000
FXUS63 KEAX 212322
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/346 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCALLY POOLED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NORTH AND DISSIPATE. AS PER FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST...THE
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...IN AREAS WHERE DEEPER MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. GIVEN INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND STRONGER SE
WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MIXY
NATURE OF THE SOUNDINGS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...STRATUS WOULD LIKELY BE
THE RESULT IF MOISTURE WAS DEEP ENOUGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...MOIST
LAYER APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE NRN GRIDS TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER.

WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG FOR THE NRN GRIDS TONIGHT AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT MAKE ANY REFINEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

MOISTURE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ENE INTO THE
CWA SUN NIGHT. MOIST IS LIMITED WITH FORCING RATHER WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN IS LATE MON AFTN AND MON NIGHT WHEN A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE A GENERAL
CONSENSUS IN MVG THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NR THE MO/IA BDR MON NGT AND
TUES WITH A STG WAVE MVG AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN THE FAVORABLE QUAD OF A 90KT H3 SPEED MAX
MON NGT WITH A MODEST PVU MAX ROTATING THROUGH MISSOURI. GIVEN THE
LOW STATIC STABILITY AND MODEST QG FORCING...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
LATE MON AFTN AND MON NGT. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPES AROUND 100 J/KG.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK...SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
EVIDENT AMONG VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY CONSISTENT. BY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH LOCATION AND TIMING BY THIS TIME
FRAME KEY IN DETERMINING WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY AND WHEN ITS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY...SLIDING ACTIVITY
EAST WITH TIME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY QUICK ON ITS HEELS. LINGERING PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
MAY BE EVIDENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO
BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
TRANSLATE ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEK BRINGING WARMER TEMPS.

DEROCHE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
MVFR FOG. ONCE THIS LIFTS NORTH BETWEEN 03 TO 04Z...PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
KEEP THE MVFR VSBYS FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED SMALL
TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

PC

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 212306
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
506 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/330 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THRU MONDAY
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING DOMINATING AND NUETRAL TO WEAK WAA FORECAST.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY INVOF EXTREME ERN TX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY ON
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWV MOVING THRU THE
GREAT BASIN ATTM. WITH LITTLE REAL OVERALL CHANGE IN THE AIR
MASS...TEMPERATURES WILL TO A DEGREE BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS. MAKING THIS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING IS THE FACT THE
MODEL RH FIELDS HAVE BEEN RATHER POOR OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN
DEPICTING THE CLOUDS. I THINK FOR THE MOST PART THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
WILL DECREASE AND MOVE NNEWD AND THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY WILL RESIDE IN THE WRN PORTION OF MO TOUCHING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NE MO AS WELL. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE ARE A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE MAIN EMPHASIS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE MID/UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD ON THE LOW POSITION BY 00Z WED...BUT IT IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY
GREAT. A CONSENSUS POSITION WOULD BE INVOF SE IA...WITH THE LOW
EXITING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWV TROF/UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LEAD
IMPULSE MOVING THRU THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON...WHICH HAS A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF BRINGING A SPRINKLE OR LGT SHOWER TO FAR NRN
SECTIONS. OTHERWISE PCPN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE STG MID/UPPER LOW-TROF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER DISMAL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
CDFNT...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE ROBUST ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SUPPORTIVE OF A BAND OF RAIN WITH
CLOUD BASES IN THE MID LEVELS. ACCORDINGLY I HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN
THE WESTERN CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE ERN CWA ON TUESDAY.
SOME GOOD CAA WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PROBABLY A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS.

A CHILLY PERIOD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SHRTWV
TROF/UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND BRING A COLDER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THERE HAD BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF RUN...THEY HAVE ALL COME ONBOARD. EXPECTING
MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROF BEGINS EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
/455 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE PREV TAF
FORECASTS. CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NWD AND BREAK UP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LGT FG TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THRU MID MORNING
HOURS. AM A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY WHEN FG WILL BECOME
MVFR...BUT HAVE PUSHED IT BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS AS CLOUDS PERSIST
OVER THE AREA. IF CLOUDS FAIL TO BREAK UP...FG DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL MUCH LATER...NEAR 12Z. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY SHUD BE SKC
WITH LIGHT SE TO ESE WINDS.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KLSX 212146
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/330 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THRU MONDAY
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING DOMINATING AND NUETRAL TO WEAK WAA FORECAST.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY INVOF EXTREME ERN TX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY ON
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWV MOVING THRU THE
GREAT BASIN ATTM. WITH LITTLE REAL OVERALL CHANGE IN THE AIR
MASS...TEMPERATURES WILL TO A DEGREE BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS. MAKING THIS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING IS THE FACT THE
MODEL RH FIELDS HAVE BEEN RATHER POOR OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN
DEPICTING THE CLOUDS. I THINK FOR THE MOST PART THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
WILL DECREASE AND MOVE NNEWD AND THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY WILL RESIDE IN THE WRN PORTION OF MO TOUCHING PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NE MO AS WELL. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE ARE A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE MAIN EMPHASIS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ON THE MID/UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
SPREAD ON THE LOW POSITION BY 00Z WED...BUT IT IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY
GREAT. A CONSENSUS POSITION WOULD BE INVOF SE IA...WITH THE LOW
EXITING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORTWV TROF/UPPER LOW. IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A LEAD
IMPULSE MOVING THRU THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON...WHICH HAS A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF BRINGING A SPRINKLE OR LGT SHOWER TO FAR NRN
SECTIONS. OTHERWISE PCPN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE STG MID/UPPER LOW-TROF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER DISMAL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THE ATTENDANT
CDFNT...HOWEVER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE ROBUST ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SUPPORTIVE OF A BAND OF RAIN WITH
CLOUD BASES IN THE MID LEVELS. ACCORDINGLY I HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN
THE WESTERN CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE ERN CWA ON TUESDAY.
SOME GOOD CAA WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PROBABLY A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATUS.

A CHILLY PERIOD WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SHRTWV
TROF/UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE REGION AND BRING A COLDER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. THERE HAD BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF RUN...THEY HAVE ALL COME ONBOARD. EXPECTING
MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROF BEGINS EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
/1043 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS...4500-9000 FT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH NWD THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND INTO TGT.
MODELS DEPICT HIGH RH BETWEEN 850-700 MB IN HEIGHT THIS AFTN WITH
THIS LAYER GRADUALLY DRYING OUT TGT. CLOUD COVER MAY BECOME PREDOMINATELY
SCT BY LATE TGT AND SUN MRNG. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER LATE TGT AND
EARLY SUN MRNG THERE SHOULD BE LIGHT FOG DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 3-5SM BR. AN E-SELY SFC WND SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TAF SITES WILL BE ON
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RDG CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 212146
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN CWA WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOCALLY POOLED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT
QUICKLY NORTH AND DISSIPATE. AS PER FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST...THE
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...IN AREAS WHERE DEEPER MIXING HAS
OCCURRED. GIVEN INTERVALS OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND STRONGER SE
WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MIXY
NATURE OF THE SOUNDINGS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...STRATUS WOULD LIKELY BE
THE RESULT IF MOISTURE WAS DEEP ENOUGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME...MOIST
LAYER APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE NRN GRIDS TONIGHT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEEPER.

WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG FOR THE NRN GRIDS TONIGHT AND LET THE
EVENING SHIFT MAKE ANY REFINEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

MOISTURE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ENE INTO THE
CWA SUN NIGHT. MOIST IS LIMITED WITH FORCING RATHER WEAK. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN IS LATE MON AFTN AND MON NIGHT WHEN A STG
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE A GENERAL
CONSENSUS IN MVG THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NR THE MO/IA BDR MON NGT AND
TUES WITH A STG WAVE MVG AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MUCH OF THE CWA IS IN THE FAVORABLE QUAD OF A 90KT H3 SPEED MAX
MON NGT WITH A MODEST PVU MAX ROTATING THROUGH MISSOURI. GIVEN THE
LOW STATIC STABILITY AND MODEST QG FORCING...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
LATE MON AFTN AND MON NGT. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPES AROUND 100 J/KG.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WRT TO THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED DIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. DIFFERENCES
IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT AMONG
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE GENERAL IDEA IS CERTAINLY
CONSISTENT. BY TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH LOCATION AND TIMING BY THIS TIME FRAME KEY
IN DETERMINING WHERE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY AND WHEN ITS EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TUESDAY...SLIDING ACTIVITY EAST WITH
TIME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY QUICK ON ITS HEELS. LINGERING PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
MAY BE EVIDENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO
BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL THEN
TRANSLATE ATOP THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEK BRINGING WARMER TEMPS.

DEROCHE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A VFR STRATOCU CLOUD DECK PREVAILED ACR THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS NOTED IN SERN
KS...AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE ERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK DUE TO THE HIGHER STRATOCU DECK. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE MVFR CLOUD DECK MAY CLIP THE TERMINALS LATE
THIS AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE MVFR CLOUD DECK
WILL SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED WITH A MVFR STRATOCU/AC SCT-
BKN DECK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MODEST WINDS...IFR FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ANY MVFR WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFT SUNRISE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUN MORNING.

DB

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE. KS...NONE. &&



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 212052
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS WILL BE OUR
NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A LARGE
SCALE PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED AND NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.

A RATHER FLAT AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. COULD SEE A SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ABOUT IT. STUCK VERY CLOSE TO MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

THE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK. DIGGING
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR ANY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OR WESTERN CANADA.
THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SECOND WAVE STRONGLY DIGGING
IN BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY
BRING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE BY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. THEREFORE CUT TEMPERATURES
STARTING AROUND MIDWEEK. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE OUR
FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK. AM
NOT SEEING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL MISSOURI CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF
THAT SECOND WAVE.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KJLN TAF SITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE TAF STIES LATE THIS MORNING...WILL
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 211726
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1126 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

DENSE FOG WILL BE THE SHORT TERM PROBLEM AS MUCH OF NORTHERN MO IS
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS THE FOG LIFTS TO FORM A STRATUS
DECK. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK TIED TO DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM TX/OK/AR. A WEAK W-E SURFACE RIDGE
CUTTING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA DIVIDES DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH
AND THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
FALL APART TO DAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES
EAST AND DISPLACES THE RIDGE...THUS ALLOWING THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MO. SPECIAL FOG LOOP SUGGESTS THE DENSE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW AND LIKELY TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. BY THIS TIME
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN MO. THE NET
EFFECT IS SUNSHINE COULD BE IN SHORT SUPPLY TODAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
REFLECT THIS IDEA.

LATEST SREF SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBABILITY PROG WHICH CORRECTLY
FORECAST THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG IS SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD FIT
WITH THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE NOW OVER CENTRAL OK ADVECTING NNE ACROSS KS
AND EVENTUALLY NW MO.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MO
VALLEY DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER EASTERN TX. THIS
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT
SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY TO FALL IN OUR CWA.

THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT ANIMAL AS IT
DIVES SOUTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF/GEM ALL
CLOSE OFF THE UPPER CIRCULATION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND GENERAL DEPICTION
OF THE UPPER WAVE. EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE 06Z MODEL RUN IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
THE NAM/ECMWF. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ANOTHER MODEL
RUN OR TWO SHOWING THIS SAME CONSISTENCY SHOULD ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY.

MJ


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A VFR STRATOCU CLOUD DECK PREVAILED ACR THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS NOTED IN SERN
KS...AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE ERN
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK DUE TO THE HIGHER STRATOCU DECK. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE MVFR CLOUD DECK MAY CLIP THE TERMINALS LATE
THIS AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE MVFR CLOUD DECK
WILL SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED WITH A MVFR STRATOCU/AC SCT-
BKN DECK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS...BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MODEST WINDS...IFR FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ANY MVFR WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFT SUNRISE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUN MORNING.

DB

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE. KS...NONE. &&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 211720
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1120 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL PRIMARILY WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY TIMING OF NEXT FROPA THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
GIVING US AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. 11-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS DECK STILL HANGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
WITH LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO NORTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER CIRCULATION CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH DRY SLOTTING OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY FOLLOWED MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES
AS IT HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW 60S AS THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS
UP...DESPITE 850/925MB TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
OVER YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING SHOULD BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY GULF
MOISTURE RETURN. LOOKS DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED FOLLOWING
MET/WRF GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO GULF
MOISTURE RETURN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

THE 00Z GFS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF ON
POSITIONING OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. STILL A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW
CENTER TRACKING ACROSS IOWA..WHILE ECMWF TRACK IT MORE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
-4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -6C...SO LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BASED ON BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE OUR FIRST REAL FREEZE
OF THE SEASON THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH END
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KJLN TAF SITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE TAF STIES LATE THIS MORNING...WILL
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 211703
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1103 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/320 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

MAIN CONCERNS DEAL WITH EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING AND CHANCES OF
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOLID BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE CWA LAST EVENING HAS BROKEN UP THE
PAST FEW HOURS.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS CAUSED BY OUR
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN INDIANA
HAS CAUSED AREAS OF FOG. FEWER OB SITES ARE REPORTING DENSE
FOG...PRIMARILY IN LOW LYING AREAS LIKE CPS/SUS...THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING.  WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AND THE PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS. LIKE YESTERDAY...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING. TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN 5-8KFT AND A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER
CURRENTLY OVER WRN AND SRN MO IS MOVING NEWD INTO THE CWA.  HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH CLEARING
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW AS AREA LIES
UNDER NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION OR SUBSIDENCE BENEATH BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE.

AGREEMENT IN MODELS BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
NAM SLIGHTLY TRAILS THE OTHER MODELS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT CROSSES MO/IL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT OR MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
RAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO SOME DISPARITY WITH THE TIMING OF
A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WITH THE
NAM SHOWING A FROPA ABOUT 6-12 HOURS LATER ON TUESDAY THAN THE
GFS. THE CANADIAN GEM SUPPORTS THE FASTER GFS AND THE ECMWF FAVORS
THE NAM SO USED A COMBINATION OF ALL OF THEM...USING A BLEND OF
THE SREF MEAN AND THE GFS MOS FOR THE MASS FIELDS. THIS CALLS FOR
GOING DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE POPS WITH FROPA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR TEMPS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT SELY WINDS.  WENT TOWARD THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE SUNDAY MONDAY AS I EXPECT MORE SUN AND WINDS
VEERING SLY AHEAD STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1043 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS...4500-9000 FT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH NWD THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND INTO TGT.
MODELS DEPICT HIGH RH BETWEEN 850-700 MB IN HEIGHT THIS AFTN WITH
THIS LAYER GRADUALLY DRYING OUT TGT. CLOUD COVER MAY BECOME PREDOMINATELY
SCT BY LATE TGT AND SUN MRNG. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER LATE TGT AND
EARLY SUN MRNG THERE SHOULD BE LIGHT FOG DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 3-5SM BR. AN E-SELY SFC WND SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TAF SITES WILL BE ON
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RDG CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KLSX 211146
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
546 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/320 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

MAIN CONCERNS DEAL WITH EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING AND CHANCES OF
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOLID BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE CWA LAST EVENING HAS BROKEN UP THE
PAST FEW HOURS.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS CAUSED BY OUR
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN INDIANA
HAS CAUSED AREAS OF FOG. FEWER OB SITES ARE REPORTING DENSE
FOG...PRIMARILY IN LOW LYING AREAS LIKE CPS/SUS...THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING.  WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AND THE PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS. LIKE YESTERDAY...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING. TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN 5-8KFT AND A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER
CURRENTLY OVER WRN AND SRN MO IS MOVING NEWD INTO THE CWA.  HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH CLEARING
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW AS AREA LIES
UNDER NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION OR SUBSIDENCE BENEATH BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE.

AGREEMENT IN MODELS BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
NAM SLIGHTLY TRAILS THE OTHER MODELS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT CROSSES MO/IL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT OR MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
RAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO SOME DISPARITY WITH THE TIMING OF
A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WITH THE
NAM SHOWING A FROPA ABOUT 6-12 HOURS LATER ON TUESDAY THAN THE
GFS. THE CANADIAN GEM SUPPORTS THE FASTER GFS AND THE ECMWF FAVORS
THE NAM SO USED A COMBINATION OF ALL OF THEM...USING A BLEND OF
THE SREF MEAN AND THE GFS MOS FOR THE MASS FIELDS. THIS CALLS FOR
GOING DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE POPS WITH FROPA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR TEMPS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT SELY WINDS.  WENT TOWARD THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE SUNDAY MONDAY AS I EXPECT MORE SUN AND WINDS
VEERING SLY AHEAD STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/540 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IS FOG...BUT THE FOG IS
NEITHER AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY. MOST
OF THE FOG IS MVFR...WITH INTERMITTENT DROPS BELOW 3 MILES. A FEW
SPOTS...PRIMARILY IN RIVER VALLEYS...HAVE REPORTED LIFR CONDITIONS.
I EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z AFTER SUNRISE.
SOME OF THE THICKER STUFF COULD HANG AROUND AS LONG AS 15Z. AFTER
15Z I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND
6000FT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CHURNS SLOWLY OVER THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA GULF COAST TODAY BRINGING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING UP INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 211141
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
541 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

DENSE FOG WILL BE THE SHORT TERM PROBLEM AS MUCH OF NORTHERN MO IS
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS THE FOG LIFTS TO FORM A STRATUS
DECK. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK TIED TO DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM TX/OK/AR. A WEAK W-E SURFACE RIDGE
CUTTING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA DIVIDES DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH
AND THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
FALL APART TO DAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES
EAST AND DISPLACES THE RIDGE...THUS ALLOWING THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MO. SPECIAL FOG LOOP SUGGESTS THE DENSE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW AND LIKELY TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. BY THIS TIME
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN MO. THE NET
EFFECT IS SUNSHINE COULD BE IN SHORT SUPPLY TODAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
REFLECT THIS IDEA.

LATEST SREF SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBABILITY PROG WHICH CORRECTLY
FORECAST THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG IS SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD FIT
WITH THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE NOW OVER CENTRAL OK ADVECTING NNE ACROSS KS
AND EVENTUALLY NW MO.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MO
VALLEY DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER EASTERN TX. THIS
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT
SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY TO FALL IN OUR CWA.

THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT ANIMAL AS IT
DIVES SOUTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF/GEM ALL
CLOSE OFF THE UPPER CIRCULATION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND GENERAL DEPICTION
OF THE UPPER WAVE. EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE 06Z MODEL RUN IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
THE NAM/ECMWF. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ANOTHER MODEL
RUN OR TWO SHOWING THIS SAME CONSISTENCY SHOULD ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY.

MJ


&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS AGAIN FOCUSED ON THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REGIONAL FOG PLOT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI WITH A DECK OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH INTO
THE KANSAS CITY METRO. WITH THIS DECK EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE METRO
SITES DURING A TIME WHEN PEAK FOG FORMATION WOULD TYPICALLY OCCUR THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL AT MCI LOOKS SMALL RIGHT NOW. DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THIS STRATUS HAVE VARIED FROM 2900 FT TO GREATER
THAN 3500 FT. SO WILL MENTION CIGS AROUND 3000 FT. BUT THESE COULD
REALLY VARY FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR LATER THIS MORNING. AT STJ DENSE FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. ALL SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOWER CIGS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE SO CONFIDENCE IS
STILL SOMEWHAT LOW ON JUST HOW DENSE FOG MAY BE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>024.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-102.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 211057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
457 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL PRIMARILY WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY TIMING OF NEXT FROPA THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
GIVING US AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. 11-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS DECK STILL HANGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
WITH LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO NORTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER CIRCULATION CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH DRY SLOTTING OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY FOLLOWED MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES
AS IT HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW 60S AS THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS
UP...DESPITE 850/925MB TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
OVER YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING SHOULD BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY GULF
MOISTURE RETURN. LOOKS DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED FOLLOWING
MET/WRF GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO GULF
MOISTURE RETURN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

THE 00Z GFS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF ON
POSITIONING OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. STILL A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW
CENTER TRACKING ACROSS IOWA..WHILE ECMWF TRACK IT MORE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
-4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -6C...SO LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BASED ON BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE OUR FIRST REAL FREEZE
OF THE SEASON THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...JLN/BBG ON THE EDGE OF VFR/MVFR CATEGORY AND
BELIEVE MVFR MAY BE POSSIBLE BY 13-14Z THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 211022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DENSE FOG WILL BE THE SHORT TERM PROBLEM AS MUCH OF NORTHERN MO IS
EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS THE FOG LIFTS TO FORM A STRATUS
DECK. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK TIED TO DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM TX/OK/AR. A WEAK W-E SURFACE RIDGE
CUTTING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA DIVIDES DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH
AND THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
FALL APART TO DAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES
EAST AND DISPLACES THE RIDGE...THUS ALLOWING THE LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MO. SPECIAL FOG LOOP SUGGESTS THE DENSE FOG IS
RATHER SHALLOW AND LIKELY TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. BY THIS TIME
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN MO. THE NET
EFFECT IS SUNSHINE COULD BE IN SHORT SUPPLY TODAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
REFLECT THIS IDEA.

LATEST SREF SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBABILITY PROG WHICH CORRECTLY
FORECAST THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG IS SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD FIT
WITH THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE NOW OVER CENTRAL OK ADVECTING NNE ACROSS KS
AND EVENTUALLY NW MO.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MO
VALLEY DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
DIVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER EASTERN TX. THIS
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT
SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY TO FALL IN OUR CWA.

THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT ANIMAL AS IT
DIVES SOUTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF/GEM ALL
CLOSE OFF THE UPPER CIRCULATION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND GENERAL DEPICTION
OF THE UPPER WAVE. EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE 06Z MODEL RUN IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH
THE NAM/ECMWF. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ANOTHER MODEL
RUN OR TWO SHOWING THIS SAME CONSISTENCY SHOULD ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...OVERALL...THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG REMAINS IN
PLAY FOR KSTJ AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KMCI. TERMINAL CURRENTLY
REPORTS LIFR CONDITIONS AND VLIFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH KMCI TO SOUTH OF
KIRK WILL BE THE DEMARCATION LINE BETWEEN DENSE FOG NORTH OF THIS
AXIS AND MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO THE SOUTH. THIS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO KMCI WILL BE ON THE BORDERLINE
AND HENCE COULD GO EITHER WAY WITH YEA/NAY ON DENSE FOG. WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDING A FEW AMENDMENTS FOR KMCI.

THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD
LAST FOR THE ENTIRE MORNING. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS/DISSIPATES AM STILL
EXPECTING TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PULLS UP THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD FIELD NOW COVERING OK/SOUTH CENTRAL KS/SOUTHERN
MO.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 210925
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/320 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

MAIN CONCERNS DEAL WITH EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING AND CHANCES OF
RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOLID BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE CWA LAST EVENING HAS BROKEN UP THE
PAST FEW HOURS.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS CAUSED BY OUR
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN INDIANA
HAS CAUSED AREAS OF FOG. FEWER OB SITES ARE REPORTING DENSE
FOG...PRIMARILY IN LOW LYING AREAS LIKE CPS/SUS...THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING.  WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AND THE PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS. LIKE YESTERDAY...FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING. TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING HIGH RH VALUES
THROUGH TONIGHT BETWEEN 5-8KFT AND A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER
CURRENTLY OVER WRN AND SRN MO IS MOVING NEWD INTO THE CWA.  HAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA TODAY WITH CLEARING
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW AS AREA LIES
UNDER NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION OR SUBSIDENCE BENEATH BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE.

AGREEMENT IN MODELS BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
NAM SLIGHTLY TRAILS THE OTHER MODELS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT CROSSES MO/IL ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT OR MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
RAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO SOME DISPARITY WITH THE TIMING OF
A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WITH THE
NAM SHOWING A FROPA ABOUT 6-12 HOURS LATER ON TUESDAY THAN THE
GFS. THE CANADIAN GEM SUPPORTS THE FASTER GFS AND THE ECMWF FAVORS
THE NAM SO USED A COMBINATION OF ALL OF THEM...USING A BLEND OF
THE SREF MEAN AND THE GFS MOS FOR THE MASS FIELDS. THIS CALLS FOR
GOING DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANCE POPS WITH FROPA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR TEMPS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT SELY WINDS.  WENT TOWARD THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE SUNDAY MONDAY AS I EXPECT MORE SUN AND WINDS
VEERING SLY AHEAD STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1055 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...HIGH SC/LOW AC HAS SPREAD OVER REGION...
ESPECIALLY OVER TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BASICALLY STALLED
ANY FOG FORMATION. SO BACKED OFF ON HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
SOME MVFR FOG AT KCOU AND KSTL AFTER 10Z...WHILE KSUS AND KUIN COULD
SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR MVFR/IFR FOG TO FORM...WITH
TEMPOS OF VSBYS DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY MVFR/IFR
CIGS TONIGHT...JUST VFR CIGS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TODAY...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 210723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
123 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL PRIMARILY WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY TIMING OF NEXT FROPA THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING
GIVING US AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. 11-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING STRATUS DECK STILL HANGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM
WITH LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO NORTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER CIRCULATION CONTINUES OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH DRY SLOTTING OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY FOLLOWED MET GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES
AS IT HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW 60S AS THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS
UP...DESPITE 850/925MB TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
OVER YESTERDAY. THIS COOLING SHOULD BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE DAY...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY GULF
MOISTURE RETURN. LOOKS DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED FOLLOWING
MET/WRF GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. GFS DOES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO GULF
MOISTURE RETURN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

THE 00Z GFS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF ON
POSITIONING OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. STILL A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW
CENTER TRACKING ACROSS IOWA..WHILE ECMWF TRACK IT MORE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
-4C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -6C...SO LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BASED ON BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE OUR FIRST REAL FREEZE
OF THE SEASON THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AREA WIDE.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 21/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...CLOUD COVER/VFR CEILINGS
CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS
LURKING HERE AND THERE AS WELL. PROGGED (AND OBSERVED 00Z) SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUDS/MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2KM AS
WELL...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THINNING OR CLEARING IN
SPOTS...AND WHERE CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH RADIATION FOG. ALL IN ALL...TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT WENT WITH MORE OF CLOUDY (MAINLY
MVFR CEILING CATEGORY) SCENARIO WITH A BRIEF CHANCE OF SOME IFR
VISIBILITY NEAR SUNRISE /11Z-14Z.

DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 210557
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1157 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK SFC RIDGE REMAINS STATIONED
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SFC WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. BROAD TROUGH
WILL ENGULF THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT LEADING TO PRESSURE FALLS ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A MORE SOUTHERLY LLVL
FLOW REGIME BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COMPLICATED
FORECAST DEALING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AS A
COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL LIKELY BE AT
WORK. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
ATTM WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND OZARKS. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS ALLOWING FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO COMMENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO COME CLOSE TO SATURATION AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMATION BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA ALLOWING LLVL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO MAKE A DECENT SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER AS THIS OCCURS...SFC FLOW
WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT AS THE SFC RIDGE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE
EXTENT AND DENSITY OF FOG WHERE RADIATIONAL PROCESSES DOMINATE. WILL
INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE IT TO
LATER SHIFTS TO HOIST ANY ADVISORIES AS MORE CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION...TIMING...AND DENSITY IS GAINED. FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY BURNING OFF.

BY TOMORROW...LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY
LLVL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ACROSS MOST AREAS. SFC FRONT WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO
THE ROCKIES AND FURTHER PRESSURE FALLS TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY LIKELY
BRINGING THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE CWA AND BRING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

FOR NEXT WORK WEEK THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT WILL POSSIBLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK WITH A MODESTLY LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BE CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING ITS DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE TIMING IS A BIT OF AN ISSUE.
LATEST RUN OF THE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER AS IT IS THE
FASTEST SOLUTION. GEM/ECMWF/UKMET ALL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING MORE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE JET ROUNDING ITS BASE.

SO...WHILE TIMING PREFERENCE IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM
COMBINATION...THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS FAIRLY
CHAOTIC. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING THE INITIAL TROUGH DIGGING STRAIGHT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DIGGING INTO ITS BACK SIDE AND RELOADING THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY.
THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE FEATURE MORE AS ONE COHERENT SHORT LIVED
CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES INTO AND THEN BACK OUT OFF THE PLAINS. HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THE VERITY AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SET OF SOLUTIONS. CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEEMS TO STILL
BE A GOOD IDEA...THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT VAGUE. GENERAL TREND
WOULD AT LEAST INDICATE THAT...GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF OF THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE TROUGH...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. SO...FOR NOW HAVE SIMPLY KEPT OUR GOING PRECIPITATION
AS RAIN. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY
AS SOME FORM OF RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...
PUSHING THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

CUTTER


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...OVERALL...THERE WERE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG REMAINS IN
PLAY FOR KSTJ AND TO A LESSER DEGREE KMCI. TERMINAL CURRENTLY
REPORTS LIFR CONDITIONS AND VLIFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH KMCI TO SOUTH OF
KIRK WILL BE THE DEMARCATION LINE BETWEEN DENSE FOG NORTH OF THIS
AXIS AND MVFR STRATUS/FOG TO THE SOUTH. THIS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO KMCI WILL BE ON THE BORDERLINE
AND HENCE COULD GO EITHER WAY WITH YEA/NAY ON DENSE FOG. WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDING A FEW AMENDMENTS FOR KMCI.

THE DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING AND COULD
LAST FOR THE ENTIRE MORNING. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS/DISSIPATES AM STILL
EXPECTING TO SEE CONSIDERABLE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PULLS UP THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD FIELD NOW COVERING OK/SOUTH CENTRAL KS/SOUTHERN
MO.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 210547
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

IT WAS A MILD AND RELATIVELY QUIET DAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...WHICH BECAME A FOCUS FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS WERE CONFINED TO MCDONALD...NEWTON...AND
BARRY COUNTIES.  ALL OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINED DRY.

THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...CAUSING THE LOWER TROP TO BECOME VERY SATURATED BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN.  I WILL
ADD AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO THIS AREA FROM 9Z - 15Z.  DUE TO EXISTING
CLOUD COVER...I OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY JUST
YET...AND WILL ALLOW THE EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR AND PINPOINT WHICH
COUNTIES MAY NEED ONE.  WEAK SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONDUCIVE
INGREDIENT FOR DENSE FOG.

LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.
AGAIN...MOST AREAS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL EXPERIENCE THESE SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT RAIN.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 71...WHICH ENCOMPASSES FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING A SHIELD OF
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AREAS OF HOWELL OR
OREGON COUNTY MAY BE CLIPPED BY THIS SHIELD OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.  IF RAIN DOES OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...THEN
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.  THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACHING THE LOWER
60S.  A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL
ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL CAUSE A DECENT
COOL DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST...CAUSES A PIPELINE OF
CANADIAN AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THIS WAVE
INFLECTION...REINFORCING A CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
OZARKS.  DESPITE THIS COLD AND DREARY PATTERN...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS FROM MODEL OUTPUT THAT WOULD SUGGEST FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

CRAMER


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 21/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...CLOUD COVER/VFR CEILINGS
CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES...WITH SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS
LURKING HERE AND THERE AS WELL. PROGGED (AND OBSERVED 00Z) SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT CLOUDS/MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2KM AS
WELL...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THINNING OR CLEARING IN
SPOTS...AND WHERE CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH RADIATION FOG. ALL IN ALL...TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT WENT WITH MORE OF CLOUDY (MAINLY
MVFR CEILING CATEGORY) SCENARIO WITH A BRIEF CHANCE OF SOME IFR
VISIBILITY NEAR SUNRISE /11Z-14Z. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 210455
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1055 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...
/807 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

OVERNIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST IN LIGHT OF
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SC/LOW AC CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS A
RESPONSE TO NARROW BUT INTENSE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOST NOTICEABLE
AT THE 290K LEVEL. MODELS TAKE THIS LIFT AND MAINTAIN IT THRU THE
NIGHT AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND EVENTUALLY EXPAND IT INTO NERN
MO/WCNTRL IL. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KILL WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT FOR AREAS THAT CAN COOL
RAPIDLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR NRN FA AROUND QUINCY BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ROLL IN...AREAS OF FOG STILL EXPECTED TO FORM ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE NEAR SUNRISE WHEN VSBYS ARE NORMALLY AT THEIR
WORST. SERN MO WILL BE JUST S OF THE BETTER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SO WILL HAVE ENOUGH HOLES IN THE CLOUDS TO ALSO COOL OFF AND SO
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG GIVEN THEIR RELATIVELY HIGH CROSSOVER
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
INCREASE BY SEVERAL DEGS FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT MAINTAINED THE
COOL PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR OTHER AREAS.

TES
&&

.DISCUSSION...
/319 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM N-NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF MO
AHEAD OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER TX. LIGHT RAIN MOVING NEWD
INTO SWRN MO BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL REMAIN S
OF THE CWA. SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THOUGH TGT INTO SAT
AS MODELS BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CENTERED AROUND 850 MB IN
HEIGHT NWD. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING TDA ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THERE SHOULD STILL
BE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TGT. THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS LAST NGT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS WELL. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE SRN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EWD THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAKER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
WHICH WILL MOVE EWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
MAIN SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED E OF THE CWA WITH MAINLY SELY SFC
WINDS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NAM MODEL GENERATES QPF OVER THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUN NGT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING EWD THRU THE REGION
AND N OF A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NWD THRU ERN AR. DISCOUNTED THIS AS
NO OTHER MODEL FITS THIS SOLUTION NOR DOES THE PREVIOUS NAM MODEL
RUNS GENERATE THIS RAIN SUN NGT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MON NGT AND TUE AS A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW AND ASSOCIATED
CDFNT/SFC LOW MOVE EWD THRU THE REGION. STILL A LOT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER S. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
MON NGT AND TUE...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION...
/1055 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...HIGH SC/LOW AC HAS SPREAD OVER REGION...
ESPECIALLY OVER TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BASICALLY STALLED
ANY FOG FORMATION. SO BACKED OFF ON HOW MUCH FOG WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
SOME MVFR FOG AT KCOU AND KSTL AFTER 10Z...WHILE KSUS AND KUIN COULD
SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR MVFR/IFR FOG TO FORM...WITH
TEMPOS OF VSBYS DOWN TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY MVFR/IFR
CIGS TONIGHT...JUST VFR CIGS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY TODAY...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KLSX 210207
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
807 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...
/807 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

OVERNIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST IN LIGHT OF
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SC/LOW AC CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS A
RESPONSE TO NARROW BUT INTENSE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOST NOTICEABLE
AT THE 290K LEVEL. MODELS TAKE THIS LIFT AND MAINTAIN IT THRU THE
NIGHT AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND EVENTUALLY EXPAND IT INTO NERN
MO/WCNTRL IL. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KILL WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT FOR AREAS THAT CAN COOL
RAPIDLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR NRN FA AROUND QUINCY BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ROLL IN...AREAS OF FOG STILL EXPECTED TO FORM ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE NEAR SUNRISE WHEN VSBYS ARE NORMALLY AT THEIR
WORST. SERN MO WILL BE JUST S OF THE BETTER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SO WILL HAVE ENOUGH HOLES IN THE CLOUDS TO ALSO COOL OFF AND SO
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG GIVEN THEIR RELATIVELY HIGH CROSSOVER
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
INCREASE BY SEVERAL DEGS FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT MAINTAINED THE
COOL PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR OTHER AREAS.

TES

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/319 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM N-NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF MO
AHEAD OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER TX. LIGHT RAIN MOVING NEWD
INTO SWRN MO BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL REMAIN S
OF THE CWA. SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THOUGH TGT INTO SAT
AS MODELS BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CENTERED AROUND 850 MB IN
HEIGHT NWD. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING TDA ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THERE SHOULD STILL
BE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TGT. THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS LAST NGT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS WELL. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE SRN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EWD THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAKER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
WHICH WILL MOVE EWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
MAIN SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED E OF THE CWA WITH MAINLY SELY SFC
WINDS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NAM MODEL GENERATES QPF OVER THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUN NGT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING EWD THRU THE REGION
AND N OF A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NWD THRU ERN AR. DISCOUNTED THIS AS
NO OTHER MODEL FITS THIS SOLUTION NOR DOES THE PREVIOUS NAM MODEL
RUNS GENERATE THIS RAIN SUN NGT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MON NGT AND TUE AS A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW AND ASSOCIATED
CDFNT/SFC LOW MOVE EWD THRU THE REGION. STILL A LOT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER S. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
MON NGT AND TUE...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
/550 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS FINALLY DISSIPATED/MOVED AWAY FROM
KUIN. IN THE MEANTIME...SC STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI...WITH SOME CIRRUS BLANKETING THE AREA AS WELL. COVERAGE OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FLOW IS
WEAK...GENERALLY A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG. SO KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSYBS INTO IFR CAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KLSX 210205
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
805 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/805 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

OVERNIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST IN LIGHT OF
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SC/LOW AC CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS A
RESPONSE TO NARROW BUT INTENSE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOST NOTICEABLE
AT THE 290K LEVEL. MODELS TAKE THIS LIFT AND MAINTAIN IT THRU THE
NIGHT AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND EVENTUALLY EXPAND IT INTO NERN
MO/WCNTRL IL. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KILL WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT FOR AREAS THAT CAN COOL
RAPIDLY ENOUGH IN THE FAR NRN FA AROUND QUINCY BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ROLL IN...AREAS OF FOG STILL EXPECTED TO FORM ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE NEAR SUNRISE WHEN VSBYS ARE NORMALLY AT THEIR
WORST. SERN MO WILL BE JUST S OF THE BETTER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
SO WILL HAVE ENOUGH HOLES IN THE CLOUDS TO ALSO COOL OFF AND SO
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG GIVEN THEIR RELATIVELY HIGH CROSSOVER
TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
INCREASE BY SEVERAL DEGS FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT MAINTAINED THE
COOL PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR OTHER AREAS.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/550 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS FINALLY DISSIPATED/MOVED AWAY FROM
KUIN. IN THE MEANTIME...SC STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI...WITH SOME CIRRUS BLANKETING THE AREA AS WELL. COVERAGE OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FLOW IS
WEAK...GENERALLY A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG. SO KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSYBS INTO IFR CAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 210003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

IT WAS A MILD AND RELATIVELY QUIET DAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...WHICH BECAME A FOCUS FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS WERE CONFINED TO MCDONALD...NEWTON...AND
BARRY COUNTIES.  ALL OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINED DRY.

THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...CAUSING THE LOWER TROP TO BECOME VERY SATURATED BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN.  I WILL
ADD AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO THIS AREA FROM 9Z - 15Z.  DUE TO EXISTING
CLOUD COVER...I OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY JUST
YET...AND WILL ALLOW THE EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR AND PINPOINT WHICH
COUNTIES MAY NEED ONE.  WEAK SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONDUCIVE
INGREDIENT FOR DENSE FOG.

LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.
AGAIN...MOST AREAS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL EXPERIENCE THESE SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT RAIN.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 71...WHICH ENCOMPASSES FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING A SHIELD OF
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AREAS OF HOWELL OR
OREGON COUNTY MAY BE CLIPPED BY THIS SHIELD OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.  IF RAIN DOES OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...THEN
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.  THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACHING THE LOWER
60S.  A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL
ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL CAUSE A DECENT
COOL DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST...CAUSES A PIPELINE OF
CANADIAN AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THIS WAVE
INFLECTION...REINFORCING A CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
OZARKS.  DESPITE THIS COLD AND DREARY PATTERN...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS FROM MODEL OUTPUT THAT WOULD SUGGEST FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

CRAMER


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 21/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN OK INTO SOUTHERN MO. VFR CEILINGS WERE COMMON OVER
SOUTHERN MO...WITH MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS FARTHER SOUTH INTO NW AR
AND EASTERN OK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS
PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT
LOWER CLOUDS EXTEND WELL BACK TO THE WEST...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) SEEM TO
BE PEGGING CLOUDS RATHER THAN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
WENT CLOSER TO SREF GUIDANCE WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CATEGORY FOG. SHOULD SEE A GRADUALLY LIFTING MVFR/VFR
CEILING BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. DSA



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 202350
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
550 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/319 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM N-NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF MO
AHEAD OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER TX. LIGHT RAIN MOVING NEWD
INTO SWRN MO BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL REMAIN S
OF THE CWA. SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THOUGH TGT INTO SAT
AS MODELS BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CENTERED AROUND 850 MB IN
HEIGHT NWD. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING TDA ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THERE SHOULD STILL
BE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TGT. THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS LAST NGT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS WELL. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE SRN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EWD THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAKER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF
WHICH WILL MOVE EWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
MAIN SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED E OF THE CWA WITH MAINLY SELY SFC
WINDS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NAM MODEL GENERATES QPF OVER THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUN NGT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING EWD THRU THE REGION
AND N OF A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NWD THRU ERN AR. DISCOUNTED THIS AS
NO OTHER MODEL FITS THIS SOLUTION NOR DOES THE PREVIOUS NAM MODEL
RUNS GENERATE THIS RAIN SUN NGT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD OCCUR
MON NGT AND TUE AS A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW AND ASSOCIATED
CDFNT/SFC LOW MOVE EWD THRU THE REGION. STILL A LOT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER S. FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR
MON NGT AND TUE...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION...
/550 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS FINALLY DISSIPATED/MOVED AWAY FROM
KUIN. IN THE MEANTIME...SC STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI...WITH SOME CIRRUS BLANKETING THE AREA AS WELL. COVERAGE OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR TONIGHT. FOR NOW
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FLOW IS
WEAK...GENERALLY A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG. SO KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AND LOWERING
CIGS/VSYBS INTO IFR CAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...BEFORE IMPROVING
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 202350
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK SFC RIDGE REMAINS STATIONED
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SFC WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. BROAD TROUGH
WILL ENGULF THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT LEADING TO PRESSURE FALLS ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A MORE SOUTHERLY LLVL
FLOW REGIME BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COMPLICATED
FORECAST DEALING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AS A
COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL LIKELY BE AT
WORK. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
ATTM WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND OZARKS. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS ALLOWING FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO COMMENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO COME CLOSE TO SATURATION AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMATION BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA ALLOWING LLVL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO MAKE A DECENT SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER AS THIS OCCURS...SFC FLOW
WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT AS THE SFC RIDGE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE
EXTENT AND DENSITY OF FOG WHERE RADIATIONAL PROCESSES DOMINATE. WILL
INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE IT TO
LATER SHIFTS TO HOIST ANY ADVISORIES AS MORE CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION...TIMING...AND DENSITY IS GAINED. FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY BURNING OFF.

BY TOMORROW...LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY
LLVL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ACROSS MOST AREAS. SFC FRONT WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO
THE ROCKIES AND FURTHER PRESSURE FALLS TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY LIKELY
BRINGING THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE CWA AND BRING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.

DEROCHE

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

FOR NEXT WORK WEEK THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT WILL POSSIBLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK WITH A MODESTLY LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BE CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING ITS DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE TIMING IS A BIT OF AN ISSUE.
LATEST RUN OF THE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER AS IT IS THE
FASTEST SOLUTION. GEM/ECMWF/UKMET ALL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING MORE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE JET ROUNDING ITS BASE.

SO...WHILE TIMING PREFERENCE IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM
COMBINATION...THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS FAIRLY
CHAOTIC. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING THE INITIAL TROUGH DIGGING STRAIGHT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DIGGING INTO ITS BACK SIDE AND RELOADING THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY.
THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE FEATURE MORE AS ONE COHERENT SHORT LIVED
CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES INTO AND THEN BACK OUT OFF THE PLAINS. HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THE VERITY AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SET OF SOLUTIONS. CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEEMS TO STILL
BE A GOOD IDEA...THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT VAGUE. GENERAL TREND
WOULD AT LEAST INDICATE THAT...GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF OF THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE TROUGH...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. SO...FOR NOW HAVE SIMPLY KEPT OUR GOING PRECIPITATION
AS RAIN. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY
AS SOME FORM OF RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...
PUSHING THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

CUTTER


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CONCERN ONCE AGAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK IN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
WOULD MOVE NORTH INTO THE TERMINALS. LATEST STLT LOOP SHOWS THE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WAS QUITE SLOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH.
THEREFORE... THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG IS INCREASING. SREP GUIDANCE
PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO RIGHT AT THE THRESHOLD FOR DENSE FOG...MAINLY
AT MCI AND STJ. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE INTERVALS OF AC THAT
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...MOIST AIR MASS AND WET GROUND...HAVE DECIDED TO
LOWER VSBYS FOR TONIGHTS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT KMCI AND KSTJ. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT VSBYS MAY DROP TO THE VLIFR CATEGORY FOR KMCI AND
KSTJ. THE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT SAT MORNING DUE TO POOR INSOLATION
AND A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK WILL FORM AFTER FOG
DISSIPATION.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 202204
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WEAK SFC RIDGE REMAINS STATIONED
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SFC WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. BROAD TROUGH
WILL ENGULF THE WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT LEADING TO PRESSURE FALLS ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A MORE SOUTHERLY LLVL
FLOW REGIME BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. COMPLICATED
FORECAST DEALING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AS A
COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL LIKELY BE AT
WORK. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
ATTM WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND OZARKS. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS ALLOWING FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO COMMENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO COME CLOSE TO SATURATION AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMATION BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA ALLOWING LLVL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER TO MAKE A DECENT SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER AS THIS OCCURS...SFC FLOW
WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT AS THE SFC RIDGE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRESSURE CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE
EXTENT AND DENSITY OF FOG WHERE RADIATIONAL PROCESSES DOMINATE. WILL
INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE IT TO
LATER SHIFTS TO HOIST ANY ADVISORIES AS MORE CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION...TIMING...AND DENSITY IS GAINED. FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY BURNING OFF.

BY TOMORROW...LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY
LLVL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ACROSS MOST AREAS. SFC FRONT WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL KANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO
THE ROCKIES AND FURTHER PRESSURE FALLS TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY LIKELY
BRINGING THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE CWA AND BRING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.

DEROCHE


MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

FOR NEXT WORK WEEK THE PRIMARY WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT WILL POSSIBLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK WITH A MODESTLY LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BE CONSISTENT IN
ADVERTISING ITS DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE TIMING IS A BIT OF AN ISSUE.
LATEST RUN OF THE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER AS IT IS THE
FASTEST SOLUTION. GEM/ECMWF/UKMET ALL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING MORE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PLAINS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE JET ROUNDING ITS BASE.

SO...WHILE TIMING PREFERENCE IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM
COMBINATION...THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS FAIRLY
CHAOTIC. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING THE INITIAL TROUGH DIGGING STRAIGHT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DIGGING INTO ITS BACK SIDE AND RELOADING THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY.
THE GEM AND ECMWF KEEP THE FEATURE MORE AS ONE COHERENT SHORT LIVED
CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES INTO AND THEN BACK OUT OFF THE PLAINS. HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THE VERITY AND THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT SET OF SOLUTIONS. CHANCE POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEEMS TO STILL
BE A GOOD IDEA...THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT VAGUE. GENERAL TREND
WOULD AT LEAST INDICATE THAT...GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF OF THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE TROUGH...IT SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. SO...FOR NOW HAVE SIMPLY KEPT OUR GOING PRECIPITATION
AS RAIN. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY
AS SOME FORM OF RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...
PUSHING THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LINGERING FOG FINALLY
ERODING AND REMAINING AMOUNT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT CONCERN SURFACES TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD BRINGING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE AREA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS AFFECTS ON
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVECTION PROCESSES MAY OVERWHELM
THESE CONCERNS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN REGARDLESS. WILL PLAY THE
CONSERVATIVE ROAD FOR THE TIME BEING AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
IN A FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE.

DEROCHE


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 202127
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/319 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM N-NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF MO
AHEAD OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER TX. LIGHT RAIN MOVING NEWD
INTO SWRN MO BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL REMAIN S
OF THE CWA. SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THOUGH TGT INTO SAT
AS MODELS BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CENTERED AROUND 850 MB IN
HEIGHT NWD. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING TDA ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THERE SHOULD STILL
BE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TGT. THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS LAST NGT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS WELL. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA
THIS WEEKEND AS THE SRN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EWD THRU THE
GULF COAST REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAKER MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROF WHICH WILL MOVE EWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
MAIN SFC RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED E OF THE CWA WITH MAINLY SELY SFC
WINDS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NAM MODEL GENERATES QPF OVER THE SERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUN NGT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING EWD THRU THE
REGION AND N OF A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NWD THRU ERN AR. DISCOUNTED
THIS AS NO OTHER MODEL FITS THIS SOLUTION NOR DOES THE PREVIOUS
NAM MODEL RUNS GENERATE THIS RAIN SUN NGT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR MON NGT AND TUE AS A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW
AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT/SFC LOW MOVE EWD THRU THE REGION. STILL A LOT
OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. THE
GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N WITH
THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER S. FOR NOW JUST
INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR MON NGT AND TUE...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR WED AND THU.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
/1258 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE ONLY SITE WITH MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE KUIN WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST A
FEW MORE HOURS THEN BECOME SCT BY MID AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...WATCHING THE DECK OF 5-7K FT CLOUDS IN SW MO TRYING TO
ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY HAVE BEEN FRAGMENTING IN THE
PROCESS BUT SHOULD MAKE SOME GRADUAL INROADS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOW QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS ADVANCE AND THE COVERAGE
WILL STRONGLY DICTATE THE CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FLOW IS
WEAK...GENERALLY A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG. IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED 5-7K FT CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST AND STAY
OVERCAST...THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLING TONIGHT AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ATTM I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE
SOME COOLING AND LOWERING CIGS/VSYBS INTO IFR CAT DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS MORE OPTOMISTIC THAN MUCH OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 202041
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

IT WAS A MILD AND RELATIVELY QUIET DAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...WHICH BECAME A FOCUS FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS WERE CONFINED TO MCDONALD...NEWTON...AND
BARRY COUNTIES.  ALL OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINED DRY.

THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...CAUSING THE LOWER TROP TO BECOME VERY SATURATED BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN.  I WILL
ADD AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO THIS AREA FROM 9Z - 15Z.  DUE TO EXISTING
CLOUD COVER...I OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY JUST
YET...AND WILL ALLOW THE EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR AND PINPOINT WHICH
COUNTIES MAY NEED ONE.  WEAK SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONDUCIVE
INGREDIENT FOR DENSE FOG.

LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.
AGAIN...MOST AREAS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL EXPERIENCE THESE SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT RAIN.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60...AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 71...WHICH ENCOMPASSES FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING A SHIELD OF
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AREAS OF HOWELL OR
OREGON COUNTY MAY BE CLIPPED BY THIS SHIELD OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.  IF RAIN DOES OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...THEN
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.  THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY AND MILD...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REACHING THE LOWER
60S.  A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WILL
ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL CAUSE A DECENT
COOL DOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS
A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST...CAUSES A PIPELINE OF
CANADIAN AIR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THIS WAVE
INFLECTION...REINFORCING A CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
OZARKS.  DESPITE THIS COLD AND DREARY PATTERN...THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS FROM MODEL OUTPUT THAT WOULD SUGGEST FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

CRAMER



&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE...CONTINUED TO BRING CEILINGS
DOWN GRADUALLY THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR
PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER WITH NAM MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST
MO...SO WE COULD SEE LOWER CLOUDS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TERRY
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 201900
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/317 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST INCLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP LATE
LAST EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS BECAUSE OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACTING ON A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DENSE FOG
HAS NOT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SCT-BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OUT OF
NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR UP UNTIL FORECAST ISSUANCE
BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH 15Z.

NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS MO/IL TONIGHT.  TIME CROSS SECTIONS ON THE MODELS SHOW A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IT REMAINS DRY IN THE MID
LEVELS WHERE A NARROW WINDOW OF MODEST ASCENT EXISTS. THIS
WARRANTS KEEPING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROM CNTRL MO INTO E CNTRL/NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS RAIN FROM CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
LWR MS VALLEY STAYS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPE AS WE GO INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
NEXT WEEK. ALREADY HAVE CHANCE OF RAIN GOING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE NRN CONUS. LATEST
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF DEPICT THIS CLOSED LOW MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT MIDWEEK WHEREAS THE GFS BEGINS TO
OPEN IT UP AND MOVE IT NEWD. TOO MANY QUESTIONS TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TODAY FOR TEMPS BECAUSE OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT SELY WINDS AND A COOL START IN THE 30S THIS
MORNING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS...SREF MEAN AND LOCAL
WRF THEREAFTER.

BRITT



&&

.AVIATION...CORRECTION
/1258 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE ONLY SITE WITH MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE KUIN WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST A
FEW MORE HOURS THEN BECOME SCT BY MID AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...WATCHING THE DECK OF 5-7K FT CLOUDS IN SW MO TRYING TO
ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY HAVE BEEN FRAGMENTING IN THE
PROCESS BUT SHOULD MAKE SOME GRADUAL INROADS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOW QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS ADVANCE AND THE COVERAGE
WILL STRONGLY DICTATE THE CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FLOW IS
WEAK...GENERALLY A GOOD RECIPE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG. IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED 5-7K FT CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST AND STAY
OVERCAST...THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLING TONIGHT AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ATTM I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE
SOME COOLING AND LOWERING CIGS/VSYBS INTO IFR CAT DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS MORE OPTOMISTIC THAN MUCH OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 201756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP TIMING TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY FROPA TIMING ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...WEAK SURFACE WAVE EXISTS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. MOSAIC RADAR NOT
SHOWING ANY RETURNS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA SO FAR. NORTHERN EXTENT
OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE WAVE COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN KANSAS MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AREA
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDINESS WILL
IMPACT HIGHS TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE ARE EXPERIENCING SOME GOOD LOW
LEVEL WAA. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGHS NEAR 60 FOR ALL AREAS. LOW
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MODERATING SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS.

UPPER WAVE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING PUSHES EAST INTO ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. BELIEVE WILL CUT ANY GULF MOISTURE RETURN TO
OUR AREA.  WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN CONFLICT FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MOST
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA. ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND...IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER ON THE SYSTEM AND PUMPING
MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE AS WE GET CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE...CONTINUED TO BRING CEILINGS
DOWN GRADUALLY THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR
PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE LOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE ARKLATEX SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER WITH NAM MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST
MO...SO WE COULD SEE LOWER CLOUDS PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TERRY
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 201747
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS FOG BECOMING MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LAST
REMAINING STRATUS ERODES AND CIRRUS BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. AN ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR NW MO SHORTLY.

FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE ALONG I-44 BEFORE BECOMING
MORE DIFFUSE OVER SRN MO. WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED AN ELEVATED SCT-BKN STRATUS DECK (4-5KFT
AGL) TO REACH SRN CWA AND PUT A HALT TO THE COOLING NECESSARY FOR
FOG FORMATION. A WEAK NORTHEAST FETCH OFF THE OZARKS INTO THE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO KEEP SUFFICIENT MIXING FOR LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT FOG OVER CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL MO.

OVERALL...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED. WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
SCOURING OUT THE REST OF THE CIRRUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE OVER THE OZARKS...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN PERIODS OF HIGH STRATUS OVER THE SRN CWA...SO HAVE
KEPT MAXES JUST A HAIR COOLER IN THIS REGION. TEMPERATURES BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...TRENDING TO NEAR 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS BROADER WARM ADVECTION REGIME ENSUES.

ALTHOUGH MORE OF A NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE...THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD REALLY RAMP UP DURING THE EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...AND MAY ALSO LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADVECTION FOG/DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
WHERE THE RAPID ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY OVERWHELM EARLY
EVENING COOLING.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MILD DAY FOR THE AREA.

BOOKBINDER


&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LINGERING FOG FINALLY
ERODING AND REMAINING AMOUNT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. NEXT CONCERN SURFACES TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD BRINGING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE AREA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS AFFECTS ON
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVECTION PROCESSES MAY OVERWHELM
THESE CONCERNS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN REGARDLESS. WILL PLAY THE
CONSERVATIVE ROAD FOR THE TIME BEING AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...KEEPING IN MIND THAT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
IN A FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ001-002-011-012-
     020.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ025-102.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 201743
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1143 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/1131 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THE ONLY SITE WITH MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE KUIN WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST A
FEW MORE HOURS THEN BECOME SCT BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...WATCHING
THE DECK OF 5-7K FT CLOUDS IN SW MO TRYING TO ADVANCE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEY HAVE BEEN FRAGMENTING IN THE PROCESS BUT SHOULD
MAKE SOME GRADUAL INROADS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOW
QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS ADVANCE AND THE COVERAGE WILL STRONGLY
DICTATE THE CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FLOW IS WEAK...GENERALLY A GOOD RECIPE
FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED 5-7K FT CLOUDS ARE
OVERCAST AND STAY OVERCAST...THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
COOLING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. ATTM I HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AND LOWERING CIGS/VSYBS INTO
IFR CAT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS MORE OPTOMISTIC THAN
MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
/539 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING IS PATCHY
DENSE FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THINK
FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14-15Z JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...BUT
WILL LIKELY HANG ON LONGER IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AS HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HELP TO INHIBIT DAYTIME
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING THAT THE FOG
WILL LIFT INTO AN IFR DECK WHAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING IN THOSE AREAS RATHER THAN DRY OUT AND DISSIPATE AS IT
SHOULD ELSEWHERE.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAY
BE INHIBITED BY A 4000-6000FT DECK WHICH GUIDANCE IS HINTING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 201615
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1015 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...

LIGHT PRECIP OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS SPREADING A LITTLE SLOWER
TO THE NORTHEAST THAN GOING POPS INDICATE...SO HAVE DECREASED POPS
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND TRENDED POPS UP A BIT OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS COUNTIES WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF THE OZARK PLATEAU ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.

TEMPERATURES  ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK BASED ON RECENT HOURLY
TRENDS.

TERRY

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP TIMING TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY FROPA TIMING ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...WEAK SURFACE WAVE EXISTS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. MOSAIC RADAR NOT
SHOWING ANY RETURNS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA SO FAR. NORTHERN EXTENT
OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE WAVE COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN KANSAS MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AREA
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDINESS WILL
IMPACT HIGHS TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE ARE EXPERIENCING SOME GOOD LOW
LEVEL WAA. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGHS NEAR 60 FOR ALL AREAS. LOW
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MODERATING SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS.

UPPER WAVE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING PUSHES EAST INTO ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. BELIEVE WILL CUT ANY GULF MOISTURE RETURN TO
OUR AREA.  WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN CONFLICT FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MOST
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA. ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND...IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER ON THE SYSTEM AND PUMPING
MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE AS WE GET CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE UPDATED THE JOPLIN TAF TO DELAY ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS A
COUPLE HOURS AND BRING VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE
GRADUAL BUILD DOWN OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.

TERRY
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 201154
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
554 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/317 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST INCLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP LATE
LAST EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS BECAUSE OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACTING ON A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DENSE FOG
HAS NOT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SCT-BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OUT OF
NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR UP UNTIL FORECAST ISSUANCE
BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH 15Z.

NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS MO/IL TONIGHT.  TIME CROSS SECTIONS ON THE MODELS SHOW A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IT REMAINS DRY IN THE MID
LEVELS WHERE A NARROW WINDOW OF MODEST ASCENT EXISTS. THIS
WARRANTS KEEPING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROM CNTRL MO INTO E CNTRL/NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS RAIN FROM CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
LWR MS VALLEY STAYS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPE AS WE GO INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
NEXT WEEK. ALREADY HAVE CHANCE OF RAIN GOING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE NRN CONUS. LATEST
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF DEPICT THIS CLOSED LOW MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT MIDWEEK WHEREAS THE GFS BEGINS TO
OPEN IT UP AND MOVE IT NEWD. TOO MANY QUESTIONS TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TODAY FOR TEMPS BECAUSE OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT SELY WINDS AND A COOL START IN THE 30S THIS
MORNING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS...SREF MEAN AND LOCAL
WRF THEREAFTER.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/539 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING IS PATCHY
DENSE FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THINK
FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14-15Z JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...BUT
WILL LIKELY HANG ON LONGER IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AS HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HELP TO INHIBIT DAYTIME
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING THAT THE FOG
WILL LIFT INTO AN IFR DECK WHAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING IN THOSE AREAS RATHER THAN DRY OUT AND DISSIPATE AS IT
SHOULD ELSEWHERE.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE VFR WITH LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAY
BE INHIBITED BY A 4000-6000FT DECK WHICH GUIDANCE IS HINTING WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 201122
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS FOG BECOMING MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LAST
REMAINING STRATUS ERODES AND CIRRUS BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. AN ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR NW MO SHORTLY.

FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE ALONG I-44 BEFORE BECOMING
MORE DIFFUSE OVER SRN MO. WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED AN ELEVATED SCT-BKN STRATUS DECK (4-5KFT
AGL) TO REACH SRN CWA AND PUT A HALT TO THE COOLING NECESSARY FOR
FOG FORMATION. A WEAK NORTHEAST FETCH OFF THE OZARKS INTO THE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO KEEP SUFFICIENT MIXING FOR LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT FOG OVER CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL MO.

OVERALL...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED. WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
SCOURING OUT THE REST OF THE CIRRUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE OVER THE OZARKS...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN PERIODS OF HIGH STRATUS OVER THE SRN CWA...SO HAVE
KEPT MAXES JUST A HAIR COOLER IN THIS REGION. TEMPERATURES BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...TRENDING TO NEAR 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS BROADER WARM ADVECTION REGIME ENSUES.

ALTHOUGH MORE OF A NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE...THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD REALLY RAMP UP DURING THE EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...AND MAY ALSO LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADVECTION FOG/DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
WHERE THE RAPID ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY OVERWHELM EARLY
EVENING COOLING.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MILD DAY FOR THE AREA.

BOOKBINDER


&&

.AVIATION...

DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AFFECTING MAINLY STJ AND MCI. SOUTH OF MCI IT APPEARS A MID DECK OF
STRATUS IS PREVENTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANTICIPATE FOG BURNING
OFF BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE WITH MVFR VSBYS AS LOW LEVEL AND
SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE AREA
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

11

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020.

KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-102.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 201057
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
456 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP TIMING TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY FROPA TIMING ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...WEAK SURFACE WAVE EXISTS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. MOSAIC RADAR NOT
SHOWING ANY RETURNS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA SO FAR. NORTHERN EXTENT
OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE WAVE COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN KANSAS MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AREA
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDINESS WILL
IMPACT HIGHS TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE ARE EXPERIENCING SOME GOOD LOW
LEVEL WAA. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGHS NEAR 60 FOR ALL AREAS. LOW
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MODERATING SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS.

UPPER WAVE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING PUSHES EAST INTO ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. BELIEVE WILL CUT ANY GULF MOISTURE RETURN TO
OUR AREA.  WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN CONFLICT FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MOST
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA. ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND...IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER ON THE SYSTEM AND PUMPING
MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE AS WE GET CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS LOWER ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN VFR INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE JLN TAF BUT HAVE LEFT OUT AT
SGF/BBG FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 200935
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS FOG BECOMING MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LAST
REMAINING STRATUS ERODES AND CIRRUS BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. AN ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR NW MO SHORTLY.

FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE ALONG I-44 BEFORE BECOMING
MORE DIFFUSE OVER SRN MO. WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE
THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED AN ELEVATED SCT-BKN STRATUS DECK (4-5KFT
AGL) TO REACH SRN CWA AND PUT A HALT TO THE COOLING NECESSARY FOR
FOG FORMATION. A WEAK NORTHEAST FETCH OFF THE OZARKS INTO THE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO KEEP SUFFICIENT MIXING FOR LITTLE MORE
THAN LIGHT FOG OVER CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL MO.

OVERALL...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED. WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
SCOURING OUT THE REST OF THE CIRRUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE OVER THE OZARKS...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN PERIODS OF HIGH STRATUS OVER THE SRN CWA...SO HAVE
KEPT MAXES JUST A HAIR COOLER IN THIS REGION. TEMPERATURES BE A GOOD
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...TRENDING TO NEAR 10 DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS BROADER WARM ADVECTION REGIME ENSUES.

ALTHOUGH MORE OF A NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE...THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD REALLY RAMP UP DURING THE EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...AND MAY ALSO LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADVECTION FOG/DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
WHERE THE RAPID ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY OVERWHELM EARLY
EVENING COOLING.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT MILD DAY FOR THE AREA.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS ISSUANCE DEALS WITH FOG POTENTIAL. FOR MCI AND
MKC...VFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER WITH COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED. FOR STJ THE CIGS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST SO THE TYPICAL
COOL DRAINAGE AS WELL AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
DENSE FOG FORMATION. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15-16Z. WITH SURFACE
RIDGING IN THE AREA LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

11

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 200917
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
317 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/317 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST INCLUDE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG BEGAN TO DEVELOP LATE
LAST EVENING...PARTICUALARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS BECAUSE OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACTING ON A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE. DENSE FOG
HAS NOT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS SCT-BKN CIRRUS IS MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD OUT OF
NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR UP UNTIL FORECAST ISSUANCE
BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH 15Z.

NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS MO/IL TONIGHT.  TIME CROSS SECTIONS ON THE MODELS SHOW A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT IT REMAINS DRY IN THE MID
LEVELS WHERE A NARROW WINDOW OF MODEST ASCENT EXISTS. THIS
WARRANTS KEEPING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
FROM CNTRL MO INTO E CNTRL/NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL. EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS RAIN FROM CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
LWR MS VALLEY STAYS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TYPE AS WE GO INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD
NEXT WEEK. ALREADY HAVE CHANCE OF RAIN GOING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE NRN CONUS. LATEST
RUNS OF THE CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF DEPICT THIS CLOSED LOW MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST AT MIDWEEK WHEREAS THE GFS BEGINS TO
OPEN IT UP AND MOVE IT NEWD. TOO MANY QUESTIONS TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS TODAY FOR TEMPS BECAUSE OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT SELY WINDS AND A COOL START IN THE 30S THIS
MORNING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS...SREF MEAN AND LOCAL
WRF THEREAFTER.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1137 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT. SO WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED. JUST A QUESTION OF
HOW LOW IT WILL GO. AFTER LOOKING AT CROSSOVER TEMPS AND MINS FOR
THIS MORNING...DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE WILL LIKELY FORM
NEAR KSUS AND KUIN...WHILE KSTL COULD SEE VSBYS DOWN TO A MILE AT
TIMES. RAISED VSBYS AT KCOU AS THEY WILL SEE THICKER CIRRUS AS WELL
AS SOME SC MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...KEEPING DENSE FOG AT BAY
THERE...JUST WENT AS LOW AS 2SM THERE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL PICKUP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST JUST A BIT. BY MID MORNING WILL SEE THE SC MOVE INTO
KSTL/KSUS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200754
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
154 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP TIMING TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY FROPA TIMING ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...WEAK SURFACE WAVE EXISTS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW...NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. MOSAIC RADAR NOT
SHOWING ANY RETURNS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA SO FAR. NORTHERN EXTENT
OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE WAVE COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN KANSAS MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AREA
WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDINESS WILL
IMPACT HIGHS TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE ARE EXPERIENCING SOME GOOD LOW
LEVEL WAA. SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGHS NEAR 60 FOR ALL AREAS. LOW
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...MODERATING SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS.

UPPER WAVE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING PUSHES EAST INTO ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE PRECIP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. BELIEVE WILL CUT ANY GULF MOISTURE RETURN TO
OUR AREA.  WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN CONFLICT FOR THE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MOST
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA. ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND...IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER ON THE SYSTEM AND PUMPING
MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE AS WE GET CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK ON.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 20/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
SOMEWHAT...MVFR/VFR CAT CEILINGS...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

DSA



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 200554
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW CONTINUING TO FEED A BAND OF
CLOUDS INTO THE NERN CWA. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL EAST...THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH H8...AND
WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...DENSE FOG IS A GOOD BET. HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT A STRATUS DECK MAY FORM IN THE EXTREME SRN GRIDS LATE
TNGT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. LATEST STLT IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A BAND OF GULF MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH ERN
OK. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER MAY BE TOO SLOW IN MVG NE FOR THE NERN
GRIDS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND LET
THE EVENING SHIFT PIN DOWN THE ENTIRE AFFECTED AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE ERN ROCKIES WITH A MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION IN SRN NM. THE BEST
FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA...
HOWEVER...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS TO AFFECT
THE SRN CWA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT. HAVE MENTIONED SMALL POPS FOR THE
SRN GRIDS FRI NGT. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP MAY IN
THE FORM OF DRIZZLE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS REFINE THE FCST AS THE GFS
IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE DEPTH AND QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT
TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THE SRN GRIDS DUE TO CLOUD CVR.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON SUNDAY. FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN WEAK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED AS A STG NEARLY ZONAL JET
STRETCHED FM ERN ASIA INTO THE WESTERN US CO. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVELENGTH
TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITH THE MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN DETERMINING THE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THE FUTURE LONG WAVE
POSITIONS. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH HELP AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE
RATHER NOISY WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES DEPICTING NEARLY ZONAL FOR THE
WRN AND CNTRL US FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE NRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED RECENTLY FOR A MORE NRN
SOLUTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND GEM. DUE TO SUCH A MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL RACE TO OUR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPS
WILL ONLY COOL A LITTLE FOR MID WEEK DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR REMAINS CONFINED TO NRN CANADA.

DB


&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS ISSUANCE DEALS WITH FOG POTENTIAL. FOR MCI AND
MKC...VFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AND SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER WITH COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED. FOR STJ THE CIGS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST SO THE TYPICAL
COOL DRAINAGE AS WELL AS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR
DENSE FOG FORMATION. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 15-16Z. WITH SURFACE
RIDGING IN THE AREA LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

11

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 200537
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1137 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/405 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FINALLY CLEARING OUT FROM THE S-SW AS MID
LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED NEWD TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MAIN SFC LOW
CENTERED OVER NERN WI ATTM WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA.
THE NRN AND NERN PTN OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT TGT. WILL
FORECAST MIN TEMPS BELOW PERSISTENCE TGT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
DUE TO THE CLEAR SKY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG WITH LGT SFC
WND. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TGT DUE TO THE SATURATED
GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL PLUS SOME AREAS RECEIVED LITTLE
DAYTIME MIXING AND DRYING TDA. EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TGT AND EARLY FRI MRNG. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK NWD INTO
THE CWA ON FRI AS THE MID LVL TROF OVER THE SWRN US MOVES EWD THRU
TX. A WEAKER SHRTWV WILL ALSO BE MOVING EWD THRU NRN MO AND IA ON
FRI. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL S OF THE CWA AHEAD
OF THE SRN SHRTWV BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY RAIN OVER MAINLY
THE MO PORTION OF THE CWA FROM FRI AFTN THRU SAT. THE MODELS SHIFT
THIS SRN SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEWD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY
REGION FOR SAT NGT. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION OVER THE NAM MODEL
WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN E-SE OF THE CWA FOR SAT NGT AND SUN.
THE MODELS PARTICULARLY THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SHRTWVS AND ASSOCIATED CDFNTS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTING THE CWA MON
THRU WED. IT APREARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL N OF
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION...
/1137 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT. SO WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED. JUST A QUESTION OF
HOW LOW IT WILL GO. AFTER LOOKING AT CROSSOVER TEMPS AND MINS FOR
THIS MORNING...DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE WILL LIKELY FORM
NEAR KSUS AND KUIN...WHILE KSTL COULD SEE VSBYS DOWN TO A MILE AT
TIMES. RAISED VSBYS AT KCOU AS THEY WILL SEE THICKER CIRRUS AS WELL
AS SOME SC MOVE IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...KEEPING DENSE FOG AT BAY
THERE...JUST WENT AS LOW AS 2SM THERE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL PICKUP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST JUST A BIT. BY MID MORNING WILL SEE THE SC MOVE INTO
KSTL/KSUS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200516
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF AMPLIFICATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF SHOTS AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
STRAY ALL THAT FAR FROM NORMAL.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHILE ENERGY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN FEATURE. SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THESE WAVES
SPLITTING AROUND THE OZARKS. WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT.
MOISTURE IS ALSO SCARCE AT THIS POINT...BUT DO EXPECT A QUICK
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE OZARKS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH DID UNDERCUT ON FRIDAY
OVER MOST AREAS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER

MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED QUITE A BIT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER AND MUCH FURTHER
NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS MAKES MUCH MORE SENSE GIVEN THE
FLATTER LONG WAVE CHARTS. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER DIGGING OF ENERGY
EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EVEN WITH THIS
PATTERN CHANGE...NOT ALL THAT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS FOR THE
MOST PART.

SCHAUMANN


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 20/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
SOMEWHAT (MVFR/VFR CAT CEILINGS) WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 200002
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF AMPLIFICATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF SHOTS AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
STRAY ALL THAT FAR FROM NORMAL.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHILE ENERGY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES REMAINS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN FEATURE. SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THESE WAVES
SPLITTING AROUND THE OZARKS. WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT.
MOISTURE IS ALSO SCARCE AT THIS POINT...BUT DO EXPECT A QUICK
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE OZARKS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH DID UNDERCUT ON FRIDAY
OVER MOST AREAS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER

MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED QUITE A BIT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER AND MUCH FURTHER
NORTH WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS MAKES MUCH MORE SENSE GIVEN THE
FLATTER LONG WAVE CHARTS. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NEXT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER DIGGING OF ENERGY
EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EVEN WITH THIS
PATTERN CHANGE...NOT ALL THAT EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS FOR THE
MOST PART.

SCHAUMANN


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO
OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 12Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST OK INTO FAR SW MO. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 192351
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
551 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW CONTINUING TO FEED A BAND OF
CLOUDS INTO THE NERN CWA. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL EAST...THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH H8...AND
WITH CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...DENSE FOG IS A GOOD BET. HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT A STRATUS DECK MAY FORM IN THE EXTREME SRN GRIDS LATE
TNGT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. LATEST STLT IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE A BAND OF GULF MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH ERN
OK. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER MAY BE TOO SLOW IN MVG NE FOR THE NERN
GRIDS. AS A RESULT...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND LET
THE EVENING SHIFT PIN DOWN THE ENTIRE AFFECTED AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE ERN ROCKIES WITH A MORE DEFINED CIRCULATION IN SRN NM. THE BEST
FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA...
HOWEVER...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS TO AFFECT
THE SRN CWA FRI AFTN AND FRI NGT. HAVE MENTIONED SMALL POPS FOR THE
SRN GRIDS FRI NGT. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP MAY IN
THE FORM OF DRIZZLE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS REFINE THE FCST AS THE GFS
IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE DEPTH AND QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT
TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THE SRN GRIDS DUE TO CLOUD CVR.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON SUNDAY. FORCING IS ONCE AGAIN WEAK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED AS A STG NEARLY ZONAL JET
STRETCHED FM ERN ASIA INTO THE WESTERN US CO. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVELENGTH
TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITH THE MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
IN DETERMINING THE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THE FUTURE LONG WAVE
POSITIONS. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH HELP AS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE
RATHER NOISY WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES DEPICTING NEARLY ZONAL FOR THE
WRN AND CNTRL US FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE NRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED RECENTLY FOR A MORE NRN
SOLUTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND GEM. DUE TO SUCH A MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL RACE TO OUR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPS
WILL ONLY COOL A LITTLE FOR MID WEEK DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS CANADIAN AND ARCTIC AIR REMAINS CONFINED TO NRN CANADA.

DB


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...RIDGE AXIS IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOST CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKIES STILL EXPECTED...FOG IN THE LIFR RANGE IS LOOKING TO BE A GOOD
BET. ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR MIGHT BE THE MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE
GULF...CURRENTLY SEEN WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS THAT WOULD RESULT FROM THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS...THUS HAVE LEFT
LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOR ALL THREE LOCATIONS FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY. STILL EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT EAST WINDS FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 192339
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
539 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/405 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FINALLY CLEARING OUT FROM THE S-SW AS MID
LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED NEWD TO LAKE MICHIGAN WITH MAIN SFC LOW
CENTERED OVER NERN WI ATTM WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA.
THE NRN AND NERN PTN OF THE CWA SHOULD CLEAR OUT TGT. WILL
FORECAST MIN TEMPS BELOW PERSISTENCE TGT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
DUE TO THE CLEAR SKY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ALONG WITH LGT SFC
WND. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TGT DUE TO THE SATURATED
GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL PLUS SOME AREAS RECEIVED LITTLE
DAYTIME MIXING AND DRYING TDA. EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
TGT AND EARLY FRI MRNG. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK NWD INTO
THE CWA ON FRI AS THE MID LVL TROF OVER THE SWRN US MOVES EWD THRU
TX. A WEAKER SHRTWV WILL ALSO BE MOVING EWD THRU NRN MO AND IA ON
FRI. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL S OF THE CWA AHEAD
OF THE SRN SHRTWV BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY RAIN OVER MAINLY
THE MO PORTION OF THE CWA FROM FRI AFTN THRU SAT. THE MODELS SHIFT
THIS SRN SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEWD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY
REGION FOR SAT NGT. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION OVER THE NAM MODEL
WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN E-SE OF THE CWA FOR SAT NGT AND SUN.
THE MODELS PARTICULARLY THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
SHRTWVS AND ASSOCIATED CDFNTS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTING THE CWA MON
THRU WED. IT APREARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL N OF
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

GKS
&&

.AVIATION...
/539 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT/CLEARING AT KCOU...KSUS
AND KSTL...THOUGH LOW CLOUD DECK IS LINGERING OVER KUIN. THE LOW
CLOUD DECK WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...SO AS SKIES CLEAR OFF...LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z/04Z
TIMEFRAME. DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE WILL LIKELY
FORM OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER 08Z/10Z.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL PICKUP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. BY MID MORNING WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX