000
FXUS63 KDMX 230526
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1125 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER CNTRL AND SOUTHERN IA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ALONG BAND OF 700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA ALONG WITH MOISTURE STABILITY
FLUX ALONG THE 295 K SFC. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
ENHANCES THE FORCING ALONG WITH THE COLUMN BECOMING MORE SATURATED
BELOW 7 KFT. HAVE INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
WHERE STRONGEST VERTICAL ASCENT OCCURS. HAVE AROUND 50 POPS IN
VICINITY OF MCW AND ALO THOUGH MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER IF
TRENDS PERSIST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL H500 LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD
POOL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. TIMING ISSUES STILL
REMAIN...BUT MORE WITH THE EARLY WEEK STORMS DEPARTURE AND NOT ITS
ARRIVAL. WAVE OVER CO AND WESTERN KS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TNT AND
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW
ENTERING THE PAC NW DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...THETAE ADVECTION...AND MINOR WAVE
DRIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. MAIN H500 SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN KS BY 00 TUES AS SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS. GREATEST DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM OCCURS BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAPID OCCLUSION TAKING PLACE NEAR
KOMA. THE GFS/00Z EURO/GEM AND NAM ALL TRACK THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
IA. THE UKMET REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN. WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE H500 SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. GFS/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...
EURO HAVE BEEN POINTING TOWARD SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISO THUNDER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR...BUT LEAVE
OUT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY MAY LESSEN WITH
ENCOUNTERING MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AND TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SOME IMPACT TO THE AREA.
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS A NICE DEFORMATION AXIS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN WI WED NIGHT. COLD AIR EVENTUALLY GETS INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH ANOTHER ODD THERMAL DISTRIBUTION DUE TO THE
OCCLUDED LOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. BY 12Z WED...COLDER AIR SOUTH OF
LOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CYCLING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE STORM. SECONDARY H500 LOW AND SFC FEATURE STILL PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE BACK OF THE TROUGH BY LATE WED AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CREATE ANOTHER WEAK SFC FEATURE WHICH
ENHANCES A DEFORMATION AXIS OVER WHICH EXTENDS BACK INTO NORTHERN IA
AND SOUTHERN WI BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING BY LATE IN THE WEEK REMAINS...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
AS POTENTIAL MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTH AND
DEEPENING TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE A SIGNATURE WITH TODAYS
MODEL RUNS...AND PREFER THE SLOWER EURO SOLN WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH SECTIONS AS THE DEEPER COLDER AIR
ARRIVES BY WED NIGHT. COLDER CONDITIONS LAST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE REGION. BY LATE
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST. HAVE SIDED
WITH THE SLOWER EURO RATHER THAN THE GFS WHICH TYPICALLY MOVES WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS EAST TOO FAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
23/06Z...VFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR
VSBYS. LIGHT SHRA STREAMING NORTHWARD IMPACTING MAINLY THE EASTERN 4
TAF SITES...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN FOR
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. IFR/LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BY MONDAY EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS

000
FXUS63 KDMX 222323
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
525 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER CNTRL AND SOUTHERN IA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ALONG BAND OF 700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA ALONG WITH MOISTURE STABILITY
FLUX ALONG THE 295 K SFC. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
ENHANCES THE FORCING ALONG WITH THE COLUMN BECOMING MORE SATURATED
BELOW 7 KFT. HAVE INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
WHERE STRONGEST VERTICAL ASCENT OCCURS. HAVE AROUND 50 POPS IN
VICINITY OF MCW AND ALO THOUGH MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER IF
TRENDS PERSIST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL H500 LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD
POOL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. TIMING ISSUES STILL
REMAIN...BUT MORE WITH THE EARLY WEEK STORMS DEPARTURE AND NOT ITS
ARRIVAL. WAVE OVER CO AND WESTERN KS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TNT AND
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW
ENTERING THE PAC NW DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...THETAE ADVECTION...AND MINOR WAVE
DRIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. MAIN H500 SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN KS BY 00 TUES AS SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS. GREATEST DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM OCCURS BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAPID OCCLUSION TAKING PLACE NEAR
KOMA. THE GFS/00Z EURO/GEM AND NAM ALL TRACK THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
IA. THE UKMET REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN. WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE H500 SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. GFS/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...
EURO HAVE BEEN POINTING TOWARD SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISO THUNDER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR...BUT LEAVE
OUT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY MAY LESSEN WITH
ENCOUNTERING MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AND TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SOME IMPACT TO THE AREA.
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS A NICE DEFORMATION AXIS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN WI WED NIGHT. COLD AIR EVENTUALLY GETS INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH ANOTHER ODD THERMAL DISTRIBUTION DUE TO THE
OCCLUDED LOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. BY 12Z WED...COLDER AIR SOUTH OF
LOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CYCLING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE STORM. SECONDARY H500 LOW AND SFC FEATURE STILL PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE BACK OF THE TROUGH BY LATE WED AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CREATE ANOTHER WEAK SFC FEATURE WHICH
ENHANCES A DEFORMATION AXIS OVER WHICH EXTENDS BACK INTO NORTHERN IA
AND SOUTHERN WI BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING BY LATE IN THE WEEK REMAINS...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
AS POTENTIAL MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTH AND
DEEPENING TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE A SIGNATURE WITH TODAYS
MODEL RUNS...AND PREFER THE SLOWER EURO SOLN WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH SECTIONS AS THE DEEPER COLDER AIR
ARRIVES BY WED NIGHT. COLDER CONDITIONS LAST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE REGION. BY LATE
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST. HAVE SIDED
WITH THE SLOWER EURO RATHER THAN THE GFS WHICH TYPICALLY MOVES WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS EAST TOO FAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z...MID LEVEL STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHRA/RA
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAINLY IMPACTING KALO...KOTM...AND KMCW.
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS

000
FXUS63 KDVN 222213 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION WITH CORRECT SHORT TERM...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
405 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE CAUSED AN
INTERESTING SPLIT FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.  TO THE WEST UNDER THE
CLOUDS...THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
THE AREA TO THE EAST...WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN OUT AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN MANY
AREAS.  WE REMAIN IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE MSLP PATTERN.  A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EXITING THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING.  AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
IT NORTH TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH AT LEAST MID 40S DEWPOINTS
OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH.  THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF IOWA...AS WELL AS ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.  ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS KANSAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND IS LIKELY HELPING TO DRIVE THE
SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING IOWA.      ..LE..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
TONIGHT I EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWER TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WHERE THE MODELS SHOW A NICE AREA OF
850MB  CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SPILL
OVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
END CHANCE POPS GOING THERE...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCES BY THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  AFTER MIDNIGHT WE START LOSING SOME OF OUR
AMBIENT MOISTURE...AS THE SURFACE TO 850MB LAYERS ARE DRIER UPSTREAM
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY CAUSE A DIMINISHING
TREND IN THE SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A LOSS OF MORE OF THE
CLOUDS.  THESE DRIER DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT.  IF WE WERE TO KEEP OUR MID 40S DEWPOINTS ALL NIGHT...
WOULD EXPECT VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...BUT LOTS OF FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...THE DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM OF THE AREA
TODAY ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AT BEST...AND THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH THE THREAT OF FOG.  THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES TO DROP TO AROUND 40...WITH MID 40S TO THE SOUTHEAST.  FOR
NOW HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
TAFS...BUT NOTHING IN THE PUBLIC GRIDS.  MONDAY OUR FLOW SHOULD TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY...AND WE SHOULD GET A RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.  A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE
AGAIN SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL
IOWA...SO EXPECT SHOWERS THERE AGAIN...BUT SINCE THINGS APPEAR A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST...HAVE PUT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  MORE
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP US FROM BEING COMPLETELY SUNNY AGAIN TO THE
EAST...AND WE WILL HAVE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO BE COOLER THAN TODAY.      ..LE..


.LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...STILL SOME VARIANCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z RUNS IN HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROF/CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS MON NIGHT BUT THE MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO A GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LIKE THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LEAD FORCING WING AND ADEQUATE LLVL
SATURATION MON NIGHT AND WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO THE WEST THROUGH 06Z
TUE...AND EVEN SOMEWHAT INTO TUE MORNING/12Z. MAYBE JUST A FEW
NW-TO-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SCOOTING ACRS THE
CWA AS MON NIGHT PROGRESSES IN ELEVATED WAA REGIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK MILD AS WELL IN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND MANY AREAS MAY HAVE TROUBLE DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S. ON TUE...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A NICE CONVERGENT WING OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW UTILIZING PW IN-FEED OF .7 TO .9 OF AN
INCH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WILL RAISE TUE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACRS THE SOUTHWEST 2/3S. A FEW AREAS COULD RECEIVE FROM
A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY 00Z WED. EXTENT OF
LLVL SATURATION COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ON TUE
WARRANTS THE SIDING WITH THE COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/THE MAV/ OR
EVEN UNDERCUTTING THOSE VALUES...BUT EVEN SO IT STILL WILL BE ONE
MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY. PREFER THE FURTHER NORTH PROPAGATION PATH
BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF OF THE NEAR STACKED SYSTEM ROLLING RIGHT
ACRS THE DVN CWA TUE NIGHT. THIS PLACEMENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
MORE ORGANIZED BANDS OF RAIN WOULD MIGRATE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
DVN CWA DURING THE EVENING...JUST LEAVING LINGERING LIGHTER RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN IT/S PLACE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80...UNTIL WRAP AROUND
RAIN INCREASES AGAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL LIQUID PRECIP
TUE NIGHT THROUGH 12Z WED. LOWS BY WED MORNING WILL BE ADVERTISED IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO COOL ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM INITIAL IN-WRAPPING LLVL COOL CONVEYOR.

IN THE EXTENDED/WED-SUN/...SOME LINGERING RAIN WED MORNING AGAIN
WITH THERMAL PROFILES CWA-WIDE SUPPORTING ALL LIQUID UPON SFC
ARRIVAL CWA-WIDE THROUGH 18Z WED AND WILL SPLIT UP THE DAY IN TWO
HALVES. THIS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
NOW COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE SECONDARY WAVE/SEEN
NOW ON W/V IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AK/ AND PIVOT IT DOWN
ACRS TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GRT LKS WED
INTO WED NIGHT.  THIS SECONDARY WAVE ALMOST TO ACT AS A STRONG
CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE BUT MAYBE WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER
PROFILES TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP INTO THE DVN CWA LATER
WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MEAN
PLACEMENT OF VORT MAX AND INCOMING FORCING ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
VORT GRADIENT...PRECIP WILL SPREAD IN ACRS THE NORTHWEST WED
AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF BY WED
EVENING. THIS PRECIP WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR
FOR RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT CID AND DBQ BY 21Z
WED...WITH PROFILES TOP-DOWN COOLING TO ALL SNOW BY 00Z THU ACRS THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN FURTHER EASTWARD. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY A FEW AREAS OF 3 INCHES
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 WED NIGHT...WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS
OCCURRING ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SFC/S. AN INCH MAY EVEN OCCUR DOWN
TO THE I80 CORRIDOR...WITH STILL MILD GROUND TEMPS ERODING THE TRUE
ACCUMULATIONS.

ON THANKSGIVING...STILL LOOKS COLD...BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS THE SECONDARY WAVE DEEPENS ACRS SOUTHERN
LK MICHIGAN FAVORING THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL TONE DOWN HIGH
TEMPS FOR THU AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...WILL SLOW RETURN FLOW AND THERMAL RECOVERY WITH SLOWER
STACKED LOW PROGRESSION ACRS THE GRT LKS AND TONE DOWN FRI HIGHS.
AS RIDGE EDGES ACRS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH CLEARING...LOW TEMPS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO EVEN UPPER TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS BY SAT
MORNING. RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON SAT AND CONTINUED INTO SUNDAY FOR A
THERMALLY MODERATING FCST. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY FOR NOW BUT
THERE MAY BE A FRONTALLY FORCED PRECIP EVENT BY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON
LLVL MOISTURE RETURN.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CLOUDS AND VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KCID AND KDBQ THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT VSBYS STAYING ABOVE 6SM AND CIGS ABOVE 6KFT. FOG
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING KMLI AND KBRL
WITH 2-3SM VSBYS BY MORNING.  MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW LOW DEWPOINTS GO
WITH DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW.  SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN IOWA
ON MONDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN VFR.    ..LE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

LE/12

000
FXUS63 KDVN 222103
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING
PRESSURE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. STRATUS AND FOG FROM THIS
MORNING HAS MIXED OUT TO SOME EXTENT...THOUGH IT IS NEARLY INTACT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WE
HAVE PATCHED OF IT EXTENDING DOWN INTO OUR NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES.
ALOFT THERE IS AN AMAZING POCKET OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. AT
850MB WE HAVE AN AREA OF +12 TO +14 AIR OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
...AND THEY ARE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S AT THE SURFACE TODAY AS
A RESULT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY DECENT TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES TODAY...AND WHILE THERE IS NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS
IT NOW...THAT IS PARTIALLY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING BEHIND IT.  THE GULF IS
ALREADY OPEN...AS INDICATED BY A NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH 850MB
DEWPOINTS OF +5 OR HIGHER EXTENDING UP INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS WAS
GENERATED BY THE CUT OFF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THAT AREA.
..LE..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
MAIN FORECAST IS FOR CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH STRATUS AND
FOG OF PARTICULAR CONCERN.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S INDICATES THAT OUR DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RISE FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN TOWARDS
MORNING AND SUNDAY AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER POCKET OVER SOUTHERN MO
MOVES IN.  WE ARE ALSO SEEING CONVERGENCE AND POOLING TO OUR WEST
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT IS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO DRY OUR OUR DEWPOINTS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THESE DEWPOINT ISSUES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
OUR AREA IN TEMPERATURE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.  EXPECT THAT A NEW AREA
OF STRATUS...ALREADY IN EVIDENCE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
WILL ADVECT TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND AHEAD OF IT WE SHOULD GET
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE CLEAR
AIR WITH THE DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH.  TOUGH TO SAY...AS
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL RIGHT NOW...BUT I CURRENTLY EXPECT
THE STRATUS BACK IN HERE SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.  WE MAY GET SOME DRIZZLE WHERE THE STRATUS MOVES
IN...ESPECIALLY IF WE ALREADY HAD SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT
MOVED IN.  OUR NORTHEAST IS AT RISK OF DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AS
THEY SHOULD STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST AND GET THE COLDEST.  SUNDAY WE
SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE STRATUS LIKE WE HAVE TODAY...LEAVING US
WITH SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU BY AFTERNOON.  WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
BRING US UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S IF NOT NEAR 60 AS IS CURRENTLY
HAPPENING OVER SOUTHERN MO.     ..LE..


.LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...STILL SOME VARIANCES BETWEEN
THE 12Z RUNS IN HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROF/CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW ACRS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS MON NIGHT BUT THE MODELS
ARE COMING MORE INTO A GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LIKE THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF LEAD FORCING WING AND ADEQUATE LLVL
SATURATION MON NIGHT AND WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO THE WEST THROUGH 06Z
TUE...AND EVEN SOMEWHAT INTO TUE MORNING/12Z. MAYBE JUST A FEW
NW-TO-SE ORIENTED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SCOOTING ACRS THE
CWA AS MON NIGHT PROGRESSES IN ELEVATED WAA REGIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK MILD AS WELL IN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND MANY AREAS MAY HAVE TROUBLE DIPPING BELOW THE MID 40S. ON TUE...
MOST MODELS INDICATE A NICE CONVERGENT WING OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW UTILIZING PW IN-FEED OF .7 TO .9 OF AN
INCH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WILL RAISE TUE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACRS THE SOUTHWEST 2/3S. A FEW AREAS COULD RECEIVE FROM
A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY 00Z WED. EXTENT OF
LLVL SATURATION COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP ON TUE
WARRANTS THE SIDING WITH THE COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/THE MAV/ OR
EVEN UNDERCUTTING THOSE VALUES...BUT EVEN SO IT STILL WILL BE ONE
MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY. PREFER THE FURTHER NORTH PROPAGATION PATH
BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF OF THE NEAR STACKED SYSTEM ROLLING RIGHT
ACRS THE DVN CWA TUE NIGHT. THIS PLACEMENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
MORE ORGANIZED BANDS OF RAIN WOULD MIGRATE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
DVN CWA DURING THE EVENING...JUST LEAVING LINGERING LIGHTER RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN IT/S PLACE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80...UNTIL WRAP AROUND
RAIN INCREASES AGAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL LIQUID PRECIP
TUE NIGHT THROUGH 12Z WED. LOWS BY WED MORNING WILL BE ADVERTISED IN
THE UPPER 30S...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO COOL ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST AWAY FROM INITIAL IN-WRAPPING LLVL COOL CONVEYOR.

IN THE EXTENDED/WED-SUN/...SOME LINGERING RAIN WED MORNING AGAIN
WITH THERMAL PROFILES CWA-WIDE SUPPORTING ALL LIQUID UPON SFC
ARRIVAL CWA-WIDE THROUGH 18Z WED AND WILL SPLIT UP THE DAY IN TWO
HALVES. THIS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
NOW COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE SECONDARY WAVE/SEEN
NOW ON W/V IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AK/ AND PIVOT IT DOWN
ACRS TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CYCLONE DEEPENING OVER THE GRT LKS WED
INTO WED NIGHT.  THIS SECONDARY WAVE ALMOST TO ACT AS A STRONG
CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE BUT MAYBE WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER
PROFILES TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP INTO THE DVN CWA LATER
WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MEAN
PLACEMENT OF VORT MAX AND INCOMING FORCING ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
VORT GRADIENT...PRECIP WILL SPREAD IN ACRS THE NORTHWEST WED
AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS THE NORTHEAST HALF BY WED
EVENING. THIS PRECIP WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR
FOR RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND SNOW AT CID AND DBQ BY 21Z
WED...WITH PROFILES TOP-DOWN COOLING TO ALL SNOW BY 00Z THU ACRS THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN FURTHER EASTWARD. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST A GOOD
CHANCE FOR 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY A FEW AREAS OF 3 INCHES
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30 WED NIGHT...WITH THE ACCUMULATIONS
OCCURRING ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SFC/S. AN INCH MAY EVEN OCCUR DOWN
TO THE I80 CORRIDOR...WITH STILL MILD GROUND TEMPS ERODING THE TRUE
ACCUMULATIONS.

ON THANKSGIVING...STILL LOOKS COLD...BLUSTERY WITH LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS THE SECONDARY WAVE DEEPENS ACRS SOUTHERN
LK MICHIGAN FAVORING THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL TONE DOWN HIGH
TEMPS FOR THU AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...WILL SLOW RETURN FLOW AND THERMAL RECOVERY WITH SLOWER
STACKED LOW PROGRESSION ACRS THE GRT LKS AND TONE DOWN FRI HIGHS.
AS RIDGE EDGES ACRS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH CLEARING...LOW TEMPS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO EVEN UPPER TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS BY SAT
MORNING. RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON SAT AND CONTINUED INTO SUNDAY FOR A
THERMALLY MODERATING FCST. WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY FOR NOW BUT
THERE MAY BE A FRONTALLY FORCED PRECIP EVENT BY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON
LLVL MOISTURE RETURN.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN QUESTION IS FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  EXPECT
STRATUS TO MOVE IN AND LOWER TO AROUND 15-25 HFT LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  CIGS SHOULD BE LOWEST WEST...AND HIGHEST EAST.  KMLI
AND KBRL WILL BE NEAR THE EDGES OF THIS STRATUS...BUT SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF IT.  FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EDGES OF THE
STRATUS AND TO THE EAST MAY AGAIN BE DENSE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE
VISIBILITIES 1-2SM UNDER THE STRATUS LIKE WE HAD THIS MORNING.
BURN-OFF IN THE MORNING SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN 16-20Z...WITH
SOME LOW CIGS REMAINING AT KCID AND KDBQ A FEW MORE HOURS.
..LE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

LE/12

000
FXUS63 KDMX 222101
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
301 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER CNTRL AND SOUTHERN IA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ALONG BAND OF 700 MB
THETA-E ADVECTION AND ADIABATIC OMEGA ALONG WITH MOISTURE STABILITY
FLUX ALONG THE 295 K SFC. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH
ENHANCES THE FORCING ALONG WITH THE COLUMN BECOMING MORE SATURATED
BELOW 7 KFT. HAVE INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF
WHERE STRONGEST VERTICAL ASCENT OCCURS. HAVE AROUND 50 POPS IN
VICINITY OF MCW AND ALO THOUGH MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER IF
TRENDS PERSIST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL H500 LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD
POOL DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. TIMING ISSUES STILL
REMAIN...BUT MORE WITH THE EARLY WEEK STORMS DEPARTURE AND NOT ITS
ARRIVAL. WAVE OVER CO AND WESTERN KS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TNT AND
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW
ENTERING THE PAC NW DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. WARM
AIR ADVECTION SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...THETAE ADVECTION...AND MINOR WAVE
DRIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. MAIN H500 SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN KS BY 00 TUES AS SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPS. GREATEST DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM OCCURS BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAPID OCCLUSION TAKING PLACE NEAR
KOMA. THE GFS/00Z EURO/GEM AND NAM ALL TRACK THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
IA. THE UKMET REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN. WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE H500 SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. GFS/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...
EURO HAVE BEEN POINTING TOWARD SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE
UPPER LOW ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISO THUNDER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR...BUT LEAVE
OUT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY MAY LESSEN WITH
ENCOUNTERING MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH. WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AND TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SOME IMPACT TO THE AREA.
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS A NICE DEFORMATION AXIS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN WI WED NIGHT. COLD AIR EVENTUALLY GETS INTO THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH ANOTHER ODD THERMAL DISTRIBUTION DUE TO THE
OCCLUDED LOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. BY 12Z WED...COLDER AIR SOUTH OF
LOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CYCLING AROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE STORM. SECONDARY H500 LOW AND SFC FEATURE STILL PROGGED TO DROP
INTO THE BACK OF THE TROUGH BY LATE WED AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CREATE ANOTHER WEAK SFC FEATURE WHICH
ENHANCES A DEFORMATION AXIS OVER WHICH EXTENDS BACK INTO NORTHERN IA
AND SOUTHERN WI BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING BY LATE IN THE WEEK REMAINS...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
AS POTENTIAL MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTH AND
DEEPENING TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE A SIGNATURE WITH TODAYS
MODEL RUNS...AND PREFER THE SLOWER EURO SOLN WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH SECTIONS AS THE DEEPER COLDER AIR
ARRIVES BY WED NIGHT. COLDER CONDITIONS LAST INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE REGION. BY LATE
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST. HAVE SIDED
WITH THE SLOWER EURO RATHER THAN THE GFS WHICH TYPICALLY MOVES WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS EAST TOO FAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
22/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY DESPITE
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES TONIGHT AND SHOULD BRING MORE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRING
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. KALO
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND ANYTHING BELOW
MVFR SHOULD BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...DONAVON

000
FXUS63 KDVN 221849
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
TRENDS...AND TO RAISE MAX TEMPS. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST...WHILE THEY REMAIN HIGH IN THE WEST
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HIGH...AND THE SHOWERS
ARE INDEED LIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES ONLY TO 6 OR 7 MILES.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING AHEAD OF THE FORECAST IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT ARE RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND IN THE NORTHWEST. HAVE
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE SOUTH...BUT KEPT THINGS AS IS IN
THE NORTHWEST...HOPING THAT IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS SOME MORE
BREAKS WILL GET UP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO WARM THINGS UP.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

LE

000
FXUS63 KDMX 221725
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1124 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
FOG NOT AS DENSE THIS MORNING THANKS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MODERATE SSE BREEZES. WILL KEEP PATCHY WORDING IN FORECAST THROUGH
15Z BUT NO DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED THIS TIME. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE AWAY TO OUR
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS TODAY...BUT IN THIS
FLOW GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS
WHERE SOME LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GENERATION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SOME MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT QPFS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 10 KFT AGL AND
IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO FALL
THROUGH THIS LAYER. HAVE THUS TONED PRECIP BACK TO JUST ISOLD
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS A BIT TRICKY AS
WAA HAS ALREADY KICKED IN AND SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WILL BE LIMITED
BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR COMING IN AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST. WITH THIS
IN MIND HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE GONE NEAR MOS
WHERE PERIODS OF SOME CLEARING ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT FOR
THE COMING WEEKS FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY BUILDING. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT LIFTING AIRMASS
WEAKLY...BUT POSSIBLY SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTION TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE
A RESPITE IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE. FORCING
FROM THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE FAST
APPROACHING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA...CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG KINEMATIC FORCING IN
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM EASTERN NEB TO SOMEWHERE OVER MISSOURI.
AS THIS HAPPENS THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SHOULD MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT BEGIN TO COOL TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AND DEFORMATION TO CONTEND WITH. OF COURSE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
ALL OF THIS IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTH...THEN THIS MIXTURE SPREADS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
RATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BE OF CONCERN AT THIS
POINT. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 7 C/KM
AND NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AROUND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SEEMS LIKE WE WILL BE UNDER AN OBVIOUS SECTOR FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT AM ONLY INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST PORTIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST...A TURN TO MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
22/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF TODAY DESPITE
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES TONIGHT AND SHOULD BRING MORE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRING
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. KALO
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND ANYTHING BELOW
MVFR SHOULD BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LEE/DONAVON
LONG TERM...MOYER

000
FXUS63 KDVN 221224 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
624 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
DECENT WARM ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WITH NONE OF THE MODELS CATCHING THIS SITUATION.
THERE IS A DRY LAYER BELOW 800 MB ON THE 12Z DVN SOUNDING...SO SOME
OF THIS WILL BE VIRGA. THEREFORE KEPT POPS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
ALSO INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A MILD START TO THE DAY
STILL SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH AT LEAST 60 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 4-6SM BR/HZ EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 4K FT. SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

HAASE

000
FXUS63 KDMX 221144 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
544 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
FOG NOT AS DENSE THIS MORNING THANKS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MODERATE SSE BREEZES. WILL KEEP PATCHY WORDING IN FORECAST THROUGH
15Z BUT NO DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED THIS TIME. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE AWAY TO OUR
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS TODAY...BUT IN THIS
FLOW GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS
WHERE SOME LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GENERATION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SOME MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT QPFS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 10 KFT AGL AND
IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO FALL
THROUGH THIS LAYER. HAVE THUS TONED PRECIP BACK TO JUST ISOLD
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS A BIT TRICKY AS
WAA HAS ALREADY KICKED IN AND SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WILL BE LIMITED
BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR COMING IN AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST. WITH THIS
IN MIND HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE GONE NEAR MOS
WHERE PERIODS OF SOME CLEARING ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT FOR
THE COMING WEEKS FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY BUILDING. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT LIFTING AIRMASS
WEAKLY...BUT POSSIBLY SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTION TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE
A RESPITE IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE. FORCING
FROM THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE FAST
APPROACHING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA...CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG KINEMATIC FORCING IN
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM EASTERN NEB TO SOMEWHERE OVER MISSOURI.
AS THIS HAPPENS THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SHOULD MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT BEGIN TO COOL TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AND DEFORMATION TO CONTEND WITH. OF COURSE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
ALL OF THIS IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTH...THEN THIS MIXTURE SPREADS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
RATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BE OF CONCERN AT THIS
POINT. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 7 C/KM
AND NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AROUND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SEEMS LIKE WE WILL BE UNDER AN OBVIOUS SECTOR FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT AM ONLY INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE SLIGHLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST PORTIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST...A TURN TO MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
22/12Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR FOG
WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING WITH VSBYS
IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. THICK MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH PREVAILING CIGS FROM FL060-100 EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND ONLY INCREASE A FEW KNOTS
BY MID MORNING...AS MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE THICK CLOUD COVER.
AS MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO RESTRICT SFC VSBY TO MVFR
LEVELS SO HAVE GONE WITH JUST VCSH AT KALO AND KOTM AND DRY
ELSEWHERE IN THE 12Z TAFS. THESE PROSPECTS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE DAY. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LEE
LONG TERM...MOYER

000
FXUS63 KDMX 220909
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
FOG NOT AS DENSE THIS MORNING THANKS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MODERATE SSE BREEZES. WILL KEEP PATCHY WORDING IN FORECAST THROUGH
15Z BUT NO DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED THIS TIME. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IOWA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE AWAY TO OUR
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS TODAY...BUT IN THIS
FLOW GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS
WHERE SOME LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GENERATION OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND SOME MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT QPFS ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR BELOW THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 10 KFT AGL AND
IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO FALL
THROUGH THIS LAYER. HAVE THUS TONED PRECIP BACK TO JUST ISOLD
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS A BIT TRICKY AS
WAA HAS ALREADY KICKED IN AND SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WILL BE LIMITED
BY CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR COMING IN AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST. WITH THIS
IN MIND HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MOS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE GONE NEAR MOS
WHERE PERIODS OF SOME CLEARING ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT FOR
THE COMING WEEKS FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY BUILDING. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT LIFTING AIRMASS
WEAKLY...BUT POSSIBLY SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHERN SECTION TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE
A RESPITE IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE. FORCING
FROM THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE FAST
APPROACHING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA...CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG KINEMATIC FORCING IN
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM EASTERN NEB TO SOMEWHERE OVER MISSOURI.
AS THIS HAPPENS THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SHOULD MIGRATE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT BEGIN TO COOL TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITING TO THE EAST. WILL HAVE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AND DEFORMATION TO CONTEND WITH. OF COURSE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
ALL OF THIS IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE. LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTH...THEN THIS MIXTURE SPREADS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
RATES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO BE OF CONCERN AT THIS
POINT. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 7 C/KM
AND NEGATIVE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AROUND THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. SEEMS LIKE WE WILL BE UNDER AN OBVIOUS SECTOR FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT AM ONLY INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO BE SLIGHLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST PORTIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST...A TURN TO MORE SEASONAL
WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH SOME MVFR TO VFR VSBYS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA...SO MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF
PERIOD. DENSE FOG THREAT SEEMS TO BE DISSIPATING DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK KEEPING TEMPS UP. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND TODAY...AND HAVE SOME WEAK LIFT THAT
COULD BRING A SCATTERED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO DID NOT
PUT ANY PRECIP MENTIONS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS MAY END UP SEEING
MORE OF A VIRGA EVENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...MOYER
AVIATION...BEERENDS

000
FXUS63 KDVN 220822
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
222 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ADVECTION PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION.
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE CWA KEEPING TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENTLY READINGS ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
ONLY SOME LIGHT FOG OBSERVED AT SOME LOCATIONS. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BUT BEING THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OFFSHORE HARD TO
GET A FEEL FOR HOW INTENSE IT IS RIGHT NOW DUE TO LACK OF
OBSERVATIONS/SHIP REPORTS. ..HAASE..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY
TO MORE SUNSHINE LATER TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD.
WITH SUCH A MILD START TO THE DAY FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE
TEMPS TO AT LEAST 60 FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH. THESE READINGS SIMILAR TO MAX TEMPS ACROSS
THE SHOW ME STATE YESTERDAY. ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT THESE MAX TEMPS
WOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER 22. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY IN OUR NORTHWEST CWA AS SOUNDINGS LOOK
PRETTY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UPPER SUPPORT IS STILL WAY TO THE
WEST IN THE PLAINS.

DID ADD 20 POPS FOR TONIGHT WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS PLAINS TROUGH
PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS/UKMET ALL PAINT
SOME LIGHT QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA TONIGHT BUT DRY LOW LEVELS PREVENT
ME FROM GOING HIGHER THAN 20 POPS FOR NOW. KEPT OUR EASTERN CWA DRY
AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE E-SE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS FEEDING EVEN
LOWER DEWPOINT AIR INTO THAT AREA. HOWEVER IF LATER MODEL RUNS SHOW
BETTER MOISTURE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED THEN POPS CAN BE RAISED.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AS MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.

..HAASE..

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATE NOVEMBER WILL MAKE A CERTAIN BREAK FROM THE THERMALLY STABLE
WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. AFTER A POTENTIALLY PLEASANT
MONDAY...WE ARE GOING TO SEE OUR FIRST REAL SHOT AT COLD AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER SINCE THE TEENS OF OCTOBER. THESE CHANGES ARE NOW
CERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMONG ALL MODELS AGREE ON A STRONG
UPPER LOW ARRANGEMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

AS EXPECTED...THE TREND TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK AND A
MORE POTENT STRENGTH HAVE AGAIN BEEN THE DIRECTION OF 00Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GENERALLY...OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH HOLDS THE MAIN FORCING TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING. THUS...THE SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING TONIGHT IN THE
WEST SHOULD BE ON THE EXIT EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DRY
DAY WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A
PERSISTENT LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD AGAIN BE MILD...WITH SHALLOW MIXING
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 50S.  MONDAY NIGHT...UNDER
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN WEST...WE SHOULD BE MILD
AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY...WHILE RAIN SHOULD
ADVANCE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO
THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST LOOKS LIKELY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 AS THE MAIN
SYSTEM DYNAMICS PASS BY...DURING THE PERIOD A TRANSITION TO RAIN
SNOW MIX...OR TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITHOUT MUCH DETAIL SINCE FURTHER CHANGES
IN TRACK AND STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF MODEL
RUNS. IN GENERAL...AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOKS IN THE QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTER INCH RANGE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...THE EC...AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW
PHASING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN NOW
SHOW THIS AS WELL. I HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CHANCE...AND FEEL THIS
IS A GROWING POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON
IN PARTS OF THE CWA.  IF THIS DOES OCCUR...GRASSY NIGHT TIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

BEYOND...NO CHANGES MADE...BUT WITH A STRONGER UPPER LOW
FORECAST...THE LATE WEEK MODERATION MAY BE FURTHER DELAYED THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
...ERVIN...

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 4-6SM BR/HZ EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. CIGS MAINLY ABOVE 7K FT. SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

HAASE/ERVIN

000
FXUS63 KDMX 220519
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1120 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE FOG AND STRATUS WAS SLOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY...WHICH IS TYPICAL
FOR NOVEMBER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE THIS
EVENING WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING. CONSIDERING THE RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL MOVING UP TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN. THE DIFFERENCE
TONIGHT IS EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN RISING
READINGS THEREAFTER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN WITH RISING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE DEPTH...IT STILL LIKELY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION. DRIZZLE RATHER WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF
ANYTHING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIFT NORTH BY EARLY
SUN AND WITH WEAK LIFT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL AS MUCH AS SAT AM
HOURS WHEN FOG LASTED UNTIL APPROX 11 AM...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE SOME MODIFICATION WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MORNING
NORTHWEST NEARER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THE
DAY THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS TO BE WARMER ON SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME
CONCERN THAT GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORNING FOG AND SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS TRACKING LOW FARTHER NORTH AND THEN WINGS IT SOUTHEAST
WHILE GEM/EURO CONTINUE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND THEN FOCUS
ENERGY NORTHEAST OVER TIME. GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A LINE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE GEM/EURO HAVE BETTER CHANCES
FOR ANY SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
LATE DAY MONDAY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER CHANCES FOR
NOW PRIMARILY DUE TO LACK OF ANY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AND
SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH STORM EVOLUTION. LOW OCCLUDES EARLY ON
TUESDAY...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND LOW AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN WITH LIGHT RAIN WEST SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY. AREA OF BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
LOW...AND FAR NORTHWEST AREAS MAY NEED SOME ATTENTION LATE TUES
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  PRESENTLY
NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY
THURSDAY SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SCT FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. A
COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
A FAST MOVING RIDGE HEADS EAST OF THE AREA...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS WITH A QUICK WARM UP FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
CONSERVATIVELY PLACED IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH SOME MVFR TO VFR VSBYS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA...SO MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF
PERIOD. DENSE FOG THREAT SEEMS TO BE DISSIPATING DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MID LEVEL STRATUS DECK KEEPING TEMPS UP. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO HANG AROUND TODAY...AND HAVE SOME WEAK LIFT THAT
COULD BRING A SCATTERED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DRY LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO DID NOT
PUT ANY PRECIP MENTIONS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS MAY END UP SEEING
MORE OF A VIRGA EVENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS

000
FXUS63 KDMX 212338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
540 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE FOG AND STRATUS WAS SLOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY...WHICH IS TYPICAL
FOR NOVEMBER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE THIS
EVENING WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING. CONSIDERING THE RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL MOVING UP TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN. THE DIFFERENCE
TONIGHT IS EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN RISING
READINGS THEREAFTER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN WITH RISING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE DEPTH...IT STILL LIKELY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION. DRIZZLE RATHER WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF
ANYTHING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIFT NORTH BY EARLY
SUN AND WITH WEAK LIFT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL AS MUCH AS SAT AM
HOURS WHEN FOG LASTED UNTIL APPROX 11 AM...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE SOME MODIFICATION WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MORNING
NORTHWEST NEARER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THE
DAY THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS TO BE WARMER ON SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME
CONCERN THAT GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORNING FOG AND SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS TRACKING LOW FARTHER NORTH AND THEN WINGS IT SOUTHEAST
WHILE GEM/EURO CONTINUE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND THEN FOCUS
ENERGY NORTHEAST OVER TIME. GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A LINE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE GEM/EURO HAVE BETTER CHANCES
FOR ANY SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
LATE DAY MONDAY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER CHANCES FOR
NOW PRIMARILY DUE TO LACK OF ANY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AND
SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH STORM EVOLUTION. LOW OCCLUDES EARLY ON
TUESDAY...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND LOW AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN WITH LIGHT RAIN WEST SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY. AREA OF BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
LOW...AND FAR NORTHWEST AREAS MAY NEED SOME ATTENTION LATE TUES
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  PRESENTLY
NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY
THURSDAY SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SCT FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. A
COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
A FAST MOVING RIDGE HEADS EAST OF THE AREA...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS WITH A QUICK WARM UP FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
CONSERVATIVELY PLACED IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRICKIER AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH MID LEVEL STRATUS
SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA COULD PRECLUDE SOME OF THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HIT THE FOG HARDEST ACROSS THE
EAST/NORTHEASTERN SITES WHERE SHOULD SEE CLEARER SKIES INITIALLY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER COOLING. OTHERWISE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...COULD SEE THE MID LEVEL
STRATUS DECK LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH DRIZZLE
AS WELL. CLOUDS/ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS

000
FXUS63 KDVN 212104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...ALLOWING
PRESSURE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.  STRATUS AND FOG FROM THIS
MORNING HAS MIXED OUT TO SOME EXTENT...THOUGH IT IS NEARLY INTACT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND WE
HAVE PATCHED OF IT EXTENDING DOWN INTO OUR NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES.
ALOFT THERE IS AN AMAZING POCKET OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME.  AT
850MB WE HAVE AN AREA OF +12 TO +14 AIR OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND THEY ARE INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S AT THE SURFACE
TODAY AS A RESULT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY DECENT TROUGH IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES TODAY...AND WHILE THERE IS NO TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS IT NOW...THAT IS PARTIALLY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING BEHIND IT.  THE
GULF IS ALREADY OPEN...AS INDICATED BY A NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE
WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS OF +5 OR HIGHER EXTENDING UP INTO OKLAHOMA.
THIS WAS GENERATED BY THE CUT OFF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THAT
AREA.     ..LE..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST IS FOR CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH STRATUS AND
FOG OF PARTICULAR CONCERN.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S INDICATES THAT OUR DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RISE FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...BUT THEN DROP OFF AGAIN TOWARDS
MORNING AND SUNDAY AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER POCKET OVER SOUTHERN MO
MOVES IN.  WE ARE ALSO SEEING CONVERGENCE AND POOLING TO OUR WEST
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT IS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALSO ACT TO DRY OUR OUR DEWPOINTS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THESE DEWPOINT ISSUES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
OUR AREA IN TEMPERATURE AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.  EXPECT THAT A NEW AREA
OF STRATUS...ALREADY IN EVIDENCE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
WILL ADVECT TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND AHEAD OF IT WE SHOULD GET
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP IN THE CLEAR
AIR WITH THE DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH.  TOUGH TO SAY...AS
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL RIGHT NOW...BUT I CURRENTLY EXPECT
THE STRATUS BACK IN HERE SOMEWHERE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.  WE MAY GET SOME DRIZZLE WHERE THE STRATUS MOVES
IN...ESPECIALLY IF WE ALREADY HAD SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT
MOVED IN.  OUR NORTHEAST IS AT RISK OF DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AS
THEY SHOULD STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST AND GET THE COLDEST.  SUNDAY WE
SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE STRATUS LIKE WE HAVE TODAY...LEAVING US
WITH SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU BY AFTERNOON.  WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
BRING US UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S IF NOT NEAR 60 AS IS CURRENTLY
HAPPENING OVER SOUTHERN MO.     ..LE..


.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW
BACK FROM RIDGE CENTER SHOULD KEEP LOW STRATUS AND MUCH OF ANY CHC
OF LIGHT PRECIP OFF TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST VARYING LAYERS OF AC AND CI. ANY BREAKS IN THESE HIGHER DECKS
ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN THE SFC WINDS COULD MEAN AREAS OF FOG AGAIN
BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS LONG AS MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAINTAIN.
12Z RUN SHORT RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AS THE NEXT LARGE
PIECE OF PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY DIGS INLAND ACRS THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD...SPRAWLING SOUTHWEST MEAN STEERING FLOW
WILL ENGULF MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MS RVR VALLEYS INTO MON
EVENING. MONDAY MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CONTINUING BOUTS OF AC
AND CI...BUT LLVL SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ENSURE ANOTHER ABOVE
NORMAL TEMP DAY WITH SOME AREAS LOCALLY POSSIBLY STRIVING UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY INSOLATION. AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS REVS UP ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MON NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONG WAVE...THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF
THE FIRST WAVE OF LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN CWA
DEPENDENT OF COURSE ON ADEQUATE LLVL SATURATION. THE 12Z RUN GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH ON LLVL MOISTURE RETURN AND COLUMN
SATURATION ENOUGH FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN INTO THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUE...WHILE THE NAM AND UKMET ARE MAINLY
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEW 12Z RUN ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW COMPLEX
WITH THE FEATURE INTO SOUTHWEST IA BY TUE MORNING WHICH IS CURIOUS AS
IT STILL ADVERTISES A NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE
SLOWER LIKE ITS EARLIER 00Z RUN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACRS THE WESTERN
2/3S ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TUE BUT THINK WITH THE INCREASING EAST-
SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW OF A DRIER AIRMASS SOURCE...THE UKMET AND NAM ARE
ON TO SOMETHING WITH THEIR DELAY OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP AT THE SFC
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RVR. IF SFC DPTS
INCREASE MON NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME DIPPING BELOW THE
LOWER 40S.


IN THE EXTENDED/TUE-SAT/...MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES
TO BE HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX IMPACTS THE MID WEEK AND
HOLIDAY PERIOD. INTERESTING HOW THAT IN GENERAL THE 12Z MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED AND
NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION TUE
INTO WED. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LIKELY POPS WARRANTED CWA-WIDE ON
TUE FOR THE MAIN SURGE OF PRE-SYSTEM LIFT UTILIZING MOIST CONVEYOR...
BUT A WANE IN THE ACTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TUE
AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF IN-WRAPPING LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
AND COLD CONVEYOR. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...THE COLD CONVEYOR EVEN
SWITCHES THE THERMAL PROFILE INTO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL SNOW
FROM THE SAME DIRECTION/SW TO NE/ DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TUE
EVENING. IT/S JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP IS LEFT IN THE CWA FOR THIS
COOLING TO INTERACT WITH ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I80...IF INDEED
THIS NEW QUICKER TIMING IS EVEN CORRECT. FOR NOW WILL UP THE POPS TO
LIKELY CWA-WIDE TUE BUT KEEP PRECIP ALL LIQUID THROUGH 00Z WED.
WILL GO WITH A MIX ACRS THE WESTERN THIRD AFTER 00Z WED MORE FOR A
WRAP AROUND PRECIP SCENARIO INTO THE COLD CORE LIKE THE CANADIAN
GEM IS SUGGESTING...WHILE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EXITS OUT
OF THE FAR EAST. FURTHER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO END PRECIP TEMPORARILY
LATER TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN WALK IN STRAIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES TUE NIGHT AND WED IN WRAP AROUND INTO COLDER AIR.

AS THE MAIN CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BOMB OVER THE GRT LKS WED INTO
THU...THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS SIDED WITH THE THE 12Z GFS IN SUGGESTING
A SECONDARY LOW TO DROP DOWN TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN SYSTEM AND
INTERACT WITH IT SOME ALMOST FUJIWARA-LIKE. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING
BANDED SWATHS OF MAINLY SNOW UNDER IT WED NIGHT ACRS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE DVN CWA WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GEM DO NOT HAVE THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM AND JUST
ADVERTISE TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OF NO CONSEQUENCE WED NIGHT INTO TURKEY DAY. RIGHT NOW DO NOT
TRUST THE GFS AND EURO WITH THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM AND WILL JUST
ADVERTISE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT
TREND DOWN TEMPS. THURSDAY COULD BE A COLD BLUSTERY RAW DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S...FLURRIES AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH.

RIDGING AND THERMAL MODERATION LOOK TO FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE EXITING
GRT LKS COLD CORE CYCLONE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN QUESTION IS FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  EXPECT
STRATUS TO MOVE IN AND LOWER TO AROUND 15-25 HFT LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  CIGS SHOULD BE LOWEST WEST...AND HIGHEST EAST.  KMLI
AND KBRL WILL BE NEAR THE EDGES OF THIS STRATUS...BUT SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF IT.  FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EDGES OF THE
STRATUS AND TO THE EAST MAY AGAIN BE DENSE...BUT WE SHOULD SEE
VISIBILITIES 1-2SM UNDER THE STRATUS LIKE WE HAD THIS MORNING.
BURN-OFF IN THE MORNING SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN 16-20Z...WITH
SOME LOW CIGS REMAINING AT KCID AND KDBQ A FEW MORE HOURS.
..LE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

LE/12

000
FXUS63 KDMX 212057
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
258 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE FOG AND STRATUS WAS SLOW TO DISSIPATE TODAY...WHICH IS TYPICAL
FOR NOVEMBER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE THIS
EVENING WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING. CONSIDERING THE RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL MOVING UP TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN. THE DIFFERENCE
TONIGHT IS EXPECT LOWS TO OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN RISING
READINGS THEREAFTER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN WITH RISING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE DEPTH...IT STILL LIKELY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN
PRODUCTION. DRIZZLE RATHER WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF
ANYTHING OCCURS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIFT NORTH BY EARLY
SUN AND WITH WEAK LIFT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL AS MUCH AS SAT AM
HOURS WHEN FOG LASTED UNTIL APPROX 11 AM...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE SOME MODIFICATION WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL KEEP SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MORNING
NORTHWEST NEARER A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THE
DAY THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS TO BE WARMER ON SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME
CONCERN THAT GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORNING FOG AND SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS TRACKING LOW FARTHER NORTH AND THEN WINGS IT SOUTHEAST
WHILE GEM/EURO CONTINUE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND THEN FOCUS
ENERGY NORTHEAST OVER TIME. GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD A LINE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE GEM/EURO HAVE BETTER CHANCES
FOR ANY SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
LATE DAY MONDAY...HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER CHANCES FOR
NOW PRIMARILY DUE TO LACK OF ANY STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AND
SOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH STORM EVOLUTION. LOW OCCLUDES EARLY ON
TUESDAY...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND LOW AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
MIXING IN WITH LIGHT RAIN WEST SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY. AREA OF BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
LOW...AND FAR NORTHWEST AREAS MAY NEED SOME ATTENTION LATE TUES
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  PRESENTLY
NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY
THURSDAY SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS RATHER COLD...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. SCT FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. A
COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
A FAST MOVING RIDGE HEADS EAST OF THE AREA...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS WITH A QUICK WARM UP FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
CONSERVATIVELY PLACED IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER WITH FOG AND LOW CIGS LINGERING MUCH OF THE
MORNING. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME AREAS
MAY NOT REACH VFR CONDITIONS. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO IFR AND LIFR
CEILINGS. POSSIBLE THAT IF CIGS DEVELOP EARLY THAT IT COULD DETER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WHERE AS IT WAS THE DENSE FOG THAT
DEVELOPED FIRST LAST NIGHT...THEN THE CIGS. LIFR VISIBILITIES STILL
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR KMCW AND KALO WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING AND MAY ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR BEGINS TO
WORK IN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LIKELY WILL TAKE TIME TO SCOUR OUR THE
MOISTURE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...DONAVON

000
FXUS63 KDMX 211740 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER ABOUT THREE FOURTHS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF THREE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS KS/MO ATTM...WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD
INTO IOWA TODAY...THOUGH MAY NOT RESULT IN SOLID CLOUD COVER UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY FOG BURNS OFF...AND HOW PREVALENT CLOUDS
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A MOS BLEND.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACTING ON THE COLUMN TONIGHT...WILL DEEPEN AND
RAISE THE MOIST LAYER...LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AS
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ENCROACHES ON IOWA LATE
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY HELP
PROVIDE ENOUGH EXTRA LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THEM RAISED BY LATER SHIFTS. THIS FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DAMPENS OUT AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS QUICKLY IN BEHIND IT.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE EASTWARD MOMENTUM OF THE SURFACE FRONT ENDS
BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL IOWA...AND ACTUALLY PULLS BACK TO THE
WEST. WHILE FORCING MECHANISMS RETREAT OR PULL AWAY FROM
IOWA...EXPECT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPORARILY.

HEADING INTO THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...THERE IS
STILL A SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND PATH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEFS/SREF ARE
FARTHEST NORTH AND FASTEST...WHILE THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE EC AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH THE EC CLOSER TO THE NAM. FROM WHAT I CAN TELL...INDIVIDUAL
MODELS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THEIR SAME TUNE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WITHOUT A CLEAR INDICATION OF WHICH IS RIGHT...I HAVE OPTED TO USE A
CANADIAN/EC BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD. THE RESULT IS INCREASING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING THEM TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT...SO MAY NEED TO
ADD THUNDER MENTION AT SOME POINT IF THAT INDICATION REMAINS IN THE
PICTURE. WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION PREFERRED...WILL HAVE GENERALLY
WARMER TEMPS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WE FINALLY GET ON BACKSIDE OF
SYSTEM. SO HAVE KEPT PTYPE AS RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME
SNOW COULD ENTER THE PICTURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF. POPS WEDNESDAY
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS EVEN MORE. TURKEY DAY
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
TYPICAL FOR NOVEMBER WITH FOG AND LOW CIGS LINGERING MUCH OF THE
MORNING. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME AREAS
MAY NOT REACH VFR CONDITIONS. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO IFR AND LIFR
CEILINGS. POSSIBLE THAT IF CIGS DEVELOP EARLY THAT IT COULD DETER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WHERE AS IT WAS THE DENSE FOG THAT
DEVELOPED FIRST LAST NIGHT...THEN THE CIGS. LIFR VISIBILITIES STILL
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR KMCW AND KALO WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING AND MAY ALLOW
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR BEGINS TO
WORK IN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LIKELY WILL TAKE TIME TO SCOUR OUR THE
MOISTURE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOYER/BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MOYER
AVIATION...DONAVON

000
FXUS63 KDVN 211635
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1035 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...
FOG HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED...WITH VISIBILITIES ABOVE A QUARTER
MILE AT ALL BUT A FEW LOCATIONS. THUS...ALLOWED FOG ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE BACK AT 10 AM. THE STRATUS DECK WITH CIGS AROUND 25HFT OVER
MAINLY THE IOWA COUNTIES IS GOING TO BE TOUGHER. LOOKING AT THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING...IT IS GOING TO TAKE GETTING ABOVE THE MID 40S
WITH SOME MIXING AND WINDS TO GET RID OF THAT STRATUS
DECK...THOUGH IT DOES HELP THAT THE 925MB FLOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST BODILY SHOVE
THE STRATUS DECK TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT CLOUD DECK OF CONCERN THIS
MORNING IS THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER STRATUS OOZING NORTH OUT OF
MISSOURI. FOR THIS DECK HAVE RELIED A LITTLE MORE ON THE
MODELS...WHICH SLOWLY BRING IT INTO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A DISTANCE TIME TRACKING ON THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.AVIATION...
025HFT STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT AND THIN THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MAY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 20-21Z.
WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY TO SEE IF WE ARE GETTING MUCH MIXING
TO BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

LE

000
FXUS63 KDMX 211141
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
539 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER ABOUT THREE FOURTHS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF THREE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS KS/MO ATTM...WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD
INTO IOWA TODAY...THOUGH MAY NOT RESULT IN SOLID CLOUD COVER UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY FOG BURNS OFF...AND HOW PREVALENT CLOUDS
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A MOS BLEND.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACTING ON THE COLUMN TONIGHT...WILL DEEPEN AND
RAISE THE MOIST LAYER...LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AS
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ENCROACHES ON IOWA LATE
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY HELP
PROVIDE ENOUGH EXTRA LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THEM RAISED BY LATER SHIFTS. THIS FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DAMPENS OUT AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS QUICKLY IN BEHIND IT.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE EASTWARD MOMENTUM OF THE SURFACE FRONT ENDS
BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL IOWA...AND ACTUALLY PULLS BACK TO THE
WEST. WHILE FORCING MECHANISMS RETREAT OR PULL AWAY FROM
IOWA...EXPECT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPORARILY.

HEADING INTO THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...THERE IS
STILL A SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND PATH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEFS/SREF ARE
FARTHEST NORTH AND FASTEST...WHILE THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE EC AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ARE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH THE EC CLOSER TO THE NAM. FROM WHAT I CAN TELL...INDIVIDUAL
MODELS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THEIR SAME TUNE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WITHOUT A CLEAR INDICATION OF WHICH IS RIGHT...I HAVE OPTED TO USE A
CANADIAN/EC BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD. THE RESULT IS INCREASING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING THEM TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT...SO MAY NEED TO
ADD THUNDER MENTION AT SOME POINT IF THAT INDICATION REMAINS IN THE
PICTURE. WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION PREFERRED...WILL HAVE GENERALLY
WARMER TEMPS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WE FINALLY GET ON BACKSIDE OF
SYSTEM. SO HAVE KEPT PTYPE AS RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME
SNOW COULD ENTER THE PICTURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF. POPS WEDNESAY
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS EVEN MORE. TURKEY DAY
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SAT TO 06Z SUN/...
VISIBILITIES IN THE TANK THIS MORNING EAST AND SOUTH OF KFOD...WITH
SLOW IMPROVEMENT BY 16Z. WILL HAVE BETTER VSBY AND MIXING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT COULD STILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN HZ
IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT VSBY AT OR ABOVE
6SM. STRATOCU SPREADING NORTH OVER KS/MO ATTM WILL MOVE OVER TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT A RETURN TO LOW
CLOUDS AND LOW TO MEDIUM VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFT 00-03Z. COULD EVEN
HAVE SOME DRIZZLE AROUND AFTER 06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOYER/BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MOYER
AVIATION...MOYER

000
FXUS63 KDMX 210859
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
259 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER ABOUT THREE FOURTHS
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF THREE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE
REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN
STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS KS/MO ATTM...WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD
INTO IOWA TODAY...THOUGH MAY NOT RESULT IN SOLID CLOUD COVER UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS THEY ARE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY FOG BURNS OFF...AND HOW PREVALENT CLOUDS
MOVING NORTH FROM MISSOURI WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED A MOS BLEND.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACTING ON THE COLUMN TONIGHT...WILL DEEPEN AND
RAISE THE MOIST LAYER...LIKELY RESULTING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AS
THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ENCROACHES ON IOWA LATE
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY HELP
PROVIDE ENOUGH EXTRA LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN.
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THEM RAISED BY LATER SHIFTS. THIS FIRST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DAMPENS OUT AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS QUICKLY IN BEHIND IT.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE EASTWARD MOMENTUM OF THE SURFACE FRONT ENDS
BEFORE ENTERING CENTRAL IOWA...AND ACTUALLY PULLS BACK TO THE
WEST. WHILE FORCING MECHANISMS RETREAT OR PULL AWAY FROM
IOWA...EXPECT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPORARILY.

HEADING INTO THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD...THERE IS
STILL A SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND PATH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS/GEFS/SREF ARE FARTHEST
NORTH AND FASTEST...WHILE THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND FARTHEST
SOUTH. THE EC AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ARE IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE
EC CLOSER TO THE NAM. FROM WHAT I CAN TELL...INDIVIDUAL MODELS
HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THEIR SAME TUNE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WITHOUT
A CLEAR INDICATION OF WHICH IS RIGHT...I HAVE OPTED TO USE A
CANADIAN/EC BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD. THE RESULT IS INCREASING POPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING THEM TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT...SO MAY NEED
TO ADD THUNDER MENTION AT SOME POINT IF THAT INDICATION REMAINS IN
THE PICTURE. WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION PREFERRED...WILL HAVE
GENERALLY WARMER TEMPS UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WE FINALLY GET ON
BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM. SO HAVE KEPT PTYPE AS RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN SOME SNOW COULD ENTER THE PICTURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF. POPS
WEDNESAY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS EVEN MORE.
TURKEY DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SAT TO 06Z SUN/...
VSBYS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHER. THEREFORE STILL
ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW
STRATUS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-
DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOYER/BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MOYER
AVIATION...BEERENDS

000
FXUS63 KDVN 210820
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
220 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS
AND TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS VERY CLOSE. RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS
INCREASING OVER THE CWA. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE PLAINS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRODUCING VEIL OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
NEB TO ND. ..HAASE..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FORECAST FOCUS IS THE FOG THIS MORNING THEN WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
TONIGHT...AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE WITH DENSE
FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 16Z OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS
FOG/STRATUS INCREASING OVER THE CWA WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN
EASTERN IA ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...
CALM WINDS AND TEMP/DEWPOINTS SPREAD VERY CLOSE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES
AROUND MID MORNING EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
50S... SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. BELIEVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE MAY
BE A TAD TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE FOGGY START TO THE DAY.

CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ECMWF/GFS/GEM BRING LIGHT QPF
INTO OUR NW CWA LATE TONIGHT. THE UKMET/NAM ARE DRY SO THE END
RESULT IS I WILL MAINTAIN THE PATCHY DRIZZLE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA HAVING MIN TEMPS NEAR
TO ABOVE 40.

..HAASE..

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LONG TERM ONCE AGAIN WILL FOCUS ITS ATTENTION ON THE STORM WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FOR THE PERIODS SURROUNDING TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY...AND
STRENGTHENED IT AS WELL. OTHER THAN THAT...THE TENDENCIES OF THE GFS
BEING FASTEST AND WEAKEST...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER...AND THE UKMET
STRONGEST AND SLOWEST ARE HOLDING TRUE ONCE AGAIN.  ALL HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH...WITH THE UKMET ONCE AGAIN THE MOST SOUTHERN...AND
THE GFS THE FARTHEST NORTH.  THIS MODEL SPREAD AT 00Z TUESDAY MSLP
FORECASTS HAS THE GFS IN SOUTHWEST MN...EC IN CENTRAL KS...AND THE
UKMET IN SOUTHWEST OK. THAT IS A PRETTY WIDE SPREAD IN A 72 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.  OUR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE EC AND UK RUNS...SLOWER AND STRONGER WHICH MATCHES THE TRENDS OF
OTHER MODELS.

PRIOR TO THE STORM...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH FORCING REMAINING MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA. THE
QUESTIONS FOR OUR AREA WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND ANY BRUSHING GLANCE
OF PCPN CHANCES.  OTHER THAN THE GFS...MODELS SHOW THE FORCING TO
REMAIN WELL WEST...AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND DRIZZLE
THREATS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO LOOK MILD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING TO PUMP INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND MILD. THIS ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS WHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE A STRONG BET. SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD REMAIN MIXED AS WINDS STAY UP ABOVE 8
KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER...THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING MUCH
LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS PREFERRED...I
RAISED TUESDAYS HIGHS UP AS FEW DEGREES AS WELL SINCE COLD ADVECTION
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT UP
TO HIGH CHANCE TUESDAY AND MODERATE CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT.

A TRANSITION TO A MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS ARE OF LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME...THUS OUR LOW POPS FOR A MIX WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  FURTHER OUT...THE TREND TOWARD RAPID MODIFICATION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED ON THE ECMWF RUN...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE SHOWN FOR LATE
WEEK IN THE GFS. NO CHANGES MADE...BUT A WARMUP LOOKS POSSIBLE.
...ERVIN...

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z THEN RAPID
IMPROVMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. MVFR CIGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR KCID/KDBQ. BELIEVE
THAT KMLI/KBRL WILL HAVE CIGS ABOVE 3K FT BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS.

..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

HAASE/ERVIN

000
FXUS63 KDMX 210534
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES DROPPING FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS
WITH MANY SITES IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE AND A FEW ALREADY BELOW A
MILE. THEREFORE WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREA
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER AND VSBYS HAVE BEEN DROPPING THE
MOST SO FAR.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN A NARROW AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA TODAY.  THIS HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CU AND AREAS OF HAZE AS WELL.  AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT...WL SEE WEAK
RIDGING PERSIST ACRS THE AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WL BE PUSHING TO
THE EAST OF THE STATE BY MORNING.  WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...IT APPEARS FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACRS THE CWA ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE HAZE
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.  HAVE INCLUDED FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OR SO OF THE CWA WHERE MOST FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.  IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL FORM AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SORT OF ADVISORY
ISSUED OVERNIGHT AS LOCATIONS DROP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...EXTENDED MODELS STARTING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF COMING TOGETHER FOR NEXT WEEK FROM MONDAY INTO
THURSDAY. GFS IS STILL A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH HAVE
A VERY ACTIVE AND COLDER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA OUT AHEAD THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 12Z
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH DOWN EVEN FURTHER FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH 12Z GFS HINTING ON TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SEEMS MORE REALISTIC AND LEANED
MORE TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION DURING THE EXTENDED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHT WARM UP WITH SOME WEAK WAA AT THE
SURFACE. TWEAK TEMPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW. INCREASING CLOUDS BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS
BECOMING SATURATED AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
KEPT WITH MENTION OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WENT DRY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GFS BUFR AND ECMWF SOUNDINGS HAVE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING BELOW 850MB DURING THE TIME FRAME...AND WENT WITH RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE MENTIONED OF SNOW/RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE CWA.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A DECENT RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BY THANKSGIVING AND DOMINATING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SO...AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKING A DRY AND COOL HOLIDAY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VSBYS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHER. THEREFORE STILL ANTICIPATE
FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-
DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.


&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS