WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT SNOW FALL SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING NOW OUT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM THE WESTERN CAPES
OF ZONE 161 NORTH ACROSS NUNIVAK ISLAND. LATEST GFS RUN MAINTAINES THE
STORMS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO WESTERN BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
THEN WEAKENS FASTER AND IT MOVES INTO KUSKOKWIM BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A PRETTY GOOD
SNOWFALL ACROSS BOTH ZONES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GULF LOW HANDELED PRETTY WELL BY MODELS BUT THE NEXT ONE THAT ROLLS UP
ON THUESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. LASTEST EC RUN OR THE PERVIOUS GFS RUN
ARE USED BY THE GRID DESKS.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 155 AND  WESTERN CAPES OF 161.
MARINE...STORM AREAS 176..172..175.
GALE AREAS 150..155..160..165..180..170..171..185..179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PERCY NOV 09

000
FXAK68 PAFC 212247
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

CHANGING PATTERN CONTINUES DUE TO STRONG STORM MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BERING. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PRIBILOFS SPCLY PASN AS TIGHT LOW
CENTER MOVES BY TO THEIR SOUTH. WARMER AIR AND RAIN FORECAST EARLIER
TRIED BUT COULDN`T MATERALIZE DUE TO STORMS SOUTHERN TRACK. AS WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT SNOW FALL SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING NOW OUT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM THE WESTERN CAPES
OF ZONE 161 NORTH ACROSS NUNIVAK ISLAND. LATEST GFS RUN MAINTAINES THE
STORMS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO WESTERN BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
THEN WEAKENS FASTER AND IT MOVES INTO KUSKOKWIM BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A PRETTY GOOD
SNOWFALL ACROSS BOTH ZONES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GULF LOW HANDELED PRETTY WELL BY MODELS BUT THE NEXT ONE THAT ROLLS UP
ON THUESDAY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. LASTEST EC RUN OR THE PERVIOUS GFS RUN
ARE USED BY THE GRID DESKS.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 155 AND  WESTERN CAPES OF 161.
MARINE...STORM AREAS 176..172..175.
GALE AREAS 150..155..160..165..180..170..171..185..179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

PERCY NOV 09

000
FXAK68 PAFC 211424
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
525 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS A TROF IS PRESENT OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS AND
OVER THE GULF OF AK...WITH A RIDGE NESTLED IN BETWEEN THROUGH SW AK
AND THE AKPEN. A SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING BRISTOL BAY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND IN THE GULF OF AK IS MOVING EAST AND FILLING. A
SERIES OF STORM-FORCE LOWS ARE IN THE BERING SEA. ONE LOW JUST NORTH
OF ATTU IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND FILLING. THE OTHER WHICH IS JUST
NORTH OF ATKA IS MOVING EAST AND SLIGHTLY DEEPENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE SATISFACTORILY CAPTURING THE MAJOR FEATURES ACROSS THE
AOR. THE LOW SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE SE GULF DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND DISSIPATE AS IT SLIPS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO THE WEST OF ADAK. THE OTHER LOW TO THE NORTH
OF ADAK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AND APPROACH THE COAST OF BRISTOL
BAY ON MONDAY. THE ENERGY FROM THE DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LOOKS TO HELP DEEPEN THE TROF IN THE BERING...AND ALSO
SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THE LOW HEADED TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY. A STORM FORCE LOW
IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND MODELS MOVE THIS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND UP TOWARDS THE KENAI PENINSULA ON
MONDAY. NAM APPEARS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN ROTATING IT UP TOO FAR TO
THE EAST. MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS MORE ON THE GFS THROUGH THE
MID-RANGE PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO THE EC FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BASED ON SATISFACTORY INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE BOWL SATURDAY
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND THEN TAPERING OFF AS THE
MOISTURE FROM THE FEATURE MOVES EAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY EVENING. A STEADIER PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD KODIAK ISLAND AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY
ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STORM-FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE
ZONE. WARMER AIR WITH THIS LOW WILL TRANSITION SNOW TO RAIN ALONG
COASTAL AREAS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA...EASTERN KODIAK ISLAND AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. EASTERLY 850 MB FLOW WILL HELP TO DOWNSLOPE AND RETARD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS.

.SOUTHWEST...
SNOW AND RAIN WITH THE LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING. ARCTIC AIR STILL PREDOMINANT OVER THE KUSKOWIM DELTA/VALLEY
AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY WHERE SNOW LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL AID IN BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COMBINDED WITH
THE FALLING SNOW MAY YIELD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE KUSKOWIM
DELTA COAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN THE WARMER
AIR FURTHER SOUTH...SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE AKPEN AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST...AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW
AGAIN AS THE REMNANT LOW ENTERS BRISTOL BAY ON MONDAY.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE BERING LOWS OVER
THE REGION. STORM-LEVEL WINDS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MARINE ZONES SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FAR WESTERN BERING LOW WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES. RAIN/SNOW OVERSPREADING THE PRIBILOFFS...SATURDAY AND
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE
SOUTH. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AIDING WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT REACH BLIZZARD CRITERIA WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PRIBILOFFS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
STAYING ACTIVE IN THE GULF AND BERING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ESTABLISHES OVER THE AOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE REMAINS POOR DUE TO TIMING ISSUES WITH SYSTEMS AND
LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL CONSISTENCY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
HOWEVER AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE INTERIOR OF AK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH...155
MARINE...STORM...352 172 175 176
         GALE...351 412 413 414 150 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 185
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 180 185

JAM NOV 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 211356
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
456 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...A LOW OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT E TO THE
E-CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE E TO THE OUTER
COAST BY EARLY EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVERNIGHT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST SW OF THE CHARLOTTES LATER
THIS MORNING AND MOVE NE TO THE CENTRAL BC COAST BY LATE EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA WILL BE HOW FAR INLAND PRECIP WILL GET WITH
THE FRONT...AND WHAT IMPACT THE SRN LOW WILL HAVE ON THIS. FRONTAL
BAND IS NOT VERY WIDE ATTM...BUT AS IT INTERACTS WITH COLDER AIR
OVER SE PUBLIC...THE PRECIP WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPAND
SOME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
SRN AREAS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE FAR SERN CORNER MAY SEE
PRECIP HELD UP SOME HOWEVER AS THAT LOW TO THE S MOVES NE...AND
KEEPS FRONT FURTHER W THAN IN AREAS FURTHER N. FLOW ALSO BECOMES
MORE ELY THERE TONIGHT...WITH SOME BACKDOOR COLD ADVECTION
LIKELY...WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIP SOMEWHAT. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ALONG
THE COAST...WITH DECREASING POPS GOING INLAND TONIGHT OVER THE S.

AS FOR PTYPE/AMTS...STILL SOME SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR OVER THE NRN
INNER CHANNELS AND THAT WILL LIKELY NOT GO ANYWHERE...SO THE NRN
THIRD OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE ALL SNOW. SHOULD SEE RAIN OR A
MIX OVER CENTRAL AREA WITH LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS LIKE PAPG WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A COOL ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR MAINLY SNOW. SOUTH SHOULD BE RAIN ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AROUND HYDER. WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED ALONG THE
OUTER COAST...PLACES THAT SEE SNOW SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVY LEVEL
SNOWFALL. GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW SHOULD FALL WHERE
MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE ELY FLOW IS UPSLOPE IN PLACES LIKE HOONAH.

WIND FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY FOR S AREA TONIGHT. PRES GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL FAVOR THE MORE E-W INNER CHANNELS...SO THEY
SHOULD SEE STRONGER WINDS THAN THE N-S ONES. LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL
PEAK AT SCA LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BAND OF GALES IS LIKELY
ON S SIDE OF LOW NEAR SECOND WRAP OF FRONT...BUT THAT WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE FAR SRN OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. THE SRN AREA WINDS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THAT LOW TO THE S GETS...WITH A
POTENTIAL SHIFT FROM SE TO NE TONIGHT. THIS IS MOST LIKELY OVER
THE MORE ERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH RETROGRADES OVER
THE ALASKAN PENINSULA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MID LEVEL STORM TRACK TO BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE AND EACH OF
THE SURFACE LOWS APPROACHING THE GULF OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE
A TENDENCY TO ADVECT INTO THE GULF REMAINING WEST OF 140 IN THE PROCESS.
WITH THE 00Z NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT PREFERRED THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS IT HAD THE MOST
CONSISTENT WESTERN GULF STORM TRACK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 963
MB STORM FORCE LOW ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT
ALSO PREFERRED THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
FURTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z/06Z GFS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS
WERE PRETTY CLOSE WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT STORM FORCE LOW EXCEPT THE
00Z/06Z NAM WHICH WAS A CLEAR OUTLIER BEING 10 MB WEAKER AND 12 TO
18 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT
A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW AT 850 MB THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TRIPLE POINT FEATURE AS IT WILL
HELP TO BRING WIND ADVY GUSTS ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

NEAR HAND OFF WITH SHORT TERM BLENDED MAINLY TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF
TO KEEP A MORE WESTERN GULF TRACK WITH THE STORM FORCE LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL BRING LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER COAST WITH GALES IN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED CHANNELS AND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AS
THE BARRIER FLOW ENHANCES THE 850 MB LLJ. DID DECREASE WINDS FROM
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AS THE
LLJ WILL ONLY BE AROUND 65 KNOTS THERE WHICH SHOULD ONLY TRANSLATE
TO GALE FORCE WINDS. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN FOR THIS
EVENT AS OVERRUNNING COULD LEAD TO QPF AMOUNTS NEAR 0.75 INCHES IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WHILE WARMER AIR WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...COULD SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6 INCHES MAINLY IN THE HAINES AREA BEFORE RAIN
MIXES MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
OVERRUNNING TRAJECTORIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE WARMER
AIR MIXES NORTHWARD. 00Z MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
MOVING INTO THE GULF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AGAIN BRINGING LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE OUTER COAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE RISEN ABOVE -6 C ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY
AND SO THE ONLY RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
BEFORE THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN ADVECTS
WARMER SURFACE AIR NORTHWARD. BY LATE NEXT WEEK 00Z MODELS
INDICATE OTHER STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC AND WESTERN GULF BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE BEST TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
WHICH POINT 00Z MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING/MOVEMENT OF THE 970
TO 960 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ITS PROGRESS INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE RETREATING TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-032>036-041-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042.

&&

$$

RWT/PSS

000
FXAK69 PAFG 211302
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AK WILL FINALLY GET NUDGED OUT THIS WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF GREENLAND WILL ALSO BE ON THE
MOVE AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF THEN LIFT THE INCOMING LOW BACK OUT TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER DROPS A PORTION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH INTO NW ALASKA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND IS COLDER THAN THE GFS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN JET WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND THE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEXT WEEK. THE LARGEST SPREAD IS
NOTED WITH A SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS TAKES
THIS LOW AS FAR NORTH AS SAINT PAUL ISLAND. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH A MORE
ECMWF OUTCOME AS THE MAIN JET IS PRETTY FAR TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL
THIS PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN AK. THE NCEP RMOP BY LATE NEXT
WEEK HAS HIGH MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
AND RELATIVELY LOW MEASURES OF PREDICTABILITY ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

INTERIOR...NEAR RECORD COLD EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
MILDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BUT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE DEEPER BASINS...WHICH WILL
CAUSE DISPERSION PROBLEMS THIS WEEKEND. A TINY WEAK TROUGH SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TODAY...THERE APPEARS
TO BE VERY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WITH THIS TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
BRING A REMOTE CHANCE OF A FLURRY OR TWO FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
EAST OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH COULD MODERATE
TEMPERATURES IN SOME PLACES. ON SUNDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
POKE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO LAKE MINCHUMINA.

SOUTH WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AND SUN...THOUGH AS WINDS INCREASE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RISE...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT WIND SHEAR
COULD BECOME A PROBLEM FOR AVIATORS AS MANY VALLEYS AND BASINS
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL REMAIN COLD AND CALM AS THE MID
LEVEL WINDS SKIP OFF THE TOP OF WELL FORMED INVERSIONS.

WEST COAST...A LOW NEAR POINT HOPE WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. A COLD TROUGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE WEST COAST AFTER THIS LOW DISSIPATES...MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER OPEN WATER WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
PUSHES LOW PRESSURE AND A MORE MODERATE AIRMASS WEST INTO THE
BERING SEA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

NORTH SLOPE...LOW STRATUS FOG AND FLURRIES WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR SNOW FALL OR STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

HYDROLOGY...THE TANANA RIVER IS OUT OF ITS BANKS NEAR RUGER TRAIL
IN SALCHA. NO MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED BUT WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
MANY AREAS IN AND AROUND SALCHA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

KA/CB NOV 09