000
FXHW60 PHFO 230556
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST
ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY THIS WEEK.
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MID WEEK. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ON WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BENIGN TRADE WIND
PATTERN FROM THE DAY SHIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHEAR AXIS OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SOME MINOR INSTABILITY WELL ABOVE 15 KFT...WHICH IS
WELL OUT OF REACH OF THE LOCALLY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE WELL CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY REVEALS
GENERALLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM WITH HAWAII...WHICH IS SITTING JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RICH TROPICAL ITCZ MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY GRAZE THE STATE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...THIS WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SHOWERS KEEPING THEM WINDWARD TERRAIN FOCUSED MID WEEK.

TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST IS DISPLACED FURTHER EAST BY AN
AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MID LATITUDE FLOW WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE USHERING IN HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AGAIN BY MID WEEK ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE EQUATORWARD REACH OF
ANY ATTENDANT FRONTAL ACTIVITY. REGARDLESS OF FLUCTUATING BATCHES
OF MOISTURE PASSING IN THE TRADES THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 PM HST SATURDAY/
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY HAS BEEN SPARSE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWER CLOUDS
UPWIND...WHICH IS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...THAT MAY COME ASHORE LATER TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WOULD BE
LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN LAST NIGHT. AFTERNOON BALLOON SOUNDINGS ARE
STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST KAUAI AND
NIIHAU...AS WELL AS NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI RUNS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

LARGER SURF IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORES COULD REACH OR EXCEED THE 25 FOOT WARNING LEVEL
MARK FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DROP SLOWLY INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL SWELL
OVER THE WEEKEND.

SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL SEE CONTINUED WAIST TO SHOULDER HIGH
SOUTHERN HEMI SWELL MONDAY. A DECREASING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. MODEST SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL APPEAR DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY HITTING THE CHEST HIGH MARK
ALONG THE BETTER EXPOSED REEFS/BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. TRADE
WINDS WILL FOCUS -SHRA OVER WINDWARD/MT TERRAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
END TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS/VIS. PHNY WILL COULD SEE THE USUAL
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE THE TO THE FIELD
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...DEJESUS
MARINE...DEJESUS/HOAG
PREVIOUS...HOAG

000
ATHW40 PHFO 230500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC MON NOV 23 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC NOVEMBER 23 2009

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...SOME WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...ARE
MOST CONCENTRATED IN WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS.  WINDWARD AREAS OF
THE OTHER ISLES AND UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF KONA ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE
SEEING OCCASIONAL LOW CEILINGS AS WELL...THOUGH AS OF BULLETIN
TIME...CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW
CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE.

A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS EXISTS IMMEDIATELY EAST
CLOCKWISE THROUGH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.  LOW CLOUDS...A
MIX OF SHOWERY AND STABLE ELEMENTS...ARE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL
BROKEN UPWIND FROM THE OTHER ISLES.  SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR TO
SCATTERED IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

VIEWING FEATURES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT ARE ABOVE 24 THOUSAND
FEET...THE AXIS OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM 29N144W TO 20N150W TO 14N154W.  THIS IS
AROUND 300 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE TROUGH APPEARS TO
BE HEADING EAST NEAR 10 MPH.  A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED EAST OF THE AXIS.

CONVECTION IS SPARSE AND WEAK ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE SOUTH OF HAWAII.  MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FOUND FROM 07N TO 09N
BETWEEN 143W AND 156.5W AS OF THIS WRITING.

$$

KINEL

000
FXHW60 PHFO 230134
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS MOVING EAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NEARER TO THE ISLANDS. TRADE
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
WHEN A NEW HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. PASSING SHOWERS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE WINDWARD OR MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY HAS BEEN SPARSE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWER CLOUDS
UPWIND...WHICH IS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...THAT MAY COME ASHORE LATER TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WOULD BE
LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN LAST NIGHT. AFTERNOON BALLOON SOUNDINGS ARE
STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 10 AM...
OVERALL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK A STANDARD WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL IN WHICH TRADE WIND SHOWERS FAVOR THE WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TYPICALLY SOMEWHAT GREATER
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY
THROUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST ONTO THE
BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THIS MOISTURE COULD BE ADVECTED
INTO THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND LEAD TO ENHANCED TRADE SHOWERS OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS BY MID WEEK.

OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO ALMOST 200 MILES NORTH
OF HONOLULU MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
MODERATE STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING A COLD
FRONT TOWARD KAUAI TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STALLING IT NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY WEDNESDAY A NEW SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND TRADE WINDS ARE STRENGTHENED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST KAUAI AND
NIIHAU...AS WELL AS NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI RUNS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY. SURF WILL BE RUNNING HIGH ON NORTHERN AND SOME
WESTERN SHORES MOST DAYS THIS WEEK DUE TO A SUCCESSION OF STRONG
LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TODAY SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGER
NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PEAK
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY. WARNING LEVEL SURF REACHING 25 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY ON NORTH FACING SHORES THAT HAVE GOOD EXPOSURE
TO THIS NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED. THE TYPICALLY WINDY
CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY BE AT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WHEN
TRADE WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

&&

$$

HOAG

000
ATHW40 PHFO 230032
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SUN NOV 23 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 23 2009

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILS OVER MANY ISLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE WINDWARD SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY AFTER THIS MORNING/S SUNNY START...AND BROKEN CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES.

KAUAI IS MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
/CU/ OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF
SCATTERED CU JUST OFF THE WINDWARD COAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE
WINDWARD WATERS FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AS ARE SKIES OVER
WATERS BETWEEN KAUAI AND NIIHAU. A NARROW PLUME CLOUD DEVELOPING
WEST OF KAUAI EXTENDS WESTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM JUST NORTH OF
NIIHAU. WHILE THE KOOLAU RANGE OF OAHU HAS IT/S TYPICAL BROKEN CU
COVER...AND SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERY CU ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
WATERS...THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS MOSTLY SUNNY WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED CU PASSING WESTWARD ON A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW. ON
MAUI...CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA
SINCE THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED CU.
MEANWHILE...CU HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SLOPES NEAR ULUPALAKUA...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU ARE OVER AN AREA
THAT INCLUDES KULA...WAILEA AND MAKENA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD FACING PORTIONS OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS...AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND HAS FEW CU. BROKEN CU ARE OVER THE
INTERIOR OF LANAI AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF MOLOKAI...WITH A RIBBON
OF BROKEN CU EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM WINDWARD MOLOKAI COVERING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF LEEWARD MOLOKAI.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER BOTH THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD SLOPES SINCE THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD COVER IS
NOW BROKEN TO OVERCAST...WITH CU AND STRATOCUMULUS. EXCEPTIONS TO
THE CLOUDY RULE ON THE BIG ISLAND INCLUDE THE SUMMITS OF THE
VOLCANOES...PORTIONS OF THE KAU COAST BETWEEN VOLCANO AND WOOD
VALLEY...AND THE LEEWARD SLOPES NEAR KEALAKEKUA AND HONAUNAU...WHERE
FEW TO SCATTERED CU ARE ALLOWING SOME SUN TO REACH THE SURFACE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WATERS AROUND KAUAI ARE NOTICEABLY CLEARER THAN
NORMAL...WHILE FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERY...BUT SMALL...CU ARE OVER
THE WINDWARD WATERS FROM OAHU TO MAUI. BROKEN SHOWERY CU ARE OVER
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WATERS...WITH SHOWERY CU IN EVEN GREATER
ABUNDANCE OVER WATERS WITHIN 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE ISLANDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 17 AND 20 MPH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A VERY DRY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL AIR
MASS CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS...AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SETTLES
IN OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT SWUNG
THROUGH OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS NOW
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND MOVING EAST...AS A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WEST OF THE ISLANDS NUDGES EAST. THE RESULT
IS A STABLE AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS.

$$

BIRCHARD

000
FXHW60 PHFO 222013
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WILL BE A LITTLE
WEAKER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER LEEWARD
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS FROM MAUI TO OAHU. SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING ONTO
THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...SO THAT ISLAND WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST
ACTIVITY TODAY WHILE OTHER ISLANDS SHOULD SEE DECREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. OVERALL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK A STANDARD WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL IN WHICH TRADE WIND SHOWERS FAVOR THE WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TYPICALLY SOMEWHAT GREATER
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY
THROUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW SOME MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST ONTO THE
BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THIS MOISTURE COULD BE ADVECTED
INTO THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND LEAD TO ENHANCED TRADE SHOWERS OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS DURING MID WEEK.

OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO ALMOST 200 MILES NORTH
OF HONOLULU MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
MODERATE STRENGTH DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING A COLD
FRONT TOWARD KAUAI TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STALLING IT NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY WEDNESDAY A NEW SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND TRADE WINDS ARE STRENGTHENED.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND WEST KAUAI AND
NIIHAU...AS WELL AS NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI. CURRENT
HIGH SURF ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SINCE THE FETCH AREA
THAT GENERATED THE SWELL PERSISTED WHEN A SECOND LOW PROLONGED THE
EPISODE. CONSEQUENTLY THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO RUN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BUOY NORTHWEST OF KAUAI ROSE OVERNIGHT
AND SURF WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A PEAK EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TODAY HAS 2
LOW CENTERS THAT TOGETHER PROVIDE AN EXTRA LONG FETCH. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE A LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PEAK OCCURRING WEDNESDAY. WARNING LEVEL SURF REACHING 25 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY ON NORTH FACING SHORES THAT HAVE GOOD EXPOSURE
TO THIS NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL.

THE SLOW DECREASE IN TRADE WIND STRENGTH SHOULD ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DISCONTINUED BY TONIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI
CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

HOAG

000
ATHW40 PHFO 221835
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC SUN NOV 22 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC NOVEMBER 22 2009

AN AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS...THAT PASSED OVER THE ISLANDS FROM
MAUI WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...IS OVER KAUAI THIS
MORNING...AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF CLEARING THAT ISLAND AS WELL.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN SHOWERY CUMULUS /CU/ IS NOW
APPROACHING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND IN A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW...
BUT THE OTHER ISLANDS HAVE JUST A FEW SMALL SHOWERS UPWIND TO THE
EAST. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
ATMOSPHERE ARE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHILE ALSO
DECREASING IN COVERAGE.

ON KAUAI...THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ISLANDS ARE COVERED IN
BROKEN SHOWERY CU...WHILE THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONLY FEW CU ARE NOTED OVER WINDWARD WATERS
WITHIN 80 MILES EAST OF KAUAI...AT WHICH POINT A NARROW NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERY CU EXISTS. THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THIS WEAKLY ORGANIZED BAND LIES OVER WINDWARD OAHU WATERS...AND
EXTENDS ABOUT 300 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDWARD SLOPES AND
COAST OF OAHU ARE UNDER BROKEN TO OVERCAST SHOWERY CU AND
STRATOCUMULUS /SC/...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND LEEWARD PORTIONS OF OAHU
ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH FEW CU. WINDWARD SLOPES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI
ARE UNDER BROKEN CU THIS MORNING...WITH SOME CLOUDS SPREADING TOWARD
THE KALAUPAPA PENINSULA ON MOLOKAI...AND ASIDE FROM SCATTERED CU AND
SC OVER LANAI...THE REMAINDER OF MAUI COUNTY IS UNDER SUNNY SKIES
AND FEW CU. THE BIG ISLAND IS MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT AN
AREA OF BROKEN CU AND SC LIES JUST OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF HILO...AS
WINDS FLOWING DOWN THE MOUNTAIN SLOPE ARE MEETING THE INCOMING TRADE
FLOW. SKIES NEAR CAPE KUMUKAHI ARE CLOUDY WITH BROKEN CU AS PART OF
THE AREA OF CLOUDS LIES OVERHEAD. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE
ISLANDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT SPEEDS NEAR 23 MPH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND CONTINUES MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS...AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONE WEST OF THE ISLANDS INCHES
EASTWARD. THE RESULTANT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ISLANDS...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS IN THE LOW LEVELS.

$$

BIRCHARD

000
FXHW60 PHFO 221349
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
349 AM HST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS MOVES EAST. SHOWERS WILL
FOCUS ON WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING LEEWARD LOCATIONS. TRADE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. THE LARGEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
6-HOUR PERIODS FALL BETWEEN FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING MT WAIALEALE ON KAUAI WHICH HAS PICKED UP AN INCH
IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND HAS SEEN LIMITED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH MOST PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. SOUNDINGS
FROM HILO AND LIHUE CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN AT LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS.

A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS MAINTAINING
THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. STORM SYSTEMS
RACING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ARE FORECAST TO PUSH THE HIGH
FARTHER EAST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
WEEK... THEREBY RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE AND
DECREASING THE TRADE WINDS INTO THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BUMP THE TRADES UP A NOTCH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KAUAI
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NEVER REACHING THE GARDEN ISLE.
THE MODELS DO SHOW TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH
IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...INCREASING PW VALUES NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE...BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND WEST KAUAI AND
NIIHAU...AS WELL AS NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI. SURF
WILL RISE EARLY THIS MORNING ON KAUAI AND MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN DURING THE DAY.

THE STRONG STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EXPECTED SWELL MOVED UP TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXPERIENCED A
SECONDARY LOW THAT EXTENDED THE FETCH AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO
PROLONG THE HIGH SURF EPISODE THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
LATE TOMORROW AND MONDAY WILL PRODUCE AN EVEN LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PEAK WEDNESDAY. THE SWELL WILL THEN CONTINUE
AS A LARGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI
CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON

000
ATHW40 PHFO 221230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SUN NOV 22 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC NOVEMBER 22 2009

THE LAST OF THE BROKEN SHOWERY CLOUDS THAT STARTED ARRIVING LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ARE PASSING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. KAUAI WILL BE
THE LAST TO BREAK FREE OF THE CLOUDS...AS IT HAS ABOUT THE DISTANCE
OF THE KAUAI CHANNEL WORTH OF CLOUDS LEFT TO GO. THE OTHER ISLANDS
HAVE ONLY 20 TO 30 MILES OF CLOUDS DRAPED OVER WINDWARD COASTAL
SECTIONS AND WINDWARD WATERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SCOOTING
ALONG TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 25 MPH. MOST OF THE CLOUDS TOP OFF AT
6000 TO 8000 FEET.

A SECOND SMALLER AREA OF BROKEN SHOWER-BEARING CLOUDS IS ABOUT 4 TO
5 HOURS EAST OF KAUAI. ALSO...JUST PEAKING OUT FROM UNDER HIGH
CLOUDS IS ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS
70 MILES EAST OF HILO.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE MOVING ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND SHOULD BE GONE WELL BEFORE THE OTHER CLOUDS TO THE
EAST ARRIVE. THE REST OF THE BIG ISLAND AS WELL AS ABOUT 100 MILES
OF OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND APPEAR TO BE CLOUD-FREE.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A U-SHAPED AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS SOUTH OF A JETSTREAM THAT RUNS FROM 27N180W
TO 16N165W TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THEN OVER TO 28N140W.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS AND STRONGEST FAR TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN AN AREA SOUTH OF 13N AND WEST OF 173W...AND WITHIN 120
MILES OF 13N148W.

THERE ARE ONLY LOW CLOUDS NORTHWEST...NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE RELEGATED TO AN AREA NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF
160W.

$$

CRAIG

000
FXHW60 PHFO 220630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS MOVES EAST. SHOWERS WILL
FOCUS ON WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD
THE WINDWARD COASTS OF ALL THE ISLANDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT PASSING
SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
REACHING THE LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS MAINTAINING THE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. STORM SYSTEMS RACING
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ARE FORECAST TO PUSH THE HIGH FARTHER
EAST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK...
THEREBY RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE AND
DECREASING THE TRADE WINDS INTO THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KAUAI
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NEVER REACHING THE GARDEN ISLE.
THE MODELS DO SHOW TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH
IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...INCREASING PW VALUES NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OF
THOSE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND
WEAKER...AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WEAKENING TREND
DOES NOT BODE MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR INCREASING TRADE SHOWERS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...SO THE FORECAST REMAINS WITH CLIMO TRADE
WIND WEATHER.


&&

.MARINE...
VERY STRONG STORMS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK PROMISE TO GENERATE MULTIPLE HIGH SURF EPISODES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING FOR NORTH AND WEST KAUAI AND
NIIHAU...AS WELL AS NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI. SURF
WILL RISE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ON KAUAI AND MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN DURING THE DAY. THE FIRST SIGNS OF LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY
BEGAN ARRIVING AT BUOY 51001 SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EXPECTED SWELL MOVED UP TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXPERIENCED A
SECONDARY LOW THAT EXTENDED THE FETCH AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO
PROLONG THE HIGH SURF EPISODE THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
LATE TOMORROW AND MONDAY WILL PRODUCE AN EVEN LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PEAK WEDNESDAY. THE SWELL WILL THEN CONTINUE
AS A LARGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON

000
ATHW40 PHFO 220525
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SUN NOV 22 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC NOVEMBER 22 2009

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS MAKES. AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY EVENING THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS WERE DRY AS A BONE WITH LOTS OF CLEAR
SKIES AND THE ONLY CLOUDS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WERE OVER THE USUAL
CLOUDY WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS EVENING IT IS THE EXACT
OPPOSITE WITH BROKEN OCCASIONAL OVERCAST CLOUDS OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND ALMOST CLEAR SKIES OVER
HILO SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. A MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS ARE PACKING
SHOWERS AS DISPLAYED BY NEXRAD. THE CLOUDS EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE EAST...SO THE ALREADY CLOUDY ISLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
CLOUDY WITH PASSING SHOWERS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

THE MOUNTAINS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS ARE EFFECTIVE CLOUD CATCHERS...
WITH LEEWARD SECTIONS HAVING SCATTERED CLOUDS AND FAR FEWER SHOWERS.
THE KAUAI CHANNEL HAS THE GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN. ON THE BIG ISLAND...THE ONLY OVERCAST CLOUDS WERE OVER THE
KONA COAST AND LOWER SLOPES SOUTH OF KAILUA KONA...AND THESE CLOUDS
WERE SLOWLY DWINDLING AWAY.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A U-SHAPED AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A JETSTREAM THAT RUNS FROM 25N180W
TO 15N165W TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THEN OVER TO 24N140W.
THAT PORTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND IS SHIFTING AWAY
TO THE EAST. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS AND STRONGEST FAR
TO THE SOUTHWEST IN AN AREA S OF 13N AND W OF 173W.

THERE ARE ONLY LOW CLOUDS NORTHWEST...NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF CLOUDS JUST EAST OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS....AND A MUCH LARGER AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STABLE
CLOUDS NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 153W...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
OCEAN HAS ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS.

$$

CRAIG

000
FXHW60 PHFO 220135
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NEARER TO THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TRADE WINDS. EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT MAINLY AFFECT THE WINDWARD OR MOUNTAIN
AREAS...REMAINING AREAS SHOULD ENJOY MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BLOW ACROSS LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE NEARLY CLEARED THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON
BALLOON SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT.

A GENERAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND THE
CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TRADE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO MODERATE STRENGTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN A LOW
PRESENTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC AS A VERY STRONG LOW LATE SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 200 MILES
NORTH OF HONOLULU.

MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD OUR ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BUT STALLING BEFORE IT CAN REACH KAUAI. MODELS DO NOT
DEPICT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TO PUSH IT DOWN ACROSS
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. INSTEAD THE LOW
MOVES UP TO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A NEW SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN
BEHIND AGAIN STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS. THERE IS A
CHANCE...ACCORDING TO MODELS...OF SOME MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ONTO THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE PRESENT FORECAST REFLECTS A TRADE WIND CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY STRONG STORMS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT
WEEK PROMISE TO GENERATE MULTIPLE HIGH SURF EPISODES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND WEST KAUAI AND NIIHAU AND FOR
NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI FOR SURF THAT SHOULD BE RISING
SUNDAY MORNING ON KAUAI AND MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE
DAY. THE FIRST SIGNS OF LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY BEGAN ARRIVING ON
BUOY 51001 ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EXPECTED SWELL MOVED UP TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN EXPERIENCED A
SECONDARY LOW THAT EXTENDED THE FETCH AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO
PROLONG THE HIGH SURF EPISODE THROUGH MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
LATE TOMORROW AND MONDAY WILL PRODUCE AN EVEN LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PEAK WEDNESDAY. THE SWELL WILL THEN CONTINUE
AS A LARGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY BEGINNING 6 AM SUNDAY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY NORTH
AND
WEST KAUAI AND NIIHAU AND NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

HOAG

000
FXHW60 PHFO 211953
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WINDWARD OR MOUNTAIN
AREAS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A
BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW FAR NORTH PUSHES THE SURFACE
RIDGE NEARER TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHIFTS RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL WAS
SPARSE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS BLOCKING THE VIEW...SOME SHOWER
BEARING LOWER CLOUDS THAT STRETCH FROM EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TO
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ISLANDS HAVE A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
APPEARANCE. HENCE SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS AND
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW BLOWING TO THE LEEWARD SIDE.

IN GENERAL HOWEVER MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT AND THE
CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BACK
DOWN TO MODERATE STRENGTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN A LOW PRESENTLY IN
THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AS A
VERY STRONG LOW LATE SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF
HONOLULU.


MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD OUR ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BUT STALLING BEFORE IT CAN REACH KAUAI. MODELS DO NOT
DEPICT ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TO PUSH IT DOWN ACROSS
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. INSTEAD THE LOW
MOVES UP TO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A NEW SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN
BEHIND AGAIN STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS. THERE IS A
CHANCE...ACCORDING TO MODELS...OF SOME MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ONTO THE BIG ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE PRESENT FORECAST REFLECTS A TRADE WIND CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH
AND WEST KAUAI AND NIIHAU AND FOR NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND
MAUI TO RUN THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL PRODUCE AN EVEN LARGER
NORTHWEST SWELL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PEAK WEDNESDAY. THE SWELL
WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

HOAG

000
FXHW60 PHFO 211342
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
342 AM HST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ON WINDWARD
AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH A FEW SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD
LOCATIONS. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL CONTINUES SPARSE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HAWAII RAIN GAGE
NETWORK ONLY SHOWING LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. GAGES ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND
RANGED FROM ZERO TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHILE WINDWARD GAGES ON
THE SMALLER ISLANDS DID NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...AND THE POP GRIDS REFLECT
THIS...REPRESENTING A DRY TRADE WEATHER REGIME OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES OVER WINDWARD AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO ARE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS/ SHOWING A DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR ONE INCH...WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE TWO INCH
PW VALUES DURING LAST WEEKEND/S FLOOD EVENT. PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING OVER WINDWARD LOCATIONS.

A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS MAINTAINING THE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. STORM SYSTEMS
RACING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ARE FORECAST TO PUSH THE HIGH
TOWARD THE EAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK... THEREBY RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE STATE AND DECREASING THE TRADE WINDS INTO THE MODERATE TO
FRESH RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KAUAI
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NEVER REACHING THE GARDEN ISLE.
THE MODELS DO SHOW TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH
IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...INCREASING PW VALUES NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OF
THOSE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN A SURFACE
TROUGH OR EVEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THIS MOISTURE...SO
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER FEATURE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE WEAKENING TREND DOES NOT BODE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FEATURE...SO THE FORECAST REMAINS WITH CLIMO TRADE WIND
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILLING IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN
SLOWLY LOWERING INTO TUESDAY.  A LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

MORRISON

000
FXHW60 PHFO 210630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ON WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LEEWARD.
TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH THE HAWAII
RAIN GAGE NETWORK ONLY SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. GAGES ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND RANGED BETWEEN A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OVER THE 12-HOUR PERIOD FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM. SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON WINDWARD MAUI ALSO RECEIVED SIMILAR TOTALS WHILE THE
REST OF THE STATE STAYED DRY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND THE POP GRIDS HAVE BEEN SUMMARILY DECREASED
ACROSS THE STATE TO REPRESENT A DRY TRADE WEATHER REGIME OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES OVER WINDWARD AREAS...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

BOTH AFTERNOON SOUNDING FROM LIHUE AND HILO DEPICT THE DRY
ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR ONE INCH...WHICH IS
IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE TWO INCH PW VALUES DURING LAST WEEKEND/S
FLOOD EVENT. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD RESULT...IN OTHER WORDS...INCREASING SHOWERS TO NORMAL
AMOUNTS.

A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS MAINTAINING THE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. STORM SYSTEMS
RACING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ARE FORECAST TO PUSH THE HIGH TOWARD
THE EAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK... THEREBY RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE STATE AND DECREASING THE TRADE WINDS INTO THE MODERATE TO
FRESH RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KAUAI
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NEVER REACHING THE GARDEN ISLE.
THE MODELS DO SHOW TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH
IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...INCREASING PW VALUES NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN MAUI COUNTY AND OAHU ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OF
THOSE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN A SURFACE
TROUGH OR EVEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THIS MOISTURE...SO
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER FEATURE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE WEAKENING TREND DOES NOT BODE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FEATURE...SO THE FORECAST REMAINS WITH CLIMO TRADE WIND
WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILLING IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN
SLOWLY LOWERING INTO TUESDAY.  A LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAIWI CHANNEL.


&&

$$

MORRISON