[top]
000
FXUS64 KMOB 212145 CCA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
CORRECTED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES WAS TRACKING EAST TO
EAST NORTH EAST AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH. LARGE
ENVELOPE OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW NEARS...MORE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. HELICITY
VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH BUT WILL ALMOST NO CAPE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG STORMS UNLESS THE WARM SECTOR CAN MANAGE TO MOVE ONSHORE
BEFORE THE LOW PASSES. IF THIS HAPPENS...SOME STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE PANHANDLE COAST LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST
AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES AWAY. WILL LEAVE SOME CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. HIGH ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUDINESS. /11
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY
DAY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO RAIN IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE A BAND OF CLOUDINESS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SO THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BUT LOWS THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 30S...NEW
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT LOWER BUT WILL WAIT A CYCLE BEFORE BITING. /11
&&
.AVIATION...[18/00Z ISSUANCE]...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE
LOW EASES CLOSER...CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO A BLEND OF IFR/MVFR
LEVELS. VSBYS REDUCED TO IFR LEVELS IN MODERATE RAINS LATER THIS EVENING.
/10
&&
.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO EASE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND
SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW OPENS UP...BROADENS AND WEAKENS AS IT
CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY.
LATEST GRIDDED WIND FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODERATE EAST - NEAR
SHORE...TO SOUTHEAST FLOW - WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TAKE
ON A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SMALL
CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINES AS GRIDDED WIND SPEEDS MEET CRITERIA. SEAS
LOOK TO BE HIGHER BEYOND 20 MILES OUT WHERE THE STRONGER FETCH
EXISTS. WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW
WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TUESDAY...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEAS
WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
/10
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST...MAY SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE PANHANDLE COAST LATE TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STILL DRIER AIR ON MONDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 55 67 50 68 / 80 30 10 10
PENSACOLA 58 68 53 67 / 90 40 10 10
DESTIN 61 70 58 68 / 90 40 10 10
EVERGREEN 52 65 47 67 / 90 60 20 10
WAYNESBORO 52 62 47 67 / 90 40 10 10
CAMDEN 52 61 47 65 / 80 60 20 10
CRESTVIEW 55 70 50 70 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 212123
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES WAS TRACKING EAST TO
EAST NORTH EAST AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH. LARGE
ENVELOPE OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW ELEVATED...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW NEARS...MORE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. HELICITY
VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH BUT WILL ALMOST NO CAPE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG STORMS UNLESS THE WARM SECTOR CAN MANAGE TO MOVE ONSHORE
BEFORE THE LOW PASSES. IF THIS HAPPENS...SOME STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE PANHANDLE COAST LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE
AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST
AS THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES AWAY. WILL LEAVE SOME CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. HIGH ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUDINESS. /11
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY
DAY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NO RAIN IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE A BAND OF CLOUDINESS MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE WEST.
UPPER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SO THE
COLDEST AIR WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BUT LOWS THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 30S...NEW
GUIDANCE WAS A BIT LOWER BUT WILL WAIT A CYCLE BEFORE BITING. /11
&&
.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERALL...CIGS WILL BE IN THE MID LEVELS=> VFR CATEGORIES AND WILL
NOT POSE A HAZARD FOR APPROACHES AND DESCENTS THROUGH 00Z. NO MAJOR
ISSUES WITH FCST WEATHER...-RA OFF AND ON THROUGH 00Z. AS THE LOW
EASES CLOSER...CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO A BLEND OF IFR/MVFR
LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS BEING REDUCED TO IFR LEVELS IN MODERATE
RAINS. /10
&&
.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED ABOUT 150 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO EASE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND
SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW OPENS UP...BROADENS AND WEAKENS AS IT
CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY.
LATEST GRIDDED WIND FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODERATE EAST - NEAR
SHORE...TO SOUTHEAST FLOW - WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TAKE
ON A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SMALL
CRAFT CAUTION HEADLINES AS GRIDDED WIND SPEEDS MEET CRITERIA. SEAS
LOOK TO BE HIGHER BEYOND 20 MILES OUT WHERE THE STRONGER FETCH
EXISTS. WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW
WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TUESDAY...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEAS
WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
/10
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS. WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST...MAY SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE PANHANDLE COAST LATE TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STILL DRIER AIR ON MONDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 55 67 50 68 / 80 30 10 10
PENSACOLA 58 68 53 67 / 90 40 10 10
DESTIN 61 70 58 68 / 90 40 10 10
EVERGREEN 52 65 47 67 / 90 60 20 10
WAYNESBORO 52 62 47 67 / 90 40 10 10
CAMDEN 52 61 47 65 / 80 60 20 10
CRESTVIEW 55 70 50 70 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHUN 212116
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A BIG PICTURE VIEW PER UPPER AIR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A STORMY
PATTERN ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC OCEAN...AS A SERIES OF STORMS MARCH
ACROSS THE 40N-50N REGION INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...AS A STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST. AN UPPER LOW
REFLECTION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WAS EARLIER ANALYZED OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION. ITS SURFACE WAS FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.
THIS SYSTEM WAS SPREADING A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. HYTOP DOPPLER RADAR NOTED SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS NW ALABAMA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 IN ALABAMA. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND OVER THE
GULF COAST...COVERING AN AREA FROM EAST OF HOUSTON AND SHREVEPORT TO
WEST OF MONTGOMERY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDORS OF
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE...RATHER NICE MID FALL WEATHER
PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH 3 PM TEMPS THUS FAR WARMING INTO
THE MID 60S...WITH E-SE WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 MPH.
AT LEAST MOST WILL HAVE A DRY FIRST HALF OF A WEEKEND...AS MORE
CLOUDS AND RAIN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT.
MODEL OUTPUT THIS GO AROUND WAS IN REASONABLY OK AGREEMENT HANDLING
THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD MOVE
ENE TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT AREA NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER DRY THIS
EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THERE. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD RISE TO THE LIKELY RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WITH A CHANCE NORTH OF THERE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN UNDER 1/10 OF AN INCH
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 1/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR
BORDER AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE WET DURING THE MORNING. HAVE
PAINTED LIKELY POPS FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NOON
TOMORROW. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR NE ALABAMA WITH A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES ACROSS. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
SHOULD RANGE UPWARDS TO AN INCH...WITH MORE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS
MORE REALISTIC ON THE BIG PICTURE. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING...A WEAK EAST FLOW WEST OF IT WILL KEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEREFORE HAVE NOTED A LIGHT RAIN/ DRIZZLE
MIX...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW WILL DEVELOP
INTO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING MON/TUE. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY ON TUE...
WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DRIER AND COOL WEATHER SHOULD RETURN IN TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. THE
PRIMARY OBSERVATION LOCATIONS MAY FINALLY FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. THIS IS ONE OF THE LONGER PERIODS...
SIMILAR TO 2002 OF GOING WITHOUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS SO LATE
IN THE SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION... /18Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 18-20 HOURS. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY DROP BEGINNING AROUND 08Z AS PRECIP FROM APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE AREA. VIS/CIG MAY BEGIN TO DROP TO
MVFR BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE INCLUDED A GENERAL TREND WITH
CIGS AT THIS POINT.
&&
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 47 55 48 59 49 / 50 60 20 10 10
SHOALS 46 56 48 61 49 / 50 60 20 10 10
VINEMONT 46 54 47 58 47 / 80 60 20 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 45 54 48 58 47 / 50 60 20 20 10
ALBERTVILLE 48 54 49 58 48 / 80 70 30 20 10
FORT PAYNE 46 53 47 56 47 / 80 70 30 20 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RSB
AVIATION...SL.77
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBMX 212107
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE RAIN AWAY
FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA. SLOWLY BUT SURELY THOUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BEGIN TO SATURATE AND RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS...TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH.
CONTINUE TO BASE THE FORECAST ON THE SREF SOLUTION. IT HAS
PERFORMED MUCH BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR THIS EVENT AS IT HAD A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE AREA. WITH THE DELAY OF THIS SYSTEM...HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT...BUT IT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO RETREAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THOUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COLDER WHICH WILL HELP
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE AND HAVE BACKED OFF ARRIVAL
TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU 23Z WITH ONLY
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY
00Z AND REACH SITES MGM-TOI-TCL. MVFR CONDS WILL SPREAD INTO ALL
SITES BY 03Z MAINLY DUE TO VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN...AS LOWER
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE DUE TO DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. ONCE
RAIN BEGINS...IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z WITH VSBYS 3-5 IN
RAIN/FOG...WITH LCL VSBYS BLO 3 MILES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KMGM AND KTOI BY 09Z...AND THERE IS CHANCE
IFR CIGS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z...BUT
DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL.
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DETERIORATING CONDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
58/ROSE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 45 50 46 58 43 / 70 90 90 10 10
ANNISTON 48 55 48 62 46 / 70 90 90 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 50 55 51 62 49 / 70 90 70 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 52 55 51 63 46 / 80 90 70 10 10
CALERA 52 56 50 63 46 / 80 90 70 10 10
AUBURN 50 52 49 62 48 / 90 90 80 10 10
MONTGOMERY 53 59 50 68 46 / 100 90 70 10 10
TROY 52 60 50 66 45 / 100 90 70 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 211753 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION [18Z ISSUANCE]...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MOVES EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL...CIGS WILL BE
IN THE MID LEVELS=> VFR CATEGORIES AND WILL NOT POSE A HAZARD FOR
APPROACHES AND DESCENTS THROUGH 00Z. NO MAJOR ISSUES WITH FCST
WEATHER...-RA OFF AND ON THROUGH 00Z. AS THE LOW EASES
CLOSER...CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO A BLEND OF IFR/MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS BEING REDUCED TO IFR LEVELS IN MODERATE RAINS.
/10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 61 51 64 49 / 90 80 20 10
PENSACOLA 65 54 67 52 / 80 80 30 10
DESTIN 68 58 69 56 / 60 80 40 10
EVERGREEN 60 49 62 47 / 60 90 30 20
WAYNESBORO 58 49 60 46 / 70 80 30 20
CAMDEN 61 49 59 46 / 40 80 40 20
CRESTVIEW 61 51 69 49 / 60 90 40 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211733
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATED...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN IS STILL BACK IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND IT WILL TAKE IT MOST OF THE DAY TO REACH SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES. AIR MASS IS STILL VERY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF 12Z BMX SOUNDING AT .34 INCHES.
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND ALSO
RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS NORTH OF MONTGOMERY DUE TO LESS CLOUD
COVER.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE AND HAVE BACKED OFF ARRIVAL
TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU 23Z WITH ONLY
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY
00Z AND REACH SITES MGM-TOI-TCL. MVFR CONDS WILL SPREAD INTO ALL
SITES BY 03Z MAINLY DUE TO VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN...AS LOWER
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE DUE TO DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. ONCE
RAIN BEGINS...IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU 18Z WITH VSBYS 3-5 IN
RAIN/FOG...WITH LCL VSBYS BLO 3 MILES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT KMGM AND KTOI BY 09Z...AND THERE IS CHANCE
IFR CIGS COULD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 12Z...BUT
DRIER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP CIGS ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL.
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR DETERIORATING CONDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
58/ROSE
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
000
FXUS64 KHUN 211730 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1130 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 18-20 HOURS.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP BEGINNING AROUND 08Z AS PRECIP FROM
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE AREA. VIS/CIG MAY
BEGIN TO DROP TO MVFR BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE INCLUDED A
GENERAL TREND WITH CIGS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. CURRENT
ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC LOW OVER THE NE PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PLACED JUST TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW.
AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STAYING WELL SOUTH
OF THE REGION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. THE PRECIP
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT MOST PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
THE CIRRUS CANOPY HAS ERODED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THE CANOPY WILL
THICKEN AND MOVE ACROSS N AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...A GENERALLY NICE FALL DAY
WILL RESULT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY CONDITION AND TEMP FORECAST
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SL.77
000
FXUS64 KHUN 211615 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1015 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...FOR CURRENT TEMP/SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACES THE SFC LOW OVER
THE NE PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PLACED
JUST TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW.
AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STAYING WELL SOUTH
OF THE REGION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. THE PRECIP
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT MOST PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
THE CIRRUS CANOPY HAS ERODED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THE CANOPY WILL
THICKEN AND MOVE ACROSS N AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...A GENERALLY NICE FALL DAY
WILL RESULT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE SKY CONDITION AND TEMP FORECAST
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 215 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AS EXPECTED...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR NOT THE NICEST OF WEEKENDS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT TODAY WILL NOT BE BAD...JUST WITH NOT A
LOT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS TODAY WILL IN FACT BE RATHER
MILD...REACHING THE LOWER AND PERHAPS MID 60S. RAIN IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS LIKELY TODAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING ALMOST ALL THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 10 KFT... EXCEPT SOUTH AND WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...SOME PCPN OFF TO THE WEST IN ARKANSAS IS REACHING THE
GROUND IN TRACE AMOUNTS...EVEN OUT OF THE 10 KFT CEILINGS. SO WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE LOST THEIR WAY REGARDING THE APPROACHING GULF COASTAL
SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING AN EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY MOVEMENT THAN
BEFORE...LEAVING PARTS OF THE AREA ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. THIS IS A
TOTAL FLIP FROM PRIOR RUNS. THE NAM IS MORE CONSISTENT BUT ALSO MUCH
SLOWER TO BRING IN PRECIP...NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN SUNDAY.
WILL BE CUTTING BACK POPS EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND
FOCUSING ON THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD. DESPITE CUTTING POPS...I
REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE POPS. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 50.
UPPER LOW COMES ACROSS...IN SOME FORM...ON SUNDAY. GFS IS TOO FAST
WITH THAT MOVEMENT AND WILL NOT BE FOLLOWED. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY
LOOKS CLOUDY...RAW...BREEZY...AND WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. GIVEN
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS. WILL AGAIN
HOLD POPS STEADY IN THE EAST AND TAPER THEM LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPS WILL HARDLY MOVE...STAYING AT BEST IN THE MID 50S. ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS NO FROPA...AND THUS NO
AIRMASS CHANGE. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A NRN STREAM UPPER WAVE
COMING ACROSS. SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE...PERHAPS EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXPAND IT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS MAY APPROACH 60.
EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET...DESPITE THE PATTERN BEING
ACTIVE. AN APPROACHING NRN STREAM COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME TUESDAY /OR MAYBE TUESDAY NIGHT/. NOT A LOT OF
FORCING...BUT FRONTAL FORCING MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE...AND IN THE EAST ONLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS USHERS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH ARE
REINFORCED BY A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THE
WAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER WITH BOTH OF THESE FRONTS
AND FOR NOW...IT IS NOT BEING FOLLOWED. THANKSGIVING AND THE DAY
AFTER LOOK DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY...WITH HIGHS 50 TO 55 AND LOWS 30
TO 35. A BIT OF A WARMUP LOOKS POSSIBLE TO START NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
IT MAY NOT LAST LONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY SHOWN LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../FROM 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ NO CHANGES.
CIRRUS CANOPY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT PCPN AT TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 22/00Z. PRIMARILY LGT
RAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BTWN 06Z AND 12Z.
HOWEVER...MVFR VIS MAY OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IF
MDT RAIN DEVELOPS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
PREV DISCUSSION...JE/23
AVIATION...KDW
UPDATE...SL.77
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211548
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
945 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATED...TODAYS WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN IS STILL BACK IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND IT WILL TAKE IT MOST OF THE DAY TO REACH SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES. AIR MASS IS STILL VERY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF 12Z BMX SOUNDING AT .34 INCHES.
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND ALSO
RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS NORTH OF MONTGOMERY DUE TO LESS CLOUD
COVER.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND APPROACH THE COASTAL
SECTIONS BY LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AND BECOME NUMEROUS AFTER 18Z AT MGM AND
TOI. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ALL SECTIONS AFTER
00Z. CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 5000 FEET AT ALL SITES
BY 18Z. AS SHOWERS INCREASE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z AT ALL SITES.
KSL
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211307
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
707 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATED...FOR HOURLY GRID UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THE ONLY THING WE`RE SEEING THIS MORNING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITS OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THAT IS WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. RADAR IS SHOWING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO COME INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
BUT AS DRY AS IT IS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL
DRY UP BEFORE THEY REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
ALONG THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TIMING. MEX GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH SLOWER TONIGHT AND I AM INCLINED
TO FOLLOW SUIT AS DRY AS IT IS...SO I WILL BACK OFF RAIN FOR TODAY
AND PUSH MOST OF IT OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS
FAR AS TONIGHT IS CONCERNED...AND REALLY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WE SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AS WE WILL
REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WHICH MEANS WE STAY
OUT OF ANY WARM SECTOR AND REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THOSE CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST EVERYONE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO THE DAY
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY...AND THIS IS JUST TO COINCIDE WITH THE
OVERALL SLOW DOWN OF THE SYSTEM.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA. STORM TOTALS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 1.5 - 2 INCHES ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA...WITH MOST
EVERYONE SEEING ABOUT ONE INCH.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAYS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ROCKY
MOUNTAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL DRY UP BEFORE IT EVEN GETS HERE...LEAVING RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW. THE ONE THING IT WILL BRING WITH IT IS SOME
DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT PRODUCES TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO ROTATE ANOTHER VORT MAX NORTH OF THE STATE...WHICH
SHOULD GIVE CENTRAL ALABAMA A SECONDARY SHOT OF DRY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ARE SETTING UP TO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING THINGS TO GET
COLD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE.
THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND`S WEATHER MAKER...THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING WEEK LOOKS
TO BE DRY.
27
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND APPROACH THE COASTAL
SECTIONS BY LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AND BECOME NUMEROUS AFTER 18Z AT MGM AND
TOI. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ALL SECTIONS AFTER
00Z. CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 5000 FEET AT ALL SITES
BY 18Z. AS SHOWERS INCREASE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z AT ALL SITES.
KSL
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 211147 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
547 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIRRUS CANOPY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER/THICKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LVLS WILL
LIKELY PREVENT PCPN AT TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 22/00Z. PRIMARILY LGT
RAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BTWN 06Z AND 12Z.
HOWEVER...MVFR VIS MAY OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IF
MDT RAIN DEVELOPS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AS EXPECTED...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR NOT THE NICEST OF WEEKENDS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT TODAY WILL NOT BE BAD...JUST WITH NOT A
LOT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS TODAY WILL IN FACT BE RATHER
MILD...REACHING THE LOWER AND PERHAPS MID 60S. RAIN IS LOOKING
LESS AND LESS LIKELY TODAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING ALMOST ALL THE
MOISTURE ABOVE 10 KFT... EXCEPT SOUTH AND WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...SOME PCPN OFF TO THE WEST IN ARKANSAS IS REACHING THE
GROUND IN TRACE AMOUNTS...EVEN OUT OF THE 10 KFT CEILINGS. SO WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE LOST THEIR WAY REGARDING THE APPROACHING GULF COASTAL
SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING AN EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY MOVEMENT THAN
BEFORE...LEAVING PARTS OF THE AREA ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. THIS IS A
TOTAL FLIP FROM PRIOR RUNS. THE NAM IS MORE CONSISTENT BUT ALSO MUCH
SLOWER TO BRING IN PRECIP...NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN SUNDAY.
WILL BE CUTTING BACK POPS EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND
FOCUSING ON THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD. DESPITE CUTTING POPS...I
REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE POPS. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 50.
UPPER LOW COMES ACROSS...IN SOME FORM...ON SUNDAY. GFS IS TOO FAST
WITH THAT MOVEMENT AND WILL NOT BE FOLLOWED. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY
LOOKS CLOUDY...RAW...BREEZY...AND WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. GIVEN
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS. WILL AGAIN
HOLD POPS STEADY IN THE EAST AND TAPER THEM LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPS WILL HARDLY MOVE...STAYING AT BEST IN THE MID 50S. ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS NO FROPA...AND THUS NO
AIRMASS CHANGE. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A NRN STREAM UPPER WAVE
COMING ACROSS. SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE...PERHAPS EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXPAND IT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS MAY APPROACH 60.
EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET...DESPITE THE PATTERN BEING
ACTIVE. AN APPROACHING NRN STREAM COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME TUESDAY /OR MAYBE TUESDAY NIGHT/. NOT A LOT OF
FORCING...BUT FRONTAL FORCING MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE...AND IN THE EAST ONLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS USHERS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH ARE
REINFORCED BY A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THE
WAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER WITH BOTH OF THESE FRONTS
AND FOR NOW...IT IS NOT BEING FOLLOWED. THANKSGIVING AND THE DAY
AFTER LOOK DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY...WITH HIGHS 50 TO 55 AND LOWS 30
TO 35. A BIT OF A WARMUP LOOKS POSSIBLE TO START NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
IT MAY NOT LAST LONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY SHOWN LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KDW
DISCUSSION...JE/23
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211133
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATED...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THE ONLY THING WE`RE SEEING THIS MORNING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITS OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THAT IS WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. RADAR IS SHOWING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO COME INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
BUT AS DRY AS IT IS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL
DRY UP BEFORE THEY REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
ALONG THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TIMING. MEX GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH SLOWER TONIGHT AND I AM INCLINED
TO FOLLOW SUIT AS DRY AS IT IS...SO I WILL BACK OFF RAIN FOR TODAY
AND PUSH MOST OF IT OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS
FAR AS TONIGHT IS CONCERNED...AND REALLY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WE SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AS WE WILL
REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WHICH MEANS WE STAY
OUT OF ANY WARM SECTOR AND REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THOSE CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST EVERYONE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO THE DAY
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY...AND THIS IS JUST TO COINCIDE WITH THE
OVERALL SLOW DOWN OF THE SYSTEM.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA. STORM TOTALS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 1.5 - 2 INCHES ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA...WITH MOST
EVERYONE SEEING ABOUT ONE INCH.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAYS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ROCKY
MOUNTAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL DRY UP BEFORE IT EVEN GETS HERE...LEAVING RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW. THE ONE THING IT WILL BRING WITH IT IS SOME
DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT PRODUCES TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO ROTATE ANOTHER VORT MAX NORTH OF THE STATE...WHICH
SHOULD GIVE CENTRAL ALABAMA A SECONDARY SHOT OF DRY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ARE SETTING UP TO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING THINGS TO GET
COLD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE.
THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND`S WEATHER MAKER...THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING WEEK LOOKS
TO BE DRY.
27
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND APPROACH THE COASTAL
SECTIONS BY LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AND BECOME NUMEROUS AFTER 18Z AT MGM AND
TOI. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ALL SECTIONS AFTER
00Z. CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 5000 FEET AT ALL SITES
BY 18Z. AS SHOWERS INCREASE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS DEVELOP...MAINLY
AFTER 00Z AT ALL SITES.
KSL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 58 46 56 45 64 / 20 80 60 40 20
ANNISTON 61 47 56 44 64 / 20 90 60 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 61 48 56 45 65 / 30 80 50 30 10
TUSCALOOSA 60 50 60 46 68 / 40 80 40 20 10
CALERA 59 50 57 45 65 / 40 90 40 20 10
AUBURN 60 49 57 46 65 / 60 100 50 30 10
MONTGOMERY 61 51 62 47 69 / 70 90 40 20 10
TROY 61 51 62 47 69 / 80 90 30 20 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/50
000
FXUS64 KMOB 211111
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST WV/IR LOOPS DEPICT SFC LOW
OVER THE NW GULF SOUTH OF IAH AND LCH MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO EMERGE
GENERALLY STRETCHING SE TO EAST MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF.
TO THE NORTH BROAD SFC TO H5 RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND SE CONUS CONTINUES TO GIVE WAY TO COLD AIR DAMMING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS ALLOWING MAIN UPPER TROF/LOW TO TRACK WEST OF
THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS LATER TONIGHT...GENERALLY WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WHILE ATTENDANT SFC LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF
EVENTUALLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
BEGINS TO FILL NEAR OR SOUTH OF MOB AND PNS LATER TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT SFC WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND STALL SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUS GIVING WAY
TO MOSTLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEAR THE WARM FRONT
GENERALLY JUST OFFSHORE A FEW ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE MAIN
CONCERN OVER LAND THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. AS FOR TEMPS WILL GO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN MAVMOS NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND STAY CLOSE TO
THE CURRENT 00Z GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT. WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON THE
WORDING IN THE HWO ABOUT HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES AND SEVERE WEATHER
THAT WAS ANTICIPATED EARLIER IN THE WEEK. /32
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING RETURNED
CLOSER TO THE MORE REASONABLE AND RUN-TO-RUN STABILITY OF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG
THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/GEM/NAM ON THE SURFACE LOW MOVING GENERALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY THEN
SLOWING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET EJECTS OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. WITH DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND INTO THE SYSTEM...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED AND LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT RAIN OTHERWISE
PREVAILING. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
LAYER LIFTED WRAP AROUND RAINS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES EASTWARD...AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING THEN
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OCCLUDES WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK JUST SHY OF
BEING SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT PRECIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY FORECAST. THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF
INTO QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAINTAINING A DEEP
LAYER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER A
SOMEWHAT MILD DAY ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. /29
&&
.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOVING MOSTLY TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BUILD LATER
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BECOMING MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. /32
&&
.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY AND BECOME
MOSTLY EAST EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG AT TIMES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A WARM FRONT WHICH STALLS OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. /32
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY TREND DRIER
THROUGH TUESDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 61 51 64 49 / 90 80 20 10
PENSACOLA 65 54 67 52 / 80 80 30 10
DESTIN 68 58 69 56 / 60 80 40 10
EVERGREEN 60 49 62 47 / 60 90 30 20
WAYNESBORO 58 49 60 46 / 70 80 30 20
CAMDEN 61 49 59 46 / 40 80 40 20
CRESTVIEW 61 51 69 49 / 60 90 40 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 211015
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
415 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THE ONLY THING WE`RE SEEING THIS MORNING ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITS OUT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
THAT IS WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED. RADAR IS SHOWING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO COME INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
BUT AS DRY AS IT IS...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL
DRY UP BEFORE THEY REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
ALONG THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT CHANGE IN
TIMING. MEX GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH SLOWER TONIGHT AND I AM INCLINED
TO FOLLOW SUIT AS DRY AS IT IS...SO I WILL BACK OFF RAIN FOR TODAY
AND PUSH MOST OF IT OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS
FAR AS TONIGHT IS CONCERNED...AND REALLY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
SYSTEM...WE SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AS WE WILL
REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WHICH MEANS WE STAY
OUT OF ANY WARM SECTOR AND REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THOSE CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST EVERYONE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO THE DAY
ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY...AND THIS IS JUST TO COINCIDE WITH THE
OVERALL SLOW DOWN OF THE SYSTEM.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE CWA. STORM TOTALS
SHOULD NOT EXCEED 1.5 - 2 INCHES ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA...WITH MOST
EVERYONE SEEING ABOUT ONE INCH.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAYS SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ROCKY
MOUNTAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL DRY UP BEFORE IT EVEN GETS HERE...LEAVING RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW. THE ONE THING IT WILL BRING WITH IT IS SOME
DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT PRODUCES TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO ROTATE ANOTHER VORT MAX NORTH OF THE STATE...WHICH
SHOULD GIVE CENTRAL ALABAMA A SECONDARY SHOT OF DRY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ARE SETTING UP TO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING THINGS TO GET
COLD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE.
THE GOOD NEWS IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND`S WEATHER MAKER...THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING WEEK LOOKS
TO BE DRY.
27
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD BR/VIS PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF REDUCED VIS AT ANB AND TCL...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DO NOT
THINK IT WILL BECOME A PROBLEM. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION BR IN THE
FORECAST. AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY EARLY EVENING. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE
VIS TO LOWER THAN MVFR.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 58 46 56 45 64 / 20 80 60 40 20
ANNISTON 61 47 56 44 64 / 20 90 60 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 61 48 56 45 65 / 30 80 50 30 10
TUSCALOOSA 60 50 60 46 68 / 40 80 40 20 10
CALERA 59 50 57 45 65 / 40 90 40 20 10
AUBURN 60 49 57 46 65 / 60 100 50 30 10
MONTGOMERY 61 51 62 47 69 / 70 90 40 20 10
TROY 61 51 62 47 69 / 80 90 30 20 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/14
000
FXUS64 KHUN 210817
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AS EXPECTED...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR NOT THE NICEST OF WEEKENDS. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT TODAY WILL NOT BE BAD...JUST WITH NOT A LOT
OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS TODAY WILL IN FACT BE RATHER MILD...REACHING THE
LOWER AND PERHAPS MID 60S. RAIN IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY
TODAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING ALMOST ALL THE MOISTURE ABOVE 10 KFT...
EXCEPT SOUTH AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL REMOVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...SOME PCPN OFF TO THE WEST IN ARKANSAS
IS REACHING THE GROUND IN TRACE AMOUNTS...EVEN OUT OF THE 10 KFT
CEILINGS. SO WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE LOST THEIR WAY REGARDING THE APPROACHING GULF COASTAL
SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING AN EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY MOVEMENT THAN
BEFORE...LEAVING PARTS OF THE AREA ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. THIS IS A
TOTAL FLIP FROM PRIOR RUNS. THE NAM IS MORE CONSISTENT BUT ALSO MUCH
SLOWER TO BRING IN PRECIP...NOT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN SUNDAY.
WILL BE CUTTING BACK POPS EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND
FOCUSING ON THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD. DESPITE CUTTING POPS...I
REMAIN ABOVE ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE POPS. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE...LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 50.
UPPER LOW COMES ACROSS...IN SOME FORM...ON SUNDAY. GFS IS TOO FAST
WITH THAT MOVEMENT AND WILL NOT BE FOLLOWED. IN GENERAL...SUNDAY
LOOKS CLOUDY...RAW...BREEZY...AND WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. GIVEN
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS. WILL AGAIN
HOLD POPS STEADY IN THE EAST AND TAPER THEM LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPS WILL HARDLY MOVE...STAYING AT BEST IN THE MID 50S. ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE IS NO FROPA...AND THUS NO
AIRMASS CHANGE. MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW A NRN STREAM UPPER WAVE
COMING ACROSS. SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE...PERHAPS EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR DRIZZLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXPAND IT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS MAY APPROACH 60.
EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS QUIET...DESPITE THE PATTERN BEING
ACTIVE. AN APPROACHING NRN STREAM COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME TUESDAY /OR MAYBE TUESDAY NIGHT/. NOT A LOT OF
FORCING...BUT FRONTAL FORCING MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE...AND IN THE EAST ONLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS USHERS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH ARE
REINFORCED BY A STRONGER DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THE
WAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER WITH BOTH OF THESE FRONTS
AND FOR NOW...IT IS NOT BEING FOLLOWED. THANKSGIVING AND THE DAY
AFTER LOOK DRY BUT RATHER CHILLY...WITH HIGHS 50 TO 55 AND LOWS 30
TO 35. A BIT OF A WARMUP LOOKS POSSIBLE TO START NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
IT MAY NOT LAST LONG WITH ANOTHER FRONT CURRENTLY SHOWN LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 64 50 55 48 59 / 5 70 50 20 10
SHOALS 64 50 56 48 62 / 5 60 40 20 10
VINEMONT 62 49 54 47 58 / 10 70 60 20 10
FAYETTEVILLE 62 48 54 48 58 / 0 50 40 20 10
ALBERTVILLE 62 50 54 49 59 / 10 80 60 20 20
FORT PAYNE 63 49 54 47 56 / 10 80 60 20 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JE/23
000
FXUS64 KBMX 210543
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1143 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. BUT NOW
THE CLOUDS ARE REALLY STARTING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. THUS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE BOTTOMING OUT (OR AT LEAST
LEVELING OFF) IN THE WEST NOW (WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED UP
THE MOST)...BUT THERE MAY BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF COOLING IN THE
EAST. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE...BUT I PLAN ON LEAVING THE LOW TEMP
FORECAST ALONE (UNLESS SOMETHING SOON GETS OUT OF HAND ON THE LOW
SIDE).
RAIN AT THE MOMENT IS ONLY AS NEAR AS NEW ORLEANS. THERE`S A SMALL
CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOMETHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES (MEANING...MEASURABLE RAIN) BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. I DON`T THINK THAT CHANCE IS QUITE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST RIGHT NOW THOUGH.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD BR/VIS PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF REDUCED VIS AT ANB AND TCL...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DO NOT
THINK IT WILL BECOME A PROBLEM. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION BR IN THE
FORECAST. AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
BY EARLY EVENING. RAIN WILL BE LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE
VIS TO LOWER THAN MVFR.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 210520 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...EVEN WITH GENERAL CLOUDINESS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE SW...CEILINGS ARE XPCTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR LIMITS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO APPROACH THE TN
VALLEY FROM THE SW STARTING AROUND 00Z SUN...BUT PRECIP COVERAGE IS
NOT XPCTED TO INCREASE SIG UNTIL 06Z OR LATER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER OUT OF THE SW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE WRN GULF HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DRIFT TOWARD THE
NE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TURNING MORE EWD DURING THE DAY SAT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS THEN MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...WITH THE ONCOMING CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE TRICKY ALTHOUGH CURRENT DEW PT READINGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SAT MORNING HOVERING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE XPCTED DEW PT VALUES GIVEN
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE THESE
TRENDS REPRESENTED WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KHUN 210312 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
915 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER OUT OF THE SW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE WRN GULF HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...ALTHOUGH MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DRIFT TOWARD THE
NE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TURNING MORE EWD DURING THE DAY SAT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS THEN MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME...WITH THE ONCOMING CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE TRICKY ALTHOUGH CURRENT DEW PT READINGS SUGGEST TEMPS
SAT MORNING HOVERING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE XPCTED DEW PT VALUES GIVEN
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE THESE
TRENDS REPRESENTED WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE XPCTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY
NEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUN...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT
OF THE WRN GULF BEGINS TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
REGION. ANY CEILINGS THOUGH ARE XPCTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR LIMITS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KBMX 210217
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
817 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC TONIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. BUT NOW
THE CLOUDS ARE REALLY STARTING TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. THUS...TEMPERATURES MAY BE BOTTOMING OUT (OR AT LEAST
LEVELING OFF) IN THE WEST NOW (WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED UP
THE MOST)...BUT THERE MAY BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF COOLING IN THE
EAST. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE...BUT I PLAN ON LEAVING THE LOW TEMP
FORECAST ALONE (UNLESS SOMETHING SOON GETS OUT OF HAND ON THE LOW
SIDE).
RAIN AT THE MOMENT IS ONLY AS NEAR AS NEW ORLEANS. THERE`S A SMALL
CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD GET SOMETHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES (MEANING...MEASURABLE RAIN) BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. I DON`T THINK THAT CHANCE IS QUITE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST RIGHT NOW THOUGH.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD BR/VIS PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW HOURS OF BCFG AT TCL. AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 202338
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
538 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE AREA. BIG QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR AS RAIN
CHANCES GO. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WANTING TO BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NAM AND SREF ARE NOT
NEARLY AS FAST. IN FACT...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION
(WHEN ADDING THE ENSEMBLE MODELS). GIVEN THAT A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL...WILL BASE
THE FORECAST ON THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT RAIN SHOULD HOLD UP UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS NOT OCCURRING UNTIL MUCH LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE LATEST SREF WANTS TO BRING THE
MAIN BULK OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO EXPECT RAIN CHANCES
TO REMAIN QUITE LOW.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN ON THURSDAY WHEN A MUCH
STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH GIVING WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD BR/VIS PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH...CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW HOURS OF BCFG AT TCL. AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 202314 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
515 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUDS ARE XPCTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY
NEWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUN...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT
OF THE WRN GULF BEGINS TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST
REGION. ANY CEILINGS THOUGH ARE XPCTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR LIMITS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE CWA. NEXT WX MAKER (UPPER LOW) FOR THE TN
VALLEY IS NOW OVER TX...WHICH WAS PRODUCING INCREASING CI CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THESE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. NO RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO VERY DRY LOW/MID LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE TRICKY PART WILL BE
TIMING. NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN BRINGING IN
THE PCPN. BOTH MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK TO DRY FOR PCPN UNTIL ARND
00Z SATURDAY EVENING. ATTM WILL TAKE A COMBO BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS AND KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR SATURDAY AFTN. THEN WILL GO WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY
(4TH PERIOD)...AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR CWA.
IF NAM IS CORRECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE GFS SHOWS PCPN/CLOUDS TAPERING OFF.
AGAIN WILL TAKE A BLEND OF NAM/GFS AND KEEP LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES NE ON MONDAY LOOK FOR A
MILD AND DRY DAY. GFS HAS A CDFNT FRONT QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AND OUT OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED/GULF CLOSED OFF...ON TUESDAY AND MAY NOT SEE ANY
PCPN AT ALL. BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FROM TUESDAY MRNG
THRU TUESDAY AFTN.
AFTER THE CDFNT MOVES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH
COOLER BUT DRY WX IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WITH AFTN
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE 30S. ALSO EXPECT A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
ONE GOOD THING TO NOTE...ATTM NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED THRU THE
ENTIRE FCST PACKAGE.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...09
DISCUSSION...07
000
FXUS64 KBMX 202135
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
335 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE AREA. BIG QUESTION MARKS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR AS RAIN
CHANCES GO. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WANTING TO BRING RAIN
INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NAM AND SREF ARE NOT
NEARLY AS FAST. IN FACT...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION
(WHEN ADDING THE ENSEMBLE MODELS). GIVEN THAT A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL...WILL BASE
THE FORECAST ON THE SLOWER SOLUTION.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT RAIN SHOULD HOLD UP UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS NOT OCCURRING UNTIL MUCH LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THE LATEST SREF WANTS TO BRING THE
MAIN BULK OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO EXPECT RAIN CHANCES
TO REMAIN QUITE LOW.
THE WEAK FRONT WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN ON THURSDAY WHEN A MUCH
STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH GIVING WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO AL THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH ARRIVES SAT. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CIGS LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. BY MIDDAY...WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM OUR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM S/SW. MAINLY RAIN...BUT
BY SAT NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW TSRA ACROSS S.
08
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 39 58 46 55 42 / 0 60 90 40 20
ANNISTON 43 61 47 59 42 / 0 70 90 40 20
BIRMINGHAM 46 61 48 60 46 / 10 70 90 40 10
TUSCALOOSA 46 60 50 62 42 / 10 80 80 30 10
CALERA 46 59 50 60 45 / 10 80 80 30 10
AUBURN 48 60 49 58 46 / 0 90 90 40 10
MONTGOMERY 46 61 51 62 45 / 10 90 80 20 10
TROY 44 61 51 60 46 / 10 80 80 20 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 202110
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW GETS ORGANIZED OFF THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST AS STRONG UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND OUT OVER THE WEST GULF. HAVE OPTED TO TRY AND BLEND THE NAM AND
ECMWF LOW POSITION FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BOTH MODELS TAKE
SURFACE LOW TO NEAR MOBILE THEN WEAKENS IT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT
PULLS AWAY. EITHER WAY...RAIN LOOKS DEFINITE ON SATURDAY AS ALL THE
MODEL DATA HAS A SURFACE LOW WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT INITIALLY
MOVING INTO A MODERATELY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONGER
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL
SECTIONS. SURFACE LOW WINDS UP AND GOES EAST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THEN THE CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LESS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...LIKELY ELEVATED. MAY BE SOME
LINGERING RAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING OR EVEN AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT ALL RAIN TO BE GONE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. COOL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 60S WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST IN THE RAIN. LOWS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MOST PLACES. /11
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST
BY MID WEEK BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH WITH NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW.
NO POPS IN CURRENT EXTENDED AND WILL LET RIDE FOR THIS CYCLE. /11
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (MVFR) AFFECTING MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS 06Z
THROUGH 12Z SAT. LOW CLOUD CIG MORE PREVALENT BY 12Z SAT WITH MVFR
TO IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z SAT THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
INCREASING BY 12Z SAT. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE GRADUALLY
INCREASING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF SATURDAY AND INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...OCCURRING MOSTLY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHTER FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE
AREA...BUT ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RAIN OVER ALL THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HUMIDITY REMAINING
ELEVATED...ABOVE 60 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 51 61 49 63 / 30 100 40 20
PENSACOLA 54 65 53 64 / 30 100 50 20
DESTIN 55 67 57 64 / 30 90 60 20
EVERGREEN 45 60 50 61 / 20 90 60 20
WAYNESBORO 47 59 47 63 / 30 90 60 10
CAMDEN 46 60 49 61 / 20 90 60 20
CRESTVIEW 48 64 52 64 / 20 90 60 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201927
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE CWA. NEXT WX MAKER (UPPER LOW) FOR THE TN
VALLEY IS NOW OVER TX...WHICH WAS PRODUCING INCREASING CI CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THESE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. NO RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO VERY DRY LOW/MID LAYERS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT THE TRICKY PART WILL BE
TIMING. NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN BRINGING IN
THE PCPN. BOTH MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK TO DRY FOR PCPN UNTIL ARND
00Z SATURDAY EVENING. ATTM WILL TAKE A COMBO BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS AND KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR SATURDAY AFTN. THEN WILL GO WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY
(4TH PERIOD)...AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. ATTM
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR CWA.
IF NAM IS CORRECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE GFS SHOWS PCPN/CLOUDS TAPERING OFF.
AGAIN WILL TAKE A BLEND OF NAM/GFS AND KEEP LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY THRU FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES NE ON MONDAY LOOK FOR A
MILD AND DRY DAY. GFS HAS A CDFNT FRONT QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...AND OUT OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED/GULF CLOSED OFF...ON TUESDAY AND MAY NOT SEE ANY
PCPN AT ALL. BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FROM TUESDAY MRNG
THRU TUESDAY AFTN.
AFTER THE CDFNT MOVES OUT OF THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH
COOLER BUT DRY WX IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WITH AFTN
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND MRNG LOWS IN THE 30S. ALSO EXPECT A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
ONE GOOD THING TO NOTE...ATTM NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED THRU THE
ENTIRE FCST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 43 59 48 58 47 / 0 20 80 70 20
SHOALS 42 58 49 58 48 / 0 20 80 70 20
VINEMONT 43 60 50 58 49 / 0 20 80 70 20
FAYETTEVILLE 41 58 49 56 47 / 0 20 80 70 20
ALBERTVILLE 44 58 49 58 48 / 0 20 80 70 20
FORT PAYNE 41 58 48 57 47 / 0 20 80 70 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201744 AAC
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 1115 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
FORECAST IS RUNNING RIGHT ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO AL THIS MORNING. CLOUDINESS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH ARRIVES SAT. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CIGS LOWERING IN THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. BY MIDDAY...WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM OUR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM S/SW. MAINLY RAIN...BUT
BY SAT NIGHT COULD SEE A FEW TSRA ACROSS S.
08
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201733 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1135 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SYSTEM OVER
TEXAS...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1023 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA CONTINUES TO RULE THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES FROM THE 16Z OBS HAVE COME IN QUITE
WARM...59 AT HSV/58 AT DCU. THAT SAID...THE OBS FROM TENNESSEE ARE
RUNNING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES COOLER...AND FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR
BLINDLY INCREASINGLY FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON THE
HIGH CLOUDS SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SO...DEPENDING ON
HOW THICK THAT CIRRUS DECK GETS...IT MIGHT PUT AN ABRUPT END TO THE
PRECIPITOUS INCREASE IN TEMPS. OPTED TO BUMP UP HIGHS JUST A
SMIDGE...BUT STILL MOST OF THE LOWLAND SPOTS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. UPDATED ZONES FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JLL
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201715
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS RUNNING RIGHT ON TRACK THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A COUPLE OF SITES...MGM AND ANB...CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH AREAS OF FOG.
THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CIRRUS AS A
STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201624 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1023 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
INCREASED TEMPS A SMIDGE
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA CONTINUES TO RULE THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES FROM THE 16Z OBS HAVE COME IN QUITE
WARM...59 AT HSV/58 AT DCU. THAT SAID...THE OBS FROM TENNESSEE ARE
RUNNING ABOUT FIVE DEGREES COOLER...AND FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR
BLINDLY INCREASINGLY FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON THE
HIGH CLOUDS SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SO...DEPENDING ON
HOW THICK THAT CIRRUS DECK GETS...IT MIGHT PUT AN ABRUPT END TO THE
PRECIPITOUS INCREASE IN TEMPS. OPTED TO BUMP UP HIGHS JUST A
SMIDGE...BUT STILL MOST OF THE LOWLAND SPOTS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. UPDATED ZONES FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FROM 12Z AVIATION/
RADIATIONAL FOG ALONG NEAR THE TN RIVER CHANNEL IS AFFECTING TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. FOG IS TYPICALLY DENSER AT KMSL...WHERE LIFR
CONDITIONS EXIST. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT KHSV AND 15Z AT
KMSL. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KDW
DISCUSSION...JLL
000
FXUS64 KHUN 201143 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
543 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADIATIONAL FOG ALONG NEAR THE TN RIVER CHANNEL IS AFFECTING TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. FOG IS TYPICALLY DENSER AT KMSL...WHERE LIFR
CONDITIONS EXIST. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT KHSV AND 15Z AT
KMSL. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS START OUT THIS FINAL DAY
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COOLER VALLEYS...AT LEAST...WILL SEE ANOTHER
FREEZE THIS MORNING. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE FIRST REAL COLD SNAP OF THE FALL LATER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL...AND PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...PERHAPS BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER WAVE NOW
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THOSE CLOUDS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN
IS UNLIKELY DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.
THAT DRY PROFILE WILL ALSO HINDER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. THE GFS
IS SUPER-AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING IN OVERRUNNING RAIN...WHILE THE
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUPPORT THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN...SO WILL CARRY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING /EXCEPT THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA/...AND THEN BETTER
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FRANKLIN/CULLMAN COUNTIES
WHERE SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY.
RAIN IS NEARLY GUARANTEED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES
GENERALLY OVERHEAD...AND MOISTURE CONTINUES SPREADING NORTHWARD.
TSTMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE IN SRN AL.
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
WAVE WEAKENS AND SLOWLY EXITS. SINCE THERE IS NO FROPA...THE
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SCOURED OUT...SO I THINK SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE
A NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE. WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE ROUGHLY EAST OF HUNTSVILLE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS AROUND 50.
EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY CLEAR ON MONDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE CLEARING...
MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN OUR LUCK /OR LACK
THEREOF/ WITH CLOUDS CLEARING LATELY...WILL FOLLOW A SLOWER CLEARING
TREND AND THUS TEMPER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AM NOT BUYING THE
STRENGTH/CLOSEDNESS OF THE UPPER LOW DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...AND
WILL FOLLOW A WEAKER AND FASTER OPEN WAVE. THIS PUTS RAIN CHANCES
PERHAPS VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
ONLY RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT DUE TO FRONTAL FORCING. WILL JUST
PLACE A 20 POP ON TUESDAY...AND DRY BOTH NIGHTS AROUND IT.
COOLER TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LIKELY PASSES THROUGH
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH NO MOISTURE RETURN...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
FAST FACT...
TO DATE...NOT COUNTING TODAY...THERE HAVE BEEN 161 DAYS WITH RAIN
(INCLUDING TRACE AMOUNTS) AT HUNTSVILLE SO FAR THIS YEAR OUT OF A
POSSIBLE 323...AN AMAZING 50 PERCENT. THIS IS THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF
WET DAYS AT THIS POINT IN THE YEAR WE CAN FIND ON RECORD. THE RECORD
FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR IS 175 DAYS...SET IN 1961. TAKING OUT TRACES
DROPS THE NUMBER TO 117 YEAR-TO-DATE...25 SHY OF A YEAR-ENDING
RECORD OF 142 DAYS SET IN 1957.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KDW
DISCUSSION...JE/23
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201135
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONE MORE NICE DAY ON TAP BEFORE WET PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST TODAY AND THE
AREA WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WILL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WET PATTERN DEVELOPS AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE A DEEPER LOW THIS RUN AND A MUCH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS IN VICINITY OF PASSING SURFACE LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL COME FROM 4 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR SPREADS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH IN THE NORTH AND ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH IN THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S AND THEN 55 TO 65 ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INDICATED WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THANKSGIVING DAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF SOME COOLER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN 55 TO
60 ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A COUPLE OF SITES, MGM AND ANB, CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH AREAS OF
FOG. THIS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CIRRUS AS A
STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH EXPIRES AT 8 AM.
&&
$$
50/88
000
FXUS64 KMOB 201100
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST WV/IR LOOPS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TX COAST IN
RESPONSE TO NEXT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR TX AND DEEPENING SFC LOW FORMING NEAR THE TX COAST AND
OFFSHORE. THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
PLACING MAIN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL TX/LA COAST BY 12Z SAT WITH
DEEPENING SFC LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE TX COAST OR JUST
OFFSHORE...THUS GIVING WAY TO MAINLY AN INCREASING A PRES/MOISTURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE AL AND NWFL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. WITH THIS
PATTERN...INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LAYER
LIFT IS NOTED AHEAD THIS SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SAT...POSSIBLY GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
RAINSHOWERS MOSTLY ELEVATED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
EARLY SAT MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THROUGH
12Z SAT WILL BE OVER SE MS AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF MOBILE COUNTY
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD BEYOND 60 NM SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND. WITH SFC
RIDGE HOLDING STRONG DIURNALLY TO THE NE LIMITED INSTABILITY CAN BE
EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL GO SLIGHTLY COOLER THEN THE MAVMOS FOR
HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND BETTER CLOUDINESS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...AND STAY CLOSE OR GO SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN THE
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH BETTER CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. /32
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
AND UKMET HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW GENERALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THIS HAS CHANGED. THE GFS HAS
SINCE DEVIATED AND THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT IS FASTER THAN ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE AND TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THEN
NORTHWARD ACROSS ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY. HPC PREFERS THE ECMWF
WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
ALSO HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT UKMET AS WELL...AND
HAVE USED THE ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF MOVES THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY THEN EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TO NEAR THE COAST ON SATURDAY THEN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE A SOURCE OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WHERE SOME OF THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME...THE 850 MB FLOW LOOKS WEAKER...AT BEST
30 KNOTS ALTHOUGH THERE IS PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH MAY RESULT IN 0-1 KM HELICITIES AS HIGH AS 200 M2/S2.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL THOUGH WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES GENERALLY
LESS THAN 300 J/KG GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE WARM
FRONT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER OFFSHORE AND UP TO AROUND 900 J/KG. SPC
NOTES THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE BETTER MARINE
ENVIRONMENT AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NOW BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY ELEVATED...OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WILL HAVE POPS
INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY...HIGH POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE WITH MID
SIXTIES NEAR THE COAST FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY TAPERING TO THE LOWER
SIXTIES INLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...BOTH
BLENDING WELL WITH NEIGHBORS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID FIFTIES NEAR THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS TAPERING TO
MID FORTIES OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION. /29
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A DRY RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
THEN A PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
BRINGS A DRY AND WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION. /29
&&
.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MOSTLY MOB AND
BFM AND AREAS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH 12Z SAT. A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
SAT THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND BUILD BY 12Z SAT. /32
&&
.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND BUILD SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND COASTAL AREAS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING BECOMING NORTH AND GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH
MIDWEEK. /32
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY
BUT WILL NOT SATISFY DURATION CRITERIA. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 52 66 52 / 00 30 80 80
PENSACOLA 68 54 68 55 / 00 20 70 80
DESTIN 68 57 68 58 / 00 20 60 80
EVERGREEN 67 45 64 51 / 00 10 70 80
WAYNESBORO 64 48 60 47 / 00 20 80 70
CAMDEN 66 46 61 50 / 00 10 70 80
CRESTVIEW 69 48 68 54 / 00 20 70 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200849
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
245 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ONE MORE NICE DAY ON TAP BEFORE WET PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST TODAY AND THE
AREA WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WILL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE 40S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WET PATTERN DEVELOPS AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
AND MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE A DEEPER LOW THIS RUN AND A MUCH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS IN VICINITY OF PASSING SURFACE LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL COME FROM 4 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR SPREADS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH IN THE NORTH AND ONE HALF
TO ONE INCH IN THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S AND THEN 55 TO 65 ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INDICATED WILL
ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THANKSGIVING DAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF SOME COOLER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THEN 55 TO
60 ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG IS DEVELOPING IN PLACES
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...GENERALLY NEAR THE USUAL PROBLEM SPOTS...
ANB/TCL/TOI. WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT TCL AND TOI. ANB
APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A BCFG PROBLEM AS VIS READINGS ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT. WITH FOG...MVFR VIS IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH...BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AT ANB. FOG WILL
QUICKLY LIFT WITH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 6 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM IN TX.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 66 43 60 47 59 / 0 10 60 90 40
ANNISTON 65 42 61 51 60 / 0 10 70 90 40
BIRMINGHAM 67 44 61 50 59 / 0 10 70 90 30
TUSCALOOSA 68 45 61 52 61 / 0 10 70 80 30
CALERA 67 45 61 51 60 / 0 10 70 90 30
AUBURN 68 44 62 52 61 / 0 10 80 90 40
MONTGOMERY 68 48 63 52 63 / 0 10 80 80 30
TROY 68 47 64 52 63 / 0 10 80 80 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH EXPIRES AT 8 AM.
&&
$$
50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200805
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
205 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS START OUT THIS FINAL DAY
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COOLER VALLEYS...AT LEAST...WILL SEE ANOTHER
FREEZE THIS MORNING. WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE FIRST REAL COLD SNAP OF THE FALL LATER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL...AND PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...PERHAPS BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY LATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER WAVE NOW
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THOSE CLOUDS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN
IS UNLIKELY DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE.
THAT DRY PROFILE WILL ALSO HINDER RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. THE GFS
IS SUPER-AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING IN OVERRUNNING RAIN...WHILE THE
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SUPPORT THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN...SO WILL CARRY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE MORNING /EXCEPT THE SW CORNER OF THE CWFA/...AND THEN BETTER
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FRANKLIN/CULLMAN COUNTIES
WHERE SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY.
RAIN IS NEARLY GUARANTEED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES
GENERALLY OVERHEAD...AND MOISTURE CONTINUES SPREADING NORTHWARD.
TSTMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH SHOULD BE IN SRN AL.
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
WAVE WEAKENS AND SLOWLY EXITS. SINCE THERE IS NO FROPA...THE
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SCOURED OUT...SO I THINK SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE
A NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE. WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE ROUGHLY EAST OF HUNTSVILLE. TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL NOT
MOVE MUCH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS AROUND 50.
EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY CLEAR ON MONDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE CLEARING...
MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN OUR LUCK /OR LACK
THEREOF/ WITH CLOUDS CLEARING LATELY...WILL FOLLOW A SLOWER CLEARING
TREND AND THUS TEMPER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AM NOT BUYING THE
STRENGTH/CLOSEDNESS OF THE UPPER LOW DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...AND
WILL FOLLOW A WEAKER AND FASTER OPEN WAVE. THIS PUTS RAIN CHANCES
PERHAPS VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
ONLY RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT DUE TO FRONTAL FORCING. WILL JUST
PLACE A 20 POP ON TUESDAY...AND DRY BOTH NIGHTS AROUND IT.
COOLER TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...
AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT LIKELY PASSES THROUGH
ON THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH NO MOISTURE RETURN...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.
FAST FACT...
TO DATE...NOT COUNTING TODAY...THERE HAVE BEEN 161 DAYS WITH RAIN
(INCLUDING TRACE AMOUNTS) AT HUNTSVILLE SO FAR THIS YEAR OUT OF A
POSSIBLE 323...AN AMAZING 50 PERCENT. THIS IS THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF
WET DAYS AT THIS POINT IN THE YEAR WE CAN FIND ON RECORD. THE RECORD
FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR IS 175 DAYS...SET IN 1961. TAKING OUT TRACES
DROPS THE NUMBER TO 117 YEAR-TO-DATE...25 SHY OF A YEAR-ENDING
RECORD OF 142 DAYS SET IN 1957.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 65 44 58 50 58 / 0 0 30 90 60
SHOALS 65 42 58 50 58 / 0 0 40 90 40
VINEMONT 64 42 58 50 57 / 0 0 50 90 40
FAYETTEVILLE 63 42 58 49 56 / 0 0 30 90 60
ALBERTVILLE 64 44 58 50 58 / 0 0 40 90 50
FORT PAYNE 63 41 58 49 57 / 0 0 30 90 60
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JE/23
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200526
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1126 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS IN FINE SHAPE...AND NO BIG
CHANGES ARE PLANNED. TEMPS DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN
FORECAST...BUT I THINK FORECAST LOWS ARE STILL IN THE BALLPARK. THE
FEW CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE COVER LITTLE AREA...AND ARE
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...TO HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE IMPACT.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG IS DEVELOPING IN PLACES
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...GENERALLY NEAR THE USUAL PROBLEM SPOTS...
ANB/TCL/TOI. WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT TCL AND TOI. ANB
APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A BCFG PROBLEM AS VIS READINGS ARE FLUCTUATING
QUITE A BIT. WITH FOG...MVFR VIS IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH...BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AT ANB. FOG WILL
QUICKLY LIFT WITH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 6 KTS BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM IN TX.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO
GARDENDALE TO LAFAYETTE FROM 3 AM TONIGHT TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200515 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1115 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED THROUGH 06Z SAT. ONLY XCPTION
WILL BE THE KMSL TERMINAL WHERE MVFR VIS/CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09-13Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SE REGION/CNTRL TN VALLEY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY SW
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. SKIES ARE CLR AND SFC WINDS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEW PTS TO BEGIN FALLING
TOWARD THEIR FORECASTED LOWS. FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO HAVE THIS
SYNOPTIC TREND REPRESENTED WELL AND NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200301 CCA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
900 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SE REGION/CNTRL TN VALLEY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY SW
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. SKIES ARE CLR AND SFC WINDS HAVE PRETTY
MUCH DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEW PTS TO BEGIN FALLING
TOWARD THEIR FORECASTED LOWS. FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO HAVE THIS
SYNOPTIC TREND REPRESENTED WELL AND NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED THROUGH 00Z FRI. ONLY XCPTION
WILL BE THE KMSL TERMINAL WHERE BRIEF MVFR VIS/CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 10-13Z FRI.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KHUN 200259 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
900 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SE REGION/CNTRL TN VALLEY REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY SW
TO THE
MUCH DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS/DEW PTS TO BEGIN FALLING
TOWARD THEIR FORECASTED LOWS. FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO HAVE THIS
SYNOPTIC TREND REPRESENTED WELL AND NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS
ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED THROUGH 00Z FRI. ONLY XCPTION
WILL BE THE KMSL TERMINAL WHERE BRIEF MVFR VIS/CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 10-13Z FRI.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200134
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
734 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS IN FINE SHAPE...AND NO BIG
CHANGES ARE PLANNED. TEMPS DROPPED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN
FORECAST...BUT I THINK FORECAST LOWS ARE STILL IN THE BALLPARK. THE
FEW CLOUDS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE COVER LITTLE AREA...AND ARE
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY...TO HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE IMPACT.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE EXISTS A SMALL CHANCE OF FOG AT ANB LATE
TONIGHT REDUCING VIS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 5 KTS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO
GARDENDALE TO LAFAYETTE FROM 3 AM TONIGHT TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 192330 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
530 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED THROUGH 00Z FRI. ONLY XCPTION
WILL BE THE KMSL TERMINAL WHERE BRIEF MVFR VIS/CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 10-13Z FRI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY TRAIPSING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
SO WHILE THESE CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...BY LATE TONIGHT...THE
MERCURY WILL DIP INTO THE 30S. A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THOSE SECLUDED SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL PUSH INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS
ADVANCING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THAT SAID...BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES AWAY FROM THE VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT TIMING/LOCATION OF FEATURES PAST THE
WEEKEND...SO DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. DID HOWEVER
OPT TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS MAIN LOBE OF ENERGY AND
MOISTURE REMAIN WELL NORTH OF HERE...AND THEN DECIDED TO INCREASE
POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR A WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST MID-WEEK. WHILE GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON TIMING OF FRONTS
NEXT WEEK...BOTH INDICATE EAST COAST TROUGHING TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...FOR A RELATIVELY COOL START TO THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...09
DISCUSSION...JLL
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192317
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
517 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF OF TODAY...ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE PATCHY
FROST AFTER 3 AM WITH A RAPID WARMUP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES BY NOON SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
OVERNIGHT...AS A GULF LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE TEXAS COAST
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING ONE INCH WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN AREAS...WITH
VALUES OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE FIRST SHOWERS MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED
RAIN EVENT SHOULD APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AROUND SUNRISE.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PW IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
GFS ENSEMBLES CLUSTER THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS THE
MONTGOMERY AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA COULD EXPERIENCE BETWEEN 18 AND 24 HOURS OF RAINFALL. AT
THIS TIME...RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THESE EXPECTED
TOTALS NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...SO WE WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY VERBIAGE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FOR THE DEER HUNTERS EXPECT MORNING LOWS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WIND EARLY...INCREASING TO ONLY AROUND 5 MPH
FROM THE NORTHEAST BY 10 AM. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES. FULL
RAIN GEAR WILL SURELY BE IN ORDER...HAVE FUN AND HUNT SAFELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST EAST ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER UNTIL MONDAY. NEXT WEEK...A COUPLE OF MOISTURE
DEFICIENT COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ONE ON
TUESDAY AND ANOTHER BY THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT WITH EITHER SYSTEM...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE EXISTS A SMALL CHANCE OF FOG AT ANB LATE
TONIGHT REDUCING VIS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE...CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 5 KTS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO
GARDENDALE TO LAFAYETTE FROM 3 AM TONIGHT TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 192155
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...
RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT BUT PERHAPS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS THE AIRMASS HAS MODIFIED SLIGHTLY. THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME FROST AGAIN BY MORNING OVER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...BUT SINCE MOST INTERIOR ZONES LIKELY SAW FROST THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY. ANOTHER NICE DAY SHAPING
UP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
EAST...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF BY
LATE FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY SOME ON THE TIMING AND
EXACT MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOVING FURTHER
INLAND INTO CENTRAL MS/AL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PROJECTED
TRACK IS FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AND
WILL POSSIBLY INCREASE SOME OF THE IMPACTS ACROSS OUR REGION.
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH UPON OUR COASTAL
ZONES...MOVING INLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS IS CONCERNING
CONSIDERING THIS PUTS PART OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MORE
THAN AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
WARM FRONT. THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR INSTABILITY
VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AS ANY SUSTAINED
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY ROTATE GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE POOR...WHICH
WILL NOT HELP CAPE VALUES. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND SREF INDICATE THAT
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING MLCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO REALIZE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT. ALSO...WE WILL HAVE FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
DEVELOP AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH
WILL AID IN UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. WHILE NO FORMAL SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN ISSUED BY SPC...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MAKE MENTION
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AGAIN...THE THREAT IS ISOLATED AT
THIS TIME...BUT STILL WORTH MONITORING.
ANOTHER CONCERN WITH A MORE WESTWARD LOW TRACK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. WE ARE ENTERING ANOTHER SPRING TIDE CYCLE WITH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS HIGH AS 1.5 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IF A 20 KT
SOUTHERLY FLOW MATERIALIZES...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE TYPICALLY PRONE COASTAL FLOODING LOCATIONS.
ALSO HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO. THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THIS THREAT GIVEN THE TIME/LOCATION VARIANCES
WHICH STILL EXIST IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE ONE MORE CERTAIN ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL. SUFFICIENT
DYNAMICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY POPS CARRYING THROUGH THE EVENING
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AS MUCH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS.
FOLLOWED MAV MOS CLOSELY ON TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 34/JFB
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY AS THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE MID LEVEL
WAVE BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT. COULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 84 AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AND MOISTURE PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S EXPECTED.
A QUIET WEATHER REGIME EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
THIS RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS.
BY THURSDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN STATES...
SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY NEXT THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO
DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE LOOK PRESENT FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO
EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING DOWN JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. THE OPERATION GLOBAL
MODELS ALONG WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THE LONG RANGE. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. /10
&&
.MARINE...RECREATIONAL BOATING ACTIVITIES FOR THE WEEKEND
UNFORTUNATELY LOOK TO BE RUNNING INTO A SNAG. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...FORECAST TO FORM OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SATURDAY...MOVES
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW EARLY ON...BECOMES ONSHORE AND
INCREASES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH RESULTS IN A BUILDING TREND IN SEAS INTO THE
WEEKEND. THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. THERE ARE
ALSO INDICATIONS THAT SOME MARINE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
WEEKEND TIME PERIOD COULD SPAWN ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE LOW
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FOLLOWING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AND A LOWERING TREND IN SEAS. /10
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND DROPPING AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO AROUND 35 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT...RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE FRIDAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
A SOAKING RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 42 68 51 66 / 00 00 30 80
PENSACOLA 45 69 53 68 / 00 00 20 80
DESTIN 49 67 55 69 / 00 00 10 80
EVERGREEN 36 68 46 65 / 00 00 10 80
WAYNESBORO 35 67 47 62 / 00 00 20 80
CAMDEN 36 67 46 62 / 00 00 10 80
CRESTVIEW 38 70 49 67 / 00 00 10 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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