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000
FXUS63 KGLD 212120
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 12Z
MONDAY...NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z TUESDAY...NEBRASKA AND
IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE ONLY OUTLIER WITH A
SECONDARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE GLD/DDC FORECAST AREAS BY 00Z
TUESDAY AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO FAVOR ALL BUT THE UKMET SOLUTION.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE STRATUS/FOG/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THIS PRETTY WELL IN HAND AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
GENERAL CHANGES WERE TO SHIFT THE POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THE
EVENT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE LESS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO
EXPECTED...MAINLY EAST OF A MCCOOK TO HILL CITY LINE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE FALLING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE DAY. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. I DID RAISE TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE ADJUSTED TRACK WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND
WARMER 850/2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA AS
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING EXISTS. LOW END WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL LIMIT WARMUP
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE...ALBEIT
FLATTENING FRIDAY MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
1044 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SOUTH WINDS BROUGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FOG/STRATUS WAS JUST EAST
OF KMCK. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. LATEST
RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT IFR CONDITIONS TO BE EAST OF KMCK. OTHERWISE...
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER KGLD/KMCK. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z WHICH WILL SWITCH SURFACE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT WESTWARD EXTENT
OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS63 KDDC 212115
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
S/WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A +80KT UPPER LEVEL JET...JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...IS STREAMING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL S/WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
A FAIRLY DRY FROPA DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT ITSELF BEING FAIRLY WEAK. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PUSH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID DAY
MONDAY AND ALONG WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT THE DAY PRIOR. ALTHOUGH,
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH COULD BE A KEY FACTOR. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A CLOSED
OFF LOW DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA RESULTING IN THE
BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION STAYING WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
HOWEVER, THE UKMET SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME. AS A RESULT, WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE MARGINALLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85 AROUND 5C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOWS IN THE 30S(F)
ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINS WORKING IT`S
WAY INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. FOR SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FROPA
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5C
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES TO NEAR 7C ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES WILL QUICKLY, BUT BRIEFLY,
RETURN AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN
PUSHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S(F) CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S(F) MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
UPPER 40S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER. PLAN
TO MAKE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
DAYS 3-7...
QUESTIONS IN THE FORECAST CENTER MAINLY AROUND TEMPERATURES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS EVENT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE DDC FA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (MON NIGHT/TUESDAY). AS IT APPEARS
NOW...SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE DDC FA AS THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM
WILL IMPACT NEBRASKA. AN ARCTIC AIR SOURCE IS NON-EXISTENT WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM...SO WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY...THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTICE. DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR QUICKLY TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR (NOT COLD)
INTO KANSAS. AGAIN...FOR WESTERN KANSAS...THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO BE MODIFIED BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES THANKSGIVING DAY VS. WEDNESDAY.
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR A SOLID WARM-UP WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN WARMER THAN THAT SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IN THE DAY 8-10 TIME
FRAME...UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH WHITE NOISE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE IMPORTANT SUNDAY (29TH) TRAVEL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
A RETURN TO LIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE ROUGHLY 10-16Z TIME
FRAME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. DENSE FOG IS ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AT ANY ONE OF THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF TERMINALS (KDDC, KGCK, KHYS).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 53 33 52 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 35 55 30 48 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 33 55 30 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 35 55 32 52 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 37 53 33 48 / 0 0 0 20
P28 43 57 38 58 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN32/25/25
[top]
000
FXUS63 KICT 212111
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SUNSHINE HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...AND WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TONIGHT:
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WHETHER PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL REDEVELOP. SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW TO HANDLE THIS MOISTURE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS EXTREME
WRN KS MOVES INTO WRN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KS BY EARLY ON SUN. PREFER
TO GO WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS WHICH KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT. SO
WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION...ESPECIALLY FROM 09-14Z/SUN. COULD ALSO
SEE LOW LAYERS SATURATE ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS
EARLY ON SUN...SO WILL KEEP THIS MENTION AS WELL.
KETCHAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TODAY...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE BEST DYNAMICS ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND ECMWF ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S CONSISTENCY OVER SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL
MEAN THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST CHUNK OF COLD AIR COMES SOUTH OVER
THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR
COMING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS. THERE ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO 850MB
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STAY
TUNED...
SCHRECK
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES NEAR KICT/KHUT/
KCNU....WITH BOTH KRSL/KSLN BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AS WINDS START TO
INCREASE. NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WANT TO HANDLE THE MVFR TO
NEAR IFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE LOW LAYER CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT AT THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SO WILL GO WITH THIS TREND FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD DECK BREAKING UP SOME.
AFTER 06Z/SUN...LACK OF MIXING TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 COULD
AGAIN LEAD TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FOR THE
KICT/KHUT/KSLN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PREFER THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD TREND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WHEN IT COMES TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINGS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON
SUN....AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO MIX THINGS OUT.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 44 57 40 61 / 10 10 0 20
HUTCHINSON 44 56 40 60 / 10 10 10 20
NEWTON 44 55 39 59 / 10 10 10 20
ELDORADO 42 57 38 59 / 10 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 44 58 42 61 / 10 10 0 20
RUSSELL 38 55 33 54 / 10 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 41 54 35 54 / 10 10 0 20
SALINA 41 57 39 58 / 10 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 44 57 40 59 / 10 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 45 63 44 61 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 44 61 42 59 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KTOP 212102
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
302 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP OVER KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SOME WARM ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND
PRODUCING THE CLOUD COVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.
IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WHILE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY. IT IS NOT THE GREATEST FOG SETUP...BUT WON`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG AND PERHAPS A BIT OF
DRIZZLE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL LIFT DUE TO PVA AND JET DIVERGENCE...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER TO THE NORTH OVER NEBRASKA WHILE KANSAS SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY DRY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND EC DIG THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN IA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE
GFS HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK...DIGGING THE 5H TROUGH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTM...I`M LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM AND EC TRACK...THIS WILL PROVIDE MUCH OF THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. IT MAY GET COLD ENOUGH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST AREA FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALONG WITH THE BETTER TROWAL
FORMATION. I DID NOT PLACE IN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IS
QUICK ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A INCH OR
TWO OF WET SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT.
AS THE 5H TROUGH LIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW-LEVEL
CAA...CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN
KS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINING WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM UP AGAIN AS A DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...MAY
BE A BIT WARMER IS SKIES ARE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY.
GARGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AFFECTING ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY
PASS NORTH WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL BREAKS...
AND PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS PER A FEW OF THE
UPSTREAM OBS READING BELOW 1K FOOT CIGS. FORECAST GETS TRICKY
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND IT APPEARS
STRATUS WILL BE FAVORED WITH CIGS LESS THAN 1K FEET FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
FORECAST SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT ANY INCREASE IN DRY AIR MAY
ALLOW CEILINGS TO BREAK UP TO VFR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT
BY MID MORNING REGARDLESS.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
BARJENBRUCH/GARGAN
000
FXUS63 KICT 211752 CCA
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES NEAR KICT/KHUT/
KCNU....WITH BOTH KRSL/KSLN BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AS WINDS START TO
INCREASE. NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WANT TO HANDLE THE MVFR TO
NEAR IFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE LOW LAYER CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT AT THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SO WILL GO WITH THIS TREND FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD DECK BREAKING UP SOME.
AFTER 06Z/SUN...LACK OF MIXING TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 COULD
AGAIN LEAD TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FOR THE
KICT/KHUT/KSLN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PREFER THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD TREND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WHEN IT COMES TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINGS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON
SUN....AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO MIX THINGS OUT.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBILITY AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCATION...AS WELL AS DRIZZLE HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT THE DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. HAVE
INCREASED THE FOG CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST KS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSERT DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS AS THE MOIST
AIRMASS SEEMS TO LINGER FOR AWHILE. DUE TO THE DRIZZLE AND
FOG...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
DUNTEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT NOW TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUILD-DOWN THIS AM AS A RESULT WITH SOME IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKS
LESS LIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH TODAY BENEATH STRONG INVERSION FROM
800-700 MB. THE GFS AND NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/W OF I-135 AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOKS
LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 55 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 56 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 58 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 57 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 55 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 56 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 55 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 59 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 59 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 211751
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
..AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES NEAR KICT/KHUT/
KCNU....WITH BOTH KRSL/KSLN BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AS WINDS START TO
INCREASE. NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WANT TO HANDLE THE MVFR TO
NEAR IFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE LOW LAYER CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT AT THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SO WILL GO WITH THIS TREND FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD DECK BREAKING UP SOME.
AFTER 06Z/SUN...LACK OF MIXING TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 COULD
AGAIN LEAD TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FOR THE
KICT/KHUT/KSLN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PREFER THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD TREND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WHEN IT COMES TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINGS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON
SUN....AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO MIX THINGS OUT.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBILITY AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCATION...AS WELL AS DRIZZLE HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT THE DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. HAVE
INCREASED THE FOG CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST KS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSERT DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS AS THE MOIST
AIRMASS SEEMS TO LINGER FOR AWHILE. DUE TO THE DRIZZLE AND
FOG...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
DUNTEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT NOW TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUILD-DOWN THIS AM AS A RESULT WITH SOME IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKS
LESS LIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH TODAY BENEATH STRONG INVERSION FROM
800-700 MB. THE GFS AND NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/W OF I-135 AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOKS
LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 55 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 56 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 58 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 57 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 55 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 56 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 55 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 59 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 59 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 211744
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
221 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
0430Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. 00Z RAOBS INDICATED SOME WARMING OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. OF SOME INTEREST IS DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE OBSERVED AT
DDC. WITH THIS LOCATION CURRENTLY DIRECTLY UNDER SFC RIDGE COULD SEE
A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CWA AS DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATION FOG THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION...BUT WINDS MAY
OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT. FOR NOW PLAN TO WAIT UNTIL
FORECAST ISSUANCE AND USE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO DETERMINE FOG
THREAT. OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...FAIRLY STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PEAKING
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY QUALITY MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY
LOOKS LIKELY. WITH LARGE T-TD SPREADS IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY THAT ANY
LEVEL COULD BE SATURATED AND ANY INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...SO
KEEPING CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT IN WINDS TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN THE WEST...AND SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS IN EASTERN CWA BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK TO
THE CLOUDS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO STALL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG/JUST
EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING STRATUS...AND
POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FG/-DZ POSSIBLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FRONTAL ZONES. IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THIS
TO DEVELOP...BUT LOWER 40 TDS NOT TO FAR FROM THE CWA SO THIS
SCENARIO NOT TOTALLY UNREASONABLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO LIMIT
HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET IN EASTERN CWA WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY
GOING FORECAST.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOST IMPORTANT AND UNFORTUNATELY MOST UNCERTAIN
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER WINTER
STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA. MODELS STILL SPREAD OUT IN TO NUMEROUS
DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH THIS STORM. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
H5/SFC LOW STRENGTHENING AND OCCLUDING OVER KANSAS...WHILE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO MORE NORTHERLY AND PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH. LOOKING
AT OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS...THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE A MUCH SLOWER
VERSION OF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO BE DEEPER
AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER VERSIONS OF THE GFS. THIS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
MAKE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT AS DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SIMPLY
THINGS LIKE TIMING AND TRACK...BUT OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS ARE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES. WHILE THE
GEFS HAS 3 MEMBERS (OUT OF 20) THAT SUGGEST A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
AND SLOWER SYSTEM...21Z SREF DATA FIRMLY IN MORE PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER
CAMP WITH MEAN ACTUALLY SHOWING LITTLE SPREAD IN H5 SOLUTION UNTIL
SYSTEM GETS OVER MISSOURI. 12Z/00Z CANADIAN MEAN KIND OF LEANING
THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE BEEN THE MOST
STABLE WITH THERE SOLUTION...BUT IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA WHICH PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL THE LAST TWO
SNOWSTORMS.
FOR ALL THE REASONS LISTED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SET
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW ALTHOUGH SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE
BETWEEN AN ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTION WOULD BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT AS IT
WOULD INCORPORATE MORE OF A WORST CASE SCENARIO WHILE STILL PUTTING
A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA. CANNOT GET TOO EXCITED TO
MUCH ABOUT THINGS LIKE TROWALS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHEN THE
CONFIDENCE OF A CLOSED LOW EVEN BEING THERE IS LOW.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS MAY DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALL AGREE
THAT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW CREATING
A BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM IF ANYTHING FALLS. WHILE ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD
SUPPORT A MUCH DRIER FORECAST AM GOING TO TRY TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS SYSTEM NOT EVEN ON SHORE AT THIS TIME. WILL UP POPS
SLIGHTLY WHERE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE CHANCES ARE BEST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
JRM
&&
.AVIATION...
1044 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SOUTH WINDS BROUGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FOG/STRATUS WAS JUST EAST
OF KMCK. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. LATEST
RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT IFR CONDITIONS TO BE EAST OF KMCK. OTHERWISE...
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER KGLD/KMCK. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z WHICH WILL SWITCH SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT WESTWARD EXENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TONIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 211725
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1125 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AFFECTING ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY
PASS NORTH WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL BREAKS...
AND PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS PER A FEW OF THE
UPSTREAM OBS READING BELOW 1K FOOT CIGS. FORECAST GETS TRICKY
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND IT APPEARS
STRATUS WILL BE FAVORED WITH CIGS LESS THAN 1K FEET FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
FORECAST SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT ANY INCREASE IN DRY AIR MAY
ALLOW CEILINGS TO BREAK UP TO VFR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT
BY MID MORNING REGARDLESS.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION... 09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL
TX...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH
MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER KS MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS IN PLACE. SFC OBS STILL SHOW A WEAK
SFC RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY
DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. REALLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS DEALING
WITH FOG AND DEVELOPING STRATUS AS WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS REMAINS
TRAPPED WITH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY A WEAK EML. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SATURATION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL FOR DRIZZLE WITH A DEEP STABLE LAYER
AND WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THAT DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE MOISTURE THAT STRATUS IS THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT.
WITH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE A
LITTLE TRICKY. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH SOME WAA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MIN
TEMPS UP IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS. MODELS
NO LONGER BRING A FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH QG FORCING WEAKENING
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AGAIN WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE WAVE AND TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MILD WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS OVER THE GFS. WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND...EXPECT THE
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH ACROSS NEB. BEST CHANCE POPS LOOK
TO BE MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH DECENT QG FORCING
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE CLOSES OFF. SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
SIMILAR TO THE LAST CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE LACKING A TAP INTO
DEEP COLD AIR AND 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BARLEY FALL BELOW 0C.
WITH THE BETTER DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW FOR THIS
EVENT.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THINK COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND
FORECAST SHOWS THIS NICELY SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES BEYOND WED.
WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEATHER GOING ON TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW...THE WEATHER
LOOKS IDEAL FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS LOCALLY AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 211638
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1038 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBILITY AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCATION...AS WELL AS DRIZZLE HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT THE DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. HAVE
INCREASED THE FOG CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST KS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSERT DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS AS THE MOIST
AIRMASS SEEMS TO LINGER FOR AWHILE. DUE TO THE DRIZZLE AND
FOG...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
DUNTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT NOW TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUILD-DOWN THIS AM AS A RESULT WITH SOME IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKS
LESS LIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH TODAY BENEATH STRONG INVERSION FROM
800-700 MB. THE GFS AND NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/W OF I-135 AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOKS
LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 55 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 56 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 58 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 57 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 55 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 56 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 55 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 59 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 59 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 211329
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
729 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...IMPROVING FOG
SITUATION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE 5 MILES OR GREATER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS OF 2500 TO 3500 FT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TX...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER KS MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE. SFC OBS STILL SHOW A WEAK SFC RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY
DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. REALLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS DEALING
WITH FOG AND DEVELOPING STRATUS AS WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS REMAINS
TRAPPED WITH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY A WEAK EML. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SATURATION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL FOR DRIZZLE WITH A DEEP STABLE LAYER
AND WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THAT DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE MOISTURE THAT STRATUS IS THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT.
WITH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE A
LITTLE TRICKY. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH SOME WAA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MIN
TEMPS UP IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS. MODELS
NO LONGER BRING A FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH QG FORCING WEAKENING
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AGAIN WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE WAVE AND TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MILD WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS OVER THE GFS. WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND...EXPECT THE
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH ACROSS NEB. BEST CHANCE POPS LOOK
TO BE MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH DECENT QG FORCING
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE CLOSES OFF. SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
SIMILAR TO THE LAST CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE LACKING A TAP INTO
DEEP COLD AIR AND 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BARLEY FALL BELOW 0C.
WITH THE BETTER DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW FOR THIS
EVENT.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THINK COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND
FORECAST SHOWS THIS NICELY SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES BEYOND WED.
WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEATHER GOING ON TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW...THE WEATHER
LOOKS IDEAL FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS LOCALLY AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
WOLTERS
AVIATION...
A FEW ROUNDS OF GROUND FOG ALREADY PASSING OVER TOP ASOS...BUT IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STRUGGLED TO STAY PERSISTENT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPS WELL BEYOND CROSSOVER LEVELS SUGGEST LIFR FG
STILL LIKELY AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE
WOULD KEEP LIMITING CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE LEVEL AND DURATION OF THIS IS
IN QUESTION. GIVEN NARROW BAND OF LOWER CEILINGS TO THE
SOUTH...WILL BRING THINGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/BARJENBRUCH
000
FXUS63 KICT 211143
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT NOW TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUILD-DOWN THIS AM AS A RESULT WITH SOME IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKS
LESS LIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH TODAY BENEATH STRONG INVERSION FROM
800-700 MB. THE GFS AND NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/W OF I-135 AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOKS
LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 58 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 58 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 61 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 58 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 56 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 58 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 58 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 62 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 62 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 63 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ047>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 211056
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
356 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
221 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
0430Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. 00Z RAOBS INDICATED SOME WARMING OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. OF SOME INTEREST IS DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE OBSERVED AT
DDC. WITH THIS LOCATION CURRENTLY DIRECTLY UNDER SFC RIDGE COULD SEE
A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CWA AS DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATION FOG THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION...BUT WINDS MAY
OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT. FOR NOW PLAN TO WAIT UNTIL
FORECAST ISSUANCE AND USE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO DETERMINE FOG
THREAT. OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...FAIRLY STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PEAKING
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY QUALITY MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY
LOOKS LIKELY. WITH LARGE T-TD SPREADS IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY THAT ANY
LEVEL COULD BE SATURATED AND ANY INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...SO
KEEPING CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT IN WINDS TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN THE WEST...AND SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS IN EASTERN CWA BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK TO
THE CLOUDS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO STALL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG/JUST
EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING STRATUS...AND
POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FG/-DZ POSSIBLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FRONTAL ZONES. IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THIS
TO DEVELOP...BUT LOWER 40 TDS NOT TO FAR FROM THE CWA SO THIS
SCENARIO NOT TOTALLY UNREASONABLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO LIMIT
HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET IN EASTERN CWA WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY
GOING FORECAST.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOST IMPORTANT AND UNFORTUNATELY MOST UNCERTAIN
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER WINTER
STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA. MODELS STILL SPREAD OUT IN TO NUMEROUS
DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH THIS STORM. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
H5/SFC LOW STRENGTHENING AND OCCLUDING OVER KANSAS...WHILE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO MORE NORTHERLY AND PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH. LOOKING
AT OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS...THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE A MUCH SLOWER
VERSION OF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO BE DEEPER
AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER VERSIONS OF THE GFS. THIS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
MAKE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT AS DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SIMPLY
THINGS LIKE TIMING AND TRACK...BUT OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS ARE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES. WHILE THE
GEFS HAS 3 MEMBERS (OUT OF 20) THAT SUGGEST A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
AND SLOWER SYSTEM...21Z SREF DATA FIRMLY IN MORE PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER
CAMP WITH MEAN ACTUALLY SHOWING LITTLE SPREAD IN H5 SOLUTION UNTIL
SYSTEM GETS OVER MISSOURI. 12Z/00Z CANADIAN MEAN KIND OF LEANING
THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE BEEN THE MOST
STABLE WITH THERE SOLUTION...BUT IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA WHICH PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL THE LAST TWO
SNOWSTORMS.
FOR ALL THE REASONS LISTED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SET
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW ALTHOUGH SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE
BETWEEN AN ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTION WOULD BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT AS IT
WOULD INCORPORATE MORE OF A WORST CASE SCENARIO WHILE STILL PUTTING
A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA. CANNOT GET TOO EXCITED TO
MUCH ABOUT THINGS LIKE TROWALS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHEN THE
CONFIDENCE OF A CLOSED LOW EVEN BEING THERE IS LOW.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS MAY DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALL AGREE
THAT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW CREATING
A BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM IF ANYTHING FALLS. WHILE ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD
SUPPORT A MUCH DRIER FORECAST AM GOING TO TRY TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS SYSTEM NOT EVEN ON SHORE AT THIS TIME. WILL UP POPS
SLIGHTLY WHERE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE CHANCES ARE BEST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
JRM
&&
.AVIATION...
356 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
KGLD AND KMCK IN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE INDICATING SOME STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTING NORTH OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS BUT LATEST TRENDS INDICATE IT SHOULD STAY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE EAST BUT TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A LACK OF LOW
LEVEL RH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT WIND TO SUBSIDE DUE
TO DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WIND TO THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 210931
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TX...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER KS MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE. SFC OBS STILL SHOW A WEAK SFC RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY
DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. REALLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS DEALING
WITH FOG AND DEVELOPING STRATUS AS WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS REMAINS
TRAPPED WITH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY A WEAK EML. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SATURATION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL FOR DRIZZLE WITH A DEEP STABLE LAYER
AND WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THAT DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE MOISTURE THAT STRATUS IS THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT.
WITH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE A
LITTLE TRICKY. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH SOME WAA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MIN
TEMPS UP IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS. MODELS
NO LONGER BRING A FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH QG FORCING WEAKENING
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AGAIN WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE WAVE AND TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MILD WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS OVER THE GFS. WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND...EXPECT THE
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH ACROSS NEB. BEST CHANCE POPS LOOK
TO BE MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH DECENT QG FORCING
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE CLOSES OFF. SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
SIMILAR TO THE LAST CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE LACKING A TAP INTO
DEEP COLD AIR AND 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BARLEY FALL BELOW 0C.
WITH THE BETTER DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW FOR THIS
EVENT.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THINK COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND
FORECAST SHOWS THIS NICELY SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES BEYOND WED.
WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEATHER GOING ON TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW...THE WEATHER
LOOKS IDEAL FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS LOCALLY AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
WOLTERS
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW ROUNDS OF GROUND FOG ALREADY PASSING OVER TOP ASOS...BUT IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STRUGGLED TO STAY PERSISTENT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPS WELL BEYOND CROSSOVER LEVELS SUGGEST LIFR FG
STILL LIKELY AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE
WOULD KEEP LIMITING CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE LEVEL AND DURATION OF THIS IS
IN QUESTION. GIVEN NARROW BAND OF LOWER CEILINGS TO THE
SOUTH...WILL BRING THINGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 210924
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
LEE TROUGHING IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO AS
EVIDENCED BY PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1MB/HR. WINDS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS ARE RESPONDING AND ARE NOW LARGELY FROM THE S-SW. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO CENTRAL KS AND SOME LOW CLOUD IS EVIDENT ON 11-3.9
SATELLITE. THIS CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP AS IT ADVANCES INTO KANSAS
AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TO THE WEST SO IT SHOULDN`T BE MUCH
OF A PROBLEM TODAY. BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD TO START
THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE DDC FA.
AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY, SFC PRESSURE
FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN COLORADO. MID LEVELS WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AS WE WARM UP THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODEL WINDS FOR TODAY ARE FORECAST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER SW KS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ALMOST CERTAINLY UNDERDONE. AM EXPECTING
A BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY TONIGHT, THE UPR TROF WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. A 40-50KT LLJ WILL
SET UP AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS UP AND PROVIDE FOR A MILDER
NIGHT TONIGHT, TEMP-WISE. THE UPR TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN KS
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT AT THE SFC. THIS INITIAL TROF
IS PRETTY WEAK AND WITH A MUCH STRONGER TROF COMING INTO THE WEST ON
ITS HEALS, SFC WINDS WILL BE SORT OF TRICKY. MODELS SHOW A WIND
SHIFT SUNDAY BUT THEN BRING THEM RIGHT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONGER TROF MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES AND LEE TROFING RESUMES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE LIMITED AND THE TROF IS
COMING FROM A DIRECTION GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE TO PRECIP. -WRIGHT
DAYS 3-7...
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH...MOVING THE UPPER LOW OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS NOW HAS THE UPPER LOW COMING
OUT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN ITS FARTHER SOUTH TRACK. IT
STILL HAS THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE DRY SLOT
WILL BE IMPACTING AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT OVERLY COOL WITH TEMPERATURES LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY SO
A RAIN/SNOW MIX STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE SMALL POPS FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN PLACE FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE THE MAIN ISSUE. THE ECMWF SHOWS
WINDSPEEDS AT 850 MB INCREASING TO 40+ KNOTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SO
THEIR MAY BE A PERIOD WITH WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LATER PERIODS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FROM HAYS TO EAST OF DODGE CITY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY AROUND
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 38 53 35 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 60 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 61 36 55 34 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 62 36 56 34 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 58 37 53 35 / 0 0 0 10
P28 60 43 58 40 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN34/02/02
000
FXUS63 KGLD 210924
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
221 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
0430Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. 00Z RAOBS INDICATED SOME WARMING OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. OF SOME INTEREST IS DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE OBSERVED AT
DDC. WITH THIS LOCATION CURRENTLY DIRECTLY UNDER SFC RIDGE COULD SEE
A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CWA AS DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATION FOG THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION...BUT WINDS MAY
OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT. FOR NOW PLAN TO WAIT UNTIL
FORECAST ISSUANCE AND USE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO DETERMINE FOG
THREAT. OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...FAIRLY STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PEAKING
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY QUALITY MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY
LOOKS LIKELY. WITH LARGE T-TD SPREADS IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY THAT ANY
LEVEL COULD BE SATURATED AND ANY INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...SO
KEEPING CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT IN WINDS TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN THE WEST...AND SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS IN EASTERN CWA BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK TO
THE CLOUDS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO STALL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG/JUST
EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING STRATUS...AND
POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FG/-DZ POSSIBLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FRONTAL ZONES. IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THIS
TO DEVELOP...BUT LOWER 40 TDS NOT TO FAR FROM THE CWA SO THIS
SCENARIO NOT TOTALLY UNREASONABLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO LIMIT
HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET IN EASTERN CWA WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY
GOING FORECAST.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOST IMPORTANT AND UNFORTUNATELY MOST UNCERTAIN
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER WINTER
STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA. MODELS STILL SPREAD OUT IN TO NUMEROUS
DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH THIS STORM. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
H5/SFC LOW STRENGTHENING AND OCCLUDING OVER KANSAS...WHILE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO MORE NORTHERLY AND PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH. LOOKING
AT OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS...THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE A MUCH SLOWER
VERSION OF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO BE DEEPER
AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER VERSIONS OF THE GFS. THIS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
MAKE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT AS DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SIMPLY
THINGS LIKE TIMING AND TRACK...BUT OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS ARE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES. WHILE THE
GEFS HAS 3 MEMBERS (OUT OF 20) THAT SUGGEST A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
AND SLOWER SYSTEM...21Z SREF DATA FIRMLY IN MORE PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER
CAMP WITH MEAN ACTUALLY SHOWING LITTLE SPREAD IN H5 SOLUTION UNTIL
SYSTEM GETS OVER MISSOURI. 12Z/00Z CANADIAN MEAN KIND OF LEANING
THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE BEEN THE MOST
STABLE WITH THERE SOLUTION...BUT IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA WHICH PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL THE LAST TWO
SNOWSTORMS.
FOR ALL THE REASONS LISTED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SET
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW ALTHOUGH SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE
BETWEEN AN ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTION WOULD BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT AS IT
WOULD INCORPORATE MORE OF A WORST CASE SCENARIO WHILE STILL PUTTING
A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA. CANNOT GET TOO EXCITED TO
MUCH ABOUT THINGS LIKE TROWALS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHEN THE
CONFIDENCE OF A CLOSED LOW EVEN BEING THERE IS LOW.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS MAY DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALL AGREE
THAT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW CREATING
A BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM IF ANYTHING FALLS. WHILE ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD
SUPPORT A MUCH DRIER FORECAST AM GOING TO TRY TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS SYSTEM NOT EVEN ON SHORE AT THIS TIME. WILL UP POPS
SLIGHTLY WHERE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE CHANCES ARE BEST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
JRM
&&
.AVIATION...
409 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT BECOME GUSTY AROUND THE 15G25KT RANGE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
50
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 210913
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
..AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AS EXPECTED...00 UTC MODELS CAME IN WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL HAVE NOT BEEN TRACKING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. BELIEVE FOG WILL BE A COMBINATION OF
RADIATION...ADVECTION AND BUILD-DOWN PROCESSES. THIS SEEMS MOST
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF KHUT-KRSL. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 30S AT KRSL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 18
UTC WITH INCREASED MIXING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 58 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 58 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 61 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 58 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 56 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 58 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 58 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 62 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 62 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 63 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ047>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 210552
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW ROUNDS OF GROUND FOG ALREADY PASSING OVER TOP ASOS...BUT IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STRUGGLED TO STAY PERSISTENT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPS WELL BEYOND CROSSOVER LEVELS SUGGEST LIFR FG
STILL LIKELY AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE
WOULD KEEP LIMITING CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE LEVEL AND DURATION OF THIS IS
IN QUESTION. GIVEN NARROW BAND OF LOWER CEILINGS TO THE
SOUTH...WILL BRING THINGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
65
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY TRAPPED BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AS A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER IS IN PLACE OVER TEXAS...THE TROUGH PRODUCING
OUR WET WEATHER EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...
AND A LARGE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ON TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...PROVIDING DRY SINKING AIR...LIGHT
WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A STRONG INVERSION
WILL FORM OVER THESE AREAS AND TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AND ESSENTIALLY SHOULD REACH 100 PERCENT RH THROUGH THE
LOWEST 1000 FEET BY EARLY MORNING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH SOME
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. ANTICIPATE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DENSITY
OF FOG...AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL DENSE FOG IS NOT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL THE
DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT A LITTLE BETTER.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL
BE MORE PREDOMINANT THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
LIFT INTO A STRATUS DECK AND PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH. GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO
OUTPUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP...BUT LIFT APPEARS MARGINAL AND OVERALL
MOISTURE DEPTH IS LACKING. MAY SEE A BIT OF DRIZZLE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ACCUMULATING PRECIP.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LOW-LEVEL WAA OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER...IF SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN
HIGHS MAY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WE KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY THEN HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER...MAY ONLY
SEE THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC DIGS THE 5H TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFTS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF KS. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z GFS DIGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE
NAM LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IF THE EC
SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE BEST TROWAL SET
UP WOULD BE NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN NE. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOST OF THE FORCING AND ASCENT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KS...SO THERE
WOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. I PLACED IN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE NAM
AND EC CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THEIR CURRENT SOLUTIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE TURNING SHARPLY COOLER AS BOTH THE EC
AND GFS SHOW A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IF WE KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WE MAY NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 210402
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1002 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
00 UTC MODELS ONCE AGAIN OFF TO POOR START WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND TRENDS. LOCAL WRF IS FARING BEST WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS. FOG CHANCES ARE NOW LOOKING MUCH
BETTER IN SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN CURRENT CLEARING TREND THERE. AS
SATURATED AIR ACROSS NE OK IS ADVECTED UPHILL INTO THE COOLER
AIR...SHOULD SEE DECENT CHANCE OF DENSE FOG. FOR AREA GENERALLY
WEST OF I-35...THIS PROCESS MAY NOT GET GOING IN EARNEST UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH UPPER 40 DEW POINTS LIKELY PUSHING UPHILL
INTO MID-UPPER 30 DEGREE AIR...SHOULD SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP AND
RAPIDLY EXPAND TO THE WEST/NORTH OF ICT. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED THE FOG ADVISORY SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES TO THE
NORTH/WEST...DELAYED THE ONSET BY AN HOUR AND EXTENDED IT UNTIL
NOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE APPEARS TO HANG AROUND ALL MORNING
OVER PART OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AS EXPECTED...00 UTC MODELS CAME IN WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL HAVE NOT BEEN TRACKING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. BELIEVE FOG WILL BE A COMBINATION OF
RADIATION...ADVECTION AND BUILD-DOWN PROCESSES. THIS SEEMS MOST
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF KHUT-KRSL. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 30S AT KRSL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 18
UTC WITH INCREASED MIXING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
GIVEN RATHER POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ACCURACY OF DETAILS WITH THIS FORECAST. 1800 UTC
NORTH AMERICAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE OFF TO A BETTER START...ALTHOUGH
A BIT LACKING IN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NE OK WHERE SOME IFR CEILINGS/DRIZZLE
ARE OCCURRING. AT FACE VALUE IT WOULD SUGGEST LOWEST CONDITIONS
ALONG WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING. LOW IFR WOULD
BE LIKELY IF NORTH AMERICAN MODEL IS CORRECT AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT BUT
WOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST 1800 UTC WHEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS...AND STRATUS
AND FOG ARE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING SOON AFTER MOVING NORTH
OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE...REMOVED PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SE KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STRONGER OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EXPECT THE MAIN BULK
OF PRECIP TO STAY DOWN THERE. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WINDS...CLOUDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS KS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
DUNTEN
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY AROUND 9Z...AND ARE
SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB. FROM 9Z TO ABOUT
15Z...SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. AN
ADVECTION TYPE FOG SCENARIO IS LIKELY WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL DENSE FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO
WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS POINT AND
THEN LET LATER SHIFTS EXPAND IF NECESSARY.
THE DENSE FOG SHOULD TRANSITION TO NON-DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THAT MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SCHRECK
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AM FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONT. BIG QUESTION WILL REMAIN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF IOWA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT
THIS BEING OUR COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
RHE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 45 59 43 56 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 39 57 41 55 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 41 57 42 54 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 43 58 41 56 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 47 62 43 57 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 36 58 38 54 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 37 57 37 53 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 37 56 42 56 / 0 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 39 57 42 56 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 46 59 43 62 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 42 57 44 62 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 42 56 43 60 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 44 58 43 62 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 210036
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
GIVEN RATHER POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ACCURACY OF DETAILS WITH THIS FORECAST. 1800 UTC
NORTH AMERICAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE OFF TO A BETTER START...ALTHOUGH
A BIT LACKING IN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NE OK WHERE SOME IFR CEILINGS/DRIZZLE
ARE OCCURRING. AT FACE VALUE IT WOULD SUGGEST LOWEST CONDITIONS
ALONG WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING. LOW IFR WOULD
BE LIKELY IF NORTH AMERICAN MODEL IS CORRECT AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT BUT
WOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST 1800 UTC WHEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS...AND STRATUS
AND FOG ARE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING SOON AFTER MOVING NORTH
OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE...REMOVED PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SE KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STRONGER OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EXPECT THE MAIN BULK
OF PRECIP TO STAY DOWN THERE. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WINDS...CLOUDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS KS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
DUNTEN
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY AROUND 9Z...AND ARE
SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB. FROM 9Z TO ABOUT
15Z...SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. AN
ADVECTION TYPE FOG SCENARIO IS LIKELY WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL DENSE FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO
WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS POINT AND
THEN LET LATER SHIFTS EXPAND IF NECESSARY.
THE DENSE FOG SHOULD TRANSITION TO NON-DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THAT MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SCHRECK
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AM FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONT. BIG QUESTION WILL REMAIN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF IOWA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT
THIS BEING OUR COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
RHE
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO KICT AND KHUT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THIS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH INTO
CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. CERTAINLY HAVE SOME
CONCERNS IN MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
IFR FOG MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z/SAT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AS MOISTURE BUILDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH A POSSIBLE STRATUS BUILD DOWN SITUATION DEVELOPING.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAF SITES FOR
THE 10-14Z/SAT TIME FRAME AS VISIBILITIES COULD BECOME LIFR. WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES LOOK AT THIS CHANCE.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 41 59 43 56 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 39 57 41 55 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 42 57 42 54 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 40 58 41 56 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 45 62 43 57 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 32 58 38 54 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 33 57 37 53 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 37 56 42 56 / 0 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 39 57 42 56 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 47 59 43 62 / 10 20 10 10
CHANUTE 44 57 44 62 / 10 20 10 10
IOLA 43 56 43 60 / 10 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 45 58 43 62 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 202350
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 0Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVENT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH A SLOW DOWNTURN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC TIMING IS LOW. TEMPS ALREADY FALLING OF QUICKLY...AND
WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS IN EARLIER AS A RESULT. DEEP MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH MAY KEEP LIFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...AND TRENDED THIS WAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT FG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE STRATUS...THOUGH
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND OBS NOT FAR SOUTH SHOWING SOME VFR STRATUS
ALREADY DEVELOPING.
65
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY TRAPPED BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AS A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER IS IN PLACE OVER TEXAS...THE TROUGH PRODUCING
OUR WET WEATHER EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...
AND A LARGE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ON TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...PROVIDING DRY SINKING AIR...LIGHT
WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A STRONG INVERSION
WILL FORM OVER THESE AREAS AND TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AND ESSENTIALLY SHOULD REACH 100 PERCENT RH THROUGH THE
LOWEST 1000 FEET BY EARLY MORNING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH SOME
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. ANTICIPATE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DENSITY
OF FOG...AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL DENSE FOG IS NOT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL THE
DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT A LITTLE BETTER.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL
BE MORE PREDOMINANT THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
LIFT INTO A STRATUS DECK AND PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH. GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO
OUTPUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP...BUT LIFT APPEARS MARGINAL AND OVERALL
MOISTURE DEPTH IS LACKING. MAY SEE A BIT OF DRIZZLE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ACCUMULATING PRECIP.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LOW-LEVEL WAA OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER...IF SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN
HIGHS MAY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WE KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY THEN HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER...MAY ONLY
SEE THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC DIGS THE 5H TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFTS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF KS. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z GFS DIGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE
NAM LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IF THE EC
SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE BEST TROWAL SET
UP WOULD BE NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN NE. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOST OF THE FORCING AND ASCENT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KS...SO THERE
WOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. I PLACED IN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE NAM
AND EC CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THEIR CURRENT SOLUTIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE TURNING SHARPLY COOLER AS BOTH THE EC
AND GFS SHOW A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IF WE KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WE MAY NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 202309
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
409 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - MONDAY)
200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES LATE
SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. SECOND...AND STRONGER...SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TWO CAMPS...THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE A DEEP CUT OFF LOW NEAR OR OVER THE CWA WITH
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND WIND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT...THE
ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO INDICATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE
OPEN WAVES WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
HPC GUIDANCE PREFERS THE FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION...THUS WILL BE
BUMPING UP POPS...WIND...AND QPF IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIODS. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY - FRIDAY)
200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
TUESDAY DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PREFER
THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL HAVE TUESDAY COLD WITH A
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE EAST. THE PLAINS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THERE IS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HOWEVER THINK MOISTURE
WILL BE SCARCE BY THAT TIME AND IT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE WESTERN RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
024
&&
.AVIATION...
409 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT BECOME GUSTY AROUND THE 15G25KT RANGE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
50
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 202133
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WINDS ON SATURDAY AND HOW FAR
WEST THE STRATUS MOVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY
MORNING THEN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS COMBINED WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH
WAVE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT MAY SPREAD SOME
CLOUDINESS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA BEFORE MOVING OUT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO SUNDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DRAW BETTER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO STRATUS FORMATION, HOWEVER WESTERN EXTENT
IS THE QUESTION. THE WRF SHOWS THE FARTHEST WEST TOWARDS GARDEN
CITY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY FAR EAST AND WILL LEAVE
A VERY LOW POP EAST TO COVER. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MINIMAL WITH A
GOOD CAPPING INVERSION FOR SUNDAY AND A LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FAR WEST BY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE WARMEST IN THE MID 30S AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE WITH THE BETTER DEWPOINTS. ON SATURDAY LOOK FOR
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25
MPH. HIGHS WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND 60 DEPENDING ON
HOW THICK THE CIRRUS CLOUDS GET. THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR
INCREASING STRATUS CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FA AS HIGH
CLOUDINESS PUSHES EAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND STAY
IN THE 15 TO 22 MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST.
DAYS 3-7...
THE FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL REMAIN WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITES STATES AND INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN/PLAINS REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WHAT
RESULTING IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAS
BEEN KEEPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY OR CYCLOGENESIS INDUCED FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AN MONDAY, TO THE NORTH OF OUR IMMEDIATE FORECAST
AREA. THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC GFS WAS NOT SURPRISING AND FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH REMAINING THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST NORTH MODEL, NOT
TO MENTION WEAKEST SOLUTION, WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORED A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL, THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
BEGUN WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH IN THE MORNING, AND PERHAPS CLEAR
THE KS/OK LINE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. AS WELL, WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED, WE TRIMMED HIGHS ON MONDAY
WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREES DIURNAL HIGH, WITH TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON
IN THE 40S.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE, HOWEVER, THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A DEEP LAYER DRY INTRUSION HAVING THE
GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. ONLY THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION
OF ECMWF PREDICTS LIGHT PRECIPITATION/QPF AMOUNTS IN OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS. A LOOK AT THE ECMWF`S THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
INDICATES MARGINALLY COLD 850 MB AIR IN THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT WHILE
1000-500 MB CRITICAL THICKNESS REACH THE 540 DM LINE ONCE THE
DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST FORM TEH CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE,
WE HAVE KEPT WITH 10-20 POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING, WHEN A MENTION OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SEEMS
APPROPRIATE.
IN THE TIMEFRAME BEYOND, A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, AS
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD INFLUENCING HE PLAINS STATES.
ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 DEG C TO -8 DEG C RANGE WOULD SUPPORT
STICKING WITH BELOW CLIMATOLOGY HIGHS AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO
LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERALL, THE FORECAST WAS HEDGED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 32 60 38 53 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 30 60 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 33 61 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 31 62 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 29 58 37 53 / 0 10 10 10
P28 40 60 43 58 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN06/33
000
FXUS63 KICT 202112
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS...AND STRATUS
AND FOG ARE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING SOON AFTER MOVING NORTH
OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE...REMOVED PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SE KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STRONGER OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EXPECT THE MAIN BULK
OF PRECIP TO STAY DOWN THERE. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WINDS...CLOUDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS KS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
DUNTEN
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY AROUND 9Z...AND ARE
SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB. FROM 9Z TO ABOUT
15Z...SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. AN
ADVECTION TYPE FOG SCENARIO IS LIKELY WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL DENSE FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO
WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS POINT AND
THEN LET LATER SHIFTS EXPAND IF NECESSARY.
THE DENSE FOG SHOULD TRANSITION TO NON-DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THAT MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SCHRECK
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AM FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONT. BIG QUESTION WILL REMAIN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF IOWA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT
THIS BEING OUR COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
RHE
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO KICT AND KHUT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THIS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH INTO
CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. CERTAINLY HAVE SOME
CONCERNS IN MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
IFR FOG MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z/SAT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AS MOISTURE BUILDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH A POSSIBLE STRATUS BUILD DOWN SITUATION DEVELOPING.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAF SITES FOR
THE 10-14Z/SAT TIME FRAME AS VISIBILITIES COULD BECOME LIFR. WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES LOOK AT THIS CHANCE.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 41 59 43 56 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 39 57 41 55 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 42 57 42 54 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 40 58 41 56 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 45 62 43 57 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 32 58 38 54 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 33 57 37 53 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 37 56 42 56 / 0 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 39 57 42 56 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 47 59 43 62 / 10 20 10 10
CHANUTE 44 57 44 62 / 10 20 10 10
IOLA 43 56 43 60 / 10 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 45 58 43 62 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 202106
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY TRAPPED BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AS A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER IS IN PLACE OVER TEXAS...THE TROUGH PRODUCING
OUR WET WEATHER EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...
AND A LARGE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ON TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...PROVIDING DRY SINKING AIR...LIGHT
WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A STRONG INVERSION
WILL FORM OVER THESE AREAS AND TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AND ESSENTIALLY SHOULD REACH 100 PERCENT RH THROUGH THE
LOWEST 1000 FEET BY EARLY MORNING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH SOME
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. ANTICIPATE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DENSITY
OF FOG...AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL DENSE FOG IS NOT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL THE
DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT A LITTLE BETTER.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL
BE MORE PREDOMINANT THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
LIFT INTO A STRATUS DECK AND PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH. GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO
OUTPUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP...BUT LIFT APPEARS MARGINAL AND OVERALL
MOISTURE DEPTH IS LACKING. MAY SEE A BIT OF DRIZZLE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ACCUMULATING PRECIP.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LOW-LEVEL WAA OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER...IF SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN
HIGHS MAY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WE KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY THEN HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER...MAY ONLY
SEE THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC DIGS THE 5H TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFTS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF KS. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z GFS DIGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE
NAM LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IF THE EC
SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE BEST TROWAL SET
UP WOULD BE NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN NE. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOST OF THE FORCING AND ASCENT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KS...SO THERE
WOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. I PLACED IN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE NAM
AND EC CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THEIR CURRENT SOLUTIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE TURNING SHARPLY COOLER AS BOTH THE EC
AND GFS SHOW A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IF WE KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WE MAY NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
GARGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOG HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF OVER MHK...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BE MIXING UP AND
OUT. AFTER FOG BURNS OFF...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG AT ALL SITES TONIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIFR LIKELY
BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG WILL LIKELY LIFT TO A STRATUS DECK BY MID
MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PERHAPS A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
BARJENBRUCH/GARGAN/BARJENBRUCH
000
FXUS63 KGLD 202103
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - MONDAY)
200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES LATE
SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. SECOND...AND STRONGER...SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TWO CAMPS...THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE A DEEP CUT OFF LOW NEAR OR OVER THE CWA WITH
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND WIND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT...THE
ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO INDICATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE
OPEN WAVES WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
HPC GUIDANCE PREFERS THE FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION...THUS WILL BE
BUMPING UP POPS...WIND...AND QPF IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIODS. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY - FRIDAY)
200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
TUESDAY DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PREFER
THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL HAVE TUESDAY COLD WITH A
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE EAST. THE PLAINS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THERE IS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HOWEVER THINK MOISTURE
WILL BE SCARCE BY THAT TIME AND IT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE WESTERN RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
024
&&
.AVIATION...
411 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION.
FS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 201747
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO KICT AND KHUT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THIS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH INTO
CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. CERTAINLY HAVE SOME
CONCERNS IN MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
IFR FOG MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z/SAT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AS MOISTURE BUILDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH A POSSIBLE STRATUS BUILD DOWN SITUATION DEVELOPING.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAF SITES FOR
THE 10-14Z/SAT TIME FRAME AS VISIBILITIES COULD BECOME LIFR. WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES LOOK AT THIS CHANCE.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. UPDATED GRIDS TO KEEP FOG IN TILL
18Z. IN SOUTHERN KS...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ALONG THE KS/OK
BOARDER. WITH THE MOISTURE AREA STREAMING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEAR SKIES IN
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
DUNTEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PATCHY EARLY AM FOG COULD AFFECT SITES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTO SERN KS TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
IN SERN KS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION AT CNU TAF. LATER
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SERLY WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
TRYING TO ADVECT NWWRD INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS INTO AN AIRMASS
EXPERIENCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONCERNED WE COULD SEE IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AS A RESULT TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY THE ELONGATED PV ANOMALY IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND
INDUCING LIFT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
AS THE PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THE SOUTHERN
MOST EXTENT OF THE ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THIS ONLY OCCURS BRIEFLY BEFORE IT IS PICKED BACK
UP BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PLAGUE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A SCATTERED SHOWER AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE FACT THAT THE LOWER PIECE OF THE PV ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA AS
ANOTHER KICKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXTREMELY FAVORED BY THE NAM OR LOCAL
WRF RUNS...MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED BY THIS TIME...AND ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DID INCREASE TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A TAD WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB A BIT HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THE DIFFERENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE INTENSITY AND TIMING
OF THE TROUGH. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND DEEPER ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NE/KS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
AND MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION FOR ANY SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODEL VARIATIONS KEEP UNCERTAINTY HIGH AND HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 40 61 43 / 10 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 57 36 61 41 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 56 38 59 42 / 10 0 10 10
ELDORADO 56 37 59 41 / 10 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 40 60 43 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 57 31 60 38 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 56 32 59 37 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 57 34 60 42 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 57 37 60 42 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 55 44 56 43 / 30 20 20 10
CHANUTE 55 43 56 44 / 20 20 20 10
IOLA 54 42 57 43 / 20 10 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 56 43 56 43 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201720
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1015 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
214 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
430Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SFC...RIDGE WAS SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
CENTER LOCATED IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WEATHER WILL BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. H5
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS STRONG
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LITTLE TO ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE COMING
FROM DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. DESPITE THE INCREASING ASCENT BY
SATURDAY MORNING THINGS LOOK TO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING DRIVING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST FORCED ASCENT OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS DIV Q FIELDS INDICATE STRONG FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT CORRELATING WELL WITH LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS.
WHILE FORCING LOOKS GOOD...LACK OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EXCESS OF 150 MB ON 300K SURFACE
INDICATE LEVEL OF BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY NO BECOME
SATURATED. A STRAY SHOWER CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND SATURDAYS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...LOOKING AT THE AVAILABLE CANADIAN...UKMET...12Z ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLE DATA THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONGER AND MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GEFS ENS MEAN SEEMS TO SUPPORT A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK A FEW MEMBERS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHICH IS
VERY DIFFERENT FROM OPERATIONAL RUNS. 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE DATA AND
00Z 558DM SPAGHETTI PLOTS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION WITH ONLY ONE MEMBER NOT SOMEWHAT IN THIS CAMP...WHICH
DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A MUCH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK SOLUTION AND 00Z ECMWF ALSO
APPEARS TO BE IN THIS CAMP.
WITH SUCH SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...DO NOT
THINK IT WOULD BE A GOOD PLAN TO TRY TO PERFECT PROG THE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD. IT DOES SEEM THAT ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A
MORE SOUTHERLY SYSTEM...AS EVIDENCED BY A FEW GFS MEMBERS STARTING
TO MOVE INTO THIS CAMP SO MAY TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
DETAILS FAR TO UNCLEAR TO REALLY TRY TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING HOWEVER.
JRM
&&
.AVIATION...
1015 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
05
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 201719
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1119 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOG HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO BURN OFF OVER MHK...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BE MIXING UP AND
OUT. AFTER FOG BURNS OFF...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FOG AT ALL SITES TONIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS
TO SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIFR LIKELY
BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG WILL LIKELY LIFT TO A STRATUS DECK BY MID
MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PERHAPS A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION... AFTER COORDINATION WITH OAX AND EAX...HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN KS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS
WHERE OBS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG BECOMING MORE PREVAILING.
PREV DISCUSSION...
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND
WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID
LEVEL RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. SFC OBS INDICATED A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS
BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TX GULF COAST.
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS AND AREAS
AROUND BODIES OF WATER HAVE BEEN REPORTING VSBY AROUND A QUARTER OF
A MILE. THE SEVERELY RESTRICTED VSBY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKES...AND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER IT WOULD SEEM
LESS LIKELY FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE ANY
PLANS TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM. ALSO SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IS AN
AREA OF AC ACROSS SOUTHERN KS JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
ANDERSON COUNTY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THINK THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. BY
TONIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
THE QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA. HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH NO STRONG
TEMP ADVECTION EXPECTED. THOUGH SOME WAA AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
A WEAK FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MOISTURE WITHIN
THE RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH NO
REAL INSTABILITY AND THE FRONT WEAKENING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIGHT. HAVE LOWERED
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THINKING MOST LIKELY PRECIP WOULD BE DRIZZLE
SINCE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILD WITH LOWER 40S COMMON DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
STRATUS.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER
AND CUTS OFF A LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST THINKING THE
FROPA COULD BE MUCH SLOWER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
CLEAR THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFS
STARTS TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCES OF
THE MODELS. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SOLUTION LIKE THIS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANGES TO A MINIMUM AND LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THUR AND FRI STILL LOOK
QUIET WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ038.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 201617
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1017 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY DENSE FOG STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. UPDATED GRIDS TO KEEP FOG IN TILL
18Z. IN SOUTHERN KS...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS ALONG THE KS/OK
BOARDER. WITH THE MOISTURE AREA STREAMING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEAR SKIES IN
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
DUNTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PATCHY EARLY AM FOG COULD AFFECT SITES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTO SERN KS TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
IN SERN KS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION AT CNU TAF. LATER
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SERLY WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
TRYING TO ADVECT NWWRD INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS INTO AN AIRMASS
EXPERIENCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONCERNED WE COULD SEE IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AS A RESULT TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY THE ELONGATED PV ANOMALY IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND
INDUCING LIFT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
AS THE PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THE SOUTHERN
MOST EXTENT OF THE ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THIS ONLY OCCURS BRIEFLY BEFORE IT IS PICKED BACK
UP BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PLAGUE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A SCATTERED SHOWER AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE FACT THAT THE LOWER PIECE OF THE PV ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA AS
ANOTHER KICKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXTREMELY FAVORED BY THE NAM OR LOCAL
WRF RUNS...MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED BY THIS TIME...AND ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DID INCREASE TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A TAD WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB A BIT HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THE DIFFERENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE INTENSITY AND TIMING
OF THE TROUGH. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND DEEPER ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NE/KS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
AND MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION FOR ANY SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODEL VARIATIONS KEEP UNCERTAINTY HIGH AND HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 40 61 43 / 10 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 57 36 61 41 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 56 38 59 42 / 10 0 10 10
ELDORADO 56 37 59 41 / 10 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 40 60 43 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 57 31 60 38 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 56 32 59 37 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 57 34 60 42 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 57 37 60 42 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 55 44 56 43 / 30 20 20 10
CHANUTE 55 43 56 44 / 20 20 20 10
IOLA 54 42 57 43 / 20 10 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 56 43 56 43 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 201145
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PATCHY EARLY AM FOG COULD AFFECT SITES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INDUCE SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT INTO SERN KS TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
IN SERN KS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION AT CNU TAF. LATER
TONIGHT...FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SERLY WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
TRYING TO ADVECT NWWRD INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS INTO AN AIRMASS
EXPERIENCING RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONCERNED WE COULD SEE IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AS A RESULT TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY THE ELONGATED PV ANOMALY IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND
INDUCING LIFT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
AS THE PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THE SOUTHERN
MOST EXTENT OF THE ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THIS ONLY OCCURS BRIEFLY BEFORE IT IS PICKED BACK
UP BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PLAGUE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A SCATTERED SHOWER AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE FACT THAT THE LOWER PIECE OF THE PV ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA AS
ANOTHER KICKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXTREMELY FAVORED BY THE NAM OR LOCAL
WRF RUNS...MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED BY THIS TIME...AND ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DID INCREASE TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A TAD WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB A BIT HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THE DIFFERENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE INTENSITY AND TIMING
OF THE TROUGH. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND DEEPER ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NE/KS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
AND MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION FOR ANY SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODEL VARIATIONS KEEP UNCERTAINTY HIGH AND HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 40 61 43 / 10 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 57 36 61 41 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 55 38 59 42 / 10 0 10 10
ELDORADO 56 37 59 41 / 10 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 40 60 43 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 56 31 60 38 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 55 32 59 37 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 56 34 60 42 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 57 37 60 42 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 55 44 56 43 / 20 20 20 10
CHANUTE 56 43 56 44 / 20 20 20 10
IOLA 54 42 57 43 / 20 10 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 56 43 56 43 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JMC
000
FXUS63 KTOP 201140
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MHK CURRENTLY WITH VIS LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AND EXPECT LIFR TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BETWEEN 14Z TO 15Z. AT FOE/TOP...A COMBINATION OF SCT LOW
CLOUDS AND CIRRUS HAVE KEPT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LARGER...WITH
MAINLY IFR VIS THUS FAR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER
VIS BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS GREATLY WORSEN AS AREAS TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ALL SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. BLAIR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH OAX AND EAX...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FOG
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN KS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE OBS ARE
SHOWING DENSE FOG BECOMING MORE PREVAILING.
PREV DISCUSSION...
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND
WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID
LEVEL RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. SFC OBS INDICATED A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS
BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TX GULF COAST.
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS AND AREAS
AROUND BODIES OF WATER HAVE BEEN REPORTING VSBY AROUND A QUARTER OF
A MILE. THE SEVERELY RESTRICTED VSBY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKES...AND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER IT WOULD SEEM
LESS LIKELY FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE ANY
PLANS TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM. ALSO SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IS AN
AREA OF AC ACROSS SOUTHERN KS JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
ANDERSON COUNTY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THINK THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. BY
TONIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
THE QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA. HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH NO STRONG
TEMP ADVECTION EXPECTED. THOUGH SOME WAA AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
A WEAK FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MOISTURE WITHIN
THE RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH NO
REAL INSTABILITY AND THE FRONT WEAKENING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIGHT. HAVE LOWERED
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THINKING MOST LIKELY PRECIP WOULD BE DRIZZLE
SINCE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILD WITH LOWER 40S COMMON DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
STRATUS.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER
AND CUTS OFF A LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST THINKING THE
FROPA COULD BE MUCH SLOWER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
CLEAR THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFS
STARTS TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCES OF
THE MODELS. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SOLUTION LIKE THIS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANGES TO A MINIMUM AND LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THUR AND FRI STILL LOOK
QUIET WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201112
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
411 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
214 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
430Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SFC...RIDGE WAS SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
CENTER LOCATED IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WEATHER WILL BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. H5
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS STRONG
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LITTLE TO ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE COMING
FROM DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. DESPITE THE INCREASING ASCENT BY
SATURDAY MORNING THINGS LOOK TO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING DRIVING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST FORCED ASCENT OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS DIV Q FIELDS INDICATE STRONG FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT CORRELATING WELL WITH LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS.
WHILE FORCING LOOKS GOOD...LACK OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EXCESS OF 150 MB ON 300K SURFACE
INDICATE LEVEL OF BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY NO BECOME
SATURATED. A STRAY SHOWER CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND SATURDAYS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...LOOKING AT THE AVAILABLE CANADIAN...UKMET...12Z ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLE DATA THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONGER AND MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GEFS ENS MEAN SEEMS TO SUPPORT A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK A FEW MEMBERS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHICH IS
VERY DIFFERENT FROM OPERATIONAL RUNS. 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE DATA AND
00Z 558DM SPAGHETTI PLOTS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION WITH ONLY ONE MEMBER NOT SOMEWHAT IN THIS CAMP...WHICH
DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A MUCH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK SOLUTION AND 00Z ECMWF ALSO
APPEARS TO BE IN THIS CAMP.
WITH SUCH SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...DO NOT
THINK IT WOULD BE A GOOD PLAN TO TRY TO PERFECT PROG THE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD. IT DOES SEEM THAT ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A
MORE SOUTHERLY SYSTEM...AS EVIDENCED BY A FEW GFS MEMBERS STARTING
TO MOVE INTO THIS CAMP SO MAY TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
DETAILS FAR TO UNCLEAR TO REALLY TRY TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING HOWEVER.
JRM
&&
.AVIATION...
411 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REGION.
FS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 200937
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
336 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH OAX AND EAX...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FOG
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN KS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE OBS ARE
SHOWING DENSE FOG BECOMING MORE PREVAILING.
PREV DISCUSSION...
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND
WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID
LEVEL RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. SFC OBS INDICATED A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS
BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TX GULF COAST.
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS AND AREAS
AROUND BODIES OF WATER HAVE BEEN REPORTING VSBY AROUND A QUARTER OF
A MILE. THE SEVERELY RESTRICTED VSBY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKES...AND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER IT WOULD SEEM
LESS LIKELY FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE ANY
PLANS TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM. ALSO SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IS AN
AREA OF AC ACROSS SOUTHERN KS JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
ANDERSON COUNTY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THINK THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. BY
TONIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
THE QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA. HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH NO STRONG
TEMP ADVECTION EXPECTED. THOUGH SOME WAA AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
A WEAK FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MOISTURE WITHIN
THE RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH NO
REAL INSTABILITY AND THE FRONT WEAKENING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIGHT. HAVE LOWERED
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THINKING MOST LIKELY PRECIP WOULD BE DRIZZLE
SINCE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILD WITH LOWER 40S COMMON DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
STRATUS.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER
AND CUTS OFF A LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST THINKING THE
FROPA COULD BE MUCH SLOWER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
CLEAR THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFS
STARTS TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCES OF
THE MODELS. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SOLUTION LIKE THIS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANGES TO A MINIMUM AND LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THUR AND FRI STILL LOOK
QUIET WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
WOLTERS
&&
.AVIATION...
T/TD SPREADS ARE ONLY 1-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...WITH MVFR VIS
PREVAILING DESPITE BKN CIRRUS. 4-5KFT DECK ALSO LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THE NAM...GFS...AND RUC KEEP THIS
DECK S AND E OF THE TERMINALS. QUESTION WILL BE IF VIS WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP OFF...OR REMAIN MVFR. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS...LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS...AND SURROUNDING OBS ALREADY DROPPING TO 1/4SM
BENEATH SCT CIRRUS...THINK IFR TO LIFR VIS IS LIKELY BETWEEN 09-13Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM 13-15Z...AND EXPECT VFR THEREAFTER.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
LUNDE
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9AM THIS MORNING FOR KSZ008>012-020>024.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 200933
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY THE ELONGATED PV ANOMALY IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND
INDUCING LIFT AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
AS THE PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA...THE SOUTHERN
MOST EXTENT OF THE ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW. THIS ONLY OCCURS BRIEFLY BEFORE IT IS PICKED BACK
UP BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PLAGUE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER EAST...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A SCATTERED SHOWER AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE FACT THAT THE LOWER PIECE OF THE PV ANOMALY WILL BREAK OFF AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA AS
ANOTHER KICKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXTREMELY FAVORED BY THE NAM OR LOCAL
WRF RUNS...MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED BY THIS TIME...AND ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DID INCREASE TEMPS A BIT ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A TAD WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB A BIT HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND THE DIFFERENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE INTENSITY AND TIMING
OF THE TROUGH. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER AND DEEPER ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH TRACKS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NE/KS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA...AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
AND MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION FOR ANY SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODEL VARIATIONS KEEP UNCERTAINTY HIGH AND HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE RETURN MOISTURE STREAMING INTO EASTERN KS.
BASES RUNNING BETWEEN 045-055...BUT SUSPECT THOSE WILL LOWER
DURING THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES. 0000 UTC GLOBAL
FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND NORTH AMERICAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE A
BIT DRY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LATTER
BETTER WITH CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS. WITH PSEUDO WARM FRONT EVIDENT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS WITH HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD
HAVE DECENT CHANCE FOR FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
IFR FOG AT KCNU NEAR DAYBREAK. SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY IN
KCNU WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND VERY RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...AND WILL
KEEP CEILINGS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 40 61 43 / 10 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 57 36 61 41 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 55 38 59 42 / 10 0 10 10
ELDORADO 56 37 59 41 / 10 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 40 60 43 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 56 31 60 38 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 55 32 59 37 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 56 34 60 42 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 57 37 60 42 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 55 44 56 43 / 20 20 20 10
CHANUTE 56 43 56 44 / 20 20 20 10
IOLA 54 42 57 43 / 20 10 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 56 43 56 43 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 200918
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
214 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
430Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SFC...RIDGE WAS SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
CENTER LOCATED IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WEATHER WILL BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. H5
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS STRONG
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LITTLE TO ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE COMING
FROM DRY POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. DESPITE THE INCREASING ASCENT BY
SATURDAY MORNING THINGS LOOK TO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING DRIVING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST FORCED ASCENT OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS DIV Q FIELDS INDICATE STRONG FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT CORRELATING WELL WITH LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS.
WHILE FORCING LOOKS GOOD...LACK OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN EXCESS OF 150 MB ON 300K SURFACE
INDICATE LEVEL OF BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY NO BECOME
SATURATED. A STRAY SHOWER CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND SATURDAYS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT...LOOKING AT THE AVAILABLE CANADIAN...UKMET...12Z ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLE DATA THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONGER AND MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GEFS ENS MEAN SEEMS TO SUPPORT A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK A FEW MEMBERS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHICH IS
VERY DIFFERENT FROM OPERATIONAL RUNS. 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE DATA AND
00Z 558DM SPAGHETTI PLOTS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SLOWER/STRONGER
SOLUTION WITH ONLY ONE MEMBER NOT SOMEWHAT IN THIS CAMP...WHICH
DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A MUCH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK SOLUTION AND 00Z ECMWF ALSO
APPEARS TO BE IN THIS CAMP.
WITH SUCH SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...DO NOT
THINK IT WOULD BE A GOOD PLAN TO TRY TO PERFECT PROG THE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD. IT DOES SEEM THAT ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A
MORE SOUTHERLY SYSTEM...AS EVIDENCED BY A FEW GFS MEMBERS STARTING
TO MOVE INTO THIS CAMP SO MAY TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
DETAILS FAR TO UNCLEAR TO REALLY TRY TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING HOWEVER.
JRM
&&
.AVIATION...
959 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
VALID PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
IN DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.
50
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 200915
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
314 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND
WITH A WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID
LEVEL RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. SFC OBS INDICATED A WEAK SFC RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS
BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A SFC LOW NEAR
THE TX GULF COAST.
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED WITHIN THE WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS AND AREAS
AROUND BODIES OF WATER HAVE BEEN REPORTING VSBY AROUND A QUARTER OF
A MILE. THE SEVERELY RESTRICTED VSBY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED
NEAR THE RIVER AND LAKES...AND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER IT WOULD SEEM
LESS LIKELY FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE ANY
PLANS TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM. ALSO SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IS AN
AREA OF AC ACROSS SOUTHERN KS JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SKIRT
ANDERSON COUNTY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THINK THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. BY
TONIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
THE QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA. HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH NO STRONG
TEMP ADVECTION EXPECTED. THOUGH SOME WAA AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S.
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
A WEAK FRONT INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MOISTURE WITHIN
THE RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH NO
REAL INSTABILITY AND THE FRONT WEAKENING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIGHT. HAVE LOWERED
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THINKING MOST LIKELY PRECIP WOULD BE DRIZZLE
SINCE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILD WITH LOWER 40S COMMON DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
STRATUS.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER
AND CUTS OFF A LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST THINKING THE
FROPA COULD BE MUCH SLOWER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
CLEAR THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFS
STARTS TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCES OF
THE MODELS. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SOLUTION LIKE THIS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANGES TO A MINIMUM AND LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THUR AND FRI STILL LOOK
QUIET WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
WOLTERS
&&
.AVIATION...
T/TD SPREADS ARE ONLY 1-3 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...WITH MVFR VIS
PREVAILING DESPITE BKN CIRRUS. 4-5KFT DECK ALSO LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THE NAM...GFS...AND RUC KEEP THIS
DECK S AND E OF THE TERMINALS. QUESTION WILL BE IF VIS WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP OFF...OR REMAIN MVFR. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS...LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS...AND SURROUNDING OBS ALREADY DROPPING TO 1/4SM
BENEATH SCT CIRRUS...THINK IFR TO LIFR VIS IS LIKELY BETWEEN 09-13Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM 13-15Z...AND EXPECT VFR THEREAFTER.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
LUNDE
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 200908
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
308 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT
NOW. A PIECE OF THE TROF WILL EVENTUALLY CUTOFF TO OUR SOUTH, BUT
THE ONLY AFFECT WE WILL SEE FROM THIS TROF IS A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD
THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON, UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING
IN OVER KANSAS FROM THE WEST, CLEARING OUT ANY REMAINING HIGH
CLOUD. DESPITE NORTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A FAIRLY STRONG TROF CURRENTLY PLOWING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE ROCKIES TOMORROW. THIS WILL INDUCE A LEE
TROF OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND HELP TO WARM US UP WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. HIGH
CLOUD WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TOMORROW AS THE TROF APPROACHES,
BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD BE THE RULE. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND SOME
DYNAMICS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME PRECIP. THE NAM REMAINS DRY BUT THE GFS AND EC DEVELOP
LIGHT QPF OVER CENTRAL KS SAT NIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM COMING FROM
THE WEST, WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRY NAM AND KEEP POPS OUT FOR NOW.
BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. -WRIGHT
DAYS 3-7...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
A WAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
FARTHEST NORTH TRACK WITH THE WAVE MOVING OUT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE
WAVE AND THE 00Z RUN HAS THE WAVE FARTHER SOUTH AGAIN...ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AS WELL. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE CANADIAN ARE
COMING MORE INTO LINE IN SUPPORT OF ITS OPERATIONAL RUN AND EVEN
SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT A
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK COULD STILL BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AND TREND IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SHOWN BY THE MODELS...THE GOING FORECAST FOR
SMALL CHANCE POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME AND HAVE ALSO
EXTENDED SMALL POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THE
ECMWF SHOWS 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 0C WHICH SUGGEST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
IT DOES APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE DRY WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN
KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 31 60 37 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 56 31 60 36 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 57 33 61 35 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 57 32 62 37 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 55 30 58 36 / 0 0 0 10
P28 56 35 60 43 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN34/02/02
000
FXUS63 KICT 200544
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...
MADE TWEAKS TO GRIDS EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY TRENDS AND WINDS.
MOST RECENT UPDATE WAS TO REFINE FOG AREA...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR
PATCHY DENSE IN THE VICINITY OF DEVELOPING WFNT IN SOUTHEAST
KS...WITH NON-DENSE FOG WEST OF THAT. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPING CIRRUS
WILL LIMIT FOG CHANCES IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE RETURN MOISTURE STREAMING INTO EASTERN KS.
BASES RUNNING BETWEEN 045-055...BUT SUSPECT THOSE WILL LOWER
DURING THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES. 0000 UTC GLOBAL
FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS A BIT AGRESSIVE WITH QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND NORTH AMERICAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE A
BIT DRY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE LATTER
BETTER WITH CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS. WITH PSEUDO WARM FRONT EVIDENT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS WITH HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH...SHOULD
HAVE DECENT CHANCE FOR FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS. HAVE INCLUDED SOME
IFR FOG AT KCNU NEAR DAYBREAK. SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY IN
KCNU WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND VERY RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...AND WILL
KEEP CEILINGS GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE RETURN MOISTURE STREAMING UP ACROSS EASTERN
OK. BASES RUNNING BETWEEN 035-045...BUT SUSPECT THOSE WILL LOWER
DURING THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI IN SOUTHEAST KS AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KCNU. WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY BE
NEAR/WEST OF KICT AND WILL FLIRT WITH KHUT/KSLN. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS GOING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT:
MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AS STRATOCUMULUS IS STREAMING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TX INTO EASTERN OK PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PER NAM...GFS AND
LOCALLY RUN NAM-WRFARW...THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY VENTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY AROUND 10 PM...AND PERSIST ALL NIGHT DUE TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL COOLING. CONCERNED WITH FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST
KS LOW CLOUDS (ROUGHLY THE FLINT HILLS) NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KS...DUE TO RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. INSERTED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS AND EAST OF LINCOLN TO LYONS. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT FINE TUNE
THE FORECAST A BIT MORE. DRIER AIR AND MORE MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
CENTRAL KS...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG OVER THESE AREAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE. EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DUE TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF VERTICAL LIFT AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY HAS LESS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND IT
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE COULD BE CUT OFF...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND
TALKING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING
UP TO 60F ON SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL KS
EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL BE MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME JUST DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. CURRENTLY
RUNNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD. MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR JUST
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. BEYOND THAT...LOOKS TO BE A NICE
WEEK FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
KLEINSASSER/DUNTEN/ELDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 36 56 38 59 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 36 56 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 36 56 37 59 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 37 56 39 59 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 39 58 41 60 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELL 27 55 34 56 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 28 55 34 59 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 32 55 36 57 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 35 56 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 44 57 41 60 / 10 20 20 20
CHANUTE 40 57 41 60 / 10 20 20 20
IOLA 38 56 41 59 / 10 20 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 43 57 41 60 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 200540
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER REGARDING FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. T/TD SPREADS ARE ONLY 1-3 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT...WITH MVFR VIS PREVAILING DESPITE BKN CIRRUS. 4-5KFT DECK
ALSO LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT THE
NAM...GFS...AND RUC KEEP THIS DECK S AND E OF THE TERMINALS.
QUESTION WILL BE IF VIS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF...OR REMAIN
MVFR. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SURROUNDING OBS ALREADY DROPPING TO 1/4SM BENEATH SCT
CIRRUS...THINK IFR TO LIFR VIS IS LIKELY BETWEEN 09-13Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM 13-15Z...AND EXPECT VFR THEREAFTER.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
LUNDE
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH OVERALL FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. UPPER LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED THE AREA THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON LEAVING NORTHEAST KANSAS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DRAPED
FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION PERHAPS BEING ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
A CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG FORMATION SEEM POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN CAVEAT WILL BE WITH ANY CLOUD COVER
THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SURGE OF LLVL STRATUS IS SPILLING
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
CONCERNS...THINK THE BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TO
FOR ALLOW ADEQUATE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. AS SEEN THIS
MORNING...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
BY FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERSPREAD THE BULK OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...MORE
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
RESULTING IN PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HEADING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW RESULTING FROM
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE FALLS...DECENT WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY SENDING A WEAK
SFC FRONT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY
DIVING INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PRESSURE FALLS
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE CWA BEFORE STALLING. WILL THEREFORE ONLY INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. POTENT UPPER TOUGH
CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO ENTER THE PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
ATTM. WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST AND KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR THE TIME BEING TO ACCOUNT.
DEROCHE
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 200501
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
210 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY CONTINUES
TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
REBUILD FROM THE WEST...THEN UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN.
PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A BIT GUSTY IN THE EASTERN AREAS
AWAY FROM THE TROUGH AXIS. NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
ONLY IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST..AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY)
210 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND REMOVED POPS FROM MONDAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS
IT DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STALLS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.
024
&&
.AVIATION...
959 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
VALID PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
IN DIRECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.
50
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 192337
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE RETURN MOISTURE STREAMING UP ACROSS EASTERN
OK. BASES RUNNING BETWEEN 035-045...BUT SUSPECT THOSE WILL LOWER
DURING THE NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI IN SOUTHEAST KS AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT KCNU. WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY BE
NEAR/WEST OF KICT AND WILL FLIRT WITH KHUT/KSLN. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS GOING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THERE. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY.
TONIGHT:
MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AS STRATOCUMULUS IS STREAMING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TX INTO EASTERN OK PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PER NAM...GFS AND
LOCALLY RUN NAM-WRFARW...THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY VENTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY AROUND 10 PM...AND PERSIST ALL NIGHT DUE TO
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL COOLING. CONCERNED WITH FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SOUTHEAST
KS LOW CLOUDS (ROUGHLY THE FLINT HILLS) NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KS...DUE TO RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. INSERTED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS AND EAST OF LINCOLN TO LYONS. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT FINE TUNE
THE FORECAST A BIT MORE. DRIER AIR AND MORE MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
CENTRAL KS...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG OVER THESE AREAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE. EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DUE TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF VERTICAL LIFT AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY HAS LESS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND IT
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE COULD BE CUT OFF...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND
TALKING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING
UP TO 60F ON SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL KS
EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL BE MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME JUST DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. CURRENTLY
RUNNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD. MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR JUST
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. BEYOND THAT...LOOKS TO BE A NICE
WEEK FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
KLEINSASSER/DUNTEN/ELDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 36 56 38 59 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 33 56 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 35 56 37 59 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 37 56 39 59 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 40 58 41 60 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELL 28 55 34 56 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 29 55 34 59 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 31 55 36 57 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 33 56 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 43 57 41 60 / 10 20 20 20
CHANUTE 41 57 41 60 / 10 20 20 20
IOLA 40 56 41 59 / 10 20 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 42 57 41 60 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 192337
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
537 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...
BIG QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHEN FOG WILL DEVELOP AND HOW DENSE IT
WILL BE. DECIDED TO WORK OFF THE TIMING FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS SFC
OBS WITH A BIT OF TWEAKING FOR EARLIER ONSET. WITH THE GROUND
STILL SATURATED COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SUN ANGLE...DO
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AND LIKELY TO FALL INTO VLIFR CATEGORIES AT
TIMES DURING THE NIGHT. INVERTED SFC TROF EXTENDING FROM TX ALONG WITH
500 MB LOW OVER TX PANHANDLE MAY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS ACROSS TAF
SITES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT COVERAGE TO IMPEDE FG DEVELOPMENT. FG
WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF IN THE MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME PREDOMINATE AFT 15Z.
BYRNE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH OVERALL FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. UPPER LOW THAT HAD PLAGUED THE AREA THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON LEAVING NORTHEAST KANSAS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DRAPED
FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION PERHAPS BEING ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
A CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG FORMATION SEEM POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MAIN CAVEAT WILL BE WITH ANY CLOUD COVER
THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...SURGE OF LLVL STRATUS IS SPILLING
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
CONCERNS...THINK THE BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TO
FOR ALLOW ADEQUATE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. AS SEEN THIS
MORNING...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
BY FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERSPREAD THE BULK OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...MORE
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
RESULTING IN PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HEADING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD
FRIDAY AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW RESULTING FROM
AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE FALLS...DECENT WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY SENDING A WEAK
SFC FRONT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY
DIVING INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PRESSURE FALLS
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE CWA BEFORE STALLING. WILL THEREFORE ONLY INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. POTENT UPPER TOUGH
CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO ENTER THE PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
ATTM. WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST AND KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR THE TIME BEING TO ACCOUNT.
DEROCHE
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
BYRNE
000
FXUS63 KGLD 192332
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)
210 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY CONTINUES
TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
REBUILD FROM THE WEST...THEN UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN.
PREFRONTAL/LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...RESULTING IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A BIT GUSTY IN THE EASTERN AREAS
AWAY FROM THE TROUGH AXIS. NEXT PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
ONLY IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST..AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY)
210 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT FAVOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND REMOVED POPS FROM MONDAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS
IT DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STALLS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER.
024
&&
.AVIATION...
432 PM MST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FOR VALID PERIOD AND BEYOND. WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT DURING
THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5
TO 10 KTS.
50
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
