000
FXUS63 KFGF 212052
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
252 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN E
SASK...WITH A TROF EXTENDING ALONG THROUGH W ND. WHEN LOOKING AT
THE MODELS...THEY REMAIN SIMILAR INITIALLY...THEN DIVERGE WITH THE
ECMWF THE SLOWEST AND THE GFS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. THUS...ENDED
UP USING A MODEL BLEND FOR POP FORECAST AND PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH
THE ADJMAV FOR TEMPS.

THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS
EVENING AS THE TROF PASSES AND WINDS TURN TO THE SW-W BY SUN
MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS TROF. THIS SURFACE TROF IS EXPECTED TO BE E OF THE AREA BY SUN
AFTERNOON AS A 500MB TROF APPROACHES...KEEPING THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE E OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN.

ON SUN NIGHT...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AS A 500MB LOW
STARTS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE OVERALL THEME FOR
FORECASTING FOR THIS STORM IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES STAY
WARMER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO NOW SHOULD SEE MORE
RAIN FOR THE AREAS THAT DO GET PCPN THAN SNOW. ALSO...THE AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY PCPN AREA SE ND...WC AND
NW MN. THUS...STARTED CUTTING BACK AND REMOVING POPS FOR PARTS OF
NE ND FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE NIGHT TO SAT)
ALTHOUGH MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN RATHER POOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...IT APPEARS THE 12 UTC GFS/DGEX/ECMWF HAVE
FINALLY LOCKED ONTO THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE
UPPER MIDWEST MID-WEEK. AT 00 UTC WED...ALL THREE MODELS SHOW
UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED ACROSS E IOWA...WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS
IT MOVES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY
DROPS S ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT AND WED. GIVEN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MOISTURE WILL BE LESS WITH THIS SECOND WAVE...SO KEPT POPS
AT 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL DURING
THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SNOW AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-6 TO -8 C. DAYTIME HIGHS WED AND THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S... CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT NOTICEABLY
COOLER COMPARED TO OUR RECENT WARM STREAK.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY...BUT COOL
AS AN UPPER RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT CONCERNS STRONG S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS SUN SETS...SURFACE SHOULD
DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT FROM MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (40 TO 50 KTS AT
2000 TO 3000 FT)...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME CALM.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SW OVERNIGHT
WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY. EXPECT PERIODS OF CIRRUS AT ALL
AIR FIELDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CEILINGS MAY APPROACH KBJI BY
MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN CURRENT TAF...BUT WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
NG/ROGERS

000
FXUS63 KBIS 212040
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
240 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO APPEAR BY SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO REDUCED FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG IN MANITOBA. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH DICKINSON
AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE
CAUSED STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM MINOT
TO BISMARCK BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND NEAR JAMESTOWN BY 06 UTC...AND
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AND END THE GUSTY
WINDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. RIDGING IS SHORT-LIVED
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DISAGREE AT THIS POINT WITH THE
PATH OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF DROPS THIS TROUGH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA AND PAINTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS
MOVES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND SHOWS SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
MODELS SPLIT ON THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...GRIDDED FORECASTS HAVE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION IS IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO MODEL/ENSEMBLE OVERLAP THERE.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...JUSTIFYING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THAT
SAID...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE MODELS DEPICTING A LOW OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA...WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST. THE GFS KEEPS
THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST UNTIL FRIDAY...THEN BRINGS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS FASTER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...BUT THEN DEVELOPS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR
COLORADO AND THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THURSDAY - THANKSGIVING DAY - WILL BRING
MILD WEATHER TO NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND
HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S EAST TO UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...MOST
OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD SEE HIGHS 35 TO 45 FOR MOST DAYS AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
MANITOBA TONIGHT. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA BY
AROUND 06Z. EXPECT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH KBIS AND KMOT BY AROUND
00Z AND KJMS AFT 03Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS AT KJMS...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND IT THROUGH
02Z...THEN WIND SPEEDS DECREASING. EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED MID CLOUDS 10000-15000 FT. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
3000-5000 FT MOVING INTO THE STATE AFT 10Z. LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DC/SCHECK
AVIATION...DC/JV
LONG TERM...JV

000
FXUS63 KFGF 211640 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1039 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPS AND WINDS. WHEN LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN
SASK...WITH A TROF EXTENDING ALONG THE MT/ND LINE. WHEN LOOKING AT
THE MODELS...THEY REMAIN SIMILAR IN KEEPING E ND...NW AND WC MN IN S
FLOW TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING
WINDY CONDITIONS. THUS...PRETTY MUCH KEPT FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR
THIS UPDATE.

TEMPS NOT WARMING AS QUICKLY AS EARLIER EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DVL AREA...SO DID NEED TO MAKE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR
TODAY`S MAX IN SOME AREAS. WITH WINDS STILL ANTICIPATED TO MIX TO
ABOUT 925 MB...WHICH COULD RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER...
SINCE THIS IS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WITH TEMPS NOT
WARMING AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SKY AND VSBY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH SE-S WINDS INCREASING BY
21Z WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/

SHORT TERM (SAT-MON)...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL TODAY
AND THEN PCPN CHANCES ON MON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE. 00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS. NAM IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE
BOUNDARY TODAY...AND WILL LEAN AWAY FROM ITS SOLUTION. FOR LATER
IN THE PERIOD...MODELS (GEM...ECMWF...GFS...NAM) ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO KEEP THINGS UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOLLOW A BLEND.

TODAY...GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO AROUND 850MB
POSSIBLE...WHILE NAM INDICATES AROUND 925MB. THE DEEPER MIXING
DEPTH OF THE GFS IS LIKELY DUE TO COOLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS 850MB THERMAL RIDGE PROPAGATES TO THE E. THE SLOWER
NAM KEEPS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE FA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE INVERSION INTACT ABOVE 925MB. WITHOUT
COOLING AT 850MB...THINK THAT WITH A S/SE SFC WIND AND LATE NOV
SUN ANGLE THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO HEAT ENOUGH AT THE SFC TO MIX
MUCH ABOVE 925MB. IF THE PREFERRED QUICKER SOLUTION IS CORRECT AND
WE DO MIX TO 850MB...WINDS ALOFT BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE WEAKENING. SO...THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL
NOT ALLOW MIXING TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND THE QUICKER
SOLUTION WILL ALLOW DEEPER MIXING BUT TO WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
WINDY TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONLY
REASON TO WORRY AND HAVE SUCH A LONG DISCUSSION IS BECAUSE THE
850MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 55 KTS AT 18Z (JUST THAT THE NAM HANGS
ON TO THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON). GIVEN
EITHER SOLUTION...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S A GOOD BET.

TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL LACK MOISTURE UNTIL THE FORCING IS E OF
THE FA. REMOVED THE 20 POPS ACROSS THE E FA FOR SUN. MIN TEMPS SUN
MORNING SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE E WHERE BEST SFC MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE. AIR MASS COOLS A BIT
COMPARED WITH SAT...BUT WESTERLY SFC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE MID-40S. LIGHTER WINDS SUN NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL TO NEAR DEW POINTS VALUES (LOW-MID 20S). CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH COULD KEEP MIN TEMP VALUES IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
FAR S FA.

MON-MON NIGHT...FORMING 500MB LOW SOUTH OF THE FA WITH INVERTED
SFC TROUGH INTO THE FA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING PCPN CHANCES. AT
THIS TIME THINKING MOSTLY A RAIN THREAT GIVEN MODEL 925MB TEMPS.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS AND
PCPN LINGERS ACROSS THE E FA AND THEN TEMPERATURES. MODELS COMING
INTO SOME AGREEMENT...BUT STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO KEEP
CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE LOW END. CURRENT FORECAST REASONABLE AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
NG

000
FXUS63 KFGF 210932
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM (SAT-MON)...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL TODAY
AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE. 00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS. NAM IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE
BOUNDARY TODAY...AND WILL LEAN AWAY FROM ITS SOLUTION. FOR LATER
IN THE PERIOD...MODELS (GEM...ECMWF...GFS...NAM) ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO KEEP THINGS UNCERTAIN.
WILL FOLLOW A BLEND.

TODAY...GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO AROUND 850MB
POSSIBLE...WHILE NAM INDICATES AROUND 925MB. THE DEEPER MIXING
DEPTH OF THE GFS IS LIKELY DUE TO COOLING 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS 850MB THERMAL RIDGE PROPAGATES TO THE EAST. THE
SLOWER NAM KEEPS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE FA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE INVERSION INTACT ABOVE 925MB.
WITHOUT COOLING AT 850MB...THINK THAT WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SFC
WIND AND LATE NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE THAT IT WILL BE HARD TO HEAT
ENOUGH AT THE SFC TO MIX MUCH ABOVE 925MB. IF THE PREFERRED
QUICKER SOLUTION IS CORRECT AND WE DO MIX TO 850MB...WINDS ALOFT
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE WEAKENING.
SO...THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL NOT ALLOW MIXING TO THE VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT...AND THE QUICKER SOLUTION WILL ALLOW DEEPER MIXING
BUT TO WEAKER WINDS ALOFT. STILL WINDY TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ONLY REASON TO WORRY AND HAVE SUCH A
LONG DISCUSSION IS BECAUSE THE 850MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 55KNTS
AT 18Z (JUST THAT THE NAM HANGS ON TO THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON). GIVEN EITHER SOLUTION...MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOW 50S A GOOD BET.

TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT...APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL LACK MOISTURE UNTIL THE FORCING IS EAST
OF THE FA. REMOVED THE 20 POPS ACROSS THE E FA FOR SUN. MIN TEMPS
SUN MORNING SHOULD BE WARMEST ACROSS THE EAST WHERE BEST SFC
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BE. AIRMASS COOLS
A BIT COMPARED WITH SAT...BUT WESTERLY SFC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE INTO THE MID-40S. LIGHTER WINDS SUN NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR DEW POINTS VALUES (LOW-MID 20S). CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH COULD KEEP MIN TEMP VALUES IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA.

MON-MON NIGHT...FORMING 500MB LOW SOUTH OF THE FA WITH INVERTED
SFC TROUGH INTO THE FA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
AT THIS TIME THINKING MOSTLY A RAIN THREAT GIVEN MODEL 925MB
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG CLOUDS AND
PRECIP LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN FA AND THEN TEMPERATURES. MODELS
COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT...BUT STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO KEEP
CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE LOW END. CURRENT FORECAST REASONABLE AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS FROM
30-35KT POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
JUST SOME VERY HIGH CIRRUS AT TIMES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210853
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLIDING INTO IDAHO AND THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
DESPITE A 300MB 80KT JET AND DECENT OMEGA/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THE
OVERALL COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY RESULTING IN A SCT CIRRUS
SHIELD TO THIN BKN AT TIMES. THE LATEST MSAS SHOWS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO. 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS OF 3MB TO 4MB WERE OBSERVED OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INDICATIVE OF ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COME TO A HALT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. USING THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS PACKING FOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE/FROPA PLACEMENT AND TIMING...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THIS OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST BETWEEN 15Z-18Z WEST
(KISN/KDIK)...21Z-00Z CENTRAL (KMOT/KBIS)...AND AROUND 06Z FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES WHICH INCLUDES KJMS. FULLY EXPECT A CONTINUED DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST AND HENCE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
MIXING TO AROUND 900MB OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES FROM JAMESTOWN
SOUTH WILL YIELD WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. CONTEMPLATED A WIND
ADVISORY BUT AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE ZONES AND HWO. THE DAY SHIFT CAN
ISSUE A NOWCAST OR TWO IF NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WHICH
PLACES THE WARMEST AIR FROM AROUND BISMARCK SOUTH AND EAST. COOLER
FURTHER WEST.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. CONTINUED DRY
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT
NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GEMGLB ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THIS SOLUTION IS FURTHEST NORTH AND HAS
THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR OUR CWA WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW AND RAIN. THE NAM AND ECMWF DIG THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND
HENCE REMOVES THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DECIDED TO MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO
ONGOING POP/WEATHER GRIDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SINCE
CURRENT DATA IS NO MORE CONCLUSIVE THAN LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS.
WHICHEVER MODEL IS CORRECT...ALL CONCUR ON A COLDER REGIME...AS
THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 WHICH IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ESPECIALY AT END OF AND PAST
EXTENDED GRID PERIODS. AT BEGINNING OF EXTENDED GFS AND GEM SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE QPF EAST OF
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY DAYTIME.

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED
DIGGS OVER GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING BUILDING IN NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. ECMWF LAGGS MORE ENERGY INTO A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WHILE GFS IS DEEP TROUGH REBUILDING GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS FARTHER WEST ON GFS. 511 DM THICKNESS ON GFS AND 524
ON ECMWF POISED JUST NORTH OF BORDER SOUTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT END
OF EXTENDED PERIODS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED GFS FOR TIMING BUT
AMELIORATED THE COLD TEMPS OF GFS WITH COMBO OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
DAY 8.


&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL BRING THIN BROKEN
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE
STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER EASTERN TAF SITES WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KS/HW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 210153
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
753 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC WILL ALSO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD
ALL SERVE TO HOLD TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
LOWS A BIT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER THAN FURTHER EAST.

ON SATURDAY...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND NEARLY 45KT TO MIX FROM 925MB BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE WHAT LEVEL MIX DOWN FROM. IF WINDS CAN MIX FROM
925MB...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW. IT WILL
BE WINDY NONETHELESS...SO HAVE INCREASE WINDS IN THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
FROM 30-35KT POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED OTHERWISE WITH JUST SOME VERY HIGH CIRRUS AT TIMES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WINDS FOR SATURDAY. MODELS
INITIALIZED WELL BUT GFS DIVERGES FROM REST OF ENSEMBLE SO WILL GO
WITH A BLENDED NAM/ECMWF/GEMS SOLN ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF MN SHIFTING E
ALLOWING SRLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL KEEP TEMPS PROPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WILL LIMIT COOLING
OVERNIGHT.

PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE DVL BASIN LATE SAT
AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND 850MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE...LOOKING TO SEE
SFC GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH FROM THE VALLEY WEST...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT.

FOR MONDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN AS INVERTED TROF CROSSES THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH AS IT
WRAPS INTO THE LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH N AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL HELP PRODUCE -RA...MAINLY E OF THE
VALLEY.

LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE ON TIMING OF 500MB TROF/LOW AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS THE MEAN SOLUTION BETWEEN THE
DGEX AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED AT
THIS TIME BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. THUS...STILL KEPT
CHC POPS FOR PCPN IN FORECAST FOR TUE AND TRENDED INTO E PARTS OF
AREA FOR WED. AS FAR AS TEMPS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
DK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 202059
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
259 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND WINDS FOR SATURDAY. MODELS
INITIALIZED WELL BUT GFS DIVERGES FROM REST OF ENSEMBLE SO WILL GO
WITH A BLENDED NAM/ECMWF/GEMS SOLN ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF MN SHIFTING E
ALLOWING SRLY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL KEEP TEMPS PROPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING
THICKNESSES...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WILL LIMIT COOLING
OVERNIGHT.

PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE DVL BASIN LATE SAT
AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND 850MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THEREFORE...LOOKING TO SEE
SFC GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH FROM THE VALLEY WEST...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT.

FOR MONDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN AS INVERTED TROF CROSSES THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH AS IT
WRAPS INTO THE LOW...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH N AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL HELP PRODUCE -RA...MAINLY E OF THE
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE ON TIMING OF 500MB TROF/LOW AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS THE MEAN SOLUTION BETWEEN THE
DGEX AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED AT
THIS TIME BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. THUS...STILL KEPT
CHC POPS FOR PCPN IN FORECAST FOR TUE AND TRENDED INTO E PARTS OF
AREA FOR WED. AS FAR AS TEMPS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SKY AND VSBY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING S
AROUND 10 KTS BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN MORE S-SE AND GUSTY BY 15Z SAT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

HOPKINS/NG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 202046
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
246 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER SIBERIA AND
ALASKA SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AS WESTERLIES CRASH INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
SOME COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

CURRENTLY...THERE IS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE/HIGH PLAINS WITH A POTENT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY
SLIDING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA ON SATURDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING THIS FEATURE IS THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF
THE DAY. THE 12 UTC NAM SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD
FRONT FAR MORE THAN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND OBSERVED IN THE 12
UTC GFS. BASED ON HPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS DISCUSSION...GRIDDED
FORECASTS FAVORED CONTINUITY BLENDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS.
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION CHANGES
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATES SHOULD BE 10 TO 15F
COOLER ON SUNDAY BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER...STRONGER...COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
SUPPORT BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THUS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS THE SYSTEM
THROUGH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH
DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

MODELS DEVELOP A STORM CENTER THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN
THE SHORT TERM...AND BY TUESDAY MORNING THE LONG TERM MODELS HANDLE
THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE SYSTEM...WHICH PUTS THE LOW CENTER OVER IOWA/WISCONSIN TUESDAY
MORNING AND MOVES IT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
INTO HUDSON BAY AREA BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER...WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING
AND INTO IOWAS BY WEDNESDAY...AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY.
THE NATIONAL GUIDANCE FAVORS THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF. BASICALLY
KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THEN KEPT THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DRY. AFTER THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS
HUDSON BAY...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL KEEP A
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS 35 TO 45 AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS TAF SITES. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 15Z SATURDAY
AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD AND WEST WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY...WITH MID CLOUDS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...DC/SCHECK
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JV

000
FXUS63 KFGF 201654 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1042 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE AS TEMPERATURES RECOVERING NICELY
FROM LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS AND 20S. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
BURNED OFF AND PLENTY OF SOLAR AVAILABLE TO PUSH TEMPS TOWARD
HIGHS IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WHEN THEY WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN. CONDITIONS VFR OVER THE
FA AS EARLY MORNING FOG HAS BURNED OFF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

UPDATE...WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AS
PLANNED. THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG AROUND FOR A
LITTLE WHILE AFTER 8AM. HOWEVER...WITH SOLAR AND DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION ANY LINGERING DENSE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE. PLUS...DENSE FOG IS NOW MORE PATCHY THAN BEFORE.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CHALLENGE.
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS AND IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. THE NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SE FA ARE INDICATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES ARE AROUND 30F...AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
THESE VALUES UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8AM.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CRASH ONSHORE ACROSS THE W CONUS
TODAY...APPROACH AND SWING THROUGH THE FA SOMETIME SUNDAY. EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL WARM EACH DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD EACH BE
WARMER THAN THE PRECEDING DAY. HOW WARM IS THE MAIN QUESTION. WEAK
MIXING TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID-40S (SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS). SATURDAY IS THE BIGGER QUESTION AS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE (BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL). A
WINDY DAY EXPECTED...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER OF
ONLY 1000-1500FT. MODELS INDICATING SFC WINDS MORE OF A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR EXPERIENCING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. THINKING MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F MOST
PLACES. A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AS AIRMASS COOLS BEHIND WEAK FROPA.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AOA 10KNTS. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLER WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS.

WITH NAM BEING THE SLOWER MODEL...IT DOES ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE E FA ON SUN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA CONSIDERING THE TIMING ISSUES...BUT
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING AND NO THREAT FOR
CLOUDS/RAIN.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MAIN QUESTION MARK IS THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF
THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. 00Z GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE
THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION. 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FASTER SOLUTION WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES. WILL INCREASE POPS A
BIT FOR THE MONDAY/TUE TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
CONSIDERING THE GEM HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

HOPKINS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 201642
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1042 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE AS TEMPERATURES RECOVERING NICELY
FROM LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE TEENS AND 20S. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
BURNED OFF AND PLENTY OF SOLAR AVAILABLE TO PUSH TEMPS TOWARD
HIGHS IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WHEN THEY WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN. CONDITIONS VFR OVER THE
FA AS EARLY MORNING FOG HAS BURNED OFF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

UPDATE...WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AS
PLANNED. THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG AROUND FOR A
LITTLE WHILE AFTER 8AM. HOWEVER...WITH SOLAR AND DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION ANY LINGERING DENSE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE. PLUS...DENSE FOG IS NOW MORE PATCHY THAN BEFORE.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CHALLENGE.
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS AND IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. THE NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SE FA ARE INDICATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES ARE AROUND 30F...AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
THESE VALUES UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8AM.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CRASH ONSHORE ACROSS THE W CONUS
TODAY...APPROACH AND SWING THROUGH THE FA SOMETIME SUNDAY. EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL WARM EACH DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD EACH BE
WARMER THAN THE PRECEDING DAY. HOW WARM IS THE MAIN QUESTION. WEAK
MIXING TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID-40S (SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS). SATURDAY IS THE BIGGER QUESTION AS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE (BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL). A
WINDY DAY EXPECTED...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER OF
ONLY 1000-1500FT. MODELS INDICATING SFC WINDS MORE OF A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR EXPERIENCING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. THINKING MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F MOST
PLACES. A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AS AIRMASS COOLS BEHIND WEAK FROPA.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AOA 10KNTS. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLER WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS.

WITH NAM BEING THE SLOWER MODEL...IT DOES ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE E FA ON SUN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA CONSIDERING THE TIMING ISSUES...BUT
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING AND NO THREAT FOR
CLOUDS/RAIN.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MAIN QUESTION MARK IS THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF
THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. 00Z GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE
THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION. 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FASTER SOLUTION WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES. WILL INCREASE POPS A
BIT FOR THE MONDAY/TUE TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
CONSIDERING THE GEM HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

HOPKINS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 201345 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
745 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 8AM AS
PLANNED. THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF DENSE FOG AROUND FOR A
LITTLE WHILE AFTER 8AM. HOWEVER...WITH SOLAR AND DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION ANY LINGERING DENSE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE. PLUS...DENSE FOG IS NOW MORE PATCHY THAN BEFORE.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WHEN THEY WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN. MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CHALLENGE.
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS AND IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. THE NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SE FA ARE INDICATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES ARE AROUND 30F...AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
THESE VALUES UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8AM.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CRASH ONSHORE ACROSS THE W CONUS
TODAY...APPROACH AND SWING THROUGH THE FA SOMETIME SUNDAY. EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL WARM EACH DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD EACH BE
WARMER THAN THE PRECEDING DAY. HOW WARM IS THE MAIN QUESTION. WEAK
MIXING TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID-40S (SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS). SATURDAY IS THE BIGGER QUESTION AS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE (BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL). A
WINDY DAY EXPECTED...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER OF
ONLY 1000-1500FT. MODELS INDICATING SFC WINDS MORE OF A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR EXPERIENCING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. THINKING MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F MOST
PLACES. A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AS AIRMASS COOLS BEHIND WEAK FROPA.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AOA 10KNTS. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLER WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS.

WITH NAM BEING THE SLOWER MODEL...IT DOES ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE E FA ON SUN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA CONSIDERING THE TIMING ISSUES...BUT
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING AND NO THREAT FOR
CLOUDS/RAIN.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MAIN QUESTION MARK IS THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF
THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. 00Z GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE
THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION. 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FASTER SOLUTION WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES. WILL INCREASE POPS A
BIT FOR THE MONDAY/TUE TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
CONSIDERING THE GEM HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
TG

000
FXUS63 KFGF 200922
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
321 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CHALLENGE.
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS AND IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. THE NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SE FA ARE INDICATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES ARE AROUND 30F...AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
THESE VALUES UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8AM.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CRASH ONSHORE ACROSS THE W CONUS
TODAY...APPROACH AND SWING THROUGH THE FA SOMETIME SUNDAY. EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL WARM EACH DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD EACH BE
WARMER THAN THE PRECEDING DAY. HOW WARM IS THE MAIN QUESTION. WEAK
MIXING TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID-40S (SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS). SATURDAY IS THE BIGGER QUESTION AS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE (BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL). A
WINDY DAY EXPECTED...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER OF
ONLY 1000-1500FT. MODELS INDICATING SFC WINDS MORE OF A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR EXPERIENCING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. THINKING MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F MOST
PLACES. A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AS AIRMASS COOLS BEHIND WEAK FROPA.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AOA 10KNTS. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLER WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS.

WITH NAM BEING THE SLOWER MODEL...IT DOES ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE E FA ON SUN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA CONSIDERING THE TIMING ISSUES...BUT
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING AND NO THREAT FOR
CLOUDS/RAIN.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MAIN QUESTION MARK IS THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF
THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. 00Z GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE
THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION. 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FASTER SOLUTION WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES. WILL INCREASE POPS A
BIT FOR THE MONDAY/TUE TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA
CONSIDERING THE GEM HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WHEN THEY WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN. MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ024-028-
     030>032-040.

&&

$$
TG

000
FXUS63 KFGF 200912
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
312 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE CHALLENGE.
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS AND IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. THE NAM IS A SLOW OUTLIER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION.

OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SE FA ARE INDICATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES ARE AROUND 30F...AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
THESE VALUES UNTIL AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8AM.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CRASH ONSHORE ACROSS THE W CONUS
TODAY...APPROACH AND SWING THROUGH THE FA SOMETIME SUNDAY. EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL WARM EACH DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD EACH BE
WARMER THAN THE PRECEDING DAY. HOW WARM IS THE MAIN QUESTION. WEAK
MIXING TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID-40S (SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS). SATURDAY IS THE BIGGER QUESTION AS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT INCREASE (BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL). A
WINDY DAY EXPECTED...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING LAYER OF
ONLY 1000-1500FT. MODELS INDICATING SFC WINDS MORE OF A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR EXPERIENCING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. THINKING MAX TEMPS AROUND 50F MOST
PLACES. A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AS AIRMASS COOLS BEHIND WEAK FROPA.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN AOA 10KNTS. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE COOLER WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER AIRMASS.

WITH NAM BEING THE SLOWER MODEL...IT DOES ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE E FA ON SUN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA CONSIDERING THE TIMING ISSUES...BUT
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING AND NO THREAT FOR
CLOUDS/RAIN.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...MAIN QUESTION MARK IS THE SPEED/STRENGTH OF
THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. 00Z GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD GIVE
THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION. 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
A FASTER SOLUTION WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES. WILL INCREASE POPS
A BIT FOR THE MONDAY TIMEFRAME CONSIDERING THE GEM HAS COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
WHEN THEY WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN. MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ024-028-
     030>032-040.

&&

$$
TG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 200822
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
225 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOW BANDS OF
MOSTLY SCT CIRRUS...WITH SOME BKN CIRRUS AT TIMES PROGRESSING
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
STATE TODAY ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS LEADS TO SOME OMEGA/VERTICAL
MOTION BUT TIME HEIGHT/X-SECTIONS SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...THUS
SCT CIRRUS WILL BE ABOUT IT TODAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN
10 AND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
50S AS WE MIX OUT TO AROUND 925MB BY MID AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AHEAD.

WARM ADVECTION TODAY IS OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY INDUCING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SENDING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT OUR WAY SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION WITH
THE NAM ABOUT 3HRS SLOWER. EITHER WAY THE WARMEST 925MB-850MB AIR
WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES HERE WILL
BE SIMILAR SATURDAY AS TODAY. COOLER READINGS WILL TAKE PLACE AS
YOU PROCEED WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OVERALL COLUMN REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND THUS OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
SWING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND INTO IDAHO/MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
INITIATES A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH PROGRESSES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARISE ON THE PATH OF THIS LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
SIMILAR AS THEY SLIDE IT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
OVERALL SYSTEM AND ONLY SHOWS SOME WEAK PRECIPITATION REACHING OUR
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. TOOK A COMPROMISE
AND MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH WARM AIR TODAY GIVING WAY TO
COOLER AIR THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AT BEGINNING OF EXTENDED PERIODS WITH GFS
FASTER AND LESS DEVELOPED WITH WAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES WHICH RESULTS IN QPF FIELDS FARTHER EAST ON GFS. NEW ECMWF IS
TRENDING FASTER ON 00Z RUN WITH SYSTEM AND WILL FOLLOW GFS FOR
GRIDS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT.

TROUGHING MOVES EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING
OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVING EAST TO NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

GFS BRINGS COOLER AIR TO PLAINS BY EARLY IN NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH
SURFACE LOW REMAINS NORTH OF BORDER UNTIL WELL EAST OF FORECAST AREA
SO MOST PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN MISS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF FORECAST TAF LOCATIONS
AND NO IMMEDIATE CONCERNS IN AVIATION FORECAST WITH HIGH AND
ISOLATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KS/HW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 200232 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
832 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND SWITCH/TROUGH LINE FROM LATE AFTERNOON MADE
IT THROUGH THE KDVL REGION AND STALLED. THEREFORE SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS IN THE KDVL REGION AND STILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE
EAST. THERE IS A BATCH OF CIRRUS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
OF MINNESOTA NOW...WITH CLEARING BEHIND IT. FURTHER UPSTREAM THERE
IS MORE CIRRUS MOVING INTO WESTERN ND. BY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE
LOWEST ACROSS THE KDVL REGION AND WARMEST IN THE EAST. WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS ARE STILL HIGH SOME FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED. AS THE
CIRRUS DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT...THINK FOG WILL APPEAR
ALL ALONG THE VALLEY AND INTO MN. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME FOG
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF CIRRUS WILL DEPART THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH A BRIEF
BREAK BEFORE MORE CIRRUS MOVES IN LATER. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT
UNTIL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH
AGAIN. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT ADDING SOME FOG INTO SOME OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT - SUN]...

THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE DETERMINING THE STRENGTH
OF WINDS AND WARMING ON SATURDAY. DAILY TEMPERATURES AND PCPN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WERE MINOR CHALLENGES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR WINDS
TO CAPTURE MORE DETAIL...WHILE THE SREF FOR TEMPERATURES.

AT 20Z...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE
BEING REPLACED BY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED CIRRUS COVERED EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE VALLEY...BUT
A BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK COVERED WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EXITING
THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ONTO PARTS OF THE LAKE AND
WOODS REGION OF MINNESOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING
TONIGHT. THE BEST COOLING TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE LOW 20S. NOT
CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CURRENT LOWS FORECASTED FOR THE VALLEY...WHICH
COULD END UP A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WITH
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION IN THE BETTER
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY GUSTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SASKATCHEWAN. FOR
DAYS...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATE 25 TO 35 KNOTS AT 925
MB AT 18Z SATURDAY....WITH GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING TO ABOUT
900 MB. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THAT TRACK...AND THE NAM IS
EVEN STRONGER. THE SUNNY SKIES SHOULD AID ANY MIXING.
THEREFORE...WENT HIGHER THAN STRAIGHT GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MIXING
POTENTIAL. MY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE VALLEY. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH
25 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY. THE
GFS IS A BIT COOLER THAN THE NAM WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE MIXING AND SUNSHINE COULD LIKELY PRODUCE HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 DEGREES. THAT IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IF NAM HAS ITS WAY...THOSE TEMPERATURES COULD BE HIGHER.
THE RECORD HIGH AT GRAND FORKS IS 57.

INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE LAKE AND WOODS REGION OF
MINNESOTA. CUT OUT THE PCPN CHANCES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT COVERED THE VALLEY ON SUNDAY SINCE MODELS ARE AGREEING WELL
ON KEEPING IT FARTHER EAST.

LONG TERM [SUN NIGHT - THU]...

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR LONG TERM FOCUSES ON PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED
WITH A WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE MONDAY
TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO WARRANT ADDING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. GFS PUSHES THE SFC LOW FURTHER MUCH
QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN...AS THE ECMWF HAS AN INVERTED TROUGH
ALONG THE RRV AT 00Z TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED 20 POPS TO THE AREA FOR MON
INTO MON NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW ATTM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON