000
FXUS63 KDLH 212119
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...EACH SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES. A DT/DPROG OF THE ECMWF AT 84 HOURS SHOWS THE LOW
MOVING A BIT QUICKER...INTO SOUTHEAST IA. A BLEND OF THE MODELS WAS
USED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOG HAS DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STATIONS STILL
REPORTING 4-5SM IN HAZE. OVERALL...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH
MORE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF SAWYER/PRICE/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. NAM FORECASTS SOUTHERLY 925MB WINDS OF
40-45KT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SURGING NORTH THROUGH MO/EASTERN
NE/EASTERN KS INTO IA THIS AFTERNOON. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES LATER TONIGHT OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WEST TOWARD PINE COUNTY WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS AREA. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

MODELS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PLACING THEIR HIGHEST QPF OVER
THE NORTH SHORE...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND PINE COUNTY.
THIS AREA UNDER DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN.  WE HAVE
HIGHEST POPS THERE FOR TOMORROW.

WE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INTO LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF
OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES. THE LOW LEVEL INVERTED SHARP SHARPENS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FGEN PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN...AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND 925MB TEMPS OF 3-7C ARE FORECAST OVER OUR
AREA.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THE INVERTED
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE TO THE WEST. WE KEYED OUR HIGHER POPS
ON THE INVERTED TROUGH...AND HAVE THEM LIKELY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT DIVES ESE TOWARD SOUTHWEST IA BY
12Z TUESDAY...THEN EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH
WEAKENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WE COULD BE IN FOR A
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE...BUT LEFT JUST A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ATTM.

.EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BRUSHED SMALL POPS FURTHER INTO WRN ZONES AND INCREASED TO MID/HIGH
CHC FOR ERN ZONES TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ALSO INCREASED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG WAA AND MDLS TRENDING WARMER.
THE GFS/EC STRUGGLING WITH THE STORM TRACK THROUGH LONG TERM AS A
DOUBLE BARREL LOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. THE INITIAL LOW WILL EXITS TO
THE NE WHILE AN ELONGATED MID LVL VORT/100 KT UPR LVL JET DIVES S
OVER THE DAKOTAS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS
THE ERN CUT LOW TRACKS NE OVER TORONTO/QUEBEC THROUGH 12Z THURS AS
THE SECONDARY WAVE DIGS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND DEEPENS INTO A CUT
OFF LOW AT THE BASE OF LK MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE
00Z ECM MERGES THE TWO VORTS INTO A BROAD SYSTEM OVER THE ERN GRT
LKS. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL STILL BE WORKED
OUT...BOTH MDLS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE FA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP
TUES NIGHT OVER NRN MN THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING GREATER QPF OR A
BAND OF SN ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 15-20 KT WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH 00-03Z. BY
06Z...A 40 KT LLJ AROUND 2 KFT WILL SPREAD LOW CLOUDS NWRD OVER
THE FA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WILL BECOME WDSPRD AFT 09Z...PERSISTING THROUGH END OF PERIOD. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUN...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM
KBRD TO KHIB. INTRODUCED LLWS INTO KDLH/KHIB TERMINALS...WHILE
EXPECTING SFC WINDS TO REMAIN HIGHER IN WRN LOCATIONS WHERE
GRADIENT IS BEST.

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  47  41  44 /  10  40  60  50
INL  30  46  28  41 /  10  10  10  50
BRD  35  49  37  47 /  10  30  50  60
HYR  34  50  42  51 /  10  40  30  30
ASX  37  50  43  49 /  10  40  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

MELDE/GRANING

000
FXUS63 KMPX 212100
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVANCING NORTH WITH DWPTS ACROSS W IA
INTO E NEB NOW INTO THE LOWER 40S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THEIR NWRD EXPANSION. POCKETS OF STRATUS TO OUR SOUTH WILL
EXPAND UNDER COVER OF DARKNESS AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.  CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY THICKEN ENUF LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME DRIZZLE. SHUD BE ENUF WIND
TO KEEP VISIBILITY FROM BEING SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT DID INTRODUCE
PATCHY FOG INTO FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...WIND..AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD
MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

SOME CONCERN WITH TOMORROWS TEMPERATURES WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. TRIMMMED THEM A BIT..BUT MID SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

UPSTREAM TROF NO MOVING ACROSS W MT INTO THE SW U.S. WILL BECOME A
BIT LESS DEFINED AS IT MOVES EAST AND STRONGER TROF BARRELS OFF
PACIFIC BEHIND IT. TROFFINESS...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONT MOVING INTO AREA WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THEN RATHER
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS E SODAK AND IOWA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
KEEP PRECIP AS ALL RAIN UNTIL A TRANSTION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
POSITION OF UPPER JET COMING AROUND BASE OF TROF WOULD PLACE S MN IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

ECMWF NOW LEANING MORE TOWARD GFS SOLUTION OF SECOND TROF DIVING OUT
OF CANADA AND ACROSS SW MN LATE WEDNESDAY...AND BECOMING QUITE
AGGRESSIVE ON QPF OUTPUT. FEEL QPF IS PROBABLY OVERDONE IN THAT
UPPER TROF WILL BE FIGHTING COLD ADVECTION...BUT UPPED POPS SOMEWHAT
FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

LATEST OBS SOUTH OF MPX CWA HAS NUMEROUS CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE LIFR
AREA WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN KS/NE MOVING N/NE. THIS WILL BE
THE SOURCE REGION FOR LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
MPX CWA WITH LIFR OR IFR CEILINGS/VSBY A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF TAF
SITES. EARLY TERM REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH EAU AS MVFR CEILINGS
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN IA...WHICH MAY KEEP EAU MVFR THIS
AFTN...WITH DECREASING VSBY/CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. LATEST GFS/NAM HAS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BELOW 90H WHICH MEANS LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING. DRIZZLE ALSO A GOOD BET AS LOWER
CEILINGS AND SUBTLE LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THESE LIFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU 15Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY FOR
AXN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE
LOWER CEILINGS. CEILINGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED AS PER
EARLIER OBS IN KS SOURCE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
JUST ABOVE MINIMUMS WITH CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT EXTREME FOR THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO. ..JLT..

.CWSU DISCUSSION...

JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER MSP. DO NOT EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS
UNTIL THIS EVENING. PARTS OF IA STILL FIGHTING DENSE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS... EXPECT THAT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO MSP VICINITY THIS
EVENING. AT LEAST IFR CIGS EXPECTED... POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS AND FOG
TOWARD MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY... AFTERNOON
CIGS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE 015-020 RANGE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING...A GUST OR TWO OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.  MORE SE THIS EVENING, AND NOT QUITE AS BREEZY
SUNDAY...AROUND 10 KTS. - KFM

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

BAP/JLT

000
FXUS63 KDLH 211819 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 15-20 KT WITH VFR CIGS THROUGH 00-03Z. BY
06Z...A 40 KT LLJ AROUND 2 KFT WILL SPREAD LOW CLOUDS NWRD OVER
THE FA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WILL BECOME WDSPRD AFT 09Z...PERSISTING THROUGH END OF PERIOD. A
FEW -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUN...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM
KBRD TO KHIB. INTRODUCED LLWS INTO KDLH/KHIB TERMINALS...WHILE
EXPECTING SFC WINDS TO REMAIN HIGHER IN WRN LOCATIONS WHERE
GRADIENT IS BEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
METARS...SATELLITE...AND WEBCAMS ALL SHOW FOG WAS LIFTING THIS
MORNING. THE VSBY HAS IMPROVED TO 2SM IN KPBH...TO 1.5SM IN
KCOQ...AND TO 0.5SM IN KMZH. REMAINING FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE INCREASED SKY COVER SOME TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CIRRUS MOVING IN. WE ALSO DROPPED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES.

WE ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AT THIS TIME...AN AREA OF SHALLOW FOG SURROUNDS AND COVERS PRICE
COUNTY. ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG...ACROSS OTHER AREAS SOUTH OF
DULUTH...ARE HAVING TROUBLE SPREADING OR BECOMING ESTABLISHED DUE
TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. A FOG ADVISORY RATHER THAN A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED SINCE THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOST FROST
ACCUMULATION IS RESTRICTED TO SUCH OBJECTS AS ELEVATED DECKS...
BRANCHES AND RAILINGS RATHER THAN ROADS...WALKS...OR EVEN BRIDGES.

DEEP RIDGING OF PACIFIC AIR...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL
MAINTAIN AN AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
THE WEST...OVER OUR AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK SOUTH FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WHERE A LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SITUATION COULD DEVELOP. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN
EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW A
LITTLE AND BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY.

EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THEN
DIVERGE. A COLD FRONT FROM MILLE LACS UP THROUGH DULUTH AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS SEEN IN THE WIND
FIELD...BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...TRIGGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LLJ
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO NW WISC. AFTER DISTURBANCE AND
DEPARTING JET CRUISE OFF INTO CANADA AND MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW...THE FRONT THEN MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WIND
FIELD BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LARGER
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
ACCORDINGLY...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THROUGH OUR NW ZONES.
THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON EVOLUTION...SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN
IN PRECIP FIELDS. NW WISC SHOULD DRY OUT FOR A TIME ON MONDAY WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK. GENERAL IDEAS HAVE THE GFS/SREF
BEING THE FASTEST AND THE FURTHEST NORTH...THE NAM AND ECMWF BEING
ON THE SLOWER SIDE...WITH THE GEM IN THE MIDDLE. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GEM...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING OF NOTE THAT THE 0Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP
AND COME FURTHER NORTH. THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH IS THAT THE PRECIP
WILL LINGER IN NW MINNESOTA ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTH AND SHOVES THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE AREA.
ON ITS HEELS IS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER THAT THE GFS MOVES THE BEST
FORCING SOUTH...THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH...WITH BOTH MODELS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SO WE HAVE REMOVED ANY SNOW MENTION AND
RAISED TEMPS ON TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH MID-DAY ON THANKSGIVING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
RESPOND QUICKLY AS THE UPPER JET BUILDS BACK NORTH OF THE BORDER.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  49  39  46 /  10  30  30  30
INL  31  46  29  43 /  10  30  10  40
BRD  36  51  37  47 /  10  20  30  40
HYR  36  52  40  49 /  10  30  30  30
ASX  37  51  41  48 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

MELDE/GRANING/GRANING

000
FXUS63 KMPX 211722
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1122 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SEEING FOGGY MORNING ACROSS ERN CWA THANKS TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND PROXIMITY SFC HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...WILL SEE YET ANOTHER BALMY MID TO LATE
NOVEMBER DAY. EXPECT FULL SUNSHINE...AND SRLY WINDS WILL HELP
USHER IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS YET AGAIN. MIXING DOWN TOOL TO H9
ON NAM/GFS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN 50S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TODAY. MAV
SEEMED TO HAVE BEST HANDEL ON HIGHS FOR TODAY BASED ON MIX DOWN
TOOL...SO WENT CLOSE TO IT FOR HIGHS. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
TO BE JUST EAST OF SOUTH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS NORTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE MAKE A RUN AT 60. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND SOME 30 KT WINDS GET DOWN TO ABOUT 925 MB...BUFKIT MIX
DOWN TOOL WOULD SUGGEST GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KTS OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AS LLJ
SLIDES OVER MN AND STRONG WAA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ENSUES...EXPECT MOST OF AREA TO BE OVC BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RATHER MILD EVENING SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...
SUGGESTING ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT. BASED ON 290K
SFC FROM NAM/GFS...NOT REALLY SEEING GOOD ADIABATIC OMEGA UNTIL
LATE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY WIS...SO CONTINUED TREND IN FORECAST OF
FAVORING ERN CWA FOR RAIN.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...BUT WITH ECMWF/NAM/GEM ALL SIMILAR IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THINGS SUN THRU TUES...STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THOSE
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PART OF FORECAST. GFS/SREF ARE FAST/NORTH
OUTLIERS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DPROG/DT FOR GFS DOES SHOW IT
TRENDING TOWARD SLOWER/MORE SRN ECMWF SOLN WITH TIME. SO WITH THAT
IN MIND...EXPECT COLD FRONT TO ENTER CWA SUNDAY...BUT WILL
STALL/WASH OUT AS MAIN UPPER FORCING HEADS TO HUDSON BAY AND IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING/CUTTING
OFF ACROSS NRN PLAINS MONDAY...QUICKLY TURNING COLD FRONT INTO A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
MN...HAVE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THERE. BY 00Z TUE...BOTH
ECMWF/GEM ALREADY STARTING TO FORM A CLOSE H5 LOW...WITH NAM DOING
SO BY 12Z TUE. AS THIS OCCURS CYCLOGENESIS STARTS IN THE
NE/KS/MO/IA AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WHATS LEFT OF FRONT BECOMING
MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS WRN MN. THIS WILL FAVOR PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE WRN HALF OF CWA MON/TUE AS H5 LOW SLOWS WHILE IN
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. OTHER BIG CHANGE CONTINUED BY THE ECMWF IN
ITS 21.00 RUN WAS FOR THIS TO BE A MUCH WARMER SYSTEM AS WELL...SO
RAISED TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 50S LIKELY HANGING AROUND TILL MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AND
LOWS TUES/WED ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS OF COURSE HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON P-TYPE AS NOW EXPECTING
THIS TO BE A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH MIXED PRECIP HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS FROM IA TO ERN WI...FINALLY
PULLING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REST OF FORECAST FROM
THANKSGIVING ON STILL LOOKS GOOD...AS SFC RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO A
DRY/COOL TURKEY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

LATEST OBS SOUTH OF MPX CWA HAS NUMEROUS CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE LIFR
AREA WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN KS/NE MOVING N/NE. THIS WILL BE
THE SOURCE REGION FOR LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
MPX CWA WITH LIFR OR IFR CEILINGS/VSBY A GOOD BET FOR MOST OF TAF
SITES. EARLY TERM REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH EAU AS MVFR CEILINGS
MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN IA...WHICH MAY KEEP EAU MVFR THIS
AFTN...WITH DECREASING VSBY/CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. LATEST GFS/NAM HAS
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BELOW 90H WHICH MEANS LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING. DRIZZLE ALSO A GOOD BET AS LOWER
CEILINGS AND SUBTLE LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THESE LIFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU 15Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE...ESPECIALLY FOR
AXN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE
LOWER CEILINGS. CEILINGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED AS PER
EARLIER OBS IN KS SOURCE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
JUST ABOVE MINIMUMS WITH CONFIDENCE LEVEL NOT EXTREME FOR THIS
TYPE OF SCENARIO. ..JLT..

.CWSU DISCUSSION...

JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER MSP. DO NOT EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS
UNTIL THIS EVENING. PARTS OF IA STILL FIGHTING DENSE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS... EXPECT THAT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO MSP VICINITY THIS
EVENING. AT LEAST IFR CIGS EXPECTED... POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS AND FOG
TOWARD MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY... AFTERNOON
CIGS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE 015-020 RANGE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING...A GUST OR TWO OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.  MORE SE THIS EVENING, AND NOT QUITE AS BREEZY
SUNDAY...AROUND 10 KTS. - KFM

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

MPG/JLT

000
FXUS63 KDLH 211612
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1012 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
METARS...SATELLITE...AND WEBCAMS ALL SHOW FOG WAS LIFTING THIS
MORNING. THE VSBY HAS IMPROVED TO 2SM IN KPBH...TO 1.5SM IN
KCOQ...AND TO 0.5SM IN KMZH. REMAINING FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE INCREASED SKY COVER SOME TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CIRRUS MOVING IN. WE ALSO DROPPED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES.

WE ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF SET...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 15-16Z
WITH IFR/LIFR AT KHIB WITH FZFG BASED ON LATEST OBS...STUBBORN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE..AND AS PER NAM/RUC LOW LEVEL
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEF PROG. KHYR IS ON THE BORDER OF A BANK OF
LIFR FOG PUSHING NORTH. KDLH MAY SEE SOME FOG AS WELL WITH MVFR
VSBYS BEFORE 15Z BEFORE THIN CIRRUS MOVES IN. ANTICIPATE ALL TAF
SITES TO BE VFR AFTER 16Z WITH CIRRUS AND INCREASING WINDS.

SSE WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH AND 992 MB LOW THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
MANITOBA. MIXING LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP...BUT WE DO EXPECT SOME
GUSTS IN THE WESTERN TERMINALS ESPECIALLY.

LATE TONIGHT...WAA REGIME WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS...MAINLY
AFTER 9Z. MODELS DO TRY TO BREAK OUT PRECIP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AT KHYR...BUT SLIGHTLY DEEPER SATURATION WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z.

THIS TAF SET HAS INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KHYR ONLY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT SHEAR SHOULD
BE MAINLY SPEED SHEAR AT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS AT KHYR.
FUTURE TAF SETS CAN MONITOR THIS TREND TO SEE IF IT WILL BE ADDED ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AT THIS TIME...AN AREA OF SHALLOW FOG SURROUNDS AND COVERS PRICE
COUNTY. ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG...ACROSS OTHER AREAS SOUTH OF
DULUTH...ARE HAVING TROUBLE SPREADING OR BECOMING ESTABLISHED DUE
TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. A FOG ADVISORY RATHER THAN A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED SINCE THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOST FROST
ACCUMULATION IS RESTRICTED TO SUCH OBJECTS AS ELEVATED DECKS...
BRANCHES AND RAILINGS RATHER THAN ROADS...WALKS...OR EVEN BRIDGES.

DEEP RIDGING OF PACIFIC AIR...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL
MAINTAIN AN AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
THE WEST...OVER OUR AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK SOUTH FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WHERE A LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SITUATION COULD DEVELOP. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN
EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW A
LITTLE AND BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY.

EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THEN
DIVERGE. A COLD FRONT FROM MILLE LACS UP THROUGH DULUTH AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS SEEN IN THE WIND
FIELD...BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...TRIGGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LLJ
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO NW WISC. AFTER DISTURBANCE AND
DEPARTING JET CRUISE OFF INTO CANADA AND MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW...THE FRONT THEN MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WIND
FIELD BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LARGER
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
ACCORDINGLY...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THROUGH OUR NW ZONES.
THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON EVOLUTION...SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN
IN PRECIP FIELDS. NW WISC SHOULD DRY OUT FOR A TIME ON MONDAY WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK. GENERAL IDEAS HAVE THE GFS/SREF
BEING THE FASTEST AND THE FURTHEST NORTH...THE NAM AND ECMWF BEING
ON THE SLOWER SIDE...WITH THE GEM IN THE MIDDLE. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GEM...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING OF NOTE THAT THE 0Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP
AND COME FURTHER NORTH. THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH IS THAT THE PRECIP
WILL LINGER IN NW MINNESOTA ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTH AND SHOVES THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE AREA.
ON ITS HEELS IS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER THAT THE GFS MOVES THE BEST
FORCING SOUTH...THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH...WITH BOTH MODELS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SO WE HAVE REMOVED ANY SNOW MENTION AND
RAISED TEMPS ON TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH MID-DAY ON THANKSGIVING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
RESPOND QUICKLY AS THE UPPER JET BUILDS BACK NORTH OF THE BORDER.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  36  49  39 /   0  10  30  30
INL  49  31  46  29 /   0  10  30  10
BRD  50  36  51  37 /   0  10  20  30
HYR  51  36  52  40 /   0  10  30  30
ASX  52  37  51  41 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

MELDE/EOM/DONOFRIO

000
FXUS63 KMPX 211203
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
603 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...

ADDED 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEEING FOGGY MORNING ACROSS ERN CWA THANKS TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND PROXIMITY SFC HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...WILL SEE YET ANOTHER BALMY MID TO LATE
NOVEMBER DAY. EXPECT FULL SUNSHINE...AND SRLY WINDS WILL HELP
USHER IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS YET AGAIN. MIXING DOWN TOOL TO H9
ON NAM/GFS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN 50S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TODAY. MAV
SEEMED TO HAVE BEST HANDEL ON HIGHS FOR TODAY BASED ON MIX DOWN
TOOL...SO WENT CLOSE TO IT FOR HIGHS. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
TO BE JUST EAST OF SOUTH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS NORTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE MAKE A RUN AT 60. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND SOME 30 KT WINDS GET DOWN TO ABOUT 925 MB...BUFKIT MIX
DOWN TOOL WOULD SUGGEST GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KTS OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AS LLJ
SLIDES OVER MN AND STRONG WAA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ENSUES...EXPECT MOST OF AREA TO BE OVC BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RATHER MILD EVENING SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...
SUGGESTING ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT. BASED ON 290K
SFC FROM NAM/GFS...NOT REALLY SEEING GOOD ADIABATIC OMEGA UNTIL
LATE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY WIS...SO CONTINUED TREND IN FORECAST OF
FAVORING ERN CWA FOR RAIN.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...BUT WITH ECMWF/NAM/GEM ALL SIMILAR IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THINGS SUN THRU TUES...STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THOSE
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PART OF FORECAST. GFS/SREF ARE FAST/NORTH
OUTLIERS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DPROG/DT FOR GFS DOES SHOW IT
TRENDING TOWARD SLOWER/MORE SRN ECMWF SOLN WITH TIME. SO WITH THAT
IN MIND...EXPECT COLD FRONT TO ENTER CWA SUNDAY...BUT WILL
STALL/WASH OUT AS MAIN UPPER FORCING HEADS TO HUDSON BAY AND IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING/CUTTING
OFF ACROSS NRN PLAINS MONDAY...QUICKLY TURNING COLD FRONT INTO A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
MN...HAVE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THERE. BY 00Z TUE...BOTH
ECMWF/GEM ALREADY STARTING TO FORM A CLOSE H5 LOW...WITH NAM DOING
SO BY 12Z TUE. AS THIS OCCURS CYCLOGENESIS STARTS IN THE
NE/KS/MO/IA AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WHATS LEFT OF FRONT BECOMING
MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS WRN MN. THIS WILL FAVOR PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE WRN HALF OF CWA MON/TUE AS H5 LOW SLOWS WHILE IN
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. OTHER BIG CHANGE CONTINUED BY THE ECMWF IN
ITS 21.00 RUN WAS FOR THIS TO BE A MUCH WARMER SYSTEM AS WELL...SO
RAISED TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 50S LIKELY HANGING AROUND TILL MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AND
LOWS TUES/WED ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS OF COURSE HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON P-TYPE AS NOW EXPECTING
THIS TO BE A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH MIXED PRECIP HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS FROM IA TO ERN WI...FINALLY
PULLING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REST OF FORECAST FROM
THANKSGIVING ON STILL LOOKS GOOD...AS SFC RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO A
DRY/COOL TURKEY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIG AND VSBYS CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER
WESTERN WI THIS MORNING...WHICH FORMED IN THE HIGH PRES RDG UNDER
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. MVFR TO OCNL IFR VSBYS WERE
COMMON OVER THE MN TAF SITES. EXPECT THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO CAUSE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS OVER THE MN TAF SITES BY
16Z...BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND STATUS WILL HOLD VSBYS DOWN AT LEAST
INTO MVFR UNTIL 18Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND JUST SCT
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AN INCREASING
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND TROUGH WILL CAUSE
AN EXPANSION OF MVFR CIGS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME LIFT WILL ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF DRIZZLE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING RISK OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS INTO AT LEAST
THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD..ESPECIALLY EAST.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GOODHUE.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

&&

$$

MPG/JPR

000
FXUS63 KDLH 211153 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
553 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF SET...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 15-16Z
WITH IFR/LIFR AT KHIB WITH FZFG BASED ON LATEST OBS...STUBBORN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE..AND AS PER NAM/RUC LOW LEVEL
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEF PROG. KHYR IS ON THE BORDER OF A BANK OF
LIFR FOG PUSHING NORTH. KDLH MAY SEE SOME FOG AS WELL WITH MVFR
VSBYS BEFORE 15Z BEFORE THIN CIRRUS MOVES IN. ANTICIPATE ALL TAF
SITES TO BE VFR AFTER 16Z WITH CIRRUS AND INCREASING WINDS.

SSE WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH AND 992 MB LOW THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
MANITOBA. MIXING LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP...BUT WE DO EXPECT SOME
GUSTS IN THE WESTERN TERMINALS ESPECIALLY.

LATE TONIGHT...WAA REGIME WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS...MAINLY
AFTER 9Z. MODELS DO TRY TO BREAK OUT PRECIP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AT KHYR...BUT SLIGHTLY DEEPER SATURATION WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z.

THIS TAF SET HAS INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KHYR ONLY. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT SHEAR SHOULD
BE MAINLY SPEED SHEAR AT OUR WESTERN TAF SITES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS AT KHYR.
FUTURE TAF SETS CAN MONITOR THIS TREND TO SEE IF IT WILL BE ADDED ELSEHWERE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

DISCUSSION...
AT THIS TIME...AN AREA OF SHALLOW FOG SURROUNDS AND COVERS PRICE
COUNTY. ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG...ACROSS OTHER AREAS SOUTH OF
DULUTH...ARE HAVING TROUBLE SPREADING OR BECOMING ESTABLISHED DUE
TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. A FOG ADVISORY RATHER THAN A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED SINCE THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOST FROST
ACCUMULATION IS RESTRICTED TO SUCH OBJECTS AS ELEVATED DECKS...
BRANCHES AND RAILINGS RATHER THAN ROADS...WALKS...OR EVEN BRIDGES.

DEEP RIDGING OF PACIFIC AIR...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL
MAINTAIN AN AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
THE WEST...OVER OUR AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK SOUTH FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WHERE A LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SITUATION COULD DEVELOP. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN
IMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW A
LITTLE AND BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY.

EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THEN
DIVERGE. A COLD FRONT FROM MILLE LACS UP THROUGH DULUTH AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS SEEN IN THE WIND
FIELD...BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...TRIGGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LLJ
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO NW WISC. AFTER DISTURBANCE AND
DEPARTING JET CRUISE OFF INTO CANADA AND MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW...THE FRONT THEN MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WIND
FIELD BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LARGER
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
ACCORDINGLY...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THROUGH OUR NW ZONES.
THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON EVOLUTION...SOME SMALL DIFERENCES ARE SEEN
IN PRECIP FIELDS. NW WISC SHOULD DRY OUT FOR A TIME ON MONDAY WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK. GENEARL IDEAS HAVE THE GFS/SREF
BEING THE FASTEST AND THE FURTHEST NORTH...THE NAM AND ECMWF BEING
ON THE SLOWER SIDE...WITH THE GEM IN THE MIDDLE. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GEM...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING OF NOTE THAT THE 0Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP
AND COME FURTHER NORTH. THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH IS THAT THE PRECIP
WIL LINGER IN NW MINNESOTA ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTH AND SHOVES THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE AREA.
ON ITS HEELS IS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER THAT THE GFS MOVES THE BEST
FORCING SOUTH...THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH...WITH BOTH MODELS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SO WE HAVE REMOVED ANY SNOW MENTION AND
RAISED TEMPS ON TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH MID-DAY ON THANKSGIVING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
RESPOND QUICKLY AS THE UPPER JET BUILDS BACK NORTH OF THE BORDER.



&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  36  49  39 /   0  10  30  30
INL  51  31  46  29 /   0  10  30  10
BRD  53  36  51  37 /   0  10  20  30
HYR  54  36  52  40 /   0  10  30  30
ASX  53  37  51  41 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM: EOM
LONG TERM/AVIATION: DONOFRIO

000
FXUS63 KMPX 211004
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SEEING FOGGY MORNING ACROSS ERN CWA THANKS TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND PROXIMITY SFC HIGH JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...WILL SEE YET ANOTHER BALMY MID TO LATE
NOVEMBER DAY. EXPECT FULL SUNSHINE...AND SRLY WINDS WILL HELP
USHER IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS YET AGAIN. MIXING DOWN TOOL TO H9
ON NAM/GFS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN 50S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TODAY. MAV
SEEMED TO HAVE BEST HANDEL ON HIGHS FOR TODAY BASED ON MIX DOWN
TOOL...SO WENT CLOSE TO IT FOR HIGHS. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
TO BE JUST EAST OF SOUTH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DOWNSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS NORTH OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE MAKE A RUN AT 60. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND SOME 30 KT WINDS GET DOWN TO ABOUT 925 MB...BUFKIT MIX
DOWN TOOL WOULD SUGGEST GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KTS OUT THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT AS LLJ
SLIDES OVER MN AND STRONG WAA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ENSUES...EXPECT MOST OF AREA TO BE OVC BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A RATHER MILD EVENING SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LACKING...
SUGGESTING ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT. BASED ON 290K
SFC FROM NAM/GFS...NOT REALLY SEEING GOOD ADIABATIC OMEGA UNTIL
LATE MORNING ACROSS MAINLY WIS...SO CONTINUED TREND IN FORECAST OF
FAVORING ERN CWA FOR RAIN.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS...BUT WITH ECMWF/NAM/GEM ALL SIMILAR IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THINGS SUN THRU TUES...STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THOSE
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PART OF FORECAST. GFS/SREF ARE FAST/NORTH
OUTLIERS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DPROG/DT FOR GFS DOES SHOW IT
TRENDING TOWARD SLOWER/MORE SRN ECMWF SOLN WITH TIME. SO WITH THAT
IN MIND...EXPECT COLD FRONT TO ENTER CWA SUNDAY...BUT WILL
STALL/WASH OUT AS MAIN UPPER FORCING HEADS TO HUDSON BAY AND IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EAST. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING/CUTTING
OFF ACROSS NRN PLAINS MONDAY...QUICKLY TURNING COLD FRONT INTO A
WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
MN...HAVE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THERE. BY 00Z TUE...BOTH
ECMWF/GEM ALREADY STARTING TO FORM A CLOSE H5 LOW...WITH NAM DOING
SO BY 12Z TUE. AS THIS OCCURS CYCLOGENESIS STARTS IN THE
NE/KS/MO/IA AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WHATS LEFT OF FRONT BECOMING
MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS WRN MN. THIS WILL FAVOR PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE WRN HALF OF CWA MON/TUE AS H5 LOW SLOWS WHILE IN
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. OTHER BIG CHANGE CONTINUED BY THE ECMWF IN
ITS 21.00 RUN WAS FOR THIS TO BE A MUCH WARMER SYSTEM AS WELL...SO
RAISED TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 50S LIKELY HANGING AROUND TILL MONDAY...WITH HIGHS AND
LOWS TUES/WED ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THIS OF COURSE HAS LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON P-TYPE AS NOW EXPECTING
THIS TO BE A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT...WITH MIXED PRECIP HOLDING OFF
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS FROM IA TO ERN WI...FINALLY
PULLING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. REST OF FORECAST FROM
THANKSGIVING ON STILL LOOKS GOOD...AS SFC RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO A
DRY/COOL TURKEY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

EXPECTING IFR/LIFR CIG/FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEAU/KRNH AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z SAT.  OTHER MVFR VSBY/FOG IN THE KSTC/KMSP REGION.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS SFC RDG
MOVES EAST AND GRADIENT DEVELOPS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS.  THIS SHOULD INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INTO THE GUSTY CATEGORY OVER MN FA...DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z SAT.
THEN CIRRUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AND THICKEN DURING
THE DAY.  GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA SAT
EVENING.  MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DEVELOPING STRATUS SATURDAY
NIGHT.  TIMING IN QUESTION AGAIN WITH THE NAM_WRF PROBABLY A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS THIS RUN.  WILL HINT AT SOME SCT015 LIFTING INTO
THE KRWF/KMSP THROUGH 05Z SUN...AND THEN BKN015 AT KMSP AFTER 09Z.



&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GOODHUE.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
     CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

&&

$$

MPG/DWE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 210938
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AT THIS TIME...AN AREA OF SHALLOW FOG SURROUNDS AND COVERS PRICE
COUNTY. ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG...ACROSS OTHER AREAS SOUTH OF
DULUTH...ARE HAVING TROUBLE SPREADING OR BECOMING ESTABLISHED DUE
TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. A FOG ADVISORY RATHER THAN A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED SINCE THE GROUND IS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOST FROST
ACCUMULATION IS RESTRICTED TO SUCH OBJECTS AS ELEVATED DECKS...
BRANCHES AND RAILINGS RATHER THAN ROADS...WALKS...OR EVEN BRIDGES.

DEEP RIDGING OF PACIFIC AIR...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL
MAINTAIN AN AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
THE WEST...OVER OUR AREA...WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK SOUTH FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WHERE A LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SITUATION COULD DEVELOP. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN
IMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW A
LITTLE AND BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THEN
DIVERGE. A COLD FRONT FROM MILLE LACS UP THROUGH DULUTH AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS SEEN IN THE WIND
FIELD...BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...TRIGGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LLJ
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO NW WISC. AFTER DISTURBANCE AND
DEPARTING JET CRUISE OFF INTO CANADA AND MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW...THE FRONT THEN MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS WIND
FIELD BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LARGER
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
ACCORDINGLY...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THROUGH OUR NW ZONES.
THOUGH MODELS AGREE ON EVOLUTION...SOME SMALL DIFERENCES ARE SEEN
IN PRECIP FIELDS. NW WISC SHOULD DRY OUT FOR A TIME ON MONDAY WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK. GENEARL IDEAS HAVE THE GFS/SREF
BEING THE FASTEST AND THE FURTHEST NORTH...THE NAM AND ECMWF BEING
ON THE SLOWER SIDE...WITH THE GEM IN THE MIDDLE. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO
GEM...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING OF NOTE THAT THE 0Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP
AND COME FURTHER NORTH. THE GENERAL IDEA THOUGH IS THAT THE PRECIP
WIL LINGER IN NW MINNESOTA ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTH AND SHOVES THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE AREA.
ON ITS HEELS IS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER THAT THE GFS MOVES THE BEST
FORCING SOUTH...THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH...WITH BOTH MODELS PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH. TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SO WE HAVE REMOVED ANY SNOW MENTION AND
RAISED TEMPS ON TUESDAY. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH MID-DAY ON THANKSGIVING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
RESPOND QUICKLY AS THE UPPER JET BUILDS BACK NORTH OF THE BORDER.

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KBRD WHERE FOG AND MVFR VSBYS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL 15Z AND KHIB WITH IFR AND FZFG.  KHYR IS ON THE BORDER
OF MVFR VSBYS AND FOG. EXPECT KHYR TO DIP TO IFR FROM 09-12Z WITH
DENSE FOG EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH NW WI. KDLH MAY SEE SOME FOG
AS WELL WITH MVFR VSBYS BEFORE 15Z BEFORE CIRRUS MOVES IN.
ANTICIPATE ALL TAF SITES TO BE VFR AFTER 15-16Z WITH CIRRUS AND
INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  36  49  39 /   0  10  30  30
INL  51  31  46  29 /   0  10  30  10
BRD  53  36  51  37 /   0  10  20  30
HYR  54  36  52  40 /   0  10  30  30
ASX  53  37  51  41 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

EOM/DONOFRIO

000
FXUS63 KDLH 210520
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY WI UNTIL
15Z SATURDAY. VSBYS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 1/4 MI OR LESS AND
NO REAL IMPROVEMENT SEEN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KBRD WHERE FOG AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL 15Z. KHYR IS ON THE BORDER OF MVFR VSBYS AND FOG. EXPECT
KHYR TO DIP TO IFR FROM 08-12Z WITH DENSE FOG JUST TO THE E AND
SE. KDLH/KHIB MAY SEE SOME FOG AS WELL WITH MVFR VSBYS BEFORE 15Z.
ANTICIPATE ALL TAF SITES TO BE VFR AFTER 15-16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

UPDATE...SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD ATTM. FOG IS FORMING IN
NW WI...MAINLY SE OF HIGHWAY 63. SOME FOG ALSO FORMING IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION OVER TO NORTHERN LAKE MILLE LACS. HAVE ADDED
FOG WORDING IN THESE AREAS. PREVIOUS MIN TEMP FORECAST RANGES
ALREADY BEATEN IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
CI SHIELD ATTEMPTING TO RIDE THE RIDGE INTO THE FA FROM THE W.
THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH WAA...MAY PRECLUDE FOG FROM BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT THE FOG FORMATION FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING/MOIST GROUND...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI...WORTHY OF MVFR/IFR
VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE. WAA FROM THE W AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT MAY BE TOUGHER TO FORM FOG AT KINL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

CORRECTED FOR TYPO ERRORS...

DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITHIN THE MID LVL FLOW WILL
BRING CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FOG TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAL
COVERAGE/DURATION ACROSS NW WISC WHERE LONGER DECOUPLED BDRY LYR
WILL EXIST. USED AREAS OF FOG TERMINOLOGY IN ERN CWA AND PATCHY
ELSEWHERE. LATEST FCST OF 925 WINDS SUGGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME
WILL BEGIN WEST OF A CDD-DLH- HINCKLEY LINE AFTER 6Z. HOPEFULLY
THIS MAY MITIGATE EXTENT OF FOG OVER WRN CWA. AS IS THE CASE WITH
MOST FOG POTENTIAL FORECASTS...LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ABOVE NORM TEMPS. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS LOCATED WEST
OF CWA SATURDAY...WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXISTING FCST HAD GOOD SOLUTION REGARDING TIMING OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND POPS. DID NOT CHANGE ALIGNMENT
OF POP GRADIENT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH TREND IS FOR HIGHER POPS TO BE
OVER NW WISC SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ZONE OF BEST LOW LEVEL THETAE
AXIS. SFC BDRY MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY GETS SOMEWHAT WASHED
OUT IN THE LOW LVL WIND FIELD BUT MAINTAINS WELL DEFINED SIGNAL IN
LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
WILL BE LIMITED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUDS BUT NOT A
LOT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. NAM/EC/GEM FAVOR NWRN PART OF CWA FOR
HIGHER POPS.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

WE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM KS...NORTHEAST TOWARD IA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ALSO STRENGTHENING AS IT
NEARS MB/OT. THESE UPPER WAVES WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE IS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS
WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL. WE WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
SEVERAL OF THE PERIODS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN COULD VERY WELL OCCUR IF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN A
BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THOSE DETAILS WILL BE
WORKED OUT AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A HEAVY PRECIP MAKER.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG AND SOME STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY KEEP
THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE FOG AND STRATUS IN ALL THE TAF SITES...EITHER AS A
PREDOMINATE ELEMENT...OR AS A TEMPORARY CONDITION. A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY...SO THE FOG WILL BURN
OFF QUICKER THAN IT DID TODAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  49  36  48 /   0   0  20  40
INL  17  48  33  45 /   0   0  20  20
BRD  24  52  36  47 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  23  51  40  48 /   0   0  20  30
ASX  25  52  39  49 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

GSF

000
FXUS63 KMPX 210457 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1059 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY WC WI
DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKY. SHOULD SEE FOG BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
GRADIENT BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA AND SFC RDG EXITS THE REGION.
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADV THROUGH 16Z SAT MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

EXPECTING IFR/LIFR CIG/FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEAU/KRNH AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z SAT.  OTHER MVFR VSBY/FOG IN THE KSTC/KMSP REGION.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS SFC RDG
MOVES EAST AND GRADIENT DEVELOPS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS.  THIS SHOULD INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INTO THE GUSTY CATEGORY OVER MN FA...DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z SAT.
THEN CIRRUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AND THICKEN DURING
THE DAY.  GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA SAT
EVENING.  MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DEVELOPING STRATUS SATURDAY
NIGHT.  TIMING IN QUESTION AGAIN WITH THE NAM_WRF PROBABLY A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS THIS RUN.  WILL HINT AT SOME SCT015 LIFTING INTO
THE KRWF/KMSP THROUGH 05Z SUN...AND THEN BKN015 AT KMSP AFTER 09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOG...THIS
TIME IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA. METARS STILL SHOWING SOME HZ IN
THE AIR FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA ON EAST WITH MID CLOUDS ON
THEIR WAY OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER.

MAX TEMPS TODAY REACHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIRMASS WARMING TOMORROW IN ESTABLISHED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL BE ADD A FEW MORE
DEGREES.  A BIT BREEZY WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH 850 MB WINDS UP INTO
THE 40 KNOT RANGE.

VIGOROUS TROUGH COMING ONSHORE ONTO WEST COAST WITH 12Z 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS IN 100 METER RANGE.  THIS FEATURE GETS DAMPENED OUT A
BIT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH STRONGER TROUGH COMING IN
BEHIND IT. THE CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IS FOR STRATUS TO
IMPACT AREA IN CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW.  EXPANDED AREA OF DRIZZLE
NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS
JUST A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREA STILL
GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP.

SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH ECMWF
BIT SLOWER WITH SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ON DEEP UPPER LOW.
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. MAY BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR VICINITY UPPER LOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX...BASED ON GFS
TIMING. ENUF COLD AIR IN PLACE BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WED FOR ANY
PCPN TO BE -SN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THURSDAY WITH
COOL..CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GOODHUE.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
     DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

&&

$$

DWE/MTF

000
FXUS63 KMPX 210359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
959 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY WC WI
DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKY. SHOULD SEE FOG BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
GRADIENT BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA AND SFC RDG EXITS THE REGION.
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADV THROUGH 16Z SAT MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY AIR
ADVECTED AND MIXED INTO WRN MN TODAY...BUT STILL AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI...ESPECIALLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LONG NIGHTS. THIS REGIME IN PLACE IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING OVER CTRL MN...WHERE DENSE FOG OCCURRED.
THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE ALSO FAVORS DENSE FOG. SO HAVE ADDED IN
MORE FOG ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI TAF SITES. COULD VERY WELL BE
VLIFR VISBYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT KEAU AND POSSIBLY AT KRNH...AND
LASTING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z SAT MORNING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY KMSP IS
MOST FAVORED TO ONLY SEE MVFR VISBYS...BUT SATELLITE AIRPORTS
SHOULD FLIRT WITH IFR VISBYS FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. SRLY WINDS TO
BEGIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN
WRN MN. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS LIKELY AT TIMES AT KAXN AND KRWF
DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 537 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOG...THIS
TIME IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA. METARS STILL SHOWING SOME HZ IN
THE AIR FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA ON EAST WITH MID CLOUDS ON
THEIR WAY OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER.

MAX TEMPS TODAY REACHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIRMASS WARMING TOMORROW IN ESTABLISHED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL BE ADD A FEW MORE
DEGREES.  A BIT BREEZY WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH 850 MB WINDS UP INTO
THE 40 KNOT RANGE.

VIGOROUS TROUGH COMING ONSHORE ONTO WEST COAST WITH 12Z 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS IN 100 METER RANGE.  THIS FEATURE GETS DAMPENED OUT A
BIT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH STRONGER TROUGH COMING IN
BEHIND IT. THE CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IS FOR STRATUS TO
IMPACT AREA IN CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW.  EXPANDED AREA OF DRIZZLE
NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS
JUST A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREA STILL
GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP.

SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH ECMWF
BIT SLOWER WITH SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ON DEEP UPPER LOW.
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. MAY BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR VICINITY UPPER LOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX...BASED ON GFS
TIMING. ENUF COLD AIR IN PLACE BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WED FOR ANY
PCPN TO BE -SN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THURSDAY WITH
COOL..CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GOODHUE.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
     DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

&&

$$

DWE/MTF

000
FXUS63 KDLH 210224
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
824 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD ATTM. FOG IS FORMING IN
NW WI...MAINLY SE OF HIGHWAY 63. SOME FOG ALSO FORMING IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION OVER TO NORTHERN LAKE MILLE LACS. HAVE ADDED
FOG WORDING IN THESE AREAS. PREVIOUS MIN TEMP FORECAST RANGES
ALREADY BEATEN IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND HAVE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.
CI SHIELD ATTEMPTING TO RIDE THE RIDGE INTO THE FA FROM THE W.
THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH WAA...MAY PRECLUDE FOG FROM BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
MAINLY VFR CIGS...BUT THE FOG FORMATION FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING/MOIST GROUND...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI...WORTHY OF MVFR/IFR
VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE. WAA FROM THE W AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT MAY BE TOUGHER TO FORM FOG AT KINL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

.CORRECTED FOR TYPO ERRORS...

DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITHIN THE MID LVL FLOW WILL
BRING CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FOG TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAL
COVERAGE/DURATION ACROSS NW WISC WHERE LONGER DECOUPLED BDRY LYR
WILL EXIST. USED AREAS OF FOG TERMINOLOGY IN ERN CWA AND PATCHY
ELSEWHERE. LATEST FCST OF 925 WINDS SUGGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME
WILL BEGIN WEST OF A CDD-DLH- HINCKLEY LINE AFTER 6Z. HOPEFULLY
THIS MAY MITIGATE EXTENT OF FOG OVER WRN CWA. AS IS THE CASE WITH
MOST FOG POTENTIAL FORECASTS...LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ABOVE NORM TEMPS. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS LOCATED WEST
OF CWA SATURDAY...WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXISTING FCST HAD GOOD SOLUTION REGARDING TIMING OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND POPS. DID NOT CHANGE ALIGNMENT
OF POP GRADIENT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH TREND IS FOR HIGHER POPS TO BE
OVER NW WISC SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ZONE OF BEST LOW LEVEL THETAE
AXIS. SFC BDRY MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY GETS SOMEWHAT WASHED
OUT IN THE LOW LVL WIND FIELD BUT MAINTAINS WELL DEFINED SIGNAL IN
LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
WILL BE LIMITED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUDS BUT NOT A
LOT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. NAM/EC/GEM FAVOR NWRN PART OF CWA FOR
HIGHER POPS.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

WE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM KS...NORTHEAST TOWARD IA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ALSO STRENGTHENING AS IT
NEARS MB/OT. THESE UPPER WAVES WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE IS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS
WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL. WE WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
SEVERAL OF THE PERIODS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN COULD VERY WELL OCCUR IF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN A
BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THOSE DETAILS WILL BE
WORKED OUT AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A HEAVY PRECIP MAKER.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG AND SOME STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY KEEP
THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE FOG AND STRATUS IN ALL THE TAF SITES...EITHER AS A
PREDOMINATE ELEMENT...OR AS A TEMPORARY CONDITION. A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY...SO THE FOG WILL BURN
OFF QUICKER THAN IT DID TODAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  49  36  48 /   0   0  20  40
INL  23  48  33  45 /   0   0  20  20
BRD  26  52  36  47 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  23  51  40  48 /   0   0  20  30
ASX  26  52  39  49 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

GSF/GSF/GSF

000
FXUS63 KMPX 202337
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
537 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOG...THIS
TIME IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA. METARS STILL SHOWING SOME HZ IN
THE AIR FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA ON EAST WITH MID CLOUDS ON
THEIR WAY OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER.

MAX TEMPS TODAY REACHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIRMASS WARMING TOMORROW IN ESTABLISHED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL BE ADD A FEW MORE
DEGREES.  A BIT BREEZY WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH 850 MB WINDS UP INTO
THE 40 KNOT RANGE.

VIGOROUS TROUGH COMING ONSHORE ONTO WEST COAST WITH 12Z 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS IN 100 METER RANGE.  THIS FEATURE GETS DAMPENED OUT A
BIT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH STRONGER TROUGH COMING IN
BEHIND IT. THE CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IS FOR STRATUS TO
IMPACT AREA IN CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW.  EXPANDED AREA OF DRIZZLE
NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS
JUST A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREA STILL
GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP.

SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH ECMWF
BIT SLOWER WITH SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ON DEEP UPPER LOW.
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. MAY BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR VICINITY UPPER LOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX...BASED ON GFS
TIMING. ENUF COLD AIR IN PLACE BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WED FOR ANY
PCPN TO BE -SN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THURSDAY WITH
COOL..CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY AIR
ADVECTED AND MIXED INTO WRN MN TODAY...BUT STILL AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI...ESPECIALLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LONG NIGHTS. THIS REGIME IN PLACE IS
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING OVER CTRL MN...WHERE DENSE FOG OCCURRED.
THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE ALSO FAVORS DENSE FOG. SO HAVE ADDED IN
MORE FOG ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI TAF SITES. COULD VERY WELL BE
VLIFR VISBYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT KEAU AND POSSIBLY AT KRNH...AND
LASTING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z SAT MORNING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY KMSP IS
MOST FAVORED TO ONLY SEE MVFR VISBYS...BUT SATELLITE AIRPORTS
SHOULD FLIRT WITH IFR VISBYS FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. SRLY WINDS TO
BEGIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN
WRN MN. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS LIKELY AT TIMES AT KAXN AND KRWF
DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

BAP/MTF

000
FXUS63 KDLH 202143 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
316 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

..CORRECTED FOR TYPO ERRORS...

.DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITHIN THE MID LVL FLOW WILL
BRING CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FOG TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAL
COVERAGE/DURATION ACROSS NW WISC WHERE LONGER DECOUPLED BDRY LYR
WILL EXIST. USED AREAS OF FOG TERMINOLOGY IN ERN CWA AND PATCHY
ELSEWHERE. LATEST FCST OF 925 WINDS SUGGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME
WILL BEGIN WEST OF A CDD-DLH- HINCKLEY LINE AFTER 6Z. HOPEFULLY
THIS MAY MITIGATE EXTENT OF FOG OVER WRN CWA. AS IS THE CASE WITH
MOST FOG POTENTIAL FORECASTS...LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.

PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AND ABOVE NORM TEMPS. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS LOCATED WEST
OF CWA SATURDAY...WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXISTING FCST HAD GOOD SOLUTION REGARDING TIMING OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND POPS. DID NOT CHANGE ALIGNMENT
OF POP GRADIENT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH TREND IS FOR HIGHER POPS TO BE
OVER NW WISC SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ZONE OF BEST LOW LEVEL THETAE
AXIS. SFC BDRY MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY GETS SOMEWHAT WASHED
OUT IN THE LOW LVL WIND FIELD BUT MAINTAINS WELL DEFINED SIGNAL IN
LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
WILL BE LIMITED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUDS BUT NOT A
LOT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY. NAM/EC/GEM FAVOR NWRN PART OF CWA FOR
HIGHER POPS.

.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

WE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM KS...NORTHEAST TOWARD IA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ALSO STRENGTHENING AS IT
NEARS MB/OT. THESE UPPER WAVES WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE IS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS
WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL. WE WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
SEVERAL OF THE PERIODS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN COULD VERY WELL OCCUR IF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN A
BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THOSE DETAILS WILL BE
WORKED OUT AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A HEAVY PRECIP MAKER.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG AND SOME STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY KEEP
THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE FOG AND STRATUS IN ALL THE TAF SITES...EITHER AS A
PREDOMINATE ELEMENT...OR AS A TEMPORARY CONDITION. A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY...SO THE FOG WILL BURN
OFF QUICKER THAN IT DID TODAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  49  36  48 /   0   0  20  40
INL  23  48  33  45 /   0   0  20  20
BRD  26  52  36  47 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  23  51  40  48 /   0   0  20  30
ASX  26  52  39  49 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

CANNON/MELDE

000
FXUS63 KDLH 202116
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
316 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITHIN THE MID LVL FLOW WILL
BRING CHANGEABLE WEATHER TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
AREAL COVERAGE/DURATION ACROSS NW WISC WITH LONGER DECOUPLED BDRY LYR.
USED AREAS FOG IN ERN CWA AND PATCHY ELSEWHERE. LATEST FCST OF 925
WINDS SUGGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BEGIN WEST OF A CDD-DLH-
HINCKLEY LINE AFTER 6Z. HOPEFULLY THIS MAY MITIGATE EXTENT OF FOG
OVER WRN CWA. WITH MOST FOG POTENTIAL FORECASTS...LATER UPDATES
MAY BE NEEDED. PLEASANT DAY ACROSS REGION SATURDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN AND ABOVE NORM TEMPS. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
LOCATED WEST OF CWA SATURDAY...WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. EXISTING FCST HAD GOOD SOLUTION REGARDING
TIMING OF LOW STRATUS DECK AND POPS. DID NOT CHANGE ALIGNMENT OF
POP GRADIENT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH TREND IS FOR HIGHER POPS TO BE OVER
NW WISC SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ZONE OF BEST LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS.
SFC BDRY MOVING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY GETS SOMEWHAT WASHED OUT IN
THE LOW LVL WIND FIELD BUT MAINTAINS WELL DEFINED SIGNAL IN LOW
LVL THERMAL FIELDS. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS MAY DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...OVERALL SYNOPTIC CALE FORCING WILL BE
LIMITED SO EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUDS BUT NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY. NAM/EC/GEM FAVOR NWRN PART OF CWA FOR HIGHER POPS.

.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

WE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT...AND HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM KS...NORTHEAST TOWARD IA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ALSO STRENGTHENING AS IT
NEARS MB/OT. THESE UPPER WAVES WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST THURSDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE IS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS
WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL. WE WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
SEVERAL OF THE PERIODS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY RAIN COULD VERY WELL OCCUR IF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN A
BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND THOSE DETAILS WILL BE
WORKED OUT AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A HEAVY PRECIP MAKER.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG AND SOME STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY KEEP
THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE TONIGHT. WE DID
INCLUDE FOG AND STRATUS IN ALL THE TAF SITES...EITHER AS A
PREDOMINATE ELEMENT...OR AS A TEMPORARY CONDITION. A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY...SO THE FOG WILL BURN
OFF QUICKER THAN IT DID TODAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  49  36  48 /   0   0  20  40
INL  23  48  33  45 /   0   0  20  20
BRD  26  52  36  47 /   0   0  20  30
HYR  23  51  40  48 /   0   0  20  30
ASX  26  52  39  49 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

CANNON/MELDE

000
FXUS63 KMPX 202046
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
245 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOG...THIS TIME
IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA. METARS STILL SHOWING SOME HZ IN THE AIR
FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA ON EAST WITH MID CLOUDS ON THEIR WAY
OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER.

MAX TEMPS TODAY REACHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIRMASS WARMING TOMORROW IN ESTABLISHED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL BE ADD A FEW MORE
DEGREES.  A BIT BREEZY WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH 850 MB WINDS UP INTO
THE 40 KNOT RANGE.

VIGOROUS TROUGH COMING ONSHORE ONTO WEST COAST WITH 12Z 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS IN 100 METER RANGE.  THIS FEATURE GETS DAMPENED OUT A
BIT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH STRONGER TROUGH COMING IN
BEHIND IT. THE CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IS FOR STRATUS TO
IMPACT AREA IN CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW.  EXPANDED AREA OF DRIZZLE
NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS
JUST A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREA STILL
GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP.

SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH ECMWF
BIT SLOWER WITH SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ON DEEP UPPER LOW.
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. MAY BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR VICINITY UPPER LOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX...BASED ON GFS
TIMING. ENUF COLD AIR IN PLACE BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WED FOR ANY
PCPN TO BE -SN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THURSDAY WITH
COOL..CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
LINGERING MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MIXING OUT... AND DECK OF
MID CLOUDS IS DEPARTING THE EAST. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE NIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DON/T APPEAR AS CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD ISSUES AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
MENTION IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR MVFR FOG... BUT WON/T PUT TOO
MUCH INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$
BAP/TH

000
FXUS63 KDLH 201747
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1147 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
FOG AND STRATUS ALONG A PORTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AND
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES/AITKIN/HINCKLEY AREAS WAS BREAKING UP
QUICKLY OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOG AND SOME STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY KEEP THE FOG FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE TONIGHT. WE DID INCLUDE FOG AND
STRATUS IN ALL THE TAF SITES...EITHER AS A PREDOMINATE ELEMENT...OR
AS A TEMPORARY CONDITION. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON
SATURDAY...SO THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKER THAN IT DID TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

UPDATE...PERSISTENT STRATUS/FOG BANK OVER BRD LAKES REGION.
LATEST RUC13 INDICATES NOSE OF WARMER AIR AT 85H MOVING OVER LOW
LEVEL COLD DOME....ACCENTUATING THERMAL INVERSION. LATEST NAM12
SNDGS AT BRD SHOW HYDROLAPSE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE BY 18Z AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO NEAR SFC LAYER. IN THEORY...THIS GIVES
SUN...ALBEIT AT A LOW ANGLE...A CHANCE TO ELIMINATE INCREASINGLY
THINNER STRATUS LAYER. VIS SAT IMAGERY ANIMATIONS SHOWS SLOW
EROSION OF EDGES OF CLOUD DECK OVER THIS REGION. HAVE UPDATE
ZFP/GRIDS TO LINGER THE CLOUDS/FG THROUGH 17/18Z. OTHERWISE..FCST
REMAINS QUIET THRU SATURDAY BEFORE POPS RETURN SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON FOG OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN SOUTHERN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES...EXTENDING FROM BRAINERD
TO STAPLES AND THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN THESE AREAS. WHILE IT
HAS NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD QUITE YET...IT IS VERY DENSE WHERE IT IS
OCCURRING. LOWER AND MID CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES...AND THIN CIRRUS IS NOT INHIBITING THE FOG. VISIBILITIES
HAVE ALSO BEEN COMING DOWN TO AT PINE RIVER WHICH JUST WENT DOWN
TO < 1/4 MILE AND LONGVILLE IS COMING DOWN TOO...AND HINTS OF
THINGS TO COME IN AITKIN COUNTY ARE SEEN WITH 2-3 MILE VSBYS. WHILE
THERE IS DRIER AIR TO THE WEST...AND IT IS NOT GETTING SHOVED EAST
VERY FAST WITH WEAK FLOW. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT SW AREAS MAINLY. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM AT THIS POINT. WE WILL MONITOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD OR
EASTWARD PROGRESS AS CLOUDS CLEAR...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH EARLIER GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT. FOG HAS BEEN PATCHY AT
FURTHER EAST...BUT EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO SPREAD OVER MOST
AREAS EXCEPT THE NE ARROWHEAD.

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET AND
STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST...CLEARING SKIES NICELY. CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO CLEAR IN NW WISC ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH
TEMPS. WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY... WHICH
WILL MEAN SIMILAR TEMPS TO THURSDAY IN THE 40S...PUSHING 50 IN
THE SOUTH. A CHILLY NIGHT THEN ENSUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF INTO WISCONSIN.

A WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ENSUES ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
WITH SSE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA OUT AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN
AREAS WEST...BUT MILD CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN FRIDAY.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO
BRING A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL HELP TO INCREASE PCPN POTENTIAL WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...FROM A JET STREAK EXPECTED TO
LIFT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO SHOULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ECMWF/GFS BOTH AGREE PRETTY WELL CONCERNING THIS TREND. THE
DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP TO SOME EXTENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THOSE DIFFERENCES BECOME EVEN MORE EXTREME BY MONDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THE GFS HAS A LOW NEAR KMSP WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE H5 LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SD/IA/MN BORDER. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE H5 LOW OVER
NW KANSAS. BY 12Z TUE...THE GFS HAS A CLOSED H5 LOW NEAR KMKE WITH
THE ECMWF CLOSING OFF A LOW IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW ALREADY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE...HAD THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SC
IOWA. THE GEM CLOBAL...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN THIS SITUATION. THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE MODELS HAVE FAIRLY LARGE SIGNIFICANCE AS
IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW OR EVEN A MIX.
THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW THAN THE ECMWF.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MODELS START TO BECOME MORE SIMILAR AGAIN BY
12Z THURSDAY. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THE COOLER WEATHER IS ON ITS
WAY DURING THE UPCOMING TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...FEEL THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW
CONCERNING SYNOPTIC SCALE TRENDS...BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS WE WILL
AT LEAST BE IN A TRANSITION BETWEEN DRY AND MILD WEATHER...AND
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.



AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. VFR STRATUS IS PUSHING EAST THROUGH ERN MN...WITH JUST SCT
CIRRUS BEHIND IT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS ARE
PROMOTING FG/BR BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. KBRD HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 1/4 MILE...AND WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. REMAINDER OF TAF
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KINL WILL LIKELY SEE IFR/LIFR CONDS AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOG WILL FINALLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST ON FRI WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  27  48  37  47 /   0  10  20  40
INL  23  47  33  44 /   0  10  20  30
BRD  26  51  36  47 /   0  10  20  30
HYR  23  50  40  48 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  26  51  40  48 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

MELDE/CANNON

000
FXUS63 KMPX 201702
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 944 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
MORNING FOG IS SLOWLY BURNING OFF PER LATEST OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS SUNSHINE WORKS ON IT ALONG WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CLEARING TREND WITH THE CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER LINING UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE LOBE OF 400-300MB PV
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD
COVER... TEMPERATURE... AND WIND TRENDS... MAKING NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
LINGERING MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MIXING OUT... AND DECK OF
MID CLOUDS IS DEPARTING THE EAST. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE NIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES WITH FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS DON/T APPEAR AS CONDUCIVE TO
WIDESPREAD ISSUES AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SOME
MENTION IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FOR MVFR FOG... BUT WON/T PUT TOO
MUCH INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DENSE FOG ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORK IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 14Z.

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MN AND MUCH OF WI.
BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH TRENDS FROM THE NAM/GFS...THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MN BY LATE MORNING AND THE LADYSMITH TO EAU
CLAIRE AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MN ON SUNDAY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS. A SURGE OF STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE SHOWS THE SATURATION
SPREADING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 22/06Z ON 40
KNOT WINDS. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ABOVE THE STRATUS. THEREFORE...TRIMMED POPS AND INDICATED JUST
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE BETTER ADIABATIC OMEGA IS
SHOWN.

ON SUNDAY...THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ADVANCES OUR
WAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VERY
MILD ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
40S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 35 TO 40...WHICH IS THE NORMAL
HIGHS RIGHT NOW.

BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE ON DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TWO
WEATHER MAKERS MOVING THROUGH FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS TRYING TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON THANKSGIVING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HENCE...
MADE CHANGES TO THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS BY USING A
BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THIS LEAD TO INCREASING
POPS/WX/CLOUDS. THIS SOLUTION IS WARMER THAN THE GFS FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH TIME COOLING TAKES PLACE ON THE
ECMWF WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW USED ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TAKING A DROP WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION PREVAILS. SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
PONDER.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDLH 201635 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1035 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...PERSISTENT STRATUS/FOG BANK OVER BRD LAKES REGION.
LATEST RUC13 INDICATES NOSE OF WARMER AIR AT 85H MOVING OVER LOW
LEVEL COLD DOME....ACCENTUATING THERMAL INVERSION. LATEST NAM12
SNDGS AT BRD SHOW HYDROLAPSE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE BY 18Z AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT MIXES INTO NEAR SFC LAYER. IN THEORY...THIS GIVES
SUN...ALBEIT AT A LOW ANGLE...A CHANCE TO ELIMINATE INCREASINGLY
THINNER STRATUS LAYER. VIS SAT IMAGERY ANIMATIONS SHOWS SLOW
EROSION OF EDGES OF CLOUD DECK OVER THIS REGION. HAVE UPDATE
ZFP/GRIDS TO LINGER THE CLOUDS/FG THROUGH 17/18Z. OTHERWISE..FCST
REMAINS QUIET THRU SATURDAY BEFORE POPS RETURN SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON FOG OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN SOUTHERN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES...EXTENDING FROM BRAINERD
TO STAPLES AND THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN THESE AREAS. WHILE IT
HAS NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD QUITE YET...IT IS VERY DENSE WHERE IT IS
OCCURRING. LOWER AND MID CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES...AND THIN CIRRUS IS NOT INHIBITING THE FOG. VISIBILITIES
HAVE ALSO BEEN COMING DOWN TO AT PINE RIVER WHICH JUST WENT DOWN
TO < 1/4 MILE AND LONGVILLE IS COMING DOWN TOO...AND HINTS OF
THINGS TO COME IN AITKIN COUNTY ARE SEEN WITH 2-3 MILE VSBYS. WHILE
THERE IS DRIER AIR TO THE WEST...AND IT IS NOT GETTING SHOVED EAST
VERY FAST WITH WEAK FLOW. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT SW AREAS MAINLY. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM AT THIS POINT. WE WILL MONITOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD OR
EASTWARD PROGRESS AS CLOUDS CLEAR...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH EARLIER GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT. FOG HAS BEEN PATCHY AT
FURTHER EAST...BUT EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO SPREAD OVER MOST
AREAS EXCEPT THE NE ARROWHEAD.

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET AND
STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST...CLEARING SKIES NICELY. CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO CLEAR IN NW WISC ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH
TEMPS. WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY... WHICH
WILL MEAN SIMILAR TEMPS TO THURSDAY IN THE 40S...PUSHING 50 IN
THE SOUTH. A CHILLY NIGHT THEN ENSUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF INTO WISCONSIN.

A WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ENSUES ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
WITH SSE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA OUT AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN
AREAS WEST...BUT MILD CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN FRIDAY.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO
BRING A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL HELP TO INCREASE PCPN POTENTIAL WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...FROM A JET STREAK EXPECTED TO
LIFT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO SHOULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ECMWF/GFS BOTH AGREE PRETTY WELL CONCERNING THIS TREND. THE
DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP TO SOME EXTENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THOSE DIFFERENCES BECOME EVEN MORE EXTREME BY MONDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THE GFS HAS A LOW NEAR KMSP WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE H5 LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SD/IA/MN BORDER. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE H5 LOW OVER
NW KANSAS. BY 12Z TUE...THE GFS HAS A CLOSED H5 LOW NEAR KMKE WITH
THE ECMWF CLOSING OFF A LOW IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW ALREADY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE...HAD THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SC
IOWA. THE GEM CLOBAL...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN THIS SITUATION. THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE MODELS HAVE FAIRLY LARGE SIGNIFICANCE AS
IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW OR EVEN A MIX.
THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW THAN THE ECMWF.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MODELS START TO BECOME MORE SIMILAR AGAIN BY
12Z THURSDAY. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THE COOLER WEATHER IS ON ITS
WAY DURING THE UPCOMING TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...FEEL THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW
CONCERNING SYNOPTIC SCALE TRENDS...BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS WE WILL
AT LEAST BE IN A TRANSITION BETWEEN DRY AND MILD WEATHER...AND
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.



AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. VFR STRATUS IS PUSHING EAST THROUGH ERN MN...WITH JUST SCT
CIRRUS BEHIND IT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS ARE
PROMOTING FG/BR BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. KBRD HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 1/4 MILE...AND WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. REMAINDER OF TAF
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KINL WILL LIKELY SEE IFR/LIFR CONDS AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOG WILL FINALLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST ON FRI WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  27  48  37 /   0   0  10  20
INL  46  21  47  33 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  46  26  51  36 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  50  23  50  40 /  10   0  10  20
ASX  51  26  51  40 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

CANNON/MELDE

000
FXUS63 KMPX 201544
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
944 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING FOG IS SLOWLY BURNING OFF PER LATEST OBS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS SUNSHINE WORKS ON IT ALONG WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A CONTINUED
CLEARING TREND WITH THE CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER LINING UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE LOBE OF 400-300MB PV
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD
COVER... TEMPERATURE... AND WIND TRENDS... MAKING NO SUBSTANTIVE
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
/ISSUED 430 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD WILL COME IN FIRST COUPLE
HOURS. SHORT WAVE ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH MN THIS MORNING
CONTROLLING WHAT REMAINS OF CIGS FROM STC EAST. THIS WAVE IS
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY A WEAK TROUGH. DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK IN
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...BUT LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO A WEAK PUSH OF
DRY AIR...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN RATHER SPORADIC VSBY AT
AXN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. EVERYWHERE ELSE...WILL SEE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EVENTUALLY
DRIER AIR WILL TAKE CONTROL...SENDING ALL SITES TO P6SM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SFC...SO EXPECT ANOTHER 24 TO 30
HOURS OF LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BE WRLY TODAY...TURNING SRLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FINALLY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG POTENTIAL
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THOUGH
BASED ON FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THIS TO ONLY BE
AN ISSUE AT WIS SITES AS DRIER AIR AT MN SITES SHOULD PRECLUDE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 430 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DENSE FOG ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORK IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 14Z.

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MN AND MUCH OF WI.
BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH TRENDS FROM THE NAM/GFS...THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MN BY LATE MORNING AND THE LADYSMITH TO EAU
CLAIRE AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MN ON SUNDAY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS. A SURGE OF STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE SHOWS THE SATURATION
SPREADING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 22/06Z ON 40
KNOT WINDS. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ABOVE THE STRATUS. THEREFORE...TRIMMED POPS AND INDICATED JUST
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE BETTER ADIABATIC OMEGA IS
SHOWN.

ON SUNDAY...THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ADVANCES OUR
WAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VERY
MILD ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
40S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 35 TO 40...WHICH IS THE NORMAL
HIGHS RIGHT NOW.

BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE ON DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TWO
WEATHER MAKERS MOVING THROUGH FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS TRYING TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON THANKSGIVING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HENCE...
MADE CHANGES TO THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS BY USING A
BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THIS LEAD TO INCREASING
POPS/WX/CLOUDS. THIS SOLUTION IS WARMER THAN THE GFS FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH TIME COOLING TAKES PLACE ON THE
ECMWF WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW USED ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TAKING A DROP WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION PREVAILS. SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
PONDER.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

TRH/MPG/RAH

000
FXUS63 KMPX 201154
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DENSE FOG ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORK IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 14Z.

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MN AND MUCH OF WI.
BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH TRENDS FROM THE NAM/GFS...THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MN BY LATE MORNING AND THE LADYSMITH TO EAU
CLAIRE AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MN ON SUNDAY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS. A SURGE OF STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE SHOWS THE SATURATION
SPREADING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 22/06Z ON 40
KNOT WINDS. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ABOVE THE STRATUS. THEREFORE...TRIMMED POPS AND INDICATED JUST
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE BETTER ADIABATIC OMEGA IS
SHOWN.

ON SUNDAY...THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ADVANCES OUR
WAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VERY
MILD ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
40S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 35 TO 40...WHICH IS THE NORMAL
HIGHS RIGHT NOW.

BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE ON DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TWO
WEATHER MAKERS MOVING THROUGH FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS TRYING TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON THANKSGIVING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HENCE...
MADE CHANGES TO THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS BY USING A
BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THIS LEAD TO INCREASING
POPS/WX/CLOUDS. THIS SOLUTION IS WARMER THAN THE GFS FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH TIME COOLING TAKES PLACE ON THE
ECMWF WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW USED ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TAKING A DROP WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION PREVAILS. SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
PONDER.

&&



.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD WILL COME IN FIRST COUPLE
HOURS. SHORT WAVE ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH MN THIS MORNING
CONTROLLING WHAT REMAINS OF CIGS FROM STC EAST. THIS WAVE IS
REFLECTED AT THE SFC BY A WEAK TROUGH. DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK IN
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...BUT LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO A WEAK PUSH OF
DRY AIR...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN RATHER SPORADIC VSBY AT
AXN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. EVERYWHERE ELSE...WILL SEE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT EVENTUALLY
DRIER AIR WILL TAKE CONTROL...SENDING ALL SITES TO P6SM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN AT THE SFC...SO EXPECT ANOTHER 24 TO 30
HOURS OF LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL BE WRLY TODAY...TURNING SRLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FINALLY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOG POTENTIAL
AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THOUGH
BASED ON FORECAST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THIS TO ONLY BE
AN ISSUE AT WIS SITES AS DRIER AIR AT MN SITES SHOULD PRECLUDE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-TODD.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

RAH/MPG

000
FXUS63 KMPX 201030
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DENSE FOG ACROSS CENTRAL MN WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING AS WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORK IN BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 14Z.

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS COVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MN AND MUCH OF
WI. BASED ON LOW LEVEL RH TRENDS FROM THE NAM/GFS...THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD EXIT EASTERN MN BY LATE MORNING AND THE LADYSMITH TO EAU
CLAIRE AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. THIS IS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MN ON SUNDAY AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS. A SURGE OF STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE NAM 290K THETA SURFACE SHOWS THE SATURATION
SPREADING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 22/06Z ON 40
KNOT WINDS. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ABOVE THE STRATUS. THEREFORE...TRIMMED POPS AND INDICATED JUST
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHERE BETTER ADIABATIC OMEGA IS
SHOWN.

ON SUNDAY...THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ADVANCES OUR
WAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VERY
MILD ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE
40S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 35 TO 40...WHICH IS THE NORMAL
HIGHS RIGHT NOW.

BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE ON DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TWO
WEATHER MAKERS MOVING THROUGH FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS TRYING TO FORM A CUT-OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON THANKSGIVING. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HENCE...
MADE CHANGES TO THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS BY USING A
BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. THIS LEAD TO INCREASING
POPS/WX/CLOUDS. THIS SOLUTION IS WARMER THAN THE GFS FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH TIME COOLING TAKES PLACE ON THE
ECMWF WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW USED ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TAKING A DROP WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION PREVAILS. SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
PONDER.

&&

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL REMAINING ABUNDANT WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. MVFR
CIGS ARE RETREATING EASTWARD INTO WEST CENT BUT 5000-6000 FT DECK
OF CLOUDS IS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI
AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN AS WELL. WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT
WINDS VSBY IS IN THE 3 TO 6 SM RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE THERE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VSBY REDUCED TO LESS
THAN 3 SM ACROSS WEST CENT MN /SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS/. LIGHT WEST
TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS WEST CENT MN YET TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. VSBY WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING LEAVING VFR CONDS IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 8 KT RANGE AND SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT BE
LIGHT DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE. CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

KAXN...VSBY THROUGH EARLY MORNING IS THE MAIN CONCERN. ONCE THE
HIGH CLOUDS DEPART FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE TREND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS FOR A TIME AROUND
DAYBREAK. CAVEAT COULD BE THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE CIG/VIS FROM DROPPING THAT MUCH.

KSTC...VSBY IS A CONCERN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON A BIT LONGER BUT EXPECT THAT VSBY WILL FALL AS IT DEPARTS. VSBY
BELOW 1SM IS POSSIBLE WITH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH LATE MORNING.

KRWF...VSBY TOWARDS DAYBREAK IS THE MAIN CONCERN. DECREASES TO
AROUND 2SM ARE POSSIBLE SO WILL KEEP IN THE TAF.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS HAVE EXITED AND 5000-6000 FT DECK WILL LINGER
WITH EARLIER GAPS FILLING IN. VSBY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS
COOLING OCCURS AND FURTHER DECREASE AS THE CLOUDS DEPART TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. VSBY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 SM TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH 5/6SM HAZE/MIST CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MORNING.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AND FLOW WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO MOVE IN FROM THE MINNESOTA RIVER.

KEAU...MVFR CIGS STARTING TO SCATTER BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THEM
RETURNING SO WILL KEEP TEMPO MENTION. TIMING OF SCATTERING TRICKY
AND MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN WHAT THE TAF HAS. VSBY AROUND 5 OR 6SM
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING.

KRNH...MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED KRNH BUT 3 TO 4 SM VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SOME REDUCTION TO 2 MILES OR SO FOR
A SHORT TIME POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY WILL OCCUR
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOG WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR SATURDAY MORNING.  ..MDB..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-TODD.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

RAH/MDB

000
FXUS63 KDLH 200943
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
343 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON FOG OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN OCCURRING
IN SOUTHERN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES...EXTENDING FROM BRAINERD
TO STAPLES AND THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN THESE AREAS. WHILE IT
HAS NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD QUITE YET...IT IS VERY DENSE WHERE IT IS
OCCURRING. LOWER AND MID CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED CASS AND CROW WING
COUNTIES...AND THIN CIRRUS IS NOT INHIBITING THE FOG. VISIBILITIES
HAVE ALSO BEEN COMING DOWN TO AT PINE RIVER WHICH JUST WENT DOWN
TO < 1/4 MILE AND LONGVILLE IS COMING DOWN TOO...AND HINTS OF
THINGS TO COME IN AITKIN COUNTY ARE SEEN WITH 2-3 MILE VSBYS. WHILE
THERE IS DRIER AIR TO THE WEST...AND IT IS NOT GETTING SHOVED EAST
VERY FAST WITH WEAK FLOW. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
SPREAD THROUGHOUT SW AREAS MAINLY. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM AT THIS POINT. WE WILL MONITOR ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD OR
EASTWARD PROGRESS AS CLOUDS CLEAR...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH EARLIER GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT. FOG HAS BEEN PATCHY AT
FURTHER EAST...BUT EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO SPREAD OVER MOST
AREAS EXCEPT THE NE ARROWHEAD.

AFTER THE FOG LIFTS...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET AND
STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST...CLEARING SKIES NICELY. CLOUDS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO CLEAR IN NW WISC ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH
TEMPS. WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY... WHICH
WILL MEAN SIMILAR TEMPS TO THURSDAY IN THE 40S...PUSHING 50 IN
THE SOUTH. A CHILLY NIGHT THEN ENSUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF INTO WISCONSIN.

A WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ENSUES ON SATURDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
WITH SSE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA OUT AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN
AREAS WEST...BUT MILD CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO
BRING A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL HELP TO INCREASE PCPN POTENTIAL WHEN THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...FROM A JET STREAK EXPECTED TO
LIFT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO SHOULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ECMWF/GFS BOTH AGREE PRETTY WELL CONCERNING THIS TREND. THE
DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP TO SOME EXTENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THOSE DIFFERENCES BECOME EVEN MORE EXTREME BY MONDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THE GFS HAS A LOW NEAR KMSP WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE H5 LOW IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SD/IA/MN BORDER. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE H5 LOW OVER
NW KANSAS. BY 12Z TUE...THE GFS HAS A CLOSED H5 LOW NEAR KMKE WITH
THE ECMWF CLOSING OFF A LOW IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW ALREADY MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE...HAD THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SC
IOWA. THE GEM CLOBAL...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN THIS SITUATION. THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE MODELS HAVE FAIRLY LARGE SIGNIFICANCE AS
IT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW OR EVEN A MIX.
THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW THAN THE ECMWF.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MODELS START TO BECOME MORE SIMILAR AGAIN BY
12Z THURSDAY. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THE COOLER WEATHER IS ON ITS
WAY DURING THE UPCOMING TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...FEEL THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW
CONCERNING SYNOPTIC SCALE TRENDS...BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS WE WILL
AT LEAST BE IN A TRANSITION BETWEEN DRY AND MILD WEATHER...AND
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS
MORNING. VFR STRATUS IS PUSHING EAST THROUGH ERN MN...WITH JUST SCT
CIRRUS BEHIND IT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS ARE
PROMOTING FG/BR BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. KBRD HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 1/4 MILE...AND WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. REMAINDER OF TAF
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KINL WILL LIKELY SEE IFR/LIFR CONDS AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOG WILL FINALLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST ON FRI WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  27  48  37 /  10   0  10  20
INL  45  21  47  33 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  49  26  51  36 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  48  23  50  40 /  10   0  10  20
ASX  49  26  51  40 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ025-
     033>036.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

DONOFRIO/DAP

000
FXUS63 KDLH 200750 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
150 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CASS..CROW WING...AND
AITKIN COUNTIES. SEE THE LATEST NPW FOR DETAILS. WE WILL EXPAND
MORE ON THIS IN THE MORNING AFD COMING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
EVENING. VFR STRATUS IS PUSHING EAST THROUGH ERN MN...WITH JUST
SCT CIRRUS BEHIND IT. LOTS OF LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS ARE
PROMOTING FG/BR BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. KBRD HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 1/4 MILE...AND WE EXPECT THEM TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. REMAINDER OF TAF
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KINL WILL LIKELY SEE IFRLIFR CONDS
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOG WILL FINALLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST ON FRI WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...A LONG LIVED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MADE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS IT NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ERN WI ZONES TODAY. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SRN SRN ASHLAND...IRON...ERN
SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THE FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED...SUN NGT THRU THU.
MAIN FCST FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PD WILL BE A MAJ TROF MOVG IN
FROM THE PAC SUN NITE THEN MIGRATING ACRS THE MIDWEST WHILE
SEVERAL SMALLER S/WVS PROPAGATE THRU THE MAIN CYC FLOW DEFORMING
AND RE-FORMING THE MAIN TROF...ENDING UP WITH A BUILDING RIDGE AND
NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL OF THIS INTRODUCES A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FCST. MODELS IN FAIR AGMT ON SFC
RIDGING SUN NITE BHND A SFC TROF EXITING TO THE E. AFT
THAT...MODELS AGREE ONLY IN THE BROAD CYC FLOW OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE DIFFS IN THE LOCATION OF THE SMALLER TROFS AND S/WVS
HWVR WILL MAKE FCST DIFFICULT. THERE SEEMS TO BE GENERAL AGMT ON
SIG SFC SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR CWA ON MON AND WED...AND THE CHC
POPS WERE ASSIGNED TO THESE PDS...WITH SLGT CHC FOR REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED FCST. ADJUSTMENTS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE TO BE MADE AS
TIME GOES BY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  30  45  37 /  10   0  10  20
INL  44  21  46  33 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  48  29  48  36 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  47  29  47  40 /  10   0  10  20
ASX  48  32  47  40 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ025-
     033>036.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

DONOFRIO/06

000
FXUS63 KDLH 200553 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1152 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
EVENING. VFR STRATUS IS PUSHING EAST THROUGH ERN MN...WITH JUST
SCT CIRRUS BEHIND IT. LOTS OF LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS ARE
PROMOTING FG/BR BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. KBRD HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 1/4 MILE...AND WE EXPECT THEM TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. REMAINDER OF TAF
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KINL WILL LIKELY SEE IFRLIFR CONDS
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOG WILL FINALLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST ON FRI WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...A LONG LIVED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MADE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS IT NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ERN WI ZONES TODAY. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SRN SRN ASHLAND...IRON...ERN
SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THE FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED...SUN NGT THRU THU.
MAIN FCST FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PD WILL BE A MAJ TROF MOVG IN
FROM THE PAC SUN NITE THEN MIGRATING ACRS THE MIDWEST WHILE
SEVERAL SMALLER S/WVS PROPAGATE THRU THE MAIN CYC FLOW DEFORMING
AND RE-FORMING THE MAIN TROF...ENDING UP WITH A BUILDING RIDGE AND
NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL OF THIS INTRODUCES A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FCST. MODELS IN FAIR AGMT ON SFC
RIDGING SUN NITE BHND A SFC TROF EXITING TO THE E. AFT
THAT...MODELS AGREE ONLY IN THE BROAD CYC FLOW OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE DIFFS IN THE LOCATION OF THE SMALLER TROFS AND S/WVS
HWVR WILL MAKE FCST DIFFICULT. THERE SEEMS TO BE GENERAL AGMT ON
SIG SFC SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR CWA ON MON AND WED...AND THE CHC
POPS WERE ASSIGNED TO THESE PDS...WITH SLGT CHC FOR REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED FCST. ADJUSTMENTS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE TO BE MADE AS
TIME GOES BY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  44  30  45 /  10  10   0  10
INL  27  44  21  46 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  31  48  29  48 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  36  47  29  47 /  10  10   0  10
ASX  37  48  32  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

LONKA

000
FXUS63 KDLH 200552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1152 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
EVENING. VFR STRATUS IS PUSHING EAST THROUGH ERN MN...WITH JUST
SCT CIRRUS BEHIND IT. LOTS OF LO LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS ARE
PROMOTING FG/BR BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. KBRD HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 1/4 MILE...AND WE EXPECT THEM TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. REMAINDER OF TAF
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KINL WILL LIKELY SEE IFRLIFR CONDS
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOG WILL FINALLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST ON FRI WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...A LONG LIVED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MADE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS IT NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ERN WI ZONES TODAY. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SRN SRN ASHLAND...IRON...ERN
SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THE FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED...SUN NGT THRU THU.
MAIN FCST FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PD WILL BE A MAJ TROF MOVG IN
FROM THE PAC SUN NITE THEN MIGRATING ACRS THE MIDWEST WHILE
SEVERAL SMALLER S/WVS PROPAGATE THRU THE MAIN CYC FLOW DEFORMING
AND RE-FORMING THE MAIN TROF...ENDING UP WITH A BUILDING RIDGE AND
NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL OF THIS INTRODUCES A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FCST. MODELS IN FAIR AGMT ON SFC
RIDGING SUN NITE BHND A SFC TROF EXITING TO THE E. AFT
THAT...MODELS AGREE ONLY IN THE BROAD CYC FLOW OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE DIFFS IN THE LOCATION OF THE SMALLER TROFS AND S/WVS
HWVR WILL MAKE FCST DIFFICULT. THERE SEEMS TO BE GENERAL AGMT ON
SIG SFC SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR CWA ON MON AND WED...AND THE CHC
POPS WERE ASSIGNED TO THESE PDS...WITH SLGT CHC FOR REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED FCST. ADJUSTMENTS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE TO BE MADE AS
TIME GOES BY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  44  30  45 /  10  10   0  10
INL  27  44  21  46 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  31  48  29  48 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  36  47  29  47 /  10  10   0  10
ASX  37  48  32  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

LONKA/BERDES/BERDES

000
FXUS63 KMPX 200502
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.UPDATE...

ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FCST ENTAILS EXIT OF UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER
SHEARED TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW SHOULD EXIT
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN. FARTHER EAST...WEAK SFC TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
SHEARED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL MOVE SFC TROF OVER WESTERN AREAS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WEAK FLOW AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MEAN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CLOUD AREA TO THE EAST. SOME
CS/AS ASSOCIATED WITH DAKOTAS TROF MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHAT. BUT WILL MENTION FOG POSSIBILITY IN THE GRIDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE VALUES.

AFTER FOG BURNS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK CLOSE TO 50 FRIDAY. QUIET/MILD WEATHER INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATES IN THE 50-55F RANGE. ALL MODELS
LIFT MORE MOISTURE NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORT WAVE. FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF TROF WILL BRING IN CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER MAINLY EASTERN CWA. TREND OF THE GFS HAS BEEN TO
MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST QUICKLY ND BRING IN ANOTHER FACT MOVING
WESTERN TROF OVER THE REGION MON/TUE PERIOD. THE 12Z CANADIAN
SLOWED THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND DEEPENED IT SOUTH AS DID THE 12Z
ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION IN THE LONG
TERM...WHICH WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS MON-WED PERIOD. STILL
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE NEXT MODEL RUN COMES TO MORE OF A
CONSENSUS WITH TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY THOUGH. THERE IS A LOT OF COLD AIR BOTTLED UP IN
ALASKA/YUKON REGION(MID 40S BELOW INTERIOR ALASKA). AT THE MOMENT
IT APPEARS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO
DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY TIME PERIOD AS SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST. HOPING THIS WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
LIMIT TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&



.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL REMAINING ABUNDANT WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. MVFR
CIGS ARE RETREATING EASTWARD INTO WEST CENT BUT 5000-6000 FT DECK
OF CLOUDS IS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI
AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN AS WELL. WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT
WINDS VSBY IS IN THE 3 TO 6 SM RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE THERE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS SEEING VSBY REDUCED TO LESS
THAN 3 SM ACROSS WEST CENT MN /SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS/. LIGHT WEST
TO WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS WEST CENT MN YET TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. VSBY WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING LEAVING VFR CONDS IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 8 KT RANGE AND SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT BE
LIGHT DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE. CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.

KAXN...VSBY THROUGH EARLY MORNING IS THE MAIN CONCERN. ONCE THE
HIGH CLOUDS DEPART FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP THE TREND
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS FOR A TIME AROUND
DAYBREAK. CAVEAT COULD BE THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE CIG/VIS FROM DROPPING THAT MUCH.

KSTC...VSBY IS A CONCERN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON A BIT LONGER BUT EXPECT THAT VSBY WILL FALL AS IT DEPARTS. VSBY
BELOW 1SM IS POSSIBLE WITH IMPROVEMENT THROUGH LATE MORNING.

KRWF...VSBY TOWARDS DAYBREAK IS THE MAIN CONCERN. DECREASES TO
AROUND 2SM ARE POSSIBLE SO WILL KEEP IN THE TAF.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS HAVE EXITED AND 5000-6000 FT DECK WILL LINGER
WITH EARLIER GAPS FILLING IN. VSBY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS
COOLING OCCURS AND FURTHER DECREASE AS THE CLOUDS DEPART TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. VSBY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 SM TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WITH 5/6SM HAZE/MIST CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MORNING.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AND FLOW WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO MOVE IN FROM THE MINNESOTA RIVER.

KEAU...MVFR CIGS STARTING TO SCATTER BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THEM
RETURNING SO WILL KEEP TEMPO MENTION. TIMING OF SCATTERING TRICKY
AND MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN WHAT THE TAF HAS. VSBY AROUND 5 OR 6SM
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOG
POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING.

KRNH...MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED KRNH BUT 3 TO 4 SM VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SOME REDUCTION TO 2 MILES OR SO FOR
A SHORT TIME POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VSBY WILL OCCUR
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOG WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR SATURDAY MORNING.  ..MDB..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/MDB

000
FXUS63 KMPX 192349
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.UPDATE...

ADDED 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FCST ENTAILS EXIT OF UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER
SHEARED TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LOW SHOULD EXIT
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN. FARTHER EAST...WEAK SFC TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
SHEARED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL MOVE SFC TROF OVER WESTERN AREAS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WEAK FLOW AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MEAN FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CLOUD AREA TO THE EAST. SOME
CS/AS ASSOCIATED WITH DAKOTAS TROF MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHAT. BUT WILL MENTION FOG POSSIBILITY IN THE GRIDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE VALUES.

AFTER FOG BURNS OFF EARLY FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE RETURN WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK CLOSE TO 50 FRIDAY. QUIET/MILD WEATHER INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATES IN THE 50-55F RANGE. ALL MODELS
LIFT MORE MOISTURE NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORT WAVE. FORCING ALONG/AHEAD OF TROF WILL BRING IN CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER MAINLY EASTERN CWA. TREND OF THE GFS HAS BEEN TO
MOVE THIS TROUGH EAST QUICKLY ND BRING IN ANOTHER FACT MOVING
WESTERN TROF OVER THE REGION MON/TUE PERIOD. THE 12Z CANADIAN
SLOWED THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AND DEEPENED IT SOUTH AS DID THE 12Z
ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION IN THE LONG
TERM...WHICH WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS MON-WED PERIOD. STILL
FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE NEXT MODEL RUN COMES TO MORE OF A
CONSENSUS WITH TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY THOUGH. THERE IS A LOT OF COLD AIR BOTTLED UP IN
ALASKA/YUKON REGION(MID 40S BELOW INTERIOR ALASKA). AT THE MOMENT
IT APPEARS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO
DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY TIME PERIOD AS SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST. HOPING THIS WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
LIMIT TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WEAK WIND FLOW PATTERN TO KEEP SOME MVFR CIGS IN PLACE THIS
EVENING..ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KSTC TO NEAR KMSP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WI UNTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME DRIER AIR WITH WEAK RIDGING WILL HELP TO
ERODE THE MVFR CIGS IN THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING LEAVING VFR
CIGS. ADDITIONAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT OVER AREAS OF LINGERING HIGH
DEW POINTS COULD CAUSE SOME PATCHY LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM KAXN
TO KRWF FROM 08Z-13Z. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A DRIER REGIME
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRES.



&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/JPR

000
FXUS63 KDLH 192346
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
546 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WK CFNT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR OVNGT...BUT PRBLY NOT BEFORE
SUNRISE AT DLH...HIB...AND HYR. THEREFORE REPEATED EARLY MRNG FG
AT THESE LOCATIONS AND KEPT INL AND BRD MAINLY VFR THRU TAF PD.
FRI MIDDAY AND AFTN HRS SHUD BE VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS. EXPECT WINDS
TO BE L/V BUT WITH A WEAK WLY COMPONENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

DISCUSSION...A LONG LIVED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MADE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS IT NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ERN WI ZONES TODAY. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SRN SRN ASHLAND...IRON...ERN
SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE
FOG FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THE FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED...SUN NGT THRU THU.
MAIN FCST FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PD WILL BE A MAJ TROF MOVG IN
FROM THE PAC SUN NITE THEN MIGRATING ACRS THE MIDWEST WHILE
SEVERAL SMALLER S/WVS PROPAGATE THRU THE MAIN CYC FLOW DEFORMING
AND RE-FORMING THE MAIN TROF...ENDING UP WITH A BUILDING RIDGE AND
NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK. ALL OF THIS INTRODUCES A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FCST. MODELS IN FAIR AGMT ON SFC
RIDGING SUN NITE BHND A SFC TROF EXITING TO THE E. AFT
THAT...MODELS AGREE ONLY IN THE BROAD CYC FLOW OVR THE UPR
MIDWEST. THE DIFFS IN THE LOCATION OF THE SMALLER TROFS AND S/WVS
HWVR WILL MAKE FCST DIFFICULT. THERE SEEMS TO BE GENERAL AGMT ON
SIG SFC SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR CWA ON MON AND WED...AND THE CHC
POPS WERE ASSIGNED TO THESE PDS...WITH SLGT CHC FOR REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED FCST. ADJUSTMENTS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE TO BE MADE AS
TIME GOES BY.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  44  30  45 /  10  10   0  10
INL  27  44  21  46 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  31  48  29  48 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  36  47  29  47 /  10  10   0  10
ASX  37  48  32  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

LONKA