000
FXUS63 KJKL 230536
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1236 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING THAT WILL ONLY BE
REFLECTED WITH MINOR CHANGES IN THE ZONES. CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF H5 LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF KENTUCKY WITH
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REMAINING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE WITH SOME BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING
OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWER LEVELS ARE REMAINING DRY DUE TO 20 TO
30 KNOT 925 - 850 MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAKE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HARD TO COME BY AND WILL REMAIN
WITH LOW POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS
DAWN...FOCUS SHIFTS TO ANOTHER APPROACHING H5 WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE
SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z
AND WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS DURING THIS TIME. STILL
FEEL 40 PERCENT COVERAGE WILL BE REASONABLE SO WILL LET PREVIOUS
FORECAST RIDE.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE ZONES WILL DEAL WITH CURRENT TD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. STILL FEEL MID 40S IS PRETTY REASONABLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S...HAVE LOWERED THESE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE/ CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO
VALLEY REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR
PERHAPS MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND
12Z GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...KICKING OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE AND LOWER IFR TO MVFR
CIGS TO OUR SOUTH WILL ROTATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TN VALLEY
REGION...DROPPING CIGS ACROSS OUR AREA AS WELL AROUND THE EARLY
MORNING...DAWN TIME FRAME. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE KENTUCKY...
VIRGINIA...AND TENNESSEE STATE LINE HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO
REALIZE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
MONDAY EVENING WITH STRATUS BUILDING DOWN...LOWERING VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER/RAY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 230432
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1132 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH MONDAY.  AS IT DOES...SCT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KY AND THE
BLUEGRASS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE IT/S
WAY INTO CLINTON...CUMBERLAND...AND MONROE COUNTIES AS OF 1945Z THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THESE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN KY TONIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
BLUEGRASS AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  SCT PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING IT/S
RETREAT NE OUT OF THE AREA.  MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.  TOMORROW EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THAN TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

DEPARTING SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF U.S. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT H5
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GET
RE-ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL WAVE
DROPS INTO THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN.  12HR CHANGE MAPS
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM
ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NEARLY VERTICAL
STACKED SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE RUSHES SOUTHEAST AND
HELPS CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  MAIN QUESTION STILL OUT THOUGH...IS HOW STRONG WILL THIS
SECOND TROUGH BE?  THE 12Z OP GFS SOLUTION IS STRONGER WHICH IN
EFFECT DEVELOPS A MUCH DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH.  THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
IS NOT AS DEEP AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY AGREES
QUITE WELL WITH THE 12Z EURO RUN.  NONETHELESS...THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WHICH RESULT IN COLDER WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FCST...VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY.  DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW WILL ALLOW AN MODERATE INFLUX OF
MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER GFS
SOLUTION AND OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION FROM THE EURO...BEST POP
CHANCES ON TUES WILL BE WEST OF I-65 WHERE WE WILL HAVE SLGT TO CHC
POPS.  AS THE SYSTEM ROLLS EAST POP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.  A SLOT OF DRY AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT IN A TEMPORALLY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AND THU...PRECIPITATION CHCS LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  THANKSGIVING DAY 2009 LOOKS TO BE VERY
CLOUDY AND COLD AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WERE QUITE LOW IN THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS
SUGGESTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THOUGH THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS WARMED
SLIGHTLY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PREDOMINANCE OF LIQUID
RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES.  CRITICAL
THICKNESSES FALL RAPIDLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT SO SNOW SHOWERS SEEM
MORE LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
IN THE FAR SOUTH.  SIMILAR TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IF THE DRYSLOT GETS IN HERE AND WE SEE A LITTLE
CLEARING.  GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE 2M RAW GFS TEMPS HERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WED
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  AS SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT...TEMPS WILL REALLY COOL OFF WITH
LOWS THU MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THU NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

BY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ABOUND AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY.  OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT GENERALLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-75 SHOULD GET IN THE ACTION.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TRAVEL MAY BE A BIT TRICKY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH THE HOLIDAY AND SHOPPING TRAFFIC.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
12Z THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH 18Z AND THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF SHOWER.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 230320
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
943 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING THAT WILL ONLY BE
REFLECTED WITH MINOR CHANGES IN THE ZONES. CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF H5 LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF KENTUCKY WITH
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REMAINING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE WITH SOME BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING
OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWER LEVELS ARE REMAINING DRY DUE TO 20 TO
30 KNOT 925 - 850 MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAKE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HARD TO COME BY AND WILL REMAIN
WITH LOW POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS
DAWN...FOCUS SHIFTS TO ANOTHER APPROACHING H5 WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE
SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z
AND WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS DURING THIS TIME. STILL
FEEL 40 PERCENT COVERAGE WILL BE REASONABLE SO WILL LET PREVIOUS
FORECAST RIDE.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE ZONES WILL DEAL WITH CURRENT TD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. STILL FEEL MID 40S IS PRETTY REASONABLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S...HAVE LOWERED THESE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE/ CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO
VALLEY REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR
PERHAPS MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND
12Z GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

A MID LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS KICKED OFF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY DESPITE CIGS ABOVE 8 K FEET.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL
NOT FORECAST BELOW MVFR AT THIS POINT. SHOULD GET A LITTLE BIT OF
HELP AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERY LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TAF SITES OUT OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCATION NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER WITH VIRGINIA
OR WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO
MVFR AROUND DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE
AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO HANGING IN TOMORROW. CIGS SHOULD
HANG RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

...CORRECTED SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECASTER NAMES...

000
FXUS63 KJKL 230243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
943 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING THAT WILL ONLY BE
REFLECTED WITH MINOR CHANGES IN THE ZONES. CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF H5 LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF KENTUCKY WITH
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REMAINING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE WITH SOME BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING
OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWER LEVELS ARE REMAINING DRY DUE TO 20 TO
30 KNOT 925 - 850 MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAKE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HARD TO COME BY AND WILL REMAIN
WITH LOW POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS DAWN...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO ANOTHER APPROACHING H5 WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z AND WILL START TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS DURING THIS TIME. STILL FEEL 40 PERCENT
COVERAGE WILL BE REASONABLE SO WILL LET PREVIOUS FORECAST RIDE.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE ZONES WILL DEAL WITH CURRENT TD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. STILL FEEL MID 40S IS PRETTY REASONABLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S...HAVE LOWERED THESE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE/
CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO VALLEY
REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR PERHAPS
MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND 12Z
GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

A MID LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS KICKED OFF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY DESPITE CIGS ABOVE 8 K FEET.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL
NOT FORECAST BELOW MVFR AT THIS POINT. SHOULD GET A LITTLE BIT OF
HELP AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERY LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TAF SITES OUT OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCATION NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER WITH VIRGINIA
OR WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO
MVFR AROUND DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE
AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO HANGING IN TOMORROW. CIGS SHOULD
HANG RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

000
FXUS63 KPAH 230232
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
830 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PUBLIC DISCUSSION TO REMOVE SLGT/LOW CHC POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT/MONDAY AND TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER/TEMPS TONIGHT. NO
CHANGE TO AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH FORMERLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS LEAVING ALL BUT EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY DROP BELOW FCST OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF PRIMARY GULF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS WELL...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM COOLING MUCH MORE AND LIKELY RISING A BIT TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SAW NO REASON TO KEEP POPS IN SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH
WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
NECESSARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z-09Z MONDAY...AS
MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AND SHIFT
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK
BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AGL OVER KCGI/KPAH BY 13Z MONDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

AD/DH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 222328
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE/
CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO VALLEY
REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR PERHAPS
MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND 12Z
GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

A MID LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS KICKED OFF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY DESPITE CIGS ABOVE 8 K FEET.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL
NOT FORECAST BELOW MVFR AT THIS POINT. SHOULD GET A LITTLE BIT OF
HELP AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERY LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TAF SITES OUT OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCATION NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER WITH VIRGINIA
OR WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO
MVFR AROUND DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE
AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO HANGING IN TOMORROW. CIGS SHOULD
HANG RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

000
FXUS63 KLMK 222314
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
614 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH MONDAY.  AS IT DOES...SCT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KY AND THE
BLUEGRASS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE IT/S
WAY INTO CLINTON...CUMBERLAND...AND MONROE COUNTIES AS OF 1945Z THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THESE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN KY TONIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
BLUEGRASS AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  SCT PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING IT/S
RETREAT NE OUT OF THE AREA.  MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.  TOMORROW EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THAN TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

DEPARTING SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF U.S. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT H5
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GET
RE-ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL WAVE
DROPS INTO THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN.  12HR CHANGE MAPS
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM
ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NEARLY VERTICAL
STACKED SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE RUSHES SOUTHEAST AND
HELPS CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  MAIN QUESTION STILL OUT THOUGH...IS HOW STRONG WILL THIS
SECOND TROUGH BE?  THE 12Z OP GFS SOLUTION IS STRONGER WHICH IN
EFFECT DEVELOPS A MUCH DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH.  THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
IS NOT AS DEEP AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY AGREES
QUITE WELL WITH THE 12Z EURO RUN.  NONETHELESS...THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WHICH RESULT IN COLDER WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FCST...VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY.  DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW WILL ALLOW AN MODERATE INFLUX OF
MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER GFS
SOLUTION AND OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION FROM THE EURO...BEST POP
CHANCES ON TUES WILL BE WEST OF I-65 WHERE WE WILL HAVE SLGT TO CHC
POPS.  AS THE SYSTEM ROLLS EAST POP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.  A SLOT OF DRY AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT IN A TEMPORALLY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AND THU...PRECIPITATION CHCS LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  THANKSGIVING DAY 2009 LOOKS TO BE VERY
CLOUDY AND COLD AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WERE QUITE LOW IN THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS
SUGGESTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THOUGH THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS WARMED
SLIGHTLY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PREDOMINANCE OF LIQUID
RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES.  CRITICAL
THICKNESSES FALL RAPIDLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT SO SNOW SHOWERS SEEM
MORE LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
IN THE FAR SOUTH.  SIMILAR TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IF THE DRYSLOT GETS IN HERE AND WE SEE A LITTLE
CLEARING.  GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE 2M RAW GFS TEMPS HERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WED
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  AS SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT...TEMPS WILL REALLY COOL OFF WITH
LOWS THU MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THU NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

BY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ABOUND AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY.  OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT GENERALLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-75 SHOULD GET IN THE ACTION.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TRAVEL MAY BE A BIT TRICKY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH THE HOLIDAY AND SHOPPING TRAFFIC.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH
GEORGIA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOWERING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL SEE CIGS
DROP INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE NOTED.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JA

000
FXUS63 KLMK 222015
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH MONDAY.  AS IT DOES...SCT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KY AND THE
BLUEGRASS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE IT/S
WAY INTO CLINTON...CUMBERLAND...AND MONROE COUNTIES AS OF 1945Z THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THESE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN KY TONIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
BLUEGRASS AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  SCT PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING IT/S
RETREAT NE OUT OF THE AREA.  MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.  TOMORROW EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THAN TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

DEPARTING SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF U.S. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT H5
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GET
RE-ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL WAVE
DROPS INTO THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN.  12HR CHANGE MAPS
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM
ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NEARLY VERTICAL
STACKED SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE RUSHES SOUTHEAST AND
HELPS CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  MAIN QUESTION STILL OUT THOUGH...IS HOW STRONG WILL THIS
SECOND TROUGH BE?  THE 12Z OP GFS SOLUTION IS STRONGER WHICH IN
EFFECT DEVELOPS A MUCH DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH.  THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
IS NOT AS DEEP AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY AGREES
QUITE WELL WITH THE 12Z EURO RUN.  NONETHELESS...THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WHICH RESULT IN COLDER WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FCST...VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY.  DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW WILL ALLOW AN MODERATE INFLUX OF
MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER GFS
SOLUTION AND OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION FROM THE EURO...BEST POP
CHANCES ON TUES WILL BE WEST OF I-65 WHERE WE WILL HAVE SLGT TO CHC
POPS.  AS THE SYSTEM ROLLS EAST POP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.  A SLOT OF DRY AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT IN A TEMPORALLY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AND THU...PRECIPITATION CHCS LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  THANKSGIVING DAY 2009 LOOKS TO BE VERY
CLOUDY AND COLD AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WERE QUITE LOW IN THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS
SUGGESTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THOUGH THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS WARMED
SLIGHTLY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PREDOMINANCE OF LIQUID
RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES.  CRITICAL
THICKNESSES FALL RAPIDLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT SO SNOW SHOWERS SEEM
MORE LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
IN THE FAR SOUTH.  SIMILAR TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IF THE DRYSLOT GETS IN HERE AND WE SEE A LITTLE
CLEARING.  GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE 2M RAW GFS TEMPS HERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WED
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  AS SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT...TEMPS WILL REALLY COOL OFF WITH
LOWS THU MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THU NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

BY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ABOUND AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY.  OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT GENERALLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-75 SHOULD GET IN THE ACTION.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TRAVEL MAY BE A BIT TRICKY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH THE HOLIDAY AND SHOPPING TRAFFIC.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF STATES TODAY WILL
IMPACT THE REGION.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG
SIDE THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH TOMORROW.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...THIS
WILL MEAN INCREASED MID-UPPER CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES.  AFTER 4-6Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME VCSH AT BWG AND LEX.  PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE AND VERY SCT.  WILL NOT INCLUDE VCSH AT
SDF AT THIS TIME AS BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.  IN ADDITION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AT SOME RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
LIGHT MVFR BR AFTER 8Z.  LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE BETTER LL MOISTURE.

EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL TURN MORE SE TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........AML

000
FXUS63 KJKL 222001
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE/
CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO VALLEY
REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR PERHAPS
MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND 12Z
GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 3Z OR SO AS MIDDLE AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACTUAL SKY OBSERVATION AT THE OFFICE REVEAL
THAT THE CLOUDS ARE LOWERING AND THICKENING MORE SLOWLY THAN WHAT WAS
REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS TAF GRIDS. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT AT TAF
ISSUANCE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS HAD
OVERSPREAD THE SKIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...WITH BASES AROUND 15K.
THIS SLOWER LOWERING TREND OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS INCORPORATED INTO
THE 18Z TAF. THE FIRST MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT LOZ AND
SME UNTIL AFTER 5Z...AND AFTER 6Z AT JKL...WHEN CIGS OF 2-3K ARE
EXPECTED. THE FIRST RAIN DROPS WILL NOT BE OBSERVED AT THE TAF SITES
UNTIL BETWEEN 5 AND 8Z...AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE IS TOO DRY TO
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET. WILL AMEND TAF AS NECESSARY IF ABOVE CONDITIONS
CHANGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS63 KPAH 222001
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE SHORTER TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ CONTINUED
TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FOR
CLOUDS/WINDS/POP/WEATHER.

A MINOR CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG THE NORTHERN
LIMIT OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING LOW OVER
MS AT THIS TIME. KEPT THIS SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN ANY
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS MONDAY AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NE
AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAINS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MOST OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HINT AT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE AND
PRECIP SEEMS TO DECREASE AS THE H50 LOW WEAKENS AND OPENS UP DURING
THE DAY. WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS GOING ALONG/WEST OF THE MS
RVR...BUT WILL HOLD IN THE CHC CATEGORY FURTHER EAST. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT AND CARRY SOME
RAIN CHCS INTO THE EVENING OVER ERN AREAS.

THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
IN FOR WED...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR
DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING. CLOUDS WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC H85 FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S FOR THE HOLIDAY.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY OVER
CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS OF SE IL AND SW IN. WILL INTRO SMALL
CHC FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD
BE DETERMINED BY THERMO PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1500 FT...WHERE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER WAY...SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH QPF WISE. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER SOME LOCATIONS UP ALONG
THE I 64 CORRIDOR SEE THEIR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON.

SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z-09Z MONDAY...AS
MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AND SHIFT
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK
BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AGL OVER KCGI/KPAH BY 13Z MONDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

MEFFERT/SMITH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

INGESTED HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WINDS TO SEE IF FORECAST FOR THOSE
ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK. TO THIS POINT OF THE MORNING THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE MADE WAS TO
THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...WHERE THE WORDING FOR THE TODAY
PERIOD WAS FRESHENED UP A BIT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIME...BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...WITH MAINLY SFC DETAILS...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO PREFERRED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
WHICH SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL THAN RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EVENTUALLY EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TO GIVE OUR ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST A CHANCE
AT SEEING SOME RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
TODAY...EVERYWHERE ELSE BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE...I.E. LOW QPF.

THAT BEING SAID...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TONIGHT OPENING UP INTO A WAVE WITH TIME. AN ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY MONDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF RAIN GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SOMETIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA RATHER
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO RETARD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPS...WITH MOST NOTICEABLE AFFECTS REALIZED IN
OUR MORE SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT FOR
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THEN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC
WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING OUT IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE TN STATE
LINE...AROUND 40 JUST NORTH OF THERE. LIGHT RAIN WILL FOLLOW...BUT
ONLY GRADUALLY. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE AMPLE
ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING...WITH
EXPECTED DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER MAY HAMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE TWO KEY TROUGHS
AFFECTING THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHERN ONE OVER
MISSOURI IS THE STRONGER AND DEEPER ONE THAT IS CLOSED OFF AND
DESTINED TO SCOOT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS REPRESENTS THIS AS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...BUT THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH. IT IS THE SISTER
SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT BRINGS A LARGER DISCREPANCY TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING ITS CLOSING LOW FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...BY THURSDAY MORNING THEY ARE FAIRLY IN
SIMPATICO WITH THE DEEP...FULL LATITUDE...CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH THIS PROCESS THE ECMWF
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH ITS LOW CENTER THAN
THE GFS. THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH BOTH MODELS DEEPENING THE UPPER LOWS AND MOVING THEM TO
THE NORTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE ABOUT 24 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE NEW ECMWF AND BECOMES MUCH DEEPER. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND
THE TROUGH IS NOW DOMINATING THE EAST COAST WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
CLOSEST FOR THIS FORECAST GIVEN ITS LESS EXTREME SOLUTION AND BETTER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF THE FIRST UPPER LOW
SWEEPING INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH
ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST WILL SERVE TO PARK
THE PARENT SFC SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH FURTHER CONSOLIDATING AS IT SLOWLY EASES EAST AND PROVIDES
PROLONGED CAA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE REGION ACTIVATING THE
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR NEEDED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH ANY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MIX INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
SYSTEM/S WAKE TO LINGER THE THREAT OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN TO DRY US
BACK OUT AND RESTORE THE AREA TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MIX OF CONTINUITY...MEX NUMBERS AND THE MOSGUIDE
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SOME ELEVATIONAL BASED
ADJUSTMENTS...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CONSIDERING OUR RECENT TROUBLE
GETTING PCPN IN HERE...BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 3Z OR SO AS MIDDLE AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACTUAL SKY OBSERVATION AT THE OFFICE REVEAL
THAT THE CLOUDS ARE LOWERING AND THICKENING MORE SLOWLY THAN WHAT WAS
REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS TAF GRIDS. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT AT TAF
ISSUANCE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS HAD
OVERSPREAD THE SKIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...WITH BASES AROUND 15K.
THIS SLOWER LOWERING TREND OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS INCORPORATED INTO
THE 18Z TAF. THE FIRST MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT LOZ AND
SME UNTIL AFTER 5Z...AND AFTER 6Z AT JKL...WHEN CIGS OF 2-3K ARE
EXPECTED. THE FIRST RAIN DROPS WILL NOT BE OBSERVED AT THE TAF SITES
UNTIL BETWEEN 5 AND 8Z...AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE IS TOO DRY TO
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET. WILL AMEND TAF AS NECESSARY IF ABOVE CONDITIONS
CHANGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/AR
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS63 KPAH 221731 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1131 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
FIRST PERIOD /TODAY/ ADJUSTMENTS AND 18Z SUNDAY ROUTINE TAF
ISSUANCE DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REFINED CLOUD COVER...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
WEATHER TRENDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z-09Z MONDAY...AS
MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AND SHIFT NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK
BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AGL OVER KCGI/KPAH BY 13Z MONDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SMITH

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1220 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING.  TWEAKED SKY COVER UP A BIT
SINCE CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY COVERED MOST OF THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPTS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS.  20-30% POPS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TODAY WILL BEING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE MID
TN/APPALACHIANS REGION. WHILE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND SPC WRF
BOTH INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. EXPECT THAT SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PROMINENT DURING THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THANKSGIVING...

BY MONDAY THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NE JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ITS UPPER LOW WILL BE NE OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL/SWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN. HOWEVER A
RIPPLE IN THIS FLOW IS GENERATING VERY LARGE POPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SO IT SEEMS LIKE A HIGH CHC FOR
LITTLE PRECIP. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SHORTWAVE PANNING
OUT...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS EAST (CLOSER TO OTHER ENERGY) AND SLIGHT
CHC POPS WEST FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS RIPPLE IS EAST OF
THE CWA SO KEPT MON NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW. IN THE QUICK SWRLY/ZONAL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
(AS EARLY AS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST) AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE CHC WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
JUST HAVE SLT CHC POPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND MOVING NNE OUT OF THE CWA.

THIS UPPER AND SFC LOW BOTH GET WRAPPED UP QUICKLY AND HEAD NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIVES SE FROM CANADA
TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE
REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE. BEING A STRONG
UPPER LOW...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE PRECIP TYPE IS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE HERE. THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS IN DURING THE DAY
ON THANKSGIVING...SO THINK PRECIP WILL START OFF AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN 500MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS
COULD GENERATE EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR A TRANSITION
OVER TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT COLDER NOW...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WILL JUST BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION AMPLE SUBFREEZING TEMPS PROGGED JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. EITHER WAY IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE VERY LIGHT PRECIP. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE RA/SN MIX WORDING FOR LATE TURKEY DAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPS...THANKSGIVING WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY MON-THRS
WITH THE COLD CANADIAN LOW OVERHEAD/PASSING THROUGH. WILL BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LOW 40S FOR THANKSGIVING.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR WITH UPPER LOWS
MOVING OVERHEAD BOTH DAYS...LOOKING AT LOW-MID 50S FOR HIGHS THESE
DAYS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THAT MARKS THE QUICK
TRANSITION IN BETWEEN UPPER LOWS AND A SHORT-LIVED SWRLY FLOW WILL
SET UP. LOOK FOR MID-UPPER 50S MOST PLACES...TO NEAR 60 SOUTH FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND EXPECTED. HIGHS FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. AGAIN THE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
DOWNWARD MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF STATES TODAY WILL
IMPACT THE REGION.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG
SIDE THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH TOMORROW.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...THIS
WILL MEAN INCREASED MID-UPPER CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES.  AFTER 4-6Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME VCSH AT BWG AND LEX.  PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE AND VERY SCT.  WILL NOT INCLUDE VCSH AT
SDF AT THIS TIME AS BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.  IN ADDITION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AT SOME RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
LIGHT MVFR BR AFTER 8Z.  LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE BETTER LL MOISTURE.

EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL TURN MORE SE TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........AML
SHORT TERM.....LS
LONG TERM......AL
AVIATION.......AML

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221609
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1109 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

INGESTED HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WINDS TO SEE IF FORECAST FOR THOSE
ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK. TO THIS POINT OF THE MORNING THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE MADE WAS TO
THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...WHERE THE WORDING FOR THE TODAY
PERIOD WAS FRESHENED UP A BIT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIME...BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...WITH MAINLY SFC DETAILS...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO PREFERRED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
WHICH SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL THAN RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EVENTUALLY EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TO GIVE OUR ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST A CHANCE
AT SEEING SOME RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
TODAY...EVERYWHERE ELSE BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE...I.E. LOW QPF.

THAT BEING SAID...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TONIGHT OPENING UP INTO A WAVE WITH TIME. AN ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY MONDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF RAIN GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SOMETIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA RATHER
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO RETARD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPS...WITH MOST NOTICEABLE AFFECTS REALIZED IN
OUR MORE SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT FOR
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THEN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC
WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING OUT IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE TN STATE
LINE...AROUND 40 JUST NORTH OF THERE. LIGHT RAIN WILL FOLLOW...BUT
ONLY GRADUALLY. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE AMPLE
ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING...WITH
EXPECTED DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER MAY HAMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE TWO KEY TROUGHS
AFFECTING THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHERN ONE OVER
MISSOURI IS THE STRONGER AND DEEPER ONE THAT IS CLOSED OFF AND
DESTINED TO SCOOT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS REPRESENTS THIS AS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...BUT THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH. IT IS THE SISTER
SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT BRINGS A LARGER DISCREPANCY TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING ITS CLOSING LOW FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...BY THURSDAY MORNING THEY ARE FAIRLY IN
SIMPATICO WITH THE DEEP...FULL LATITUDE...CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH THIS PROCESS THE ECMWF
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH ITS LOW CENTER THAN
THE GFS. THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH BOTH MODELS DEEPENING THE UPPER LOWS AND MOVING THEM TO
THE NORTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE ABOUT 24 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE NEW ECMWF AND BECOMES MUCH DEEPER. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND
THE TROUGH IS NOW DOMINATING THE EAST COAST WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
CLOSEST FOR THIS FORECAST GIVEN ITS LESS EXTREME SOLUTION AND BETTER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF THE FIRST UPPER LOW
SWEEPING INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH
ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST WILL SERVE TO PARK
THE PARENT SFC SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH FURTHER CONSOLIDATING AS IT SLOWLY EASES EAST AND PROVIDES
PROLONGED CAA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE REGION ACTIVATING THE
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR NEEDED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH ANY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MIX INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
SYSTEM/S WAKE TO LINGER THE THREAT OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN TO DRY US
BACK OUT AND RESTORE THE AREA TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MIX OF CONTINUITY...MEX NUMBERS AND THE MOSGUIDE
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SOME ELEVATIONAL BASED
ADJUSTMENTS...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CONSIDERING OUR RECENT TROUBLE
GETTING PCPN IN HERE...BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...CIGS WILL
LOWER TO ABOUT 4K FEET ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...
FOR THIS...HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO EACH OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z...
STARTING IN THE SOUTH FIRST AND NORTH LAST. THE CIGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 3K FEET IN SHOWERS WITH MVFR VIS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/AR
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221526
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1026 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...FORECAST UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING.  TWEAKED SKY COVER UP A BIT
SINCE CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY COVERED MOST OF THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPTS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS.  20-30% POPS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TODAY WILL BEING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE MID
TN/APPALACHIANS REGION. WHILE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND SPC WRF
BOTH INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. EXPECT THAT SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PROMINENT DURING THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THANKSGIVING...

BY MONDAY THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NE JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ITS UPPER LOW WILL BE NE OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL/SWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN. HOWEVER A
RIPPLE IN THIS FLOW IS GENERATING VERY LARGE POPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SO IT SEEMS LIKE A HIGH CHC FOR
LITTLE PRECIP. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SHORTWAVE PANNING
OUT...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS EAST (CLOSER TO OTHER ENERGY) AND SLIGHT
CHC POPS WEST FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS RIPPLE IS EAST OF
THE CWA SO KEPT MON NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW. IN THE QUICK SWRLY/ZONAL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
(AS EARLY AS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST) AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE CHC WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
JUST HAVE SLT CHC POPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND MOVING NNE OUT OF THE CWA.

THIS UPPER AND SFC LOW BOTH GET WRAPPED UP QUICKLY AND HEAD NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIVES SE FROM CANADA
TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE
REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE. BEING A STRONG
UPPER LOW...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE PRECIP TYPE IS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE HERE. THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS IN DURING THE DAY
ON THANKSGIVING...SO THINK PRECIP WILL START OFF AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN 500MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS
COULD GENERATE EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR A TRANSITION
OVER TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT COLDER NOW...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WILL JUST BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION AMPLE SUBFREEZING TEMPS PROGGED JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. EITHER WAY IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE VERY LIGHT PRECIP. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE RA/SN MIX WORDING FOR LATE TURKEY DAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPS...THANKSGIVING WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY MON-THRS
WITH THE COLD CANADIAN LOW OVERHEAD/PASSING THROUGH. WILL BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LOW 40S FOR THANKSGIVING.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR WITH UPPER LOWS
MOVING OVERHEAD BOTH DAYS...LOOKING AT LOW-MID 50S FOR HIGHS THESE
DAYS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THAT MARKS THE QUICK
TRANSITION IN BETWEEN UPPER LOWS AND A SHORT-LIVED SWRLY FLOW WILL
SET UP. LOOK FOR MID-UPPER 50S MOST PLACES...TO NEAR 60 SOUTH FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND EXPECTED. HIGHS FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. AGAIN THE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
DOWNWARD MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 5SM AT BWG AND SDF
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT BWG OR LEX EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........AML
SHORT TERM.....LS
LONG TERM......AL
AVIATION.......LS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 221149 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
549 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z SUNDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE PRESENTATION /SEE AVIATION SECTION/.

NO CHANGE TO DISCUSSION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN ON A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH...IS PRECLUDING FOG DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF ILLINOIS
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SHAWNEE HILLS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS.

THE CLOSED 500MB SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
OPENING UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS AT
LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO VEERING AND SATURATION FROM ALOFT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS. RESTRICTED SLGT/LOW CHC POPS TO THE PENNYRILE AND EXTREME
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
QUESTIONABLE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN...SO EITHER WAY
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
KEPT CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP TEMPS
SUN/MON NIGHTS AND CUT MONDAYS HIGHS BY A COUPLE IN RESPONSE.

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOW SEEMED TO HAVE
SETTLED ON A SOLUTION...AT LEAST FOR THE QPF. AS FAR AS THE UPPER
LOW POSITION...MODELS SOLUTIONS STILL VARY GREATLY.
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR
WEST KENTUCKY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND DIVING DOWN INTO OUR AREA. IF ANY PRECIP
RESULTS FROM THIS WAVE...IT WILL BE UP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR. THIS SYSTEM PIVOTS AROUND AND BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL BE A
FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOME VERY COLD AIR WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. H85 TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE -5 TO -7 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL YIELD A CHILLY DAY. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AND MODEL CONSISTENCY
HAS NOT BEEN THAT GREAT TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY POP AT
THIS TIME. WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BEFORE ADDING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY
AT KEVV...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 08Z
MONDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF CIRRUS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN AND OVERCAST HIGH END
MIDDLE CLOUD DECKS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MVFR VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 4-5 STATUTE MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08-12Z MONDAY
AT EACH TAF SITE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SMITH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221140 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIME...BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...WITH MAINLY SFC DETAILS...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO PREFERRED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
WHICH SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL THAN RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EVENTUALLY EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TO GIVE OUR ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST A CHANCE
AT SEEING SOME RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
TODAY...EVERYWHERE ELSE BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE...I.E. LOW QPF.

THAT BEING SAID...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TONIGHT OPENING UP INTO A WAVE WITH TIME. AN ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY MONDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF RAIN GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SOMETIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA RATHER
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO RETARD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPS...WITH MOST NOTICEABLE AFFECTS REALIZED IN
OUR MORE SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT FOR
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THEN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC
WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING OUT IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE TN STATE
LINE...AROUND 40 JUST NORTH OF THERE. LIGHT RAIN WILL FOLLOW...BUT
ONLY GRADUALLY. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE AMPLE
ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING...WITH
EXPECTED DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER MAY HAMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE TWO KEY TROUGHS
AFFECTING THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHERN ONE OVER
MISSOURI IS THE STRONGER AND DEEPER ONE THAT IS CLOSED OFF AND
DESTINED TO SCOOT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS REPRESENTS THIS AS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...BUT THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH. IT IS THE SISTER
SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT BRINGS A LARGER DISCREPANCY TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING ITS CLOSING LOW FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...BY THURSDAY MORNING THEY ARE FAIRLY IN
SIMPATICO WITH THE DEEP...FULL LATITUDE...CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH THIS PROCESS THE ECMWF
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH ITS LOW CENTER THAN
THE GFS. THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH BOTH MODELS DEEPENING THE UPPER LOWS AND MOVING THEM TO
THE NORTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE ABOUT 24 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE NEW ECMWF AND BECOMES MUCH DEEPER. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND
THE TROUGH IS NOW DOMINATING THE EAST COAST WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
CLOSEST FOR THIS FORECAST GIVEN ITS LESS EXTREME SOLUTION AND BETTER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF THE FIRST UPPER LOW
SWEEPING INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH
ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST WILL SERVE TO PARK
THE PARENT SFC SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH FURTHER CONSOLIDATING AS IT SLOWLY EASES EAST AND PROVIDES
PROLONGED CAA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE REGION ACTIVATING THE
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR NEEDED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH ANY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MIX INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
SYSTEM/S WAKE TO LINGER THE THREAT OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN TO DRY US
BACK OUT AND RESTORE THE AREA TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MIX OF CONTINUITY...MEX NUMBERS AND THE MOSGUIDE
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SOME ELEVATIONAL BASED
ADJUSTMENTS...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CONSIDERING OUR RECENT TROUBLE
GETTING PCPN IN HERE...BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...CIGS WILL
LOWER TO ABOUT 4K FEET ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...
FOR THIS...HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO EACH OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z...
STARTING IN THE SOUTH FIRST AND NORTH LAST. THE CIGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 3K FEET IN SHOWERS WITH MVFR VIS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
557 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TODAY WILL BEING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE MID
TN/APPALACHIANS REGION. WHILE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND SPC WRF
BOTH INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. EXPECT THAT SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PROMINENT DURING THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THANKSGIVING...

BY MONDAY THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NE JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ITS UPPER LOW WILL BE NE OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL/SWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN. HOWEVER A
RIPPLE IN THIS FLOW IS GENERATING VERY LARGE POPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SO IT SEEMS LIKE A HIGH CHC FOR
LITTLE PRECIP. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SHORTWAVE PANNING
OUT...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS EAST (CLOSER TO OTHER ENERGY) AND SLIGHT
CHC POPS WEST FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS RIPPLE IS EAST OF
THE CWA SO KEPT MON NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW. IN THE QUICK SWRLY/ZONAL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
(AS EARLY AS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST) AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE CHC WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
JUST HAVE SLT CHC POPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND MOVING NNE OUT OF THE CWA.

THIS UPPER AND SFC LOW BOTH GET WRAPPED UP QUICKLY AND HEAD NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIVES SE FROM CANADA
TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE
REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE. BEING A STRONG
UPPER LOW...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE PRECIP TYPE IS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE HERE. THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS IN DURING THE DAY
ON THANKSGIVING...SO THINK PRECIP WILL START OFF AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN 500MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS
COULD GENERATE EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR A TRANSITION
OVER TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT COLDER NOW...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WILL JUST BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION AMPLE SUBFREEZING TEMPS PROGGED JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. EITHER WAY IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE VERY LIGHT PRECIP. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE RA/SN MIX WORDING FOR LATE TURKEY DAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPS...THANKSGIVING WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY MON-THRS
WITH THE COLD CANADIAN LOW OVERHEAD/PASSING THROUGH. WILL BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LOW 40S FOR THANKSGIVING.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR WITH UPPER LOWS
MOVING OVERHEAD BOTH DAYS...LOOKING AT LOW-MID 50S FOR HIGHS THESE
DAYS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THAT MARKS THE QUICK
TRANSITION IN BETWEEN UPPER LOWS AND A SHORT-LIVED SWRLY FLOW WILL
SET UP. LOOK FOR MID-UPPER 50S MOST PLACES...TO NEAR 60 SOUTH FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND EXPECTED. HIGHS FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. AGAIN THE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
DOWNWARD MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 5SM AT BWG AND SDF
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT BWG OR LEX EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........LS
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........LS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 220847
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN ON A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...IS
PRECLUDING FOG DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF ILLINOIS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE SHAWNEE HILLS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS.

THE CLOSED 500MB SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
OPENING UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS AT
LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO VEERING AND SATURATION FROM ALOFT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS. RESTRICTED SLGT/LOW CHC POPS TO THE PENNYRILE AND EXTREME
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
QUESTIONABLE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN...SO EITHER WAY
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
KEPT CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP TEMPS
SUN/MON NIGHTS AND CUT MONDAYS HIGHS BY A COUPLE IN RESPONSE.

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOW SEEMED TO HAVE
SETTLED ON A SOLUTION...AT LEAST FOR THE QPF. AS FAR AS THE UPPER
LOW POSITION...MODELS SOLUTIONS STILL VARY GREATLY.
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR
WEST KENTUCKY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND DIVING DOWN INTO OUR AREA. IF ANY PRECIP
RESULTS FROM THIS WAVE...IT WILL BE UP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR. THIS SYSTEM PIVOTS AROUND AND BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL BE A
FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOME VERY COLD AIR WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. H85 TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE -5 TO -7 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL YIELD A CHILLY DAY. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AND MODEL CONSISTENCY
HAS NOT BEEN THAT GREAT TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY POP AT
THIS TIME. WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BEFORE ADDING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD...ALL TAF LOCATIONS WERE KEPT IN VFR
CATEGORY...WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220800 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIME...BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...WITH MAINLY SFC DETAILS...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO PREFERRED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
WHICH SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL THAN RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EVENTUALLY EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TO GIVE OUR ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST A CHANCE
AT SEEING SOME RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
TODAY...EVERYWHERE ELSE BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE...I.E. LOW QPF.

THAT BEING SAID...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TONIGHT OPENING UP INTO A WAVE WITH TIME. AN ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY MONDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF RAIN GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SOMETIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA RATHER
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO RETARD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPS...WITH MOST NOTICEABLE AFFECTS REALIZED IN
OUR MORE SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT FOR
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THEN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC
WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING OUT IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE TN STATE
LINE...AROUND 40 JUST NORTH OF THERE. LIGHT RAIN WILL FOLLOW...BUT
ONLY GRADUALLY. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE AMPLE
ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING...WITH
EXPECTED DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER MAY HAMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE TWO KEY TROUGHS
AFFECTING THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHERN ONE OVER
MISSOURI IS THE STRONGER AND DEEPER ONE THAT IS CLOSED OFF AND
DESTINED TO SCOOT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS REPRESENTS THIS AS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...BUT THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH. IT IS THE SISTER
SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT BRINGS A LARGER DISCREPANCY TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING ITS CLOSING LOW FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...BY THURSDAY MORNING THEY ARE FAIRLY IN
SIMPATICO WITH THE DEEP...FULL LATITUDE...CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH THIS PROCESS THE ECMWF
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH ITS LOW CENTER THAN
THE GFS. THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH BOTH MODELS DEEPENING THE UPPER LOWS AND MOVING THEM TO
THE NORTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE ABOUT 24 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE NEW ECMWF AND BECOMES MUCH DEEPER. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND
THE TROUGH IS NOW DOMINATING THE EAST COAST WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
CLOSEST FOR THIS FORECAST GIVEN ITS LESS EXTREME SOLUTION AND BETTER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF THE FIRST UPPER LOW
SWEEPING INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH
ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST WILL SERVE TO PARK
THE PARENT SFC SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH FURTHER CONSOLIDATING AS IT SLOWLY EASES EAST AND PROVIDES
PROLONGED CAA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE REGION ACTIVATING THE
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR NEEDED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH ANY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MIX INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
SYSTEM/S WAKE TO LINGER THE THREAT OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN TO DRY US
BACK OUT AND RESTORE THE AREA TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MIX OF CONTINUITY...MEX NUMBERS AND THE MOSGUIDE
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SOME ELEVATIONAL BASED
ADJUSTMENTS...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CONSIDERING OUR RECENT TROUBLE
GETTING PCPN IN HERE...BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE SME TAF AS A TEMPO GROUP.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...CIGS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 4K FEET ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...FOR THIS...HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO EACH
OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...STARTING IN THE SOUTH FIRST AND
NORTH LAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 220742
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
242 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TODAY WILL BEING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE MID
TN/APPALACHIANS REGION. WHILE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND SPC WRF
BOTH INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. EXPECT THAT SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PROMINENT DURING THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THANKSGIVING...

BY MONDAY THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NE JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ITS UPPER LOW WILL BE NE OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL/SWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN. HOWEVER A
RIPPLE IN THIS FLOW IS GENERATING VERY LARGE POPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SO IT SEEMS LIKE A HIGH CHC FOR
LITTLE PRECIP. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SHORTWAVE PANNING
OUT...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS EAST (CLOSER TO OTHER ENERGY) AND SLIGHT
CHC POPS WEST FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS RIPPLE IS EAST OF
THE CWA SO KEPT MON NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW. IN THE QUICK SWRLY/ZONAL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
(AS EARLY AS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST) AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE CHC WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
JUST HAVE SLT CHC POPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND MOVING NNE OUT OF THE CWA.

THIS UPPER AND SFC LOW BOTH GET WRAPPED UP QUICKLY AND HEAD NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIVES SE FROM CANADA
TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE
REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE. BEING A STRONG
UPPER LOW...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE PRECIP TYPE IS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE HERE. THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS IN DURING THE DAY
ON THANKSGIVING...SO THINK PRECIP WILL START OFF AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN 500MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS
COULD GENERATE EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR A TRANSITION
OVER TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT COLDER NOW...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WILL JUST BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION AMPLE SUBFREEZING TEMPS PROGGED JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. EITHER WAY IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE VERY LIGHT PRECIP. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE RA/SN MIX WORDING FOR LATE TURKEY DAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPS...THANKSGIVING WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY MON-THRS
WITH THE COLD CANADIAN LOW OVERHEAD/PASSING THROUGH. WILL BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LOW 40S FOR THANKSGIVING.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR WITH UPPER LOWS
MOVING OVERHEAD BOTH DAYS...LOOKING AT LOW-MID 50S FOR HIGHS THESE
DAYS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THAT MARKS THE QUICK
TRANSITION IN BETWEEN UPPER LOWS AND A SHORT-LIVED SWRLY FLOW WILL
SET UP. LOOK FOR MID-UPPER 50S MOST PLACES...TO NEAR 60 SOUTH FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND EXPECTED. HIGHS FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. AGAIN THE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
DOWNWARD MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 08 THROUGH 13Z WITH FOG BEING
THE RESTRICTION.... OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........LS
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1250 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/

A VERY MINOR UPDATE TO THE ZFP THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. SOME OB TEMPS ARE ALREADY SHOWING
THE MID 30S IN THE EAST AND FEEL THAT THE LOWER 30S WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 20 DEGREE READINGS. EVERYTHING ELSE
LOOKS ON TRACK AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STREAM INTO
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS SKY COVER SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TD/S.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

AN SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WORKED INTO THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THINNING OUT OF THE
CIRRUS. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PREVALENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH MUCH OF IT HAVING MOVED MORE EAST THAN NORTH. HOWEVER...
CIRRUS OVER MIDDLE AND WESTERN TN APPEARS TO BE ON COURSE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. GIVEN THE SLOWER TIMING...INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALSO APPEARS TO BE DELAYED FROM YESTERDAY BY AS
MUCH AS 12 HRS OR SO LATER...SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/20TH ECMWF. THE 12Z
GFS SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN FROM THE 6Z RUN AND YESTERDAY...BUT IS
STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM OR 15Z SREF.
EVEN THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART AFTER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
EXITS EARLY ON MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
AT THE SFC...THE REFLECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK WITH ONLY AN
INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES.

WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE CIRRUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT. LOWER 30S IN SOME VALLEYS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AGAIN GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON ON. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM TODAYS READINGS A
BIT...THOUGH MORE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
THE LEAST CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD END UP WARMEST. THIS WAS ALREADY
DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH TIMING HAVING SLOWED
SOME MORE...OPTED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES...EVEN ACROSS
THE SOUTH...THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE 12Z MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE TOO WARM...SO COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 12Z MAV AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...LEANING BIT MORE TOWARD THE 12Z MAV CONSISTENT WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. AS FAR AS POPS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN...AND WITH THAT IN MIND...ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME SOUTH LATE. CONTINUED WITH POPS ON SUN
NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THEN CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE INTO MON AND SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SE EARLY MON NIGHT WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH TEMPS HOLDING BACK MON
HIGHS AND HOLDING UP MON NIGHT LOWS...AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS FOR DAYS
3-7...DECIDED TO LIVE AND DIE BY THE GFS SOLUTION AGAIN TODAY.
ADJUSTED THE POP...SKY...AND WEATHER GRIDS TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE
12Z GFS RUN. THE GFS IS 6-12 HOURS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF A LARGE OF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL RAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BRING A LARGE AREA OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 HOUR OF PERIOD OF AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...DECIDED TO LOWER HOURLY AND MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME FRAME AND TO INTRODUCE A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST. THE TWO VERY LIMITING
FACTORS FOR SNOW FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL -10 TO -20C ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE...AND A LESS THAN FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD...GOING
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR HIGHS AND LOWS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS REQUIRED ONLY
THE MOST MINOR OF ADJUSTMENTS. WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY PER
THE CHANGES MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE SME TAF AS A TEMPO GROUP.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...CIGS WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 4K FEET ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...FOR THIS...HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO EACH
OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...STARTING IN THE SOUTH FIRST AND
NORTH LAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 220441
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE NE INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATE TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TOWARD
SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S OVER THE BLUEGRASS/SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SITS TO OUR SOUTH OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AT THE SFC AND MOVE NORTH UP INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP
SOUTH OF OUR FA...THE 12Z GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP FIELD AND IT DOES BRING SOME UP INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE A 20% POP IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE TN BORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF MORE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN FA...WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY TO UPPER 50S
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTH CENTRAL KY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA.  CUT OFF 500MB OVER THE MS DELTA REGION IS FCST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER STRONG H5 WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO THE PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING H5
WAVE...A SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE UP OUT OF THE GULF
AND TRACK NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  WITH THIS TRACK...SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST.  OVERALL...THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA IS DRIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FCST.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE NORTH WITH MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.  HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY
IN THE FORM OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH A LARGE 500 MB GYRE LEFT
SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  HERE WE`LL BE
RUNNING THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS
INITIAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...LARGE LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL
DROP DOWN OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
H5 CIRCULATION IN THE LAKES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL START OFF
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.  MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. LOWS WED NIGHT LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VERY LARGE H5 CUT OFF LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SFC LOW WILL LOOKS TO BE STACKED RIGHT
UNDERNEATH OF THE UPPER LOW WITH MUCH OF OUR REGION BEING LOCKED
INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION.  LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
TO STAY IN THE REGION...SO THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOUDY
AND COOL WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE NORTH AND MID 40S DOWN SOUTH.  THE RAW MODEL DATA IS
COOLER...AND THE TREND IN THE DATA CONTINUES TO GO DOWN.  SO FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.  NORTHWEST
FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE THU NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.  SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED.  HIGHS
FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH TO
THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.  AGAIN THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE IS COOLER
AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD MAY BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 08 THROUGH 13Z WITH FOG BEING
THE RESTRICTION.... OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220159
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
859 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

A VERY MINOR UPDATE TO THE ZFP THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. SOME OB TEMPS ARE ALREADY SHOWING
THE MID 30S IN THE EAST AND FEEL THAT THE LOWER 30S WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 20 DEGREE READINGS. EVERYTHING ELSE
LOOKS ON TRACK AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STREAM INTO
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS SKY COVER SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL REMAIN HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER TD/S.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

AN SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WORKED INTO THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THINNING OUT OF THE
CIRRUS. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PREVALENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH MUCH OF IT HAVING MOVED MORE EAST THAN NORTH. HOWEVER...
CIRRUS OVER MIDDLE AND WESTERN TN APPEARS TO BE ON COURSE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. GIVEN THE SLOWER TIMING...INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALSO APPEARS TO BE DELAYED FROM YESTERDAY BY AS
MUCH AS 12 HRS OR SO LATER...SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/20TH ECMWF. THE 12Z
GFS SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN FROM THE 6Z RUN AND YESTERDAY...BUT IS
STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM OR 15Z SREF.
EVEN THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART AFTER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
EXITS EARLY ON MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
AT THE SFC...THE REFLECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK WITH ONLY AN
INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES.

WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE CIRRUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT. LOWER 30S IN SOME VALLEYS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AGAIN GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON ON. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM TODAYS READINGS A
BIT...THOUGH MORE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
THE LEAST CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD END UP WARMEST. THIS WAS ALREADY
DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH TIMING HAVING SLOWED
SOME MORE...OPTED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES...EVEN ACROSS
THE SOUTH...THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE 12Z MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE TOO WARM...SO COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 12Z MAV AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...LEANING BIT MORE TOWARD THE 12Z MAV CONSISTENT WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. AS FAR AS POPS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN...AND WITH THAT IN MIND...ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME SOUTH LATE. CONTINUED WITH POPS ON SUN
NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THEN CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE INTO MON AND SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SE EARLY MON NIGHT WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH TEMPS HOLDING BACK MON
HIGHS AND HOLDING UP MON NIGHT LOWS...AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS FOR DAYS
3-7...DECIDED TO LIVE AND DIE BY THE GFS SOLUTION AGAIN TODAY.
ADJUSTED THE POP...SKY...AND WEATHER GRIDS TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE
12Z GFS RUN. THE GFS IS 6-12 HOURS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF A LARGE OF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL RAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BRING A LARGE AREA OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 HOUR OF PERIOD OF AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...DECIDED TO LOWER HOURLY AND MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME FRAME AND TO INTRODUCE A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST. THE TWO VERY LIMITING
FACTORS FOR SNOW FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL -10 TO -20C ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE...AND A LESS THAN FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD...GOING
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR HIGHS AND LOWS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS REQUIRED ONLY
THE MOST MINOR OF ADJUSTMENTS. WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY PER
THE CHANGES MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP AT KSME AROUND DAWN TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE DROP AROUND THE
VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIGS TO AROUND 15 K FEET AFTER MID MORNING. ANY RAIN SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD IS OVER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

000
FXUS63 KJKL 212319
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
619 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

AN SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WORKED INTO THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THINNING OUT OF THE
CIRRUS. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PREVALENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH MUCH OF IT HAVING MOVED MORE EAST THAN NORTH. HOWEVER...
CIRRUS OVER MIDDLE AND WESTERN TN APPEARS TO BE ON COURSE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. GIVEN THE SLOWER TIMING...INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALSO APPEARS TO BE DELAYED FROM YESTERDAY BY AS
MUCH AS 12 HRS OR SO LATER...SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/20TH ECMWF. THE 12Z
GFS SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN FROM THE 6Z RUN AND YESTERDAY...BUT IS
STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM OR 15Z SREF.
EVEN THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART AFTER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
EXITS EARLY ON MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
AT THE SFC...THE REFLECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK WITH ONLY AN
INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES.

WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE CIRRUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT. LOWER 30S IN SOME VALLEYS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AGAIN GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON ON. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM TODAYS READINGS A
BIT...THOUGH MORE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
THE LEAST CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD END UP WARMEST. THIS WAS ALREADY
DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH TIMING HAVING SLOWED
SOME MORE...OPTED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES...EVEN ACROSS
THE SOUTH...THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE 12Z MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE TOO WARM...SO COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 12Z MAV AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...LEANING BIT MORE TOWARD THE 12Z MAV CONSISTENT WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. AS FAR AS POPS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN...AND WITH THAT IN MIND...ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME SOUTH LATE. CONTINUED WITH POPS ON SUN
NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THEN CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE INTO MON AND SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SE EARLY MON NIGHT WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH TEMPS HOLDING BACK MON
HIGHS AND HOLDING UP MON NIGHT LOWS...AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS FOR DAYS
3-7...DECIDED TO LIVE AND DIE BY THE GFS SOLUTION AGAIN TODAY.
ADJUSTED THE POP...SKY...AND WEATHER GRIDS TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE
12Z GFS RUN. THE GFS IS 6-12 HOURS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF A LARGE OF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL RAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BRING A LARGE AREA OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 HOUR OF PERIOD OF AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...DECIDED TO LOWER HOURLY AND MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME FRAME AND TO INTRODUCE A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST. THE TWO VERY LIMITING
FACTORS FOR SNOW FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL -10 TO -20C ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE...AND A LESS THAN FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD...GOING
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR HIGHS AND LOWS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS REQUIRED ONLY
THE MOST MINOR OF ADJUSTMENTS. WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY PER
THE CHANGES MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG PRESENT IN THE VALLEYS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP AT KSME AROUND DAWN TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE DROP AROUND THE
VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIGS TO AROUND 15 K FEET AFTER MID MORNING. ANY RAIN SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD IS OVER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

000
FXUS63 KLMK 212308
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE NE INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATE TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TOWARD
SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S OVER THE BLUEGRASS/SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SITS TO OUR SOUTH OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AT THE SFC AND MOVE NORTH UP INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP
SOUTH OF OUR FA...THE 12Z GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP FIELD AND IT DOES BRING SOME UP INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE A 20% POP IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE TN BORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF MORE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN FA...WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY TO UPPER 50S
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTH CENTRAL KY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA.  CUT OFF 500MB OVER THE MS DELTA REGION IS FCST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER STRONG H5 WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO THE PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING H5
WAVE...A SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE UP OUT OF THE GULF
AND TRACK NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  WITH THIS TRACK...SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST.  OVERALL...THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA IS DRIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FCST.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE NORTH WITH MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.  HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY
IN THE FORM OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH A LARGE 500 MB GYRE LEFT
SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  HERE WE`LL BE
RUNNING THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS
INITIAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...LARGE LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL
DROP DOWN OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
H5 CIRCULATION IN THE LAKES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL START OFF
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.  MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. LOWS WED NIGHT LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VERY LARGE H5 CUT OFF LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SFC LOW WILL LOOKS TO BE STACKED RIGHT
UNDERNEATH OF THE UPPER LOW WITH MUCH OF OUR REGION BEING LOCKED
INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION.  LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
TO STAY IN THE REGION...SO THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOUDY
AND COOL WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE NORTH AND MID 40S DOWN SOUTH.  THE RAW MODEL DATA IS
COOLER...AND THE TREND IN THE DATA CONTINUES TO GO DOWN.  SO FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.  NORTHWEST
FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE THU NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.  SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED.  HIGHS
FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH TO
THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.  AGAIN THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE IS COOLER
AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD MAY BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AND AN EAT TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WILL WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS
WITH FOG BEING THE RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 16Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JA

000
FXUS63 KPAH 212059
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORTER TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ LEANED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FOR
CLOUDS/WINDS/POP/WEATHER...ADJUSTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO
COMPENSATE FOR MINOR HEIGHT/MASS FIELD VARIANCE FROM OBSERVED 12Z
SATURDAY OBSERVATIONS.

INTRODUCED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE
REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MONDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH LIFT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE OPENING UPPER
LOW/WAVE MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY 12Z MONDAY.

SHOULD BE A SHORT BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. HOWEVER...NEXT MID LVL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUE/TUE EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ONE THIS WEEKEND...AND SHOULD HAVE
A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE TO TAP AS IT HEADS EAST. WILL BUMP RAIN CHCS
UP SOME WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELY POPS AT THIS
POINT DUE MAINLY TO TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS/ECMWF. REALLY BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL GET WET EITHER TUE OF TUE
EVENING...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE IMPRESSIVE.

THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN FOR
WED...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING.
THOUGH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...CLOUDS AND
DEEP CYCLONIC MID LVL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER AND MID 40S FOR THE HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...A SLOW WARMING
TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE...ADDED A PERIODIC
MENTION OF MVFR FOG TO KCGI IN THE 09-13Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO
ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHT VARIABILITY WIND WIND FLOW NEAR THE DIVERSION
CHANNEL NEXT TO THE OBSERVATION SITE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING TAF
LOCATIONS WERE KEPT IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF CIRRUS SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST WITH TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SMITH/MEFFERT

000
FXUS63 KJKL 212047
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

AN SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WORKED INTO THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THINNING OUT OF THE
CIRRUS. CIRRUS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PREVALENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH MUCH OF IT HAVING MOVED MORE EAST THAN NORTH. HOWEVER...
CIRRUS OVER MIDDLE AND WESTERN TN APPEARS TO BE ON COURSE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION.

MODELS CONTINUE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
MOVE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE SUN NIGHT. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. GIVEN THE SLOWER TIMING...INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALSO APPEARS TO BE DELAYED FROM YESTERDAY BY AS
MUCH AS 12 HRS OR SO LATER...SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/20TH ECMWF. THE 12Z
GFS SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN FROM THE 6Z RUN AND YESTERDAY...BUT IS
STILL SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM OR 15Z SREF.
EVEN THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEPART AFTER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
EXITS EARLY ON MON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
AT THE SFC...THE REFLECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK WITH ONLY AN
INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES.

WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...A
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE CIRRUS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN VALLEYS TONIGHT. LOWER 30S IN SOME VALLEYS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AGAIN GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUN...ESPECIALLY FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON ON. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM TODAYS READINGS A
BIT...THOUGH MORE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
THE LEAST CLOUD COVER AND SHOULD END UP WARMEST. THIS WAS ALREADY
DEPICTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WITH TIMING HAVING SLOWED
SOME MORE...OPTED TO RAISE MAX T A COUPLE OF DEGREES...EVEN ACROSS
THE SOUTH...THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THE 12Z MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE TOO WARM...SO COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE 12Z MAV AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...LEANING BIT MORE TOWARD THE 12Z MAV CONSISTENT WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. AS FAR AS POPS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MOISTEN UP FROM THE TOP DOWN...AND WITH THAT IN MIND...ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EXTREME SOUTH LATE. CONTINUED WITH POPS ON SUN
NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THEN CONTINUED WITH
CHANCE INTO MON AND SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SE EARLY MON NIGHT WITH THE
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH TEMPS HOLDING BACK MON
HIGHS AND HOLDING UP MON NIGHT LOWS...AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS FOR DAYS
3-7...DECIDED TO LIVE AND DIE BY THE GFS SOLUTION AGAIN TODAY.
ADJUSTED THE POP...SKY...AND WEATHER GRIDS TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE
12Z GFS RUN. THE GFS IS 6-12 HOURS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF A LARGE OF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL RAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BRING A LARGE AREA OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ABOUT AN 8 HOUR OF PERIOD OF AT OR BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW...DECIDED TO LOWER HOURLY AND MIN
TEMPERATURES FOR THAT TIME FRAME AND TO INTRODUCE A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST. THE TWO VERY LIMITING
FACTORS FOR SNOW FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE CRITICAL -10 TO -20C ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE...AND A LESS THAN FAVORABLE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THEREFORE...NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD...GOING
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER FOR HIGHS AND LOWS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS REQUIRED ONLY
THE MOST MINOR OF ADJUSTMENTS. WINDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY PER
THE CHANGES MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

ASIDE FROM PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS BETWEEN 8Z TO 13Z
IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS 1A6...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED KEEP THE AREA CLEAR BELOW
12K FEET THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDER...AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES AND NORTH. AS FOR THE
TAF SITES...SME COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO THE UPPER END OF THE MVFR
RANGE WITH BR NEAR SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH SME AND LOZ WILL PROBABLY HAVE A
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHEAST
THROUGH 12Z...AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 212016
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE NE INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATE TONIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TOWARD
SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S OVER THE BLUEGRASS/SOUTHEAST INDIANA TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SITS TO OUR SOUTH OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AT THE SFC AND MOVE NORTH UP INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP
SOUTH OF OUR FA...THE 12Z GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP FIELD AND IT DOES BRING SOME UP INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE A 20% POP IN
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ALONG THE TN BORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF MORE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN FA...WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY TO UPPER 50S
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTH CENTRAL KY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA.  CUT OFF 500MB OVER THE MS DELTA REGION IS FCST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER STRONG H5 WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO THE PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING H5
WAVE...A SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE UP OUT OF THE GULF
AND TRACK NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  WITH THIS TRACK...SOME
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST.  OVERALL...THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA IS DRIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FCST.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE NORTH WITH MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.  HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY
IN THE FORM OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES WITH A LARGE 500 MB GYRE LEFT
SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.  HERE WE`LL BE
RUNNING THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS
INITIAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST...LARGE LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL
DROP DOWN OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
H5 CIRCULATION IN THE LAKES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL START OFF
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW-MID 50S.  MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. LOWS WED NIGHT LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

VERY LARGE H5 CUT OFF LOW IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  SFC LOW WILL LOOKS TO BE STACKED RIGHT
UNDERNEATH OF THE UPPER LOW WITH MUCH OF OUR REGION BEING LOCKED
INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATION.  LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
TO STAY IN THE REGION...SO THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOUDY
AND COOL WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE NORTH AND MID 40S DOWN SOUTH.  THE RAW MODEL DATA IS
COOLER...AND THE TREND IN THE DATA CONTINUES TO GO DOWN.  SO FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.  NORTHWEST
FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE THU NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.  SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED.  HIGHS
FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH TO
THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH.  AGAIN THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCE IS COOLER
AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD MAY BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND W VIRGINIA WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD PROVIDING FOR
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES NE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. BWG COULD SEE SOME LIGHT 6SM BR TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND A GOOD INVERSION ACCORDING TO
MODEL SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER 7KTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........AML

000
FXUS63 KPAH 211733 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1133 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009


.UPDATE...
FIRST PERIOD /REST OF TODAY/ FORECAST ADJUSTMENT AND 18Z SATURDAY
ROUTINE TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE REST OF TODAY WAS TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF
OPAQUE CLOUD COVER AND ALTER TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS
ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THE GREATER INSOLATION AVAILABLE FOR PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY AND
DEWPOINTS WERE KEPT THE SAME OR LOWERED SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL VARIANCE IN DIRECTION...KEPT AVERAGE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST...SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE...ADDED A PERIODIC
MENTION OF MVFR FOG TO KCGI IN THE 09-13Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME TO
ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHT VARIABILITY WIND WIND FLOW NEAR THE DIVERSION
CHANNEL NEXT TO THE OBSERVATION SITE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
TAF LOCATIONS WERE KEPT IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE OF CIRRUS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WITH TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SMITH

000
FXUS63 KLMK 211718
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1218 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS
UP IN THE BLUEGRASS AS THE LACK OF MORNING FOG HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...DECREASED
CLOUD COVER AS ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE FEW-SCT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS STAYING FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST.  TODAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER TEXAS
WHICH IS CAUSING HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
MAINLY THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IN PLACE AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FOG WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER CLOUDS COULD HELP MITIGATE HOW DENSE THE
FOG BECOMES HOWEVER THE CLOUDS ARE THIN SO THEY SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
PRECLUDE FOG FROM FORMING. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER RESIDES AND ANY LOW-LYING AREAS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS
COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40. SOME MID 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SHELTERED REGIONS IN THE
BLUEGRASS.

FOR TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND THE
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL HELP PUSH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN
GULF NEWD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER ALABAMA
BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS PRECIP FIELD STRETCHING DOWNSTREAM AS FAR
NORTH AS TENNESSEE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PAST FOUR MODEL RUNS
OF THE OPS NAM AND GFS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND
THUS ONSET OF PRECIP SO WILL REMOVE PRECIP FROM OUR SERN CWA FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND KEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SERN CWA.

CONCERNING TEMPS...WITH NE WINDS AT THE SFC AND POSSIBLY MORE CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...THINK TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND WENT CLOSER TO RAW GFS VALUES RATHER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE. UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER FROM ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - MONDAY)...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOWERED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
BUT LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
AREA AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOVES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MIGRATE TOWARD TO MIDWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL QUITE
DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BRINGING
THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER MODEL WITH A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY SO CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BUT PINPOINTING SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT. THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST AS IS WITH A WEDNESDAY BEING
DRY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. BY FRIDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL RETURN TO
DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES TAKE
A COLDER TURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THURS-FRI AND LOWS DIPPING
TO AROUND FREEZING. EXPECT SKIES TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO AND W VIRGINIA WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD PROVIDING FOR
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES NE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. BWG COULD SEE SOME LIGHT 6SM BR TOWARD SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND A GOOD INVERSION ACCORDING TO
MODEL SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER 7KTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........AML
SHORT TERM.....AL
LONG TERM......LMS
AVIATION.......AML

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211635 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST...WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND TO THE
WEST OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT
THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY/
APPALACHIAN REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALSO DECREASED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS PER WV IMAGERY AND THIS IS LEADING TO LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS ATTM...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS/KY
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. OUTSIDE OF SOME STRATUS/STRATOCU MOVING THROUGH
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY UNDERNEATH
THE CIRRUS FREE OR THIN CIRRUS.

WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER BASED ON THIS
RECENT TREND AS CIRRUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE OR THICKEN THAT
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO PRESENT. WITH SOME SPOTS A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THAN WHAT WAS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...THESE TWO SHOULD MORE OR LESS BALANCE EACH
OTHER OUT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES WERE MADE THERE AS FORECAST 875 MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS OF
ABOUT OR WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 60 WITH MIXING.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER
AIR PATTERN. WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PASSING
THROUGH TX WILL TAKE AIM AT EASTERN KENTUCKY...PASSING THROUGH AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO OUR WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF MORPHS INTO NOTHING MORE THAN
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO OPENING WAVE
TRAVERSING THE TN VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. FOR ISC GRIDS...LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEREAFTER MOVING CLOSER TO
A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

THESE LATEST TRENDS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND PRECIP. IN GENERAL HAD TO
TREND LOWER WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND DECREASE QPF TOTALS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS TO ELEMENTS TO COME INTO LINE WITH
LATEST THOUGHTS.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH RESPECTIVE SFC SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS QUICKLY
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT...JUST AS A MORE POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL BE OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK THAN THE GFS AND SWINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS
HAS TRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...WITH THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...OR ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. MADE
APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LATEST
TRENDS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL SCENARIO OF EVENTS IS LOW AT
BEST. MOST INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
BAND OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR AREA BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE ON THANKSGIVING. THE GFS COLUMN PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WARMER. ATTM PREFERRED THE WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THE WHITE STUFF OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

ASIDE FROM PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS BETWEEN 8Z TO 13Z
IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS 1A6...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED KEEP THE AREA CLEAR BELOW
12K FEET THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z NEAR THE TN AND VA BORDER...AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES AND NORTH. AS FOR THE
TAF SITES...SME COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO THE UPPER END OF THE MVFR
RANGE WITH BR NEAR SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH SME AND LOZ WILL PROBABLY HAVE A
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHEAST
THROUGH 12Z...AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/JP
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 211535
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1035 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

...FORECAST UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING.  ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS
UP IN THE BLUEGRASS AS THE LACK OF MORNING FOG HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  IN ADDITION...DECREASED
CLOUD COVER AS ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE FEW-SCT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS STAYING FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST.  TODAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER TEXAS
WHICH IS CAUSING HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
MAINLY THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IN PLACE AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FOG WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER CLOUDS COULD HELP MITIGATE HOW DENSE THE
FOG BECOMES HOWEVER THE CLOUDS ARE THIN SO THEY SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
PRECLUDE FOG FROM FORMING. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER RESIDES AND ANY LOW-LYING AREAS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS
COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40. SOME MID 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SHELTERED REGIONS IN THE
BLUEGRASS.

FOR TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND THE
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL HELP PUSH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN
GULF NEWD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER ALABAMA
BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS PRECIP FIELD STRETCHING DOWNSTREAM AS FAR
NORTH AS TENNESSEE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PAST FOUR MODEL RUNS
OF THE OPS NAM AND GFS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND
THUS ONSET OF PRECIP SO WILL REMOVE PRECIP FROM OUR SERN CWA FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND KEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SERN CWA.

CONCERNING TEMPS...WITH NE WINDS AT THE SFC AND POSSIBLY MORE CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...THINK TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND WENT CLOSER TO RAW GFS VALUES RATHER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE. UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER FROM ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOWERED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
BUT LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
AREA AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOVES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MIGRATE TOWARD TO MIDWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL QUITE
DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BRINGING
THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER MODEL WITH A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY SO CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BUT PINPOINTING SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT. THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST AS IS WITH A WEDNESDAY BEING
DRY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. BY FRIDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL RETURN TO
DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES TAKE
A COLDER TURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THURS-FRI AND LOWS DIPPING
TO AROUND FREEZING. EXPECT SKIES TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN MVFR VSBYS AT SDF/LEX DUE TO BR
AND IFR-LIFR VSBYS AT BWG DUE TO FOG...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR
AFTER 14-15Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL KEEP AN
LIFR TEMPO IN AT BWG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS...MAINLY AFFECTING BWG...BUT PERHAPS SDF AND LEX AS WELL.
NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW FEW CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART ALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE 20KFT OR HIGHER. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE ENE.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE GULF. AGAIN...ONLY CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTH...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........AML
SHORT TERM.....AL
LONG TERM......LMS
AVIATION.......AL

000
FXUS63 KPAH 211201
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
601 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYZED 00Z 500 MB CHART SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES...ONE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ANOTHER IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SEPARATE THESE EVEN FURTHER APART DURING THE
DAY TODAY...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MIGRATING TO THE
EAST...AND A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER EAST TEXAS...WHICH MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/RAINFALL WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH
FOR TODAY.

OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LOW IS NOT HANDLED VERY WELL BTWN THE GFS AND
NAM...WITH THE NAM SHOWING THE UPPER LOW POSITION ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF WHERE THE GFS PLACES IT. NONETHELESS...BOTH MODELS ARE
TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT...SO WILL TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MODELS REALLY DAMPEN OUT THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH
THIS WEAKENING TREND...BUT THE END RESULT WILL BE THAT SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
WHILE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST KENTUCKY...IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE VERY LIMITED. THE ECMWF
IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT EVEN HINTS AT SOME MINOR QPF IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES...AS IT NOW HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND NAM AS FAR AS THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM HAVE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTWARD PUSH TO THIS SYSTEM BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW...THUS
TOTALLY VOIDING OUR AREA OF PRECIP. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW NO
SIGN OF ANY RAIN FOR OUR REGION. WILL TRIM BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AND CONFINE IT TO JUST A SMALL PART OF WEST KY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT PULLS IT OUT ALTOGETHER.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EXITS IT ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.
THE NAM...WHICH IS EVEN WEAKER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE...IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND PAINTS QPF
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY...WHERE THE
QPF BULLSEYE IS DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF
WOULD TEND TO AGREE SOMEWHAT WITH THE NAM...WILL IGNORE THIS FOR
NOW DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE NAM SHOWS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND THINK THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE WITH
ITS QPF.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING SOME TIME ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A CLOSED
LOW PULLS EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN RADICALLY
DIFFERENT IN THE SPEED AND EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES IN
THE TUE-FRI TIMEFRAME...BUT SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A MORE COMMON
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z RUNS. WITH THIS TREND IN MIND...TRIMMED POPS
BACK TO THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES MON NT AND ADDED A SLGHT CHC TO
TUE NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES...EVERYTHING
SEEMS TO POINT TOWARD COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY `WRAPAROUND`
CLOUDS...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONSIDERED
ADDING A SLGT CHC TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL OPT TO JUST
INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE WED/THU PERIOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND DRYING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS IS NOW TAKING PLACE...WHICH IS SHUNTING MOST OF
THE CIRRUS OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SOME MVFR FOG HAS FORMED IN SOME
AREAS...BUT THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z/15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE INTO TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY...AND
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP LATE TONIGHT...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
SHOULD BE LESS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211200 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
700 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER
AIR PATTERN. WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PASSING
THROUGH TX WILL TAKE AIM AT EASTERN KENTUCKY...PASSING THROUGH AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO OUR WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF MORPHS INTO NOTHING MORE THAN
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO OPENING WAVE
TRAVERSING THE TN VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. FOR ISC GRIDS...LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEREAFTER MOVING CLOSER TO
A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

THESE LATEST TRENDS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND PRECIP. IN GENERAL HAD TO
TREND LOWER WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND DECREASE QPF TOTALS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS TO ELEMENTS TO COME INTO LINE WITH
LATEST THOUGHTS.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH RESPECTIVE SFC SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS QUICKLY
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT...JUST AS A MORE POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL BE OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK THAN THE GFS AND SWINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS
HAS TRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...WITH THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...OR ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. MADE
APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LATEST
TRENDS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL SCENARIO OF EVENTS IS LOW AT
BEST. MOST INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
BAND OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR AREA BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE ON THANKSGIVING. THE GFS COLUMN PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WARMER. ATTM PREFERRED THE WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THE WHITE STUFF OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

ASIDE FROM THE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AND
SME...AROUND DAWN THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA CLEAR BELOW
12K FEET. JUST A SCT TO BKN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT PICKING UP FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 211111
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER TEXAS
WHICH IS CAUSING HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
MAINLY THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IN PLACE AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FOG WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER CLOUDS COULD HELP MITIGATE HOW DENSE THE
FOG BECOMES HOWEVER THE CLOUDS ARE THIN SO THEY SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
PRECLUDE FOG FROM FORMING. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER RESIDES AND ANY LOW-LYING AREAS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS
COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40. SOME MID 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SHELTERED REGIONS IN THE
BLUEGRASS.

FOR TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND THE
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL HELP PUSH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN
GULF NEWD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER ALABAMA
BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS PRECIP FIELD STRETCHING DOWNSTREAM AS FAR
NORTH AS TENNESSEE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PAST FOUR MODEL RUNS
OF THE OPS NAM AND GFS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND
THUS ONSET OF PRECIP SO WILL REMOVE PRECIP FROM OUR SERN CWA FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND KEEP TODAY AND TONIGHT DRY. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SERN CWA.

CONCERNING TEMPS...WITH NE WINDS AT THE SFC AND POSSIBLY MORE CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...THINK TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND WENT CLOSER TO RAW GFS VALUES RATHER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE. UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER FROM ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOWERED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
BUT LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
AREA AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOVES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MIGRATE TOWARD TO MIDWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL QUITE
DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BRINGING
THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER MODEL WITH A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY SO CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BUT PINPOINTING SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT. THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST AS IS WITH A WEDNESDAY BEING
DRY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. BY FRIDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL RETURN TO
DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES TAKE
A COLDER TURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THURS-FRI AND LOWS DIPPING
TO AROUND FREEZING. EXPECT SKIES TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN MVFR VSBYS AT SDF/LEX DUE TO BR
AND IFR-LIFR VSBYS AT BWG DUE TO FOG...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR
AFTER 14-15Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL KEEP AN
LIFR TEMPO IN AT BWG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS...MAINLY AFFECTING BWG...BUT PERHAPS SDF AND LEX AS WELL.
NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW FEW CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART ALL CLOUD COVER WILL BE 20KFT OR HIGHER. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE ENE.

AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...FOG SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE GULF. AGAIN...ONLY CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTH...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AL
LONG TERM.........LMS
AVIATION..........AL

000
FXUS63 KPAH 210856
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYZED 00Z 500 MB CHART SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES...ONE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ANOTHER IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SEPARATE THESE EVEN FURTHER APART DURING THE
DAY TODAY...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MIGRATING TO THE
EAST...AND A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER EAST TEXAS...WHICH MOVES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/RAINFALL WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH
FOR TODAY.

OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS UPPER LOW IS NOT HANDLED VERY WELL BTWN THE GFS AND
NAM...WITH THE NAM SHOWING THE UPPER LOW POSITION ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF WHERE THE GFS PLACES IT. NONETHELESS...BOTH MODELS ARE
TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT...SO WILL TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MODELS REALLY DAMPEN OUT THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH
THIS WEAKENING TREND...BUT THE END RESULT WILL BE THAT SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
WHILE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST KENTUCKY...IT APPEARS CHANCES ARE VERY LIMITED. THE ECMWF
IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT EVEN HINTS AT SOME MINOR QPF IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES...AS IT NOW HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS AND NAM AS FAR AS THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM HAVE MORE OF AN NORTHEASTWARD PUSH TO THIS SYSTEM BEFORE
IT TOTALLY DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW...THUS
TOTALLY VOIDING OUR AREA OF PRECIP. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW NO
SIGN OF ANY RAIN FOR OUR REGION. WILL TRIM BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AND CONFINE IT TO JUST A SMALL PART OF WEST KY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DAY SHIFT PULLS IT OUT ALTOGETHER.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EXITS IT ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.
THE NAM...WHICH IS EVEN WEAKER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE...IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND PAINTS QPF
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY...WHERE THE
QPF BULLSEYE IS DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF
WOULD TEND TO AGREE SOMEWHAT WITH THE NAM...WILL IGNORE THIS FOR
NOW DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE NAM SHOWS THIS FEATURE WEAKENING
AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND THINK THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE WITH
ITS QPF.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING SOME TIME ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A CLOSED
LOW PULLS EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN RADICALLY
DIFFERENT IN THE SPEED AND EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES IN
THE TUE-FRI TIMEFRAME...BUT SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A MORE COMMON
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z RUNS. WITH THIS TREND IN MIND...TRIMMED POPS
BACK TO THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES MON NT AND ADDED A SLGHT CHC TO
TUE NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES...EVERYTHING
SEEMS TO POINT TOWARD COOLER AIR ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY `WRAPAROUND`
CLOUDS...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONSIDERED
ADDING A SLGT CHC TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL OPT TO JUST
INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE WED/THU PERIOD FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AREAS FROM THE OHIO RIVER
SE...TENDING TO PUSH FURTHER SE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOME SIGNS OF DEVELOPING FOG WITH PATCHY BR VIS DOWN TO
6-8SM. PARTIAL CLEARING ESPECIALLY AROUND KCGI/KEVV SHOULD ALLOW
SOME SPOTS TO DROP DOWN INTO IFR RANGE AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL TEND VERY
LIGHT JUST NORTH OF DUE EASTERLY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 210755
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER
AIR PATTERN. WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PASSING
THROUGH TX WILL TAKE AIM AT EASTERN KENTUCKY...PASSING THROUGH AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO OUR WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF MORPHS INTO NOTHING MORE THAN
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO OPENING WAVE
TRAVERSING THE TN VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. FOR ISC GRIDS...LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEREAFTER MOVING CLOSER TO
A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

THESE LATEST TRENDS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER...
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND PRECIP. IN GENERAL HAD TO
TREND LOWER WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND DECREASE QPF TOTALS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS TO ELEMENTS TO COME INTO LINE WITH
LATEST THOUGHTS.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH RESPECTIVE SFC SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS QUICKLY
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT...JUST AS A MORE POTENT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL BE OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK THAN THE GFS AND SWINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS. THE GFS
HAS TRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...WITH THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...OR ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. MADE
APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LATEST
TRENDS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL SCENARIO OF EVENTS IS LOW AT
BEST. MOST INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
BAND OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AFFECTING OUR AREA BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEMS DEPARTURE ON THANKSGIVING. THE GFS COLUMN PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WARMER. ATTM PREFERRED THE WARMER
ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THE WHITE STUFF OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT MVFR TO IFR FOG IN THE
DEEPER VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA CLEAR BELOW 12K FEET.
JUST A SCT TO BKN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
IFR FOG IN THE SME TAF WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF MVRF FOG EXPECTED...
COMPARED TO LOZ...WHILE JKL WILL NOT SEE ANY FOG. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 210737
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
237 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER TEXAS
WHICH IS CAUSING HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
MAINLY THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IN PLACE AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...FOG WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGHER CLOUDS COULD HELP MITIGATE HOW DENSE THE
FOG BECOMES HOWEVER THE CLOUDS ARE THIN SO THEY SHOULD NOT TOTALLY
PRECLUDE FOG FROM FORMING. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER RESIDES AND ANY LOW-LYING AREAS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS
COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG BY SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
SOME MID 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SHELTERED REGIONS IN THE
BLUEGRASS.

FOR TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
AND THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL HELP PUSH A SFC LOW OVER THE
WRN GULF NEWD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
ALABAMA BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH ITS PRECIP FIELD STRETCHING
DOWNSTREAM AS FAR NORTH AS TENNESSEE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PAST FOUR MODEL RUNS OF THE OPS NAM AND GFS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND THUS ONSET OF PRECIP SO WILL REMOVE
PRECIP FROM OUR SERN CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND KEEP TODAY AND
TONIGHT DRY.

CONCERNING TEMPS...WITH NE WINDS AT THE SFC AND POSSIBLY MORE CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...THINK TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND WENT CLOSER TO RAW GFS VALUES RATHER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE. UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S LOOKS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER FROM ADDED CLOUD COVER FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING.
LOWERED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
BUT LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
AREA AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOVES EASTWARD AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL QUITE
DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BRINGING
THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER MODEL WITH A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK...BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY SO CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BUT PINPOINTING SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DIFFICULT. THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FORECAST AS IS WITH WEDNESDAY BEING
DRY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION. BY FRIDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL
RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES TAKE
A COLDER TURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THURS-FRI AND LOWS DIPPING
TO AROUND FREEZING. EXPECT SKIES TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL AGAIN BE FOG FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING.
ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST LOWER LEVEL SO WE EXPECT FOG
FORMATION AFTER 08Z. SDF AND LEX SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE
WHILE BWG MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AL
LONG TERM.........LMS
AVIATION..........JA