[top]
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212151
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
451 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HI PRES OVR THE ERN GRT LKS WILL SLIDE E TWD NRN NEW ENGLAND TNGT
INTO SUN MORNG. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS
MAINTAINING A MSTLY CLR OR PRTL CLDY SKY. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE ALL AREAS THE FIRST PART OF SUN...THEN
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM S TO N THE REMAINDER OF SUN INTO
SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL
BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES
TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.
RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.
CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).
NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.
&&
TIDES/CSTL FLOODING...TIDAL FLOODING NOT LOOKING TO BE MAJOR
CONCERN AS ASTRONOMICAL VALES ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT IF STRONGER
WINDS PREVAIL AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY. STILL...THIS IS NOT A REAL SLOW SYSTEM (LIKE LAST WEEK) SO
THE ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY ONLY BUILD TO 1-1.5 FEET.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MTG
NEAR TERM...MTG
SHORT TERM...MTG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/CSTL FLOODING...LKB
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212120
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HI PRES OVR THE ERN GRT LKS WILL SLIDE E TWD NRN NEW ENGLAND TNGT
INTO SUN MORNG. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS
MAINTAINING A MSTLY CLR OR PRTL CLDY SKY. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE ALL AREAS THE FIRST PART OF SUN...THEN
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM S TO N THE REMAINDER OF SUN INTO
SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL
BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES
TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.
RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.
CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212041
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
341 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
BRING SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES
BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE CLOUDS ERODING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL HYDROLAPSE /VERTICAL HUMIDITY
PROFILE/ SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT...SUBSEQUENT
NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO FOG PATCHES BY EARLY
MORNING.
DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS AND HENCE
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MILDER THAN NORMALS USING CLOSE TO
RECENT BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES ALONG WITH SREF MODEL
OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL SHOWERS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES CAN BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST...THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH WILL COME TO AN END.
EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EACH NIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEN FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE LOW
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE 3KFT MARK AT ALL TAF
SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY
SUNSET...WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BRING IN DRIER
AIR. MVFR CIGS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT FAVORED
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 212030
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER CANADA`S MARITIME
PROVINCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 3:00 PM, TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THERE WERE SOME READINGS IN THE 40S UP IN THE POCONOS. THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR THICK CIRRUS OVER PARTS OF THE DELMARVA
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE WAS ALSO A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS
POKING DOWN OVER THE POCONO REGION.
THE CIRRUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
COAST. MEANWHILE, SOME OF THE STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE POCONO REGION INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED UP IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH INFLUENCING OUR REGION, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR SUNDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
THE 12 UTC NAM AND THE 12 UTC GFS BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. THE 12 UTC NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW THAN THE 12 UTC GFS
AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF. WE WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME
BEING.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION
FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.
HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
BUT THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, AND PROVIDE A
MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST NEVER MADE IT TO OUR ARA, AND WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH AT THIS TIME EITHER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH, THEN
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. THE WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE GUSTY IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG TOWARD MORNING IN SOME ISOLATED
AREAS, BUT WE ONLY HAVE IT IN THE RDG TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LAST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF STATES. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, THEN BEGIN
SLACKING ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY. IN FACT, AN ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR BASICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION IN CASE THIS COMES TO FRUITION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD HELP
TO INCREASE TIDE LEVELS FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. TIDE
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MORE THAN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN ORDER FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CURRENTLY, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET IN TIDAL ANOMALIES, SO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING COULD INCREASE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION/MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
[top]
000
FXUS61 KLWX 211943
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SPLIT JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
IS MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TRACKS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER PA SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY HANG
ON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH
NOT TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.
A LOW-LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GDNC TRENDING MUCH SLOER...HOLDING OFF PCPN SUN NGT AS STRONG HIPRES
OVR NEW ENGLND RDGS DWN ATLC CST. EMPHASIS OF RAFL NOW MON-MON
NGT...AS A WK WV IN THE SRN STREAM SPILLS MSTR NWD...AND EVENTUALLY
SPAWNS CSTL LOW. WAA ON SRN DOORSTEP SUNSET SUN...AND CLDS WL
THICKEN/LWR THRU EVE. WL BRING POPS INTO GRIDS LT SUN EVE/SUN
OVNGT...SPCLY SRN CNTYS WHICH IS NEARER TRIGGERING MECHANISM.
BY MON-MON NGT...ENERGY WL TRANSFER OFF CST. PCPN WL BE IN RESPONSE
TO DVLPG LOW...MOSTLY IN DEFORMATION ZN. HV LINGERED A CHC INTO
TUE...SPCLY NRN CNTYS. HWVR...CAA SHUD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEEP
MSTR. BUT...FLOW WONT GO WLY...AND AS SUCH AM AFRAID WL HOLD ONTO A
PRTL MARINE DECK INTO MIDWK. PER XTNDD DSCN 2 PARAGRAPHS DWN...FCST
AT THIS PT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...AND GRIDDED DETAILS BECOME
BROADER IN SCOPE.
PER TEMPS...HV LMTD DIURNAL SWINGS IN RESPONSE TO CLDCVR NXT CPL
DAYS...GOING ON HIGH SIDE FOR MIN-T...AND LOW END FOR MAXT. DID
SHADE DWNWD MON NGT SINCE CWFA WL BE AFFECTED BY CAA BY THEN.
WE/VE ENTERED THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN SPLIT FLOW WRECKS HAVOC ON MDL
SOLNS. IT APPEARS WE/RE ENTERING SUCH A PD. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES
REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY DIGGING INTO TROF ACRS THE PLAINS...LKLY
CUTTING OFF AN UPR LOW...AND THEN TRAVERSING THE CONUS AS ADDTL
PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY DIVE INTO THE TROF AXIS. GFS AND GGEM DEEPER
AND QUICKER W/ H5 LOW...WHICH IS ALMOST CONTRADICTORY. WL TAKE A
HIGHLY ENSEMBLED APPROACH...LEANING ON STEADIER ECMWF. REGARDLESS...
WL HV AN UPR TROF IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD /PRBLY CNTRD OVR THE GRTLKS/
THIS THXGVG...WHICH MEANS THE XTNDD FCST WL START OUT WARM...THEN HV
A CFP COOL CWFA OFF. THERE ALSO WL BE THE SUPPORT FOR PCPN-- RA AT
1ST...BUT HGTS/TKNSS/H8 TEMPS WUD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNW...SPCLY
FOR THE MTNS BY THU NGT..WHICH MAY CONT INTO FRI ACRS WRN UPSLP
AREAS. POP FCST LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM...BUT WL CONT TO BE MONITORED
DUE TO POTL TRVL IMPACTS. THE WRN UPSLP ASPECT TO THE FCST THE MOST
SOLID.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY BR MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS SUNDAY WITH THE DIRECTIONS VEERING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.
VFR SUN EVE...AS CLDS THICKEN/LWR FM S-N. FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL
OVNGT AS RA SPREADS IN. RESTRICTIONS PREVALENT MON-MON NGT AS LOPRES
PASSES E OF TERMINALS.
SHUD BE A BREAK TUE-WED...THO MARINE LYR CUD POTENTIALLY HOLD ON.
THEN...ANTHR STORM SYSTEM MVS IN WED NGT-THU...FLLWD BY COLD AIR BY
END OF WK.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TOWARD THE NORTH
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WK WV OF LOPRES TRACKS ACRS SERN CONUS SUN NGT...AND
TRANSFERS/DEEPENS OFF DELMARVA MON-MON NGT. WNDS INCR DURING THIS
PD...W/ SCA CONDS PSBL.
IN WAKE OF THIS LOW AND IN ADVC OF NXT STORM SYSTM...N WNDS VEER
ELY. MORE PCPN WL SPREAD IN MIDWK...BUT SCA NOT XPCTD ATTM.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211754
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1254 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES CNTRD TO OUR N WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS AFTN...AS NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVES ALONG THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. N/NE WINDS OVR THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. HI CLDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACRS THE CWA...DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SYSTEM. SO...GENERALLY A PRTLY SNY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OFF FAIRLY LIGHT
AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF
MAIN SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.
IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211533
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES CNTRD TO OUR N WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS AFTN...AS NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVES ALONG THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. N/NE WINDS OVR THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. HI CLDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACRS THE CWA...DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SYSTEM. SO...GENERALLY A PRTLY SNY AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OFF FAIRLY LIGHT
AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF
MAIN SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD DESPITE WDSPRD CI OVRSPRDG RGN FROM
SW. LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND
CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 211505
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT 10:00 AM, HIGH CLOUDS COVERED OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CIRRUS
OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED TO THIN A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ENTIRE CLOUD SHIELD DRIFTS TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, SOME
STRATOCUMULUS MAY NUDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVER SOME OF
OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ALL
IN ALL, A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN OUR
REGION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY
A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY. SO, OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG
FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT
BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME
BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH
OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY. OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK
TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO
FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY); LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF)
DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS WELL. ONCE IT STARTS,
WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.
OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
000
FXUS61 KLWX 211450
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE UP COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY...THOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE JETSTREAM REMAINS SPLIT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
LOCATED OVER TEXAS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGH
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRATO CU DECK HAS
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE DRY SLOT WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS LOCATED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRATO CU DECK WILL HANG ON THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO...IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT 40S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS DECK IN THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT A
BIT BY THE EVENING...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...FLOW BECOMES NELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS IN THE REGION
DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL CLOUD
BANK ROLLS N-WARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WITH MORE SUN NRN
ZONES...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY COULD BE THE INVERSE OF NORMAL WITH WARMEST
/AROUND 60F/ LOCALES IN HARFORD/BALTIMORE AND COOLER /MID 50S/
NELSON/ALBEMARLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PUSHES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PUSHES EAST OF HATTERAS...BRINGING ELY FLOW/CAD TO THE AREA.
HAVING ALREADY MOISTENED...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. SHOULD BE QUITE CLOUDY WITH SOME
RAIN...EXPECT LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MINS MID 40S...MAXES MID 50S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
WEST TO BREAK CAD WITH SWLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /DID INCREASE
POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA DUE TO EXTENDED
CAD/. WARMING TREND TUE /UPPER 50S/ TO WED /AROUND 60F/ AHEAD OF
FROPA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THANKSGIVING...S/W LOBE/S/ FROM THE LOW TO BRING ONE
OR MORE COLD FRONTS PASSAGES IN MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND MOUNTAIN WINTRY PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS UNCERTAIN OF LOW INTENSITY AND
TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EARLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
IN NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FEEDING GREAT LAKE
MOISTURE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY/GREATER
DISCERNMENT. IF ANYTHING...COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BKN STRATO CU DECK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. THE
STRATO CU DECK WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING WITH PATCHY BR.
ONSHORE NELY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH MOISTENING/PRECIP BEGINNING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. QUANTITY OF PRECIP ASSOCD WITH FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH TIMING LATER
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY CERTAINLY PAY ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/NIGHT BRINGS ABOUT NELY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE
FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING SOME PRECIP AND
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LISTEMAA/LASORSA/BAJ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211132
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW
MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A
COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONCERN TODAY AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
AT KPIT...KBVI...AND KHLG WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AT
KDUJ AND KFKL LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH CIGS BREAKING AT
KMGW/KZZV THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTHWARD...CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
3-4KFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDUJ AND
KFKL THIS AFTN.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211130
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
630 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SOME VSBYS WILL FALL TO UNDER 2 MILES IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TDY AS
NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. WILL GENERALLY
CALL FOR P/C-P/S SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD DESPITE WDSPRD CI OVRSPRDG RGN FROM
SW. LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND
CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 211051
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
551 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE UP COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY...THOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUICK UPDATE FOR SKY COVER EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS DECK
AROUND 4 KFT HAS MADE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND BUMP UP THE SKY COVER BETWEEN THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA
AND THE MASON DIXON LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SET
UP ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION...AND BOTH INITIALIZED RATHER WELL. THE NAM DEVELOPS A CUT
OFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHEAR AXIS. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING PRECIP...JUST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.
250MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO HANG AROUND MOST OF
TODAY...AT TIMES BECOMING OPAQUE. HAVE OPTED TO GO PARTLY SUNNY FOR
TODAY...RATHER THAN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE NW CWFA
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK.
THICKER CIRRUS COULD LEND TO TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MAV MOS HAS BEEN PERFORMING RATHER WELL...HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS AND BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS DECK IN THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT A
BIT BY THE EVENING...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...FLOW BECOMES NELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS IN THE REGION
DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL CLOUD
BANK ROLLS N-WARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WITH MORE SUN NRN
ZONES...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY COULD BE THE INVERSE OF NORMAL WITH WARMEST
/AROUND 60F/ LOCALES IN HARFORD/BALTIMORE AND COOLER /MID 50S/
NELSON/ALBEMARLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PUSHES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PUSHES EAST OF HATTERAS...BRINGING ELY FLOW/CAD TO THE AREA.
HAVING ALREADY MOISTENED...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. SHOULD BE QUITE CLOUDY WITH SOME
RAIN...EXPECT LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MINS MID 40S...MAXES MID 50S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
WEST TO BREAK CAD WITH SWLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /DID INCREASE
POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA DUE TO EXTENDED
CAD/. WARMING TREND TUE /UPPER 50S/ TO WED /AROUND 60F/ AHEAD OF
FROPA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THANKSGIVING...S/W LOBE/S/ FROM THE LOW TO BRING ONE
OR MORE COLD FRONTS PASSAGES IN MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND MOUNTAIN WINTRY PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS UNCERTAIN OF LOW INTENSITY AND
TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EARLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
IN NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FEEDING GREAT LAKE
MOISTURE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY/GREATER
DISCERNMENT. IF ANYTHING...COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP
SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CIGS WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.
SOME LOWER STRATUS HAS SETTLED ACROSS KMRB...IN THE NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW...BUT CIGS ARE AROUND 4 KFT. EXPECT THE CIRRUS CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT TIMES BKN. THE LOWER STRATUS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE...BUT
CIGS BLO 3 KFT ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ONSHORE NELY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH MOISTENING/PRECIP BEGINNING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. QUANTITY OF PRECIP ASSOCD WITH FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH TIMING LATER
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY CERTAINLY PAY ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THOUGHT TONIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/NIGHT BRINGS ABOUT NELY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE
FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING SOME PRECIP AND
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LISTEMAA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210902 CCA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERALLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING TO OUR WEST, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
WANT TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST. WE`VE ACKNOWLEDGED THIS BY
CARRYING SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THAN
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES WAS CONSISTENT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS MIXING TO H925 AND WITH THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE MAV AND MET
STAT GUIDANCE, AND SO WE WENT THAT WAY. EXPECT A FAIRLY MODEST
NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROAHCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING
SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WAS FAILING
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY
FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS MORNING ON OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, AND SHOULD LESSEN
SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT
LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER,
THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER
SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND
CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY.
OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH
IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY);
LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF) DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS
WELL. ONCE IT STARTS, WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEK. OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210856
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SOME VSBYS WILL FALL TO UNDER 2 MILES IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TDY AS
NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. WILL GENERALLY
CALL FOR P/C-P/S SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.
PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD XCPT FOR SOME MVFR CNDTNS THRU 12Z
IN PTCHY FOG. WENT AHEAD WITH A BKN250 FCST VICE SKC AS SAT LOOP
ALRDY INDCTG PLNTY OF CI APPRCHG FROM SW.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING ACROSS NC CSTL WTRS...SO WILL END SCA WITH
AM PACKAGE. CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS
DOMINATES.
LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDES FCSTD MON AM WITH SCND HIGHEST TIDE TUE AM. CRNT FCST
HAS TIDES AT 1 FT OR LESS ABV NRML DRNG THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT THESE NMBRS NRML INCRS THE CLOSER WE GET TO
THE EVENT. WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TIDAL DEPARTURES APPRCH THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ERLY NXT WEEK IF CRNT TRACK HOLD TRUE.
STAY TUNED.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210854
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERALLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING TO OUR WEST, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
WANT TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST. WE`VE ACKNOWLEDGED THIS BY
CARRYING SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THAN
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES WAS CONSISTENT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS MIXING TO H925 AND WITH THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE MAV AND MET
STAT GUIDANCE, AND SO WE WENT THAT WAY. EXPECT A FAIRLY MODEST
NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROAHCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING
SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WAS FAILING
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY
FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS MORNING ON OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, AND SHOULD LESSEN
SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT
LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER,
THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER
SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND
CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY.
OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH
IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY);
LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF) DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS
WELL. ONCE IT STARTS, WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEK. OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 210842
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE UP COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY...THOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SET
UP ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION...AND BOTH INITIALIZED RATHER WELL. THE NAM DEVELOPS A CUT
OFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHEAR AXIS. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING PRECIP...JUST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.
250MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO HANG AROUND MOST OF
TODAY...AT TIMES BECOMING OPAQUE. HAVE OPTED TO GO PARTLY SUNNY FOR
TODAY...RATHER THAN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE NW CWFA
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK.
THICKER CIRRUS COULD LEND TO TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MAV MOS HAS BEEN PERFORMING RATHER WELL...HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS AND BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS DECK IN THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT A
BIT BY THE EVENING...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...FLOW BECOMES NELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS IN THE REGION
DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL CLOUD
BANK ROLLS N-WARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WITH MORE SUN NRN
ZONES...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY COULD BE THE INVERSE OF NORMAL WITH WARMEST
/AROUND 60F/ LOCALES IN HARFORD/BALTIMORE AND COOLER /MID 50S/
NELSON/ALBEMARLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PUSHES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PUSHES EAST OF HATTERAS...BRINGING ELY FLOW/CAD TO THE AREA.
HAVING ALREADY MOISTENED...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. SHOULD BE QUITE CLOUDY WITH SOME
RAIN...EXPECT LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MINS MID 40S...MAXES MID 50S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
WEST TO BREAK CAD WITH SWLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /DID INCREASE
POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA DUE TO EXTENDED
CAD/. WARMING TREND TUE /UPPER 50S/ TO WED /AROUND 60F/ AHEAD OF
FROPA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THANKSGIVING...S/W LOBE/S/ FROM THE LOW TO BRING ONE
OR MORE COLD FRONTS PASSAGES IN MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND MOUNTAIN WINTRY PRECIP.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS UNCERTAIN OF LOW INTENSITY AND
TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EARLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
IN NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FEEDING GREAT LAKE
MOISTURE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY/GREATER
DISCERNMENT. IF ANYTHING...COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP
SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CIGS WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.
SOME LOWER STRATUS HAS SETTLED ACROSS KMRB...IN THE NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW...BUT CIGS ARE AROUND 4 KFT. EXPECT THE CIRRUS CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT TIMES BKN. THE LOWER STRATUS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE...BUT
CIGS BLO 3 KFT ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ONSHORE NELY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH MOISTENING/PRECIP BEGINNING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. QUANTITY OF PRECIP ASSOCD WITH FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH TIMING LATER
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY CERTAINLY PAY ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THOUGHT TONIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/NIGHT BRINGS ABOUT NELY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE
FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING SOME PRECIP AND
COLDER AIR.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LISTEMAA/BAJ
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210723
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
223 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW
MAV GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A
COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS TAF SITES NORTH OF KPIT. WITH KZZV
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BREAKING
CIGS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KDUJ AND KFKL BY 17Z SAT.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210544
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS
TO COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR PERHAPS SOME
SUNNY BREAKS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT BASED ON CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. SREF MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM MOS AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10
DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
MODELS SHOW UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A COOLING TREND.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A COOLING TREND BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PRECIP TYPE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS TAF SITES NORTH OF KPIT. WITH KZZV
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BREAKING
CIGS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KDUJ AND KFKL BY 17Z SAT.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210512
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1212 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTS THIS EVENING IN ASSN WITH
MID/UPPER LVL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE GETTING SHOVED DOWNSTREAM...RIDING SW FLOW ALOFT
ALREADY PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AS
NOTED ON EARLY EVENING IR/RAMSDIS WV IMAGERY. WL LKLY SEE THESE
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE MAINLY
CLR CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
CIRRUS ACROSS THE WESTERN...AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL CWA
OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED TEMPS...AND STILL SHUD SEE
GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. ERY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO THE
NR 40...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME L30S WELL NORTH/NW OF RIC.
SATURDAY...
SHOULD SEE DECENT WARMING FOR SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE THICKEN CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN W/SW PARTS OF THE CWA. SEASONABLE HIGHS IN
THE L60S FOR MOST ZONES...UPR 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS GENERALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
STRONG OF A SYSTEM. THE NAM/CANADIAN SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
OVERRUNNING PCPN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
EVEN SLOWER...AND HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND BRINGING SOME LOW POPS IN LATE SUNDAY BUT FOCUSING POPS AND
QPF ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HESITANT TO BE TOO SLOW AS
OVERRUNNING IS OFTEN FASTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE MET ON SUNDAY FOR
HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DID LEAN A LITTLE MILDER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND LINGERING RAIN. THE MEX NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM ON MONDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE GFS SOLUTION...IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THEY
WOULD BE WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD AS GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING
RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...SO EVOLUTION OF
NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
IN THE FCST MON NIGHT AS NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH SFC HIGH OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AT LEAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLC/SE COAST (OUTLIER GFS SOLN GNLY DISREGARDED). FOR
TUE/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST (ECMWF) OR
WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC
FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER
WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD XCPT FOR SOME MVFR CNDTNS THRU 12Z
IN PTCHY FOG. WENT AHEAD WITH A BKN250 FCST VICE SKC AS SAT LOOP
ALRDY INDCTG PLNTY OF CI APPRCHG FROM SW.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
CONT SCA FOR NC CSTL WTRS FROM VA/NC BORDER TO CURR BCH LGT TIL 6
AM SAT AS NE WNDS KEEPS SEAS ARND 5 FT.
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NE...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRS APPRCHS FROM
THE S ON SUN. GFS SOLN LOOKS TOO FAST AND HAVE DISREGARDED THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IT DEPICTS ON MONDAY (KEEPING WINDS NE ON
MON/MON NGT PER NAM/UKMET/ECMWF CONSENSUS). THIS CONSENSUS SOLN
PLACES THE SFC HIGH IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCA CONDITIONS
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY (OVER NEW ENGLAND) AND HAVE GONE CLOSE
TO PREV FCST (HIGHER THAN THE MODELS FOR WIND SPEEDS). FOR
SEAS...GNLY WENT 5-6 FT FOR NOW ON THE COAST (GFS SOLN YIELDS A
WAVEWATCH FCST FOR ONLY 4-5 FT SOUTH AND 6-7 FT NORTH).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MPR
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210401
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1101 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS,
ALTHOUGH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE WARMER WATER WILL TEMPER
THIS SOME. LOW TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS
INTO THE 30S SEEM LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP WE
RAISED THEM A LITTLE. MIN TEMPS ALSO WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY AROUND
PHILADELPHIA AND SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 40 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DELISI/MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210231 AAB
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
931 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTS THIS EVENING IN ASSN WITH
MID/UPPER LVL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME CIRRUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE GETTING SHOVED DOWNSTREAM...RIDING SW FLOW ALOFT
ALREADY PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT...AS
NOTED ON EARLY EVENING IR/RAMSDIS WV IMAGERY. WL LKLY SEE THESE
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE MAINLY
CLR CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
CIRRUS ACROSS THE WESTERN...AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL CWA
OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED TEMPS...AND STILL SHUD SEE
GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. ERY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO THE
NR 40...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME L30S WELL NORTH/NW OF RIC.
SATURDAY...
SHOULD SEE DECENT WARMING FOR SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE THICKEN CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN W/SW PARTS OF THE CWA. SEASONABLE HIGHS IN
THE L60S FOR MOST ZONES...UPR 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS GENERALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
STRONG OF A SYSTEM. THE NAM/CANADIAN SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
OVERRUNNING PCPN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
EVEN SLOWER...AND HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND BRINGING SOME LOW POPS IN LATE SUNDAY BUT FOCUSING POPS AND
QPF ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HESITANT TO BE TOO SLOW AS
OVERRUNNING IS OFTEN FASTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE MET ON SUNDAY FOR
HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DID LEAN A LITTLE MILDER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND LINGERING RAIN. THE MEX NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM ON MONDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE GFS SOLUTION...IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THEY
WOULD BE WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD AS GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING
RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...SO EVOLUTION OF
NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
IN THE FCST MON NIGHT AS NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH SFC HIGH OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AT LEAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLC/SE COAST (OUTLIER GFS SOLN GNLY DISREGARDED). FOR
TUE/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST (ECMWF) OR
WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC
FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER
WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GENERALLY COVER THE TAF SITES. WNDS WILL BE
MOSTLY N-NE AND LIGHT. SOME SHALLOW GRND FOG PSBL ACROSS THE
REGION BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. VFR CONDS THRU SAT.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ONLY REMAINS UP FOR ONE ZONE ON THE CSTL WTRS FROM VA/NC
BORDER TO CURR BCH LGT TIL 6 AM SAT. WNDS WILL BE GENLY N-NE
OVERNIGHT 10-15 KT THRU SAT.
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NE...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRS APPRCHS FROM
THE S ON SUN. GFS SOLN LOOKS TOO FAST AND HAVE DISREGARDED THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IT DEPICTS ON MONDAY (KEEPING WINDS NE ON
MON/MON NGT PER NAM/UKMET/ECMWF CONSENSUS). THIS CONSENSUS SOLN
PLACES THE SFC HIGH IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCA CONDITIONS
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY (OVER NEW ENGLAND) AND HAVE GONE CLOSE
TO PREV FCST (HIGHER THAN THE MODELS FOR WIND SPEEDS). FOR
SEAS...GNLY WENT 5-6 FT FOR NOW ON THE COAST (GFS SOLN YIELDS A
WAVEWATCH FCST FOR ONLY 4-5 FT SOUTH AND 6-7 FT NORTH). IN ANY
EVENT...LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED...WITH SEBV2
DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE DROPPING BELOW ACTION STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK...NO FLOOD CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
OBSERVED (OR FORECAST) OVER THE AKQ HSA.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
HYDROLOGY...MAM/JEF
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210217
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
917 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ARE TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST
AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE LOTS OF
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKY FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING TOMORROW. WITH GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S. THE MAV VALUES LOOKED REASONABLE. ON SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE DECENT WARMING SO HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE THICKEN CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN SW PARTS OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS GENERALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
STRONG OF A SYSTEM. THE NAM/CANADIAN SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
OVERRUNNING PCPN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
EVEN SLOWER...AND HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND BRINGING SOME LOW POPS IN LATE SUNDAY BUT FOCUSING POPS AND
QPF ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HESITANT TO BE TOO SLOW AS
OVERRUNNING IS OFTEN FASTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE MET ON SUNDAY FOR
HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DID LEAN A LITTLE MILDER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND LINGERING RAIN. THE MEX NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM ON MONDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE GFS SOLUTION...IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THEY
WOULD BE WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD AS GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING
RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...SO EVOLUTION OF
NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
IN THE FCST MON NIGHT AS NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH SFC HIGH OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AT LEAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLC/SE COAST (OUTLIER GFS SOLN GNLY DISREGARDED). FOR
TUE/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST (ECMWF) OR
WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC
FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER
WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GENERALLY COVER THE TAF SITES. WNDS WILL BE
MOSTLY N-NE AND LIGHT. SOME SHALLOW GRND FOG PSBL ACROSS THE
REGION BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. VFR CONDS THRU SAT.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ONLY REMAINS UP FOR ONE ZONE ON THE CSTL WTRS FROM VA/NC
BORDER TO CURR BCH LGT TIL 6 AM SAT. WNDS WILL BE GENLY N-NE
OVERNIGHT 10-15 KT THRU SAT.
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NE...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRS APPRCHS FROM
THE S ON SUN. GFS SOLN LOOKS TOO FAST AND HAVE DISREGARDED THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IT DEPICTS ON MONDAY (KEEPING WINDS NE ON
MON/MON NGT PER NAM/UKMET/ECMWF CONSENSUS). THIS CONSENSUS SOLN
PLACES THE SFC HIGH IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCA CONDITIONS
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY (OVER NEW ENGLAND) AND HAVE GONE CLOSE
TO PREV FCST (HIGHER THAN THE MODELS FOR WIND SPEEDS). FOR
SEAS...GNLY WENT 5-6 FT FOR NOW ON THE COAST (GFS SOLN YIELDS A
WAVEWATCH FCST FOR ONLY 4-5 FT SOUTH AND 6-7 FT NORTH). IN ANY
EVENT...LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR SEBRELL HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND FLOOD
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE AKQ CWA.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB/JEF
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 210213 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A RESIDUAL UPPER WAVE REMAINS BACK TO THE NW...SLIDING DOWN THRU
THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT W/ LITTLE-NO PRECIP BUT A LARGE MASS OF
LOW CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE SHORES OF LAKE ERIE DOWN INTO THE
CNTRL APLCNS. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE ONLY WX ACTIVITY FOR THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THIS CLOUD
BANK WILL BREAK-UP AND SLIDE DOWN ACROSS THE NRN SHENANDOAH VLY
AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WINDS DECREASING
AND AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF NWLY WINDS THIS AFTN...CONDITIONS ARE
RELATIVELY DRY...SO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED
/OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED VLYS AND OTHER TYPICAL FOG-PRONE AREAS
TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN HRS/. THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLIDE DOWN INTO M/U30S /L40S IN THE METRO AREAS AND
CLOSER TO THE BAY/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SCATTERED CU DECK DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LRG HIPRES HANGING OUT ACRS THE NE/GRTLKS RGN SAT NGT-SUN. DIFF THIS
CYCLE IS THE COMBO OF SFC HIGH AND H5 RDGG...MAKING IT HARDER TO
DISLODGE. THRFR..GDNC THIS CYCLE SLOER THAN PRVS CYCLES. GFS SEEMS
TO BE QUICKER...BUT IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE AFFECTED BY GRIDSCALE
FEEDBACK...OWING TO S/WV PHASING. GGEM/NAM IN CONCERT...SUGGESTING
PCPN WL BE CENTERED ON SUN NGT-MON. A WK LOW WL THEN EMERGE OFF MID
ATLC CST MON NGT. WL MAKE APPRO CHGS TO GRIDS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT THERE/S NO COLD AIR ARND. AFTR MAKING APPRO MOS TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS /NEGLECTING THE COOLER MAXT OF WET GFS AND SIDING WARMER
SUN NGT AS CLDS ADVECT NWD/...MAXT WL BE NEAR NRML BUT MIN-T WARMER
THAN NRML.
SHUD GET A RESPITE TUE BEFORE ANTHR STORM AFFECTS CWFA IN THE
WED-THU TIMEFRAME. WL NEED TO MONITOR DUE TO TRAVEL IMPACTS. ATTM...
THE WARM TREND CONTS AS A CUTOFF H5 LOW DVLPS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SCATTERED STRATUS DECK /3-4 KFT/ WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT IN FROM
THE NW /BUT ONLY IN SMALLER PORTIONS FROM ITS LARGER MASS - BACK
ACROSS OH/WRN PA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DRIFTING
THRU AND DISSIPATING BY LATER IN THE EVNG. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10 KNOTS THRU THIS TIME.
VFR THRU SUN. FLGT RESTRICTION DUE TO LOPRES SUN NGT-MON NGT.
&&
.MARINE...
NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT W/ A MINIMAL PRES GRADIENT...SO NO WX CONCERNS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU THE WKND. LOPRES AFFECTING WATERS MON. WNDS MAY
PICK UP IN ADVC OF LOW...W/ A ENELY FETCH.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/HTS
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210050
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
750 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. LOW
TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS INTO THE 30S
SEEM LIKELY TO OCCUR. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY AROUND
PHILADELPHIA AND SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 40 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210045 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS TO
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR
PERHAPS SOME SUNNY BREAKS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT BASED ON CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. SREF MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM MOS AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10
DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
MODELS SHOW UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A COOLING TREND.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A COOLING TREND BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PRECIP TYPE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOW END VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY LATE...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT/HLG NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
FINALLY SCATTERING OUT LATE SAT AFTN...WITH SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202155
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
455 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ARE TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST
AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE LOTS OF
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKY FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING TOMORROW. WITH GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S. THE MAV VALUES LOOKED REASONABLE. ON SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE DECENT WARMING SO HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE THICKEN CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN SW PARTS OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS GENERALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
STRONG OF A SYSTEM. THE NAM/CANADIAN SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
OVERRUNNING PCPN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
EVEN SLOWER...AND HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND BRINGING SOME LOW POPS IN LATE SUNDAY BUT FOCUSING POPS AND
QPF ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HESITANT TO BE TOO SLOW AS
OVERRUNNING IS OFTEN FASTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE MET ON SUNDAY FOR
HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DID LEAN A LITTLE MILDER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND LINGERING RAIN. THE MEX NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM ON MONDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE GFS SOLUTION...IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THEY
WOULD BE WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THIS PERIOD AS GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING
RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM...SO EVOLUTION OF
NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK VERY UNCERTAIN. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
IN THE FCST MON NIGHT AS NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH SFC HIGH OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND AT LEAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
MID ATLC/SE COAST (OUTLIER GFS SOLN GNLY DISREGARDED). FOR
TUE/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST (ECMWF) OR
WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC
FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER
WX FOR FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS OVER ERN NC AND A SMALL PORTION OF SCTRL VA
WAS MOVING S AND DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
TAF SITES. NORTHERLY WINDS BECAME GUSTY OVER COASTAL AREAS. THESE
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN. NO ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES TNGT OR SAT.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NRLY SURGE DIMINISHING...BUT STILL SEEING GUSTS TO ARND 20 KT FOR
SRN BAY/CURRITUCK AND SRN CSTL WATERS...SO WILL CARRY SCA FLAGS
THROUGH 7 AM FOR THE SRN BAY/SOUND...AND TO 10 PM ON THE COAST
(MAINLY FOR SEAS). FOR NC CSTL WATERS...LATEST WAVEWATCH AND
CURRENT OBS SUGGEST SEAS STAY ARND 5 FT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SO
EXTENDED THE FLAGS THERE.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRS BLDS OVR THE NORTHERN WTRS SAT...WINDS WILL
GNLY BE 10-15 KT OR LESS THROUGH ERLY SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES NE AND
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
NE...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRS APPRCHS FROM THE S. GFS SOLN LOOKS TOO
FAST AND HAVE DISREGARDED THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IT DEPICTS ON
MONDAY (KEEPING WINDS NE ON MON/MON NGT PER NAM/UKMET/ECMWF
CONSENSUS). THIS CONSENSUS SOLN PLACES THE SFC HIGH IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(OVER NEW ENGLAND) AND HAVE GONE CLOSE TO PREV FCST (HIGHER THAN
THE MODELS FOR WIND SPEEDS). FOR SEAS...GNLY WENT 5-6 FT FOR NOW
ON THE COAST (GFS SOLN YIELDS A WAVEWATCH FCST FOR ONLY 4-5 FT
SOUTH AND 6-7 FT NORTH). IN ANY EVENT...LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST
FLAGS FOR LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDRO...SEBRELL WRNG CONTINUES THRU 6PM (SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-
656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
633.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
HYDROLOGY...LSA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202142
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
442 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE COMING FROM KENTUCKY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS TO
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COULD PERSIST INTO DAYTIME SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR
PERHAPS SOME SUNNY BREAKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO 4-7 DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL BASED ON
RECENT BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. SREF MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM MOS AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10
DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
MODELS SHOW UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A COOLING TREND.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A COOLING TREND BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PRECIP TYPE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING SOUTH OF
KPIT. LOW END VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT/HLG NORTH.
WEST WINDS 8-12 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 29 KT LATE THIS AFTN WILL
DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CLOUDS FINALLY SCATTERING OUT SAT AFTN...WITH
SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 202015
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANY CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TOO.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO THE FCST
LOWS IN THE 30S LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KLWX 202000
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A FEW HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SCATTERED CU DECK DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LRG HIPRES HANGING OUT ACRS THE NE/GRTLKS RGN SAT NGT-SUN. DIFF THIS
CYCLE IS THE COMBO OF SFC HIGH AND H5 RDGG...MAKING IT HARDER TO
DISLODGE. THRFR..GDNC THIS CYCLE SLOER THAN PRVS CYCLES. GFS SEEMS
TO BE QUICKER...BUT IT ALSO SEEMS TO BE AFFECTED BY GRIDSCALE
FEEDBACK...OWING TO S/WV PHASING. GGEM/NAM IN CONCERT...SUGGESTING
PCPN WL BE CENTERED ON SUN NGT-MON. A WK LOW WL THEN EMERGE OFF MID
ATLC CST MON NGT. WL MAKE APPRO CHGS TO GRIDS. ONE THING OF NOTE IS
THAT THERE/S NO COLD AIR ARND. AFTR MAKING APPRO MOS TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS /NEGLECTING THE COOLER MAXT OF WET GFS AND SIDING WARMER
SUN NGT AS CLDS ADVECT NWD/...MAXT WL BE NEAR NRML BUT MIN-T WARMER
THAN NRML.
SHUD GET A RESPITE TUE BEFORE ANTHR STORM AFFECTS CWFA IN THE
WED-THU TIMEFRAME. WL NEED TO MONITOR DUE TO TRAVEL IMPACTS. ATTM...
THE WARM TREND CONTS AS A CUTOFF H5 LOW DVLPS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SCATTERED CU DECK AROUND 3KFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS.
VFR THRU SUN. FLGT RESTRICTION DUE TO LOPRES SUN NGT-MON NGT.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE LOWER BAY A TONIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY BRINGING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS.
NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU THE WKND. LOPRES AFFECTING WATERS MON. WNDS MAY
PICK UP IN ADVC OF LOW...W/ A ENELY FETCH.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201959
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
259 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ARE TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST
AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NE ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE LOTS OF
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKY FOR TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING TOMORROW. WITH GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S. THE MAV VALUES LOOKED REASONABLE. ON SATURDAY
SHOULD SEE DECENT WARMING SO HAVE GONE WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE THICKEN CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY IN SW PARTS OF THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ACTIVE PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE
NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG AND TOO
FAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND IS GENERALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS
STRONG OF A SYSTEM. THE NAM/CANADIAN SEEM TO BE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WITH THE CLOUDS INCREASING ON SUNDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
OVERRUNNING PCPN ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
EVEN SLOWER...AND HAS TRENDED SLOWER FROM THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND BRINGING SOME LOW POPS IN LATE SUNDAY BUT FOCUSING POPS AND
QPF ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HESITANT TO BE TOO SLOW AS
OVERRUNNING IS OFTEN FASTER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE MET ON SUNDAY FOR
HIGHS...BUT NOT AS WARM GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT DID LEAN A LITTLE MILDER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND LINGERING RAIN. THE MEX NUMBERS LOOK TOO WARM ON MONDAY...BUT
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE GFS SOLUTION...IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THEY
WOULD BE WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EURO AND GEM ARE NOW THE MOST CONSISTENT MDLS...AS THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE SE COAST THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THUS CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT. IF SLWR SOLN PRESENTS ITSELF COULD SEE CHCS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE INTO ERLY TUE (ESP FAR NE).
ANOTHER UPR LOW DIGS ACROSS THE US EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. HV INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC SHOWRS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ATTM. TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED ARND SEASONABLY NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS OVER ERN NC AND A SMALL PORTION OF SCTRL VA
WAS MOVING S AND DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
TAF SITES. NORTHERLY WINDS BECAME GUSTY OVER COASTAL AREAS. THESE
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN. NO ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES TNGT OR SAT.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NRLY SURGE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN. WNDS AOB 15 KTS XPCD
TONITE. 4-5 FT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY...XCPT ACROSS NC
CSTL WTRS WHERE SOME 5 FOOTERS CONT TONITE.
HIGH PRS BLDS OVR THE WTRS SAT AND SAT NITE. FLOW BECOMES NE BY SUN
AHEAD OF LOW PRS APPRCHG FROM THE S. WNDS/SEAS INCRS TO SCA LVLS BY
SUN NITE INTO MON. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING AT SEBRELL QUICKLY FALLING AND SHUD FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY. SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SMF/CCW
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201749
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1249 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THANKSGIVING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVES OFF THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
COASTAL ZONES...THE CLOUDS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND ERN NC AND IN THE COASTAL ZONES.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PUSH OFF THE COAST THE REST OF THE
MORNING. THE CLOUDS...AND THE CLEARING LINGE...HOWEVER...SEEM TO
CORRELATE BETTER WITH THE 850 MB FRONT. THE SATELLITE SEEMS TO
SHOW THIS AS WELL AS THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL MAINLY
SW. BUT ONCE THE 850 MB FRONT MOVES ACROSS...THE FLOW TURN WNW AND
DRIES OUT. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS THE 850 FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST BY
00Z SO THE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST WILL BE LATER TODAY OR EARLY
TONIGHT. SO HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS AND DELAY THE CLEARING. THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN VA AND NERN NC SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK UP WITH THE MIXING OF THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL NOSE FURTHER INTO THE RGN TONIGHT
LEADING TO CLR SKIES. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S SE.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION ON SAT
AS NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. GNRLY CALLING FOR SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT
AND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES LOOK FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLN IN TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM AS SOLN
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST RUNS. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN AND
THUS HAVE SLOWED PRECIP CHCS TILL DAYTIME SUN. PRECIP WILL START OF
FAIRLY LIGHT AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EURO AND GEM ARE NOW THE MOST CONSISTENT MDLS...AS THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE SE COAST THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THUS CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT. IF SLWR SOLN PRESENTS ITSELF COULD SEE CHCS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE INTO ERLY TUE (ESP FAR NE).
ANOTHER UPR LOW DIGS ACROSS THE US EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. HV INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC SHOWRS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ATTM. TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED ARND SEASONABLY NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BAND OF MVFR CIGS OVER ERN NC AND A SMALL PORTION OF SCTRL VA
WAS MOVING S AND DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES COVER THE
TAF SITES. NORTHERLY WINDS BECAME GUSTY OVER COASTAL AREAS. THESE
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTN. NO ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES TNGT OR SAT.
LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
NRLY SURGE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN. WNDS AOB 15 KTS XPCD
TONITE. 4-5 FT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY...XCPT ACROSS NC
CSTL WTRS WHERE SOME 5 FOOTERS CONT TONITE.
HIGH PRS BLDS OVR THE WTRS SAT AND SAT NITE. FLOW BECOMES NE BY SUN
AHEAD OF LOW PRS APPRCHG FROM THE S. WNDS/SEAS INCRS TO SCA LVLS BY
SUN NITE INTO MON. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING AT SEBRELL QUICKLY FALLING AND SHUD FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY. SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...SMF/CCW
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201712
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1212 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOW
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE FRONT HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND RAPID CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
IN ITS WAKE. PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE JUST UNDER 5 FT AT BUOY 009 AROUND NOON. HOWEVER, WINDS
WERE STILL GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER 25
KT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM FOR BOTH THE OCEAN AND THE
BAY. AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
LATER TODAY AND WE WILL REEVALUATE THE SCA AS TIME GOES ON.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE
COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER/
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201615
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1115 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE COMING FROM KENTUCKY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS TO THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH RECENT RUC MODEL OUTPUT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE
LOWLEVEL COLD POOL EXITING EASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...EXPECT RELATED SURFACE LAYER INSTABILITY INDUCED CLOUDS
TO ERODE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES
WHICH KEEP TEMPERATURES 3-6 DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY AND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS
AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10 DEG F
WARMER THAN NORMAL. AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. COULD HAVE A RELATIVE BREAK FROM RAIN
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TNGT. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES TO
THE NORTH. LOW END VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTN...WITH AREAS OF MVFR ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING SCATTERED BY SATURDAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KLWX 201439
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETREATS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW...MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIPRES DRIFTS CLOSER TNGT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS.
EVEN WITH AMPLE RADIATION COOLING...XPCT TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...30S FOR MINIMA...XCPT 40S NEAR URBAN CENTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
THEN RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE GULF STATES.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
BACK ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WELL AHEAD OF GULF LOW PRESSURE...AND
THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN THAT BREAKS OUT LATE IN THE DAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THERE
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THERE ARE ALSO TRACK DIFFERENCES REGARDING
EXACTLY HOW NEAR THE COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL BE...BUT MODELS
GENERALLY CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN A
POSITION TO LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE CWA. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME FOR LIKELY POPS...AND
MORE TIMING DETAIL AND QPF DETAIL CAN BE ADDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
LOW PRESSURE EXITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE/FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE RENEW CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THURSDAY...ENHANCING UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AIR SPACE ON SATURDAY...THEN
RETREATS ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
12Z KIAD SOUNDING SHOWS WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS JUST A COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET FROM THE SURFACE. STILL FEEL THAT SOME OF THESE WINDS
MAY MIX DOWN ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH AN SCA UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME...ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...SBK/BJL/BPP
MARINE...SBK/BJL/BPP
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201436
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
936 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THANKSGIVING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVES OFF THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
COASTAL ZONES...THE CLOUDS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND ERN NC AND IN THE COASTAL ZONES.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PUSH OFF THE COAST THE REST OF THE
MORNING. THE CLOUDS...AND THE CLEARING LINGE...HOWEVER...SEEM TO
CORRELATE BETTER WITH THE 850 MB FRONT. THE SATELLITE SEEMS TO
SHOW THIS AS WELL AS THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS IS STILL MAINLY
SW. BUT ONCE THE 850 MB FRONT MOVES ACROSS...THE FLOW TURN WNW AND
DRIES OUT. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS THE 850 FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST BY
00Z SO THE CLEARING ALONG THE COAST WILL BE LATER TODAY OR EARLY
TONIGHT. SO HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS AND DELAY THE CLEARING. THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN VA AND NERN NC SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK UP WITH THE MIXING OF THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL NOSE FURTHER INTO THE RGN TONIGHT
LEADING TO CLR SKIES. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S SE.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION ON SAT
AS NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. GNRLY CALLING FOR SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT
AND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES LOOK FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLN IN TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM AS SOLN
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST RUNS. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN AND
THUS HAVE SLOWED PRECIP CHCS TILL DAYTIME SUN. PRECIP WILL START OF
FAIRLY LIGHT AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EURO AND GEM ARE NOW THE MOST CONSISTENT MDLS...AS THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE SE COAST THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THUS CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT. IF SLWR SOLN PRESENTS ITSELF COULD SEE CHCS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE INTO ERLY TUE (ESP FAR NE).
ANOTHER UPR LOW DIGS ACROSS THE US EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. HV INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC SHOWRS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ATTM. TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED ARND SEASONABLY NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRNT NOW PUSHING OFFSHORE WITH MOST PCPN JUST ABT OVR. XCPTN BEING
ECG WHERE SCT SHWRS LINGER NXT HR OR SO. OTW...MVFR CIGS SCT INTO
VFR CNDTNS BY 17Z. WNDS N ARND 10 KT. SKIES CLR AND WNDS AOB 8 KTS
TONITE.
VFR WITH LGHT WNDS SAT. LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC
FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NRLY SURGE ON TRACK WITH WNDS OVR THE BAY INCRG TO BTWN 15-20 KTS
THIS AM. THIS SURGE EASES THIS AFTRN WITH WNDS AOB 15 KTS XPCD
TONITE. 4-5 FT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY...XCPT ACROSS NC
CSTL WTRS WHERE SOME 5 FOOTERS CONT TONITE.
HIGH PRS BLDS OVR THE WTRS SAT AND SAT NITE. FLOW BECOMES NE BY SUN
AHEAD OF LOW PRS APPRCHG FROM THE S. WNDS/SEAS INCRS TO SCA LVLS BY
SUN NITE INTO MON. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING AT SEBRELL QUICKLY FALLING AND SHUD FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY. SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...SMF/CCW
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201305
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MOVES
GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE FRONT HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND RAPID CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
IN ITS WAKE. PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE WATER
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/
SHORT TERM...O`HARA/
LONG TERM...STAUBER/
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201137
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THANKSGIVING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
N/S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL
THIRD ERLY THIS AM WITH SCT SHRAS PUSHING OFFSHORE TWRDS DAYBREAK
(OR SHORTLY AFTER). LOOK FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 8AM BEFORE
ERODING AS SKIES CLR FROM NW/SE THIS MORNING. H85 FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE RGN AND THIS WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS
LEADING TO M/S TO S SKIES W/NW AND M/C-P/C SKIES SE THIS AM AND
TWRDS MID/LATE AFTN SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST. HIGHS TDY IN THE LOW/MID
60S FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL NOSE FURTHER INTO THE RGN TONIGHT
LEADING TO CLR SKIES. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S SE.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION ON SAT
AS NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. GNRLY CALLING FOR SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT
AND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES LOOK FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLN IN TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM AS SOLN
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST RUNS. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN AND
THUS HAVE SLOWED PRECIP CHCS TILL DAYTIME SUN. PRECIP WILL START OF
FAIRLY LIGHT AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EURO AND GEM ARE NOW THE MOST CONSISTENT MDLS...AS THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE SE COAST THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THUS CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT. IF SLWR SOLN PRESENTS ITSELF COULD SEE CHCS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE INTO ERLY TUE (ESP FAR NE).
ANOTHER UPR LOW DIGS ACROSS THE US EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. HV INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC SHOWRS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ATTM. TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED ARND SEASONABLY NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRNT NOW PUSHING OFFSHORE WITH MOST PCPN JUST ABT OVR. XCPTN BEING
ECG WHERE SCT SHWRS LINGER NXT HR OR SO. OTW...MVFR CIGS SCT INTO
VFR CNDTNS BY 17Z. WNDS N ARND 10 KT. SKIES CLR AND WNDS AOB 8 KTS
TONITE.
VFR WITH LGHT WNDS SAT. LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC
FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
NRLY SURGE ON TRACK WITH WNDS OVR THE BAY INCRG TO BTWN 15-20 KTS
THIS AM. THIS SURGE EASES THIS AFTRN WITH WNDS AOB 15 KTS XPCD
TONITE. 4-5 FT SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY...XCPT ACROSS NC
CSTL WTRS WHERE SOME 5 FOOTERS CONT TONITE.
HIGH PRS BLDS OVR THE WTRS SAT AND SAT NITE. FLOW BECOMES NE BY SUN
AHEAD OF LOW PRS APPRCHG FROM THE S. WNDS/SEAS INCRS TO SCA LVLS BY
SUN NITE INTO MON. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING AT SEBRELL QUICKLY FALLING AND SHUD FALL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE LATER TODAY. SEE FLSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...SMF/CCW
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200946
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MOVES
GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW JERSEY AT
0830Z...WAS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REFLECTIVITIES,
CONVECTION, AND RAIN AMOUNTS WERE MORE GENEROUS THAN ONE WOULD
HAVE THOUGHT FOR MID NOVEMBER, PROBABLY DUE TO THE MORE VIGOROUS
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION GENERATED BY THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE
MODEST INSTABILITY. IN ANY CASE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES OVER (MAINLY EASTERN) NEW
JERSEY WILL DRIBBLE OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE FORCING EXITS BY MID MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING WHICH
PRODUCED THE CONVECTION WAS ALREADY OUT OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS
MORNING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. MILD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT AROUND
SUNRISE, AND THEN RECOVER TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE WATER
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM...O`HARA/
LONG TERM...STAUBER/
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KLWX 200858
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETREATS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PRODUCING RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CDFNT SLIDING OFF ERN SEABOARD ERY THIS MRNG...WITH HIPRES BUILDING
IN FROM OHIO VLY. PATCHY FOG OVR SHEN VALLEY...VA PIEDMONT AND
VALLEYS OVER VA FOOTHILLS E OF BLUE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNRISE...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR REMAINDER OF DAY.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL AID DIURNAL EFFECTS IN OFFSETS CAA. WENT
CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMA...U50S/L60S AREAWIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIPRES DRIFTS CLOSER TNGT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS.
EVEN WITH AMPLE RADIATION COOLING...XPCT TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL MEANS...30S FOR MINIMA...XCPT 40S NEAR URBAN CENTERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
THEN RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE GULF STATES.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
CWA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
BACK ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY WELL AHEAD OF GULF LOW PRESSURE...AND
THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN THAT BREAKS OUT LATE IN THE DAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THERE
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES. THERE ARE ALSO TRACK DIFFERENCES REGARDING
EXACTLY HOW NEAR THE COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL BE...BUT MODELS
GENERALLY CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN A
POSITION TO LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE CWA. AS FOR TIMING...HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME FOR LIKELY POPS...AND
MORE TIMING DETAIL AND QPF DETAIL CAN BE ADDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
LOW PRESSURE EXITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE/FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE RENEW CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THURSDAY...ENHANCING UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHELTERED VALLEY AT KCHO HAS ALLOWED FOR MOISTURE TO POOL NEAR SFC
OF DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE...KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS. THIS SHUD IMPROVE
AT SUNRISE AS MIXING TAKES HOLD. VFR CONDS ELSEWHERE...WHICH WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. NW WINDS WILL INCR DRNG THE MRNG...BUT GUSTS
AOB 20 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AIR SPACE ON SATURDAY...THEN
RETREATS ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR
CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
CDFNT PASSED OVR THE WATERS ERY THIS MRNG...NW WINDS GRADUALLY
INCRG...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS XPCD AFTN SUNRISE THRU AFTN ACRS MD
CHESAPEAKE AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. MIDDLE/UPPER POTOMAC SHUD SEE
GUSTS RMN AROUND 15 KTS. HIPRES BUILDS ACRS APPALACHIANS FROM THE
WEST TOWARD THE WATERS THIS EVNG...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THAT TIME...ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK/PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...SBK/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SBK/PELOQUIN
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200851 CCA
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THANKSGIVING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
N/S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL
THIRD ERLY THIS AM WITH SCT SHRAS PUSHING OFFSHORE TWRDS DAYBREAK
(OR SHORTLY AFTER). LOOK FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 8AM BEFORE
ERODING AS SKIES CLR FROM NW/SE THIS MORNING. H85 FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE RGN AND THIS WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS
LEADING TO M/S TO S SKIES W/NW AND M/C-P/C SKIES SE THIS AM AND
TWRDS MID/LATE AFTN SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST. HIGHS TDY IN THE LOW/MID
60S FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL NOSE FURTHER INTO THE RGN TONIGHT
LEADING TO CLR SKIES. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S SE.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION ON SAT
AS NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. GNRLY CALLING FOR SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT
AND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES LOOK FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLN IN TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM AS SOLN
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST RUNS. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN AND
THUS HAVE SLOWED PRECIP CHCS TILL DAYTIME SUN. PRECIP WILL START OF
FAIRLY LIGHT AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EURO AND GEM ARE NOW THE MOST CONSISTENT MDLS...AS THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE SE COAST THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THUS CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT. IF SLWR SOLN PRESENTS ITSELF COULD SEE CHCS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE INTO ERLY TUE (ESP FAR NE).
ANOTHER UPR LOW DIGS ACROSS THE US EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. HV INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC SHOWRS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ATTM. TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED ARND SEASONABLY NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN THREAT AT KRIC HAS ENDED AS FRNTL BNDRY HAS PUSHED E OF THERE.
SCT SHWR ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOVE E ALONG THIS BNDRY AND NOW APPRCHG
CSTL SITES. EVEN A FEW LTG STRIKES APPRCHG THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
SO WILL CONT TO CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR NEXT FEW HRS AT CSTL TAF
SITES UNTIL FRNT CLEARS THE COAST (AFTR 09Z). WON`T MENTION THUNDER
AT KSBY BUT WILL CARRY A CB FOR NXT 2 HRS PER CRNT RADAR LOOP.
XPCT WNDS TO SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FROPA BY 12Z. LTST DATA
EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW HRS OF MVFR CIGS AND PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HRS
EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. CIGS LIFT INTO VFR RANGE THRU AM HRS THEN SCT
OUT AFTR 17Z AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO RGN.
VFR WITH LGHT WNDS FRI NITE AND SAT. MODELS CONT TO DIFFER ON LCTN
AND INTENSITY OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION SUN
INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
BOTH RUC/WRF CONT TO DEPICT A SVRL HR PRD OF NRLY SURGE BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS AM...SO WILL KEEP CRNT SCA`S GOING TDY. WNDS & SEAS SLOWLY
DMNSH THIS AFTRN WITH ALL MARINE AREAS BLO SCA LVLS BY 00Z..XCPT THE
NRN CSTL WTRS OF NC WHERE 4-5 FT SEAS CONT TONITE.
HIGH PRS BLDS OVR THE WTRS SAT AND SAT NITE. FLOW BECOMES NE BY SUN
AHEAD OF LOW PRS APPRCHG FROM THE S. WNDS/SEAS INCRS TO SCA LVLS BY
SUN NITE INTO MON. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING CONTS ACROSS THE CHOWAN BASIN DUE TO THE RECENT HVY
RAINFALL. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE SITE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...SMF/CCW
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200850
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THANKSGIVING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
N/S ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL
THIRD ERLY THIS AM WITH SCT SHRAS PUSHING OFFSHORE TWRDS DAYBREAK
(OR SHORTLY AFTER). LOOK FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 8AM BEFORE
ERODING AS SKIES CLR FROM NW/SE THIS MORNING. H85 FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE RGN AND THIS WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS
LEADING TO M/S TO S SKIES W/NW AND M/C-P/C SKIES SE THIS AM AND
TWRDS MID/LATE AFTN SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST. HIGHS TDY IN THE LOW/MID
60S FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL NOSE FURTHER INTO THE RGN TONIGHT
LEADING TO CLR SKIES. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S SE.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION ON SAT
AS NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. GNRLY CALLING FOR SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OUT
AND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES LOOK FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD WITH SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLN IN TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM AS SOLN
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST RUNS. IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN AND
THUS HAVE SLOWED PRECIP CHCS TILL DAYTIME SUN. PRECIP WILL START OF
FAIRLY LIGHT AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EURO AND GEM ARE NOW THE MOST CONSISTENT MDLS...AS THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE SE COAST THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THUS CHCS FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE SUN NIGHT THRU MON
NIGHT. IF SLWR SOLN PRESENTS ITSELF COULD SEE CHCS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE INTO ERLY TUE (ESP FAR NE).
ANOTHER UPR LOW DIGS ACROSS THE US EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. HV INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC SHOWRS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ATTM. TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED ARND SEASONABLY NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN THREAT AT KRIC HAS ENDED AS FRNTL BNDRY HAS PUSHED E OF THERE.
SCT SHWR ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOVE E ALONG THIS BNDRY AND NOW APPRCHG
CSTL SITES. EVEN A FEW LTG STRIKES APPRCHG THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
SO WILL CONT TO CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR NEXT FEW HRS AT CSTL TAF
SITES UNTIL FRNT CLEARS THE COAST (AFTR 09Z). WON`T MENTION THUNDER
AT KSBY BUT WILL CARRY A CB FOR NXT 2 HRS PER CRNT RADAR LOOP.
XPCT WNDS TO SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FROPA BY 12Z. LTST DATA
EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW HRS OF MVFR CIGS AND PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HRS
EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. CIGS LIFT INTO VFR RANGE THRU AM HRS THEN SCT
OUT AFTR 17Z AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO RGN.
VFR WITH LGHT WNDS FRI NITE AND SAT. MODELS CONT TO DIFFER ON LCTN
AND INTENSITY OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION SUN
INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
BOTH RUC/WRF CONT TO DEPICT A SVRL HR PRD OF NRLY SURGE BEHIND THE
FRNT THIS AM...SO WILL KEEP CRNT SCA`S GOING TDY. WNDS & SEAS SLOWLY
DMNSH THIS AFTRN WITH ALL MARINE AREAS BLO SCA LVLS BY 00Z..XCPT THE
NRN CSTL WTRS OF NC WHERE 4-5 FT SEAS CONT TONITE.
HIGH PRS BLDS OVR THE WTRS SAT AND SAT NITE. FLOW BECOMES NE BY SUN
AHEAD OF LOW PRS APPRCHG FROM THE S. WNDS/SEAS INCRS TO SCA LVLS BY
SUN NITE INTO MON. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HOIST FLAGS FOR THIS
EVENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING CONTS ACROSS THE CHOWAN BASIN DUE TO THE RECENT HVY
RAINFALL. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE SITE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...SMF/CCW
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200830
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MOVES GRADUALLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
AT 08Z...WAS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REFLECTIVITIES,
CONVECTION, AND RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MORE GENEROUS THAN ONE
WOULD THINK FOR MID NOVEMBER, PROBABLY DUE TO THE MORE VIGOROUS
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION GENERATED BY THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE
MODEST INSTABILITY. IN ANY CASE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN, THOUGH, RAIN CHANCES (WITH
THUNDER EAST) WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL DRIBBLE OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE FORCING EXITS BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS, AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE LEAD TO
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS, ONLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MID AND
LATE MORNING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT AROUND
SUNRISE, AND THEN RECOVER TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE WATER
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM...O`HARA /
LONG TERM...STAUBER /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200824
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
324 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
LATE ON SUNDAY...RETURNING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN RIDGES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RUC 250MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A 90KT JET ACROSS WRN PA
PUSHING NE OF THE AREA. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON WITH A TROF AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE
HURON WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SEWD ACROSS
CNTRL NY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE AL/MS BORDER. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
NWD ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN WRN PA...SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED NE OF THE AREA. US SAT WV IMAGERY IS INDICATING A DRY SWATH
OF AIR ADVECTING NEWD INTO THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINNING
TO BREAK IN SERN OH.
TODAY...THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DRYING OUT CONDITIONS. WITH A DRY SLOT
ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL OH AND N-CNTRL WV. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALONG WITH
WRN PA BEING IN A NWRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE FOR A
CLOUDY AFTN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
DECREASING INTO N-CNTRL WV. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
TODAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ACROSS THE CWA AND IN
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE ERN RIDGES.
TONIGHT...WITH MORE OF A SWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST...CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TDS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...LOWS ARE FCST CLOSER TO MAV
GUIDANCE...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FCST REMAINS DRY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTN AS THE HIGH PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE TROF CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN TEXAS WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS THE NEXT CHC FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THE
GFS PHASES THE LOW INTO A MUCH BROADER TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NAM ADVECTS A SHORT WAVE TROF WITH A SFC TROF
RIDING NEWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. HAVE SIDED CLOSER WITH THE NAM
SOLUTION...AS IT SEEMS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
THUS...BEST CHC OF RAINFALL IS FCST CLOSEST TO THE SFC TROF AXIS
ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. COULD HAVE A RELATIVE BREAK FROM RAIN
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND PROGRESS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT HAS COMPLETED A MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER, GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS STRATOCUMULUS FORM IN THE COOLER
AIR/RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE REGION ON
THE FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL SUPPORT IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD THEN PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND BRING
SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200709
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
209 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY AND MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY AND MAY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
FOUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS ONE...AND EVEN
MINUS TWO ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A CHANCE WILL BE KEPT IN UNTIL MORNING
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
RECENTLY IMPROVED THERE, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF LOW
CLOUDS IMPINGING ON THE HILLS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO SOUTH AND FINALLY WEST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT A FEW LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START TO LOWER AFTER THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE
ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
WERE INDICATED FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.
PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE
WATER TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE
IN WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/RPW/
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/RPW/
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200535
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1235 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS COASTAL TROUGH BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING
THE CWA THIS EVENING....WITH A BROKEN LINE OF LGT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TO THE
SOUTHWEST...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE OH/TN VLY.
ALOFT...UPPER LOW DEPICTED NICELY ON EARLY EVENING RAMSDIS WV SAT
IMAGERY OVER UPR GRT LAKES RGN.
WL UPDATE SHORTLY TO REMOVE SHOWERS FROM FAR WESTERN TIER...AND
WL TREND THIS CLEARING FROM SW TO NE INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS.
COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ISO T ACTIVITY FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO IN ASSN WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT WILL DROP THUNDER WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO
NOTING GOOD AMOUNT OF STRATUS ON IR SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS UPR LOW PIVOTS NE INTO WESTERN NY/SE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FLOW GOES WNW TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WHILE
INCREASINGLY DRY COLUMN SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG OVER THE
WEST...AM CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
EVENING OVER I-95 CORRIDOR AND PTS EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
STRATUS CLEARS OUT. RUC DEPICTS COND PREF DEF FIELD OF <3MB FROM
7-11Z OR SO OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WL STOP SHORT OF
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW OVER THIS AREA WITH AREAL CVG OF FOG
STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. HV PAINTED FOG WORDING IN
GRIDS...AND HV HIT THE EASTERN ZONES HARDER THAN THE WEST WITH
THIS WORDING TOWARDS DAWN.
THE BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS REGION
OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL ZONES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
HV BOOSTED LOWS SLIGHTLY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. LOWS MID 40S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...U40S-MID50S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ON FRIDAY...WITH THE SUN RETURNING AND THE
DOWN SLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE 6C TO 10 C RANGE...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE WAS NOT THAT HIGH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE MAV NUMBERS WHICH WERE CLOSE. THE MET LOOKS TOO COOL AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AND THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING OVERHEAD...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FROST ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S WEST AND AROUND 40 IN THE EAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER ON SATURDAY THAN
FRIDAY SO HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SO DESPITE THE LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE A COOL SATURDAY NIGHT SO HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MAV GUIDANCE.
BY SUNDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH NOW SHOW THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL
LIFT MORE NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE BULK
OF THE RAIN GETTING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...THEY ARE TYPICALLY TOO
SLOW WHEN IT COMES TO WARM ADVECTION PCPN. SO DID RAMP UP THE POPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONE ITEM TO WATCH WILL BE HOW FAR WEST THE
CLOSED LOW TRACKS. THE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRENDING WEST WITH
TIME WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. A FURTHER WEST TRACK COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DELAY THE ONSET OF POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...DID LEAN
A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE...BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN AND CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z MDL RUNS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PARSING THE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUN. EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, AN
UPR TROF DIGS ACROSS THE US...PICKING UP SRN STREAM ENERGY FROM THE
GOM...AND HELPING SUPPORT THIS SYS BY MVING IT NEWRD FROM THE GOM.
THE GFS...WHICH UP TILL THE 06 RUN HAD BEEN SHOWING THIS LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST THESE PAST FEW DAYS, IS SHOWING A SPLIT
FLOW...WITH ONE LOW TRACKING WRD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND ANOTHER
LOW MVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM WHICH SEEMS TO FOLLOW
THE GFS TRENDS THESE PAST FEW WEEKS, IS ALSO SHOWING A SIMILAR WRN
TRACK/SPLIT FLOW SOLN. THE EURO AND GEM ARE NOW THE MOST CONSISTENT
MDLS...AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MVING NE ALONG THE SE COAST
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MATTER WHICH MDL YOU LEAN TOWARD, THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIP
ON SUN/SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE ONTO A NEW
TREND...AND THE SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES SO THAT ONE LOW MVS TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY AND THE OTHER BEGIN DEVELOPING MORE OFF THE
COAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE INTERIOR CWA
MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP..BUT THAT`S ONLY IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. FOR NOW, SW UPR FLOW WOULD NOT SUPPORT THIS OCCURING.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SUBSEQUENT MDL RUNS AND SEE HOW THIS PATTERN
EVOLVES. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 60% POPS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LESS THAN NORMAL ATTM. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IF WE DO SEE RAIN THE
BEST CHC WILL STILL BE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW THRU NEXT WED AS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS BRIEFLY BACK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
ANOTHER UPR LOW DIGS ACROSS THE US EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. HV INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC SHOWRS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ATTM. TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED ARND SEASONABLY NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN THREAT AT KRIC HAS ENDED AS FRNTL BNDRY HAS PUSHED E OF THERE.
SCT SHWR ACTIVITY CONTS TO MOVE E ALONG THIS BNDRY AND NOW APPRCHG
CSTL SITES. EVEN A FEW LTG STRIKES APPRCHG THE LWR MD ERN SHORE.
SO WILL CONT TO CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR NEXT FEW HRS AT CSTL TAF
SITES UNTIL FRNT CLEARS THE COAST (AFTR 09Z). WON`T MENTION THUNDER
AT KSBY BUT WILL CARRY A CB FOR NXT 2 HRS PER CRNT RADAR LOOP.
XPCT WNDS TO SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FROPA BY 12Z. LTST DATA
EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW HRS OF MVFR CIGS AND PTCHY FOG FOR A FEW HRS
EITHER SIDE OF 12Z. CIGS LIFT INTO VFR RANGE THRU AM HRS THEN SCT
OUT AFTR 17Z AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO RGN.
VFR WITH LGHT WNDS FRI NITE AND SAT. MODELS CONT TO DIFFER ON LCTN
AND INTENSITY OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION SUN
INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
FRNTL BNDRY TO CROSS WTRS NXT SVRL HRS WITH A WND SHFT INTO THE NW
THEN N. LTST RUC/WRF CONT TO INDCT MARGINAL SCA ACROSS THE BAY BY
SUNRISE AS BRIEF NRLY SURGE DVLPS. CSTL SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN AOA 5
FT...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY FRI AFTN. SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT.
OTHERWISE...WATER WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET (EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SRN
COASTAL WTERS WHERE 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER) INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEXT EVENT COMES SUN AS A SYS (WHICH ORGINATES FROM THE GOM) LIFTS
NE AND ACROSS THE MID ATLC. THERE IS SOME DISCREPENCY AS TO THE
EXACT TRACK THIS SYS WILL TAKE...HALF THE MDLS TAKE A MORE ERLY
COASTAL TRACK, AND THE OTHERS SPLIT THE SYS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS SCA CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLY LOW-END GALE GUSTS...BUT THAT IS REALLY
TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING CONTS ACROSS THE CHOWAN BASIN DUE TO THE RECENT HVY
RAINFALL. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE SITE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/SMF
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200357
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1057 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY AND MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY AND MAY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
FOUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS ONE...AND EVEN
MINUS TWO ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A CHANCE WILL BE KEPT IN UNTIL MORNING
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
RECENTLY IMPROVED THERE, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF LOW
CLOUDS IMPINGING ON THE HILLS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO SOUTH AND FINALLY WEST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT A FEW LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START TO LOWER AFTER THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE
ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
WERE INDICATED FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.
PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 00Z TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS THAT SHOWED VFR CONDITIONS
AT ACY/MIV, MVFR AT PHL/ILG AND CONTINUING IFR AT ABE/RDG/TTN. A
BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH AREAS FROM PHL WESTWARD.
WITHIN THIS AREA WERE SOME TSTMS THAT WERE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO SCATTERED TO THE EAST OF THIS MAIN AREA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR S OF PHL/ACY/MIV BUT
IFR TO THE WEST OF THERE. DUE TO THESE OBSERVED CONDITIONS, THE
TAFS HAVE CONDITIONS LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. HOWEVER, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOME OF THE LOWER CIG/VSBYS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL SITES WITH IFR FCST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW FROM 09-12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI
MORNING AND AFTN WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE WIND WILL VEER
FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WE
WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAY AT THIS TIME.
AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATER SHOULD DECREASE A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA / RPW
NEAR TERM.../ O`HARA / RPW
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO / STAUBER
MARINE...IOVINO / STAUBER
000
FXUS61 KLWX 200330 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1030 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY BEFORE PASSING BY TO OUR
EAST MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CANX THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
PREV DISC...
CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...RAIN STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS HR...WILL BE AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF
THE CWA INTO LATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF HEAVIER REGIONS OF
ACTIVITY...ONE CURRENTLY MOVING NWD THRU THE DC METRO AREA TOWARD
THE BALT METRO. THE OTHER AREA...A LINEAR CLUSTER OF WEAK STORMS
/RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ MAINLY W/ HEAVY RAIN.
THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING MORE NE...SO SRN MD/DELMARVA WILL BE MORE
AFFECTED THAN AREAS NE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR /INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS/.
THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW NOW SLIDING ACROSS SRN MI/NRN IN AND
MAKING A SLOW NELY TREK. A SLIGHT KINK IN THE UPPER LOBE SWINGING
AROUND THE FORWARD SIDE...CAUSING THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID ATLC
TO MOVE ALONG AT A DECENT CLIP OFF TO THE NORTH-NE...BUT STILL THE
EWD PROGRESS IS FAIRLY SLOW. THE OCCLUDED FRONT STILL STRADDLING
BEHIND THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS NOW ORIENTED N-S ACROSS CNTRL VA
DOWN INTO ERN NC. AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WINDS BEHIND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SO WILL
CIGS/VSBYS. NOT TOO FAR BEHIND THOUGH WILL BE A REGIME CHANGE W/
INCREASING WLY WINDS AND A BIT MORE MIXING.
LOOKING AT THE NIGHTTIME SAT IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ AND IR...A
PRONOUNCED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OCCURRING BACK ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL-UP
TOWARD THE NE...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX-OUT FROM THE
WEST BUT NOT UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS FOR MUCH OF THE MID ATLC. THE
SLOW EXIT OF CURRENT RAINFALL AND SPEEDY ENTRANCE OF THE DRIER
CONDITIONS /AND ALSO TIMING CONSIDERATIONS/ POINT TOWARD ONLY
PERIODIC DENSE FOG FOR ISOLATED LOCALES ACROSS THE CWA. SOME DENSE
FOG ASSOCD W/ THE HEAVIER RAIN OR MOISTURE ADVECTION...BUT THE
STAGNENT REGIME OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS /FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD/ FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS EACH DAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS STILL ABOUND...EVEN BEHIND THE RAIN AND WL CONT
INTO TNGT. ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN MVG INTO METRO CRRDR ATTM...AND
SHUD CONT THRU AFTN PUSH. WSHFT EXPECTED AFT 8Z. HWVR...AMPLE BLYR
MSTR MAY LEAD TO AOB IFR THRU NGT...AS LOW CLD/FOG FORMATION MAY
SEPARATE FEATURES FM SFC. THE MOST SOCKED-IN CONDITIONS - NOW THRU
4-5Z...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS. MUCH
IMPROVED BY MID-MRNG FRI...VFR THRU DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN ALONG WITH SUBVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY...BUT THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS STILL SELY...BUT ONLY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE...W/ LITTLE
CONCERN FOR SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL MID-MRNG FRI. TILL THEN...MORE
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE I-95 CRDR INTO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...THEN OVER THE JUST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SCA WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...HTS/BJL
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200312
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1012 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR
THANKSGIVING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS COASTAL TROUGH BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING
THE CWA THIS EVENING....WITH A BROKEN LINE OF LGT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TO THE
SOUTHWEST...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE OH/TN VLY.
ALOFT...UPPER LOW DEPICTED NICELY ON EARLY EVENING RAMSDIS WV SAT
IMAGERY OVER UPR GRT LAKES RGN.
WL UPDATE SHORTLY TO REMOVE SHOWERS FROM FAR WESTERN TIER...AND
WL TREND THIS CLEARING FROM SW TO NE INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS.
COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ISO T ACTIVITY FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO IN ASSN WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT WILL DROP THUNDER WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO
NOTING GOOD AMOUNT OF STRATUS ON IR SAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AS UPR LOW PIVOTS NE INTO WESTERN NY/SE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FLOW GOES WNW TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WHILE
INCREASINGLY DRY COLUMN SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG OVER THE
WEST...AM CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
EVENING OVER I-95 CORRIDOR AND PTS EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
STRATUS CLEARS OUT. RUC DEPICTS COND PREF DEF FIELD OF <3MB FROM
7-11Z OR SO OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WL STOP SHORT OF
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW OVER THIS AREA WITH AREAL CVG OF FOG
STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. HV PAINTED FOG WORDING IN
GRIDS...AND HV HIT THE EASTERN ZONES HARDER THAN THE WEST WITH
THIS WORDING TOWARDS DAWN.
THE BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS REGION
OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL ZONES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
HV BOOSTED LOWS SLIGHTLY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. LOWS MID 40S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...U40S-MID50S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ON FRIDAY...WITH THE SUN RETURNING AND THE
DOWN SLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING. WITH THE 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE 6C TO 10 C RANGE...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. GUIDANCE WAS NOT THAT HIGH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE MAV NUMBERS WHICH WERE CLOSE. THE MET LOOKS TOO COOL AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA AND THE
THERMAL TROUGH SLIDING OVERHEAD...SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FROST ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 30S WEST AND AROUND 40 IN THE EAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER ON SATURDAY THAN
FRIDAY SO HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SO DESPITE THE LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE A COOL SATURDAY NIGHT SO HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MAV GUIDANCE.
BY SUNDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH NOW SHOW THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL
LIFT MORE NE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE BULK
OF THE RAIN GETTING IN UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...THEY ARE TYPICALLY TOO
SLOW WHEN IT COMES TO WARM ADVECTION PCPN. SO DID RAMP UP THE POPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONE ITEM TO WATCH WILL BE HOW FAR WEST THE
CLOSED LOW TRACKS. THE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR TRENDING WEST WITH
TIME WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. A FURTHER WEST TRACK COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DELAY THE ONSET OF POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...DID LEAN
A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE...BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING OF THE PCPN AND CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z MDL RUNS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PARSING THE SYSTEM
PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUN. EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, AN
UPR TROF DIGS ACROSS THE US...PICKING UP SRN STREAM ENERGY FROM THE
GOM...AND HELPING SUPPORT THIS SYS BY MVING IT NEWRD FROM THE GOM.
THE GFS...WHICH UP TILL THE 06 RUN HAD BEEN SHOWING THIS LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST THESE PAST FEW DAYS, IS SHOWING A SPLIT
FLOW...WITH ONE LOW TRACKING WRD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND ANOTHER
LOW MVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM WHICH SEEMS TO FOLLOW
THE GFS TRENDS THESE PAST FEW WEEKS, IS ALSO SHOWING A SIMILAR WRN
TRACK/SPLIT FLOW SOLN. THE EURO AND GEM ARE NOW THE MOST CONSISTENT
MDLS...AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW MVING NE ALONG THE SE COAST
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MATTER WHICH MDL YOU LEAN TOWARD, THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE PRECIP
ON SUN/SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE ONTO A NEW
TREND...AND THE SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES SO THAT ONE LOW MVS TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY AND THE OTHER BEGIN DEVELOPING MORE OFF THE
COAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE INTERIOR CWA
MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH PRECIP..BUT THAT`S ONLY IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. FOR NOW, SW UPR FLOW WOULD NOT SUPPORT THIS OCCURING.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SUBSEQUENT MDL RUNS AND SEE HOW THIS PATTERN
EVOLVES. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH 60% POPS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LESS THAN NORMAL ATTM. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IF WE DO SEE RAIN THE
BEST CHC WILL STILL BE SUN/SUN NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW THRU NEXT WED AS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS BRIEFLY BACK ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
ANOTHER UPR LOW DIGS ACROSS THE US EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. HV INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHC SHOWRS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ATTM. TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED ARND SEASONABLY NORM.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT SHWRS N OF RIC AND ALONG THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE SHWRS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPR LVL SHORT WV AND WL MV TO THE N AND NOT REALLY AFFECT
THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FORCING
MECHANISM AS THE FNTL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE
FRNT WL MV E THIS EVNG AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SCT
SHWRS ACRS THE RGN AS IT MVS THROUGH. MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDS WL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTN BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO LWR AS
FNTL BNDRY APPROACHES. EXPECT MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT CAUSED BY LOW
CIGS AHEAD OF THE FNT AND PATCHY FOG DVLPG BEHIND IT.
HI PRES BEGINS TO BLD INTO THE RGN FRI AFTN WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH
SAT. MDLS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF NEXT
SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO AFFECT THE REGION SUN INTO MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN AOA 5 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST
EARLY FRI AFTN. SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT. MADE A
MINOR TWEAK TO THE NRN COASTAL WATERS...BASICALLY EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINE THRU TOMORROW AFTN.
WEAK FRONT MAKES IT ACROSS THE WATER TONIGHT. WATERS SHOULD SEE A
BRIEF CAA SURGE IN WINDS BY FRI MORNING...15 TO 20 KT ON CHES
BAY...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SCA HEADLINE FOR HERE FOR A 6 HR
PERIOD BEGINNING FRI MORNING UNTIL 1 PM.
OTHERWISE...WATER WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET (EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SRN
COASTAL WTERS WHERE 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER) INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
NEXT EVENT COMES SUN AS A SYS (WHICH ORGINATES FROM THE GOM) LIFTS
NE AND ACROSS THE MID ATLC. THERE IS SOME DISCREPENCY AS TO THE
EXACT TRACK THIS SYS WILL TAKE...HALF THE MDLS TAKE A MORE ERLY
COASTAL TRACK, AND THE OTHERS SPLIT THE SYS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AT
THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS SCA CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLY LOW-END GALE GUSTS...BUT THAT IS REALLY TOO
EARLY TO SAY WITH THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING CONTS ACROSS THE CHOWAN BASIN DUE TO THE RECENT HVY
RAINFALL. SEE WBCFLSAKQ FOR MORE SITE SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/MAM
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...SMF
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KLWX 200227 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY BEFORE PASSING BY TO OUR
EAST MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...RAIN STILL MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA AT THIS HR...WILL BE AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
INTO LATE TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF HEAVIER REGIONS OF ACTIVITY...ONE
CURRENTLY MOVING NWD THRU THE DC METRO AREA TOWARD THE BALT METRO.
THE OTHER AREA...A LINEAR CLUSTER OF WEAK STORMS /RELATIVELY
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ MAINLY W/ HEAVY RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY
DRIFTING MORE NE...SO SRN MD/DELMARVA WILL BE MORE AFFECTED THAN
AREAS NE OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR /INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS/.
THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW NOW SLIDING ACROSS SRN MI/NRN IN AND
MAKING A SLOW NELY TREK. A SLIGHT KINK IN THE UPPER LOBE SWINGING
AROUND THE FORWARD SIDE...CAUSING THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID ATLC
TO MOVE ALONG AT A DECENT CLIP OFF TO THE NORTH-NE...BUT STILL THE
EWD PROGRESS IS FAIRLY SLOW. THE OCCLUDED FRONT STILL STRADDLING
BEHIND THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS NOW ORIENTED N-S ACROSS CNTRL VA
DOWN INTO ERN NC. AS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WINDS BEHIND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SO WILL
CIGS/VSBYS. NOT TOO FAR BEHIND THOUGH WILL BE A REGIME CHANGE W/
INCREASING WLY WINDS AND A BIT MORE MIXING.
LOOKING AT THE NIGHTTIME SAT IMAGERY /11U-3.9U/ AND IR...A
PRONOUNCED DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OCCURRING BACK ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APLCNS. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL-UP
TOWARD THE NE...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX-OUT FROM THE
WEST BUT NOT UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS FOR MUCH OF THE MID ATLC. THE
SLOW EXIT OF CURRENT RAINFALL AND SPEEDY ENTRANCE OF THE DRIER
CONDITIONS /AND ALSO TIMING CONSIDERATIONS/ POINT TOWARD ONLY
PERIODIC DENSE FOG FOR ISOLATED LOCALES ACROSS THE CWA. SOME DENSE
FOG ASSOCD W/ THE HEAVIER RAIN OR MOISTURE ADVECTION...BUT THE
STAGNENT REGIME OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS /FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD/ FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS EACH DAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY BEFORE
RIDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS STILL ABOUND...EVEN BEHIND THE RAIN AND WL CONT
INTO TNGT. ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN MVG INTO METRO CRRDR ATTM...AND
SHUD CONT THRU AFTN PUSH. WSHFT EXPECTED AFT 8Z. HWVR...AMPLE BLYR
MSTR MAY LEAD TO AOB IFR THRU NGT...AS LOW CLD/FOG FORMATION MAY
SEPARATE FEATURES FM SFC. THE MOST SOCKED-IN CONDITIONS - NOW THRU
4-5Z...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HRS. MUCH
IMPROVED BY MID-MRNG FRI...VFR THRU DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAIN ALONG WITH SUBVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY...BUT THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS STILL SELY...BUT ONLY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE...W/ LITTLE
CONCERN FOR SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL MID-MRNG FRI. TILL THEN...MORE
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE I-95 CRDR INTO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...THEN OVER THE JUST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SCA WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC FRIDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BAY/TIDAL PTMC COMING OUT OF THEIR HIGH
TIDE CYCLES...W/ THE NRN SITES MOVING TOWARD THEIR HIGH LATE NIGHT
CYCLES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS...W/ EXPECTATIONS THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
TIME W/ ONLY MINOR FLOODING EFFECTS AT HIGH TIDE...AS TIDES
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NLY WIND COMPONENT WON/T REACH THE AREA TO HELP BRING TIDE
LEVELS BACK TOWARD NORMAL UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HRS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ013-
014-016>018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ052>055-057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...HTS/BJL
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200124 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
824 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INDICATE THE SHOWERS LIMITED
TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TNGT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ADDED IN
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UL WAVE SWINGS AROUND
SOUTHERN EDGE OF 50H LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAINS
THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK...WITH THE GFS CLOSER
TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL INCLUDE MINOR CHANCES OF
SHWRS SUNDAY AFTN ALONG THE RIDGES OF WV/MD...WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE PULLING FAR ENOUGH NORTHWESTWARD
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BRING PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST THAN ECMWF.
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. COULD HAVE A RELATIVE BREAK FROM RAIN
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SCATTERED
POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. VIS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE VFR LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS DRIER LL AIR IS MOVING IN
BEHIND SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...RAIN OR SPRINKLES WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AFT 06Z.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME DRYING WITH MAINLY VFR
WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200102
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
HAVE BECOME LESS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE
CONVECTION THAT WAS EVIDENT EARLIER THIS EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
AREAS IS NOW GONE, SO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AND END TO THE RAINS
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE. WINDS WILL BE SERLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN TURN SRLY EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER FROPA WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRI MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY OVER
THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE ZONES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO TEMPERATURES FRI WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATES AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUN. I HAVE INDICATED MORE CLOUDS
FOR THE AREA AND A SLGT CHC OR CHC OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE
IS A HIGHER CHC FOR RAINS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.
PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 00Z TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS THAT SHOWED VFR CONDITIONS
AT ACY/MIV, MVFR AT PHL/ILG AND CONTINUING IFR AT ABE/RDG/TTN. A
BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH AREAS FROM PHL WESTWARD.
WITHIN THIS AREA WERE SOME TSTMS THAT WERE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO SCATTERED TO THE EAST OF THIS MAIN AREA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR S OF PHL/ACY/MIV BUT
IFR TO THE WEST OF THERE. DUE TO THESE OBSERVED CONDITIONS, THE
TAFS HAVE CONDITIONS LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. HOWEVER, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOME OF THE LOWER CIG/VSBYS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL SITES WITH IFR FCST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW FROM 09-12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI
MORNING AND AFTN WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE WIND WILL VEER
FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WE
WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAY AT THIS TIME.
AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATER SHOULD DECREASE A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/RPW
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/RPW
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO/STAUBER
MARINE...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPHI 192316
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINS BY MORNING OVER MOST
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRAWING CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AS AN SFC/UPPER LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. SRLY FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT MOIST AND WARMER AIR AND
SOME INSTABILITY TO THE MIX. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER
MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE BEST CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AND END TO THE RAINS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE. WINDS WILL BE SERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
TURN SRLY EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER FROPA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRI MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY OVER
THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE ZONES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO TEMPERATURES FRI WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATES AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUN. I HAVE INDICATED MORE CLOUDS
FOR THE AREA AND A SLGT CHC OR CHC OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE
IS A HIGHER CHC FOR RAINS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.
PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 00Z TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS THAT SHOWED VFR CONDITIONS
AT ACY/MIV, MVFR AT PHL/ILG AND CONTINUING IFR AT ABE/RDG/TTN. A
BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH AREAS FROM PHL WESTWARD.
WITHIN THIS AREA WERE SOME TSTMS THAT WERE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO SCATTERED TO THE EAST OF THIS MAIN AREA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR S OF PHL/ACY/MIV BUT
IFR TO THE WEST OF THERE. DUE TO THESE OBSERVED CONDITIONS, THE
TAFS HAVE CONDITIONS LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. HOWEVER, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOME OF THE LOWER CIG/VSBYS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL SITES WITH IFR FCST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW FROM 09-12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI
MORNING AND AFTN WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE WIND WILL VEER
FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WE
WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAY AT THIS TIME.
AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATER SHOULD DECREASE A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO/STAUBER
MARINE...IOVINO
|
