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000
FXUS61 KPHI 212030
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER CANADA`S MARITIME
PROVINCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 3:00 PM, TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THERE WERE SOME READINGS IN THE 40S UP IN THE POCONOS. THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR THICK CIRRUS OVER PARTS OF THE DELMARVA
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE WAS ALSO A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS
POKING DOWN OVER THE POCONO REGION.
THE CIRRUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
COAST. MEANWHILE, SOME OF THE STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE POCONO REGION INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED UP IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH INFLUENCING OUR REGION, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR SUNDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
THE 12 UTC NAM AND THE 12 UTC GFS BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. THE 12 UTC NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW THAN THE 12 UTC GFS
AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF. WE WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME
BEING.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION
FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.
HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
BUT THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, AND PROVIDE A
MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST NEVER MADE IT TO OUR ARA, AND WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH AT THIS TIME EITHER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH, THEN
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. THE WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE GUSTY IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG TOWARD MORNING IN SOME ISOLATED
AREAS, BUT WE ONLY HAVE IT IN THE RDG TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LAST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF STATES. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, THEN BEGIN
SLACKING ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY. IN FACT, AN ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR BASICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION IN CASE THIS COMES TO FRUITION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD HELP
TO INCREASE TIDE LEVELS FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. TIDE
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MORE THAN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN ORDER FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CURRENTLY, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET IN TIDAL ANOMALIES, SO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING COULD INCREASE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION/MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 211505
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
AT 10:00 AM, HIGH CLOUDS COVERED OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CIRRUS
OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED TO THIN A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ENTIRE CLOUD SHIELD DRIFTS TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, SOME
STRATOCUMULUS MAY NUDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVER SOME OF
OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ALL
IN ALL, A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN OUR
REGION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY
A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY. SO, OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG
FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT
BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME
BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH
OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY. OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK
TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO
FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY); LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF)
DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS WELL. ONCE IT STARTS,
WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.
OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210902 CCA
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERALLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING TO OUR WEST, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
WANT TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST. WE`VE ACKNOWLEDGED THIS BY
CARRYING SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THAN
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES WAS CONSISTENT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS MIXING TO H925 AND WITH THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE MAV AND MET
STAT GUIDANCE, AND SO WE WENT THAT WAY. EXPECT A FAIRLY MODEST
NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROAHCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING
SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WAS FAILING
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY
FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS MORNING ON OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, AND SHOULD LESSEN
SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT
LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER,
THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER
SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND
CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY.
OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH
IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY);
LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF) DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS
WELL. ONCE IT STARTS, WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEK. OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210854
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERALLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING TO OUR WEST, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
WANT TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST. WE`VE ACKNOWLEDGED THIS BY
CARRYING SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THAN
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES WAS CONSISTENT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS MIXING TO H925 AND WITH THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE MAV AND MET
STAT GUIDANCE, AND SO WE WENT THAT WAY. EXPECT A FAIRLY MODEST
NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROAHCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING
SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WAS FAILING
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY
FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS MORNING ON OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, AND SHOULD LESSEN
SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT
LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER,
THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER
SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND
CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY.
OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH
IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY);
LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF) DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS
WELL. ONCE IT STARTS, WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEK. OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ452>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210401
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1101 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS,
ALTHOUGH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE WARMER WATER WILL TEMPER
THIS SOME. LOW TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS
INTO THE 30S SEEM LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP WE
RAISED THEM A LITTLE. MIN TEMPS ALSO WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY AROUND
PHILADELPHIA AND SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 40 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DELISI/MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210050
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
750 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. LOW
TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS INTO THE 30S
SEEM LIKELY TO OCCUR. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY AROUND
PHILADELPHIA AND SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 40 OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 202015
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANY CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TOO.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO THE FCST
LOWS IN THE 30S LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.TIDES...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201712
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1212 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOW
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE FRONT HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND RAPID CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
IN ITS WAKE. PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE JUST UNDER 5 FT AT BUOY 009 AROUND NOON. HOWEVER, WINDS
WERE STILL GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER 25
KT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM FOR BOTH THE OCEAN AND THE
BAY. AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
LATER TODAY AND WE WILL REEVALUATE THE SCA AS TIME GOES ON.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE
COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER/
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201305
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MOVES
GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE FRONT HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND RAPID CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
IN ITS WAKE. PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE WATER
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/
SHORT TERM...O`HARA/
LONG TERM...STAUBER/
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200946
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MOVES
GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW JERSEY AT
0830Z...WAS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REFLECTIVITIES,
CONVECTION, AND RAIN AMOUNTS WERE MORE GENEROUS THAN ONE WOULD
HAVE THOUGHT FOR MID NOVEMBER, PROBABLY DUE TO THE MORE VIGOROUS
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION GENERATED BY THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE
MODEST INSTABILITY. IN ANY CASE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES OVER (MAINLY EASTERN) NEW
JERSEY WILL DRIBBLE OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE FORCING EXITS BY MID MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING WHICH
PRODUCED THE CONVECTION WAS ALREADY OUT OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS
MORNING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. MILD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT AROUND
SUNRISE, AND THEN RECOVER TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE WATER
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM...O`HARA/
LONG TERM...STAUBER/
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200830
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MOVES GRADUALLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
AT 08Z...WAS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REFLECTIVITIES,
CONVECTION, AND RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MORE GENEROUS THAN ONE
WOULD THINK FOR MID NOVEMBER, PROBABLY DUE TO THE MORE VIGOROUS
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION GENERATED BY THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE
MODEST INSTABILITY. IN ANY CASE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN, THOUGH, RAIN CHANCES (WITH
THUNDER EAST) WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL DRIBBLE OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE FORCING EXITS BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS, AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE LEAD TO
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS, ONLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MID AND
LATE MORNING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT AROUND
SUNRISE, AND THEN RECOVER TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.
PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE WATER
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM...O`HARA /
LONG TERM...STAUBER /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200709
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
209 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY AND MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY AND MAY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
FOUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS ONE...AND EVEN
MINUS TWO ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A CHANCE WILL BE KEPT IN UNTIL MORNING
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
RECENTLY IMPROVED THERE, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF LOW
CLOUDS IMPINGING ON THE HILLS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO SOUTH AND FINALLY WEST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT A FEW LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START TO LOWER AFTER THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE
ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
WERE INDICATED FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.
PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE
WATER TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE
IN WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/RPW/
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/RPW/
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200357
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1057 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY AND MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY AND MAY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
FOUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS ONE...AND EVEN
MINUS TWO ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A CHANCE WILL BE KEPT IN UNTIL MORNING
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
RECENTLY IMPROVED THERE, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF LOW
CLOUDS IMPINGING ON THE HILLS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO SOUTH AND FINALLY WEST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT A FEW LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START TO LOWER AFTER THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE
ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
WERE INDICATED FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.
PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 00Z TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS THAT SHOWED VFR CONDITIONS
AT ACY/MIV, MVFR AT PHL/ILG AND CONTINUING IFR AT ABE/RDG/TTN. A
BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH AREAS FROM PHL WESTWARD.
WITHIN THIS AREA WERE SOME TSTMS THAT WERE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO SCATTERED TO THE EAST OF THIS MAIN AREA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR S OF PHL/ACY/MIV BUT
IFR TO THE WEST OF THERE. DUE TO THESE OBSERVED CONDITIONS, THE
TAFS HAVE CONDITIONS LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. HOWEVER, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOME OF THE LOWER CIG/VSBYS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL SITES WITH IFR FCST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW FROM 09-12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI
MORNING AND AFTN WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE WIND WILL VEER
FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WE
WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAY AT THIS TIME.
AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATER SHOULD DECREASE A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA / RPW
NEAR TERM.../ O`HARA / RPW
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO / STAUBER
MARINE...IOVINO / STAUBER
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200102
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
HAVE BECOME LESS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE
CONVECTION THAT WAS EVIDENT EARLIER THIS EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
AREAS IS NOW GONE, SO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AND END TO THE RAINS
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE. WINDS WILL BE SERLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN TURN SRLY EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER FROPA WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRI MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY OVER
THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE ZONES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO TEMPERATURES FRI WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATES AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUN. I HAVE INDICATED MORE CLOUDS
FOR THE AREA AND A SLGT CHC OR CHC OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE
IS A HIGHER CHC FOR RAINS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.
PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 00Z TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS THAT SHOWED VFR CONDITIONS
AT ACY/MIV, MVFR AT PHL/ILG AND CONTINUING IFR AT ABE/RDG/TTN. A
BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH AREAS FROM PHL WESTWARD.
WITHIN THIS AREA WERE SOME TSTMS THAT WERE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO SCATTERED TO THE EAST OF THIS MAIN AREA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR S OF PHL/ACY/MIV BUT
IFR TO THE WEST OF THERE. DUE TO THESE OBSERVED CONDITIONS, THE
TAFS HAVE CONDITIONS LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. HOWEVER, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOME OF THE LOWER CIG/VSBYS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL SITES WITH IFR FCST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW FROM 09-12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI
MORNING AND AFTN WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE WIND WILL VEER
FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WE
WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAY AT THIS TIME.
AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATER SHOULD DECREASE A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/RPW
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/RPW
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO/STAUBER
MARINE...IOVINO
000
FXUS61 KPHI 192316
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND BRING SHOWERY
WEATHER TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINS BY MORNING OVER MOST
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRAWING CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AS AN SFC/UPPER LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BY TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. SRLY FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT MOIST AND WARMER AIR AND
SOME INSTABILITY TO THE MIX. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER
MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THE BEST CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AND END TO THE RAINS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE. WINDS WILL BE SERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
TURN SRLY EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER FROPA WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRI MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY OVER
THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE ZONES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO TEMPERATURES FRI WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATES AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUN. I HAVE INDICATED MORE CLOUDS
FOR THE AREA AND A SLGT CHC OR CHC OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE
IS A HIGHER CHC FOR RAINS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.
PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE 00Z TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS THAT SHOWED VFR CONDITIONS
AT ACY/MIV, MVFR AT PHL/ILG AND CONTINUING IFR AT ABE/RDG/TTN. A
BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH AREAS FROM PHL WESTWARD.
WITHIN THIS AREA WERE SOME TSTMS THAT WERE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO SCATTERED TO THE EAST OF THIS MAIN AREA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR S OF PHL/ACY/MIV BUT
IFR TO THE WEST OF THERE. DUE TO THESE OBSERVED CONDITIONS, THE
TAFS HAVE CONDITIONS LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. HOWEVER, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOME OF THE LOWER CIG/VSBYS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL SITES WITH IFR FCST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW FROM 09-12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI
MORNING AND AFTN WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE WIND WILL VEER
FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WE
WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAY AT THIS TIME.
AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATER SHOULD DECREASE A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO/STAUBER
MARINE...IOVINO
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