[top]
000
FXUS66 KHNX 212304
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
304 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LOW CLOUDS DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS OVER THE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF KERN COUNTY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO PAC NW TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE NO
IMPACT ON THE AREAS WEATHER. CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED BANKED ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS ALL DAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS CLEARED OUT QUITE NICELY.
MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME THE FOG PRONE AREAS
ALONG THE 198 CORRIDOR...THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS.
ZONAL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
CLEARS SKIES EXPECTED. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO
MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE SJV.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO MAKE AN IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT
IN THE FRESNO COUNTY PORTION AND FURTHER NORTH FOR THE SIERRA BUT
HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE TULARE COUNTY PORTION. FURTHER SOUTH THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECREASING. WE RECEIVED A REPORT
OF A MOTORIST IN SEQUOIA NAT PARK WHO EXPERIENCED NEAR ZERO VSBY IN
FOG AT ABOUT 3KFT. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY NOT ERODE MUCH
OVERNIGHT IN THE KERN MOUNTAINS WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. HAVE BROUGHT
LIFR CONDITIONS TO KVIS AND IFR CONDS FOR VSBY TO OTHER TERMINAL
SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS THERE AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
[top]
000
FXUS65 KREV 212259
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN TONIGHT IS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH CLOUD
SHIELD ONTO NW CA. SYSTEM IS POTENT AND SMALL...BUT WILL DEAL JUST
A GLANCING BLOW TO THE AREA AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR/WA.
DECENT AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH AFTER
06Z SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50/60 PCT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND PCPN ALMOST ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. PROG SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW NEAR
ISOTHERMAL TEMP PROFILE THROUGH 15Z. COLD FRONT WITH SYSTEM JUST
GLANCES THE AREA SUN MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS FOR
ANOTHER 6 HRS THRU MID-MORNING. BY THEN...MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH SYSTEM WILL HAVE RACED EWD.
700 MB WINDS ALSO INCREASE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER TO NEAR 60 KTS
BY 12Z. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
MIXING THESE TO SFC OR FOR MTN WAVES. AS PROFILE IMPROVES BY
18Z...WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR 35-40 KTS ACROSS MANY AREAS NORTH OF
HWY 50. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY TOMORROW MOST AREAS WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 35-40 MPH...BUT NOTHING LIKE FRIDAY. HOISTED LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR TAHOE/PYRAMID WHICH SHOULD BE A BIT CHOPPY WITH THE
WINDS AND WAVES AS HIGH AS 3 FEET.
BEHIND SYSTEM...RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MON/TUE. RIDGE IS FAIRLY FLAT
SO IT WILL BE DIRTY WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN VALLEYS
WITH GOOD MIXING TOMORRW BECOMING POOR BY MON WITH LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. MTNS WILL SEE BETTER MIXING AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WALLMANN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGE INTACT FOR MIDWEEK IN QUITE AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST.
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER. THE LATEST EC BRINGS A
STRONGER AND COLDER SHORTWAVE TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A SHALLOWER SHORTWAVE. THE EC WOULD POINT TO SHOWERS
FROM TAHOE AND I-80 NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
INSIDE SLIDER TYPE IMPULSE REINFORCING THE COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLES JUST GENERATE A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS RUN ALSO INDICATED AN
INSIDE SLIDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MUCH LIKE THE LATEST EC...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS RUNS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FOR
THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER THANKSGIVING IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN
AS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT WILL LEAVE THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS...WHILE RIDGES WILL WARM MORE UNDER RIDGE. ALSO
ANTICIPATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. JAH
&&
.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCUREMENT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-60KTS FROM
TAHOE NORTH. VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM RENO NORTH WILL SEE GUSTS TO
30KTS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. JAH
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
[top]
000
FXUS65 KPSR 212244
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL
CENTRO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
WIND WAS GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY...AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS
AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS A BIT OF BREEZINESS
FROM THE NORTH MAY OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA
TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST AFTER
THANKSGIVING DAY. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL GO WITH
SCENARIO OF ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BY SATURDAY.
THIS MEANS SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COMPARED WITH THANKSGIVING DAY
THEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SLIGHTLY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
SOME WIND FROM THE NORTH AT KBLH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER
0100 GMT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE
USUAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT KPHX AND KIWA. SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET ASL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY BEFORE 0200 GMT
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BETWEEN 1200 AND 2000 GMT SUNDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER WEATHER...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY AND MODEST OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE WEATHER WILL
DO AFTER THANKSGIVING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT CHECK LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY POSSIBLE
CHANGES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
[top]
000
FXUS66 KMTR 212224
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
224 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:24 PM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE IT INTO THE MID TO LOWER 50S WHICH IS WITHIN
2 TO 3 DEGREES OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DOES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
CWA. HOWEVER...IT ALSO IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING
TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. A COLD FRONT RESULTING FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHBAY LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL BRING WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SOME ADDED CLOUD
COVER. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A BIT THIS WEEK WITH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO 578 DM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MID 60S
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY WITH KING CITY
REACHING 72 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT. HOWEVER...THE
1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON DROPPING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND APPEARS TO LIFT THE TROUGH
NORTHWARD INTO BC SPARING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THANKSGIVING
DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 AM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. WEST WINDS AOB 10
KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO 10 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10 TO 60 NM
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
[top]
000
FXUS66 KEKA 212203
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
203 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WARMER AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY EARLY TODAY ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...AS A STABLE AIR MASS MOVED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. VISIBLE SAT IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD SHIELD MOVING TOWARD THE
COAST...CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER THE REDWOOD COAST. THIS
WILL BRING ADDITION RAIN TO MOST OF THE CWA...WITH SNOW AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY EXPECT SNOW LEVEL TO BE NEAR 5000
FT...ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR POCKETS IN THE TRINITY VALLEYS MAY ALLOW
A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX DOWN IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS. THE LIKELY SPOTS ARE
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN EASTERN HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES.
RAIN WILL BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
AROUND 00Z...ACCOMPANIED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL. THE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING SUNDAY. THINGS WILL TAPER OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT PER GFS
FORECAST. THE FIVE WAVE PATTERN SHOWS A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. UNDER
THIS SCENARIO THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME INCREASED
CLOUDINESS TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A COUPLE DAYS OF WARMER AND DRYER WEATHER WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 580. ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BAND WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST EARLY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS AND CANADIAN...AND DEVELOPS A DEEPER TROUGH
AS IT MAKES LANDFALL EARLY FRIDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD IS WHEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT. FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND INDICATED AN IMPROVING TREND FOR SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
APPEARS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR 7000 FT...SO THAT
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL. CMC
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
NORTHWESTERLY. ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT WESTERLY SWELL...HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. A
LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BY MID
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT NEXT WEEK.
HENRY
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NORTH COAST
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE NOT QUITE AS WET AS
THE LAST SYSTEM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY STARTING BTW 03 AND 06Z ALONG
THE COAST...AND 05 AND 08Z INLAND TOWARD KUKI. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
HENRY
&&
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
[top]
000
FXUS66 KLOX 212151
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
UPSLOPE MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND A FEW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED OVER THE LA BASIN TODAY. WINDS HAVE
SLOWLY DECREASED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL
REPORTING GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES. AS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY`S HIGHS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL REISSUE WIND ADVISORIES
FOR A SUNDOWNER IN THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND A
RESURGENCE OF NORTH WINDS OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO AS WATER IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING THE
AREA AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN STRONGLY OFFSHORE. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACNW WILL BRING A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER SUNDAY MORNING...THUS THE REASONING TO
CONTINUE AN ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
THIS AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AS WINDS
THERE COULD ALSO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY DUE TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. READINGS WILL BE WARMER IN ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK SANTA ANA DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. OFFSHORE WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
MORE PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ON
EITHER MODEL. A STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF RUN HANDLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CORRECTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...21/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MODERATE MID
LEVEL NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE AFTER 22/03Z OVER AREA. A
MODERATE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG
AFTER 22/06Z.
KLAX...VERY LIKELY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY. THERE IS A
CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. IT IS LIKELY LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 22/15Z AND PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.
KBUR...VERY LIKELY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY. THERE IS A
CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BOLDT
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...MEIER
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
000
FXUS66 KSGX 212122
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PATCHY COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. COOLER
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
CONTINUE ONSHORE BUT ARE TRENDING WEAKER TO THE NORTH...WITH ABOUT 4
MB SAN-IPL AND 5 MB SAN-LAS.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LEAVE BEHIND A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS W OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY NW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
PASS TO THE NORTH. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BECOME WEAKLY
OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT REMAIN ONSHORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT TO LOWER HUMIDITIES A LITTLE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS.
CLEAR AND A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY...THEN EVEN WARMER MONDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
IN MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES
BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH MOST
GUSTS LESS THAN 35 MPH. COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE N AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...
212000Z...MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO DROP TONIGHT TO ABOUT 1500 TO
2000 FT. FLOW GOING OFFSHORE AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL GO FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE VSBY 3-5SM AND ISOLATED LOWER TONIGHT.
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL IN THE NEAR COAST AREAS WITH
ISOLATED BRIEF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SHORT TERM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NEXT CONCERN IS STILL THE
PROLONGED OFFSHORE WIND PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE
A WEAK TO BRIEFLY MODERATE EVENT. ADDING FORECAST WIND GUSTS AND RH
VALUES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF EACH FIRE WEATHER ZONE FORECAST IN
THIS AFTERNOONS. NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN THE 900
AM ARE FORECAST DISCUSSION. LOOKING FURTHER OUT...ASSUMING THE
MODELS ARE DEAD ON ACCURATE WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
RIDGE...A MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS ADVERTISED TO FINISH
OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...WHITLOW
FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
000
FXUS66 KLOX 211831
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...WILL MAKE A FEW UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE
MAINLY FOR CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE ALSO
A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THAN CURRENT FORECASTS.
A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH TOTALS MAINLY UNDER
0.10 INCH...BUT A COUPLE OF REPORTS OVER 0.20 INCH ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO STRONG...BUT
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SQUEAK INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL THIS MORNING. WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 11AM.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN 24-HOURS AGO
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACNW TODAY BUT IT WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY. MODEL DATA
SHOWS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTIES...CONTINUED DRY BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...COULD BE ADVISORY LEVEL AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO REBOUND TOMORROW AND THEN STRONGER WARMING BEGINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY TAKING HOLD OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FOR MIDWEEK. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE FLOW PATTERN GAINING STRENGTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. THERE IS CHANCE THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH
THE PATTERN...AND POSSIBLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MIDWEEK. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED FOR THE PERIOD
AS NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED UP ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST ON TUESDAY...AND KEPT WARM FOR THE VALLEY AREA AND COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON THE DEVELOPING THE STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN LESS AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH
A TROUGH SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
EXISTS BETWEEN ALL THE SOLUTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS DAMPENS
THE WAVE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY VERSUS THE ECMWF AND GEM. WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST WAS HEDGED TOWARDS A COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...21/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE MODERATE MID
LEVEL NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE AFTER 22/03Z OVER AREA. A
MODERATE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG
AFTER 22/06Z.
KLAX...VERY LIKELY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY. THERE IS A
CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. IT IS LIKELY LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 22/15Z AND PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.
KBUR...VERY LIKELY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR EARLY. THERE IS A
CHANCE VSBY WILL BECOME 5SM HZ AFTER 22/11Z AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...MEIER
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 211735
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND
EL CENTRO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA AND YUMA...1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER IN THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
DESERT AREAS AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK
LATE THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WIND WAS
GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH IN THE
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESERT AREAS...AND NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH IN
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO SHOW SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA...AND IT LOOKS AS IF ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THE REST OF THE DAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT
THIS WEEKEND...CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS
ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...PROGS START TO DIVERGE A BIT...AS THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE EAST THRU THE NRN TIER OF STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS
TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND TOWARDS ARIZONA. TEND TO
FAVOR ECMWF A BIT DUE TO ITS TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS IN PAST
MONTHS...BUT ATTM EVEN ITS SOLUTION STILL APPEARS DRY WITH ANY QPF
MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF ARIZONA FRIDAY. MEX MOS NUMBERS REMAIN
SINGLE DIGITS AT DAY 7. THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVER
THE METRO PHOENIX AREA...AFTER THE MORNING DRAINAGE WINDS
DIMINISH...AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OCCASIONALLY
WEST. NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS...DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS. FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN FOR A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
000
FXUS66 KMTR 211730
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
930 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST SATURDAY...THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DAY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. OVER NIGHT LOWS WERE PRETTY CHILLY LAST NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE CHILLIEST AREA WAS OF COURSE
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SONOMA
COUNTY AIRPORT MADE IT TO 32 DEGREES AND WAS REPORTING FREEZING FOG
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE NAPA AIRPORT MADE IT DOWN TO 36 DEGREES
AND ALSO REPORTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT BRUSHING BY THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO DRY OUT TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A BIT THIS WEEK WITH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO 578 DM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MID 60S
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY WITH KING CITY
REACHING 72 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT. HOWEVER...THE
0000 UTC ECMWF AND 1200 UTC GFS MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON DROOPING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND APPEARS TO LIFT THE TROUGH
NORTHWARD INTO BC SPARING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THANKSGIVING
DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 AM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LATER TODAY. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH BAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. WEST WINDS AOB 10
KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
...SCA PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
...SCA STARTING 1 PM PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS UNTIL 2 PM
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 211728
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
928 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TYPICAL UPSLOPE CLOUDS BANKED ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AS SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SIERRA CREST TODAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL INTO KERN
COUNTY AND A EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WAS RATHER LIGHT. RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME NORTHWARD BOUND ECHOES FROM FRESNO
NORTH INTO YOSEMITE AND THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY CAUSED BY A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PUSHING RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. IN THE VERY FAST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
FORECAST MODELS RACE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTH STATE
TONIGHT HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
HANFORD FORECAST AREA. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
SIERRA WILL CONTINUE AND THEN DECLINE BY SUNRISE. MEANWHILE, OVER
KERN COUNTY THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE TEHACHAPI AND GRAPEVINE AREA MOUNTAINS. BEGINNING LATER
SUNDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED BY ALL MODELS TO
BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL QUITE EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE
STORM TRACK WELL NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE HOWEVER ON THANKSGIVING, THE ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND DRIVES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE. FOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IT WILL BE DRY EITHER WAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT I DON`T SEE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THE BIG
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. WILL NEED TO WATCH JUST IF AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FOG MIGHT GET UNDER A RIDGE IN LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE VERY SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS EVIDENT ON VISB SAT
THIS MORNING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TEHACHAPIS. LOW CLOUDS
ALSO SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SIERRA. SOME
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPIS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE SLOWEST IN THE
TEHACHAPIS. GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH
G20KTS OR SO LIKELY. VALLEY FOG LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH
LIFR PREDICTED AT ONLY KVIS FOR NOW AND IFR TO MVFR AT THE OTHER
SITES.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KLOX 211725
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
UPDATED
.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...WILL MAKE A FEW UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE
MAINLY FOR CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE ALSO
A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THAN CURRENT FORECASTS.
A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH TOTALS MAINLY UNDER
0.10 INCH...BUT A COUPLE OF REPORTS OVER 0.20 INCH ACROSS THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO STRONG...BUT
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SQUEAK INTO ADVISORY
LEVEL THIS MORNING. WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 11AM.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN 24-HOURS AGO
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACNW TODAY BUT IT WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY. MODEL DATA
SHOWS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTIES...CONTINUED DRY BUT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...COULD BE ADVISORY LEVEL AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO REBOUND TOMORROW AND THEN STRONGER WARMING BEGINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY TAKING HOLD OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...A WARMING TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FOR MIDWEEK. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE FLOW PATTERN GAINING STRENGTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. THERE IS CHANCE THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH
THE PATTERN...AND POSSIBLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MIDWEEK. THE PACKAGE WAS WARMED FOR THE PERIOD
AS NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMED UP ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL
COAST ON TUESDAY...AND KEPT WARM FOR THE VALLEY AREA AND COASTAL
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON THE DEVELOPING THE STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN LESS AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH
A TROUGH SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
EXISTS BETWEEN ALL THE SOLUTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS DAMPENS
THE WAVE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY VERSUS THE ECMWF AND GEM. WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST WAS HEDGED TOWARDS A COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...21/1215Z.
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS BOUNCING ABOUT
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. MANY TAF SITES WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SCT V BKN CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE RHYME OR REASON. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS...ASIDE FROM KPRB
WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME IFR CEILINGS.
KLAX AND KBUR...SCT V BKN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BOLDT/HALL
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...MEIER
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 211702
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN PATCHY
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. COOL TODAY
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WARMER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER W OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE MORNING
NKX SOUNDING INDICATED AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 2500 FT WITH WESTERLY
WINDS ABOVE. PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE ONSHORE WITH ABOUT 4 MB
SAN-IPL AND 7 MB SAN-LAS.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL LEAVE BEHIND A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG W OF THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY WINDY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. DRY NW FLOW WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. COOL TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN MOST AREAS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BECOME
WEAKLY OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT REMAIN ONSHORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT TO LOWER HUMIDITIES A LITTLE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS.
CLEAR AND WARMER MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
IN MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE WILL BE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES
BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH MOST
GUSTS LESS THAN 35 MPH. COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE N AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...
211600Z...MARINE LAYER ABOUT 3K TO 3.5K FT. AREAS OF BROKEN BASES
AROUND 2.5K TO 3K FT MSL. EXPECT STRATUS TO CLEAR BY 18-20Z WITH A
FEW STRATOCU POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBY QUITE VARIABLE WITH
AREAS 3-5SM...LOCALLY 1-2SM AND ISOLATED BELOW 1SM. VSBY WILL
IMPROVE BY 16-17Z. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOCAL VSBY 3-5SM AND
ISOLATED BELOW 3SM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 1630Z SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SHORT TERM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NOW THAT MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED AND SPILLED INTO DESERTS ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE DRY ABOVE
7000 FEET. NEXT CONCERN IS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR RETURN OF OFFSHORE FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NE NEVADA AND SW CALIFORNIA COAST ARE
SIGNIFICANT...14-18 MB...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS QUITE
BROAD WITH AN AXIS TOO FAR INLAND TO INDICATE MORE THAN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. SO FEEL THAT THE LOCAL WIND PROGRAM OUTPUT FROM THE
21/00Z GFS MODEL IS OVERDONE AND ECMWF MAY ALSO BE...SHOWING MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WIND PRONE AREAS. AT
THIS TIME LEANING MORE TOWARDS SUSTAINED NE-E 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. MONDAY WILL LIKELY STILL BE COOL AND MOIST
ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITY AT MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 15 PERCENT. CURRENT
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY HAS 6 TO 8 HOURS OF HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR INLAND VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS/MID SLOPES WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
TUESDAY NIGHT ABOVE 1500 FT ELEVATION. ON WEDNESDAY LONGER
DURATIONS...8 TO 12 HOURS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AGAIN.
THURSDAY DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. FRIDAY THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN YIELDING COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND AS ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...WHITLOW
FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
[top]
000
FXUS66 KSTO 211659
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAYS SYSTEM. SNOW REPORTS FROM
YESTERDAY ARE STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM YESTERDAY...OVER A FOOT OF
SNOW FELL NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WITH WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW MANAGED TO ACCUMULATE TO AROUND HALF AN INCH AS
LOW AS NEARLY 3000 FT ELEVATION.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS WIDESPREAD FOG. TWO
SWATHS OF FOG ARE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...ONE NARROW AREA
ALONG I-5 FROM REDDING TO AROUND CORNING. THE OTHER IS A BIT MORE
EXTENSIVE RUNNING FROM WILLOWS THROUGH THE SACRAMENTO METRO AREA TO
JUST NORTH OF STOCKTON. THE FOG SHOULD DISPERSE IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS AS WE START TO SEE SOME MORE MIXING.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS NEXT WAVE IS A FAIR BIT QUICKER
THAN THE LAST AND MOST OF ITS ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH TOWARDS
OREGON. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
I-80 LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. NOT A WHOLE LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH...SO ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. DANG
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WHILE MILDER VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GETS DURING THE WEEK AND WHETHER
IT PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE SOME OF THIS WARMING AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE LATER THANKSGIVING OR FRIDAY
WITH THE ECMWF FASTER ON THE TIMING OF EITHER THE GFS OR GEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG/ST TIL ARND 18Z IN SAC VALLEY AND EXTREME NRN
SJ VALLEY OTRW VFR CONDS THRU 06Z SUN. WARM FRONT AND ASSOCD UPPER
TROUGH MOV INTO NORCAL TONIGHT INTO SUN. FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AFT 06Z
SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS MAINLY N OF I-80 IN -RA/BR. FOR
FTHLS/MTNS AFT 06Z SUN...WDSPRD IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDS OBSCRG TRRN
DVLPG FM N-S OVNGT SAT INTO SUN MORN. SN LVLS GENLY 045-055 MSL.
AREAS WLY SFC WND GSTS TO 30 KTS OR GTR OVR HYR MTN TRRN AFT 06Z SUN.
TAF SITES: KSMF AND KSAC ARE BOTH IN CENTER OF SRN SAC VALLEY FOG
AREA. FOG HAS NOW ADVECTED SE OVER KMHR...KEEPING KSMF...KSAC AND
KMHR IN SIMILAR CONDS. KRDD AND KRBL ARE WITHIN NARROWER BAND OF
FOG...SO IT MAY THIN OUT A BIT SOONER. JMC
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 211645
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
845 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST SATURDAY...THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE DAY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. OVER NIGHT LOWS WERE PRETTY CHILLY LAST NIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE CHILLIEST AREA WAS OF COURSE
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SONOMA
COUNTY AIRPORT MADE IT TO 32 DEGREES AND WAS REPORTING FREEZING FOG
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE NAPA AIRPORT MADE IT DOWN TO 36 DEGREES
AND ALSO REPORTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING.
THESE CLOUDS WILL FORM IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT BRUSHING BY THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO DRY OUT TOMORROW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A BIT THIS WEEK WITH THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING 500 MB HEIGHTS TO 578 DM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO MID 60S
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY WITH KING CITY
REACHING 72 DEGREES BY MID WEEK.
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT. HOWEVER...THE
0000 UTC ECMWF AND 1200 UTC GFS MODELS DO BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INSISTS ON DROOPING A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH BAY AREA. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND APPEARS TO LIFT THE TROUGH
NORTHWARD INTO BC SPARING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THANKSGIVING
DAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSED YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TRANSIENT HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...PATCHY GROUND FOG VCNTY KSNS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
...SCA PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
...SCA STARTING 1 PM PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS UNTIL 2 PM
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 211311 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
610 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PAC NW WILL BE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. LATEST 00Z 500MB
PLOT DATA SHOWED SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...130-170M...OCCURRING
OVER NRN NEVADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...BUT ONLY 10M FALLS
WERE SEEN AT FLG. OUR AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ATTM...WITH PWAT VALUES
BELOW 0.10 INCH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LOW...AT 2 AM THEY WERE
RUNNING IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. SO...AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY ALL IT WILL BRING IS A BIT OF COOLING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND POSSIBLY SOME BREEZES. IR IMAGERY AT 2M SHOWED
THE HIGH CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF THE TROF/FRONT MOVING INTO SRN CA AND
WESTERN AZ. THICKNESS FALLS OVER OUR CWA TODAY WILL BE
MEAGER...AROUND 30M...AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PHOENIX
NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IS 73...AND THE FORECAST HIGH IS 76 DEGREES.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE ON TAP EACH DAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...KEEPING RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH A SPLIT IN THE FLOW AND A WEAK BAGGY
TROF WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WARMER DESERTS
REACHING TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMEST DESERTS BY THURSDAY...UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW SHOULD NOT PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...PROGS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT...AS THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EAST THRU THE NRN TIER OF
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND TOWARDS ARIZONA. TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF A BIT DUE TO
ITS TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS IN PAST MONTHS...BUT ATTM EVEN ITS
SOLUTION STILL APPEARS DRY WITH ANY QPF MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. MEX MOS NUMBERS REMAIN SINGLE DIGITS AT DAY 7.
THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OVER
THE METRO PHOENIX AREA...AFTER THE MORNING DRAINAGE WINDS
DIMINISH...AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OCCASIONALLY
WEST. NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR CIRRUS...DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS. FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN FOR A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
000
FXUS66 KMTR 211301
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
500 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS THE DISTRICT YESTERDAY
AND LAST NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A MOIST
GROUND...FOG HAS FORMED IN MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE
DISTRICT. FOG IS BEING REPORTED FROM THE NORTH BAY SOUTH THROUGH THE
EAST BAY...SANTA CLARA VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. AT TIMES VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER
MILE AT SPOTS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE DISTRICT TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE NEAR 47/147
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY...BUOYED BY A 135 KT JET PER GOES HIGH DENSITY
WINDS...TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
DISTRICT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MENTIONED A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
BAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE PACIFIC NW. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN AFFECT ON THE DISTRICTS WEATHER WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPS. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PST SATURDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THAT PASSED YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TRANSIENT HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...PATCHY GROUND FOG VCNTY KSNS OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
...SCA PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
...SCA STARTING 1 PM PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS UNTIL 2 PM
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 211219
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
419 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST SATURDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS THE DISTRICT YESTERDAY
AND LAST NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A MOIST
GROUND...FOG HAS FORMED IN MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE
DISTRICT. FOG IS BEING REPORTED FROM THE NORTH BAY SOUTH THROUGH THE
EAST BAY...SANTA CLARA VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. AT TIMES VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER
MILE AT SPOTS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE DISTRICT TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE NEAR 47/147
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY...BUOYED BY A 135 KT JET PER GOES HIGH DENSITY
WINDS...TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
DISTRICT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE MENTIONED A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH
BAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN ON THANKSGIVING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE PACIFIC NW. AS OF
NOW...THE MAIN AFFECT ON THE DISTRICTS WEATHER WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPS. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST FRIDAY...COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. NO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR MRY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND AREAS OF GROUND FOG
AROUND STS THROUGH 18Z.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. CEILINGS NOT
EXPECTED.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND MRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE SCT
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...SCA FOR HAZ SEAS PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM UNTIL 2 PM
...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
...SCA PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
...SCA STARTING 1 PM PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS UNTIL 2 PM
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI/CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 211217
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
417 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
EXITS THE REGION. AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR NEXT
WEEK...CREATING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF CANYONS AND PASSES FOR MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROUGH AXIS
RESIDING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXITING LOS ANGELES COUNTY. MAIN
RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
AND THE CARRIZO PLAIN THIS MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES...POSSIBLY
LINGERING A BIT MORE ON THE PEAKS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
LOCALIZED CANYONS WINDS ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND OVER THE SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. GRADIENTS
REMAIN MODERATELY OUT THE NORTH...BUT ARE APPROACHING NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. THESE WINDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS THE LATEST NAM-WRF AND LOCAL
16-KM WRF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEFED UP THE 850 MB WINDS AND THERMAL
SUPPORT THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
PUSH A WEAKER BOUNDARY SOUTH SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES. POPS WERE BUMPED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT WITH FRONT WEAKENING AT IT CROSSES OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA...BEST ESTIMATE IS NOT TO ADD MENTIONABLE POPS
AND WEATHER JUST YET. THIS FRONT WILL HOWEVER INCREASE THE WINDS
THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND OVER SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA
COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY OCCUR.
KSBA-KBFL AND KLAX-KBFL SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE TO AROUND 6 MB
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH RESPECTIVELY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
KICK AROUND THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...PRECLUDING A DEVELOPING SANTA ANA FLOW PATTERN.
.LONG TERM...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FIRMLY TAKING HOLD OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...A WARMING TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FOR
MIDWEEK. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE FLOW PATTERN
GAINING STRENGTH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND
CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS CHANCE THAT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE PATTERN...AND POSSIBLY FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MIDWEEK. THE
PACKAGE WAS WARMED FOR THE PERIOD AS NAM-WRF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMED UP ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL COAST ON TUESDAY...AND
KEPT WARM FOR THE VALLEY AREA AND COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON THE DEVELOPING THE STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN LESS AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM PUSH
A TROUGH SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
EXISTS BETWEEN ALL THE SOLUTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS DAMPENS
THE WAVE A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY VERSUS THE ECMWF AND GEM. WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
FORECAST WAS HEDGED TOWARDS A COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...21/1215Z.
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS BOUNCING ABOUT
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. MANY TAF SITES WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH SCT V BKN CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE RHYME OR REASON. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS...ASIDE FROM KPRB
WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME IFR CEILINGS.
KLAX AND KBUR...SCT V BKN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC/SYNOPSIS...HALL
AVIATION...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KEKA 211203
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
403 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WARMER
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
MORNING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE LULL IN
PRECIP WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE PAC NW LATE
TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN BULK OF ENERGY REMAINING WELL
N OF CWA...BUT PRECIP MAY BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT AS A JET MAX TRACKS
OVER THE ORCA BORDER. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF TOTALS OF
0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IN MENDOCINO COUNTY WITH TOTALS AROUND 1 TO 1.5
INCHES IN DEL NORTE COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FT THIS
MORNING WILL RISE TODAY AS WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
SNOW LEVELS TO INCREASE TO 5500 TO 6000 FT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
PRECIP BEGINS TONIGHT. LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3000
FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN E HUMBOLDT AND W
TRINITY COUNTIES WHERE IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO MIX IN WARM AIR.
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST SHOWS THE SUNDAY STORM MOVING INLAND FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE E PAC
BY MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE BUT THE EFFECT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA
REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE MODELS WORK ON BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG LOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS MAY BE SLOWING
DOWN THE TIMING WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON MODEL TIMING AND CONSISTENCY FOR THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD. CMC/BC
&&
.MARINE...WINDS HAVE EASED THIS MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE NRN
PORTIONS. THIS IS A RESULT OF A POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA...BUT
WILL BE HIGH SCA. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY IN SCA LEVEL AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE. HOWEVER THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME LARGER SWELL MAKING IT
INTO THE FAR NRN WATERS. THIS COMBINE WITH THE INCREASED WIND WAVES
COULD GENERATE A HAZ SEA CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS
WILL TAPER QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. SEAS WILL TAPER INTO SUN NGT. ALL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE
DONE BY SUN NGT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW SCA WINDS AND
BORDERLINE SCA FOR SEAS. THE NEXT SIG FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
THANKSGIVING NIGHT OR INTO FRI. BFG
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL REGIONS
YIELDING IFR THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE DAY.
THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS. IFR WILL
GENERALLY RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A FEW HRS DURING MIDDAY THAT
MAY REACH MVFR. UKI IS IN THE FOG THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SUCH
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE IFR DOMINATE CURRENTLY...BY DAYBREAK
CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO VFR. CLOUDS WILL INC AND LOWER TONIGHT
AS A WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN MENDOCINO COUNTY AREA. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH EARLY SUN MORN CAUSING MVFR.
BFG
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FOR SUN FOR PZZ470
SCA FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KSTO 211202
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/S SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE VALLEY HAS CLEARED OUT
WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDINESS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. MUCH OF THIS REMAINING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY SUNRISE AS A LITTLE STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE VALLEY...WET
GROUND AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED PATCHES OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
AND THESE WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE NORTHERLY FLOW
AND BETTER MIXING DEVELOP.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE MOVING
INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ANY UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS STAYING WELL TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS EVIDENT CROSSING 150W AND
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS NEXT WAVE WILL BE
FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO OREGON AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ALLOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY TO THE NORTH
OF I-80 LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WHILE MILDER VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GETS DURING THE WEEK AND WHETHER
IT PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO REALIZE SOME OF THIS WARMING AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE LATER THANKSGIVING OR FRIDAY
WITH THE ECMWF FASTER ON THE TIMING OF EITHER THE GFS OR GEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPR TROF MOVS INTO GRT BASIN THIS MRNG AS WK HIGH BLDS INTO NORCAL
TDA. WRMFNT AND ASSOCD UPR TROF MOV INTO NORCAL TNGT INTO SUN. FOR
INTR NORCAL AREAS IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG/ST TIL ARND 18Z OTRW VFR
CONDS THRU 06Z SUN. FOR CNTRL VLY AFT 06Z SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDS MNLY N OF I-80 IN -RA/BR. FOR FTHLS/MTNS AFT 06Z SUN...WDSPRD
IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDS OBSCRG TRRN DVLPG FM N-S OVNGT SAT INTO SUN
MRNG. SN LVLS GENLY 045-055 MSL. AREAS WLY SFC WND GSTS TO 30 KTS OR
GTR OVR HYR MTN TRRN AFT 06Z SUN.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KREV 211135
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
335 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
KRGX RADAR LOOP IS INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF PROBABLE SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY OCCURRING IN FAR NWRN NV AND SURPRISE VALLEY. NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS FROM ALTURAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW WHILE MESOWEST DATA
FROM CEDARVILLE AND FT BIDWELL HAVE ACCUMULATED 0.01 TO 0.02 INCH
OF PRECIP PER HOUR SINCE LATE FRI EVENING. WEAK SECONDARY VORT
CENTER MOVING ACROSS NRN CA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP APPEARS
TO BE THE FORCE BEHIND THIS LIGHT SNOW. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK SO ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS THRU 15Z FOR A SMALL PART OF NWRN NV.
OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
40S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NWRN US TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ONLY ISOLD
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF NERN CA-NWRN NV
AND PORTIONS OF THE TAHOE BASIN LATE TONIGHT THRU SUN MORNING.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EFFECT BEING INCREASED WINDS. 700 MB FLOW
BRIEFLY REACHES 50 KT BTWN 12Z-18Z SUNDAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS. WHILE THE PEAK SPEEDS ARE
UNLIKELY TO COME CLOSE TO THE 100+ MPH VALUES THAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 70-80 MPH GUSTS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY. WITH SOME MIXING LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH. LAKE WIND ADVY
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR BOTH TAHOE AND PYRAMID UNLESS NEXT
RUN OF GUIDANCE BACKS OFF ON THE 700 MB FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THIS MIXING...WHICH WILL
PARTIALLY OFFSET THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
FOR SUN NGT-MONDAY...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CA-NV AND PRODUCE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK NE SFC FLOW AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PRODUCE
INVERSION CONDITIONS RESULTING IN LIMITED HEATING FOR VALLEYS BUT
PUSH TEMPS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM SUNDAY.
MJD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AS
THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC ENERGY TO ENTER THE WEST COAST...FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE SIERRA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INVERSIONS IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO PREVENT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND.
ECMWF REMAINS MORE CONSISTENT AND AGGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY ENTERING
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT THE LOW CHANCE OR
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS
AND IT ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ENERGY...WITH A WARMER
AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS WOULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AFTER 08Z TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
OREGON. GUSTS IN THE VALLEYS COULD REACH 30KTS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHERN SIERRA RIDGE WINDS NEAR 40-50 KTS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 211057
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
257 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
EXPECT DRY AND WARMING WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL INTO KERN
COUNTY AND A EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION WAS RATHER LIGHT. RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME NORTHWARD BOUND ECHOES FROM FRESNO
NORTH INTO YOSEMITE AND THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY CAUSED BY A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PUSHING RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. IN THE VERY FAST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
FORECAST MODELS RACE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTH STATE
TONIGHT HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
HANFORD FORECAST AREA. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE
SIERRA WILL CONTINUE AND THEN DECLINE BY SUNRISE. MEANWHILE, OVER
KERN COUNTY THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WRING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE TEHACHAPI AND GRAPEVINE AREA MOUNTAINS. BEGINNING LATER
SUNDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED BY ALL MODELS TO
BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS WILL QUITE EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE
STORM TRACK WELL NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
IN KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE HOWEVER ON THANKSGIVING, THE ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND DRIVES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE STRONG ANTICYLONE IN PLACE. FOR
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IT WILL BE DRY EITHER WAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT I DON`T SEE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THE BIG
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MORNING FOG IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. WILL NEED TO WATCH JUST IF AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FOG MIGHT GET UNDER A RIDGE IN LATE NOVEMBER. &&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH MID-MORNING. EXPECT SOME IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI RANGE DUE TO AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS. ACROSS THE DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 211031
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND PATCHY COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. WARMER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...THERE WERE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG W OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATED INCREASING
WLY WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 4 MB SAN-IPL.
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAVE BEHIND A LITTLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG W OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES TODAY. DRY NW FLOW WITH
SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOL TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN MOST AREAS. CLEAR AND WARMER MONDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
MOST AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES INLAND FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES AT TIMES BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WITH MOST GUSTS LESS THAN
35 MPH. COOLER FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE N AND ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS. THE LONG PERIOD OF WARM DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER HAZARD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
211020Z...MOIST LAYER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR VIS/CIGS AT TIMES THROUGH 15Z SAT. SCT-BKN CIGS WILL VARY
FROM 1.5K TO 3.5K FT MSL OVERNIGHT...WITH TOPS RISING TO FL050 ON
SAT. CIG DETAIL AND TIMING UNCERTAIN AT VARIOUS TAF SITES. EXPECT
ANY AREAS OF BKN-OVC CIGS TO SCATTER NEAR THE COAST AFTER 17Z ON
SAT...BUT REMAIN BACKED UP AGAINST SOME COASTAL SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE DAY...LOCALLY OBSCURING THE TERRAIN ABOVE 3K FEET.
WIDESPREAD 1-3SM VIS IN FOG SHOULD MIX OUT TO 5SM OR MORE BY 17Z.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z ON SAT.
LOCAL 25-30 KT WEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES THROUGH
18Z...RESULTING IN SOME MOUNTAIN WAVES IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE DESERT SLOPES...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...JAD
000
FXUS65 KPSR 210927
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PROGESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE PAC NW WILL BE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. LATEST 00Z 500MB
PLOT DATA SHOWED SIGNFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...130-170M...OCCURING OVER
NRN NEVADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...BUT ONLY 10M FALLS WERE
SEEN AT FLG. OUR AIRMASS IS VERY DRY ATTM...WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW
0.10 INCH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LOW...AT 2 AM THEY WERE
RUNNING IN THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. SO...AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY ALL IT WILL BRING IS A BIT OF COOLING AND SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS...AND POSSIBLY SOME BREEZES. IR IMAGERY AT 2M SHOWED
THE HIGH CLOUD BAND AHEAD OF THE TROF/FRONT MOVING INTO SRN CA AND
WESTERN AZ. THICKNESS FALLS OVER OUR CWA TODAY WILL BE
MEAGER...AROUND 30M...AND MAX TEMPS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BUT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PHOENIX
NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IS 73...AND THE FORECAST HIGH IS 76 DEGREES.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH
IF AT ALL. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...MOSTLY
SUNNY OR SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE ON TAP EACH DAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...KEEPING RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH A SPLIT IN THE FLOW AND A WEAK BAGGY
TROF WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WARMER DESERTS
REACHING TO AROUND 80 OVER THE WARMEST DESERTS BY THURSDAY...UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW SHOULD NOT PLAY A
ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...PROGS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT...AS THE GFS TAKES THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EAST THRU THE NRN TIER OF
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND TOWARDS ARIZONA. TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF A BIT DUE TO
ITS TRACK RECORD OVER THE GFS IN PAST MONTHS...BUT ATTM EVEN ITS
SOLUTION STILL APPEARS DRY WITH ANY QPF MOSTLY STAYING NORTH OF
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. MEX MOS NUMBERS REMAIN SINGLE DIGITS AT DAY 7.
THUS WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z
SUN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GUSTY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
000
FXUS66 KMTR 210647
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
850 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY HAD NEARLY EXITED OUR FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY EVENING AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA SOUTHWEST THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE COOL AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY ENDED IN THE NORTH
BAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO END ELSEWHERE BY MIDNIGHT AS A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH A WET GROUND THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. A FORECAST
UPDATE WAS ISSUED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REMOVE EARLY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND TO ADD PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH BAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE IN THE NORTH
BAY MOUNTAINS WERE LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH FELL. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE NORTH BAY RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXCEPT IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE AS MUCH
AS A HALF INCH FELL. MOST OF THE RAIN-SHELTERED VALLEYS FROM SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD ONLY PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 40 AND
50 MPH WERE COMMON IN THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS
WELL AS AT A FEW OF THE WINDIER SPOTS NEAR SEA LEVEL.
FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...TODAY`S RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY BE THE
LAST FOR A WHILE. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A DRY PATTERN RETURNING
THIS WEEKEND AND FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THERE ARE...
HOWEVER...SOME EXCEPTIONS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z
ECWMF AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH INDICATE THAT A FAST-MOVING
FRONT MAY CLIP THE NORTH BAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT IN BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY AN
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 PM PST FRIDAY...COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. NO CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR MRY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND AREAS OF GROUND FOG
AROUND STS THROUGH 18Z.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. CEILINGS NOT
EXPECTED.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND MRY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. OTHERWISE SCT
CONDITINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 210558 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
958 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TAPERING OFF
TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY. COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING DRY
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO SLO COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH TOTALS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS SO FAR. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN SBA COUNTY...BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE
FRONTAL BAND IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. MOST OF THE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF SANTA
BARBARA AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL
LOOKS GOOD FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT ANY AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 7000
FEET ACROSS SOUTH FACING SLOPES...BUT COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5500
FEET ON NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AS SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS IN TYPICAL AREAS...WITH WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLY ISSUED FOR
THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR OF THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS. THE COOLING WILL BE A
RESULT OF CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP TO
NORMAL AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE GFS DOES SHOW A CURIOUS BACK DOOR SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
ON WED BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO IT`S IMPACT
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS TUE/WED BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL SO WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE WARMING UP INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...21/0558Z.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z TONIGHT...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANT.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS. AT LOS
ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH AT 08Z TONIGHT...THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS.
THE CHANCE FOR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY BY 12Z SATURDAY.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT 09Z...THEN THERE IS
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. THE CHANCE FOR A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL INCREASE TO
60 PERCENT BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP...MVFR
CATEGORY CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
TURBULENCE IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MEIER
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KEKA 210531 AAA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
931 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARMER AND DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY QUITE VIGOROUS NEAR THE COAST...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING MORE DISORGANIZED AND LIGHTER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE
CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 158 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARMER DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA PER HPC
FRONTAL ANALYSIS...WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONT. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE AREA
INCLUDE 1.54 INCHES IN CRESCENT CITY AND 2.02 IN HONEYDEW...WITH
MOST AREAS IN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY REPORTING 0.70 TO 1.60 INCHES OF
PRECIP. IN MENDOCINO COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 1.00 INLAND. ONLY A FEW SNOW TOTALS
ARE AVAILABLE SO FAR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT A TRACE TO 1 INCH OF
SNOW FELL BETWEEN 2000 TO 3000 FT ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF MENDOCINO. EXPECT THE SAME MAY BE TRUE FOR THE
FAR EASTERN HUMBOLDT MOUNTAINS SUCH AS SOUTH FORK PASS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS SNOW
FLURRIES MAY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 2000 FT OR BELOW. THAT SAID...THE
COASTAL HILLS MAY SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW BUT FOR THE MOST PART
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE IN NEAR 2500 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A VERY WEAK RIDGE WILL ALLOW PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRYING ON SATURDAY
AS TODAY`S STORM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEXT STORM APPEARS TO
BE QUITE VIGOROUS...BUT THE MAIN BULK OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM...WITH A WARMER
AIR MASS AND QPF TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 INCHES WITH LESS OVER
MENDOCINO AND UP TO 0.75 OVER THE SMITH RIVER BASIN.
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST SHOWS THE SUNDAY STORM MOVING INLAND FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE E PAC
BY MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE BUT THE EFFECT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA
REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE MODELS WORK ON BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG LOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS MAY BE SLOWING
DOWN THE TIMING WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON MODEL TIMING AND CONSISTENCY FOR THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD. CMC
MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER A PERSISTENT WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASE WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES TO THE
WATERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHEN A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. ENP/HANSON PLOTS SHOWING A LONGER PERIOD
SWELL TRAIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS BY MID WEEK. HENRY
AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. HENRY
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS65 KREV 210530 AAB
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
930 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
SYSTEM WINDING DOWN FOR OUR AREA AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SRN NV
AND ERN GREAT BASIN AND DYNAMICS SHIFT WELL OFF TO THE EAST. RDG
WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 100 MPH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVRNGT. WINDS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS CONT TO DECREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY AND
WARNING LVLS. WL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM
FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. WL ALSO CLEAN UP ZONE WORDING WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA CREST AND NR THE OR
BORDER. REMAINDER OF FCST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES OUT BY 10 PM.
HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
CANCELING WINTER STORM WARNINGS EARLY AS STEADY HEAVY SNOW HAS
ENDED. STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOCALIZED AND 2 INCHES AT MOST.
WILL ALSO CANCEL DUST STORM WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
RAPIDLY NEAR FALLON AND LOVELOCK AND THERE ARE NO FURTHER REPORTS
OF BLOWING DUST. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MONO/MINERAL
AND LET THEM RUN THEIR COURSE AS GUSTS ARE STILL AROUND 60 MPH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS THERE. UPDATES OUT BY 715 PM. WALLMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG
A DENIO TO MARKLEEVILLE LINE. NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT IS WHERE
PRECIP BAND IS WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW IN SIERRA WITH IT A
LITTLE LIGHTER IN LEE SIDE DESERTS. WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DUST STORM OVER BASIN AND RANGE. BLOWING DUST PLUMES
SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR IMAGERY.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...WARNINGS
LOOK GOOD. WIND STATEMENTS ALSO LOOK GOOD TO EXPIRE FOR RENO/TAHOE
AREA AT 4 PM...WITH WARNINGS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THRU 10 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 60-70 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD
OF FRONT.
AS FRONT CLEARS AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
AND WIND WITH FLAT RIDGE FOR SAT. WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH BY THE AREA
SUN MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH ROUGHLY. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HOWEVER...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY.
AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SUN...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL WARM IN MTNS BETTER THAN VALLEYS WHICH WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE INVERSIONS. WALLMANN
LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING DEEPER AND FASTER. LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS...THE TAIL END OF THE RIDGE KEEPS MOST
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCES MENTIONED
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO OVERALL MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
LABELLE
AVIATION...
STRONG AND FAST MOVING STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST...BUT THE EMPHASIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KWMC TO KRNO THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO KMMH. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCLUDING KLOL AND KNFL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS 40-50 KTS AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH 02Z. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCLUDING KRNO AND THE REST OF THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES IN...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DECREASE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS AND BEST GUESS ON TIMING IS TO OCCUR
FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z.
FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS INCLUDING KTRK AND KTVL...SNOW QUICKLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z HOWEVER SHSN AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. IF KTRK
CLEARS UP FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z. JORDAN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 210524
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ROUNDING POINT CONCEPTION THIS EVENING WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A BRIEFLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER.
ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING WARMER
WEATHER AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE LOSING THEIR PUNCH
AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS HAS
FORMED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING BUT IT IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. WHILE WE EXPECT SOME CLOUD EXPANSION OVERNIGHT
UNDERNEATH A WEAK INVERSION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A THICK SOLID
OVERCAST IS UNLIKELY. AND WITHOUT A SOLID OVERCAST...CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE ARE MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE DRIZZLE FROM
THE FORECAST AND TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. THEN ON SATURDAY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WEAKEN THE
INVERSION AND ANY MORNING CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPS BEGIN TO RECOVER SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NO REAL SIGN OF ANY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ON THE HORIZON THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
210500Z...BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WITH BASE 1000 FT MSL AND LOCAL VSBY 4-6SM AS A WEAK MARINE LAYER
FRONT EASES IN AND DISSIPATES. A WEAK TROF WILL CAUSE ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRATUS WITH BASE AROUND 3000 FT MSL EARLY THROUGH MID SAT
AM. PARTLY CLOUDY W OF MTS REST OF DAY WITH SCT040 STRATOCU IN WAKE
OF TROF. AREAS OF STRATUS WITH BASE 1500 FT MSL EXPECTED MAINLY SAN
DIEGO CO CSTL ZONE LATE THIS EVENING WITH EARLY CLEARING SUN AM AS
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS.
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION...MACKECHNIE
000
FXUS66 KHNX 210520
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
920 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL CA AROUND MDNT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIP HAS BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR...ESPECIALLY AROUND YOSEMITE PARK.
HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS PRECIP NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING TO PUSH INTO FAR NW KERN CO. WHETHER
IT MAKES IT ANY FARTHER SOUTH IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. LEFT SOME
SMALL CHANCE POPS OVERNITE AS FRONT HAS YET TO MOVE THRU THERE.
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE VALLEY SAT. CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN
FRI AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTH CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY AFFECTED THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH
AND BELOW THE PASSES. TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FORECAST VALUES
AROUND BAKERSFIELD DUE WARMING DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE
TEHACHAPIS. PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SE JUST
REACHING THE NORTH PORTIONS OF YOSEMITE AND MERCED COUNTY. RADAR
INDICATES THE RAIN BAND IS NARROW AND MAY ONLY PROVIDE LIGHT
AMOUNTS RAIN OVER THE VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN SW-NE ALONG WITH A
95KT UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY AND BLOWING SNOW DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS PROG THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF THE SIERRA AROUND 06Z OUTPACING THE FRONT
AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER YOSEMITE
AND QUICKLY DECREASING SOUTH WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE
SOUTH VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY AREA. A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE UP SLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPIS MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WINDY THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES OF
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER
MORNINGS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FOG IN SJV WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PERHAPS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT SOME IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS EVENING DUE
TO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
IN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS IN ADDITION TO THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BINGHAM/MV
AVN/FW...JEB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSTO 210508
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
905 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW E OF NORCAL...PCPN HAS
DECREASED OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT UPSLOPE PCPN
CONTINUING OVER THE W SLOPE SIERNEV. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS THIS
EVENING AND CANCEL THE WSW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS LESS THAN .10 INCH
OF ADDITIONAL PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROF AND NWLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE
COASTAL MTNS HAS CLEARED SKIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY...STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM
OVERNITE. IF STRATUS/FOG DOES NOT FORM FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...WE THINK THAT NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...VERTICAL
MIXING WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO FORM A STRATUS LAYER...AND THE VALLEY
WILL CLOUD-UP/CLOUD-OVER IN THE MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL THEN LIFT
INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK...BUT THEN SHOULD ERODE/BURN OFF DURING THE
DAY ON SAT. THE UPSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS IN THE SIERNEV
FOOTHILLS...WHERE SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES
OVERNITE. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL MTNS...BUT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER THE
COASTAL RANGE AS WELL. JHM
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE WARNING AREA TODAY WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND JUST THROUGH STOCKTON AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SINCE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED AND THE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORIES...HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVED INTO INTERIOR NRN CAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER THE NRN
SAC VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL LINGER OVER
THE NRN SAC VALLEY AND ADJACENT SIERRA FOOTHILLS UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AID IN THE
PRECIP TOTAL. PRECIP VALUES IN THE SIERRA RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 0.20
TO 0.95 INCHES TODAY SO FAR. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THUS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BY SUNRISE TO
JUST UNDER 2500 FT FROM THE NRN COASTALS TO THE SRN CASCADES AND
3000 TO 3500 FT OVER THE SIERRA WITH SOME ISOLATED VALLEYS MAYBE A
BIT LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. HOWEVER A WEAKENING OROGRAPHIC WIND
COMPONENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE
OVERALL WEAKENING OROGRAPHIC WIND COMPONENT...WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1000 PM OVER
THE NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY AND DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE BURNEY BASIN AND DOWN THE WEST
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS THE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE WINDS. RIGHT NOW THE WINDS
MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO FORM.
A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL ENSUE OVER THE NRN CAL SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM SKIMS NRN CAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN PLACE. JMC
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING MILD AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH VALLEY DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA COULD BRUSH NORCAL THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL VALLEY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND MAY
ALLOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OVER THE SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUING
SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS AROUND
3000-4000 FT FOR TONIGHT. THE FOOTHILLS MAY EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG/STRATUS BRINGING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STRONG WSW
WIND GUSTS 40 KTS INTO THIS EVENING OVER RIDGETOPS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EK
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 210449
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
850 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY HAD NEARLY EXITED OUR FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY EVENING AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA SOUTHWEST THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE COOL AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY ENDED IN THE NORTH
BAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO END ELSEWHERE BY MIDNIGHT AS A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH A WET GROUND THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. A FORECAST
UPDATE WAS ISSUED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REMOVE EARLY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND TO ADD PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH BAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE IN THE NORTH
BAY MOUNTAINS WERE LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH FELL. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THE NORTH BAY RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH EXCEPT IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE AS MUCH
AS A HALF INCH FELL. MOST OF THE RAIN-SHELTERED VALLEYS FROM SANTA
CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD ONLY PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 40 AND
50 MPH WERE COMMON IN THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS
WELL AS AT A FEW OF THE WINDIER SPOTS NEAR SEA LEVEL.
FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...TODAY`S RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY BE THE
LAST FOR A WHILE. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A DRY PATTERN RETURNING
THIS WEEKEND AND FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THERE ARE...
HOWEVER...SOME EXCEPTIONS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC
NW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z
ECWMF AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH INDICATE THAT A FAST-MOVING
FRONT MAY CLIP THE NORTH BAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT IN BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY AN
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE SF BAY AREA WITH WINDS NOW WESTERLY. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING
TONIGHT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO LOW CEILINGS.
HOWEVER STS COULD GET SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MOSTLY SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR
A POSSIBLE SHOWER THROUGH 03Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...ROUGHLY THE SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...BACK EDGE OF FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AFTER 02Z WITH LIGHT RAIN TAPERING
OFF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MRY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA/W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 210441
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TAPERING OFF TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO SLO COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH TOTALS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS SO FAR. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN SBA COUNTY...BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE FRONTAL
BAND IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF SANTA BARBARA AS THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...BUT ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 7000 FEET ACROSS SOUTH FACING
SLOPES...BUT COULD LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET ON NORTH FACING SLOPES OF
THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
IN TYPICAL AREAS...WITH WIND ADVISORIES POSSIBLY ISSUED FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF THE
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS. THE COOLING WILL BE A RESULT
OF CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE
WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. HIGHS WILL BE BACK UP TO NORMAL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE GFS DOES SHOW A CURIOUS BACK DOOR SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
ON WED BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO IT`S IMPACT
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS TUE/WED BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL SO WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE WARMING UP INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...21/0430Z.
CEILINGS GENERALLY IN THE 1500-2500 FOOT RANGE ACROSS SLO COUNTY THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...LOOK FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS TO BE ON
INCREASE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. ANY CEILINGS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1500 TO 2500
FOOT RANGE.
KLAX...LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH CEILING LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT CEILING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1500 TO 2500
FOOT RANGE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KLAX.
KBUR...FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT A CEILING WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CEILING HEIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1500 TO 2500 FOOT RANGE. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KBUR.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...MEIER
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 210304
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE DESERT
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT DRY FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK OK AS EXPLAINED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. NO UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING EL CENTRO...
IMPERIAL AND YUMA SATURDAY...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY...CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE DESERT
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z
SUN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GUSTY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
000
FXUS65 KREV 210257 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
657 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
CANCELING WINTER STORM WARNINGS EARLY AS STEADY HEAVY SNOW HAS
ENDED. STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOCALIZED AND 2 INCHES AT MOST.
WILL ALSO CANCEL DUST STORM WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
RAPIDLY NEAR FALLON AND LOVELOCK AND THERE ARE NO FURTHER REPORTS
OF BLOWING DUST. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MONO/MINERAL
AND LET THEM RUN THEIR COURSE AS GUSTS ARE STILL AROUND 60 MPH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS THERE. UPDATES OUT BY 715 PM. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG
A DENIO TO MARKLEEVILLE LINE. NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT IS WHERE
PRECIP BAND IS WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW IN SIERRA WITH IT A
LITTLE LIGHTER IN LEE SIDE DESERTS. WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DUST STORM OVER BASIN AND RANGE. BLOWING DUST PLUMES
SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR IMAGERY.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...WARNINGS
LOOK GOOD. WIND STATEMENTS ALSO LOOK GOOD TO EXPIRE FOR RENO/TAHOE
AREA AT 4 PM...WITH WARNINGS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THRU 10 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 60-70 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD
OF FRONT.
AS FRONT CLEARS AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
AND WIND WITH FLAT RIDGE FOR SAT. WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH BY THE AREA
SUN MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH ROUGHLY. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HOWEVER...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY.
AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SUN...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL WARM IN MTNS BETTER THAN VALLEYS WHICH WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE INVERSIONS. WALLMANN
LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING DEEPER AND FASTER. LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS...THE TAIL END OF THE RIDGE KEEPS MOST
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCES MENTIONED
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO OVERALL MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
LABELLE
AVIATION...
STRONG AND FAST MOVING STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST...BUT THE EMPHASIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KWMC TO KRNO THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO KMMH. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCLUDING KLOL AND KNFL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS 40-50 KTS AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH 02Z. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCLUDING KRNO AND THE REST OF THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES IN...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DECREASE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS AND BEST GUESS ON TIMING IS TO OCCUR
FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z.
FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS INCLUDING KTRK AND KTVL...SNOW QUICKLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z HOWEVER SHSN AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. IF KTRK CLEARS
UP FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 15Z. JORDAN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 210103 CCA
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
500 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE WARNING AREA TODAY WITH THE BACK
EDGE OF THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND JUST THROUGH STOCKTON AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SINCE THE FRONT HAS
PASSED AND THE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORIES...HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVED INTO INTERIOR NRN CAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER THE NRN
SAC VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL LINGER OVER
THE NRN SAC VALLEY AND ADJACENT SIERRA FOOTHILLS UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE SIERRA AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AID IN THE
PRECIP TOTAL. PRECIP VALUES IN THE SIERRA RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 0.20
TO 0.95 INCHES TODAY SO FAR. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THUS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BY SUNRISE TO
JUST UNDER 2500 FT FROM THE NRN COASTALS TO THE SRN CASCADES AND
3000 TO 3500 FT OVER THE SIERRA WITH SOME ISOLATED VALLEYS MAYBE A
BIT LOWER THAN ADVERTISED. HOWEVER A WEAKENING OROGRAPHIC WIND
COMPONENT WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE
OVERALL WEAKENING OROGRAPHIC WIND COMPONENT...WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1000 PM OVER
THE NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY AND DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE BURNEY BASIN AND DOWN THE WEST
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM.
AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS THE SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE WINDS. RIGHT NOW THE WINDS
MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS TO FORM.
A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL ENSUE OVER THE NRN CAL SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM SKIMS NRN CAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN PLACE. JMC
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING MILD AND
DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH VALLEY DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. ANOTHER SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA COULD BRUSH NORCAL THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. JBB
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS NEAR KRDD-KRBL VCNTY HAD SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EASTWARD BUT OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SACRAMENTO VALLEY THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT THE VALLEY THIS EVENING BUT
WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING
SACRAMENTO AREA TAF SITES. FOR HIGHER TERRAIN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR
CONDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUING SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS BECOMING
3000-4000 FT FOR TONIGHT. STRONG S-SW WINDS WITH GUSTS 40-50 KTS
INTO THIS EVENING OVER RIDGETOPS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. JBB/EK
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BURNEY BASIN /
EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN
PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-SHASTA LAKE AREA
/ NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 210042
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
229 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:28 PM PST FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WITH ISOLATED MODERATE INTENSITY SHOWERS AS
WELL. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
WITH WATSONVILLE AIRPORT REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND MONTEREY AIRPORT
REPORTING HEAVY RAIN. BEHIND THE COLD FROM SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY
MAY GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
NORTHBAY AREA. THIS INSTABILITY AND RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 0600 UTC.
BOTH THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICT A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOMORROW WITH A FEW UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SLIDING OVER THE CWA TOMORROW. WITH THIS IN MIND THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER IN THE NORTHBAY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THANKSGIVING THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE MOVING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS OF COURSE WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHBAY OVER
THANKSGIVING. BUT THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE BY FAIRLY QUICKLY SO
AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THANKSGIVING WILL BE WET THE
ENTIRE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
THE SF BAY AREA WITH WINDS NOW WESTERLY. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING
TONIGHT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO LOW CEILINGS.
HOWEVER STS COULD GET SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MOSTLY SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR
A POSSIBLE SHOWER THROUGH 03Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...ROUGHLY THE SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...BACK EDGE OF FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH.
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AFTER 02Z WITH LIGHT RAIN TAPERING
OFF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MRY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA ALL COASTAL WATERS
...SCA SFO AND MONTEREY BAYS
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA/W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 202343
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
343 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
OVER THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS MAINLY AFFECTED
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH AND BELOW THE
PASSES. TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FORECAST VALUES AROUND BAKERSFIELD
DUE WARMING DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE TEHACHAPIS. PRECIPITATION
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SE JUST REACHING THE NORTH PORTIONS OF
YOSEMITE AND MERCED COUNTY. RADAR INDICATES THE RAIN BAND IS
NARROW AND MAY ONLY PROVIDE LIGHT AMOUNTS RAIN OVER THE VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
FRONT WILL ALIGN SW-NE ALONG WITH A 95KT UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY AND
BLOWING SNOW DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
PROG THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF THE SIERRA
AROUND 06Z OUTPACING THE FRONT AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER YOSEMITE AND QUICKLY DECREASING SOUTH WITH
MINIMAL AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY AREA. A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE UP
SLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPIS MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD BECOME
BREEZY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WINDY THROUGH AND BELOW THE
PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
COLDER MORNINGS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FOG IN SJV WILL
RETURN SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PERHAPS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THIS EVENING DUE TO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS.
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN ADDITION TO THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ096.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON/DURFEE/MENDENHALL
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KHNX 202317
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
256 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
OVER THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS MAINLY AFFECTED
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH AND BELOW THE
PASSES. TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FORECAST VALUES AROUND BAKERSFIELD
DUE WARMING DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE TEHACHAPIS. PRECIPITATION
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SE JUST REACHING THE NORTH PORTIONS OF
YOSEMITE AND MERCED COUNTY. RADAR INDICATES THE RAIN BAND IS
NARROW AND MAY ONLY PROVIDE LIGHT AMOUNTS RAIN OVER THE VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
FRONT WILL ALIGN SW-NE ALONG WITH A 95KT UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY AND
BLOWING SNOW DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
PROG THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF THE SIERRA
AROUND 06Z OUTPACING THE FRONT AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER YOSEMITE AND QUICKLY DECREASING SOUTH WITH
MINIMAL AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY AREA. A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE UP
SLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPIS MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD BECOME
BREEZY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WINDY THROUGH AND BELOW THE
PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
COLDER MORNINGS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FOG IN SJV WILL
RETURN SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PERHAPS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
THIS EVENING DUE TO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS.
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN ADDITION TO THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ096.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KHNX 202256
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
256 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
OVER THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND EXITS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS MAINLY AFFECTED
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH AND BELOW THE
PASSES. TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FORECAST VALUES AROUND BAKERSFIELD
DUE WARMING DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE TEHACHAPIS. PRECIPITATION
ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SE JUST REACHING THE NORTH PORTIONS OF
YOSEMITE AND MERCED COUNTY. RADAR INDICATES THE RAIN BAND IS
NARROW AND MAY ONLY PROVIDE LIGHT AMOUNTS RAIN OVER THE VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
FRONT WILL ALIGN SW-NE ALONG WITH A 95KT UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY AND
BLOWING SNOW DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
PROG THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING EAST OF THE SIERRA
AROUND 06Z OUTPACING THE FRONT AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER YOSEMITE AND QUICKLY DECREASING SOUTH WITH
MINIMAL AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY AREA. A
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE UP
SLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPIS MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD BECOME
BREEZY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WINDY THROUGH AND BELOW THE
PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
COLDER MORNINGS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FOG IN SJV WILL
RETURN SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK PERHAPS BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 20Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT BETWEEN 20Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 02Z SATURDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ096.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS65 KREV 202248
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
248 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG
A DENIO TO MARKLEEVILLE LINE. NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT IS WHERE
PRECIP BAND IS WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW IN SIERRA WITH IT A
LITTLE LIGHTER IN LEE SIDE DESERTS. WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DUST STORM OVER BASIN AND RANGE. BLOWING DUST PLUMES
SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR IMAGERY.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...WARNINGS
LOOK GOOD. WIND STATEMENTS ALSO LOOK GOOD TO EXPIRE FOR RENO/TAHOE
AREA AT 4 PM...WITH WARNINGS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THRU 10 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 60-70 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD
OF FRONT.
AS FRONT CLEARS AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
AND WIND WITH FLAT RIDGE FOR SAT. WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH BY THE AREA
SUN MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH ROUGHLY. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HOWEVER...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY.
AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SUN...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL WARM IN MTNS BETTER THAN VALLEYS WHICH WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE INVERSIONS. WALLMANN
.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING DEEPER AND FASTER. LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS...THE TAIL END OF THE RIDGE KEEPS MOST
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCES MENTIONED
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO OVERALL MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
LABELLE
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG AND FAST MOVING STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST...BUT THE EMPHASIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KWMC TO KRNO THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO KMMH. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCLUDING KLOL AND KNFL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS 40-50 KTS AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH 02Z. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCLUDING KRNO AND THE REST OF THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES IN...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DECREASE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS AND BEST GUESS ON TIMING IS TO OCCUR
FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z.
FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS INCLUDING KTRK AND KTVL...SNOW QUICKLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z HOWEVER SHSN AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. IF KTRK CLEARS
UP FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 15Z. JORDAN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 202229
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
229 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:28 PM PST FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA WITH ISOLATED MODERATE INTENSITY SHOWERS AS
WELL. CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE MONTEREY BAY AREA
WITH WATSONVILLE AIRPORT REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND MONTEREY AIRPORT
REPORTING HEAVY RAIN. BEHIND THE COLD FROM SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY
MAY GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
NORTHBAY AREA. THIS INSTABILITY AND RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 0600 UTC.
BOTH THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICT A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOMORROW WITH A FEW UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SLIDING OVER THE CWA TOMORROW. WITH THIS IN MIND THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER IN THE NORTHBAY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUGGESTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THANKSGIVING THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE MOVING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS OF COURSE WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHBAY OVER
THANKSGIVING. BUT THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE BY FAIRLY QUICKLY SO
AT THIS POINT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THANKSGIVING WILL BE WET THE
ENTIRE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:03 AM PST FRIDAY...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND SPREAD RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 19Z-21Z TODAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS TO AROUND 3000 FEET AND
MODERATE RAIN. WINDS TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 22Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...ROUGHLY THE SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 22Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN EXPECTED AS WELL AS LOWERING
CIGS AFTER 20Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...GLW SFO BAY
...SCA ALL COASTAL WATERS
...SCA MONTEREY BAY
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KEKA 202159
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
158 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARMER DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA PER HPC
FRONTAL ANALYSIS...WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONT. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM AROUND THE AREA
INCLUDE 1.54 INCHES IN CRESCENT CITY AND 2.02 IN HONEYDEW...WITH
MOST AREAS IN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY REPORTING 0.70 TO 1.60 INCHES OF
PRECIP. IN MENDOCINO COUNTY RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 1.00 TO 1.50
INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 1.00 INLAND. ONLY A FEW SNOW TOTALS
ARE AVAILABLE SO FAR...WITH INDICATIONS THAT A TRACE TO 1 INCH OF
SNOW FELL BETWEEN 2000 TO 3000 FT ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF MENDOCINO. EXPECT THE SAME MAY BE TRUE FOR THE
FAR EASTERN HUMBOLDT MOUNTAINS SUCH AS SOUTH FORK PASS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS SNOW
FLURRIES MAY MIX DOWN TO NEAR 2000 FT OR BELOW. THAT SAID...THE
COASTAL HILLS MAY SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW BUT FOR THE MOST PART
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE IN NEAR 2500 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A VERY WEAK RIDGE WILL ALLOW PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRYING ON SATURDAY
AS TODAY`S STORM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEXT STORM APPEARS TO
BE QUITE VIGOROUS...BUT THE MAIN BULK OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM...WITH A WARMER
AIR MASS AND QPF TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 INCHES WITH LESS OVER
MENDOCINO AND UP TO 0.75 OVER THE SMITH RIVER BASIN.
THE LONGER TERM FORECAST SHOWS THE SUNDAY STORM MOVING INLAND FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE E PAC
BY MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE BUT THE EFFECT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA
REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE MODELS WORK ON BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG LOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE INDICATIONS ARE THAT A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS MAY BE SLOWING
DOWN THE TIMING WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON MODEL TIMING AND CONSISTENCY FOR THE HOLIDAY TIME PERIOD. CMC
&&
.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER A PERSISTENT WESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASE WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES TO THE
WATERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHEN A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. ENP/HANSON PLOTS SHOWING A LONGER PERIOD
SWELL TRAIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS BY MID WEEK. HENRY
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. HENRY
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR CAZ004.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM
SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS65 KPSR 202151
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE DESERT
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO
THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND CLOSE TO THE SAME
OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE
EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THE SAME
TIME YESTERDAY. WIND WAS GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING EL CENTRO...
IMPERIAL AND YUMA SATURDAY...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SUNDAY...CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT
OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE DESERT
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS...WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE WIND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO
BE VARIABLE AND VERY LIGHT AT KPHX THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY FROM THE WEST AT KPHX AND KIWA AND
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT KIPL AND KBLH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GUSTY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
000
FXUS66 KLOX 202136
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
135 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH RAIN LIKELY OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND
TAPERING OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY. COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...BRINGING DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TIME. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LIKELY LOSE MUCH OF IT`S PUNCH BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. SO MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF VENTURA COUNTY. STILL MIGHT GET
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT THOUGH ACROSS THE BASIN.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT, PUSHING
LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG UP THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO OUR INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND MTNS BORDERING KERN COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
WITH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH SOME OF THIS WIND FILTERING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER VALLEYS.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. HIGHS WILL BE BACK
UP TO NORMAL AND POSSIBLY EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE GFS DOES SHOW A CURIOUS BACK DOOR SYSTEM UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
ON WED BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO MOISTURE WITH IT SO IT`S IMPACT
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. OFFSHORE FLOW PEAKS TUE/WED BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL SO WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER SPOTS. HIGHS WILL BE WARMING UP INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION...20/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT EAST. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST AFTER 21/06Z WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MODERATE
NORTHWEST AFTER 21/12Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND
12.5KFT AND WILL DESCEND A FEW HUNDRED FEET TONIGHT. MARINE LAYER
WAS BELOW .5KFT THIS MORNING...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP...THEN AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA AROUND 21/09-12Z LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED.
KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS/VSBY 002/2SM WILL REDEVELOP BY 21/03Z
AND THEN ASCEND AND BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 21/11Z. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WIND SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE LIKELY AFTER 21/12Z.
KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...MEIER
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 202131
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH WERE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...MOVING
PAST THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO FAR SOCAL. IT
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF THE MARINE LAYER TONIGHT...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE SHOW
THE MARINE LAYER TO BE NOT AS DEEP. CURRENT GFS MODEL SHOWS THE
MARINE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 4-5K FT. ECMWF CROSS SECTION SHOWS A BIT
DEEPER MARINE LAYER. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH HAULS OUT OF HERE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER SOCAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE
THROUGH TO THE NORTH...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEXT FRIDAY. A
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN INCREASE
A LITTLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AND THEN
GO ONSHORE FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY...THEN WARMER SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
202045Z...BASED ON DEWPOINT INCREASES...MARINE LAYER DEPTH CURRENTLY
NEAR FL015. SCATTERED STRATUS LAYER BETWEEN FL008-FL012 OVER WATER
AND NEAR COAST AND BELOW FL008 VISIBILITY 3-5SM IN HAZE. BETWEEN
FL050-FL100 SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30 KT WITH
SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 30 KT REPORTED IN LEE OF MOUNTAINS. AS WEAKENING
TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT TO DOUBLE IN STRENGTH. EXPECT STRATUS LAYER TO LIFT AND
PUSH WELL INLAND BECOMING BROKEN-OVERCAST WITH BASES FL020 AND TOPS
FL070 BETWEEN 21/0300-21/0900 UTC. TROUGH AXIS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS REGION AND BE EAST OF COACHELLA VALLEY/ANZA BORREGO DESERT BY
21/2100 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN IT`S WAKE SHOULD LOWER MARINE
LAYER TO AOB FL030 AND SCATTER OUT STRATUS LAYER AFTER 21/2100 UTC.
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WHITLOW
AVIATION...BALFOUR
000
FXUS65 KREV 202128 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
128 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
DUST CONTINUES TO BE PICKED UP OFF SINKS NEAR I-80/HWY 50 IN WRN
NV. VIS SAT SHOWS NEXT IMPRESSIVE PLUME COMING OFF CARSON SINK
CURRENTLY. ISSUING DUST STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 4 THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR TAHOE AND LASSEN AS
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT. ALL OTHER STATEMENTS ON
TRACK AS WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45 TO 70 MPH...LOCALLY
STRONGER...EFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
BLOWING DUST...ROOFS LOOSING SHINGLES...POWER OUTAGES AND ISOLATED
TREES BEING BLOWN OVER. PRECIP IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPILL OVER INTO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS PRECIP AND FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP BAND IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS
WIDTH BUT HAS BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN
LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES. MILNE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND TO REMAIN
THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER PARTS OF ERN CA
AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 70-90 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN
TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN
REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. THE
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY BUSY
TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE PASSES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE RENO-CARSON
AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000 FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED
SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD MAY BE ICY PATCHES
LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY
OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AFTER
SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN
NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD TO A RAPID DROP IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS...ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 202054 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1250 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR TAHOE AND LASSEN AS
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT. ALL OTHER STATEMENTS ON
TRACK AS WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45 TO 70 MPH...LOCALLY
STRONGER...EFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
BLOWING DUST...ROOFS LOOSING SHINGLES...POWER OUTAGES AND ISOLATED
TREES BEING BLOWN OVER. PRECIP IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPILL OVER INTO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS PRECIP AND FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP BAND IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS
WIDTH BUT HAS BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN
LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES. MILNE
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND TO REMAIN
THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER PARTS OF ERN CA
AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 70-90 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN
TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN
REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. THE
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY BUSY
TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE PASSES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE RENO-CARSON
AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000 FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED
SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD MAY BE ICY PATCHES
LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY
OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AFTER
SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN
NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD TO A RAPID DROP IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS...ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 201832
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1030 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
OVER THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT AND EXITS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...12Z OAKLAND SOUNDING INDICATES STRONG SW 65KT AT
10KFT CAUSING SOME WAVE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE STRONGER WIND AND MIXING LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF FOG IN THE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR STRONG WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW THE COASTAL PASSES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THE CHOWCHILLA PROFILER INDICATES LOWER
LOW LEVEL WINDS SE 30 MPH AND 10C DEGREE WARMING. MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND TRAJECTORY OVER TOWARDS THE TEHACHAPI MNTS SHOULD DOWN SLOPE
OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY AND PROVIDE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE TOWARDS
BAKERSFIELD AREA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES IN PREVIOUS THINKING FOR
APPROACHING STORM.
&&
.EARLY DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING 130W WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD RAPIDLY MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NICE COLD POOL IS SHOWN ON INFRARED
IMAGES AND THIS AREA IS TAKING AIM ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BIG
QUESTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE AND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAST MOVING, LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOLUTION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS INTO KERN
COUNTY. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE AND THE CURRENT POP AND
QPF FIELDS LOOK GOOD. NOW FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING THREAT, IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON
WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR NOT. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
CRANKS OUT A RESPECTABLE 0.48" AT YOSEMITE VALLEY HOWEVER THE GFS
PRODUCES A WHOPPING 0.09". SINCE WFO HANFORD IS USING THE "FIRST
STORM OF THE SEASON" CRITERIA (1/2 OF THE NORMAL ACCUMULATION),
SOME AREAS OF YOSEMITE PARK JUST MAY EEK OUT SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW. AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THE RUC13 KEEPS THE AREA
FREE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BASED ON THE
NAM12 SOLUTION, ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BAND INTO KERN COUNTY LOOKS
LIKE A MID EVENING EVENT. WINDS OF COURSE WILL BE STRONG OVER THE
SIERRA CREST AND OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.
FOR EARLY SATURDAY, SOME TYPICAL LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEHACHAPI AND FRAZIER PARK AREA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID DAY. BY SUNDAY RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST AND LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE DAY AFTER TURKEY (OR TOFURKY) DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KFAT AND KMCE/KMER DUE TO BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR BETWEEN THE SFC AND 2KFT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA WHERE MID LEVEL JET WINDS (8KFT+) WILL RANGE BETWEEN
50-75KT. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR WILL PERSIST
OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT
BETWEEN 22Z FRIDAY AND 03Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER 02Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 10Z SATURDAY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY BETWEEN 10Z TO 18Z.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR CAZ096.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KLOX 201827
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1027 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...COLD FRONT MORE OR LESS ON TRACK FOR A
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY FALL APART ONCE IT ROUNDS PT
CONCEPTION BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT TO GENERATE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES
TONIGHT. A QUARTER INCH OR LESS STILL EXPECTED UP NORTH WITH JUST
TRACE AMOUNTS OR AT MOST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS DOWN SOUTH.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER-
LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTEN. A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT
WITH MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA. WHILE MODELS SOLUTIONS DO PUSH AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. MAINLY CLOUDS IF ANY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SLOPES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR THE CURRENT TIME WITH MORE
ATTENTION PAID TO THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM...SKY COVER REMAINS
UNCHANGED FOR THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES
HOLD OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE OFFSHORE PATTERN GAINING SOME STRENGTH FOR
MIDWEEK. GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SEEM TO INDICATE SOME
STRENGTHENING IN THE LOWER-LEVEL THERMAL AND FLOW PATTERN FOR
DEVELOPING POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED HIGHER FOR
MIDWEEK...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THANKSGIVING DAY COULD BE A BIT
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT PACKAGE SUGGESTS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND....MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH SCHEDULED TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE THE FAR
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...WHILE GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE. BEST INDICATIONS FOR THE CURRENT TIME ARE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE AN INSIDE-TRACK...KEEPING THE AREA DRY.
SO...THE BEST APPROACH IS TO WAIT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION TO SEE
IF A STORM WILL COME BOWLING THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...20/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT EAST. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST AFTER 21/06Z WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MODERATE
NORTHWEST AFTER 21/12Z OVER THE AREA. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND
12.5KFT AND WILL DESCEND A FEW HUNDRED FEET TONIGHT. MARINE LAYER
WAS BELOW .5KFT THIS MORNING...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP...THEN AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA AROUND 21/09-12Z LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED.
KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS/VSBY 002/2SM WILL REDEVELOP BY 21/03Z
AND THEN ASCEND AND BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 21/11Z. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WIND SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE LIKELY AFTER 21/12Z.
KBUR...IT IS VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC...WOFFORD/HALL
AVIATION...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 201826 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1125 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT
OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK...AND CLOSE TO THE SAME TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER IN THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AT MID MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WIND WAS GENERALLY CALM OR
LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST OR SOUTHEAST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AND YUMA AREAS...
AND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING THE EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY...CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY
DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS...WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF THE MORE TYPICAL WIND
FROM THE WEST...THE WIND WILL PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND VERY LIGHT AT
KPHX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAINLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...
YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GUSTY AT TIMES AT THE
RIDGETOPS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
000
FXUS66 KMTR 201803
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
1003 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:55 AM PST FRIDAY...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TODAY`S
COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING WITH
IT RAIN TO THE NORTHBAY AREA. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS
SHOWING COLD CLOUD TOPS...AROUND -35 DEGREES CELSIUS...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SONOMA
COUNTY. KMUX IS INDICATING THAT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR WITH RECENT HOURLY REPORTS OF 0.12 INCHES OF RAIN AT HAWKEYE
AND 0.24 INCHES IN VENADO. THESE ONE HOUR RATES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY HYDRO ISSUES.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 250 J/KG IN THE NORTH BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS UTILIZING THE NAM12 AND NAM BUFR ILLUSTRATE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE IN NAPA AND SONOMA
COUNTIES BEGINNING ROUGHLY 1800 UTC AND LASTING THROUGH 0000 UTC
SATURDAY. WITH THE LINGERING INSTABILITY AND LIGHTNING BEING
REPORTED OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST HAVE UPDATED THE MORNING
FORECAST TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE GOLDEN GATE.
ACCORDING TO THE THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND 1200 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS RIDGE SUGGESTS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:03 AM PST FRIDAY...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND SPREAD RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE JUST
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 19Z-21Z TODAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS TO AROUND 3000 FEET AND
MODERATE RAIN. WINDS TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 22Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...ROUGHLY THE SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 22Z THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN EXPECTED AS WELL AS LOWERING
CIGS AFTER 20Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...GLW SFO BAY
...SCA ALL COASTAL WATERS
...SCA MONTEREY BAY
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS
...WIND ADVISORY 7 AM TO 1 PM NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: SSA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 201756
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
956 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:55 AM PST FRIDAY...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TODAY`S
COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING WITH
IT RAIN TO THE NORTHBAY AREA. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS
SHOWING COLD CLOUD TOPS...AROUND -35 DEGREES CELSIUS...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SONOMA
COUNTY. KMUX IS INDICATING THAT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING FOR ABOUT AN
HOUR WITH RECENT HOURLY REPORTS OF 0.12 INCHES OF RAIN AT HAWKEYE
AND 0.24 INCHES IN VENADO. THESE ONE HOUR RATES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY HYDRO ISSUES.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 250 J/KG IN THE NORTH BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS UTILIZING THE NAM12 AND NAM BUFR ILLUSTRATE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE IN NAPA AND SONOMA
COUNTIES BEGINNING ROUGHLY 1800 UTC AND LASTING THROUGH 0000 UTC
SATURDAY. WITH THE LINGERING INSTABILITY AND LIGHTNING BEING
REPORTED OFF OF THE MENDOCINO COAST HAVE UPDATED THE MORNING
FORECAST TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
THE GOLDEN GATE.
ACCORDING TO THE THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND 1200 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS RIDGE SUGGESTS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PST FRIDAY...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE REGION
TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND SPREAD RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD FALL AROUND 17Z-22Z
TODAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN EXPECTED AS WELL AS LOWERING CIGS 18Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...GLW SFO BAY
...SCA ALL COASTAL WATERS
...SCA MONTEREY BAY
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS
...WIND ADVISORY 7 AM TO 1 PM NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 201736
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT
OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3
DEGREES WARMER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK...AND CLOSE TO THE SAME TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER IN THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AT MID MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WIND WAS GENERALLY CALM OR
LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST...EAST OR SOUTHEAST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AND YUMA AREAS...
AND MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING THE EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THIS FLOW...THE DRY AND WEAK SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY...CLOSE TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PART
OF NOVEMBER. A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY
DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS...WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF THE MORE TYPICAL WIND
FROM THE WEST...THE WIND WILL PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND VERY LIGHT AT
KPHX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAINLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEAK SOUTHERN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL LEAD TO PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...
SOMEWHAT STRONG AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER AND THE AIR WILL BE VERY DRY
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST
LOCATIONS AND MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERY BY TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
000
FXUS66 KLOX 201731
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...COLD FRONT MORE OR LESS ON TRACK FOR A
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY FALL APART ONCE IT ROUNDS PT
CONCEPTION BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LEFT TO GENERATE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES
TONIGHT. A QUARTER INCH OR LESS STILL EXPECTED UP NORTH WITH JUST
TRACE AMOUNTS OR AT MOST A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS DOWN SOUTH.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER-
LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTEN. A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT
WITH MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA. WHILE MODELS SOLUTIONS DO PUSH AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. MAINLY CLOUDS IF ANY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SLOPES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR THE CURRENT TIME WITH MORE
ATTENTION PAID TO THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM...SKY COVER REMAINS
UNCHANGED FOR THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES
HOLD OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE OFFSHORE PATTERN GAINING SOME STRENGTH FOR
MIDWEEK. GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SEEM TO INDICATE SOME
STRENGTHENING IN THE LOWER-LEVEL THERMAL AND FLOW PATTERN FOR
DEVELOPING POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED HIGHER FOR
MIDWEEK...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THANKSGIVING DAY COULD BE A BIT
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT PACKAGE SUGGESTS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND....MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH SCHEDULED TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE THE FAR
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...WHILE GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE. BEST INDICATIONS FOR THE CURRENT TIME ARE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE AN INSIDE-TRACK...KEEPING THE AREA DRY.
SO...THE BEST APPROACH IS TO WAIT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION TO SEE
IF A STORM WILL COME BOWLING THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...20/1200Z.
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL THREATEN KLAX AND KLGB THIS
MORNING...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO BE THREATENED BRIEFLY BY FOG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
KLAX...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS SMALL PATCHES OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL TOY WITH THE AIRFIELD...BRINGING A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE. BETTER
CONFIDENCE AFTER 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IF THE MARINE CLOUDS MANAGE TO PENETRATE INTO THE VALLEYS
TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC...WOFFORD/HALL
AVIATION...HALL/SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 201726 AAA
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE STATE. THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
TONIGHT WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES OVER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WEAKENING THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY HAMMERING FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH BUT FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WILL NOT MOVE
INTO FAR SOCAL. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CROSS SECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE SHOW THE
MARINE LAYER TO BE NOT AS DEEP. CURRENT GFS MODEL SHOWS THE MARINE
LAYER UP TO ABOUT 4-5K FT. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH HAULS OUT OF HERE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER SOCAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE
THROUGH TO THE NORTH...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEXT FRIDAY. A
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN INCREASE
A LITTLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AND THEN
GO ONSHORE FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
201600Z...MARINE LAYER CURRENTLY AOB FL005...WITH SCATTERED
STRATUS/FOG LAYER OVER WATER AND ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST. MARINE LAYER
WILL BE DEEPENING DURING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRATUS LAYER LIFTING
AND PUSHING WELL INLAND AS WEAKENING TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS REGION. MOUNTAINS BELOW
FL070 BECOMING OBSCURED BY 21/0900. TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE EAST OF COACHELLA VALLEY/ANZA BORREGO DESERT BY 21/2100 UTC.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN IT`S WAKE SHOULD LOWER MARINE LAYER TO AOB
FL030.
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WHITLOW
AVIATION...BALFOUR
000
FXUS66 KSTO 201720 CCA
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
920 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS EASILY SEEN ON VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH THE CLOUD FRONTAL BAND NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH MARIN COUNTY
AND OFFSHORE. A RAIN BAND WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT OVER REDDING AND RED BLUFF AND INTO LAKE
COUNTY. WEB CAMS OVER WESTERN SHASTA COUNTY ON HWY 299 STILL SHOW
RAIN WITH TEMPS BETWEEN 33 AND 36 DEG F AT AROUND 2700 FT. RIGHT
SNOW LEVELS WERE FORECAST AT 4000 FT OVER SHASTA COUNTY AND EXPECTED
TO DROP TO 2500 FT TONIGHT. THE SIERRA SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM 3500
TO 5500 FT THIS MORNING AND LOWER TO 3000 TO 4000 FT TONIGHT. WE
WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD AIR FOR ANY POTENTIAL
CHANGES.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS AT THE COAST AND IS
PROGGED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY BETWEEN 1200 PM AND 100 PM
PST. A VORT MAX IS JUST OFFSHORE BEHIND THIS BAND WITH A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY RECEIVES SOME HEATING AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES OUT AND THE
DYNAMIC INSTABILITY WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING. IT ALL DEPENDS ON ANY CLEARING BEHIND THE MAIN CLOUD
BAND. THE WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS FORECAST BUT THE TIMING
LOOKS TO BE GOOD. WE WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. JMC
&&
.AVIATION...
FRONTAL PASSAGE SOON TO BRING LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS AND SHOWERS TO
KRDD-KRBL VCNTY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONS DURING SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CWA TODAY REACHING SAC REGION
18-20Z. S-SW WINDS AT TAF SITES TODAY WILL BE SUSTAINED 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS JUST AHEAD AND DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE. LLWS
LIKELY IN KRDD-KRBL VCNTY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 2000 FT ARE 30-40
KTS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS. VALLEY WINDS DECREASING
BY 00Z AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD. FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. SHOWERS
MOVING IN NEAR 18Z TO THE NORTH THEN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG SIERRA
RANGE...SNOW LEVELS BECOMING 3000-4000 FT BY TONIGHT. STRONG S-SW
WINDS WITH GUSTS 40-50 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-WEST SLOPE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
VALLEY/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR DELTA/NORTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY/SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KHNX 201713
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
913 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
OVER THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT AND EXITS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.MORNING UPDATE...12Z OAKLAND SOUNDING INDICATES STRONG SW 65KT AT
10KFT CAUSING SOME WAVE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE STRONGER WIND AND MIXING LIMITED THE
AMOUNT OF FOG IN THE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR STRONG WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW THE COASTAL PASSES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THE CHOWCHILLA PROFILER INDICATES LOWER
LOW LEVEL WINDS SE 30 MPH AND 10C DEGREE WARMING. MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND TRAJECTORY OVER TOWARDS THE TEHACHAPI MNTS SHOULD DOWN SLOPE
OVER THE SOUTH VALLEY AND PROVIDE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE TOWARDS
BAKERSFIELD AREA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES IN PREVIOUS THINKING FOR
APPROACHING STORM.
&&
.EARLY DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING 130W WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD RAPIDLY MOVING
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NICE COLD POOL IS SHOWN ON INFRARED
IMAGES AND THIS AREA IS TAKING AIM ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BIG
QUESTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE AND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAST MOVING, LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOLUTION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS INTO KERN
COUNTY. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE AND THE CURRENT POP AND
QPF FIELDS LOOK GOOD. NOW FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING THREAT, IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON
WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR NOT. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
CRANKS OUT A RESPECTABLE 0.48" AT YOSEMITE VALLEY HOWEVER THE GFS
PRODUCES A WHOPPING 0.09". SINCE WFO HANFORD IS USING THE "FIRST
STORM OF THE SEASON" CRITERIA (1/2 OF THE NORMAL ACCUMULATION),
SOME AREAS OF YOSEMITE PARK JUST MAY EEK OUT SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW. AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THE RUC13 KEEPS THE AREA
FREE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BASED ON THE
NAM12 SOLUTION, ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BAND INTO KERN COUNTY LOOKS
LIKE A MID EVENING EVENT. WINDS OF COURSE WILL BE STRONG OVER THE
SIERRA CREST AND OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.
FOR EARLY SATURDAY, SOME TYPICAL LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEHACHAPI AND FRAZIER PARK AREA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID DAY. BY SUNDAY RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST AND LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE DAY AFTER TURKEY (OR TOFURKY) DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 20Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT BETWEEN 20Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 02Z SATURDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR CAZ096.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS65 KREV 201707 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
907 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
STRONG COLD FRONT ON COAST WITH WELL DEFINED NCFR. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS EXPECTED WITH MANY AREAS
ALREADY GUSTING 40-60 MPH NEAR AND IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF SIERRA.
FALLON/LOVELOCK AREAS SLOWER TO SEE WINDS DUE TO STRONGER LLVL
INVERSION AS EXPECTED. SOME REPORTED PEAK GUSTS ACROSS AREA
ALREADY 70-80 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SIERRA FRONT. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z NORTH TO 00-04Z
SOUTH AND WILL UPDATE WIND STATEMENTS TO MENTION WORST WINDS AND
TO CLEAN UP WORDING AS WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.
OTHER CONCERN IS PRECIP ALONG FRONT...AND THIS STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR SIERRA. HOWEVER...FOR WRN NV...WILL NEED TO INCREASE
POPS ALONG SIERRA FRONT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF
PRECIP ALONG FRONT OCCURRING NEAR OR JUST BEFORE EVENING RUSH SO
WANT TO EXPRESS HIGHER THAN JUST CHC WORDING ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
HAS BEEN DRY BUT NOW 12Z RUN DOES SHOW SPILLOVER OF RAIN/SNOW INTO
SIERRA FRONT WITH FRONT. STILL...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 5000 FEET. ROADS
THERE COULD BECOME SLUSHY TOO DUE TO INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL IN THE
BAND DESPITE WARM GROUND TEMPS. ALL UPDATES OUT BY 930 AM.
WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND TO REMAIN
THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER PARTS OF ERN CA
AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 70-90 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN
TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN
REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. THE
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY BUSY
TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE PASSES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE RENO-CARSON
AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000 FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED
SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD MAY BE ICY PATCHES
LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY
OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AFTER
SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN
NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD TO A RAPID DROP IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS...ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 201630
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
830 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE STATE. THE MARINE LAYER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
TONIGHT WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES OVER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE DEVELOPS MONDAY AND MONDAY
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY HAMMERING FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN A BIT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH BUT FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT WILL NOT MOVE
INTO FAR SOCAL. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CROSS SECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE
MARINE LAYER TONIGHT...BUT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS HAVE SHOW THE
MARINE LAYER TO BE NOT AS DEEP. CURRENT GFS MODEL SHOWS THE MARINE
LAYER UP TO ABOUT 4-5K FT. DRIZZLE POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH HAULS OUT OF HERE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER SOCAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE
THROUGH TO THE NORTH...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEXT FRIDAY. A
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN INCREASE
A LITTLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCAL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INLAND VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THURSDAY AND THEN
GO ONSHORE FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
201600Z...MARINE LAYER CURRENTLY AOB FL005...WITH SCATTERED
STRATUS/FOG LAYER OVER WATER AND ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST. MARINE LAYER
WILL BE DEEPENING DURING NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRATUS LAYER LIFTING
AND PUSHING WELL INLAND AS WEAKENING TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS REGION. MOUNTAINS BELOW
FL070 BECOMING OBSCURED BY 21/0900. TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE EAST OF COACHELLA VALLEY/ANZA BORREGO DESERT BY 21/2100 UTC.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN IT`S WAKE SHOULD LOWER MARINE LAYER TO AOB
FL030.
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WHITLOW
AVIATION...BALFOUR
000
FXUS66 KSTO 201343 CCA
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
450 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE APPROACHING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NOW POISED OFF THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRINGING WET...WINDY...AND WINTRY WEATHER TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN FRONTAL AND
PRECIPITATION BAND IS STARTING TO SHOW UP NICELY ALONG THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON THE COMPOSITE RADAR THIS MORNING...WITH
CRESCENT CITY JUST STARTING TO REPORT SOME MODERATE RAIN. AMSU
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EMBEDDED BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION JUST OFF THE COAST...WITH RAINFALL RATES RANGING
BETWEEN 0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS MAY BE IN PART DUE TO THE
GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT.
AS FOR US...EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING...SPREADING COLDER AIR...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR LATER
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
MEDFORD AND SACRAMENTO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NEVER EXCEED 11 MBS
TODAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN REDDING AND SACRAMENTO WILL TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DOWN THE VALLEY TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY LIKELY SEEING SOME OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS. 925 AND 850 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT TO 35 TO
50 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
VALLEY AND DELTA AREAS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE
THE OROGRAPHICS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN
SIERRA...WITH LOCAL LIQUID EQUIVALENTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. IN
THE VALLEY...EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75
INCHES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT AS MUCH RAINFALL FOR THE VALLEY AS THE
OCTOBER 13TH STORM...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS FALLEN LEAVES CLOG AREA STORM DRAINS.
THE ONE REAL QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
ARE STILL RELATIVELY THERMAL BELTED THIS MORNING. FOR
INSTANCE...BLUE CANYON MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE A MIDNIGHT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 48 DEGREES...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR EXAMPLES CAN BE
GIVEN FOR THE COASTAL RANGE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RANGE BETWEEN 5000 FEET AND 6000
FEET TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN
PLACE...AS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND MAIN HIGHWAYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IMPACTED WITH TREACHEROUS WINTRY WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION RELATIVELY QUICKLY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING AND SOMEWHAT WARMER SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
VALLEY NORTHWARD TO SEE A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION...AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...PAC FNTL SYS AND ASSOCD UPR TROF WL MOV THRU INTR NORCAL
NXT 24 HRS. SWLY FLOW ALF VRG TO NWLY ARND 06Z SAT. FOR CNTRL
VLY...AREAS MVFR/IFR CONDS N OF KSMF THRU 17Z BCMG WDSPRD OVR ENTR
VLY AFT 17Z THRU ARND 01Z SAT THEN IMPVG AFT. AREAS OF SLY SFC WND
GSTS TO 30 KTS OR GTR WITH AREAS OF LLWS FM STG SLY LLJ TO 45-50 KTS
OVR CNTRL VLY THRU 22Z. OVR FTHLS/MTNS...DTRTG CONDS SPRDG FM NW-SE
THIS MRNG WITH WDSPRD IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDS OBSCRG TRRN AFT 17Z
CONT TNGT. STG S-SW SFC WND 25-35 KTS WITH LCL GSTS AOA 50 KTS OVR
HYR MTN TRRN TIL 04Z SAT. SN LVLS ARND 030-035 MSL OVR NRN INTR
MTNS...035-050 MSL OVR CSTL MTNS...AND FM 045-060 OVR SIERNEV TDA
LWRG TO 030-040 TNGT.
PCH
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-WEST SLOPE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
VALLEY/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR DELTA/NORTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY/SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KREV 201331 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND TO REMAIN
THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER PARTS OF ERN CA
AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 70-90 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN
TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN
REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. THE
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY BUSY
TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE PASSES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE RENO-CARSON
AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000 FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED
SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD MAY BE ICY PATCHES
LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY
OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AFTER
SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN
NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD TO A RAPID DROP IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS...ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 201251
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
450 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE APPROACHING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NOW POISED OFF THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRINGING WET...WINDY...AND WINTRY WEATHER TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN FRONTAL AND
PRECIPITATION BAND IS STARTING TO SHOW UP NICELY ALONG THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON THE COMPOSITE RADAR THIS MORNING...WITH
CRESCENT CITY JUST STARTING TO REPORT SOME MODERATE RAIN. AMSU
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EMBEDDED BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION JUST OFF THE COAST...WITH RAINFALL RATES RANGING
BETWEEN 0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS MAY BE IN PART DUE TO THE
GOOD UPPER LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT.
AS FOR US...EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING...SPREADING COLDER AIR...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR LATER
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
MEDFORD AND SACRAMENTO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NEVER EXCEED 11 MBS
TODAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN REDDING AND SACRAMENTO WILL TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DOWN THE VALLEY TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY LIKELY SEEING SOME OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS. 925 AND 850 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT TO 35 TO
50 KNOTS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
VALLEY AND DELTA AREAS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE
THE OROGRAPHICS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN
SIERRA...WITH LOCAL LIQUID EQUIVALENTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. IN
THE VALLEY...EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75
INCHES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT AS MUCH RAINFALL FOR THE VALLEY AS THE
OCTOBER 13TH STORM...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING...AS FALLEN LEAVES CLOG AREA STORM DRAINS.
THE ONE REAL QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH HOW QUICKLY
THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
ARE STILL RELATIVELY THERMAL BELTED THIS MORNING. FOR
INSTANCE...BLUE CANYON MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE A MIDNIGHT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 48 DEGREES...WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR EXAMPLES CAN BE
GIVEN FOR THE COASTAL RANGE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RANGE BETWEEN 5000 FEET AND 6000
FEET TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN
PLACE...AS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND MAIN HIGHWAYS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IMPACTED WITH TREACHEROUS WINTRY WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION RELATIVELY QUICKLY...WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST
MOVING AND SOMEWHAT WARMER SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH...WITH AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
VALLEY NORTHWARD TO SEE A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION...AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG. ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...PAC FNTL SYS AND ASSOCD UPR TROF WL MOV THRU INTR NORCAL
NXT 24 HRS. SWLY FLOW ALF VRG TO NWLY ARND 06Z SAT. FOR CNTRL
VLY...AREAS MVFR/IFR CONDS N OF KSMF THRU 17Z BCMG WDSPRD OVR ENTR
VLY AFT 17Z THRU ARND 01Z SAT THEN IMPVG AFT. AREAS OF SLY SFC WND
GSTS TO 30 KTS WITH AREAS OF LLWS FM STG SLY LLJ TO 45-50 KTS OVR
CNTRL VLY THRU 22Z. OVR FTHLS/MTNS...DTRTG CONDS SPRDG FM NW-SE THIS
MRNG WITH WDSPRD IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDS OBSCRG TRRN AFT 17Z CONT
TNGT. STG S-SW SFC WND 25-35 KTS WITH LCL GSTS AOA 50 KTS OVR HYR
MTN TRRN TIL 04Z SAT. SN LVLS ARND 030-035 MSL OVR NRN INTR
MTNS...035-050 MSL OVR CSTL MTNS...AND FM 045-060 OVR SIERNEV TDA
LWRG TO 030-040 TNGT.
PCH
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-WEST SLOPE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
VALLEY/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR DELTA/NORTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY/SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPSR 201250 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
550 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF US.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT LEAST...DRY WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR OUR CWA...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE APPEAR ON
THE HORIZON EITHER AS THICKNESS VALUES RANGE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40M
OVER THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...LEADING TO GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS. LATEST H5 PLOT DATA SHOWED 30-60M HEIGHT RISES...AND THE
AIRMASS OVER ARIZONA IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WERE MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. PROGS AGREE THAT ON SATURDAY A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE BUT LOWERING THICKNESSES ABOUT 30M...AND LEADING A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO LOWER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH A HIGH OF 75 PROGGED FOR PHOENIX OVER THE
WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THEY SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE...WITH SKIES TO BE
BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THICKNESSES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS TO MOVE THRU FROM TIME TO TIME FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN KEEP A RATHER STRONG UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT THEY BOTH
CUT OFF A WEAK LOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS
WEAK SPLIT IN THE FLOW SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY CONSEQUENTIAL EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER AS THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE DRY. AS THE
AIRMASS WARMS AND HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES SLOWLY RISE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
DESERTS...TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
LIGHT WINDS...FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
CIRRUS...INCREASING AFTER 18Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY BUT WILL LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE SYSTEM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL LEAD TO PREVAILING NORTH AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY...GETTING STRONG AT TIMES AT
THE RIDGETOPS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUM
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MODEST OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. NO THICK CLOUDINESS ANTICIPATED...JUST PASSING CIRRUS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
000
FXUS65 KREV 201244
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND LIKELY
TO REMAIN THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER
PARTS OF ERN CA AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL
GUSTS HAVE REACHED 70-80 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK
GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN
NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES
BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
THE PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY
BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TRAVEL OVER
THE PASSES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
FOR THE RENO-CARSON AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000
FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD
MAY BE ICY PATCHES LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT
ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IN
THESE AREAS AFTER SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD
TO A RAPID DROP IN WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING
BELOW 6000 FEET.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS AND MORE ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 201237
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
435 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST FRIDAY...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TODAY`S
SYSTEM.
SATL IMAGERY IS INDC A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AMSU IMAGERY IS INDC TPW JUST UNDER ONE INCH. AMSU
RAINRATES ARE UP TO .3 INCHES PER HOUR ALONG THE FRONT. GOES HIGH
DENSITY WINDS ARE INDC A 150 KT JET DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROF WHICH IS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE TROF...WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE DISTRICT WINDS WILL PICK UP...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS. THE NAM12 IS INDC 40-50
KT WINDS AT 925 MB WITH THE LATEST GFS SLIGHTLY LESS. EVEN THOUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WINDS WILL BE SHORT HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS FROM 7 AM THROUGH 1 PM.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE. UP TO 0.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE BAY AREA WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL DROPS TO AROUND 0.1 INCHES
IN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ANY THUNDER BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS WILL END BY
MORNING.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
DISTRICT WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE HAVE MENTIONED A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS...NORTH OF
MONTEREY FOR THIS PERIOD.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW...THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:35 AM PST FRIDAY...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE REGION
TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND SPREAD RAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD FALL AROUND 17Z-22Z
TODAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CIGS AROUND 3000 FEET.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN EXPECTED AS WELL AS LOWERING CIGS 18Z.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...GLW UNTIL 9 AM PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
...GLW UNTIL 9 AM PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
...GLW UNTIL NOON PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
...GLW STARTING 7 AM SFO BAY
...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-60 NM
...SCA MONTEREY BAY
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS
...WIND ADVISORY 7 AM TO 1 PM NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 201235
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
435 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WILL PUSH A COOLER...MORE MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA TO CONCLUDE THE WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
FOR NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINANT
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING ONSHORE THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ITS
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO BEAR WATCHING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING AND ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HOWEVER WITH MODELS OVERDOING THE THE
CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WERE
TRENDED ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS VALUES.
THE BULK OF THE TROUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH ASHORE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTIVE PATTERN IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGHS
COLD FRONT. GOOD JET DYNAMIC WILL DEVELOP AROUND 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 500 MB JET STREAK STREAMS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION REMAIN ON THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET...MAKING IT MORE FAVORABLE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...850 MIXING RATIOS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT INCREASE IN
EXCESS OF 6 G/KG ON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AREAS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION SHOULD SEE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 HOURS OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SPLIT
APART AT POINT CONCEPTION AND THE SYSTEM BECOME VERY
DISORGANIZED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
OUTRUNNING THE LOWER-LEVEL FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...LOWER POPS REMAIN FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
DOES EXIST AT 850 MB THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AMPLE MIXING
RATIOS AND A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN VERY
UNIMPRESSIVE. WHILE SOME MOISTURE IS PRESENT...LITTLE OMEGA IS
PRESENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OF A SHOWERY NATURE.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER-
LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE FLOW PATTEN. A DIRTY RIDGE PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT
WITH MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA. WHILE MODELS SOLUTIONS DO PUSH AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. MAINLY CLOUDS IF ANY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND SLOPES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR THE CURRENT TIME WITH MORE
ATTENTION PAID TO THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM...SKY COVER REMAINS
UNCHANGED FOR THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS.
.LONG TERM...OFFSHORE FLOW BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES
HOLD OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE OFFSHORE PATTERN GAINING SOME STRENGTH FOR
MIDWEEK. GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL SEEM TO INDICATE SOME
STRENGTHENING IN THE LOWER-LEVEL THERMAL AND FLOW PATTERN FOR
DEVELOPING POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED HIGHER FOR
MIDWEEK...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THANKSGIVING DAY COULD BE A BIT
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT PACKAGE SUGGESTS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND....MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH SCHEDULED TO MOVE
OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE THE FAR
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...WHILE GFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE
LEAST PROGRESSIVE. BEST INDICATIONS FOR THE CURRENT TIME ARE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE AN INSIDE-TRACK...KEEPING THE AREA DRY.
SO...THE BEST APPROACH IS TO WAIT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION TO SEE
IF A STORM WILL COME BOWLING THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...20/1200Z.
PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...WILL THREATEN KLAX AND KLGB THIS
MORNING...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL ALSO BE THREATENED BRIEFLY BY FOG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
KLAX...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS SMALL PATCHES OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL TOY WITH THE AIRFIELD...BRINGING A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE. BETTER
CONFIDENCE AFTER 17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IF THE MARINE CLOUDS MANAGE TO PENETRATE INTO THE VALLEYS
TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...HALL/SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 201219
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
418 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST FRIDAY...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TODAY`S
SYSTEM.
SATL IMAGERY IS INDC A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AMSU IMAGERY IS INDC TPW JUST UNDER ONE INCH. AMSU
RAINRATES ARE UP TO .3 INCHES PER HOUR ALONG THE FRONT. GOES HIGH
DENSITY WINDS ARE INDC A 150 KT JET DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROF WHICH IS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY THE TROF...WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE DISTRICT WINDS WILL PICK UP...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS. THE NAM12 IS INDC 40-50
KT WINDS AT 925 MB WITH THE LATEST GFS SLIGHTLY LESS. EVEN THOUGH THE
DURATION OF THE WINDS WILL BE SHORT HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS FROM 7 AM THROUGH 1 PM.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE WITH UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE. UP TO 0.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE BAY AREA WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL DROPS TO AROUND 0.1 INCHES
IN THE SALINAS VALLEY.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ANY THUNDER BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. SHOWERS WILL END BY
MORNING.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE DISTRICT ON SATURDAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
DISTRICT WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE HAVE MENTIONED A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS...NORTH OF
MONTEREY FOR THIS PERIOD.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW...THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:55 PM PST THURSDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND SPREAD RAIN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD FALL IN
THE 17Z-22Z TIME-FRAME FRIDAY. LATER MODEL RUNS TODAY WILL EITHER
BUILD OR TAKE AWAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON FRONTAL TIMING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:15 AM PST THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECASTS FROM THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT LOOK GREAT. THE MAIN ISSUE HERE RECENTLY HAS BEEN
HOW TO HANDLE BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
ENP WAVE MODEL FORECAST TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LESS SWELL WITH EACH
PASSING RUN. MAXIMUM SWELL HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY`S RUN WAS 5.1 METERS
BUT TODAY`S RUN INDICATES 4.7 METERS. DECLINING MODEL FORECAST SWELL
HEIGHTS THE CLOSER WE GET TO A POTENTIAL HIGH SURF EVENT IS ACTUALLY
COMMON. AS IT STANDS NOW FORECASTER AGREEMENT WITHIN THE OFFICE IS TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDY...GLW UNTIL 9 AM PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
...GLW UNTIL 9 AM PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
...GLW UNTIL NOON PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
...GLW STARTING 7 AM SFO BAY
...SCA PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-60 NM
...SCA MONTEREY BAY
...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS
...WIND ADVISORY 7 AM TO 1 PM NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KEKA 201215
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
415 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW...EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIR AND ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR.
GUSTS TO 40 TO 60 MPH ALREADY REPORTED IN HUMBOLDT/DEL NORTE
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE WEAKENING. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS JET MAX ROTATING AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH AROUND
38N/130W AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE COAST. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MDT PRECIP THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ONSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COOLING MID LEVELS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL ALONG THE
REDWOOD COAST. NSSL BRIGHT BAND ANALYSIS INDICATES SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 5500 FT ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 2500 FT LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
MOISTURE REMAINS AHEAD OF THE COLDEST AIR...EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 3500 FT ACROSS EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTY BY THIS EVENING WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FT IN DEL
NORTE/HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A BRIEF LULL EARLY SAT AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP CHCS INCREASE LATE
SAT AS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND STABILIZE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DIRTY
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEBULOUS
SHORT-WAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COAST REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE GFS
AND ECWMF MODELS WERE OUT OF SYNC ON A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FOR NOW WE HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
BC/DJB
&&
.MARINE...MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE EXTENT OF THE WINDS THIS
MORNING...LEAVING CONFINED WINDOWS OF GALE CONDITIONS. WITH THE S
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE WINDY PLACE WILL BE AROUND CAPE
MENDOCINO AND JUST ON THE LEE SIDE. THIS HAS BEEN SHOWING WELL WITH
BUOY 22...WHERE AS OF 3 AM SUS WINDS WERE 34 GUSTING TO 42. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE PRES GRAD ABOUT IT WILL ALLOW FOR A SLACKING OF
THE WINDS. THIS SHOULD BE SEEN AT THE BUOYS AROUND SUNRISE. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PULSE OF SUB GALE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE
PULLING BACK TO MODERATE WINDS. SEAS WILL LAG IN DECAY BEHIND THE
WINDS...BUT WILL BE OUT OF HAZ SEAS WARNING LEVEL BY AFTERNOON. MANY
OF THE WARNINGS OUT FOR THE WATERS WERE SCALED BACK DUE AS A RESULT
OF WINDS NOT BEING AS WIDE SPREAD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY AND WEAK
HIGH PRES PUSHES IT TO THE S. AFTER A POST FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALLOWING
FOR EASING WINDS. SWELL WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BFG
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN HAS BEGUN AT CEC THIS MORNING AND WILL BE INTO ACV
SHORTLY. RAIN WILL PLAGUE THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...TURNING TO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE DEVELOPED YET...THIS WILL WARRANT WATCHING. THAT
SAID...THE LOWERING CEILINGS WILL KEEP THE DAY IFR FOR THE COASTAL
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG WITH MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850MB FORECAST WINDS ARE SHOWING AS HIGH AS
60 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE SFC WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE COLUMN IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. UKI WILL ALSO BE IFR FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE NEXT 24 HRS
BUT WILL BREAK OUT BY FRI NGT AS A WEAKENING FRONT SLIPS THROUGH AND
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND CEILINGS LIFT. SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NO SIG INC IN WINDS IS
EXPECTED. BFG
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT PST
TONIGHT FOR CAZ004.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PST
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-470.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ470.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ455-475.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ455-
475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KSGX 201016
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
215 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY.
PATCHY MORNING DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR AT THE COAST BUT OTHERWISE FAIR
AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE RAPID DEEPENING OF
THE MARINE LAYER WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
EXPECT A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ON THE
COAST THIS AM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL
DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WILL INCREASE BUT WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG. THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD GENERATE PATCHY DRIZZLE
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD SUNDAY AND BRING
FAIR DRY WEATHER. AN UPPER HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEXT WEEK WHILE SOME OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND DRY INLAND. THE HIGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THANKSGIVING.
&&
.AVIATION...
200900Z...PATCHY STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE COAST. THE
COASTAL AIRPORTS MAY HAVE PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS THE
STRATUS MOVES INLAND...THEN CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD CLEAR BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.
STRATUS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING WITH BASES BETWEEN 1200 FT MSL. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH STRATUS
REACHING THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNRISE.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...SCT CIRRUS AOA FL200 AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES.
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MACKECHNIE
AVIATION...SS
000
FXUS66 KHNX 201005
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
205 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY MORNING
FOG FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM CROSSING 130W WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD RAPIDLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NICE COLD POOL IS SHOWN ON INFRARED IMAGES
AND THIS AREA IS TAKING AIM ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BIG
QUESTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE AND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAST MOVING, LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOLUTION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS INTO KERN
COUNTY. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE AND THE CURRENT POP AND
QPF FIELDS LOOK GOOD. NOW FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING THREAT, IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON
WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR NOT. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
CRANKS OUT A RESPECTABLE 0.48" AT YOSEMITE VALLEY HOWEVER THE GFS
PRODUCES A WHOPPING 0.09". SINCE WFO HANFORD IS USING THE "FIRST
STORM OF THE SEASON" CRITERIA (1/2 OF THE NORMAL ACCUMULATION),
SOME AREAS OF YOSEMITE PARK JUST MAY EEK OUT SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW. AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THE RUC13 KEEPS THE AREA
FREE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BASED ON THE
NAM12 SOLUTION, ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BAND INTO KERN COUNTY LOOKS
LIKE A MID EVENING EVENT. WINDS OF COURSE WILL BE STRONG OVER THE
SIERRA CREST AND OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.
FOR EARLY SATURDAY, SOME TYPICAL LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEHACHAPI AND FRAZIER PARK AREA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID DAY. BY SUNDAY RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST AND LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE DAY AFTER TURKEY (OR TOFURKY) DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 20Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT BETWEEN 20Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 02Z SATURDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR CAZ096.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KHNX 201003
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
203 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAKE WAY FOR A
TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM CROSSING 130W WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD RAPIDLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NICE COLD POOL IS SHOWN ON INFRARED IMAGES
AND THIS AREA IS TAKING AIM ON NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BIG
QUESTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT WILL BE AND JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAST MOVING, LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOLUTION WITH THE FRONTAL BAND DISSIPATING AS IT HEADS INTO KERN
COUNTY. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE AND THE CURRENT POP AND
QPF FIELDS LOOK GOOD. NOW FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING THREAT, IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON
WILL GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR NOT. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
CRANKS OUT A RESPECTABLE 0.48" AT YOSEMITE VALLEY HOWEVER THE GFS
PRODUCES A WHOPPING 0.09". SINCE WFO HANFORD IS USING THE "FIRST
STORM OF THE SEASON" CRITERIA (1/2 OF THE NORMAL ACCUMULATION),
SOME AREAS OF YOSEMITE PARK JUST MAY EEK OUT SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW. AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THE RUC13 KEEPS THE AREA
FREE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BASED ON THE
NAM12 SOLUTION, ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BAND INTO KERN COUNTY LOOKS
LIKE A MID EVENING EVENT. WINDS OF COURSE WILL BE STRONG OVER THE
SIERRA CREST AND OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SCENARIO FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.
FOR EARLY SATURDAY, SOME TYPICAL LINGERING UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEHACHAPI AND FRAZIER PARK AREA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MID DAY. BY SUNDAY RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST AND LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THE DAY AFTER TURKEY (OR TOFURKY) DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR WILL PERSIST OVER
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY UNTIL 20Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICT BETWEEN 20Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 02Z SATURDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST
SATURDAY FOR CAZ096.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS65 KPSR 200947
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF US.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT LEAST...DRY WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN THE
FORCAST FOR OUR CWA...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE APPEAR ON
THE HORIZON EITHER AS THICKNESS VALUES RANGE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40M
OVER THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...LEADING TO GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS. LATEST H5 PLOT DATA SHOWED 30-60M HEIGHT RISES...AND THE
AIRMASS OVER ARIZONA IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WERE MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. PROGS AGREE THAT ON SATURDAY A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE BUT LOWERING THICKNESSES ABOUT 30M...AND LEADING A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO LOWER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH A HIGH OF 75 PROGGED FOR PHOENIX OVER THE
WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THEY SHOULD BE ON THE THIN SIDE...WITH SKIES TO BE
BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THICKNESSES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS TO MOVE THRU FROM TIME TO TIME FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN KEEP A RATHER STRONG UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT THEY BOTH
CUT OFF A WEAK LOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. THIS
WEAK SPLIT IN THE FLOW SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY CONSEQUENTIAL EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER AS THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE DRY. AS THE
AIRMASS WARMS AND HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES SLOWLY RISE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE WARMEST
DESERTS...TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z SAT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE NEXT TROUGH FOR SAT AND
THE THREAT FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS HAS DECREASED. FORECAST REMAINS
RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME MOISTURE IN THE SUBTROPICS WILL INCREASE ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN AZ BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
000
FXUS66 KLOX 200607 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1007 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE CHANCES
DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF SANTA BARBARA OVERNIGHT. THE STORM
WILL EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...CREATING A WARMING TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY BROUGHT
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTY
WINDS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RESULTING
IN STRONG ONSHORE TRENDS IN THE GRADIENTS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL DROP
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES AT MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. BOTH THE
NAM12 AND GFS MODELS BRING A WEAKENING FRONT DOWN THE CENTRAL COAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING SLO COUNTY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED...HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE COASTAL HILLS OF SLO COUNTY...DROPPING TO A TRACE OR A FEW
HUNDREDTHS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE IN SAT FOR A COOL AND BREEZY
DAY MOST AREAS. MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEST-EAST SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
COAST, MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND SOME COAST AND VALLEY AREAS.
GRADIENTS WILL TREND OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS STARTS TO WARM
UP UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING
TREND IN ALL AREAS, BUT WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND SRN SBA COUNTY.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...HIGH AND DRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL WARM UP EACH DAY
THROUGH WED, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS, THEN LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS DROP A DEGREE OR TWO ON
THANKSGIVING. SURFACE GRADIENTS PEAK TUE AND WED, BUT UPPER SUPPORT
IS NEGLIGIBLE SO WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION...20/0607Z.
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST
THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE A CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT AFTER 23Z
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN.
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AREAS OF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOS ANGELES COASTAL
TERMINALS...THEN LIFTING TO IFR TO MVFR AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING AFTER 00Z FOR COASTAL AND
VALLEY TERMINALS.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z. IF LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME PREDOMINANTLY IFR AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
ARRIVING BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KREV 200551 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
951 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...
RDG LVL WINDS BEGINNING TO INCRS THIS EVE AS PAC TROF AND ASSOCD
INCRG WINDS ALF RAPIDLY APPROACHED THE WEST COAST. WINDS HAVE NOT
RESPONDED YET AT MOST VLY LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO SO
OVRNGT AS SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LLWS FOR SIERRA
TAF SITES OVRNGT UNTIL SFC WINDS RESPOND. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z MODEL
DATA SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE WITH PD OF STRONG WINDS AHD OF FRONT FRI
AND NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE/VERTICAL LIFT ALNG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAINLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NWD. 500MB RH FIELDS DRY OUT
QUICKLY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH FRONT BECOMING
SHALLOW ONCE PASSAGE OCCURS 20Z FRI-00Z SAT. THUS HEAVY PCPN EAST
OF CREST IS GOING TO BE SHORTLIVED WITH ONLY BRIEF SPILLOVER INTO
WRN NV. LATEST MODEL QPF SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY MORE THAN A FOOT WL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE SIERRA
CREST ARND TAHOE AND NWD INTO WRN LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES WHILE AMTS
TAPER QUICKLY SWD/EWD AND DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION. WHILE LIKELY
POPS ARE BEING FCST FOR THE RENO/CARSON CITY AREA...QPF WL BE LGT
AND LIMITED TO A FEW HRS ARND SUNSET FRI. AREAS NORTH OF GERLACH
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASUREABLE AMTS OF QPF AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LONGER PD OF DEEP MOIST ASCENT AHD OF PV LOBE
SWINGING THRU NRN CA ACRS NWRN NV.
THE PRIMARY THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE A NARROW WINDOW (2-4 HOURS)
WHERE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WL COMBINE TO PRODUCE NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDS FM WRN LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES SWD INTO THE TAHOE
BASIN. WINDS DROP OFF WITHIN A COUPLE OF HRS OF FROPA ALTHOUGH
BRISK CONDS WL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE EVENING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO WINDS FRI NGT TO REDUCE SPEEDS AND GUSTS BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. THE EXCEPTION WAS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE
WINDS WL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF WIND AND
BLOWING DUST PRODUCTS LOOK REASONABLE WHILE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING MAY GO A BIT TOO LONG BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM SOLN
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE FASTER GFS SOLN WL VERIFY
BASED ON EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND 21Z SREF ENSEMBLES.
HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. RIDGE TOP WINDS ALONG
THE SIERRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SPURRING THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS...REMAINING AT HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA...WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY
SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE FRONT. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SNOWY CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED STILL WARRANTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
CALIFORNIA...IN THE NORTHEASTERN SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP
TO MOST VALLEY SURFACES IN NEVADA BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION SEEN WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS IT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS AND A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. -LABELLE-
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE WEAKENING
TREND OF SHORT WAVE PUSHING OUT OF SRN OREGON AND THROUGH THE CWA
EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL HOLD ON TO SOME QPF ACROSS NRN CWA...BUT
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED. AND MOST MODELS DO NOT BRING QPF AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE TAHOE BASIN NOW. THUS WILL TRIM POPS BACK A BIT MORE IN
THE TAHOE AREA BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY AND RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE RGN
MONDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL TRYING TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT IT DOES NOT
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THUS WILL DISREGARD THIS
FOR NOW AND KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WILL SHOW SOME WARMING BY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SFC WINDS BECOME A BIT
MORE SE AS OPPOSED TO EASTERLY ALLOWING BETTER MIXING.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH
OPERATIONAL ECMWF NOW FASTER THAN GFS IN PUSHING NEXT TROF ON SHORE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO
TIMING. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE FAR NW CWA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTN AND INCREASE THIS A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO AS
HIGH AS ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT. GIVEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED
PREVIOUS LONG WAVE TROFS...HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING
SEVEN DAYS OUT. MLF
AVIATION...
APPROACH OF STRONG FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASCD
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID/UPPER WINDS TONIGHT AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY FRIDAY MRNG. SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY FRIDAY MRNG WITH AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA PICKING UP THE
STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. SFC WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 20/18 UTC WITH
KRNO POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 65 KTS AFTER 20/22 UTC. THESE
GUSTS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VSBYS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA IN
BLOWING DUST WITH KLOL POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AFTER 20/21 UTC.
RIDGE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA WILL BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AND REACH
AS HIGH AS 110 KTS AFTER 20/15 UTC. WIND DIRECTION CHANGE FROM SFC
TO MID LVLS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 30 TO 45 DEGREES SO DO NOT FORESEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL LLWS. SPEED SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE 20/14 UTC...BUT AFTER THAT SPEED SHEAR
WILL DECREASE AS SFC WINDS INCREASE.
SNOW/RAIN MIX SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AFTER 20/17 UTC WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING QUICKLY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT
KTVL/KTRK TO IFR AFTER 20/18 UTC. EAST OF THE SIERRA CIGS/VSBYS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE SIERRA AFTER 20/22 UTC WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS. MLF
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ071-
072.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 200539
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
939 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAKE WAY FOR A
TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TROF APPROACHING 130W THIS EVE...WILL CONT TO PUSH
EAST...REACHING CENTRAL CA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE. WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SHOW THE DIGGING PROCESS IS OVER. FRONT STILL BEGINS TO WASH
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL CA FRI NITE...BUT WILL PROBABLY STILL GET SOME
DECENT SNOW IN THE SIERRA AROUND YOSEMITE...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS
FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...NEW GFS HINTS AT A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE TROF LATE FRI...AND THIS COULD INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES JUST
A BIT. MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO POP FIELDS THIS EVE. RATHER COLD
AIRMASS IS BEHIND THE FRONT AS SEEN IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH
COLD POOL PROBABLY DIRECTED AT FAR NORTH CA ALONG 40N.
DRIER AND STABLE AIR ARRIVES EARLY SAT WITH PRECIP MOSTLY OVER. A
DRY W-NW FLOW ALOFT THEN PREVAILS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. LATEST 00Z GFS KEEPS THANKSGIVING DAY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL CA
WHILE THIS MORNINGS 12Z EURO BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH A
FAIRLY SHARP SHORTWAVE. AT THIS TIME...TRAVELERS WILL HAVE TO
WATCH LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF HEADING NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WITH LOCAL LIFR WILL DEVELOP IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AFTER 08Z FRIDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL 17Z FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF IFR IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SAT.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
CAZ096.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BINGHAM
AVN/FW...JEB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSTO 200535
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARING THE WEST COAST. NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED JUST
YET...RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE LEADING PRECIPITATION BANDS SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE COAST. A FEW SPOTTY REPORTS OF PATCHY BR THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT.
MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE THE STRONG WINTER
STORM. LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH THE ENTIRETY OF
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SEEING PRECIPITATION BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH RELATIVELY
QUICKLY...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE INTENSITY PRECIPITATION
BEFORE TURNING MORE SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL TOTALS...STILL EXPECTING ROUGHLY 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN END OF THE VALLEY AND 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT IN
THE 4000 TO 5500 FT RANGE (WITH LOCALLY LOWER LEVELS IN FAVORED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS) BUT WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FT FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THOSE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION...SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4000 AND
7000 FT WITH A FOOT OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
ALSO OF CONCERN WITH THIS STORM WILL BE WIND. WHILE THE SURFACE
GRADIENT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE QUITE STRONG AND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWNWARD CREATING GUSTY
CONDITIONS. WINDS AT 700MB COULD BE BLOWING 50-65KT...HINTING AT THE
EXTREMELY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER RIDGETOPS. THE COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD CREATE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS LOWERING VISIBILITIES. HAVE WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND WIND ADVISORIES OUT ADDRESSING THOSE ITEMS...BUT THE MAIN POINT
IS THAT TRAVELING WILL BE TREACHEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
THAT WINDS COULD DOWN SMALL BRANCHES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
TURNING PRECIPITATION MORE SHOWERY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY WE CLEAR OUT THAT NIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING. DANG
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. SOME NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE
VALLEY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...AM NOT SURE IF THESE NORTH WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE REGION OR IF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE STORM MOVES INLAND.
LLWS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TOWARDS KRDD AND KRBL AS AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING STORM. INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE 10-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KTS. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
IN THE VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 13-15Z AND BEGIN TO LESSEN 22-00Z.
CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER 15Z WITH LOCAL IFR DURING HEAVY
SHOWERS. FOR HIGHER TERRAIN...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS 40-55 KTS
EXPECTED. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-WEST SLOPE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY.
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
VALLEY/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR DELTA/NORTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY/SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 200524
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE CHANCES
DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF SANTA BARBARA OVERNIGHT. THE STORM
WILL EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...CREATING A WARMING TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY BROUGHT
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTY
WINDS BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RESULTING
IN STRONG ONSHORE TRENDS IN THE GRADIENTS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL DROP
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES AT MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. BOTH THE
NAM12 AND GFS MODELS BRING A WEAKENING FRONT DOWN THE CENTRAL COAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING SLO COUNTY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. AS FAR AS QPF IS CONCERNED...HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE COASTAL HILLS OF SLO COUNTY...DROPPING TO A TRACE OR A FEW
HUNDREDTHS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE IN SAT FOR A COOL AND BREEZY
DAY MOST AREAS. MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEST-EAST SURFACE
GRADIENTS WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
COAST, MOUNTAINS, ANTELOPE VALLEY, AND SOME COAST AND VALLEY AREAS.
GRADIENTS WILL TREND OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS THE AIRMASS STARTS TO WARM
UP UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING
TREND IN ALL AREAS, BUT WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND SRN SBA COUNTY.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...HIGH AND DRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL WARM UP EACH DAY
THROUGH WED, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS, THEN LEVEL OFF OR PERHAPS DROP A DEGREE OR TWO ON
THANKSGIVING. SURFACE GRADIENTS PEAK TUE AND WED, BUT UPPER SUPPORT
IS NEGLIGIBLE SO WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION...20/0500Z.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
RETURN TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.
WITH ONSHORE TRENDS EXPECTED...LOOK FOR MARINE LAYER DEPTH TO
INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
KLAX...WILL BE TRIMMING BACK A BIT ON IDEA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
FOR KLAX IN UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE. AT THIS POINT...ONLY SMALL CHANCE
OF A CEILING TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS
ON FRIDAY EVENING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 200517
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AT THE COAST
TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
CAUSE A RAPID DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTROL THE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY AND INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
IT IS REALLY TOUGH TO FIND A CLOUD THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS ONE
PATCH OF FOG JUST OFF ROSARITO. WE EXPECT A FEW PATCHES TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND TOUCH THE COAST IN SPOTS. WHERE IT DOES THE FOG WILL
BE RATHER DENSE. FRIDAY WE TRANSITION FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND THE
MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL INCREASE BUT WILL NOT BE REALLY STRONG.
THE MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT COULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THAT BRIEF EPISODE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY REBUILD SUNDAY TO GET US BACK TO OUR REGULARLY
SCHEDULED PROGRAM OF FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE UPPER HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK WHILE SOME OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
CERTAINLY VERY DRY INLAND. THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON
THANKSGIVING AS THE MODELS SHOW SOME TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
COULD IMPACT OUR REGION WITH RAIN BEYOND THE HOLIDAY. BUT WE HAVE
SEEN ENOUGH OF THESE THINGS THIS FALL TO NOT TRUST THAT IDEA.
&&
.AVIATION...
200500Z...PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING
WITH BASES AROUND 1000 FT MSL AND LOCAL VSBY 4-6SM. OTHERWISE VFR
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES ABOVE
FL250. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COAST FRIDAY
EVENING WITH BASES AROUND 1200 FT MSL...SPREADING INLAND AND
DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SCV
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION...SCV
000
FXUS66 KMTR 200510
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
910 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:10 PM PST THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE DISTRICT TO WARM UP BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE DISTRICT WAS PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ALONG 135W. THIS HAS SLOWED
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH FOR NOW SO WE WILL NOT SEE ANY
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE
COLDEST LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT BUT
THE INCOMING CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP THE THERMOMETER ABOVE FREEZING.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTH BAY BY MIDMORNING FRIDAY SPREADING
INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AFTER NOON AND THE MONTEREY BAY AREA EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS FORECAST 925 MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 40 KT OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS AND PARTS OF
THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING SO MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS FOR FRIDAY. THIS STORM REACHES ITS
STRONGEST INTENSITY OFFSHORE AND STARTS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THEREFORE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WINDS DROP OFF FURTHER SOUTH. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY HILLS...
ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...AND ABOUT ONE-
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH RAIN TURNING TO SHOWERS AND WINDS
SWITCHING TO WEST AND DECREASING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE DISTRICT BUT WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTH BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE AGREEING MORE ON BUILDING A RIDGE OVER
THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:55 PM PST THURSDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND SPREAD RAIN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD FALL IN
THE 17Z-22Z TIME-FRAME FRIDAY. LATER MODEL RUNS TODAY WILL EITHER
BUILD OR TAKE AWAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON FRONTAL TIMING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:15 AM PST THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECASTS FROM THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT LOOK GREAT. THE MAIN ISSUE HERE RECENTLY HAS BEEN
HOW TO HANDLE BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
ENP WAVE MODEL FORECAST TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LESS SWELL WITH EACH
PASSING RUN. MAXIMUM SWELL HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY`S RUN WAS 5.1 METERS
BUT TODAY`S RUN INDICATES 4.7 METERS. DECLINING MODEL FORECAST SWELL
HEIGHTS THE CLOSER WE GET TO A POTENTIAL HIGH SURF EVENT IS ACTUALLY
COMMON. AS IT STANDS NOW FORECASTER AGREEMENT WITHIN THE OFFICE IS TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR ROUGH SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 200438
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO SYNOPSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF US.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SIX DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ/ AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK DRY COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...OVER UTAH.
OTHERWISE...NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY
FORECASTS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLY.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTED LITTLE OR NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH POSITIVE TILT RIDGE ADVANCING TO EASTERN AZ BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES...HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING
EASTWARD...AND MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AND FROM THE UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INVADE OUR AREA. TIMING OF THIS INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LOOKS GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN IMPERIAL COUNTY...AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. DRY TROUGH AND WEAKENING FRONTAL
BAND WILL ALSO MEAN SOME COOLING...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
BRING PHOENIX TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF KEEP A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO
NEXT WEEK...AND HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM MONDAY INTO WED.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY AND HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S...AT LEAST...AS WE APPROACH THANKSGIVING DAY. AFTER THURSDAY
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP...AND STILL NOT SURE HOW MUCH
ENERGY WILL SPLIT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z SAT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE NEXT TROUGH FOR SAT AND
THE THREAT FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS HAS DECREASED. FORECAST REMAINS
RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME MOISTURE IN THE SUBTROPICS WILL INCREASE ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN AZ BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/SIPPLE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
000
FXUS65 KPSR 200319
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
820 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF US.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. BUT FOR THE MOST PART...MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT .
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ/ AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK DRY COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...OVER UTAH.
OTHERWISE...NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY
FORECASTS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLY.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTED LITTLE OR NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH POSITIVE TILT RIDGE ADVANCING TO EASTERN AZ BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES...HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING
EASTWARD...AND MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AND FROM THE UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INVADE OUR AREA. TIMING OF THIS INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LOOKS GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN IMPERIAL COUNTY...AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE PHOENIX AREA. DRY TROUGH AND WEAKENING FRONTAL
BAND WILL ALSO MEAN SOME COOLING...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
BRING PHOENIX TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF KEEP A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO
NEXT WEEK...AND HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM MONDAY INTO WED.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY AND HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S...AT LEAST...AS WE APPROACH THANKSGIVING DAY. AFTER THURSDAY
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES DEVELOP...AND STILL NOT SURE HOW MUCH
ENERGY WILL SPLIT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z SAT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE NEXT TROUGH FOR SAT AND
THE THREAT FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS HAS DECREASED. FORECAST REMAINS
RAIN FREE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SOME MOISTURE IN THE SUBTROPICS WILL INCREASE ACROSS AT LEAST
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN AZ BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/SIPPLE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
000
FXUS66 KMTR 200157
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
555 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:31 PM PST THURSDAY...SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR
ACROSS THE DISTRICT AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING PRETTY SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
STARTING TO TREND FROM THE SOUTH AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY BY
DAWN...AND SPREADING THROUGH THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
DURING THE MORNING...THEN REACHING THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY MIDDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO RANGE FROM UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY...TO AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS
THE GREATER SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA...TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE LOCALLY STRONG JUST
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH...
STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST.
SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE LATE SATURDAY WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE NORTH BAY ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER
THIS LAST SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE COMING
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:55 PM PST THURSDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...REDUCED CIGS AND SPREAD RAIN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD FALL IN
THE 17Z-22Z TIME-FRAME FRIDAY. LATER MODEL RUNS TODAY WILL EITHER
BUILD OR TAKE AWAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON FRONTAL TIMING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:15 AM PST THURSDAY...INHERITED FORECASTS FROM THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT LOOK GREAT. THE MAIN ISSUE HERE RECENTLY HAS BEEN
HOW TO HANDLE BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
ENP WAVE MODEL FORECAST TRENDS HAVE INDICATED LESS SWELL WITH EACH
PASSING RUN. MAXIMUM SWELL HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY`S RUN WAS 5.1 METERS
BUT TODAY`S RUN INDICATES 4.7 METERS. DECLINING MODEL FORECAST SWELL
HEIGHTS THE CLOSER WE GET TO A POTENTIAL HIGH SURF EVENT IS ACTUALLY
COMMON. AS IT STANDS NOW FORECASTER AGREEMENT WITHIN THE OFFICE IS TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR ROUGH SAN FRANCISCO BAR.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW/CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 192356
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
355 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN EMPHASIS IN SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS THE STRONG WINTER STORM
MOVING INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY WITH WET ROADS DURING SHOWERS WHILE
MOUNTAIN MOTORISTS WILL BE IMPACTED FURTHER FROM HEAVY
SNOW...LOWERED VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM
DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE LAST ONE...BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF NICE FALL
WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH TODAY...AS TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
OVER YESTERDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM...AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GREAT MOISTURE TAP.
HOWEVER...THE OROGRAPHICS LOOK RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE...AS DOES THE
UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. EVEN 925 AND 850 MB WINDS APPEAR TO BE
RANGING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT...WHICH MAY ALSO
HELP ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
SIERRA. EXPECT THAT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN SLOPE OF THE
SIERRA COULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF LIQUID...WITH BETWEEN A
0.3 AND 0.75 INCHES IN THE VALLEY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW TOTALS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONE HANG UP IS HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO INITIALLY RANGE BETWEEN 4500 FEET AND 6500 FEET ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO BETWEEN 2500 FEET AND 3500 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL MOVE INTO
PLACE AFTER THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE HAS MOVE THROUGH...WHICH MAY
MEAN THAT ONLY THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE COASTAL RANGE AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL GET A DUSTING...LEAVING THE MAIN
INTERSTATES AND HIGHWAYS RELATIVELY UNENCUMBERED. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NOT BE THE SAME STORY FOR THE WEST SLOPE OF THE SIERRA...WHERE
TRAVELING WILL LIKELY BE TREACHEROUS AT TIMES...AS ONE TO TWO FEET
OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. EITHER
WAY...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL
RANGE...AS SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW
FALL.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. SOME NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP DOWN THE
VALLEY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...AM NOT SURE IF THESE NORTH WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE REGION OR IF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE STORM MOVES INLAND.
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE 10-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS IN THE VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN
AROUND 13-15Z AND BEGIN TO LESSEN 22-00Z. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO
MVFR AFTER 15Z WITH LOCAL IFR DURING HEAVY SHOWERS. FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS 35-45 KTS EXPECTED. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-WEST SLOPE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY. ...WIND
ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL SACRAMENTO
VALLEY/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR DELTA/NORTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY/SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
&&
$$
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