000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230402
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...COLD
NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 245 PM MST...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS...CHILLY NIGHTS...AND PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS TONIGHT...BUT SIGNIFICANT APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT FEEL A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN
WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO SEASONAL NORMALS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................PETERSON/KD
AVIATION...............PETERSON

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 230355
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AS ANOTHER IMPULSE CARVES THROUGH
THE BASIN NORTH OF US TONIGHT. COOLISH AIR BEHIND IT MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF COOLER MORNINGS TO START THE WEEK...THE 00Z NAM MOS CAME
IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT ANY RATE. OTHERWISE A WEAK AND DIRTY
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE AS
OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ANOTHER GORGEOUS CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UNDER ABUNDANT WARM SUNSHINE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
RUNNING ABOUT 1-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEY STILL
WERE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER THIRD OF NOVEMBER.

REALLY NO CHANGE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MINOR THICKNESS FALLS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-BUILDING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING WARMER HIGHS EACH DAY.

NEXT STRONG GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN
RIDGE OVERHEAD. SO A BIT OF COOLING ON FRIDAY WITH MORE ON SATURDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STILL BIG
QUESTION AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DAY 7 SUNDAY...WITH
RESPECTS TO THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GFS/CANADIAN
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THE EUROPEAN /ECMWF/ MODEL IS CURRENTLY THE
EXTREME OUTLIER BY DROPPING ENERGY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
MUCH MUCH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED MIDSHIFT IDEA OF A
MODEST COOL DOWN AND ALSO KEPT TOKEN 5% OR LESS POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY MORNING. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 230216
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
715 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...
YUMA AND EL CENTRO. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING BACK
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /SOUTHEAST
CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ / THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...CULMINATING IN
STRONG BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPWARD
SPIKE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CURRENT FORECASTS OF DRY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK LOOKS
OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS IN THIS FLOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST
TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN
FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THAT FORECAST
SHOWS TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ALSO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AS USUAL...THE
FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE
ABOVE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TUE.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
WINDS WILL FAVOR DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE
WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS
REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT
AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND. AS USUAL...FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS/AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 222301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
350 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...
YUMA AND EL CENTRO. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING BACK
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
WERE 1 OR 2 DEGREES LOWER IN MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR
LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS IN THIS FLOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST
TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN
FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THAT FORECAST
SHOWS TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ALSO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AS USUAL...THE
FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SOME INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE NORTH TO ABOVE 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED AT KBLH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ABOVE 6 KNOTS AT KPHX AND KIWA BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
WINDS WILL FAVOR DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE
WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS
REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT
AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND. AS USUAL...FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS/AJ

000
FXUS65 KTWC 222151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. THUS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER GORGEOUS CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA UNDER ABUNDANT WARM SUNSHINE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEY STILL WERE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER THIRD OF NOVEMBER.

REALLY NO CHANGE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MINOR THICKNESS FALLS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-BUILDING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING WARMER HIGHS EACH DAY.

NEXT STRONG GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN
RIDGE OVERHEAD. SO A BIT OF COOLING ON FRIDAY WITH MORE ON SATURDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STILL BIG
QUESTION AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DAY 7 SUNDAY...WITH
REPSECTS TO THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GFS/CANADIAN
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THE EUROPEAN /ECMWF/ MODEL IS CURRENTLY THE
EXTREME OUTLIER BY DROPPING ENERGY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
MUCH MUCH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED MIDSHIFT IDEA OF A
MODEST COOL DOWN AND ALSO KEPT TOKEN 5% OR LESS POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY MORNING. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222145
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...COLD
NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...CHILLY NIGHTS...AND PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT...BUT SIGNIFICANT APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
OUR WEATHER ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT FEEL A CONTINUED
DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO SEASONAL NORMALS IS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................KD
AVIATION...............TC

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KPSR 221720
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...
YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER LATE
THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM FROM THE NORTH AND EAST IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
AND YUMA AREAS.

FORECAST LOOKS AS IF IT IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK...NO UPDATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE
AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE DESERTS WERE LOW...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 30. FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...PROGS AGREE THAT THE STORM
TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT LINED...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT
THEY WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
THERE WILL BE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH AND A BAGGY
TROF OR POSSIBLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST GFS
IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW OVER BAJA...AND
ATTEMPTS TO WRAP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND ANY
HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT ENTERS OUR CWA WILL BE ABOVE 500MB AND ON THE
THIN SIDE. THUS SKIES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. OF COURSE...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH AND AS SUCH THE WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE MINIMAL. STILL...EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EACH DAY OVER OUR WARMER DESERTS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MED RANGE PROGS
START TO DIVERGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES...AND ACROSS ARIZONA. HOWEVER...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A DRY WLY FLOW IN PLACE BOTH
DAYS. EUROPEAN DIGS THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND BRINGS A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. HPC EXTENDED PERIOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY...AND THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE EUROPEAN OVER THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
MIGHT END UP BEING THE SUPERIOR MODEL. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND
ADDED SOME CLIMO SINGLE DIGIT POPS INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
HAVE NO APPRECIABLE EFFECT ON SURFACE WINDS. THUS LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...EVEN A BIT LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GETTING
ABOVE 10 KTS FROM THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING KBLH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MINOR AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET ASL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS...WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS
AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB
AVIATION...ELLIS/AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221635
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...
COLD NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...CHILLY NIGHTS...AND PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT...BUT SIGNIFICANT APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
OUR WEATHER ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT FEEL A CONTINUED
DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO SEASONAL NORMALS IS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SW BREEZES FOR MOST TAF SITES BTWN 18Z-00Z
TODAY AT 10-15 KNTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNTS...EXCEPT AT KPGA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................KD
AVIATION...............TC

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 221615
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. THUS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
UNDER ABUNDANT WARM SUNSHINE. MORNING SOUNDING A SMIDGE COOLER AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TODAY
BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATER THIRD OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT 24 HOURS. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 221216 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DAY TO DAY. FOR THE MOST
PART...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA DURING MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE
AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE DESERTS WERE LOW...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 30. FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...PROGS AGREE THAT THE STORM
TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT LINED...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT
THEY WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
THERE WILL BE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH AND A BAGGY
TROF OR POSSIBLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST GFS
IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW OVER BAJA...AND
ATTEMPTS TO WRAP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND ANY
HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT ENTERS OUR CWA WILL BE ABOVE 500MB AND ON THE
THIN SIDE. THUS SKIES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. OF COURSE...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH AND AS SUCH THE WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE MINIMAL. STILL...EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EACH DAY OVER OUR WARMER DESERTS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MED RANGE PROGS
START TO DIVERGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES...AND ACROSS ARIZONA. HOWEVER...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A DRY WLY FLOW IN PLACE BOTH
DAYS. EUROPEAN DIGS THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND BRINGS A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. HPC EXTENDED PERIOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY...AND THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE EUROPEAN OVER THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
MIGHT END UP BEING THE SUPERIOR MODEL. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND
ADDED SOME CLIMO SINGLE DIGIT POPS INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
HAVE NO APPRECIABLE EFFECT ON SURFACE WINDS. THUS LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...EVEN A BIT LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS GETTING
ABOVE 10 KTS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MINOR AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
DIRECTIONS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS...WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS
AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. A COOLING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221003
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
303 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...
COLD NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER...AS ANOTHER DRY TROUGH SWINGS BY
TO OUR NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BY MONDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. PERIODS OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

DRY AND MILD WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A TROUGH APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THOUGH THE USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT. WE
WILL SHOW A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IN THE FORECAST...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................JJ
AVIATION...............BOHLIN

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 220933
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
233 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS BY LATE
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF ARIZONA...MAINLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MODELS INDICATING A
WEAK LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. PLACEMENT OF THIS WEAK LOW DIFFERS
AMONG THE MODELS BUT WE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH AFFECT ANYWAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING LEVEL DURING THE TIME FRAME AND THE OCCASIONAL PATCH OF
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE PAC NW. BEYOND FRIDAY
THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING THE TROUGH MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. I TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IF EURO IS CORRECT I AM NOT NEARLY
COLD ENOUGH. PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. IN
ADDITION...I ALSO INTRODUCED SINGLE DIGIT POPS FOR SATURDAY AND THIS
MESHES WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW TO SCT CIRRUS GENERALLY ABOVE 20K FT FROM TIME TO
TIME NEXT 24 HOURS. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 220839
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
135 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DAY TO DAY. FOR THE MOST
PART...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA DURING MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE
AIRMASS WAS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE DESERTS WERE LOW...RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 30. FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...PROGS AGREE THAT THE STORM
TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...WITH A DRY NWLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEARLY FLAT LINED...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT
THEY WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BUT
THERE WILL BE A SPLIT IN THE FLOW WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH AND A BAGGY
TROF OR POSSIBLY CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST GFS
IS A BIT MORE AGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW OVER BAJA...AND
ATTEMPTS TO WRAP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND ANY
HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT ENTERS OUR CWA WILL BE ABOVE 500MB AND ON THE
THIN SIDE. THUS SKIES WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. OF COURSE...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FROM
RISING TOO MUCH AND AS SUCH THE WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE MINIMAL. STILL...EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE CLIMO AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S EACH DAY OVER OUR WARMER DESERTS.

LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MED RANGE PROGS
START TO DIVERGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
ADVERTISE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
STATES...AND ACROSS ARIZONA. HOWEVER...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A DRY WLY FLOW IN PLACE BOTH
DAYS. EUROPEAN DIGS THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND BRINGS A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. HPC EXTENDED PERIOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY...AND THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE EUROPEAN OVER THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT
MIGHT END UP BEING THE SUPERIOR MODEL. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY TO REFECT THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND
ADDED SOME CLIMO SINGLE DIGIT POPS INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE ABOVE TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER WEATHER...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND MODEST OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL
DO AFTER THANKSGIVING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT CHECK LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CHANGES.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220340
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...COLD
NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS QUICKLY THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 230 PM ...A DRY TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. ANOTHER DRY TROUGH MAY
CLIP THE 4-CORNERS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM NOW THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODIC SCT-BKN CIRRUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20
KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................DL
AVIATION...............DL

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 220337
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
837 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LATEST WV
IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
MONTANA THROUGH UTAH WITH THE TAIL END INTO ARIZONA. WITH THE BULK
OF THE ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH...WE`RE NOT SEEING MUCH THIS FAR
SOUTH EXCEPT FOR A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THESE CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CLIP THE FORECAST
AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER
ISSUES IN THE FORECAST AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. NO PLANNED UPDATES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 220257
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
800 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL
CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH HAPPENING WEATHER-WISE IN AZ FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...REPLETE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL STAY
WELL TO THE NORTH.  CURRENT DRY FORECASTS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. NO UPDATES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS A BIT OF BREEZINESS
FROM THE NORTH MAY OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA
TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST AFTER
THANKSGIVING DAY. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL GO WITH
SCENARIO OF ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BY SATURDAY.
THIS MEANS SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COMPARED WITH THANKSGIVING DAY
THEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SLIGHTLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE ABOVE TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER WEATHER...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND MODEST OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL
DO AFTER THANKSGIVING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT CHECK LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CHANGES.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS

000
FXUS65 KPSR 212244
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL
CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
WIND WAS GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY...AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS A BIT OF BREEZINESS
FROM THE NORTH MAY OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA
TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST AFTER
THANKSGIVING DAY. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL GO WITH
SCENARIO OF ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BY SATURDAY.
THIS MEANS SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COMPARED WITH THANKSGIVING DAY
THEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SLIGHTLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

SOME WIND FROM THE NORTH AT KBLH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER
0100 GMT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
USUAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT KPHX AND KIWA. SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET ASL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY BEFORE 0200 GMT
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BETWEEN 1200 AND 2000 GMT SUNDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER WEATHER...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND MODEST OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL
DO AFTER THANKSGIVING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT CHECK LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CHANGES.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212216
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
316 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...COLD NIGHTS...AND
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. ANOTHER DRY TROUGH MAY CLIP THE
4-CORNERS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. AS SUCH...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM NOW THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................KD
AVIATION...............TC

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 212001
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
115 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH ENERGY
AND MOISTURE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. MODEST GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT...PROBABLY WON`T SEE MUCH DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO NORMAL
DIURNAL TRENDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH LITTLE INFLECTION SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER IMPULSE RIDES THROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIRTY RIDGE FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT ACTUAL HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS GAINS WILL NOT BE THAT UNSEASONABLE. JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO. DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TODAY AND
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211735
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND
EL CENTRO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA AND YUMA...1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER IN THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
DESERT AREAS AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK
LATE THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WIND WAS
GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH IN THE
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESERT AREAS...AND NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO SHOW SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA...AND IT LOOKS AS IF ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THE REST OF THE DAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT
THIS WEEKEND...CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS
ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...PROGS START TO DIVERGE A BIT...AS THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE EAST THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS
TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND TOWARDS ARIZONA. TEND TO
FAVOR ECMWF A BIT DUE TO ITS TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS IN PAST
MONTHS...BUT ATTM EVEN ITS SOLUTION STILL APPEARS DRY WITH ANY QPF
MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF ARIZONA FRIDAY. MEX MOS NUMBERS REMAIN
SINGLE DIGITS AT DAY 7. THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVER
THE METRO PHOENIX AREA...AFTER THE MORNING DRAINAGE WINDS
DIMINISH...AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OCCASIONALLY
WEST. NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS...DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS. FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN FOR A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211625
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MILD DAYS...AND
COLD NIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /245 AM MST/...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NO HOPE FOR RAIN AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY DRY. MOST HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER...THOUGH NORTHEAST AZ VALLEYS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER AS
PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE MIXED OUT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE 4-CORNERS LATE SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THANKSGIVING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH EASTERLY WINDS MUCH OF THE WEEK. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM 18Z TO 00Z TODAY EXPECT BREEZY SW WINDS AT TAF
SITES EXCEPT KPGA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................KD
AVIATION...............TC

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 211613
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH ENERGY
AND MOISTURE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. MODEST GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT...PROBABLY WON`T SEE MUCH DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO NORMAL
DIURNAL TRENDS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH LITTLE INFLECTION SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER IMPULSE RIDES THROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
DIRTY RIDGE FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT ACTUAL HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS GAINS WILL NOT BE THAT UNSEASONABLE. JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS NEXT 24 HOURS OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
CLEAR. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
ALTHOUGH SOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UNDER WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211311 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
610 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PAC NW WILL BE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. LATEST 00Z 500MB
PLOT DATA SHOWED SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...130-170M...OCCURRING
OVER NRN NEVADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...BUT ONLY 10M FALLS
WERE SEEN AT FLG. OUR AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ATTM...WITH PWAT VALUES
BELOW 0.10 INCH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LOW...AT 2 AM THEY WERE
RUNNING IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. SO...AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY ALL IT WILL BRING IS A BIT OF COOLING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND POSSIBLY SOME BREEZES. IR IMAGERY AT 2M SHOWED
THE HIGH CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF THE TROF/FRONT MOVING INTO SRN CA AND
WESTERN AZ. THICKNESS FALLS OVER OUR CWA TODAY WILL BE
MEAGER...AROUND 30M...AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PHOENIX
NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IS 73...AND THE FORECAST HIGH IS 76 DEGREES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE ON TAP EACH DAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...KEEPING RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH A SPLIT IN THE FLOW AND A WEAK BAGGY
TROF WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WARMER DESERTS
REACHING TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMEST DESERTS BY THURSDAY...UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW SHOULD NOT PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...PROGS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT...AS THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EAST THRU THE NRN TIER OF
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND TOWARDS ARIZONA. TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF A BIT DUE TO
ITS TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS IN PAST MONTHS...BUT ATTM EVEN ITS
SOLUTION STILL APPEARS DRY WITH ANY QPF MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. MEX MOS NUMBERS REMAIN SINGLE DIGITS AT DAY 7.
THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVER
THE METRO PHOENIX AREA...AFTER THE MORNING DRAINAGE WINDS
DIMINISH...AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OCCASIONALLY
WEST. NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS...DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS. FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN FOR A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210945
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MILD DAYS...AND
COLD NIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NO
HOPE FOR RAIN AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY. MOST HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...THOUGH NORTHEAST
AZ VALLEYS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER AS PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS ARE MIXED OUT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL CLIP THE 4-CORNERS
LATE SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THANKSGIVING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH EASTERLY WINDS MUCH OF THE WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN
INCREASE IN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................JJ
AVIATION...............BOHLIN

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210944
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MILD DAYS...AND
COLD NIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NO
HOPE FOR RAIN AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY. MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...THOUGH NORTHEAST
AZ VALLEYS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER AS PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS ARE MIXED OUT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL CLIP THE 4-CORNERS
LATE SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THANKSGIVING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH EASTERLY WINDS MUCH OF THE WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN
INCREASE IN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................JJ
AVIATION...............BOHLIN

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KPSR 210927
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PROGESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PAC NW WILL BE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. LATEST 00Z 500MB
PLOT DATA SHOWED SIGNFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...130-170M...OCCURING OVER
NRN NEVADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...BUT ONLY 10M FALLS WERE
SEEN AT FLG. OUR AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ATTM...WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW
0.10 INCH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LOW...AT 2 AM THEY WERE
RUNNING IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. SO...AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY ALL IT WILL BRING IS A BIT OF COOLING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND POSSIBLY SOME BREEZES. IR IMAGERY AT 2M SHOWED
THE HIGH CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF THE TROF/FRONT MOVING INTO SRN CA AND
WESTERN AZ. THICKNESS FALLS OVER OUR CWA TODAY WILL BE
MEAGER...AROUND 30M...AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PHOENIX
NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IS 73...AND THE FORECAST HIGH IS 76 DEGREES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE ON TAP EACH DAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...KEEPING RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH A SPLIT IN THE FLOW AND A WEAK BAGGY
TROF WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WARMER DESERTS
REACHING TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMEST DESERTS BY THURSDAY...UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW SHOULD NOT PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...PROGS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT...AS THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EAST THRU THE NRN TIER OF
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND TOWARDS ARIZONA. TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF A BIT DUE TO
ITS TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS IN PAST MONTHS...BUT ATTM EVEN ITS
SOLUTION STILL APPEARS DRY WITH ANY QPF MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. MEX MOS NUMBERS REMAIN SINGLE DIGITS AT DAY 7.
THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z
SUN.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GUSTY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS

000
FXUS65 KTWC 210902
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
202 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS AND
INTO UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THEN NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE U. S. SUNDAY...AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION ON MONDAY. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS NEXT 24 HOURS OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
CLEAR. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
ALTHOUGH SOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.CLIMATE...COUNTING YESTERDAY`S HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURE DATA...THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR NOVEMBER AT THE TUCSON AIRPORT IS 66.8 DEGREES. THIS
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH WARMEST TO DATE...WELL BEHIND THE RECORD
OF 69.6 DEGREES FROM 1999.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON