000
FXUS61 KBOX 230510
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1210 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM EASTERN MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK INTO
NOVA SCOTIA BY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS HIGH PRES PUSHES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND
AT 04Z. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MAY WORK ASHORE
ACROSS THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL WORK N OVERNIGHT. NOTING SOME RADAR RETURNS ON THE NE MOSAIC
RADAR...BUT REMAINS WELL S OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND FOR NOW.

NOTED THAT TEMPS WERE MILDER WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD ALREADY REACHED...
WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS N CENTRAL MA/S NH WHERE SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH IN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES STARTED OFF CLEAR. NE WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...
ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST
ERROR. 22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THAT SOLUTION.

MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.

USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...
BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA.  MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.  BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST NOTED ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR.

MONDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...E-NE WINDS CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. NOTED
THE FERRY ON THE NANTUCKET SOUND CROSSING HAD GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH
SEAS UP TO 4 FT. BROUGHT THE SMALL CRAFTS UP FOR THE S SOUNDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY
OF GALES FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/EVT/NMB
MARINE...BELK/EVT/NMB

000
FXUS61 KALY 230147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
845 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WERE CALM OR NEARLY
SO...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPING AND IN MANY LOCATIONS WERE WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES
OF THE DEWPOINT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS PER LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG. GLENS FALLS
ALREADY DROPPED BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD SHORTLY AFTER 8PM ALTHOUGH
IT HAD IMPROVED TO MVFR. WE EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
TEMPORARY. LOWERED TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON MOST RECENT OBS.

THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING SHOWED A RATHER STRONG INVERSION JUST BELOW
THE 850 HPA LEVEL WITH A TEMPERATURE OF PLUS 1 AT 880 HPA AND
PLUS 6 AT 860. THERE WAS AN ABRUPT DRYING ABOVE THAT LEVEL AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS
MAY FORM IN THE INVERSION OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
VALLEY FOG. MORE GENERAL CLOUDINESS...WHICH COVERED SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.

ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.

WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.

IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVE
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY. WITH T/TD SPREADS LOW AT
KALB/KGFL...AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FORECASTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT IFR FOG AT KGFL AS
EARLY AS 03Z...AND DEF FROM 06Z UNTIL SUNRISE. KALB IS A BIT
TRICKIER...AS WOULD EXPECT MVFR FOG THERE AS EARLY AS 05Z...AND DEF
AFTER 07Z...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL.
IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS AT THAT POINT. MEANWHILE...KPOU EXPERIENCED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTN...SO T/TD SPREAD NOT QUITE AS LARGE THERE. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER NJ...SO WILL ONLY EXPECT MVFR FOG AT WORST THERE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE.

ON MONDAY...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE AT KPOU...WHERE LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARBY THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS THERE. THIS STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...WHICH COULD EVEN LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR THE MON AFTN
HOURS. KGFL SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO REMAIN VFR ALL DAY. IN
ADDITION...SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KPOU BY THE MID
AFTN...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS THERE AS
WELL.

WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...A LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WIND OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 5
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN, MAINLY KPOU.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 222341
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
641 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.

MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.

USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA.  MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.  BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS INITIALLY OVER BOS TO PVD AND SE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS NW MA/FAR SW NH...WHILE CONDITIONS LOWER TO
MVFR-IFR CIGS TO THE S AND E. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY RAIN
WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBYS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY OF
GALES FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB

000
FXUS61 KALY 222336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS BULK OF FA AND EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWS IN MOST AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF LAST
NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP TO
NEAR DEWPOINT AND HAVE THUS PLACED FOG IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.

ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.

WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.

IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVE
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY. WITH T/TD SPREADS LOW AT
KALB/KGFL...AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FORECASTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT IFR FOG AT KGFL AS
EARLY AS 03Z...AND DEF FROM 06Z UNTIL SUNRISE. KALB IS A BIT
TRICKIER...AS WOULD EXPECT MVFR FOG THERE AS EARLY AS 05Z...AND DEF
AFTER 07Z...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL.
IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS AT THAT POINT. MEANWHILE...KPOU EXPERIENCED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTN...SO T/TD SPREAD NOT QUITE AS LARGE THERE. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER NJ...SO WILL ONLY EXPECT MVFR FOG AT WORST THERE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE.

ON MONDAY...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE AT KPOU...WHERE LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARBY THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS THERE. THIS STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...WHICH COULD EVEN LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR THE MON AFTN
HOURS. KGFL SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO REMAIN VFR ALL DAY. IN
ADDITION...SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KPOU BY THE MID
AFTN...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS THERE AS
WELL.

WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...A LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WIND OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 5
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN, MAINLY KPOU.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 222145
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.

MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.

USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA.  MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.  BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD. AREAS MVFR CIGS EAST OF
THAT LINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLWM-KPVD-KMVY...DUE TO MARINE STRATUS
MOVING ONSHORE.

TONIGHT...BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN
AND FOG...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY OF
GALES FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB

000
FXUS61 KBOX 222125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.

MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.

USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. QUITE
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AS NAM INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2
PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FORECAST...ALSO KEEPING IN MIND GFS INDICATES A
SHORT WAVE. BUT LOW LEVEL LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA.  MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.  BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD. AREAS MVFR CIGS EAST OF
THAT LINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLWM-KPVD-KMVY...DUE TO MARINE STRATUS
MOVING ONSHORE.

TONIGHT...BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN
AND FOG...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY OF
GALES FRI.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB

000
FXUS61 KALY 222108
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS BULK OF FA AND EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWS IN MOST AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF LAST
NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP TO
NEAR DEWPOINT AND HAVE THUS PLACED FOG IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.

ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.

WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.

IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE
CLEARING LINE TRENDING TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED
BY 22-23Z AT KGFL AND KALB...BUT BECOME SCATTERED AT POU BY 19Z.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED...THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NO CEILING. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE BORDERLINE
IFR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL HAVE MORE DATA TO EVALUATE THE
FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED IN TAFS FOR
TONIGHT..STAY TUNED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST...AT
10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE...AND CLOUDS WILL
REFORM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. SO..BETWEEN
10-14Z...MVFR CEILING WILL DEVELOP AT POU...WHILE VFR CEILING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS KALB AND KGF TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221943
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
243 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN. COLDER
BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.

MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.

USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY...MODELS NOW ALL IN LINE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY
EVENING. 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERED OUTLIER WITH THE LOW TOO FAR OFF THE
COAST AND LITTLE RAINFALL OVER LAND. ECMWF TIMING AND PRECIP WAS THE
BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST. NEW 06Z GFS RUN NOW IS MORE IN LINE...EVEN
THOUGH ITS LOW IS STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS...IT NOW
HAS RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE CT/RI/MA BORDER BY MON EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTHWEST AND 90 PERCENT SOUTHEAST.

IN GENERAL...0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ESE FLOW AT 925 MB OVERRUNNING
LESSER NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE IS
ALONG EASTERN MA COAST. GFS SHOWS MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE OPEN WATERS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE THEY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHES 90-100 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDY FORECAST. REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN NW HALF OF AREA BECAUSE GFS SHOWED A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD BE LIGHT IF ANYTHING
DUE TO DRYING AIR ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 50 TO 55.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...
MORE OF THE SAME...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS...BUT IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THE CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST. 00Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO 973 MB OVER
NEW ENGLAND COMPLETE WITH LOTS OF THUNDER ETC. 06Z GFS CONTINUES THIS
FORECAST WITH 974 MB. THESE WERE CONSIDERED TOO DEEP AS ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 998 MB WHICH IS WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF 993
MB. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WOULD FALL. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE ADDED 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TO
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN GGEM MODEL
IS DRY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM
THAT A STORM WILL FORM...AND EVEN LOWER AS TO ITS PLACEMENT.

SATURDAY...BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...EXPECT RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE
SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD. AREAS MVFR CIGS EAST OF
THAT LINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLWM-KPVD-KMVY...DUE TO MARINE STRATUS
MOVING ONSHORE.

TONIGHT...BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN
AND FOG...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER BUT
MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET TO NOVA SCOTIA WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND
GOOD GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MARGINAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS MAINLY VERY LATE MON NIGHT OR ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY DIRECTION PERHAPS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATER THU.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF

000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...AND
CLOUD COVER EXTENDS FROM THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER WESTWARD
ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA. BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...AND
LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME SLIGHT EROSION SEEN IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND PERHAPS SLOWLY BUILDING WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN LIKELY FROM PSF TO AQW AND DDH...RIGHT ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE
REGION TOWARD AND THROUGH THE EVENING...SO ACKNOWLEDGING SOME
BETTER EROSION TO THE CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET. NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WAS EXPANDED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...

MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE
CLEARING LINE TRENDING TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED
BY 22-23Z AT KGFL AND KALB...BUT BECOME SCATTERED AT POU BY 19Z.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED...THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NO CEILING. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE BORDERLINE
OFR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL HAVE MORE DATA TO EVALUATE THE
FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED IN TAFS FOR
TONIGHT..STAY TUNED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST...AT
10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE...AND CLOUDS WILL
REFORM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. SO..BETWEEN
10-14Z...MVFR CEILING WILL DEVELOP AT POU...WHILE VFR CEILING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS KALB AND KGF TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221603
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1103 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO QUEBEC WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...THEN EAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN. COLDER
BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES ACROSS NY STATE INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
TODAY. THIS WILL INSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OCEAN AND MOVING SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE A CONTEST
BETWEEN THE MARINE LAYER INTRUDING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND THE LATE
NOVEMBER SUNSHINE. CURRENT THINKING IS CLOUDS WILL LINGER PRIMARILY
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST MA AND RI FOR TODAY.

CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLE...BUT DID MAKE A FEW
TWEAKS TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...SLOWLY INCREASING THE E-NE
WIND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW
LOW CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40...THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WIND...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK NE. MODELS TRY TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE N...FEEL THE DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD THE PRECIP OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...
AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NIGHTFALL OR AFTER ACROSS N MA/S NH. HAVE
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRECIP
WORKING UP THE COAST.

WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THE APPROACHING
PRECIP...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...
BUT THIS WILL STILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS NOW ALL IN LINE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
RGEM IS FASTEST OF 00Z MODELS RUNS WITH PRECIP IN RI AND CT BEFORE
7 PM MON. 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERED OUTLIER WITH THE LOW TOO FAR OFF
THE COAST AND LITTLE RAINFALL OVER LAND. ECMWF TIMING AND PRECIP WAS
THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST. NEW 06Z GFS RUN NOW IS MORE IN
LINE...EVEN THOUGH ITS LOW IS STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...IT NOW HAS RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE CT/RI/MA BORDER BY
MON EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTHWEST AND
90 PERCENT SOUTHEAST.

IN GENERAL...0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ESE FLOW AT 925 MB OVERRUNNING
LESSER NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE IS
ALONG EASTERN MA COAST. GFS SHOWS MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE OPEN WATERS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE THEY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHES 90-100 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDY FORECAST. REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN NW HALF OF AREA BECAUSE GFS SHOWED A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD BE LIGHT IF ANYTHING
DUE TO DRYING AIR ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 50 TO 55.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...
MORE OF THE SAME...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS...BUT IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THE CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST. 00Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO 973 MB OVER
NEW ENGLAND COMPLETE WITH LOTS OF THUNDER ETC. 06Z GFS CONTINUES THIS
FORECAST WITH 974 MB. THESE WERE CONSIDERED TOO DEEP AS ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 998 MB WHICH IS WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF 993
MB. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WOULD FALL. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE ADDED 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TO
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN GGEM MODEL
IS DRY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM
THAT A STORM WILL FORM...AND EVEN LOWER AS TO ITS PLACEMENT.

SATURDAY...BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...EXPECT RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE
SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KLWM-KPVD DUE TO AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE.

TONIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
ALONG THE COAST S AND E OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD...MAINLY NEAR OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE E-NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER BUT
MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASING WIND AND ONSHORE FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
MAINLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...AS LOW PRES WORKS UP THE COAST...WILL SEE E-NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...MAINLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MOST OF THE
WATERS...SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE S SOUNDS.

MONDAY...E-NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO NOVA SCOTIA WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND GOOD GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
WATERS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS MAINLY VERY LATE MON NIGHT OR ON TUESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY DIRECTION PERHAPS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATER THU.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...EVT/GAF

000
FXUS61 KALY 221543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...AND
CLOUD COVER EXTENDS FROM THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER WESTWARD
ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA. BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...AND
LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME SLIGHT EROSION SEEN IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND PERHAPS SLOWLY BUILDING WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN LIKELY FROM PSF TO AQW AND DDH...RIGHT ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE
REGION TOWARD AND THROUGH THE EVENING...SO ACKNOWLEDGING SOME
BETTER EROSION TO THE CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET. NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WAS EXPANDED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...

MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB. WE EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING/ERODING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BENEATH THIS DECK...ESP AT KGFL...PRIOR TO 15Z...AND HAVE
INDICATED A TEMPO AT KGFL DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD...UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER 08Z/MON. WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPOU...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME RANGE TO KEEP LOW MVFR AT KPOU.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 5-10 KT TODAY.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221231
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO QUEBEC WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...THEN EAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN. COLDER
BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES ACROSS NY STATE INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
TODAY. THIS WILL INSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF
THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MOVING IN ALONG THE
COAST. THE RGEM TENDS TO HANDLE CLOUDS WELL. THIS TREND HAS CONTINUED
ON THE 06Z RUNS...SEEN BEST ON 925 MB RH FIELDS.

HAVE UPDATED THE SKY COVER CONDITIONS TO INDICATE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND RI LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT.

AS LIGHT WINDS VEER AROUND TO N-NE...WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FORECASTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...WHICH CONTINUED TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...SLOWLY INCREASING THE E-NE
WIND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW
LOW CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40...THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WIND...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK NE. MODELS TRY TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE N...FEEL THE DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD THE PRECIP OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...
AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NIGHTFALL OR AFTER ACROSS N MA/S NH. HAVE
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRECIP
WORKING UP THE COAST.

WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THE APPROACHING
PRECIP...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...
BUT THIS WILL STILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS NOW ALL IN LINE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
RGEM IS FASTEST OF 00Z MODELS RUNS WITH PRECIP IN RI AND CT BEFORE
7 PM MON. 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERED OUTLIER WITH THE LOW TOO FAR OFF
THE COAST AND LITTLE RAINFALL OVER LAND. ECMWF TIMING AND PRECIP WAS
THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST. NEW 06Z GFS RUN NOW IS MORE IN
LINE...EVEN THOUGH ITS LOW IS STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...IT NOW HAS RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE CT/RI/MA BORDER BY
MON EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTHWEST AND
90 PERCENT SOUTHEAST.

IN GENERAL...0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ESE FLOW AT 925 MB OVERRUNNING
LESSER NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE IS
ALONG EASTERN MA COAST. GFS SHOWS MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE OPEN WATERS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE THEY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHES 90-100 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDY FORECAST. REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN NW HALF OF AREA BECAUSE GFS SHOWED A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD BE LIGHT IF ANYTHING
DUE TO DRYING AIR ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 50 TO 55.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...
MORE OF THE SAME... GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS... BUT IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THE CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST. 00Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO 973 MB OVER
NEW ENGLAND COMPLETE WITH LOTS OF THUNDER ETC. 06Z GFS CONTINUES THIS
FORECAST WITH 974 MB. THESE WERE CONSIDERED TOO DEEP AS ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 998 MB WHICH IS WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF 993
MB. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WOULD FALL. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE ADDED 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TO
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN GGEM MODEL
IS DRY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM
THAT A STORM WILL FORM...AND EVEN LOWER AS TO ITS PLACEMENT.

SATURDAY... BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...EXPECT RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE
SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
ALONG THE COAST S AND E OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD...MAINLY NEAR OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE E-NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS... RAIN AND
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER BUT
MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT AND FRI... LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASING WIND AND ONSHORE FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
MAINLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...AS LOW PRES WORKS UP THE COAST...WILL SEE E-NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...MAINLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MOST OF THE
WATERS...SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE S SOUNDS.

MONDAY...E-NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO NOVA SCOTIA WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND GOOD GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
WATERS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS MAINLY VERY LATE MON NIGHT OR ON TUESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY DIRECTION PERHAPS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATER THU.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT/GAF
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...EVT/GAF
MARINE...EVT/GAF

000
FXUS61 KALY 221128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB. WE EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING/ERODING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BENEATH THIS DECK...ESP AT KGFL...PRIOR TO 15Z...AND HAVE
INDICATED A TEMPO AT KGFL DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD...UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER 08Z/MON. WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPOU...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME RANGE TO KEEP LOW MVFR AT KPOU.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 5-10 KT TODAY.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
552 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO QUEBEC WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...THEN EAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN. COLDER
BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS A FEW OF THE NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEY AREAS. CAN ALSO SEE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM S
VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND ALL ACROSS NY STATE/PA ON THE SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT. ONCE THE SUN RISES...NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO
STICK AROUND TOO LONG...EVEN WITH LOW SUN ANGLE.

HIGH PRES ACROSS NY STATE INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
TODAY. THIS WILL INSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF
THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...HAS BEEN HINTING
AT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MOVING IN ALONG THE COAST. THE
RGEM TENDS TO HANDLE CLOUDS WELL. ALSO NOTED HIGH RH VALUES AND LOW
CLOUDS ON THE NAM BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. HAVE ADDED ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE MA...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW.

AS LIGHT WINDS VEER AROUND TO N-NE...WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FORECASTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...WHICH CONTINUED TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...SLOWLY INCREASING THE E-NE
WIND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. RGEM CONTINUES TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG INTO COASTAL AREAS...AND EVEN FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC...WILL ALSO START TO SEE
MOISTURE WORK UP THE COAST AS WELL. HAVE FORECASTED INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40...THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WIND...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK NE. MODELS TRY TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE N...FEEL THE DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD THE PRECIP OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...
AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NIGHTFALL OR AFTER ACROSS N MA/S NH. HAVE
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRECIP
WORKING UP THE COAST.

WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THE APPROACHING
PRECIP...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...
BUT THIS WILL STILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS NOW ALL IN LINE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
RGEM IS FASTEST OF 00Z MODELS RUNS WITH PRECIP IN RI AND CT BEFORE
7 PM MON. 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERED OUTLIER WITH THE LOW TOO FAR OFF
THE COAST AND LITTLE RAINFALL OVER LAND. ECMWF TIMING AND PRECIP WAS
THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST. NEW 06Z GFS RUN NOW IS MORE IN
LINE...EVEN THOUGH ITS LOW IS STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...IT NOW HAS RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE CT/RI/MA BORDER BY
MON EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTHWEST AND
90 PERCENT SOUTHEAST.

IN GENERAL...0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ESE FLOW AT 925 MB OVERRUNNING
LESSER NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE IS
ALONG EASTERN MA COAST. GFS SHOWS MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE OPEN WATERS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE THEY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHES 90-100 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDY FORECAST. REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN NW HALF OF AREA BECAUSE GFS SHOWED A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD BE LIGHT IF ANYTHING
DUE TO DRYING AIR ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 50 TO 55.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...
MORE OF THE SAME... GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS... BUT IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THE CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST. 00Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO 973 MB OVER
NEW ENGLAND COMPLETE WITH LOTS OF THUNDER ETC. 06Z GFS CONTINUES THIS
FORECAST WITH 974 MB. THESE WERE CONSIDERED TOO DEEP AS ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 998 MB WHICH IS WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF 993
MB. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WOULD FALL. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE ADDED 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TO
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN GGEM MODEL
IS DRY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM
THAT A STORM WILL FORM...AND EVEN LOWER AS TO ITS PLACEMENT.

SATURDAY... BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...EXPECT RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE
SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
ALONG THE COAST S AND E OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD...MAINLY NEAR OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE E-NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS... RAIN AND
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER BUT
MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

THU NIGHT AND FRI... LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASING WIND AND ONSHORE FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
MAINLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...AS LOW PRES WORKS UP THE COAST...WILL SEE E-NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...MAINLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MOST OF THE
WATERS...SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE S SOUNDS.

MONDAY...E-NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO NOVA SCOTIA WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND GOOD GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
WATERS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS MAINLY VERY LATE MON NIGHT OR ON TUESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY DIRECTION PERHAPS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATER THU.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...EVT/GAF
MARINE...EVT/GAF

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221013
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO QUEBEC WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...THEN EAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THREATENS THE REGION WITH MORE RAIN VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS A FEW OF THE NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEY AREAS. CAN ALSO SEE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM S
VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND ALL ACROSS NY STATE/PA ON THE SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT. ONCE THE SUN RISES...NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO
STICK AROUND TOO LONG...EVEN WITH LOW SUN ANGLE.

HIGH PRES ACROSS NY STATE INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
TODAY. THIS WILL INSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF
THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...HAS BEEN HINTING
AT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MOVING IN ALONG THE COAST. THE
RGEM TENDS TO HANDLE CLOUDS WELL. ALSO NOTED HIGH RH VALUES AND LOW
CLOUDS ON THE NAM BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. HAVE ADDED ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE MA...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW.

AS LIGHT WINDS VEER AROUND TO N-NE...WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FORECASTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...WHICH CONTINUED TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...SLOWLY INCREASING THE E-NE
WIND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. RGEM CONTINUES TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG INTO COASTAL AREAS...AND EVEN FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC...WILL ALSO START TO SEE
MOISTURE WORK UP THE COAST AS WELL. HAVE FORECASTED INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40...THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WIND...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK NE. MODELS TRY TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE N...FEEL THE DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD THE PRECIP OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...
AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NIGHTFALL OR AFTER ACROSS N MA/S NH. HAVE
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRECIP
WORKING UP THE COAST.

WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THE APPROACHING
PRECIP...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...
BUT THIS WILL STILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  THE MAIN DILEMMA IS HOW CLOSE TO
THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS AND ALSO ITS INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT EVEN
IF THE SOUTHERN AND WEAKEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN EFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.  THE GEM/NAM CERTAINLY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING MAINLY
RAIN/DRIZZLE.  THE ECMWF IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE VERY WET GEM/NAM
BUT IT DOES LEAN IN MORE OF THEIR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAN IN THE ECMWF/S DIRECTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS
TRACK RECORD IN THIS TIMEFRAME.  WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN FACT...LATER SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS INTO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE
REGION.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COOL
AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE
LOWER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.  CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WHAT
EVER FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER.  HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SPINNING OFF
THE COAST.   PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY.  HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKSGIVING DAY MAY TURN OUT DRY.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AGAIN...TIMING AND FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS
MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO WARM SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/PASSING RAIN SHOWER SO WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE.  ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG
DEAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
ALONG THE COAST S AND E OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD...MAINLY NEAR OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE E-NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...MAINLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASING WIND AND ONSHORE FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
MAINLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

TONIGHT...AS LOW PRES WORKS UP THE COAST...WILL SEE E-NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...MAINLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MOST OF THE
WATERS...SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE S SOUNDS.

MONDAY...E-NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD
GRADIENT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER
THIS TIME.  SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF MARGINAL GALE
AT SOME POINT.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 220825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9
IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220821
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PERIOD
STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN FM
MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH DOMINATES
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. TRICKY
CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER STRATUS
DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9 IR
SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220644
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN
FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH
DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER
THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220307
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. WILL BE MAKING SOME
MINOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA
OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...LAKES ONTARIO AND
ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 212352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
652 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THREATENS THE REGION
WITH MORE RAIN VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.  SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TEMPERATURES ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES EARLY
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT OVERNIGHT.  LOWS
SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH
EVEN SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA.  THE WARM SPOT SHOULD BE THE
URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON WITH LOWS AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S.

ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT
LEAST SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS AND ALSO ITS INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH
SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE SOUTHERN AND WEAKEST
SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN EFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.  THE GEM/NAM CERTAINLY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING MAINLY
RAIN/DRIZZLE.  THE ECMWF IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE VERY WET GEM/NAM
BUT IT DOES LEAN IN MORE OF THEIR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAN IN THE ECMWF/S DIRECTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS
TRACK RECORD IN THIS TIMEFRAME.  WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN FACT...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS INTO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE REGION.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COOL
AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE
LOWER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.  CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WHAT
EVER FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER.  HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SPINNING OFF
THE COAST.   PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY.  HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKSGIVING DAY MAY TURN OUT DRY.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AGAIN...TIMING AND FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO WARM SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/PASSING RAIN SHOWER SO WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE.  ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG
DEAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD AFFECT THE BAF/BDL TERMINALS
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...MAINLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED UPON THE BUILDING
SEAS...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD
GRADIENT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER THIS
TIME.  SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF MARGINAL GALE
AT SOME POINT.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 212027
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THREATENS THE REGION
WITH MORE RAIN VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
THE THICKEST CLOUDS NOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. FARTHER
WEST...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BANKED UP AGAINST THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT
LEAST SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS AND ALSO ITS INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH
SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE SOUTHERN AND WEAKEST
SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN EFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.  THE GEM/NAM CERTAINLY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING MAINLY
RAIN/DRIZZLE.  THE ECMWF IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE VERY WET GEM/NAM
BUT IT DOES LEAN IN MORE OF THEIR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAN IN THE ECMWF/S DIRECTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS
TRACK RECORD IN THIS TIMEFRAME.  WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN FACT...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS INTO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE REGION.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COOL
AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE
LOWER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.  CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WHAT
EVER FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER.  HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SPINNING OFF
THE COAST.   PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY.  HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKSGIVING DAY MAY TURN OUT DRY.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AGAIN...TIMING AND FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO WARM SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/PASSING RAIN SHOWER SO WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE.  ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG
DEAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...MAINLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED UPON THE BUILDING
SEAS...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD
GRADIENT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER THIS
TIME.  SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF MARGINAL GALE
AT SOME POINT.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KALY 211946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY
THANKSGIVING...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
THE THICKEST CLOUDS NOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. FARTHER
WEST...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BANKED UP AGAINST THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.

SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.

WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERABLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 211829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL AT
ALB AND GFL AS MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU...SO
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AT BEST. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AT 10 KT OR LESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN...AND BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...CLEARING WILL BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD BE AROUND 04Z AT GFL...AND 06Z AT KALB.
ONCE THE SKY SLEARS...AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY AROUND KGFL...THROUGH SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM...BUT IN SOME AREAS LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED-THU...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 211555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1055 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY THANKSGIVING BEFORE A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH
EXISTING FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THERE. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.

SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.

WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED AT 11 AM. WANT TO
GET ONE MORE ROUND OF BUOY REPORTS TO BE SURE. WINDS ARE NOT THE
CONCERN AT THIS POINT...BUT THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERABLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/RLG/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 211119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY THANKSGIVING BEFORE A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT 08Z...
FOR NOW. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA/NJ ON
THE IR SATELLITE LOOP...HEADING E IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY...THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TODAY...WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR.

WITH THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...UPWARDS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.

SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SHREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.

WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL REPORTING SWELLS AT 5-6 FT. ONLY KEPT
IT GOING FOR THE MORNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY VEER TO MORE NW-N LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERBLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/RLG/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 210908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z/SAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN 06Z/SAT TAF ISSUANCE.

SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/SUN AT KGFL DUE TO
GROUND FOG FORMATION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210850
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT 08Z...
FOR NOW. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA/NJ ON
THE IR SATELLITE LOOP...HEADING E IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY...THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TODAY...WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR.

WITH THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...UPWARDS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE.  THIS
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY
FORECAST.

MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST.  WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS
GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL.  GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON
NIGHT.  GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT.  NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT
DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE
POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT.

TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH
CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST.  WE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO
FRI.  BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST.

MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN.  VFR NORTH OF THE
PIKE.

TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL REPORTING SWELLS AT 5-6 FT. ONLY KEPT
IT GOING FOR THE MORNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY VEER TO MORE NW-N LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES BUT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE.  LOWERED
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/RLG