000
FXUS61 KCAR 230158
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
858 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING AROUND THE SFC HIGH FROM NEW
BRUNSWICK AND NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC OVRNGT...BUT FORECAST LOW TEMPS
MOST LOW LYING AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEG LOWER THAN
MODEL PREDICTED SFC DEW/FROST POINTS LATE TNGT. WITH ONLY WEAKLY
CORRESPONDING NEGATIVE HYDRO-LAPSE RATES XPCTD TO PROGGED
CORRESPONDING 925 MB DEW/FROST POINTS THAT ARE CLOSELY MATCHING
FORECAST LOW TEMPS...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG OVR THE FA N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

OTHERWISE...FCST LOWS BASED OFF A 10C RADIATION SFC-925 MB
INVERSION IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT BLENDED UPWARD A BIT
WITH GEMS AND MOS GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN SOME UPPER TEENS IN
GRIDS. WITH OLD TOWN HAVING DROPPED TO 25F YESTERDAY...DON`T SEE
WHY ANOTHER 4 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER IS NOT POSSIBLE WITH NO SC
PRESENT TO TRAP BOUNDARY LYR WARMTH. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE MONDAY EXCEPT SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO MID-COAST LATER
IN THE DAY. LOOKING FOR THE SHALLOW MORNING INVERSION TO BE
ELIMINATED WITH MORNING HEATING AND TEMPS TO RECOVER TO READINGS A
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY WITH WAA OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS MAINE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST LATE. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST
EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN CLIPPING
DOWNEAST AREAS PARTICULARLY THE COAST. THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A SHARP
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT NORTH OF DOWNEAST AREAS. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTHERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING DOWNEAST. THE REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WE SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AND IT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
THE STORM SYSTEM COMING ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA.
IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE THIS STORM
TAPPING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND PHASING UP BRINGING SOME WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING
TO WATCH AND SEE IF THIS TREND PERSISTS ON LATER MODEL RUNS. AGAIN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM IS VERY IMPORTANT IN THE PRECIP TYPE FOR
THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT BEING SAID DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
SITUATION HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND SOME
AREAS DOWNEAST COULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THE THE POPS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH ON SUNDAY AND STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIP ON SUNDAY. AS FOR THE TEMPS HAVE USED GMOS AND
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IFR WITH PATCHY RVR VLY FOG
LATE TNGT AT ONE OR MORE OF OUR TAF SITES.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THURSDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A STORM MOVING UP THE US COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE
MONDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...WALKER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/NORCROSS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 230048 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
748 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND BEING NUDGED ENE BY THE COASTAL LOW NOW
ORGANIZING OVER SOUTH GEORGIA. STRATUS LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WAS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THREATENING TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE SEACOAST OF
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOWS A BIT
HIGHER THAN THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE. OTHER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. RADIATION FOG WILL FORM SHORTLY ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
LOWS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE STRATUS AND FOG. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS SPREAD FURTHER INLAND IN INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS BY AFTERNOON CONFINED TO AREAS FAR
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE ONSHORE BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A
BIT MORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND LESS CONFIDENCE ON
HOW THE SECOND WILL UNFOLD LATE THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO MASS FIELDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOP ON THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...AND TRACK SHOULD BE NEAR THE BENCHMARK.

THE 1200 UTC NAM BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF NORTH ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF OFFSHORE (CLOSE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE).
BASED ON THE ABOVE...LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR PLACEMENT
OF QPF. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT.

NORTH OF THIS...THE AIRMASS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW. THE COLUMN IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
IN JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME
STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED FOR
LOWS.

SAME SITUATION FOR TUESDAY...USING THE SAME RATIONALE. THIS PLACES
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT
NEAR THE COAST MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID COAST. AT THIS POINT...THE MOS
BLEND APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR ALL AREAS...AND THESE
NUMBERS WERE NUDGED DOWN.

MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THIS...THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD IN JUST HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR MAY WAIT UNTIL
LATE AT NIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM TIMING FOR
CLEARING. THE TIMING DIFFERENCE IS IMPORTANT FOR LOWS...AS THERE
IS AS MUCH AS A 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN LOWS BETWEEN MOS VALUES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MUCH COLDER GFS MOS IS TOO
COLD AND LOWS WERE BASED MORE CLOSELY ON THE WARMER NAM MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM EASTERN QUEBEC SHOULD BRING
CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING (AT THE LATEST). SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE EXITING AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY.
THE 1200 UTC GFS IS SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS
YET...BUT MAY HAVE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY TO ACCOUNT. AFTER THIS...MID RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE 1200 UTC ECMWF IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 1200 UTC GFS IN THE
DETAILS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH ARE NOW KEYING
DEVELOPMENT ON THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 1200
UTC GFS SHIFTS THE FIRST (AND PERHAPS BOGUS?) SHORT WAVE OUT AND
BOTH MODELS DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO MOISTEN AND WARM
THE COLUMN TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DIFFERS BETWEEN MODELS...WITH
THE 1200 UTC GFS MUCH HEAVIER WITH REGARD TO QPF...WITH THE ECMWF
ABOUT HALF OF THE 3+ INCHES SHOWN BY THE GFS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.
THIS SEEMS TO BE DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSING ON A ZONE OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION ON THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXED LAYER FOR MORE THAN THAT.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...COLD AIR IS AVAILABLE...AND THE
PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE IT
ENDS. WOULD EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...BUT
ELSEWHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z MONDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR
AROUND 0600 UTC FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KAUG WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR.
DECREASING TO IFR AROUND 09-10Z AT KPWM/KPSM/KCON WITH LIFR
EXPECTED AT KLEB IN FOG AND STRATUS.

LONG TERM...WOULD EXPECT MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
LOWERING INVERSION. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR FOR CEILINGS
AFTER ABOUT 0600 UTC TUESDAY (SOONER NEAR THE COAST...A BIT LATER
AT KCON AND KLEB). VISIBILITY IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN...AS IT
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD WITH AN OFFSHORE WAVE
GETS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSM AND KPWM.

ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE IFR IN CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY AS
THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 1200 WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THIS...WOULD EXPECT LOWERING CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
AND BEYOND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE WAVE PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT INCREASES ENOUGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS) TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS. IN FACT...BY 1200 UTC TUESDAY...WINDS MAY GE GUSTING NEAR
35 KNOTS AT IOSN3. MODELS TEND NOT TO PICK UP ON THIS LOCAL
ACCELERATION.

WOULD EXPECT TO SEAS TO REACT TO THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FETCH
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BE NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS ANZ154 BY MORNING...
AND APPROACHING THAT IN THE OTHER OCEAN WATERS.

THE WAVE MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN ALL WATERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE CLOSE TO 400 FEET TUESDAY MORNING...
AND THIS WOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN.
WILL NOT INDICATE THIS YET...BUT KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...OVER THE BAYS FIRST AND ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS LATE AT NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OCEAN MAY TAKE ALL NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FETCH SORTS
ITSELF OUT.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
DETAILS OF SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GRADIENT CERTAINLY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
WHETHER WINDS GETS ANY HIGHER WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE FINAL
TRACK...AND HOW THIS INFLUENCES THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
UPDATE...HANES

000
FXUS61 KCAR 222120
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH STRATOCU ERODING ACROSS THE STATE EXCEPT A SMALL PIECE LEFT
IN THE ALLAGASH ATTM...FOCUS MOVES TO TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE STATE...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE. DRY AIR IS
ADVECTING AROUND THE HIGH FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHEASTERN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. UNDER PERFECT
CONDITIONS...SOME NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS COULD RADIATE TO THE LOW
TEENS TONIGHT. HAVE ASSUMED A 10C RADIATION INVERSION IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS...BUT BLENDED UPWARD A BIT WITH GEMS AND MOS
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN SOME UPPER TEENS IN GRIDS. WITH OLD TOWN
HAVING DROPPED TO 25F YESTERDAY...DON`T SEE WHY ANOTHER 4 TO 5
DEGREES LOWER IS NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT STRATOCU TO TRAP BOUNDARY
LYR WARMTH. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE MONDAY EXCEPT
SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO MID-COAST LATER IN THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
THE SHALLOW MORNING INVERSION TO BE ELIMINATED WITH MORNING
HEATING AND TEMPS TO RECOVER TO READINGS A SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY WITH WAA OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS MAINE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST LATE. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST
EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN CLIPPING
DOWNEAST AREAS PARTICULARLY THE COAST. THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A SHARP
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT NORTH OF DOWNEAST AREAS. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTHERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING DOWNEAST. THE REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WE SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AND IT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
THE STORM SYSTEM COMING ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA.
IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE THIS STORM
TAPPING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND PHASING UP BRINGING SOME WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING
TO WATCH AND SEE IF THIS TREND PERSISTS ON LATER MODEL RUNS. AGAIN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM IS VERY IMPORTANT IN THE PRECIP TYPE FOR
THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT BEING SAID DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
SITUATION HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND SOME
AREAS DOWNEAST COULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THE THE POPS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH ON SUNDAY AND STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIP ON SUNDAY. AS FOR THE TEMPS HAVE USED GMOS AND
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
ALLAGASH.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THURSDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A STORM MOVING UP THE US COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE
MONDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/NORCROSS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 221930
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
230 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING
THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1031 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS VICINITY OF THE GASPE PENINSULA AT 19Z. LOW
CLOUDS FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY EARLIER HAD
LARGELY DISSIPATED AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS HAD EXPANDED
IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

CLEAR AND COLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS
THAT MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT. OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS
AS WELL AS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING GRADUALLY INLAND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER
OVERNIGHT READINGS. A BLEND OF MET/MAV NUMBERS WERE USED TO
INITIALIZE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS SPREAD FURTHER INLAND IN INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS BY AFTERNOON CONFINED TO AREAS
FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE ONSHORE BREEZE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A
BIT MORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND LESS CONFIDENCE ON
HOW THE SECOND WILL UNFOLD LATE THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO MASS FIELDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOP ON THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...AND TRACK SHOULD BE NEAR THE BENCHMARK.

THE 1200 UTC NAM BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF NORTH ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF OFFSHORE (CLOSE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE).
BASED ON THE ABOVE...LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR PLACEMENT
OF QPF. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT.

NORTH OF THIS...THE AIRMASS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW. THE COLUMN IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
IN JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME
STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED FOR
LOW.

SAME SITUATION FOR TUESDAY...USING THE SAME RATIONALE. THIS PLACES
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT
NEAR THE COAST MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID COAST. AT THIS POINT...THE MOS
BLEND APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR ALL AREAS...AND THESE
NUMBERS WERE NUDGED DOWN.

MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THIS...THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD IN JUST HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR MAY WAIT UNTIL
LATE AT NIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM TIMING FOR
CLEARING. THE TIMING DIFFERENCE IS IMPORTANT FOR LOWS...AS THERE
IS AS MUCH AS A 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN LOWS BETWEEN MOS VALUES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MUCH COLDER GFS MOS IS TOO
COLD AND LOWS WERE BASED MORE CLOSELY ON THE WARMER NAM MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM EASTERN QUEBEC SHOULD BRING
CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING (AT THE LATEST). SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE EXITING AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY.
THE 1200 UTC GFS IS SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS
YET...BUT MAY HAVE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY TO ACCOUNT. AFTER THIS...MID RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE 1200 UTC ECMWF IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 1200 UTC GFS IN THE
DETAILS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH ARE NOW KEYING
DEVELOPMENT ON THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 1200
UTC GFS SHIFTS THE FIRST (AND PERHAPS BOGUS?) SHORT WAVE OUT AND
BOTH MODELS DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO MOISTEN AND WARM
THE COLUMN TO KEEP MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DIFFERS BETWEEN MODELS...WITH
THE 1200 UTC GFS MUCH HEAVIER WITH REGARD TO QPF...WITH THE ECMWF
ABOUT HALF OF THE 3+ INCHES SHOWN BY THE GFS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.
THIS SEEMS TO BE DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSING ON A ZONE OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION ON THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXED LAYER FOR MORE THAN THAT.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...COLD AIR IS AVAILABLE...AND THE
PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE IT
ENDS. WOULD EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...BUT
ELSEWHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z MONDAY/...VFR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR
VCNY OF /KPSM/ GRADUALLY SPREADING N AND W TO VCNTY OF /KCON/ AND
/KPWM/ BY 06Z AND TO VCNTY OF /KLEB/ BY 10Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER MONDAY AND SPREAD GRADUALLY NORTH TO VCNTY OF /KAUG/ BY 18Z.

LONG TERM...WOULD EXPECT MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
LOWERING INVERSION. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR FOR CEILINGS
AFTER ABOUT 0600 UTC (SOONER NEAR THE COAST...A BIT LATER AT KCON
AND KLEB). VISIBILITY IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN...AS IT DEPENDS ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD WITH AN OFFSHORE WAVE GETS...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSM AND KPWM.

ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE IFR IN CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY AS
THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 1200 WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THIS...WOULD EXPECT LOWERING CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
AND BEYOND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE WAVE PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT INCREASES ENOUGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS) TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS. IN FACT...BY 1200 UTC TUESDAY...WINDS MAY GE GUSTING NEAR
35 KNOTS AT IOSN3. MODELS TEND NOT TO PICK UP ON THIS LOCAL
ACCELERATION.

WOULD EXPECT TO SEAS TO REACT TO THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FETCH
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BE NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS ANZ154 BY MORNING...
AND APPROACHING THAT IN THE OTHER OCEAN WATERS.

THE WAVE MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN ALL WATERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE CLOSE TO 400 FEET TUESDAY MORNING...
AND THIS WOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN.
WILL NOT INDICATE THIS YET...BUT KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...OVER THE BAYS FIRST AND ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS LATE AT NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OCEAN MAY TAKE ALL NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FETCH SORTS
ITSELF OUT.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
DETAILS OF SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GRADIENT CERTAINLY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
WHETHER WINDS GETS ANY HIGHER WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE FINAL
TRACK...AND HOW THIS INFLUENCES THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 221413
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
913 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY.  LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT 13Z. VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW CLOUD...TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON 12Z RAOBS...ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED
WITH A FEW STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE NORTHEAST
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...EXCEPT A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE STUBBORN STRATOCU ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
1ST PERIOD GRIDS ADJUSTED BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESONET.


PREV DISC...
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY WITH SOME
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVER NORTHERN AND
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD...READING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARRIVING.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 5 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR MONDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NAM AND ECMWF
LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH THAN GFS. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHC IN SRN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE AS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MODELS INDICATE RIDGING AT 5H. WED MAY
TURN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD DAY. I AM PROBABLY TOO PESSIMISTIC
WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

BEYOND WED CONFIDENCE IN FCST IS LOW AS GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN DEVELOPS A STRONG SFC LOW OVER
NYC FRI. ECMWF IS SIMILAR. GEM BRINGS SFC LOW THROUGH SRN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR IN
CLOUDS VICINITY OF THE CONN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THU EXCEPT SOME PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW FOR THE
UPDATE.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS SFC LOW MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SCA PSBL THUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND GALE
FORCE WINDS PSBL FRI AND SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 221150
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
650 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO SETTLE IN THROUGH THIS TERM. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED THE GRIDS TO BRING MORE CLOUDS TO CENTRAL AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING PER LATEST SATL IMAGES AS CLOUD IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN NNE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. HRLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED AS WELL TO FIT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

LATEST IR STAL IMAGERY SHOWED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS(2500 FT)
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE RUC GRABS THIS NICELY AS
DOES THE LATEST LAPS. MDL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE RUC SHOW THIS
STRATOCUMULUS DECK HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE N. THIS
DRY AIR WAS SHOWING UP AS WELL ON THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY OVER
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST...MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS. TWEAKED GMOS NUMBERS
DOWN A DEGREE OR 2 ACROSS THE NORTH W/LOWER 40S AND MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE.

MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SHOWING
UP BELOW 2500 FT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION W/AN ESE FLOW AND
INVERSION. THE SREF 4 PANEL MOISTURE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS TO SOME
POINT. DECIDED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE COAST AND NUDGED THEM
UP THE PENOBSCOT RIVER TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IN TURN COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TOO LOW IN THESE AREAS OPPOSITE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. TWEAKED
THE DAYCREW/S TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND BROUGHT THEM UP ACROSS THE
BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. FURTHER
NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLIER W/MID-UPPER 20S.
CONTINUED DAY AND A BIT MILDER ON MONDAY W/THE CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL TO THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD BUT RIDGING REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BRINGING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM AND
GFS FOR POP...SKY COVER AND QPF. FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND
WIND WILL USE GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SMOOTH
GRIDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THEN RE-DEVELOP SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH. WARM AIR MOVING
NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A MOSTLY LIQUID
EVENT INTO SATURDAY....HOWEVER COLDER WILL MOVE AROUND THE BACK OF
THE SYSTEM LATER INTO THE WEEKEND CHANGING SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH GMOS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
SKY...POP AND WIND GUST GRIDS. WILL BASE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE BHB
AREA WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z. GENERALLY VFR RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR
BGR/BHB. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW
MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ATTM...DECISION
WAS TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB TUESDAY NIGHT AND
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND
SEAS OF 2-3 FT LOOK TO BE GOING RATE FOR THIS TERM.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. WILL
INCREASE MODEL BLEND WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS IN NORTHEAST WIND
TUESDAY. HAVE TRANSITIONED TO GMOS WINDS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. FOR
WAVES: WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH WNA/4. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR GMOS WINDS IN INTRA-COASTAL ZONES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE

000
FXUS61 KCAR 220826
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
326 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO SETTLE IN THROUGH THIS TERM. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST IR STAL IMAGERY SHOWED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS(2500 FT)
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE RUC GRABS THIS NICELY AS
DOES THE LATEST LAPS. MDL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE RUC SHOW THIS
STRATOCUMULUS DECK HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE N. THIS
DRY AIR WAS SHOWING UP AS WELL ON THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY OVER
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST...MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS. TWEAKED GMOS NUMBERS
DOWN A DEGREE OR 2 ACROSS THE NORTH W/LOWER 40S AND MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE.

MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SHOWING
UP BELOW 2500 FT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION W/AN ESE FLOW AND
INVERSION. THE SREF 4 PANEL MOISTURE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS TO SOME
POINT. DECIDED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE COAST AND NUDGED THEM
UP THE PENOBSCOT RIVER TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IN TURN COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TOO LOW IN THESE AREAS OPPOSITE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. TWEAKED
THE DAYCREW/S TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND BROUGHT THEM UP ACROSS THE
BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. FURTHER
NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLIER W/MID-UPPER 20S.
CONTINUED DAY AND A BIT MILDER ON MONDAY W/THE CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL TO THE EAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD BUT RIDGING REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BRINGING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM AND
GFS FOR POP...SKY COVER AND QPF. FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND
WIND WILL USE GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SMOOTH
GRIDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THEN RE-DEVELOP SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH. WARM AIR MOVING
NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A MOSTLY LIQUID
EVENT INTO SATURDAY....HOWEVER COLDER WILL MOVE AROUND THE BACK OF
THE SYSTEM LATER INTO THE WEEKEND CHANGING SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH GMOS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
SKY...POP AND WIND GUST GRIDS. WILL BASE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE BHB
AREA WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z. GENERALLY VFR RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR
BGR/BHB. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW
MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ATTM...DECISION
WAS TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB TUESDAY NIGHT AND
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND
SEAS OF 2-3 FT LOOK TO BE GOING RATE FOR THIS TERM.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. WILL
INCREASE MODEL BLEND WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS IN NORTHEAST WIND
TUESDAY. HAVE TRANSITIONED TO GMOS WINDS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. FOR
WAVES: WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH WNA/4. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR GMOS WINDS IN INTRA-COASTAL ZONES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT/MIGNONE

000
FXUS61 KGYX 220801
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY.  LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY WITH SOME
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVER NORTHERN AND
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD...READING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARRIVING.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 5 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR MONDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NAM AND ECMWF
LIFTASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH THAN GFS. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHC IN SRN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE AS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MODELS INDICATE RIDGING AT 5H. WED MAY
TURN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD DAY. I AM PROBABLY TOO PESIMISTIC
WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

BEYOND WED CONFIDENCE IN FCST IS LOW AS GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN DEVELOPS A STRONG SFC LOW OVER
NYC FRI. ECMWF IS SIMILAR. GEM BRINGS SFC LOW THROUGH SRN CANADA.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL IFR IN ANY
PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL 11Z-13Z.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURS EXCEPT SOME PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS SFC LOW MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SCA PSBL THUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND GALE
FORCE WINDS PSBL FRI AND SAT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 220220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.&&

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
AFFECTING NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER INTERIOR AREAS WHERE DRY AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER
EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRY AIR WILL MIGRATE
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING...AND A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS IN TURN ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
FOR THIS EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE AND AVIATION...CANTIN/

000
FXUS61 KGYX 220057 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
757 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARM WITH TEMPS
AND SLIGHTLY LOW WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL WATCH FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
AREA. IF CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE...LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SH

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS...A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...NEARLY A FULL 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WINDS SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ADDING A BIT OF A CHILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDINESS TO A MINIMUM SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WOULD EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S
IN ALL AREAS...FAVORED A COOLER GFS MOS SOLUTION IN JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES...SO THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE
DRY TO START. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL GO INTO
MOISTENING THE COLUMN. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY DURING
MONDAY. AFTER A COLD START...WOULD THINK A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS
SHOULD BE OK FOR HIGHS.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE COLUMN WARMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

FURTHER NORTH...THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. EVEN HERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE
COLUMN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR MUCH BESIDE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN BUMPED UP A BIT DUE TO CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD...AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUGGEST MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD STAY DRY. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
RAIN NEAR THE COAST.

AFTER THIS...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE WITH RESPECT TO
THE MASS FIELDS...THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT. WITH BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES....
WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
THE 1200 UTC GFS SWINGS A SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM...
BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THIS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT...THANKSGIVING ITSELF COULD BE DRY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON THE TIMING SINCE IT IS TIED TO A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS...EXPECT TO SEE A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW...THE COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...BUT COOLING WITH LOWER HEIGHT COULD INTRODUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z SUNDAY/...VFR EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG BTWN 08 AND 14Z AT KCON WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KLEB BTWN 10 AND 13Z.

LONG TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL START TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT...AND KPSM...KPWM
AND PERHAPS KAUG MAY SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BRINGING MOISTURE IN AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD APPEAR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH REORIENTS ITSELF WEST TO EAST...THE
GRADIENT FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST THEN EAST. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
CONSTANT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS WINDS REMAINS BELOW 20
KNOTS.

AS THE GRADIENT PRODUCES A MORE FAVORABLE EAST TO NORTHEAST
FETCH...SEAS WILL START COMING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WOULD
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...
WHERE THE FETCH SHOULD BE MOST EFFECTIVE.

THE GRADIENT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE HIGH EXITING OVER THE MARITIMES AND THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST DECREASES. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON THE FETCH...WOULD EXPECT SEAS TO REACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER ALL OF THE OCEAN WATERS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE BAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE IF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO REACH NEAR GALE. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE CLOSE...BUT MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. BECAUSE OF THIS...WINDS WERE CAPPED BELOW GALE THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY DROP OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HOWEVER...THE SWELL THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD MAINTAIN SEAS WELL ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 212042
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
342 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS STRATOCU FIELDS
ACROSS THE FA AND THEIR EFFECT ON LOWS TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE LARGE AREAS OF STRATOCU INTACT TONIGHT BASED ON GFS
GUIDANCE, CONTINUING NORTH FLOW, AND SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP LIGHT
WINDS GOING MOST OF NIGHT EXCEPT IN FAR WESTERN REGIONS SUCH AS
ZONES 1, 3 AND 4 WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
AS A RESULT, HAVE KEPT TEMPS UP IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN
MOST OF FA EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME SHELTERED
LOCATIONS COULD RADIATE DOWN TO JUST BELOW 20F.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION....THEN MOVE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN NORTH FROM LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID ATLANTIC LOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE NORTH AGAINST THE
RIDGE. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DOWNEAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REACHING NORTHERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG TO THE EAST AND FORCING THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. GFS IS STILL THE WETTER OF
THE TWO SOLUTIONS. HAVE CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOCUSED TO THE DOWNEAST
AREA OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE AND WITH THAT HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
RAIN SHOULD TAPER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMES IN
TO PLAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
ANOTHER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE PATH OF THIS
STORM IS IMPORTANT TO THE PRECIP TYPE AND AT THIS TIME IT FAVORS
THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE BEING SNOW FOR FRIDAY. AS FOR THE TEMPS HAVE
USED GMOS AND ADJUSTED AS NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT AT KCAR, KFVE, KPQI AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
MAINE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS SUNSET AND REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER MAINE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL IN COASTAL WATERS IS STEADILY
DECREASING AND CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE THAT THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST
         THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/NORCROSS

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
215 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE WIND HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE QUESTION
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
HENCE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW STRAY
LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE 1024 MILLIBAR HIGH
CENTERED OVER OHIO AT 19Z BUILDS EASTWARD. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
TEMPERATURES USED TO INITIALIZE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS...A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...NEARLY A FULL 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WINDS SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ADDING A BIT OF A CHILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDINESS TO A MINIMUM SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WOULD EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S
IN ALL AREAS...FAVORED A COOLER GFS MOS SOLUTION IN JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES...SO THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE
DRY TO START. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL GO INTO
MOISTENING THE COLUMN. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY DURING
MONDAY. AFTER A COLD START...WOULD THINK A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS
SHOULD BE OK FOR HIGHS.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE COLUMN WARMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

FURTHER NORTH...THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. EVEN HERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE
COLUMN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR MUCH BESIDE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN BUMPED UP A BIT DUE TO CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD...AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE TRACK OF THE SLOW SUGGEST MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD STAY DRY. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
RAIN NEAR THE COAST.

AFTER THIS...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE WITH RESPECT TO
THE MASS FIELDS...THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT. WITH BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES....
WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
THE 1200 UTC GFS SWINGS A SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM...
BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THIS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT...THANKSGIVING ITSELF COULD BE DRY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON THE TIMING SINCE IT IS TIED TO A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS...EXPECT TO SEE A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW...THE COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...BUT COOLING WITH LOWER HEIGHT COULD INTRODUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z SUNDAY/...VFR EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG BTWN 08 AND 14Z WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT /KLEB/ BTWN 10 AND 13Z.

LONG TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL START TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT...AND KPSM...KPWM
AND PERHAPS KAUG MAY SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WILL LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD APPEAR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH REORIENTS ITSELF WEST TO EAST...THE
GRADIENT FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST THEN EAST. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
CONSTANT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS WINDS REMAINS BELOW 20
KNOTS.

AS THE GRADIENT PRODUCES A MORE FAVORABLE EAST TO NORTHEAST
FETCH...SEAS WILL START COMING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
WOULD EXPECT SEAS TO REACH NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...WHERE THE FETCH SHOULD BE MOST EFFECTIVE.

THE GRADIENT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH EXITING OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON THE FETCH...WOULD EXPECT TO SEAS
REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER ALL OF THE OCEAN WATERS...AND
PERHAPS EVEN THE BAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE IF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO REACH NEAR GALE. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE CLOSE...BUT MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. BECAUSE OF THIS...WINDS WERE CAPPED BELOW GALE THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY DROP OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HOWEVER...THE SWELL THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD MAINTAIN SEAS WELL ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 211513
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1013 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: INCREASED STRATOCU IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND DECREASED POPS.
ALSO INCREASED CLD CVR TONIGHT AS STRATOCU APPEARS TO BE HOLDING
ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT INDICATE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO HOLD ON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST ENHANCED IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
THESE CLOUDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE DOWNEAST AREAS.
DECIDED TO HANG ONTO MORE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH AND WEST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. CUT BACK ON THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
W/DOWNSLOPING TAKING HOLD. PRECIP CHCS WILL SLIP BACK TO 20% THIS
MORNING FOR THE NORTH AND WEST. THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE NON-EXISTENT AFTER 11AM.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE DIRECTION TURNS MORE WNW.
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND LLVL CAA BY LATE MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
GUSTS TO HIT 25-30 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

CARWRF TEMPERATURES MATCHING QUITE WELL THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED
SUIT INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOWS LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. HIGH PRES
RIDGING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. GMOS VALUES LOOKED
GOOD AND ALIGNED W/THE DAYCREW ASSESSMENT OF MID/UPPER 20S NORTH
AND WEST AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVES NORTHWARD. EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH POPS
INCREASING LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND SREF FOR POPS. A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM
USED FOR SKY AND QPF. THE GMOS WAS USED FOR WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG COAST BUT PRIMARY LOW
CENTER WILL TRACK TO WEST OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH GMOS. HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP
GRIDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED WIND GUST GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING WILL HANG ON THROUGH
MID MORNING AND THEN EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR. BGR AND BHB WILL
SEE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA OUT THROUGH 21Z FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS. WINDS ARE DECREASING BUT SEAS REMAIN IN THE SCA RANGE
AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DECREASE TODAY. THE INTRACOASTAL ZONE
WAS PULLED FROM THE SCA AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SHORT TERM:
FOR WIND GRIDS WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GFS40 OUT TO 00Z
TUESDAY THEN WILL TRANSITION TO THE GMOS WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
MODEL BLEND WIND SPEED IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY. FOR
WAVES WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH WNA/4 AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO BETTER FIT GMOS WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MWALKER
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MWALKER
MARINE...HEWITT/MWALKER/MIGNONE

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211501
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES ON MON...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PULLING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXIT
THE COAST SHORTLY. SATELLITE SHOWED LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS...WITH PATCHES OF THICKER HIGH
CLOUD STREAKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE 12Z RAOB WAS
DRY IN THE LOW LAYERS AT KGYX...BUT THE RAOBS FROM KCAR...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT KALB...SHOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH SUGGESTS BROKEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AS SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...PRES GRAD
WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL W-NW FLOW WILL DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
EFFECTS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
IN THE MTNS. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP THING PARTY-MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...IN THE MID-UPPR 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE CLOSER AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RAD COOLING...BUT AIRMASS REMAINS MILD...AND
ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE COOLER...THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP THE
AIR MASS ON MONDAY.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THE REGION OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY
     BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM WILL THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SUNDAY SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND SLOWLY RETREAT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIG AT KLEB WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO
MVFR TO IFR IN ANY SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...TREND OF WINDS AND SEAS IS DOWNWARD WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT DROPPED WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCA CRITERIA FOR WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
506 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
...THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
THEN A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...PRES GRAD WILL SLACKEN
AND WINDS WILL W-NW FLOW WILL DROP OFF. UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING IN THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP THING PARTY-MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...IN THE MID-UPPR 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE CLOSER AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RAD COOLING...BUT AIRMASS REMAINS MILD...AND
ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE COOLER...THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP THE
AIR MASS ON MONDAY.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THE REGION OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY
...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM WILL THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SUNDAY SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND SLOWLY RETREAT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIG AT KLEB WILL LIFT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO
MVFR TO IFR IN ANY SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXTENDED SCA THRU 11 AM...MAINLY DUE TO SWELL

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCA CRITERIA FOR WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCAR 210824
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
324 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.

MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT INDICATE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO HOLD ON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST ENHANCED IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
THESE CLOUDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE DOWNEAST AREAS.
DECIDED TO HANG ONTO MORE CLOUDS FOR THE NORTH AND WEST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. CUT BACK ON THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND COAST
W/DOWNSLOPING TAKING HOLD. PRECIP CHCS WILL SLIP BACK TO 20% THIS
MORNING FOR THE NORTH AND WEST. THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE NON-EXISTENT AFTER 11AM.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE DIRECTION TURNS MORE WNW.
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND LLVL CAA BY LATE MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
GUSTS TO HIT 25-30 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.

CARWRF TEMPERATURES MATCHING QUITE WELL THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED
SUIT INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOWS LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DOWNEAST AND THE COAST. HIGH PRES
RIDGING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. GMOS VALUES LOOKED
GOOD AND ALIGNED W/THE DAYCREW ASSESSMENT OF MID/UPPER 20S NORTH
AND WEST AND UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVES NORTHWARD. EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH POPS
INCREASING LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND SREF FOR POPS. A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM
USED FOR SKY AND QPF. THE GMOS WAS USED FOR WIND...TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG COAST BUT PRIMARY LOW
CENTER WILL TRACK TO WEST OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH GMOS. HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND POP
GRIDS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED WIND GUST GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING WILL HANG ON THROUGH
MID MORNING AND THEN EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR. BGR AND BHB WILL
SEE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA OUT THROUGH 16Z AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE
IN THE SCA RANGE ATTM(25KT/6FT) AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A WHILE THIS
MORNING. THE INTRACOASTAL ZONE WAS PULLED FROM THE SCA AS WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SHORT TERM:
FOR WIND GRIDS WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GFS40 OUT TO 00Z
TUESDAY THEN WILL TRANSITION TO THE GMOS WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
MODEL BLEND WIND SPEED IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY. FOR
WAVES WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH WNA/4 AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
TO BETTER FIT GMOS WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING
         FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE