[top]
000
FXUS62 KMLB 211944
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
OVERNIGHT...STILL JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK
SUN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT CONVERGENCE IS
STILL WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS (30%) FOR THE
ORLANDO METRO NORTHWARD AND TAPER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20%) SOUTHWARD
TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTY. FEEL...HOWEVER...THAT MOST
OF THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. OUR EAST-
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. PRESENTLY FEEL THAT LOW OVERCAST (STRATUS)
WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE LATE OVERNIGHT THAN FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF
ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
SUN...THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ITS
SLOW MARCH EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY. A TRAILING COOL FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
REMAINING WEST OF THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES EVER SO CLOSER
TOWARD THE REGION. STILL THE FEELING HERE IS THAT THE MAV GUIDANCE
REMAINS TOO HIGH WITH POPS AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POP GRID. WILL GO WITH 20% ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND AS HIGH AS
35%-40% ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY. THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE AROUND DON`T SEE ANYTHING FROM ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SUN NGT-TUE...H50 TROUGH SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
DAMPEN OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TURNS NEWD THROUGH THE SERN CONUS/
TN VLY SUN NGT. WEAK SFC WAVE WILL REDEVELOP IN BAROCLINIC ZONE
OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD EARLY MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY EDGE NEWD.
COOL FRONT AND ASCD MEAN MOISTURE BAND SLOW QUITE A BIT OVER CTRL
FL MON...THEN ONLY SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE SRN LATE MON INTO TUE. GFS
/NAM GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A WEAK/STRUNG OUT H50 VORTLOBE MEANDERING
OVER ECFL. KETSTRK WINDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 90KT...
HOWEVER SPEED DIVG OVHD LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED
TO 20-30 AREAWIDE FOR SUN NGT...AND ONLY 20 FOR THE SRN COUNTIES FOR
BOTH MON/TUE. MAINLY NR 80/L80S AREAWIDE FOR MON...FOLLOWED BY SLGT
COOLING OVER THE NORTH AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 FOR ALL BUT THE SERN COS...WHERE L80S WILL PREVAIL
ONCE AGAIN.
WED-SAT (MODIFIED PREV DISC)...LONGER TERM MODELS STILL DISAGREE
IN LOCATION OF FRONT OVER THE AREA INTO MID-LATE WEEK MAKING FOR
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MUCH LIKE 00Z...
THE 12Z GFS KEEPS FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO N FL AS WEAK LOW PUSHES OUT
OF THE GULF ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
WED/EARLY THU. WHILE FCST WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE DRIER
AND FARTHER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT DISPLAYED BY THE GFS
...LATEST TREND IN THE OP-GFS IS WETTER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THEN WILL NEED TO UP POPS FOR THE CTRL-SOUTH FOR THOSE TIME PDS.
GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO SHOW FRONT GETTING DISPLACED SWD BY LATE
WEEK AS DEEPENING U/L TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH
COOLER TEMPS ADVECTING IN FROM A STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MORE CONCERNED FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARD EARLY SUN MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT
TAFS WITH SOME LATE NIGHT TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW STRATUS
POTENTIAL.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT...N/NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE-SE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. E-NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE WITH SWELL
PERIODS AROUND 10 SEC. SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.
SUN...WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE S-SE AS THE SYSTEM MARCHES
EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION. SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 10-15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE DAY.
SUN NGT-THU...WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT SW SUN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WEAK LOW THAT EVENTUALLY DRAGS THE WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE ECFL
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N-NE BY WED.
WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SWELLS UP TO 6 FT OVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AOB 4FT LATE MON-WED...WITH
SEAS INCRSG AGAIN THU BEHIND SECONDARY POST-FRONTAL NRLY SURGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 61 80 65 80 / 30 30 30 10
MCO 62 82 66 81 / 30 30 30 20
MLB 66 82 67 80 / 20 30 30 20
VRB 67 82 68 81 / 20 20 30 20
LEE 64 80 65 81 / 30 40 30 10
SFB 62 82 65 82 / 30 30 30 20
ORL 65 81 66 81 / 30 30 30 20
FPR 67 83 66 81 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
[top]
000
FXUS62 KKEY 211931
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
WATER VAPOR AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 2 PM CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. A 75 TO 100 KNOT SOUTHERN JET AT 250 MB TRAVERSES
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH AMERICA FROM THE BAJA...NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS AND THE GULF AND THEN STREAMS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A DISORGANIZED MID AND
UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE OZARKS. THE
FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WIDE BAND OF
THESE JET STREAM WINDS...WITH SPOTTY CIRRUS MOVING WELL OVERHEAD OF
THE KEYS.
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE SURFACE AND MARINE
OBSERVATIONS DETAIL AS OF 200 PM A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SURFACE LOW. A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED PASSING
NEAR THE GULF COAST TO THE EAST OF THE LOW AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE KEYS...VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS JUST A FEW
STUBBORN BUT WEAK LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT BOUNDARIES OVER THE STRAITS.
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LEFT
OVER FROM THE LATE MORNING CONFLUENT BOUNDARY THAT PRODUCED A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE
LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF ARE NOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND EAST NEAR 10 MPH
OVER THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z
ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW NOW NEAR THE OZARKS WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT DAMPENS OUT...WITH THE LEFTOVER ENERGY OR IMPULSES REACHING THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE KEYS WILL REMAIN BENEATH
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN NORMAL SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
STREAM...OR ALSO ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP AND WARM
CORE MIDDLE AND UPPER NEAR 590 DECAMETERS AT 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT OF THIS
WILL BE CONTINUED MIDDLE AND UPPER DRYING...WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS
MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF...NAM...AND
ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY
INTO A FULL LATITUDINAL EAST COAST GYRE BY THANKSGIVING DAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM IS CARVED OUT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LATEST TIME HEIGHT
FORECASTS SUGGESTING AMPLE MID LEVEL OMEGA IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS
DURING WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL HELP TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. GIVEN THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS...MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER WILL BE
TRANSPORTED SOUTHWARD TO THE KEYS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITHIN LARGE
AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS IS THAT LARGE SCALE
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN EITHER THE VERY LOW OR NONEXISTENT
CATEGORIES.
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE 1008 MB GULF
LOW APPEARS TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND SLIDES TO OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE LATEST AVAILABLE 12Z NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE A FAIRLY MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERE...WITH
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) REMAINING BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING GIVEN THE
LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENCE FLOW IS ALWAYS GREATEST ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SUNNY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMA...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE MINIMA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LIKE THE PRESENT FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER THE GULF...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY ALONG THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE...A
MUCH DEEPER LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE IS INDICATED IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) REMAINING NEAR 2.00 INCHES
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING...12Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH INDICATIONS THAT WEAK LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL AID IN BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...HAVE ONLY RAISED RAIN
CHANCES UP 10 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND OMEGA IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE AREA. SO FOR
NOW WILL ADVERTISE 40 PERCENT FOR THOSE TWO PERIODS...WHICH IS WELL
BELOW THE AVAIL MEX NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR 12 HR POPS FOR
THOSE TWO PERIODS. AFTER THIS FRONT PULLS THRU THE KEYS THURSDAY
NIGHT...DECENT 1000-850 MB COLD THICKNESS ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS THEREAFTER.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER...DRY AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A GENTLE EAST FLOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT GENTLE TO TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY REGARDING THE POSTING OF FOR MARINE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 22/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT EYW AND MTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 75 83 74 83 73 / 10 10 20 20 20
MARATHON 75 84 74 84 72 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS..............KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR.....ROSS/FUENTES
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
[top]
000
FXUS62 KJAX 211922
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...AN NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH AN OCCLUDED CLOSED SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE
LA COAST. LOCALLY THE JAX CWA WAS BEING DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE
THAT WEDGED DOWN THE SE STATES FROM A CENTER OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A COOL AND STABLE NNE FLOW PREVAILED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
COMBINED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE SW...MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY ONLY NEAR THE MID 60S ACROSS SE GA TO THE LOW/MID 70S
ACROSS OUR FL ZONES.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...
SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT FROM W-E AS THE GULF LOW TRACKS ALONG
THE COAST TOWARD FL. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WRT TO PRECIP
TIMING AND POP VALUES AND HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH ADVERTISES
THE HIGHEST POPS OF 70-80% BRUSHING OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN ACROSS OUR GA ZONES ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN THE MID/UPR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MONDAY MAY CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SPRINKLES AS THE SFC LOW OPENS UP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN COOL ACROSS GA WITH MAXES IN THE 60S AND MINS IN THE
50S...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH MAX TEMPS WILL NEAR 80 ACROSS OUR FL ZONES
WITH MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
SVR WX POTENTIAL TONIGHT-SUN...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FL TONIGHT AS
THE GULF LOW TRACKS EAST. THE NAM12 (MODEL OF CHOICE) POSITIONS THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS N FL AND GENERALLY KEEPS IT NEAR THE FL-GA STATELINE
SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONG WEDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH. NAM12 SFC
WINDS...BOUNDARY LAYER BEST LIFTED INDICES AND 0-1SM SRH VALUES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM
APALACHEE BAY AFTER 09Z TOMORROW MORNING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALMOST LACKING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. IT IS NOT UNTIL AFTER 15Z THAT
THE NAM12 INDICATES POSITIVE SFC BASED CAPES. SO...EVEN THOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY BE ROTATING TOMORROW MORNING...THE CIRCULATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO STABLE LOW LEVELS. MIDDAY
TOMORROW...HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SLOWER TO MOVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
AREA...AND...IF ANY INSOLATION CAN OCCUR...THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTN AS
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE MAIN CONCERN AN ISOLD TOR.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE
HWO ON SUNDAY...AND LEAVE OUT OF ZFP/GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OFFSHORE OF THE FL
COAST WED AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
OUR CWA...SO HAVE INDICATED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED AND WED
NIGHT. POPS DECREASE THU AS COLD AND DRY AIR FILTER OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO VALUES FRI AND SAT WITH
MINS IN THE LOW/MID 40S INLAND WITH MAXES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS AS
LOWERING TEMPERATURES INTERACT WITH EASTERLY FLOW REGIME /ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS/. IN ADDITION...VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TONIGHT IN
FOG AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW CEILING/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS WHERE
COMBINED SEAS UPWARDS OF 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE...WITH EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WILL SEGMENT ZONES AT FERNANDINA BEACH
AS PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WEDGE WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 54 62 50 66 / 60 80 30 0
SSI 59 67 58 70 / 40 70 40 0
JAX 59 73 59 75 / 40 70 30 0
SGJ 63 75 64 77 / 40 60 30 10
GNV 60 77 60 76 / 60 60 30 0
OCF 62 80 62 78 / 50 50 30 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZAPPE/KEEGAN
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTAE 211912
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
212 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOW THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TX/LA LINE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION AND OPENING UP INTO A WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
OCCLUDED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE LA COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A
ENE TRACK ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...THEN INLAND AROUND MOBILE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THIS LOW FILLING THROUGH
THIS TIME AS IT TRACKS OVER SE AL AND INTO GA MONDAY.
RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER LA/SRN
MS/AL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND INTO OUR SW GA COUNTIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO SUNDAY AS THIS LOW/WARM FRONT APPROACH.
THIS SLOWER TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
RAIN CHANCES UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH THROUGH THIS TIME WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE RESULTING POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. AS A
RESULT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS LOWER. HOWEVER THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WILL GO WITH A BLEND AS BASIC GUIDANCE...AND
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR CONSISTENCY...HOLDING ON TO MORE
CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. AS THE SECOND LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER DRIER AIR
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN NORTHEAST AND INLAND OVER OR AROUND
MOBILE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEST NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
A PERIOD OR TWO WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING WIND AND SEAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN UP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN TREND DOWN INTO THE
FIRST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO AREA. OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN...LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. SOME
TSRA PSBL AT TLH OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING
DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 57 71 52 72 49 / 80 70 20 10 10
PANAMA CITY 60 73 55 70 51 / 80 40 10 10 10
DOTHAN 54 61 48 65 46 / 80 50 10 10 10
ALBANY 54 61 49 66 47 / 80 70 20 10 10
VALDOSTA 57 66 52 71 49 / 80 70 30 10 10
CROSS CITY 61 76 56 76 52 / 80 70 30 10 10
APALACHICOLA 62 74 57 71 53 / 80 60 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AG/PD/BG
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211902
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DEVELOPING LOW OVER NW GULF
OF MEX OFF TX/LA COAST WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
MOST ENERGY WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT SHOULD MOVE TO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE FRONT LOOSING STEAM AND
STALLING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER
A WARM JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW USUALLY
YIELDS WARMER TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS...WL KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS JUST
FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES SINCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WL
LIMIT SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE DOW
THE PENINSULA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING OF A SERIOUS CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS
INDICATED BY THE PRECIP/OMEGA FIELD AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE GFS IS OVERDOING IT AND SO WL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN LOW SCT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A STRONG ENOUGH
PUSH TO THE FRONT TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG SFC HIGH OF MIXED ORIGIN (PACIFIC/ARCTIC) WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH TO EAST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW
ADVECTING, NOT ONLY LOWER TEMPS, BUT ALSO DRIER AIR DOWN THE
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
.MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY E/SE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL NE SWELL (2 TO 3 FEET) WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET BUT MAY
INCREASE ABOVE THAT THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH WITH NW WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED BEHIND IT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 70 84 / 20 20 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 83 73 82 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI 72 85 72 84 / 20 20 20 30
NAPLES 69 83 70 83 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...17/ERA
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTBW 211815
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
115 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE TX/LA BORDER REALLY TAKING SHAPE. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS SYSTEM TAKING A
NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LOSING ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY FALLING APART AFTER IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC.
GFS AND NAM START TO DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. GFS WANTS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER TAMPA BAY
BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. NAM SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
NATURE COAST BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AND WASHING OUT BY MONDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING KEEPING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN FURTHER
NORTH WHILE DROPPING POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY.
BY TOMORROW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY SO RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE BAY BUT KEPT A
CHANCE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THERMODYNAMICS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL MAINTAIN
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW.
BY MONDAY...FRONT STARTS TO WASH OUT AS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH
DECREASED RAINFALL CHANCES.
DAILY HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...SW FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP
VORTICITY MAXES ROTATING OVER THE REGION WITH A STALLED SURFACE
FRONT OVER S FLORIDA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
OUR AREA TO BE BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS EARLY WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR STALLED FRONT FOR SLIGHTER
HIGHER POPS WHILE COLD FRONT NEARS THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AS WELL AROUND AROUND 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH TOMORROW AS
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE BUT
WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE STATUS. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
TEMPORARY CHOPPY SEAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 67 80 66 / 20 40 40 20
FMY 84 69 83 68 / 20 30 30 20
GIF 83 65 82 65 / 20 40 40 20
SRQ 81 67 80 66 / 20 40 40 20
BKV 82 64 80 61 / 20 50 40 20
SPG 80 70 79 66 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211734
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1234 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE...NOT
AFFECTING ANY EASTERN TERMINAL. KEPT SCT CLOUD DECK AT 3000 FT
UNTIL 22/00Z...AFTER THAT KEPT THE CLOUD COVER AS FEW. PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...THEREFORE WILL AMEND
IF NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR KTMB AND KAPF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER APF, PBI, AND TMB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE REDUCED VIS THROUGH
13Z WITH BR. THIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY MID MORNING FROM THE NE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KAMX CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS ACTIVITY AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE PALM
BEACH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM
WINDS...AND NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH 8 AM EST. MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY
DIFFUSE ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW...WILL
KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS...AND WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA-WIDE...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOW-END CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR EASTERN ZONES
WITH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHERE A WEAK PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT AXIS MAY IGNITE DEVELOPMENT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
LOOS ITS IDENTITY RATHER QUICKLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGH LEVELS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NON-ZERO...WILL NOT
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WILL
USE CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW LEADING TO WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKIER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME MARITIME INFLUENCE POSSIBLE ALONG BOTH COASTS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF A WEAK FRONT
STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY CONTINUING.
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPER AND LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH IT AND DEVELOP A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID/LATE WEEK. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING AN END
TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES... AND RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FROM THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SMALL...1-3 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOCALLY
HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
AND COMBINED SEAS OF 1-3 FEET. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO MARINE
WEATHER CONCERNS...THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHEN NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND ALLOW SEAS TO INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET
FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC/GULF MARINE ZONES. STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH INCREASINGLY ROUGH CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 50-55 PERCENT. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT
IN LOWER RH VALUES AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 83 69 83 / 20 40 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 83 72 84 / 20 30 30 30
MIAMI 73 84 72 84 / 20 30 30 30
NAPLES 68 84 69 82 / 20 40 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RGH
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...17/ERA
000
FXUS62 KTAE 211436
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NWRN GULF OR JUST OFF THE LA COAST WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.
RECENTLY ANIMATED VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE TX COAST WITH PLENTY OF MID-TO-UPPER
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION. EXPECT
THIS LOW/WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE ON A ENE TRACK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
COME LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THIS LOW/WARM FRONT TRACK
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TX COAST TRACKS ENE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE MODELS ALL INDICATE IT WEAKENING OR
FILLING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT FOR
OUR AREA TONIGHT...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND CEILINGS AFFECTING ABY...TLH...VLD
THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS DURING MUCH OF DAY..BUT LOWERING CEILINGS
BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INTO AREA. OVERNIGHT... EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH RAIN...LOW CEILINGS AND FOG.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GIBBS/GOREE
000
FXUS62 KKEY 211423
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
WATER VAPOR AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 9 AM CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. A NEAR 100 KNOT JET AT 250 MB TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA...NORTHERN
MEXICO...THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. A DISORGANIZED UPPER
LOW OVER OKLAHOMA DIVES THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
OF THE OF THE JET. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH A WIDE BAND OF THE
SOUTHERN JETSTREAM...WITH CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE SURFACE AND MARINE
OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH FROM THE SYSTEM TO
CENTRAL MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING
ILLUSTRATES A GENTLE BUT MOISTENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 10000 FEET...WITH PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) THAT HAS
RISEN IN 24 HOURS FROM 1.46 INCHES OR ALMOST 1.5 INCHES FROM ONLY
1.08 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS AVAILABLE
ALONG THE 300K SURFACE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DELIVERING BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET.
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ISLANDS
AND ADJOINING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR SCANS SHOW A DWINDLING AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE WATERS WITHIN 30 NM OFFSHORE OF THE
FLORIDA REEF BETWEEN SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT AND EAST SAMBO LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REGISTERING
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OUT AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SLIDE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD AND FILL A FEW
DECAMETERS THROUGH 00Z. JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE TRANSPORTED
OVER THE KEYS THRU THE DAY.
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BY DAYS END. DRYER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FILTER ACROSS THE KEYS FROM THE EAST LATER
THIS MORNING...PUTTING AN END TO ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. WILL JUST DO A LAST
MINUTE UPDATE THIS MORNING TO TAKE OUT TRANSITIONAL WORDING AND
REMOVE SHOWER THREAT OVER THE ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 22/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT EYW AND MTH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF EYW THIS
MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS..............KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR.....ROSS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KJAX 211423
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
923 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...
.UPDATE...PATCHY DENSE MORNING FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING AND LOW STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO STORM SYSTEM. A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE CONTINUES DOWN THE SE REGION FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS BRINGING COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE
LOCAL CWA. GIVING AMT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND COOL NNE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR GA ZONES TO MID/UPPER 70S FL ZONES. LOWERED
POPS FOR A SILENT 10% ACROSS OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY ZONES THIS AFTN.
TONIGHT...00Z/06Z MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WHICH IMPACTS HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW. DESPITE FRONTAL PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES...BEST PHASING OF
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ENERGY LIFTING NNE ACROSS OUR GA ZONES DURING
THE DAY SUN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS
OUR FL ZONES SUN AFTN. NOT A BIG RAIN EVENT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLD ROTATING STORMS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
CRG WHERE LIFR CIGS CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT CRG...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR PREVAILING
THROUGH TODAY. CIGS LOWER TONIGHT AS GULF OF MEXICO STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH VISIBILITY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT DUE TO VCSH.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCEC FOR OFFSHORE LEGS. COMBINED SEAS
ARE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT WITH THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS LIKELY ACROSS OUR FL
LEG SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE...BUT AN ISOLD 6 FT SEA IS POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY AS NNE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 53 65 50 / 10 60 80 40
SSI 67 59 70 57 / 10 50 70 50
JAX 71 58 74 57 / 10 40 70 50
SGJ 71 62 76 61 / 10 40 60 40
GNV 74 59 77 59 / 10 50 60 40
OCF 77 62 79 61 / 10 40 50 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZAPPE/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 211413
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
912 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENT-TODAY...CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT A
MINIMUM OVERNIGHT NEGATING EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME LOWER STRATUS NEAR KLEE & KISM WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY HIGH
BROKEN-OVERCAST SKY. GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN LOWERING POP CHANCES
TODAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONES ONCE TO TAKE OUT MORNING FOG
MENTION BUT MAY HAVE TO DO SO AGAIN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...THOUGH
IT WILL BE MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS TYPE CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT...(PREVIOUS)...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS STILL PROGGED TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN A LITTLE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PRE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD STAY
TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WILL HOLD ONTO INHERITED SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES...WHICH ACTUALLY AGREE WITH THE LATEST MOS VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...ANTICIPATED FOG THIS MORNING DID NOT OCCUR AS FCST DUE
TO CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD REDUCING MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
LOW CIGS AT KISM/KLEE SHOULD BREAK SHORTLY...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
MAINLY HIGH OVERCAST.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...EAST/NORTHEAST SWELLS STILL PERSISTENT
AROUND 4.3 FT AT BUOY 41009 THIS MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AOB 10
KTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. NO CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI
000
FXUS62 KTBW 211412
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...MORNING FOG STILL LINGERS IN PARTS OF LEE COUNTY NEAR
RSW AND FMY SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. DID SEE PATCHY FOG AREA WIDE
TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RECEIVING THE THICKEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT. SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH TOMORROW AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTH
OF OUR REGION. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
ONLY ANTICIPATE MINOR UPDATES AND ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...ONLY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SW FL THAT WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT SHORTLY.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS INCREASING TODAY INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
CURRENT MARINE FORECAST IN ON TRACK WITH BRINGING IN SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 67 80 65 / 20 40 40 20
FMY 84 69 83 68 / 20 20 30 20
GIF 83 66 82 65 / 20 30 40 20
SRQ 81 67 81 66 / 20 30 40 20
BKV 82 63 80 61 / 20 40 40 20
SPG 80 70 79 66 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARIN...20/BARRON
AVIATION...25/DAVIS
000
FXUS62 KKEY 211335 RRA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
REMAINED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS HAVE MIGRATED THROUGH THE LOWER AND WESTERNMOST
MIDDLE KEYS. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE KEYS. SURFACE WISE...A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE (1008 MB) SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHING FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACROSS THE MARINE
DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FLORIDA
BAY.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
FORMIDABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE DAMPENING OUT CONSIDERABLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE...A VERY BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND SUNDAY...PULLING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.
THEREAFTER...A WEAK WESTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL NOSE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SO THE QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION?
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION...A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 300 K
WILL HELP ERODE THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED POPS
WILL BE INSERTED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BE MAINTAINED FOR
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE WISE...WINDS VEERING TO
SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING OF A DEGREE OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DUE TO A LIGHT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH GFS
INDICATING WHAT APPEARS SPURIOUS UNDULATIONS DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MIGRATING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. IN ADDITION...IT INDICATES AN EASTERLY WAVE
WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. BECAUSE OF
THIS ACTIVITY...A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS SHOWN
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WHICH FINALLY KICKS OUT THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...ECMWF APPEARS A LITTLE
SMOOTHER AND REALISTIC WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THURSDAY...WHICH HELPS
PULL AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WITH THIS
SOLUTION...ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL
GENERATE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THEREAFTER. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 30 PERCENT POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GENTLE TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGARDLESS...NO EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE MTH AND EYW TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 82 75 82 74 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON 82 75 82 74 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.................APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....MS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211124
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
624 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER APF, PBI, AND TMB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE REDUCED VIS THROUGH
13Z WITH BR. THIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY MID MORNING FROM THE NE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KAMX CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS ACTIVITY AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE PALM
BEACH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM
WINDS...AND NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH 8 AM EST. MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY
DIFFUSE ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW...WILL
KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS...AND WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA-WIDE...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOW-END CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR EASTERN ZONES
WITH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHERE A WEAK PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT AXIS MAY IGNITE DEVELOPMENT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
LOOS ITS IDENTITY RATHER QUICKLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGH LEVELS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NON-ZERO...WILL NOT
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WILL
USE CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW LEADING TO WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKIER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME MARITIME INFLUENCE POSSIBLE ALONG BOTH COASTS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF A WEAK FRONT
STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY CONTINUING.
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPER AND LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH IT AND DEVELOP A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID/LATE WEEK. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING AN END
TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES... AND RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FROM THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SMALL...1-3 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOCALLY
HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
AND COMBINED SEAS OF 1-3 FEET. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO MARINE
WEATHER CONCERNS...THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHEN NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND ALLOW SEAS TO INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET
FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC/GULF MARINE ZONES. STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH INCREASINGLY ROUGH CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 50-55 PERCENT. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT
IN LOWER RH VALUES AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 83 69 / 10 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 83 72 / 10 20 30 30
MIAMI 85 73 84 72 / 10 20 30 30
NAPLES 86 68 84 69 / 10 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KMFL 210958
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KAMX CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS ACTIVITY AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE PALM
BEACH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM
WINDS...AND NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH 8 AM EST. MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY
DIFFUSE ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW...WILL
KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS...AND WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA-WIDE...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOW-END CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR EASTERN ZONES
WITH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHERE A WEAK PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT AXIS MAY IGNITE DEVELOPMENT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
LOOS ITS IDENTITY RATHER QUICKLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGH LEVELS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NON-ZERO...WILL NOT
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WILL
USE CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW LEADING TO WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKIER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME MARITIME INFLUENCE POSSIBLE ALONG BOTH COASTS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF A WEAK FRONT
STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY CONTINUING.
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPER AND LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH IT AND DEVELOP A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID/LATE WEEK. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING AN END
TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES... AND RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FROM THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SMALL...1-3 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOCALLY
HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
AND COMBINED SEAS OF 1-3 FEET. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO MARINE
WEATHER CONCERNS...THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHEN NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND ALLOW SEAS TO INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET
FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC/GULF MARINE ZONES. STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH INCREASINGLY ROUGH CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 50-55 PERCENT. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT
IN LOWER RH VALUES AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 83 69 / 10 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 83 72 / 10 20 30 30
MIAMI 85 73 84 72 / 10 20 30 30
NAPLES 86 68 84 69 / 10 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KTAE 210953
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 09 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
A 1008 MB LOW OFF THE TX COAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (AND
COOL DRY AIR) OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILED THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOW. A SMALL BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS MCS HAD DEVELOPED JUST EAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. THESE STORMS HAD A SHEARED...SUPER
CELL APPEARANCE. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A TROUGH
PROPAGATING EASTWARD ALONG THE TX COAST...WITH ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODEL
RUNS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A CONSENSUS SHIFTING TOWARD A
WEAKER LOW WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. IN FACT...THE MAJORITY OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL BUT DISSIPATES THE SURFACE LOW AS IT QUICKLY
OCCLUDES NEAR OR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...THE PROBABILITY
OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS SLOW-DOWN
MAY BE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE DEPTH OF DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION...AS IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO
MOISTEN THE VERY DRY MID TROPOSPHERE.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS SMALL AT THIS TIME...IT IS
NOT NEGLIGIBLE. THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
BETWEEN 06 UTC TONIGHT AND 18 UTC SUNDAY. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN
OFFSHORE THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH FL
AND EXTREME SOUTH GA SUNDAY. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE LOCAL
DEEP LAYER AND LOW LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE QUESTION...AS
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED SUPER CELLS. THE CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST...LIMITING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER LAND. BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER LAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE BEST SHEAR AND LIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED
AND/OR MOVED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE SPC FORECASTS A 2 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TORNADO WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT...AND A 5 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WE SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SUPER CELLS NEAR AND SOUTH OF OUR COASTLINE...BUT THEN
THEY WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INLAND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
REMEMBER THAT EVEN THE BEST MODELS RARELY RESOLVE SMALL SCALE
DETAILS (LIKE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR FROM
THE GULF) BEYOND 24 HOURS...SO IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE
COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND MORE THAN EXPECTED THERE WOULD BE AN
ENHANCED SEVERE STORM RISK.
.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE RESULTING POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. AS A
RESULT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS LOWER. HOWEVER THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WILL GO WITH A BLEND AS BASIC GUIDANCE...AND
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR CONSISTENCY...HOLDING ON TO MORE
CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. AS THE SECOND LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER DRIER AIR
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND AREAS OF LOW MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS SPREADING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
DAYBREAK...AS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS FOR KVLD AND KTLH. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY CIRRUS. BY AFTERNOON A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SPREAD THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LATER AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING FORECAST BY THE MODELS...IT APPEARS LESS
LIKELY THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE
00 UTC WAVEWATCH INDICATES LOWER SEAS THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT WE
LOWERED ITS SEAS FORECAST A FOOT OR TWO MORE AS THE MEAN OF THE
MODEL SURFACE WINDS ARE LOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 21 UTC SREF SUPPORTS THIS IDEA OF LOWER
WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. AFTER THIS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BUT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST..AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO FILTER INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 72 58 71 51 71 / 20 80 50 10 10
PANAMA CITY 70 60 72 57 70 / 30 80 40 10 10
DOTHAN 65 51 64 49 67 / 30 80 50 20 10
ALBANY 66 53 64 49 68 / 20 80 60 20 10
VALDOSTA 71 56 69 52 72 / 10 80 70 30 10
CROSS CITY 76 57 76 58 77 / 10 70 60 20 10
APALACHICOLA 71 62 73 57 70 / 20 70 40 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
000
FXUS62 KJAX 210934
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
425 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY TONIGHT...
...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...
.SHORT TERM (SAT-MON)...PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF WHICH
IS HELPING THE DENSE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD DENSE. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE FOG LIFTING
BY MID MORNING. TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH HOLDS FIRM. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN GULF. TONIGHT
WILL BE THE TRANSITION AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF COAST. BULK OF PCP BEGINS ACROSS WEST
HALF AFTER 06Z OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY
12Z SUN...WARM FRONT WILL DRAPED OVER NE FL AND WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO SE GA DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. HELICITIES
LOOK IMPRESSIVE EARLY SUNDAY AM BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO COOL DOWN IN STORE. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN SE GA SO SKIES
THERE REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU
WED THEN BELOW NORMAL THU-FRI AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. ALLOWING FOR MUCH COOLER AIR TO COME IN. SLIGHT CHC
POPS ON WED-WED NITE WITH FRONT OTHERWISE POPS NEAR NIL.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE NLY AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS ARE 3-5 FT WITH
SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT. SCEC IS
HEADLINED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AS
THE SFC LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W. BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST BY MON NIGH WITH
WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO NLY BY TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDS ARE BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND VLIFR MAKING TAF
FORECASTS A CHALLENGE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUING MVFR VIS AROUND SSI AND
OCNL VLIFR ARE REMAINING TAFS WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED. IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED BY AROUND 13Z/14Z WITH VFR DURING THE DAYTIME THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS IN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW INSERTED PROB GROUPS
FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 02Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 68 53 65 50 / 10 60 80 40
SSI 69 59 70 57 / 10 50 70 50
JAX 73 58 74 57 / 10 40 70 50
SGJ 73 62 76 61 / 10 40 60 40
GNV 76 59 77 59 / 20 50 60 40
OCF 79 62 79 61 / 20 40 50 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/ARS
000
FXUS62 KTBW 210855
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...AT 3 AM EST OBSERVATIONS ARE AGAIN
DEPICTING DEVELOPING FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT L/L
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WIDE SPREAD FOG THIS MORNING...
BECOMING DENSE AT TIMES.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING M/L SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/FRONT COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE PANHANDLE
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SLOWS DOWN A BIT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE AND LOOKS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF
LOWER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SEEMS THAT THE M/L TROUGH WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AND MUCH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. BUT PLENTY OF L/L MOISTURE
AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON
SUNDAY. 20 POPS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE...THEN A
GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EARLY MORNING WITH 50 PERCENT
NORTH...40/30 PERCENT CENTRAL AND 20 SOUTH. WILL ALSO KEEP 40/30
POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
QUICKLY CLEAR OUT LATE SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN SOME AND
SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
DURING MIDWEEK THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING NORTH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN AND HAVE LEFT THE 20 POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND 20 TO 30 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 30 POPS AT THIS
TIME. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KT AT
TIMES...THEN APPROACH 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN RUSKIN FL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 67 80 65 / 20 40 40 20
FMY 84 69 83 68 / 20 20 30 20
GIF 83 66 82 65 / 20 30 40 20
SRQ 81 67 81 66 / 20 30 40 20
BKV 82 63 80 61 / 20 40 40 20
SPG 80 70 79 66 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...22/AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/PRC
000
FXUS62 KMLB 210817
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
317 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY-TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF MOVES TO AROUND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. EXPECT EARLY MORNING
STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. A
NORTH FLOW EARLY WILL VEER TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD RETURN A
MODEST AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ONLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH MOS POPS ARE
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THERE.
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN A LITTLE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND PRE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. WILL HOLD ONTO INHERITED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES...WHICH
ACTUALLY AGREE WITH THE LATEST MOS VALUES.
SUN-MON...LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE PROGRESSION AND
WEAKENING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LOOKS TO NOW NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT AS IT THEN STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON. MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS OVER ECFL LOOKS TOO
HIGH WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO HAVE UNDERCUT
MOS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL KEEP POPS FOR SUN CAPPED AT 40% MAINLY
OVER LAKE COUNTY CLOSER TO LOW AND STALLED BOUNDARY OVER N FL WITH
30% OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ALSO DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDERSTORM WORDING FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
AS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE SOUTH MON MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO
HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY
POSITION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S SUN AND THEN WILL SEE SOME
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE NORTH AND BEHIND THE FRONT MON WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 FROM ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD.
TUE-FRI...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN LOCATION OF FRONT
OVER THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK MAKING FOR CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. 00Z GFS KEEPS FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO N FL AS WEAK LOW
PUSHES OUT OF THE GULF ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
DRIER AND FARTHER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT DISPLAYED BY THE
GFS AS THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 20% NEAR
THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ECFL. MODELS THEN
CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONT GETTING DISPLACED SOUTHWARD BY LATE WEEK AS
DEEPENING U/L TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH COOLER
TEMPS ADVECTING IN FROM A STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW LEVELS LOOK SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
STILL EXPECT THAT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AS
FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS VEERED TO EASTERLY ACCORDING TO
THE CANAVERAL PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD BRING A LITTLE STRATOCU INTO
THE COAST AND INHIBIT FOG. SOME INTERIOR TERMINALS COULD AGAIN
EXPERIENCE LIFR UNTIL ABOUT 13Z.
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER TONIGHT BUT SO WILL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.
MOS IS SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY NORTHEAST-EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE AND KEEP SEA
HEIGHTS ELEVATED...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT
NORTH-EAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...STILL WITH SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SUN-WED...WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SW SUN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOB 15 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS UP TO 6 FT OVER
THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AOB 4 FT MON-WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 77 64 80 64 / 10 30 30 20
MCO 81 64 82 65 / 10 30 30 20
MLB 80 67 81 66 / 10 20 30 20
VRB 82 66 83 66 / 10 20 30 20
LEE 80 65 80 64 / 20 30 40 20
SFB 81 64 82 65 / 10 30 30 20
ORL 81 66 81 66 / 10 30 30 20
FPR 82 66 83 65 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KMFL 210543
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER ISOLATED
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH CEILINGS BRIEFLY DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING AT NEAR 3K FT, OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP, BUT
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. TMB AND APF ARE THE TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED VIS, BUT PBI, OPF, AND FXE MAY ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING WITH VIS OF 3
TO 5 MILES IN BR.
A LAND BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND
LAST UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE, AND THEN GIVE WAY TO THE
NE FLOW. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
THE FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EAST
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE CWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SO FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE A
GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE UP THE FOG WORDING TO WIDESPREAD OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR INLAND METRO AREAS OF THE
EAST COAST AND THE WEST COAST FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE VISIBILITIES
COULD GET CLOSE TO 1/4 OF MILE EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT DECIDE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS OR NOT.
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT...DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING OF THE DAY. SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MARINE ZONES EVENING UPDATE FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH
SOUTHWEST TO THE LOXAHATCHEE SWAMP. LEFT OUT VCSH AT KPBI FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME ESE AT
8-9 KTS EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, SE AT 7 KTS ARND 15Z
WITH A SW SEABREEZE DVLPG AROUND 19Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTH (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF IT) TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF OF MEX. SFC TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE E-SE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
NRN GULF/SE U.S. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT STALLING. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RESULT IN RATHER WARM AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AND THIS COULD WORK AGAINST
IT. WL NOT MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH IT SOUTH OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME VARIABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW 6 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 85 67 / 10 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 71 85 70 / 10 20 30 20
MIAMI 85 70 85 69 / 10 20 30 20
NAPLES 85 67 83 67 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KMLB 210312
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE H100-H70 RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. SE EXTENSION OF THE SFC RIDGE
HAS A RESPECTABLE PGRAD AND IS GENERATING A SHALLOW LYR OF 15-20KT
NRLY WINDS AS SEEN ON THE USAF 915HZ PROFILER AND THE 00Z KXMR
SOUNDING.
THESE WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT SHOULD THEY
MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH...THOUGH LATEST RUC80 ANALYSIS INDICATES
WINDS ARE WEAKER INLAND. INDEED...THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS WINDS
AOB 5KTS THRU THE H100-H80 LYR. AFTN PACKAGE DOES HAVE GREATER FOG
CONCENTRATION OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES...SO NO NEED FOR UPDATES THIS
EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 21/06Z AREAS MVFR BR DVLPG ALL SITES. BTWN 21-08Z-21/12Z TEMPO
IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS ALNG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...IFR CIGS ALONG
THE COAST. BCMG VFR ALL SITES ~21/14Z.
&&
.MARINE...
LCL BUOY NETWORK MEASURING N/NE WINDS ~10KTS WITH A 4-5FT NERLY
SWELL. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY TO THE E/NE OVERNIGHT AS THE H100-H70
RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE
MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE AFTN FCST...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
BRAGAW
000
FXUS62 KJAX 210257
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
957 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...
...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...
.PUBLIC UPDATE...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
HAS ENABLED ONSHORE /EASTERLY/ FLOW TO ESTABLISH TODAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT HAS MAINTAINED
DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AOA 700 MB OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INITIALLY TRAVERSING THE AREA TRAILING BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. FOG TOOLS INDICATE FOG WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BELOW A
HALF-MILE. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED IN THE ZFP. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST AGAIN TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM12 HAS COME IN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH FOG ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH PATCHY
FOG ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT VQQ..JAX..AND SSI. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...AMENDMENTS WERE ISSUED TO INCLUDE PREVAILING GROUPS OF
IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN PATCHY DENSE FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING 4 TO 6 FT SWELLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES WILL BE NECESSARY.
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA WITH MOISTURE AXIS RESPONSIBLE
FOR FOG THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WITH THE
RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE AXIS HAS
ONCE AGAIN TAKEN A POSITION ALONG OUR IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAS
RESULTED IN SCT CU DEVELOPMENT. TO THE WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR
PLAYER FOR NE FL AND SE GA THIS WEEKEND.
FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN
TIER...FOG TOOLS HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE FOR THIS CYCLE.
STILL...SOME INDICATIONS OF PATCHY DENSE CONDITIONS FROM THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PLOTS AND LATEST NUMERIC GUIDANCE.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT GRID SET AND ONLY LIMITED CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL THE FASTEST...THE SREF THE SLOWEST...AND THE GS
ENSEMBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO THE LEAN TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS
JUST LOW END SCT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THROUGH 00Z SUN. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN MOISTURE CORE WILL PUSH
INTO THE GA PORTION AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
WITH HIGH END LIKELY POPS. BY 12Z SUN...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY
FOR THE AREA AND THE INTRODUCTION OF SCT TSRA TO THE GRIDS.
AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH LOW NOW PROGGED TO REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE REGION AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THROUGH SUN...DYNAMICS
ARE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND THE GA PORTION WHERE 06 KM SHEAR WILL BE THE
HIGHEST. 0-1KM HODOGRAPHS ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH
OF THE AREA. LIMITING FACTOR AS USUAL WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH
MODELS SHOWING A MAX 500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0 TO -2 LIS. GOOD
DIFFLUENT SIGNATURE ALOFT COULD HELP OVERCOME THESE DEFICIENCIES
AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN LATEST HWO.
.LONG TERM...ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO
COOL DOWN IN STORE. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR MOISTURE
WILL SURGE AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND WILL LEAVE GRIDS WITH
NIL POPS BASED ON LATEST GFS RUN. DEEPER US EAST COAST TROUGH AND
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
$$
ZAPPE/SHULER
000
FXUS62 KKEY 210214
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S. ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY
MOIST FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST
UNDER ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CONSTANT TONIGHT. LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LIMIT
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
OVERNIGHT. THIN...WISPY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SPEED ACROSS THE
CELESTIAL DOME FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HANDLES THIS SITUATION
WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES EXPECTED ON ALL KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS...WITH SKC-FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 54 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 20TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 136 YEARS LATER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................DFM
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 210146 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
THE FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EAST
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE CWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SO FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE A
GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE UP THE FOG WORDING TO WIDESPREAD OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR INLAND METRO AREAS OF THE
EAST COAST AND THE WEST COAST FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE VISIBILITIES
COULD GET CLOSE TO 1/4 OF MILE EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT DECIDE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS OR NOT.
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT...DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING OF THE DAY. SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MARINE ZONES EVENING UPDATE FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH
SOUTHWEST TO THE LOXAHATCHEE SWAMP. LEFT OUT VCSH AT KPBI FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME ESE AT
8-9 KTS EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, SE AT 7 KTS ARND 15Z
WITH A SW SEABREEZE DVLPG AROUND 19Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTH (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF IT) TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF OF MEX. SFC TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE E-SE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
NRN GULF/SE U.S. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT STALLING. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RESULT IN RATHER WARM AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AND THIS COULD WORK AGAINST
IT. WL NOT MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH IT SOUTH OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME VARIABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW 6 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 66 83 69 85 / 10 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 84 71 85 / 10 10 20 30
MIAMI 69 85 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
NAPLES 65 85 67 83 / - 10 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KTAE 210046
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
750 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL IMPACT OUR CWA OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF SOUTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI THIS EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE IT LIFTS
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LA AT 12Z SAT WITH THE WARM FRONT STRETCHED EASTWARD OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. WE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IF
IT OCCURS...IT WILL BE DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME
FRAME. UNTIL THEN...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING OUR WESTERNMOST
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO UPDATE TO GRIDS OR ZONES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
AVIATION...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON ZERO.
COULD STILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KTLH AND
KVLD...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MORNING. AFTER CLOUDS LIFT IN
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY...ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON IS THE PROBLEM OF THE FORECAST. MODELS VERY DIFFERENT IN
HANDLING APPROACHING LOW. HAVE GONE WITH HEDGE FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON...WITH PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BARRY/CAMP
000
FXUS62 KTBW 210006
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. IDEAL LIGHT NORTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL POOL AND CONDENSE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL
BE LOCALLY DENSE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO
DRIVE WITH CAUTION AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS WHEN DRIVING IN FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG AND LOW CIGS AND A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. HAVE USED THE CONDITIONS FROM LAST NIGHT AS A
GUIDE HOWEVER THE SKIES ARE CLEARER TONIGHT AND SO MORE FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING SO WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE FORECAST AND CONDITIONS WILL
BE WORST 11-14Z. VFR WILL RETURN AFTER THEN.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...LJ
000
FXUS62 KMFL 202347
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
647 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH
SOUTHWEST TO THE LOXAHATCHEE SWAMP. LEFT OUT VCSH AT KPBI FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME ESE AT
8-9 KTS EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, SE AT 7 KTS ARND 15Z
WITH A SW SEABREEZE DVLPG AROUND 19Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTH (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF IT) TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF OF MEX. SFC TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE E-SE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
NRN GULF/SE U.S. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT STALLING. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RESULT IN RATHER WARM AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AND THIS COULD WORK AGAINST
IT. WL NOT MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH IT SOUTH OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME VARIABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW 6 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 83 69 85 / 10 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 84 71 85 / 10 10 20 30
MIAMI 69 85 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
NAPLES 66 85 67 83 / - 10 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KKEY 202043
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
WATER VAPOR AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM INDICATE A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS
THE CONUS. THERE IS AN AVERAGE 75 TO 100 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC TO ACROSS OLD MEXICO...SOUTH
TEXAS...THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO
WEST TEXAS. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE SOUTHERN WIDTH OF THIS
FAST STREAM OF UPPER FLOW AT 250 MB WITH AMPLE BROKEN DECKS OF
CIRRUS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVERHEAD ATTM.
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE SURFACE AND MARINE
OBSERVATIONS AS OF 200 PM...DETAIL THE CENTER OF A RATHER EXPANSIVE
NEAR 1025 MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THAT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE IT IS
ALMOST STATIONARY. TO THE WEST...A WEAK NEAR 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST.
.FORECASTS...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A RATHER PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAIN
IN PLACE AS WE ENTER THE LATER PART OF AUTUMN. THE
12Z...GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF MOVE THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AS IT DAMPENS INTO A WEAK IMPULSE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE NET AFFECT OF THIS IS TO KEEP VERY DRY MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS OVERHEAD OF THE KEYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORMALLY THIN
LEVELS OF CIRRUS THAT WILL OSCILLATE IN SKY COVERAGE THRU MONDAY
NIGHT.
EXTENDED...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...TUESDAY THRU
FRIDAY...ALL THE ABOVE MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DIVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AS IMPULSES CARVE OUT A DEEP MID
AND UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST....WITH
THIS TROUGHING BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ALLOWING
THE TRANSPORT OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SOUTHWARD
TO THE KEYS WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW.
.AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...A WARMER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
ALLOW FOR THE REINTRODUCTION OF INCREASED HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE KEYS IN LATE NOVEMBER. 12Z ECMWF
AND GFS MOVE THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY...BUT A WEAK
ATTENDANT TROUGH PRESENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE KEYS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
VERY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE 12Z GFS AND
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) REMAINING
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS WITHIN THE SURFACE TO 700 MB LAYERS OF THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE KEYS...WITH 12Z NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50.
EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH
NORTH OF THE KEYS IS INDICATED TO HANG UP NEAR THE KEYS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND GFS DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE
WAVES OR AREAS OF LOWER PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING TO OVER
2.00 INCHES FOR THE...SO HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW THE NUMERICAL MOS #S RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOST LIKELY
SWING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE KEYS WITH MUCH DRYER...COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK VERY GOOD THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MID
CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH SOME
PATCHES OF CIRRUS EXPECTED ABOVE THAT BETWEEN FL 200-250. SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 74 83 75 83 74/ 05 05 10 20 20
MARATHON 73 83 75 83 73/ 05 05 10 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS/AVIATION............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE...............04
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR..............HOVORKA
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 202011
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE NEW 12Z NAM/GFS RUNS...THEY BOTH INDICATE INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW/FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM SW TO NE. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NWRN GULF JUST OFF THE CENTRAL TX COAST WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. RECENTLY ANIMATED VAPOR
LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE OVER WESTERN TX SLOWLY TRACKING EAST. THE GFS HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE FEATURES WHILE THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
JUST OFF TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION IN THIS PACKAGE. TONIGHT...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST BY DAYBREAK AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL COME BETWEEN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE
WITH RESPECT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORMATION IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULTING IMPACTS ON THE PATTERN FURTHER
NORTH. PURELY FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WILL NOT BE DEVIATING MUCH
FROM THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE FORECAST IS OF
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN
THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO IN ITS WAKE
WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OR WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING WED/THU. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ON
THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST GRIDS WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS AND KEEPING
THE MAIN INFLUENCES TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF BRINGS THE MOISTURE FURTHER
NORTH AND WOULD SET UP A WET PATTERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GFS/ECMWF THEN BOTH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A PERIOD OR TWO WITH CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE
SATURDAY NIGHT HOURS. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA WITH MODERATE WEST WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RELAX.
&&
.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NWRN GULF...MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THIS DEVELOPING LOW AND WARM FRONT BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY WILL BEGIN TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING MID MORNING AT DHN AND PFN...AND VCSH
AT TLH. LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 51 71 58 73 51 / 10 60 80 20 10
PANAMA CITY 53 70 60 73 52 / 20 80 80 20 10
DOTHAN 47 65 54 69 49 / 10 80 80 20 10
ALBANY 48 66 54 68 51 / 0 70 80 40 10
VALDOSTA 51 72 58 72 53 / 0 60 80 50 10
CROSS CITY 51 75 61 76 56 / 10 40 80 40 10
APALACHICOLA 55 71 61 73 55 / 20 60 80 20 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GIBBS/MROCZKA/WATSON
000
FXUS62 KMLB 201934
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
234 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE.
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. WILL KEEP AREAS OVER LAND DRY.
MAIN CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG FORMATION. DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MORE OF A PATCHY
VARIETY NEAR THE COAST. AS WITH THIS PAST MORNING SUSPECT A FEW
AREAS WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE MORNING TO CLEAR OUT ON SAT. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SPOTS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BE OVERRUN BY SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. SOME PARTIAL CLOUD COVER
(STRATOCU/CIRRUS) MAY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S (INTERIOR) TO LOWER 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
SAT...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON POPS DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES JUST YET TO THE UPCOMING FORECAST
PACKAGE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE (30%) FROM THE ORLANDO
METRO NORTHWARD AND TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) SOUTHWARD TOWARD
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AHEAD
WHERE BOTH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE HIGHEST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AFTER THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURN-OFF INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO...APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK HIGHEST OVER NORTH FLORIDA
AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND ALONG A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A WEAK MOISTURE BAND WILL CROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS 30-40% THROUGH
THE DAY. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
ENOUGH EXISTS TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
MON-THURS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE MODELS
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS WILL OCCUR.
LATEST GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND
SOUTHERN CENTRAL FLORIDA/SOUTH FLORIDA MON-WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS
FARTHER NORTH WITH A WETTER SOLUTION OVER OUR AREA. WILL STICK
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW WHICH FOLLOWED THE GFS
GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA NEAR THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH MID WEEK. IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN POPS
MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN AREAS FARTHER NORTH AS WELL FOR MID-
WEEK. FRONT LOOKS TO GET FINALLY SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY DEEP U/L
TROUGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CROSSING THE
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 DURING THE DAY AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. SHOULD THEN SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
COOLING INTO LATE WEEK IF FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR INTO EARLY EVENING BUT FEAR KISM/KLEE MAY BEGIN TO SEE VSBY
REDUCTIONS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MANY TAF SITES ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SEE IFR/MVFR CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. SOME DENSE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
WHERE CLOUD COVER (STRATOCU/CIRRUS) DOESN`T INHIBIT FORMATION.
MORE PATCHY VARIETY OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ALONG THE
COAST. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LATE BURN-OFF OVER THE INTERIOR AS
EXPERIENCED THIS PAST MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SAT...N/NE FLOW 5-10 KTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 10
KTS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 15 KTS AT TIMES WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND INVOF WDLY SCT CONVECTION. SEA HEIGHTS MAINLY
3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT OFFSHORE MAINLY IN AN EAST/NORTHEAST
SWELL. SWELL PERIODS CONTINUE AROUND 10 SECONDS. IF THIS CONTINUES
WILL EXTEND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OFFSHORE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM.
SUN-WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S/SE SUNDAY AS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO GA/SC. THIS LOW
WILL DRAG A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IT STALLING
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS BELOW 15 KTS. SWELLS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO AROUND 6
FT OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 60 79 65 81 / 10 30 30 30
MCO 61 82 65 82 / 10 30 30 30
MLB 64 81 68 82 / 10 20 20 30
VRB 65 82 68 83 / 10 20 20 20
LEE 60 82 65 81 / 10 30 30 40
SFB 60 83 65 82 / 10 30 30 30
ORL 63 83 66 82 / 10 30 30 30
FPR 65 83 67 83 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VAN DYKE
000
FXUS62 KMFL 201924
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTH (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF IT) TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF OF MEX. SFC TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE E-SE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
NRN GULF/SE U.S. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT STALLING. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RESULT IN RATHER WARM AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AND THIS COULD WORK AGAINST
IT. WL NOT MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH IT SOUTH OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME VARIABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW 6 FEET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 83 69 85 / 10 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 84 71 85 / 10 10 20 30
MIAMI 69 85 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
NAPLES 66 85 67 83 / - 10 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KJAX 201841
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
141 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...
...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...
.SHORT TERM...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA WITH MOISTURE AXIS
RESPONSIBLE FOR FOG THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. WITH THE RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THIS
MOISTURE AXIS HAS ONCE AGAIN TAKEN A POSITION ALONG OUR IMMEDIATE
COAST AND HAS RESULTED IN SCT CU DEVELOPMENT. TO THE
WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WHICH
LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER FOR NE FL AND SE GA THIS WEEKEND.
FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN
TIER...FOG TOOLS HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE FOR THIS CYCLE.
STILL...SOME INDICATIONS OF PATCHY DENSE CONDITIONS FROM THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PLOTS AND LATEST NUMERIC GUIDANCE.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT GRID SET AND ONLY LIMITED CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL THE FASTEST...THE SREF THE SLOWEST...AND THE GS
ENSEMBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO THE LEAN TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS
JUST LOW END SCT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THROUGH 00Z SUN. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN MOISTURE CORE WILL PUSH
INTO THE GA PORTION AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
WITH HIGH END LIKELY POPS. BY 12Z SUN...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY
FOR THE AREA AND THE INTRODUCTION OF SCT TSRA TO THE GRIDS.
AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH LOW NOW PROGGED TO REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE REGION AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THROUGH SUN...DYNAMICS
ARE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND THE GA PORTION WHERE 06 KM SHEAR WILL BE THE
HIGHEST. 0-1KM HODOGRAPHS ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH
OF THE AREA. LIMITING FACTOR AS USUAL WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH
MODELS SHOWING A MAX 500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0 TO -2 LIS. GOOD
DIFFLUENT SIGNATURE ALOFT COULD HELP OVERCOME THESE DEFICIENCIES
AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN LATEST HWO.
.LONG TERM...ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO
COOL DOWN IN STORE. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR MOISTURE
WILL SURGE AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND WILL LEAVE GRIDS WITH
NIL POPS BASED ON LATEST GFS RUN. DEEPER US EAST COAST TROUGH AND
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS IS SHRINKING AND EXPECTED TO
BYPASS SSI THIS AFTN. INCREASING CIRRUS EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
LOW PRES SYSTEM THEN INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS SATURDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNING TO NE FL WILL MORE LIKELY BRING LOW STRATUS TOWARD
MORNING THAN IFR VIS. GNV IS FAVORED SITE FOR FOG AND WILL INCLUDE
MVFR BTWN 09Z-13Z. EXPECT CIGS ABOVE 3KFTS AT MORNING THEN MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTN AS SHRA MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS ARE RUNNING 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS NEAR 5 FT ARE BEING
REPORTED IN FL WATERS WITH PERIODS APPROX 10 SEC. WILL CONTINUE
HEADLINING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS. WINDS WILL
VEER TO NE TONIGHT THEN S BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW
PRES SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO S GA BTWN
12Z-18Z SUN. THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST N OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU EARLY MON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO N BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 48 70 54 70 / 10 30 60 60
SSI 55 70 60 71 / 0 20 50 70
JAX 54 73 60 75 / 10 30 50 60
SGJ 59 74 64 77 / 0 30 50 50
GNV 53 76 61 76 / 10 30 50 60
OCF 56 78 61 79 / 10 30 40 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
DEESE/TRABERT/KEEGAN
000
FXUS62 KTBW 201829
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
129 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM THE U.S. PLAINS TO NORTHERN
MEXICO AND CONTAINS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES
SOUTH OVER MUCH OF FL...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE STRETCHING BACK TO THE TX COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT AND SAT. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...LATE NIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHER ODDS ACROSS THE NORTH.
MEANWHILE THE PLAINS TROUGH WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION
HAS TREKKED EAST...TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SAT
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN OUT EARLY SUN AND LIFT UP
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE FL
PANHANDLE AND REACHES THE GA/FL COAST LATE SUN...WITH A FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EAST GULF.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ENOUGH ENERGY OVER THE AREA AS THE
LOW SURFACE VEERS WINDS TO SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN POPS...50 TO 20 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT
NIGHT AND THEN 40-30 SUN AS THE UPPER ENERGY STARTS TO MOVE AWAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER-
STORMS SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
WILL WARM BETWEEN SAT AND SUN DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BUT HIGHS WILL DIP FROM SAT TO SUN AS A RESULT OF THE SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT EARLY
THEN DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD. WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVING TO THE
NE THE LATE WEEKEND SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SLOW AND MODELS KEEP SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOW STALLING FRONT OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT BACK NWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES KEEPS GENERAL LONG UPPER UPPER TROUGHINESS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP 10 TO 20 POPS FOR THE AREA WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO COME
IN LINE MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP WITH INCREASING MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE. BY MID WEEK ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST...BUT SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WHILE UPPER LEVEL PLOTS ARE
MORE IN LINE WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS MOST
AREAS AT DIFFERENT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD AND
ALONG SYSTEM. BEHIND THE SYSTEM LARGE AND COOL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR A COOL DOWN TO END THE
PERIOD. TEMPS TO GENERALLY HOLD AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES REST OF TODAY. FOR TONIGHT
AGAIN EXPECT WIDESPREAD BR TO FORM AFTER SUNSET WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THEN AREAS OF DENSE FG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM AROUND 08Z THROUGH
14Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST...AND THEN SHIFTS EAST
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LOW
MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXITING THE EAST GULF. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF
COAST MON AND MOVES BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH WED. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA TROUGH THE MUCH OF
PERIOD AS THE DIRECTION VEERS. SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15 KT AND THEN APPROACH 20 KT LATE IN THE
WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN FL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 64 82 68 80 / 5 20 40 40
FMY 65 84 69 83 / 5 20 20 30
GIF 64 83 66 82 / 5 20 30 40
SRQ 63 81 67 81 / 5 20 30 40
BKV 58 82 63 80 / 5 30 40 40
SPG 67 80 70 79 / 5 20 40 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS
000
FXUS62 KTBW 201825
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
125 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
...ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM THE U.S. PLAINS TO NORTHERN
MEXICO AND CONTAINS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES
SOUTH OVER MUCH OF FL...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE STRETCHING BACK TO THE TX COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT AND SAT. THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...LATE NIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHER ODDS ACROSS THE NORTH.
MEANWHILE THE PLAINS TROUGH WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION
HAS TREKKED EAST...TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SAT
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN OUT EARLY SUN AND LIFT UP
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE FL
PANHANDLE AND REACHES THE GA/FL COAST LATE SUN...WITH A FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EAST GULF.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ENOUGH ENERGY OVER THE AREA AS THE
LOW SURFACE VEERS WINDS TO SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN POPS...50 TO 20 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT
NIGHT AND THEN 40-30 SUN AS THE UPPER ENERGY STARTS TO MOVE AWAY.
HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER-
STORMS SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
WILL WARM BETWEEN SAT AND SUN DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BUT HIGHS WILL DIP FROM SAT TO SUN AS A RESULT OF THE SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT EARLY
THEN DIVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD. WITH UPPER SUPPORT MOVING TO THE
NE THE LATE WEEKEND SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SLOW AND MODELS KEEP SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOW STALLING FRONT OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT BACK NWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES KEEPS GENERAL LONG UPPER UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP 10 TO 20 POPS FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN LINE
MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP WITH INCREASING MEAN LAYER MOISTURE. BY MID
WEEK ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST...BUT SIGNIFICANT
MODELS DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WHILE UPPER LEVEL PLOTS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS AT DIFFERENT TIMES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD AND ALONG SYSTEM. BEHIND THE SYSTEM
LARGE AND COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR A
COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD. TEMPS TO GENERALLY HOLD AROUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN DROP
BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES REST OF TODAY. FOR TONIGHT
AGAIN EXPECT WIDESPREAD BR TO FORM AFTER SUNSET WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THEN AREAS OF DENSE FG TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM AROUND 08Z THROUGH
14Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST...AND THEN SHIFTS EAST
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTRAL MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE LOW
MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXITING THE EAST GULF. HIGH THEN BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF COAST MON
AND MOVES BY TO THE NORTH THROUGH WED. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA TROUGH THE MUCH OF PERIOD AS
THE DIRECTION VEERS. SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 15 KT AND THEN APPROACH 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEK. MARINERS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN FL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 64 82 68 80 / 5 20 40 40
FMY 65 84 69 83 / 5 20 20 30
GIF 64 83 66 82 / 5 20 30 40
SRQ 63 81 67 81 / 5 20 30 40
BKV 58 82 63 80 / 5 30 40 40
SPG 67 80 70 79 / 5 20 40 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 201729
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1229 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXCEPT BECOMING NW AT KAPF. SPEEDS WILL BE 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BECOME ESE 5-10 KT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
NOCTURNAL VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR ZONES. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT FORMATION OF EAST COAST
LAND BREEZE WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM SPREADING
FURTHER INLAND THAN THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
OVERALL...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE GRADUAL WARMING/MOISTENING TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE EAST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEVELOPING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. GIVEN
THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES INCREASING
TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES/...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES...BUT FEEL HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IN VICINITY OF STRONGER NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG TEXAS COASTAL FRONT...WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDING DOWNSTREAM FROM PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CUTOFF LOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN NORTHEAST. A WARMER AND EVEN MORE HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN...BUT CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. HOWEVER...WILL
DEFER HIGHER POPS TO SUNDAY...AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS PWAT
VALUES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MAV/MET
BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY...
AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST COAST.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT
TRAILING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE SURFACE CYCLONE OPENS
INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW MOISTURE RESULTING IN PERIODIC
EPISODES OF SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN EVEN STRONGER UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN CARVING OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON OR IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THANKSGIVING DAY.
MARINE...
A LIGHT 1-3 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
CONTRIBUTING TO SEAS OF 2-5 FEET OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...AND
A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN TO
EAST-NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK...BUT REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 70 83 70 / 20 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 73 84 73 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI 85 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 83 66 85 69 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KMLB 201506
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...ELEVATED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY...
CURRENT-TODAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO A CONVERGENCE ZONE
CONTINUE OFF THE EAST COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTH THROUGH JUPITER
INLET. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT TO ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN.
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOG. CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING
AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO REVEAL
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WILL
UPDATE ZONES AND HWO SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING.
TONIGHT (PREVIOUS)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGGED TO NOSE DOWN INTO
THE AREA SO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN HUNG UP
OFFSHORE. SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
OVERRUN BY SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE
STRATUS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE MORE DENSE FOG TOO. HAVE NOT HIT THIS
TOO HARD YET IN THE GRIDS SINCE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
(STRATOCU/CIRRUS) WILL PROBABLY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR IN SOME
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...STUBBORN IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO FOG THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
EVER SLOWLY GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN. CONSIDERABLE STRATUS AND A CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
EARLY SAT MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS BUT MAY BE 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
STREAM. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 5-6 FT
FOR THE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR OUTER LEGS MAINLY SEBASTIAN INLET
NORTHWARD.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/DVD
000
FXUS62 KJAX 201446
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
946 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHED SOUTH AND WITH INCREASED MIXING
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISPERSED BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NE FL THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUED BY FOG PREVIOUS DAYS. THE SW PORTION
FROM GNV TO OCALA REMAIN THE SPOT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY...AND THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. SEA FOG
ROLLING S ALONG THE SC/GA COAST COULD IMPACT COASTAL SE GA BY NOON
AS THE SEA FOG IS NOT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
N OF AREA IS IN CONTROL TODAY AND EXPECT LIGHT NELY WINDS BY AFTN
WITH WARM TEMPS ARND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO. ENJOY TODAY BECAUSE CONDS
WILL DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...WILL AMEND GNV FOR MVFR CONDS BTWN 15Z AND 16Z THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR AS FOG DISSIPATES. AN AREA OF SEA FOG IS MOVING S
ALONG THE GA COAST AND WILL WATCH SSI FOR POSSIBLE INTRUSION ONTO
LAND.
&&
.MARINE...A NLY SURGE INCREASED WINDS TO NEAR 15 KT OVERNIGHT BUT
ARE SLOWLY DECREASING TO 10-15 KT RANGE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARND
3-5 FT WITH 10-11 SEC PERIODS HAVE BUMPED COMBINED SEAS TO 4-6 FT
FOR OFFSHORE LEGS REQUIRING A SCEC HEADLINE TODAY. SWELLS WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 50 69 57 / 0 10 30 70
SSI 72 57 69 62 / 0 10 20 60
JAX 74 56 73 61 / 0 10 30 60
SGJ 73 61 75 65 / 0 10 30 50
GNV 76 56 77 61 / 0 10 40 50
OCF 77 58 79 62 / 0 10 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT//WALKER
000
FXUS62 KKEY 201430
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
WATER VAPOR AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS INDICATE A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OF THE JETSTREAM ACROSS THE
CONUS. THERE IS AN AVERAGE 75 TO 100 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
MOVING FROM THE BAJA TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THEN
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXITING EAST OF JACKSONVILLE.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EVOLVING WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE SOUTHERN WIDTH
OF THIS FAST UPPER FLOW WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD ABOVE 25000
FEET.
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE SURFACE AND MARINE
OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A LATE FALL SEASON NEAR 1028 MB COOL OR CHILLY
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
AHEAD OF THAT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE IT IS ALMOST STATIONARY AND
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TO DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURE OFF OF
THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A FAIRLY
DRY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 13000 FEET.
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY OVER THE KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NOW APPROACHING THE LESS COMFORTABLE 70
DEGREE MARK. WINDS ALONG THE REEF ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 6
AND 13 KNOTS...WHILE ISLAND SENSORS ARE REGISTERING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...(700-200 MB) ALL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LARGE SCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM ARE INDICATING
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE STATE OF
TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE NET AFFECT OF THIS DOWNSTREAM
(OVER THE KEYS) WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERMITTENT PASSAGE OF CIRRUS.
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB. BECAUSE OF CHANGES
ALOFT...MODELS POINT TO THE INDUCEMENT OF CYCLOGENESIS BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AS THIS BEGINS...THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR JUST TO NORTH OF THE KEYS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME STATIONARY. BUT BY THE END OF TODAY...WINDS IN THE
SURFACE TO 700 MB PORTION OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN ONLY
SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AND SLACKEN A
BIT. ONLY OF THIS IS THAT IT MAY CONSTITUTE A LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT
TO UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.MARINE...
AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES JUST A BIT SOUTHWARD BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED CU BETWEEN FL040 AND FL060 MAY OCCASIONALLY CROSS THE
ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BREEZES WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHEAST CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE......04
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR.....FUENTES
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 201411
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
911 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VISIBILTIES
ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 1 TO 4 MILES BUT A COUPLE OF SPOTS ARE
STILL ABOUT 1/2 MILE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND PLAN TO
LET THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EXPIRES ON TIME...AT 930
AM. OTHER WISE THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL UPDATE AROUND 10
AM JUST TO REMOVE THE FIRST PERIOD FOG WORDING.
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS NOW BURNING OFF AND LIFTING
WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
THAT...VFR ALL SITE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AGAIN EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
FOR WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER 08Z.
&&
.MARINE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTH-NE WINDS 5-10KT TODAY.
NEXT ISSUANCE OUT AFTER 930 WITH THE ONLY CHANGE BEING TO DROP
THE FOG ON THE BAY.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS
000
FXUS62 KTAE 201356
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
856 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO THE NORTH WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS STREAMING OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST...CYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS CONTINUES JUST OFF THE CENTRAL TX COAST. AN
MCS DEVELOPED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND
STILL LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING. COULD
BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE DAY
WITH THE MID-TO-UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...A
GENERAL NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST OVER THE NRN GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NWRN GULF...MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AS THIS DEVELOPING LOW
AND WARM FRONT BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD OR LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST OR AROUND THE PFN
TERMINAL.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GIBBS/WATSON
000
FXUS62 KMFL 201121
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
621 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. APF AND TMB HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING FOG, BUT IT COULD OCCUR AT ANY TERMINAL. A FEW SHRA
WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EAST COAST THIS
MORNING, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND IMPACT LITTLE IF ANY SO
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
NOCTURNAL VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR ZONES. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT FORMATION OF EAST COAST
LAND BREEZE WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM SPREADING
FURTHER INLAND THAN THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
OVERALL...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE GRADUAL WARMING/MOISTENING TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE EAST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEVELOPING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. GIVEN
THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES INCREASING
TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES/...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES...BUT FEEL HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IN VICINITY OF STRONGER NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG TEXAS COASTAL FRONT...WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDING DOWNSTREAM FROM PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CUTOFF LOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN NORTHEAST. A WARMER AND EVEN MORE HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN...BUT CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. HOWEVER...WILL
DEFER HIGHER POPS TO SUNDAY...AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS PWAT
VALUES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MAV/MET
BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY...
AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST COAST.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT
TRAILING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE SURFACE CYCLONE OPENS
INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW MOISTURE RESULTING IN PERIODIC
EPISODES OF SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN EVEN STRONGER UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN CARVING OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON OR IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THANKSGIVING DAY.
MARINE...
A LIGHT 1-3 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
CONTRIBUTING TO SEAS OF 2-5 FEET OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...AND
A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN TO
EAST-NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK...BUT REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 70 83 70 / 20 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 73 84 73 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI 85 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 83 66 85 69 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KMFL 201007
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
507 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
NOCTURNAL VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR ZONES. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT FORMATION OF EAST COAST
LAND BREEZE WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM SPREADING
FURTHER INLAND THAN THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
OVERALL...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE GRADUAL WARMING/MOISTENING TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE EAST
DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEVELOPING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. GIVEN
THE SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES INCREASING
TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES/...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZES...BUT FEEL HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...IN VICINITY OF STRONGER NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG TEXAS COASTAL FRONT...WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDING DOWNSTREAM FROM PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CUTOFF LOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN NORTHEAST. A WARMER AND EVEN MORE HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY...AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS...
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN...BUT CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. HOWEVER...WILL
DEFER HIGHER POPS TO SUNDAY...AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS PWAT
VALUES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MAV/MET
BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY...
AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST COAST.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT
TRAILING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE SURFACE CYCLONE OPENS
INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN NORTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW MOISTURE RESULTING IN PERIODIC
EPISODES OF SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN EVEN STRONGER UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN CARVING OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON OR IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A LIGHT 1-3 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
CONTRIBUTING TO SEAS OF 2-5 FEET OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...AND
A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN TO
EAST-NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK...BUT REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 70 83 70 / 20 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 73 84 73 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI 85 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 83 66 85 69 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KTAE 200859
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
359 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 04 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM SOUTH FL TO THE NC COAST...AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WAS DOMINATED BY AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TN. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
DATA SHOWED ONE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA
AS ANOTHER DEVELOPS OVER TX. THIS TX SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE TX
COAST TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY
AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OCCURS
OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLOUDS
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TIGHTENS UP NEAR
THE LA COAST AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO ITS EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE BEST
PHASING OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA. PERHAPS THE MAIN QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS THE GREATEST
SBCAPE...LIFT...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE GFS INSTABILITY AND
KINEMATIC FIELDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ARE NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
THE NAM...BUT STILL SUGGEST AT LEAST A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. ITS FORECAST FOR 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR IS ABOUT
45 KT...20 TO 30 KT FROM 0-1KM. THE BEST SBCAPE (1000-1500 J/KG) IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT THE COAST AND IN THE GULF...BUT SBCAPE UP TO
500 J/KG DOES MAKE IT TO THE FL-GA BORDER. THE NAM VALUES ARE ALL
HIGHER THAN THE GFS...BECAUSE IT FORECASTS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM (WHICH CAUSES STRONGER SHEAR AND MORE MARITIME TROPICAL
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR TO BE ADVECTED INLAND. THE 00 UTC ECMWF FORECASTS
A WEAKER LOW AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A
MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT AS WEAKER KINEMATICS WOULD COMBINE WITH MUCH
LESS INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY WE ARE NOT CALLING FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE DETERMINISTIC PORTION OF THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT WE WILL MENTION IN IT IN PROBABILISTIC TERMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY) GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND RESULTING IMPACTS ON THE PATTERN FURTHER NORTH. PURELY
FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WILL NOT BE DEVIATING MUCH FROM THE
GFS/MEX GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER... DURING THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME...THE FORECAST IS OF LOWER
THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN
THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO IN ITS WAKE
WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DOES LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OR WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING WED/THU. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ON
THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST GRIDS WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS AND KEEPING
THE MAIN INFLUENCES TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF BRINGS THE MOISTURE FURTHER
NORTH AND WOULD SET UP A WET PATTERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GFS/ECMWF THEN BOTH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS WITH
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT KVLD TOWARD SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL SEE
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A BUILDING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR AREAS OF LOWER CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
SATURDAY. DURING SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASING RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS A GOOD BET.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNTIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. THERE COULD BE
MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SURF
AT SOME OF THE BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COULD REACH 6 FT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP NEAR 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL SQUELCH FAVORABLE BURN CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 72 52 72 60 74 / 0 10 50 70 30
PANAMA CITY 70 55 70 61 69 / 0 10 60 70 20
DOTHAN 69 49 67 55 68 / 0 10 60 70 20
ALBANY 70 50 68 58 71 / 0 10 50 70 30
VALDOSTA 73 52 72 60 75 / 0 10 30 70 50
CROSS CITY 75 53 77 62 76 / 0 10 30 60 50
APALACHICOLA 70 56 72 61 72 / 0 10 50 70 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MROCZKA
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 200855
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY-TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED VICINITY OF
THE GULF STREAM AND THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE IT HAS GENERATED. HAVE INCLUDED SMALL COASTAL
POPS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST SINCE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED
ASHORE.
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOG. RH VALUES ARE NEAR 100 PERCENT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF FOG
AND PATCHY STRATUS. CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD NOT
BE A STRONG INHIBITING FACTOR. CANAVERAL PROFILER SHOWING BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WAS VEERING TO ONSHORE IN THE
SOUTH. SOME STRATOCU SHOULD INHIBIT FOG THERE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING. ONCE
THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE PARTLY
SUNNY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGGED TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE AREA
SO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN HUNG UP OFFSHORE.
SHALLOW LAYER OF LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE OVERRUN BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE STRATUS.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE MORE DENSE FOG TOO. HAVE NOT HIT THIS TOO
HARD YET IN THE GRIDS SINCE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
(STRATOCU/CIRRUS) WILL PROBABLY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR IN SOME
AREAS.
SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SHIFT THIS LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH
INTO GA/SC THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SW OVER THE MS VALLEY
QUICKLY LIFTS TOWARD THE NE. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY LATE SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK HIGHEST OVER NORTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND
ALONG A WEAK SEMI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AROUND 30% FROM
ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THIS BOUNDARY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FARTHER SOUTH. A WEAK MOISTURE BAND WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL KEEP POPS 30-40%
THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT ENOUGH EXISTS TO AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SHOWER BAND.
MON-THURS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE MODELS
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THIS WILL OCCUR.
LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE THE BOUNDARY LINGERING AROUND SOUTHERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA/SOUTH FLORIDA MON-WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
A MORE WET SOLUTION. WILL FOLLOW THE 00Z GFS GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME
FRAME AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT. MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY LOW BUT SUFFICIENT FOR THE
ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
NEAR THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MID WEEK.
FRONT LOOKS TO GET FINALLY SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY DEEP U/L TROUGH
BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CROSSING THE EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 DURING THE DAY AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. SHOULD THEN SEE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING INTO LATE
WEEK IF FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...NEAR SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF LIFR
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. VFR AFTER 15Z. CONSIDERABLE STRATUS AND A CHANCE
FOR DENSE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY SAT MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS BUT MAY BE 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
STREAM. THIS...ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST SWELL...WILL PROMPT AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE GULF STREAM.
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO N FLORIDA SATURDAY WITH WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS QUICKLY BECOMING ONSHORE BY THE AFT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE S/SE INTO SUNDAY AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO GA/SC. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK
FRONT OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY WITH IT STALLING NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF
THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SWELLS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE
THROUGH SAT/SAT NIGHT AND THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 78 61 78 65 / 10 10 30 30
MCO 79 61 82 65 / 10 10 30 30
MLB 79 64 81 68 / 10 10 20 20
VRB 80 65 83 67 / 10 10 20 20
LEE 79 60 81 65 / 10 10 30 30
SFB 79 61 82 66 / 10 10 30 30
ORL 79 62 82 66 / 10 10 30 30
FPR 81 64 83 67 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KJAX 200854
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM (FRI-SUN)...AS WINDS ARE BACKING TO NNW AND INCREASING...
THE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS LIFTING WITH MOST STATIONS
ACROSS NE FL REPORTING 3-5 SM VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS 500-1000FT.
ACROSS SE GA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH
CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG TIL MID MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY WITH SCT/BKN HI CLDS STREAMING OUT OF GOMEX AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM TO MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE
SOUTH STARTS TO LIFT NORTH. THE MAV IS INDICATING DENSE FOG TONIGHT
BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL OPT FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT FOR NOW.
SAT/SUN...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS MAKES SATURDAY
A TRANSITION DAY WITH LOW POPS IN THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO
SCATTERED POPS BY AFTERNOON...WITH BULK OF PCP SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA...WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL BUT MAY POSSIBLY
HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS ESP ACROSS SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO SE GA SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA
LATE SUN. NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN AS
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN ZONAL IN STORM SYSTEMS WAKE. STILL LOOKING AT
ANOTHER WAVE FORMING BY MID WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND RE-ENFORCING HIGH BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPS FOR THANKSGIVING.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. ADVECTION OF SOME DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER NLY WINDS ARE LIMITING FOG DENSITY AS HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH SSI...CRG...GNV NOW VFR BUT
REMAINING TAF SITES ARE MVFR TO LIFR. THREAT OF IFR AND MVFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z BEFORE MIXING AND DAYTIME
HEATING HELP TO DISPERSE THE FOG AND STRATUS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CU EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. PRELIM
INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT MVFR VIS OR IFR CIGS POSSIBLE 06Z-12Z SAT
FOR OUR FL TAF SITES AS FLOW VEERS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
AGAIN.
&&
.MARINE...A NLY SURGE STARTED OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS A
FEW HOURS AGO WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10G14 KT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS
AROUND 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS OF ABOUT 10 SECONDS ARE NOTED AGAIN. WITH
WINDS INCREASING A BIT TO NEAR 15 KT LATE TODAY...SEAS MAY NEAR 6 FT
BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST SO WILL LIKELY HEADLINE AN SCEC FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO NE TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY ELY ON
SAT AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT INTO S GA BY 12Z-18Z SUN SHIFTING WINDS TO SLY. AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES JUST N OF THE AREA WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BY EARLY MON WITH NWLY FLOW PROBABLY BELOW 20 KT AS THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS ONLY ~1020 MB.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 50 69 57 / 0 10 30 70
SSI 72 57 69 62 / 0 10 20 60
JAX 74 56 73 61 / 0 10 30 60
SGJ 73 61 75 65 / 0 10 30 50
GNV 76 56 77 61 / 0 10 40 50
OCF 77 58 79 62 / 0 10 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/ARS
000
FXUS62 KKEY 200835
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR SERVICE AREA...WITH A BROKEN
BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ON THE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. SURFACE WISE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE POKING DOWN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER TEXAS. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION
PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS IN THE STRAITS INDICATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHER WINDS
ON THE WESTERN STRAITS AND THE GULF WATERS.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL TRACK
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A
VIGOROUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PULLING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. AS THIS LOW MIGRATES UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GRADUAL CHANGES ALOFT...MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE WITH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES TODAY AND
NEAR 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING ON SUNDAY...WILL INSERT 10 PERCENT
POPS BEGINNING SATURDAY WHILE KEEPING ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT. A VEERING EASTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A SPLIT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONTIGUOUS STATES WILL
PREDOMINATE WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS ABOUT 24 HOURS
QUICKER IN DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
KEEPING THAT IN MIND...A STATIONARY FRONT LYING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A WEAK REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SLIPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY AND DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP
INVIGORATE THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE. ACCORDING
TO GFS...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE THANKSGIVING
DAY WHILE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 30
PERCENT INSERTED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURE WISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A TAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTTOM LINE...NO EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE OR ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 6000
FEET MAINLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 82 73 83 75 / 00 00 10 10
MARATHON 81 73 83 75 / 00 00 10 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.................APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....MS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 200729
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
229 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FL
WILL MODIFY INTO A WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE FRI AND THROUGH SAT.
MEANWHILE...TROUGH/MID LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA PULLS
AWAY AND INTO SE CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND ALLOWING FOR SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SE STATES AND THE ATL SEABOARD. A
SHORT WAVE M/L TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISS/AL REGION WITH A
STRONG SFC REFLECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MIGRATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND SENDS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE NE GULF WATERS AND FL SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH ABUNDANT L/L MOISTURE EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE EVENING
AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY
FOG WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG COULD BRING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ALONG MAJOR HIGHWAYS...ESPECIALLY INTERSTATE 4...75 AND
275.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER 80S
INTERIOR/SOUTH.
&&
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ON SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER...MAINLY UP NORTH...UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OFF THE
GA/SC COAST AND WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE
FEATURES...THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING DRY AIR
IN OVER THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY. THIS DRIER AIR WOULD MEAN LESS
CLOUDS AND THEREFORE WARMER TEMPS ON MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA HOWEVER...SO MORE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN
MONDAY (AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MID-WEEK.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL JUST TO OUR SOUTH...HAVE INCLUDED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES. THE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER...AND WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT JUST 20% FOR NOW. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR HIGHS
BY MID-WEEK...MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...TRICKY FOG/LOW CLOUD FORECAST THIS MORNING. NOTHING
SHOWING UP ON ANY OBSERVATIONS YET...BUT SITES TO THE NORTH
REPORTING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT OR BELOW 1000FT. HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO CONDITION FOR THESE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG
(VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR RANGE) THIS MORNING AROUND SUNRISE.
CEILINGS MAY GET PRETTY LOW HOWEVER IF MODEL GUIDANCE PANS OUT.
AFTER SUNRISE...FOG BURNS OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT
CRITERIA TROUGH THE PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE
SATURDAY MAY BRING SURGING WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION.
NEVERTHELESS...MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN FL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 79 64 80 67 / 10 5 20 40
FMY 83 65 83 69 / 10 5 20 20
GIF 81 64 81 66 / 10 5 20 30
SRQ 81 63 80 67 / 10 5 20 30
BKV 80 59 80 64 / 10 5 30 40
SPG 79 67 79 70 / 10 5 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...22/AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...23/MCNATT
000
FXUS62 KMFL 200539
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER CURRENTLY THERE ARE A FEW SHRA AND CEILINGS OF 3 TO 6KFT
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAND
BREEZE CREATING AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST,
BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE AREAS
OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS, AND APF AND TMB ARE THE
TWO TERMINALS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF LOWER VIS, BUT THIS
TOO WILL DISSIPATE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. DURING FRI EXPECT A GENERAL
NE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST, BUT A SEA BREEZE AT APF WILL PUSH
THE WINDS TO A NW DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE NEAR-SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE METRO
AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES AS THE DRAINAGE FLOW SETS
UP OVER THESE AREAS. SO WILL HAVE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR REST OF THE NIGHT HOURS.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.
LATE LAST NIGHT FOG DID DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE CWA
WITH SOME ISOLATED INTERIOR AREAS SEEING DENSE FOG. THE FAR INLAND
METRO AREAS ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST ALSO SAW SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
THE CONDITIONS ARE THE SAME THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS
LAST NIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S THIS EVENING COMPARE TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LAST
NIGHT. SO FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS. SO HAVE UP THE
FOG WORDING TO WIDESPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND INTRODUCE
FOG WORDING FOR THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.
THE VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE 1/4 OF A
MILE OVER THE WIDESPREAD AREA...DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS WORKING
INTO THE CWA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SO WILL NOT ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE VISIBILITIES AND DECIDE IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
MODERATE RISK OF RISK CURRENTS TONIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH
CURRENT TREND SEEN ON RADAR, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL COME CLOSE TO
KPBI, KFLL AND KFXE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
VCSH. WINDS WILL START DRAINING FROM THE NNW LATER TONIGHT EAST
TERMINALS (IN FACT KPBI IS ALREADY DRAINING). A NNE DRAINING WIND
WILL START ABT 03Z AT KAPF. FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS, A NE
SEABREEZE WILL START ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, A NW SEABREEZE ARND
18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL COMPLETELY LOOSE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MODELS STILL SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER NRN MEXICO/S. TEXAS RIDING EAST ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET STREAM FRIDAY AND REACHING THE LOWER MS REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE EFFECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL NOT BE FELT OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY LITTLE PRECIP SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
THEREFORE IN POPS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE ONLY TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND STALLING MONDAY/TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE RIDING EAST AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...NONE OF THESE IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE THURSDAY
KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IS
EXPECTED.
MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PACKAGE AND SO NO ADVISORY OR CAUTION STATEMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD. SMALL NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS CREATING MINOR HAZARDS MAINLY
IN THE SURF ZONE AND INLET OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RIP
CURRENTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED WITH RH VALUES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 69 84 72 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 72 84 72 / 10 10 20 20
MIAMI 83 72 84 72 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 83 67 84 68 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KMLB 200251
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND A FEW ARE MAKING IT ONSHORE THE TREASURE COAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WILL ADD A LOW COASTAL POP IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOG FORMATION LATE NIGHT. WILL TWEAK GRIDS A
LITTLE TO INDICATE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC OVER THE
NORTH/INTERIOR WITH BL WINDS DECREASING LATE AND SOME BREAKS IN THE
HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME LOW STRATUS/MVFR CIGS ALREADY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR
KLEE AND ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AFT 20/08Z.
AREAS FROM ~KLEE-KSFB-KDAB MAY BE MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH REDUCTIONS
NEAR SUNRISE FRI. MOST AREAS VFR BY 14Z.
&&
.MARINE...WILL EXPAND SHRA AREA A BIT OVER SOUTHERN MARINE LEGS FOR
OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS.
(PREVIOUS) OVERNIGHT-FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER GEORGIA BUILDS
NORTHEAST. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY COMPONENT TO
THE SEAS. GUIDANCE INDICATING OFFSHORE SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FEET
MOSTLY BEYOND 40 MILES OF SHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMPT
AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL PASS
ALONG TO FOLLOWING SHIFTS TO REVISIT PUTTING ANY HEADLINES IN THE
OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E/SE SAT AS AREAS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF GULF LOW THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS. WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND PRODUCE A BIT STRONGER
S/SW WINDS SUNDAY...UP TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH. SWELLS WILL
KEEP SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE SAT THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GLITTO/BRAGAW
000
FXUS62 KTAE 200249
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
949 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR NEW
ORLEANS. NO MUCH MOVEMENT EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH OVERNIGHT. THIS
SETUP SHOULD YIELD COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...WHERE UPPER 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...JUST HAVE SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO GRIDS NEEDED THIS EVENING AND NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC
FORECAST PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE VLD
TERMINAL COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF FOG CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS DUE TO ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR...POSSIBLY
BRINGING CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY. ALSO...THE TLH TERMINAL MAY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE FROM A NEARBY FIRE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WATERS
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS HAS NOT OCCURRED
YET...WITH WINDS STILL AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WORD
IN FORECAST FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 44 72 57 72 60 / 0 0 10 60 70
PANAMA CITY 47 70 57 73 61 / 0 0 10 70 70
DOTHAN 39 70 49 66 58 / 0 0 10 70 70
ALBANY 42 72 53 67 58 / 0 0 10 60 70
VALDOSTA 47 73 56 72 60 / 0 0 10 50 70
CROSS CITY 48 74 59 76 61 / 0 0 10 50 70
APALACHICOLA 49 69 59 71 62 / 0 0 10 60 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CAMP/BARRY
000
FXUS62 KKEY 200211
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. ELSEWHERE...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S. ONLY ABOUT
THREE DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO GENTLE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S.
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKECHOBBE TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS STABLE AND DRY...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...PWAT VALUES MAY
BE AROUND ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES OF LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
HANDLES THIS SITUATION WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES EXPECTED ON ALL KEYS
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...VEERING A BIT MORE
NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...HURRICANE KATE
MOVED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG CUBA...PASSING ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY
WEST RECORDED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 69 MPH.
HOWEVER...UNOFFICIAL WIND GUSTS TO 103 MPH WERE REPORTED FROM THE
SHERIFF`S OFFICE IN KEY WEST WHERE AN ANEMOMETER WAS LOCATED ON THE
ROOF OF THE THREE-STORY BUILDING. A RUNOFF ELECTION FOR THE CITY OF
KEY WEST GOVERNMENT CANDIDATES WAS CANCELED DUE TO INCLEMENT
WEATHER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....BWC
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KJAX 200202
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...AFTER CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF ALONG THE NE FL COASTLINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED BACK INLAND. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TO EXPAND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. BIG QUESTION WILL
BE HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BECOME DUE TO PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS IN
SOME SPOTS ALREADY COMBINED WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS. WILL
STICK WITH FORECAST OF AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...THE COMBINATION OF COOL...MOIST AND STABLE CONDITIONS
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN PROMOTE LOW CEILINGS WITH FOG THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN HALF OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH
CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FT AGL. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE
CURRENTLY IMPACT KVQQ...KJAX AND KCRG TERMINALS...AND WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE AT KSSI BY 03Z AND BY KGNV BY 07Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
VSBYS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/SM IN FG AFTER 05Z...ESPECIALLY KVQQ...
KJAX AND KCRG.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. NO HEADLINES...WITH COMBINED
SEAS UPWARDS OF 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AND DOMINATED BY EASTERLY
SWELLS.
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ZAPPE/PRESNALL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 200146 AAC
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE NEAR-SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE METRO
AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES AS THE DRAINAGE FLOW SETS
UP OVER THESE AREAS. SO WILL HAVE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR THE METRO AREAS OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR REST OF THE NIGHT HOURS.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.
LATE LAST NIGHT FOG DID DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE CWA
WITH SOME ISOLATED INTERIOR AREAS SEEING DENSE FOG. THE FAR INLAND
METRO AREAS ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST ALSO SAW SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
THE CONDITIONS ARE THE SAME THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS
LAST NIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S THIS EVENING COMPARE TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LAST
NIGHT. SO FOG SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS. SO HAVE UP THE
FOG WORDING TO WIDESPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND INTRODUCE
FOG WORDING FOR THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.
THE VISIBILITIES AT THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE 1/4 OF A
MILE OVER THE WIDESPREAD AREA...DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS WORKING
INTO THE CWA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SO WILL NOT ISSUED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT CREW
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE VISIBILITIES AND DECIDE IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 FEET WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
MODERATE RISK OF RISK CURRENTS TONIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH
CURRENT TREND SEEN ON RADAR, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL COME CLOSE TO
KPBI, KFLL AND KFXE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
VCSH. WINDS WILL START DRAINING FROM THE NNW LATER TONIGHT EAST
TERMINALS (IN FACT KPBI IS ALREADY DRAINING). A NNE DRAINING WIND
WILL START ABT 03Z AT KAPF. FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS, A NE
SEABREEZE WILL START ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, A NW SEABREEZE ARND
18Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL COMPLETELY LOOSE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MODELS STILL SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER NRN MEXICO/S. TEXAS RIDING EAST ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET STREAM FRIDAY AND REACHING THE LOWER MS REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE EFFECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL NOT BE FELT OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY LITTLE PRECIP SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
THEREFORE IN POPS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE ONLY TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND STALLING MONDAY/TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE RIDING EAST AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...NONE OF THESE IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE THURSDAY
KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IS
EXPECTED.
MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PACKAGE AND SO NO ADVISORY OR CAUTION STATEMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD. SMALL NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS CREATING MINOR HAZARDS MAINLY
IN THE SURF ZONE AND INLET OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RIP
CURRENTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED WITH RH VALUES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 67 81 69 84 / 20 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI 70 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 64 83 67 84 / - 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KTBW 200125
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
825 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR
SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH
BUFKIT DATA AND IN HOUSE FOG TOOLS SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY LOW CEILINGS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL TWEAK SKY GRIDS AND ZONES SOME TO SHOW THE EXPECTED LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE THE REST OF FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH NO OTHER GRID/ZONE CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
RECURRENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. INDICATIONS ARE FOR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND FORM A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TAF
SITES BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING HAVE LEFT
THIS AS TEMPO BUT THE TEMPO AT FMY AND RSW IS FOR LIFR IN VERY LOW
CIGS AND IFR ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z WITH VFR
RETURNING.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK SEA BREEZE COMPONENT NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL COLLAPSE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA
AROUND 2 FEET EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...35/JOHNSON
000
FXUS62 KMFL 192336
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
636 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH
CURRENT TREND SEEN ON RADAR, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL COME CLOSE TO
KPBI, KFLL AND KFXE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
VCSH. WINDS WILL START DRAINING FROM THE NNW LATER TONIGHT EAST
TERMINALS (IN FACT KPBI IS ALREADY DRAINING). A NNE DRAINING WIND
WILL START ABT 03Z AT KAPF. FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS, A NE
SEABREEZE WILL START ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, A NW SEABREEZE ARND
18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK AND DIFFUSE
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL COMPLETELY LOOSE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MODELS STILL SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVE OVER NRN MEXICO/S. TEXAS RIDING EAST ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET STREAM FRIDAY AND REACHING THE LOWER MS REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE EFFECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL NOT BE FELT OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY LITTLE PRECIP SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
THEREFORE IN POPS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...THE STRONG SHORT
WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE ONLY TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND STALLING MONDAY/TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE RIDING EAST AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...NONE OF THESE IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE THURSDAY
KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IS
EXPECTED.
MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PACKAGE AND SO NO ADVISORY OR CAUTION STATEMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD. SMALL NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS CREATING MINOR HAZARDS MAINLY
IN THE SURF ZONE AND INLET OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RIP
CURRENTS.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED WITH RH VALUES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 81 69 84 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI 70 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 65 83 67 84 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
| 
