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000
FXUS64 KLZK 211934
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
134 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST...WITH UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE STILL IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY
AND LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AND THINK THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
REDUCED. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR
MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING ANY MORE.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT INITIALLY BEFORE DIVERGING
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. GFS PATTERN IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED VERSUS THE ECMWF AND DROPS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER
LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY VERSUS THE
ECMWF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH GFS ADVERTISING A NEARLY DRY ZONAL FLOW WITH ECMWF SHOWING
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THIS PERIOD WITH
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCES BUT LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH ONE UPPER LOW PULLING OUT AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND IT WILL ONLY BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.
AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEEPEN PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A COOL BUT DRY TURKEY DAY. AS UPPER
LOW PULLS OUT...FLOW DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES ZONAL TO END THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY AT THIS POINT BUT POPS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADDED IF ECMWF IS INDEED THE BETTER CHOICE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL BEYOND.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 211738
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH OF THE STATE TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WESTERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES WITH THE EAST
THE LAST TO SEE DRYING CONDITIONS. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THEN
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT 88D RADARS DEPICTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF
COAST WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST. STRONGEST CONVECTION CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TX AND ROTATING
ENERGY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAS
MOISTENED UP TO NEAR ONE INCH FOR PRECIP WATER...WITH A LIGHT
VEERING PROFILE...WHILE QUITE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NOT SEEING MUCH
LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME...AND DONT EXPECT MUCH OVER AR DUE TO
STABLE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY EXPECTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NORTH AR
TODAY...WHILE TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTH AR. MAINLY
WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
RAIN OR SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. MODELS DO
CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST UPPER ENERGY OVER LA TO LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CONVECTION. OVER
AR...ENERGY WILL SHEAR OUT...HENCE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS OVER AR.
MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER LA...WITH SOME ENERGY
INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AR. POP HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST...THEN A BIT NORTHEAST...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AR SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW MAINLY EAST...BECOMING A BIT NORTHEAST...
BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY TO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SEEN WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MEAN FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
REACHES AR. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...AND OVERALL POP AND
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. SOME FRONTAL TIMING SEEN IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH GFS A BIT FASTER. FORECAST GENERALLY WENT WITH A BIT
FASTER TREND OF GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT COOLING TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. BEHIND
THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 64 43 62 43 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 61 45 66 44 / 50 30 10 10
HARRISON AR 62 41 63 44 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 43 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 44 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 61 46 65 43 / 50 30 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 63 42 64 44 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 42 62 44 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 65 44 61 43 / 20 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 62 45 64 43 / 40 30 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 42 64 44 / 20 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 64 44 62 44 / 20 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 64 45 63 43 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 211110
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
510 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THEN
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT 88D RADARS DEPICTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF
COAST WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST. STRONGEST CONVECTION CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TX AND ROTATING
ENERGY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAS
MOISTENED UP TO NEAR ONE INCH FOR PRECIP WATER...WITH A LIGHT
VEERING PROFILE...WHILE QUITE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NOT SEEING MUCH
LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME...AND DONT EXPECT MUCH OVER AR DUE TO
STABLE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY EXPECTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NORTH AR
TODAY...WHILE TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTH AR. MAINLY
WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
RAIN OR SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. MODELS DO
CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST UPPER ENERGY OVER LA TO LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CONVECTION. OVER
AR...ENERGY WILL SHEAR OUT...HENCE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS OVER AR.
MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER LA...WITH SOME ENERGY
INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AR. POP HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST...THEN A BIT NORTHEAST...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AR SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW MAINLY EAST...BECOMING A BIT NORTHEAST...
BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY TO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SEEN WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MEAN FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
REACHES AR. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...AND OVERALL POP AND
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. SOME FRONTAL TIMING SEEN IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH GFS A BIT FASTER. FORECAST GENERALLY WENT WITH A BIT
FASTER TREND OF GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT COOLING TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. BEHIND
THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 61 43 62 43 / 20 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 62 45 66 44 / 60 50 10 10
HARRISON AR 58 41 63 44 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 43 64 44 / 40 30 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 44 64 44 / 30 30 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 62 46 65 43 / 50 50 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 61 42 64 44 / 40 30 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 42 62 44 / 20 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 62 44 61 43 / 20 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 62 45 64 43 / 40 40 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 42 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 61 44 62 44 / 30 30 10 10
STUTTGART AR 62 45 63 43 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210845
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THEN
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT 88D RADARS DEPICTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF
COAST WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST. STRONGEST CONVECTION CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TX AND ROTATING
ENERGY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAS
MOISTENED UP TO NEAR ONE INCH FOR PRECIP WATER...WITH A LIGHT
VEERING PROFILE...WHILE QUITE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NOT SEEING MUCH
LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME...AND DONT EXPECT MUCH OVER AR DUE TO
STABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY EXPECTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NORTH AR
TODAY...WHILE TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTH AR. MAINLY
WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
RAIN OR SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. MODELS DO
CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST UPPER ENERGY OVER LA TO LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CONVECTION. OVER
AR...ENERGY WILL SHEAR OUT...HENCE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS OVER AR.
MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER LA...WITH SOME ENERGY
INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AR. POP HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST...THEN A BIT NORTHEAST...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AR SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW MAINLY EAST...BECOMING A BIT NORTHEAST...
BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY TO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SEEN WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MEAN FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
REACHES AR. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...AND OVERALL POP AND
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. SOME FRONTAL TIMING SEEN IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH GFS A BIT FASTER. FORECAST GENERALLY WENT WITH A BIT
FASTER TREND OF GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT COOLING TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. BEHIND
THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 43 62 43 / 20 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 62 45 66 44 / 40 30 10 10
HARRISON AR 60 41 63 44 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 43 65 44 / 30 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 44 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 62 46 65 43 / 50 40 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 61 42 65 44 / 30 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 42 62 44 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 60 44 61 43 / 20 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 61 45 64 43 / 30 30 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 42 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 60 44 62 44 / 30 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 61 45 63 43 / 40 30 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210525
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUDS WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS MUCH OF THE FA DURG THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. PATCHY LGT RAIN WL ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY OVR THE NRN
HALF OF AR. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD...WITH PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR EXPECTED TO SEE OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TNGT AND
EARLY SAT MRNG. WINDS WL BE LGT E/NELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ON SAT.
LOW PRES MOVG EWD ALONG THE GLF COAST COULD BRING SOME LGT RAIN INTO
SERN AR TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD ACROSS WRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR
DUE TO ONGOING -SHRA ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARDS MORNING. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA FOR
MUCH OF SAT. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW OTHER MINOR CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO CONTEND
WITH. FIRST UP IS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALSO
GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
NAM SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS DONE THE OPPOSITE...MOVING THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND SPEEDING IT UP. BASED ON THE MODEL TRENDS AND
PERFORMANCES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GFS BUT NOT
QUITE AS FAST AS THE MODEL IS SHOWING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT EVEN HERE ...ONLY SCATTERED
POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER VERSUS
DAYS PAST WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
FOLLOWING THE FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BEING SHOWN BY THE
GFS...I WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WILL SWING WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
COME MONDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN ADVANCING H5 TROF THAT WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AS THE TROF EJECTS EAST...THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE PERIOD ENDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM...THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE
LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN IS TRENDING MORE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION. FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY...AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE TO
START OFF THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL ONLY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 66 47 60 43 / 20 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 63 50 62 45 / 30 40 40 30
HARRISON AR 63 48 60 41 / 20 30 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 49 61 43 / 30 40 30 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 49 61 44 / 30 30 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 61 50 62 46 / 20 40 40 40
MOUNT IDA AR 60 49 61 42 / 40 50 30 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 48 60 42 / 20 30 10 10
NEWPORT AR 66 46 60 44 / 20 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 62 49 61 45 / 30 30 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 50 60 42 / 50 50 20 20
SEARCY AR 66 48 60 44 / 30 30 20 20
STUTTGART AR 64 48 61 45 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210246
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
846 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD ACROSS WRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR
DUE TO ONGOING -SHRA ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARDS MORNING. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA FOR
MUCH OF SAT. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW OTHER MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVR MUCH OF THE FA THRU THE PD.
THE EXCEPTION WL BE OVR PARTS OF NRN AR WHERE PTCHY LGT RAIN
OVERNIGHT WL PRODUCE OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. A STORM SYS WL PASS S
OF AR LATE SAT. SOME LOW CLOUDS/ISOLD SHRA ASSOCD WITH THIS SYS
COULD AFFECT PARTS OF SERN AR SAT AFTN. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO CONTEND
WITH. FIRST UP IS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALSO
GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
NAM SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS DONE THE OPPOSITE...MOVING THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND SPEEDING IT UP. BASED ON THE MODEL TRENDS AND
PERFORMANCES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GFS BUT NOT
QUITE AS FAST AS THE MODEL IS SHOWING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT EVEN HERE ...ONLY SCATTERED
POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER VERSUS
DAYS PAST WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
FOLLOWING THE FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BEING SHOWN BY THE
GFS...I WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WILL SWING WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
COME MONDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN ADVANCING H5 TROF THAT WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AS THE TROF EJECTS EAST...THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE PERIOD ENDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM...THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE
LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN IS TRENDING MORE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION. FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY...AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE TO
START OFF THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL ONLY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 47 60 43 62 / 20 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 50 62 45 66 / 40 40 30 10
HARRISON AR 48 60 41 63 / 30 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 61 43 65 / 40 30 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 61 44 64 / 30 20 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 50 62 46 65 / 40 40 40 10
MOUNT IDA AR 49 61 42 65 / 50 30 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 48 60 42 62 / 30 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 46 60 44 61 / 20 20 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 49 61 45 64 / 30 30 30 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 60 42 64 / 50 20 20 10
SEARCY AR 48 60 44 62 / 30 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 48 61 45 63 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
62
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210000
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVR MUCH OF THE FA THRU THE PD.
THE EXCEPTION WL BE OVR PARTS OF NRN AR WHERE PTCHY LGT RAIN
OVERNIGHT WL PRODUCE OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. A STORM SYS WL PASS S
OF AR LATE SAT. SOME LOW CLOUDS/ISOLD SHRA ASSOCD WITH THIS SYS
COULD AFFECT PARTS OF SERN AR SAT AFTN. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO CONTEND WITH. FIRST
UP IS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALSO GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER
OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
TROUGH APPROACHES.
NAM SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS DONE THE OPPOSITE...MOVING THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND SPEEDING IT UP. BASED ON THE MODEL TRENDS AND
PERFORMANCES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GFS BUT NOT
QUITE AS FAST AS THE MODEL IS SHOWING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT EVEN HERE ...ONLY SCATTERED
POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER VERSUS
DAYS PAST WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
FOLLOWING THE FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BEING SHOWN BY THE
GFS...I WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WILL SWING WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
COME MONDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN ADVANCING H5 TROF THAT WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AS THE TROF EJECTS EAST...THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE PERIOD ENDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM...THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE
LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN IS TRENDING MORE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION. FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY...AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE TO
START OFF THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL ONLY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLZK 202014
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
213 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO CONTEND WITH. FIRST
UP IS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALSO GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER
OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS
TROUGH APPROACHES.
NAM SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS DONE THE OPPOSITE...MOVING THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND SPEEDING IT UP. BASED ON THE MODEL TRENDS AND
PERFORMANCES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GFS BUT NOT
QUITE AS FAST AS THE MODEL IS SHOWING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT EVEN HERE ...ONLY SCATTERED
POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER VERSUS
DAYS PAST WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
FOLLOWING THE FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BEING SHOWN BY THE
GFS...I WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WILL SWING WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
COME MONDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN ADVANCING H5 TROF THAT WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AS THE TROF EJECTS EAST...THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE PERIOD ENDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM...THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE
LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN IS TRENDING MORE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION. FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY...AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE TO
START OFF THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL ONLY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 44 60 43 62 / 10 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 47 62 45 66 / 40 40 30 10
HARRISON AR 45 60 41 63 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 61 43 65 / 30 30 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 61 44 64 / 20 20 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 46 62 46 65 / 30 30 40 10
MOUNT IDA AR 46 61 42 65 / 30 30 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 44 60 42 62 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 44 60 44 61 / 10 20 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 46 61 45 64 / 30 30 30 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 60 42 64 / 20 20 20 10
SEARCY AR 45 60 44 62 / 20 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 45 61 45 63 / 20 30 30 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 201742 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AND WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR PRECIP TO FOLLOW. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE WESTERN SITES...AND WILL MONITOR FOR
INCLUSION AT THE OTHER SITES. MAIN LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
STATE ON SATURDAY...WITH RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES JUST
PAST THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO TO CENTRAL MEXICO
AND POINTS NORTH AND CONTINUING ITS EASTERN PUSH. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SURFACE LOW CONTAINING TO GET ORGANIZED OFF THE
TEXAS COAST WITH CLOUD SHIELD NOW COVERING MOST OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
AS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST...EXPECTING
THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. RADAR
SHOWING ADVANCING AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN NOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. UPDATE NEEDED TO BOOST POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.
WILL ALSO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES CENTRAL AND NORTH WHERE CURRENT OBS
INDICATE FORE CASTED HIGHS ALREADY BEING APPROACHED IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLOUDS. UPDATES OUT.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 201623
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1023 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO TO CENTRAL MEXICO
AND POINTS NORTH AND CONTINUING ITS EASTERN PUSH. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SURFACE LOW CONTAINING TO GET ORGANIZED OFF THE
TEXAS COAST WITH CLOUD SHIELD NOW COVERING MOST OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
AS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST...EXPECTING
THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. RADAR
SHOWING ADVANCING AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN NOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. UPDATE NEEDED TO BOOST POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.
WILL ALSO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES CENTRAL AND NORTH WHERE CURRENT OBS
INDICATE FORE CASTED HIGHS ALREADY BEING APPROACHED IN ADVANCE OF
THE CLOUDS. UPDATES OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MVFR BRIEFLY TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...AS
LOW CLOUDS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE STATE...AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SHOWERS OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN AR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE
STABLE AND AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST...JUST
SHOWERS. COLD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THE FARTHER SOUTH IN
THE STATE...AND MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. MODELS KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH AND MAINLY ALONG THE GULF OF MEX...WHILE
SOME ENERGY ROTATES OVER AR FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. PRECIP
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOLD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH EAST SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PUSH OUT OF AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW...WITH AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO
MAINLY LESS THAN ONE INCH. THEN DRY REST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS...AND
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. THIS FRONT REACHES AR LATE MONDAY AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES REACH
CHANCE CAT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE
LOW...GENERALLY FROM A TENTH TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL START AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NATURAL STATE TO START THE
LONG TERM. SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 62 46 60 44 / 20 20 10 20
CAMDEN AR 61 47 62 46 / 30 30 40 40
HARRISON AR 61 45 60 42 / 30 20 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 47 61 44 / 30 30 30 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 64 47 61 45 / 20 20 30 30
MONTICELLO AR 62 47 62 47 / 20 30 40 40
MOUNT IDA AR 64 46 61 43 / 30 30 40 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 45 60 43 / 20 20 10 20
NEWPORT AR 63 46 60 45 / 20 20 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 63 47 61 46 / 20 30 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 46 60 43 / 30 20 20 20
SEARCY AR 64 47 60 44 / 20 20 20 20
STUTTGART AR 64 47 61 46 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 201118
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
518 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MVFR BRIEFLY TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...AS
LOW CLOUDS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE STATE...AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
OKLAHOMA. A FEW SHOWERS OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN AR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE
STABLE AND AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST...JUST
SHOWERS. COLD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THE FARTHER SOUTH IN
THE STATE...AND MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. MODELS KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH AND MAINLY ALONG THE GULF OF MEX...WHILE
SOME ENERGY ROTATES OVER AR FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. PRECIP
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOLD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH EAST SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PUSH OUT OF AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW...WITH AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO
MAINLY LESS THAN ONE INCH. THEN DRY REST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS...AND
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. THIS FRONT REACHES AR LATE MONDAY AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES REACH
CHANCE CAT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE
LOW...GENERALLY FROM A TENTH TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL START AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NATURAL STATE TO START THE
LONG TERM. SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 46 60 44 / 20 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 64 47 62 46 / 30 30 40 40
HARRISON AR 58 45 60 42 / 30 20 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 47 61 44 / 30 20 30 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 47 61 45 / 20 20 30 30
MONTICELLO AR 65 47 62 47 / 20 20 40 40
MOUNT IDA AR 61 46 61 43 / 30 20 40 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 45 60 43 / 20 10 10 20
NEWPORT AR 60 46 60 45 / 20 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 63 47 61 46 / 20 20 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 46 60 43 / 30 20 20 20
SEARCY AR 60 47 60 44 / 20 20 20 20
STUTTGART AR 62 47 61 46 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 200840
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN AR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST AND SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE
STABLE AND AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST...JUST
SHOWERS. COLD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THE FARTHER SOUTH IN
THE STATE...AND MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER. MODELS KEEP THE
SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH AND MAINLY ALONG THE GULF OF MEX...WHILE
SOME ENERGY ROTATES OVER AR FROM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. PRECIP
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOLD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY PUSH EAST SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PUSH OUT OF AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW...WITH AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO
MAINLY LESS THAN ONE INCH. THEN DRY REST OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS...AND
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH. THIS FRONT REACHES AR LATE MONDAY AND
PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES REACH
CHANCE CAT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE
LOW...GENERALLY FROM A TENTH TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL START AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NATURAL STATE TO START THE
LONG TERM. SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 46 60 44 / 20 10 10 20
CAMDEN AR 64 47 62 46 / 30 30 40 40
HARRISON AR 58 45 60 42 / 30 20 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 47 61 44 / 30 20 30 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 47 61 45 / 20 20 30 30
MONTICELLO AR 65 47 62 47 / 20 20 40 40
MOUNT IDA AR 61 46 61 43 / 30 20 40 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 45 60 43 / 20 10 10 20
NEWPORT AR 60 46 60 45 / 20 10 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 63 47 61 46 / 20 20 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 46 60 43 / 30 20 20 20
SEARCY AR 60 47 60 44 / 20 20 20 20
STUTTGART AR 62 47 61 46 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 200522
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1122 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS FM THE W OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO
RMN MOSTLY AT VFR LVLS. MVFR CIGS COULD FORM LATER IN THE NGT OVR
PARTS OF NRN AND WRN AR AND LINGER INTO MID MRNG ON FRI. BULK OF
SHRA ACTIVITY WL RMN W OF THE FA THRU THE PD...BUT OPTED TO MENTION
VCSH AT KHRO AND KBPK AFT 15Z. MVFR CIGS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SHRA
ACTIVITY. LGT E/SELY WINDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS PESKY UPPER LOW THAT PLAGUED THE AREA
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEDGE OF DRY AIR
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUICKLY
SHUNTED AWAY ON FRIDAY BY THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. WHILE THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA BOTH
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THEM ALSO
CONTINUE.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN SOMEWHAT VERSUS
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE GFS NOW A LITTLE MORE ROBUST BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE HAVING FEEDBACK ISSUES. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW POOR
CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM HAS ONLY VEERED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME
IS TO BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER BUT LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE NAM.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS COAST. PATH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE EXPECTED TO BRING IT TO THE
SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HIGHEST POPS.
UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ON ITS HEELS AND SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MID DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND TIME NEEDED TO MOISTEN THE
COLUMN UP...WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH EXPECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM...WILL ALSO REWORK POPS FOR
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTH AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE
HIGH WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND WILL TWEAK DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR
TWO.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL PICTURES...ALTHOUGH
DISCREPANCIES ABOUND IN THE FINER DETAILS. WITH THIS FORECAST...
HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT EUROPEAN. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND
THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THE EUROPEAN HAS RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...AS THE EUROPEAN HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AS OF LATE. NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 44 60 46 61 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 47 64 47 63 / 10 20 20 40
HARRISON AR 45 58 45 61 / 10 20 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 47 62 47 62 / 10 20 20 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 61 47 62 / 10 10 20 30
MONTICELLO AR 45 65 47 63 / 10 20 20 40
MOUNT IDA AR 46 61 46 62 / 10 20 20 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 44 58 45 61 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 43 60 46 61 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 46 63 47 62 / 10 20 20 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 46 60 46 61 / 10 20 20 20
SEARCY AR 43 60 47 61 / 10 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 44 62 47 62 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 192355
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVR SWRN AR WL CONT TO SLOLY ADVECT
NEWD TNGT...MAINLY IMPACTING THE WRN HALF OF THE FA. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RMN VFR CAT /4-5K FT/ INTO FRI. SOME CIGS MAY BRIEFLY
FALL TO MVFR CAT FRI MRNG OVR NRN AND WRN AR. JUST SOME SCTD LOWER
CLOUDS WL AFFECT SERN AR ON FRI. RAIN CHCS WL BE CONFINED JUST W
OF THE FA FRI...WHERE MORE SIG MOISTURE RETURN WL OCCUR. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS PESKY UPPER LOW THAT PLAGUED THE AREA
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEDGE OF DRY AIR
AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUICKLY
SHUNTED AWAY ON FRIDAY BY THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. WHILE THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA BOTH
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THEM ALSO
CONTINUE.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN SOMEWHAT VERSUS
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE GFS NOW A LITTLE MORE ROBUST BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE HAVING FEEDBACK ISSUES. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW POOR
CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE NAM HAS ONLY VEERED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME
IS TO BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER BUT LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE NAM.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS COAST. PATH OF THE SURFACE FEATURE EXPECTED TO BRING IT TO THE
SOUTH AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHICH IS WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HIGHEST POPS.
UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ON ITS HEELS AND SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY MID DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND TIME NEEDED TO MOISTEN THE
COLUMN UP...WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH EXPECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM...WILL ALSO REWORK POPS FOR
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTH AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE
HIGH WITH SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND WILL TWEAK DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR
TWO.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL PICTURES...ALTHOUGH
DISCREPANCIES ABOUND IN THE FINER DETAILS. WITH THIS FORECAST...
HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT EUROPEAN. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS
WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND
THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THE EUROPEAN HAS RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...AS THE EUROPEAN HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AS OF LATE. NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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