000
FXUS61 KBOX 212027
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THREATENS THE REGION
WITH MORE RAIN VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
THE THICKEST CLOUDS NOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. FARTHER
WEST...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BANKED UP AGAINST THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT
LEAST SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS AND ALSO ITS INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH
SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE SOUTHERN AND WEAKEST
SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN EFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.  THE GEM/NAM CERTAINLY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING MAINLY
RAIN/DRIZZLE.  THE ECMWF IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE VERY WET GEM/NAM
BUT IT DOES LEAN IN MORE OF THEIR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAN IN THE ECMWF/S DIRECTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS
TRACK RECORD IN THIS TIMEFRAME.  WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN FACT...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS INTO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE REGION.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COOL
AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE
LOWER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.  CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WHAT
EVER FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER.  HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SPINNING OFF
THE COAST.   PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY.  HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKSGIVING DAY MAY TURN OUT DRY.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AGAIN...TIMING AND FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO WARM SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/PASSING RAIN SHOWER SO WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE.  ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG
DEAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...MAINLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED UPON THE BUILDING
SEAS...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD
GRADIENT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER THIS
TIME.  SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF MARGINAL GALE
AT SOME POINT.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211915
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
215 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE WIND HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE QUESTION
TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
HENCE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW STRAY
LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE 1024 MILLIBAR HIGH
CENTERED OVER OHIO AT 19Z BUILDS EASTWARD. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
TEMPERATURES USED TO INITIALIZE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS...A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...NEARLY A FULL 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WINDS SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ADDING A BIT OF A CHILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDINESS TO A MINIMUM SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WOULD EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S
IN ALL AREAS...FAVORED A COOLER GFS MOS SOLUTION IN JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES...SO THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE
DRY TO START. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL GO INTO
MOISTENING THE COLUMN. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY DURING
MONDAY. AFTER A COLD START...WOULD THINK A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS
SHOULD BE OK FOR HIGHS.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE COLUMN WARMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

FURTHER NORTH...THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. EVEN HERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE
COLUMN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR MUCH BESIDE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN BUMPED UP A BIT DUE TO CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD...AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE TRACK OF THE SLOW SUGGEST MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD STAY DRY. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
RAIN NEAR THE COAST.

AFTER THIS...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE WITH RESPECT TO
THE MASS FIELDS...THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT. WITH BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES....
WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
THE 1200 UTC GFS SWINGS A SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM...
BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THIS.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT...THANKSGIVING ITSELF COULD BE DRY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON THE TIMING SINCE IT IS TIED TO A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM.

AFTER THIS...EXPECT TO SEE A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW...THE COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...BUT COOLING WITH LOWER HEIGHT COULD INTRODUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z SUNDAY/...VFR EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG BTWN 08 AND 14Z WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT /KLEB/ BTWN 10 AND 13Z.

LONG TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL START TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT...AND KPSM...KPWM
AND PERHAPS KAUG MAY SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WILL LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD APPEAR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH REORIENTS ITSELF WEST TO EAST...THE
GRADIENT FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST THEN EAST. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
CONSTANT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS WINDS REMAINS BELOW 20
KNOTS.

AS THE GRADIENT PRODUCES A MORE FAVORABLE EAST TO NORTHEAST
FETCH...SEAS WILL START COMING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
WOULD EXPECT SEAS TO REACH NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...WHERE THE FETCH SHOULD BE MOST EFFECTIVE.

THE GRADIENT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH EXITING OVER THE MARITIMES AND
THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON THE FETCH...WOULD EXPECT TO SEAS
REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER ALL OF THE OCEAN WATERS...AND
PERHAPS EVEN THE BAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE IF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO REACH NEAR GALE. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE CLOSE...BUT MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. BECAUSE OF THIS...WINDS WERE CAPPED BELOW GALE THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS MAY DROP OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HOWEVER...THE SWELL THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD MAINTAIN SEAS WELL ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY
THANKSGIVING...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
THE THICKEST CLOUDS NOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. FARTHER
WEST...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BANKED UP AGAINST THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.

SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.

WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERABLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY THANKSGIVING BEFORE A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH
EXISTING FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THERE. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.

SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.

WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED AT 11 AM. WANT TO
GET ONE MORE ROUND OF BUOY REPORTS TO BE SURE. WINDS ARE NOT THE
CONCERN AT THIS POINT...BUT THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERABLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/RLG/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211501
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1001 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES ON MON...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PULLING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXIT
THE COAST SHORTLY. SATELLITE SHOWED LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS...WITH PATCHES OF THICKER HIGH
CLOUD STREAKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE 12Z RAOB WAS
DRY IN THE LOW LAYERS AT KGYX...BUT THE RAOBS FROM KCAR...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT KALB...SHOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH SUGGESTS BROKEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. I MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESONET.

PREV DISC...
AS SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...PRES GRAD
WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL W-NW FLOW WILL DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
EFFECTS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
IN THE MTNS. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP THING PARTY-MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...IN THE MID-UPPR 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE CLOSER AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RAD COOLING...BUT AIRMASS REMAINS MILD...AND
ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE COOLER...THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP THE
AIR MASS ON MONDAY.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THE REGION OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY
     BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM WILL THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SUNDAY SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND SLOWLY RETREAT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIG AT KLEB WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO
MVFR TO IFR IN ANY SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...TREND OF WINDS AND SEAS IS DOWNWARD WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT DROPPED WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCA CRITERIA FOR WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 211006
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
506 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY`S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE HIGH MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
...THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
THEN A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...PRES GRAD WILL SLACKEN
AND WINDS WILL W-NW FLOW WILL DROP OFF. UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING IN THE MTNS.
ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP THING PARTY-MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...IN THE MID-UPPR 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE CLOSER AND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME RAD COOLING...BUT AIRMASS REMAINS MILD...AND
ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE COOLER...THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP THE
AIR MASS ON MONDAY.  CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THE REGION OUT A BIT FOR THURSDAY
...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
MINIMAL CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM WILL THEN MOVE UP THE COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SUNDAY SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND SLOWLY RETREAT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIG AT KLEB WILL LIFT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOWERING TO
MVFR TO IFR IN ANY SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXTENDED SCA THRU 11 AM...MAINLY DUE TO SWELL

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCA CRITERIA FOR WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY THANKSGIVING BEFORE A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT 08Z...
FOR NOW. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA/NJ ON
THE IR SATELLITE LOOP...HEADING E IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY...THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TODAY...WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR.

WITH THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...UPWARDS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.

SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SHREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.

WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL REPORTING SWELLS AT 5-6 FT. ONLY KEPT
IT GOING FOR THE MORNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY VEER TO MORE NW-N LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERBLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/RLG/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210850
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT 08Z...
FOR NOW. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA/NJ ON
THE IR SATELLITE LOOP...HEADING E IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY...THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TODAY...WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR.

WITH THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...UPWARDS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE.  THIS
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY
FORECAST.

MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST.  WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS
GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL.  GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON
NIGHT.  GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT.  NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT
DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE
POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT.

TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH
CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST.  WE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO
FRI.  BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST.

MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN.  VFR NORTH OF THE
PIKE.

TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL REPORTING SWELLS AT 5-6 FT. ONLY KEPT
IT GOING FOR THE MORNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY VEER TO MORE NW-N LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES BUT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE.  LOWERED
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/RLG

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210430
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1130 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CROSSING THE
REGION IN THE UPPER LEVEL W FLOW AT 04Z. NOTING MORE CIRRUS CLOUDS
WORKING OUT OF PA/OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL WORK E OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES
WILL WORK OUT OF WV/MD/VA REGION INTO NY STATE BY SAT MORNING.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISH ACROSS MANY LOWLAND AREAS...WITH SOME WIND STILL
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPTS DOWN TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AS
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO THE 40S AT 04Z...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ON THE
ISLANDS.

HAVE KEPT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT WILL
DEPEND UPON IF HIGH CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S /RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL/.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE.  THIS
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY
FORECAST.

MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST.  WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS
GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL.  GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON
NIGHT.  GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT.  NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT
DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE
POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT.

TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH
CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST.  WE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO
FRI.  BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VFR.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
VFR WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.

MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN.  VFR NORTH OF THE
PIKE.

TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE SMALL CRAFT ON BOTH BLOCK ISLAND AND
RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. NOTED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 3-4 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FEET. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
WILL ALSO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 06Z-07Z ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. WAVE GUIDANCE HAS
INITIALIZED HIGH SO AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WON/T DROP A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST. SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
YET.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH SUN
NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE.  LOWERED
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/RLG
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 210012
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC FCST JUST RESENDING THE PRODUCT TO
DISCONTINUE THE SCA ALG THE BAYS


UPDATE;
COMPLETELY UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING SINCE IT IS MUCH TOO WARM. DRY SLOT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAY
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED SC LATER TNGT OVER SRN AREAS
OTHERWISE FURTHER N AND IN THE MTNS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SCT RAIN SHWRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
STARTING TO INCREASE LATER MONDAY AROUND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING LOW PRESSURE WHICH COULD LIFT
NORTH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SATURDAY EXCEPT AT LEB WHERE BRIEFLY
MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE SCA AT 7PM FOR THE BAYS...NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION;
A SCA REMAINS UP TONIGHT FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS OFF THE MID MAINE COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KGYX 202252
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
552 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE;
COMPLETELY UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING SINCE IT IS MUCH TOO WARM. DRY SLOT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAY
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED SC LATER TNGT OVER SRN AREAS
OTHERWISE FURTHER N AND IN THE MTNS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SCT RAIN SHWRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE
STARTING TO INCREASE LATER MONDAY AROUND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING LOW PRESSURE WHICH COULD LIFT
NORTH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SATURDAY EXCEPT AT LEB WHERE BRIEFLY
MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR. OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
AN SCA REMAINS UP TONIGHT FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS OFF THE MID MAINE COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MARINE
LOONG TERM...HANES

000
FXUS61 KGYX 202129
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
429 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED OUR AREA TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE OCCLUDING FRONT WHICH BROUGHT A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BRING PARTIAL
CLEARING TO COASTAL AND PIEDMONT REGIONS TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
SOME COLD POOLING ALOFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY TONIGHT WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS
ABOVE 3000 FEET...WILL BE AROUND.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO INCREASE LATER MONDAY AROUND
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING LOW PRESSURE WHICH COULD LIFT
NORTH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
PIEDMONT TONIGHT. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LATER TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
AN SCA REMAINS UP TONIGHT FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE
FRONT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 6 FT OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS OFF THE MID MAINE COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLOOMER
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET REMAINING UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ARE DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS AS
EVIDENCED IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS HAVE
PREVENTED DEWPOINTS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 50S THERE.

19Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR DRYING OUT OF THE LOWER LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT A GOOD 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW THIS MORNINGS LOWS. MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S /RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL/.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE.  THIS
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY
FORECAST.

MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST.  WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS
GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL.  GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON
NIGHT.  GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT.  NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT
DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE
POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT.

TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH
CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST.  WE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO
FRI.  BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 1230 PM COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT JUST WEST OF BOS-PVD LINE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD WITH VFR /CIGS 035-050/ BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21Z-22Z.

TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS FROM 06Z-12Z SLIPPING OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO MHT AND NEARBY TERMINALS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
VFR WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.

MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN.  VFR NORTH OF THE
PIKE.

TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD
AIR ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED HIGH SO AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WON/T DROP A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST. SO HAVE
OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT YET.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH SUN
NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE.  LOWERED
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET REMAINING UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ARE DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS AS
EVIDENCED IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS HAVE
PREVENTED DEWPOINTS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 50S THERE.

19Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR DRYING OUT OF THE LOWER LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT A GOOD 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW THIS MORNINGS LOWS. MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S /RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL/.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 1230 PM COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT JUST WEST OF BOS-PVD LINE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD WITH VFR /CIGS 035-050/ BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21Z-22Z.

TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS FROM 06Z-12Z SLIPPING OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO MHT AND NEARBY TERMINALS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
VFR WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD
AIR ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED HIGH SO AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WON/T DROP A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST. SO HAVE
OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT YET.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201738
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1238 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LINGERING ON THE OUTER CAPE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NANTUCKET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CAPE...SOUTH COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE ISLANDS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THEY
SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS
OF 1730Z. IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY
HIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO DROP WEST OF WORCESTER. AS
THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL START DROPPING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 1230 PM COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT JUST WEST OF BOS-PVD LINE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD WITH VFR /CIGS 035-050/ BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21Z-22Z.

TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS FROM 06Z-12Z SLIPPING OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO MHT AND NEARBY TERMINALS.

SAT AND SAT EVENING...
VFR WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD - UPDATED 1237 PM
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201730
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1230 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LINGERING ON THE OUTER CAPE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NANTUCKET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CAPE...SOUTH COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE ISLANDS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THEY
SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS
OF 1730Z. IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY
HIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO DROP WEST OF WORCESTER. AS
THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL START DROPPING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD FRONT AT 15Z WAS FROM MHT/ORH/IJD AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. EXPECT WIND
SHIFT AT PVD AROUND 16Z...BOS 16-17Z AND THEN ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET 17-18Z. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
TIL ABOUT 21Z...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT
CIGS FROM 025-035.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201512
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AT 15Z. THERE IS ANOTHER FINE LINE OF SHOWERS FROM LOWELL MA TO
PUTNAM CT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS IN BETWEEN THESE
LINES OF SHOWERS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE EDITED BOTH SKY AND
POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO
LAST LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND APPEARS
TO BE FROM JAFFREY NH TO WORCESTER MA TO WILLIMANTIC CT AT 15Z.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OPPOSED
TO 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT TO W AND MAY
BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD FRONT AT 15Z WAS FROM MHT/ORH/IJD AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. EXPECT WIND
SHIFT AT PVD AROUND 16Z...BOS 16-17Z AND THEN ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET 17-18Z. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
TIL ABOUT 21Z...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT
CIGS FROM 025-035.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD - UPDATED 1011 AM
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201503
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AT 15Z. THERE IS ANOTHER FINE LINE OF SHOWERS FROM LOWELL MA TO
PUTNAM CT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS IN BETWEEN THESE
LINES OF SHOWERS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE EDITED BOTH SKY AND
POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO
LAST LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND APPEARS
TO BE FROM JAFFREY NH TO WORCESTER MA TO WILLIMANTIC CT AT 15Z.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OPPOSED
TO 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT TO W AND MAY
BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CT VALLEY AS OF 11Z. SCT TSTMS REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER S ACROSS LONG ISLAND...BUT COULD GET AS FAR N AS
KPVD/KBOS 13Z-17Z. KEPT MENTION OF CB GROUP IN ALL BUT KBAF/KBDL/KMHT
TAFS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO/FM GROUP
FOR TSTMS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING. EXPECT PERIOD OF IFR AS
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND IT. CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR ALONG COAST AND MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN
TAFS...ESPECIALLY KFMH/KHYA/KACK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT KBOS WILL LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND SHIFT TO W/NW KBDL 14Z...
KBOS/KPVD/KMHT 18Z- 19Z AND KACK 20-22Z. BRIEF 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
826 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AT
13Z. BASED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. S-SE WINDS GUSTING TO
20 KTS ALONG THE S COAST.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO
LAST LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AT 13Z MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE S AND E COASTS THIS MORNING...AND MAY GET A
BIT HIGHER IN ANY TSTMS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OPPOSED TO 50S TO NEAR 60
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE PRECIP END BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY...HEADING TO THE E COAST POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT TO W AND MAY BE GUSTY WITH
SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CT VALLEY AS OF 11Z. SCT TSTMS REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER S ACROSS LONG ISLAND...BUT COULD GET AS FAR N AS
KPVD/KBOS 13Z-17Z. KEPT MENTION OF CB GROUP IN ALL BUT KBAF/KBDL/KMHT
TAFS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO/FM GROUP
FOR TSTMS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING. EXPECT PERIOD OF IFR AS
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND IT. CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR ALONG COAST AND MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN
TAFS...ESPECIALLY KFMH/KHYA/KACK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT KBOS WILL LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND SHIFT TO W/NW KBDL 14Z...
KBOS/KPVD/KMHT 18Z- 19Z AND KACK 20-22Z. BRIEF 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
611 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AT 09Z. NOTED A QUICK TSTM OVER CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH
CG LTNG IN THAT REGION...AS WELL AS ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
MOVING OUT OF NYC AREA INTO SW CT. VERY WIDE TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RATHER BALMY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY
MORNING. EXAMPLE...TEMP JUMPED FROM 54 TO 62 IN AN HOUR AT KHFD
/08Z-09Z/...WHILE HOLDING AT 48 AT KBED. S-SE WINDS STARTING TO PICK
UP ALONG THE S COAST.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S.  HOWEVER...NOTING THE RATHER
THIN BAND ON RADAR AT 09Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO LAST
LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS JUMPING TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AFTER SUNRISE WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AS WELL
AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST THIS MORNING...AND MAY GET A BIT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. NOTED PEAK WINDS OF 32 AND 34 KT AT KAQW /N ADAMS/ AND
KDDH /SW VT/...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH THIS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE PRECIP END BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY...HEADING TO THE E COAST BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AND MAY BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CT VALLEY AS OF 11Z. SCT TSTMS REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER S ACROSS LONG ISLAND...BUT COULD GET AS FAR N AS
KPVD/KBOS 13Z-17Z. KEPT MENTION OF CB GROUP IN ALL BUT KBAF/KBDL/KMHT
TAFS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO/FM GROUP
FOR TSTMS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING. EXPECT PERIOD OF IFR AS
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND IT. CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR ALONG COAST AND MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN
TAFS...ESPECIALLY KFMH/KHYA/KACK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT KBOS WILL LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND SHIFT TO W/NW KBDL 14Z...
KBOS/KPVD/KMHT 18Z- 19Z AND KACK 20-22Z. BRIEF 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
611 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AT 09Z. NOTED A QUICK TSTM OVER CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH
CG LTNG IN THAT REGION...AS WELL AS ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
MOVING OUT OF NYC AREA INTO SW CT. VERY WIDE TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RATHER BALMY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY
MORNING. EXAMPLE...TEMP JUMPED FROM 54 TO 62 IN AN HOUR AT KHFD
/08Z-09Z/...WHILE HOLDING AT 48 AT KBED. S-SE WINDS STARTING TO PICK
UP ALONG THE S COAST.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S.  HOWEVER...NOTING THE RATHER
THIN BAND ON RADAR AT 09Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO LAST
LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS JUMPING TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AFTER SUNRISE WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AS WELL
AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST THIS MORNING...AND MAY GET A BIT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. NOTED PEAK WINDS OF 32 AND 34 KT AT KAQW /N ADAMS/ AND
KDDH /SW VT/...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH THIS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE PRECIP END BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY...HEADING TO THE E COAST BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AND MAY BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CT VALLEY AS OF 11Z. SCT TSTMS REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER S ACROSS LONG ISLAND...BUT COULD GET AS FAR N AS
KPVD/KBOS 13Z-17Z. KEPT MENTION OF CB GROUP IN ALL BUF KBAF/KBDL/KMHT
TAFS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO/FM GROUP
FOR TSTMS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING. EXPECT PERIOD OF IFR AS
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND IT. CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR ALONG COAST AND MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN
TAFS...ESPECIALLY KFMH/KHYA/KACK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT KBOS WILL LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND SHIFT TO W/NW KBDL 14Z...
KBOS/KPVD/KMHT 18Z- 19Z AND KACK 20-22Z. BRIEF 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200928
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AT 09Z. NOTED A QUICK TSTM OVER CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH
CG LTNG IN THAT REGION...AS WELL AS ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
MOVING OUT OF NYC AREA INTO SW CT. VERY WIDE TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RATHER BALMY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY
MORNING. EXAMPLE...TEMP JUMPED FROM 54 TO 62 IN AN HOUR AT KHFD
/08Z-09Z/...WHILE HOLDING AT 48 AT KBED. S-SE WINDS STARTING TO PICK
UP ALONG THE S COAST.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S.  HOWEVER...NOTING THE RATHER
THIN BAND ON RADAR AT 09Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO LAST
LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS JUMPING TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AFTER SUNRISE WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AS WELL
AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST THIS MORNING...AND MAY GET A BIT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. NOTED PEAK WINDS OF 32 AND 34 KT AT KAQW /N ADAMS/ AND
KDDH /SW VT/...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH THIS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE PRECIP END BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY...HEADING TO THE E COAST BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AND MAY BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND W CT AT 09Z.
STILL ISOLD-SCT TSTMS SEEN ACROSS N NJ AND NYC AREA. KEPT MENTION OF
SCT THUNDER THROUGH THIS MORNING...THOUGH A LOW RISK AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. KEPT MENTION OF CB IN THE TAF SITES AS THE SHOWERS/LOCAL
TSTMS MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

EXPECT WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W BY 16Z ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...THEN
AROUND 19Z-20Z OVER E MA. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
FROM W-E WITH THE WIND SHIFT. MAY SEE W WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KGYX 200804
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RELAXES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASES ON MONDAY...
THEN RELAXES MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND INTENSIFIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LARGE 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRACKING ENE IS THE
MAIN PLAYER IN TODAYS WEATHER. SF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL NY ATTM WILL TRACK EAST AND CROSS THE CWA IN
THE 15-21Z TIME FRAME. MODELS DOING A DECENT JON WITH PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT ANY REAL PRECIP RELATED TO WAA
HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE...AND AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
AMT TO MUCH OF ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA EARLY
DURING THE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL WITH THE FROPA...MID-MORNING TO MID-
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST PLACE WILL SEE AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
STILL THINK A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RAIN WILL SHUT DOWN RATHER QUICKLY ONCE
FRONT MOVES THRU...AND AREAS IN SRN AND CENTRAL NH AND SW ME COULD
SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET.

ALSO...COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW S WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR SO
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...WHERE SOME
MIXING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED ENTIRE BY SUNSET OR JUST
THEREAFTER...ANS THINGS DRY OUT OUT QUICKLY OUTSIDE OF THE THE
MTNS. IN THE MTNS...GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL SEE SCT SHRA/SHSN DEVELOP. ANY LIGHT ACCUMS WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD PROVIDE A RELATIVELY MILD
AND DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES RETREAT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY IN
THE WORKWEEK...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT A BIT BEFORE OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...AS A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS STORM
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE STORM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDS  WILL PERSIST THRU THIS
MORNING...BUT ONCE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THRU WILL SEE CONDS RAPIDLY
IMPROVE FROM W-E IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT KLEB/KCON...AND DURING
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT KPSM/KPWM/KAUG. AFTER THAT...VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOWERING TO
MVFR TO IFR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WINDS PICK UP BETWEEN NOW AND MIDDAY AS S-SW
FLOW INCREASES. THESE WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 45 KT AT ABOUT 2K
FT...BUT STRONG INVERSION WILL NOT ALLOW THEM TO COMPLETELY MIX
DOWN. STILL GOOD ENOUGH FOR FOR GUST TO 30 KT. ESPECIALLY DURING
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE WATERS
MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SW AND THEN W BEHIND
THE FRONT. WEST WINDS THEN PICK UP WITH SCA GUSTS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS...SO SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT FOR THE BAYS.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SCA CRITERIA FOR SEAS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/
MARINE...CEMPA/

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200737
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN TO
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME OVERCAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH 04Z. LEADING EDGE
OF SHOWERS ALSO APPROACHING THE CT VALLEY...NOTING A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KBAF AND ACROSS W MA/CT. AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY STATE AND E PA. EXPECT THIS TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NOT TOO WIDE A BAND OF SHOWERS...BUT BACK
EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY START TO APPROACH THE BERKSHIRES BY 12Z...
THOUGH WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR TIMING OF THIS. HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO SLOW TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE EXCEPT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW CG LTNG STRIKES AROUND 03Z NEAR NYC...THOUGH
THAT HAS DISSIPATED IN THE S-SW UPPER FLOW. ALSO SEE A FEW MORE
TSTMS ACROSS E PA/CENTRAL NY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT FEEL
ANY TSTMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER WILL REMAIN W OF THE REGION UNTIL AFTER
12Z.

WITH INCREASING S-SE WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALREADY SEEING TEMPS EITHER HOLDING
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. EXAMPLE...TEMP AT KTAN ROSE FROM 45 AT 03Z
TO 52 AT 04Z. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGHS COMING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DECLINING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
INDICATED IN THE K AND TOTAL INDICES /SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 AND 50
RESPECTIVELY/.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND TWICE THE
NORMAL VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON.  THEN AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC...PULLING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING AN
END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.  SHOWERS WILL ALSO START TO
DISSIPATE AFTER NOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE EVENING...BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAINFALL.  HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN TONIGHTS...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING TO AROUND 3-4KFT...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS
DOWN TO MVFR-IFR. CIGS/VSBYS DOWN TO LIFR AT KORH AT 05Z. LIGHT
SHOWERS STARTING TO MOVE INTO CT VALLEY AT 04Z BUT NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MAY NOT QUITE REACH CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...
LINE OF SHOWERS /SOME HEAVY/ MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDER. THUS INSERTED CB
INTO THE TAFS 12Z- 15Z BDL/BAF TO 15Z-18Z ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...TIMING ROUGHLY 16Z-18Z BDL/BAF TO 18Z-21Z ALL OTHER
TERMINALS.

SAT...VFR. WNW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...S-SE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. NOTING SEAS UP TO 5 FT AT BUOY 025 S OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND.
ALSO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD SLOWLY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AROUND NOON TIME. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF ANY HIGHER GUSTS THAT MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.  COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SEAS
4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS ARE LIKELY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS.  WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS.  NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND NOW.

SAT...EARLY SCA CONDS WITH W/NW G25 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE PROVIDENCE NOAA ALL-HAZARDS RADIO TRANSMITTER HAS BEEN RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200458
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1155 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN TO
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY REMAIN
UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME OVERCAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH 04Z. LEADING EDGE
OF SHOWERS ALSO APPROACHING THE CT VALLEY...NOTING A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KBAF AND ACROSS W MA/CT. AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY STATE AND E PA. EXPECT THIS TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NOT TOO WIDE A BAND OF SHOWERS...BUT BACK
EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY START TO APPROACH THE BERKSHIRES BY 12Z...
THOUGH WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR TIMING OF THIS. HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO SLOW TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE EXCEPT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW CG LTNG STRIKES AROUND 03Z NEAR NYC...THOUGH
THAT HAS DISSIPATED IN THE S-SW UPPER FLOW. ALSO SEE A FEW MORE
TSTMS ACROSS E PA/CENTRAL NY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT FEEL
ANY TSTMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER WILL REMAIN W OF THE REGION UNTIL AFTER
12Z.

WITH INCREASING S-SE WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALREADY SEEING TEMPS EITHER HOLDING
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. EXAMPLE...TEMP AT KTAN ROSE FROM 45 AT 03Z
TO 52 AT 04Z. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGHS COMING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DECLINING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
INDICATED IN THE K AND TOTAL INDICES /SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 AND 50
RESPECTIVELY/.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND TWICE THE
NORMAL VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON.  THEN AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC...PULLING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING AN
END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.  SHOWERS WILL ALSO START TO
DISSIPATE AFTER NOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE EVENING...BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAINFALL.  HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN TONIGHTS...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  SOME UPSLOPE
CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING ACROSS NW HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY AND MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY THEN DIMINISHING AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES.

SAT NIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.  MAV
TEMPS ACCEPTED.

SUN...HIGH PRES SHIFTS NE OF SNE WITH NE FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS AND
PERHAPS MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT REMAINING
DRY.  NAM/GFS TIME SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE SC DURING THE DAY.

SUN NIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL HOLD TOUGH ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE
INTO SNE.  WE SCALED BACK POPS WITH CHC CONFINED TO SW ZONES AND
JUST SCHC TO THE NORTH.

MON-TUE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING TRACK/LOCATION OF COASTAL LOW.  GFS IS A NW OUTLIER AND
WAS DISCARDED.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A BLEND
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTING A TRACK JUST OFF THE COAST.  POPS
INCREASED TO LIKELY ON MONDAY AS DEEPENING MOISTURE IN EASTERLY FLOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE AS THIS SYSTEM NOT
IN A HURRY TO LEAVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE CONUS.  PATTERN LOOKS UNSETTLED SO CANT RULE OUT MORE
SHOWERS SOMETIME DURING WED-THU TIMEFRAME BUT HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING TO AROUND 3-4KFT...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS
DOWN TO MVFR-IFR. CIGS/VSBYS DOWN TO LIFR AT KORH AT 05Z. LIGHT
SHOWERS STARTING TO MOVE INTO CT VALLEY AT 04Z BUT NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MAY NOT QUITE REACH CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...
LINE OF SHOWERS /SOME HEAVY/ MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDER. THUS INSERTED CB
INTO THE TAFS 12Z- 15Z BDL/BAF TO 15Z-18Z ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...TIMING ROUGHLY 16Z-18Z BDL/BAF TO 18Z-21Z ALL OTHER
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT...VFR. WNW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

SUN...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY CT
VALLEY...THEN NE FLOW MVFR CIG DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND AREAS OF RAIN.

TUE...MVFR MAY LINGER IN NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...S-SE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. NOTING SEAS UP TO 5 FT AT BUOY 025 S OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND.
ALSO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD SLOWLY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AROUND NOON TIME. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF ANY HIGHER GUSTS THAT MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.  COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SEAS
4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS ARE LIKELY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS.  WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS.  NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND NOW.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT...EARLY SCA CONDS WITH W/NW G25 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUN...NE FLOW DEVELOPING BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 20 KT.

MON-MON NIGHT...INCREASING NE WINDS TO SCA LEVELS MON INTO MON NIGHT
WITH LOW PROB OF MARGINAL GALE.

TUE...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE
COASTAL LOW WILL BE.  FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST
DIMINISHING N/NE WINDS BUT SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE PROVIDENCE NOAA ALL-HAZARDS RADIO TRANSMITTER HAS BEEN RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/RLG
EQUIPMENT...